Political Geography: Middle East / Topic: Politics

101. An Empirical Analysis of the Women and Peace Hypothesis

Author:: Malek Abduljaber
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: For decades, social scientists have questioned whether women are more politically tolerant, peaceful, and less likely to prefer war to solve international conflict compared to men. Empirical analyses have been limited to a few geographic regions: North America (the United States); the Middle East (Israel and the core Arab World); and Africa (Rwanda). Furthermore, the measurement of the dependent variable, perceptions of war and peace, has been either evaluated with a single item or with a few items tapping on various dimensions of war and peace. This paper extends the geographic coverage in the literature to include a cross-national analysis containing North American, Latin American, Western European, Eastern European, African, Asian and Pacific nations, and utilizes thirteen items measuring gender differences in attitudes towards the perception of war, conflict resolution, foreign policy attitudes, international organizations’ appeal, political tolerance, and international cooperation. The analysis utilizes the most up-to-date data of national representative surveys, the World Values Survey and the Arab Barometer, featuring mean comparison methods to supply readers with simple results informing the relationship between gender and perceptions of war and peace on a global level. The evidence reveals that there is no difference in perceptions between men and women regarding international conflict perceptions across countries.
Topic:: Gender Issues, Politics, Women, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Middle East

102. Iranian Politics Leading Up to the 2021 Presidential Elections and US Influences

Author:: Mari Nukii
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
Abstract:: It is no exaggeration to say that Iran has been one of victims most suffered from the Trump administration's 'America First' policy in the four years since President Trump's inauguration in 2017. The main cause was Trump's unilateral declaration on May 8, 2018 to withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and resume sanctions against Iran. Furthermore, in May 2019, the United States imposed a total embargo on Iranian oil and sent the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln and bomber units to the Middle East, heightening the risk of military conflict between the two countries.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, Elections, and JCPOA
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

103. Possible Polarization: The repercussions of the Beirut port blast investigation on the Lebanese political scene

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The investigations into the Beirut port blast, which took place in August 2020, witnessed significant developments recently. The judicial investigator, Judge Tariq Bitar, issued a series of rulings starting on July 2, stipulating the investigation of former ministers, current representatives as well as security and military leaders, with a demand to lift the immunity of some for the purpose of conducting investigations with them.
Topic:: Corruption, Politics, Leadership, Polarization, and Disaster Management
Political Geography:: Middle East, Lebanon, and Beirut

104. Governing Parameters: Will the New Governments in Israel and Iran Affect the Ongoing Tensions Between Them?

Author:: Rania Makram
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Israel and Iran are witnessing significant political changes that affected the ruling elites. The developments came in the wake of early legislative elections held in Israel in March leading to the formation of a new coalition government headed by Naftali Benett, leader of the right-wing party Yamina. In Iran, presidential elections held on June 18, were won by hardline chief justice Ebrahim Raisi. The internal political dynamics in Tel Aviv and Tehran cast a shadow on the whole political landscape in both countries, and are projected to have an impact on the trajectory of the non-traditional conflict between the two sides, which escalated over the past few months.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Israel

105. Restoring the Balance: The economic and political motives for the 'New Mashriq' Project

Author:: Muthana Al-Obeidi
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The New Mashriq Plan, which was announced in the Baghdad tripartite summit (which brought together president Abdel-Fattah El-sisi of Egypt, King Abdullah II of Jordan, and the Iraqi prime minister, Mustafa al-Kadhimi), stimulated a lot of analyses, which reflected two opposing views. Some analysts seemed to be overly optimistic about the outcomes of this Iraqi-Egyptian-Jordanian project. On the other hand, others adopted a more skeptical, even pessimistic, attitude, believing that it will fail to achieve its purpose, on account of the many challenges it has to face. Despite all the analyses available about the project, questions are still being raised, such as: How did the project develop? What is its economic agenda? What about its political dimensions? And, last but not least, what will its future be like?
Topic:: Economics, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, Egypt, and Jordan

106. Appointing Mikati: Will it be the last chance for Lebanon?

Author:: Nawar Samad
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: On July 26, 2021, Lebanese President Michel Aoun appointed former Prime Minister Najib Mikati, to form a new government, after Saad al-Hariri's apology ending a rough 9 months path of fruitless negotiations with President Aoun. Despite optimism surrounding the formation of the new government by Mikati, highlighted by President Aoun’s statement on August 14 that he hopes "white smoke" will appear soon with regards to the formation of a new government, a key question remains: Will Mikati succeed in dismantling the complications that hindered forming a new government, particularly with the emergence of new domestic and regional dilemmas?
Topic:: Government, Politics, Military Affairs, and Elections
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

107. Whose Long Arm? Challenges to Understanding Turkish Diaspora Politics

Author:: Christopher Houtkamp and Kars de Bruijne
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: This Clingendael policy brief seeks to explain visible manifestations of Turkish politics in European cities. Why does Turkish politics lead to unrest in Rotterdam and Berlin and what institutional mechanisms facilitate this? The brief highlights various drivers, institutional manifestations and historical changes, but also points out that there are a number of uncertainties and questions about the motivations for, and modus operandi of, Turkey’s influence in European societies. These questions are all the more relevant as European policy-makers increasingly seek to take measures in order to curb this. The main argument developed in this brief is that effective policy ‘at home’ (in Europe) will require better knowledge of socio-political developments ‘abroad’ (in Turkey). The first and second parts of this brief, therefore, show how the drivers of Turkish influence on the diaspora have changed over time. The third section highlights how present-day diaspora politics is institutionally anchored in Western Europe. Most of the practical examples in this brief are drawn from the Dutch context, but the dynamics will be familiar to those observing this phenomenon in other Western European countries.
Topic:: Politics, Diaspora, and Institutions
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

108. Fruitless cherry picking?: EU engagement with the Syrian opposition (Etilaf)

Author:: Lars Hauch
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: This policy brief examines the EU’s engagement and relationship with Syria’s main political opposition umbrella, the Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces (Etilaf), which was founded in late 2012. It discusses the EU’s engagement strategies with the Etilaf and their impact on its development in the context of the Syrian conflict. The brief highlights that the EU did not substantiate the international legitimacy it granted the organisation early on during the conflict with policies that would have allowed it to expand its domestic legitimacy and capabilities. This policy contributed to developments in which the Etilaf rapidly lost its original potential. While the Etilaf today faces a range of structural and operational challenges that need to be addressed, the brief nevertheless recommends EU institutions and Member States to increase their support for the Etilaf and the Interim Government linked with it, if a number of conditions can be met. Such support will help maintain and develop these bodies into a viable centre of political opposition to the Assad regime. Practically speaking, this objective can be pursued by piloting conditional EU support to areas of northwestern and northern Syria that are nominally under the control of the Interim Government. It also requires building a partnership with Turkey to jointly support local Syrian administration(s) in the same areas.
Topic:: Politics, European Union, Conflict, Syrian War, Bashar al-Assad, and Opposition
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, and Syria

109. Turkey’s interventions in its near abroad: The case of Libya

Author:: Engin Yüksel
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: The strategic objectives of the Turkish military intervention in Libya in 2019–2020 in favour of the Government of National Accord (GNA) were geopolitical (establishing an entry point into Africa in addition to Somalia), geo-economical (related to gas exploration in the Mediterranean) and commercial (facilitating repayment of outstanding business debts and enabling future profits). The deeper drivers of Ankara’s intervention include a mix of more assertive nationalism based on a hegemonic conception of Turkey’s ‘near abroad’, a perceived need to counter the military campaign of the Libyan National Army (LNA)’s to conquer Tripolitania, and Turkey’s exclusion from Mediterranean gas politics. Ankara’s intervention and its institutionalisation proved effective in counterbalancing the LNA and its international backers – chiefly Russia and the UAE, but also France and Egypt – and produced a more stable political situation in the process. While Turkey has achieved its short- to medium-term objectives and is likely to retain a substantial permanent military, commercial and political presence in Libya, it also created tensions with the EU and US as well as antagonizing the LNA’s international backers. In brief, an improvement in Turkey’s geostrategic position might have come at the cost of its regional strategic relations.
Topic:: Politics, Military Affairs, Geopolitics, Military Intervention, and Regional Power
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Libya

110. Puzzles of Political Change in the Middle East: Political Liberalisation, Authoritarian Resilience and the Question of Systemic Change

Author:: Oliver Schlumberger
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: The discussion paper deals with two questions: (i) Have the changes witnessed in the Arab region since 2010/-11 led to systemic transitions? - and, since the question is negated: Have political changes made systemic transitions more likely than before?
Topic:: Politics, Authoritarianism, Resilience, and Liberalization
Political Geography:: Middle East

111. Countering Zero-Sum Relations in the Middle East: Insights from the Expert Survey

Author:: Flavio Fusco
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Building on emerging debates on the need to develop de-escalation mechanisms for the Middle East, the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) and the Brussels-based Foundation for European Progressive Studies (FEPS), with support from the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, launched a one-year research and outreach project entitled “Fostering a New Security Architecture in the Middle East”. Connected to the research, an expert survey targeting European, US, Russian, Middle Eastern and Chinese experts and practitioners was conducted on key themes, principles and approaches associated with a potential new security architecture for the region. The results of the survey – first published in an edited book volume jointly published by IAI and FEPS in November 2020 – are analysed below, complete with tables and infographics on key themes associated with the research project and the search for new, inclusive mechanisms for dialogue and de-escalation in the Middle East.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Security, Foreign Policy, and Politics
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, Middle East, and United States of America

112. Ten Years of the Syrian Conflict: Time for the EU to Reconsider Its Strategy?

Author:: Amer Al-Hussein
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The Syrian conflict entered its eleventh year on 15 March 2021, bringing this “living nightmare” back to our minds.[1] This ominous anniversary should remind the world of the importance of addressing the bleak reality inside Syria. While the new US administration provides a glimmer of hope for a return to diplomacy, multilateralism and an end to the mercantilism of the past years, Europe would be wrong to simply wait for the US lead on Syria.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, Sanctions, European Union, Institutions, and Coronavirus
Political Geography:: Middle East, Syria, United States of America, and Mediterranean

113. Against All Odds: An Ambitious Climate Policy for Lebanon

Author:: Silvia Crescimbeni, Abi-Nassif, Vahakn Kabakian, and Jessica Obeid
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Amid converging political, economic, and humanitarian crises, Lebanon has recently doubled down on its climate ambition for the next ten years. In its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) submission to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the country has revised both its GHG emission reduction targets and renewable-energy-sourced power generation targets upwards. Does climate change bear national security implications for Lebanon today? How can climate-proofed infrastructure projects and low-carbon technologies attract investments, create jobs and support Lebanon’s economic revival post-collapse? How will immediate policy choices and renewable energy integration ensure economic growth and shape the future of critical sectors such as energy, water, food, and transportation? What is the role of climate diplomacy and partnerships in achieving Lebanon's climate ambitions? How can Lebanon ensure that its climate policy does not fall through the cracks?
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, National Security, Politics, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

114. The Political Economy of Syria’s Physical Fragmentation and Dependence

Author:: Samir Aita
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: It is difficult to imagine how the Syrian conflict could be resolved through a political process alone that does not directly involve the combating forces in Syria – namely the Syrian army and its associated militias linked to the power system in Damascus, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and their Democratic Union Party (PYD) power system, as well as the “opposition” factions and their respective backers, i.e. Iran and Russia, the USA and Turkey. Similarly, it is difficult to imagine such a solution without addressing the political economy that has emerged and that now underpins these forces’ power, the warlords’ chaos-inducing advantages gained from the country’s physical fragmentation, the hidden or open bargains between these warlords and other powers, and the deterioration of Syrians’ living conditions to unbearable levels. The current situation, where the country’s physical fragmentation has reached relative stability, could persist for a long time at the people’s expense. However, several factors could reignite the conflict: growing competition over resources and rent-seeking activities, even within each area of influence; the ongoing decline in much-needed international aid; and the further deterioration of the situation expected in Lebanon and its consequences for Syria.
Topic:: Economics, Political Economy, Politics, Conflict, Peace, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

