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1. Politicization, Ratification of International Agreements, and Domestic Political Competition in Non-Democracies: The Case of Iran and the Paris Climate Accords

Author:
Reşat Bayer and Bijan Tafazzoli
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
While some degree of competition is present in many authoritarian regimes, the implications of such controlled competition on international issues have not received much consideration, including towards international environmental accords. We attempt to rectify this through a framework where we focus on internal political competition in a hybrid, nondemocratic system where national elections are held regularly. Specifically, we argue that the presence of multiple actors competing in elections in nondemocratic settings results in them assuming positions on various issues, justifying their positions, and attempting to mobilize their supporters with considerable implications for international environmental policies. We display our argument in the context of Iranian debates on the ratification of the Paris Climate Accords. Our findings demonstrate that the competing Iranian sides rely on different justifications for their environmental positions, resulting in extensive (negative) competitions of rhetoric where the international dimension emerges as an important feature in the internal competition. Overall, we show that political competition within non-democracies is likely to add to the complexity of international (environmental) negotiations and cooperation.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Politics, Treaties and Agreements, Sanctions, Authoritarianism, Elections, Paris Agreement, Narrative, and Regime Survival
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

2. Turkey: The beginning of the next phase of autocratization or the revival of democracy

Author:
Cengiz Günay
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
In May 2023, Turkey will hold the most critical elections since the founding of the Republic 100 years ago. For the first time in 20 years in power, public polls point at an electoral defeat of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. What does the crisis and potential demise of President Erdoğan mean for Turkey? Is this the beginning of a next phase of autocratization or the chance for transition to democracy? Autocratization came gradually after recurrent electoral victories of the ruling AKP. The executive takeover (Svolik 2019) has entailed the colonization of state institutions, the control of the judiciary, the mainstreaming of media, the curtailment of democratic rights and liberties and the reorganization of business capital. Authoritarianism reached a new level after the failed coup attempt of 2016 and introduction of a presidential system in 20181. Ever since executive powers are united in the hands of the president. He can rule with executive orders, appoint ministers and bureaucrats and redesign institutions and ministries without the approval of the parliament. Parliament was weakened and checks and balances largely elimitnated. Independent state institutions such as the Supreme Election Committee, the Regulatory Radio and Televison Authority or the Central Bank have lost their autonomy. Without exception, they are all led by loyal supporters who are appointed by the president.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Elections, AKP, and Autocracy
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

3. West and China Compete for Tech Influence in Arab Persian Gulf States

Author:
Sara Nowacka
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
New technologies are an increasingly important element of the Sino-American rivalry in the Persian Gulf. China has become the preferred partner in this area due to, for example, the dominant role of government (vs. private) investment in the technology sector in both China and the Gulf states. The intensification of cooperation between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and China in the field of new technologies may increase the influence of authoritarian states in setting technological standards.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Authoritarianism, Investment, Rivalry, and Gulf Cooperation Council
Political Geography:
China, Middle East, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

4. Autocratization vs. democratization: The new framework for understanding political competition in Turkey in view of the elections and beyond

Author:
Evangelos Areteos
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The traditional “Kemalist vs. Islamist” divide is being replaced by authoritarianism vs. democratization. The antagonism between authoritarian statism and democratization will decide the future of the country. The current Opposition reflects the profound social need for change and democratization. AKP and MHP voters have far more hard-line nationalist and less democratic attitudes than supporters of the opposition parties.
Topic:
Democratization, Nationalism, Authoritarianism, Elections, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

5. China’s Response to Türkiye’s Volatile Authoritarianism

Author:
Ceren Ergenç and Kenan Göçer
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
This paper investigates Türkiye’s evolving relations with China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a large-scale program of infrastructure investment and project financing proposed by Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013. The paper digs deeply into cases from two sectors—transportation and energy—focusing on how heightened and changing local expectations among Turks for these prospective BRI projects have shaped choices and outcomes, including China’s. In so doing, it explores how these shifting Turkish perceptions affect the implementation of BRI projects in Türkiye. This paper has several goals: it seeks to understand the reasons behind these local changes, the role of the state and private sector in Türkiye in these changes, and the way China has responded so far. Of course, domestic factors are not the only ones that shape the implementation of BRI projects in Türkiye or elsewhere; regional and global trends have had an impact too.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Infrastructure, Authoritarianism, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Investment
Political Geography:
China, Turkey, Middle East, and Asia

6. The American Invasion and Authoritarianism

Author:
Joseph Sassoon
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:
Professor Joseph Sassoon discusses the durability of authoritarianism and the decline of American predominance in the years following the Iraq War. The American invasion of Iraq in 2003 was not an isolated episode—as interventions by superpowers, have been a recurring feature in the contemporary history of the Middle East and its authoritarian trajectories. Even so, the American invasion stands out in terms of its scale and the reach of its aftermath. The events of 2003 have influenced Arab regimes and societies far more than other wars or softer forms of global involvement—and in ways that remain more distinct today. The fallout and lingering effects of the American invasion included regional polarizations, securitization, sectarian/ethnic manipulation, transferred counterinsurgency practices, and the expansion of carceral systems. Although Middle Eastern regimes varied in their capacity to translate their learning in the face of social and geopolitical pressures, these fallouts found unique expression in the “rogue states” that were targets of American democratization campaigns and played a key role in autocratic revival and well-being post-2011.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Iraq War, and Invasion
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

