Political Geography: Middle East / Publication Year: within 25 Years

301. Richard A. Clarke | 'Taking the Edge Off the Middle East' Ep. 2

Author:: Brian Katulis
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: A series of casual conversations with leading policy professionals on the most important happenings in the Middle East today - hosted by MEI VP for Policy Brian Katulis. After a decade of leadership, Richard A. Clarke recently retired as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Middle East Institute. He chats with Brian about what originally got him into public service, his 30 years working in U.S. government national security agencies (including the Pentagon, the State Department, and the White House National Security Council), and his recent move into writing fiction.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, National Security, and Public Service
Political Geography:: Middle East

302. Itamar Rabinovich on “Middle Eastern Maze”

Author:: Itamar Rabinovich
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Brookings’ Distinguished Fellow on Foreign Policy Itamar Rabinovich discusses his new book - “Middle Eastern Maze: Israel, the Arabs, and the Region” - as well as contemporary Israeli politics with MEI’s VP for Policy Brian Katulis.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

303. 'Retraumatized': Assessing the Impact of the Earthquake on Northern Syria's Humanitarian Crisis

Author:: Charles Lister, Dania Albaba, Nora Abdullah, Natasha Hall, and Alex Mahoney
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: The Syrian conflict, now in its 13th year, has generated a complex humanitarian emergency resulting from the dislocation of half of the country’s population and the disintegration of the Syrian public health system, greatly exacerbating the pre-existing global refugee crisis. The conflict and mass displacement have additionally had a severe psychological impact on civilians, resulting in high levels of mental health problems, such as depression, anxiety, and post-traumatic stress disorder. The earthquake that struck northern Syria on Feb. 6, 2023 — the worst in the region in 200 years — compounded and retraumatized an already acutely affected population. Last February, MedGlobal deployed a team of psychiatric professionals to conduct post-disaster mental health training in northwestern Syria — their experiences led to the publication of a groundbreaking new report: “Retraumatized: The Psychological Impact of the Earthquake on War-Torn Syria.” The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to host a discussion with the report’s authors, who will present their findings and policy recommendations and explore the many wider aspects of Syria’s humanitarian crisis, including the upcoming United Nations Security Council vote on cross-border aid access into northwestern Syria.
Topic:: Natural Disasters, Trauma, Humanitarian Crisis, and Earthquake
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

304. Roundtable with Special Representative Dilawar Syed (U.S. Business in Iraq)

Author:: Dilawar Syed and Randa Slim
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: The Middle East Institute (MEI) was pleased to host a roundtable with the U.S. State Department's Special Representative for Commercial and Business Affairs, Dilawar Syed, moderated by Paul Salem, President & CEO with Randa Slim, Senior Fellow and Director, Conflict Resolution & Track II Dialogues Program. SR Syed had recently returned from a delegation trip to Baghdad with the U.S.-Iraq Business Council (USIBC). In this roundtable, he briefed a private sector and policy audience about his findings. During his visit, he held high level bilateral meetings with senior Iraqi officials, including Prime Minister Al-Sudani. SR Syed also met with the Speaker of the Iraqi Council of Representatives, many of the Council of Representatives Iraq (COR) committees, and Iraqi entrepreneurs. SR Syed also spoke to opportunities and challenges for U.S. businesses in Iraq at large, responding to questions such as: Which economic sectors show the most promise for US-Iraqi economic cooperation in the short-, medium-, and long-term? What are the biggest challenges facing Iraq's economy and potential business partnerships with US companies? What were some of the private sector delegates impressions of Iraq today, and the economic opportunities available to US businesses? From this administration's perspective, how important (or high-priority) is our relationship with Iraq and what is the strategic rationale for improved and integrated economic cooperation? Looking past the delegation, how does the State Department intend to continue promoting active private sector partnerships? How do your Iraqi counterparts understand their relationship with the US, what are their hopes and fears as we look towards the future of this relationship, both economic and otherwise?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Business, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and United States of America

305. Perspectives from the Bonn Climate Change Conference Ahead of COP28

Author:: Mohammed Mahmoud, Athraa Khamis, and Neeshad Shafi
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: This year's Bonn Climate Change Conference featured events and discussions focusing on climate issues such as adaptation, mitigation, the global stocktake, and climate loss and damage. Progress on these issues at the Bonn Conference is intended to translate into potential draft decisions to be adopted at the COP28 meeting taking place in the UAE later this year. Mohammed Mahmoud discusses the details of the Bonn Conference, how it may have shaped the MENA climate change agenda, and other major outcomes with Athra Khamis and Neeshad Shafi, two of MEI’s non-resident scholars in the Climate and Water Program that attended the Bonn Conference.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Water, Adaptation, and Conference of the Parties (COP)
Political Geography:: Middle East and North Africa

306. France’s Foreign Policy towards Lebanon and its Discontents

Author:: Fadi Nicholas Nassar
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: The pair focus on the current state of affairs in Lebanon, historical trends in French policy towards the country and the region, and more in the latest episode of Middle East Focus.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Domestic Politics, History, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, France, and Lebanon

307. Ben Samuels | 'Taking the Edge Off the Middle East' Ep. 3

Author:: Brian Katulis and Ben Samuels
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Middle East Focus Presents: ‘Taking the Edge Off the Middle East’ with Brian Katulis A series of casual conversations with leading policy professionals on the most important happenings in the Middle East today - hosted by MEI VP for Policy Brian Katulis. Ben Samuels - U.S. correspondent for Haaretz - sits down with Brian to discuss how he got into journalism, the state of politics in Israel, and the country's ongoing judicial overhaul. *Note: this episode was recorded on June 8, 2023.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Journalism, and Judiciary
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

308. Prospects for Saudi Arabia-Israel Normalization

Author:: Alistair Taylor, Martin Indyk, Sanam Vakil, and Bilal Y. Saab
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: On this week's episode, MEI's Editor-In-Chief Alistair Taylor discusses the Biden administration’s push to reach a normalization accord between Saudi Arabia and Israel with Martin Indyk, Sanam Vakil, and Bilal Saab. While there are plenty of potential hurdles to reaching a deal — including Saudi Arabia’s steep demands, Israel’s far-right government, and challenging domestic politics here in the US — if done right, the potential geopolitical ramifications could be substantial.
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements, Geopolitics, Domestic Politics, Far Right, and Normalization
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Saudi Arabia

309. Oman Library Book Talk Series | The One-State Reality with Michael Barnett and Shibley Telhami

Author:: Michael Barnett and Shibley Telhami
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: The One State Reality: What is Israel/Palestine? (Cornell University Press, 2023), edited by Michael Barnett, Nathan J. Brown, Marc Lynch and Shibley Telhami, argues that a one state reality already predominates in the territories controlled by Israel and that current facts on the ground force a reconsideration of foundational concepts such as state, sovereignty and nation. Bringing together leading scholars to explore essential questions, The One State Reality is a catalyst for new thinking about future solutions to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
Topic:: Sovereignty, State, Israeli–Palestinian Conflict, and Nationhood
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

310. Climate Financing

Author:: Mohammed Mahmoud
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Director of MEI’s Climate and Water Program Mohammed Mahmoud speaks to energy and sustainable infrastructure expert Lucia Fuselli on the role of climate financing - a critical component of initiatives aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions and bolstering climate resilience.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Water, Infrastructure, Climate Finance, Sustainability, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Middle East and Global Focus

311. The Israel-Hamas war and prospects for a ground invasion

Author:: Joseph Votel and Bilal Y. Saab
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: An on-the-record briefing to discuss the military implications of Israel’s impending ground invasion in Gaza, featuring former CENTCOM Commander General (ret.) Joseph L. Votel and MEI Defense and Security Program Director Bilal Y. Saab.
Topic:: Security, Hamas, Armed Conflict, and October 7
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

312. Israel-Hamas war and the risk of regional escalation

Author:: Charles Lister and Firas Maksad
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: An on-the-record press briefing to discuss the Israel-Hamas war and the risks of a significant escalation across the broader Middle East given the expanded ground operation in Gaza, featuring MEI Counterterrorism and Syria program director Charles Lister and MEI Senior Fellow and Director of Strategic Outreach Firas Maksad.
Topic:: Hamas, Escalation, Regional Security, and October 7
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

313. The Israel-Hamas war and the role of Qatar and Egypt

Author:: Brian Katulis, Mirette F. Mabrouk, and Rachel Dooley
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: The Middle East Institute hosted an on-the-record press briefing to discuss the role of key regional partners Qatar and Egypt in the Israel-Hamas conflict, from the question of hostage negotiations being led by Doha to the evacuation of U.S. citizens and the wounded to Egypt. Recorded Tuesday, November 7, 2023.
Topic:: Negotiation, Hamas, Regional Politics, Hostage Crisis, and October 7
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, Egypt, and Qatar

314. Assessing Israel's military strategy in Gaza

Author:: Michael K. Nagata, Mick Mulroy, and Rachel Dooley
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: The Middle East Institute hosted an on-the-record press briefing to discuss Israel’s military strategy in Gaza, including the IDF’s successes and challenges in northern Gaza, the ramifications of a ceasefire versus a pause in fighting, and the growing humanitarian crisis. Recorded Tuesday, November 14, 2023.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Humanitarian Crisis, and Ceasefire
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

315. Iran and the Israel-Hamas War

Author:: Alistair Taylor and Alex Vatanka
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: On this week's episode, MEI's Editor in Chief Alistair Taylor talks to Iran Program Director Alex Vatanka about Iran and the Israel-Hamas war. As fighting rages in Gaza and the prospects for regional escalation continue to mount, Iran will remain a critical actor to watch. It is not only Israel’s main regional foe but also the leading provider of military aid and training for Hamas. Given the centrality of Iran in this latest Middle Eastern war, understanding how Tehran views the conflict and its endgame will be critical.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Hamas, Armed Conflict, Escalation, Military Aid, Regional Politics, and October 7
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

316. The debate inside Israel

Author:: Eran Etzion and Nimrod Goren
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: The Middle East Institute (MEI) hosted an on-the-record briefing titled 'The Debate Inside Israel' on Tuesday, November 21st, 2023, featuring Eran Etzion, former Deputy Head of Israel's National Security Council, and Nimrod Goren, MEI Senior Fellow for Israeli Affairs. The briefing delved into the growing internal debate in Israel over the country’s war aims and its handling of the conflict with Hamas, including discussions on calls for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation, the effectiveness of the war cabinet, and the response to the October 7 Hamas attack.
Topic:: National Security, Domestic Politics, Conflict, Hamas, Benjamin Netanyahu, Debates, and October 7
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

317. The Problem of Democracy: America, the Middle East, and the Rise and Fall of an Idea

Author:: Shadi Hamid and Thomas Carothers
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: In The Problem of Democracy: America, the Middle East, and the Rise and Fall of an Idea, author Shadi Hamid explores what he describes as the ‘democratic dilemma,’ the U.S. desire for democracy in theory but not in practice. Hamid cites the rise of Islamist parties during a wave of democratic elections across the Middle East, which he argues produced outcomes the U.S. was not intending, such as the empowerment of Hamas in Gaza following the 2006 Palestinian elections. Reviewing the lessons learned from the past two decades of U.S. policy in the Middle East, Hamid proposes ‘democratic minimalism’ as a new approach to democracy promotion. Instead of viewing democracy as a tool to usher in liberalism, economic development, and cultural progress, Hamid argues that democracy as an end in of itself should be prioritized over other liberal values. Please join us at the Middle East Institute for an in-person discussion with author Shadi Hamid and Thomas Carothers, Co-Director and Senior Fellow, Democracy, Conflict and Governance Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, on the strategy of U.S. democracy promotion abroad, the consequences of the democratic push in the early twenty-first century and the future shape of governance systems globally. Gönül Tol, MEI Senior Fellow and Director of the Turkey Program, will moderate the discussion.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Elections, Democracy, Islamism, and Hamas
Political Geography:: Middle East, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America

318. Will the Israel-Hamas Truce Be Extended?

Author:: Gerald Feierstein, Brian Katulis, and Rachel Dooley
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: The Middle East Institute (MEI) hosted an on-the-record briefing titled 'Will the Israel-Hamas Truce Be Extended?' on Wednesday, November 29, 2023, featuring former Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs and MEI Distinguished Senior Fellow Amb. Gerald Feierstein as well as MEI Vice President of Policy Brian Katulis. The briefing delved into the evolving dynamics arising from the temporary pause in fighting between Israel and Hamas, along with the potential for an extended truce and the release of more hostages and prisoners.
Topic:: Hamas, Armed Conflict, Hostage Crisis, October 7, and Truce
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

319. In the Middle East, Biden Is on the Razor’s Edge

Author:: Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: US President Joe Biden is walking on thin ice while he attempts to deal with the most serious crisis in the Middle East since the ill-conceived US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003. Biden has orientated his administration’s action along three tracks: supporting Israel; protecting as many Palestinian civilians as possible while also resuscitating the defunct Middle East peace process; and preventing the conflict from extending to the wider region.[1] The problem is, reconciling these three priorities may be impossible.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Civilians, Hamas, Protection, and October 7
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, North America, and United States of America