115. The Trump Plan: Not the Way to Advance Israeli-Palestinian Peace

Author:: Nadav Tamir, Nimrod Goren, Lior Lehrs, Yonatan Touval, Elie Podeh, Ksenia Svetlova, Maya Sion-Tzidkiyahu, Merav Kahana-Dagan, Barukh Binah, and Roee Kibrik
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: Following the publication of the Trump plan, Mitvim Institute experts argue that this is not the way to advance Israeli-Palestinian peace. This document includes initial commentaries by Nadav Tamir, who claims that Israel needs a real peace plan; Dr. Nimrod Goren, who calls on the international community to say “no” to the Trump plan; Dr. Lior Lehrs, who explains that on the Jerusalem issue, Trump shatters the status quo and previous understandings; Yonatan Touval, who argues that Trump takes problematic diplomatic practices of his predecessors to the extreme; Prof. Elie Podeh, who contends that the Trump plan is not even an opportunity for peace; Former MK Ksenia Svetlova, who warns that the Trump plan might endanger Israel’s warming ties with Arab countries; Dr. Maya Sion-Tzidkiyahu, who claims that while the EU remains committed to the two-state solution, it struggles to respond to the Trump plan; Merav Kahana-Dagan, who identifies an opportunity to bring the Palestinian issue back to the forefront; Amb. (ret.) Barukh Binah, who calls on Israeli leaders to seek diplomatic, not only security, advice; and Dr. Roee Kibrik, who thinks that Israelis should decide what type of country they want to live in.
Topic:: Politics, Territorial Disputes, Peace, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Jerusalem, North America, and United States of America

116. Assessing Israel Katz’s First Year as Foreign Minister

Author:: Nimrod Goren
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: In February 2019, Israel Katz was named Israel’s interim foreign minister, and three months later his appointment became permanent. This ended a period of almost four-years without a fulltime foreign minister, during which the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) significantly declined. A year into Katz’s term, an assessment can be made as to whether his appointment has strengthened the MFA and left a policy imprint. This, while taking into consideration the turmoil in Israeli politics since early 2019 and the understanding that deeper change requires a ministerial tenure longer than a year. This article sums up Katz’s first year on the job, based on media reports and information published by the MFA. It examines both intra-ministerial and policy aspects, and concludes that Katz is operating in Netanyahu’s heavy shadow, has failed to address the deep budgetary crisis faced by the MFA, and has focused on developing ties with Gulf States and combatting anti-Semitism.
Topic:: Government, Politics, Financial Crisis, and Benjamin Netanyahu
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Gulf Nations

117. Professionalizing the Iraqi Army: US Engagement after the Islamic State

Author:: C. Anthony Pfaff
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: Security cooperation with Iraq remains a critical component of the US-Iraq relationship. Despite neighboring Iran’s ability to limit US political and economic engagement, Iraq still seeks US assistance to develop its military and to combat resurgent terrorist organizations. This monograph provides a historical and cultural basis from which to understand the limitations and potential for US cooperation with Iraq’s armed forces.
Topic:: Security, Politics, Terrorism, Military Strategy, Armed Forces, Military Affairs, Islamic State, and Economy
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

118. Turkey and the United States on the Brink: Implications for NATO and the US-Turkish Strategic and Military Partnership

Author:: Kamal A. Beyoghlow
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: This monograph analyzes the current political tensions between the United States and Turkey and suggests ways to manage them. The two countries have been strategic allies since at least the end of World War II—Turkey became a North Atlantic Treaty Organization member and participated with its military forces in the Korea War, and during the Cold War protected NATO’s southern flank against Soviet communism, and Turkey’s military and intelligence services maintained close relationships with their Western and Israeli counterparts. These relationships were not without problems, due mostly to differences over minority and civil rights in Turkey and over Turkey’s invasion of Cyprus in 1973 and continued tensions with Greece. The special relationship with the United States was put to the final test after the Islamic conservative populist political party, Justice and Development, and its current leader, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, came to power in 2002. Turkey opposed the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the NATO-backed regime change in Libya in 2011. Most recently, Turkey has had strained relations with Cyprus, Greece, and Israel—all key US allies—and has alienated the US Congress and select NATO members further by its October 2019 invasion of Syria against Kurdish forces aligned with the US military against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, all against a background of a military rapprochement with Russia. This monograph highlights differences between US agencies concerning Turkey and ways to reconcile them, and offers several policy recommendations for new directions.
Topic:: NATO, Politics, History, Military Strategy, Bilateral Relations, and Armed Forces
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

119. The Battle for the Soul of Islam

Author:: James M Dorsey
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: It is not the caliphate that the world’s Muslim powerhouses are fighting about. Instead, they are engaged in a deepening religious soft power struggle for geopolitical influence and dominance. This battle for the soul of Islam pits rival Middle Eastern and Asian powers against one another: Turkey, seat of the Islamic world’s last true caliphate; Saudi Arabia, home to the faith’s holy cities; the United Arab Emirates, propagator of a militantly statist interpretation of Islam; Qatar with its less strict version of Wahhabism and penchant for political Islam; Indonesia, promoting a humanitarian, pluralistic notion of Islam that reaches out to other faiths as well as non-Muslim centre-right forces across the globe; Morocco which uses religion as a way to position itself as the face of moderate Islam; and Shia Iran with its derailed revolution. In the ultimate analysis, no clear winner may emerge. Yet, the course of the battle could determine the degree to which Islam will be defined by either one or more competing stripes of ultra-conservativism—statist forms of the faith that preach absolute obedience to political rulers and/or reduce religious establishments to pawns of the state.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Islam, Politics, and Ideology
Political Geography:: Russia, Iran, Indonesia, Turkey, Middle East, Asia, Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Qatar, and United Arab Emirates

120. Time for a New US Policy – The Yemen Review, November 2020

Author:: Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: The Yemen Review Launched in June 2016, The Yemen Review – formerly known as Yemen at the UN – is a monthly publication produced by the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies. It aims to identify and assess current diplomatic, economic, political, military, security, humanitarian and human rights developments related to Yemen. In producing The Yemen Review, Sana’a Center staff throughout Yemen and around the world gather information, conduct research, hold private meetings with local, regional, and international stakeholders, and analyze the domestic and international context surrounding developments in and regarding Yemen. This monthly series is designed to provide readers with a contextualized insight into the country’s most important ongoing issues.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Human Rights, Politics, Economy, Conflict, and Houthis
Political Geography:: Middle East, Yemen, and United States of America

121. War’s Elusive End – The Yemen Annual Review 2019

Author:: Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: The Yemen Review – formerly known as Yemen at the UN – is a monthly publication produced by the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies. Launched in June 2016, it aims to identify and assess current diplomatic, economic, political, military, security, humanitarian and human rights developments related to Yemen. In producing The Yemen Review, Sana’a Center staff throughout Yemen and around the world gather information, conduct research, and hold private meetings with local, regional, and international stakeholders in order to analyze domestic and international developments regarding Yemen. This monthly series is designed to provide readers with contextualized insight into the country’s most important ongoing issues.
Topic:: Security, Human Rights, Politics, United Nations, European Union, Drones, Conflict, Houthis, and Coalition
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and United States of America

122. The War Over Aid – The Yemen Review, January/February 2020

Author:: Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: The Yemen Review Launched in June 2016, The Yemen Review – formerly known as Yemen at the UN – is a monthly publication produced by the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies. It aims to identify and assess current diplomatic, economic, political, military, security, humanitarian and human rights developments related to Yemen. In producing The Yemen Review, Sana’a Center staff throughout Yemen and around the world gather information, conduct research, hold private meetings with local, regional, and international stakeholders, and analyze the domestic and international context surrounding developments in and regarding Yemen. This monthly series is designed to provide readers with a contextualized insight into the country’s most important ongoing issues.
Topic:: Security, Human Rights, Politics, United Nations, Foreign Aid, Conflict, Houthis, and Military
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Yemen, and United States of America

123. War and Pandemic – The Yemen Review, April 2020

Author:: Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: The Yemen Review Launched in June 2016, The Yemen Review – formerly known as Yemen at the UN – is a monthly publication produced by the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies. It aims to identify and assess current diplomatic, economic, political, military, security, humanitarian and human rights developments related to Yemen. In producing The Yemen Review, Sana’a Center staff throughout Yemen and around the world gather information, conduct research, hold private meetings with local, regional, and international stakeholders, and analyze the domestic and international context surrounding developments in and regarding Yemen. This monthly series is designed to provide readers with a contextualized insight into the country’s most important ongoing issues.
Topic:: Security, Human Rights, Politics, United Nations, Food Security, Economy, Conflict, COVID-19, and Military
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Yemen, and United States of America

124. Strangers to strategic partners: Thirty years of Sino-Saudi relations

Author:: Jonathan Fulton
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: This year marks the thirtieth anniversary of diplomatic relations between China and Saudi Arabia. Over the past three decades, the bilateral relationship has transitioned from one of marginal importance for both countries to a comprehensive strategic partnership, largely on the back of a trade relationship founded on energy. This report begins with a brief historical overview of Sino-Saudi relations, describing how the two countries transitioned from mutual hostility to diplomatic relations, and then how political and economic cooperation strengthened the relationship to the point that they signed a comprehensive strategic partnership in 2016. It then discusses how the partnership has developed through the 1+2+3 cooperation pattern, especially through projects linking China’s Digital Silk Road with Saudi vision 2030, as well as nascent levels of security cooperation. It ends with an analysis of the bi- lateral relationship within the context of the US-Sino-Saudi triangle: How does it affect each state’s larger strategic interests, and can issues where their interests diverge put a ceiling on future Sino-Saudi ties?
Topic:: Diplomacy, Environment, Politics, Bilateral Relations, Economy, Business, and Energy
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, Asia, Saudi Arabia, and Gulf Nations

125. Challenges to the Middle East North Africa Inclusionary State

Author:: Marc Lynch, Bassel Salloukh, Toby Dodge, Jeroen Gunning, Dima Smaira, Stacey Philbrick Yadav, Morten Valbjørn, Simon Mabon, Ala'a Shehabi, and Mariam Salehi
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:: The challenges to inclusionary states in the MENA region are daunting—including fiercely authoritarian states, the reality or threat of political violence, and ongoing protest movements. In September 2019, POMEPS and the Lebanese American University (LAU) brought together a diverse, interdisciplinary group of scholars to discuss the challenges to building more inclusive orders under these conditions.
Topic:: Security, Civil Society, Politics, Sovereignty, Sectarianism, Transitional Justice, State, Reconciliation, Inclusion, and Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF)
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, Yemen, North Africa, and Lebanon

126. MENA’s Frozen Conflicts

Author:: Marc Lynch
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:: Over the last year, the MENA region’s simmering conflicts have seemed frozen in place. The internationally-fueled civil wars in Syria, Yemen and Libya have long since settled into an equilibrium in which no side can either truly win or truly lose. Those conflicts have been held in place in part by local ecologies and war economies and in part by the competitive interventions by regional and international powers on behalf of their proxies and clients. But are these conflicts truly frozen? What does viewing them through such a lens gain, and what are the theoretical and analytical costs? To explore these questions, POMEPS convened a virtual research workshop on September 25, 2020, with scholars from diverse empirical and theoretical backgrounds.
Topic:: Security, Civil War, Politics, Citizenship, Military Intervention, Conflict, Syrian War, Mental Health, Crisis Management, Peace, Justice, Capital, and Mobilization
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, Libya, Yemen, North Africa, Lebanon, Syria, and United States of America

127. Joe Biden’s US Election Victory in the Eyes of Egyptians

Author:: Michael Barak
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: In this issue of Beehive, Michael Barak analyzes the reactions in the social media to the election of Joe Biden to the US Presidency among supporters and opponents of the Egyptian regime, including exiled dissidents. The growing probability of Joe Biden victory during the election week gained widespread attention on social media among Egyptian citizens and exiled dissidents. While al-Sisi’s supporters responded coldly, expressing concern about the tightening of the new administration’s policy towards the Egyptian regime, Egyptian exiled dissidents showed mixed feelings. On the one hand, there are those who express optimism, joy, and anticipation for a change of the American policy that they criticize for being sympathetic to the Egyptian regime. On the other hand, there are those who seek to cool the sense of euphoria, arguing that the American presidency does not intend to change its sympathetic attitude towards its traditional allies. Yet, some of the Egyptian exiled dissidents believe that this is the right time to erode the power of the Egyptian regime.
Topic:: Politics, Elections, and Social Media
Political Geography:: Middle East, North America, Egypt, and United States of America

