Number of results to display per page
Search Results
3902. The Key to Pressuring Assad Is UNSCR 2118
- Author:
- Andrew J. Tabler
- Publication Date:
- 02-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- By focusing on the Syrian regime's faltering commitment to eliminate its chemical weapons, Washington can decisively push Damascus and Russia toward real progress on larger issues -- and also set the table for limited military strikes if they prove necessary.
- Topic:
- Treaties and Agreements, United Nations, and Armed Struggle
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Washington, Middle East, and Syria
3903. Iran-US Relations in the Light of the Nuclear Negotiations
- Author:
- Kayhan Barzegar
- Publication Date:
- 09-2014
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The International Spectator
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The nuclear negotiations between Iran and EU3+3 have provided the grounds for establishing direct talks between Iran and the United States, subsequently creating a positive prospect for solving the Iranian nuclear standoff after a decade of negotiations. The effect of economic sanctions and political change in Iran have made it possible to bring an important foreign policy issue into domestic politics discourses. The fact that the nuclear negotiations put Iran in a position comparable to the other world powers strengthened a sense of movement towards a win-win situation among Iranian political forces. All of this created a relative political consensus among Iran's ruling elites regarding the need to initiate direct talks with the United States in order to solve the Iranian nuclear standoff. The nuclear programme is also linked with the regional equation, the result of which has been the emergence of a new kind pragmatism in the conduct of Iranian regional policy in hope of revising Iran's place in US Middle East policy.
- Topic:
- Economics and Sanctions
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, and Middle East
3904. The EU and the Syrian Crisis as Viewed from the Middle East
- Author:
- Lorenzo Trombetta
- Publication Date:
- 09-2014
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The International Spectator
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Seen through the eyes of Syrian activists and other observers based in the Middle East, EU policy towards Syria could in some ways appear inconsistent and ambiguous. In Brussels, EU representatives remind us that the Syrian crisis is the most difficult one the European Union has had to face so far, for the unprecedented scope of the humanitarian catastrophe, its geographic proximity to the Union's borders, and the difficulties in deciphering a fluid and multi-dimensional conflict. After more than three years since the eruption of violence, the EU is trying hard to play a pivotal role in the Syrian issue, despite the complexity of balancing its institutions, the different political sensibilities of its 28 member states, and the pressures exerted by influent external actors.
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, Syria, and Brussels
3905. The Struggle for the Levant: Geopolitical Battles and the Quest for Stability
- Author:
- Aram Nerguizian
- Publication Date:
- 09-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The United States and its allies compete with Iran in a steadily more unsettled and uncertain Levant. The political upheavals in the Middle East, economic and demographic pressures, sectarian struggles and extremism, ethnic and tribal conflicts and tensions all combine to produce complex patterns of competition.
- Topic:
- International Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, Middle East, and Syria
3906. Security Transition in Afghanistan
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman
- Publication Date:
- 09-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Creating an effective transition for the ANSF is only one of the major challenges that Afghanistan, the US, and Afghanistan's other allies face during 2014-2015 and beyond.
- Topic:
- Security and Defense Policy
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, and Middle East
3907. The Civil Transition in Afghanistan: 2014-2016
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman
- Publication Date:
- 09-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Creating an effective transition for the ANSF is only one of the major challenges that Afghanistan, the US, and Afghanistan's other allies face during 2014 2015 and beyond. The five other key challenges include: Going from an uncertain election to effective leadership and political cohesion and unity. Creating an effective and popular structure governance, with suitable reforms, from the local to central government, reducing corruption to acceptable levels, and making suitable progress in planning, budgeting, and budget execution. Coping with the coming major cuts in outside aid and military spending in Afghanistan, adapting to a largely self-financed economy, developing renewal world economic development plans, carrying out the reforms pledged at the Tokyo Conference, and reducing the many barriers to doing business. Establishing relations with Pakistan and other neighbors that will limit outside pressures and threats, and insurgent sanctuaries on Afghanistan's border. Persuading the US, other donors, NGCO, and nations will to provide advisors to furnish the needed aid effort through at least 2018, and probably well beyond.
- Topic:
- Government, Politics, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Middle East
3908. The Middle East and North Africa: Change and Upheaval 2014
- Author:
- Christian Koch
- Publication Date:
- 07-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- The breakdown of state structures and the wider regional political order has resulted in a complex tapestry of conflict throughout the Middle East that is likely to produce a continued period of volatility and violence for several years to come. This is because there are numerous dynamics at play that are competing with one another across various levels. Within these dynamics, religion as a mobilizing factor which, alongside sectarianism has emerged as a primary driving force for many of the ongoing conflicts. In addition, the deep crisis of the nation-state has released different dichotomies resulting in overlapping lines of confrontation that seem to be exploding all at once. The situation is exacerbated by the diminished leverage of global players on regional forces and regional players over national ones, thus significantly complicating the search for solutions.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and North Africa
3909. The EU in the MENA region: confounded by the chaos?
- Author:
- Domhnall O'Sullivan
- Publication Date:
- 06-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- The first concerns the fundamental methodological logic of the policy instruments underpinning EU action in its neighbourhood. Historically, a certain duality has existed between the multilateral regionalism of grand approaches towards the south and the bilateral realism which often comes to the fore. According to institutional dynamics and preferences – as well as vacillating local conditions – the EU has moved back and forth along this continuum.
- Topic:
- International Relations
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, and North Africa
3910. Making the Case: Congress Should Pass New Authorization for Use of Force Against ISIS
- Author:
- Mieke Eoyang and Peter Billerbeck
- Publication Date:
- 09-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Third Way
- Abstract:
- Congress should pass a new, specific authorization for the President to act against ISIS. ISIS represents a substantial threat, and left unchecked, could launch attacks against the US. Because defeating ISIS will be a long-term effort, it is incumbent on Congress to pass a new authorization for the use of force. Unlike previous authorizations, this one should be carefully tailored and come in the context of a broader strategy.
- Topic:
- Security
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Syria
3911. A strategy to defeat the islamic state
- Author:
- Frederick W. Kagan, Kimberly Kagan, and Jessica D. Lewis
- Publication Date:
- 09-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- The Islamic State poses a grave danger to the United States and its allies in the Middle East and around the world due to its location, resources, the skill and determination of its leaders and fighters, and its demonstrated lethality compared to other al Qaeda-like groups. In Syria, the Assad regime has lost control of the majority of the state, and the regime's atrocities and sectarianism have fueled violent Islamists, particularly ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra (JN). In Iraq, the government has lost control over large portions of territory that the Iraqi Security Forces and Kurdish Peshmerga are incapable of retaking without significant foreign support. The Sunni Arabs of Iraq and Syria are the decisive human terrain. Al-Qaeda and similar groups can only flourish in distressed Sunni communities. Any strategy to counter al-Qaeda requires working with these communities, as the U.S. and the Iraqi government did during the Awakening in 2007. Having neglected Iraq and Syria, the U.S. currently lacks the basic intelligence and contextual understanding to build a strategy. The U.S. must adopt an iterative approach that tests assumptions, enriches understanding, builds partnerships with willing Sunni Arabs, and sets conditions for more decisive operations.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and Islam
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Syria
3912. Foreign Fighters in Syria
- Author:
- Richard Barrett
- Publication Date:
- 06-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Soufan Group
- Abstract:
- Over 12,000 fighters from at least 81 countries have joined the civil war in Syria, and the numbers continue to grow. Around 2,500 are from Western countries, including most members of the European Union, the United States, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. There are also several hundred from Russia. But the great majority are from the Arab World. Most are fighting with rebel groups, and increasingly with the most extreme among them; but many are also fighting with the Government, or with ethnic or faith communities that are trying to protect themselves from both sides. A lot are young, often teenagers, and a fair percentage of those arriving from non-Muslim majority countries are converts to Islam. These and others who share their faith commonly express their motivation as a religious obligation to protect fellow Muslims from attack. This sense of duty is captured by their loose use of the word 'jihad'.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, Middle East, Canada, Arabia, Australia, Syria, and New Zealand
3913. The "Home Game" Counting Violent Extremism within NATO
- Author:
- Jacqueline Page
- Publication Date:
- 09-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- NATO Defense College
- Abstract:
- As the complex global security environment faced by NATO members continues to evolve in the coming years, terrorism – waged by actors both in and outside of their borders – will remain a vexing challenge. For over a decade, NATO's counterterrorism strategy has been built on taking the fight abroad. Member nations have been intimately involved in this effort as contributors to the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan, to the Multi-National Force in Iraq and in a variety of smaller missions around the globe. In recent times, however, there has been growing attention to the threat posed by “homegrown” terrorism and foreign fighters returning from Syria and elsewhere to their home countries throughout the Euro-Atlantic area.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, NATO, and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Iraq, Middle East, and Syria
3914. TSG IntelBrief: Foreign Fighters in Syria: A Growing Threat
- Publication Date:
- 06-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Soufan Group
- Abstract:
- The number of foreign fighters is high, 12,000 and counting, and the spread of countries they come from covers much of the globe. Two recent events involving foreign fighters show the radicalizing influence of the war. With the support to bolster Syria's more secular rebel forces at times inconsistent and tepid, the lack of an alternative has accelerated a natural gravitation towards extremist elements. It will be hard to know which returnees pose a threat, and harder still to deal with them. Given that the number of foreign fighters already exceeds those that went to Afghanistan, government resources will be severely strained to monitor all returnees and will have to rely on the help of local communities.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Islam, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United Kingdom, Middle East, and Syria
3915. TSG IntelBrief: : Foreign Fighters from North Africa in Syria and Iraq
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Soufan Group
- Abstract:
- No region has seen more of its people travel to fight in Syria than North Africa; more than 3,000 Tunisians have traveled there as of last April, and more than 1,500 Moroccans This is a repeat of a decade ago when large numbers of North Africans traveled to Iraq to fight there as well, in proportions far above those of neighboring countries A significant number of recent North African fighters have conducted suicide bombings in both Iraq and Syria, highlighting that the deadly ideological message of the so-called Islamic State (IS) and other extremist groups is finding purchase in North Africa The reasons for this export of extremists include incomplete political reforms that have failed to redress serious societal issues, persistent high youth unemployment, and a failure to cope with the apparent high levels of disaffection, despair, and anger that drive people to choose violent extremism.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Islam, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, Arabia, North Africa, and Syria
3916. TSG IntelBrief:: The Bomb-Proof Finances of the Islamic State
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Soufan Group
- Abstract:
- Attacking the finances of the so-called Islamic State (IS) with limited collateral damage will be orders of magnitude more difficult than attacking its military factions The group has thoroughly embedded itself into local and regional economies in Syria and Iraq, and damaging its finances while not devastating civilian populations will be as difficult as it is necessary IS oil revenues might be the easiest to disrupt but such action comes with significant collateral economic damage, while taxes, tolls, extortion, and food sales generate more income while remaining highly resistant to external forces In the areas under its control, IS has been providing social services as well as delivering levels of fuel, electricity, and food to populations utterly without recourse, meaning the group needs to be replaced and not simply removed.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Islam, Terrorism, Insurgency, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arabia
3917. TSG IntelBrief: Turkey Steps In: A Good Thing?
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Soufan Group
- Abstract:
- The Turkish parliament's vote to authorize the deployment of military forces in Syria and Iraq provided a legal and official framework for such action It may appear to be a positive step in degrading and destroying the putative Islamic State (IS), however, the parliament in its vote used the broader term "terrorist organizations," thus the landscape for Turkey, Syria-Iraq, and regional states and interests remains exceptionally complex Though there is nearly universal and implacable opposition to IS among all actors in Syria and Iraq, Turkey's future role-depending on steps taken-could aggravate tensions not only with Arab Gulf states and Kurdish elements in Syria and Iraq, but Iran, Russia, and the Iraqi government Turkey's desire to create a buffer zone on the Syrian side of its common border remains one of the most sensitive issues Amid reports of increased IS pressure on Kobani, Kurdish PKK has insinuated Turkey will be to blame-not IS-for creating conditions for the refugee crisis, and threatens to resume opposition activity in Turkey. The Turkish parliament's vote Thursday to authorize use of its army and military facilities in the fight against the so-called Islamic State (IS) may appear at first look to be a positive step for the broader coalition. The measures-to be determined-are in addition to any financial, diplomatic, humanitarian, and support activities for the anti-IS coalition. However, parliament's vote did not entail Turkey's officially joining the coalition. After the recent deal-details yet to be revealed-to bring home over 40 hostages IS had taken from Turkey's consulate in Mosul, Iraq, in June 2014, pressure increased for Turkey to take military steps in the anti-IS fight. A factor increasing the possibility of military action is Turkish special operations forces' guarding the tomb of Suleyman Shah, a Turkish enclave in Syria reported to be increasingly surrounded by IS. Though there is almost universal animus toward IS in the region, there is also nearly uniform resistance to Turkey's perceived unilateral military involvement in Syria and Iraq, outside the framework of the anti-IS coalition. Turkey's next moves may cause more conflict than benefit in the anti-IS fight. Indeed, the political landscape for Turkey's moves at home and abroad remains extraordinarily complex.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Islam, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria
3918. Mediating Transition in Yemen: Achievements and Lessons
- Author:
- Steven A. Zyck
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- Yemen remains the only site of an Arab Spring uprising that has ended in a negotiated agreement and a structured, internationally supported transition process. As Jamal Benomar, the United Nations Special Adviser to the Secretary-General on Yemen, stated, “Yemen was definitely heading towards a Syria-type scenario” before international actors, including the United Nations (UN), helped to shepherd a complex transition process, which continues at the time of writing. Benomar, with support from a wide array of stakeholders, helped avert an escalating conflict in Yemen by stepping in to offer the good offices of the UN secretarygeneral without waiting for the UN Security Council or the embattled Yemeni regime to demand UN action. Benomar's interventions— including bringing Yemen's major political parties together amid the uprising—helped ensure that the country did not devolve into civil war when President Ali Abdullah Saleh stepped down after thirty-three years in power. That is, the UN opened a space for dialogue where none had previously been considered possible.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Treaties and Agreements, and Popular Revolt
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, and Syria
3919. We Will Stop Here and Go No Further: Syrian University Students and Scholars in Turkey
- Author:
- Keith David Watenpaugh, Adrienne L. Fricke, and James R. King
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute of International Education (IIE)
- Abstract:
- On a warm June afternoon in Reyhanlı, Turkey, more than 30 displaced and refugee Syrian university students, some with their parents, gathered in the living room of the apartment that serves as the headquarters of the Union of Free Syrian Academics (UFSA). They had assembled to talk with our research team about their efforts to finish their university studies. Before the war in Syria Began, Reyhanlı had been a sleepy border town on the road between Antakya and Aleppo, frequented by smugglers. Today, it hosts tens of thousands of Syrians who have crossed into Turkey at one of the few border crossings that remain in the hands of the Western and Turkish-supported Free Syrian Army. Parts of Reyhanlı now feel like a refugee camp – with the sense of boredom, frustration, and expectation one finds in camps – but without barbed wire and restrictions on movement. We were visiting the town because it is home to several initiatives and programs related to higher education and other necessary support for Syrian students and scholars.
- Topic:
- Education and Human Rights
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Syria
3920. Toward a Lasting Ceasefire in Gaza
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- More than seven weeks after the most devastating war yet waged in Gaza, its underlying causes remain unresolved. Hamas did not achieve an end to Gaza's closure; Israel did not attain the demilitarisation of the Strip or Hamas. The Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) remains unrepresentative and its credibility continues to fade. Fatah's popularity has sunk while Hamas's has increased to levels unseen since its 2006 electoral victory. Small steps toward reconciliation between Hamas and the PLO have been taken, but they are very distant from the end goal of a unified, representative Palestinian leadership. But in reconciliation lies the only hope of achieving a sustainable ceasefire and, more broadly, of bringing Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank under one authority.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Arms Control and Proliferation, War, and Peacekeeping
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Palestine
3921. United States-Gulf Cooperation Council Security Coopeeration in a Multipolar World
- Author:
- Mohammed El-Katiri
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- For the United States, the Arabian Gulf region remains one of the most geostrategically important locations in the world. Home to over half of the world's oil reserves and nearly a third of its natural gas, the Gulf states continue to supply world markets with an important share of their energy supplies. Continuing to be one of the world's largest regional suppliers of energy and holding much of the world's spare capacity in crude oil production makes the region central to the stability of the global oil market.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Arabia
3922. After the Spring: Reforming Arab Armies
- Author:
- Florence Gaub
- Publication Date:
- 09-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- The Arab Spring had a military dimension in both its targets—regimes with a military background—and its outcomes. Where the armed forces in their entirety or partially sided with the protesters regime change succeeded; where they did not, it failed.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, and Development
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arabia
3923. Turkey's New Regional Security Role: Implications for the United States
- Author:
- Richard Weitz
- Publication Date:
- 09-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- Until a few years ago, the relationship between Washington, DC, and Ankara, Turkey, was perennially troubled and occasionally terrible. Turks strongly opposed the U.S. 2003 invasion of Iraq and have subsequently complained that the Pentagon was allowing Iraqi Kurds too much autonomy, leading to deteriorating security along the Iraq-Turkey border. Disagreements over how to respond to Iran's nuclear program, U.S. suspicions regarding Turkey's outreach efforts to Iran and Syria, and differences over Armenia, Palestinians, and the Black Sea further strained ties and contributed to further anti Americanism in Turkey. Now Turkey is seen as responding to its local challenges by moving closer to the West, leading to the advent of a “Golden Era” in Turkish U.S. relations. Barack Obama has called the U.S.-Turkish relationship a “model partnership” and Turkey “a critical ally.” Explanations abound as to why U.S.-Turkey ties have improved during the last few years. The U.S. military withdrawal from Iraq removed a source of tension and gave Turkey a greater incentive to cooperate with Washington to influence developments in Iraq. Furthermore, the Arab Awakening led both countries to partner in support of the positive agenda of promoting democracy and security in the Middle East. Americans and Turks both want to see democratic secular governments in the region rather than religiously sanctioned authoritarian ones. Setbacks in Turkey's reconciliation efforts with Syria, Iran, and other countries led Ankara to realize that having good relations with the United States helps it achieve core goals in the Middle East and beyond. Even though Turkey's role as a provider of security and stability in the region is weakened as a result of the recent developments in Syria and the ensuing negative consequences in its relations to other countries, Turkey has the capacity to recover and resume its position. Partnering with the United States is not always ideal, but recent setbacks have persuaded Turkey's leaders that they need to backstop their new economic strength and cultural attractiveness with the kind of hard power that is most readily available to the United States. For a partnership between Turkey and the United States to endure, however, Turkey must adopt more of a collective transatlantic perspective, crack down harder on terrorist activities, and resolve a domestic democratic deficit. At the same time, Europeans should show more flexibility meeting Turkey's security concerns regarding the European Union, while the United States should adopt a more proactive policy toward resolving potential sources of tensions between Ankara and Washington that could significantly worsen at any time.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Ethnic Conflict, Islam, and Power Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Turkey, and Middle East
3924. Turkey's Last Electoral Rite of Passage for a Post-Stress Democracy
- Author:
- Ertan Aydin
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Insight Turkey
- Institution:
- SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
- Abstract:
- Turkey's presidential election in August 2014 introduced the direct election of the president, ushering in a new era of Turkish democracy. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's election to the Turkish presidency signals the legitimization of the AK Party's emocratic reforms over the previous twelve years. Turkish citizens' widespread participation in the election indicates a non-partisan acceptance of Turkey's democratic system, and its departure from the bureaucratic and military influence under the Kemalist system. Even the opposition parties have recognized this shift, adapting their political agendas and election strategies to appeal to the center. These developments have implications for the political future of Turkey, the Middle East, and the international community.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Environment
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
3925. Arab Reactions To Turkey's Regional Reengagement
- Author:
- Malik Mufti
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Insight Turkey
- Institution:
- SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
- Abstract:
- During the first years of its tenure in office, as the AK Party focused on consolidating its position domestically, Turkey's reengagement with the Arab world after decades of alienation took a largely unproblematic form. Inevitably, however, as Turkish activism deepened, conflicts of interest emerged both with other aspirants to regional influence such as Iran and Israel, and then - especially after the outbreak of the 2011 uprisings - with many Arab regimes as well. The future character of Turkey's engagement with its Arab neighbors will depend on its ability to combine an adherence to a conception of community based on Islam rather than ethnic nationalism, with a commitment to democratization both at home and regionally.
- Topic:
- Environment and Government
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Arabia
3926. The New Era In Turkish Foreign Policy: Critiques And Challenges
- Author:
- Murat Yeşi̇ltaş
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Insight Turkey
- Institution:
- SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
- Abstract:
- This article examines the critiques directed at Turkish foreign policy during the AK Party administration. There are three basic critiques leveled at the foreign policy that has been followed by the AK Party: Islamist ideology, geopolitical codes, and lack of capacity in foreign policy. These criticisms will be examined through a multi-layered approach, whereby they will be contextualized in terms of global fragmentation (macro level), regional disorder and fragmentation (meso level), and restoration in domestic politics and the opponents within Turkey towards these policies (micro level). A look at the challenges that Turkish foreign policy faces today and the search for a new foreign policy model will follow.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Arabia
3927. Revival of Political Islam in the Aftermath of Arab Uprisings: Implications for the Region and Beyond
- Author:
- Mohammed El-Katiri
- Publication Date:
- 07-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- As part of the radical political changes that have affected a number of Arab countries over the past 4 years, the toppling of regimes and the organization of the first fair and free elections in several Arab states have allowed Islamist parties to rise to power. This highly visible political trend has caused mixed reactions, both within these countries and internationally. Prior to the Arab Spring, most countries in the region banned Islamist movements from forming political parties. For decades, members of such movements were jailed, tortured, and exiled from their home countries. Even in those states where Islamist political parties were allowed, they had limited freedom and were under the scrutiny of the regimes, as was, for example, the Moroccan Justice and Development Party.
- Topic:
- Security, Political Violence, Democratization, Islam, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, and North Africa
3928. The Evolution of Turkey's Foreign Policy under the AK Party Government
- Author:
- Joerg Baudner
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Insight Turkey
- Institution:
- SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
- Abstract:
- This article aims to explain the evolution of Turkish foreign policy through the search for a foreign policy role concept. It will argue that the AK Party government has already adopted two different foreign policy role concepts. Thus, the changes in Turkish foreign policy can best be characterized as the adoption of a foreign policy role with many traits of civilian power (2002-2005), subsequent limited change (2005-2010) and the adoption of a regional power role (from 2010 on).
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Cold War, and Government
- Political Geography:
- America, Turkey, and Middle East
3929. The Wisdom of Syria's Waiting Game Foreign Policy Under the Assads, Bente Scheller
- Author:
- Jinan Bastaki
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Insight Turkey
- Institution:
- SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
- Abstract:
- How has the Syrian regime, being the 'odd man out' in the Middle East, survived for so many years under the Assads? Given its survival, what makes the current uprising, now nearing its third year, different? And did the Assads always act on ideological grounds? These are the central questions that scholar and foreign policy analyst Bente Scheller tries to answer in her book, The Wisdom of Syria's Waiting Game: Foreign Policy Under the Assads, by analyzing the Assads' foreign policy and the link to domestic policies and the current revolt.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria
3930. Turkey and the Arab Spring Leadership in the Middle East, Graham E. Fuller
- Author:
- Andrew A. Szarejko
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Insight Turkey
- Institution:
- SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
- Abstract:
- Some 15 to 20 years from today, it will be illuminating to examine how academic and policy circles read the period from early 2013 to late 2014 in Turkey. There are many competing narratives about the future of the country. One pessimistic reading that is currently popular with many American observers of Turkey goes as follows: the so-called "Turkish model" was all the rage just a couple years ago. Turkey was prospering and democratizing under the Justice and Development Party (AK Party), which was hailed for its successful fusion of Islamic values and democratic governance.
- Topic:
- Development and Governance
- Political Geography:
- America, Turkey, Middle East, and Arabia
3931. Interview: Yves Daccord
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- In the Middle East today there are armed groups that have no respect for the humanitarian imperative. What challenges does this present to the Red Cross? I see two key challenges. The first one is very basic. We want to maintain a very close relationship with people affected by conflict, and access these days is more complex because we are in a very polarized environment. Look at the Iraq front–the problem is not new but it is exacerbated. The second issue is to be able to engage governments and non-state armed groups on a very pragmatic basis on issues related to people under their control. That normally works rather well. What I have found more complex these days is to engage them on issues related to international humanitarian law and the Geneva conventions.
- Topic:
- Humanitarian Aid and Islam
- Political Geography:
- Geneva, Iraq, and Middle East
3932. The blue helmet blues
- Author:
- Richard Gowan
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- Imagine a dystopian future in which NATO, struggling against Islamist terrorism, has to deploy troops on a constant basis across Africa and the Middle East. Then all of a sudden it is struck by a series of calamities: more than 40 personnel are taken hostage in the Middle East, soldiers start dying on a weekly basis on the edge of the Sahara and an operation to handle an outbreak of ebola begins to spiral out of control. NATO, you might expect, would give up in exhaustion. After Afghanistan, western powers have little appetite for quagmires.
- Topic:
- NATO
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Africa, and Middle East
3933. Review: Camp David recalled
- Author:
- Burhan Wazir
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- The Middle East is a landscape littered with unrealized peace treaties, broken promises and failed intentions. In the four years since uprisings and reprisals took hold of Egypt, Syria, Libya, Bahrain, Oman and Tunisia, two diplomatic constants have dominated: The limited influence of American power, and a dearth of leadership in the region. Political intransigence and sectarian violence weren't always the norm in the Middle East. Lawrence Wright's new book, Thirteen Days in September, chronicles an era, almost four decades ago, when compromise was considered an asset. Over 13 days at Camp David in Maryland in 1978, US President Jimmy Carter was able to extract a peace treaty from Egyptian president Anwar Sadat and Israeli prime minister Menachem Begin. The accord is still the most lasting achievement to emerge from the Arab-Israeli conflict of the 20th century.
- Topic:
- Sectarian violence
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Libya, Syria, Egypt, Bahrain, Tunisia, and Oman
3934. Soldiers of Misfortune?
- Author:
- Thomas R. Mockaiti
- Publication Date:
- 05-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- Private contractors have become an essential but highly problematic element in the U.S. military's total force structure. The Army in particular relies heavily on contractors to perform duties that free up Soldiers for combat roles. The vast majority of these civilian employees provide logistical and technical support. They build facilities, do laundry, and staff dining halls on U.S. bases at home and abroad. While some of these contractors have been involved in issues of waste, fraud, and abuse, these issues do not have a significant Effect on the conduct of contingency operations, especially counterinsurgency (COIN) campaigns.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Middle East, and Arabia
3935. From War to Deterrence? Israel-Hezbollah Conflict Since 2006
- Author:
- Jean-loup Samaan
- Publication Date:
- 05-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- For 7 years now, the border area between Israel and Lebanon has witnessed calm and stability. At first sight, this has all the appearances of a paradox. The 2006 war between the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) and the Lebanese organization, Hezbollah, was followed neither by a peace agreement nor by a mere diplomatic process. Both sides prepared their forces to wage the next war and additionally have been confronted in past years to major changes in the distribution of power in the Middle East in the midst of the so-called “Arab Spring.”
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arabia
3936. Action Research in the Occupied Palestinian Territory and Israel
- Author:
- Kate Bowen
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- The Occupied Palestinian Territory and Israel (OPTI) is one of four Oxfam country projects delivering the Within and Without the State (WWS) programme, funded by the Department for International Development (DFID) from 2011 to 2016 under the Conflict, Humanitarian and Security Programme Partnership Arrangement (CHASE PPA). WWS is piloting innovative approaches to working with civil society to promote more accountable governance in conflict - affected and fragile contexts.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, and Humanitarian Aid
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Arabia
3937. Fostering Community Change in the West Bank
- Author:
- Louie Fooks
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- The Occupied Palestinian Territory and Israel (OPTI) is one of four Oxfam country programmes delivering the Within and Without the State (WWS) programme, funded by DFID from 2011 to 20 16 under the Conflict, Humanitarian and Security Programme Partnership Arrangement (CHASE PPA). WWS is piloting innovative approaches to working with civil society to promote more accountable governance in conflict-affected and fragile contexts.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, Political Economy, Governance, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Arabia
3938. Wages and Labor Market Slack: Making the Dual Mandate Operational
- Author:
- Adam S. Posen and David G. Blanchflower
- Publication Date:
- 09-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- In this paper we examine the impact of rises in inactivity on wages in the US economy and find evidence of a statistically significant negative effect. These nonparticipants exert additional downward pressure on wages over and above the impact of the unemployment rate itself. This pattern holds across recent decades in the US data, and the relationship strengthens in recent years when variation in participation increases. We also examine the impact of long-term unemployment on wages and find it has no different effect from that of short-term unemployment. Our analysis provides strong empirical support, we argue, for the assessment that continuing labor market slack is a key reason for the persistent shortfall in inflation relative to the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) 2 percent inflation goal. Further, we suggest our results point towards using wage inflation as an additional intermediate target for monetary policy by the FOMC.
- Topic:
- Economics, Markets, and Labor Issues
- Political Geography:
- United States and Middle East
3939. Turkey and the PKK: Saving the Peace Process
- Publication Date:
- 11-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The peace process to end the 30-year-old insurgency of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) against Turkey's government is at a turning point. It will either collapse as the sides squander years of work, or it will accelerate as they commit to real convergences. Both act as if they can still play for time – the government to win one more election, the PKK to further build up quasi-state structures in the country's predominantly- Kurdish south east. But despite a worrying upsurge in hostilities, they currently face few insuperable obstacles at home and have two strong leaders who can still see the process through. Without first achieving peace, they cannot cooperate in fighting their common enemy, the jihadi threat, particularly from the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. Increasing ceasefire violations, urban unrest and Islamist extremism spilling over into Turkey from regional conflicts underline the cost of delays. Both sides must put aside external pretexts and domestic inertia to compromise on the chief problem, the Turkey-PKK conflict inside Turkey.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, War, and Armed Struggle
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Asia
3940. TSG IntelBrief: Economic Drivers of an Iran Nuclear Deal
- Publication Date:
- 11-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Soufan Group
- Abstract:
- There are clear and compelling economic imperatives for Iran to accept a nuclear agreement with the P5+1 (U.S., Britain, France, Russia, China, and Germany) by a November 24 deadline. The Iranian public has chafed under comprehensive sanctions since 2010 and expect President Hassan Rouhani to deliver a nuclear agreement that enables the economy to recover and grow. U.S. and other P5+1 officials stress the economic opportunities for Iran that will result, including the eventual re-opening of Iran's oil and gas sector to foreign investment. Major international firms are poised to re-enter the Iranian market in the event of a nuclear deal, although firms will initially be cautious due to lingering uncertainty.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Arms Control and Proliferation, Islam, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, and Middle East
3941. The Islamic State
- Author:
- Richard Barrett
- Publication Date:
- 11-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Soufan Group
- Abstract:
- The self-styled Islamic State is an accident of history, emerging from multiple social, political and economic tensions in the Middle East and beyond. It has challenged the territorial divisions imposed on the region following the collapse of the Ottoman Empire by carving out for itself a large area of territory. But ultimately, its impact will flow as much from its challenge to established concepts of government, national sovereignty, and national identity. The Islamic State is most notable for the violence with which it asserts control, but its ruthless tactics will likely prevent the group from ruling effectively and building broader support beyond the front line fighters who protect its security and the authoritarian killers who patrol its streets.
- Topic:
- Security, Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arabia
3942. TSG IntelBrief: The Death of the Free Syrian Army?
- Publication Date:
- 11-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Soufan Group
- Abstract:
- The collapse of two prominent coalition-supported Syrian rebel groups at the hands of al-Qaeda-affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra (JN) has not just compounded doubts against the capabilities and loyalties of these groups but also doubt as to whether any "moderate" rebel group can succeed. This long-simmering uncertainty about arming and training rebel groups that aren't as cohesive or even as moderate as once hoped throws into question the prospects of an acceptable military solution to the almost four-year long Syrian civil war. The coalition-equipped rebel groups Harakat Hazm and the Syrian Revolutionary Front were overrun in northern Syria by JN-though most rebel groups have long cooperated with it and, unlike Washington, don't consider the group to be a terrorist organization. Reports of increased airstrikes against JN will further drive a wedge between most rebel groups and the U.S.-backed Free Syrian Army (FSA), that demands the primary target is the Bashar al-Assad regime and not extremist groups fighting it. The realities of settling the civil war exclusively, thus far, via rebel military might open up other avenues for non-military actors to assume a role in resolving the war; after all, there are an estimated 2.5 million refugees and another 6.5 internally displaced persons in Syria, with obvious needs that perhaps new Syrian civilian leadership might stand up to address.
- Topic:
- Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Foreign Aid
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
3943. TSG IntelBrief: The Islamic State: An Accident of History
- Publication Date:
- 11-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Soufan Group
- Abstract:
- The following IntelBrief is excerpted from The Soufan Group's recent long-form report on The Islamic State, which takes an in-depth look at the extremist group's operations across Iraq and Syria. From late 2011 up to today, The Islamic State has shown itself both tactically and strategically adept. After years of surviving as a persistently violent criminal/terrorist gang able to mount multiple synchronized attacks in urban areas in Iraq but little more, it achieved unparalleled gains when the collapse of government in northern and eastern Syria allowed it to expand across the border. At the same time, the sectarian approach of then-Prime Minister Nuri al Maliki had made the Sunni minority in Iraq ready to support any group that appeared to have the potential to reverse its increasing marginalization. It's accurate to say the group would still exist-but in nothing like its current form-had only one of those two catastrophes-Syria and Maliki-occurred; that both played out as they did made what has happened seem an almost inevitable accident of history.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
3944. TSG IntelBrief: From Bucca to Kobani: The Hybrid Ideology of the Islamic State
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Soufan Group
- Abstract:
- The reshaping of what is now the Islamic State (IS) began among the detainee populations in military prisons such as Camp Bucca in Iraq, where violent extremists and former regime personalities forged mutual interests over years of confinement IS is now a chimera of Ba'athist and takfiri ideologies, with the organizational skills of the former helping channel the motivational fervor of the latter It is more than a marriage of convenience between the two seemingly at-odds groups; the former Ba'athists among the group and the religious ideologues now have visions of a return to Sunni glory that merges Usama bin Ladin with Saddam Hussein While at smaller unit levels there will be conflict between the two halves of the whole-as witnessed in the fighting between IS and the Naqshbandi Army after the fall of Mosul-the former regime officers who are now senior leaders in IS appear fully committed to the ideals and goals of the group, a result of a thorough radicalization that has extended from imprisonment years ago up to now These prison-hardened fighters were so important to IS that they undertook a year-long campaign (2012-2013) called "Breaking the Walls" to free what would prove to be the last pieces needed for expansion.
- Topic:
- Islam, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arabia
3945. TSG IntelBrief: The Logic of Foreign Fighters as Suicide Bombers
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Soufan Group
- Abstract:
- While there is understandable concern that an unknown percentage of foreign fighters fighting for the so-called Islamic State (IS) might return to their home countries intent on continuing the fight, IS appears intent on using them in suicide attacks in both Iraq and Syria IS goes to great length to publicize the foreign fighters who die in suicide attacks, which greatly enhances the group in the eyes of unstable people looking for martyrdom, creating a feedback loop of death A recent statement by IS showed that 80% of the suicide attacks in Iraq between September and early October were committed by foreign fighters; this continues a trend of IS using their foreign fighters in suicide attacks while Iraqi fighters take on the role of traditional soldiers Along with Saudi nationals, who conducted 60% of the suicide attacks referenced above, fighters from North Africa consistently feature prominently in IS suicide attacks, which closely matches the suicide bombing statistics from the 2003 Iraq war, though now there are more suicide operatives from western Europe
- Topic:
- Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arabia
3946. TSG IntelBrief: Lack of Trust Hinders Second Sunni Awakening
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Soufan Group
- Abstract:
- Coalition airstrikes are intended to blunt the momentum of the self-declared Islamic State (IS) and provide time for a popular Sunni uprising that might never happen given the understandable lack of trust among all sides The Sunni Awakening that helped diminish the precursor group to IS in 2006-2009 is the successful outlier in Iraq's history of tragic uprisings; and it will not likely be replicated since the conditions that allowed it to succeed no longer exist To that end, one of the foundational assumptions of the effort to dismantle IS-that the Sunni tribes will soon rise up and oppose IS in a second Awakening-is built on uncertain ground Sunni tribal leaders realize there won't be anything near 2007-levels of support (material, financial, training) if they oppose IS en masse, and after gaining next to nothing politically after the first Awakening, there is no trust in a different outcome for any second Awakening Reports of a failed Sunni uprising in eastern Syria are additional disincentives for both Syrian and Iraqi Sunni populations to fight IS, and additional incentive to wait and see what external factors will emerge to change the status quo.
- Topic:
- Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Sectarian violence
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arab Countries
3947. TSG IntelBrief: Jordan and the War Next Door
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Soufan Group
- Abstract:
- In neighboring Iraq, over 1,100 Jordanians are believed to be fighting for the so-called Islamic State (IS) according to Jordanian former Prime Minister Maruf al-Bakhit, with another 200 having already died fighting Although that's only 0.0203% of Jordan's 6.4 million population, and enough for serious concern, it's testament to Jordanian society that with the constant fighting next door such a small percentage have taken up arms for IS After the 2005 Amman bombings, al Qaeda in Iraq (the precursor to IS) was widely despised in Jordan; now nine years later, over a thousand Jordanians are fighting for the same group In his October 18, 2014 remarks, Bakhit stated that there were between 2,000-4,000 Jordanians who adhere to the violent takfiri ideology most famously espoused by the late Jordanian Abu Mus'ab al Zarqawi Along with the fear of a radicalized population after a decade of war raging across two of its borders is the fear of what happens next in Iraq and Syria According to Bakhit, a partitioned Iraq is too problematic to work despite its obvious appeal amid the current fighting, with resources unevenly distributed across the country and Baghdad far too mixed for one side to claim.
- Topic:
- Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Sectarian violence
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arab Countries
3948. TSG IntelBrief: Saudi Arabia's Challenges
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Soufan Group
- Abstract:
- As King Abdullah remains out of sight, worries persist over Saudi Arabia's ability to handle its many domestic and foreign issues The Sunni-Shi'a divide is now seen largely in terms of competition for influence between Saudi Arabia and Iran But it is not just the Sunni-Shi'a tension which impacts the region as Saudi Arabia and Turkey also compete for primacy in the Arab Middle East; the three-way competition has been a key factor in the chronic conflicts in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen Common antipathy toward the self-declared Islamic State is the only glue that holds together the US-led coalition at this time: there's no consensus on how to defeat it, what to put in its place, and the role of Iran-issues made more complicated by questions about Saudi Arabia's internal decision process.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Islam, Power Politics, Counterinsurgency, and Sectarian violence
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Syria
3949. TSG IntelBrief: The Islamic State and the Divided Opposition
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Soufan Group
- Abstract:
- The self-declared Islamic State (IS)'s strategy of exploiting and exacerbating divisions among its opponents ranks as one of its greatest weapons, and one of the coalition's greatest weaknesses Turkey's airstrikes against the Kurdistan Workers' Party in southeast Turkey are the latest example-and perhaps most damaging in the near-term-of opponents of IS fighting each other instead of the group IS was sustained during its weakest period (2008-2010) in part by exploiting real tensions between various groups-Sunni vs Shi'a, Sunni vs Sunni, Sunni vs Kurd, etc-that prevented an "everybody vs IS" opposition that remains the only way to defeat the group IS will continue to create/exacerbate/leverage the differences between the US and Turkey, Saudi Arabia/UAE and Qatar, the Kurds and various parties, so much so that focus is more on tactically keeping the coalition together and less on strategically strangling IS.
- Topic:
- Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Sectarian violence
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Kurdistan
3950. TSG IntelBrief: Iran Nuclear Talks Intersect Regional Events
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Soufan Group
- Abstract:
- Iran is attempting to link greater cooperation against the so-called Islamic State (IS) organization to concessions by the P5+1 (US, UK, France, Russia, China, and Germany) in negotiations on Iran's nuclear program Iran and the P5+1 remain far apart on the core issue of Iran's uranium enrichment program, increasing the likelihood that the talks will be extended beyond the current deadline of November 24 Iran requires a nuclear deal to satisfy public expectations and to increase its influence on regional events, including the US-led effort against IS A key Iranian goal is to dissuade the coalition from expanding the anti-IS campaign to include destabilizing the Assad regime in Syria.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, China, United Kingdom, Iran, Middle East, France, Germany, and Syria
3951. Exploring the Prospects for Russian-Turkish Cooperation in a Turbulent Neighborhood
- Author:
- Dmitri V. Trenin and Memduh Karakullukçu
- Publication Date:
- 09-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Even though tensions over Ukraine will inevitably cast a shadow over the bilateral relationship, Russia and Turkey—a NATO member—continue to share a range of important interests. Indeed, there are a number of areas in which the two can work together in their common neighborhood, which stretches from the South Caucasus and the Levant to Central Asia and Afghanistan. A high-level working group on Russian-Turkish regional cooperation has sketched a forward-looking approach for Russia and Turkey in tackling regional challenges.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Asia
3952. Qatar and the Arab Spring: Policy Drivers and Regional Implications
- Author:
- Kristian Coates Ulrichsen
- Publication Date:
- 09-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- During the Arab Spring, Qatar moved away from its traditional foreign policy role as diplomatic mediator to embrace change in the Middle East and North Africa and support transitioning states. Regional actors viewed Qatar's approach as overreaching, and skepticism of Doha's policy motivations increased. Qatar's new leadership, which came to power in June 2013, is adapting by reverting to a more pragmatic foreign policy and addressing the fallout from its support for Islamist movements in the region.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Democratization, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, and Qatar
3953. Dr. Hans Blix: Non-Use of Armed Force in State Relations - an Evolving Norm
- Author:
- Hans Blix
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Columbia University World Leaders Forum
- Abstract:
- This World Leaders Forum program titled, Non-Use of Armed Force in State Relations - an Evolving Norm, features an address by Dr. Hans Blix, former Executive Chairman of the United Nations Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission for Iraq, followed by a question and answer session with the audience.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arabia
3954. The Shale Revolution and the New Geopolitics of Energy
- Author:
- Robert A. Manning
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The shale revolution, the combination of computer-aided horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing known as “fracking,” already has had a profound multidimensional impact. After the breakthroughs in information technology (IT) and biotechnology, shale may be the most transformational technological change so far in the twenty-first century. This report argues that shale gas and tight oil has: begun to radically shift global energy markets and redraw the global energy map, forty years after the Arab oil embargo; dramatically shifted the outlook for US energy security and our national strategic calculus; altered geopolitics, making the Western Hemisphere—Canada, the United States, Mexico, Brazil—the new center of gravity for oil and gas production; turned the future of oil debate on its head; debate about whether or not “peak oil” has been reached is over. Now the issue is whether or not we are approaching “peak demand;” has altered market economics to slow the deployment of wind, solar, and nuclear energy and a transition to a post-petroleum economy; yet also reduced US greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by displacing coal as a source of electricity; strengthened the US economy with cheap gas prices triggering a resurgence in US manufacturing and; potentially repositioned the United States vis-à-vis the Middle East and Asia.
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Canada, Asia, Brazil, and Mexico
3955. Bringing Back the Palestinian Refugee Question
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The Palestinian refugee question, like the refugees themselves, has been politically marginalised and demoted on the diplomatic agenda. Yet, whenever the diplomatic process comes out of its current hiatus, the Palestinian leadership will be able to negotiate and sell a deal only if it wins the support or at least acquiescence of refugees – because if it does not, it will not bring along the rest of the Palestinian population. Refugees currently feel alienated from the Palestinian Authority (PA), which they regard with suspicion; doubt the intentions of Palestinian negotiators, whom they do not believe represent their interests; and, as one of the more impoverished Palestinian groups, resent the class structure that the PA and its economic policies have produced. As a result of their isolation, refugees in the West Bank and Gaza are making demands for services and representation that are reinforcing emerging divisions within Palestinian society and politics. There arguably are ways to address refugee needs, both diplomatic and practical, that are not mutually exclusive with core Israeli interests. This report examines what could be done on the Palestinian side to mitigate the risk that the Palestinian refugee question derails a future negotiation.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Refugee Issues, and Peacekeeping
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Arabia
3956. International Shifts and Their Security Impact on the Gulf: Key Trends and Key Numbers
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman
- Publication Date:
- 12-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- I have been asked to help set the stage for this conference by looking at the broader issues that can address the issue of A World with No Axis? International Shifts and their Impact on the Gulf. I have spent enough time in the Gulf over the years to know how often people have strong opinions, interesting conspiracy theories, and a tendency to ignore hard numbers and facts. We all suffer from the same problems, but today I'm going to focus as much on f act s and numbers as possible. I'm only going to select only a portion of the key trends and numbers involved in my oral remarks , but I will leave the conference with a much longer paper that lists a fuller range of such data. This paper that will also be on the CSIS web site, along with a series of very detailed papers on the military balance in the Gulf. If you want to provide me with your card, I'll also make sure the papers involved are sent to your directly.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, International Security, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Middle East, Arabia, and Qatar
3957. Is Brazil a 'Responsible Stakeholder' or a Naysayer?
- Author:
- Esther D. Brimmer
- Publication Date:
- 09-2014
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Washington Quarterly
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Will aspiring liberal democracies help maintain the current liberal international order? This current order rests on promoting and maintaining five pillars: peace and security; the market economy, especially international trade and investment; human rights and humanitarian action; sustainable development; and global spaces. Each of these areas is large and complex, and the emergence of new powers is likely to alter that system but not destabilize it.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Middle East, Brazil, and Caribbean
3958. Competitive Multipolarity in the Middle East
- Author:
- Kristina Kausch
- Publication Date:
- 09-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The Middle Eastern and North African region is in flux, while attempts to identify a new dominant structural logic have been limited so far. For the time being, the new “order” appears to consist of the absence of any one clear-cut organising principle and in overlapping, dynamic, often contradictory geopolitical developments. Among many other features, the geopolitical equation in the Middle East is being altered by a number of larger structural shifts regarding the position and relative weight of specific actors. Notable instances include the relative loss of influence of the United states and Europe; the game-changing regional roles of Russia and China, respectively; the resurgence of the IranianSaudi rivalry; the emergence of a number of regional “swing states”; and the increasing role of non-state actors in shaping regional developments. the complexity of this outlook makes policy choices by regional and external actors ever more difficult.
- Topic:
- Non State Actors
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Middle East, and North Africa
3959. Israel Lobby in the US and Iran-P5+1 Negotiations
- Author:
- Alireza Ahmadi
- Publication Date:
- 03-2014
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Iranian Review of Foreign Affairs
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic Research (CSR)
- Abstract:
- The Israel lobby in Washington is a network of organizations and community groups dedicated to influencing American policy towards the Middle East. Their success and access has made them the model for lobbies on Washington's Capitol Hill and US Government. Long known for successfully influencing American policy towards the Middle East, the lobby now faces its strongest challenge in history at a time when it is also facing what it considers a historically significant issue. The interim accord between Iran and members of the P5+1 have led to turmoil in Washington over the wisdom and plausibility of President Obama's diplomatic approach and about the softening of the current US posture towards Iran. In this debate, powerful conservative groups, a number of key Democrats, and the Israel lobby have been pit against progressive groups and Democratic elected officials in the Senate and the White House. In this article, I will briefly look at the history of the Israel lobby in America and explore its evolution as well as investigate the factors that, over time, caused it to take on a hard-line posture and drift towards the right. I will explore the tactics and strategies that the Israel lobby-the America Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) in particular-has undertaken to influence the outcome of events and undermine the possibility of diplomatic conflict resolution. Finally, I will examine the pitfalls and challenges hard-line pro-Israel groups face in effectively pursuing these policies and the long term harm they expose themselves to in alienating progressive and pro-peace groups.
- Topic:
- Government and History
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, Iran, Washington, Middle East, and Israel
3960. Indo-Israel Relations and the Iranian Factor
- Author:
- Amir Sajedi
- Publication Date:
- 03-2014
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Iranian Review of Foreign Affairs
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic Research (CSR)
- Abstract:
- India and Israel share many common characteristics such as having emerged from a colonial past of the British Empire, and having a parliamentary system which encompasses moderate and radical forces. In spite of this shared background, for nearly four decades, India did not show interest in establishing complete diplomatic relations with Israel, and in general supported and voted for defense of the Palestinians and the Arab Middle-Eastern governments and for condemnation of Israel in world bodies such as the United Nations. However the broad changes in the world stage arising in the 1990's such as the break-up of the Soviet Union, the occupation of Kuwait by Iraq and the subsequent crisis in the Middle-East, the rise of the price of oil, the reduction in the remittances sent back to India by the returning Indian workers from Arab countries, and also the change of the political climate in India, the increase in support for the right wing (B J P) all changed the direction of the attitudes of most Indian politicians towards Israel. But developing Indo-Israel relations does not affect Indo-Iran's relations.
- Topic:
- Government
- Political Geography:
- Britain, Middle East, India, Israel, Kuwait, Soviet Union, Palestine, Arabia, and United Nations
3961. Addressing the Food, Water, and Energy Nexus: Transatlantic Perspectives and Africa's Great Chance
- Author:
- Peter Engelke
- Publication Date:
- 12-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- This report explores how the relationships between food, water, and energy resources shape our world and its future, with emphasis on Africa and the transatlantic region. Called the food-water-energy “nexus,” the interdependencies between these resources are fundamental to all human endeavor on Earth. Understanding this nexus and managing it effectively is a critical challenge for policymakers and thought leaders in the transatlantic arena. Solving the challenges found on the African continent might present both the greatest task and the greatest reward. The potential pitfalls of failing to tackle Africa's foodwater- energy challenges are enormous, for Africans themselves and for all countries sharing the Atlantic Ocean space. But the potential downside is more than matched by the potential upside, and the gains to be had from solving nexus problems in Africa might prove as profound as any set of goals in the world.
- Topic:
- Development, Energy Policy, Water, and Food
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Middle East, and North Africa
3962. Possible Frameworks for Verification of a WMD/DVs Free Zone in the Middle East - The Nuclear Dimension
- Author:
- Olli Heinonen
- Publication Date:
- 08-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- The Resolution on the Middle East adopted without vote at the 1995 Nuclear Non- Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review and Extension Conference calling for the establishment of a zone in the Middle East free of nuclear weapons, and all other weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and their delivery vehicles (DVs), was reaffirmed by the 2000 and 2010 NPT Review Conferences. The 2010 Conference mandated the Secretary- General of the United Nations and the co-sponsors of the 1995 Resolution, in consultation with the states of the region, to convene a conference in 2012, to be attended by all states of the Middle East. The mandate was the establishment of a Middle East zone free of nuclear and all other weapons of mass destruction, on the basis of arrangements freely arrived at by the states of the region, and with the full support and engagement of the nuclear-weapon states. The anticipated 2012 Conference was mandated to take the 1995 Resolution as its terms of reference.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
3963. Resettlement of Refugees from Syria: Increased commitments needed from international community in Geneva
- Publication Date:
- 12-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- On 9 December 2014 UNHCR will convene a ministerial level pledging conference in Geneva on resettlement and other forms of humanitarian admission for refugees from Syria.
- Topic:
- Human Rights and Humanitarian Aid
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
3964. Why Europe must stop outsourcing its security
- Author:
- Richard Gowan and Nick Witney
- Publication Date:
- 12-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation
- Abstract:
- The EU claims to be in the business of “crisis management” – ready if need be to make “robust” military interventions to control conflict, especially in its neighbourhood. In practice, it now prefers to “outsource” such interventions to others, notably the United Nations and African Union (AU), limiting itself to supporting roles. This is not just shabby; it also saps Europe's influence in a world in which European interests and values are increasingly contested. And it places too great a burden on organisations such as the UN and AU. Unless the EU rediscovers a willingness to bear the costs and risks of military operations to control conflict, Europe can expect everintensifying refugee pressure on its southern borders. Although military force will not help in Ukraine or the turmoil of the Middle East, the EU could make a big difference if it were prepared to do more in crisis management in Africa. The EU could contribute to or complement UN or AU efforts in a variety of ways. Responding to the crisis in UN peacekeeping, Ban Kimoon has ordered a review. New EU High Representative Federica Mogherini should do the same, involving outside experts in a stock-take of international efforts to control conflict to Europe's south and commissioning specific proposals to get the EU back to playing a properly responsible security role.
- Topic:
- Human Welfare, Humanitarian Aid, United Nations, and Refugee Issues
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, Ukraine, and Middle East
3965. Iran, Evolving Threats, and Strategic Partnerships in the Gulf
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman
- Publication Date:
- 12-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Internal ethnic and sectarian tensions, civil conflict, continued instability, failed governance and economy. Syrian civil war. Iraq, Lebanon, “Shi'ite crescent.” Sectarian warfare and struggle for future of Islam through and outside region. Sunni on Sunni and vs. Shi'ite struggles Terrorism, insurgency, civil conflict linked to outside state and non-state actors. Wars of influence and intimidation Asymmetric conflicts escalating to conventional conflicts. Major “conventional” conflict threats: Iran-Arab Gulf, Arab-Israeli, etc. Economic warfare: sanctions, “close the Gulf,” etc. Missile and long-range rocket warfare Proliferation, preventive strikes, containment, nuclear arms race, extended deterrence, “weapons of mass effectiveness”.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, International Security, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria
3966. Clarifying the Security Arrangements Debate: Israeli Forces in the Jordan Valley
- Author:
- Michael Eisenstadt and Robert Satloff
- Publication Date:
- 02-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- U.S., Israeli, and Palestinian negotiations could lower the heat and shed some light on the clash over Jordan Valley security arrangements by promoting a public debate grounded in the facts of current and prospective Israeli deployments.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, Territorial Disputes, and Peacekeeping
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and North America
3967. Implications of a Sisi Presidency
- Author:
- Adel El-Adawy
- Publication Date:
- 02-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The military chief has some strong assets and likely staying power, but he will still face great pressure if he is elected as anticipated, since the benchmark for success will be his ability to satisfy an Egyptian polity filled with unrealistically high socioeconomic expectations.
- Topic:
- Regime Change, Reconstruction, Military Affairs, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
3968. The Ukraine Crisis and the Middle East
- Author:
- James F. Jeffrey
- Publication Date:
- 03-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The Ukraine situation will affect Washington's Middle Eastern priorities, but not to such a degree that it will stymie a strong U.S. response to Russian actions, since America has the power to act in the region without Moscow if necessary. Ukraine could well make it necessary.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Territorial Disputes
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Ukraine, and Middle East
3969. Egypt's Arms Deal with Russia: Potential Strategic Costs
- Author:
- David Schenker and Eric Trager
- Publication Date:
- 03-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Cairo's possible purchase of advanced weapons systems from Russia could become another irritant in U.S.-Egyptian relations.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Economics, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Ukraine, Middle East, and Egypt
3970. Turkey's Muted Reaction to the Crimean Crisis
- Author:
- Soner Cagaptay and James F. Jeffrey
- Publication Date:
- 03-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Issues such as energy dependence, deep-rooted fears of the Russian military, and Black Sea navigation policy all offer clues to Prime Minister Erdogan's vacillating response to Russian activities in Crimea.
- Topic:
- Territorial Disputes and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Turkey, Ukraine, Middle East, and Asia
3971. Israel's Governance Law: Raising the Electoral Threshold
- Author:
- Neri Zilber
- Publication Date:
- 03-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Far from disenfranchising certain groups, the pending legislation could spur smaller parties to form new political alliances that would likely favor the center-left opposition in future elections. As the Israeli Knesset prepares to pass a series of electoral reforms under the rubric of a new "Governance Law," one provision has drawn particularly strong criticism: the raising of the threshold required for political parties to obtain seats in the legislature to 3.25% of total votes cast. Media attention has focused on opposition concerns about the measures being "anti-democratic" and potentially disenfranchising Arab Israeli citizens. Yet close analysis of recent electoral results and political realities indicates that the new law could actually help the Israeli center and left.
- Topic:
- Mass Media, Governance, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arabia
3972. The Assad Regime Winning by Inches?
- Author:
- Jeffrey White
- Publication Date:
- 03-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The regime's recent military successes are by no means sweeping, but its incremental gains in Aleppo and Damascus belie perceptions of stalemate and could shift the war's direction in its favor. The fighting in Syria is frequently described as either a stalemate or a war of attrition -- there are few dramatic movements and no decisive actions, even though both sides repeatedly declare that they are winning and the other side is losing. And some have suggested that there is "no military solution."
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Armed Struggle, and Authoritarianism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
3973. Jordan's Energy Balancing Act
- Author:
- Simon Henderson and David Schenker
- Publication Date:
- 03-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- A deal to buy Israeli natural gas can help mitigate the kingdom's energy shortage and steer Amman away from problematic nuclear plans, but it risks stirring domestic opposition. In February, two private Jordanian firms signed a contract with a private U.S.-Israeli consortium to import natural gas from Israel's giant Tamar field, located under the bed of the Mediterranean Sea fifty miles offshore from Haifa. The Arab Potash Company and the Jordan Bromine Company -- both partially owned by the Jordanian government -- will pay Houston-based Noble Energy and its partners $500 million over the course of fifteen years to supply a power plant at Jordanian industrial facilities by the Dead Sea. At just $33 million per year, the deal is not financially significant, but it may set a huge precedent in terms of fostering regional economic cooperation and establishing a framework for Jordanian energy security. The political challenges are significant, however, particularly following the March 10 shooting of a Jordanian man at an Israeli-controlled West Bank crossing point.
- Topic:
- Economics, Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, and Natural Resources
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Arabia
3974. Preventing an Iranian Breakout after a Nuclear Deal
- Author:
- David Pollock and James F. Jeffrey
- Publication Date:
- 03-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Washington must urgently reestablish the credibility of its military threat, along with other steps, to guard against noncompliance from Tehran.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and North America
3975. Iran's Evolving Maritime Presence
- Author:
- Michael Eisenstadt and Alon Paz
- Publication Date:
- 03-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The growing capabilities of Iran's navy will enhance the country's soft power and its peacetime reach, while providing an alternative means of supplying the "axis of resistance" if traditional means of civilian transport become untenable.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Peacekeeping, and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Gaza
3976. West Bank Violence and Gaza Rockets Could Spark Wider Conflict
- Author:
- Matthew Levitt
- Publication Date:
- 03-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- There is no guarantee that a peace deal will be reached within the current timeline, but a Palestinian return to armed struggle would be a far greater political, economic, and humanitarian disaster than any short-term frustration with the negotiations. Peace processes are rarely peaceful processes, and the current U.S.-led effort to reach an Israeli-Palestinian "framework agreement" is no exception. As the tempo of negotiations between the main parties picks up speed, more radical actors have reemerged to violently oppose the process, from Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) and the Popular Resistance Committees, to Salafi jihadist groups, to Marxist factions such as the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP). Many observers have focused on the sharp increase in rockets fired at Israel from Gaza in the past few weeks and the prospect of another Gaza war. But that issue, while crucial, has drawn media attention away from two equally troubling trends: the increase in violence across the West Bank, and new signs that some officials from the Palestinian Authority and its leading party, Fatah, may be hedging their bets and preparing for wider violence if the peace process fails.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Terrorism, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- United States and Middle East
3977. Iranian Aid to Fighters in the Gulf Peninsula
- Author:
- Lori Plotkin Boghardt
- Publication Date:
- 03-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- A number of U.S. interests could be served by expanding support to strategic Gulf partners in their efforts to curb Iranian aid to local fighters. On March 6, Bahrain's foreign minister told the UN Human Rights Council that the ongoing violence in his country "is directly supported by elements of the Islamic Republic of Iran." The statement does not accurately explain all political violence in Bahrain, but not every claim of Iranian support for violence should be assumed to represent part of a government propaganda campaign. U.S. intelligence assesses that Iran is in fact providing arms and more to Bahraini and other fighters in the Arabian Peninsula, and Washington should increase support to important Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) partners to curb it.
- Topic:
- Security, Human Rights, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
- Political Geography:
- Washington, Middle East, and United Nations
3978. Egypt's New Military Brass
- Author:
- Gilad Wenig
- Publication Date:
- 03-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- A closer look at how the supreme military council will operate now that Field Marshal Sisi has thrown his hat into the presidential ring, including a chart illustrating the SCAF's likely new membership. Today, following months of speculation, Field Marshal Abdul Fatah al-Sisi announced his resignation as Egypt's defense minister and his candidacy for president. Sedki Sobhi, former chief of staff under Sisi, has been promoted to colonel general -- one rank below field marshal -- and appointed as the new defense minister, while Mahmoud Hegazy, former director of military intelligence, has been promoted to lieutenant general and will be the new army chief of staff. The resultant restructuring of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) will likely put some of Sisi's closest allies in key positions and should provide him with a strong base of military support and influence once he wins the presidency as expected.
- Topic:
- Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Egypt
3979. Nuclear Kingdom: Saudi Arabia's Atomic Ambitions
- Author:
- Simon Henderson and Olli Heinonen
- Publication Date:
- 03-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Although Iran's nuclear potential will likely dominate talks between President Obama and King Abdullah on March 29, Riyadh's own nuclear plans should also be part of the discussion. A major probable consequence of Iran achieving a nuclear weapons capability is that Saudi Arabia will seek to match it. With President Obama currently rating the chances of diplomatic success as 50-50 and Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei giving a "zero" probability, this weekend's U.S.-Saudi summit will be an opportunity to check whether Saudi planning can help the diplomacy rather than hinder it.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Saudi Arabia
3980. U.S. Strategic Dialogues with Morocco and Algeria: Take Two
- Author:
- Vish Sakthivel
- Publication Date:
- 03-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Secretary Kerry's visit comes amid Morocco's efforts to expand its regional influence and an upcoming vote in Algeria. Next week, Secretary of State John Kerry will head to Rabat and Algiers to reconvene the Strategic Dialogues that were postponed in November when he had to travel to Geneva for urgent Iran negotiations. While the broader themes to be discussed remain the same, certain developments in the two countries' diplomatic positioning will likewise inform the talks.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Morocco
3981. Palestinian Public Opinion Offers Abbas Much Room for Maneuver
- Author:
- David Pollock
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- A closer look at Palestinian views on prisoner releases, the Jewish state question, economic needs, and other issues suggests diplomatic openings are far from exhausted. As the United States works to salvage the Israeli-Palestinian peace talks, the Palestinian public in the West Bank and Gaza is more prepared to accept various diplomatic compromises than official positions or elite attitudes would suggest. A number of new polls by different Palestinian pollsters, and in-depth discussions with Palestinian scholars and others in late March, indicate that Palestinian Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas has greater latitude to make a deal than is often supposed. The polls cited here are from the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) and Arab World for Research and Development (AWRAD), both based in Ramallah, and the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion (PCPO), based in Bethlehem.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and North America
3982. U.S. Policy and the Israeli-Palestinian Impasse, Part II: Assessment and Prospects
- Author:
- Robert Satloff
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The current impasse in Israeli-Palestinian talks is buffeted by a series of profound global and regional challenges, including Ukraine, Iran, and Syria, among others. In the immediate arena, while Israel and the Palestinian Authority may have dysfunctional political and diplomatic relations, they also have reasonably effective security cooperation and economic coordination. Therefore, a principal challenge for U.S. policy and for local leaders is to find ways to preserve, even enhance, the latter even as disagreement over the former worsens.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, Ukraine, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Syria, and North America
3983. The U.S. Role in Iraq's Postelection Politics
- Author:
- Michael Knights
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Washington has rightfully avoided backing a candidate in next week's elections, but it should still use counterterrorism assistance and other levers to push Baghdad on pluralism and KRG oil revenue sharing during the presumably lengthy transition period. On April 30, the Iraqi public will vote in national parliamentary elections, establishing the next four-year term of the 328-seat Council of Representatives. Thereafter, an equally consequential bargaining process will commence, taking the formation of the next government out of the public's hands and cloistering it behind closed doors. The United States has repeatedly prodded Baghdad to ensure that the vote is held on time, in all districts, and in a free and fair manner. Washington's role in the government formation process could be equally constructive, but it presents a far trickier challenge. Indeed, how the U.S. government acts during the postelection process could set the tone for bilateral relations throughout the next government's term.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Terrorism, and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Washington and Middle East
3984. The Hamas-Fatah Reconciliation Agreement: Too Early to Judge
- Author:
- Ehud Yaari and Neri Zilber
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Even as the deal offers short-term political benefits for both sides, it fails to resolve key issues separating them. The April 23 Fatah-Hamas reconciliation agreement announced in the Gaza Strip is the latest in a long line of attempts to bridge the intra-Palestinian divide. The timing of the agreement amid U.S.-brokered peace talks, as well as both parties' internal weaknesses, points to more serious intent than past efforts. However, the deal fails to address the most sensitive issues separating the two sides and likely can be explained by the political boost it offers to both leaderships. The only certainty is that the reconciliation deal severely complicates efforts to extend Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations past their April 29 deadline.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
3985. Lebanon's Presidential Race
- Author:
- David Schenker
- Publication Date:
- 05-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The thorny parliamentary process of selecting a new president could rekindle violence if it results in substantial delays or further sectarian friction. Last week, Lebanon's parliament convened for the first round of balloting to elect a new president. While Samir Geagea -- who leads the Christian "Lebanese Forces" party, which is aligned with the pro-Western March 14 coalition -- received the most votes, he failed to secure the requisite two-thirds parliamentary support. In the coming weeks, legislators are slated to continue meeting until a president is selected. Unlike last week's session, in which the Hezbollah-led March 8 bloc did not challenge Geagea's candidacy, the voting promises to become increasingly contentious in subsequent rounds. Perennial sectarian tensions exacerbated by the war next door in Syria have complicated the historically wrought and arcane election process. Should a compromise candidate not emerge by May 25, the term of current president Michel Suleiman will expire, leaving the post vacant. In the past, the presidency -- which by law must be held by a Christian -- was the dominant office in Lebanon's government. But the 1989 Taif Accord effectively stripped the position of its powers, delegating them to the prime minister, who must hail from the Sunni Muslim constituency. Given the post's largely symbolic nature, some might argue that the tense selection process is much ado about nothing. Yet the presidency remains an emotionally evocative issue for Lebanese Christians, and both the March 8 and March 14 blocs see a sympathetic chief executive as an important advantage worth fighting for.
- Topic:
- Religion, Power Politics, Regime Change, and Public Opinion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
3986. Islamists in Government: Do They Moderate Once in Power?
- Author:
- Haroon Ullah, Eric Trager, and Vish Sakthivel
- Publication Date:
- 05-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- A senior State Department advisor and two Washington Institute scholars discuss what lessons can -- and cannot -- be drawn from the Islamist political experience in Egypt, Pakistan, Morocco, and other countries.
- Topic:
- Islam, Religion, and Political Activism
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Middle East, Arabia, Egypt, and Morocco
3987. The Terrorist Funding Disconnect with Qatar and Kuwait
- Author:
- Lori Plotkin Boghardt
- Publication Date:
- 05-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Washington should look for small changes in Kuwait and Qatar's political and security calculus that could provide opportunities to support counter-terrorist financing measures there. On April 30, the U.S. State Department noted that private donations from Persian Gulf countries were "a major source of funding for Sunni terrorist groups, particularly...in Syria," calling the problem one of the most important counterterrorism issues during the previous calendar year. Groups such as al-Qaeda's Syrian affiliate, Jabhat al-Nusra, and the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), previously known as al-Qaeda in Iraq, are believed to be frequent recipients of some of the hundreds of millions of dollars that wealthy citizens and others in the Gulf peninsula have been donating during the Syrian conflict.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Terrorism, and Border Control
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Washington, Middle East, Kuwait, Arabia, Syria, and Qatar
3988. Salafi Jihadists on the Rise in Jordan
- Author:
- David Schenker
- Publication Date:
- 05-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The longer the war in Syria continues, the greater the threat these fighters will likely pose. Last week, ten Jordanian Islamists who were apprehended while attempting to join the jihad in Syria were sentenced by the State Security Court to five years of hard labor. And last month, Jordanian F-16 fighter jets destroyed a convoy purportedly carrying al-Qaeda-affiliated anti-Assad-regime rebels traversing the border from Syria. These "spillover" incidents are only the latest in a disturbing trend. Over the past year, reports of Jordanian Salafi jihadists have become routine, raising the specter of terrorism returning to the kingdom.
- Topic:
- Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Border Control
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, and Jordan
3989. Israel vs. al-Qaeda: Emerging Challenges on Two Fronts
- Author:
- Ehud Yaari and Michael Morell
- Publication Date:
- 05-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- A CIA veteran and an Israeli security expert discuss the growing presence of al-Qaeda affiliates in Sinai and Syria.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, International Security, and Armed Struggle
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
3990. Shabab al-Tawhid: The Rebranding of Ansar al-Sharia in Tunisia?
- Author:
- Aaron Y. Zelin
- Publication Date:
- 05-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Security crackdowns will not be enough to eradicate jihadist networks in Tunisia and Libya, which have the patience and ideological conviction to weather drastic reorganization. Eight months ago, the Tunisian government officially designated Ansar al-Sharia in Tunisia (AST) as a terrorist organization. Since then, Tunis has cracked down on the group's activities, going after both its dawa campaign (i.e., proselytization and social-welfare efforts) and any links members have to terrorist plots. On the whole, AST's public response has been to keep relatively quiet. Yet recent developments indicate that the group may be rebranding itself as Shabab al-Tawhid (ST; the Youth of Pure Monotheism), a shift that would have important implications for efforts to counter Tunisian jihadists and their associates in Libya.
- Topic:
- Islam, Religion, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Border Control
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Libya, Arabia, and Tunisia
3991. Decision Time on the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process: U.S. Strategy Hits a Critical Juncture
- Author:
- Robert Satloff
- Publication Date:
- 05-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- As narratives about the root causes of the impasse in Israeli-Palestinian negotiations take shape, U.S. leaders have a major decision to make about whether to disengage from diplomacy or deepen involvement in less high-profile ways.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
3992. The Battle for Southern Syria Heating Up
- Author:
- Ehud Yaari
- Publication Date:
- 05-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Recent developments indicate a credible, previously unseen rebel threat to Damascus. While rebel militias have lately suffered serious setbacks in central and northern Syria, they are now recording significant successes in the south -- the region lying between Damascus and the Israeli and Jordanian borders. Syrian president Bashar al-Assad's loyalists are on the defensive on all related fronts, risking the loss of this strategically important sector. It is becoming increasingly evident that a rebel push toward the capital from the south may be more promising militarily than an offensive from the so-far-stalemated front lines north of Damascus. The next few weeks may witness further major rebel gains on the southern front, which may ultimately pose the main threat to Assad's control.
- Topic:
- Terrorism and Armed Struggle
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
3993. Morocco's Approach to Countering Violent Extremism
- Author:
- Mohamed Salah Tamek
- Publication Date:
- 05-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Morocco has had a largely successful record of countering violent extremism within its borders, including the dismantling of numerous cells linked to al-Qaeda core or its North African offshoot, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). Thousands of suspects have been arrested for perpetrating assassinations, assaults, and robberies; huge caches of heavy weapons have been confiscated; and authorities have foiled many attempts to attack security services, tourist attractions, diplomatic delegations, and places of worship for Christians and Jews. In addition, two channels of recruitment for jihadists in Mali were dismantled in late 2012, and two months ago, Moroccan and Spanish security forces jointly dismantled a transnational cell recruiting fighters for Syria and Mali.
- Topic:
- Security, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Middle East, Syria, Morocco, and Northern Mali
3994. Iran and Bahrain: Crying Wolf, or Wolf at the Door?
- Author:
- Matthew Levitt
- Publication Date:
- 05-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The Bahraini government will need to distinguish better between protestors and terrorists if it wants Washington and other foreign partners to believe its claims of Iranian support for local militants. On May 5, in what has become an increasingly typical event in Bahrain, several individuals threw Molotov cocktails at a police post in a Shiite village, damaging storefronts but causing no casualties. Such incidents have intensified over the past few months in villages surrounding the capital, Manama -- in March, three police officers were killed by a bombing in al-Daih; last month, an explosion wounded another officer in the same village; days later, a police car was firebombed in Hamad Town.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Political Violence, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Washington, Middle East, and Bahrain
3995. Solving the Syrian Knot: Dynamics within the UN Security Council and Challenges to its Effectiveness
- Author:
- Esmira Jafarova
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Connections
- Institution:
- Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
- Abstract:
- This article intends to highlight the dynamics within the UN Security Council 1 (UNSC) with regard to the events in the Syrian Arab Republic that have unfolded in the wake of the so-called "Arab Spring" and perturbed the entire region of the Middle East. What had begun as peaceful demonstrations against the incumbent leadership of the country very quickly transformed into the violent conflict that has raged for about three years. As a primary world body fulfilling the watchdog functions over the protection of international peace and security, the UNSC was overwhelmed by the highly dynamic nature of the situation on the ground, and was embroiled in intensive deliberations on the ways to solve the Syrian crisis.
- Topic:
- Security
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, and Syria
3996. The Models of Sovereignty in the South Caucasus
- Author:
- Gayane Novikova
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Connections
- Institution:
- Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
- Abstract:
- Over the last five to six years we have witnessed dramatic changes in the international security environment-changes that have directly influenced developments in the South Caucasus. Among the most significant changes are the world economic crisis, the Arab awakening, and the turbulence and civil wars all over North Africa and the Middle East.
- Topic:
- Development and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and North Africa
3997. The Resurgence of Al-Qaeda in Syria and Iraq
- Author:
- Azeem Ibrahim
- Publication Date:
- 05-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- The Syrian civil war has allowed al-Qaeda to recover from its setbacks up to 2010. Its main affiliate in the region seems to be testing a new strategy of collaboration with other Salafist-Jihadist groups and a less brutal implementation of Sharia law in areas it controls. In combination, this might allow the Al Nusrah Front to carve out the sort of territorial control of a region (or state) that al-Qaeda has sought ever since its eviction from Afghanistan. On the other hand, Syria has also seen a civil war between two al-Qaeda inspired factions (Al Nusrah and the Iraq based Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant [ISIS]) and indicates there are limits to its ability to cooperate with other anti-Assad factions and gain popular appeal. The extent that the Syrian civil war offers the means for al-Qaeda to recover from its earlier defeats will determine whether the organization has a future, or if it will become simply an ideology and label adopted by various Islamist movements fighting their own separate struggles.
- Topic:
- Security, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Iraq, Middle East, and Syria
3998. From the Editor, Spring 2014
- Author:
- Craig Biddle
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Objective Standard
- Institution:
- The Objective Standard
- Abstract:
- Welcome to the Spring 2014 issue of The Objective Standard, which begins our ninth year of publication. I want first and foremost to extend an enormous “thank you” to all of our subscribers, donors, and writers, whose material, moral, and intellectual support made our first eight years possible and laid the groundwork for what is to come. Without your initial and sustained support, TOS simply would not exist. With your support, this hub of Objectivist intellectual output is not merely existing, but thriving, expanding, and reaching more and more minds with the ideas on which human life and civilized society depend. From all of us at TOS: Thank you. Now, on to the contents at hand.
- Topic:
- Islam
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
3999. Aristotle Versus Religion
- Author:
- Andrew Bernstein
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Objective Standard
- Institution:
- The Objective Standard
- Abstract:
- Careful observation of history reveals two dramatically different approaches to life on earth. In one approach, we see Islamic jihadists perpetrating murderous terrorist assaults around the world, virtually daily. The attack on 9/11 is the worst Islamist atrocity to date, but many have followed, including a recent attack at a shopping mall in Nairobi, in which Islamists murdered scores of people and wounded hundreds more. Similarly, we see Christians, throughout a full millennium during which they held unchallenged cultural and political power, relentlessly hunting down and slaughtering untold thousands for the “crime” of disagreeing with religious orthodoxy. And we see Hindus, Muslims, Buddhists, and Sikhs on the Indian subcontinent engaging in a seething inferno of violence in which millions have been slain. In the other approach, we see something utterly different. We see Copernicus, Darwin, and Einstein advancing revolutionary theories in astronomy, biology, and physics. We see Edison, Bell, and the Wright brothers pioneering life-promoting inventions. We see writers from Homer to Ayn Rand dramatizing the heroism and greatness possible to individuals committed to man's earthly existence. Here, then, are two different visions of human life: one driven by faith, the other by reason—one religious, the other secular—one irrational, often violently so; the other, rational, often brilliantly so. Most of Western history has been a struggle between these two contrasting philosophies. Religious mysticism—in this instance, proceeding from ancient Judaism—is a pernicious force in human life. Rational secularism—the creation and legacy of ancient Greek culture—is vital to proper human life. By observing Judaism, Christianity, and Islam relative to the ideas of the ancient Greeks, we can see that the essentially secular approach of Greek culture—especially the rational method Aristotle developed—is responsible for golden ages and renaissances, both in the West and in the Middle East; and that the faith-based approach of religion, when intellectually dominant, is responsible for cultural stagnation and dark ages. A clear understanding of the nature of these opposing forces—and of the struggle between them—is essential to the preservation of civilization. An essentialized survey should start at the beginning. The Greeks Give Birth to Western Civilization What did the Greeks contribute to human life? As the eminent historian Will Durant wrote, “there is hardly anything secular in our culture that does not come from Greece. Schools, gymnasiums, arithmetic, geometry, history . . . physics, biology . . . poetry, music, tragedy, comedy, philosophy . . . ethics, politics, idealism, philanthropy . . . democracy: these are all Greek words for cultural forms . . . in many cases first matured . . . by the abounding energy of the Greeks.” Philosophy is the fundamental value that men inherited from the Greeks, for it seeks to answer life's most important questions: What is the nature of the universe? How do men gain knowledge? What is human nature? What is the good? What is a good society? Philosophy attempts to give rational rather than mythic or faith-based answers to such questions. . . .
- Topic:
- Islam
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
4000. A Saudi Arabian Defense Doctrine: Mapping the expanded force structure the Kingdom needs to lead the Arab world, stabilize the region, and meet its global responsibilities
- Author:
- Nawaf Obaid
- Publication Date:
- 05-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- This proposal for a Saudi Arabian Defense Doctrine (SDD) hopes to initiate an essential internal reform effort that responds to the shifting demands of today and the potential threats of tomorrow. In the last decade, the world has watched as regime changes, revolutions, and sectarian strife transformed the Middle East into an unrecognizable political arena plagued by instability, inefficiency, and failing states. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA)—the Arab world's central power and last remaining major Arab heavyweight on the international scene—has emerged as the ipso facto leader responsible for regional stability and development.
- Topic:
- Security, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and Military Strategy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arabia