320. Saudi Arabia’s Balancing Game: The Palestinian Cause and Regional Leadership

Author:: Giulia Daga and Luigi Simonelli
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: In the hours following Hamas’s violent attack on Israel of 7 October, the Saudi authorities called for “an immediate de-escalation”, while noting that they had previously warned against the outcomes of “the continued occupation and depriving Palestinians of their legitimate rights and the repeated systematic provocations against their sanctities”.[1] In a more recent declaration, the Saudi Foreign Minister has reiterated the country’s “categorical rejection of calls for the forced displacement of the Palestinian people from Gaza, and its condemnation of the continued targeting of defenceless civilians there”.[2] Reportedly, the heavy retaliation measures adopted by Israel, whose bombing campaign against Gaza has been one of the most intense of this century,[3] also including the apparent use of white phosphorus,[4] resulted in the halt of the normalisation process between Saudi Arabia and Israel, which should have followed suit on the 2020 Abraham Accords. Only a few weeks before, on 20 September, the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had announced on US television that “every day, we get closer” to an agreement with Israel.[5] A few days later, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had reiterated the same optimism in front of the United Nations General Assembly general debate, insisting that the Palestinians should not be given “a veto over new peace treaties with Arab states”.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Leadership, Regional Power, and October 7
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Saudi Arabia

321. Europe is Stuck Over the Israel-Hamas War

Author:: Maria Luisa Fantappiè and Nathalie Tocci
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Since the horrific attack launched by Hamas on Israeli citizens on 7 October and the brutal ongoing Israeli military response, European governments and publics have rallied behind two diametrically opposite worldviews: unconditional support for Israel’s right to self-defence versus solidarity with Palestinians massacred by Israel’s military operation in Gaza. Europe should work proactively to chart its way in this inflammatory debate, rather than passively buying into the polarising narratives from Israeli and Arab public debates and allowing these to sow divisions, paralyse action, hamper credibility and poison democracies.
Topic:: Politics, European Union, Hamas, Narrative, and October 7
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

322. Critical Crossroads: Tunisia’s Choice between a Comprehensive EU Partnership and Economic Collapse

Author:: Ghazi Ben Ahmed
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: ince the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Tunisian authorities reached in October 2022 a staff-level agreement to support Tunisia’s economic policies, Tunisian President Kais Saied has been standing at the Rubicon. Lacking a vision to revive the Tunisian economy, President Saied has opted for a strategy of diversion and scapegoating. By blowing on the embers of xenophobia among his supporters and more recently by stoking the flames in the Middle East, he continues to deflect attention to conceal his economic short-sightedness and claims autonomy from foreign – mainly European – aid, in the name of sovereignty. This posture has now trapped him in his own rhetoric at a time when the Tunisian economy struggles without signs of recovery or resilience in a challenging regional and global landscape. Time is ticking, the situation remains grim, and the country may miss another opportunity to resume economic growth.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Foreign Aid, European Union, Partnerships, and IMF
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Italy, and Tunisia

323. The Humanitarian Response in Post-Earthquake Syria: An Urgent Need for Depoliticisation

Author:: Munqeth Othman Agha
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Less than four days following the deadly earthquake that hit Turkey and Syria on 6 February 2023, Syrians from the less-impacted areas in the northeast sent a convoy of 140 trucks carrying humanitarian aid toward the northwest.[1] Solidarity convoys drove successfully through checkpoints across different zones of control, including those controlled by the Kurdish Autonomous Administration (AA) in northeast Syria, the Syrian regime and the Syrian Interim Government (SIG) in Turkish-influenced areas in northern Syria. While doing so, they overtook other convoys sent by the AA and the UN Damascus that were stuck behind for different political and logistic reasons. Search and rescue activities in northwest Syria were primarily led by local efforts (in particular the Syrian Civil Defense or the White Helmets),[2] with very few international rescue teams joining, especially in the early days. Eyeing this, Syrians furiously, but also sarcastically, wondered how ordinary Syrians already living in harsh living conditions were able to mobilise more aid and deliver it faster than the UN and other INGOs. This event adds another episode to the long history of UN structural failure to deliver aid to disaster-struck zones in the country since the outbreak of the conflict in 2011. As living conditions have never been worse in Syria, and the humanitarian system has never been more paralysed and politicised, there is no more rightful time than now to rethink the whole system of aid delivery.
Topic:: Natural Disasters, Earthquake, Humanitarian Response, and Economic Aid
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

324. China’s Grand Vision and the Persian Gulf

Author:: Anoushiravan Ehteshami
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: China’s engagement with Asian regions beyond its geographical periphery has grown exponentially since the 1990s and this is nowhere more evident than in West Asia and the Persian Gulf subregion. While energy drove China’s early interactions with the Gulf states, within two decades after the Cold War the relationships had evolved into much tighter networks of partnerships. China’s relations with the Gulf states, however, has not been uniform and the case studies of the United Arab Emirates and Iran highlight the complexities of China’s strategy in this subregion and the ways in which it actively pursues its diverse set of interests.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Partnerships, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: China, Iran, Middle East, and Gulf Nations

325. Shifting Paradigms for Israel-Palestine: Why the EU Must Answer the Wake-Up Call Now

Author:: Akram Ezzamouri and Miriam Zenobio
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Three months ago, the most far-right government in the history of Israel was sworn in by the Knesset under the leadership of Benjamin Netanyahu. Notably, Itamar Ben-Gvir, the Kahanist leader of Jewish Power and former convict for racist incitement, has been appointed the head of the newly created Ministry of National Security.[1] Additionally, Bezalel Smotrich, leader of the settler-based Religious Zionism party, has been given major control over the administration of the occupied West Bank as the head of the Finance Ministry.[2] The new government has spurred a nationwide mobilisation in Israel, as many criticise the proposed judicial reform aimed at curtailing the Supreme Court’s power to exercise judicial review of legislation, giving the government control over judicial appointments and granting the Knesset the power to override the Court’s rulings. After weeks of protests – mainly attended by secular liberal Jewish Israelis[3] – the reform has been put on hold as part of a coalition agreement which includes the establishment of a National Guard led by Itamar Ben-Gvir and tasked with handling “Arab unrest”, thus anticipating even more state-sanctioned violence on Palestinians.[4] In fact, the number of Palestinians killed in 2023 is already set to surpass last year’s data, with at least 95 deaths since January.[5] This record in violence has been characterised by near-daily raids carried out by the Israeli military across the occupied West Bank, particularly in Jenin, Nablus and Jericho, aiming at curbing the resurgence of Palestinian armed resistance to the occupation.[6] In the same time span, at least 16 Israelis have been killed.[7]
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Human Rights, European Union, and Occupation
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

326. The Revolutionary Kids Are Alright: Egypt Ten Years after the Coup

Author:: Stephen R. Grand
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: A decade after the military staged a coup to regain control, Egypt’s revolutionary youth, who took to the streets in 2011 to topple long-time dictator Hosni Mubarak, are unmoved. They are perplexed and saddened by the dramatic turns their revolution has taken over the last dozen years, lurching from autocracy to nascent democracy and back again. But they still dare to dream of a better Egypt – one that emerges from its current political, economic and social crises more free and just and prosperous.
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Arab Spring, Youth, Coup, and Revolution
Political Geography:: Middle East, North Africa, and Egypt

327. From Threat to Opportunity: Harnessing Climate Change to Build a Prosperous Future for Iraq and the Region

Author:: Azzam Alwash
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Climate change and environmental degradation are adding serious strain to Iraqi coping capacities and governance mechanisms in a county already struggling with elevated water scarcity, instability and demographic growth. Widely recognised as a country at high-risk from climate change, Iraq faces the urgent need to diversify its economy away from hydrocarbon resources, while developing mechanisms of cooperation and co-dependency with regional neighbours to provide sustenance and opportunities to its youthful population. Drawing on Iraq’s history as a trade hub and bread basket for the region, Iraq and its neighbours need to urgently work together to overcome divisions and plan for a better future if the challenge of climate change is to be transformed into an opportunity capable of promoting stability and integration in an increasingly fragile Middle East.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Water, Sustainable Development Goals, and Energy
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

328. Transitional Justice in Iraq: The Challenges of National Healing and Recovery

Author:: Rend al-Rahim
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Transitional justice in Iraq is a record of squandered opportunities and compromised institutions. Over five decades, Iraqi society has endured human rights abuses on a wide scale, perpetrated by state and non-state actors. The post 2003 era offered a chance to heal wounds and promote national recovery by adopting policies of transparent judicial accountability, equitable reparations, truth-telling and documentation, and national reconciliation to repair the torn social fabric. Instead, in the immediate aftermath of the war of 2003, a victor’s justice prevailed, which deformed the principles of transitional justice and undermined its mechanisms through rampant sectarianism, clientelism and corruption, leading to new abuses, increased strife and deepening social fissures. Twenty years into the new political order, Iraqi policy-makers must reconsider their policies and reform their mechanisms to achieve social cohesion, or risk further social fragmentation and conflict.
Topic:: Human Rights, Transitional Justice, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

329. Systemic Operational Design – a study in failed concept

Author:: Łukasz Przybyło
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: One of the many reasons for the failure of the Israel Defence Forces’ (IDF) in the Second Lebanon War was the concept of Systemic Operational Design (SOD), translated into de facto military doctrine. The story of the rise and fall of the SOD idea is a warning sign for all militaries faced with “modern” and “fashionable” ideas. The purpose of this paper is therefore to describe and evaluate the Systemic Operational Design created and introduced into the IDF by Brigadier General Shimon Naveh and the Operational Theory Research Institute (OTRI). The study is based on the literature created by the State of Israel, the IDF, and its main proponent Shimon Naveh, as well as other militaries (mainly the US Army). This theoretical background is confronted with the IDF’s operations during the Second Lebanon War of 2006 and their effects on the war’s outcome. The over intellectualised, ambiguous, and not properly structured concept of the SOD, introduced as the IDF’s doctrine and approach to operations, led to military failure (which also had more root causes) in Lebanon. A study of the SOD failure should lead to a careful approach being taken to all new military concepts and ideas. Both change and continuation need to be properly balanced and evaluated, while enhanced military effectiveness could be of great value. At the same time, the impact of concepts which are not well anchored in military science/history and untested, like the SOD, could be devastating for militaries.
Topic:: International Security, Israel Defense Forces (IDF), Military, and 2006 Lebanon War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

330. Factsheet: War on Terror

Author:: Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:: The Global War on Terror (GWoT) is an international military campaign launched by the United States under President George W. Bush following the September 11th, 2001 attacks by Al-Qaeda. Dubbed the ‘Forever Wars,’ this conflict is a borderless and timeless campaign that has touched nearly 40 percent of the world, cost the United States an estimated $8 trillion, and has killed more than 900,000 people (although the actual death toll is likely to be much higher). The WoT discourse amplified Islamophobia as it dehumanized Muslims by tying them to terrorism and constructing them as ‘inherently violent’ and a threat. Along with formal military warfare, the WoT has also comprised of large-scale surveillance measures in the U.S, torture, global drone strikes, blacksites, and the Guantanamo Bay military prison.
Topic:: Torture, Drones, Surveillance, Islamophobia, War on Terror, George W. Bush, and Guantanamo Bay
Political Geography:: Middle East, North America, and United States of America

331. Greco-Turkish relations at their lowest ebb

Author:: Alexia Kefalas
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: What really happened on 6th October in Prague? This question has been on the minds of European analysts since the dinner held in the Czech capital on the side-lines of the first summit meeting of the European Political Community. Versions vary between the international press and the 44 heads of state and government.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Greece

332. Components of Industry Resilience to Maintain Sustainable Economic Growth under COVID-19 Within the Knowledge-Based Economy Frame-work: A Comparative Study Between Iran and South Korea

Author:: Marzieh Asaadi
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: COVID-19 was first reported in Wuhan, China, in December 2019 and spread rapidly across the globe. Then on March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the COVID-19 outbreak a pandemic, causing more than 600 million confirmed cases and 6.49 million deaths around the world so far. The effects of the pandemic on societies can be examined mainly by two criteria: 1) the number of lives lost due to the disease (Mortality Rate), and 2) the number of jobs lost due to social distancing rules (fall in GDP). Both have a wide consequence for economic growth and other key macroeconomic indicators. An important explanatory factor for the significant difference between Case Fatality Rate (CFR) for Iran and Korea can be related to the Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) components (Daliri and Asaadi 2021). The WGI is a composite index consisting of six measurement factors, including voice and accountability, political stability, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, the rule of law, and control of corruption. Furthermore, another critical factor is COVID-19 governance which can be monitored by calculating Government Stringency Index. This index is a composite measure based on several indicators which monitor the state of lockdowns and social distancing and range to values between 0-100, while 100 presents the most restrictive. In addition to the governance of COVID-19, from the perspective of public health and lives saved, maintaining jobs and supporting the resilience of industries to achieve SEG has been another important concern for nations and governments worldwide. As stated by Bernanke (2020), it is widely believed that the global economic crisis caused by COVID-19 is different from past crises in terms of cause, scope, and severity that suddenly disrupted economic activity. These necessitate research on the potential determination factors influencing the response of countries, companies, and individuals to the COVID-19 crisis. The key to ensure Business Continuity and SEG is to identify factors that increase the resilience of businesses under COVID-19 circumstances and other potential public health crises. Theoretical and empirical studies confirm that three main explanatory factors are at play: 1) macroeconomic structure and governance, 2) financial resilience of companies which is traced by available capital (i.e., the physical and human capital), and firms' adopted strategies and 3) digital evolution state and momentum and the adaptation of countries to technological innovations and Digital Intelligence, which is an indicator of transmission to KBE. By examining these components, it is possible to evaluate the structure and response of countries to the pandemic and post-COVID era. Thus, the report seeks to contribute to the literature on sustainable economic growth under crisis through a comparative study of Iranian industries with South Korea. The main research question here relates to the components of successful covid-19 governance from the perspective of SEG and business continuity within a KBE environment.
Topic:: Economic Growth, Industry, Resilience, COVID-19, and Knowledge Economy
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Asia, and South Korea

333. Coercing Fluently: The Grammar of Coercion in the Twenty-first Century

Author:: C. Anthony Pfaff
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: To illustrate the logic and grammar of coercion, this analysis relies on decision-theory methods, such as game theory, that examine the strategic decision-making process in interactions with adversaries and partners. The intent here is not to offer predictive models of rational-actor behavior. Rather, the intent is to use game-theory and similar approaches to understand how coercion works better. This analysis considers competitive interactions between actors that have discrete and qualifiable, if not quantifiable, preferences and who behave rationally, though this analysis acknowledges the behavior that is considered rational is frequently informed by nonrational social, cultural, and psychological factors. Considering these competitive interactions allows one to identify “rules of thumb” that can orient and guide actors as they compete. This analysis emphasizes coercion does not depend simply on imposing costs; rather, it depends on placing adversaries in positions in which they must act and their most rational option is the one most beneficial to one’s own cause. To achieve this result, actors must carefully calibrate their demands to ensure their adversary’s cost of concession is as low as possible. To prevent challenges in the first place, actors should convince the adversary acting on a threat is one’s most rational response. If convincing the adversary is not possible, then one must find ways to decrease the value of the adversary’s challenge. When none of those options are possible, preparing for conflict is likely one’s rational option. This analysis then applies the rules of thumb to US relations with China, Russia, and Iran.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Game Theory, Coercion, and International Competition
Political Geography:: China, Iran, Middle East, and Asia

334. The Grand Strategy of Gertrude Bell: From the Arab Bureau to the Creation of Iraq

Author:: Heather S. Gregg
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: The remarkable life of early-twentieth-century British adventurer Gertrude Bell has been well documented through her biographies and numerous travel books. Bell’s role as a grand strategist for the British government in the Middle East during World War I and the postwar period, however, is surprisingly understudied. Investigating Gertrude Bell as both a military strategist and a grand strategist offers important insights into how Great Britain devised its military strategy in the Middle East during World War I—particularly, Britain’s efforts to work through saboteurs and secret societies to undermine the Ottoman Empire during the war and the country’s attempts to stabilize the region after the war through the creation of the modern state of Iraq. As importantly, studying the life and work of Bell offers a glimpse into how this unique woman was able to become one of the principal architects of British strategy at this time and the extraordinary set of skills and perspectives she brought to these efforts—particularly, her ability to make and maintain relationships with key individuals. Bell’s life and work offer insights into the roles women have played and continue to play as influencers of grand strategy.
Topic:: History, Military Strategy, Grand Strategy, World War I, and Gertrude Bell
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Mesopotamia

335. Religious Accommodation through Non-Territorial Autonomy: Assessing the Relevance of Islamic Doctrine and Traditions in Contemporary Times

Author:: Muhammad Mushtaq
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Review of Human Rights
Institution:: Society of Social Science Academics (SSSA)
Abstract:: It appears that the growing religious diversity in the developing and developed worlds will pose a serious challenge in the near future. However, religious minorities are surprisingly understudied in the literature on the politics of accommodation. Similarly, far less emphasis has been placed on non-territorial autonomy, which has the potential to deal with territorially dispersed religious minorities. It is argued that the Ottoman millet system based on Islamic values was the first non-territorial arrangement that successfully accommodated religious differences for centuries. Therefore, this paper reviews the Islamic doctrine and traditions pertaining to religious accommodation in general and the Ottoman millet system, in particular, to examine if the case offers any valuable insights into the scheme of religious autonomy in modern times.
Topic:: Islam, Religion, Minorities, Autonomy, Ottoman Empire, Tradition, Accommodation, and Millet System
Political Geography:: Middle East

336. Poetics of Resistance: A Postcolonial reading of Mahmoud Darwish’s poetry

Author:: Sarah Syed Kazmi
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Review of Human Rights
Institution:: Society of Social Science Academics (SSSA)
Abstract:: Focusing on Mahmoud Darwish’s poetry, this article aims to present his resistance poetry as aesthetic embodiment of oral dissemination rather than purely an art form. We can deduce three roles of Darwish’s take on resistance against the backdrop of Palestinian struggle; first is the attempt to subvert patriarchal/colonial ascendency by subjecting traditional affirmations to critical, postcolonial inquiry; second is the attempt to raise the self-esteem of the people by conferring upon them a ‘national sublime’ that emerges from their relentless struggle and sacrifice, and; third the presentation of poetic diction that evolves into a self-reflexive domain galvanizing the people into waging the struggle for their rights.
Topic:: Post Colonialism, Resistance, Poetry, Mahmoud Darwish, and Self-Reflexiveness
Political Geography:: Middle East and Palestine

337. The Lessons of the Afghan War That No One Will Want to Learn

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: At the best of times, the U.S. tends to rush out heavily politicized studies of the lessons of war that are more political ammunition than serious analyses, and while these are followed by long formal studies that are often quite good, they then are often ignored as the flow of events moves on. These are scarcely the best of times. The collapse of the Afghan government and forces has occurred during one of the most partisan periods in American politics, followed by a totally different kind of conflict in Ukraine, all while the U.S. focus on terrorism and regional conflicts that began with 9/11 has been replaced by a focus on competition with nuclear superpowers like Russia and China. The very fact that the war stretched out over two decades has meant that much of the focus on lessons has ignored the first half or more of the war, and the almost inevitable chaos following the U.S. decision to withdraw has led to the focus on the collapse of the Afghan forces and the central government rather than on the actual conduct of the war – and few within the U.S. government now want to rake over the list of past mistakes that turned an initial tactical victory into a massive grand strategic defeat.
Topic:: Security, Military Strategy, Military Affairs, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

338. Looking beyond the Biden Visit to the Middle East and the “Fist Bump”

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: If one looks back on media coverage of Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia – and far too many of the analyses of the visit that have followed – it is amazing to see how much of that coverage focused on the assassination of Jamal Khashoggi, the President’s “fist bump,” and on short term issues and trends. The key strategic challenges the U.S. faces in the Middle East are longer term and they go far beyond most of the reporting and discussion of the Biden visit.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, and Leadership
Political Geography:: Middle East, North America, and United States of America

339. Setting the Right Conditions for Aid to Afghanistan—and Other Nations as Well

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: A year of Taliban rule over Afghanistan has shown all too clearly that there are good reasons to debate the future level of aid to Afghanistan. The Emeritus Chair in Strategy at CSIS has prepared a detailed analysis of these issues, drawing on key sources like the UN, OHC, World Bank, CIA, and SIGAR.
Topic:: Human Rights, Humanitarian Aid, International Cooperation, and Equality
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Middle East

340. Demographic Change in the Arab/Persian Gulf: A Case Study by Country Image

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman and Paul Cormarie
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: It is hard for anyone who has not traveled extensively in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) over a period of decades to realize just how much each nation in the region has changed in terms of basic demographics. There has been a massive increase in population in every MENA country since the end of World War II and the colonial period, and the nations in the Arab/Persian Gulf are no exception. The Emeritus Chair in Strategy has prepared a three-part analysis of the MENA’s demographics and detailed how population pressure has impacted the region’s stability. This first part is entitled Demographic Change in the Arab/Persian Gulf: A Case Study by Country. A downloadable copy is attached at the end of this transmittal, and it is available on the CSIS website at https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/220829_Cordesman_Arab_Demographics.pdf?vbd_oUraxn6ZI7VyBKiThkc1Z6lZ8Ogx There are no precise figures for population growth that are fully reliable, but the broad trends are still clear. Many MENA countries have never had a credible census, and even reliable broad estimates of population trends only became available for many countries in the late 1950s and early 1960s. Work by the UN and World Bank is now reliable enough, however, to show that all MENA countries experienced massive increases in population through 2021 and that the resulting pressures on their economies, governance, and social stability have been—and will be—a key factor affecting their stability.
Topic:: Demographics, Population, Regionalism, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:: Middle East and Persian Gulf

341. REVISITING THE EMBOLDENING POWER OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS

Author:: Kyungwon Suh
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:: Do nuclear weapons make their possessors more aggressive? A series of high-profile aggressive actions by some nuclear-armed states appear to substantiate the argument that nuclear weapons enable aggressive behavior. Since its all-out invasion of Ukraine in February, Russia has continued to conduct brutal, coercive operations, including missile strikes against Ukrainian civilian infrastructure and population centers. North Korea has continued to test launch a wide array of missiles, one of which recently landed close to South Korea’s territorial waters. Policymakers also echo the view that nuclear weapons are more than simply defensive weapons. The 2022 Nuclear Posture Review argues that Russian leaders have exploited their nuclear arsenal as a “shield” behind which they launched military aggression against Ukraine. When he was CIA Director, Formal Secretary of State Mike Pompeo argued that Pyongyang could use nuclear weapons “beyond self-preservation.”
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons, Weapons, Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), Russia-Ukraine War, and Mike Pompeo
Political Geography:: Russia, Iran, Ukraine, Middle East, South Korea, North Korea, and United States of America

342. Consistent Partiality: US Foreign Policy on Palestine-Israel

Author:: Sarah Whitson and Peter Beinart
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:: Although the Biden administration talks about supporting democracy and human rights, it has maintained unconditional US support for Israel even as human rights organizations label it an apartheid state. What are the political and ideological foundations of America’s hostility to Palestinian freedom? And what would it take to change them? Does the US’s unconditional support for Israel serve America’s national interests? Join the Center for Security, Race and Rights as we address these questions with two internationally known experts.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Apartheid, Human Rights, Politics, Democracy, Ideology, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North America, and United States of America

343. The War Economy of the Fragmented Healthcare System in Syria

Author:: Omar Dewachi, Duncan McLean, and Aula Abbara
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:: This devastating conflict that has had a profound impact in Syria, the region and beyond, caused immense suffering. At least 400,000 Syrians have lost their lives. More than 6 million refugees, out of a pre-war population of 22 million, have fled the country and 6.7 million are internally displaced. Over 13 million people continue to need assistance, and yet Syria seems to have dropped off the radar. In this panel discussion, hosted by the Centre for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR) at Rutgers University, experts with in-depth knowledge of Syria and the region will examine some of the challenges humanitarian organisations faced as consequence of the war in Syria. Panellists will examine the relationship between health-care provision on the one hand, and the state’s claim to sovereignty and legitimacy on the other, and how the humanitarian response became quickly entangled into the polarized sides of the Syria war. They will look at how the protracted conflict in Syria has fragmented the country’s health system. They will also describe how, in the absence of a meaningful foreign policy, aid delivery came to fuel Syria’s war economy raising troubling questions as to the limits humanitarian organizations are prepared to accept when operating in a broader system of corruption, predation and denial of access. Guest speakers all contributed separate chapters to the book on Syria edited by MSF “Everybody’s war: politics of aid in the Syria crisis”
Topic:: Sovereignty, Economy, Syrian War, Humanitarian Organizations, and Healthcare System
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

344. Geopolitical Struggle between Russia and Turkey: The Intersection of Ukraine and Syrian Crises

Author:: Rahman Dag
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: As a new but uncertain international system has been operating for decades that can be regarded as a transition from unipolarity to something resembling multipolarity. Therefore, established and possible future great powers have been determining their foreign policies according to their future projections of the regional conflicts. This paper investigates Turkey and Russia’s stances in the Syrian and Ukrainian Crises. It might sound odd that Russia and Turkey are comparable in a struggle for the sphere of influence that intercepts each other. However, their good bilateral relations and different, even conflictual, approaches to regional and international issues provide a suitable ground to claim that a new international system is about to emerge. It will continue until the positions of established and newly emerged great powers are embedded. In practice, Russia's stance in the Ukrainian crisis and Turkey's stance in the Syrian crisis represent ontological threads to the vision of their own countries. However, they can still work together at a certain level because of third-party involvement in the issues
Topic:: Hegemony, Crisis Management, Humanitarian Crisis, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Turkey, Ukraine, Middle East, and Syria

345. What Strategic Posture Should France Adopt in the Middle East?

Author:: Héloïse Fayet
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: France has a historical presence in the Middle East, where it has many interests to defend: the fight against terrorism, the promotion of the arms industry, the dissemination of humanitarian values, etc. To this end, it has a number of resources at its disposal, notably military: French forces are deployed in Iraq, Syria and Jordan as part of Operation Chammal, in Lebanon for the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), and in the United Arab Emirates. This strategic posture, inherited from the history and "Arab policy" of the 20th century, is now being called into question by the geopolitical upheavals in the region. The resizing of the American presence in the Middle East, initiated by the withdrawal from Afghanistan, is accompanied by a growing assumption of responsibility for their own security by local actors. This evolution is embodied, for example, in the signing of the Abraham Accords, which redefine the place of Israel. The American pulling out also allows extra-regional powers such as China and Russia to become progressively involved in the area. These transformations require an adaptation of the French posture in order to position itself as a credible actor in the strategic competition. It is therefore necessary to move away from the sole focus on counterterrorism, which no longer gathers partners, and more broadly to redefine the partnership strategy and the mechanism deployed on the ground. A strengthened interministerial, or even European, dynamic also seems essential in order to mobilize all the levers available to France.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Armed Forces, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, France, and Syria