128. Continuity and Change in Iraq’s Sunni Politics: Sunni Arab Political Trends, Factions, and Personalities Since 2014

Author:: Kirk H. Sowell
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: The year 2014 was a horrible one for Iraq. The national election held in April was preceded by two ominous trends: an increasingly strong, armed insurgency from the Sunni Arab population and an increasingly sharp sectarian conflict within the mainstream political system, driven by actions of both the Shia Islamist-dominated government and Sunni Arab political leaders. A divisive election with a disputed result was followed by a strong insurgency, and while both pan-Arab and Iraqi Sunni media tended to frame it as a “revolution” driven by oppressed Sunni tribesmen, the self-proclaimed Islamic State (ISIS), a brutal terrorist group with a globalist Salafi-Jihadist ideology, was its primary driver. The crucible event of the year was the fall of Mosul, Iraq’s most populous Sunni-majority city in the northwest province of Nineveh, to ISIS jihadists on June 10. The city did not fall without resistance, as is sometimes said, as federal police units fought a four-day gun battle for the city, while army divisions, including two garrisoned right outside the city, watched on. Once resistance in the city collapsed, several Iraqi army divisions, weakened by sectarian divisions and riddled with corruption, collapsed almost overnight, and terrorists overran much of northern and western Iraq. These events were a watershed for Iraq, and especially for its Sunni Arab population, and it is Sunni Arab politics since 2014 which is the focus of this chapter.
Topic:: Corruption, Politics, Sectarianism, Elections, Sunni, and Shia
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

129. Iraq in Transition: Competing Actors and Complicated Politics

Author:: Aaron Stein
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: The Republic of Iraq has faced considerable challenges after the American-led invasion in 2003 to oust Saddam Hussein, ranging from insurgency to endemic corruption and poor government services. Baghdad has emerged as the epicenter of a broader geopolitical struggle between the United States and Islamic Republic of Iran, two hostile adversaries at odds since the Islamic Revolution toppled the American-friendly Shah in 1979. Amidst these broader challenges, Iraq faced an existential security threat in 2014, after the Islamic State gained strength in Syria, augmented its ranks with foreign fighters, and took control over eastern Syria and parts of western Iraq, including the Iraqi city of Mosul, the country’s second largest city. The war to defeat this group was brutal and fraught, with the Iraqi military bearing the brunt of the casualties fighting for control over densely populated urban areas and vast expanses of desert terrain. The fighting consumed Iraqi affairs for years, blunted the sharp tensions that underpin U.S.-Iran relations, and focused military efforts on the defeat of a common enemy. In the year since the defeat of the Islamic State, the American role in Iraq has become less clear. The United States has undertaken an aggressive policy, dubbed “Maximum Pressure,” to economically coerce the Iranian government to make a series of concessions, including limits on the development of ballistic missiles and foreign policy changes. This effort included the American withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the multi-national agreement that placed considerable limits on Iran’s nuclear program and instituted an expansive inspection regime to verify the terms of the deal in exchange for Iran receiving American and European sanctions relief. The Trump administration’s decision to reimpose sanctions severely complicated the arrangement, depriving Iran of the reward for its compliance and setting in motion a series of Iranian steps to try to coerce Europe to continue to uphold trade with the Islamic Republic. The United States, however, has threatened to sanction European entities should they not comply with American policy. The tensions over sanctions have had a deleterious effect on stability in Iraq and the Middle East, more broadly. The Iranian government has gradually increased its efforts to impose a cost on the United States for using sanctions to end its export of oil, beginning with a series of attacks on oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, escalating to include missile strikes on important oil centers in Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq and Khurais, and then a shooting down an American surveillance drone. In response to rocket attacks inside Iraq, the United States has struck Iraqi militia’s linked to Iran and, in January 2020, assassinated Major General Qasem Soleimani, the now-deceased leader of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp. (IRGC), and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, an Iranian-linked actor that oversaw Iraqi militias sympathetic to the Islamic Republic. In retaliation, the Iranian military fired a salvo of ballistic missiles at bases in Iraq, striking targets with precision, but luckily resulting in no American deaths. The strikes still resulted in over one hundred cases of traumatic brain injury in the soldiers at the targeted bases. The tit-for-tat underscores Iran’s appetite for risk, particularly at time when its economy is under siege from U.S. actions.
Topic:: Politics, Insurgency, Sectarianism, Islamic State, Sunni, Transition, Muqtada al-Sadr, and Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF)
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Kurdistan

130. No Peace Without Justice in Afghanistan

Author:: Huma Saeed
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:: Afghanistan’s presidential election took place on September 28, 2019, with less than 2 million people participating out of 9.7 million registered voters. Taking into consideration Afghanistan’s total population of 35 million, the turnout was a historic low—a problem further amplified by the fact that the government poured a huge amount of financial and human resources into election preparation. The main explanation for such low turnout is twofold. On the one hand, security threats such as suicide attacks or gun violence—which reached their peak during the presidential election campaigns—deterred many people from going to polling stations. On the other hand, Afghans have become wary about determining their own political fate because, for decades, regional and international powers have steered the political wheel in Afghanistan, rather the people. After four months, election results have still not been announced, leading to further speculation and anxiety among a population which has already been the victim of four decades of violent conflict in the country. This anxiety is further exacerbated by the ongoing “peace” negotiations with the Taliban. Afghan people have learned from experience that, even in the best-case scenario of the election results or peace negotiations, they cannot hope for new justice measures to heal their wounds. As demonstrated by the experience of Afghanistan and other countries, peace and security will not last without addressing the people’s demands for justice.
Topic:: Development, Human Rights, Politics, Elections, Taliban, and Justice
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Middle East

131. As Israel’s Kingmaker Gets Off the Fence, Gantz Gets a Boost

Author:: David Makovksy
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Although Benny Gantz’s party lost the head-to-head battle, Avigdor Liberman’s favorable influence on the coalition math has left the general in a stronger position—and taken some diplomatic weight off the Trump administration’s shoulders. Israel’s third round of elections last week seemed inconclusive at first, but the deadlock may now be broken. Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu did better this time than in September’s round two, but his gains were insufficient to form a new government. Potential kingmaker Avigdor Liberman jettisoned his previous idea of getting the two top parties to join forces; instead, personal antipathy and policy differences have led him to definitely state that he will not join any government Netanyahu leads. Thus, while centrist Blue and White Party leader Benny Gantz may have options to shape a new government, Netanyahu has no pathway on his own. In theory, the center-left bloc has the requisite number of seats for a bare majority in the 120-member Knesset, since anti-Netanyahu forces won 62 seats. In reality, the situation is more complex.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Government, Politics, and Elections
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America

132. Iranian Succession and the Impact of Soleimani’s Death

Author:: Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The general’s peerless domestic stature would have served a crucial mediatory role during the eventual transition to Khamenei’s successor, so his death brings significant uncertainty to that process. Following the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, much attention has been focused on the foreign operations conducted by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps-Qods Force. Yet his organization also played a major role at home, one whose future is now unclear. In particular, Soleimani himself was well positioned to be a unifying, steadying figure once Iran faced the challenge of determining a successor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Topic:: Politics, Military Affairs, Authoritarianism, and Qassem Soleimani
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

133. Iran’s Supreme Leader Responds to the Soleimani Assassination

Author:: Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Khamenei and other regime officials have been quick to swear revenge, but for now they may focus more on stoking patriotic and militaristic sentiment at home. A few hours after Iran confirmed that Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force commander Qasem Soleimani had been killed in Iraq, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei issued a statement describing those who shed his blood as “the most wretched of humankind.” Calling Soleimani the international symbol of “resistance,” he then announced three days of public mourning in Iran. He also declared that “severe revenge awaits the criminals” who killed Soleimani—an act that the United States had claimed credit for by the time he spoke. Other highranking officials echoed this sentiment, including President Hassan Rouhani, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, and Defense Minister Amir Hatami, who explicitly promised “revenge” on “all those” involved in the assassination. Despite this rhetoric, however, and despite Soleimani’s unmatched role in carrying out Iran’s regional policy of adventurism and asymmetric warfare, the regime may avoid major, immediate retaliation if it sees such a move as too costly or as a potential trigger for serious military conflict with the United States. On January 1, amid escalating tensions in Iraq but before Soleimani’s assassination, Khamenei stated, “We would not take the country to war...but if others want to impose something on this country, we will stand before them forcefully.” In response to President Trump’s assertion that Iran played a role in the December 31 riot at the U.S. embassy in Baghdad, Khamenei told listeners he had two messages for Washington: “First, how dare you! This has nothing to do with Iran. Second, you should be reasonable and understand what is the main cause for these problems. But of course they are not [reasonable].”
Topic:: Politics, Qassem Soleimani, and Assassination
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

134. Hezbollah Has a New Strategy to Survive Lebanon’s Financial Crisis

Author:: Hanin Ghaddar
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Unless Washington and its allies respond to the protestors’ legitimate demands for reform, the group will survive through measures such as expanding its smuggling activity, promoting its financial institutions, and selectively scapegoating corrupt politicians. When IMF officials visited Lebanon late last month amid its accelerating economic freefall, many wondered whether these developments might alter the behavior of Hezbollah, the designated terrorist group that has a deep financial stake in the country’s public and private sectors. During a previous funding crisis—the increase in U.S. sanctions against the group’s chief underwriter, Iran—the “Party of God” and its foreign sponsors formulated a new strategy to evade these measures and create alternative sources of funding. Such sources allowed Hezbollah to make further inroads into government agencies following the 2018 parliamentary elections. For example, the group’s leaders insisted on controlling the Health Ministry, which commands Lebanon’s fourth-largest budget at $338 million per year; they also gained more access to the Ministry of Public Works and Transport, the Agriculture Ministry, and the Ministry of Energy and Water, whose assistance was used to fund their affiliated projects and businesses. That worked until Lebanon’s own economy began its current nosedive. Unemployment has hit a record high of 40 percent, and the lira has slumped by about 60 percent on the parallel market, hiking inflation. Officially pegged to the dollar, the currency has plummeted 40 percent on the black market as local banks ration dollars necessary for imports of food, medicine, and other essential goods. Meanwhile, Lebanon has one of the highest debt-to-GDP ratios in the world (over 150 percent) and may not be able to pay $1.2 billion in Eurobonds this month. As with the Iran sanctions, however, Hezbollah has a strategy to survive this domestic pressure, at least in the near term.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Corruption, Debt, Politics, Protests, and Hezbollah
Political Geography:: Middle East, Lebanon, and United States of America

135. New Khamenei Speech Underlines the Importance of Popular Support for the Regime

Author:: Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Instead of focusing on Iran's missile retaliation or future threats, the Supreme Leader used his latest speech to extoll the virtues of public unity behind the regime’s revolutionary goals. On January 8, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei delivered his first public speech since the U.S. assassination of Qasem Soleimani and the subsequent Iranian missile strike on Iraqi bases housing American forces. As part of an address that touched on regional solidarity against the United States and other notable subjects, he spent considerable time claiming that Soleimani symbolized the Iranian people’s continued commitment to the revolution. In doing so, he indicated that popular support for the regime remains a crucial objective for Iran’s leaders, perhaps more so than issuing or acting on further military threats.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, Domestic Politics, Qassem Soleimani, and Assassination
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

136. Reading Trump in Tehran

Author:: Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: A week after Donald Trump was elected president in November 2016, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei played coy, remarking, “I have no judgment on the American election...[Both parties have been] naughty toward us.” Of course, his true reaction was far more complex. On one hand, he saw in the president-elect—who had spoken much of disentangling U.S. forces from the Middle East—a prospect of decreased military pressure on his country. On the other, he heard Trump’s raw vitriol directed at Iran’s leadership and the nuclear deal crafted by President Obama. The eventual U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA demonstrated that the new president could back up his talk with punishing action. In this close analysis of statements by Khamenei and other Iranian leaders, former seminarian Mehdi Khalaji lays out the regime’s current views on President Trump and the United States. He shows that even after the American assassination of Qods Force chief Qasem Soleimani, Iranian leaders could be open to negotiating with Washington if they believe the regime’s existence depends on it.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, Elections, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

137. U.S. Do’s and Don’ts in Iraq

Author:: Michael Knights
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: To ensure that new protests, new sanctions, and new political leadership wind up helping rather than hindering Iraqi sovereignty, Washington must handle upcoming developments with great care. In the coming weeks, Iraq’s parliament may appoint a replacement for Prime Minister Adil Abdulmahdi. This is a very positive development, since the country’s sundry Iranian-backed militias would like nothing better than to keep the discredited leader under their thumb as an open-ended caretaker premier following his November resignation. In contrast, a new leader with a new mandate could get the government moving again, pass a budget, bring the criminals responsible for killing protestors to justice, and assuage angry protestors by making visible preparations for early, free, and fair elections—thereby remedying the results of the widely disparaged 2018 vote. Such is the political space that has opened up since the deaths of Iranian Qods Force commander Qasem Soleimani and Iraqi militia chief Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis earlier this month. For the United States, the challenge is how to support these changes without disrupting positive local dynamics.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, Sovereignty, and Sanctions
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

138. Understanding EU-MENA Relations: Current and Changing Dynamics

Author:: Przemysław Osiewicz, Alex Vatanka, and Suzanne Kianpour
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: The relationship between the European Union and the Middle East is facing a critical period of change, given the changing leadership in key European Union bodies, rising tensions with regard to Iran, and increasing confrontation between the United States and Iran. The Middle East Institute is pleased to invite you to a conversation with MEI scholar Przemysław Osiewicz, who will discuss his recently released paper series on the impact of leadership changes in key EU bodies such as the EU high representative for foreign and security policy, the European Commission, and the European Council on EU-MENA relations. He will be joined by MEI Senior Fellow Alex Vatanka and moderator Suzanne Kianpour to explore divergences between the United States and the EU approaches in their policies toward Iran, internal divisions within the EU on engagement with Iran, the role of economic factors, and the future of the JCPOA.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Politics, Geopolitics, and Leadership
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, United States of America, and European Union

139. The State of Tunisia's Democratic Transition and the Power and Perils of Consensus Politics

Author:: Daniel Brumberg, Sharan Grewal, Mohamed-Dhia Hammami, Sabina Henneberg, and William Lawrence
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Following elections in September and October, Tunisia is having difficulty forming a government, in part because of the collapse of the 2016 Carthage Pact. MEI is pleased to host a panel featuring several leading analysts of Tunisian politics, who will attempt to answer which approach can produce forward motion while at the same time prevent Tunisia from slipping backward towards authoritarianism. Some parties are defending the consensus model to preserve democratic gains, and others are pursuing to force change based on their political preferences. Presiding over all of this is a populist president without a political party who has in the past proposed a radical overhaul of the entire system, abolishing political parties, and creating a form of direct democracy. It is unclear if Tunisian democracy can survive any of these scenarios, whether it be consensus politics, majoritarian politics, or antipolitics. With any of the formulas, winners win, and losers can easily become spoilers, as nearly happened in 2013 with opposition protests led by the women's movement.
Topic:: Government, Politics, Elections, and Democracy
Political Geography:: Middle East, North Africa, and Tunisia

140. Reassessing the Reasons of Democracy Deficit in the Middle East through the Role of Islam

Author:: Ibrahim Karatas
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Journal of Middle Eastern Studies
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: There has been a large number of challenges to undemocratic regimes in the Middle East by their populations due to the denial of their participation in decision-making processes. Among many factors, Islamic faith and ruling are regarded to have more role in political conflicts than others. Particularly, the idea that Islam and democracy are not compatible with each other has prevailed and led to the neglect of other reasons in debates. This study analyzes the reasons for democracy deficit in the region such as the environment of mistrust abetting governments to abandon basic human and political rights, hydrocarbon revenues that make regimes independent from populations, the prevalent role of tribalism in government structures which is inherent to traditional Middle Eastern politics, the lack of civil society and the effect of Islam. The study asserts that the role of Islam is unfairly exaggerated since it does not offer a certain political system. Besides, such approaches also underestimate the strong damages other reasons cause. By analyzing the impact of Islam on governance, its use as a tool by political and anti-political Islamists as well as its compliance with democracy, this research aims to reveal to what extent Islam can be attributed to the democracy deficit of the region.
Topic:: Islam, Politics, Authoritarianism, and Sharia
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arab Countries

141. The Shifting Boundaries of Antisemitism

Author:: Manfred Gerstenfeld
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
Abstract:: An important tool in understanding the dynamics of antisemitism is the identification of moments when its boundaries shift. This occurred with the Trump Peace Plan, the antisemitism crisis in the British Labour party, the UN’s first World Conference against Racism, the huge outburst of antisemitism in France in 2000, and the German welcome policy for refugees and asylum seekers.
Topic:: Politics, Ideology, Peace, Anti-Semitism, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

142. UN Treaty Body Promotes BDS at Urging of Norwegian NGO

Author:: Anne Herzberg
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
Abstract:: UN treaty bodies are increasingly violating their mandates as part of discriminatory anti-Israel campaigns. In March 2020, the UN Committee on Economic Social and Cultural Rights (CESCR) embraced this disturbing trend by adopting a BDS agenda after being convinced to do so by the NGO Norwegian People’s Aid (NPA).
Topic:: Human Rights, Politics, United Nations, BDS, and NGOs
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Israel, Norway, and Palestine

143. The Jordan Valley Is Not Up for Negotiation

Author:: Gershon Hacohen
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
Abstract:: The Jordan Valley, in its full scope and broadest definition, is essential to Israel’s national security. Its retention by Israel requires not only military deployment but a comprehensive development plan—i.e., the construction of housing, roads, and infrastructure—that will establish this territory as Israel’s eastern wing.
Topic:: National Security, Politics, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Jordan Valley

144. The Chinese Penetration of Israeli Media

Author:: Roie Yellinek
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
Abstract:: In 2009, China Radio International (CRI) began broadcasting in Hebrew. This venture has proven a success for the Chinese and a failure for the Israeli media, which uncritically swallow the messages sent out by CRI’s Hebrew team.
Topic:: Politics, Mass Media, Media, and YouTube
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, Israel, and Asia

145. Başkanlık Sistemi Üzerine: Cumhurbaşkanlığı Sisteminin Zayıf Halkası Parlamento

Author:: Hamza Al
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Bilgi
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: Türkiye, 2017 yılında, 1876 yılından beri uygulamada olan Parlamenter hükümet sistemine son vererek, Başkanlık sistemine geçti. Uzun süreden beri yaşanan politik, ekonomik ve toplumsal sorunlar, Başkanlık sistemine geçişin gerekçesi olarak sunuldu. Parlamenter sistemden Başkanlık sistemine geçiş sürecinde, yeterli olmasa da, konu tartışıldı. Birçok konuda olduğu gibi bu konuda da baskın iki görüş ortaya çıktı. Başkanlık sisteminden yana olanlar, genellikle Türkiye’de yürürlükteki Parlamenter sistemin sonuçları üzerinden konuya yaklaştılar. Parlamenter sistemden yana olanlar ise Başkanlık sisteminin özellikle Latin Amerika’daki uygulamaları üzerinden konuyu ele aldılar. Artık Türkiye, Başkanlık sistemine geçtiğine göre yapılması gereken, Başkanlık sisteminin zayıf noktalarına ve yürürlükteki Cumhurbaşkanlığının eksiklerine odaklanmaktır. Böylece yürürlükteki sistem, daha güçlü hale gelebilir ve sistemden kaynaklanan sorunlar bir nebze olsun giderilebilir. Bu bağlamada çalışmada, hükümet sistemlerinin doğuşu, aralarındaki farklar, yaygınlıkları ele alındıktan sonra Başkanlık sisteminin zayıf noktaları ortaya konularak yürürlükteki Cumhurbaşkanlığı sisteminin eksiklikleri üzerinde durulmuştur. Buna göre, daha önceki Hükümet sistemi gibi, yeni Hükümet sisteminin de zayıf halkası yasama organıdır. Bu bağlamda Türkiye, yasama organını güçlendirilerek, muhtemel sorunların üstesinden gelebilir.
Topic:: Government, Politics, and Presidential Elections
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

146. The Status of Erbil-Baghdad Relations

Author:: Dlawer Ala'Aldeen
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:: In Iraq, politics is personal, and the politics of Baghdad-Erbil relations is no exception. Improvements and deteriorations in this relationship have largely been dictated by interpersonal dynamics, such as the rapport and mutual confidence between leaders. In May 2020, the Kurdistan Region’s major political parties played an unusually decisive role in having Mustafa Al-Kadhimi selected as the Prime Minister (PM) of Iraq. The Kurdistan Democratic Party and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan declared their support for his designation before he was officially nominated by the Iraqi President, Barham Salih. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) leaders knew Al-Kadhimi personally and had enjoyed good working relations with him when he was the chief of intelligence. Importantly, they believed that demonstrating early support was a worthwhile investment that could help to extend the period of tension-free engagement between Erbil and Baghdad, similar to what they experienced with Al-Kadhimi’s predecessor, Adil Abdul Mahdi. After a period of frozen relations that followed the Kurdish referendum for independence in September 2017, Erbil-Baghdad relations regained a degree of normality in the run up to the 2018 elections and were further bolstered by the appointment of Adil Abdul Mahdi, a personal friend and close associate of many KRG leaders. In 2019, Baghdad agreed to send Erbil 12.67% of the federal budget; in return, the KRG agreed to offer Baghdad 250,000 barrels of exported oil per day. For various reasons, the KRG never delivered the oil or its revenue, and the Shia political parties exerted unbearable pressure on the PM to cut the KRG from the national budget altogether. Nevertheless, Abdul Mahdi’s government continued to send the Kurdistan Region its share of the budget. Negotiations continued, and both sides eventually reached a comprehensive agreement to resolve the revenue issues from the KRG’s oil sales and border crossing customs. These negotiations, as well as the implementation of previous agreements, were suspended upon the resignation of Abdul Mahdi’s government at the end of November 2019. Nevertheless, budgetary payments to the KRG, minus the calculated revenue from the agreed KRG oil exports, continued until April 2020 (total IQD 454b, c. $278m). Unexpectedly though, in the final few weeks of his premiership, Abdul Mahdi ordered the finance ministryto halt the delivery of the KRG’s public-sector salary payments.
Topic:: Politics, Governance, Leadership, and Local
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

147. Iranian digital influence efforts: Guerrilla broadcasting for the twenty-first century

Author:: Emerson T. Brooking and Suzanne Kianpour
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Iran has invested significant resources and accumulated vast experience in the conduct of digital influence efforts. These clandestine propaganda efforts have been used to complement Iranian foreign policy operations for the better part of a decade. Nonetheless, Iranian influence capabilities have gone largely unstudied by the United States, and only came to widespread attention in August 2018 with the first public identification of an Iranian propaganda network. Following the US assassination of Iranian Major General Qasem Soleimani and a sharp escalation in US-Iranian tensions, it is important to understand the perspective, methods, and intent of Iranian influence efforts. For Iran, information dominance represents a central focus of both foreign and domestic policy. Iran sees itself as engaged in a perennial information war: against Sunni Arab powers, against the forces of perceived Western neocolonialism, and particularly against the United States. Should the information conflict be lost, many Iranian officials believe the collapse of the state will soon follow. Accordingly, Iran has prioritized the development of digital broadcast capabilities that cannot be easily targeted by the United States or its allies. Iran has also prioritized information control. Although Iran boasts roughly fifty-six million Internet users, these users must navigate a culture of censorship and frequent state intimidation. Following the 2009 Green Movement, the Iranian government came to see social media activism as enabling an existential threat. Authorities created special cyber-police units, built a new legal framework for Internet regulation, and outlawed most Western digital platforms. They also began to develop systems to remove Iranian users from the global Internet entirely. In pursuit of foreign and domestic information dominance, Iran began operating Facebook and Twitter sockpuppets as early as 2010. As the United States and Iran entered into a period of rapprochement and negotiation, the number of accounts grew exponentially. These accounts have been used to launder Iranian state propaganda to unsuspecting audiences, often under the guise of local media reports. To date, Facebook has identified approximately 2,200 assets directly affecting six million users. Twitter has identified eight thousand accounts responsible for roughly 8.5 million messages. Much of this Iranian content cannot be characterized as “disinformation.” In sharp contrast to the information operations of Russia, which routinely disseminate false stories with the aim of polluting the information environment, Iran makes less use of obvious falsehood. Instead, Iran advances a distorted truth: one that exaggerates Iran’s moral authority while minimizing Iran’s repression of its citizens and the steep human cost of its own imperial adventures in the wider Middle East. As a whole, Iran’s digital influence operations represent a continuation of public diplomacy, albeit conducted through misleading websites and social media sockpuppets. Iran broadcasts a fairly consistent message to many different audiences: in Africa, in Southeast Asia, in Europe, in North America, and, most notably, in Latin America and the Middle East. The aim of these efforts is to “tell Iran’s story,” the same as any Western government broadcaster might strive to do. The difference is that, as an international pariah, Iran must pursue this work through more clandestine means. Global observers have long learned to doubt the truthfulness and sincerity of Iranian-branded media. As the United States considers policies to safeguard its elections and confront Iranian influence activities, three conclusions can be drawn about the nature of Iran’s modern propaganda apparatus. Iran’s digital influence efforts involve centralized goals and disparate agents. Different elements of Iran’s digital propaganda apparatus evidence the involvement of different government agencies. It is not clear how, or if, these agencies coordinate their operations. These goals are closely tied to Iran’s geopolitical interests. Nearly all content spread by Iran’s digital influence efforts relates directly to its worldview or specific foreign policy objectives. Consequently, it is easier to identify the operations of Iran than those of other actors like Russia, whose content is more likely to be politically agnostic. Iran may attempt direct electoral interference in 2020 and beyond. To date, there is little evidence that Iran has sought to affect the outcome of a US election. This does not, however, preclude future such campaigns based on Iranian interest in achieving rapprochement with the United States.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Politics, Media, Conflict, and Disinformation
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

