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1701. Managing Global Disorder: Prospects for U.S.-Russian Cooperation

Author:
Council on Foreign Relations
Publication Date:
08-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
While relations between the United States and Russia have deteriorated in recent years, making it exceedingly difficult for both countries to collaborate in managing a variety of common concerns, emerging challenges to global order make such cooperation increasingly imperative. To explore where U.S.-Russia cooperation is desirable and, in some places, even necessary, the Center for Preventive Action at the Council on Foreign Relations convened an international group of twenty-three experts at the Tufts University European Center in Talloires, France, on June 9 and 10, 2017, for the workshop “Managing Global Disorder: Prospects for U.S.-Russian Cooperation.”
Topic:
NATO, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, and North America

1702. Economic Constraints on Russian Foreign Policy

Author:
Christopher Smart
Publication Date:
11-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The recent collapse in the U.S.-Russia relationship has roots that stretch back to fundamental misunderstandings at the end of the Cold War. Western democracies have watched with dismay as tightening political controls in Russia have throttled domestic pluralism, while Moscow’s roughshod foreign policy and military tactics have driven its neighbors into submission or open hostility. Russia has bemoaned what it sees as Western arrogance and a stubborn refusal to recognize its security concerns and great-power status. Today, Russia’s annexation of Crimea, support of Syrian repression, and, above all, meddling in the U.S. presidential election have shattered any desire in Washington—at least outside the Oval Office—to search for common ground. Indeed, amid congressional logjams on nearly every issue, overwhelming bipartisan majorities passed a stiffer sanctions regime. The narrative in Moscow, meanwhile, paints a consistent picture of Washington actively rallying Europeans to expand footholds around Russia’s borders with an ultimate goal of regime change in the Kremlin itself. In spite of President Donald J. Trump’s apparent eagerness to improve relations, deepening resistance across the political spectrum makes any progress fanciful at this stage.Whether either side understands how to get relations back on track remains uncertain. What is clear is that neither side wants to. Deep-seated U.S. mistrust and an unyielding Russian government seem likely to confine the bilateral relationship to a series of sour exchanges and blustery confrontations for now. Yet one persistent weakness will ultimately limit Russia’s foreign agenda: an economy that is likely to fall increasingly behind those of its major neighbors and partners. For now, Russia has largely learned to tolerate Western economic sanctions, and its companies have found ways to live with restricted access to finance. Without reform and economic integration with the West, however, Russian influence will drift toward the margins of global diplomacy. Russia’s economy will atrophy from a combination of hyperconcentrated decision-making, continuing dependence on hydrocarbons, and persistent financial isolation. Core goals of Russia’s foreign policy will steadily recede from view, including important elements of the economic agenda with its immediate neighbors, the European Union and China. Though a snapback of oil prices would undoubtedly delay any day of reckoning, even large new inflows of petro-profits will not fundamentally close the widening gap with major partners.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, International Cooperation, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, and North America

1703. Countering Russian Information Operations in the Age of Social Media

Author:
Keir Giles
Publication Date:
11-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
As investigations into attempts to influence the 2016 U.S. presidential election continue, more aspects of Russia’s approach to information warfare are coming to light. A steady stream of new disclosures is revealing a complex blend of hacking, public disclosures of private emails, and use of bots, trolls, and targeted advertising on social media designed to interfere in political processes and heighten societal tensions. Moscow’s hostile actions are driven by the belief that Russia is already in a state of conflict with the West, led by the United States, and that the internet is a domain for waging this conflict. From the earliest stages of the internet’s development, Russia has held a starkly different view from the West of its benefits and its potential. Russia’s national security establishment immediately saw connectivity as a threat and a potential weapon—and eventually as one that could help achieve regime change and deprive a country of its sovereignty—rather than as an enabler of economic development. The organization of Russia’s information-warfare capabilities, which include cyber operators, media outlets, and false flag entities, is shrouded in secrecy. In the West, generally only the intelligence community has a clear picture of how Russian capabilities are directed. Barring the sudden appearance of a Russian counterpart to Edward Snowden, the only view into Russia’s information toolbox is provided by cybersecurity companies and criminal prosecutions. The picture is further muddied because the Russian government keeps many of its cyberwarfare actors at arm’s length by employing contractors and former criminals through middlemen, giving Moscow a degree of deniability if caught. Nevertheless, both Western governments and private industry can take steps to mitigate Russian influence operations. Western governments should swiftly and decisively denounce Russian information activities as soon as they are identified, and their counterintelligence agencies should identify quantitative means to measure the effectiveness of Russia’s methods. Social media companies should more aggressively police their platforms for malicious state-sponsored content, and they should work with news organizations to promote verified and fact-checked content on their platforms.
Topic:
Cybersecurity, Political stability, Disinformation, and Election Interference
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, and North America

