Political Geography: Middle East / Journal:

3201. Making Saudi Arabia Fun Again?

Author:: Salman al-Dosari, Aziza al-Manea, 'Adel Khamis al-Zahrani, Hind al-Mutairi, and Abdulrahman al-Rashed
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: The General Entertainment Authority was created last year as part of Saudi Arabia’s “Vision 2030” plan. The primary goal of Vision 2030 is to diversify Saudi Arabia’s oil-dependent economy, but it also aims to foster a “vibrant society” with “meaningful entertainment for citizens.” Public cinemas are banned in the kingdom, and some Saudis seek diversion abroad, often in nearby Bahrain and Dubai. So far, the General Entertainment Authority has provoked a mixed reaction: some have lauded its work to bring more cultural events to Saudi Arabia, while others accuse it of moving too quickly, and not offering enough options to less wealthy Saudis. Here are excerpts of what five Saudi pundits had to say about the issue.
Topic:: Culture, Reform, Media, News Analysis, and Leisure
Political Geography:: Middle East, Saudi Arabia, and Gulf Nations

3202. To Assad and his admirers, Trump offers ‘hope and change’

Author:: Mahdi Dakhlallah, Imad Salim, Tahseen al-Halabi, and Bashar al-Assad
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: During the presidential campaign, Trump said he “[doesn’t] like Assad at all” and described the Syrian leader as “a bad guy.” But he compared Assad favorably to the alternatives. “Assad is killing ISIS,” Trump stated, whereas “we don’t even know who they [the rebels] are.” Trump even claimed Assad to be “much tougher and much smarter” than political rivals Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Unsurprisingly, Assad and his admirers took heart in Trump’s surprise victory last November, with an adviser to the Syrian president saying the American people had “sent a great, a very important message to the world.” Yet Assad supporters – as well as the Syrian president himself – are taking a cautious approach to the new US administration, unsure of whether, and to what extent, Trump will overhaul American foreign policy. Here’s what columnists in pro-Assad media outlets think about Trump’s implications for Syria, followed by excerpts from two interviews with Assad about the new US president.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, War, Elections, News Analysis, Trump, and Syrian War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Syria, North America, and United States of America

3203. Wikipedia is the latest victim of Turkey’s information blackout

Author:: JMEPP
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: Wikipedia, the online encyclopedia, has become the latest victim of the Turkish government’s crackdown on press freedoms. Turkey’s Information Technologies and Communications Authority (BTK) did not give an explanation for last week’s ban. But the blocking of Wikipedia came as little surprise in Turkey, whose citizens have experienced sporadic blackouts of social media sites since May 2013.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Internet, Social Media, Freedom of Expression, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

3204. The glass half empty: Water in the Middle East

Author:: JMEPP
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: Climate change is affecting us all – but some parts of the world will probably bear a far bigger burden than others. A recent study published in the journal Climate Change shows that rising temperatures in the Middle East and North Africa are likely to exceed 2 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, even if the global mean temperature remains below this threshold.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Natural Resources, and Water
Political Geography:: Middle East, North Africa, and Gulf Nations

3205. Tunisia: “Unemployment has killed me”

Author:: JMEPP
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: The Tunisian revolution of 2010-11 has been understood as a point of rupture after years of worsening job prospects and living standards in the country. Some have claimed it highlighted the inefficacy of Tunisia’s development policies, while other studies saw a link between high rates of literacy, lack of economic opportunities, and protests against the state. One should, however, be cautious of taking an economically deterministic approach to Tunisia’s uprising. Many countries whose citizens are mired in deep poverty and rampant unemployment are not in a state of revolt. Other factors such as pre-existing social networks (like trade unions and family ties) also play a major role in shaping political events. Furthermore, economic statistics in North African countries, such as Tunisia, are often manipulated for political reasons.
Topic:: Politics, Poverty, Popular Revolt, Reform, Economy, and Protests
Political Geography:: Middle East, North Africa, and Tunisia

3206. Uncertain allies: the Jerusalem announcement amid shifting regional priorities

Author:: Andrew McIndoe
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: On 6 December the Trump administration made an unprecedented decision to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. The announcement, which both recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and conveyed President Trump’s intention to relocate the United States’ embassy to the Holy City, is a move shrouded in obscure motivations. Was it a manifestation of the strongly pro-Israel orientation of the new government? Was it merely the fulfilment of a campaign promise, a sop to the president’s evangelical and pro-Israel support base? Or was it truly designed, as the President maintained, to reenergize a peace process that has been stuck in the mud for years?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Peace Studies, Trump, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Jerusalem, and United States of America

