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1802. Russia politics: Quick View - Anti-corruption protests end in mass arrests
- Publication Date:
- 03-2017
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Politics and News Analysis
- Political Geography:
- Russia
1803. Russia/Syria/Turkey politics:Turkey and Russia pursue conflicting agendas in Syria
- Publication Date:
- 03-2017
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Politics and News Analysis
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Turkey, and Syria
1804. US/Russia politics: Never-ending story
- Publication Date:
- 04-2017
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Politics and News Analysis
- Political Geography:
- Russia and United States
1805. Russia/US politics: Risks of new nuclear arms race increasing
- Publication Date:
- 04-2017
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Politics and News Analysis
- Political Geography:
- Russia and United States
1806. Russia politics: Quick View - US and Russian positions on Syria again diverging
- Publication Date:
- 04-2017
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Politics and News Analysis
- Political Geography:
- Russia
1807. Russia politics: Quick View - Russia criticises US missile strike on Syria
- Publication Date:
- 04-2017
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Politics and News Analysis
- Political Geography:
- Russia
1808. Russia politics: Republic of fear
- Publication Date:
- 04-2017
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Politics and News Analysis
- Political Geography:
- Russia
1809. Belarus/Russia politics: Quick View - Russia releases new loans to Belarus
- Publication Date:
- 04-2017
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Politics and News Analysis
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Belarus
1810. Russia/Iran/USA politics: US strikes: assessing their impact on the Syrian conflict
- Publication Date:
- 04-2017
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Politics and News Analysis
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, and Iran
1811. Russia/Sweden politics: The putative Mr Putilov
- Publication Date:
- 04-2017
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Politics and News Analysis
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Sweden
1812. Russia politics: Quick View - Immigration remains high
- Publication Date:
- 04-2017
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Politics and News Analysis
- Political Geography:
- Russia
1813. Armenia/Russia politics: Quick View - Russia steps up support for Armenian PM
- Publication Date:
- 04-2017
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Politics and News Analysis
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Armenia
1814. Russia politics: Badgering the Witnesses
- Publication Date:
- 04-2017
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Politics and News Analysis
- Political Geography:
- Russia
1815. Japan/Russia politics: Quick View - Japan-Russia meeting signals pragmatic improvements
- Publication Date:
- 05-2017
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Politics and News Analysis
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Japan
1816. Turkey/Russia politics: Brothers in arms
- Publication Date:
- 05-2017
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Politics and News Analysis
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Turkey
1817. Russia/Turkey politics: Quick View - Erdogan visits Putin ahead of Trump meeting
- Publication Date:
- 05-2017
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Politics and News Analysis
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Turkey
1818. The Plutonium Disposition Management Agreement: Russia’s Withdrawal and the Possible Consequences
- Author:
- Debalina Ghoshal
- Publication Date:
- 04-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Council on International Policy (CIP)
- Abstract:
- InOctober2016,RussianPresidentVladmirPutin suspendedthePlutoniumDispositionManagementAgreement (PDMA) that mandated both the United States and Russia to eliminate a sufficient quantity of weapons grade plutonium. The suspension of the PDMA represents a step away toward achieving nuclear disarmament, a crucial component of the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty (NPT) under Article VI.
- Topic:
- International Security and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Global Focus
1819. Tolerating the “Intolerable Partner:” Once Shunned, Bulgaria’s United Patriots Joins the Governing Coalition
- Author:
- John R. Haines
- Publication Date:
- 05-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute
- Abstract:
- Several weeks after winning a plurality in Bulgaria’s late March parliamentary election, Prime Minister Boyko Borissov did something unprecedented: he brought the nationalist United Patriots (Obedineni Patrioti) into his coalition government. The United Patriots is an electoral alliance of three parties, the IMRO[2]-Bulgarian National Movement (VMRO-Bulgarsko Natsionalno Dvizhenie), the National Front for the Salvation of Bulgaria (Natzionalen Front za Spasenie na Bulgaria), and Attack (Attaka). Their inclusion in the coalition government has given rise to concern among Bulgaria’s NATO allies (and many Bulgarian themselves) about what the Bulgarian Socialist Party’s Korneliya Ninova called Mr. Borissov’s “floating majority, his unprincipled alliance”[3] (plavashti mnozinstva, bezprintsipni sŭyuzi). That concern is well placed for several reasons. Only a few years ago, even the nationalist IMRO-BND and NFSB excluded the radical Ataka[4] from their electoral alliance dubbed the “Patriotic Front” (Patriotichen front) because of Ataka’s positions on Russia and NATO. Even then, however, the Patriotic Front’s “nationalist profile” (natsionalisticheskiyat profil) was so far to Bulgaria’s political right to cause Mr. Borissov to exclude the Patriotic Front from his coalition government. He did so with the active encouragement of his center-right European People’s Party allies across the European Union. “Nothing against the PF, but unfortunately the things Valeri Simeonov [a PF leader, more about whom anon] proposes do not correspond to our Euro-Atlantic orientation,” said Mr. Borissov at the time.[5]
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Nationalism
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Bulgaria
1820. Birds of a Feather: As Viktor Orbán’s Cronies Unload on President Trump, Orbán Sidles Up to President Putin
- Author:
- John R. Haines
- Publication Date:
- 04-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute
- Abstract:
- The Hungarian proverb Madarat tolláról, embert barátjáról translates roughly as “You can tell a bird by its feathers, and a person by his friends.” If so, it says much about Hungarian President Viktor Orbán. Russian President Vladimir Putin was asked during a 12 April interview with Russia’s MIR television and radio network whether “relations deteriorated with Trump in office from what they were under his predecessor?” He answered, “We could say that at the working level, the degree of trust has dropped, especially in the military area. It has not improved and has probably worsened.”[1] Mr. Putin premised this appraisal with an extended dissemble about “several versions” about “the chemical attack in Syria’s Idlib province, which led to the US air strike on a Syrian air base:”
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, International Affairs, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Hungary
1821. Russia’s Evolving South Caucasus Policy Security Concerns amid Ethno-political Conflicts
- Author:
- Sergey Markedonov
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- The South Caucasus continues to be critically important to Eurasian security. The outbreak of fighting in April 2016 between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the breakaway republic of Nagorno-Karabakh introduced new uncertainty and confrontation to the region. Russia’s policies here are crucial, as they are in the region’s other ethno-political conflicts, in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Sergey Markedonov offers an insider’s perspective on the Kremlin’s involvement in the region, highlighting its security concerns and stressing that Russia is not taking a universal approach to all of the post-Soviet conflict zones. While the “Western” political and expert community often assumes that territorial revisionism is a kind of idée fixe within Russia, this is far from the case. Each situation demands an indi- vidual response from Moscow, as it weighs and pursues its own interests. This in turn explains the improbability of “Crimean situations” multiplying in the South Caucasus. The region undoubtedly harbors risks of confrontation – not only between Russia and the countries of the immediate region but also with such large powers as the US, the EU, Turkey, and Iran – but it also holds several opportunities for cooperation.
- Topic:
- International Security and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Russia
1822. Russia’s Active Campaign in Ukraine
- Author:
- Benjamin Knudsen, Alexandra Lariiciuc, and Franklin Holcomb
- Publication Date:
- 05-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- Russia has continued its destabilization campaign in Ukraine using its proxy forces and other means of subversion. The Trump Administration has indicated it is willing to support Ukraine as the Eastern European country faces Russian aggression. President Trump must act to strengthen the U.S.-Ukraine partnership and increase pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin as part of a broader campaign to deter Russian aggression globally. U.S. officials emphasized their support for Ukraine in a series of diplomatic meetings in May. U.S. President Donald Trump held separate meetings with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin in Washington on May 10 during which he reportedly stressed “Russia’s responsibility to fully implement the Minsk agreements.” This rhetoric echoes previous statements by Trump administration officials. U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said the U.S. will maintain sanctions against Russia “until Moscow reverses the actions that triggered them.”
- Topic:
- War
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Ukraine
1823. Russia’s Unrelenting Attacks On Syrian Civilians
- Author:
- Genevieve Casagrande
- Publication Date:
- 04-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- Russia’s campaign against Syrian civilians continued undeterred by the U.S. strike on April 6 in response to the Bashar al-Assad regime’s use of chemical weapons in southern Idlib. Local reports indicate Russia regularly used incendiary munitions and bunker buster munitions in Idlib and Aleppo Provinces in order to inflict mass casualties on the population in rebel-held terrain following the U.S. strike. Russian airstrikes also targeted local civilian infrastructure from April 4 - 25, including hospitals, schools, mosques, and civil defense centers across Syria. Russia continually targeted Khan Shaykhoun, the site of the regime’s chemical attack on April 4, throughout the reporting period. Furthermore, activists claimed Russia targeted a hospital and civil defense center treating those wounded in Khan Shaykhoun immediately following the regime’s sarin gas attack. The use of chemical weapons is just one of many means the pro-regime coalition has to punish anti-Assad populations in Syria. Russia remains a principal contributor to President Assad’s purposeful campaign to target Syrian civilians. The Assad regime has a long history of violence against its own people, but the advanced capabilities Russia has brought to theater have allowed the pro-regime coalition to target civilians with even greater precision.
- Topic:
- Human Rights and War
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Syria
1824. Political Relations Between Turkey and Georgia in the Post-Soviet Era
- Author:
- Fatih Mehmet Sayin and Murat Doğan
- Publication Date:
- 10-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
- Institution:
- Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
- Abstract:
- Georgia and Turkey have become important partners in the Caucasus region after the independence of Georgia in 1991. Two countries preferred to follow pro-West policies in their foreign policy against the Russian factor. They have geopolitical importance and geostrategic location for Russia throughout history. This article analyzes the foreign policies of Georgia and Turkey and examines the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Crude Oil Pipeline as a common foreign policy between them. The paper found out that this kind of project between Georgia and Turkey would make them important actors rising from the regional level to the global level in the future.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Oil, History, Bilateral Relations, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Turkey, Caucasus, Georgia, and Mediterranean
1825. Assessing Russian Impact on the Western Balkan Countries’ EU Accession: Cases of Croatia and Serbia
- Author:
- Bojana Zoric
- Publication Date:
- 10-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
- Institution:
- Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
- Abstract:
- The matter of EU enlargement to the Western Balkans has become overshadowed by pressing issues such as Brexit, the rise of the radical right, and international terrorism. Notwithstanding the pressure to address these issues accordingly, increasing tensions and ethnic outbursts across the Western Balkan region are reason enough for the European Union to devote significant attention to accession talks. This article addresses the Western Balkan countries’ Europeanization process with consideration of Russia as an external actor. By assessing the candidate countries’ progress amid EU negotiations, the article suggests that the countries’ bilateral ties with Russia have an impact on the Europeanization process which is particularly visible in Chapter 31 Foreign, security, and defense policy of the acquis communautaire. The broader geopolitical framework that comprises the multifaceted relationship between the EU and Russia is crucial for understanding the dynamics of the EU-Western Balkans-Russia triangle.
- Topic:
- International Relations, European Union, Geopolitics, and Europeanization
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Eastern Europe, and Balkans
1826. From Eastward Pivot to Greater Eurasia
- Author:
- S. Karaganov
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
- Institution:
- East View Information Services
- Abstract:
- The current stage of russia’s pivot to the east is the product of the second half of the 2000s largely as a belated economic response to the rise of asia, which opened new opportunities for the country’s devel- opment, especially for it eastern part. That rise made it possible to turn the ural region and the russian Far east from a mainly imperial burden – or a logistics base in confrontation with the West, sometimes a front line in rivalry with Japan or china – into a potential territory of develop- ment for the entire country. The expediency of making the pivot was substantiated by the fore- casted imminent economic slowdown of its main traditional partner, europe, and the deterioration of relations with europe and the West as a whole. The need for the diversification of economic ties and outside sources of development was becoming increasingly obvious. These assessments were backed up by a number of pronounced trends in the recent decade. First, these are the disintegration and crisis of the global order that the West has been trying to impose on the world since what it saw as its final victory. second is the process of relative de- globalization and the regionalization of the global economy and politics. and the third is the accelerating trend – related to the previous one – toward the politicization of economic ties, which made interdependence and dependence on one market comparatively less beneficial, if not sim- ply dangerous. Finally, the “asia for asia” trend prevailed over the “asia for the world” trend. Development in asia, especially in china, began to be increasingly oriented toward domestic and regional markets. Meanwhile, the process of spiritual and ideological emancipation of the formerly great asian civilizations, which in the past two centuries had been in colonial or semi-colonial dependence on the West, began to gain momen- tum. asian countries gained access to many achievements of the West, took advantage of the liberal global economic order that it created, became stronger, and began to claim a more appropriate place for them- selves on the world’s ideological and strategic map. The inevitability of the u.s. moving away (at least temporarily) from the role of a global hegemon, which came with a hefty price tag, became evident. Barack Obama set a course for domestic revival. however, old elites and inertia did not allow him to abandon costly and ineffective interventionism. Donald Trump strengthened the “self-isolation” trend. The u.s. has turned into a dangerous amalgam of residual intervention- ism and semi-isolationism. It is becoming increasingly evident that the u.s. seeks to create its own center, casting off some of its disadvanta- geous global commitments. a trend has evolved toward the formation of a hypothetically bipolar world through a multi-polar world with its inevitable chaos. One of its poles is based around the u.s. and the other is in eurasia. china seems to be its economic center, but the eurasian center will only materialize if Beijing does not claim the role of hegemon. however, whatever the case may be, it has turned out that once it has finally made a pivot to the east, russia has discovered many unexpected opportunities for itself.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Development, Hegemony, Empire, and Economic Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Asia
1827. Russia’s Position on Territorial Conflicts in East Asia
- Author:
- Dmitry Streltsov
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
- Institution:
- East View Information Services
- Abstract:
- ruSSiA’S poSition on territorial and border conflicts in east Asia arouses great interest. Most of these conflicts have deep roots in and are consequences of the cold War, primarily stemming from legal gaps in the system of interstate borders that is based on the San Francisco peace treaty. these conflicts include disputes over the South Kuril islands (“northern territories”), the Senkaku (Diaoyu) islands, and the tokto (takeshima) islands. in addition, there are numerous conflicts in the South china Sea (disputes over territories including the paracel and Spratly islands) that have more complicated histories and go further back into the past, including the colonial era. russia is involved in only one of east Asia’s territorial disputes, one with Japan, and is just an observer in the rest of them. russia’s line on those conflicts is very important from the point of view of its political and economic interests, which are determined by its trade and investment relations with the countries that are parties to those disputes. Many of the most acute conflicts are sovereignty disputes over islands and sea borders. essentially, they are disputes over economic con- trol of vast water areas in the east china Sea and South china Sea, which are rich in mineral and biological resources and are part of key interna- tional maritime communication lines. For russia, however, those com- munications are not as important as they are, for example, for Japan or South Korea, or even for china. russia is more reliant on the transit facilities of its eastern ports. the latter are used in shipping along the northern Sea route and in trans- portation to and from china more than they are in handling cargo transportation between east Asia and europe along the southern route passing through the Strait of Malacca. it was no accident that russia focused on that southern route in setting the agenda for the Asia- pacific economic cooperation (Apec) summit in vladivostok in 2012. As an outside observer in east Asian territorial conflicts with none of its geographical or economic interests affected by them, russia takes a more neutral position on them than countries to which such conflicts pose a direct threat of armed confrontation. the russian position is also determined by the economic develop- ment priorities of Siberia and the russian Far east as set by its “eastward turn” doctrine. Strategically speaking, russia needs good and stable eco- nomic, and hence political, relations with all key countries involved in east Asian processes of integration, processes that encompass all east Asian countries except north Korea. however, practically all east Asian countries with which russia is determined to maintain trade and investment partnership, including china, Japan, South Korea, and key Southeast Asian states such as vietnam, are embroiled in territorial or border conflicts. obviously, by siding with one of the parties to any of these conflicts, russia would jeop- ardize its relations with the other. russia cannot afford to make friends with one country by estranging another. it needs, showing the utmost discretion and delicacy, to achieve a subtle balance in its relations with various actors and to seek at least a fragile regional status quo. neither can russia ignore the fact that, by joining ad hoc blocs or coalitions formed to deal with territorial conflicts, it would risk being drawn into a conflict that might grow into war any moment.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Territorial Disputes, Military Affairs, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Asia
1828. Global Peaceful Change and Accommodation of Rising Powers: A Scholarly Perspective
- Author:
- T.V. Paul
- Publication Date:
- 07-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
- Institution:
- Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
- Abstract:
- Can the accommodation of rising powers in the international system be accomplished peacefully? Prof. Paul, in his recent publication, argued that if the established and status quo powers hold grand strategies which allow for peaceful accommodation, this is feasible. He clarifies the differences between accommodation and appeasement and the value of soft balancing, relying on institutions, economic diplomacy, and limited ententes as mechanisms for restraining the aggressive behavior of major powers. Variations in current US policies toward Russia and China are discussed. Non-accommodation of major powers as well as minor powers has major internal and external consequences. He concludes by arguing that contemporary rising powers, such as China and India, have much greater prospects of rising peacefully than previous era great powers, partially due to the opportunities offered by the globalization process. However, these states must initiate economic and developmental programs for other states, without neocolonial overtones, in order to increase global development and their own status. The discipline of IR has a special duty to encourage students and policy makers to develop strategies of peaceful transformation, rather than war, as the main mechanism of change.
- Topic:
- Globalization, Grand Strategy, Emerging Powers, and International System
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, South Asia, India, Asia, and United States of America
1829. Borders of the Central Asian countries under the international law
- Author:
- Michal Pietkiewicz
- Publication Date:
- 12-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
- Institution:
- Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
- Abstract:
- In the article the international legal status of the territory, and the territory of the state was ascertained, and the features of the legal status of a state border were identified. The main problem of the thesis is to show the causes of conflicts in determining the borders of the Central Asian states from the perspective of Russian scholars. The main issues of regulating international relations in the sphere of the delimitation of state borders under the international law in Central Asia are outlined.
- Topic:
- International Law, Borders, State, and Territory
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Central Asia
1830. Ethnicity and ethnicities Part II
- Author:
- Shokhrat Kadyrov, Olga Brusina, and Isaac Scarborough
- Publication Date:
- 09-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
- Institution:
- Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
- Abstract:
- Scientific paradigm changes are frequently accompanied by the reconsideration of central terms and ideas. This article demonstrates how this process is currently underway in Russian anthropological studies [narodovedenie] as part of a broader move away from ethnography to theoretical ethnology. The article also shows lines of succession and divergence between various paradigms currently dominant in Russian anthropology, including primordialism and constructivism, and presents the author’s vision of a definition of “ethnicity”, instruments needed to study ethnicities, the nature of “ethnicity,” the underlying axioms on which ethnicities are conceptualized. An initial attempt has been made in the article to outline the central positions that would provide for a principally new ethnological paradigm by way of a new definition of the phenomenon of ethnicity.
- Topic:
- Ethnicity, Anthropology, and Constructivism
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Eurasia
1831. Russian direction in the paradiplomacy of Polish local governments
- Author:
- Wojciech Tomasz Modzelewski
- Publication Date:
- 03-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
- Institution:
- Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
- Abstract:
- Foreign activity (paradiplomacy) of local governments is one of the elements of Polish foreign policy and plays a special, positive role in the process of Polish integration with the European Union. This paper presents the results of the investigations concerning foreign activity of Polish local and regional governments with Russia. In particular, there is intensive cooperation with the Kaliningrad region, the only region bordering Poland and refers to the neighboring provinces of Warmia and Mazury and Pomorskie. Studies have shown, however, that 11 out of the 16 Polish provinces signed agreements with other regions of Russia and only 2 have no cooperation.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Government, International Cooperation, and Partnerships
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, and Poland
1832. A 100-million-dollar fine for Russia's doping policy? A billion-dollar penalty would be more correct!
- Author:
- Wolfgang Maennig and Helmut Grothe
- Publication Date:
- 11-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg
- Abstract:
- The so-called McLaren Report disclosed the Russian state-subsidized doping and systematic concealment of positive doping samples, up to and including the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi, Russia. As a result, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) and international sports federations excluded a large proportion of the Russian athletes from the 2016 Summer Olympics in Rio, Brazil. The IOC is still looking for a solution for the 2018 Winter Olympics in South Korea, which will begin in just a few weeks. In addition to the ban of individual Russian athletes, due to a follow-up examination of doping samples, the question remains as to how the Russian sports leadership could be appropriately prosecuted for fraud. One of the proposals is to impose a fine of €100 million on Russia (Simeoni 2017). Such a proposal involves at least two problems. On one hand, the legal basis for such a punishment was unclear for a long time. Until recently, international doping law provided for penalties against specific individual offenders, for example, in the form of competition bans, which are usually temporary, in cases where athletes have been found guilty of doping for the first time. To impose fines, especially on entire national associations, was rather difficult. After all, some of the international sports federations excluded parts of the Russian Olympic team from Rio in 2016 but allowed the remaining Russian athletes to the games only on the condition that the competing Russian Federation bore all the investigation costs.
- Topic:
- Economics, Sports, Olympics, and Drugs
- Political Geography:
- Russia
1833. Honing Cyber Attribution
- Author:
- Justin Key Canfil
- Publication Date:
- 07-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of International Affairs
- Institution:
- School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
- Abstract:
- Concerns about state-directed cyber intrusions have grown increasingly prevalent in recent years. The idea that state principals can obfuscate their involvement in such attacks by delegating operational tasks to non-state agents poses a particularly significant challenge to international enforcement and remedies. Gaps in international law, coupled with obstacles to detection in such cases, may make it more difficult to bring sponsoring states to justice. This paper offers a roadmap for assessing the propensity of states to delegate to non-state actors and correct for false positives in standard (typically more technical) cyber attack attribution methods. I conclude that the conditions under which attacks are likely to have been backed by sponsoring states occupy a much narrower window than conventional wisdom suggests, and that the universe of transgressors can be identified when standard indicators overlap with specific conditions.
- Topic:
- Security, Elections, Cybersecurity, and Election Interference
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, and North Am
1834. End Times Diplomacy at the UN?
- Author:
- Richard Gowan
- Publication Date:
- 07-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of International Affairs
- Institution:
- School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
- Abstract:
- In her last days at the UN, Samantha Power practiced "end times diplomacy" in anticipation of President Trump but Nikki Haley has followed Power's diplomatic playbook.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, and North America
1835. The Authoritarian Roots of Russian Expansionism
- Author:
- Sean Clark
- Publication Date:
- 11-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for the Study of Security and Development, Dalhousie University
- Abstract:
- The central contention here is that Russia's outbursts of international hostility are a reflection of the very nature of the Putin regime. They can be explained as the conscious choice of a regime striving to maintain power, decisions conditioned in turn by deep-seated pathologies that limit the Kremlin's room for maneuver. What follows is a discussion of these constraints, as well as consideration how best to deal with them.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Territorial Disputes, Authoritarianism, and Legitimacy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, Eastern Europe, and Crimea
1836. Feeling “at Home”: Mechanisms of Social Selection and Homogenization in St. Petersburgian Music Clubs and DJ Bars | « Être comme chez soi » Mécanismes de tri et homogénéisation sociale dans les clubs et bars DJ de Saint-Pétersbourg
- Author:
- Anna Zaytseva
- Publication Date:
- 03-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cultures & Conflits
- Institution:
- Cultures & Conflits
- Abstract:
- Venues for new music styles, some clubs and DJ bars in St.-Petersburg take form as places for gathering for certain milieus. To secure and retain the loyalty of regular patrons, and by extension to ensure the sustainability of the establishment, clubs tenders implement different mechanisms of social homogenization to keep out random or unwelcome visitors. Common techniques include face control, being in hidden locations, the limited diffusion of information, the specificity of music and ambiance, and carelessness for universal standards of service and welcoming. Though they don’t fully constitute exclusive communities, these venues explicitly value an extended social grouping and a sense of secure domesticity which facilitates spontaneous and informal interactions between strangers. From a relative anonymity to a familiarity between “close relations,” a whole range of intermediary situations become possible, thus enabling the emergence of rather new forms of sociability in a post-soviet metropolis.
- Topic:
- Nightlife and Social Groups
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Eurasia
1837. A Conservative’s Prescriptive Policy Checklist: U.S. Foreign Policies in the Next Four Years to Shape a New World Order
- Author:
- Robert D. Blackwill
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- As Donald Trump prepares to enter the presidency, many observers at home and abroad seek to anticipate the outlines of his foreign policy. This essay has a different purpose. Based on the rigorous definition of vital U.S. national interests that follows immediately below, [1] it proposes a prescriptive checklist of U.S. policy steps that would strengthen the domestic base of American external actions; reinforce the U.S. alliance systems in Asia and Europe; meet the Chinese and Russian challenges, while improving the quality of diplomatic exchanges with Beijing and Moscow; reshape U.S. trade policy; gradually pivot from the Middle East to Asia (but not from Europe); maintain the nuclear agreement with Iran; and confront international terrorism more aggressively, but with minimal U.S. boots on the ground in ungoverned areas and without nation building. This list attempts to take into account the President-elect’s public statements on foreign policy, but does not assume that all of them will be manifested after January 20. It rests squarely on the application of the Nixon/Kissinger national interest driven conceptual framework that refined American foreign policy five decades ago to current U.S. challenges and opportunities.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Politics, Terrorism, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Middle East, North Africa, North America, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America
1838. Arctic Imperatives: Reinforcing U.S. Strategy on America’s Fourth Coast
- Author:
- Thad W. Allen, Christine Todd Whitman, and Esther Brimmer
- Publication Date:
- 03-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- "The United States, through Alaska, is a significant Arctic nation with strategic, economic, and scientific interests," asserts a new Council on Foreign Relations-sponsored (CFR) Independent Task Force report, Arctic Imperatives: Reinforcing U.S. Strategy on America's Fourth Coast. With the Arctic "warming at twice the rate as the rest of the planet" and melting sea ice opening up this resource-rich region to new trade routes and commercial activities, the report stresses that "the United States needs to increase its strategic commitment to the region or risk leaving its interests unprotected." The report notes that while Russia has numerous ice-breaking vessels and China is building a third icebreaker, the United States owns only two operational icebreaking ships—one heavy icebreaker and one medium-weight icebreaker—to serve both the Arctic and the Antarctic. Asserting that "icebreakers are a national capacity" required for a range of maritime missions to support U.S. security, economic, and commercial needs, the Task Force recommends that the United States fund and build additional icebreakers. The report also finds that the United States needs greater investment in Alaskan infrastructure, including deepwater ports, roads, and reliable telecommunications, to support economic development and a sustained security presence in the region. Currently, "almost no marine infrastructure is in place within the U.S. maritime Arctic."
- Topic:
- Climate Change, International Trade and Finance, Infrastructure, Hegemony, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, Asia, North America, Arctic, and United States of America
1839. Policy and Legislative Challenges to Non-Discrimination, Minority Protection and Diversity Issues in Ukraine
- Author:
- Iryna Solonenko
- Publication Date:
- 12-2017
- Content Type:
- Case Study
- Institution:
- European Centre for Minority Issues
- Abstract:
- Ukraine is a country populated by many national groups. As recorded in the 2001 census, the main national groups2 living in Ukraine (apart from Ukrainians, which constitute the majority) include: - Russians 8,334,100 (17.3%) - Belarusians 275,800 (0.6%) - Moldovans 258,600 (0.5%) - Crimean Tatars 248,200 (0.5%) - Bulgarians 204,600 (0.4%). Ukraine also has smaller populations of Polish, Jewish, Romanian, Armenian, Hungarian, and other groups; altogether 100 different national groups according to the census. In some territories of Ukraine national minorities live so compactly that in some settlements (towns or villages) they comprise the majority or over one-third of the population. This is the case in the Transcarpathian, Chernivtsi, and Odesa oblasts (regions), as well as in Crimean Autonomous Republic, which was annexed by Russia in March 2014. As in many countries, ethnic and linguistic borders do not necessarily align in Ukraine: many of those who think of themselves as belonging to certain national groups (as reported by 2001 census), speak another language. Thus, although 4.6% of the Ukrainian population reported they belonged to a national group other than Ukrainian or Russian, only 2.9% named a language other than Ukrainian or Russian as their native language. Only 0.1% of them considered Ukrainian to be their native language. Between 1% and 89% of them (depending on ethnicity) consider Russian to be their native language. For instance, among Hungarians this share is 1% and among Greeks it is up to 89%. While 17% of the Ukrainian population said they were of Russian ethnic affiliation, 26.6% named Russian as their native language, indicating that a share of people who consider themselves to be of non-Russian ethnic affiliation regard Russian as their native language.
- Topic:
- Nationalism, Minorities, Ethnicity, and Language
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Crimea
1840. Radicalization Among Muslim Minorities and State Response to Terrorism : Comparative Analysis of Britain and Russia
- Author:
- Utkur Yakhsiboev
- Publication Date:
- 11-2017
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- European Centre for Minority Issues
- Abstract:
- This working paper is a comparative analysis of Muslim communities in the UK and Russia. Radicalization as a process and the factors for radicalization among Muslim communities in both countries are analyzed to detect the similarities and differences. Both states’ engagement in hard-line policies to tackle Islamic terrorism increases the use of undemocratic measures enhanced by the legal system of each state. Those measures are counter-productive; the social movement theory and the rational choice theory are used to emphasize that the radicalization leading to violence is a political movement intertwined with Islam.
- Topic:
- Religion, Minorities, Radicalization, Discrimination, and Violence
- Political Geography:
- Britain, Russia, and Europe
1841. Beyond NORAD and Modernization to North American Defence Evolution
- Author:
- Andrea Charron and James Fergusson
- Publication Date:
- 05-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
- Abstract:
- While most attention on NORAD and North American defence cooperation is focused on the modernization of the North Warning System (NWS), significant developments have occurred that suggest modernization will be accompanied by significant evolutionary changes to the Command. The new threat environment, centered upon Russian behaviour in Crimea, Ukraine and Syria, a new Russian strategic doctrine, and a new generation of advanced Russian long-range cruise missiles dictate not only layered, multi-sensor early warning system, but also changes in NORAD command arrangements. In addition, the maritime component of the cruise missile threat, alongside continuing concerns of terrorists employing freighters as cruise missile platforms, raise the question whether NORAD should evolve into a binational air-maritime defence command. These considerations are central to the ongoing Evolution of North American Defence (EVONAD) study, emanating from the Canada-US Permanent Joint Board on Defence, under the lead of NORAD, in collaboration with the Canadian Joint Operations Command (CJOC) and US Northern Command (the tri-command structure). The final result is difficult to predict. However, it is clear that both modernization and evolution will be driven by the militaries engaged, with civilian authorities guiding the process, and the public and Canadian government not paying attention.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Regional Cooperation, Modernization, and Non-Traditional Threats
- Political Geography:
- Russia and North America
1842. Between Russia and the West: Belarus as a Challenge for European Stability and Security
- Author:
- Anna Kuleszewicz
- Publication Date:
- 12-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Polish Political Science Yearbook
- Institution:
- Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
- Abstract:
- This paper aims to explain that the stable situation of Belarus is important for Western Europe and why any fluctuations may present a challenge for European integrity and stability. Belarus, since the beginning of its independence in 1991 seems to show a great willingness to cooperate closely with Russia, claiming Western Europe and NATO as a potential enemy. In reality, the Belarusian position is much more complicated and ambiguous. Despite it’s close military cooperation with Russia, different tensions between Minsk and Moscow regularly happen and Belarusian authorities are still looking for new foreign partners and new energy suppliers (what was clearly visible in the last months of 2016 and the first period of 2017). Russia, old Belarusian partner, may actually even pose a threat for Belarus, so the country’s authorities have a hard challenge to maintain its stability. Western countries may be open for a new chapter of cooperation with Minsk but any rapid changes in Belarusian foreign preferences may result in unpredictable results and Moscow reaction that – in turn – would be very challenging for the whole European stability and security
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Russia
1843. A Russian Perspective on the Impact of Sanctions
- Author:
- Alexander Gabuev
- Publication Date:
- 08-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
- Abstract:
- The situation on the Korean Peninsula is moving in a dangerous direction. In order to affect the behavior of the North Korean regime and change its calculations, ultimately forcing Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear and missiles programs, the international community has imposed a set of tough economic sanctions. The recent set of sanctions was codified in the UN Security Council Resolution 2321. So far, the impact of these and other sanctions in order to change the DPRK’s actions appears to be limited. Russia is one of the active players on the Korean Peninsula. A geographical neighbor of the DPRK and a former Cold War ally, Russia is engaged in looking for solutions to the North Korean nuclear problem. Still, when it comes to economic sanctions against North Korea, Moscow has an ambiguous position. Its national interests on the Korean Peninsula include prevention of nuclear tests by the DPRK, positioning Russia as one of the leaders of the international community on nonproliferation; non-expansion of the U.S. military presence on the Korean Peninsula; and growth in Russian trade with both Korean states. The sanctions envisaged in Resolution 2321 do not support most of these goals, since Russia thinks that nuclear disarmament of DPRK is impossible in principle. However, Moscow is ready to play along with the sanctions track as long as Russia maintains the appearance of a critical player.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Sanctions, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, and North Korea
1844. The Impact of Chinese National Identity on Sino-Russian Relations
- Author:
- Gilbert Rozman
- Publication Date:
- 08-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
- Institution:
- Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
- Abstract:
- When we think of national identity as a factor in China’s external relations, we normally focus on Japan or, for those bolder in their thinking, the United States. Few recently have put China’s policies toward Russia in that context. After all, the Chinese and Russians are adamant that their relationship eschews ideology or any other sign of national identity in favor of pure realpolitik. This paper takes exception to that interpretation, arguing that it would be difficult to understand the Sino-Russian relationship without paying close heed to the identity factor, not just from the Russian side, but seen in China’s views of Russia. Moreover, in the mid-2010s this factor has intensified, now favoring a closer relationship.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Ideology, and Identity
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Eurasia, and Asia
1845. A Way Ahead With Russia
- Author:
- Chris Westdal
- Publication Date:
- 04-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
- Abstract:
- Canada and Russia are on speaking terms again. Our government has abandoned Stephen Harper’s policy of vocal disdain and the attempted isolation of Russia. We stand against Russian “interference” in Ukraine but, in the words of Global Affairs Minister, Stephane Dion, “the more we disagree, the more we have to discuss.” This paper describes the setting of Canada-Russia re-engagement in terms of current tension in East-West, NATO-Russia relations and of heightened Canadian foreign policy aspiration; rehearses the case for earnest, long-term Western and Canadian engagement, with investment of senior attention and talent; cautions that, though a bit of spring has sprung, there is a lot of ice to thaw, as bilateral sanctions are likely to be lifted only in step with allies and the implementation, halting at best, of the Minsk peace plan; assesses Russia’s vulnerabilities and the record of its interventions in Georgia, Ukraine and Syria; recommends active Canadian support, by all means, for Ukrainian-Russian reconciliation and for a better fence, a “mending wall” between Russia and NATO; and suggests formats and first steps toward the normalization of bilateral and multilateral relations with our Arctic neighbour.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Cooperation, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Canada
1846. International Affairs
- Author:
- Len Hoffman
- Publication Date:
- 12-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East View Information Services
- Abstract:
- Annual meeting of Russian federation ambassadors and permanent envoys
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Russia
1847. Russia-U.S. Relations After the Election: “We Will Be Ready for a New Start”
- Author:
- S Ryabkov
- Publication Date:
- 12-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East View Information Services
- Abstract:
- Russia-U.S. Relations After the Election
- Topic:
- International Cooperation and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Russia and America
1848. Relations Between Russia and Europe: No Simple Solutions in Sight
- Author:
- S. Karaganov
- Publication Date:
- 12-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East View Information Services
- Abstract:
- The Crisis between Russia and the West is associated with Crimea and Russia’s actions in Donbass and Ukraine; in fact, it has deeper roots while its long-term repercussions might prove to be much graver than expect- ed. a large-scale armed clash cannot be excluded even if this possibility is gradually reducing; we should be ready to political confrontation and contracted economic ties. Today, Europe is facing an even greater threat: a civilizational divorce with Russia.
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Europe
1849. Diplomatic Experience That Never Fades
- Author:
- A. Yakovenko
- Publication Date:
- 12-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East View Information Services
- Abstract:
- multiplied by intuition is behind many discoveries. This fully applies to British historian Prof. Gabriel Gorodetsky* who has written numerous scholarly works including The Precarious Truce: Anglo-Soviet Relations, 1924-1927, Stafford Cripps’ Mission to Moscow, 1940-1942, etc. Prof. Gorodetsky came across the diaries of Ivan Maisky,** soviet ambassador to London while preparing official Soviet-Israeli documents for publication and was immediately interested. Before him few historians had paid attention to this unique historical document. in fact, Stalin never encouraged officials to keep diaries; this explains why they are few and far between in soviet archives.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Russia
1850. Russia/Syria politics: The withdrawal that wasn't
- Publication Date:
- 05-2016
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Politics and News Analysis
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Syria
1851. Russia: Political and institutional effectiveness
- Publication Date:
- 06-2016
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Politics, Background, Forecast, and Political and institutional effectiveness
- Political Geography:
- Russia
1852. Russia/China politics: Quick View - Putin seeks to put flesh on the bones o
- Publication Date:
- 06-2016
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Politics and News Analysis
- Political Geography:
- Russia and China
1853. Russia: Political forces at a glance
- Publication Date:
- 06-2016
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Politics, Summary, Background, and Political forces at a glance
- Political Geography:
- Russia
1854. Russia politics: Support falls for ruling United Russia party
- Publication Date:
- 06-2016
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Politics and News Analysis
- Political Geography:
- Russia
1855. Russia politics: United Russia, divided Putin
- Publication Date:
- 06-2016
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Politics and News Analysis
- Political Geography:
- Russia
1856. Russia: Key figures
- Publication Date:
- 06-2016
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Politics, Background, Forecast, and Key players to watch
- Political Geography:
- Russia
1857. Europe politics: "Brexit" would push Europe back into crisis
- Publication Date:
- 06-2016
- Content Type:
- Country Data and Maps
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- No abstract is available.
- Topic:
- Politics and News Analysis
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United Kingdom, Turkey, Ukraine, Moldova, Finland, Norway, Greece, France, Poland, Lithuania, Germany, Estonia, Belgium, Denmark, Serbia, Bulgaria, Romania, Macedonia, Hungary, Spain, Albania, Italy, Croatia, Switzerland, Sweden, Latvia, Netherlands, Portugal, Ireland, Iceland, Montenegro, Austria, Czech Republic, Cyprus, Slovenia, Luxembourg, Slovakia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Malta
1858. Nuclear Arms Control Choices for the Next Administration
- Author:
- Steven Pifer
- Publication Date:
- 10-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- rms control has figured on the agenda between Washington and Moscow since the 1960s. Suc- cessive U.S. administrations since that of Richard Nixon have pursued negotiated arms control arrangements to limit and reduce the number of Soviet (and Russian) nuclear weapons, to enhance strategic stability, to increase transparency and predictability, to reduce the costs of U.S. nuclear forces, and to bolster America’s non-proliferation credentials. Negotiations on arms control have proceeded in times of both good and difficult relations. At times, progress on arms control has helped drive a more positive over- all relationship between Washington and Moscow. At other times, differences over arms control and related issues have contributed to a downward slide in rela- tions. The next president will take office in January 2017, when the overall U.S.-Russia relationship is at its lowest point since the end of the Cold War.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Russia and America
1859. After The Jarabulus Offensive: How Far Will Turkey Shift Its Syria Policy?
- Author:
- Soner Cagaptay
- Publication Date:
- 09-2016
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The July 15 attempted coup, which exposed rifts within the Turkish military, coupled with the August 9 meeting between Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian president Vladimir Putin, and the Turkish incursion into Syria on August 24, appear to signal a change in trajectory for Turkey’s Syria policy. Since Erdogan’s ouster of Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu in May 2015, Turkey has already implemented some significant foreign policy shifts, including normalization with Israel and a desire to mend ties with Russia.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Civil War, Peace Studies, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Turkey, and Syria
1860. Back from the Brink Toward Restraint and Dialogue between Russia and the West
- Author:
- William Perry and Deep Cuts Commission
- Publication Date:
- 06-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- This report contains a number of bold proposals on how to better manage relations between the West and Russia in order to avert worst-case scenarios. Specifying that cooperative solutions are pos- sible without giving up on the fundamental interests of each side, it warrants a close look by officials in both Moscow and Washington.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Cooperation, International Security, International Affairs, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, America, Europe, and Global Focus
1861. Donald Trump and US-Russian relations Geopolitical Bromance or Business-as-Usual?
- Author:
- Flemming Splidsboel Hansen
- Publication Date:
- 10-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- The Russian regime is ready to re-set its troubled relationship with the USA. While hopes are high, specific expectations are lower and the Trump presidency may eventually offer Russia a smaller action space than suggested by the campaign statements. The 2016 US presidential election was unusually dramatic. Part of the drama was allegedly provided by the Russian authorities as some of their state-spon- sored hackers broke into servers of the Democratic National Committee and released compromising emails immediately prior to the July 2016 Democratic Party Convention.
- Topic:
- Elections, Geopolitics, and Key players to watchPolitics
- Political Geography:
- Russia and America
1862. With Trump, US-China relations are no longer business as usual China may stand to gain from a Trump presidency
- Author:
- Andreas Bøje Forsby
- Publication Date:
- 10-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Relations between Washington and Beijing are likely to face major change once Donald Trump takes over the White House. This DIIS Policy Brief by Andreas Bøje Forsby offers an overview of US-China relations and how they are likely to develop with Donald Trump in the Oval Office. If Trump follows through on his protectionist campaign statements, China will be targeted by economic sanctions against its export industries. In most other respects, however, the Chinese may actually come to benefit from a Trump presidency, whose ‘America First’ slogan suggests a more self-centered, even neo-isolationist US foreign policy. Most importantly, a Trump administration is unlikely to sustain key elements of the US rebalance to Asia like the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the efforts to build a strategic network of like-minded states in the region to counter the rise of China.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy, Elections, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Russia and America
1863. NEIGHBOURING AN UNPREDICTABLE RUSSIA Implications for Finland
- Author:
- Toivo Martikainen, Katri Pynnöniemi, and Sinikukka Saari
- Publication Date:
- 11-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Russia has perceived itself as a great power and has sought international acknowledgement of its status for years. The fact that Moscow regards the post-Soviet space as its sphere of ‘privileged interests’ and the sovereignty of the other post-Soviet states as subordinate to Russia’s national interests is nothing new. Likewise, Russia has persistently objected to the dominant role played by the US in world politics, and the enlargement of NATO. It has attempted to influence the security policy orientation and political choices made by post-Soviet states, and other states neighbouring Russia, such as Finland. These goals are well-established and are likely to remain fundamentally un- changed for years to come.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Affairs, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Finland
1864. State-led Nationalism In Today's Russia: Uniting The People with Conservative Values?
- Author:
- Veera Laine
- Publication Date:
- 10-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- In recent years, the Russian state has been described as becoming “more nationalistic”. In the time period encompassing the Sochi Winter Olympics, the occupation of Crimea, the war in Donbas that continues to this day, air strikes in Syria, and the state seeking new legitimacy during the deepening economic crisis in Russia, many notions have been connected to growing nationalism. But nationalism as such is an ambiguous concept. Moreover, there is hardly any state in today’s global system that could be said to be totally devoid of nationalistic argumentation. Therefore, the way in which the Russian state leadership is using nationalism in order to achieve its political goals requires a critical empirical study. Authoritarianism, conservatism, and even imperialism have been discussed as “new” features of the Russian state. But the change in the self-understanding of the Russian state is not a result of one factor, such as strengthening national pride, but rather a wide range of ideas that have been reshuffled in relation to each other. This Working Paper focuses on the state-led nationalism in this changing ideational environment between the years 2012 and 2016, and how it has been received by the people.
- Topic:
- Nationalism, International Affairs, Power Politics, Authoritarianism, and Neoimperialism
- Political Geography:
- Russia
1865. Russia's 2016 Duma Elections: Ambiguous triumph and new challenges for the regime
- Author:
- Kirill Rogov
- Publication Date:
- 11-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The recent 2016 Duma elections were planned by the Kremlin to attest to the fact that the period of troubled political development – which began during the previous 2011 Duma elections – is over. Further, the elections served to test Putin’s consolidated authoritarianism on the eve of the forthcoming presidential elections in 2018. While successful in terms of preserving full control over the new Duma, the election results nevertheless demonstrated that the patriotic enthusiasm evoked by the annexation of Crimea has largely been exhausted. The pressure on the opposition, new electoral rules and reliance on regions with so-called “administrative voting” secured a victory for the party of power, but in urban regions the turnout was very low and voting for the Kremlin’s party did not differ much from 2011 patterns. Although the direct effect of the economic crisis on people’s political attitudes is still moderate, the continued long-term stagnation in the Russian economy that started even before the fall in energy prices remains the major challenge for regime stability. Ambiguous election results force the Kremlin to seek new instruments of political consolidation. The Kremlin’s most probable strategy may be to combine toughening authoritarian institutions with maintaining high tension in the international arena in order to prolong the ‘rally around the flag’ effect domestically, by attempting or promising “authoritarian modernization” to gain support in urban regions. As the presidential election date approaches, both Putin’s foreign and economic policies could become even riskier than they have been to date.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Political Economy, International Affairs, Elections, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Russia
1866. Evaluating Western Sanctions on Russia
- Author:
- Sergey Aleksashenko
- Publication Date:
- 12-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- It has been more than two years since the European Union (EU) and the United States (US) imposed economic sanctions on Russia for its aggression in Ukraine. For some of the measures, though not all, that is time enough to evaluate effectiveness. But before such an assessment can be made, the initial goals of the sanctions should be clearly stated. This is not as straightforward as it might seem.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Security, Sanctions, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, America, and European Union
1867. US And Russia: Insecurity and Mistrust Shape Mutual Perceptions
- Author:
- Dina Smeltz, Stepan Goncharov, and Lily Wojtowicz
- Publication Date:
- 11-2016
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Chicago Council on Global Affairs
- Abstract:
- A breakdown in cooperation between the United States and Russia in Syria, disputes over bilateral arms control agreements, and official US allegations of Russian cyber-meddling in the US presidential election have increased bilateral tensions. Most recently, the Kremlin ended participation in a joint agreement with the United States to eliminate both countries’ excess stocks of weapons grade plutonium. Yet even before these recent developments, increasingly frosty diplomatic relations seem to have taken their toll on mutual perceptions in public opinion.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Security, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Russia and America
1868. A Few Words on Real Russia
- Author:
- Yan Vaslavsky
- Publication Date:
- 01-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Rethinking Russia
- Abstract:
- Vladimir Putin delivered his Annual Presidential Address to the Federal Assembly at St. George’s Hall of the Great Kremlin Palace on December 1. The state-of-the- nation address is regarded as a major speech over a 12-month period. It usually recounts the progress and outlines national priorities and the development agenda for the near future. This format is not unique1, but it tends to command attention of the general public at home and abroad as well as of parliamentarians to whom, judging by its very name, it is addressed.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Cooperation, International Security, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Global Focus
1869. Vyacheslav Volodin to head CSTO Parliamentary Assembly. Some thoughts on popular roots of political support
- Author:
- Matthew Crosston
- Publication Date:
- 01-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Rethinking Russia
- Abstract:
- Vyacheslav Volodin was elected as head of the Collective Security Treaty Organization’s Parliamentary Assembly during the 9th Plenary Session of the CSTO’s PA in St. Petersburg on November 24th. Thus concludes a relatively fast and interesting transition personally for the influential Volodin, who in just three months has gone from the first deputy chief of President Putin’s staff in the Kremlin to being elected to the Russian Duma from his native Saratov to quickly becoming that body’s Speaker, officially putting him fourth in line in terms of Russian political power, behind the President, Prime Minister, and speaker of the Federation Council, the upper chamber of the national parliament.
- Topic:
- International Affairs, Political Theory, and Political Power Sharing
- Political Geography:
- Russia
1870. Beyond the confrontation. Interview with Edward Luttwak
- Author:
- Edward Luttwak
- Publication Date:
- 01-2016
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Rethinking Russia
- Abstract:
- In the recent months the US-Russian relations have been in this weird place where Russia suddenly emerged again as a topic of a heated and very controversial electoral campaign and again in a form of an Evil Empire. The relations have been strained since 2014 following the events in Crimea, Ukraine and the sanctions rounds even though the same two countries managed to cooperate around Iran, and were rubbing shoulders in Syria. The recent storm has been caused by the leakage of the Democratic party emails, allegedly done by Moscow with the end goal to undermine Hillary Clinton (who is holding firm anti-Russian position) and support Donald Trump (who has praised Vladimir Putin in the past). With the elections taking place this week, Rethinking Russia spoke to an influential Republican geostrategist, CSIS senior associate Edward Luttwak about the current state of the Russian-American elections.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Cooperation, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Russia and America
1871. Less is Better in US-Russian Relations Today
- Author:
- Thomas Graham
- Publication Date:
- 01-2016
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Rethinking Russia
- Abstract:
- Beware of rapid improvement in US-Russian relations. It cannot be sustained, and it always ends in sorrow for both countries. That at least is the history of relations since the end of the Cold War, to which each American president – Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama – can attest.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Organization, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Russia and America
1872. Overcoming Babylon
- Author:
- Yan Vaslavskiy
- Publication Date:
- 01-2016
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Rethinking Russia
- Abstract:
- The 13th Valdai Discussion Club session was held in Sochi October 24-27. Ever since its establishment in 2004, the Club has gained the reputation, first of all, as a forum for Russian and foreign experts to compare notes on a wide range of international issues. Secondly, the President of Russia drops into the exclusive club on quite a regular basis.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Russia
1873. Primakov Readings
- Author:
- Tatyana Alekseeva
- Publication Date:
- 01-2016
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Rethinking Russia
- Abstract:
- The International Primakov Readings Forum took place November 29-30, 2016, in commemoration of Yevgeny Primakov. The meeting was organized by the Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry and the Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO led by Alexander Dynkin) and was backed by the World Trade Center, the Russian Science Foundation, the Council for Foreign and Defense Policy, and the University of Pennsylvania. In his address to the Forum, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin argued that Primakov had succeeded in predicting the events unfolding in today’s world, especially in the Middle East. As the Head of State put it, “Actually, I was always taking heed of Primakov’s assessments, as he was a wise and astute diplomat. I trusted him and asked to accomplish responsible and sensitive missions rather than ordered him”. Besides, the Primakov Readings Conference brought together Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Chair of the Federation Council Valentina Matvienko, and President’s foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov who delivered an opening speech. The Forum was also attended by most leading experts on international relations. The Rethinking Russia Think Tank presents the comment of Tatyana Alekseeva, a participant of the Primakov Readings Forum.
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Global Focus
1874. Russophrenia: western elites ignore their own citizens’ anger and blame Russia instead
- Author:
- Bryan MacDonald
- Publication Date:
- 01-2016
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Rethinking Russia
- Abstract:
- At the start of 1917, rumours reached London that something was stirring in Petrograd (now St. Petersburg). As a result, the concerned Prime Minister, David Lloyd George, urgently dispatched Lord Milner, a diplomat of some repute, to the Russian capital. His Lordship visited the Tsar and spoke to ministers and members of the Duma, who informed him that enemies of the state were spreading groundless yarns. Sadly, being a creature of his class, Milner believed that only the elites mattered so he neglected to consult any of the general public. Thus, cocooned in his bubble, the peer reported to London that there was nothing the government could not handle and no need to expect no major changes. However, the same British travelling party also included Lloyd George’s private secretary Philip Kerr. A little more clued in, Kerr walked the streets and interviewed the plain folk. Armed with their predictions, he sent a telegram to Downing Street which asserted that Russia was on the verge of an unstoppable revolution. As it happens, the man who stepped out of the comfort zone was right because Nikolai II was shorn of his crown before the British delegation made it home. We know this story because many years later the ‘Welsh Wizard,’ Lloyd George, revealed the details to Ivan Maisky, the Soviet ambassador to London. And almost a hundred years later, it is a salutary lesson in the dangers of the establishment refusing to acknowledge ordinary people’s concerns when evaluating the causes of political upheaval.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Security, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Global Focus
1875. The Russian Gambit In Syria
- Author:
- Flemming Splidsboel Hansen
- Publication Date:
- 12-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Senior researcher and research coordinator Flemming Splidsboel Hansen explores Russia’s Syria agenda as part of a DIIS initiative to understand the geopolitics of nonwestern intervention in Syria. The Kremlin presents Russia’s political and military involvement in Syria as an unconditional success. Its overall aim of putting Russia firmly back on the geopolitical map has been met. It is now clear that the key to any negotiated settlement to the conflict in Syria lies in Moscow. Moreover, Russia now seems to be close to a position where it may dictate the composition of the future Syrian regime and, not least, decide whether Syrian president Bashar al-Assad will remain in the presidential palace or be forced into exile. The costs of the military operations have been acceptable to the Russian public. Defence observers estimate that the first year of military operations cost the Russian armed forces 65 bn Rubles (approximately one bn USD) and some 20 deaths (combat and non-combat). The financial costs may be partially offset by increased future weapons sales. There is a high probability, however, that Russia will find itself embroiled in a complicated sectarian conflict in Syria from which there is no easy exit. This would test Russian public support for the military involvement in Syria. Already now Russian media comments suggest some degree of frustration over the alleged lack of fighting capacity and will on part of the Syrian armed forces. The Russian public may want to see a plan for an orderly exit from Syria, and this puts pressure on the Kremlin to deliver. However, the Syrian regime may not be able to survive without Russian military support, and Russian policy-makers may therefore soon be facing difficult choices.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Security, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Syria
1876. Russia’s Asia Pivot: Engaging the Russian Far East, China and Southeast Asia
- Author:
- Bhavna Dave
- Publication Date:
- 05-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- The Russia-ASEAN summit being held in Sochi on 19-20 May 2016 to mark twenty years of Russia’s dialogue partnership with ASEAN is a further indicator of President Vladimir Putin’s ‘pivot to Asia’ policy, triggered also by its current confrontation with the west. Through this pivot, Moscow wants to assert Russia’s geopolitical status as a Euro-Pacific as well as Asia- Pacific power. It is a pragmatic response to the shifting of global power to Asia. It also builds on the growing Russo-Chinese relations to develop the Russian Far East, a resource-rich but underdeveloped region into the gateway for expansion of Russia into the Asia Pacific. At the same time, the growing asymmetry in achieving the economic and strategic goals of Russia and China has resulted in fears that the Russian Far East will turn into a raw materials appendage of China. Moscow lacks the financial resources to support Putin’s Asia pivot. Therefore, Russia needs to strengthen ties with other Asia-Pacific countries and ASEAN as a regional grouping so as to attract more diversified trade and investments into its Far East region. It is in this context that the Sochi summit takes on added significance. However, given Russia’s sporadic interest in Southeast Asia and its strategic role defined mainly by the limited potential of Russian energy and arms exports to ASEAN Member States, the PR diplomacy and summitry at Sochi may not deliver substantive outcomes for Russia. Nonetheless, Moscow aims to enhance its status in the east and seek business and strategic opportunities through the summit thereby compensating to some extent Russia’s loss following the sanctions imposed by the west over the annexation of Crimea.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, and Infrastructure
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, China, Europe, and Asia
1877. Selected Essays on the Transition to a New Nuclear Order
- Author:
- Judith Reppy and Catherine M. Kelleher
- Publication Date:
- 07-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Judith Reppy Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies
- Abstract:
- What conditions are needed for a stable transition to a new nuclear order, one in which the total number of nuclear weapons would be reduced to very low numbers, perhaps even zero? We have addressed the myriad issues raised by this question with funding from a grant on “Creating Conditions for a Stable Transition to a New Nuclear Order,” co-directed by Catherine Kelleher and Judith Reppy, from the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation to the Judith Reppy Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies at Cornell University. The essays collected here are a sample of the work supported by the grant. The goals of our project are three-fold: to take a fresh look at the theoretical underpinnings of the arguments about strategic security and nuclear doctrines; to encourage members of the younger generation (NextGen) scholars working on nuclear security issues to see themselves as part of a network that stretches from scholars in the field to active participants in the policy process; and to disseminate the products of the project to the policy community, in Washington and elsewhere. We have convened four workshops—in Berlin (December 2014); Ithaca, NY (November 2015); Monterey, CA (February 2016); and Washington, DC (May 2016)—and held several discussion dinners in Washington, DC. We received very welcome assistance in organizing these events from the German Marshall Fund, which hosted our Berlin workshop, and Bill Potter and Jeffrey Lewis at the Middlebury Institute for International Studies in Monterey. Elaine Scott and Sandra Kisner at Cornell provided invaluable support throughout, as did Ari Kattan, Jessica Gottesman, and Debak Das.A number of themes have emerged from these meetings, which we outline below. First, however, it is worth discussing the broader context in which the project has unfolded. In a very real sense, the seeds of our project were sown by the “Gang of Four” op-ed in the Wall Street Journal in January 2007 calling for worldwide nuclear disarmament. This call, coming from four highly respected individuals in the policy world, re-invigorated the debate over the usefulness and dangers of nuclear weapons around the world, and spurred a number of similar calls from diplomats and politicians in other countries. In April 2009, President Obama gave an important speech in Prague, in which he stated that the United States was committed “to seek the peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons.”2 The shift in the political discussion encouraged scholars to return to the topics of strategic security and nuclear deterrence, topics that had fallen into neglect following the end of the Cold War. One such effort was a series of meetings organized by Catherine Kelleher under a grant from the Carnegie Corporation, which resulted in our co-edited book, Getting to Zero. In that volume the question of what a transition to nuclear zero would look like was broached, but not analyzed in detail. The current project is intended as a step toward filling that gap. The dangers that nuclear weapons pose—from accidents, miscalculation in times of crisis, or their acquisition by non-state actors—have persuaded many people that a nuclear-weapons free world is desirable. The optimism that nuclear disarmament might be feasible was based in large part on the success of European countries following World War II in building a zone of peace across the European continent, historically the site of so many bloody wars, and on the peaceful dissolution of the Soviet Union. The Russian annexation of Crimea in spring 2014, however, ushered in a period of conflict in Ukraine and threw the validity of the European model into question. In Asia, stability has been threatened by North Korea’s detonation of nuclear devices and a more assertive international policy on the part of China. These shifts in the international situation have made it clear that a new nuclear order will have to be robust enough to weather unexpected political shocks, as well as the challenges arising from technological changes that can undercut strategic balances and other changes that we cannot foresee. As Harald Müller has cogently argued, global nuclear disarmament will not happen in a world that looks like the world of today, minus nuclear weapons. Instead, it will be the result of a step-by-step process of changing ideas, building new modes of cooperation and trust among states, and finding ways to respect regional differences within a global order. The essays in this Occasional Paper offer ideas for this process. We have selected them from the larger number of commissioned papers and commentaries produced by the participants in the project. We have confined our choices to papers by NextGen participants and included examples from each of the four workshops. The issues discussed include new ways to frame deterrence logics, important both for understanding the history of the Cold War and current questions of nuclear learning (Harrington; Akhtar). Security perspectives both within and between regions are analyzed (Zhao; Martin), and the importance of cooperative approaches to security addressed (Kühn; Gheorghe).
- Topic:
- National Security, Nuclear Power, Denuclearization, and Transition
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, China, Europe, Asia, and North America
1878. NATO’s Future: A Tale of Three Summits
- Author:
- Hans Binnendijk
- Publication Date:
- 11-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for Transatlantic Relations
- Abstract:
- NATO tends to make progress on key policy issues and capability from summit to summit. Major shifts in the orientation of the Alliance can be traced to significant summits like London (1990), Washington (1999), Prague (2002), and Lisbon (2010). During the past two years, NATO has held a summit in Wales (4-5 September 2014) and one in Warsaw (8-9 July 2016). A third minisummit is planned for Brussels in 2017. These first two summits taken together again significantly shifted the focus of the Alliance in the face of a series of new and dangerous challenges in the East and South. They shifted NATO’s posture in the East from benign neglect to allied reassurance to some degree of deterrence. The proposed force posture is inadequate to defeat a determined Russian short warning attack. Considerable increases in forward deployed forces (perhaps seven brigades) plus strengthened reinforcements would be necessary for NATO to hold its ground. But the Warsaw formula does provide what might be called “deterrence by assured response.” In the South, Allies recognized the complexity of the threats to Europe and sought to define NATO’s role in dealing with them. The third summit next year in Brussels could set the stage for further progress on both fronts. Much more still needs to be done. But with these fairly dramatic changes, NATO is in the process of once again restructuring itself so that it will not be “obsolete” in the effort to provide security for the transatlantic allies. This paper briefly analyzes 20 key issues now facing the Alliance and highlights the progress made in Wales and Warsaw. It also suggests some directions for the Brussels summit and beyond.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Brussels, Warsaw, and Wales
1879. The Eastern Question: Russia, the West and Europe’s Grey Zone
- Author:
- Daniel S. Hamilton and Stefan Meister
- Publication Date:
- 08-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for Transatlantic Relations
- Abstract:
- Russia under Vladimir Putin has become a revisionist power seeking to undo the post-Cold War settlement, control its neighborhood, and disrupt Western influence. By annexing the eastern Ukrainian region of Crimea and waging war in other parts of the country, the Kremlin seeks not only to undermine Ukraine's sovereignty but the European security order. The comfortable verities of the ''post-Cold War era'' are a paradigm lost. The Soviet succession continues to rumble, and a new era has begun - more fluid, more turbulent, more open-ended.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, NATO, Treaties and Agreements, Partnerships, Grand Strategy, Conflict, and Putin
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and North America
1880. La Turquie face aux réfugiés syriens : entre engagement humanitaire et instrumentalisation politique (Turkey Hosting Syrian Refugees: Between Humanitarian Commitment and Political Instrumentalisation)
- Author:
- Bayram Balci and Juliette Tolay
- Publication Date:
- 12-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
- Abstract:
- While the issue of Syrian refugees has led an increasing number of countries to work on curbing arrivals, one country, Turkey, hosts almost half of these refugees. Yet, far from imposing restrictions, Turkey has distinguished itself for its open border policy and large-scale humanitarian contribution. Turkey’s generosity alone is not sufficient to understand this asylum policy put in place specifically for Syrians. There are indeed a number of political factors that indicate a certain level of instrumentalisation of this issue. In particular, Turkey’s benevolent attitude can be explained by Turkey’s early opposition to Assad in the Syrian conflict and its wish to play a role in the post-conflict reconstruction of Syria, as well as by its willingness to extract material and symbolic benefits from the European Union. But the refugee crisis also matters at the level of domestic politics, where different political parties (in power or in the opposition) seem to have used the refugee issue opportunistically, at the expense of a climate favorable to Syrians’ healthy integration in Turkey.
- Topic:
- Globalization, Migration, Nationalism, Religion, Terrorism, War, International Security, Diaspora, Peacekeeping, Refugees, Syrian War, Regional Integration, and Transnational Actors
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Turkey, Middle East, Balkans, and Syria
1881. Regards sur l’Eurasie - L’année politique 2015
- Author:
- Anne De Tinguy, Bayram Balci, Isabelle Facon, Adrien Fauve, Thorniké Gordadze, Sergei Guriev, Raphaël Lefèvre, Gilles Lepesant, and Céline Marangé
- Publication Date:
- 02-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
- Abstract:
- "Looking into Eurasia" provides some keys to understand the events and phenomena that have left their imprint on a region that has undergone major mutation since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991: the post-soviet space. With a cross-cutting approach that is no way claims to be exhaustive, this study seeks to identify the key drivers, the regional dynamics and the underlying issues at stake.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Economics, Energy Policy, Migration, Nationalism, Political Economy, Sovereignty, Terrorism, Natural Resources, Europeanization, Political Science, Regional Integration, and State
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Central Asia, Caucasus, Middle East, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Georgia, Western Europe, and European Union
1882. Old Times on the Soviet Desk
- Author:
- Peter Bridges
- Publication Date:
- 01-2016
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- American Diplomacy
- Institution:
- American Diplomacy
- Abstract:
- Back in the late 1950s, when Stalin was not long gone and the Soviet state remained our militarily powerful and dangerous adversary, the State Department’s basic office for dealing with the Russians was a Soviet desk composed of just four members of the Foreign Service and four from the Civil Service, the latter including an archivist and two stenographers. There were of course other Washington offices that had to do with the USSR, in State as well as in CIA, Commerce, the FBI, the Pentagon, and USIA; but we were the primary interface wth the two embassies, the Soviet in Washington and ours in Moscow. Shortly before Christmas in 1957 I became the junior Foreign Service officer on the Soviet desk, after completing the then three-month orientation course for new FSOs at the Department’s Foreign Service Institute.
- Topic:
- Cold War, Diplomacy, and Memoir
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Soviet Union, and United States of America
1883. Dealing with the authoritarian resurgence
- Author:
- Christopher Walker
- Publication Date:
- 09-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for the Opening and Development of Latin America (CADAL)
- Abstract:
- A renewed struggle between democracy and authoritarianism has emerged. The decade-long democratic decline reported by Freedom House has been most dramatic within the ranks of already authoritarian regimes, which have become even more repressive. At the same time, the most influential among them— China, Russia, and Iran—have become more internationalist. In doing so, they have found ways to exploit integration and to broaden their influence in the democratic world. Through the development of the antidemocratic toolkit of simulated NGOs, think tanks, election monitors, and news media, the autocrats are actively seeking to undermine democracy from within.
- Topic:
- Authoritarianism, Democracy, Freedom of Expression, Fascism, Dictatorship, and Totalitarianism
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, and Iran
1884. Iranian Attitudes in Advance of the Parliamentary Elections: Economics, Politics, and Foreign Affairs
- Author:
- Nancy Gallagher, Clay Ramsay, and Ebrahim Mohseni
- Publication Date:
- 02-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM)
- Abstract:
- Summary of Findings 1. Views of the Rouhani Administration President Hassan Rouhani and Foreign Minister Javad Zarif enjoy high levels of popular support in Iran. Nearly 8 in 10 Iranians say they have a favorable opinion of Rouhani and Zarif. Yet the intensity of their popularity has substantially eroded since August 2015. With Iran’s parliamentary elections only about a month away, 6 in 10 Iranians continue to want Rouhani supporters to win, while a growing minority favors his critics. Though Rouhani receives high marks for improving Iran’s security and deepening Iran’s relations with European countries, views of the economy are mixed. An increasing majority of Iranians think that Rouhani has not been successful in reducing unemployment. Iranians are also substantially less optimistic about Iran’s economy, with less than half now thinking that the economy is getting better. 2. Iran’s February 2016 Parliamentary Elections Four in ten Iranians voice confidence that the upcoming Majlis (Iran’s Parliament) elections will be very fair, and another four in ten assume it will be somewhat free and fair. Two thirds are highly confident they will vote in the upcoming elections for the Majlis and the Assembly of Experts. The most important issues Iranians want the new Majlis to tackle are unemployment and Iran’s low performing economy. 3. Civil Liberties in Iran Two in three Iranians believe that it is important for President Rouhani to seek to increase civil liberties in Iran. However, only a small minority complains that Iranians have too little freedom. While only about a third thinks that civil liberties in Iran have increased during Rouhani’s presidency, a plurality expects that civil liberties will increase at least somewhat over the next two years. 4. Approval for Nuclear Deal Seven in ten Iranians approve of the nuclear deal, though enthusiasm has waned somewhat. The deal garners support from majorities of those who favor Rouhani’s critics in the Majlis election, as well as those who favor his supporters. Two thirds still think the Iranian leadership negotiated a good deal for Iran, though the number of those disagreeing has risen to one in five. The number who believes it was a win for Iran has also declined, while the number who believes it was a victory for both sides has risen and is now a majority. 5. Perceptions of the Nuclear Deal Substantial numbers of Iranians now have a more accurate picture of the deal than they did in August 2015. About half (up from a third) now realizes that Iran has accepted limits on its nuclear research. Almost half (up from a quarter) now knows that many US sanctions are not covered by the agreement and will continue. However, growing majorities continue to believe incorrectly that Iranian military sites cannot be inspected under any conditions. A majority also believes that the US has agreed to not impose new sanctions to replace the ones that were removed as part of the nuclear deal. 6. Expectations of Economic Benefits Three in five Iranians expect that the nuclear deal will eventually result in improvements in their own economic well-being. This sentiment is shared by a majority of those who support Rouhani’s critics in the upcoming parliamentary elections. Majorities expect to see, within a year, better access to medical products from abroad, more foreign investment, and significant improvements in unemployment and the overall economy, though these majorities have declined from August 2015. 7. The Nuclear Deal’s Effect on Iran’s Foreign Relations A large majority of Iranians thinks that Iran’s relations with European countries have already improved as a result of the nuclear deal, but only one in three thinks Iran’s relations with the United States have improved. 8. Views of US Cooperation in the Nuclear Deal Six in ten Iranians are not confident that the US will live up to its obligations under the nuclear agreement and do not think the US will accept other countries cooperating with Iran’s civilian nuclear sector, as provided for under the deal. Half assume the US will use pressure and sanctions to extract more concessions from Iran—up from only a quarter in August 2015. 9. Views of the Nuclear Program Just as in past years, four in five Iranians see the development of an Iranian nuclear program as very important, and three in four see this program as being for purely peaceful purposes. Four in five continue to favor the idea of a Middle East nuclear-free zone that would require all countries in the Middle East, including Israel, not to have nuclear weapons. 10. Iran’s Involvement in Syria and Fighting ISIS Large majorities of Iranians approve of Iran being involved in Syria and strongly support countering ISIS, preserving Iran’s influence in the region, and countering Saudi, American, and Israeli influence. Overwhelming majorities approve of Iran fighting ISIS directly. Large majorities also approve of Iran supporting Shiite and Kurdish groups fighting ISIS and providing support to Iranian allies in the region. Strengthening the Assad government gets more modest support and is seen as a secondary goal for Iran. Two in three Iranians approve of sending Iranian military personnel to help Assad fight against armed Syrian rebels, including ISIS. 11. Views of US Involvement in Syria A large majority of Iranians disapproves of US involvement in Syria. US involvement in Syria is widely perceived as being primarily motivated by a desire to topple the Assad government, to increase US influence and power in the region, to protect Israeli and Saudi interests, and to decrease Iran’s influence and power in the region. Views are divided about whether the United States is seeking to protect Syrian civilians, to end the conflict, to prevent the conflict from spreading, or to fight ISIS. A modest majority says US efforts against ISIS are not at all sincere. A bare majority supports direct cooperation with the United States to counter ISIS in Iraq. 12. Views of Other Nations Involved in Syria Large majorities of Iranians approve of the involvement in Syria of Russia and Hezbollah, and seven in ten express confidence that Russia’s efforts against ISIS are sincerely motivated. However, large majorities disapprove of the involvement in Syria of Turkey, France, and, especially, Saudi Arabia. Large majorities say that the Saudis’ efforts against ISIS are insincere; views of the sincerity of the efforts by Turkey and France are less negative. A large majority has a negative view of Saudi efforts to create a coalition against terrorism, primarily because Saudi Arabia is seen as a supporter of ISIS. 13. International Collaboration on Syria and ISIS Despite their suspicions of other countries operating in the region, eight in ten Iranians approve of Iran participating in the international talks on the conflict in Syria. Of those who know about the Vienna agreement, seven in ten approve of it. 14. Views of Other Countries Iranians view their country’s allies, notably Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Hezbollah, favorably, and view Saudi Arabia and Turkey increasingly unfavorably. Views of Russia and China are generally favorable and have improved considerably over time. Western countries, with the exception of Germany, are viewed unfavorably, with Britain and the US viewed negatively by large majorities in Iran. In contrast, a majority has a favorable opinion of the American people.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, Geopolitics, ISIS, and Hezbollah
- Political Geography:
- Britain, Russia, United States, China, Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, and Syria
1885. Clouds of Suspicion: Airspace Arrangements, Escalation, and Discord in U.S./NATO-Russian Relations
- Author:
- anya Loukianova fink
- Publication Date:
- 05-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM)
- Abstract:
- Policy makers in the Euro-Atlantic region are concerned that incidents involving military or civilian aircraft could result in dangerous escalation of conflict between Russia and the West. This brief introduces the policy problem and traces the evolution of three sets of cooperative airspace arrangements developed by Euro-Atlantic states since the end of the Cold War—(1) cooperative aerial surveillance of military activity, (2) exchange of air situational data, and (3) joint engagement of theater air and missile threats—in order to clarify the current regional airspace insecurity dynamics and identify opportunities to promote transparency and confidence in U.S./NATO-Russian relations.
- Topic:
- NATO, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, and North Atlantic
1886. The Dispatch (Spring 2016)
- Author:
- David J. Bercuson, Jean-Christophe Boucher, J. L. Granatstein, David Carment, Teddy Samy, Paul Dewar, Roy Rempel, Eric Miller, Anthony Cary, Chris Westdal, Rolf Holmboe, Randolf Mank, Marius Grinius, P. Whitney Lackenbauer, and Adam Lajeunesse
- Publication Date:
- 03-2016
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Global Exchange
- Institution:
- Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
- Abstract:
- The Dispatch (later called The Global Exchange) is the Canadian Global Affairs Institute’s quarterly magazine featuring topical articles written by our fellows and other contributing experts. Each issue contains approximately a dozen articles exploring political and strategic challenges in international affairs and Canadian foreign and defence policy. This Spring 2016 issue includes articles on Canada's international reputation, foreign relations, defense policy and more.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Defense Policy, Peacekeeping, Cybersecurity, Weapons, Brexit, Nonproliferation, Syrian War, Trans-Pacific Partnership, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Britain, Russia, China, Canada, Israel, Asia, North Korea, Syria, North America, and Arctic
1887. The Dispatch (Winter 2016)
- Author:
- David J. Bercuson, Frédérick Gagnon, Randolph Mank, Colin Robertson, Robert Huebert, Hugh Stephens, Gary Soroka, Hugh Segal, Daryl Copeland, David Perry, and Robert Muggah
- Publication Date:
- 12-2016
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Global Exchange
- Institution:
- Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
- Abstract:
- The Dispatch (later called The Global Exchange) is the Canadian Global Affairs Institute’s quarterly magazine featuring topical articles written by our fellows and other contributing experts. Each issue contains approximately a dozen articles exploring political and strategic challenges in international affairs and Canadian foreign and defence policy. This Winter 2016 issue includes articles on the election of Donald Trump, energy policy, Canadian defense capability, and more.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, NATO, Energy Policy, Elections, Trans-Pacific Partnership, Trade, and Donald Trump
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Japan, Europe, Canada, North America, Arctic, and United States of America
1888. The Return of Geopolitics to Southeast Europe
- Author:
- Sandro Knezović
- Publication Date:
- 04-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
- Abstract:
- A few months ago, the newspapers in Southeast Europe reported extensively on an arms race in the region, sparked by Croatian attempts to acquire the US artillery system M270 MLRS and Serbia’s reaction to that event. Of�icials in Belgrade found the aforementioned move assertive and, by way of response, announced the procurement of Russian-made S-300 within the wider programme of rearming with Russian military equipment. Those who wanted to dig more deeply into trying to �ind evidence for a developing arms race cited the fact that Serbia, on the occasion of the visit of Russian President Putin, had organised a military parade to commemorate the liberation of Belgrade from Nazi occupation. That was followed by Croatia’s military parade on the occasion of the 20th anniversary of the military-police operation ‘Storm’. The display of military strength, they concluded, was another sign of growing military rivalry between the two states which had the capacity to dramatically destabilise the fragile peace in the region. Those with more detailed knowledge of the region remind us that neither Croatia nor Serbia - especially the latter - had the political, economic or human capacity to engage in a military con�lict, especially given the existing international presence and strategic set-up in the region. Numerous experts rightfully pointed to the prevailing low level of cross-border political dialogue and the fact that political elites in the region had frequently used populist rhetoric to fuel the support of their electorate, focusing less on the real substance of the dispute with the neighbour. Lastly, but certainly not of least importance, was the fact that, both countries, together with Bosnia and Herzegovina and Montenegro, had taken on international obligations to safeguard a stable military balance, thus preventing any potential escalations and destabilisation in the region. The so-called 1996 Florence Agreement on Sub-Regional Arms Control, derived from Article IV of the Dayton Peace Agreement, set the basic framework for negotiations on the limitation of arms. The Amendments to that agreement, signed at the 21st OSCE Ministerial Council in Basel (December 2014), imposed full responsibility on signatory states for regional stability and arms control.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Military Strategy, and Populism
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Bosnia and Herzegovina
1889. Emerging European Security Challenges
- Author:
- Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination
- Publication Date:
- 04-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
- Abstract:
- The Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination at Princeton University (LISD) convened a special Liechtenstein Colloquium,“Emerging European Security Challenges,” in Triesenberg, Principality of Liechtenstein, from November 12-15, 2015. The colloquium brought together senior diplomats, academics, policy-makers, experts and representatives of European civil society and NGOs. The colloquium was off-the-record and was financially supported by a grant from the Carnegie Corporation of New York and SIBIL Foundation, Vaduz. The objective of the colloquium was to examine the interactions between and the various effects of three key crises—the Ukraine war, the war in Syria, and the European refugee crisis—for broader regional, EU, and international security. Cluster One considered “Russia, Ukraine, the West, and the future of collective security,” including the role of the Baltic states in security issues, the relationship between Russia and the European Union, and the role of media, information and hybrid warfare. Cluster Two, “The Syrian War and ISIS/Da’esh” focused on several issues related to the ongoing civil war and conflict in the Middle East, including alliances of the Assad government, rebel and other opposition groups, ISIS/Da’esh, Russia, Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States, and, especially, the Kurds. Emphasis was put on the plight of Christians and other religious groups in the region. Cluster Three, “The refugee crisis and the challenge of European collective action,” connected the worst refugee crisis in Europe since World War II to the situation in the MENA region. It focused on refugees and migrants within Europe’s borders and along the Balkan route, the role of Turkey, Greece and Germany, terrorism concerns, and EU actions and emerging differences between member states. The protection of religious minorities and the longer-term question of integration and assimilation of refugees and asylum-seekers offered another focus. This report reflects the substance of these discussions and includes an updated Chair’s Addendum.
- Topic:
- Security, Terrorism, European Union, Refugee Crisis, ISIS, and Humanitarian Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, and Syria
1890. Europe Today and What's Next
- Author:
- Hannes Androsch
- Publication Date:
- 12-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
- Abstract:
- In many places it is forgotten that Europe, especially the EU, is a veritable success story, as this continent has never before experienced a period such as the past seven decades of democracy, peace and prosperity. Faced with the current challenges, especially the refugee crisis, there has been an increasing tendency among European governments to take unilateral action. This approach cannot be successful, however, as European governments attempt to implement policy prescriptions of the past to solve problems of the present. In fact, we need not less but more Europe—but also a reformed Europe: a European Union with one voice for external policy (common foreign, security and defense policy and asylum and migration policy) and the capacity to overcome its internal turmoil (common economic, budget, and tax policies, and a minimum of a transfer union). We also need a European Union that makes the benefits of globalization available to all people. The European Union is currently experiencing one of its worst crises in its history. Old fault lines that have run through the continent for centuries, once considered overcome, have become prominent once again; new challenges have arisen, especially in the wake of globalization, climate change and new technological developments (the Digital Revolution). The world has seemingly become ungovernable. The proclaimed 1989 “end of history” (Fukuyama) is certainly over, and history has a firm grip on Europe. This, at least since the outbreak of the financial and economic crisis in 2007/08, no longer deniable fact is reflected in the still unresolved crisis in Greece (“Grexit”), the associated Euro Crisis, the British referendum on exit from the EU (“Brexit”), and in the renaissance of geopolitics. The annexation of Crimea by Russia undertaken in violation of international law, the war in eastern Ukraine, as well as state disintegration in Libya, Yemen, Iraq and Syria have made it clear that, from the Caucasus to the Balkans and from Pakistan/Afghanistan via the Middle East to North Africa, extends a “Ring of Fire,”—a term used by former Prime Minister of Singapore Lee Kuan Yew to describe the geopolitical challenges of Europe more than twenty years ago. These long concealed —or ignored—distortions are now breaking out again in the form of “wars of succession,” leaving behind territories plagued by unrest, civil wars, and failed states, and resulting in terrorism and refugee waves now reaching the center of Europe. The resulting “crisis mode,” within which the European Union has been operating for several years now, reached its climax with the result of the referendum conducted in June, determining Britain’s exit from the European Union (Brexit). Aside from the medium and long-term economic implications for the country, Brexit was an earthquake with unforeseeable consequences especially on the political level. Scotland is once again discussing its potential separation from the United Kingdom, the fragile peace funded by the EU in Northern Ireland is threatened by collapse, and in a considerable number of other EU countries—mainly France and the Netherlands—populist and nationalist parties are interpreting Brexit as a signal to seek their salvation in national initiatives.
- Topic:
- Security, Global Recession, European Union, Refugee Crisis, Brexit, and Humanitarian Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, United Kingdom, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Asia, and Syria
1891. Beyond Propaganda: Soviet Active Measures in Putin’s Russia
- Author:
- Steve Abrams
- Publication Date:
- 01-2016
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Connections
- Institution:
- Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
- Abstract:
- This paper investigates the role of Soviet-style “active measures” as an element of modern Russian “political warfare.” These techniques were commonly used during the Soviet-era, encompassing a broad range of influence activities, including: covert media placement, forgery, agents of influence, “friendship” societies, front organizations, and more. Today, in Putin’s Russia, these active measures are once again in use, updated for digitally interconnected “global information space.” The paper begins with an introduction to active measures, then discusses their role in Soviet foreign policy and the attempts by the American “Active Measures Working Group” to counter them. The paper then describes how the Soviet active measures playbook has been updated for the modern era, using three case studies as examples. The paper concludes with a discussion on strategy, reproducing a number of recommendations from key publications.
- Topic:
- Media, Information Age, Propaganda, and political warfare
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Eastern Europe
1892. The Threats and Challenges of a Multipolar World: A Ukraine Crisis Case Study
- Author:
- Oleksil Izhak
- Publication Date:
- 01-2016
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Connections
- Institution:
- Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
- Abstract:
- As the post-cold-war unipolar system transforms into a polycentric one, it becomes more complex and less predictable. The new system may be crushed with less effort than needed to keep it on track. The polycentric international system, as it emerges, suffers from hybrid threats. They are difficult to identify and predict. Russia pioneered exploiting the new vulnerabilities to gain unilateral advantages. Russia's hybrid war against Ukraine was just a starting episode of her wider attempt to crush the whole world order. Responsible world powers have either to fix the vulnerabilities of the polycentric world, or to block malicious attempts to exploit it.
- Topic:
- Imperialism, Military Strategy, Post Cold War, and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe
1893. Torn Asunder from Within: Ukraine and the Lessons for Global Security
- Author:
- Iryna Klymenko
- Publication Date:
- 01-2016
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Connections
- Institution:
- Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
- Abstract:
- Russia’s non-standard intervention in Ukraine was accomplished in four major areas—the economic system as a whole, the energy and security sectors, and information policy. The deliberate policy of the Kremlin has transformed Ukraine into economically fragile and institutionally weak nation. Due to efforts of former regime and Russian intelligence agencies, main Ukrainian government institutions were involved in semi-legal, semi-criminal transnational business scheme. Macro-financial vulnerability of Ukraine, in conjunction with a strained economic structure, proved to be the necessary and sufficient conditions for preparing and implementing hybrid aggression. The Ukrainian precedent might be replicated as a special operation to destroy statehood, whereby disruption is achieved through the escalation of internal political and economic challenges. One universal means of undermining statehood in an era of hybrid wars is to encourage corruption among holders of the highest office.
- Topic:
- Security, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, and Foreign Interference
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe
1894. ‘Good’ and ‘Bad’ Investments: Everything You Always Wanted to Know about Ukrainian Commanders but Were Afraid to Ask
- Author:
- Michael Komin and Alexander Vileykis
- Publication Date:
- 01-2016
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Connections
- Institution:
- Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
- Abstract:
- The military conflict in Southeastern Ukraine provides vast research opportunities in most diverse areas and in a zone of ongoing combat with all its attendant social ramifications. This article provides a review of some key questions of this war: why volunteer battalions conduct some harmful and inhumane acts and what may be done next to prevent violence after the war. Because war creates big areas without any control, there are huge non-transferable investments, incidents like torturing civil people, etc. The authors try to explain what conditions may impact the behavior of battalions and what should the governments do after the war ends.
- Topic:
- Imperialism, Military Strategy, Territorial Disputes, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe
1895. Hybrid Warfare and the Changing Character of Conflict
- Author:
- Bastain Giegerich
- Publication Date:
- 03-2016
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Connections
- Institution:
- Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
- Abstract:
- The idea that international conflict might be seeing more hybrid warfare and hybrid threats has animated debate among security and defense establishments in the run-up to NATO’s 2016 Warsaw Summit. While the Alliance has located the issue of hybrid war in the specific context of the Russia/Ukraine crisis and in 2014 triggered efforts to prepare NATO to effectively meet hybrid warfare threats, the scope of the challenge is much wider and the core dynamics are often located outside of the military realm. The article reviews the recent conceptual debates about hybrid warfare, suggesting that hybrid conflicts defy our attempts to press them into known categories and locate them clearly on a spectrum of war and peace. NATO Member States will have to invest in resilience and conventional deterrence to counter hybrid threats.
- Topic:
- NATO, Imperialism, Military Strategy, Deterrence, and Hybrid Warfare
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, North Atlantic, Ukraine, and North America
1896. Making Sense of Hybrid Warfare
- Author:
- James K. Wither
- Publication Date:
- 03-2016
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Connections
- Institution:
- Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
- Abstract:
- The term hybrid warfare has been widely analyzed by scholars, policymakers and commentators since Russia occupied Crimea in March 2014. The topic has ceased to be a subject only studied by military strate-gists, but has entered the wider policy domain as a significant security challenge for the West. This article seeks to place the debate about hybrid warfare in a broader analytical and historical context and summarizes discussion to date on this and related strategic concepts. The Russian approach to hybrid warfare as demonstrated by operations in Ukraine is a particular focus for discussion.
- Topic:
- NATO, Military Strategy, Territorial Disputes, Collective Defense, and Hybrid Warfare
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, North Atlantic, Ukraine, North America, and Crimea
1897. Non-State Actors in the Russo-Ukrainian War
- Author:
- Joshua P. Mulford
- Publication Date:
- 03-2016
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Connections
- Institution:
- Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
- Abstract:
- The current war in Ukraine has highlighted the fact that in this new age of warfare non-state actors play a larger role than ever before. The influence of the media, think tanks and academia, religious groups, organized crime, war militias, NGOs and GONGOs, and the Ukrainian diaspora is pervasive. Kremlin-controlled media coverage of the war in Eastern Ukraine, including the downing of the MH-17 jet, is offset by the newer grassroots pro-Ukrainian media outlets such as Ukraine Today. Think tanks and academia focused on Ukraine and Russia are also battling for visibility in the government and among the populous. The impact of religious groups on the Ukrainian conflict is best featured in the Russian Orthodox Church’s rationalizing the invasion of Crimea as Russia’s divine right. The Ukrainian church, a subset of the ROC, has broken off and played a proactive role in assisting the war effort by pro-Ukrainian militias. The almost concurrent rise of militias and organized crime in Ukraine pose as a precarious issue for the future of the country. As the government is incapable of regaining sovereignty of its territory, stand-alone militias have risen to fight the Russian invasion in Eastern Ukraine. Organized crime has capitalized on the instability of the region, and with the annexation of Crimea, a new system of black market activities has been opened. The outside world is taking an interest in the Ukrainian plight, as well as in the form of NGO support, and in the case of Russia, GONGOs to promote policies in line with their agendas. The Ukrainian diaspora has also fought to influence policy making towards Ukraine, forming committees and sending supplies to the front line. It is unclear how much influence these non-state actors will have in the future of Ukraine, but it is quite certain that they each play a significant role in the way the conflict is perceived.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Territorial Disputes, Non State Actors, and Media
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe
1898. Cyber Operations and Gray Zones: Challenges for NATO
- Author:
- Oliver Fitton
- Publication Date:
- 03-2016
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Connections
- Institution:
- Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
- Abstract:
- The Gray Zone represents a space between peaceful state rivalries and war. Within this space actors have developed hybrid strategies to extend their influence. This concept of conflict is best illustrated by Russia’s actions in Eastern Ukraine in 2014. Gray Zone doctrine leverages ambiguity to create an environment in which adversaries are unable to make strategic decisions in a timely and confident manner. Cyber Operations, because of the attribution problem, lend themselves to this kind of conflict. This article explores the interactions between the Gray Zone and cyber operations and considers questions which NATO must address in order to adapt.
- Topic:
- NATO, Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, and Hybrid Warfare
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, North Atlantic, Ukraine, and North America
1899. A Changing Security Paradigm. New Roles for New Actors – The Russian Approach
- Author:
- Miroslaw Banasik
- Publication Date:
- 09-2016
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Connections
- Institution:
- Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
- Abstract:
- The success of the Russian Federation in Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea attest to the fact that the hybrid warfare constitutes an effective tool for achieving political objectives. This article evaluates the nature of hybrid warfare based on theoretical publications on the art of war and doctrinal documents of the Russian Federation, and characterizes the practical dimensions of hybrid warfare. It can be concluded on that basis that hybrid warfare and organized crime constitute real threats to European safety and security. International organizations such as NATO and the European Union so far have not drawn up neither the strategy nor effective tools for countering these phenomena.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Military Strategy, European Union, and Hybrid Warfare
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, North Atlantic, and North America
1900. Wandering decarbonization: the BRIC countries as conservative climate powers
- Author:
- Eduardo Viola and Larissa Basso
- Publication Date:
- 12-2016
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
- Institution:
- Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
- Abstract:
- This article discusses the role of China, Russia, India and Brazil in the climate regime. It describes the trajectory of their emissions, of their domestic policies and of their international commitments, and argues that, despite their responsibility in causing the problem, they have been conservative forces in the climate regime.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Politics, BRIC, and Decarbonization
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, India, and Brazil