1704. Borders of the Central Asian countries under the international law

Author:
Michal Pietkiewicz
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
In the article the international legal status of the territory, and the territory of the state was ascertained, and the features of the legal status of a state border were identified. The main problem of the thesis is to show the causes of conflicts in determining the borders of the Central Asian states from the perspective of Russian scholars. The main issues of regulating international relations in the sphere of the delimitation of state borders under the international law in Central Asia are outlined.
Topic:
International Law, Borders, State, and Territory
Political Geography:
Russia and Central Asia

1705. Ethnicity and ethnicities Part II

Author:
Shokhrat Kadyrov, Olga Brusina, and Isaac Scarborough
Publication Date:
09-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
Scientific paradigm changes are frequently accompanied by the reconsideration of central terms and ideas. This article demonstrates how this process is currently underway in Russian anthropological studies [narodovedenie] as part of a broader move away from ethnography to theoretical ethnology. The article also shows lines of succession and divergence between various paradigms currently dominant in Russian anthropology, including primordialism and constructivism, and presents the author’s vision of a definition of “ethnicity”, instruments needed to study ethnicities, the nature of “ethnicity,” the underlying axioms on which ethnicities are conceptualized. An initial attempt has been made in the article to outline the central positions that would provide for a principally new ethnological paradigm by way of a new definition of the phenomenon of ethnicity.
Topic:
Ethnicity, Anthropology, and Constructivism
Political Geography:
Russia and Eurasia

1706. Russian direction in the paradiplomacy of Polish local governments

Author:
Wojciech Tomasz Modzelewski
Publication Date:
03-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
Foreign activity (paradiplomacy) of local governments is one of the elements of Polish foreign policy and plays a special, positive role in the process of Polish integration with the European Union. This paper presents the results of the investigations concerning foreign activity of Polish local and regional governments with Russia. In particular, there is intensive cooperation with the Kaliningrad region, the only region bordering Poland and refers to the neighboring provinces of Warmia and Mazury and Pomorskie. Studies have shown, however, that 11 out of the 16 Polish provinces signed agreements with other regions of Russia and only 2 have no cooperation.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Government, International Cooperation, and Partnerships
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, and Poland

1707. A 100-million-dollar fine for Russia's doping policy? A billion-dollar penalty would be more correct!

Author:
Wolfgang Maennig and Helmut Grothe
Publication Date:
11-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg
Abstract:
The so-called McLaren Report disclosed the Russian state-subsidized doping and systematic concealment of positive doping samples, up to and including the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi, Russia. As a result, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) and international sports federations excluded a large proportion of the Russian athletes from the 2016 Summer Olympics in Rio, Brazil. The IOC is still looking for a solution for the 2018 Winter Olympics in South Korea, which will begin in just a few weeks. In addition to the ban of individual Russian athletes, due to a follow-up examination of doping samples, the question remains as to how the Russian sports leadership could be appropriately prosecuted for fraud. One of the proposals is to impose a fine of €100 million on Russia (Simeoni 2017). Such a proposal involves at least two problems. On one hand, the legal basis for such a punishment was unclear for a long time. Until recently, international doping law provided for penalties against specific individual offenders, for example, in the form of competition bans, which are usually temporary, in cases where athletes have been found guilty of doping for the first time. To impose fines, especially on entire national associations, was rather difficult. After all, some of the international sports federations excluded parts of the Russian Olympic team from Rio in 2016 but allowed the remaining Russian athletes to the games only on the condition that the competing Russian Federation bore all the investigation costs.
Topic:
Economics, Sports, Olympics, and Drugs
Political Geography:
Russia

1708. Honing Cyber Attribution

Author:
Justin Key Canfil
Publication Date:
07-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:
Concerns about state-directed cyber intrusions have grown increasingly prevalent in recent years. The idea that state principals can obfuscate their involvement in such attacks by delegating operational tasks to non-state agents poses a particularly significant challenge to international enforcement and remedies. Gaps in international law, coupled with obstacles to detection in such cases, may make it more difficult to bring sponsoring states to justice. This paper offers a roadmap for assessing the propensity of states to delegate to non-state actors and correct for false positives in standard (typically more technical) cyber attack attribution methods. I conclude that the conditions under which attacks are likely to have been backed by sponsoring states occupy a much narrower window than conventional wisdom suggests, and that the universe of transgressors can be identified when standard indicators overlap with specific conditions.
Topic:
Security, Elections, Cybersecurity, and Election Interference
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, and North Am

1709. End Times Diplomacy at the UN?

Author:
Richard Gowan
Publication Date:
07-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:
In her last days at the UN, Samantha Power practiced "end times diplomacy" in anticipation of President Trump but Nikki Haley has followed Power's diplomatic playbook.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, and North America

1710. The Authoritarian Roots of Russian Expansionism

Author:
Sean Clark
Publication Date:
11-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for the Study of Security and Development, Dalhousie University
Abstract:
The central contention here is that Russia's outbursts of international hostility are a reflection of the very nature of the Putin regime. They can be explained as the conscious choice of a regime striving to maintain power, decisions conditioned in turn by deep-seated pathologies that limit the Kremlin's room for maneuver. What follows is a discussion of these constraints, as well as consideration how best to deal with them.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Territorial Disputes, Authoritarianism, and Legitimacy
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, Eastern Europe, and Crimea

1711. Feeling “at Home”: Mechanisms of Social Selection and Homogenization in St. Petersburgian Music Clubs and DJ Bars | « Être comme chez soi » Mécanismes de tri et homogénéisation sociale dans les clubs et bars DJ de Saint-Pétersbourg

Author:
Anna Zaytseva
Publication Date:
03-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cultures & Conflits
Institution:
Cultures & Conflits
Abstract:
Venues for new music styles, some clubs and DJ bars in St.-Petersburg take form as places for gathering for certain milieus. To secure and retain the loyalty of regular patrons, and by extension to ensure the sustainability of the establishment, clubs tenders implement different mechanisms of social homogenization to keep out random or unwelcome visitors. Common techniques include face control, being in hidden locations, the limited diffusion of information, the specificity of music and ambiance, and carelessness for universal standards of service and welcoming. Though they don’t fully constitute exclusive communities, these venues explicitly value an extended social grouping and a sense of secure domesticity which facilitates spontaneous and informal interactions between strangers. From a relative anonymity to a familiarity between “close relations,” a whole range of intermediary situations become possible, thus enabling the emergence of rather new forms of sociability in a post-soviet metropolis.
Topic:
Nightlife and Social Groups
Political Geography:
Russia and Eurasia

1712. A Conservative’s Prescriptive Policy Checklist: U.S. Foreign Policies in the Next Four Years to Shape a New World Order

Author:
Robert D. Blackwill
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
As Donald Trump prepares to enter the presidency, many observers at home and abroad seek to anticipate the outlines of his foreign policy. This essay has a different purpose. Based on the rigorous definition of vital U.S. national interests that follows immediately below, [1] it proposes a prescriptive checklist of U.S. policy steps that would strengthen the domestic base of American external actions; reinforce the U.S. alliance systems in Asia and Europe; meet the Chinese and Russian challenges, while improving the quality of diplomatic exchanges with Beijing and Moscow; reshape U.S. trade policy; gradually pivot from the Middle East to Asia (but not from Europe); maintain the nuclear agreement with Iran; and confront international terrorism more aggressively, but with minimal U.S. boots on the ground in ungoverned areas and without nation building. This list attempts to take into account the President-elect’s public statements on foreign policy, but does not assume that all of them will be manifested after January 20. It rests squarely on the application of the Nixon/Kissinger national interest driven conceptual framework that refined American foreign policy five decades ago to current U.S. challenges and opportunities.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Politics, Terrorism, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Middle East, North Africa, North America, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

1713. Arctic Imperatives: Reinforcing U.S. Strategy on America’s Fourth Coast

Author:
Thad W. Allen, Christine Todd Whitman, and Esther Brimmer
Publication Date:
03-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
"The United States, through Alaska, is a significant Arctic nation with strategic, economic, and scientific interests," asserts a new Council on Foreign Relations-sponsored (CFR) Independent Task Force report, Arctic Imperatives: Reinforcing U.S. Strategy on America's Fourth Coast. With the Arctic "warming at twice the rate as the rest of the planet" and melting sea ice opening up this resource-rich region to new trade routes and commercial activities, the report stresses that "the United States needs to increase its strategic commitment to the region or risk leaving its interests unprotected." The report notes that while Russia has numerous ice-breaking vessels and China is building a third icebreaker, the United States owns only two operational icebreaking ships—one heavy icebreaker and one medium-weight icebreaker—to serve both the Arctic and the Antarctic. Asserting that "icebreakers are a national capacity" required for a range of maritime missions to support U.S. security, economic, and commercial needs, the Task Force recommends that the United States fund and build additional icebreakers. The report also finds that the United States needs greater investment in Alaskan infrastructure, including deepwater ports, roads, and reliable telecommunications, to support economic development and a sustained security presence in the region. Currently, "almost no marine infrastructure is in place within the U.S. maritime Arctic."
Topic:
Climate Change, International Trade and Finance, Infrastructure, Hegemony, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Asia, North America, Arctic, and United States of America

1714. Policy and Legislative Challenges to Non-Discrimination, Minority Protection and Diversity Issues in Ukraine

Author:
Iryna Solonenko
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Case Study
Institution:
European Centre for Minority Issues
Abstract:
Ukraine is a country populated by many national groups. As recorded in the 2001 census, the main national groups2 living in Ukraine (apart from Ukrainians, which constitute the majority) include: - Russians 8,334,100 (17.3%) - Belarusians 275,800 (0.6%) - Moldovans 258,600 (0.5%) - Crimean Tatars 248,200 (0.5%) - Bulgarians 204,600 (0.4%). Ukraine also has smaller populations of Polish, Jewish, Romanian, Armenian, Hungarian, and other groups; altogether 100 different national groups according to the census. In some territories of Ukraine national minorities live so compactly that in some settlements (towns or villages) they comprise the majority or over one-third of the population. This is the case in the Transcarpathian, Chernivtsi, and Odesa oblasts (regions), as well as in Crimean Autonomous Republic, which was annexed by Russia in March 2014. As in many countries, ethnic and linguistic borders do not necessarily align in Ukraine: many of those who think of themselves as belonging to certain national groups (as reported by 2001 census), speak another language. Thus, although 4.6% of the Ukrainian population reported they belonged to a national group other than Ukrainian or Russian, only 2.9% named a language other than Ukrainian or Russian as their native language. Only 0.1% of them considered Ukrainian to be their native language. Between 1% and 89% of them (depending on ethnicity) consider Russian to be their native language. For instance, among Hungarians this share is 1% and among Greeks it is up to 89%. While 17% of the Ukrainian population said they were of Russian ethnic affiliation, 26.6% named Russian as their native language, indicating that a share of people who consider themselves to be of non-Russian ethnic affiliation regard Russian as their native language.
Topic:
Nationalism, Minorities, Ethnicity, and Language
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Crimea

1715. Radicalization Among Muslim Minorities and State Response to Terrorism : Comparative Analysis of Britain and Russia

Author:
Utkur Yakhsiboev
Publication Date:
11-2017
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
European Centre for Minority Issues
Abstract:
This working paper is a comparative analysis of Muslim communities in the UK and Russia. Radicalization as a process and the factors for radicalization among Muslim communities in both countries are analyzed to detect the similarities and differences. Both states’ engagement in hard-line policies to tackle Islamic terrorism increases the use of undemocratic measures enhanced by the legal system of each state. Those measures are counter-productive; the social movement theory and the rational choice theory are used to emphasize that the radicalization leading to violence is a political movement intertwined with Islam.
Topic:
Religion, Minorities, Radicalization, Discrimination, and Violence
Political Geography:
Britain, Russia, and Europe

1716. Beyond NORAD and Modernization to North American Defence Evolution

Author:
Andrea Charron and James Fergusson
Publication Date:
05-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:
While most attention on NORAD and North American defence cooperation is focused on the modernization of the North Warning System (NWS), significant developments have occurred that suggest modernization will be accompanied by significant evolutionary changes to the Command. The new threat environment, centered upon Russian behaviour in Crimea, Ukraine and Syria, a new Russian strategic doctrine, and a new generation of advanced Russian long-range cruise missiles dictate not only layered, multi-sensor early warning system, but also changes in NORAD command arrangements. In addition, the maritime component of the cruise missile threat, alongside continuing concerns of terrorists employing freighters as cruise missile platforms, raise the question whether NORAD should evolve into a binational air-maritime defence command. These considerations are central to the ongoing Evolution of North American Defence (EVONAD) study, emanating from the Canada-US Permanent Joint Board on Defence, under the lead of NORAD, in collaboration with the Canadian Joint Operations Command (CJOC) and US Northern Command (the tri-command structure). The final result is difficult to predict. However, it is clear that both modernization and evolution will be driven by the militaries engaged, with civilian authorities guiding the process, and the public and Canadian government not paying attention.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Regional Cooperation, Modernization, and Non-Traditional Threats
Political Geography:
Russia and North America

1717. Between Russia and the West: Belarus as a Challenge for European Stability and Security

Author:
Anna Kuleszewicz
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
This paper aims to explain that the stable situation of Belarus is important for Western Europe and why any fluctuations may present a challenge for European integrity and stability. Belarus, since the beginning of its independence in 1991 seems to show a great willingness to cooperate closely with Russia, claiming Western Europe and NATO as a potential enemy. In reality, the Belarusian position is much more complicated and ambiguous. Despite it’s close military cooperation with Russia, different tensions between Minsk and Moscow regularly happen and Belarusian authorities are still looking for new foreign partners and new energy suppliers (what was clearly visible in the last months of 2016 and the first period of 2017). Russia, old Belarusian partner, may actually even pose a threat for Belarus, so the country’s authorities have a hard challenge to maintain its stability. Western countries may be open for a new chapter of cooperation with Minsk but any rapid changes in Belarusian foreign preferences may result in unpredictable results and Moscow reaction that – in turn – would be very challenging for the whole European stability and security
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Russia

1719. USA/Russia politics: Feint praise

Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Country Data and Maps
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
No abstract is available.
Topic:
Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:
Russia and United States

1722. Russia politics: Putin's family values

Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Country Data and Maps
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
No abstract is available.
Topic:
Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:
Russia

1731. Russia/Serbia politics: Russian overtures

Publication Date:
02-2017
Content Type:
Country Data and Maps
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
No abstract is available.
Topic:
Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:
Russia and Serbia

1732. Russia politics: Whispers from the Kremlin

Publication Date:
03-2017
Content Type:
Country Data and Maps
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
No abstract is available.
Topic:
Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:
Russia

1735. Russia/South Africa politics: Say my name

Publication Date:
03-2017
Content Type:
Country Data and Maps
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
No abstract is available.
Topic:
Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:
Russia and South Africa

1737. Russia/MEA politics: Desert bear

Publication Date:
03-2017
Content Type:
Country Data and Maps
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
No abstract is available.
Topic:
Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:
Russia

1740. US/Russia politics: Never-ending story

Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Country Data and Maps
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
No abstract is available.
Topic:
Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:
Russia and United States

1744. Russia politics: Republic of fear

Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Country Data and Maps
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
No abstract is available.
Topic:
Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:
Russia

1747. Russia/Sweden politics: The putative Mr Putilov

Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Country Data and Maps
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
No abstract is available.
Topic:
Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:
Russia and Sweden

1750. Russia politics: Badgering the Witnesses

Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Country Data and Maps
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
No abstract is available.
Topic:
Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:
Russia

1752. Turkey/Russia politics: Brothers in arms

Publication Date:
05-2017
Content Type:
Country Data and Maps
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
No abstract is available.
Topic:
Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:
Russia and Turkey

1757. Russia/Europe politics: Mr Putin flexes his muscles

Publication Date:
08-2017
Content Type:
Country Data and Maps
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
No abstract is available.
Topic:
Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:
Russia

1758. Russia politics: A new government inspector

Publication Date:
08-2017
Content Type:
Country Data and Maps
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
No abstract is available.
Topic:
Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:
Russia

1762. World politics: Quick View – BRICS unlikely to result in major breakthroughs

Publication Date:
09-2017
Content Type:
Country Data and Maps
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
No abstract is available.
Topic:
International Relations, Politics, News Analysis, and Forecast
Political Geography:
Russia, China, India, Tajikistan, South Africa, Brazil, Egypt, Mexico, Thailand, and Guinea

1768. The Plutonium Disposition Management Agreement: Russia’s Withdrawal and the Possible Consequences

Author:
Debalina Ghoshal
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Council on International Policy (CIP)
Abstract:
InOctober2016,RussianPresidentVladmirPutin suspendedthePlutoniumDispositionManagementAgreement (PDMA) that mandated both the United States and Russia to eliminate a sufficient quantity of weapons grade plutonium. The suspension of the PDMA represents a step away toward achieving nuclear disarmament, a crucial component of the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty (NPT) under Article VI.
Topic:
International Security and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Russia and Global Focus

1769. Tolerating the “Intolerable Partner:” Once Shunned, Bulgaria’s United Patriots Joins the Governing Coalition

Author:
John R. Haines
Publication Date:
05-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:
Several weeks after winning a plurality in Bulgaria’s late March parliamentary election, Prime Minister Boyko Borissov did something unprecedented: he brought the nationalist United Patriots (Obedineni Patrioti) into his coalition government. The United Patriots is an electoral alliance of three parties, the IMRO[2]-Bulgarian National Movement (VMRO-Bulgarsko Natsionalno Dvizhenie), the National Front for the Salvation of Bulgaria (Natzionalen Front za Spasenie na Bulgaria), and Attack (Attaka). Their inclusion in the coalition government has given rise to concern among Bulgaria’s NATO allies (and many Bulgarian themselves) about what the Bulgarian Socialist Party’s Korneliya Ninova called Mr. Borissov’s “floating majority, his unprincipled alliance”[3] (plavashti mnozinstva, bezprintsipni sŭyuzi). That concern is well placed for several reasons. Only a few years ago, even the nationalist IMRO-BND and NFSB excluded the radical Ataka[4] from their electoral alliance dubbed the “Patriotic Front” (Patriotichen front) because of Ataka’s positions on Russia and NATO. Even then, however, the Patriotic Front’s “nationalist profile” (natsionalisticheskiyat profil) was so far to Bulgaria’s political right to cause Mr. Borissov to exclude the Patriotic Front from his coalition government. He did so with the active encouragement of his center-right European People’s Party allies across the European Union. “Nothing against the PF, but unfortunately the things Valeri Simeonov [a PF leader, more about whom anon] proposes do not correspond to our Euro-Atlantic orientation,” said Mr. Borissov at the time.[5]
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Nationalism
Political Geography:
Russia and Bulgaria

1770. Birds of a Feather: As Viktor Orbán’s Cronies Unload on President Trump, Orbán Sidles Up to President Putin

Author:
John R. Haines
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:
The Hungarian proverb Madarat tolláról, embert barátjáról translates roughly as “You can tell a bird by its feathers, and a person by his friends.” If so, it says much about Hungarian President Viktor Orbán. Russian President Vladimir Putin was asked during a 12 April interview with Russia’s MIR television and radio network whether “relations deteriorated with Trump in office from what they were under his predecessor?” He answered, “We could say that at the working level, the degree of trust has dropped, especially in the military area. It has not improved and has probably worsened.”[1] Mr. Putin premised this appraisal with an extended dissemble about “several versions” about “the chemical attack in Syria’s Idlib province, which led to the US air strike on a Syrian air base:”
Topic:
International Cooperation, International Affairs, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Russia and Hungary

1771. Russia’s Evolving South Caucasus Policy Security Concerns amid Ethno-political Conflicts

Author:
Sergey Markedonov
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
The South Caucasus continues to be critically important to Eurasian security. The outbreak of fighting in April 2016 between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the breakaway republic of Nagorno-Karabakh introduced new uncertainty and confrontation to the region. Russia’s policies here are crucial, as they are in the region’s other ethno-political conflicts, in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Sergey Markedonov offers an insider’s perspective on the Kremlin’s involvement in the region, highlighting its security concerns and stressing that Russia is not taking a universal approach to all of the post-Soviet conflict zones. While the “Western” political and expert community often assumes that territorial revisionism is a kind of idée fixe within Russia, this is far from the case. Each situation demands an indi- vidual response from Moscow, as it weighs and pursues its own interests. This in turn explains the improbability of “Crimean situations” multiplying in the South Caucasus. The region undoubtedly harbors risks of confrontation – not only between Russia and the countries of the immediate region but also with such large powers as the US, the EU, Turkey, and Iran – but it also holds several opportunities for cooperation.
Topic:
International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Russia

1772. Russia’s Active Campaign in Ukraine

Author:
Benjamin Knudsen, Alexandra Lariiciuc, and Franklin Holcomb
Publication Date:
05-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:
Russia has continued its destabilization campaign in Ukraine using its proxy forces and other means of subversion. The Trump Administration has indicated it is willing to support Ukraine as the Eastern European country faces Russian aggression. President Trump must act to strengthen the U.S.-Ukraine partnership and increase pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin as part of a broader campaign to deter Russian aggression globally. U.S. officials emphasized their support for Ukraine in a series of diplomatic meetings in May. U.S. President Donald Trump held separate meetings with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin in Washington on May 10 during which he reportedly stressed “Russia’s responsibility to fully implement the Minsk agreements.” This rhetoric echoes previous statements by Trump administration officials. U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said the U.S. will maintain sanctions against Russia “until Moscow reverses the actions that triggered them.”
Topic:
War
Political Geography:
Russia and Ukraine

1773. Russia’s Unrelenting Attacks On Syrian Civilians

Author:
Genevieve Casagrande
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:
Russia’s campaign against Syrian civilians continued undeterred by the U.S. strike on April 6 in response to the Bashar al-Assad regime’s use of chemical weapons in southern Idlib. Local reports indicate Russia regularly used incendiary munitions and bunker buster munitions in Idlib and Aleppo Provinces in order to inflict mass casualties on the population in rebel-held terrain following the U.S. strike. Russian airstrikes also targeted local civilian infrastructure from April 4 - 25, including hospitals, schools, mosques, and civil defense centers across Syria. Russia continually targeted Khan Shaykhoun, the site of the regime’s chemical attack on April 4, throughout the reporting period. Furthermore, activists claimed Russia targeted a hospital and civil defense center treating those wounded in Khan Shaykhoun immediately following the regime’s sarin gas attack. The use of chemical weapons is just one of many means the pro-regime coalition has to punish anti-Assad populations in Syria. Russia remains a principal contributor to President Assad’s purposeful campaign to target Syrian civilians. The Assad regime has a long history of violence against its own people, but the advanced capabilities Russia has brought to theater have allowed the pro-regime coalition to target civilians with even greater precision.
Topic:
Human Rights and War
Political Geography:
Russia and Syria

1774. Russia politics: Arms and the man

Publication Date:
09-2017
Content Type:
Country Data and Maps
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
No abstract is available.
Topic:
Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:
Russia

1776. Russia politics: Quick View - Putin visits Ashgabat

Publication Date:
10-2017
Content Type:
Country Data and Maps
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
No abstract is available.
Topic:
International Relations, Politics, News Analysis, and Forecast
Political Geography:
Russia

1782. Europe politics: Russia’s role in the western Balkans

Publication Date:
10-2017
Content Type:
Country Data and Maps
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
No abstract is available.
Topic:
International Relations, Politics, News Analysis, and Forecast
Political Geography:
Russia, Serbia, Macedonia, Albania, Montenegro, and Bosnia and Herzegovina

1784. Russia politics: Partisan campaign

Publication Date:
10-2017
Content Type:
Country Data and Maps
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
No abstract is available.
Topic:
Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:
Russia

1785. Russia politics: Enter Tsar Vladimir

Publication Date:
10-2017
Content Type:
Country Data and Maps
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
No abstract is available.
Topic:
Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:
Russia

1787. Russia/India/China economy: The big squeeze

Publication Date:
11-2017
Content Type:
Country Data and Maps
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
No abstract is available.
Topic:
Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:
Russia, China, and India

1789. Russia politics: Quick View - Putin dismisses 11 governors

Publication Date:
11-2017
Content Type:
Country Data and Maps
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
No abstract is available.
Topic:
Politics, News Analysis, Forecast, and Political stability
Political Geography:
Russia

1794. Russia/UK/EU politics: Londongrad

Publication Date:
11-2017
Content Type:
Country Data and Maps
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
No abstract is available.
Topic:
Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:
Russia and United Kingdom

1796. How is the Battle for Deir Ezzor Impacting Russia-Iran Convergence?

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
11-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
Russia recently conducted military strikes on several fronts in Deir Ezzor province in eastern Syria, especially to the south in the border town of Boukamal. These strikes were conducted to retake ISIS’ last strong- holds in Syria after the liberation of Raqqa, the group’s de facto capital, in mid-October by the so-called Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish-led militia. The militia, backed the US-led coalition, controls the east side of the Euphrates river in Deir Ezzor and now is in a frantic race with al-Assad’s forces to recapture Boukamal, where Russia’s use of air and naval re- power aims to settle the battle and consolidate its presence ahead of the coming political milestones in Syria.
Topic:
International Cooperation and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Russia and Iran

1797. FIFA World Cup in Russia: Internal and International Aspects

Author:
Anna Maria Dyner
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
With the International Olympic Committee excluding the Russian national team from the 2018 Winter Olympics in South Korea, the importance for Russia’s authorities of the FIFA World Cup is increasing. World Cup competition will be held from 14 June to 15 July 2018. The tournament will be used in Russia’s internal politics, especially in the presidential campaign, and in relations with other countries to strengthen bilateral contacts and portray Russia as a country with a strong international position.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Russia

1798. World politics: Quick View - Inaugural Belt and Road Forum held in Beijing

Publication Date:
05-2017
Content Type:
Country Data and Maps
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
No abstract is available.
Topic:
Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:
Uganda, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Kenya, Russia, Japan, China, Iran, Indonesia, Malaysia, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Vietnam, Philippines, Djibouti, Cambodia, Saudi Arabia, Turkmenistan, Tanzania, Ethiopia, Bahrain, Qatar, Thailand, Rwanda, Oman, United Arab Emirates, Laos, and Myanmar

1799. World politics: Progress and next steps for China's Belt and Road Initiative

Publication Date:
05-2017
Content Type:
Country Data and Maps
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
No abstract is available.
Topic:
Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:
Uganda, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Kenya, Russia, China, Iran, Sudan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Turkey, Ukraine, India, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Greece, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Poland, Lithuania, Vietnam, Philippines, Djibouti, Sri Lanka, Estonia, Armenia, Cambodia, Saudi Arabia, Azerbaijan, Nepal, Serbia, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Turkmenistan, Georgia, Tanzania, Croatia, Latvia, Egypt, Bahrain, Qatar, Singapore, Thailand, Rwanda, Oman, Hong Kong, United Arab Emirates, Laos, Myanmar, Slovenia, Slovakia, Belarus, and Brunei

1800. Ukraine/Russia politics: Theatre of war

Publication Date:
05-2017
Content Type:
Country Data and Maps
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
No abstract is available.
Topic:
Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:
Russia and Ukraine