148. Arab Citizens are Not the Problem: How the 2020 Election Might Redefine the Israeli Political Landscape

Author:: Ahmad Agabaria
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: The elections conveyed a message: The Arab public refuses to be a problem in Israeli society, and strives to return to normalcy. The 1990s were engraved in the memory of the Arab public as a promising period for their rights, but today the tables have been turned. The establishment doubts the ability of Arab Knesset members to represent their constituents and doubts their allegiance to the state. Many in the Arab public understand that the enshrining national-Zionist identity of the state is directed against them. The delegitimization of the Arab minority and its elected representatives reached its peak in the recent elections. The slogan "Bibi or Tibi" is an expression of incitement and racism that should be denounced. The "deal of the century" plan, and in particular its intention to annex the Triangle Region to a Palestinian state, actually contributed to raising the turnout rate on the Arab street. The 15 seats won by the Joint List restored the belief to Arab citizens that change is possible.
Topic:: Politics, Minorities, Elections, and Citizenship
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

149. The Joint List: The Achievement and the Price

Author:: Rana Zaher
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: The achievement of the Joint List in the elections was made possible by the maturity of its constituents, the presentation of clear vision and objectives, the management of prudent media campaigns, the cumulative experience of parliamentary activity, and the response of Arab citizens to racist statements against them by Jewish politicians. The election of four Arab women for the Knesset on behalf of the Joint List breaks the glass ceiling for the political representation of women in Arab society. Arab women have high electoral potential and can reduce the gender gap between them and men. In the current political configuration in Israel, the Joint List has a significant political power and can no longer be ignored. However, unity has its price as the unique space of each constituent party is shrinking.
Topic:: Politics, Elections, and Women
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

150. Yahya Sinwar and Hamas’ Strategic Crossroad

Author:: Michael Milshtein
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: In the latest issue of Tel Aviv Notes, Michael Milshtein examines Yahya Sinwar's role in Hamas, as the organization searches for a way out of its current strategic impasse.
Topic:: Politics, History, Non State Actors, and Hamas
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

151. The New Arab Uprisings: How the 2019 trajectory differs from the 2011 legacy? (Part 1)

Author:: Peter Bartu
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: In 2019,the Middle East seems beset by conflict, chaotic politics and dysfunctional economies.However, the mood of the people in Algeria,Sudan,Lebanon and Iraq is more defiant.Not since 2011 have we seen such public demonstrations for accountability and an end to corruption,war and foreign meddling.
Topic:: Corruption, Politics, Arab Spring, Conflict, and Protests
Political Geography:: Iraq, Sudan, Middle East, Algeria, Arab Countries, and Lebanon

152. Protest Movements and Refugee Inclusion in Civil Society

Author:: Joyce Karam, Sawsan Abdulrahim, and Noof Assi
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Protests in Iraq and Lebanon have drawn global attention as protestors advocate for political and economic reform and an end to corruption, especially in the wake of the Beirut blast and Lebanon’s disaster response. These countries also face economic crisis and socio-political challenges relating to the millions of refugees and IDPs within their borders and the lack of sustainable policies to address displaced people’s needs. In Lebanon and Iraq, refugees and IDPs face discrimination and lack of access to educational and public health resources in addition to the widespread economic pain and disenfranchisement that these countries protest movements aim to confront. How have refugees in these countries been active in or left out of these movements? How can access gaps and discrimination be overcome to integrate refugee rights into these protest movements? How do protest movements reflect a desire to integrate refugees and IDPs into the social fabric of these countries?
Topic:: Economics, Politics, Reform, Refugees, Displacement, and Protests
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Lebanon

153. Playing Politics: International Security Sector Assistance and the Lebanese Military’s Changing Role

Author:: Hijab Shah and Melissa Dalton
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Following the August Beirut port explosion, the Lebanese Armed Forces must rebuild trust with the civilian population. The LAF can serve as a critical pillar in Lebanese government efforts to strengthen national security and identity in the midst of the crisis, in light of security sector assistance from the United States and other Western partners. The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), and Lebanon more broadly, is one of the largest recipients of foreign assistance in the Middle East. The United States and allied governments have sought to build the capabilities and professionalism of the LAF since the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war, focusing primarily on counterterrorism and border security. The LAF stood in stark contrast to other Lebanese security services in their restraint vis-à-vis the civilian population during the 2019 protests. However, recent reported violent incidents against civilians, ambiguity of the role of police forces, and concerns about both recovery efforts following the August 2020 port explosion in Beirut and extended powers under the state of emergency established by the Lebanese parliament have raised international concerns about the role of Lebanon’s security services, including the LAF. The LAF has a critical role to play in stabilizing Lebanon through a multi-faceted crisis, but will need to take concrete steps to bolster its professionalism. Lebanon’s modern politics have long been defined by confessionalism, a reality that persists even as the country is engulfed in crisis. International assistance to the LAF over the last fourteen years had intended to support the LAF as a legitimate national institution transcending confessions and supporting a broader sense of Lebanese security and identity. In the midst of the ongoing crisis in Lebanon, political turmoil at the helm of the country, and the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, there is an important opportunity for the international community to support a new path for governance in the country—as shaped and envisioned by its populace. This opportunity hinges upon leveraging existing channels of support to the LAF and building in conditionality mechanisms that hold the LAF accountable for its actions, while continuing to promote a clear articulation of priorities for the LAF and a plan to improve military effectiveness through policy and doctrine; training and equipment, education, and exercises; operations; and institutional capacity building.
Topic:: Security, Government, Politics, International Security, Military Affairs, and Identity
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

154. The Political Significance of the Trump Israeli-Palestinian Peace Plan

Author:: Michał Wojnarowicz
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The plan announced by U.S. President Donald Trump will not break the deadlock in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. For all involved parties, the plan will remain a point of reference for political and diplomatic actions in the coming months. The key factors of future developments would be Israel’s decision on the possible annexation of parts of the West Bank and, in the long-run, the outcome of this fall’s U.S. presidential elections.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Politics, Peace, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

155. The Islamic Group and Lebanon’s Popular Uprising*

Author:: Chafic Choucair
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: While a number of key and effective groups within the Lebanese regime stood against the Hirak movement, other parties, though few in number, provided the popular movement with unconditional support, as in the case of the Islamic Group (al-Jama’ah al-Islamiya).
Topic:: Politics, Islamism, Hezbollah, and Political Parties
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

156. Making Sense of the Sadrists: Fragmentation and Unstable Politics

Author:: Benedict Robin-D'Cruz and Renad Mansour
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: Iraq’s Sadrist movement, led by populist Shi’i cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, has been at the heart of Iraqi politics since 2003. The movement’s political strategies have shifted dramatically during this time, encompassing militant insurgency, sectarian violence, electoral politics, and reform-oriented street protests. Consequently, despite their prominence, the Sadrists’ shifting positions mean they remain one of the most complex and frequently misunderstood movements in Iraq. This is further compounded by the near-total absence of engagement between the Sadrists and Western, particularly American, governments. As Sadr has changed his movement’s politics again, this time toward a counter-protest stance, U.S. policymakers are once more grappling with the dilemmas posed by a movement that is both powerful and obscure.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, Non State Actors, and Muqtada al-Sadr
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

157. Palestinian Politics After Abbas Sudden Succession Essay Series

Author:: Ghaith al-Omari and Ehud Yaari
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Throughout his tenure as leader of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas has studiously avoided grooming a successor, instead consolidating his control over numerous Palestinian entities and sidelining officials he perceived as threatening to his rule. When he eventually exits the scene, Abbas will leave many leadership roles to be filled—including in the PLO, Fatah movement, and national security agencies. The Washington Institute has been sponsoring a series of discussions about sudden succession in the Middle East. Each session focuses on scenarios that might unfold if a specific ruler or leader departed the scene tomorrow. Questions include these: Would the sudden change lead to different policies? Would it affect the stability of the respective countries involved, or the region as a whole? What would be the impact on U.S. interests? Would the manner of a leader's departure make a difference? The discussions also probe how the U.S. government might adjust to the new situation or influence outcomes. This essay, eleventh in the series, looks at the Palestinian Authority, led by Mahmoud Abbas since 2005. Throughout his tenure, Abbas has studiously avoided grooming a successor, instead consolidating his control over numerous Palestinian entities and sidelining officials he perceived as threatening to his rule. When he eventually exits the scene, Abbas will leave many leadership roles to be filled—including in the PLO, Fatah movement, and national security agencies. The coronavirus pandemic appears to have altered the political dynamic somewhat, elevating Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh, who has earned strong reviews for his management of the crisis.
Topic:: National Security, Politics, and Mahmoud Abbas
Political Geography:: Middle East and Palestine

158. In Search of a Semi-Autonomous Region in Northeastern Syria

Author:: Kenneth R. Rosen
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: It is possible to conflate the development of an autonomous region of northern Iraq with one in northeastern Syria; as a colleague on this forum noted recently, the Kurds in northeastern Syria have suffered, and continue to suffer, greatly. But while they are allies who “by, with, and through” have helped to bring ISIS down to a regional crumb in an ever-growing platter of fractured groups, what the United States owes or can offer the Syrian Kurds is much different than what was secured in the early days of the 1990s in Iraq, in the midst Saddam's massacres of Kurds.
Topic:: Politics, Syrian War, Autonomy, and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)
Political Geography:: Middle East, Syria, Kurdistan, and Rojava

159. Reviving the Dying Giant: Addressing the Political Causes of Water Shortage in the Zayandeh Rud River, Iran

Author:: Ali Yousefi, Christian Knieper, and Claudia Pahl-Wostl
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: The Zayandeh Rud, one of the main rivers in Iran, suffers from severe water scarcity caused by competition among different water users. Overcoming the dominance of supply-oriented water management, strengthening transparency and more collaborative governance would help address the water crisis.
Topic:: Politics, Natural Resources, and Water
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

160. MEI Webinar Series Pt 1: The Future of Palestinian Politics under a Biden Administration

Author:: Khaled Elgindy, Sam Bahour, Tareq Baconi, Mustafa Barghouti, and Noura Erakat
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Part 1 – Reviving Palestinian Political Life Former Vice President Joe Biden’s election victory over President Donald Trump is likely to produce a major reset in American-Palestinian relations as well as in Washington’s role in Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking. No U.S. president had done more to isolate Palestinians and delegitimize Palestinian national aspirations than Trump. Meanwhile, Biden has pledged to reverse the most destructive aspects of Trump’s policies and restore U.S.-Palestinian relations in the hope of salvaging what remains of a two-state solution. Yet even as the Palestinians breathe a collective sigh of relief at Trump’s departure, the Palestinians’ internal house remains in a state of disarray and decline. The Palestinian national movement, now at one of the lowest points in its history, continues to be racked by political division, institutional stagnation, and a lack of strategic clarity.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Politics, Negotiation, Peace, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

161. MEI Webinar Series Pt 2: The Future of Palestinian Politics under a Biden Administration

Author:: Khaled Elgindy, Dana ElKurd, Yousef Munayyer, and Mustafa Barghouti
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Part 2 – Toward a Palestinian National Strategy Former Vice President Joe Biden’s election victory over President Donald Trump is likely to produce a major reset in American-Palestinian relations as well as in Washington’s role in Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking. No U.S. president had done more to isolate Palestinians and delegitimize Palestinian national aspirations than Trump. Meanwhile, Biden has pledged to reverse the most destructive aspects of Trump’s policies and restore U.S.-Palestinian relations in the hope of salvaging what remains of a two-state solution. Yet even as the Palestinians breathe a collective sigh of relief at Trump’s departure, the Palestinians’ internal house remains in a state of disarray and decline. The Palestinian national movement, now at one of the lowest points in its history, continues to be racked by political division, institutional stagnation, and a lack of strategic clarity.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Politics, Negotiation, and Peace
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

162. Voices from Turkish Politics: A Conversation with H.E. Ahmet Davutoğlu

Author:: Gonul Tol and Ahmet Davutoğlu
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: The Middle East Institute’s Turkish Studies Program is pleased to welcome H.E. Ahmet Davutoğlu, former Foreign Minister and Prime Minister of Turkey, to discuss pressing issues in Turkey’s domestic and foreign policy. Since the Justice and Development Party (AKP) came to power in 2002, Turkey has gone through an extraordinary transformation, one in which H.E. Davutoglu played a critical role. Please join us for this timely conversation, moderated by Turkish Studies Director Gonul Tol, which will delve into questions about that change as well as recent developments including the Turkish court decision to convert Hagia Sophia back into a mosque and Ankara's military presence in Libya.
Topic:: Politics, Domestic Politics, and AKP
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Libya

163. The Beirut Disaster: A Chance for a Systemic Change in Lebanon?

Author:: Aiman Mansour and Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The current political situation in Lebanon is very problematic. Hizbullah enjoys full freedom of action in a country which long ago became dysfunctional. Hence the importance of lending support to the French effort to bring about systemic change in the Lebanese confessional order. Further descent into chaos and/or growing intervention by Turkey would be even more dangerous for Israel.
Topic:: Security, Politics, Terrorism, and Political stability
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

164. From De-Europeanisation to Anti-Western Populism: Turkish Foreign Policy in Flux

Author:: Alper Kaliber and Esra Kaliber
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The International Spectator
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Recent Turkish foreign policy (TFP) under the successive AKP governments has seen different populist turns. A clear distinction can be made between the thin and thick populisms of TFP, based on the status of the West. The first decade of AKP rule, when foreign policy was thinly populist, was characterised by steady de-Europeanisation, increasing engagement with regional issues and a decentring of Turkey’s Western orientation. The turn toward thick populism has been characterised by anti-Westernist discourses in which the West is resituated as the ‘other’ of Turkish political identity.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, Populism, and Anti-Westernism
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

165. The Unmaking of Lebanon's Sectarian Order? The October Uprising and its Drivers

Author:: Tamirace Fakhoury
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Last month, an unprecedented protest movement took hold of Lebanon’s streets and public squares. Dubbed as the October uprising, the timing of the movement roughly coincided with important anniversaries, such as the fall of the Berlin Wall or other iconic historical events, including the October Revolution in Russia, leading many to draw comparisons. In the context of the 2011 Arab spring wave, many argued that Lebanon would stay isolated from the protest movements that gripped the region even though the country has witnessed previous protest cycles, such as the socalled 2005 Cedar Uprising. Still, eight years after the Arab protest wave, an unprecedented protest movement has materialised, spreading to various Lebanese cities from Tripoli to Sidon. In the wake of a proposed WhatsApp tax, people have been calling for the sacking of political leaders and the eradication of political sectarianism. Arguably, the protest movement may trace its roots back to a precursor wave of protests over a huge garbage crisis in 2015. Back then, the movement also decried the inept politics of sectarianism and corruption.
Topic:: Politics, Sectarianism, Domestic Politics, Protests, and Political Movements
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

166. Israel and Egypt: Strategic Partnership, Civil Remoteness?

Author:: Haim Koren
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: This article describes the relationship and cooperation between Israel and Egypt, and discusses the impact of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict on them. It focuses on the current political and security cooperation between the two countries regarding the Gaza Strip, the fight against terror, the Palestinian issue, the relations with the US administration, and the regional rivalry between Arab Sunni states and Iran. The article emphasizes that when it comes to civil and economic ties between Israel and Egypt, the potential for cooperation has yet to be fulfilled. Nevertheless, there are a few signs for economic cooperation in the areas of natural gas and industry (with the enlargement of the QIZ system), and to some positive change in the public attitude of the Egyptian government towards relations with Israel. The challenges to bolstering Israel-Egypt relations include bureaucratic, economic and politicalsecurity (e.g. the nuclear issue) components. Above all, however, stands the Israeli- Palestinian conflict and the perception of the Egyptian public that normalization with Israel cannot be reached prior to a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Politics, Regional Cooperation, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Egypt

167. The Role of Former Diplomats in Israel’s Public Sphere

Author:: Mitvim
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: In Israel, former diplomats do not tend to play a significant public role. However, they have the potential to make a real contribution to improving the public and political Israeli discourse on foreign policy. Israel’s former diplomats have dozens of years of experience, diplomatic skills, knowledge of various countries and organizations, intricate networks of social ties around the world, analytic capacity and deep understanding of the international arena and of Israel’s place among nations. This valuable experience often goes down the drain. A Mitvim Institute task-team recommended to increase their role in Israel’s public sphere, in order to empower Israel’s diplomacy and Foreign Service. On February 3, 2019, the Mitvim Institute hosted a policy workshop to discuss how this can be done. It was carried out in cooperation with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung and with participation of senior former diplomats (including Foreign Ministry directors-general and deputy directors-general). Discussants presented examples from other countries, outlined the situation in Israel, described the challenges to optimizing the potential impact of Foreign Ministry retirees, and identified recommendations to promote change.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

168. The Israeli Election Results and Israel's Foreign Policy

Author:: Nimrod Goren and Merav Kahana-Dagan
Publication Date:: 04-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: Benjamin Netanyahu won Israel’s election and declared he would form a new rightwing government. This will affect diverse aspects of Israel’s foreign policy. This document includes commentaries by Mitvim Institute experts regarding the election results and their possible foreign policy implications: Dr. Ehud Eiran argues that while Netanyahu presented himself ahead of the election as a super-diplomat, he also proved he is part of the global populist wave; Dr. Nimrod Goren claims that Israel’s right-wing government will have more leeway to implement its policies given weak domestic and foreign opposition; Dr. Roee Kibrik foresees increased tensions between Israel and leading global democratic forces; Dr. Lior Lehrs explains why the new government will face the threat of flare-ups at several Israeli-Palestinian flashpoints; Dr. Moran Zaga points out why Netanyahu constitutes an obstacle to promoting ties with Gulf States, as does the lack of a broad Israel strategy on relations with the Arab world; Former Ambassador Michael Harari claims that renewed peace process with the Palestinians is needed to take advantage of global and regional opportunities; Kamal Ali-Hassan assesses that Israel’s Arab population is losing trust in the state establishment and will seek to promote regional ties on its own; Dr. Eyal Ronen urges the new government to deepen its partnership with the EU rather than to continue its efforts to weaken and divide it; Yael Patir argues that Israel’s crisis with the US Democratic Party could deepen, especially as the 2020 presidential election draws near.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Politics, and Elections
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

169. The European Parliament Elections Results: Possible Significance for Europe and Israel

Author:: Maya Sion-Tzidkiyahu, Emanuele Giaufret, Omer Gendler, Noga Arbell, Ariel Shafransky, Eran Etzion, and Nimrod Goren
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: A policy roundtable on the 2019 European Parliament elections results and their possible significance for Europe and Israel took place on 30 May 2019 at Tel Aviv University. It was organized by the Israeli Association for the Study of European Integration (IASEI), Mitvim - The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies, the EU Studies Program at Tel Aviv University, and the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung. The event featured EU Ambassador to Israel H.E. Emanuele Giaufret, Ariel Shafransky and Noga Arbell from the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA), Maya Sion of IASEI, Dr. Nimrod Goren of the Mitvim Institute, former diplomat Eran Etzion, and Omer Gendler of the Open University.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, and Elections
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, and Israel

170. Guiding Principles for Israel’s Foreign Policy toward the EU

Author:: Mitvim
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: Ties with the EU are a strategic asset for the State of Israel. Europe is Israel’s largest trading partner, a source of political and defense support (despite disagreements), an anchor of shared norms and values, a partner in cultural creation, and a central collaborator in research and development. The importance of these ties obliges Israel to invest attention and resources in preserving and even deepening and expanding them. Done right, Israel could leverage the tremendous potential of its ties with Europe for the improved wellbeing of its citizens and for its international standing. However, in recent years, the Israeli government has been leading a negative campaign against the EU. It has been criticizing the EU for being anti-Israel, while making efforts to increase divisions between EU Member States in order to limit the EU’s capacity to play a role in the Israeli-Palestinian issue. Toward the formation of a new Israeli government in late 2019, this article presents ten guiding principles for an improved Israeli foreign policy toward the EU, based on the work of a Mitvim Institute task team.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, International Affairs, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Arab Countries, and European Union

171. Israel’s Foreign Policy towards the September 2019 Elections

Author:: Yuval Steinitz, Ofer Shelah, Merav Michaeli, Yisrael Beiteinu, Nitzan Horowitz, and Ofer Cassif
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: On 9 September 2019, the Mitvim Institute convened a pre-elections event on Israel’s foreign policy. The event focused on paths to advance peace with the Palestinians; to deepen Israel’s regional belonging in the Middle East, Europe and the Mediterranean; and to empower Israel’s diplomacy Foreign Service. Senior politicians from six political parties spoke at the event: Minister Yuval Steinitz (Likud), Member of Knesset (MK) Ofer Shelah (Blue and White), MK Merav Michaeli (Labor-Gesher), MK Eli Avidar (Yisrael Beiteinu), Nitzan Horowitz (Chair of the Democratic Union) and MK Ofer Cassif (Joint List). Each of them was interviewed by Arad Nir, foreign news editor of Channel 12 News. Dr. Nimrod Goren and Merav Kahana-Dagan of Mitvim delivered opening remarks in which they presented recent trends in Israel’s foreign policy and findings of a special pre-elections Mitvim poll. This document sums up the key points made at the event.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Government, Politics, and Elections
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

172. The Importance of Ties between Palestinian Citizens of Israel and Diaspora Jewry: A View from Britain

Author:: Sana Knaneh
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: Palestinian Arab citizens of Israel, who feel their political representatives cannot achieve significant change for them on domestic issues, find it hard to believe that their voice could be meaningful in Israel’s foreign relations. Indeed, their involvement in Israeli foreign relations, both in the governmental and non-governmental arena, is limited. However, one area in which their involvement and influence have significant untapped potential lies in forging ties with Diaspora Jewry. For instance, in London, there is a clear disconnect between the representative bodies of the Jewish community, such as the Board of Deputies of British Jews and the Jewish Leadership Council, and those representing the Palestinian community, such as The Association of the Palestinian Community in the UK and the Palestinian Forum in Britain which reflect the main currents of Palestinian thinking. While the disconnect is evident on the formal-organizational level, it does not preclude unofficial ties between Palestinians and Jews in London. Nonetheless, links between the two communities are limited, as is the space for joint discussions and exchanges of views, thoughts and narratives.
Topic:: Politics, Sovereignty, Diaspora, Minorities, and Political Activism
Political Geography:: Britain, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

173. The Power of the Words: Discourse in Turkish Foreign Policy | Kelimelerin Gücü: Türk Dış Politikasında Söylem

Author:: Gökhan Koçer
Publication Date:: 04-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Novus Orbis: Journal of Politics & International Relations
Institution:: Department of International Relations, Karadeniz Technical University
Abstract:: Language is one of the essential tools in politics. In this context, as for people, the importance of language is very high for states to express themselves politically. The language that states use to carry out their foreign policies has original qualities or at least is believed it should have. For this reason, the language used by the state in its foreign policy is different from the others. If it is not different, it is sometimes differentiated, or new meanings are assigned to the words in line with this purpose. It is a common practice that states produce and implement foreign policy by utilising the language and especially words. However, this can sometimes lead to various problems in foreign policy. Similar practices and problems exist in Turkish foreign policy as well. Naming, changing the name, naming it differently, labelling it in a negative manner, pronouncing the name differently, not-to-mention the name are of the tactics in this regard. In this study, two main topics on Turkish foreign policy are discussed. The first is the debate in Turkey on the last name of Syrian President "Bashar al-Assad" within the framework of what it is or how to pronounce it. Once the relationship between Turkey and Syria began to deteriorate, "Esed" instead of "Esad" has chosen to be used by some politicians, particularly Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The second one is the name of the terrorist organisation "ISIS“(Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham). The terrorist organisation formerly known as ISIS started to be named "DEAŞ", "DAİŞ", "DAEŞ" by a great number of people, especially Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The main reason for this is that the word of Islam takes place in the name of this terrorist organisation. Two inferences can be made on the subject. First, the language debates that took place inside Turkey are more frequent than the debates done between Turkey and its counterparts in the international arena and made by the outside world without Turkey's involvement. Secondly, the interventions in language and playing with words did not give the desired results. | Dil, siyasetin en önemli araçlarından biridir. Bu bağlamda kişilerin olduğu gibi, devletlerin de kendilerini siyaseten ifade etmelerinde dilin önemi çok yüksektir. Devletlerin dış politikalarını gerçekleştirmek için kullandıkları dil, özgün niteliklere sahiptir ya da en azından öyle olması gerektiğine inanılır. Bu nedenle de, devletin dış politikada kullandığı dil başkalarınınkinden farklıdır, değilse bazen farklılaştırılır ya da kelimelere farklı anlamlar yüklenir. Dili ve özelde de kelimeleri kullanarak dış politika üretmeye ve uygulamaya çalışmak, rastlanılan bir durumdur. Ancak, bu durum, bazen çeşitli dış politika sorunlarına da neden olabilmektedir. Türk dış politikasında da benzer uygulamalar ve sorunların varlığı, zaman zaman söz konusudur. Adlandırma, ad değiştirme, farklı adlandırma, olumsuz adlandırma, adını farklı telaffuz etme, adını anmama, bu konuda taktiklere örnektirler. Bu çalışmada, esas olarak, Türk dış politikasında yakın zamanda gündemde yer almış iki tartışma konusu ele alınmıştır. Bunlardan birincisi Suriye Devlet Başkanı “Beşir Esad”ın soyadının ne olduğu ya da nasıl telaffuz edileceği konusunda Türkiye’de yaşanan çok ciddi tartışmadır. Türkiye ile Suriye arasındaki ilişkiler bozulmaya başladıktan sonra, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan başta olmak üzere bir kesim, “Esad” yerine “Esed” kelimesini kullanmayı tercih etmiştir. İkincisi ise, terör örgütü “IŞİD”in (Irak Şam İslam Devleti) adı konusunda olmuştur. Daha önce IŞİD adıyla anılan örgüt, sonraları Recep Tayyip Erdoğan başta olmak üzere, büyük bir kesim tarafından DEAŞ, DAİŞ, DAEŞ gibi adlarla ifade edilmeye başlanmıştır. Bu yaklaşımın temel nedeni, terör örgütünün adında yer alan “İslam” kelimesinin kullanılmak istenmemesi olmuştur. Konu hakkında, iki saptama yapılabilir. Birinci olarak, Türkiye’de yapılan tartışmalar, Türkiye dışında yapılanlardan ve Türkiye’nin dışarıyla yaptıklarından daha fazladır. İkinci olarak ise, dile yapılan müdahaleler, kelimelerle oynamalar, istenilen sonuçları vermemiştir.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, Islamic State, and Language
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

174. The Israeli Elections Just Got Interesting: Netanyahu’s Indictment and the New Center Left Alliance

Author:: Josh Dean
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: A little over a month ago, I wrote of an atmosphere of resignation in Israel among Netanyahu’s political opponents leading up to the Israeli parliamentary elections on April 9th. The smattering of center-left parties seeking to rival Netanyahu’s Likud at the ballot box were divided across a range of tickets, unable to put their egos aside and form a joint bloc capable of presenting a veritable challenge to the incumbent prime minister. The long-reigning Israeli leader’s tenure looked, therefore, set to extend even further. The question was not who will be the next prime minister, but rather “Who will be the next Bibi [Netanyahu]?” as Israeli comedian Tom Aharon quipped. But a lot can change in a day of Israeli politics, never mind a month. As political alliances shift rapidly, the announcement of Netanyahu’s indictment on fraud and corruption charges has further destabilized the already-turbulent atmosphere leading up to the April elections.
Topic:: Corruption, Politics, Law, and Elections
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

175. The politics of hope: a nation’s patience tested

Author:: Ali Tehrani and Azadeh Pourzand
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: Winter 2019 marked the 40th anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran. The anniversary celebrations occurred in the midst of a difficult era of socio-economic turmoil, the return ofَ U.S. sanctions, and deepening political infighting in the Islamic Republic. Tensions between the government and the people are especially high. The tectonic plates of social change have been shifting below the surface in Iran over the past two decades, with major discontent erupting in the past year. While the country’s political facade appears largely unchanged, tensions and fragmentations among the ruling elite have deepened. Economic conditions are fast deteriorating for the average citizen, while political repression remains a harsh reality. Iran’s citizens, who have clung to hope and the possibility for change through decades of domestic repression and isolation from the global economy, struggle to remain hopeful. Collective fatigue stemming from years of isolation from the global economy, as well as domestic economic hardship, compounds the disappointment Iranians feel from unfulfilled political promises. The Iranian government has repeatedly failed to carry out promised reforms; in recent years alone, President Hassan Rouhani has proven unable to carry out his promises to “open up Iran politically, ease rigid social restrictions and address human rights abuses.” As this situation continues, Iran risks despair and chaos.
Topic:: Government, Politics, Social Movement, Sanctions, Nuclear Power, Reform, Economy, and Memory
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

176. Event Review: Critique, Dissent, and Solidarity--the Politics of Modern Middle Eastern Art

Author:: Asma Elgamal
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: Described as one of the “greatest fusers of politics and art,” Sultan Sooud al-Qassemi has spent much of his life studying – and talking about – Arab art. Between founding the Barjeel Art Foundation, an Emirati-based initiative that collects and preserves Arab art, to live-tweeting the events of the Arab-spring to millions of Twitter users, al-Qassemi has a reputation for breaking silence on topics most members of an Arab royal family would be reluctant to touch. On February 7th, at an event hosted by the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Security, al-Qassemi gave a talk entitled “Politics of Modern Middle Eastern Art” in which he explored the greatest hits of modern political Arab art.
Topic:: Politics, History, Arts, and Culture
Political Geography:: Middle East and Gulf Nations

177. America’s Yemen Policy

Author:: William A. Rugh
Publication Date:: 02-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: Despite the focus on the results of the Yemeni conflict, its underlying causes have not been very well understood. It is a complicated story but this essay seeks to highlight three important factors behind the current turmoil in Yemen that are often overlooked. First, the country has major domestic divisions that are the primary reasons for the conflict in the first place. Second, Saudi direct intervention in Yemen is nothing new and is motivated by Saudi leadership’s strong views about the country. Third, American policy toward Yemen has more to do with Saudi Arabia and the region than with Yemen itself.
Topic:: Civil War, Cold War, Diplomacy, Politics, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East, Soviet Union, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

178. Terrorism: Agreeing on the Basics

Author:: Ophir Falk
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: Today, after years of modern terrorism and counterterrorism, the international community still does not agree on a single definition of terrorism. Despite the daily threats posed to many states, the definition conundrum prevents an agreed classification that could better facilitate the fight against terrorism and thwart the public legitimacy that most terrorist organizations seek. When a problem is accurately and acceptably defined, it should be easier to solve. Terrorism is an overly used term often heard in different discourses and contexts. It is used by the general public and in the course of academic, political, and legal debates, not to mention constantly referenced in the media. It may not be feasible to verse one universal definition for all discourses, but the term’s key criteria can and should be agreed upon.
Topic:: International Law, Politics, Terrorism, Military Affairs, Violence, Hezbollah, and White Supremacy
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America

179. Women’s Participation in High-Level Decision Making

Author:: Itır Akdoğan
Publication Date:: 04-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: In this report, we enquire into the issue of gender equality by investigating different sectors at once to offer recommendations for improvement. In this project, which is supported by the Swedish Consulate General in İstanbul, we first examine, in light of data gathered and disseminated by European Institute for Gender Equality (EIGE), the percentage of women high-level decision makers in Turkey’s politics, public administration, local government, civil society organizations, social partners, business, media, judiciary and education/science/research. We compare these rates in their historical transformation and with the rates of European Union countries, thus inspecting them in their wider quantitative context. Next, we conduct in-depth interviews with women (if not present, men) high-level decision makers in these areas to carry out a qualitative assessment of women’s participation in Turkey.
Topic:: Civil Society, Gender Issues, Politics, Women, and Inequality
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and European Union

180. Starvation, Diplomacy and Ruthless Friends: The Yemen Annual Review 2018

Author:: Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: The Yemen Review – launched in June 2016 as ‘Yemen at the UN’ – is a monthly publication produced by the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies. It aims to identify and assess current diplomatic, economic, political, military, security, humanitarian and human rights developments related to Yemen. The Yemen Annual Review is a synthesis of these monthly publications that also accounts for, and provides analysis of, the broader dynamics that occurred throughout the previous 12 months. In producing The Yemen Review, Sana’a Center staff throughout Yemen and around the world gather information, conduct research, hold private meetings with local, regional, and international stakeholders, and analyze the domestic and international context surrounding developments in and regarding Yemen. This monthly series is designed to provide readers with a contextualized insight into the country’s most important ongoing issues.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Politics, United Nations, Food Security, Economy, Currency, UN Security Council, Houthis, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Middle East and Yemen

181. Stockholm Agreement Meets Yemeni Reality – The Yemen Review, January 2019

Author:: Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:: 02-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: The Yemen Review Launched in June 2016, The Yemen Review – formerly known as Yemen at the UN – is a monthly publication produced by the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies. It aims to identify and assess current diplomatic, economic, political, military, security, humanitarian and human rights developments related to Yemen. In producing The Yemen Review, Sana’a Center staff throughout Yemen and around the world gather information, conduct research, hold private meetings with local, regional, and international stakeholders, and analyze the domestic and international context surrounding developments in and regarding Yemen. This monthly series is designed to provide readers with a contextualized insight into the country’s most important ongoing issues.
Topic:: Politics, United Nations, Economy, Conflict, and Military
Political Geography:: Middle East and Yemen

182. The UN’s Stockholm Syndrome – The Yemen Review, March 2019

Author:: Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:: 04-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: The Yemen Review Launched in June 2016, The Yemen Review – formerly known as Yemen at the UN – is a monthly publication produced by the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies. It aims to identify and assess current diplomatic, economic, political, military, security, humanitarian and human rights developments related to Yemen. In producing The Yemen Review, Sana’a Center staff throughout Yemen and around the world gather information, conduct research, hold private meetings with local, regional, and international stakeholders, and analyze the domestic and international context surrounding developments in and regarding Yemen. This monthly series is designed to provide readers with a contextualized insight into the country
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Politics, United Nations, Economy, Conflict, and Military
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and United States of America

183. Game of Parliaments – The Yemen Review, April 2019

Author:: Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: The Yemen Review Launched in June 2016, The Yemen Review – formerly known as Yemen at the UN – is a monthly publication produced by the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies. It aims to identify and assess current diplomatic, economic, political, military, security, humanitarian and human rights developments related to Yemen. In producing The Yemen Review, Sana’a Center staff throughout Yemen and around the world gather information, conduct research, hold private meetings with local, regional, and international stakeholders, and analyze the domestic and international context surrounding developments in and regarding Yemen. This monthly series is designed to provide readers with a contextualized insight into the country’s most important ongoing issues.
Topic:: Security, Human Rights, Politics, United Nations, Economy, Conflict, and Military
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Yemen, and United States of America

184. An Environmental Apocalypse Looming on the Red Sea — The Yemen Review, May 2019

Author:: Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: The Yemen Review Launched in June 2016, The Yemen Review – formerly known as Yemen at the UN – is a monthly publication produced by the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies. It aims to identify and assess current diplomatic, economic, political, military, security, humanitarian and human rights developments related to Yemen. In producing The Yemen Review, Sana’a Center staff throughout Yemen and around the world gather information, conduct research, hold private meetings with local, regional, and international stakeholders, and analyze the domestic and international context surrounding developments in and regarding Yemen. This monthly series is designed to provide readers with a contextualized insight into the country’s most important ongoing issues.
Topic:: Security, Environment, Human Rights, Politics, Treaties and Agreements, Economy, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Yemen, United States of America, and Red Sea

185. Drone Wars – The Yemen Review, June 2019

Author:: Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:: 07-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: The Yemen Review Launched in June 2016, The Yemen Review – formerly known as Yemen at the UN – is a monthly publication produced by the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies. It aims to identify and assess current diplomatic, economic, political, military, security, humanitarian and human rights developments related to Yemen. In producing The Yemen Review, Sana’a Center staff throughout Yemen and around the world gather information, conduct research, hold private meetings with local, regional, and international stakeholders, and analyze the domestic and international context surrounding developments in and regarding Yemen. This monthly series is designed to provide readers with a contextualized insight into the country’s most important ongoing issues.
Topic:: Security, Humanitarian Aid, Politics, United Nations, Economy, and Military
Political Geography:: Middle East, Yemen, and United States of America

186. An Interim Capital of Carnage – The Yemen Review, July 2019

Author:: Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:: 04-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: The Yemen Review Launched in June 2016, The Yemen Review – formerly known as Yemen at the UN – is a monthly publication produced by the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies. It aims to identify and assess current diplomatic, economic, political, military, security, humanitarian and human rights developments related to Yemen. In producing The Yemen Review, Sana’a Center staff throughout Yemen and around the world gather information, conduct research, hold private meetings with local, regional, and international stakeholders, and analyze the domestic and international context surrounding developments in and regarding Yemen. This monthly series is designed to provide readers with a contextualized insight into the country’s most important ongoing issues.
Topic:: Security, Humanitarian Aid, Politics, United Nations, Conflict, and Military
Political Geography:: Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and United States of America

187. The Southern Implosion – The Yemen Review, August 2019

Author:: Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: The Yemen Review Launched in June 2016, The Yemen Review – formerly known as Yemen at the UN – is a monthly publication produced by the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies. It aims to identify and assess current diplomatic, economic, political, military, security, humanitarian and human rights developments related to Yemen. In producing The Yemen Review, Sana’a Center staff throughout Yemen and around the world gather information, conduct research, hold private meetings with local, regional, and international stakeholders, and analyze the domestic and international context surrounding developments in and regarding Yemen. This monthly series is designed to provide readers with a contextualized insight into the country’s most important ongoing issues.
Topic:: Security, Human Rights, Humanitarian Aid, Politics, United Nations, Economy, Conflict, and Military
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, and Yemen

188. Aramco’s Ashoura – The Yemen Review, September 2019

Author:: Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: The Yemen Review Launched in June 2016, The Yemen Review – formerly known as Yemen at the UN – is a monthly publication produced by the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies. It aims to identify and assess current diplomatic, economic, political, military, security, humanitarian and human rights developments related to Yemen. In producing The Yemen Review, Sana’a Center staff throughout Yemen and around the world gather information, conduct research, hold private meetings with local, regional, and international stakeholders, and analyze the domestic and international context surrounding developments in and regarding Yemen. This monthly series is designed to provide readers with a contextualized insight into the country’s most important ongoing issues.
Topic:: Security, Human Rights, Politics, United Nations, Economy, Conflict, Houthis, and Military
Political Geography:: Middle East, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia

189. The Rise and the Future of Militias in the MENA Region

Author:: Ranj Alaaldin, Federica Saini Fasanotti, Arturo Varvelli, and Tarik M. Yousef
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: In recent decades, militias and sub-national armed groups have played a decisive role in politics and security in the MENA region. Their prominence with local and outside actors in areas where state institutions have collapsed presents multiple policy challenges. Armed groups have access to substantial resources and in some cases enjoy considerable local legitimacy. That makes them formidable but also resilient forces. This is why their suppression – through coercive measures or marginalization – can bring more costs than benefits to already fragile state institutions and exhausted populations. This volume addresses the void in the current debate on subnational armed groups, focusing particularly on the multiple ongoing conflicts and turmoil in the MENA region. It places a particular emphasis on whether armed groups can be integrated into state-building initiatives and whether they can play a constructive role with other key actors.
Topic:: Security, Politics, Non State Actors, Armed Forces, Legitimacy, and Militias
Political Geography:: Middle East and North Africa

190. Youth Politics in the Middle East and North Africa

Author:: Sean Yom, Wael ak-Khatib, Begum Uzun, Matt Gordner, Giulia Cimini, Yousra Kadi, Dina El-Sharnouby, Sarah Fischer, Aziza Moneer, Curtis R. Ryan, Sara Ababneh, Yazan Doughan, Aydin Ozipek, Makiko Nambu, Sarah A. Tobin, Justin Gengler, and Sarah Anne Rennick
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:: Youth political activism has been challenging Middle East and North African political systems frequently and forcefully over the last decade. This is not a new phenomenon, of course. Young people have historically stood at the forefront of popular uprisings and cultural movements. Demographic realities in the Middle East have increased the latent potential for disruptive youth activism. Nearly 60 percent of people in the region fall under the age of 30, half of whom are aged between 15 and 29, and in almost every country, unemployment for working-age youth exceeds the overall jobless rate. The failures of the 2011 Arab uprisings to achieve lasting democratic change revealed the limits of street protests, but the underlying problems remain profoundly unresolved. How are young people questioning, subverting, and transforming the boundaries of politics in the post-uprising Middle East and North Africa? In June 2019, the Project on Middle East Political Science convened a workshop on youth politics in Amman, Jordan, in cooperation with the Phenix Center for Economic and Informatics Studies. The workshop’s papers and deliberations sought to unpack the meaning of youth politics. What characterizes the latest wave of youth mobilization? How is youth activism, and youth politics, changing public attitudes and government policies? Can any generalizations be made about youthfulness, and the experience of being young and political, in the Middle East today? The essays contained in POMEPS Studies 36: Youth Politics in the Middle East and North Africa attempt to answer these questions. They come from scholars who, through intensive fieldwork in varying countries, study the origins and processes of activism among young people through diverse methodologies and orientations.
Topic:: Politics, Political Activism, Women, Youth, Protests, Sexual Violence, and Revolution
Political Geography:: Sudan, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, North Africa, Jordan, Morocco, and Tunisia

191. Shifting Global Politics and the Middle East

Author:: Marc Lynch and Amaney Jamal
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:: What is the current structure of international relations, and how does this shape the politics of the Middle East? For decades, the answer was clear: international structure was unipolar, and American predominance shaped the alliance choices of both its allies and its adversaries. In recent years, this clarity has been overtaken by confusion. American primacy has perhaps declined, or at least shifted in its application, but no rival power has yet risen to take its place. How has this perceived change in global structure affected regional politics in the Middle East? In October 2018, POMEPS, Princeton University’s Bobst Center, and the American University of Beirut brought together nearly two dozen scholars from the United States, Europe and the Middle East at AUB to discuss the impact of shifting global structure on regional dynamics. This collection features sixteen essays ranging across diverse perspectives on the evolving relationship between the global and the regional. Taken together, they offer a fascinating window into the relationship between the global and the regional, and the implications for contemporary regional politics.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Diplomacy, Politics, Poverty, Power Politics, European Union, Partnerships, Inequality, Brexit, Arab Spring, Alliance, Conflict, Transatlantic Relations, Donald Trump, and Regional Power
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Syria, North America, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

192. Kuwait: A Changing System Under Stress

Author:: Kristian Coates Ulrichsen and Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The Washington Institute has been sponsoring a series of discussions about sudden succession in the Middle East. Each session focuses on scenarios that might unfold if a specific ruler or leader departed the scene tomorrow. Questions include these: Would the sudden change lead to different policies? Would it affect the stability of the respective countries involved, or the region as a whole? What would be the impact on U.S. interests? Would the manner of a leader's departure make a difference? The discussions also probe how the U.S. government might adjust to the new situation or influence outcomes. This essay, seventh in the series, discusses Kuwait, a small, oil-rich country surrounded by big neighbors with which relations have often been uneasy. Its leader, Emir Sabah al-Ahmad al-Sabah, is ninety years old and apparently in fragile health. His immediate heir, half-brother Nawaf, is not much younger at eighty-two. More important, perhaps, Nawaf lacks the current emir's adeptness as a diplomat. In a Gulf region experiencing sharp tensions, Sabah's exit will remove a much-needed node of stability. Whoever ultimately takes the helm will have a substantial legacy to uphold.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, Succession, and Monarchy
Political Geography:: Middle East, Kuwait, and Gulf Nations

193. The Crisis of Violence in Israeli Arab Society

Author:: Edy Cohen
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
Abstract:: Arab politicians blame the Israeli establishment for the rampaging violence in Israeli Arab society, but ignore the underlying problems in their own sociopolitical culture that foster that violence.
Topic:: Demographics, Politics, Law Enforcement, and Violence
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

194. Berlin: Capital of European Antisemitism

Author:: Manfred Gerstenfeld
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
Abstract:: Berlin has surpassed Malmö as Europe’s antisemitism capital, with a wide variety of anti-Jewish and anti-Israel attitudes on display. They include dozens of cases of physical aggression against Jews, including rabbis. Jewish pupils have had to leave public schools. Thirty-five percent of Berliners view Israelis as analogous to Nazis. An Al-Quds Day march takes place annually that calls for the destruction of Israel. Both the municipality and the federal government are two-faced about the problem of antisemitism.
Topic:: Politics, Judaism, Ideology, and Anti-Semitism
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Germany

195. Political Islam Is Declining in the Middle East

Author:: Hillel Frisch
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
Abstract:: The lack of a reaction to the death of former Egyptian president Muhammad Morsi and the absence of religious demands by protesters in Algeria, Sudan, and Iraq suggest that political Islam is waning after the defeat of ISIS three years ago.
Topic:: Islam, Politics, and Protests
Political Geography:: Africa, Iraq, Sudan, Middle East, and Algeria

196. A Geopolitical Crossfire: Al-Azhar Struggles to Balance Politics and Tradition

Author:: James M Dorsey
Publication Date:: 08-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
Abstract:: When Pope Francis I visited Egypt in 2017 to stimulate interfaith dialogue he walked into a religious and geopolitical minefield at the heart of which was Al-Azhar, one of the world’s oldest and foremost seats of Islamic learning. The pope’s visit took on added significance with Al-Azhar standing accused of promoting the kind of ultra-conservative Sunni Muslim Islam that potentially creates an environment conducive to breeding extremism.
Topic:: Islam, Politics, Religion, Violent Extremism, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Middle East, North Africa, and Egypt

197. The Political Situation in Iraq in Light of Mass Protests

Author:: Sara Nowacka
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: In October, mass protests over poor living conditions and Iran’s influence on the country’s internal policy erupted in Iraq. Brutal attempts to quell the demonstrations led to the escalation of violence. On 30 November, Prime Minister Adil Abd al-Mahdi resigned, which was one of the demands of the demonstrators supported by the prominent Shiite spiritual leader in Iraq Ali al-Sistani. The PM’s resignation, the proposal of reforms put forward by the president of Iraq, and the UN plan to stabilise the country backed by Sistani indicate the possibility of abolishing the model of consensual democracy prevailing in Iraq.
Topic:: Corruption, Politics, Elections, and Protests
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, and Middle East

198. Consolidating Influence: Reasons Behind Appointing Sadeq Larijani to Head the Expediency Council

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The decision taken by Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, on December 30, 2018, to appoint the head of the judiciary, Sadeq Amoli Larijani, a head of the Expediency Council, to replace Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi, who died about a week earlier, was not a surprise to the political forces and movements in Iran for several reasons. The most important of them are the regime’s commitments to rotate key positions over the past four decades, coupled with the changes in political power balances ensuing from the internal political crises, which are exacerbated by US sanctions and pressures. These are set to re-entrench the influence of the fundamentalist conservatives close to the Supreme Leader’s establishment, which suggests that the coming period may see further steps aimed at broadening the influence of this movement on the political decision-making process.
Topic:: Government, Politics, and Hassan Rouhani
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Tehran

199. The Politics of Lebanon’s Economic Collapse

Author:: Paul Rivlin
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: In the current issue of Iqtisadi, Paul Rivlin discusses the economic conditions that led to the current protest movement in Lebanon, focusing on the origins and impact of the banking crisis and how it relates to the political system.
Topic:: Politics, Financial Crisis, Economy, and Protests
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

200. Examining Newly-Formed Mixed Arab-Jewish Municipal Coalitions

Author:: Alexander Jacob Shapiro
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: Alexander Jacob Shapiro analyzes the circumstances surrounding the establishment of a joint Arab-Jewish municipal coalition in Lod following the recent municipal elections.
Topic:: Politics, Elections, and Alliance
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS