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302. How the United States Should Respond if Russia Invades Ukraine
- Author:
- Max Bergmann
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for American Progress - CAP
- Abstract:
- A Russian invasion of Ukraine must come at a high cost to the Kremlin.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, North America, and United States of America
303. Mercenary Fighters in Libya and Ukraine: How Social Media Are Exposing the Russian Wagner Group
- Author:
- Biancamaria Vallortigara
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- This issue of Bee-Hive explores the emerging reports of Libyan mercenaries involved in the current conflict in Ukraine.
- Topic:
- Social Media, Wagner Group, Mercenaries, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, Libya, and North Africa
304. The Ukraine War and the Middle East: The Rich Get Richer and the Poor Get Poorer
- Author:
- Paul Rivlin
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In our latest issue of Iqtisadi, Paul Rivlin examines several economic issues occurring simultaneously in the Middle East and North Africa region mainly as a result of the Ukraine-Russia war. Higher oil prices are good for some countries and bad for others.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Oil, Economy, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Middle East
305. Eighth sanctions package: Which side will be the economic loser?
- Author:
- Nigar Islamli
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
- Abstract:
- Since February 24, 2022, Russia's invasion policy towards Ukraine has been tried to be prevented by several series of sanctions by the European Union. These sanctions include trade, travel, asset freezes, oil, transport, and SWIFT bans. Since the start of the war, 7 sanctions packages have been presented and many of them are being implemented. In response to Russia's invasion policy against Ukraine, the European Commission presented the eighth package of sanctions covering visa issues and asset freezes.
- Topic:
- Economics, Sanctions, European Union, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
306. Assessment of the role of Caspian Basin in reducing of EU's oil dependence in the light of Russian Ukraine War
- Author:
- CESD Research Team
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
- Abstract:
- In the background of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, European Union (EU) agreed to ban the overwhelming majority of Russian oil imports. Since the beginning of the invasion, the West decided to make Moscow pay economically for its aggression. Nevertheless, the decision aimed at the energy sector was quite challenging since the bloc relies on Russia for 25% of its oil and 40% of its natural gas.
- Topic:
- Oil, European Union, Imports, Russia-Ukraine War, and Energy Sector
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Caspian Sea
307. Assessment of Initial Impacts of Western Sanctions against Russia: Effects for Azerbaijani Economy
- Author:
- Emin Mammadov
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
- Abstract:
- Repercussions of the western sanctions on the Russian economy increasingly arise that negatively affect the total economic structure. National GDP shrank by 4.3% in the first quarter of the current year. As forecasted by the Russian Central Bank following the exposure to sanctions, a 7 percent reduction in the GDP could be expected in the third quarter. Russian ruble lost its value by 7 percent against the dollar in less than a month which even resulted in an inevitable devaluation in the official exchange rate.
- Topic:
- Sanctions, Economy, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Azerbaijan
308. Potential Expansion of the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC): New Realities and Opportunities
- Author:
- Nigar Islamli
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
- Abstract:
- The article clarifies the directions in which the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) can be expanded and gas can be transported to how many countries. For the expansion of the SGC, countries such as Bulgaria, Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Romania are studied in this paper. The issue of reducing Europe's 40% dependence on Russian gas and Europe's search for alternative energy sources and the expansion of the Southern Gas Corridor, one of the largest gas export projects to Europe, are on the agenda. In addition, the threat of several European countries - Poland, Bulgaria, Finland, the Netherlands, and Denmark - refused to pay for Russian gas in rubles, and as a result, the supply of gas is cut off.
- Topic:
- Gas, Exports, and Energy Dependence
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Poland, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, and Czech Republic
309. Azerbaijani Gas Export to Europe: What Advantages Are There?
- Author:
- CESD Research Team
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
- Abstract:
- Following Russia's decision to restrict natural gas exports to Poland and Bulgaria, energy security has become a priority in the European Union. Although the ancient continent is trying to increase gas imports from alternative sources, Gazprom is still trying to maintain its dominance in Europe for some time. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan continues to increase natural gas production. In the first quarter of this year, Azerbaijan produced 11.8 billion cubic meters of natural gas. 3.5 billion cubic meters of gas were produced from ACG, 6.4 billion cubic meters from Shah Deniz, and 1.9 billion cubic meters from SOCAR. During that period, gas exports amounted to 5.9 billion cubic meters. 2.2 billion cubic meters of gas were exported to Turkey, 2.6 billion cubic meters to Europe, and 1.1 billion cubic meters to Georgia. More than 4 billion cubic meters of gas were transported to Turkey via TANAP during this period.
- Topic:
- European Union, Gas, Exports, Russia-Ukraine War, and Energy Sector
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Poland, Azerbaijan, and Bulgaria
310. Potential Impacts of Sanctions against Russia on the Non-oil Exports of Azerbaijan
- Author:
- Eldayag Mustafayev
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
- Abstract:
- By using statistical descriptive analysis, this article analyzes how the isolation of Russia from the international trade and finance system, as a result of the Western sanctions, will affect the Russian trade turnover and what type of future challenges and opportunities it may provide for the non-oil export base of Azerbaijan. In terms of the opportunities, Azerbaijan can further focus on its main non-oil export goods such as agricultural and chemical industrial products to capture an additional share in the semi-abandoned Russian market, along with considering possible competition pressure coming from the other non-western Russian trade partners. Re-exporting opportunities currently are limited in scale and have a risk of facing international sanctions and criticism.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance, Sanctions, Exports, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Azerbaijan
311. How Will Coal Sanctions Impact on Russian Economy?
- Author:
- CESD Research Team
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
- Abstract:
- The Western Alliance has approved a new package of sanctions against Russia. The most notable of the sanctions is the suspension of coal exports from Russia. What does this mean for Russia, and how can the European Union compensate for this ban? Yesterday, the European Commission posted a decision on sanctions on its website, which means that the ban will come into force. This means that from today, European companies will not be able to conclude contracts to buy coal from Russia. The contracts signed in the previous period must be completed by August.
- Topic:
- Sanctions, European Union, Economy, Exports, Coal, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Europe
312. Reducing European Dependence on Russian Gas: Challenges and New Alternatives
- Author:
- Nigar Islamli
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
- Abstract:
- The Russia-Ukraine war has revealed energy reliance between the European Union and Russia as an issue. In addition to the dependence of the European Union (EU) on Russia, particularly in the sphere of energy, it did not alleviate but rather aggravated, Europe's and Russia's security worries about each other. All happenings raise this question: Can the European Union eliminate its dependence on Russian gas? Is it possible? If possible, for how long can this dependence be eliminated?
- Topic:
- European Union, Gas, Energy Dependence, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Europe
313. The Economic Consequences of Russia-Ukraine War for Azerbaijan
- Author:
- Emin Mammadov
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
- Abstract:
- The past three decades of independence demonstrate that Russia remains a strategically economic and political partner, and multidirectional relations between two parties historically were of crucial importance. In the year 2021, total trade turnover between Russia and Azerbaijan accounted for 2.295 bln USD with a 12% upsurge recovering to pre-pandemic levels. Russia ranked as the 3hd largest trade partner of Azerbaijan in 2021 following Italy and Turkey and the share of trade with Russia alone made up 8.83% of the total in this period.
- Topic:
- Politics, Economy, Trade, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Azerbaijan
314. Blowback from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
- Author:
- Sarah Cliffe, Leah Zamore, and James Traub
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation
- Abstract:
- While the Ukrainian army and people continue to resist, the costs of Russia's invasion in human terms are mounting. As of March 15, the United Nations (UN) had verified 1,900 civilian casualties, including 726 deaths (fifty of them children), as Russia intensifies its assault on civilian targets, seizes the Zaporizhzhia nuclear site, lays siege to Mariupol which is without food, energy, or water in freezing temperatures, continues to threaten Kyiv, begins a push on Odesa and assaults Kharkiv with heavy and indiscriminate shelling.
- Topic:
- Security, War Crimes, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
315. How to Maintain International Unity on Ukraine (Part II)
- Author:
- Sarah Cliffe, Hanny Megally, Karina Gerlach, Faiza Shaheen, and Leah Zamore
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation
- Abstract:
- This piece is the second part to our analysis published in early April on what it would take to maintain international unity on Ukraine. In the first analysis, we noted the large number of countries that abstained from or voted against the resolution suspending Russia’s membership in the United Nations (UN) Human Rights Council, including nine out of the ten most populous countries in the world.
- Topic:
- United Nations, Conflict, Multilateralism, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
316. Development Competition is Heating Up: China’s Global Development Initiative and the G7 Partnership for Infrastructure and Global Alliance on Food Security
- Author:
- Sarah Cliffe and Karina Gerlach
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation
- Abstract:
- Economic development issues are becoming increasingly geopolitical, as the form and importance of today’s agreement in Turkey on grain exports between Russia and Ukraine demonstrates. While today’s crucial agreement and the war of food security narratives between Russia and the West rightly grab the latest headlines, outside of the media spotlight development competition is also heating up between China and the West.
- Topic:
- Development, Infrastructure, Food Security, Strategic Competition, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Turkey, and Ukraine
317. The Ukraine Example: Circumstances Matter for Effective Security Assistance
- Author:
- Ethan Kessler
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Chicago Council on Global Affairs
- Abstract:
- US aid would not have been nearly as effective without Ukraine’s efforts to improve its military prior to the 2022 Russian invasion. US security assistance to Ukraine since Russia’s all-out invasion in February 2022 has been substantial, but was not sufficient to guarantee Ukraine’s initial military success in the war. Data reveals that US security assistance to Ukraine, which mainly consisted of nonproliferation-related aid before 2014, increased after Russia’s invasion of Crimea that year. However, Ukraine’s failures against Russia in Crimea and later in eastern Ukraine were largely due to an undermanned, underequipped, and undertrained Ukrainian military. Ukraine’s focus on remedying these problems, along with increased combat experience, principally drove Ukrainian military improvements by 2022. These internal changes, as well as Russia’s poor military organization and force employment in the first phase of its 2022 invasion, are essential for understanding the contributions of US equipment and weapons to Ukrainian military successes. These lessons are instructive not only for US security assistance to Ukraine, but also for the many other settings where US security assistance is a prominent policy tool.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and United States of America
318. Memo on an "Economic Article 5" to Counter Authoritarian Coercion
- Author:
- Ivo H. Daalder and Anders Fogh Rasmussen
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Chicago Council on Global Affairs
- Abstract:
- The world's democracies need a way to fight back against coercive economic actions by authoritarian governments, argue Ivo Daalder and Anders Fogh Rasmussen. Increasingly, authoritarian countries are using economic coercion against democracies. In recent years, China’s economic coercion of Lithuania and Australia stands out as a prominent example. Russia uses economic levers to achieve geopolitical aims, notably by weaponizing its natural resources. The aim of such coercion is to bend the will of democratic countries. This is a test for the free world. In response, we propose an Economic Article 5 among democracies to counter authoritarian coercion.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Authoritarianism, Economy, Business, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
319. La contribución de España a la OTAN: el Flanco Este y sus relaciones con Rusia
- Author:
- Mateo Moreno Barahona and Alberto Priego
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
- Institution:
- International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
- Abstract:
- España se integra en la OTAN, en 1982. Sin embargo, debido a diferentes cuestiones, España ha mantenido una relación privilegiada con Rusia y no siempre ha seguido la línea marcada por la OTAN. Este artículo ofrece un caso de estudio sobre en qué medida la política exterior de España ha convergido o no con la de la OTAN en relación con el Flanco Este.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and NATO
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Spain
320. Care in the Gap (1/19/22)
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- The Harriman Institute
- Abstract:
- Please join us for the fourth event of our Work of Care in Russia speaker series, a presentation by Tomas Matza (University of Pittsburgh).
- Topic:
- Health, Health Care Policy, and Care
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Europe
321. Ukraine Russia Crisis: Terrorism Briefing
- Author:
- Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
- Abstract:
- On 24 February 2022, Russia launched an attack on Ukraine. Figure 1 highlights that the invasion comes after a decade of deteriorating relations between Russia, Ukraine and the West. This brief covers several aspects relating to the current Ukrainian war, including the frequency of past acts of terrorism in Russia, Ukraine and Georgia and covers likely future scenarios. It also analyses cyberattacks on Ukraine over the last decade and lead up to the current war. The main finding is that terrorism increases with the intensity of conflict. Both the Georgian conflict in 2008 and the Ukrainian conflict of 2014 saw substantial spikes in terrorist activity around the wars, and as the current war intensifies increased terrorist activity should be expected. Secondly, cyberattacks on Ukraine have markedly increased over the last decade, and especially in the months and weeks leading up to the war. Further, cyberattacks have the potential to unintentionally spill over into other countries because of global connectivity, the effects of which have been seen on numerous occasions. As cyberattacks by nefarious actors are a recent phenomenon, and given the difficulty in the attribution of such attacks, the demarcation between what constitutes a cyberattack, cyber warfare or cyber terrorism are unclear. Regardless, this briefing looks at the broad phenomena of cyberattacks in Ukraine to offer background on recent events.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Cybersecurity, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and Georgia
322. World Risk Poll: Spotlight on Ukraine and Russia
- Author:
- Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
- Abstract:
- The Lloyd’s Register Foundation World Risk Poll, when combined with associated data from the Gallup World Poll and a number of other sources, reveals a complex and sometimes counterintuitive view of the world for both Ukrainians and Russians prior to the Russian invasion in 2022. Ukrainian citizens’ positive sentiments on a number of questions on social wellbeing were on the rise at a time when global averages were in decline. In the lead-up to the invasion, Ukrainians’ perceptions of safety and security were improving, with the percentage of people reporting feeling safer than five years prior rising from 19 to 26 per cent, bringing it closer to the global average. This represents a major increase, especially as it came at a time when the global average fell markedly, from 36 to 27.4 per cent, and for Russians the rate fell from 19.2 to 17.4 per cent. The conflict has unfolded within the context of Ukraine’s increasing socio-political reorientation toward the West. By November 2021, 58 per cent of Ukrainians said that, if the country were to join just one economic union, it should join the European Union (EU), compared to 21 per cent that said it should join the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union. This was the highest rating ever recorded. Similarly, 54 per cent said they would vote to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), compared to 28 per cent who would vote against joining. Surprisingly, “war and terrorism” was only the sixth highest-rated concern in Ukraine in 2021. Ukrainians rated health-related risks (not including COVID-19) as their top concern. Transportation-related risks, crime and violence, economic concerns and financial hardship were more frequently cited than “war and terrorism."
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, European Union, Conflict, Risk, Polls, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe
323. Crisis and Bargaining Over Ukraine: A New US-Russia Security Order?
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- The Harriman Institute
- Abstract:
- As Russian troops have amassed on Ukraine's border, talks aimed at resolving the standoff between Russia and NATO appear to have collapsed. Poland's Foreign Minister warned that "it seems that the risk of war in the OSCE area is now greater than ever before in the last 30 years." Russia has been seeking a new European security agreement that would include formal binding pledges to limit NATO's expansion and military activities across Eastern Europe. US and NATO officials respond that they will not give up on NATO's principles, especially its "open door" policy towards membership. Ukrainians are bracing for a renewed conflict amidst domestic political turmoil. Are the Russian and Western positions irreconcilable? How did we get to the brink of another conflict? And how would a Russian-Ukrainian war affect Russian and Ukrainian domestic politics? How would it impact Ukrainian identity and foreign policy goals?
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, NATO, Regional Cooperation, and Military Strategy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
324. Book Talk. Stalin's Millennials: Nostalgia, Trauma, and Nationalism
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- The Harriman Institute
- Abstract:
- Stalin’s Millennials examines Joseph Stalin’s increasing popularity in the post-Soviet space, and analyzes how his image, and the nostalgia it evokes, is manipulated and exploited for political gain. The author argues that, in addition to the evil dictator and the Georgian comrade, there is a third portrayal of Stalin—the one projected by the generation that saw the tail end of the USSR, the post-Soviet millennials. This book is not a biography of one of the most controversial historical figures of the past century. Rather, through a combination of sociopolitical commentary and autobiographical elements that are uncommon in monographs of this kind, the attempt is to explore how Joseph Stalin’s complex legacies and the conflicting cult of his irreconcilable tripartite of personalities still loom over the region as a whole, including Russia and, perhaps to an even deeper extent, Koba’s native land—now the independent Republic of Georgia, caught between its unreconciled Soviet past and the potential future within the European Union.
- Topic:
- Nationalism, Governance, Leadership, Trauma, and Memory
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Soviet Union, and Georgia
325. Environmental Activism in Russia
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- The Harriman Institute
- Abstract:
- Our panel of distinguished experts will discuss the growing environmental activism movement in Russia. We will be joined by both academics and activists who will explore the unique challenges that environmental activists have faced and continue to endure in Russia. They will also assess the results achieved to date by the Russian environmentalist movement, both from those operating within the country and those abroad.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, and Activism
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Europe
326. Governing Habits: Treating Alcoholism in the Post-Soviet Clinic, Eugene Raikhel
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- The Harriman Institute
- Abstract:
- Critics of narcology—as addiction medicine is called in Russia—decry it as being "backward," hopelessly behind contemporary global medical practices in relation to addiction and substance abuse, and assume that its practitioners lack both professionalism and expertise. On the basis of his research in a range of clinical institutions managing substance abuse in St. Petersburg, Eugene Raikhel increasingly came to understand that these assumptions and critiques obscured more than they revealed. Governing Habits is an ethnography of extraordinary sensitivity and awareness that shows how therapeutic practice and expertise is expressed in the highly specific, yet rapidly transforming milieu of hospitals, clinics, and rehabilitation centers in post Soviet Russia. Rather than interpreting narcology as a Soviet survival or a local clinical world on the wane in the face of globalizing evidence-based medicine, Raikhel examines the transformation of the medical management of alcoholism in Russia over the past twenty years. Raikhel's book is more than a story about the treatment of alcoholism. It is also a gripping analysis of the many cultural, institutional, political, and social transformations taking place in the post-Soviet world, particularly in Putin's Russia. Governing Habits will appeal to a wide range of readers, from medical anthropologists, clinicians, to scholars of post-Soviet Russia, to students of institutions and organizational change, to those interested in therapies and treatments of substance abuse, addiction, and alcoholism.
- Topic:
- Health, Mental Health, Alcohol, Post-Soviet Space, and Addiction
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Europe
327. What’s Next? Experts Respond to Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- The Harriman Institute
- Abstract:
- Join us for a special meeting of the New York-Russia Public Policy Series, co-hosted by the Harriman Institute at Columbia University and the New York University Jordan Center for the Advanced Study of Russia. This event is also cosponsored by the Center for Social Media and Politics at NYU and the Salzman Institute of War and Peace Studies.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Strategic Interests, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
328. Towards Sustainable Peace and Cooperation
- Author:
- Farid Shafiyev
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Caucasus Strategic Perspectives
- Institution:
- Center of Analysis of International Relations (AIR Center)
- Abstract:
- The current issue of the Caucasus Strategic Perspectives (CSP) journal entitled “Towards Sustainable Peace and Cooperation” is dedicated to the challenges and opportunities emerging in the South Caucasus region 2 years after the end of the 44-day war between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2020 with focus on security and political matters.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, International Law, Treaties and Agreements, Peacekeeping, Military Affairs, Conflict, Vladimir Putin, Landmines, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Turkey, Caucasus, Armenia, and Azerbaijan
329. Sanctioning Russia: Implications and Expectation
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- The Harriman Institute
- Abstract:
- Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the West rapidly adopted unprecedented sanctions on Russia. These included a series of export controls and the sanctioning of the Russian Central Bank, major institutions in the financial sector as well as individual “oligarchs” who live and conduct business outside of the country. In addition to these government actions by the United States, the European Union and the UK, hundreds of Western private companies have withdrawn from the Russian market or suspended operations, further exacerbating Russian economic uncertainty. How likely are the sanctions to pressure Russia to halt its campaign in Ukraine, what is their purpose and logic, and what additional measures could be imposed?
- Topic:
- Economics, Hegemony, Sanctions, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
330. Book Talk. La Nijinska by Lynn Garafola
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- The Harriman Institute
- Abstract:
- Overshadowed in life and legend by her brother Vaslav Nijinsky, Bronislava Nijinska had a far longer and more productive career. An architect of twentieth-century neoclassicism, she experienced the transformative power of the Russian Revolution and created her greatest work - Les Noces - under the influence of its avant-garde. Many of her ballets rested on the probing of gender boundaries, a mistrust of conventional gender roles, and the heightening of the ballerina's technical and artistic prowess. A prominent member of Russia Abroad, she worked with leading figures of twentieth-century art, music, and ballet, including Stravinsky, Diaghilev, Poulenc, Alexandra Exter, Natalia Goncharova, Frederick Ashton, Alicia Markova, and Maria Tallchief. She was also a remarkable dancer in her own right with a bravura technique and powerful stage presence that enabled her to perform an unusually broad repertory. Finally, she was the author of an acclaimed volume of memoirs in addition to a major treatise on movement. Nijinska's career sheds new light on the modern history of ballet and of modernism more generally, recuperating the memory of lost works and forgotten artists, many of them women. But it also reveals the sexism pervasive in the upper echelons of the early and mid-twentieth-century ballet world, barriers that women choreographers still confront. Lynn Garafola is Professor Emerita of Dance at Barnard College, Columbia University. A dance historian and critic, she is the author of Diaghilev's Ballets Russes and Legacies of Twentieth-Century Dance, and the editor of several books, including The Diaries of Marius Petipa, André Levinson on Dance (with Joan Acocella), José Limón: An Unfinished Memoir, and The Ballets Russes and Its World. She has curated several exhibitions, including Dance for a City: Fifty Years of the New York City Ballet, New York Story: Jerome Robbins and His World, Diaghilev's Theater of Marvels: The Ballets Russes and Its Aftermath, and, most recently, Arthur Mitchell: Harlem's Ballet Trailblazer.
- Topic:
- Arts, Culture, Feminism, Russian Revolution, and Gender
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Europe
331. Russian-Turkish Relations: Past & Present
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- The Harriman Institute
- Abstract:
- As Istanbul hosts Russian and Ukrainian negotiators for peace talks to end Russia’s war on Ukraine, and Turkey balances between Ukraine and Russia, Russian-Turkish relations may be entering a new phase. Relations between the two states have grown increasingly fraught in recent years, as the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan and Russia’s role in Syria and the Middle East come up against Turkey’s growing influence in the region. Panelists will discuss relations between Russia and Turkey by analyzing the historical legacies of the Russian and Ottoman empires, and by situating current policies in the broader context of Turkish and Russian relations with NATO, Europe, and the U.S.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Turkey
332. The Parallels of Russian Bellicosity in the Balkans in the Example of Ukraine
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- The Harriman Institute
- Abstract:
- Just last month, the Russian Ambassador to Bosnia and Herzegovina issued issued a startling threat to the Bosnian government’s aspirations to join NATO. “Bosnia and Herzegovina have the right to decide whether to be a member of NATO, but Moscow reserves the right to respond to such an opportunity,” he said. Russia warned Bosnia and Herzegovina that it could be the Kremlin's next target following Ukraine. This is not the first time Russia has threatened Bosnia. The parallels to Russia’s threats to Ukraine are unerringly uncanny. Bosnia’s significance to Western powers and to Russia stems from the same fact: The country is located squarely at the intersection of NATO and Russian influence. The West recognizes some of the potential Bosnia could have if it were brought into the NATO bloc, but seems not to understand the ramifications of the country slipping into Kremlin-induced disarray. For its part, Russia is just being consistent: Just as it unsuccessfully attempted to prevent Montenegro and North Macedonia from joining NATO, so too is it trying to halt Bosnian aspirations toward the same goal. Bosnia and threatened Balkan states North Macedonia and Montenegro remain fragile to Russian manipulation of its proxies in all of these countries and in the Balkan neighborhood.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, NATO, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Hegemony
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Bosnia and Herzegovina
333. Byzantium as Seen by the White Russians in Constantinople
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- The Harriman Institute
- Abstract:
- or the broad public in pre-revolutionary Russia, Byzantium belonged to religious discourse; it also became a battle cry for Russian imperialism. And, by an irony of history, it was that long-coveted Byzantium that greeted the White Russians as they, orphaned refugees, disembarked in Constantinople following their defeat in the Civil War. What sentiments did the Byzantine monuments inspire in them? It appears that their attitudes were more nuanced than pure nostalgia or dismissal. Sergey A. Ivanov is a member of the British Academy. He has published more than 200 scholarly works on Byzantine culture and the relations between Byzantium and the Slavs. Among his monographs are Holy Fools in Byzantium and Beyond (Oxford, 2006), “Pearls Before Swine:” Missionary Work in Byzantium (Paris, 2015) and "Византийская культура и агиография" (Moscow, 2020, Byzantine Culture and Hagiography). His guidebook "В поисках Константинополя" was first published in Russian in 2011, went through three editions and was translated into Bulgarian and Turkish. It was published in English as In Search of Constantinople. A Guidebook Through Byzantine Istanbul and Its Surroundings in March 2022.
- Topic:
- Culture, Urban, Cities, and Monuments
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Turkey, and Istanbul
334. Russia’s War on Ukraine: A New Phase
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- The Harriman Institute
- Abstract:
- Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has entered a new phase. The Kremlin’s initial plan to seize Kyiv with a lightning strike failed due to spirited defense by the Ukrainian military. In response, Russia has concentrated forces in the Donbas, and to a lesser extent southern Ukraine. Fighting remains fierce in these areas and experts disagree about the trajectory of the conflict. Some argue that Ukraine’s superior morale and greater international support will be decisive, while others point to Russia’s sheer advantage in numbers. Our panel of experts will discuss the implications of this new phase of the war. Can Ukraine gain back territory lost in recent weeks? Have Russia’s war aims changed? Should the US and NATO change course? Is it time for all sides to seek a negotiated settlement?
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, War, Military Strategy, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
335. Navalny and Russia's Opposition During the War: A Conversation with Maria Pevchikh
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- The Harriman Institute
- Abstract:
- Please join the Harriman Institute at Columbia University for a discussion with Maria Pevchikh, head of the investigation department at the Anti-Corruption Foundation. Moderated by Elise Giuliano, Senior Lecturer in Political Science.
- Topic:
- War, Authoritarianism, Civil-Military Relations, Opposition, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Europe
336. The crisis of European security: What Europeans think about the war in Ukraine
- Author:
- Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- The war in Ukraine could mark a watershed for European security. There has been much talk that European governments are divided over the conflict, but European citizens seem remarkably united around three key ideas. Firstly, they believe it is likely that there will be another Russian invasion of Ukraine. Secondly, they see this as a problem not only for Ukraine but for European security generally. Thirdly, they want Europe to respond to the crisis, with majorities supporting a response from NATO and the EU in particular. Europeans disagree on which are the most pressing threats linked to the crisis and on the price their countries should pay to defend Ukraine: people in Poland, Romania, and Sweden are much more willing to make sacrifices than those in France and Germany. The crisis will likely test Europeans’ readiness to defend the European security order.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Public Opinion, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
337. Health of nations: How Europe can fight future pandemics
- Author:
- Anthony Dworkin
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- As the crisis phase of covid-19 recedes, there is a chance to improve international cooperation on global health – but also a danger that competing reform proposals will lead to inaction. The EU can best support reform of pandemic preparedness and response if it takes account of the concerns of different global powers. The union should combine a push for reform of and increased funding for the WHO with support for a new fund for health emergencies, overseen by a representative group of countries. The EU should promote a new global compact on health, matching countries’ commitment to surveillance and reporting of pathogens with support for stronger healthcare systems and greater equity in the allocation of countermeasures. The EU-Africa relationship offers a chance to pioneer such an approach, but the EU will need to go further in this than it has so far. The EU should promote African vaccine manufacturing, including by pressing European pharmaceutical companies to transfer knowledge and technology to Africa.
- Topic:
- Health, European Union, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Russia, China, Europe, India, and United States of America
338. Principled pragmatism: Europe’s place in a multipolar Middle East
- Author:
- Julien Barnes-Dacey and Hugh Lovatt
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- A multipolar Middle East is emerging as the US “right-sizes” its posture in the region – and as regional states and external powers, including Russia and China, become more assertive. Russia’s war on Ukraine is accelerating these dynamics, while also provoking destabilising price shocks and underscoring the region’s importance to energy markets. The Middle East’s geopolitical shifts pose huge challenges to Europe, but multipolarity could create space to promote European interests more effectively. A coherent European approach should be guided by principled pragmatism: acknowledging the region as it is rather than as Europeans want it to be, while staying focused on the principles needed to secure longer-term stability. Europeans need to enhance transatlantic complementarity and stop ceding leverage to their Middle Eastern partners. While they compete for influence with Russia and China, they should maintain room for coordination with both countries. Europe should tap into the opportunities created by stabilisation support, green energy, and economic diversification – areas that could provide an edge over China.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Multipolarity, Strategic Interests, Pragmatism, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
339. A question of balance: India and Europe after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
- Author:
- Frédéric Grare
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- European officials are frustrated at India’s apparent fence-sitting over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Yet, for Indian policymakers, maintaining a workable relationship with Russia is central to counterbalancing Chinese hegemony in their shared neighbourhood. India also depends significantly on Russia for arms supplies, including advanced systems that help it keep pace with China. Despite this, India has for some time been slowly decoupling from Russia and strengthening its relations with the West, especially the US. Europeans should be aware of how India defines its own strategic positioning, and support India where possible as they negotiate the tricky issues relating to the Indo-Pacific region.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Sanctions, Arms Trade, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and India
340. The next war: How Russian hybrid aggression could threaten Moldova
- Author:
- Dumitru Minzarari
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- Russia could target Moldova by embarking on a limited-scope but overt military invasion; or by pursuing more covert hybrid aggression scenarios. The three most plausible Russian aggression scenarios are: a military action launched from Transnistria; a local, elite-focused rebellion similar to Russia’s exploits in Donbas in 2014, likely centring on the Moldovan region of Gagauzia; and popular unrest stoked by Russia and containing violent elements. The EU and Moldova underestimate the risk of one or more of these happening. The EU’s preferred “resilience” approach to hybrid threats lacks an active component that can effectively respond to, and repel, Russian aggression. Moldova should draw on Western support to implement an “active resilience” policy to better confront and undermine Russian actions. The EU should set up a CSDP mission in Moldova comprising both civilian and military components that helps the Moldovan authorities plan and conduct security threat assessments and protect against military and hybrid risks.
- Topic:
- European Union, Conflict, Resilience, Hybrid Threats, and Invasion
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, and Moldova
341. Survive and thrive: A European plan to support Ukraine in the long war against Russia
- Author:
- Piotr Buras, Marie Dumoulin, Gustav Gressel, and Jeremy Shapiro
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- Russia’s war on Ukraine is likely to last many years, even if the violence may subside at times. To sustain Ukraine during this conflict, Europeans should draw up a four-part ‘long-war plan’. This plan would comprise military assistance to Ukraine in the form of a ‘security compact’; security assurances that respond to scenarios of Russian escalation; economic support, giving Ukraine access to the EU’s single market; and help to secure Ukraine’s energy supply. Besides its practical impact, this plan will signal Europeans’ commitment to assisting Ukraine, showing Kyiv, Moscow, and the wider global community that the EU is in it for the long haul. The long-war plan will also provide clarity to anxious publics in member states. Together, these proposals would protect Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and help create the long-term conditions for a resolution to the war – if and when a more constructive attitude emerges in the Kremlin.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, Conflict, Military, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
342. In Europe’s defence: Why the EU needs a security compact with Ukraine
- Author:
- Gustav Gressel
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- Security support and other help from Western partners made a concrete difference to Ukraine’s ability to resist Russia’s 2022 invasion and, in some cases, retake territory. Had the EU established a security compact that provided security assistance in a range of areas, Ukraine could have been even more successful in its resistance. A security compact would have enabled Europeans to send more comprehensive packages of support, as they would have already addressed major questions about how to respond to a Russian attack. The West and Ukraine have both learned a significant amount about what support they should consider. The EU should now establish a security compact that enhances assistance for Ukraine. Joint planning between European armed forces and the Ukrainian defence industry to agree schedules for the replacement of key arms would free up equipment to be supplied to Ukraine. The EU should consider drawing up security compacts with Moldova and Georgia, both of which are vulnerable to Russian aggression.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia
343. Byting back: The EU’s digital alliance with Latin America and the Caribbean
- Author:
- Carla Hobbs and José I. Torreblanca
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- China’s and Russia’s growing presence in Latin America and the Caribbean undermines democracy and Western influence in the region, along with the international rules-based order. The EU is responding to this threat by attempting to strengthen its relationships with Latin American and Caribbean countries. The bloc is attempting to build on their affinity for European values and rights, as well their preference for sustainable and inclusive development. Cooperation on digital technologies should be a priority in the effort, given the region’s need for greater connectivity. The Spanish presidency of the EU should lead the formation of a Digital Alliance with Latin America and the Caribbean at a summit scheduled for 2023. The EU can make this alliance work by focusing on connectivity investments, cyber-security, and rights to support Latin American countries’ digital transitions. The alliance will also require a long-term vision within the EU, commitments from member states, leadership by several Latin American countries, and public-private investment partnerships.
- Topic:
- European Union, Democracy, Alliance, and Digital Policy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, and Latin America
344. EU - Pacific talks: EU - ASEAN relations: For better and for worse
- Author:
- Europeum
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Europeum Institute for European Policy
- Abstract:
- If you missed the debate EU - Pacific talks: EU - ASEAN relations: for better and for worse, you can read the report from the debate written by Šárka Váchalová. During the debate these questions were discussed: As tensions with authoritarian powers such as Russia and China amplify, how can the EU and ASEAN partnership remain strong moving forward? What are the areas that the two regions can strengthen given the ongoing geopolitical tug of war?
- Topic:
- European Union, Geopolitics, ASEAN, and Dialogue
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, and Europe
345. Radioactive Consequences of a War in Ukraine
- Author:
- Rico Chandra
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on International Policy (CIP)
- Abstract:
- A war in Ukraine could lead to thousands of radioactive sources getting lost, or worse, getting stolen and repurposed for political destabilization. So what is a radioactive “source”? It is a material that is specifically manufactured for the purpose of emitting radiation. For example, some forms of cancer are treated using radiotherapy whereby intense gamma radiation, emitted from a pencil-sized lump of radioactive metal, is directed at the tumor. This lump of highly radioactive metal is a radioactive “source”.
- Topic:
- Health, Military Strategy, Radiological Weapons, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
346. Present Danger: Nuclear Power Plants in War
- Author:
- Henry Sokolski
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
- Abstract:
- After Russia’s unprecedented seizure of Ukraine’s nuclear plant at Zaporizhzhya, the United States needs to adjust its military planning and policies to cope with hostile military forces’ targeting, seizure, and garrisoning of armed forces at large operating nuclear plants and clarify its policies regarding possible US targeting of such plants. This article is the first to analyze these concerns. It compares Russia’s assaults with previous strikes against research reactors and nonoperating nuclear plants in the Middle East and clarifies what new military measures and policies will be needed to cope with military operations against large, operating nuclear plants. US Army and Pentagon officials, as well as military and civilian staff, will discover ways to mitigate and reduce future military harm to civilians in war zones and understand the operational implications of military assaults on and seizures of civilian nuclear facilities.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Military Strategy, Nuclear Power, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
347. Arresting Nuclear Adventurism: China, Article VI, and the NPT
- Author:
- Henry Sokolski and Andrea Beck
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
- Abstract:
- Given the current crisis in Ukraine, it’s tempting to consider focusing on Chinese compliance with the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) to be an academic indulgence. Giving into this inclination, however, would be a mistake. As dangerous as Russia currently is, China will be more threatening in the long run. As we are learning with Russia’s violation of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, enforcing binding understandings is critical lest violators run roughshod over law and good order. This is true with Russia’s behavior in Ukraine. It is no less so with China’s nuclear weapons buildup and its repeated refusal to join in good faith negotiations to limit its nuclear weapons activities, which is required by Article VI of the NPT. This buildup and refusal clearly flies in the face of China’s legal NPT obligations. The question is what might bring Beijing back into compliance. To get the answers, NPEC held a battery of workshops last fall, followed by a week-long diplomatic simulation. The game participants included U.S., Japanese, and Australian former and current officials and staff as well as outside experts. The group concluded that Beijing is unlikely to comply willingly with the NPT anytime soon, but that U.S. and international security would still be best served by spotlighting Beijing’s nuclear adventurism and suggesting diplomatic off-ramps to arrest its nuclear buildup.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Peace, and Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT)
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, Ukraine, and Asia
348. Israel’s Ukraine policy: ‘Right side of history’ vs national interest
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- History has no right side and it does not evolve according to moral imperatives.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, War, Military Strategy, Conflict, Strategic Interests, and Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, Middle East, and Israel
349. Russia, Ukraine and international Law
- Author:
- Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
- Abstract:
- Russian actions in Ukraine since 2014, and the tensions to which they have led, obscure the legal aspects of these attacks thereby opening the way to propaganda and approximations. To contribute to a better understanding of what is at stake, this contribution is limited to the legal aspects of an otherwise eminently political issue. This in fact heralds a spectacular break in the international order and a violation of commitments and treaties signed by a member of the Security Council of the United Nations that have not been witnessed since the Second World War[1].For a long time, Russian diplomacy was attached to the strict and formal respect of the rules of international law, sometimes "clinging" to them in a bid to resist the demands made by the different populations. Even during the succession of the USSR, this constant was respected. However, the actions in Crimea and Donbass since 2014 have marked the abandonment of this formalism, while the Kremlin's diplomacy is promoting the need to conclude new treaties with the United States and European states so that Russia can endorse its claims.
- Topic:
- International Law, Conflict, Norms, Annexation, and Disputes
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
350. Has Europe’s hour come?
- Author:
- Antoine Cibirski
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
- Abstract:
- “Europe’s hour has come”, said a Luxembourg minister in 1991 at the beginning of the Yugoslav wars. The context seemed favourable: an initially peripheral crisis, a relative lack of interest on the part of Russia, a green light from the United States which was even encouraging invention by the Western European Union (WEU), the majority of whose activities were taken over by the European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP), and later by the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP). America's 'pet project' at the time was not yet Asia, but rather the management of the decay of the Soviet world, without much interest in the Western Balkans. In response, some Europeans 'held back' and feared an unfavourable division of tasks: 'noble' collective defence missions reserved for NATO and peacekeeping missions, considered 'subordinate', for Europe. Strategic prescience! Four years later, we had witnessed the bombing of civilians, the siege of Sarajevo, broken ceasefires, failed mediations and Srebreniça. We had experienced the humiliations inflicted on a UN force (UNPROFOR) that had a timid mandate and overly restrictive rules of engagement. The British and French were in the field this time round, but not the Germans. The Dayton Peace Agreement, which only France calls "the Dayton-Paris agreement" (a formal concession by Bill Clinton to Jacques Chirac) was largely a Pax Americana. In the American camp, Richard Holbrooke had pulled the strings and decided everything, by ruthlessly relegating the European leaders, including Carl Bildt, Jacques Blot and Pauline Neville-Jones[1].
- Topic:
- European Union, Conflict, and Integration
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
351. World food crisis: between withdrawal and responsibility, Europe must choose
- Author:
- Emmanuelle Ducros
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
- Abstract:
- The profound destructuring of world food markets as a result of Russia's war on Ukraine is forcing all of the world's agricultural powers to question their place on the world stage of satiety - or hunger. This is primarily the case in Europe.
- Topic:
- Food, Hunger, Armed Conflict, and Economic Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
352. Energy Markets and the Design of Sanctions on Russia
- Author:
- Christof Ruhl
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
- Abstract:
- Sanctions against the citizens, institutions, and products of the Russian Federation are evolving rapidly. Energy sanctions started late, but the number of countries embargoing oil, gas, or coal imports from Russia is expanding. These sanctions are likely to increase global fuel prices while depressing the price of the sanctioned fuel. The experience to date suggests that the current, gradual approach of reducing oil and gas imports from Russia one country at a time may have room to go further. Before the invasion of Ukraine, the sweeping and unprecedented sanctions promised in the event of a Russian invasion were often conceived as a two-pronged pincer movement. The idea was to isolate Russia from the global financial system while limiting its commodity and energy exports. Both moves were aimed at the source of the financial strength of “fortress Russia,” namely, its persistent balance of payment surplus.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, Sanctions, Financial Markets, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Europe
353. Russia’s War in Ukraine: Identity, History, and Conflict
- Author:
- Jeffrey Mankoff
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Russia’s invasion of Ukraine constitutes the biggest threat to peace and security in Europe since the end of the Cold War. On February 21, 2022, Russian president Vladimir Putin gave a bizarre and at times unhinged speech laying out a long list of grievances as justification for the “special military operation” announced the following day. While these grievances included the long-simmering dispute over the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the shape of the post–Cold War security architecture in Europe, the speech centered on a much more fundamental issue: the legitimacy of Ukrainian identity and statehood themselves. It reflected a worldview Putin had long expressed, emphasizing the deep-seated unity among the Eastern Slavs—Russians, Ukrainians, and Belarusians, who all trace their origins to the medieval Kyivan Rus commonwealth—and suggesting that the modern states of Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus should share a political destiny both today and in the future. The corollary to that view is the claim that distinct Ukrainian and Belarusian identities are the product of foreign manipulation and that, today, the West is following in the footsteps of Russia’s imperial rivals in using Ukraine (and Belarus) as part of an “anti-Russia project.” Throughout Putin’s time in office, Moscow has pursued a policy toward Ukraine and Belarus predicated on the assumption that their respective national identities are artificial—and therefore fragile. Putin’s arguments about foreign enemies promoting Ukrainian (and, in a more diffuse way, Belarusian) identity as part of a geopolitical struggle against Russia echo the way many of his predecessors refused to accept the agency of ordinary people seeking autonomy from tsarist or Soviet domination. The historically minded Putin often invokes the ideas of thinkers emphasizing the organic unity of the Russian Empire and its people—especially its Slavic, Orthodox core—in a form of what the historian Timothy Snyder calls the “politics of eternity,” the belief in an unchanging historical essence. The salience that Putin and other Russian elites assign to the idea of Russian-Ukrainian-Belarusian unity helps explain the origins of the current conflict, notably why Moscow was willing to risk a large-scale war on its borders when neither Ukraine nor NATO posed any military threat. It also suggests that Moscow’s ambitions extend beyond preventing Ukrainian NATO membership and encompass a more thorough aspiration to dominate Ukraine politically, militarily, and economically. It also helps explain Russia’s military strategy. Moscow appeared to calculate that enough Ukrainians, at least in the eastern part of the country, would accept some form of reintegration into a Russian sphere of influence because of shared cultural, linguistic, religious, and other ties with Russia. Despite pre-war polls showing large numbers of Ukrainians willing to take up arms to defend their country against a Russian invasion, Moscow’s wager was not entirely implausible given the recentness of the shift and the persistence of family and other ties across the Russian-Ukrainian border. Nonetheless, Russia’s war has become bogged down in no small part because this calculation about Ukrainian identity has proven dramatically wrong.
- Topic:
- War, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict, Rivalry, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
354. The Ukraine War: Preparing for the Longer-Term Outcome
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- It is far too early to predict the ultimate outcome of the Ukraine War, but it is all too clear that no peace settlement or ceasefire is likely to eliminate a long period of military tension between the U.S. – including NATO and its allies – and anything approaching President Putin’s future version of Russia, nor will any resolution of the current conflict negate the risk of new forms of war. It is equally clear that the U.S. and NATO need to act as quickly as possible to prepare for an intense period of military competition and must create a more secure deterrent and improve their capability to defend against Russia. In practice, NATO will need to make up for years of underfunding by each member country and for the cuts in force levels, readiness, and modernization that years of a U.S.-driven focus on burden-sharing – rather than funding NATO’s real military priorities – did little or nothing to address. NATO will need to find new ways to counter the massive problems in interoperability and differences in comparative warfighting that still exist between NATO’s 30 nations. This will need to be accomplished at a time when emerging and disruptive technologies (EDTs) are constantly changing the nature of deterrence and warfighting, when Russia is actively pursuing nuclear modernization rather than arms control, and when NATO’s more advanced forces are struggling to create new approaches to joint all-domain command and control (JADC2) – and all while doing so at a time when most member countries have limited capabilities to support their existing force structure. At best, developing and sustaining any coherent effort to deal with these issues will take at least five years to implement. It then will require constant updating on an annual basis as new types of technology, tactics, and command and control continue to reshape military needs and force plans. This, in turn, requires sustained political and popular support in the face of inflation and civil needs during a time when the momentum for military change created by the current fighting in Ukraine may have faded. In some ways, the only thing harder than crisis management is the lack of crisis management.
- Topic:
- War, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
355. Russia in the Indo-Pacific: Perspectives from China, Russia, and the United States
- Author:
- Gaye Christoffersen, Ying Liu, Artyom Lukin, Elena Feditchkina Tracy, and Elizabeth Wishnick
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
- Abstract:
- Russia’s role in the Indo-Pacific is an understudied topic—while much of the discussion of Russia in Asia typically focuses on its response to geopolitical rivalries, the volume addresses ideational factors in Russia’s relations with regional and global powers, the domestic drivers of Russia’s Asia-Pacific policy, as well as the complex iteration of regional identities in Asia-Pacific Russia and in the Sino-Russian partnership. Contributors to this volume are based across Russia, China, Japan, Malaysia, Vietnam, and the USA, drawing on a range of multinational perspectives and theoretical approaches. Panelists at this event will present views from Beijing, Vladivostok, and the United States.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific
356. Government Internet Shutdowns Are Changing. How Should Citizens and Democracies Respond?
- Author:
- Steven Feldstein
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Governments worldwide continue to deploy internet shutdowns and network disruptions to quell mass protests, forestall election losses, reinforce military coups, or cut off conflict areas from the outside world. Data from the past few years show that incidences of global shutdowns have remained steadily high: 196 documented incidents in 2018, 213 incidents in 2019, and 155 in 2020. The first five months of 2021 recorded fifty shutdown incidents.1 Government-instigated internet shutdowns largely took place in relation to five event types: mass demonstrations, military operations and coups, elections, communal violence and religious holidays, and school exams. As Clément Voule, the United Nations special rapporteur on the rights to freedom of peaceful assembly and of association, pointedly observes: “Shutdowns are lasting longer, becoming harder to detect and targeting particular social media and messaging applications and specific localities and communities.”2 Events in Russia have put a finer point on internet shutdown trends. On March 4, 2022, Roskomnadzor, the Russian internet regulator, announced that it would block Facebook and Twitter and would ban new uploads to TikTok.3 On March 14, it added Instagram to the banned list.4 Russian authorities have also restricted access to a slew of news websites, including the BBC, Deutsche Welle, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, and Voice of America. Roskomnadzor claimed these measures were enacted in response to new limits imposed by platforms on Russian propaganda outlets—accusing Facebook of “discrimination.”5 The Kremlin’s crackdown is an ominous signal about where the shutdown struggle is headed in authoritarian countries. Despite these bleak trends, there is a growing international consensus—at least among liberal democracies—that protecting internet access is integrally linked to freedoms of expression and association and forms a crucial part of the global democracy and human rights agenda. This paper picks up on this emerging norm and probes several key questions: What can citizens do to evade authoritarian controls and regain internet access? How can democratic governments support these efforts and push back against governments that shut down and block the internet? The short answer is that there is a multitude of responses available to democracies and civil society organizations to push back against internet blackouts and network disruptions. Democracies can exert meaningful pressure against repressive governments to ease internet blocks, and citizens are able to exercise creative options to circumvent internet controls. The paper walks through different tools available to citizens to evade internet controls. It examines where internet shutdown trends are headed and incentives for particular regimes to adopt new modes of censorship. It then presents a multifaceted strategy for democracies, civil society organizations, and technology developers and companies to counter internet shutdowns.
- Topic:
- Government, Science and Technology, Democracy, and Internet
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Global Focus
357. North Africa Can Reduce Europe's Dependence on Russian Gas by Transporting Wasted Gas Through Existing Infrastructure
- Author:
- Mark Davis, Perrine Toledano, and Thomas Schorr
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- North Africa can reduce Europe's dependence on Russian gas by transporting wasted gas through existing infrastructure.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Oil, Military Strategy, Natural Resources, Gas, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
358. What Does $40 Billion in Aid to Ukraine Buy?
- Author:
- Mark F. Cancian
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Congress has approved $40 billion in aid for Ukraine and other countries affected by the conflict―the sixth aid package since the war began. A major change is that this package looks ahead months rather than weeks. The aid package provides $19 billion for immediate military support to Ukraine, continuing the effort that has been vital to sustaining Ukrainian resistance, and $3.9 billion to sustain U.S. forces deployed to Europe. The package also contains about $16 billion for economic support to Ukraine, global humanitarian relief, and a wide variety of international programs as well as $2 billion for long-term support to NATO allies and DOD modernization programs. Although some elements of the aid package will be available quickly, many will take years to fully implement. This raises questions about why long-term elements could not have gone through the regular congressional authorization and budget processes.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Military Spending, and Military Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, North America, and United States of America
359. The Challenge of European Political Will
- Author:
- Rachel Lutz Ellehuus and Seth G. Jones
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- In this follow-on report to 2021’s Europe's High-End Military Challenges: The Future of European Capabilities and Missions, the CSIS Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program and International Security Program examine the other side of the coin of European military effectiveness: the political will of European countries to conduct military missions and operations. The report identifies the endogenous and exogenous factors constraining or increasing political will and maps them onto six country case studies. Four prototypes of political will emerged from the analysis: global partners, international activists, constrained partners, and minimalists. The report then assesses the political will of European allies and partners to conduct fifteen types of military missions and operations worldwide, from peacekeeping to large-scale combat. It concludes with a summary of key findings. First, it finds that internal and external factors—such as strategic culture and alliance dependence, respectively—will continue to constrain European political will in many cases, even after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Second, European states are more likely to have the political will to engage in military missions at the lower end of the conflict spectrum (such as maritime patrol missions) and less likely at the higher ends of the spectrum, except in cases of significant collective or national defense.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, International Cooperation, Politics, Military Strategy, Regionalism, and Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
360. U.S. Strategy: Rebalancing Global Energy between Europe, Russia, and Asia and U.S. Security Policy in the Middle East and the Gulf
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The war in Ukraine has already shown how dangerous it is for the U.S. to assume that it can rebalance its forces to one region and count on a lasting peace or detente in others. It now is all too clear that U.S. strategy must continue to focus on Europe as well as China. What is less clear is the extent to which the Ukraine War is an equal warning that the U.S. must have a truly global strategy – and one that continues to focus on other critical regions like the Middle East. The sudden escalation of the Ukraine crisis into a major regional conflict and the need for political and diplomatic support in the UN as well as for sanctions are warnings that much of the U.S. success in deterrence and defense lies in creating long-term global diplomatic and political support as well as true and lasting strategic partnerships.
- Topic:
- Security, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, Hegemony, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Middle East, Asia, North America, and United States of America
361. Bridging U.S.-Led Alliances in the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific: An Inter-theater Perspective
- Author:
- Luis Simon
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Although U.S. strategic competition with China and Russia is often presented as a challenge with two separate fronts, this brief argues that the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific theaters are increasingly linked. Insofar as preserving a favorable balance of power in these two regions hinges largely on U.S. power, and as long as they both continue to exercise a significant pressure on U.S. defense resources, their alliance and deterrence architectures should be looked at from an inter-theater perspective. Thus, optimally managing atwo-front challenge would require a serious effort to bridge U.S.-led alliances in both regions.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Hegemony, Alliance, Strategic Competition, Rivalry, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, Asia, North America, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific
362. International Legal Options for Prevention and Justice in Ukraine
- Author:
- Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
- Abstract:
- This March 2022 Fact Sheet presents international legal options for international criminal justice and prevention in Ukraine.
- Topic:
- United Nations, Accountability, Justice, International Criminal Court (ICC), and Universal Jurisdiction
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Ukraine
363. WILL NATO MILITARY EXERCISES DETER RUSSIAN EXPANSION?
- Author:
- Brian Blankenship
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- As concerns that Russia might try to seize additional territory from Ukraine have mounted in recent weeks, policymakers in the United States and NATO have considered how best to shore up the alliance and discourage a Russian offensive. These efforts are hardly new. Since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, the NATO alliance has attempted to dissuade Russia from further attempts to encroach on the territory of neighboring countries. These attempts have included the creation of a “Very High Readiness Joint Task Force” capable of deploying to crisis areas within 72 hours, as well as the “Enhanced Forward Presence” consisting of four multinational battalions stationed in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland on a rotational basis. Additionally, NATO members have conducted a variety of military exercises with members around the alliance’s eastern flank, as well as some with Ukraine itself.
- Topic:
- NATO, Deterrence, Vladimir Putin, Joe Biden, and Military
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, United States of America, and Baltic States
364. ARE RUSSIA’S THREATS CREDIBLE?
- Author:
- Stephen Shulman and Stephen Bloom
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- The current crisis in Europe is a head-to-head battle of policies of coercive diplomacy: compellence by Russia and deterrence by the West. Russia’s demands focus on permanently reversing the expansion of Western military power into Ukraine, backed by the threat of military attack on Ukraine in the absence of compliance. Western policy seeks to deter such an attack by threatening painful economic sanctions and arming Ukraine to make such an attack more costly to Russia. How credible is the Russian threat?
- Topic:
- NATO, Diplomacy, Sanctions, Crisis Management, and Military
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe
365. HOW GERMANY’S COALITION CHANGE CONTRIBUTED TO PUTIN’S STRATEGIC MISCALCULATION IN UKRAINE
- Author:
- Debra Leiter and Rebecca Best
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- Vladimir Putin almost certainly failed to anticipate that Germany would be willing to sacrifice the benefits of cheaper Russian gas to punish Russian aggression in Ukraine. But Tuesday, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz indefinitely paused certification of the completed Nord Stream 2 pipeline to “reassess” the situation. While the move didn’t stop Putin from invading Ukraine—by that point Putin already had too much skin in the game to risk the loss of face from backing down—it has substantially raised the costs for Russia. Why did Germany do this, and why didn’t Putin see it coming?
- Topic:
- NATO, Oil, War, Gas, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Germany
366. CONTAINMENT 2.0: SANCTIONS FOR THE LONG HAUL
- Author:
- David A. Lake
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- The West is not imposing coercive sanctions on Russia to stop its current aggression. No one seriously expects that the sanctions will cause President Putin to withdraw from Ukraine. NATO made clear before the war that its members will not defend Ukraine with military force. The European members have also, as expected, carved out exceptions to the sanctions regime for oil and gas so as not to impose too much pain on their own economies. Putin anticipated the general scope of the sanctions likely to be imposed on Russia and decided it was worth invading Ukraine anyways. While he may have been surprised by the extent of the sanctions and unity of NATO so far, this is not enough to alter his calculus. Indeed, he is doubling down on the original plan. He also knows that he has other weapons and forms of coercion against the West up his sleeve. Rather, we are seeing the birth of a possible Containment 2.0, a forced decoupling of Russia from the Western international economy. This is a long-term, not a short-term, strategy. The point is to undermine the Russian economy, stifle its technological progress, deny Russians a standard of living comparable to that of the West, and break support for the regime over time. In doing so, the West undermines Russia’s ability to compete militarily, aiming to forestall further Ukraines, and weakens Putin’s hand at home and abroad.
- Topic:
- NATO, International Trade and Finance, Sanctions, Economy, and Containment
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Global Focus, and United States of America
367. WILL NATO FIGHT RUSSIA OVER UKRAINE? THE STABILITY-INSTABILITY PARADOX SAYS NO
- Author:
- Andrew Kydd
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- Many observers of the current war between Russia and Ukraine have expressed concern that NATO support for Ukraine could escalate the conflict to a direct major conventional war between NATO and Russia, and that from there it could easily escalate to a nuclear war. A group of foreign policy experts have proposed that NATO impose a “no-fly zone” over Ukraine, while other analysts have decried the escalatory potential of such a move. In a recent poll of international relations scholars, 40 percent thought a no-fly zone would lead to large-scale conventional war between NATO and Russia and 13 percent thought it could lead to nuclear war.
- Topic:
- NATO, Nuclear Weapons, War, Escalation, and Instability
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America
368. CAN ISRAEL REMAIN BOTH NEUTRAL AND PART OF THE WEST?
- Author:
- Michael Barnett
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- Israel is getting some unwanted attention because of its reluctance to outrightly condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine. No one believes that the failure to condemn translates into support for the attack. But Israel’s reticence has placed it in an awkward situation—one that might, in fact, translate into a loss of support from Western countries when Israel needs it most.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Conflict, Neutrality, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, Middle East, Israel, and Eastern Europe
369. WHY A SETTLEMENT IN UKRAINE REMAINS OUT OF REACH
- Author:
- Valerie Sticher
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- The Russian invasion and unfolding humanitarian catastrophe in Ukraine show the limits of diplomacy. Despite warning of an impending invasion, efforts to stop the war failed. And despite the high costs on all sides, efforts to stop this horrific war remain elusive. Why is this the case?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, War, and Humanitarian Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe
370. HOW HISTORICAL ANALOGIES WOKE UP THE WEST
- Author:
- Eric Mosinger
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- Policymakers, activists, and ordinary people often make analogies between past and present, for example, by labeling 9/11 “the Pearl Harbor of the 21st century.” In doing so, people hope to better understand surprising events and develop a plan of action for themselves and others. Vladimir Putin employed historical analogies to justify his invasion of Ukraine, while Western leaders drew on their own understanding of World War II history to mobilize a surprisingly muscular response to Russian aggression.
- Topic:
- War, History, and Vladimir Putin
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe
371. WHY OFFSHORE FINANCE LIMITS U.S. SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA
- Author:
- Menevis Cilizoglu and Chelsea Estancona
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- More than 1,000 individuals and entities have now been targeted with sanctions since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, including more than 50 oligarchs close to Putin and their families. These measures include the freezing of assets in international banks, seizure of yachts, private jets, and luxury real estate, and travel bans. Western policymakers hope that targeting a wide network of Russian political and economic elites, including oil executives, steel tycoons, media moguls and high-level intelligence officers will isolate Putin and pressure him to reverse course. The million-dollar question is, can these targeted measures actually hurt Russian oligarchs, let alone pressure Putin?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, War, Sanctions, Offshore Finance, and Shell Companies
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and United States of America
372. Russia Futures: Three Trajectories
- Author:
- Cyrus Newlin and Andrew Lohsen
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Beginning in 2018, the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at CSIS initiated a research project to explore scenarios related to Russia’s future development and to consider the transatlantic implications of each scenario. The project, which was generously funded by the Norwegian Foreign Ministry, was intended to provide policymakers with an understanding of how Russia’s domestic political situation, economic outlook, military activities, and foreign policy might evolve in response to modern-day challenges including climate change, growing competition in the Arctic, and the fraught relationship between China and the collective West. Based on original research and workshops involving U.S., Norwegian, and European experts, CSIS identified three potential scenarios for Russia’s future development. The first scenario envisioned a path of continuity, in which Russian leaders strove to maintain the status quo. The second scenario foresaw a trend of risk reduction in the Kremlin’s decisionmaking that led to a partial normalization of relations with the West. The third scenario considered a darker future, in which Russian leaders accepted a higher degree of risk to manage mounting problems at home and abroad, leading to sustained confrontation with the West and the further detachment of the Russian government from its people. These scenarios were being prepared for publication when Russian president Vladimir Putin launched a renewed invasion of Ukraine on February 24 and ushered in a period of deep uncertainty for European and global affairs. Almost immediately, Russia’s act of aggression turned the country into a global pariah, triggering international sanctions far beyond the Kremlin’s expectations and consolidating transatlantic unity to an extent that was difficult to imagine in the tense months immediately preceding the invasion. As orthodoxies have been challenged and expectations reconsidered, contingencies that were thought impossible—from embargoes of Russian hydrocarbons to the potential use of nuclear weapons by the Kremlin—are starting to feature into conversations among policymakers and analysts.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Development, Economics, and Military Strategy
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Europe
373. The Kremlin Playbook 3: Keeping the Faith
- Author:
- Heather A Conley and Donatienne Ruy
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- For six years, the Kremlin Playbook series has studied Russia’s malign influence efforts in Europe, primarily through the economic lens. This research showed the Kremlin has developed a pattern of malign economic influence in Europe through the cultivation of “an opaque network of patronage across the region that it uses to influence and direct decision-making.” The aim is to weaken democratic systems from within, using existing and creating new societal divides. But what if Russia, for its own malign purposes, were to seek to influence religious or traditional views? The Kremlin Playbook 3: Keeping the Faith aims to protect these beliefs by exposing how Russian malign influence works in this particularly challenging and very personal dimension—a new strategic seam—to ensure citizens do not unwittingly become part of an influence operation. The instrumentalization of values, traditions, and religious beliefs is a relatively recent and particularly pernicious front of the Kremlin’s influence efforts in Europe and elsewhere. This study investigates these dynamics in four case study countries: Bosnia and Herzegovina, France, Georgia, and Greece. This report explores how the United States and its European allies can protect the religious beliefs and values of their citizens from malign influence at a time when transatlantic societies are grappling with the speed of societal change. Societal anxiety and fear related to these rapid economic, demographic, and generational shifts—and the subsequent politics and political figures that seek to capitalize on them—have fueled societal divisions around the so-called cultural wars in Western societies. Through two main channels, the Orthodox world and the traditional values ecosystem, the Kremlin has taken advantage of these fears to accentuate societal wedges in Europe and Eurasia.
- Topic:
- Economics, Hegemony, Strategic Interests, and Influence
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Europe
374. Russia’s Losing Hand in Ukraine
- Author:
- Seth G. Jones, Philip G. Wasieleswki, and Joseph S. Bermudez Jr.
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The United States and its partners and allies should be prepared to conduct a sustained diplomatic, economic, military, and humanitarian campaign that supports Ukraine and raises the financial and military costs for Moscow of meddling in Ukraine—both now and in the future. Russia has several weaknesses that can be exploited, and Ukrainian nationalism and Western resolve could present formidable, long-term problems for Moscow.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Military Intervention, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
375. What the First Week of Fighting in Ukraine Tells Us About a Potential Insurgency
- Author:
- Alec Worsnop
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM)
- Abstract:
- While the Russian advance in Ukraine has been slower than expected, its overwhelming conventional superiority gives it the upper hand. Despite the valiant resistance of many Ukrainians, Russia will probably conquer all or a portion of the country. However, the first week of the conflict has provided some useful information about the prospects for an insurgent campaign in the wake of a Russian occupation.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Military Intervention, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
376. Starr Forum: The Collapse of the Soviet Empire and the seeds of the new European war
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- Vladislav Zubok is professor of international history, with expertise on the Cold War, the Soviet Union, Stalinism, and Russia’s intellectual history in the 20th century. His most recent books are Collapse: The Fall of the Soviet Union (2021), The Idea of Russia: The Life and Work of Dmitry Likhachev (2017), Dmitry Likhachev. The Life and the Century (in Russian, 2016) A Failed Empire: the Soviet Union in the Cold War from Stalin to Gorbachev (2007) and Zhivago’s Children: the Last Russian Intelligentsia (2009). Co-chairs: Carol Saivetz is a senior advisor in the MIT Security Studies Program. She is the author and contributing co-editor of books and articles on Soviet and now Russian foreign policy issues. Elizabeth Wood is professor of history at MIT. She is the author most recently of Roots of Russia’s War in Ukraine. She is co-director of the MISTI MIT Russia Program, coordinator of Russian studies, and adviser to the Russian Language Program.
- Topic:
- Cold War, Governance, Leadership, Conflict, and Empire
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Soviet Union
377. Fact Sheet: Global Demonstrations Against the Russian Invasion of Ukraine
- Author:
- Sam Jones
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- Following the Russian invasion, a wave of demonstrations in solidarity with Ukraine spread around the world. Between 24 February and 4 March, ACLED records more than 1,800 demonstrations in support of Ukraine and against Russian aggression globally. During this time, demonstrations were reported across at least 93 countries and territories (see map below). Nearly all of these demonstrations — over 99% — were peaceful (i.e. protesters engaged in neither violence nor destructive activity).
- Topic:
- Solidarity, Conflict, Demonstrations, and Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and Global Focus
378. Rewinding the Clock? US-Russia Relations in the Biden Era
- Author:
- Bobo Lo
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
- Abstract:
- The escalating crisis in Ukraine in the winter of 2021-2022 has returned US-Russia relations to center stage. Faced with the prospect of a new Russian military intervention, US President Joe Biden has re-engaged with Vladimir Putin in a manner reminiscent of the diplomacy of the superpower era. But this latest American attempt at accommodation raises more questions than answers. In the intervening three decades the world has changed out of all recognition, the international influence of the US-Russia relationship is much diminished, and their cooperation has sunk to historic lows. Can Washington and Moscow defy gravity and achieve some level of pragmatic engagement? There is good reason for skepticism. Neither side is truly invested in cooperation, but instrumentalizes it to other purposes. The Biden administration hopes to neutralize Russia in order to focus on the all-encompassing challenge of China. The Kremlin looks to undermine American influence as part of its project of promoting Russia as an independent global power. These goals are essentially irreconcilable. Looking ahead, the real question is not whether the United States and Russia can recalibrate their relationship to new “normal”, but whether they can avoid confrontation in an increasingly fluid and disorderly world.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Military Intervention, Vladimir Putin, and Joe Biden
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, North America, and United States of America
379. The Russian-Iran Partnership in a Multipolar World
- Author:
- Clément Therme
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
- Abstract:
- The strengthening of the partnership between Russia and Iran depends on overlapping security interests; bilaterally, regionally and on the world stage. Tehran has pursued a regional policy program that is largely in line with Russia’s interests, whether these relate to Syria (from 2011), the Caucasus, Central Asia, or Afghanistan (since 1991). This security dimension was already one of the foundations of the bilateral relationship in the post-Cold War-period. It has now appeared in regional dealings between Tehran and Moscow. In addition, the decline of US international predominance, which has been apparent since the 2000s, has allowed Russia and Iran to develop a shared ideological discourse in opposition to “Western values”. Beyond this shared ideological basis, Tehran has developed a true “Realpolitik” whereby it relies on Russian foreign policy to relieve US pressure on Iran that is aimed at regime change or, at the very least, a change in the behavior of the Islamic Republic. In other words, in seeking to preserve intact the main ideological tenets of its regime, Tehran has added a new dimension to its relationship with Moscow. Since 1991, this relationship has become a matter of survival for a regime that faces both popular opposition at home and external pressure from Washington: pressure that increased during the Trump administration of 2017-2021.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, and Multipolarity
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Iran, and Middle East
380. Arctic: Toward the End of the Exception? Strategic, Nuclear and Maritime Issues in the Region
- Author:
- Jean-Louis Lozier
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
- Abstract:
- Through multiple international initiatives, including the creation of the Arctic Council at the end of the Cold War in 1996, the Arctic appears to be one of the last areas of peaceful cooperation in the world. This “Arctic exception” is also devoid of any serious territorial dispute between the neighboring countries, some of which are nevertheless great powers: Russia, the United States, Canada, but also Sweden, Norway, Denmark (via Greenland), Iceland and Finland. However, this peaceful cooperation is not exempt from strategic rivalries: for some years now, these States in the Arctic have been redefining their strategic postures, notably through the publication of roadmaps and the deployment of new military forces trained to fight in this hostile environment. Russia thus remains the dominant power in the Arctic, in the face of a China with growing ambitions and a Western world – represented in particular by the United States – which is lagging behind after years concentrated on other military conflicts. Furthermore, the war in Ukraine that started in February 2022 also carry the germs of a broader destabilization of the region. Conventional competition is therefore renewed between these great powers, while the nuclear balance is partially maintained. It is indeed worth noticing that the Arctic is an area of direct contact between the Russian Federation and the United States. As such, it had a special significance during the Cold War as the shortest route between both adversaries for a potential ballistic missile and was a privileged position for deploying chains of radars and advanced detection systems. Finally, the shrinkage of the ice pack caused by global warming is also triggering the neighboring or more distant states’ greed, whether through the drilling possibilities for raw materials under the ice floe or the creation of new maritime routes. The latter would notably enable Russia to revitalize its northern flank and offer alternatives to existing transit routes.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Climate Change, Cold War, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Arctic, United States of America, and North Pole
381. Saving Energy in a Hurry Reducing Dependence on Russian Hydrocarbons Requires Resolute Demand and Supply Sides Action
- Author:
- Cédric Philibert
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
- Abstract:
- Facing Russia’s aggression on Ukraine, European countries have enacted economic and financial sanctions against Russia. • However, heavily dependent on Russian gas, European countries fear possible countersanctions. • On the other hand, Russia is heavily dependent, first and foremost, on oil exports, but also, yet to a lesser extent, on gas exports to Europe. Oil and gas represent more than half its total export revenues. • European countries should distinguish two policy needs: reducing their dependence on Russian gas to mitigate the impacts of possible countersanctions; reducing the demand for Russian oil to increase the economic pressure on Russia. • Reducing demand for Russian oil can be much easier for European countries to endure and can be done immediately with an active involvement of the civil society, from companies to citizens. It would ease the cost impacts on European citizens and give them ways to express their solidarity with Ukraine.
- Topic:
- Security, Oil, Sanctions, European Union, and Gas
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
382. Fiscal support and monetary vigilance: Economic policy implications of the Russia-Ukraine war for the European Union
- Author:
- Olivier Blanchard and Jean Pisani-Ferry
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- The economic shock from the war in Ukraine is forcing Europe to face difficult policy choices, according to Olivier Blanchard and Jean Pisani-Ferry. Governments must decide how best to soften the blow of higher energy and food prices, and how much to rely on debt finance. The European Central Bank must decide how to balance the fight against inflation with the need to sustain aggregate demand, in the face of decreases in real income. The authors analyze the impact of the war on the European economy, discuss the pros and cons of policy options, and call for coherence in balancing sanctions, fiscal measures, and monetary policy. They argue for the use of transfers rather than across-the-board subsidies and point to the room for debt finance. They show the potential role of tripartite wage agreement and also argue that monetary policy can remain on its current trajectory but be ready to adjust.
- Topic:
- War, European Union, Economy, and Fiscal Policy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
383. Starr Forum: The Russian-Ukrainian Conflict: A prologue to WWIII or another frozen conflict?
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- Dmitry Gorenburg is a senior research scientist at CNA, where he has worked since 2000. Dr. Gorenburg is an associate at the Harvard University Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies. His research interests include security issues in the former Soviet Union, Russian military reform, Russian foreign policy, and ethnic politics and identity. Olga Oliker is the program director for Europe and Central Asia at the International Crisis Group. Her research interests include foreign and security policies of Russia, Ukraine, and the Central Asian and Caucasian successor states to the Soviet Union, domestic politics in these countries, US policy towards the region, and nuclear weapon strategy and arms control. She received her PhD from the MIT Department of Political Science. Serhii Plokhii is the Mykhailo S. Hrushevs'kyi Professor of Ukrainian History and director of the Ukrainian Research Institute at Harvard University. His research interests include the intellectual, cultural, and international history of Eastern Europe, with an emphasis on Ukraine. Carol Saivetz is a senior advisor in the MIT Security Studies Program. She is a research associate at Harvard’s Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies and the Harvard Ukrainian Research Institute. Dr Saivetz is the author and contributing co-editor of books and articles on Soviet and now Russian foreign policy issues, including an assessment of the “reset,” Russian policies toward the other Soviet successor states, and current US-Russian relations. Elizabeth Wood is professor of history at MIT. She is the author most recently of Roots of Russia’s War in Ukraine (Woodrow Wilson Center and Columbia University Press, 2016). She is co-director of the MIT Russia Program, coordinator of Russian studies, and adviser to the Russian Language Program.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, War, Military Strategy, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
384. The Impact of Finland's and Sweden's Accession to NATO on the Security of the Alliance
- Author:
- Wojciech Lorenz
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO will increase the Alliance’s ability to conduct collective defence missions in the Baltic Sea region and to deter Russia. Therefore, the gains from the enlargement of the Alliance will far exceed the costs, which may include the need to create a new command responsible for missions on the Northern Flank of NATO. However, Türkiye’s opposition may prolong the accession process and increase the risk associated with the intensification of Russia’s provocative actions against the candidates.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Alliance, and Deterrence
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Turkey, Finland, North America, and Sweden
385. Before the Invasion: The Russian-Belarusian Allied Resolve Exercises
- Author:
- Anna Maria Dyner
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- On 10-20 February, Belarus hosted the active phase of the Belarusian-Russian manoeuvres Allied Resolve, after which Russian troops remained in the country. The drills preceded the Russian invasion of Ukraine that started on 24 February. The scenario was an extension of last year’s Zapad exercises and simulated actions against the countries of NATO’s Eastern Flank and Ukraine. The manoeuvres showed Russia’s ability to deploy units over long distances (more than 10,000 km) and the high interoperability of the Russian and Belarusian armed forces. The growing military integration of Belarus and Russia, along with the decision to leave Russian military units in Belarus, is a challenge for NATO in the context of defending its Eastern Flank and its policy towards Ukraine.
- Topic:
- Armed Forces, Conflict, and Military Exercises
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Eurasia, and Belarus
386. Eritrea as an Informal Representative of the Pro-Russia Forces in Africa
- Author:
- Jędrzej Czerep
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Eritrea was the only African country to vote against the UN General Assembly (UNGA) resolution on 2 March condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Although this voice was isolated, Eritrea has become the informal representative of a larger group of states on the continent critical of the West. The possible enlargement of this pro-Russia bloc will depend on the financial and military ability of Russia to remain active in Africa.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, United Nations, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Russia, and Eritrea
387. Turkey's Role in the Russian-Ukrainian Negotiations
- Author:
- Aleksandra Maria Spancerska
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The Russian-Ukrainian negotiations held on 29 March in Istanbul demonstrates that Turkey is assuming the role of an intermediary. Its policy of balancing between Russia and Ukraine is backed by the majority of the Turkish public, which gives President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan more freedom to manoeuvre. Acting as an intermediary in the conflict may allow Turkey an opportunity to start improving the strained relations with the European Union and the United States.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, European Union, Conflict, and Negotiation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine
388. The Course of Cooperation between Russia and its Latin American Partners
- Author:
- Bartlomiej Znojek
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- For the past several years, Russia has been strengthening ties with the authoritarian regimes of Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela, and has developed cooperation with other Latin American countries as an investor in the energy sector, a supplier of weapons and Sputnik-V COVID-19 vaccine, and in other areas. Most Latin American governments have condemned the Russian aggression against Ukraine, but they have not imposed sanctions on Russia. It is in the EU’s interest to persuade its Latin American partners of the validity of the restrictions and to work together to mitigate the negative economic effects of the war.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, War, Sanctions, Authoritarianism, Partnerships, and Vaccine
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, Cuba, Latin America, Nicaragua, and Venezuela
389. The International Dimension of the U.S. Strategy on Countering Corruption
- Author:
- Mateusz Piotrowski
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The first Strategy on Countering Corruption, adopted on 6 December 2021, assumes that by making better use of existing international regulations and organisations, as well as by establishing new mechanisms, the U.S. will tighten global anti-corruption cooperation. The American goal is to limit the freedom to conduct financial operations by authoritarian states, mainly China and Russia, and at the same time to strengthen democratic countries and promote democracy. For Poland, this is an opportunity to tighten bilateral and multilateral cooperation with the United States.
- Topic:
- Corruption, International Cooperation, Authoritarianism, Democracy, and Multilateralism
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, North America, and United States of America
390. The Impact of the Russian Aggression Against Ukraine on the EU's Economy
- Author:
- Melchior Szczepanik
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- A spike in energy prices provoked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will inhibit the economic rebound in the EU. Member States will have to face high inflation for longer than previously expected. Forced to increase spending, they also could postpone plans to reduce their debts. The conflict with Russia is mobilising the Community to speed up the development of renewable energy and reduce dependencies on third countries, especially authoritarian ones, in strategic sectors.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, War, European Union, Economy, and Inflation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
391. Belarus's Reaction to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine
- Author:
- Anna Maria Dyner
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- From the very beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Belarusian authorities have sided with Russia, supporting it politically and militarily, including making its territory available to the Russian troops. In this way, Belarus is also an aggressor and, as a consequence, the EU and the U.S. have imposed further sanctions on it. Regardless of the attempts to engage in Ukrainian-Russian negotiations, Belarus will be negatively affected by the consequences of its government’s policy and the country, although formally sovereign, has ceased to be perceived as an independent entity in international relations.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Sovereignty, War, and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus
392. The EU's Prospects for Decoupling from Russian Gas
- Author:
- Maciej Zaniewicz
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The Russian aggression against Ukraine and cut-off of gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria have strengthened the arguments of supporters of EU independence from Russian gas. However, the prospect of a total embargo is still distant because of opposition from some countries, including Austria, Germany, and Hungary. As a result, the EU will focus on a gradual reduction in purchases of Russian gas, which will have a negative impact on the effectiveness of the sanctions against Russia. It is in Poland’s interest to strive for increasing the pace of diversification of gas supplies to the EU and reducing use.
- Topic:
- Sanctions, European Union, Gas, and Energy Dependence
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Poland, and Bulgaria
393. New Perspectives for Nuclear Energy in the EU
- Author:
- Maciej Zaniewicz and Zuzanna Nowak
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- EU countries opposing nuclear energy, mainly Austria and Germany, are trying to limit its development in the Union by using the dispute over the details of the “green taxonomy”. The Russian aggression against Ukraine, however, has strengthened the arguments of supporters of this technology. They present nuclear energy as a way to make Europe independent of Russian gas and oil imports while reducing CO2 emissions. The final shape of the delegated act supplementing the taxonomy and the date of its entry into force will significantly affect the future of new nuclear projects in the EU, including in Poland.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, European Union, Carbon Emissions, and Nuclear Energy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Germany, and Austria
394. Russia's Wartime Censorship and Propaganda
- Author:
- Agnieszka Legucka
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- In connection with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Russian authorities have introduced wartime censorship, forbidding the publication of content that does not conform to the official message of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation. This massive and unprecedented propaganda is leading to an increase in support for Vladimir Putin, and Russians protesting against the war are being brutally repressed and persecuted. The consequence is the strengthening of the totalitarian character of the Russian state and the emigration of Russians who do not support the war. The most significant element of the Russian war propaganda is that of “denazification”, a claim aimed also at Poland.
- Topic:
- War, Authoritarianism, Media, Propaganda, and Censorship
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
395. Bringing Russia Back in From the Cold
- Author:
- Nikolas Gvosdev and Damjan. Krnjevic Miskovic
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Baku Dialogues
- Institution:
- ADA University
- Abstract:
- Our reasoning is straightforward: for better or worse, Ukraine will never be as important to the West as it is to Russia—and this would be true even if Ukraine was the only item on their respective stra- tegic agendas. But this last is very far from being the case today—cer- tainly for the United States, whose leadership of the West has again been reaffirmed thanks to the conflict over Ukraine. To main- tain and perhaps even strengthen that leadership against China—a country that Biden defines as being in “competition [with the United States] to win the twenty-first cen- tury”—America stands to benefit greatly from bringing Russia back in from the cold.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Leadership, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, Ukraine, Asia, North America, and United States of America
396. Prospects for Pax Caucasia? The 3+3 Regional Cooperation Initiative
- Author:
- Vasif Huseynov
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Baku Dialogues
- Institution:
- ADA University
- Abstract:
- The 3+3 format for regional cooperation is an initiative that was first proposed by the leaders of Turkey and Azerbaijan in the aftermath of the Second Karabakh War, building somewhat on an idea that originated in Iran during the war itself. This grouping covers the three countries of the South Caucasus (Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia) plus the three most important countries neighboring this region (Russia, Turkey, and Iran). Thus in December 2020, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announced the initiative at a joint press conference with his Azerbaijani counterpart, President Ilham Aliyev, during his visit to Baku in which he reviewed the military parade marking Azerbaijan’s victory over Armenia in the aforementioned war—a war that heralded the fundamental transformation of regional geopolitical and geo‑economic realities. On this occasion, Erdoğan called 3+3 a win‑win initiative for all actors in the region. Given its obvious potential to promote peace and security in the South Caucasus and facilitate the normalization of relations between former belligerents, some local experts believe that the 3+3 initiative could be instrumental for the emergence of Pax Caucasia. Four of the six countries immediately reacted positively to the initiative, with Armenia and Georgia expressing some reservation. While Armenia initially sounded skeptical, the government of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan eventually confirmed its participation in this format. For now, the only country that retains distance from the Pax Caucasia process is Georgia which, due to its ongoing territorial dispute with Russia, refuses to participate in this platform and proposes an alternative 3+2 format (the countries of the South Caucasus + the EU and the United States). Tbilisi has called its counterproposal the “Peaceful Neighborhood Initiative” but has taken no concrete action to set it in motion. Neither Aliyev nor Pashinyan have yet to publicly comment on the 3+2 format. Others have also remained silent. Hence, the likelihood it can prevail over the 3+3 framework in geopolitical substance is low, given that it excludes major active regional players like Russia and Turkey and substitutes them with two Western actors that are evidently less engaged in the region. The advent of the present phase of the conflict over Ukraine, which began on 24 February 2022, has also not increased the prospects of the Georgian idea being adopted, either.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Iran, Turkey, Caucasus, Middle East, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia
397. The Alliance of Civilizations and the Role of Spain
- Author:
- Ramon Blecua
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Baku Dialogues
- Institution:
- ADA University
- Abstract:
- The crisis over Ukraine reinforces the view that, despite progress in many areas on the international agenda in recent years, the number of people affected by conflict and violence keeps growing. In the past 20 years, the number of forcibly displaced people has doubled, reaching over 80 million. According to United Nations data, over 60 percent of conflicts have relapsed in the last decade, a staggering figure that testifies of the difficulty of conflict resolution in this context. More than 80 percent of conflicts over the past 30 years involve militias and non‑state actors, while the more recent rise in transnational violent extremist groups has increased the challenges for conflict resolution. Civil wars are leading to more protracted conflicts with ethno‑cultural components, which complicate the traditional political approach. Existing multilateral mechanisms and diplomatic negotiations are increasingly ineffective, and a new toolbox for conflict resolution is more urgent than ever. The combination of great power competition, regional struggles for hegemony, and the proliferation of non‑state actors create interlocking and multi‑layered conflicts that impact international peace and stability. At the same time, these elements are challenging the traditional approaches whilst further putting the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals at risk, as recognized inter alia by the latest Strategic Plan of the UN Department of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs. The international multilateral order is being questioned from many different quarters, while the wave of global protests shows the exhaustion of existing economic and political models, as well as the need for a new social contract. The impact of the pandemic and the measures taken to control it are also having a profound impact on these new political and economic dynamics, laying bare the growing inequalities of the new digital economy as well as the weakening of solidarity and common action. The increasingly intricate fabric of peace and conflict and the multiplicity of actors involved have made conflict resolution more complex, as stated in the December 2020 Concept on EU Peace Mediation. Terrorism and radicalization have become a more imminent security threat and tensions related to environmental degradation, irregular migration and forced displacement, are affecting the social fabric in fragile states in unprecedented manners.
- Topic:
- Security, Military Strategy, Alliance, Multilateralism, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Spain
398. Turkey’s Changing Posture on Russia and America
- Author:
- Hasan Unal
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Baku Dialogues
- Institution:
- ADA University
- Abstract:
- As of this writing, tensions between Russia and Ukraine appeared to continue unabated, despite the Putin‑Biden online meeting and the exchange of several messages between Washington and Moscow aimed at reducing them. The crisis has kept almost everyone guessing as to where all this is heading: will they subside or spiral out control? Will Russia invade Ukraine? If it does, how will America and its allies respond? As things stand at present, it sure seems as though Russia and the U.S. and its allies have gridlocked themselves into a crisis without any sensible way out. The former was emboldened by the feckless handling of the crisis by the Biden Administration such that Moscow now wants to dictate terms to America and NATO that amount to something like this: “give us proper, preferably written assurances that Ukraine and Georgia will not be admitted to NATO.” Team Biden, which has inadvisably goaded Ukraine against Russia for a second time in less than a year with its much‑hyped ‘America is back’ slogan cannot simply comply with the request. At the same time, America cannot stand up to Russia militarily in that part of the world. Moreover, neither the United States nor its NATO allies that have considerable military clout are prepared to make a promise to Ukraine regarding admission to NATO. Indeed, just as this edition of Baku Dialogues was going to press, the hectic diplomacy between NATO and Russia on the one hand and the U.S. and Russia on the other, climaxing in the latest meetings of 11‑12 January 2022, broke up with no agreement. This has given rise to further concern that the ongoing conflict is going to perpetuate. From Turkey’s perspective, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has turned insoluble— akin in not unimportant ways to the Turkish‑Greek dispute, with its clusters of psychologically combustible elements freely circulating across the board. Should Russia invade Ukraine, it would presumably trigger a harsh package of sanctions by both the EU and the U.S.; this would likely hurt Moscow considerably, albeit hardly enough to budge it from staying the course. Should the U.S. and NATO simply give in to Russia’s ultimatum, then this would amount to a complete surrender of the Western powers— particularly after the disastrous U.S. debacle in Afghanistan. At the same time, the likelihood that Russia will step back entirely from its position—that, in other words, it will calmly accept the prospect of the admission of Ukraine and Georgia to NATO—is close to zero. Thus, it is possible to conclude that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on the one hand, and the U.S.‑led West and Russia on the other, will perpetuate.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Infrastructure, Hegemony, and Silk Road
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Turkey, North America, and United States of America
399. Terms, Conditions, Intersecting Interests Turkey and Regional Cooperation After the Second Karabakh War
- Author:
- Ayça Ergun
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Baku Dialogues
- Institution:
- ADA University
- Abstract:
- This essay should be understood as a series of reflections on the geopolitics of the South Caucasus in the aftermath of the Second Karabakh War and how this has provided Turkey with a great opportunity to revisit, redefine, and even consolidate its newfound role and mission in the region. It is predicated on the assessment that, starting in July 2020, Turkey became more proactive and involved in the region, which in turn laid the foundation for a game‑changing development; Turkey’s stature then grew even further in the wake of the 10 November 2020 tripartite statement between Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Russia that ended the Second Karabakh War. Now Ankara is taking on a balancing role—if not quite a mediating one—in the region. The situation is not straightforward: the well‑consolidated empowerment of the Russian Federation in the wake of the war has ensured its continuing status as the main mediator in conflict resolution as well as open the possibility for it to become a genuine peacemaker. Turkey is considered the main balancing power to potentially check or restrain Russia’s dominant position, at least down the road. But for now, Russia can be considered as “being fully back” on the ground: its armed forces are present in each of the three South Caucasus states—by invitation or otherwise. This lends a certain pallor of instability to the newly achieved status quo, although this is not widely recognized, much less pronounced in Turkey and in Azerbaijan. It is thus too early to speak about full‑on regional integration, which will take time to bring about. Yet already today there is potential for the realization of regional cooperation. The ideas related to the latter are being discussed in various fora, yet the feasibility of the implementation of these ideas remains open to interpretation.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Hegemony, Geopolitics, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Turkey, Armenia, and Azerbaijan
400. How Russia Fights
- Author:
- Nicolò Fasola
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- NATO Defense College
- Abstract:
- Until this year’s renewed aggression on Ukraine, over-reliance on catchy labels such as “hy- brid war” has led many observers and deci- sion-makers to under-appreciate (if not disregard com- pletely) one undeniable fact: that over the last 20 years, the Kremlin has achieved its key strategic goals mainly through kinetic military means. Notwithstanding a weak tactical performance, Rus- sia won the 2008 “August war” against Georgia in only five days and successfully imposed its own regional set- tlement. In 2014, the annexation of Crimea, while sup- ported by the promotion of favourable socio-political conditions, was carried out and secured militarily; even more so in the Donbas campaign, where Russian propa- ganda suffered from serious limitations. Finally, the role of the Russian military in Syria beginning in 2015 was evident, albeit frequently reduced solely to the use of the Aerospace Forces. Notably, and besides obvious differences linked with the specifics of each theatre, the military interventions that Russia has conducted since 2008 display a consistent modus operandi. An analysis of these experiences can help illuminate what Russia is doing today and might do in the future, thus enabling NATO to fine-tune its posture on the Eastern flank. This Policy Brief draws on an expanded research project regarding Russia’s approach to war, as well as on a wealth of Russian-language military essays and commentary – deliberately highlighting the way the Russian military thinks of and practises war on its own terms.
- Topic:
- War, Military Strategy, Military Intervention, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Europe