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32. The West and the Muslim Brotherhood After the Arab Spring
- Author:
- Lorenzo Vidino
- Publication Date:
- 02-2013
- Content Type:
- Book
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute
- Abstract:
- Few observers foresaw the Arab Spring, but it should not have surprised anyone that the Islamist movements - the most organized movements in the Arab world - became the main beneficiaries of the turmoil that ensued. Islamism, in its gradualist and pragmatic approach embodied by the Muslim Brotherhood and its offshoots worldwide, seems ready to reap the rewards of its three decades-old decision to abandon violence and focus on grassroots activities. This monumental change has created many concerns among liberals, religious minorities and, more generally, all non-Islamists in the countries where Islamists have won. In addition, Arab states ruled by non-Islamist regimes have expressed concern. The former worry that Islamist ideology - even in its more contemporary, pragmatic form - remains deeply divisive and anti-democratic, often at odds with their values and interests. The latter believe that on foreign policy issues, most of the positions of various Brotherhood-inspired parties are on a collision course with the policies of established regimes in the region.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Political Violence, Islam, Self Determination, Political Activism, Elections, and Democracy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Egypt
33. Turkey and Syrian Refugees: The Limits of Hospitality
- Author:
- Elizabeth Ferris, Osman Bahadir Dinçer, Vittoria Federici, Sema Karaca, Kemal Kirisci, and Elif Özmenek Çarmikli
- Publication Date:
- 11-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Strategic Research Organization (USAK)
- Abstract:
- On April 29, 2011, the first Syrian refugees crossed the border into Turkey. Two years later, the country hosts some 600,000 Syrian refugees—200,000 of them living in 21 refugee camps with an additional 400,000 living outside of the camps (see charts 1 and 2 below). These estimates, reported by both the Turkish government and the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), are conservative. Indeed, officials working directly with refugees on the ground suggest that the number living outside of the camps may be as high as 800,000.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Humanitarian Aid, Islam, Migration, and Sectarianism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, and Syria
34. The Assad Regime: From Counterinsurgency To Civil War
- Author:
- Joseph Holliday
- Publication Date:
- 03-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- The conflict in Syria transitioned from an insurgency to a civil war during the summer of 2012. For the first year of the conflict, Bashar al-Assad relied on his father's counterinsurgency approach; however, Bashar al-Assad's campaign failed to put down the 2011 revolution and accelerated the descent into civil war. This report seeks to explain how the Assad regime lost its counterinsurgency campaign, but remains well situated to fight a protracted civil war against Syria's opposition.
- Topic:
- Political Violence and Armed Struggle
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
35. The Middle East: Change and Upheaval 2013
- Author:
- Dr. Mohammad-Mahmoud Ould Mohamedou, Christian Koch, and Dr. Klejda Mulaj
- Publication Date:
- 12-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- As the Middle East continues to grapple with challenging questions of continuity and change, a group of distinguished thinkers on the region's politics and society met in Gstaad, Switzerland, to analyze current political dynamics and their implications for the region and beyond. This 11th Annual Conference organized jointly by the Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP), the Crown Centre for Middle East Studies at Brandeis University, and the Gulf Research Center (GRC) aimed to take stock of developments in the Middle East over the previous year and bring about a greater understanding of the complex problems faced by a perplexingly disordered region. Following on the 10th meeting in 2012, the primary focus of the discussion was on the Arab revolutions, their overall significance and outlook as well as their impact in the region with a specific emphasis on Syria, Egypt, Lebanon, and Jordan. In addition, Iran's domestic politics and its international security implications; the GCC states and their place in the broader Middle East; as well as Israeli-Palestinian relations also featured prominently. The meeting opened by looking at the broader geopolitical and regional dynamics and concluded with a session considering policy implications in relation to present regional political dynamics. This report summarizes discussions held in the course of this meeting and in the tradition of previous reports on this Conference series, no direct, personal attributions are made herein. The Conference's program is attached.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Governance, and Political Activism
- Political Geography:
- Geneva, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, Syria, Switzerland, and Egypt
36. Beyond Spillover: Syria's Role in Lebanon's Drift Toward Political Violence
- Author:
- Faysal Itani and Sarah Grebowkski
- Publication Date:
- 07-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- To describe the increase in violence and instability in Lebanon since the civil war in Syria began as simply a spillover is misleading. it risks casting Lebanon as a victim to negative externalities divorced from its own political dysfunction. in truth, Lebanon's troubles long preceded the war in Syria, and the conflict's more complex and pernicious effect on Lebanon has been the exposure and deepening of pre-existing rifts among Lebanese.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Human Rights, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Refugee Issues
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria
37. Violence in Iraq: The Growing Risk of Serious Civil Conflict
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman and Sam Khazai
- Publication Date:
- 09-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Iraq is a nation with great potential and its political divisions and ongoing low - level violence do not mean it cannot succeed in establishing stability, security, and a better life for its people . Iraq cannot succeed, however, by denying its growing level of violence and the responsibility of Iraq's current political leaders for its problems.
- Topic:
- Political Violence and Fragile/Failed State
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia
38. The Underlying Causes of Stability and Unrest in the Middle East and North Africa: An Analytic Survey
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman, Nicholas S. Yarosh, and Chloe Coughlin-Schulte
- Publication Date:
- 08-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The political dynamics and violence that shape the current series of crises in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) – and daily events in Bahrain Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Libya, Tunisia, Syria, and Yemen – dominate the current course of virtually every aspect of these states including much of the current course of violence and instability in the region. Political dynamics and the current levels of, however, are only part of the story.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Democratization, Development, Economics, and Islam
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Arabia, North Africa, Lebanon, Syria, Egypt, Bahrain, and Tunisia
39. Make or Break: Iraq's Sunnis and the State
- Publication Date:
- 08-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The question of Sunni Arab participation in Iraq's political order that has plagued the transition since its inception is as acute and explosive as ever. Quickly marginalised by an ethno-sectarian apportionment that confined them to minority status in a system dominated by Shiites and Kurds, most community members first shunned the new dispensation then fought it. Having gradually turned from insurgency to tentative political involvement, their wager produced only nominal representation, while reinforcing feelings of injustice and discrimination. Today, with frustration at a boil, unprecedented Sunni-Shiite polarisation in the region and deadly car bombings surging across the country since the start of Ramadan in July, a revived sectarian civil war is a serious risk. To avoid it, the government should negotiate local ceasefires with Sunni officials, find ways to more fairly integrate Sunni Arabs in the political process and cooperate with local actors to build an effective security regime along the Syrian border.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Political Economy, Terrorism, Fragile/Failed State, and Sectarian violence
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia
40. Transitional Justice for Syria
- Author:
- Nicholas Rostow
- Publication Date:
- 09-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- Transitional justice is the provision of justice in the transition from one form of government, often perceived as illegitimate, unjust, and tyrannical, or an anarchic society, to one that observes the rule of law and administers justice. It also is about choices: how to allocate scarce prosecutorial, judicial, police, and prison resources. The goal is to make the rule of law ordinary. A 2004 report of the United Nations (UN) Secretary-General on the rule of law and transitional justice in conflict and postconflict societies observed that most examples of transitional justice involved states emerging from civil war or widespread civil unrest such that government became impossible.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Islam, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, United Nations, and Syria