7. Turkey at 100 | Reassessing Turkey's National Identity: A Century of Change

Author:
Jenny White, Ali Yaycioglu, Kemal Kirisci, Mustafa Akyol, Gulseren Onanc, Can Candan, and Michael Harris
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
This year marks the centenary of the establishment of the Turkish Republic. To reflect on this occasion, assess current realities, and discuss Turkey's future, the Middle East Institute's Turkish Studies Program is pleased to announce its 12th Annual Turkey Conference, which will be convened on Dec. 6, 2023, at the historical National Press Building, in downtown Washington, D.C. We look forward to hosting you for a full day of insightful and timely conversations on how Turkey's identity has changed in the last 100 years, the health of the country's democracy, the evolving direction of Ankara's foreign and regional policies, and its relationship with the United States.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Authoritarianism, Democracy, Domestic Politics, Ideology, and Identity
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

8. The Revolutionary Kids Are Alright: Egypt Ten Years after the Coup

Author:
Stephen R. Grand
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
A decade after the military staged a coup to regain control, Egypt’s revolutionary youth, who took to the streets in 2011 to topple long-time dictator Hosni Mubarak, are unmoved. They are perplexed and saddened by the dramatic turns their revolution has taken over the last dozen years, lurching from autocracy to nascent democracy and back again. But they still dare to dream of a better Egypt – one that emerges from its current political, economic and social crises more free and just and prosperous.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Arab Spring, Youth, Coup, and Revolution
Political Geography:
Middle East, North Africa, and Egypt

9. Reimagining the Future of Human Rights: Social Justice, Environmental Justice and Democracy in the Global South

Author:
Jessica Corredor Villamil
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
Dejusticia
Abstract:
This book is the collective effort of participants from the 2018 Global Action-Research Workshop for Young Human Rights Advocates, which Dejusticia has been organizing annually since 2013. These workshops aim to strengthen the abilities of young activists from the global South to achieve a greater impact in their human rights work and to reach a wider audience through new forms of narration. This book is just one of the many outcomes of the 2018 workshop. The talented and committed authors of this volume—all contributors to previous editions as well—hail from countries as diverse as Brazil, Ghana, Russia, and Venezuela. They came together again in 2018 to think about the intersection between research and activism and what it holds for the future of human rights. That is why our selection process for the 2018 workshop participants sought to ensure that two people from each cohort were working from a transnational perspective. The specific goal of this particular workshop was to reflect on the future of human rights, for we sensed that we were at a crossroads. With the recent rise in populist authoritarian governments, the global increase in inequality, and the worsening climate crisis, a number of thought leaders have wondered whether we have reached “the endtimes of human rights” (Hopgood 2013). We thus wished to use this workshop as an opportunity to respond to some of the most frequent criticisms of the efficacy and legitimacy of the human rights movement by drawing on historical and empirical arguments and responding to the reflections of Kathryn Sikkink—one of the workshop’s instructors—in her book Evidence for Hope (2017). Human rights defenders and activists are working in a world that is constantly changing. It’s a more multipolar world; powerful voices have emerged from the global South, which has reshaped the way that human rights work is being done across the globe. Furthermore, the Arab Spring and other social mobilizations that have since taken place have put the spotlight on civil society’s ability to act and its convening 12 Jessica Corredor-Villamil authority. Nonetheless, despite the fairly positive outlook for civil society participation and the emergence of new voices, it is necessary to review the strategies that we have been using thus far and explore how to make them more effective. This book is extremely relevant today, three years after the workshop, as we are living in a transformative time. The COVID-19 pandemic has had unprecedented socioeconomic and political impacts, including increases in inequality, unemployment, states’ abuses of their emergency powers, and the concentration of presidential power. Moreover, social networks have played a critical role in the sociopolitical arena, not only in light of their capacity to massively mobilize but also due to their propensity to foster political polarization and the use of misinformation for political ends. Thus, although we face a different context from the one in 2018, this volume serves as a guide of sorts to help us reconsider the effectiveness of our strategies as a human rights movement as we look toward the challenges being posed by the third century of this decade. The contributors to this book question traditional methods and explore new ways and visions of advancing human rights in the troubled context in which we live. Do the struggles of small-scale miners in Ghana, the use of strategic litigation in Lebanon, and the recognition of the rights of nature in India represent evidence for hope? Or is the opposite true, and, as shown in the chapters on martial law in the Philippines, the treatment of wastewater in Argentina, and in the internal conflict in Yemen, human rights have failed to deliver on their promises?
Topic:
Human Rights, Water, Authoritarianism, Democracy, Social Justice, Surveillance, Indigenous, COVID-19, Armed Conflict, and Environmental Justice
Political Geography:
Africa, South Asia, Middle East, India, Argentina, Philippines, Yemen, South America, Hungary, Lebanon, Venezuela, Ghana, and Global South

10. A Shaky Foundation: The Myth of Authoritarian Stability in the Middle East

Author:
Jon Hoffman
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
American foreign policy in the Middle East is based on a myth. For decades, policymakers have worked to prop up Middle Eastern autocracies out of the belief that they serve as the only bulwark against chaos and threats to American interests in the region. This approach gets things backward. Rather than being the solution to the region’s various problems, these actors are responsible for producing and exacerbating the greatest underlying problems in the region, and a blank check from Washington allows them to act with impunity both at home and abroad. Accordingly, U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East is in desperate need of an overhaul.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Authoritarianism, and Political stability
Political Geography:
Middle East