3207. Power play: The United Arab Emirates’ new approach to geopolitics

Author:: JMEPP
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: Power – be it tangible, intangible, natural, military, or economic – shapes the capacities of the state and its role within the international system. The Middle East is no exception to this realist reading of international affairs. The Arab Spring, the Syrian conflict, the war in Yemen and the Iranian nuclear deal have all created a battleground, often quite literally, for state power interests to compete with one another. How are these power configurations linked to identity? The United States sees itself as a stronghold of liberal democracy, Japan as the quintessential trading nation, and Switzerland is comfortably ensconced in its 200-year-old neutralism. This “sense of self,” or who states are, shapes and defines what they do. Power and identity routinely mould and inform each other. For a country like the United Arab Emirates, described by many analysts as a middle, regional, or rising power, these questions hold particular relevance as the UAE reshapes its position in the world.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Power Politics, Soft Power, Identities, and State
Political Geography:: Middle East, United Arab Emirates, and Gulf Nations

3208. Militarizing the Nation: The Army, Business, and Revolution in Egypt

Author:: Zeinab Abdul-Magd
Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Book
Institution:: Columbia University Press
Abstract:: Egypt's army portrays itself as a faithful guardian "saving the nation." Yet saving the nation has meant militarizing it. Zeinab Abul-Magd examines both the visible and often invisible efforts by Egypt's semi-autonomous military to hegemonize the country's politics, economy, and society over the past six decades. The Egyptian army has adapted to and benefited from crucial moments of change. It weathered the transition to socialism in the 1960s, market consumerism in the 1980s, and neoliberalism from the 1990s onward, all while enhancing its political supremacy and expanding a mammoth business empire. Most recently, the military has fought back two popular uprisings, retained full power in the wake of the Arab Spring, and increased its wealth. While adjusting to these shifts, military officers have successfully transformed urban milieus into ever-expanding military camps. These spaces now host a permanent armed presence that exercises continuous surveillance over everyday life. Egypt's military business enterprises have tapped into the consumer habits of the rich and poor alike, reaping unaccountable profits and optimizing social command. Using both a political economy approach and a Foucauldian perspective, Militarizing the Nation traces the genealogy of the Egyptian military for those eager to know how such a controversial power gains and maintains control.
Topic:: Government, Military Affairs, and Arab Spring
Political Geography:: Middle East and Egypt
Publication Identifier:: 9780231542807
Publication Identifier Type:: ISBN

3209. Water as a basic human right within the Israeli-Palestinian con ict

Author:: Erika Weinthal
Publication Date:: 10-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: In the Middle East, water often crosses political borders; because water is a shared resource, its effective management demands cooperation among different users. In the absence of cooperation, conflict is likely. Indeed, conflict and cooperation over shared water has defined Israeli-Palestinian relations since 1967 when Israel gained full control over the Eastern and recharge zone of the western Mountain aquifer, as well as the southern Coastal aquifer. These resources, combined with water from the Sea of Galilee have provided about 60% of Israel’s water consumption. With the occupation of the West Bank and Gaza Strip in 1967, Israel placed restrictions on the drilling of new wells for the Palestinian population in the West Bank, and instead chose to supply water to Palestinian households through its national water company, Mekorot. The signing of the 1993 Declaration of Principles on Interim Self-Government Arrangements (Oslo I) and the 1995 Interim Agreement on the West Bank and Gaza Strip (Oslo II) between Israel and the Palestinian Liberation Organization offered an historic opportunity to move from conflict to cooperation over shared water resources. Unlike many other peace agreements, water was codified in the Oslo Accords, as it was understood that water sharing was of critical importance for human security, economic development, and regional cooperation. Specifically, the Oslo Accords called for the creation of a Joint Water Committee (JWC) during an interim period before the final status negotiations, comprised of equal number of members from Israel and the Palestinian Authority, whose functions would include the coordinated management of water resources and water and sewage systems in the West Bank. Oslo II, Article 40 on water and sewage recognized Palestinian water rights in the West Bank and the need to develop additional water supply. Oslo II also detailed specific water quantities to be allocated to the Palestinian population, mostly from the eastern Mountain aquifer in the West Bank.
Topic:: Development, Human Rights, Natural Resources, Water, Conflict, Negotiation, and Sanitation
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and West Bank

3210. The Evolving Terrorism Threat from Nixon to Trump

Author:: Edward Marks and Michael B. Kraft
Publication Date:: 09-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: The issues that faced the Obama administration and will face the Trump administration—as well as the basic policies and programs—had roots in previous generations, some of them going back to the 1970’s and President Richard Nixon’s administration. Many programs conceived and developed during previous administrations continued, evolved, and were expanded during subsequent administrations. These programs include antiterrorism training for American and foreign law enforcement officials, the interagency Counter Terrorism Financing (CTF) and Countering Violent Extremism (CVE) programs, and the ever pressing need for improved international cooperation and intelligence sharing. They are likely to continue, in one form or another, as ongoing efforts. This article is adapted from a draft of a forthcoming book: U.S Counterterrorism efforts, from Nixon to Bush. (CPC Press/Taylor&Francis Group).
Topic:: Science and Technology, History, Violent Extremism, Counter-terrorism, Islamic State, and 9/11
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, Syria, North America, and United States of America

3211. Making Peace in Syria: Economic Diplomacy

Author:: Abdallah Al Dardari
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: Aleppo is a landmark in the Syrian conflict and has become the strongest signal of the failure of the western approach to diplomacy and other means of influence to end the conflict. This failure calls for a dramatic change in the approach if we want to preserve Syria as one country, safeguard its diversity, and ensure the rebuilding of the nation. The moment fighting in Aleppo ends and the current government, along with the Russians and the Iranians, feel they have the upper hand in this conflict, the immediate goal and challenge is to rebuild. Yet, how do we deliver services and create jobs? How do we support reconstruction? How do we ensure stability after “military achievement”?
Topic:: Diplomacy, Economy, Political stability, Conflict, Syrian War, and Peace
Political Geography:: Russia, Iran, Middle East, Syria, and United States of America

3212. Authoritarian Backlash: A Comparison of Turkey & Venezuela

Author:: Robert Pearson
Publication Date:: 10-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: “Happy families are all alike; every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way.” This famous opening line from Leo Tolstoy’s Anna Karenina is important also for democracies. While Turkey and Venezuela are each unhappy in their own way, they also may share some common elements in their struggles for democracy that provide lessons.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Authoritarianism, Elections, Democracy, and Economy
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, South America, Venezuela, and United States of America

3213. Can Science Diplomacy Advance STEM Education Particularly for Women in the Middle East?

Author:: Steven G. Greenbaum and David P. Hajjar
Publication Date:: 06-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: In a world of diverse transnational priorities across the globe, the advancement of science is seen by many countries as a solution to promote a knowledge-based economy, yet few resources are actually committed to this policy. For example, countries in the Middle East face a range of social, political, economic and security challenges that are unparalleled in the world. Many of these countries are trying to manage their economies during declining oil and gas prices which have now had a negative impact on their ability to make local investments in science and technology. Unemployment is high, political upheaval is often at the core of civil war, and the last priority of government officials is the development of science and technology expertise. Except for Israel, most Middle East nations are underperforming in science in this region of the world where only 1% of their expenditures include research and development (R&D). Science diplomats and/or health attaches have tried to assist countries in the Middle East to address the short-falls in scientific and technological program development. These efforts have been welcomed, but the results have been marginal. One way to remedy the situation is for these countries to grow their scientific communities, and this includes the encouragement of a highly under-developed workforce, viz., women and ethnic minorities. Enabling this largely neglected and under-utilized intellectual resource to pursue careers in Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) is the focus of this article.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Education, Gender Issues, Science and Technology, and Women
Political Geography:: Middle East and United States of America

3214. Beyond the Basics: Holistic Humanitarian Assistance for Syrians

Author:: Margo Berends
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: Although Aleppo is now under the control of forces supporting the Syrian government and the city has been evacuated, it is but one city and the Syrian crisis is far from over. Millions have been displaced by the violence, either within Syria or across its borders, and the refugee crisis reverberates across the Middle East, Europe and beyond. While there has been much discussion of the refugee crisis, there has been limited coverage in mainstream American media of the needs of refugees and displaced people beyond the basics.
Topic:: Gender Issues, Humanitarian Aid, Non-Governmental Organization, Refugee Issues, Women, Displacement, and Public Policy
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Syria, Jordan, and United States of America

3215. We Are Here We Are Half The City We Live In

Author:: Esra Kaya Erdoğan
Publication Date:: 12-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: This policy brief is published in the framework of “Women’s Participation for Sustainable City” project under the umbrella project “Supporting Sustainable Cities” of TESEV funded by the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Liberty. No matter which measure of residential settlement one takes, women constitute around half the population everywhere in Turkey. Especially with regards urban areas with a smaller spatial scale, there is almost unanimous agreement that space-oriented policies concern women directly. It is important to keep these circumstances in mind in order to strengthen the political presence of women at the local level, and to pursue local policies with a woman-centered approach.
Topic:: Gender Issues, Governance, Women, Inequality, and Urban
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

3216. Equality Units As A Tool For Women’s Participation At The Local Level

Author:: Zelal Yalçın
Publication Date:: 12-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: This policy brief is published in the framework of “Women’s Participation for Sustainable City” project under the umbrella project “Supporting Sustainable Cities” of TESEV funded by the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Liberty.
Topic:: Gender Issues, Governance, Women, Inequality, and Urban
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

3217. Women in Municipalities, Municipality for Women

Author:: Ulaş Bayraktar
Publication Date:: 09-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: Regulatory reforms are not sufficient to increase the representation of women, examination of sociological causes is essential to better comprehend the reasons behind the low ratio of women representation. This report explores the relation between women representation and services provided for women in all metropolitan municipalities in Turkey. Both the gender roles and governance processes need to be analyzed together to understand this relationship. Furthermore, the quality of representation and services are examined in terms of gender awareness. While the findings of fieldwork in Aydın, Gaziantep, İstanbul, Konya and Ordu, and a detailed desk research of 11 cities identify the problems regarding gender awareness, they aim to provide concrete policy recommendations for future implementations.
Topic:: Gender Issues, Governance, Reform, Inequality, Representation, Urban, and Services
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

3218. Transitional Justice in the Middle East and North Africa

Author:: Center for International and Regional Studies
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for International and Regional Studies (CIRS), Georgetown University in Qatar
Abstract:: Following the ‘Arab Spring’ uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa, many had high hopes not only for democratization but also for transitional justice to address the myriad abuses that had taken place in the region, both during the uprisings and for decades prior to them. Despite these hopes, most of the transitions in the region have stalled, along with the possibility of transitional justice. This volume is the first to look at this process and brings together leading experts in the fields of human rights and transitional justice, and in the history, politics and justice systems of countries such as Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Algeria, Bahrain and Morocco. While these countries have diverse histories, political institutions, and experiences with accountability, most have experienced non-transition, stalled transition, or political manipulation of transitional justice measures, highlighting the limits of such mechanisms. These studies should inform reflection not only on the role of transitional justice in the region, but also on challenges to its operation more generally.
Topic:: Democratization, Human Rights, Law, and Arab Spring
Political Geography:: Middle East and North Africa

3219. After ISIS: How to Win the Peace in Iraq and Libya

Author:: Hayder al-Khoei, Ellie Geranmayeh, and Mattia Toaldo
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: ISIS has suffered significant setbacks in both Iraq and Libya with the battles for Mosul and Sirte representing potential turning-points. • Without a clear political strategy to guide post- ISIS efforts, these military gains could quickly be lost. Both countries could again become breeding grounds for conflict and extremism, exacerbating European security and migration challenges. This risk is especially high for Iraq given the conflict in neighbouring Syria. • The new US administration is likely to invest less energy than its predecessors in strengthening political orders which provide stability. European states must step up their own efforts
Topic:: International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:: Middle East and Global Focus

3220. The Kurds in a Volatile Middle East

Author:: Ofra Bengio
Publication Date:: 02-2017
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
Abstract:: The Kurds challenge the self-perceptions of the nation-states in which they reside: Turkey, Iran, Syria and Iraq; and they have played a crucial role in combatting Islamic State. This study analyzes the rivalry and interdependence among the four parts of Kurdistan as well as the dynamics of their relations with regional countries and the international community. With the entire region in a state of flux, will the Kurds fulfill their dream for a state or autonomous existence of their own?
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, War, Self Determination, Authoritarianism, and Democracy
Political Geography:: Middle East

3221. Qatar: The Limits of Nouveau Riche Diplomacy

Author:: Gil Feiler and Hayim Zeev
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
Abstract:: Under the leadership of Sheikh Hamad al-Thani (1995-2013), Qatar established itself as a regional mini superpower. It launched and subsidized the global media giant Al Jazeera, poured billions into its unrivalled liquefied natural gas infrastructure, made a successful bid for the 2022 FIFA World Cup, and diversified its economy through international acquisitions by its Qatari Investment Authority. This newfound wealth emboldened the emirate to attempt to broaden its diplomatic profile and extend its influence. And it is in this sphere that its maverick foreign policy, which at times spanned the world’s most fraught ideological lines, has led to increased tensions with its immediate neighbors and some unequivocal diplomatic disasters.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:: Middle East

3222. Khan Sheikhoun, Shayrat Air Base, and What Next?

Author:: Adam Garfinkle
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: By now the world knows that U.S. military forces for the first time since the onset of the Syrian civil war in 2011 have attacked regime targets. Plenty of the basic facts are known about what transpired about 18 hours ago, but a few important ones are not—at least not in the public domain. For example, we have only a very general Bomb Damage Assessment (BDA) report. This matters because Tomahawk cruise missiles are very accurate if “lite” weapons. Knowing what the four dozen or so missiles hit and missed, deliberately and otherwise, could tell us a lot about why the President, presumably with Secretary of Defense James Mattis’ guidance and concurrence, chose the lesser of three options presented at what has been described as a meeting of considerable length. That, in turn, could tell us if the intention ultimately is to coerce the Russians into coercing the Syrians to stop doing monstrous things to their own people, and possibly coercing them to support a compromise political settlement to the war; or if it’s just an Eff-You gesture designed only to relieve the sudden pressure of moral unction that unexpectedly came upon our new Commander-in Chief—who seemed to lurch from coldblooded Randian to “Godtalk” invoker of the American Civil Religion in the wink of an eye. In other words, knowing more about the target set would tell us whether there is any political strategy attached to the use of force, or not. Probably not.
Topic:: International Security and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: America, Middle East, and Syria

3223. The Campaign for Mosul: April 29-May 11, 2017

Author:: Patrick Martin
Publication Date:: 05-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:: Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) surged in northwest Mosul in a bid to clear the city prior to Ramadan, anticipated to begin on May 26. Emergency Response Division (ERD) and Federal Police (FP) units joined 9th and 15th Iraqi Army Division units in northwest Mosul on April 28. The combined forces recaptured the neighborhoods of Mushairfa and 30 Tamouz, and are fighting to seize the denser neighborhoods of Harmat, 17 Tamouz, and Hawi Kanisa as of publication. Meanwhile, Counter-Terrorism Services (CTS) recaptured three neighborhoods in western Mosul. ISF are unlikely to clear the city prior to Ramadan. ISIS claimed to launch attacks to retake two Old City gates, Bab al-Jadid and Bab al-Toub. ISIS will also continue to defend the Old City by conducting suicide attacks and attempting to draw fire on civilian gatherings. ISIS will concentrate its defenses around al-Nuri Great Mosque, where ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi appeared publicly in 2014.
Topic:: War
Political Geography:: Middle East

3224. ISIS Sanctuary

Author:: Alexandra Gutowski and Jesse Rose Dury-Agri
Publication Date:: 05-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:: U.S.-backed forces continue to advance on the major ISIS-held urban centers of Mosul, Iraq and Raqqa, Syria. Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) have encircled ISIS in Mosul’s Old City. The U.S.-backed, Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) captured Tabqa, a city adjacent to Raqqa that contains Syria’s largest dam. ISIS also lost terrain in southern Syria, as various factions of the Syrian opposition, including some with U.S. backing, cleared ISIS from positions in Suweida and the Qalamoun mountains. ISIS will attempt to offset these losses during its annual Ramadan offensive campaign, anticipated to begin around May 27. ISIS’s campaign in 2017 increasingly resembles its 2013 insurgent campaign; ISIS’s Ramadan plan will likely focus on synchronizing spectacular attacks across different locations for combined effect. Potential targets include religious sites, security forces, and oil infrastructure. ISIS may also conduct ground attacks in Salah ad Din, Anbar, and central Syria where ISIS retains latent combat capability.
Topic:: War and ISIS
Political Geography:: Middle East

3225. Russia and Iranian Basing In Syria

Author:: Chris Kozak, Genevieve Casagrande, and Tom Ramage
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:: Pro-regime basing data accurate through March 21, 2017. Syria Control of Terrain data accurate through April 3, 2017.
Topic:: War
Political Geography:: Middle East

3226. The Gulf: An unprecedented crisis and major repercussions

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 06-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: On 5 June 2017, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt, in marked succession, cut diplomatic relations with Qatar. Within a matter of hours, it became clear that this was not simply a move to sever ties, but a plan for a full embargo, an unprecedented step at a time of peace between these nations. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain blocked flights to Qatar, closed land and sea borders, and ordered Qatari citizens out of their countries while calling on their own nationals to leave Qatar. The same day, Maldives, Mauritius (though it later denied the news), the Libyan Tobruk-based government (which is not recognised internationally), and the Yemeni government based in Riyadh followed suit and cut ties with Qatar, unable to resist Saudi pressure. The next day, Jordan downgraded diplomatic relations with Qatar and revoked the licence of Al Jazeera’s bureau in Amman, while Mauritania severed diplomatic relations with Qatar. Mauritius, in an official statement, denied it had cut ties, raising questions of whether some party took the initiative on behalf of the Mauritian government. The actions taken at dawn on 5 June were the culmination of an unprecedented, anti-Qatar media blitz initiated by Emirati, Saudi, Bahraini and Egyptian media on the evening of 23 May. The campaign intensified until it assumed official imprimatur with the decision to cut ties and blockade Qatar. What, then, is happening to relations between countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)? After Gulf leaders came together in a scene of friendship, cooperation and solidarity during US President Donald Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, why are relations between three GCC states and Qatar deteriorating so rapidly and in such unprecedented fashion? Was there an immediate cause that spurred Saudi Arabia and its partners to take this stance, or were these actions planned in advance? Is this simply a fleeting crisis in relations between GCC states, or could the break persist?
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East

3227. The Battle of Western Mosul: Stakes and prospects

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: This paper reviews the importance of western Mosul to all parties in the conflict: the Iraqi forces and their allies, on the one hand, and the Islamic State’s forces, on the other, and the obstacles to any of these parties resolving the conflict. It also touches on the extent of their forces and the clear dominance of the offensive forces, and it discusses the military strategies for the battle and potential outcomes in addition to the available options for the Islamic State (IS). It anticipates an end to the fight in favour of the Iraqi forces within a few weeks if the battle and its results progress at a similar pace to that of its first week. This will depend on any unaccounted for variables during the battle that would change the equation on the ground. It concludes by discussing the available options for IS after the battle ends, with the expectation that IS will fight until the end; while its commanders will inevitability lose the battle, this will not eliminate threats to security and stability in Iraq in the foreseeable future.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Civil War, and International Security
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

3228. The Women in Daesh: Deconstructing Complex Gender Dynamics in Daesh Recruitment Propaganda

Author:: The Carter Center
Publication Date:: 05-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Carter Center
Abstract:: Since its inception, Daesh has been successfully recruiting women across national and ideological lines to assume key positions in advancing the organization’s objectives. According to recent estimates, out of 31,000 fighters within Daesh territories, almost one-fifth, roughly 6,200, are women. Yet, to date, research and policy focus on women’s involvement in Daesh has been scant. Several media accounts that have covered female participation tend to be alarmingly reductionist in their description of the roles women play in Daesh. These reports primarily categorize women as either passive victims, “Jihadi brides,” or subsidiary supporters of male guardians with negligible influence. This approach not only ignores the multiplicity of roles played by women to expand Daesh’s ideological and operational agenda, but also oversimplifies the motivations behind their decisions to join Daesh. Just like their male counterparts, women are complex human beings with conflicting aspirations, ideological leanings, and life struggles that inform the choices they make.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Gender Issues, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East and Global Focus

3229. Weekly Conflict Summary

Author:: The Carter Center
Publication Date:: 05-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Carter Center
Abstract:: During the reporting period, elements of an Astana de-escalation plan were enacted while pro-government forces advanced in Hama and the Eastern Ghouta region of Damascus. Opposition infighting in Eastern Ghouta and Idleb appears to have stopped for the time being. Fighting in and around Daraa city remained high this week, and both opposition and the predominantly Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) continued to take territory from ISIS.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Civil War
Political Geography:: Middle East

3230. Weekly Conflict Summary

Author:: The Carter Center
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Carter Center
Abstract:: During the reporting period, opposition forces advanced once more against ISIS fighters in the southeastern desert of Syria, opposition forces fought with one another once again in the Eastern Ghouta area of rural Damascus, and the predominantly Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) continued to advance against ISIS in Tabqa city west of Raqqa. Additionally, pro-government forces advanced against feuding opposition forces in Eastern Damascus, and international and pro-government forces were deployed within YPG-held territory following recent exchanges of fire between Turkey and Kurdish forces.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: Middle East

3231. Women and Peace Operations: The Achievement of the Italian Mission in Herat

Author:: Paola Sartori and Alessandra Scalia
Publication Date:: 05-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The research that forms the basis of this study aims to address women’s roles within peace operations, as well as their contribution to security and peace-building. Based on Italy’s contribution to the NATO-led missions – the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) and, currently, Resolute Support (RS) – the subject of the analysis is Afghanistan, and particularly Herat Province. The research e ort is speci cally aimed at assessing the impact of the civil–military cooperation (CIMIC) initiatives implemented by Italian troops in Herat, with a speci c focus on gender and Afghan women. The rst part of this paper addresses the theoretical framework on women’s participation in stabilization and reconstruction e orts. It introduces concepts such as gender analysis and gender mainstreaming, and, consequently, the bene ts of focusing on gender when carrying out CIMIC initiatives within peace operations. The second part focuses on the CIMIC activities implemented by the Italian contingent in Herat Province. The concluding section of the paper provides some “food for thought”, aimed at contributing to further enhancing the e ectiveness of the CIMIC projects carried out by the Italian military and their related e ects.
Topic:: Gender Issues and International Security
Political Geography:: Middle East

3232. Will Low-Cost Terror Financing Spread in the Middle East?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The international community’s e orts have recently succeeded in reducing the sources of funding of many terror organizations in the Middle East. ISIS is one instance, where the military operations launched by a US- led global coalition since September 2014, have signi cantly reduced the terrorist group’s funds generated from oil sales and illicit trade and caused huge losses.
Topic:: Terrorism, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East

3233. Repercussions of Ammar al-Hakim’s withdrawal from Iraq’s Islamic Supreme Council

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Ammar al-Hakim’s announcement on July 24, 2017 that he is stepping down as the leader of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) came after generation- al con icts surfaced between a number of the Coun- cil’s senior gures, who had visited Tehran to demand that he should be pressured over his reliance on the youth. Moreover, al-Hakim himself rejected attempts by senior members of the council to assume govern- ment positions, and even sought to build unique rela- tions with Arab and Western countries by presenting himself as an acceptable moderate Shiite gure. The outgoing leader is preparing for the upcoming elec- tions to be held across Iraq.
Topic:: International Relations, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East

3234. Extra-territorial Repercussions of ISIS’ Attack on Iraqi Embassy in Kabul

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: ISIS appears to be planning to attack the interests of some states that are in- volved in the war against it. The terror group’s recent assault was conducted in retaliation for its defeat in Mosul, liberated on July 10, 2017. That is evi- denced in ISIS’ quick claim of responsi- bility of the attack on the Iraqi Embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan on July 31, 2017.
Topic:: International Relations, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East

3235. What are the Implications of the Palestinian Issue for Turkey-Israel Relations?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Turkey-Israel relations have recently been caught in a new stage of political and media confrontations between the two countries over the recent developments at al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem, triggered by Israel’s installation of metal detectors at electronic gates to control access to the sanctuary. The resulting tensions prompted speculations that a new crisis is in the making that is rem- iniscent of the six-year diplomatic rift triggered by the 2010 Israeli raid on the Turkish- agged aid vessel Mavi Marmara, o the blockaded Gaza Strip, leaving ten Turks dead. That is despite the fact that the two countries renormalized their ties returning ambassadors to their posts and build- ing strong economic relations.
Topic:: International Security
Political Geography:: Middle East

3236. What is Iran’s Approach to US-North Korea Crisis?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The escalating crisis between the United States and North Korea is of special importance for Iran. Firstly, the US Administration of President Donald Trump has designated both Iran and North Korea as an imminent threat to the national security of the United States. The approach builds on the administration of former president George W. Bush’s repeated labelling of Iran and North Korea, as well as Iraq, as key rogue states of the so-called axis of evil, who sponsor terrorism and seek to ac- quire weapons of mass destruction.
Topic:: International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:: Middle East

3237. Why did Mogherini Attend Rouhani’s Inauguration?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: European states seek to increase the chances of maintaining the implementation of the nuclear agreement, also known as the Joint Comprehen- sive Plan of Action (JCPOA), concluded on July 14, 2017 between Iran and the P5+1 group of world powers, which includes the European Union, France as well as Germany. The bid is especially driven by the European view that a collapse of the deal would in ict grave consequences on their interests. However, the European bid is facing no easy hurdles. While the United States is keen to impose new sanctions on Iran over its ballistic missile program, Iran is similarly adamant about continuing this program as well as exploiting the nuclear deal to expand its in infuence in the region through backing terrorist organizations and establishing relations with non-state actors.
Topic:: International Relations, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Europe and Middle East

3238. What are the Implications of “Militia Wars” on Regional Security?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The raging war between Hezbollah and al-Nus- ra-Front in Arsal region raises several questions about militia wars, their features, mechanisms and outcomes. Such concerns have been raised especially after the relatively swift and decisive battle, which ended with a truce between the two parties sponsored by Lebanese General Se- curity and International Red Cross. Under the truce, al-Nusra Front militants and their families were evacuated from the Lebanese Arsal to Syria, in addition to the exchange of hostages between the parties. This was not the rst war raging be- tween armed militias in Syria, Iraq or Libya, as such kind of war has become common in recent times, especially in countries where ideologically disparate militias ght over spheres of in uence.
Topic:: International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East

3239. What Restricts Shifts in the Political Track of Syria’s Crisis?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Current data on the political and military situation in Syria indicate that the military as- pect remains the dominant factor in the crisis due to the faltering political track at Geneva and Astana. Nonetheless, significant political changes that developed recently cannot be underestimated in determining the future of the crisis.
Topic:: International Relations, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

3240. Significance of the new Kurdish arrangements in northern Syria

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The Kurdistan Democratic Union party (PYD) led by Saleh Musallam continues its ef- forts and takes new executive actions with the aim of turning the federal system, an- nounced on 17 March 2016 in areas under its control in northern Syria (Rojava regions) into reality. The previous step taken by PYD was preparing a draft Federal Constitution composed of 85 articles stipulating that the constitution is a social contract for the dem- ocratic federal Rojava, and considering the city of Qamishli as the capital and center of the federation.
Topic:: International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:: Middle East

3241. How Is SDF Dealing with Preparations for the Battle for Deir Ezzor?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The so-called Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) is making steady progress on the ground in Raqqa, ISIS’ main stronghold in Syria. The alliance of militias recently announced that they retook 70% of the city from the terrorist group following a successful plan to divide the city into an eastern and western zone and storm the city from both sides. The SDF militants advancing from the eastern and western parts of the city linked up for the first time on August 11 prevent- ing ISIS from reaching the Euphrates River and keeping its fighters with civilians who remain besieged by both groups.
Topic:: Democratization, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

3242. Alternative Alliances Why Is Hamas Seeking Stronger Relations with Iran?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The Islamic Resistance Movement (more commonly known as Hamas) has recently intensified its efforts to enhance its relations with Iran, especially after President Hassan Rouhani was elected for a second term. It also seeks to invest favorable official attitudes inside Iran where most main- stream political parties are urging for what they believe is necessary support to some organizations operating across the region, including the occupied Palestinian Territories, and resume full- fledged relations with Hamas.
Topic:: International Cooperation, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

3243. From Reform to Revolution A Schism in the Muslim Brotherhood and the Rise of Homegrown Jihadism in Mainland Egypt

Author:: Alexander Velez-Green
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: The United States has long looked to Egypt as a key partner in the Middle East. Egypt’s adherence to the Camp David Accords is fundamental to Israeli security. Cairo has also been a key player in the Israeli–Palestinian peace process for many years. In addition, the Egyptian state has played an essential role in supporting the U.S. fight against global jihadism. Its provision of reliable access to the Suez Canal, Egyptian airspace, and intelligence sharing directly enables U.S. operations against al Qaeda and the Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) across the Middle East. That is not to mention the blood and treasure that Egypt itself has spent to defeat terrorist groups operating in the Sinai Peninsula and elsewhere.
Topic:: International Relations, International Security, and Political stability
Political Geography:: Middle East

3244. Gray Zones in the Middle East

Author:: Nicholas Heras
Publication Date:: 09-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and trans-Sahara regions are undergoing a period of instability and state collapse, with active civil wars raging in four of the most important countries in the region: Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Libya. As witnessed during the Arab uprisings of 2010–2011, the MENA region has begun to grapple with the once and future challenges of instability as the regional population grows and skews younger, economies stagnate and start to collapse, and resources become scarcer. U.S. national security policy toward the MENA and trans-Sahara regions is at a point of high uncertainty, with a new administration developing strategies to address the security threats to the United States and its partner nations being caused by the region’s civil wars.
Topic:: International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:: Middle East

3245. Three Generations of Jihadism in Iraqi Kurdistan

Author:: Adel Bakawan
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: Iraqi Kurdistan, previously known as a secure and stable region amidst the chaotic and shaken Middle East, was struck by a wave of attacks in 2016. Between September and December of that year, there were five recorded terrorist operations led by 249 Kurdish jihadists rallied by the Islamic State (ISIS) or Daesh, of which 47 were killed and 43 were arrested by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). In fact, Iraqi Kurdistan, with a population of five million inhabitants, has supplied ISIS with 2,000 jihadists. Since the launch of the Mosul offensive on 17th October 2016, Kurdistan has been preparing itself, like many other countries in the region and a number of European countries, to face its worst nightmare: the Kurdish jihadists’ return to the country. Although a series of threats weigh upon the leaders of the KRG, such as social and economic crises, political division between rival parties; Masoud Barzani’s Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and Jalal Talabani’s Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), the prospect of a new civil war, and the intervention of neighbouring countries – the return of the Kurds of Daesh is currently the most troublesome.
Topic:: Terrorism and International Security
Political Geography:: Middle East

3246. How has Qatar Fended Amidst a Sociopolitical and Economic Blockade by its Neighbours?

Author:: Thembisa Fakude
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: The haphazard nature of the political campaign by the anti-Qatar forces demonstrated serious political immaturity and the over-estimation of the power of money in politics and shaping world opinion.
Topic:: International Political Economy
Political Geography:: Middle East

3247. Counterterrorism and Neo-Machiavellism in International Relations

Author:: Dr. Mohammed Cherkaoui
Publication Date:: 09-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: The new approach of the U.S. foreign policy toward the Middle East has increasingly pivoted around possible ways of fighting radical groups with various denominations.
Topic:: International Relations and Counter-terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East

3248. Europe and the Gulf Crisis

Author:: Stasa Salacanin
Publication Date:: 09-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: The GCC crisis has put all international actors, including Europe, in a complicated position, and as ever louder calls for the greater engagement in the mediation process comes at challenging times as Europe is facing countless problems at home.
Topic:: International Relations and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Europe and Middle East

3249. Saudi Vision 2030 and the Consequences of the Gulf Crisis

Author:: Naser al-Tamimi
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: The Saudi government has begun an ambitious process of economic reforms, but internal resistance and external disturbances – worsened by the Gulf crisis – are increasing costs and may lead to its failure.
Topic:: International Political Economy
Political Geography:: Middle East

3250. The Gulf Crisis: Demonising Qatar through Fabrication

Author:: Dr. Mohamed Erraji
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: This paper reviews the role of media fabrication and propaganda in the current political crisis in the Gulf. Propagandists have deliberately created a new political reality to demonise Qatari politics and political leaders with a detailed political approach to create a prefabricated reality.
Topic:: International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:: Middle East

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS