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102. Lebanon's Presidential Race
- Author:
- David Schenker
- Publication Date:
- 05-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The thorny parliamentary process of selecting a new president could rekindle violence if it results in substantial delays or further sectarian friction. Last week, Lebanon's parliament convened for the first round of balloting to elect a new president. While Samir Geagea -- who leads the Christian "Lebanese Forces" party, which is aligned with the pro-Western March 14 coalition -- received the most votes, he failed to secure the requisite two-thirds parliamentary support. In the coming weeks, legislators are slated to continue meeting until a president is selected. Unlike last week's session, in which the Hezbollah-led March 8 bloc did not challenge Geagea's candidacy, the voting promises to become increasingly contentious in subsequent rounds. Perennial sectarian tensions exacerbated by the war next door in Syria have complicated the historically wrought and arcane election process. Should a compromise candidate not emerge by May 25, the term of current president Michel Suleiman will expire, leaving the post vacant. In the past, the presidency -- which by law must be held by a Christian -- was the dominant office in Lebanon's government. But the 1989 Taif Accord effectively stripped the position of its powers, delegating them to the prime minister, who must hail from the Sunni Muslim constituency. Given the post's largely symbolic nature, some might argue that the tense selection process is much ado about nothing. Yet the presidency remains an emotionally evocative issue for Lebanese Christians, and both the March 8 and March 14 blocs see a sympathetic chief executive as an important advantage worth fighting for.
- Topic:
- Religion, Power Politics, Regime Change, and Public Opinion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
103. Islamists in Government: Do They Moderate Once in Power?
- Author:
- Haroon Ullah, Eric Trager, and Vish Sakthivel
- Publication Date:
- 05-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- A senior State Department advisor and two Washington Institute scholars discuss what lessons can -- and cannot -- be drawn from the Islamist political experience in Egypt, Pakistan, Morocco, and other countries.
- Topic:
- Islam, Religion, and Political Activism
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Middle East, Arabia, Egypt, and Morocco
104. Shabab al-Tawhid: The Rebranding of Ansar al-Sharia in Tunisia?
- Author:
- Aaron Y. Zelin
- Publication Date:
- 05-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Security crackdowns will not be enough to eradicate jihadist networks in Tunisia and Libya, which have the patience and ideological conviction to weather drastic reorganization. Eight months ago, the Tunisian government officially designated Ansar al-Sharia in Tunisia (AST) as a terrorist organization. Since then, Tunis has cracked down on the group's activities, going after both its dawa campaign (i.e., proselytization and social-welfare efforts) and any links members have to terrorist plots. On the whole, AST's public response has been to keep relatively quiet. Yet recent developments indicate that the group may be rebranding itself as Shabab al-Tawhid (ST; the Youth of Pure Monotheism), a shift that would have important implications for efforts to counter Tunisian jihadists and their associates in Libya.
- Topic:
- Islam, Religion, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Border Control
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Libya, Arabia, and Tunisia
105. Choreographies of Shared Sacred Sites: Religion, Politics, and Conflict Resolution
- Author:
- Elazar Barkan and Barkey Karen
- Publication Date:
- 11-2014
- Content Type:
- Book
- Institution:
- Columbia University Press
- Abstract:
- This anthology explores the dynamics of shared religious sites in Turkey, the Balkans, Palestine/Israel, Cyprus, and Algeria, indicating where local and national stakeholders maneuver between competition and cooperation, coexistence and conflict. Contributors probe the notion of coexistence and the logic that underlies centuries of "sharing," exploring when and why sharing gets interrupted--or not--by conflict, and the policy consequences. These essays map the choreographies of shared sacred spaces within the framework of state-society relations, juxtaposing a site's political and religious features and exploring whether sharing or contestation is primarily religious or politically motivated. Although religion and politics are intertwined phenomena, the contributors to this volume understand the category of "religion" and the "political" as devices meant to distinguish between the theological and confessional aspects of religion and the political goals of groups. Their comparative approach better represents the transition in some cases of sites into places of hatred and violence, while in other instances they remain noncontroversial. The essays clearly delineate the religious and political factors that contribute to the context and causality of conflict at these sites and draw on history and anthropology to shed light on the often rapid switch from relative tolerance to distress to peace and calm.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Religion, International Affairs, and Culture
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Eastern Europe, and North Africa
- Publication Identifier:
- 9780231169943
- Publication Identifier Type:
- ISBN
106. Israel's internal frontier: the enduring power of ethno-nationalism
- Author:
- Cathrine Thorleifsson
- Publication Date:
- 06-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
- Abstract:
- This policy brief examines the paradox of Mizrahim (Arab Jews) supporting right-wing Israeli policies through a case study of the border town of Kiryat Shemona. Based on ethnographic research, it illuminates the enduring power of ethno-nationalism and demonstrates how it affects Mizrahi lives. Mizrahim became trapped by Israeli nation-building on the geographic and socioeconomic margins of the state positioned between the dominant Ashkenazi elite and the Palestinian population. Factors such as Mizrahim's partial inclusion in the nation; tensions between Jews and Arabs, and between the secular and the religious; the decline of the welfare state; and a shared perception of threats and dangers informed everyday nationalism in the town. Mizrahim contested Ashkenazi Israeliness through ethnic and transnational identifications and practices. Simultaneously, their support for the nation-in-arms and identification as "strong"and "civilised" reinforced the dominant logic of ethno-nationalism. Mizrahi support for right-wing militarism is likely to persist as long as national unity is used as a colonial practice by the centre. The inclusion of Mizrahim as equals together with other marginalised citizens would necessarily entail an Israeli Spring.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Nationalism, Politics, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
107. Wahhabism vs. Wahhabism: Qatar Challenges Saudi Arabia
- Author:
- James M Dorsey
- Publication Date:
- 09-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- Qatar, a tiny energy-rich state in terms of territory and population, has exploded on to the world map as a major rival to the region’s behemoth, Saudi Arabia. By projecting itself through an activist foreign policy, an acclaimed and at times controversial global broadcaster, an airline that has turned it into a transportation hub and a host of mega sporting events, Qatar has sought to develop the soft power needed to compensate for its inability to ensure its security, safety and defence militarily. In doing so, it has demonstrated that size no longer necessarily is the determining factor for a state’s ability to enhance its influence and power. Its challenge to Saudi Arabia is magnified by the fact that it alongside the kingdom is the world’s only state that adheres to Wahhabism, an austere interpretation in Islam. Qatari conservatism is however everything but a mirror image of Saudi Arabia’s stark way of life with its powerful, conservative clergy, absolute gender segregation; total ban on alcohol and houses of worship for adherents of other religions, and refusal to accommodate alternative lifestyles or religious practices. Qatar’s alternative adaptation of Wahhabism coupled with its lack of an indigenous clergy and long-standing relationship with the Muslim Brotherhood, the region’s only organised opposition force, complicate its relationship with Saudi Arabia and elevate it to a potentially serious threat.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Persian Gulf
108. The Geopolitics of the Sunni-Shi'i Divide in the Middle East
- Author:
- Samuel Helfont
- Publication Date:
- 12-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute
- Abstract:
- In 2006, during the heart of the Global War on Terrorism, a New York Times reporter went to Washington in an attempt to ascertain the extent that American officials understood the ideologies underpinning Islamist terrorism. The reporter began with a simple question: could senior counterterrorism officials identify which groups were Sunnis and which were Shi'is? Remarkably senior officials and lawmakers – including the Chief of the F.B.I.‟s national security branch, and members of the U.S. House of Representatives‟ committees on intelligence and counter terrorism – had “no clue” whether actors such as Iran, Hezbollah, or al-Qaida were Sunnis or Shi„is. A number of questions emerged from this encounter. First, who are the Sunnis and Shi„is? Second, where are they located? And, finally, does it matter?
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Islam, Religion, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, Counterinsurgency, and Sectarianism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
109. Les madrasas chiites afghanes à l’aune iranienne : anthropologie d’une dépendance religieuse (The Afghan Shiites Madras in the Iranian news: the anthropology of religious dependance)
- Author:
- Fariba Adelkhah and Keiko Sakurai
- Publication Date:
- 01-2011
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
- Abstract:
- As a social institution, the madras must be analyzed in terms of their relationship to social, econmomic and political change and to the public educational system whose bureaucratic organization they have copied. In the case of Afghanistan they cannot be disassociated from the war and its consequences, such as emigration and the reconstitution of ethno-religious affiliations. Financed and run by the diaspora, they enable the Shiite minority, notably Hazara, to reestablish itself in the central State and to provide a counterweight to the Pachtoune domination. They also contribute to the education of girls and children from disfavored social classes. The dependeance of Shiite education in Afghanistan on the Iranian clergy has organizational, theological, financial and symbolique benefits. But it is accompanied by a reinvention of, and separation from, the Iranian model which should, in the minds of the religous authorities, lead to a national schism in Afghanistan of which Kaboul hopes to be the spiritual capital. The asymetric Irano-Afghan interaction illustrates the relevance of the notion of « religous dependence ».
- Topic:
- Education, Religion, War, Ethnicity, and Anthropology
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Iran, Middle East, and Asia
110. Religious dialogue and the quest for peace in the Middle East
- Author:
- Trond Bakkevig
- Publication Date:
- 02-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
- Abstract:
- Many political conflicts have a religious dimension, as religion is at the heart of the identities of those involved. Thus, religious dialogue may be a key to the peaceful resolution of these conflicts. Nowhere is this more true than the Holy Land. But how can such a dialogue be initiated and sustained, what problems does it face, and what is the character and role of a facilitator in the process? Here, Rev. Dr. and Canon Trond Bakkevig addresses these questions by drawing on his long experience of working in the area of religious dialogue between religious leaders of Israel and Palestine.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Religion, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
111. Iran, the Shia Crescent and the Arab Uprising
- Author:
- Atilla Sandıklı and Emin Salihi
- Publication Date:
- 08-2011
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- BILGESAM (Wise Men Center for Strategic Studies)
- Abstract:
- With the Arab Spring, the nature of the ruling parties has changed and the authoritarian regimes have started to be dethroned in the Middle East. These have resulted in a transformation process in the political geography of the region. The ruling parties in the Middle East that had been at the hands of a small elite or a certain sectarian groups for a long period of time have changed hands as a result of people’s movements or they have been forced to make reforms in the direction of democratization. The Shia Crescent, which has prospered with the rise of the Shia factor and become more apparent, has come to be a crucial dynamic for Iran’s clout in the region. The report “Iran, the Shia Crescent and the Arab Spring” mainly focuses on these issues: Iran’s foreign policy line as of 1979, the Shia factors in Middle Eastern countries, Iran’s influence on these factors, and Tehran’s attitudes and the movements in the face of the rebel movements in the Arab world. Moreover, the report assesses Iran’s reactions to the people’s movements in the Arab countries along with its aims in the direction of the Shia Crescent. Within this scope, it analyses Tehran’s different stance towards the rebellion that has erupted against the Syria’s ruling party, the Nusayris [Alawis], and how iTehranhas supported the current regime in Damascus.
- Topic:
- Religion, Sectarianism, Social Movement, Arab Spring, and Shia
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Arab Countries
112. Headscarf Ban and Discrimination
- Author:
- Dilek Cindoğlu
- Publication Date:
- 11-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
- Abstract:
- The headscarf ban applied in institutions of higher education, in the public sector, and as this research has shown, in the private sector, reveals the perspectives of the state and its institutions and as well of the society on human, women’s and citizens’ rights. The restrictions and barriers to entry of women to study and work in institutions of higher education and public sector institutions, in place since the 1960s, rest on a mentality that views women’s choices to wear headscarves as an attack on the secular regime, instead of treating their choices as a manifestation of their freedom of religion and belief. Consequently, the practices that were initially violating freedom of belief gradually deteriorated to cause further violations of rights to education, to employment, to equal access to public life and of basic rights and liberties such as the right to equality. The headscarf ban in institutions of higher education has for many years been and remains to be a widely debated and contested issue. Though there is a wealth of analysis, dialogue, debate and research on the subject, it is largely restricted to whether the headscarf ban in universities is justified or not. The impact that the ban has had on headscarved women’s lives have, on the other hand, been absent in the debates and analyses on the headscarf ban. A question that has not been featured in research and public debates so far is despite the public sector ban on the headscarf what are the experiences of those headscarved women at work who were able to graduate from university, but did not abandon their choice to wear headscarf to practice their faith and without? In other words, what is the impact of the headscarf ban in the public sector on the professional lives of higher educated headscarved women? Does this ban, which applies to public sector institutions, also hinder or restrict professional headscarved women as they apply for or work in private sector jobs? What obstacles are there for professional headscarved women to entering job markets in Turkey and to advancing their careers? This report is a product of TESEV Democratization Program’s quest to answer these questions. It examines one of the greatest roadblocks on Turkey’s path to democratization, the headscarf ban, and the implications of the ban on public and private sector employment to document the myriad forms of discrimination and rights violations that headscarved women face immediately after they decide to become working professionals. Though some forms of workplace discrimination 6 that headscarved women face also affect non-headscarved professional women with similar socio-economic backgrounds, the headscarf is the primary source of the majority of discrimination faced by professional headscarved women. Again, this report shows that the ban on the public sector spilled over to the private sector. Cases of discrimination and rights violations that are believed to have diminished and to even have been reversed in favor of headscarved women during the two terms of the AK Party administration continue to be recorded, especially and more vehemently in the private sector.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Gender Issues, Religion, Women, Inequality, and Discrimination
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
113. From Violence to Moderation: Al-Jama'a al-Islamiya and al-Jihad
- Author:
- Sarah Grebowski and Amr Hamzawy
- Publication Date:
- 04-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Recognition by Egypt's leading Jihadists that violence has failed to achieve political change and in fact has been counterproductive has led them to a remarkable change of course.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Islam, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Egypt
114. Won't You Be My Neighbor: Syria, Iraq and the Changing Strategic Context in the Middle East
- Author:
- Steven Simon
- Publication Date:
- 04-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- From a strategic perspective, Syria has gained some advantages and some disadvantages since the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003. President Bashar al - Asad, considered a callow leader five years ago, faced a testing period in 2003–06 and did more than merely survive. He withstood a threat of imminent regime change at the hands of the United States, and weathered heavy international fallout from the February 2005 assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri and the summer war in 2006 between Israel and Hezbollah, which Syria has long supported. Bashar has emerged a cagey geopolitical operator, able to manage a delicate strategic balance, and Syria is now stronger than it has been at any time in recent history. Yet Syria faces a number of internal challenges due to Iraq's instability. Primary among these is coping socially, economically, and politically with a huge influx of Iraqi refugees, and mitigating the effect that sectarian (Shia-Sunni) and ethnic (Arab-Kurd) conflict in Iraq has on the fragile status quo in Syria.
- Topic:
- Ethnic Conflict, Regional Cooperation, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, Arabia, and Syria
115. Israel's Religious Right and the Question of Settlements
- Publication Date:
- 07-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Benjamin Netanyahu is in a bind. Israel is facing arguably unprecedented pressure to halt all settlement activity, led by a new and surprisingly determined U.S. administration. But the prime minister also heads a distinctly right-wing coalition and faces intense domestic pressure from settlers and their allies. However important, what will emerge from current discussions between Washington and Jerusalem will only be step one in a long process designed to achieve a settlement freeze, settlement evacuation and a genuine peace agreement with the Palestinians. Understanding how Israel might deal with these challenges requires understanding a key yet often ignored constituency - its growing and increasingly powerful religious right.
- Topic:
- Politics, Religion, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
116. Land, Property, and the Challenge of Return for Iraq's Displaced
- Author:
- Deborah Isser and Peter Van der Auweraert
- Publication Date:
- 04-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Iraq has experienced several waves of mass displacement over the last forty years that have left complex land and property crises in their wake. As security has improved and some of the nearly five million displaced Iraqis have begun to come home, resolution of these issues are at the fore of sustainable return.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Ethnic Conflict, Migration, Religion, Terrorism, and War
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
117. “Modernity does not Tolerate Superstition” the Religious and Seculars in the Democratization Process
- Author:
- Onur Bayramoğlu
- Publication Date:
- 05-2009
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
- Abstract:
- The claim that change is a one-way process is quite outdated. We have begun to realize that integration across the world does not necessarily require becoming like the West, but rather implies a process of mutual adaptation. This realization enhances efforts to obtain an “insider’s view” of societies’ problems. Turkey is a country that has been modernizing for almost three centuries and attempting to integrate with its surroundings by going through such an adaptation. Major changes have occurred from the economy to judicial, educational and social rights. However, a range of issues from the lack of religious freedom to the Kurdish problem, latent inclination towards violence, and the practice of utilitarian political analysis also shows that with certain issues the traditional public opinion resurfaces without going through any change. Therefore, we have an inevitable question before us: how can it be that, despite all the effort towards modernization and the dynamics of change, we fail to solve some of our problems and continue to live with them? Although one is justified in criticizing the state for its failure to solve these problems, can only the state be held accountable? Or does the society, either consciously or implicitly, support the state’s resistance to problem-solving? These questions led TESEV to conduct a series of studies, which focus on issues such as secularism, religiosity, nationalism, family, the state, and rights. Through these studies TESEV attempted to unveil the mentality and the way in which Turkish people perceive themselves and their surroundings, as well as their references and the value systems implied by these references. We tried to grasp how the mentality change works, what kinds of breakpoints it creates, and how the conflicts created by these breakpoints are rationalized. We hope that the resulting assessments will not only create an effective reference in defining and conceiving the chaotic change dynamics of contemporary Turkey, but also serve to initiate new, more expansive and in-depth studies.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Religion, State, and Society
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean
118. PolicyWatch #1388: Saudi Arabia: Interfaith Talks Abroad, Intolerance at Home
- Author:
- Simon Henderson and Jasmine El-Gamal
- Publication Date:
- 07-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- This week, Saudi Arabia is organizing a global interfaith conference in Madrid, with more than 200 Muslim, Christian, Jewish, Hindu, and Buddhist religious leaders from 54 countries expected to attend. The conference, in the words of its main organizer, the Mecca-based Muslim World League, will "focus on common human values." Many in the West, however, will likely judge the conference as a Saudi public relations effort to emphasize its leadership of the Islamic world, and to ward off criticism, especially from the United States, that Saudi Arabia bears continuing responsibility for political and financial backing of Sunni extremists across the Middle East.
- Topic:
- Islam and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Saudi Arabia
119. PolicyWatch #1377: Treatment of Bahais: A Test of Human Rights in Iran
- Author:
- Mehdi Khalaji
- Publication Date:
- 06-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On May 14, the Iranian government arrested six prominent Bahai leaders and accused them of "endangering national security." The timing of the arrests has led some to speculate that the Iranian government is trying to link these leaders to the April explosion at a religious center in Shiraz that killed fourteen people. Considering Iran's clerical establishment believes the existence of religious minorities undermines official Shiite orthodoxy, these latest arrests are just another black mark on Iran's long and dismal record of protecting individual human rights and religious freedom.
- Topic:
- Government, Human Rights, Human Welfare, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
120. PolicyWatch #1335: Kirkuk's Article 140: Expired or Not?
- Author:
- Nazar Janabi
- Publication Date:
- 01-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Away from the headlines, Sunnis and Shiites are testing the waters of reconciliation in the Iraqi parliament with an agreement that may come at the expense of country's Kurdish population. The Kurdish political reaction to such an agreement could potentially exacerbate anti-Kurdish sentiment among many Arab parliamentarians, costing the Kurds some of the hard-earned political ground they have gained thus far.
- Topic:
- Government, Political Economy, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia
121. Turkey's Middle East Policies: Between Neo-Ottomanism and Kemalism
- Author:
- Ömer Taspinar
- Publication Date:
- 09-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- In what represents a remarkable departure from its policy of non-involvement, Turkey is once again becoming an important player in the Middle East. In recent years, Ankara has shown a growing willingness to mediate in the Arab– Israeli conflict; attended Arab League conferences; contributed to UN forces in Lebanon and NATO forces in Afghanistan; assumed a leadership position in the Organization of Islamic Conference and established closer ties with Syria, Iran, and Iraq.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy, Islam, Nationalism, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Syria
122. In the Shadow of the Brothers: The Women of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood
- Author:
- Omayma Abdel-Latif
- Publication Date:
- 10-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- In September 2007, the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt released its first political party platform draft. Among the heavily criticized clauses was one that denied women (and Copts) the right to be head of state. “Duties and responsibilities assumed by the head of state, such as army commanding, are in contradiction with the socially acceptable roles for women,” the draft stated. In previous Brotherhood documents there was no specific mention of the position of head of state; rather, they declared that women were allowed to occupy all posts except for al-imama alkubra, the position of caliph, which is the equivalent of a head of state in modern times. Many were surprised that despite several progressive moves the Brotherhood had made in previous years to empower women, it ruled out women's right to the country's top position.
- Topic:
- Gender Issues, Islam, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Egypt
123. The Fight for Diwaniyah: The Sadrist Trend and ISCI Struggle for Supremacy
- Author:
- Patrick Gaughen
- Publication Date:
- 01-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- Even as U.S. operations to co-opt large elements of the Sunni insurgency and target irreconciliable al-Qaeda in Iraq fighters resulted in lower levels of violence during the summer, U.S. forces have simultaneously pursued rogue elements of Muqtada as-Sadr's Jaysh al-Mahdi (JAM). These operations, often in collaboration with Iraqi Security Forces friendly to Sadr's main Shi'a rival, the Islamic Supreme Council in Iraq (ISCI), took place within the broader context of a violent struggle between ISCI and the Sadrist Trend for supremacy within the Shi'a community, the lucrative income from control of the Shi'a shrines, and control of southern oil fields. This struggle has increasingly centered on the city of Diwaniyah, located in southern Iraq, approximately halfway between the capital of Baghdad and the southern port city of Basrah.
- Topic:
- Religion, Terrorism, Military Strategy, and Armed Struggle
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, Yemen, and Syria
124. Iraq's Three Civil Wars
- Author:
- Juan Cole
- Publication Date:
- 02-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- All war situations are a little bit opaque, but from reading the Iraqi press in Arabic, I conclude that there are three major struggles for power of a political and violent sort. What’s striking is how little relevant the United States is. It is a superpower, and it is militarily occupying the country, but it appears most frequently to be in the position of going to the parties and saying, “Hey, guys, cut it out. Make nice. Please.” It’s odd that it should be so powerless in some ways, but let me explain. Then, there’s a war for Baghdad. This is the one that Americans tend to know about because the U.S. troops are in Baghdad, and so it’s being fought all around our guys, and we are drawn into it from time to time. The American public, when it thinks about this war, mainly thinks about attacks on U.S. troops, which are part of that war because the U.S. troops were seen by the Sunni Arabs as adjuncts to the Shiite paramilitaries, and they have really functioned that way. Most American observers of Iraq wouldn’t say that the U.S. is an enabler of the Mahdi Army and the Badr Corps paramilitaries of these Shiite fundamentalist parties, but you could make the case that, functionally speaking, that’s how it’s worked out. The U.S. has mainly taken on the remnants of the Ba’ath party, the Salafi jihadis, and other Sunni groups, and has tried to disarm them, tried to kill them, and has opened a space for the Shiite paramilitaries to claim territory and engage in ethnic cleansing and gain territory and power. So that battle between the Sunni Arabs and the Shiite Arabs is going on in Baghdad, is going on in the hinterlands of Baghdad, up to the northeast to Diyala Province, and then south to Babil and so forth. And finally, as if all that weren’t enough, there is a war in the north for control of Kirkuk, which used to be called by Saddam “Ta’mim Province”. Kirkuk Province has the city of Kirkuk in it and very productive oil fields, in the old days at least. Kirkuk is not part of the Kurdistan Regional Authority, which was created by melding three northern provinces together into a super province; however, the Kurdistan Regional Authority wishes to annex Kirkuk to the authority. Regional governments are super-provinces or provincial confederations. Try to imagine what happened—Iraq had 18 provinces in the old days, but it now has 15 provinces and one regional authority. It would be as though Texas, Oklahoma, and Louisiana got together, erased their state borders, elected a joint parliament and a prime minister, and then told the Federal leaders in Washington that if they would like to communicate with any of those states, they need to go through the regional prime minister, and by the way, we’re not sending any more money to Washington. And don’t even think about keeping federal troops on our soil. So, this is what the Kurds have done. They’ve erased the provincial boundaries that created one Kurdistan government that had -- it has its own military. They’re giving out visas independent of Baghdad. They’re inviting companies in to explore for oil independent of Baghdad. They’re the Taiwan of the Middle East. They’re an independent country. They just don’t say that they are because it would cause a war.
- Topic:
- Civil War, Religion, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Destabilization
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
125. A Face of Islam: Muhammad-Sodiq Muhammad-Yusuf
- Author:
- Martha Brill Olcott
- Publication Date:
- 04-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Muhammad-Sodiq Muhammad-Yusuf (also known as Mamamsodiq Mamayusupov), the former mufti of the Muslim Spiritual Administration of Central Asia, Uzbekistan's first mufti after independence, and the most prominent theologian in the country, is a figure worthy of attention by anyone interested in the political role that Islam might play in Uzbekistan.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, International Relations, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia, Middle East, and Uzbekistan
126. Pushing Toward Party Politics: Kuwait's Islamic Constitutional Movement
- Author:
- Nathan J. Brown
- Publication Date:
- 02-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Kuwait's Islamic Constitutional Movement (ICM), founded in 1991, is a relatively new political actor in Kuwait. Yet by the standards of regional Islamist movements, it is one of the most experienced in parliamentary and electoral politics. The ICM can claim some real electoral and programmatic successes, but any move beyond marginal or incremental achievements rests largely on its ability to build on the success of an ad hoc and diverse coalition of Islamist, liberal, and populist political forces. In short, if the ICM navigates difficult waters, it may be able to achieve many of its goals while demonstrating the broader potential of an Islamist electoral movement as part of a coalition pressing for liberalizing political reform. Kuwaiti political history suggests strong reasons for skepticism-the opposition has never been able to maintain a united front for long, and the Kuwaiti government has tools at its disposal to disperse, placate, and even exclude dissenters. But the opportunities beckoning the movement and other opposition political forces are stronger than they have ever been.
- Topic:
- Development, Politics, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Kuwait
127. Turkey's 'Smart' Islamist Challenge
- Author:
- Soner Cagaptay and Yuksel Sezgin
- Publication Date:
- 05-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On May 20, thousands of secular Turks demonstrated in the Black Sea port city of Samsun against the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP), which has an Islamist pedigree. It was the most recent display of protest in a power struggle between the AKP and its opponents over determining a replacement for outgoing president Ahmet Necdet Sezer. In addition to the protestors and Sezer, the courts and the Turkish military have weighed in against the AKP. Far from backing down, as Turkey's Islamists would have done in the past, the AKP has stepped up the pressure by introducing a constitutional amendment package that calls for direct presidential elections to replace the current system of voting in parliament. President Sezer could decide the fate of this package, but the political crisis will continue.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Politics, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
128. Shutting Hizballah's 'Construction Jihad'
- Author:
- Matthew Levitt
- Publication Date:
- 02-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On February 20, the U.S. Department of the Treasury designated Jihad al-Bina, Hizballah's construction company in Lebanon, effectively shutting the terrorist group's firm out of the international financial system. While the designation will not take effect at the United Nations -- sanctions under UN Security Council Resolution 1267 only target elements associated with al-Qaeda or the Taliban, to the exclusion of any other terrorist groups -- international lenders and donors, including financial institutions, NGOs, and governments, are unlikely to want to assume the reputational risk of working to rebuild Lebanon in partnership with Hizballah instead of the Lebanese government. Moreover -- and contrary to conventional wisdom -- the designation presents a rare public diplomacy opportunity in the battle of ideas in the war on terror.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Peace Studies, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Taliban, and Lebanon
129. The Mecca Accord (Part II): Implications for Arabs, Israel, and U.S. Policy
- Author:
- Robert Satloff
- Publication Date:
- 02-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The Fatah-Hamas unity agreement reached in Mecca last week has powerful implications for all regional players. The most serious challenge it poses is to U.S. diplomacy.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Mecca
130. Hamas vs. Fatah: Is Confrontation Inevitable?
- Author:
- Mohammad Yaghi, Dennis Ross, and Ghaith al-Omari
- Publication Date:
- 01-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- There are three possibilities for the future of the troubled Hamas-Fatah relationship. The first is the default option, involving perpetual tension with progressively worsening violence—and no decisive victor. Each side mistakenly believes that it can swiftly defeat the other. Hamas believes it can win through continued rearmament and resistance, and that its political message resonates with its constituency. Its own efforts—along with Hizballah's perceived victory in summer 2006—have lent Hamas confidence in its current footing. For its part, Fatah believes it has historical claim to both power and representation, and that its rule of the Palestinian Authority (PA), the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), and the governmental security apparatus are ingredients of a decisive victory, regardless of the continuing arms race.
- Topic:
- Government, Peace Studies, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
131. The Battle for Kirkuk: How to Prevent a New Front in Iraq
- Author:
- Soner Cagaptay and Daniel Fink
- Publication Date:
- 01-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On January 14, in a rare show of unity, Sunni and Shiite Arab, Turkmen, and Christian Iraqis gathered at a conference in Ankara to denounce Kurdish plans to incorporate Kirkuk, the capital of Iraqs at-Tamim province, into the Kurdish region. This comes after recent violence in Kirkuk, including a December 26 roadside bomb that killed three and wounded six. Between December 2005 and July 2006, the number of reported violent incidents in Kirkuk increased by 76 percent, ending the citys previous status as a relatively safe area. With tensions in Kirkuk rising, how can violence be countered?
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Religion, and War
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
132. PolicyWatch #1305: The PKK Redux: Implications of a Growing Threat
- Author:
- Soner Cagaptay
- Publication Date:
- 11-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On November 5, Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and deputy chief of military staff Gen. Ergin Saygun visited President Bush in Washington to discuss the growing threat posed by the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). The composition of the Turkish delegation was symbolically important and demonstrates a new political stability based on the working relationship between the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the Turkish military. Yet the newfound weight of the PKK issue may prove problematic for the United States -- and, in the long term, for Turkey as well.
- Topic:
- Government, Islam, Politics, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
133. Political Islam and Europe – Views from the Arab Mediterranean states and Turkey
- Author:
- Robert Springborg
- Publication Date:
- 04-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- The social, political and economic power of moderate Middle East and North African Islamist movements has been growing for a generation or so. The question of how to deal with Islamists who reject violence, embrace democracy and outperform their competitors at the polls has therefore become a central concern not only of incumbent Middle East elites, but also of interested foreign actors such as the EU and US. Robert Springborg sees the need for the EU to clarify its policies towards the MENA region and Muslim democrats within it. The present lack of EU policies on engaging with moderate Islamists leads them to be at best curious about the EU and at worse to be suspicious of it. Engagement might itself help to contribute to policy formation in this important area, and serve as a vehicle to disseminate information about relevant EU policies.
- Topic:
- Politics and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Arabia, Arab Countries, and North Africa
134. Turkey's Future: EU Member or "Islamist Rogue State"?
- Author:
- Dietrich Jung
- Publication Date:
- 01-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- The EU's decision to grant Turkey the status of a candidate for full-membership triggered an intense and polarized debate about the principle eligibility of Turkey as an EU member-state. In this debate, religion has become an openly discussed issue with regard to the European dimension of Turkey. In posing three interrelated questions on Turkey's EU reform process, this brief argues that the country has engaged in a genuine reform process toward a pluralist democracy in whose course the relationship between religion and state in the country has been transformed. In order to support this process further, however, the Europeans need to avoid historical prejudices and they have to acknowledge the strong European dimension of this predominantly Muslim country.
- Topic:
- Religion and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
135. Religion, Society and Politics in Changing Turkey
- Author:
- Ali Carkoglu and Binnaz Toprak
- Publication Date:
- 08-2007
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
- Abstract:
- During the period from 1999 to 2004, Turkey’s path toward European Union accession promoted important advances in the consolidation of democracy and respect for human rights. Turkey’s long-standing democratization problems -- such as the treatment of minorities, the lack of democratic oversight of the security sector, and the failure to resolve the Kurdish question, the Armenian question and the headscarf issue -- have come to surface and been widely discussed. Yet pro-status quo groups, including political parties, some “civil society” organizations, and governmental institutions have harshly reacted to the public discussion of these issues. Since 2004, the momentum of the democratization process has slowed down, and 2007 brought to the Turkish agenda a critical debate over presidential elections. According to the prostatus quo, elitist groups the chair of the presidency is representation of the modern Turkish republic, and the government party’s candidate will not have the capability of representing the Turkish Republic with a first lady with headscarf. Since May 2007, the discussions over the presidential relations and the candidacy of a deputy from the Justice and Development Party (AKP) have dominated the political agenda in Turkey. While the tension is represented as between religious people and secularism, in fact, this tension is more accurately one between the possibility of departing from the status quo, through democratization efforts, and thus confronting the deep-rooted democratization problems of Turkey. While all the discussions seem to be on the axis of religiosity and secularism, during the general election process, most of the opposition parties claimed that Turkey was under threat from internal and external enemies – whether Shari’a, Kurds, Armenians trying to divide and weaken it, or foreign powers like the EU and USA seeking Turkey’s economic subordination – and that the AKP was to blame. The opposition parties also blamed the AKP for the presidential election crisis, due to the fact that the AKP had not sought a consensus candidate. At this moment, the results of the elections show that approximately one-half of the country supports the AKP government and the majority of the people are opposed to any military intervention in the country’s democratic life. Although the prospective presidency of Mr. Gül should be evaluated through the lens of citizenship and even though Mr. Gül meets the requirements for being President, his candidacy has still been discussed in terms of the capacity of a man whose wife wears a headscarf -- which is seen as a symbol of the so-called “threat to the secular regime” -- to represent Turkey. Because the aforementioned agenda is very related to the problematic nature of Religion-State-Society Relations in Turkey, TESEV’s Democratization Program has been working on the issue since 1999. The project on Religion-StateSociety relations, through research, publication, outreach, and advocacy, aims to contribute to the understanding of the changing dynamics between religion, state, and society in today’s world and specifically in the Turkish context. In addition, the project aspires to create dialogue and to increase mutual understanding between groups in Turkish society who have increasingly become polarized around the issues of secularism and religiosity. Religion, Society and Politics in a Changing Turkey, by Ali Çarkoğlu and Binnaz Toprak, is an output of a survey of 1492 votingage individuals that was carried out in rural and urban areas between May 6th and June 11th 2006. The survey report observes and compares the changing nature of Turkish people’s attitudes towards issues such as religion, democracy, terrorism and minorities. The Turkish-language edition of the study was received with high interest by the public and the media in November 2006. The study provoked an engaging debate as it was published during the controversy around the fact that presidential candidate Abdullah Gül’s wife wears a headscarf. TESEV hopes that the English version of the report will contribute to the debates over Turkey’s practice of Islam, people’s preferences to identify themselves, understanding of democracy and multi-culturalism in Turkey, and the political and sociological stance towards the headscarf controversy.
- Topic:
- Politics, Religion, State, and Society
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
136. Islamist Movements in the Arab World and the 2006 Lebanon War
- Author:
- Amr Hamzawy and Dina Bishara
- Publication Date:
- 11-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The 2006 Lebanon war has had a profound effect on Islamist movements that have chosen to compete as legal parties in the political systems of their countries, testing their relationship with the ruling regimes as well as their respect for pluralism and tolerance.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Islam, Religion, and War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, Arab Countries, and Lebanon
137. Jordan and Its Islamic Movement: The Limits of Inclusion?
- Author:
- Nathan J. Brown
- Publication Date:
- 11-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Recent election results in several Arab countries have transformed formerly theoretical questions into pressing policy concerns: Can Islamist political parties operate within the boundaries of a democratic system? Will participation breed moderation? Strong showings by Hizbollah in Lebanon and by the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt have made these questions seem less speculative. And the victory of Hamas in the first election it contested has made the questions impossible to avoid.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, Islam, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, Jordan, and Mumbai
138. Islamist Movements and the Democratic Process in the Arab World: Exploring Gray Zones
- Author:
- Nathan J. Brown, Amr Hamzawy, and Marina S. Ottaway
- Publication Date:
- 03-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- In today's Arab world, Islamists have assumed the role once played by national liberation movements and leftist parties. They are the mass movements of the twenty-first century. They are well embedded in the social fabric, understand the importance of good organization, and are thus able to mobilize considerable constituencies. Their ideology prescribes a simple solution to the persistent crises of contemporary Arab societies—a return to the fundamentals, or true spirit, of Islam. Indeed, “Islam is the solution” has been the longtime slogan of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood. Like all successful movements, Islamists have been able to distill a long, complex philosophical tradition into simple slogans that have quickly supplanted the Pan-Arabism and socialism that dominated the region until the 1970s. As a result, in most countries Islamists represent the only viable opposition forces to existing undemocratic regimes.
- Topic:
- Government, Human Rights, Islam, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, and Arab Countries
139. Pakistan: The Resurgence of Baluch Natonalism
- Author:
- Frédéric Grare
- Publication Date:
- 01-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Thirty years after a bloody conflict that official sources estimate caused more than five thousand deaths among the rebels and almost three thousand among the Pakistan Army, Baluchistan seems to be heading toward another armed insurrection. During the summer of 2004, there were numerous attacks against the army and the paramilitary forces as well as repeated sabotage of oil pipelines. Since the rape of a female doctor by a group of soldiers on January 2, 2005, in the hospital in Sui, the principal gas-producing center in Baluchistan, assaults have multiplied, culminating in a pitched battle between the Frontier Corps, a paramilitary unit, and the local Bugtis, one of the largest Baluch tribes. According to the Pakistani daily, The Nation, approximately 1,568 “terrorist” attacks occurred through April 3, 2005. These attacks have not been confined only to tribal areas but have targeted Pakistani armed forces and Chinese nationals working on major regional projects all over the province.
- Topic:
- Nationalism, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, China, and Middle East
140. The Next Iraqi War? Sectarianism and Civil Conflict
- Publication Date:
- 02-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The bomb attack on a sacred Shiite shrine in Samarra on 22 February 2006 and subsequent reprisals against Sunni mosques and killings of Sunni Arabs is only the latest and bloodiest indication that Iraq is teetering on the threshold of wholesale disaster. Over the past year, social and political tensions evident since the removal of the Baathist regime have turned into deep rifts. Iraq's mosaic of communities has begun to fragment along ethnic, confessional and tribal lines, bringing in stability and violence to many areas, especially those with mixed populations. The most urgent of these incipient conflicts is a Sunni-Shiite schism that threatens to tear the country apart. Its most visible manifestation is a dirty war being fought between a small group of insurgents bent on fomenting sectarian strife by killing Shiites and certain government commando units carrying out reprisals against the Sunni Arab community in whose midst the insurgency continues to thrive. Iraqi political actors and the international community must act urgently to prevent a low-intensity conflict from escalating into an all-out civil war that could lead to Iraq's disintegration and destabilise the entire region.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia
141. Chaplains as Liaisons with Religious Leaders: Lessons from Iraq and Afghanistan
- Author:
- George Adams
- Publication Date:
- 03-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- In Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as in countless other hotspots around the world, religion has been a major factor in matters of war and peace. Since religion often plays a significant role in conflicts, it also needs to be one of the factors addressed in mediating conflicts. Yet, because the United States separates religion from political matters to a greater degree than many other areas of the world, Americans frequently have difficulty understanding the crucial role religion can play in conflict transformation.
- Topic:
- Peace Studies and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Asia
142. "Trust Allah, Not Nasrallah": The Hizballah Crisis Reshapes Lebanese Politics
- Author:
- Robert Rabil
- Publication Date:
- 08-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- With the ongoing clashes between Israel and Hizballah raging without respite and Lebanon sustaining significant human and material losses, the sociopolitical scene in Beirut is bursting with both centrifugal and centripetal forces. While these forces threaten the country with implosion, they are sparking a national debate on Lebanese national identity that may prevent Lebanon from disintegrating as a sovereign state. While many Western observers see the civilian deaths in Qana as galvanizing Lebanese support for Hizballah, national solidarity against Israeli attacks should not be mistaken for a widespread embrace of Hizballah.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Religion, and War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon
143. One Year after the Cedar Revolution: The Potential for Sunni-Shiite Conflict in Lebanon
- Author:
- David Schenker
- Publication Date:
- 06-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Acting Lebanese interior minister Ahmad Fatfat arrived in Washington June 20 for his first official visit in his new capacity. The U.S. trip comes one month after a radical Sunni Islamist organization was legalized in Lebanon, and just weeks after thousands of Shiite Hizballah supporters rioted in Beirut after the broadcast on LBC television of a comedy skit satirizing Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrallah. These developments highlight growing tensions between Sunnis and Shiites in Lebanon. Unchecked, this dynamic could lead to a resumption of the type of conflict that has long plagued Lebanon and threaten the gains of the Cedar Revolution.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Development, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Washington, Middle East, and Lebanon
144. Rising Tensions Between Turkey's AKP and the Courts
- Author:
- Soner Cagaptay
- Publication Date:
- 05-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On May 17, a gunman chanting Islamist slogans attacked the Turkish Council of State (the Danistay, or high court for administrative affairs) in Ankara. The gunman killed one judge and wounded four others who were sitting in the Council's second chamber, which has recently upheld Turkey's ban on “turbans” in schools. In accordance with the European and Turkish notion of secularism (laïcité in French) as freedom from religious symbols in the public sphere, Turkey bans public officials and school students wearing turbans—a specific style of women's headcover that emerged in the mid 1980s and that the courts consider an Islamist political symbol. (Turbans are distinct from traditional headscarves, which are not banned.) Photographs of the judges had earlier been published in Islamist newspapers with headlines targeting them.
- Topic:
- Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, and Middle East
145. Hamas Weapons in Jordan: Implications for Islamists on the East Bank
- Author:
- David Schenker
- Publication Date:
- 05-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On April 18, the Jordanian government announced it had discovered a cache of weapons -- including rockets, C-4 explosives, and small arms -- in a northern Jordanian town. Jordanian authorities said the weapons belonged to Hamas and had entered Jordan from Syria. Subsequently, Jordan arrested ten Hamas militants and cancelled a scheduled visit by Palestinian Authority (PA) foreign minister Mahmoud al-Zahar, a Hamas leader. While the discovery of these weapons underscores Hamas's continuing efforts to prepare for terrorist acts even while it proclaims a tahdiya (period of calm), it also has important implications for internal Jordanian politics and the rising influence of Jordan's own Islamist movement.
- Topic:
- Government, Religion, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, Syria, and Jordan
146. A Tale of Two Countries: Defining Post-Syria Lebanon
- Author:
- Michael Young
- Publication Date:
- 01-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- When Shiite ministers recently “suspended” their participation in the Lebanese cabinet, though without resigning, it highlighted an increasingly apparent reality in post-Syria Lebanon: Two powerful camps coexist today. One, led by Hizballah, in alliance with the Amal movement, sits atop a Shiite community generally, though not unanimously, supporting their positions. The other reflects a cross-communal parliamentary majority, the cornerstone of which is the Sunni-led Future Movement of Saad Hariri, son of the murdered former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria
147. How to Judge the Palestinian Elections
- Author:
- Ben Fishman and Mohammed Yaghi
- Publication Date:
- 01-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On Wednesday, January 25, Palestinian voters will elect a new Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) for the first time since the initial PLC was elected ten years ago. The participation of Hamas in the elections marks a turning point in Palestinian politics; the group boycotted the original 1996 ballots as part of its rejection of the Oslo process. Ensuring a smooth transition from elections to the seating of the new PLC will require passing several hurdles, not the least of which is protecting balloting and vote-counting from violent disruptions. Assuming election day proceeds without incident—no small matter given the level of domestic lawlessness over the last several weeks—Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas will then face the challenge of selecting a prime minister to form the next government. What remains unknown is precisely how well Hamas will finish in relation to Abbas' own Fatah party, and whether a tight race will lead Abbas to include Hamas as an active partner in the next Palestinian government—or, indeed, whether a poor Fatah showing might prompt Abbas to resign.
- Topic:
- Development, Politics, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Palestine
148. Lebanon at a Tripwire
- Publication Date:
- 12-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Lebanon has badly lost its balance and is at risk of new collapse, moving ever closer to explosive Sunni-Shiite polarisation with a divided, debilitated Christian community in between. The fragile political and sectarian equilibrium established since the end of its bloody civil war in 1990 was never a panacea and came at heavy cost. It depended on Western and Israeli acquiescence in Syria's tutelage and a domestic system that hindered urgently needed internal reforms, and change was long overdue. But the upsetting of the old equilibrium, due in no small part to a tug-of-war by outsiders over its future, has been chaotic and deeply divisive, pitting one half of the country against the other. Both Lebanon's own politicians and outside players need to recognise the enormous risks of a zero-sum struggle and seek compromises before it is too late.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Lebanon, and Syria
149. Currents and Crosscurrents of Radical Islamism
- Author:
- Julianne Smith, Aidan Kirby, and Daniel Benjamin
- Publication Date:
- 04-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The second phase of the Center for Strategic and International Studies' Transatlantic Dialogue on Terror took place against a backdrop of rapid change. When the first conference in this series took place in Berlin in the spring of 2005, scholars and practitioners were still absorbing the details of the previous year's attacks against the Madrid light rail system, the murder of Dutch artist Theo van Gogh and a host of other attacks and foiled plots. Global radicalism continued to be shaped by the deepening insurgency in Iraq, in which radical Islamists from inside and outside that country play a pivotal role. In the months following the Berlin meeting, the bombing of the London Underground, the attacks in Sharm el-Sheikh and Amman, and a stream of revelations about radical Islamist activity from Europe to the Middle East to South Asia and Australia — where a group of conspirators were arrested for plotting an attack against that country's sole nuclear facility — had also to be taken into account.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Ethnic Conflict, Islam, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Europe, South Asia, Middle East, London, and Australia
150. What Do Islamists Really Want?
- Author:
- Abdeslam Maghraoui
- Publication Date:
- 05-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Throughout the Muslim world, Islamist parties have emerged as major power brokers when allowed to compete in free elections. Yet their positions on many crucial governance issues remain unknown or ambiguous. Most debates on the potential to moderate and integrate Islamists in the democratic process have focused on Islam's compatibility with democracy or on debates over Islamists' normative commitment to democracy separately from the mechanics of achieving political power.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, Government, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
151. DEMOCRACY, DIVERSITY, AND CONFLICT: Religious Zionism and Israeli Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Claudia Baumgart
- Publication Date:
- 12-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Judith Reppy Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies
- Abstract:
- Israel's disengagement from the Gaza strip in 2005 marked a momentous turning point in the conflict between Israel and the Palestinian people. After 37 years of occupation, Israel has pulled out from this densely populated strip of land at the Eastern coast of the Mediterranean Sea, but it still keeps its military control over all access to the Gaza strip via land, sea, and air. The new government of Ehud Olmert is now debating the next step: to retreat from large parts of the West Bank. While presenting the concept of unilateral disengagement as a necessary step towards peace with the Palestinians, Ariel Sharon and his successor Ehud Olmert made it very clear that, on the other hand, Israel intends to keep and even expand the major Jewish settlements in the West Bank. Olmert's convergence plan reflects these intentions by openly announcing that the settlement blocs would remain a part of the State of Israel forever. But for a certain portion of the Israeli population, this is not enough. In the run-up to the Gaza disengagement, Israel was flooded with Orange – the colour that the disengagement opponents chose to mark their fierce protest against the evacuation of Jewish settlements. Settlers in orange T-Shirts gathered in mass demonstrations, waved Israeli flags with orange ribbons, blocked main roads in the midst of rush hour, quarrelled with security forces and tried to convince soldiers to refuse orders during evacuation. A small minority even threatened to violently resist the evacuation of their homes.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Ethnic Conflict, Post Colonialism, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
152. The Challenge for Hamas - Establishing Transparency and Accountability
- Author:
- Ghazi Ahmad Hamad
- Publication Date:
- 04-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
- Abstract:
- Prior to the Palestinian elections of 25 January 2006, Hamas had not been expecting at all that it would suddenly find itself in a position to govern. Until the last moment, the movement had anticipated to gain only some 25 seats. It had not hoped for more, but simply to become a strong opposition force in the new PLC (Palestinian Legislative Council). As such, it wanted to push political and administrative reforms.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Palestine
153. Sistani, the United States and Politics in Iraq: From Quietism to Machiavellianism?
- Author:
- Reidar Visser
- Publication Date:
- 04-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- This paper discusses the two prevailing interpretations of the political attitudes of the Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the leading Shiite cleric in Iraq today. It is argued that neither the traditional "quietist" paradigm nor more recent Machiavellian interpretations can satisfactorily explain Sistani's actions. An alternative interpretation is offered which highlights Sistani's historical oscillation between passive and activist positions. It is suggested that, after an activist intermezzo from June 2003 to December 2004, Sistani has reverted to a more secluded role, again showing an increasing reluctance to fulfil the wishes of his many wooers in Iraqi politics, and limiting his interference to matters directly connected with the Shiite faith and its institutions. It is concluded that Sistani's professional interests as a cleric – rather than any constant desire on his part to control and manipulate domestic politics – may be the key to understanding any future intervention in the political process in Iraq. Scepticism is also expressed toward the notion of Sistani as a guarantor for a "moderate" or "secular" Iraqi political system that would supposedly be fundamentally different from that of Iran – an idea that has featured prominently in policy-making circles in the United States and in other Western countries currently involved in Iraq.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Politics, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, and Middle East
154. The Shiite Question in Saudi Arabia
- Publication Date:
- 09-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- From Saudi Arabia's establishment in 1932, its minority Shiite population has been subject to discrimination and sectarian incitement. Beginning in the early 1990s, with then Crown Prince Abdullah's active support, the government took steps to improve inter-sectarian relations. But the measures were modest, and tensions are rising. The war in Iraq has had a notable effect, strengthening Shiite aspirations and Sunni suspicions and generally deepening confessional divisions throughout the region. King Abdullah needs to act resolutely to improve the lot of the two-million strong Shiite community and rein in domestic expressions of anti-Shiite hostility.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Government, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Saudi Arabia
155. Zarqawi's 'Total War' on Iraqi Shiites Exposes a Divide among Sunni Jihadists
- Author:
- Emily Hunt
- Publication Date:
- 11-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On November 2, Iraq's Defense Ministry appealed to junior officers from Saddam Hussein's disbanded army to return to service. The decision to include these soldiers is part of an ongoing strategy to minimize support for terrorism by reintegrating Sunnis into the political fabric of the new Iraq. This latest effort comes as Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's group steps up targeting of Shiite civilians in an effort to spark retaliatory attacks against Sunnis. But as Zarqawi's attacks on Shiites exact growing toll among civilians, his tactics may be causing a divide within the ranks of the resistance.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
156. Supreme Leader Khamenei's Responsibility for Iran's Present Situation
- Author:
- Mohsen Sazegara
- Publication Date:
- 11-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Mohsen Sazegara, recently a visiting fellow at The Washington Institute and now at Yale University, posted on several Persian-language websites (including gooya.com) a long open letter to Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Hossein Khamenei. Below are translated extracts from that letter.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Human Rights, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Washington, and Middle East
157. Turkey and Europe's Problem with Radical Islam
- Author:
- Soner Cagaptay, Düden Yegenoglu, and Ekim Alptekin
- Publication Date:
- 11-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Turkey opened accession talks with the European Union (EU) on October 3. In the aftermath of the March 2004 Madrid bombings, the November 2004 murder of film director Theo van Gogh in Amsterdam, and the July 2005 London bombings, all committed by radical Islamists, some people in Europe wonder whether Islam is compatible with European values and, accordingly, whether letting the predominantly Muslim Turkey join the EU is a good idea. Will Turkey's EU accession compound Europe's problem with radical Islam, or is Turkey's version of Islam a panacea for Europe's Islamist problem?
- Topic:
- International Relations and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, and Middle East
158. The Sunni Arab Insurgency: A Spent or Rising Force?
- Author:
- Michael Eisenstadt
- Publication Date:
- 08-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Warnings by Sunni politicians of even greater violence if Sunni Arab concerns are not addressed in the draft Iraqi constitution raise the question: could the insurgency get worse? The answer can be found by examining the insurgency's demographic dimension.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Politics, Religion, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
159. Hamas's Tactics: Lessons from Recent Attacks
- Author:
- Jamie Chosak and Julie Sawyer
- Publication Date:
- 10-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On September 22, 2005, Abbas al-Sayyid was convicted of masterminding two Hamas suicide bombings: the March 27, 2002, attack at the Park Hotel in Netanya and the May 18, 2001, shopping mall bombing that killed five and injured one hundred. The Park Hotel bombing, considered the terror group's most devastating attack since the outbreak of the second intifada, had implications extending far beyond the murder of thirty innocent civilians. The attack prompted Israel to launch Operation Defensive Shield, the reoccupation of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. Additionally, the bombing highlighted Hamas's program of radicalization and recruitment in Palestinian universities and the group's experimentation with chemical and biological agents.
- Topic:
- Religion, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
160. A Hamas Headquarters in Saudi Arabia?
- Author:
- Matthew Levitt
- Publication Date:
- 09-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Israeli authorities on September 27 announced the arrest of an Israeli-Arab Hamas activist who played central militant, political, and financing roles for the group in coordination with what Israeli authorities described as a “Hamas command in Saudi Arabia.” The arrest is just the latest evidence that support for Hamas in particular and Islamic extremism in general continues to emanate from within the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
- Topic:
- Religion and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia
161. Toward a Quartet Position on Hamas: European Rules on Banning Political Parties
- Author:
- David Makovsky and Elizabeth Young
- Publication Date:
- 09-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- A key issue in the runup to January's Palestinian parliamentary elections is whether the radical Islamist party Hamas will be allowed to participate and under what conditions. Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon and foreign minister Silvan Shalom have insisted that the group disarm, disavow terror, and end its call for Israel's destruction before it is permitted to run in elections. Palestinian Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas has favored an unconditional acceptance of Hamas's electoral participation, believing that it could coopt Hamas within the Palestinian political fold. However, he said in a Washington Post interview published on September 11, 2005, "A political party plus a militia is unacceptable," but he did not elaborate specific plans that would prevent Hamas from participating in elections as both party and militia.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
162. Post-Gaza Crises for Religious Zionism in Israel
- Author:
- David Makovsky
- Publication Date:
- 09-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Israeli disengagement from Gaza and the northern West Bank settlements has left in its wake three important crises for the religious Zionist movement that spearheaded settlements in Israel. These crises involve the settlers' future relationships with the Israeli public, the Israeli state, and the political secular right. For settlers, these three relationships are now colored by a sense of betrayal, raising the question of whether disengagement will radicalize the ideological settlers.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Gaza
163. Gaza Disengagement: The U.S. Role in Ensuring Success on the Ground
- Author:
- Dennis Ross
- Publication Date:
- 07-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- I have spent the past month in Jerusalem, meeting with Israelis and Palestinians here, in Ramallah, and in Gaza City. In my years of dealing with both sides, I cannot recall a time when emotion in general, and frustration in particular, have so clearly shaped their outlook. Given the death of Yasser Arafat, the emergence of Mahmoud Abbas, and Ariel Sharon's decision to disengage from Gaza, this should be a time of hope and opportunity. Instead, there is less a sense of possibility than of foreboding. It may not yet be too late to use the withdrawal as a platform on which to build a different future. Yet, much of what could have been done to prepare the ground for disengagement has not been done—and that may explain the unease that pervades both sides.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
164. The Future of the Jewish Settler Movement, Post-Disengagement
- Author:
- Aviezer Ravitsky
- Publication Date:
- 06-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On June 24, 2005, Aviezer Ravitsky, a professor at Hebrew University of Jerusalem and an expert on religious Zionism, addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks. The impending Israeli disengagement from the Gaza Strip and four settlements in the northern West Bank threatens the ideological foundations of many settlers. This is particularly true for religious settlers, most of whom view Israeli habitation of the West Bank as the fulfillment of a biblical mandate initiated by the Hebrew patriarchs. The fact that Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, a prime architect of the settlement movement during his tenure as housing minister in the late 1970s, unilaterally proposed the disengagement epitomizes what many settlers see as their abandonment by the political establishment. They fear that Israel will eventually withdraw from most, if not all, of the West Bank. That prospect threatens to undermine the cause of the national-religious camp in Israel, which has championed the settlement movement above all else since Israel assumed control over the territories in 1967.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Politics, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Gaza
165. Deteriorating Security May Short-Circuit Israeli-Palestinian Opportunities
- Author:
- Michael Herzog
- Publication Date:
- 06-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The June 21 meeting between Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon and Palestinian Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas highlighted the widening expectations gap between the two parties. Less than two months before Israel commences its pullout from the Gaza Strip and parts of the northern West Bank, the security situation is worsening, while the PA appears largely unprepared to assume effective security control over these areas. Without an urgent predisengagement "crash program" to improve security, the opportunity afforded by Yasser Arafat's departure from the scene and Israel's departure from Gaza will be lost.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
166. Gaza Settler Relocation: New Progress, Ongoing Complications
- Author:
- Minda Lee Arrow
- Publication Date:
- 06-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Among the challenges facing the Israeli government in the weeks before the Gaza disengagement commences are relocating evacuated settlers and determining the future of settlement assets. This Peace Watch will examine the former issue; a future Peace Watch will address the latter.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Gaza, and Arab Countries
167. Deciphering the Bush-Abbas Press Conference
- Author:
- Robert Satloff
- Publication Date:
- 05-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- President George W. Bush welcomed Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas to the White House Thursday with an unprecedented shower of diplomatic, political, and financial support. Most media attention has focused on two high-profile signs of U.S. backing of Abbas -- Bush's bold characterization of his guest as a "man of courage" and the dispatch of $50 million in direct assistance to the PA. As constructive as these messages were in bolstering the new Palestinian leader, little attention has been given to several other surprising messages Bush delivered -- both by omission and commission -- that could rebound against the administration's twin objectives of strengthening Palestinian democracy and advancing the vision of "two states living side by side in peace and security."
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Palestine, and Arab Countries
168. Debating the Palestinian Election Law
- Author:
- Mohammad Yaghi
- Publication Date:
- 05-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On May 18, the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) is scheduled to debate the law governing the legislative elections scheduled for July 17, the first such elections since the inaugural polls of 1996. The issues under contention underscore the larger divisions in Palestinian politics, particularly the dominant Fatah PartyÕs internal factionalism and its fear of an increasingly popular Hamas.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, and Arab Countries
169. From Crawford to Gaza: Countdown to Disengagement
- Author:
- Michael Herzog and Dennis Rose
- Publication Date:
- 04-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On April 7, 2005, Dennis Ross, Michael Herzog, and David Makovsky addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Ambassador Ross is the Institute's counselor and Ziegler distinguished fellow, former U.S. Middle East peace envoy, and author of The Missing Peace: The Inside Story of the Fight for Middle East Peace (Farrar, Straus, and Giroux, 2004). Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Brig.-Gen. Herzog, a visiting military fellow at the Institute, was formerly the senior military aide to the defense minister and a peace negotiator. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks; David Makovsky's remarks served as the basis for PeaceWatch no. 498.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Gaza, and Arab Countries
170. Israel in the Territories: From Disengagement to Settlements
- Author:
- Isaac Herzog
- Publication Date:
- 04-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On April 4, 2005, Isaac Herzog addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Mr. Herzog was recently named Israel's minister of housing and construction when Prime Minister Ariel Sharon broadened his government to include the Labor Party. Heading a ministry that was key in backing past settlement activity, Mr. Herzog has called for a thorough ministerial review of Israel's settlement policy. A Labor member of the Knesset since 2001, Mr. Herzog previously served as cabinet secretary to Prime Minister Ehud Barak. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
171. Assessing the Upcoming Bush-Sharon Summit: Clarifying Ambiguity
- Author:
- David Makovsky
- Publication Date:
- 04-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On April 11, 2005, President George W. Bush will host Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon at his ranch in Crawford, Texas. The meeting comes at a key juncture, given Israel's planned disengagement from Gaza and the northern West Bank. Mr. Makovsky, who recently returned from a ten-day trip to Israel, the West Bank, Egypt, and Jordan, discussed the upcoming summit at The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum on April 7. This PeaceWatch is based on his remarks.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Gaza, Egypt, and Czech Republic
172. Preventing Iran and Hizballah from Filling the Void in Lebanon
- Author:
- Michael Herzog
- Publication Date:
- 03-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The March 8 mass rally in Beirut, organized by Hizballah to counter the popular Lebanese opposition movement, serves as a reminder that establishing genuine freedom and democracy in Lebanon will require more than a Syrian withdrawal. Whereas the opposition, backed by strong international and regional sentiment, focuses on rejecting Syria's occupation, Hizballah focuses on rejecting international interference in Lebanese affairs. Yet, if Iran and Hizballah are permitted to fill the void created by a Syrian departure, Lebanon will continue to be subjected to such foreign interference. Such a development would also increase the potential for escalation on the Lebanese-Israeli front, with possible regional spillover. Accordingly, while encouraging the ongoing historic events in Lebanon and pushing for an end to Syrian domination, the international community should not neglect two other key implications of UN Security Council Resolution 1559: ending the Iranian presence and disarming Hizballah.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, Middle East, Arab Countries, Lebanon, and Syria
173. Palestinian Authority Minister of Economy Tied to Hamas?
- Author:
- Matthew Levitt
- Publication Date:
- 03-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On February 24, 2005, the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) approved the new cabinet proposed by Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei. Often described as technocratic and progressive, the cabinet is widely seen as fitting the Bush administration's requirement of being "untainted by terror." Indeed, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice highlighted the new cabinet as one of the "important steps" the Palestinian Authority (PA) had taken toward reform and described this week's London conference, held in support of the PA, as an opportunity to express "international support for their extremely important reform movement." Yet, one cabinet appointment gives reason for concern: the new minister of economy, Mazen Sunuqrut, has close, longstanding ties to Hamas.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
174. Israel's Newly Approved Security Fence Route: Geography and Demography
- Author:
- David Makovsky and Anna Hartman
- Publication Date:
- 03-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Last week, the Israeli cabinet approved modified routing of the security fence, the first officially sanctioned changes since the cabinet approved construction in October 2003. The modifications, prompted by an Israeli supreme court decision last summer made to avert Palestinian hardship, are characterized by four major adjustments: (1) revised routing in several areas that will bring the fence closer to the Green Line (pre-1967 boundaries); (2) the elimination of all fence routes that create Palestinian enclaves or "double fences" (areas where Palestinians would have been completely encircled by the security fence); (3) the addition—for the first time on any official Israeli map—of fence around the Maale Adumim settlement bloc; and (4) final authorization of fence routing and construction near the Etzion bloc.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries
175. Supporting the Palestinian Authority: Will the Oil-Rich Arabs Pay Up?
- Author:
- Simon Henderson
- Publication Date:
- 02-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On March 1, British prime minister Tony Blair will host a conference in London dedicated to garnering support for the Palestinian Authority (PA). The summit is intended to help the new Palestinian leadership strengthen PA institutions, with a special focus on facilitating economic development, encouraging donor pledges, and identifying investment opportunities. Israel will not be participating, but Saudi Arabia and several other oil-rich Arab countries will attend. These countries reaped unexpectedly high government revenues in 2004 due to increased oil prices—excluding Iraq, the Arab members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) saw $45 billion in additional revenue compared to 2003. How much of this windfall is offered to bolster the Israeli-Palestinian peace process will be seen, at least in Washington, as a key indicator of the willingness of the Arab world to secure a settlement.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia
176. A New Palestinian Cabinet
- Author:
- Ben Fishman
- Publication Date:
- 02-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On February 24, 2005, the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) approved the new cabinet presented by Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei by a vote of fifty-four to ten, with four abstentions, establishing the first official government appointed after the January election of President Mahmoud Abbas. After a week of political infighting over the makeup of the cabinet, Qurei yielded to pressure from the Fatah bloc and offered a list composed almost exclusively of technocrats with professional expertise in the fields of their respective ministries. Nearly all of Yasser Arafat's political appointees from the old guard were removed. The reformers within Fatah who led the opposition to Qurei compromised as well by agreeing that no sitting member of the council (other than the prime minister and the new deputy prime minister, Nabil Shaath) could be in the cabinet, thereby keeping the most prominent political proponents of reform outside the executive branch.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, and Arab Countries
177. Sustaining an Israeli-Palestinian Ceasefire
- Author:
- Matthew Levitt
- Publication Date:
- 02-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The Israeli-Palestinian ceasefire announced on February 8 in Sharm al-Sheikh created a window of opportunity that will slam shut quickly if terrorists resume attacks against Israel. After four-and-half years of incessant terrorist activity, Israeli tolerance for negotiating peace in the face of ongoing attacks is nil. The entire project, therefore, is premised on the assumption that the ceasefire will hold. But will it? Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) have so far dismissed it, and previously negotiated ceasefires have all failed. Moreover, Iran and Hizballah are more proactively involved in recruiting, training, and financing Palestinian suicide bombers than ever before.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia
178. The Era of Mahmoud Abbas: Prospects for Security, Peace, and Reform
- Author:
- Khalil Shikaki and Michael Herzog
- Publication Date:
- 02-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- If new Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas is to succeed, he must deal with the issue of violence. Over the past year, positive changes have emerged in all areas of Palestinian public opinion except one: the role of violence. In the eyes of the public, violence pays. Three-fourths of Palestinians perceive the disengagement as a victory for violence. To be sure, more than two-thirds of Palestinians believe that Abbas should negotiate with Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon. Yet, the public views Israel's unilateral moves as a threat, not an asset. They see only settlements, closures, checkpoints, and humiliation. These perceptions are responsible for their anger. Abbas must help remove dynamics that encourage the public to believe in the utility of violence; otherwise, the issue will continue to impede his ability to govern effectively.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, Arabia, and Gaza
179. No Grace Period for Newly Elected Abbas
- Author:
- Michael Herzog
- Publication Date:
- 01-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The newly announced ceasefire provides an opportunity for progress in Israeli-Palestinian relations, especially with the newly elected Palestinian leadership and the new Israeli coalition government. The time has come for both Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon and Palestinian Authority chairman Mahmoud Abbas (a.k.a. Abu Mazen) to roll up their sleeves and, with international support, get down to the formidable tasks facing them in the coming months: stabilization of the security situation, Palestinian institution-building, Israeli disengagement from Gaza and the northern West Bank, and Israeli-Palestinian reengagement.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, and Gaza
180. In Mahmoud Abbas\'s Own Words
- Author:
- David Makovsky and Kenneth Stein
- Publication Date:
- 01-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Interim Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas is widely expected to win the presidential elections scheduled for January 9. The media has focused on statements he has made on the campaign trail; below is a survey of his statements on a variety of policy issues over the past several years.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, and Arabia
181. Unmaking Iraq: A Constitutional Process Gone Awry, Middle East Briefing
- Publication Date:
- 09-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Instead of healing the growing divisions between Iraq's three principal communities -- Shiites, Kurds and Sunni Arabs -- a rushed constitutional process has deepened rifts and hardened feelings. Without a strong U.S.-led initiative to assuage Sunni Arab concerns, the constitution is likely to fuel rather than dampen the insurgency, encourage ethnic and sectarian violence, and hasten the country's violent break-up.
- Topic:
- Government, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Kurdistan
182. Draft Constitution Gained, but an Important Opportunity Was Lost
- Author:
- Mona Iman
- Publication Date:
- 10-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- While the outcome of Iraq's October 15 national referendum is uncertain, it is clear that many of Iraq's Sunni Arabs will vote against it. Why are Sunni Arabs opposed to a constitution that appears to give them the same opportunities for self-governance that it provides to Kurds and Shia?
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
183. Autobiography, Politics And Ideology In Sayyid Qutb's Reading Of The Qur'an
- Author:
- Umej Bhatia
- Publication Date:
- 09-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- The Egyptian Islamist ideologue Sayyid Qutb (1906-1966) is a founding figure of modern Sunni militancy. The West knows Sayyid Qutb through the prism of his Milestones, the 1964 manifesto urging a Qur'anic revolution against illegitimate Muslim regimes. However, it was Qutb's commanding Qur'anic interpretation, In the Shade of the Qur'an, which provided the rich lodestone for Milestones. In the Muslim world, moderates and militants alike have found sanctuary In the Shade of the Qur'an, making it a unique work that cannot be ignored. Offered below is a detailed analysis of Qutb's work, focused primarily on juz amma (the last thirtieth) of the Qur'an, which is considered the key entree for Muslims who seek a return to faith. Sensitive yet uncompromising, In the Shade of the Qur'an adroitly rehearses at a personal and political level the combat between a pristine Islam and all other profane systems, with the final objective of establishing a supreme Islamic order.
- Topic:
- Politics and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Egypt
184. Global Jihad, Sectarianism and The Madrassahs in Pakistan
- Author:
- Ali Riaz
- Publication Date:
- 08-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- In the wake of terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, discussions on ties between Islamic religious educational institutions, namely Madrassahs, and radical militant groups have featured prominently in the western media. However, in the frenzied coverage of events, a vital question has been overlooked: why have Islamic educational institutions whose traditions date back thousands of years been transformed so drastically? This paper attempts to seek an answer to this question through an examination of Madrassahs in Pakistan, the second most populous Musim country of the world. Pakistan has seen a phenomenal increase in Islamic religious schools since its independence. The paper argues that while encouragements from successive regimes, an unremitting flow of foreign funds (especially from Saudi Arabia), and the absence of governmental oversigt are the principal factors in the dramatic rise in numbers, the transformation of Madrassahs into schools of militancy and the recruiting ground of 'global Jihadists' is instrinsically linked to the sectarianism prevalent in Pakistan. Sectarianism has been encouraged by various regimes over the last three decades and received substantial support from outside since 1979. The menace of sectarianism has not only made the country ungovernable but also increasingly turned it into a breeding ground for transnational terrorists.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Ethnic Conflict, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan and Middle East
185. Discussions and Recommendations on the Future of the Halki Seminary
- Author:
- Elçin Açar and Behice Özlem Gökakın
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Book
- Institution:
- Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
- Abstract:
- Turkey has long discussed the “issue” of the Greek Patriarchate and the Halki Seminary. Such issues arise more frequently with globalization and Turkey’s EU candidacy. Recommendations on how to solve these issues have very often taken place in the media. Our approach is that in principle, this matter ought not to be recognized as a problem in democratic countries. We emphasize that non-Muslims have the right to educate/ train clergymen in accordance with the Treaty of Lausanne, which established the constituent agreement for Turkey, and also multilateral agreements/treaties signed thereafter which set out concepts such as minority rights, human rights, freedoms and democracies. We aim to provide recommendations based on some of the arguments in favor of a solution.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Religion, Minorities, Democracy, Freedom, and Armenians
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean
186. The Terrorist Threat and the Policy Response in Pakistan
- Author:
- Aarish Ullah Khan
- Publication Date:
- 09-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
- Abstract:
- Terrorists manipulate fear through the use of violence to achieve their objectives. An understanding of what motivates terrorists to employ mindless violence against civilian or non-combatant targets is essential for assessing the phenomenon. The current discussion of 'root causes' often focuses on finding the causes of antagonism towards civilization in the mind of a fanatic terrorist at the individual level. The debate about what motivates a terrorist, however, overlooks the factors that enable a terrorist to conduct terrorist activities. As argued by Walter Laqueur, even if better control can be achieved over the extremist motivation for terrorism, there will still be a few isolated individuals for whom the temptation to employ terrorism—if the opportunity remains—will be hard to resist.
- Topic:
- Security, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan and Middle East
187. Shi'i Separatism in Iraq. Internet Reverie or Real Constitutional Challenge?
- Author:
- Reidar Visser
- Publication Date:
- 08-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- This paper deals with non-conformist ideas among Iraqi Shi'is about the territorial integrity of the modern state of Iraq. Two findings are presented. First, new Internet communications technology has enabled radical Shi'is outside the main clerical, intellectual and political establishments to propagate visions of an independent Shi'i state for the areas south of Baghdad, a scheme that runs counter to a robust and long-standing anti-separatist tradition among wider sections of the Shi'i community. Secondly, by choosing the Internet as their primary modus operandi, the Shi'i separatists also expose their relative weakness vis-à-vis other and less radical trends in Iraqi Shi'i society.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Development, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
188. Chaos in Internationality, A Civilizational Evolution and an Islamic (F)actor: The Case of MÜSİAD in Turkey
- Author:
- Sennur Özdemir
- Publication Date:
- 09-2004
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Institution:
- Uluslararasi Iliskiler
- Abstract:
- A radical crisis in capitalist system has been determined in the first part of the study, in relation with the present chaotic international atmosphere, resulting in a civilisational turn (from the West to the East). The dominant role attributed to the (Islamic) East in this process will be argued in the second section. Lastly, this argument will be discussed around the MÜSİAD in Turkey, as an organisation (with an Islamic reputation) in recently declared 'model country' for the Islamic Middle East. The MÜSİAD has stamped on the agenda of 1990's in many respects with its multi-functional and multilateral positioning determined by the kinds of activities intersecting economic and socio-cultural (indirectly political as well) fields. This organisation is representative in reflecting Turkey's overall transformation in its multidimensionality (from a specific form of state capitalism to a specific form of market capitalism).
- Topic:
- Economics, Islam, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
189. Influencing Iran's Nuclear Activities through Major Power Cooperation
- Author:
- Patrick Clawson
- Publication Date:
- 12-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The Iran nuclear issue will be on the international agenda in the coming months. The often-postponed visit to Tehran by the head of Russia's Atomic Energy Agency (Minatom) Alexander Rumyantsev to sign an agreement on the delivery of nuclear fuel for the Bushehr power plant is now set for January. Meanwhile, early January will see the second round of negotiations between the Europeans and Iran, which is insisting it will end its voluntary suspension of uranium enrichment unless there is significant progress within the three-month timeframe set in the November 15 Paris Accords. That is no easy matter, given that in response to Iran's demands that the negotiations cover a wide range of security and economic issues, the initial European position evidently was to raise the full set of concerns which led to suspension of EU-Iran talks about a Trade Cooperation Agreement, namely, terrorism (such as al-Qaeda), Middle East peace, human rights, and all of Iran's weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, and Arab Countries
190. When Minorities Rule in the Middle East (Part II): Historical Realities
- Author:
- Martin Kramer
- Publication Date:
- 12-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The usual Western assumption is that "minority rule" is illegitimate and an inversion of natural order. This is, however, a very modern and European idea. Minority rule has a long tradition in the Middle East, where it has never had the same stigma that the modern West attaches to it.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, and Arab Countries
191. Challenges Facing the Iraqi Economy
- Author:
- Adil Abd al-Mahdi
- Publication Date:
- 12-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- As Iraqi elections rapidly approach despite an entrenched and violent insurgency, the country's economic challenges are extensive. The government is faced with the momentous task of transforming a war torn, state-dominated economy into a transparent, investment-friendly institution, all during the course of daily political violence.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries
192. When Minorities Rule in the Middle East (Part I): Syria
- Author:
- Ammar Abdulhamid
- Publication Date:
- 12-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- When discussing the topic of "minority rule," it is worth remembering that all dictatorships in fact are a form of minority rule, whether it be ethnic, religious, or bureaucratic. Once a minority establishes control over a nation, a crisis of legitimacy for the government will naturally arise. However, after the initial crisis fades, the main objective of those rulers is to establish representative coalitions that function under their control and rules. The norm is that nearly everybody is eventually represented within a system of parochial interests. In order to democratize one cannot champion the cause of the majority, but must instead champion the cause of civic education and citizenship -- otherwise, the country will fall into the trap of sectarian politics.
- Topic:
- Security, Politics, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arab Countries, and Syria
193. The Assault on the Iraqi Police
- Author:
- Jeffrey White, Todd Orenstein, and Max Sicherman
- Publication Date:
- 12-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Attacks by insurgents on Iraqi police officers and facilities have become a major feature of this stage of the insurgency in Iraq. Hundreds of police personnel have been killed, the police in some areas have been routed by insurgent forces, and police have been penetrated and subverted by the insurgents. Deployed widely and to the neighborhood level in towns and cities, they have become a prime target for the insurgents.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries
194. Analyzing the Thaw in Egyptian-Israeli Relations
- Author:
- Ben Fishman
- Publication Date:
- 12-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The announcement Sunday that Israel would release 170 Palestinian prisoners as a "gesture of goodwill, friendship, and gratitude" to Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak is the latest in a series of events, statements, and diplomatic activity over the past several weeks that has signaled a warming in Egyptian-Israeli relations. While it is too early to tell whether this thaw can be transformed into a fully constructive relationship, after the death of Yasser Arafat both sides are attempting to work together more closely, at least for now.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Arab Countries, and Egypt
195. Banning Hizballah TV in America
- Author:
- Matthew Levitt and Avi Jorisch
- Publication Date:
- 12-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Seeking to prevent terror propaganda and incitement to terror in America, the U.S. government added al-Manar (Arabic for "the beacon"), the official television mouthpiece of Hizballah, or the Lebanese Party of God, to the Terrorism Exclusion List (TEL). By designating the network as a terrorist organization the government will effectively take Hizballah television off the air in the United States by denying entry to its employees and to anyone who supports the network.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, Middle East, and Arab Countries
196. The Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act: Addressing Controversies, Expanding Powers
- Author:
- Michael Jacobson
- Publication Date:
- 12-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Today, President George W. Bush will sign the Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act of 2004 (IRTPA), which represents the most dramatic and fundamental changes to the U.S. intelligence community since 1947, when the CIA was created. While public and media attention has been focused on the establishment of a director of national intelligence and a National Counterterrorism Center, other equally important aspects of IRTPA have received far less attention. Perhaps of greatest significance, IRTPA will improve the FBI and Justice Department's ability to combat international terrorism in a variety of ways.
- Topic:
- Security, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arab Countries
197. Carrots for Iran? Lessons from Libya
- Author:
- Patrick Clawson
- Publication Date:
- 12-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- As European and Iranian officials began negotiations December 14 on whether to make permanent Iran's temporary suspension of uranium enrichment, eight former Western foreign ministers issued a joint statement calling on Washington to support the European efforts by engaging with Iran. There is a growing chorus claiming that Iran will keep its nuclear program suspended only if offered significant incentives by the United States, such as security guarantees, an end to hostility, or at least normal relations.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Libya, and Arab Countries
198. Middle East Affiliate Groups and the Next Generation of Terror
- Author:
- Daniel Benjamin and Jonathan Schanzer
- Publication Date:
- 12-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Groups affiliated with al-Qaeda are a threat not only in the countries in which they operate, but also at the global level. Al-Qaeda's presence throughout the Muslim world comes largely in the form of these groups; attacks in Bali, Yemen, Casablanca, Iraq, and elsewhere have been linked to such affiliates.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, Yemen, and Arab Countries
199. The Eve of Decision: Will Europe Admit Turkey?
- Author:
- Soner Cagaptay, Mark Parris, and Egemen Bagis
- Publication Date:
- 12-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On October 6, 2004, the European Commission released its final report on Turkey's progress toward satisfying the EU's accession rules, known as the Copenhagen Criteria. Although the report stated that "Turkey satisfies the Copenhagen Criteria sufficiently" to enter accession talks, many European counties and the EU itself are still debating whether or not to take that step. This fact serves as proof that Turkish accession is not only a technical process -- defined for other candidate countries as satisfying the Copenhagen Criteria -- but also a political one in which other "non-Copenhagen" criteria and expectations play a role. Hence, even though Ankara has satisfied the Copenhagen Criteria, Turkey's EU membership is not yet a certainty.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Arab Countries
200. Saudi Stability in the Shadow of the U.S. Consulate Attack in Jeddah
- Author:
- Simon Henderson
- Publication Date:
- 12-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The December 6 terrorist attack on the U.S. consulate in the Saudi port city of Jeddah, which killed five non-American staff members, was a worrisome display of al-Qaeda's careful planning, detailed timing, and audaciousness. Worse still, the assault contradicts Riyadh's claims that it has contained the threat of terrorism. The incident, which comes at a time of persistent high oil prices, has only exacerbated concerns about some of the most senior members of the ruling al-Saud family with regard to their health and ability to govern.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia