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1892. Donald Trump and US-Russian relations Geopolitical Bromance or Business-as-Usual?
- Author:
- Flemming Splidsboel Hansen
- Publication Date:
- 10-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- The Russian regime is ready to re-set its troubled relationship with the USA. While hopes are high, specific expectations are lower and the Trump presidency may eventually offer Russia a smaller action space than suggested by the campaign statements. The 2016 US presidential election was unusually dramatic. Part of the drama was allegedly provided by the Russian authorities as some of their state-spon- sored hackers broke into servers of the Democratic National Committee and released compromising emails immediately prior to the July 2016 Democratic Party Convention.
- Topic:
- Elections, Geopolitics, and Key players to watchPolitics
- Political Geography:
- Russia and America
1893. With Trump, US-China relations are no longer business as usual China may stand to gain from a Trump presidency
- Author:
- Andreas Bøje Forsby
- Publication Date:
- 10-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Relations between Washington and Beijing are likely to face major change once Donald Trump takes over the White House. This DIIS Policy Brief by Andreas Bøje Forsby offers an overview of US-China relations and how they are likely to develop with Donald Trump in the Oval Office. If Trump follows through on his protectionist campaign statements, China will be targeted by economic sanctions against its export industries. In most other respects, however, the Chinese may actually come to benefit from a Trump presidency, whose ‘America First’ slogan suggests a more self-centered, even neo-isolationist US foreign policy. Most importantly, a Trump administration is unlikely to sustain key elements of the US rebalance to Asia like the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the efforts to build a strategic network of like-minded states in the region to counter the rise of China.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy, Elections, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Russia and America
1894. NEIGHBOURING AN UNPREDICTABLE RUSSIA Implications for Finland
- Author:
- Toivo Martikainen, Katri Pynnöniemi, and Sinikukka Saari
- Publication Date:
- 11-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Russia has perceived itself as a great power and has sought international acknowledgement of its status for years. The fact that Moscow regards the post-Soviet space as its sphere of ‘privileged interests’ and the sovereignty of the other post-Soviet states as subordinate to Russia’s national interests is nothing new. Likewise, Russia has persistently objected to the dominant role played by the US in world politics, and the enlargement of NATO. It has attempted to influence the security policy orientation and political choices made by post-Soviet states, and other states neighbouring Russia, such as Finland. These goals are well-established and are likely to remain fundamentally un- changed for years to come.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Affairs, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Finland
1895. State-led Nationalism In Today's Russia: Uniting The People with Conservative Values?
- Author:
- Veera Laine
- Publication Date:
- 10-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- In recent years, the Russian state has been described as becoming “more nationalistic”. In the time period encompassing the Sochi Winter Olympics, the occupation of Crimea, the war in Donbas that continues to this day, air strikes in Syria, and the state seeking new legitimacy during the deepening economic crisis in Russia, many notions have been connected to growing nationalism. But nationalism as such is an ambiguous concept. Moreover, there is hardly any state in today’s global system that could be said to be totally devoid of nationalistic argumentation. Therefore, the way in which the Russian state leadership is using nationalism in order to achieve its political goals requires a critical empirical study. Authoritarianism, conservatism, and even imperialism have been discussed as “new” features of the Russian state. But the change in the self-understanding of the Russian state is not a result of one factor, such as strengthening national pride, but rather a wide range of ideas that have been reshuffled in relation to each other. This Working Paper focuses on the state-led nationalism in this changing ideational environment between the years 2012 and 2016, and how it has been received by the people.
- Topic:
- Nationalism, International Affairs, Power Politics, Authoritarianism, and Neoimperialism
- Political Geography:
- Russia
1896. Russia's 2016 Duma Elections: Ambiguous triumph and new challenges for the regime
- Author:
- Kirill Rogov
- Publication Date:
- 11-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The recent 2016 Duma elections were planned by the Kremlin to attest to the fact that the period of troubled political development – which began during the previous 2011 Duma elections – is over. Further, the elections served to test Putin’s consolidated authoritarianism on the eve of the forthcoming presidential elections in 2018. While successful in terms of preserving full control over the new Duma, the election results nevertheless demonstrated that the patriotic enthusiasm evoked by the annexation of Crimea has largely been exhausted. The pressure on the opposition, new electoral rules and reliance on regions with so-called “administrative voting” secured a victory for the party of power, but in urban regions the turnout was very low and voting for the Kremlin’s party did not differ much from 2011 patterns. Although the direct effect of the economic crisis on people’s political attitudes is still moderate, the continued long-term stagnation in the Russian economy that started even before the fall in energy prices remains the major challenge for regime stability. Ambiguous election results force the Kremlin to seek new instruments of political consolidation. The Kremlin’s most probable strategy may be to combine toughening authoritarian institutions with maintaining high tension in the international arena in order to prolong the ‘rally around the flag’ effect domestically, by attempting or promising “authoritarian modernization” to gain support in urban regions. As the presidential election date approaches, both Putin’s foreign and economic policies could become even riskier than they have been to date.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Political Economy, International Affairs, Elections, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Russia
1897. Evaluating Western Sanctions on Russia
- Author:
- Sergey Aleksashenko
- Publication Date:
- 12-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- It has been more than two years since the European Union (EU) and the United States (US) imposed economic sanctions on Russia for its aggression in Ukraine. For some of the measures, though not all, that is time enough to evaluate effectiveness. But before such an assessment can be made, the initial goals of the sanctions should be clearly stated. This is not as straightforward as it might seem.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Security, Sanctions, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, America, and European Union
1898. US And Russia: Insecurity and Mistrust Shape Mutual Perceptions
- Author:
- Dina Smeltz, Stepan Goncharov, and Lily Wojtowicz
- Publication Date:
- 11-2016
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Chicago Council on Global Affairs
- Abstract:
- A breakdown in cooperation between the United States and Russia in Syria, disputes over bilateral arms control agreements, and official US allegations of Russian cyber-meddling in the US presidential election have increased bilateral tensions. Most recently, the Kremlin ended participation in a joint agreement with the United States to eliminate both countries’ excess stocks of weapons grade plutonium. Yet even before these recent developments, increasingly frosty diplomatic relations seem to have taken their toll on mutual perceptions in public opinion.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Security, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Russia and America
1899. A Few Words on Real Russia
- Author:
- Yan Vaslavsky
- Publication Date:
- 01-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Rethinking Russia
- Abstract:
- Vladimir Putin delivered his Annual Presidential Address to the Federal Assembly at St. George’s Hall of the Great Kremlin Palace on December 1. The state-of-the- nation address is regarded as a major speech over a 12-month period. It usually recounts the progress and outlines national priorities and the development agenda for the near future. This format is not unique1, but it tends to command attention of the general public at home and abroad as well as of parliamentarians to whom, judging by its very name, it is addressed.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Cooperation, International Security, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Global Focus
1900. Vyacheslav Volodin to head CSTO Parliamentary Assembly. Some thoughts on popular roots of political support
- Author:
- Matthew Crosston
- Publication Date:
- 01-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Rethinking Russia
- Abstract:
- Vyacheslav Volodin was elected as head of the Collective Security Treaty Organization’s Parliamentary Assembly during the 9th Plenary Session of the CSTO’s PA in St. Petersburg on November 24th. Thus concludes a relatively fast and interesting transition personally for the influential Volodin, who in just three months has gone from the first deputy chief of President Putin’s staff in the Kremlin to being elected to the Russian Duma from his native Saratov to quickly becoming that body’s Speaker, officially putting him fourth in line in terms of Russian political power, behind the President, Prime Minister, and speaker of the Federation Council, the upper chamber of the national parliament.
- Topic:
- International Affairs, Political Theory, and Political Power Sharing
- Political Geography:
- Russia