346. The Geopolitics of Seawater Desalination

Author:: Marc-Antoine Eyl-Mazzega and Élise Cassignol
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: Water desalination is gradually emerging as the leading solution to cope with increasing water stress: i.e., the imbalance between water demand and quantities available. The United Nations estimates that by 2025, two-thirds of the world’s population will be affected by such challenges. The causes of water scarcity are multiple, including climate change, intensive agriculture, and population growth. This requires states to rethink their water policies, which are central to preserving their stability, resilience and sovereignty. A real “boom” in desalination industries is at work. The majority of Gulf countries now largely depend on desalinated water for their inhabitants’ consumption: in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), 42% of drinking water comes from desalination plants producing more than 7 million cubic meters (m3) per day, in Kuwait it is 90%, in Oman 86%, and in Saudi Arabia 70%. In 2022, there were more than 21,000 seawater desalination plants in operation worldwide, almost twice as many as a decade ago, and the sector’s capacity is growing at between +6% and +12% per year. By 2030, desalination capacity in Middle Eastern countries is expected to almost double, as part of plans announced in the region to prepare these economies for their transition to “post-oil” and to foster resilience. Saudi Arabia’s desalination capacity is set to increase from 5.6 million cubic meter (m3) per day in 2022 to 8.5 million m3 per day in 2025, and it will have to cover more than 90% of the country’s water consumption. The same holds for the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain and Israel, where the production of desalinated water will more than double by 2030. With the rise of available solutions to meet all such needs, these technologies are now in demand on virtually every continent, while the Middle East today represents only 50% of installed capacity worldwide. In Africa, large-scale projects have recently been announced in Algeria and Morocco, countries that until now have had sufficient resources. Other countries such as Ghana, Senegal and Kenya supply many cities with desalinated seawater. This is also the case for Cairo. In the Indo-pacific region, particularly in China and India, the needs for desalinated water are increasing, driven by growing industries and decreasing available water. In 2020 alone, the construction of more than 35 desalination plants was announced in China, as well as six in the Philippines, and six in Taiwan. In the Americas, the west coast of the United States stands out with important projects in California, and Texas is not far behind. In Latin America, new projects are emerging in Peru and Chile, driven mainly by the needs of the mining industry, while in Mexico the demand for desalinated water notably comes from the population. Finally, island areas stand out for their strong needs for desalinated water: Cebu in the Philippines, Cape Verde, the Canary Islands and the Maldives are increasingly using desalination capabilities. European firms still lead, but Asian or local players are taking off There are many industrial players of varied size, although some have emerged for more than ten years as undisputed market leaders: in France, they include Engie and Veolia, whose merger with Suez opened up new prospects in the Americas, the Middle East and Europe; but there is also IDE Technologies, the Israeli champion of desalination; Korea’s Doosan Heavy, China’s Abengoa, and Spain’s Acciona. More recently, companies in emerging countries have distinguished themselves by obtaining large-scale contracts. This is particularly the case of Gulf players like the Emirati company Metito and the Saudi firm Advanced Water Technologies. Egypt also has industrial actors. Overall, the technology of reverse osmosis is largely mastered, while production differentiation concerns capacity, operational costs, electricity consumption and plant life.
Topic:: Agriculture, Climate Change, Water, Industry, and Desalination
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, and Gulf Nations

347. The Pitfalls of Saudi Arabia’s Security-Centric Strategy in Yemen

Author:: Ahmed Nagi
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Saudi Arabia’s security-oriented approach to Yemen has foundered. The Saudi-led coalition has failed to defeat the Houthis militarily or to restore the government the group toppled. Moreover, Saudi militarization of the border with Yemen has damaged the Yemeni economy—with negative consequences for Saudi Arabia. Crucially, Saudi Arabia’s security is contingent on Yemen’s stability and economic prosperity. As such, Riyadh should contribute to reviving Yemen’s moribund economy, both in the borderlands and in the inland agricultural sector.
Topic:: Security, Agriculture, Economy, Conflict, and Instability
Political Geography:: Middle East, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia

348. Innovation and New Directions: Searching for Novel Paths in Arab Education Reform

Author:: Wafa Al-Khadra, Shaikha Jabor Al-Thani, Nathan J. Brown, Heba El-Deghaidy, Rima Karami-Akkary, Marwan Muasher, and Christina Zacharia
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: In October 2018, Carnegie published a report calling for fundamental educational reform in the Arab world and arguing for the need for that reform to move “from schooling to learning” in order to “serve the needs of pluralistic societies and foster the development of active, responsible citizens who are empowered to deal with complexity and advance constructive change.”1 The report gave a number of recommendations encompassing the different fields within which education takes place: the school, the state, and the society at large. This paper, with many of the authors of the first report participating again, attempts to go in further depth about the findings of the first report. It is evident that Arab governments still see education reform as a top-down effort that continues to perpetuate power relations and authoritarian thinking, sidelining critical and creative thinking among students. The paper places special emphasis on several reform efforts that are being implemented across the Arab region, many in a bottom-up approach that attempts a collaborative approach with governments but is not held hostage to old authoritarian thinking. Rather than simply admiring the problem, the paper attempts to highlight several experiences taking place within different Arab educational systems, not so much because these experiences are necessarily transportable but rather to point out that together with the challenges, there are also successes that can be built on. Consistent with Carnegie’s strategy of working with experts from the region, the paper has once again drawn on the practical experiences of experts from the Qatari, Jordanian, and Egyptian educational systems as well as from the regional, bottom-up experience of the TAMAM project, led by the Arab Thought Foundation and the American University of Beirut and spanning eight different countries. Under the able coordination and facilitation of Nathan J. Brown, these experts have authored a document that I hope will further contribute to the debate on education reform in the region—and help push it forward. I want to acknowledge the Asfari Foundation for their generous financing of this project, and hope that policy recommendations in this paper will help guide future education policies in the Arab world.
Topic:: Education, Reform, and Innovation
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arab Countries

349. China Is Playing by Turkey’s Media Rules

Author:: Çağdaş Üngör
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Chinese players have localized their strategies to improve China’s image in Turkey in recent years. Although China and Turkey have long maintained friendly relations at the official level, Turkish people remained notably skeptical of China throughout the 2000s. Indeed, Turkey’s unfavorable public opinion has been a constant headache for China, whose propaganda outlets in the country produce little Turkish language content that actually resonates with domestic audiences. Turkey also has few explicitly pro-China voices and no sizable overseas Chinese community, which has made positive public relations into an uphill battle for Beijing. But having acknowledged these weaknesses in recent years, the Chinese regime has opted for strategies that aim at building a new synergy with local actors in the Turkish mediasphere. Beijing has adapted to the local rules of Turkish media and sought new opportunities to elevate China’s image in Turkey by leveraging its friendly ties with Ankara. The Turkish government, which exerts substantial influence over domestic media, has provided new platforms for China to realize its soft power goals within a largely polarized setting with little press freedom. In this context, Turkey’s progovernment newspapers have published “advertorials” celebrating the achievements of the Chinese Communist Party. Similarly, journalists from Turkey’s state-owned Anadolu Agency have participated in Chinese-sponsored press tours to Xinjiang, where Beijing has sought to undercut the Turkish narrative around abuses against the Uyghurs. On the other end of Turkey’s polarized ideological spectrum, China has also appealed to left-wing opposition groups through its narratives, which emphasize the country’s anti-imperialist credentials. Such messaging strategies may already have produced some results in Turkey, as the most recent opinion polls reflect a gradual increase in the number of Turkish citizens who perceive China as a potential partner.
Topic:: Media, Domestic Politics, and Soft Power
Political Geography:: China, Turkey, Middle East, and Asia

350. Political Change and Turkey’s Foreign Policy

Author:: Alper Coşkun and Sinan Ülgen
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Turkey is heading toward a set of twin elections that could have momentous consequences for the country’s future. In June 2023 at the latest, Turkish voters will be asked to choose a new president and a new parliamentary majority. For the past two decades, the Turkish political landscape has been dominated by the Justice and Development (AK) Party and its uniquely successful leader, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. After having ruled the country single-handedly since 2002, Erdoğan became the first executive president of Turkey in 2018, following a tightly contested constitutional change. He has come out victorious in every round of elections since the start of his political career. And yet, after two decades, his popularity is faltering, raising the prospect of political change. The turning point for Turkey’s political system has been the transition to a presidential system with the constitutional amendment of 2017.1 Since the start of multiparty elections in 1946, Turkey had had a parliamentary system, and since 2002 it has had single-party governments. With Erdoğan at the helm, the AK Party has won nearly all elections over the past two decades. It only failed to win a parliamentary majority in the most recent elections,2 in June 2018, and since then has been forced to rely on the support of the hyper-nationalist Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) to secure control of the legislature.3 Alper Coşkun Alper Coşkun is a senior fellow in the Europe Program and leads the Türkiye and the World Project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, DC. @IACOSKUN The transition to the presidential system forced a realignment of the political constellation. The structural impact of this transition has led to the creation of two major political alliances. The Cumhur, or People’s, Alliance is led by the AK Party and includes the MHP and a small number of marginal parties. The Millet, or Nation, Alliance is led by the main opposition, the center-left Republican People’s Party (CHP); it also includes the center-right/nationalist İYİ Party as well as the Saadet and Demokrat parties, which appeal to a smaller electoral base. The first real test of this alliance-based politics was the municipal elections of March 2019, where the opposition alliance performed markedly better. Millet-backed opposition candidates won the electoral race in nine out of Turkey’s ten major metropolitan cities, including Ankara and Istanbul. These cities had been ruled by mayors linked to the AK Party and its predecessors since 1994. Now the alliances are gearing up to contest the critical 2023 elections. The ruling Cumhur Alliance’s candidate will be Erdoğan, who will try to win a third term as Turkey’s president. The candidate of the Millet Alliance is still unknown. Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, as the leader of the main opposition party, is intent on becoming the Millet candidate, but there are doubts about his electability against Erdoğan. Meral Akşener, the chairwoman of İYİ—the second-largest opposition party—has so far sidelined herself from the presidential race. Ekrem Imamoğlu, the mayor of Istanbul, and Mansur Yavaş, the mayor of Ankara, are also possible presidential candidates for the opposition. At present, all four potential candidates for the opposition are polling better than Erdoğan—fueling speculation about political change.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, Public Opinion, Elections, and Political Parties
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

351. Geopolitics of Europe’s Hydrogen Aspirations: Creating Sustainable Equilibrium or a Combustible Mix?

Author:: Tomas Jermalavicius, Tomas Janeliūnas, Andrian Prokip, Iliya Kusa, Alan Riley, Andrei V. Belyi, Pier Paolo Raimondi, and Miguel Sainz de Vicuña
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: Discussions about hydrogen’s role in the transition to carbon-neutral economies and the EU’s Green Deal seldom include consideration of geopolitical aspects and/or national security imperatives. However, given the importance of energy as a factor in global and regional geopolitical trends and national security, hydrogen development will reshape not only energy relations between countries but will also alter the broader geopolitical picture. While elevating new aspects of geopolitical interplays, such as the importance of technology and regional clusters, hydrogen development might also unwittingly transplant present-day challenges—such as excessive dependence on the energy supply from hostile powers—into the carbon-neutral future. Since Europe’s energy sovereignty and geopolitical role in its neighbourhood could be at stake, the nexus of geopolitics, energy security and hydrogen development should be given serious attention. At the same time, the transformative socioeconomic impact of energy transition will create winners and losers within and between nations, which in some cases will have national security implications; hydrogen development could offer ways to mitigate this. This report focuses on exploring the impact that the European Union’s ambitions and plans for hydrogen development—including an expansion of its infrastructure in the form of the European Hydrogen Backbone—on its geopolitical position up to 2040. It first looks into the greater detail of the EU Hydrogen Strategy and how it links with the Energy Union, as well as with European strategic autonomy and energy sovereignty issues. It finds that hydrogen development—alongside the growth of the renewable energy sector—offers a great opportunity to reduce the current exposure to hostile actors through the energy sector that often hampers Europe’s ability to act as a geopolitical force in its neighbourhood. However, it also warns that the lack of unity and coherence currently afflicting the Energy Union, and manifest in such recent controversies as the Nord Stream 2 undersea gas pipeline from Russia to Germany before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, could potentially weaken such a positive geopolitical impact of hydrogen. Although hydrogen development requires Europe to draw upon external suppliers, the fact that this supply can come from many countries provides a significant opportunity for diversification and reducing the potency of energy supply as a geopolitical weapon. In this regard, two directions stand out in the EU’s neighbourhood—Ukraine in the east, and the Mediterranean along with the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) to the south. Both have huge potential for playing major roles in the European hydrogen supply chains, and their cultivation by the EU would provide many opportunities both to strengthen the EU’s influence in its neighbourhood and to build new partnerships. Certainly, neither of those directions comes without risks and downsides: political instability and armed conflicts, poor governance, unstable investment environment, water scarcity, and in some cases dependence on the hydrocarbons industry for income will be significant factors hampering the efforts to unlock their potential. Ukraine in particular will require sustained reconstruction efforts to tackle the massive devastation caused by Russia’s war. This will divert resources and attention, but transforming its energy sector and developing its hydrogen production base could still be important strands of these efforts. Europe’s own potential for domestic hydrogen production is another direction that this report looks into as a way to disentangle from the present-day geopolitically toxic dependencies and enhance its energy sovereignty. The Baltic states and Finland represent an interesting case study on how hydrogen could underpin a regional cooperation cluster with a high degree of integration—one of the new characteristics of the hydrogen era that will have geopolitical implications. The report, however, finds that different national perspectives on hydrogen, lack of coordination, and certain issues of trust arising from recent failures of solidarity and unity when tackling the regional nexus of energy security and geopolitics might hamper future regional cooperation in hydrogen. The hydrogen economy also offers some important benefits in managing national security challenges at the national level. In Estonia, the loss of the fossil fuel-based industry in the highly sensitive north-eastern region of Ida-Virumaa will be a socioeconomic blow to the local population. This report highlights how the vulnerability of the region, dominated by the Russian-speaking ethnic minorities who are already highly exposed to Russia’s malignant influence activities, could imperil Estonia’s energy transition and its national security. Creating a national hydrogen cluster in this region, drawing upon its industrial infrastructure and human capital, could mitigate the consequences of decarbonisation and energy transition. However, these considerations do not seem to receive sufficient attention from the government and energy businesses when drawing Estonia’s hydrogen map of the future. The report recommends that various stakeholders in the EU—including those behind the European Hydrogen Backbone—continuously monitor and assess the geopolitical risks, especially in terms of their impact on European energy sovereignty, when creating and managing new hydrogen-related interdependencies with the regions and countries outside the EU. The report urges the EU to support energy transition and necessary market and governance reforms in post-war Ukraine and the MENA countries to facilitate their emergence as crucial and reliable partners in hydrogen value chains. The report also recommends closer coordination and common planning between hydrogen stakeholders of the Baltic states and Finland when forming a regional cluster of hydrogen supply that would contribute to European energy sovereignty. Last but not least, it suggests that, for national security and resilience reasons, Estonia should focus more attention on the Ida-Virumaa region when developing its national hydrogen roadmap.
Topic:: Security, European Union, Geopolitics, Hydrogen, and Energy
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, Middle East, North Africa, and Baltic States

352. Turkey's Response to the Russia-Ukraine Crisis

Author:: Aaron Stein
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: On October 26, 2021, Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense released video of a TB2 unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV) striking a separatist D-30 howitzer in Russian-occupied Donbas. The strike was Ukraine’s first confirmed use of the now ubiquitous TB2, the Bayraktar-manufactured drone that the Turkish military has used to great tactical effect in Syria, Libya, and Nagorno-Karabakh. The Turkish-Ukrainian defense relationship is understudied, but it could become an important factor in how Russian elites view North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) support for non-member Ukraine, and be used to justify an invasion to assuage Moscow’s concerns about a US-allied military presence along its borders. The Turkish support for Ukraine is not the main driver of Russian discomfort about the future of Ukraine. The TB2 is also not a decisive game changer, and the use of UCAVs is almost certain to have little impact on how Russian leadership weighs risk during debates about the efficacy of armed conflict in a neighboring state. Nevertheless, Turkish-Ukrainian defense ties are worthy of deeper study, precisely because Ankara’s relationships with Kyiv and Moscow have a secondary impact on American interests in Eastern Europe. The Turkish-Russian relationship is marred by bureaucratic distrust, which is papered over by a very functional leader-to-leader dynamic that enables the two Black Sea neighbors to cooperate and manage numerous regional conflicts. The Turkish-Ukrainian dynamic, in turn, is part of a broader Turkish effort to establish itself as an independent actor, committed to pursuing a foreign policy that often clashes with much of the NATO alliance. This paper will explore Turkish-Russian and Turkish-Ukrainian relations; the reasons for Turkey’s efforts to “fence sit” and establish itself as a neutral political actor in the Black Sea; and what these efforts portend for US interests in the region.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Turkey, Ukraine, and Middle East

353. Apply the Logic of the Afghanistan Withdrawal to Syria

Author:: Natalia Armbruster
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Defense Priorities
Abstract:: The logic President Biden used for removing U.S. troops from Afghanistan applies to Syria. Since a U.S. intervention should be defined by clear, achievable goals, and since long-range strikes, instead of occupying forces, can accomplish U.S. counterterrorism goals, there is no good case for keeping U.S. troops in Syria either. Around 900 U.S. forces currently occupy territory in eastern and southern Syria, risking conflict with Syrian forces and local militias, as well as Russian, Iranian, and Turkish forces. ISIS’s territorial caliphate in Syria was eliminated in 2019. The few, small, remote areas the remnants of ISIS now hold are largely within territory held by Syrian government forces. Local forces can fight the remnants of ISIS. None of the other standard rationales for keeping U.S. forces in Syria—protecting the Kurds, countering Iran and Russia, unseating the Assad regime—justifies keeping troops in Syria either.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Islamic State, Military Intervention, Syrian War, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Middle East, Syria, and United States of America

354. Bases, Logistics, and the Problem of Temptation in the Middle East

Author:: Benjamin Denison
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Defense Priorities
Abstract:: The wisdom of making wars easier depends on the wisdom of the wars. Rapid military response to all global trouble may sound good, but it can tempt policymakers to intervene even for non-vital interests. U.S. military bases and logistics hubs in and near the Middle East are the primary examples—they make foolish wars too easy to start. Maintaining the ability to use rapid military force in the region has become an end unto itself, unmoored from any clear vital strategic interest. Closing bases will make wars more challenging to start, which will help spur public debate about potential interventions due to the transparent upfront costs required. This will give diplomacy an opportunity to return as the primary policy option in the region. This recommendation is consistent with the U.S. Constitution’s logic. Democracy’s benefit for foreign policymaking is its ability to consider many options and give more time to think through various proposals.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Military Affairs, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Middle East and United States of America

355. The EU Green Deal. A new momentum for democratic governance in the MENA region?

Author:: Dina Fakoussa
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: Dysfunctional governance and repression lie at the heart of social, economic and political challenges and crises in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The nature of governance, whether autocratic, corrupt, crony capitalist, highly centralised, patriarchal and/or merely incompetent, led to alarming socioeconomic and political grievances. These grievances accumulated over decades sparking region- wide protests in 2010, 2011 and subsequent years. Without major improvements in the quality of democratic governance,1 further crises are inevitable, and sustainable stability will remain unattainable, with major negative repercussions for the European Union (EU) itself. Naturally, climate change is augmenting these challenges and increasing the pressure on government performance. The EU Green Deal addresses this uniquely urgent matter in need of assertiveness, namely climate change with its worldwide palpable repercussions and impact for all. The deal has serious implications for economies and hence societies in MENA countries. At the same time, it could and must serve as a vehicle for improved democratic governance in the region. This is also in the interests of the EU’s green ambitions, as lasting environmentally sound and socially just policies in countries beyond the EU will hardly materialise without improvements in the area of democratic governance. The two subject areas are mutually dependent; hence, the durable success of climate policies is unlikely without being buttressed by democratic components. This understanding needs to be mirrored in all EU policies and programmes targeting the region by interweaving climate policies with democratic governance.
Topic:: Climate Change, Governance, European Union, Democracy, Repression, and Green Transition
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Middle East, North Africa, and MENA

356. Youth unemployment in the South of the Mediterranean: A chronic challenge to development and stability

Author:: Hussein Suleiman
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: Unemployment among youth, aged 15 to 24 years old according to the International Labour Organization (ILO)’s definition, is the highest in the south of the Mediterranean, and in the larger Middle East and North Africa (MENA), compared to other regions in the world. This problem is exacerbated by very low labour force participation rates for this age group in the region, also compared to other regions. Furthermore, this issue of high youth unemployment is not a recent development but has been chronic in the region for at least the last three decades, as shown in detail further on. Youth unemployment south of the Mediterranean is a major challenge, and a symptom of deeply-rooted problems in the region’s labour markets. Unemployment is largely a youth unemployment issue. The problem is mainly one of new entrants’ transition from school age to work (Assaad & Krafft, 2016) but with consequences that could easily shape the entire life trajectories of individuals in the region and also have widespread impacts on their societies and even neighbouring countries. Such worrying and chronic challenges in the region’s labour markets have been largely shaped by structural deeply-rooted issues, reflected in the rise of work informality as a result of falling public employment, and a slow growth of formal private employment in the region throughout the last few decades, which will be discussed in detail in the paper. This paper aims to provide policy recommendations to address such chronic problems in the region, focusing mainly on Southern Mediterranean countries in North Africa, Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria and Morocco, excluding Libya because of the exceptional impact of the civil war on its labour market during the last decade. The paper first explores some prominent implications of low employment among the youth, for their own lives and their societies. It then proceeds to examine the magnitude of the problem in the selected countries and its development across the last three decades, relying mostly on ILO estimates, which, unlike national estimates, have a few missing entries in that extended period, and also allow for disaggregation by age groups and gender that might not always be available for national estimates. Next, the paper highlights the now-established explanation of the youth employment problem in the region and how it developed, before finally moving to the recommended policy measures, both domestic and through regional cooperation, to address this chronic problem that has played a major role in the radical political and social shocks in the region in the last decade.
Topic:: Labor Issues, Employment, Youth, and Unemployment
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Middle East, and Mediterranean

357. Liberty’s Doom? Artificial Intelligence in Middle Eastern Security

Author:: Kristina Kausch
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: The surge of artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled technologies has triggered global debates on the potential risks and opportunities of the use of these technologies to enhance societies’ prosperity, security and well-being while ensuring human control and safeguarding fundamental rights. In the area of security, AI has the potential of making key sectors, such as predictive policing, counter-terrorism or border management more efficient, just and humane. At the same time, the risks inherent to AI in the security sector have raised numerous concerns regarding surveillance and data protection, human rights and civil liberties, or the prospect of an arms race in autonomous weapons systems, which have overshadowed debates on opportunities. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region presents particular challenges in this equation. On the one hand, the region’s myriad security challenges could greatly benefit from a booster in security-related problem-solving efficiency. On the other, ethical and legal considerations gain particular weight in a region largely governed by authoritarian rulers and with a weak rule of law, as these conditions prevent thorough AI governance and the necessary checks and balances to avoid authoritarian abuse of the ample opportunities presented by AI. This collection attempts to approach the questions and dilemmas raised by AI in Middle Eastern security through a European policy lens. Zooming in on AI in border management, surveillance, defence and regulation, exploring both risks and opportunities of this set of technologies for the fragile security of the MENA region, each chapter draws conclusions for future European Union (EU) policy and cooperation with MENA partners on AI.
Topic:: Security, Science and Technology, Innovation, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:: Middle East

358. Social Protection Reforms in the MENA Region: Possibilities and Challenges

Author:: Abdalhadi Alijla
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: The COVID-19 crisis that hit the world in 2020 revealed a huge gap in access to public services, equality and government responsiveness to the consequences of the pandemic. In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, the COVID-19 crisis showed the inadequacy of the public institutions and their abilities to protect the poor, and ensure that populations’ needs are met, especially informal workers, women, children and the elderly. The social protection systems in the MENA countries are relatively weak, facing challenges or disfunctions through many ad-hoc programmes, making it difficult to respond to the COVID-19 crisis. This is particularly observed in countries facing a pre- COVID-19 economic crisis, such as Lebanon. There is clear evidence that social protection systems have a positive impact on the lives of the population in times of crisis. They improve access to health and education, and increase economic security. Social protection systems work during times of crisis and times of stability, but they are strategic tools that show that states have the capacity to design and deploy policy tools to protect people. In divided societies, inequalities are usually wider and, therefore, a comprehensive social protection system with a high rate of coverage is needed. In this Policy Study, we present four chapters, examining the state-of-the-art of social protection systems in the MENA region, challenges, and potential opportunities that government, local non-governmental organizations (NGOs), international non-governmental organizations (INGOs) and the European Union (EU) could take to assist in establishing comprehensive social protection systems. The COVID-19 crisis is an opportunity to learn and identify where the gaps are and what needs to be done by formal and informal institutions in the MENA region to reform and re-engineer their social protection systems with help from the EU and its institutions. COVID-19 arrived in the MENA region during an economic crisis in Lebanon, Jordan and Tunisia, marked by huge inequalities, vulnerabilities with increasing poverty and low trust in governments and their performance. Lockdown, closure and physical distancing have also led to loss of jobs and income for millions of people, mainly informal workers, and businesses. The vulnerable groups who are already living in economic distress, such as informal workers, youth, women and the elderly, are the most affected parts of the population. They are the most vulnerable to loss of income and unemployment. This study highlights that MENA states lack comprehensive and effective social protection systems. In many MENA countries, ad-hoc programmes substitute a comprehensive social protection system. The study examines the rural-urban and socioeconomic group gaps in accessing services, such as health and education, and economic opportunities. It shows that the historic gap between urban-rural and socioeconomic groups' ability to access the same services and opportunities compared to other groups affected the ability of those groups to cope with the pandemic, exposing them to more vulnerability. The study examines the policy response of the MENA governments to the pandemic, namely in Lebanon, Jordan, Tunisia and Morocco – four countries that have been particularly challenged by COVID-19. It identifies several gaps and op- portunities to develop the social protection system. The study examines cash- based programmes, access to public health, informal workers, women’s protection, digitalisation of social protection systems, and education, to some extent. It focuses on youth, women, the elderly, disabled persons and children as the most vulnerable groups in the region. It identifies that coordination between formal in- stitutions and INGOs needs to be formalised, informal workers need to be included in the social protection system, women and the elderly should be prioritised, and informal social protection mechanisms could be supported through livelihood activities, but is not seen as a major part of any social protection mechanism. It finally highlights the need for digitalisation of reformed social protection systems or strategies.
Topic:: Governance, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, North Africa, and MENA

359. Seven Myths about the Iran Nuclear Deal

Author:: Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: In 2015, President Barack Obama worked with three European powers, the European Union, Iran, China, and Russia to conclude the Iran nuclear deal, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). In 2018, President Donald Trump formally withdrew the United States from the deal. Instituting his policy of “maximum pressure,” Trump imposed crippling economic sanctions that punished Iran not just for its ongoing nuclear weapons program but also for, among other things, its regional aggression and support for terrorism worldwide. Earlier in 2018, Israeli agents conducted a dramatic operation in Tehran, breaking into a secret warehouse and capturing a trove of Iranian nuclear files. These documents revealed a more advanced and comprehensive nuclear weapons program than had been previously known. The nuclear archive also showed Iranian officials’ plan for concealing nuclear weapons efforts under the guise of civilian research and development, and how Iranian officials systematically deceived the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). As a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), Iran is required to cooperate with IAEA inspectors to verify the peaceful nature of its program. After the Israelis shared the nuclear archive with the IAEA, its inspectors found traces of uranium at several undeclared sites. Despite being obligated to do so, Tehran has refused to explain the presence of the uranium or reveal its current location. Iran’s requirements under the NPT are wholly separate from the JCPOA, but Tehran is using the Biden administration’s profound desire to return to the nuclear deal to bring political pressure on the IAEA to close the book on Iran’s violations. A fair-minded observer of Iran’s relations with the IAEA cannot but conclude that Tehran has never wavered from its intention to build a nuclear weapons capability and that its publicly declared “civilian” nuclear activities are an effort to hide its nuclear bomb program in plain sight. From the very inception of the JCPOA, however, the deal’s supporters have spun myths that disguise these self-evident truths. After Trump left the deal, those same supporters continued to recite the old myths while adding some new ones about the purported comparative advantage of the JCPOA over maximum pressure. As President Biden prepares to bring the United States back into the JCPOA, and as the public, the press, and Congress consider the deal's terms, we identify the seven most pernicious myths and explain the reality that they seek to conceal.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, National Security, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and JCPOA
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

360. How to Target Iran’s Kleptocracy

Author:: Nate Sibley
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: The death of Mahsa Amini in the custody of Iran’s so-called morality police sparked protests that continue to spread across the country, posing the most serious challenge to Tehran’s theocratic dictatorship in years. The demonstrations have focused on opposing the compulsory wearing of the hijab, but Iranians are also venting anger at a regime that has lost legitimacy after decades of political repression, economic mismanagement, and systemic corruption. Policymakers in the United States are rightly focused on constraining Iran’s nuclear program and state sponsorship of terrorism. Sanctions and other measures targeting the regime’s illicit financial networks tend to reflect these urgent priorities. But Iran’s theocratic regime is also a sprawling, deeply entrenched kleptocracy against which the US should apply more pressure. This brief examines the prevailing forms of corruption within Iran, the implications for US policy, and how the US can intensify efforts to expose and target the regime’s kleptocracy.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Corruption, Human Rights, and Kleptocracy
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

361. Seven Myths about the “Historic” Israel-Lebanon Maritime Border Agreement

Author:: Michael Doran
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: Commentators in the United States and Israel have hailed the agreement on the maritime border between Israel and Lebanon, which the Biden administration recently brokered, as a great success. They liken it to the Abraham Accords and claim that it is a major step toward normalizing relations between the Jewish State and a historic Arab foe. But a close examination of the agreement simply does not support this view. Amos Hochstein, the US State Department senior advisor for energy security, led the mediation effort to resolve this dispute. He built on the initiatives of Presidents Barack Obama and Donald Trump to reconcile the conflicting claims of Israel, which claimed Line 1 (see map) as the northern border of its exclusive economic zone (EEZ), and Lebanon, which claimed Line 23 as its southern border. In the final months of the Trump administration, Lebanese negotiators revised their claim, moving it further south to Line 29. Beirut, however, never registered this new claim with the United Nations. In other words, Line 23 always remained the official Lebanese position. When Hochstein arrived in Beirut last February, the Lebanese government abruptly dropped its insistence on Line 29 and presented its retreat as a sign of its flexibility, a compromise proposal that it could withdraw if the negotiations failed to produce satisfactory results.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Terrorism, Treaties and Agreements, Territorial Disputes, and Borders
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

362. Iraq’s state of democracy: A self-perpetuating cycle against reform in favour of the political elite

Author:: Mariette Hagglund
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: In addition to Afghanistan, Iraq has been one of the US’s major state-building projects in the 21st century. The recent events in Afghanistan have again highlighted criticism against large-scale interventions. The changes in Iraq’s electoral law have brought about some positive changes, but did not address the root causes of the problems in the political system. Institutions in Iraq are weak and marred by politicization and pressure from powerful parties. Hence, their independence is highly questionable. While improving democracy in Iraq would require radical change, taking minor steps forward remains a more attractive and doable option for the Iraqi and international leadership. However, by working with established political players, the very barriers to more significant reform are simultaneously being strengthened.
Topic:: Reform, Democracy, Elites, and Social Order
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

363. France in the Eastern Mediterranean and the MENA region’s geopolitical competition: French grandeur or European sovereignty?

Author:: Toni Alaranta
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The global rivalry between the US and China, as well as geopolitical competition and instability in the EU’s southern neighbourhood, are perceived by France as urgent matters requiring stronger EU foreign policy, conceptualized as European sovereignty. The French foreign policy elite are still largely committed to the idea of France’s exceptional role in the world, and to the extent that the EU as a whole fails to live up to the tasks presumed by France, continue their attempts at forging coalitions of the willing. France has in recent years built a web of strategic partnerships, for example with Greece, the Republic of Cyprus, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt, through which it aims to govern the instability in the EU’s southern neighbourhood. The aim is also to deter regional adversaries such as Turkey, a strategy that needs to be re-evaluated due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. France often equates its national interests with those of the EU. While this can be seen to enhance European sovereignty, it also risks increasing the perception that the EU would be a participant in various Middle Eastern conflicts. This undermines the EU’s ability to function as an objective broker and anchor of norms.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, Hegemony, Foreign Interference, and Competition
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Middle East, France, North Africa, Mediterranean, and MENA

364. Youth Politics and Activism in Turkey

Author:: Bahar Baser
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: Media outlets and polling companies have started publishing reports that claim the young people’s vote will be a game-changer in the upcoming elections. It is Generation Z, the so-called millennials, who are going to make a political statement with their vote in the Turkish elections. They constitute a sizeable portion of the eligible voters (20%) and around half of them will be casting their votes for the first time (RIS Report, 2022). Whether we are talking about Generation X, Y or Z, young people do not constitute a monolithic bloc in Turkey. The country is polarised along different ethnic, religious and ideological fault lines, and so is its youth. This is reflected in their activism, as well as their everyday lives. Turkish youth became an object of scrutiny for researchers during and after the Gezi protests and their repertoires of action and political participation were analysed by researchers both in and outside Turkey. However, new systematic studies are needed if the results the polling companies are receiving with regard to young people’s preferences and lifestyle choices in a changing Turkey are to be explained. Evidence shows that wooing youth support features on the parties’ political agendas. Strategies include investing in youth branches, organising events and festivals, as well as creating opportunities for young people, to keep them loyal to the party agendas. Do young people only express their frustration with the system through demonstrations on the streets or social media posts? No: young people are also leaving the country in protest. My recent research reveals that a sizeable group of young people tend to plan for futures outside Turkey, and that they would take any opportunity that presented itself abroad in order to leave the country permanently or temporarily.
Topic:: Politics, Elections, Youth, and Activism
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

365. Alcohol consumption in modern Turkey: Kulturkampf and polarization

Author:: Evangelos Areteos and Christina Kapodistria
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: Α culture war (Kulturkampf) is raging in Turkey, and alcohol is one of the major fronts once again. Opposing cultural identities are emerging as a powerful instrument of polarization. The ongoing culture war is revealing the AKP’s potential, but also its limits.
Topic:: Religion, Culture, Alcohol, AKP, and Polarization
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

366. Democratic-values against authoritarianism? In the end it will be [again] the economy, stupid!

Author:: Ekrem Eddy Güzeldere
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: Opposition parties around the world (e.g., in Hungary, Poland, Brazil and Turkey) have started to form alliances against authoritarian and illiberal leaders. The introduction of a presidential system in Turkey in 2018 made political parties join forces, since 50+1% would be needed to win the presidential elections. Since May 2018, first four and now six opposition parties have formed the so-called “Millet [Nation] Alliance”; almost all the polls place the Alliance well ahead of the government AKP-MHP alliance. In 2019, Millet Alliance candidates were able to win the municipal elections in Istanbul and Ankara. In May 2022, the Millet Alliance published ten clear, value-based principles, ranging from non-discrimination to freedom of the press, religion and thought through to the independence of the judiciary. The parties of the Millet Alliance are not remembered for defending democratic values in the past, but will they now? On topics like the Kurdish issue or refugees, the Millet Alliance is often harsher and more exclusionary than the government. However, the economic situation and the candidate put forward by the Millet Alliance More will be more decisive for the elections than a debate over values. Turkey does not have a choice between black and white, but rather between different shades of gray
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Democracy, Economy, Domestic Politics, and AKP
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

367. Why Turkey’s Gender Inequality Matters

Author:: Dimitris Tsarouhas
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: Women’s underrepresentation in Turkey’s public life is a persistent and long-lasting phenomenon, despite the socio-economic progress achieved over the last two decades. Some indicators suggest that the problem has been getting worse in recent years, and Turkey’s withdrawal from the Istanbul Convention in 2021 has compounded fears of a further deterioration. Discrimination against women is not only normatively wrong, it is also practically self-defeating, since it deprives the country of resources, talent and expertise it needs to raise prosperity levels. However, women’s organizations in Turkey are numerous, visible and persistent in their demands for genuine equality and an end to discrimination. To address key aspects of the problem, such as record low female employment rates, Turkey needs to return to high-level, sustainable growth and promote female entrepreneurship.
Topic:: Women, Inequality, Discrimination, Representation, and Gender
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

368. Media and Democratic Backsliding – Lessons from the Turkish Case

Author:: Eylem Yanardağoğlu
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: There has been a global trend towards democratic backsliding in various new and established democracies across the world since the 2010s. The Freedom House Freedom in the World report for 2022 noted that there have now been 15 consecutive years of decline in global freedom and that the long democratic recession is deepening. In Turkey, the AKP came to power in 2002 at a time marked by a relatively pro-European Union and pluralistic outlook in politics. The democratic backsliding in Turkey has been more obvious since 2007 and the start of the AKP’s second term in power. It deepened especially after the 2016 coup attempt and the transition to a presidential system in 2017. This democratic regression has also impacted on the media sector globally, especially through various coercive and non-coercive media capture strategies. Media concentration has been ongoing in many countries for many decades with a concomitant negative impact on media freedom, leading to a gradual decline in free and independent media. Current forms of media capture are considered more impactful than earlier methods, due to the rise of business structures that operate in tandem with state authorities to capture media outlets. In Turkey, and across those countries in which media capture is prevalent, the mainstream media is vanishing as a result of polarization; two distinct journalisms are emerging in their place, one of which is based on a propaganda model and erodes media and press freedom.
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Democracy, AKP, Polarization, Freedom of Press, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

369. Turkey’s Pivot to Eurasia: The Effect of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

Author:: Ioannis N. Grigoriadis
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: Turkey’s position in a “post-Western world” is widely debated as Asia emerges as the world’s new demographic and economic focal point. Turkey’s drive for strategic autonomy is crucial to all considerations of Eurasianism as a result of the rise of emerging powers worldwide and the transition to a multipolar international system. The emergence of a revisionist Russia, threatening to destroy the global order in place since the end of the Cold War, sent out a powerful warning to its neighbors, including Turkey. Russian-Turkish relations have not been shaped by shared identity, interest and threat perceptions; instead, they have remained largely instrumental and driven by necessity. The Turkish government cannot afford consistency in its discourse on Turkey as the “protector of the oppressed” when it comes to defending Uyghur rights against the Chinese regime. Ukraine and the West’s response to Russian aggression refuted Turkish Eurasianist claims that Ukraine was “helpless” and that the West had entered a “serious and irreversible decline”.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Strategic Interests, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, Turkey, Ukraine, and Middle East

370. Nationalism, enmity and reconciliation: Turkish party supporters’ polarized views on Greece

Author:: Evangelos Areteos
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: Supporters of the current government in Turkey have significantly stronger nationalistic attitudes towards Greece and Greeks than the supporters of the opposition parties. Turkey is extremely polarized along party lines. Religion and education significantly shape perceptions in both Turkey and Greece. In Greece, the levels of nationalism towards Turkey are significantly higher than they are in Turkey towards Greece, but vary far less across the political spectrum.
Topic:: Nationalism, Public Opinion, Reconciliation, AKP, and Polarization
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Greece

371. New Dynamics, Old Problems: Turkey’s Rapprochement Overtures in the Eastern Mediterranean

Author:: Nicholas Danforth
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: Over the past year Turkey has slowly worked to reduce tensions with regional rivals, including Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. There are limits to how far this process can go. It may produce détente but not a deeper realignment. Even though it has not led to elections, the ceasefire and ensuing political process in Libya have benefited and benefited from this reduction in tensions. Western governments should support any steps that lessen the risk of military conflict, but should not offer concessions to Ankara in pursuit of this goal.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Rapprochement
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, United Arab Emirates, and Mediterranean

372. Adapting to New Realities: Israel’s foreign policy in post-Netanyahu times

Author:: Gabriel Haritos
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: Israel had to adapt to the revised objectives of the Biden administration in the Middle East and to update its coordination with Russia on the Syria front. The war in Ukraine has reconfigured Israel’s relations with the US and Russia. Israel’s reluctance to provide arms to Ukraine has allowed Russian-Israeli coordination to continue in Syria. The energy crisis triggered by the Russo-Ukrainian war led the US to revise its stance towards Saudi Arabia. The US-Iran talks ground to a halt in Vienna in the light of the growing ties between Iran and Russia. Israel took advantage of the new state of affairs, encouraging the rapprochement between Washington and Riyadh and countering the possibility of the US reopening its consulate in East Jerusalem. In coordination with the US, Israel has promoted the deepening of the Abraham Accords and drawn India into the new Middle East reality through the new I2U2 mechanism. Thanks to carefully managed communication, the Bennett-Lapid government was able to restore diplomatic relations with Turkey while maintaining close cooperation with Greece and Cyprus. It would seem advisable to put in place additional safeguards to maintain the quality of Athens-Nicosia -Jerusalem relations, similar to those which are expected to accompany the revamped relations between Israel and Turkey.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Turkey, Ukraine, Middle East, Israel, Greece, and United States of America

373. What is new about the reset between Israel and Turkey?

Author:: Selin Nasi
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: Entering 2021, revising its foreign policy became an ever more pressing necessity for Ankara, in the light of both international and domestic developments. The Turkish government only took steps towards mending its broken ties with countries in the region, including Israel, when the economic cost of its assertive policies began to threaten Erdoğan’s rule. Israeli PM Netanyahu’s defeat in the 2021 elections provided an opportunity for Ankara to step up its diplomatic overtures toward Israel. Bilateral relations may follow a different course than they did in the 2000s, primarily because the basic parameters of the relationship between Israel and Turkey have changed since Israel made new friends in the Mediterranean and the Middle East. The erosion of institutions and the subsequent personalization of Turkish foreign policy render bilateral relations prone to crisis. For Israelis, this is a manageable risk, at least for now, given the benefits Ankara can expect from normalizing relations with Israel. Against the backdrop of an intensifying power competition between the US and China, Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine, and the current security landscape in the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean, opportunities for cooperation between Israel and Turkey remain dependent on the resolution of long-standing issues.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Israel

374. A Contested Conquest: The Many Meanings of 1453 in Turkish Political Rhetoric

Author:: Nicholas Danforth
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: Turkish politicians have invoked Ottoman history to justify everything from interfaith tolerance to aggressive irredentism. In the early years of the Cold War, shortly after Turkey and Greece joined NATO, Ankara sought to downplay anti-Greek elements in its 1453 conquest celebrations. Now, by recasting the reconversion of Hagia Sophia and Turkey’s Exclusive Economic Zone claims as matters of national sovereignty, Erdoğan has succeeded in winning support from his political opponents.
Topic:: Cold War, History, Domestic Politics, and Ottoman Empire
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

375. Turkey in Afghanistan: more than one reason to stay

Author:: Ekrem Eddy Güzeldere
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: Despite a long history of bilateral contacts, Turkey’s most intensive commitment in Afghanistan only started in 2001 with the NATO mission. A first friendship treaty was signed back in 1921; the first official foreign visit to the Republic of Turkey was made in 1928 by King Amanullah of Afghanistan. Turkey’s engagement in South Asia started with Afghanistan but has recently been Pakistan-centred. As the only majority-Muslim NATO country, Turkey was viewed more positively by the Afghan population and the Taliban than other NATO member states. Ankara has been reaching out to the Taliban since summer 2021. However, the Taliban have not met Turkish demands for a more inclusive government, or in relation to girls’ education. Turkey has become a haven for non-Taliban (opposition) Afghans, who are told not to voice their criticism of the Taliban. There are four main motivations for Turkey’s engagement in Afghanistan: 1) improving relations with the US; 2) stabilizing Afghanistan to prevent migrant flows; 3) getting a foothold in the geopolitics of the region; 4) benefitting from the economic potential. Kabul international airport is important both for the Taliban and for Turkey. For the Taliban, it is their window to the world; for Turkey, it is an opportunity to profit economically and to boost its international status. In Afghanistan, Turkey’s soft power approach includes TIKA (Turkish Cooperation and Coordination Agency), the Maarif schools, and the Yunus Emre Institute. These institutions have remained operational. In 2020, Afghanistan received the third largest amount of Turkish developmental aid, amounting to 36.5 million USD. Even if the world, and Turkey, are currently focused on Ukraine, Afghanistan will continue to occupy an important place in Turkey’s regional foreign policy.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Taliban, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Turkey, and Middle East

376. Greece and Turkey in the world today: the public’s view

Author:: Ioannis N. Grigoriadis, Panagiota Manoli, and Evangelos Areteos
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: The Policy Paper by Ioannis N. Grigoriadis, Senior Research Fellow, Head of ELIAMEP Turkey Programme; Associate Professor, University of Bilkent; Panagiota Manoli, Research Fellow, ELIAMEP; Assistant Professor of Political Economy of International Relations, University of Peloponnese and Evangelos Areteos, Research Associate at ELIAMEP Turkey Programme, highlights the main findings of the third joint poll in Greece and Turkey, which took place in the first ten days of May 2022. Among other things, it aims to capture and compare the perceptions of Greek and Turkish public opinion regarding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the role of the United States and NATO in European security, and Greek and Turkish identity.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, NATO, and Public Opinion
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Greece

377. Turkey’s quest for Strategic Autonomy

Author:: Alexandros Diakopoulos
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: Ankara is pursuing a radical revision of the regional status quo by projecting power in neighboring regions with increasing aggression and disregard for international legality. Turkey moved from a security-based to a power-based foreign policy and took advantage of the power vacuum in Eastern Mediterranean to make a bid for regional hegemony by resorting to the use of hard power. The Turkish army developed autonomous expeditionary capabilities, bolstered by a strengthened national defense industry. The lessons learned in Syria clearly informed the series of Turkish foreign policy moves that followed. A revisionist Turkey involved itself in all regional theaters of conflict, fomenting instability in the region while also reaping strategic and economic benefits. These interventions shaped Turkish-Russian competitive cooperation and strategic realignment. Since 2016 the relationship has evolved into something almost symbiotic, with the two countries coordinating their presence on multiple fronts. The two countries are drawn to one another by their shared authoritarian models of governance and similar strategic cultures and operational codes: Both countries are revisionist, aggressive and assertive on their peripheries. Both countries claim to be surrounded, which serves as a pretext for their unilateral actions. Both countries have militarized their foreign policy by conducting hybrid warfare, using surrogate forces and coercing countries that resist.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Authoritarianism, Strategic Autonomy, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Russia, Turkey, and Middle East

378. A New History for a New Turkey: What a 12th-grade textbook has to say about Turkey’s future

Author:: Nicholas Danforth
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: Contemporary Turkish and World History synthesizes Turkey’s rival political traditions into a coherent anti-imperialist narrative. It presents the military, economic and cultural struggle for a fully independent Turkey as the driving force in the country’s 20th century history. In this account, both Turkey’s much-touted drone program and ambivalence toward NATO appear as the natural culmination of long-running trends.
Topic:: NATO, Education, History, Drones, and Textbook
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

379. The Akkuyu NPP and Russian-Turkish Nuclear Cooperation: Asymmetries and risks

Author:: Ioannis N. Grigoriadis and Eliza Gheorghe
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: By ratifying the 2016 Paris Agreement, Turkey has vowed to reduce the use of fossil fuels and promote clean and renewable energy production. The Turkish government has embraced nuclear energy as a solution to cutting carbon dioxide emissions. Turkey’s first nuclear power plant, Akkuyu NPP, is being built by Russia’s state-owned nuclear energy corporation, Rosatom, under a Build-Own-Operate contract, the first of its kind in the world. The Akkuyu NPP will reinforce Turkey’s dependence on Russia for the next six decades. The Akkuyu NPP presents considerable environmental risks for the whole Eastern Mediterranean.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Nuclear Energy, and Asymmetric Relations
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, Turkey, and Middle East

380. Regional power competition in the Eastern Mediterranean: the return of naval power and the changes technology brings

Author:: Vassilis Nedos
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: Energy games and the territorialization of maritime zones are the main reasons for the renewed arms race and regional competition in the East Mediterranean. The East Mediterranean is home to quite diverse fleets in terms of capabilities and technology. In terms of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) field capabilities, Israel is the local champion while Turkey is an emerging power; the remaining regional actors lag behind. Top-tier technology items manufactured mostly by the US aeronautical industry are either too expensive or are restricted to local actors; as a result, Israel and subsequently Turkey have developed indigenous capabilities over the last few years, which are highly exportable. Even though the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the war now raging in the country has to some extent overshadowed the rising tensions in the East Mediterranean (which culminated in the standoff between the Greek and Turkish fleets between August and November 2020), there are still issues that need to be resolved which stem directly from the military build-up and the power balance, which has been seriously disturbed. Greece is already invested in catching up in terms both of numbers and technological capabilities. Nonetheless, to date, these efforts have failed to close the gap for two main reasons: Firstly, the agreements signed so far include little or no transfer of technology and know-how; Secondly, the local capabilities in both ship building and the aeronautical industry suffer from the perennial Greek state maladies. Investing in local AI technologies and solving the “Gordian knot” of the shipyards are prerequisites for developing local infrastructure capable of competing regionally in the long run.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Navy, Strategic Competition, and Regional Power
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Greece, and Mediterranean

381. Achieving qualitative superiority: Greek conscription and the Turkish threat

Author:: Antonis Kamaras and Nikos Stournaras
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: This policy paper argues that, by emulating its peer countries, wealthy, small to medium sized democracies facing national security threats, in Northern Europe and the Middle East (namely Finland, Norway, Denmark, Sweden and Israel), Greece can modernize its conscript component and thus attain qualitative superiority over the Turkish Army. Turkey’s conscript model is riven by deep-seated class, geographical and ethnic cleavages, giving to Greek political and military leaders the opportunity to gain a qualitative military edge through judicious modernization of the Greek conscript model. Such a modernization is eminently feasible today as Greece’s economic crisis has created the political space to overcome resistance to the reform of conscription. By contrast, Greece’s main national security threat, Turkey, belongs to that group of authoritarian or illiberal countries which have suboptimal conscription models, featuring evasion of conscript service by the well-educated, inefficient training and harsh, counterproductive treatment of those conscripts who do serve. Greece, also due to its post WWII illiberalism or authoritarianism, and not unlike Taiwan which has a similar legacy, has not infused its conscript component with demanding training and operational standards, roles and missions. The time is ripe, due to the resurgence of the Turkish threat and Greece’s economic crisis, which has removed many of the country’s outdated shibboleths, to modernise Greek conscription, as its peer countries have done, and thus acquire an Army qualitatively superior to that of Turkey. By doing so, Greek policy-makers will decisively strengthen Greece’s deterrence and produce positive externalities for the consripts themselves . Indeed, the more effective conscription becomes in operational terms for the Greek Armed Forces, the greater the benefits to be reaped in civilian life.
Topic:: Security, National Security, Armed Forces, Deterrence, and Conscription
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Greece

382. Turkey’s “anti-colonial” pivot to Mali: French-Turkish competition and the role of the European Union in the Sahel

Author:: Ioannis N. Grigoriadis and Dawid A. Fusiek
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: Turkey’s rising foreign policy ambitions have been best reflected in its pivot to Africa. One of the tropes used by the Erdoğan administration to advance its cause are references to the colonial heritage of the European Union (EU) and its member states. The AKP and its officials have employed this discourse to challenge the French influence in Mali since the 2020 coup d’état. As this paper shows, Turkey uses anti-colonial discourse to exploit postcolonial sentiments with a view to challenging the political and economic power of Western actors, to portraying Turkey as a legitimate and “anti-colonial” ally and partner and, in the long run, to establishing a robust Turkish presence in Mali, the Sahel and beyond. In order to counter Turkish influence, the EU needs to promote fair cooperation with Mali and West Africa, to assist with political and economic development in the region, and to mobilise Member States which are unencumbered with a colonial past.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, European Union, Anti-Colonialism, and Competition
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, France, Mali, and Sahel

383. Global threat landscape 2022

Author:: Liu Chunlin and Rohan Gunaratna
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: Three trends will characterise the evolving global terror threat landscape in 2022. First, the cascading implications of the return of the Taliban-al Qaeda alliance to Afghanistan on August 15, 2021. Second, the diffusion of the Islamic State threat from the Levant, notably from Iraqi-Syrian theatre. Third, the online surge of extremist and violent content especially of Islamist and Far Right entities on servers in North America and Europe mobilising and radicalizing especially youth. With lockdowns, partial lockdowns and other pandemic restrictions, the challenges facing government security forces - military, law enforcement and intelligence surged and both in resource allocation for training and mobility for operations hampered their performance and efficacy. The focus on humanitarian challenges by governments during the pandemic was ably exploited by threat groups to expand their support bases or capture territory. On the other hand, a range of ideological and material threats manifested in 2021. Some will institutionalise both in the physical and digital spaces in 2022. With radicalisation and reciprocal radicalisation of Islamists and Far Right threat groups, their networks, cells and personalities will stage attacks.
Topic:: Taliban, Radicalization, Al Qaeda, Islamic State, Islamism, and Digital Space
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Iraq, South Asia, Middle East, and Syria

384. Los Estados medio-orientales en su competencia por recursos y alianzas en África subsahariana (2000-2021)

Author:: Rafael Bustos and Juan Carlos Pastor
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: El artículo explora la importancia antigua y nueva que para estos países de Oriente Medio tiene el continente africano a principios del siglo XXI. Para algunos de ellos es un interés histórico arraigado como es el caso de Egipto y su presencia en Sudán y las fuentes del Nilo, el de Turquía ligado al Imperio otomano o el de Omán, cuya vieja relación se remonta al comercio de esclavos y al control de Zanzíbar desde finales del siglo XVII, mientras que para Arabia Saudí o Irán esa relación data de los años 70 y para Emiratos Árabes Unidos y Catar este interés es mucho más reciente y arranca en el siglo XXI. Intereses que tienen múltiples vectores, entre los que destacan la competencia por la hegemonía regional de Oriente Medio, el prestigio, la intermediación y, en menor medida, pero también la compra de tierras cultivables en suelo africano. Por su parte, Israel, aunque es un actor que tratamos secundariamente, persigue también desde hace poco una agenda propia que resulta claramente distinguible del resto.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Alliance, Rivalry, and Competition
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa

385. África: Competencia y sustitución en un entorno estratégico de rivalidad. Introducción al número especial

Author:: María Ángeles Alaminos and Antonio Marquina
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: Este número especial de la Revista UNISCI se centra en la rivalidad creciente entre Estados existente en África y pretende ofrecer una visión comprehensiva del papel de distintos actores internacionales estatales en el continente africano, abarcando tanto el rol de las antiguas potencias coloniales, como la expansión creciente de China y el auge de la presencia e intervención de nuevos actores estatales con intereses políticos y económicos en el continente.
Topic:: European Union, State Actors, Rivalry, and Competition
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, China, United Kingdom, Europe, Middle East, France, Latin America, and United States of America

386. Risk and Responsibility: Managing Future Iranian Weapons of Mass Destruction Threats

Author:: Becca Wasser and Jennie Matuschak
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: Washington is reimagining its global role, leading the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) to make difficult choices about priorities, resources, and risk to better address the long-term “pacing challenge” posed by China. To do so, the United States plans to accept risks in the Middle East and against future Iran threats. Iran’s possession and potential use of weapons of mass destruction (WMDs)—specifically, its nuclear program, chemical weapons, and biological agents—pose the greatest threat to U.S. interests and Washington’s ability to accept risk in the region. But how Iran might leverage WMDs to threaten U.S. interests and upend Washington’s plans to make trade-offs in global responsibilities is unclear, while the risks of failing to address these challenges remain high. As a result, the DoD and its component organizations, such as the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA), must enhance their understanding of the threat posed by Iran’s nuclear, chemical, and biological capabilities and the escalation dynamics surrounding Iranian WMDs during crisis and conflict. By doing so, the United States can better accept risk in the Middle East and revise its global priorities while still protecting core U.S. interests. To improve the DoD’s understanding of future Iranian WMD-related threats and escalation dynamics, the Gaming Lab at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) conducted a series of three virtual strategic-operational tabletop exercises (TTXs) exploring future Iranian nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons use. The TTXs indicated that even if Iran acquires a nuclear weapon, the likelihood the regime will use it is low. Instead, the regime may be more likely to use chemical and biological weapons to escalate conflict. Moreover, there are significant asymmetries between American and Iranian views of conflict timelines, escalation redlines, and risk tolerance, all of which make it difficult to offer and signal credible ways to de-escalate a crisis. Differences between Washington’s risk acceptance and that of its regional partners—Israel, in particular—further complicate U.S.-Iran interactions. The TTXs aimed to enable the United States to identify where and how it might mitigate the risk it must accept to better marshal resources in support of the department’s strategic guidance. Accepting greater risk against Iran and in the Middle East more broadly means shifting U.S. strategic priorities in the region. This shift has the potential to unsettle allies and partners, and may possibly embolden Iran in the near term, but such tough choices must be made if the United States wishes to prioritize other long-term threats that may be of greater impact to U.S. security, such as China.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Weapons, and Risk
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

387. Aligning U.S.-Israeli Cooperation on Technology Issues and China

Author:: Jonathan Schanzer, Shira Efron, Martijn Rasser, and Alice Hickson
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: The United States and Israel have a long history of working together as close allies. Theirs is a relationship based on common values and security interests. In recent years, the alliance’s highlights have included close cooperation on counterterrorism and intelligence, as well as deepening economic ties, technological cooperation, and mutual knowledge transfer. The United States continues to provide Israel with significant security assistance based on a memorandum of understanding signed by both countries in 2016, which commits the United States to provide Israel with at least $3.8 billion per year in aid. The relationship is further strengthened by deep personal connections at the government and business levels as well as through collaboration between the two countries’ technology sectors. In recent years, however, the United States and Israel have differed regarding their threat perceptions and approaches to China. Whereas Israel sees China primarily as an economic partner and is increasing its ties with the country, the consensus view in Washington increasingly sees China as a global strategic rival—militarily, economically, and technologically—even while the Joe Biden administration preserves space for cooperation with Beijing in areas of common interest. In recent years, U.S. and Israeli officials have had public and private disagreements over several Chinese investments in Israeli infrastructure and technology. Although Chinese investments in Israel have declined since their peak in 2018, and even though these disagreements have yet to be aired publicly by the Biden administration and the Naftali Bennett–Yair Lapid government, this issue is likely to remain high on the agenda. The most critical challenges in the bilateral relationship are technology protection and collaborative innovation. Chinese investment in Israeli technology companies, including those that develop dual-use technologies, remains largely unregulated. Although Israel does not export defense technology to China and has placed stringent regulation on the export of dual-use technologies, the line between civilian and dual use is increasingly blurred, and Israel has yet to fully adapt to this reality. Washington, for its part, has not been entirely clear about how it expects American companies and allies to limit their roles. The United States has been slow to offer alternatives to allies such as Israel for forgoing cooperation with China and has yet to develop a collaborative technological innovation framework that builds on the cumulative strengths of the United States and its allies, benefits all, and helps to tip the balance in the technological competition with Beijing. To address the multidimensional challenge presented by China, the United States must enhance collaboration with its allies, including Israel, its closest partner in the Middle East. Fortunately, when the United States and Israel have had differing perspectives in the past, they have successfully engaged in deep bilateral consultations to work through these differences. These efforts have not always resulted in complete alignment, but they have significantly reduced disagreements and allowed for greater cooperation. This paper represents the most comprehensive public analysis to date of the challenges facing U.S.-Israeli cooperation on issues related to technology and China. It proposes an approach for the United States and Israel to align their policies and bridge differences by focusing on three central areas.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Science and Technology, Bilateral Relations, and Alliance
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America

388. Research Report: Perspectives on Youth Engagement in Operationalizing Peace and Security at a National Level

Author:: Katrina Leclerc
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Global Network of Women Peacebuilders (GNWP)
Abstract:: This research report summarizes findings of a rapid study of variations in the ways young people, ages 15-30, especially young women, are engaged in country-level planning on issues of peace and security across six country case studies: the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Iraq (including the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, or the KRI), Jordan, Nigeria, the Philippines and Tunisia. The research findings provide a preliminary indication of some common concerns expressed by young people who are engaged in peace activism. These concerns include the ways government officials seek to engage youth in national peace and security initiatives and policy development. Particular attention was paid to how young women are encouraged to participate and the ways their specific concerns are addressed within youth-led peacebuilding organizations and networks, in both official Youth, Peace and Security (YPS) processes and by organizations involved in implementing the Women, Peace and Security Resolutions.
Topic:: Security, Youth, Peace, and Gender
Political Geography:: Africa, Iraq, Middle East, Asia, Philippines, Nigeria, Jordan, Tunisia, and Democratic Republic of Congo

389. October 2022 Issue

Author:: Michael Knights, Adnan al-Gabarni, Casey Coombs, and Brian Michael
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: With a truce in Yemen that had lasted six months elapsing in early October, there is concern that Yemen will once again be plunged into civil war and that the Tehran-allied Houthi militants will once again threaten Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates with drones and ballistic missiles. In this month’s feature article, Michael Knights, Adnan al-Gabarni, and Casey Coombs provide a “fuller understanding of the Houthi political-military leadership, its core motivations, and the nature and extent of Iranian and Lebanese Hezbollah influence within the movement.” Their study argues that “the Houthi movement is now more centralized and cohesive than ever, in part due to close mentoring from Lebanese Hezbollah and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.” They conclude that “the Houthi Jihad Council is emerging as a remarkable partner for Iran and the Houthi-Iran relationship and should no longer be viewed as a relationship of necessity, but rather a strong, deep-rooted alliance that is underpinned by tight ideological affinity and geopolitical alignment. The emergence of a ‘southern Hezbollah’ is arguably now a fact on the ground.” In this month’s feature commentary, Brian Michael Jenkins thinks through what elements are necessary for a pragmatic and non-partisan strategy to counter domestic political violence. He writes that “Americans appear to reside in separate cultural and political camps. Increasing threats against public officials and displays of public hostility have prompted growing apprehension of future political violence. It is in this fragile and fraught environment that any efforts to contain politically motivated violence will have to operate.” He stresses that it is important to recognize “the limits of what law enforcement can do while addressing the greater challenge of national reconciliation.” Our interview is with Air Vice-Marshal Sean Corbett, the founder and CEO of IntSight Global, a management consultancy within the intelligence and security sector with a focus on open-source intelligence. During his 30-year service in the Royal Air Force, Air Vice-Marshal Corbett worked in key leadership roles, including as Chief of U.K. Intelligence in Afghanistan and was the first non-U.S. Deputy Director of a major U.S. intelligence agency in serving in Washington, D.C., at the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA).
Topic:: Political Violence, Violent Extremism, Geopolitics, Hezbollah, Houthis, and Command and Control
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Yemen, and Lebanon

390. July 2022 Issue

Author:: Amarnath Amarasingam, Marc-Andre Argentino, Graham Macklin, Stevie Weinberg, Rodger Shanahan, and Matteo Pugliese
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: In this month’s feature article, Amarnath Amarasingam, Marc-André Argentino, and Graham Macklin examine the May 2022 extreme far-right live-streamed terrorist attack at a grocery store in Buffalo, New York, in which 10 Black Americans were murdered “in one of the deadliest racist massacres in recent American history.” Their article examines the perpetrator, his pathway to violence, how he plotted the attack, and his writings. They argue that “the Buffalo massacre was not an isolated phenomenon. Indeed, one can only fully comprehend it when considered within a continuum of self-referential extreme-right terrorism inspired by the March 2019 terrorist attack on two mosques in Christchurch, New Zealand,” that had “a catalytic effect upon extreme-right actors, sparking a chain reaction of mass shootings.” Our interview is with Nitzan Nuriel, the former director of the Counter-Terrorism Bureau in the Prime Minister’s Office of Israel. It is the second in a series of articles and interviews examining the terrorist threat landscape in Israel and the lessons other countries can learn from Israel’s counterterrorism efforts. The series is a joint effort between the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point (CTC) and the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT) at Reichman University in Israel. Rodger Shanahan “uses data from Australian terrorism trials in the Islamic State era to examine the degree to which mental health issues exist among terrorism offenders and whether there is any causal link.” His findings “support the view that Islamist terrorists’ mental health is largely the same as the general population and finds that there is little evidence to support any causal link between mental health and terrorism.” Matteo Pugliese profiles convicted Islamic State terror planner Muaz al-Fizani, whose jihadi career “spanned two decades and three continents” taking the hardline Tunisian extremist from Italy to Bosnia and Afghanistan and from Tunisia to Libya, from where he helped plan a wave of terror in Tunisia in 2015 that resulted in the deaths of many Western tourists.
Topic:: Counter-terrorism, Far Right, Mass Shootings, and Racism
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North Africa, North America, Tunisia, and United States of America

391. June 2022 Issue

Author:: Tara Candland, Ryan O'Farrell, Lauren Poole, Caleb Weiss, and Boaz Ganor
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: In this month’s feature article, Boaz Ganor looks at the lessons that should be learned from the spring 2022 terror wave in Israel. His analysis kicks off the “CTC-ICT Focus on Israel” series, a joint effort between the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point (CTC) and the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT) at Reichman University in Israel. In the coming months, the series will examine the terrorist threat landscape in Israel and the lessons other countries can learn from Israel’s counterterrorism efforts. The two feature analysis articles focus on the foreign fighter problem set in Ukraine and the evolving linkages to far-right extremism of actors on both sides of the conflict. Kacper Rekawek finds that unlike in 2014, “the 2022 conflict has, for the most part, not energized Western right-wing extremists, nor persuaded them to travel. In what is for Ukrainians a war for national survival and a fight to secure a Western democratic future for the country, the allure of the far-right in Ukraine has dimmed. Ukrainian units with far-right histories are now deeply integrated into Ukraine’s armed forces and eschew foreign recruitment, and one of those units, the Azov Regiment, was decimated during the siege of Mariupol. Very few foreign right-wing extremists have been recruited into Ukraine’s International Legion. In fact, anecdotal evidence suggests most of the foreign fighters who have traveled this year to fight on the Ukrainian side are fighting to safeguard Ukraine’s future as a Western democracy.” Don Rassler examines key concerns and questions about the war in Ukraine that are relevant to counterterrorism practitioners. Continuing this month’s focus on the impact of nefarious Russian actions, Christopher Faulkner examines the activities in Africa of the Wagner Group, a Russian private military company closely tied to the Kremlin. He writes: “Wagner’s role in Africa poses a severe threat to the security and stability of African states as well as the strategic interests of the United States and allied nations.” Finally, Tara Candland, Ryan O’Farrell, Laren Poole, and Caleb Weiss assess the rising threat to Central Africa posed by the 2021 transformation of the Islamic State’s Congolese branch.
Topic:: Violent Extremism, Counter-terrorism, Democracy, Islamic State, Far Right, Wagner Group, and Foreign Fighters
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, Israel, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, and Central Africa

392. May 2022 Issue

Author:: Gary A. Ackerman, Zachary Kallenborn, Philipp C. Bleek, Paul Cruickshank, Audrey Kurth Cronin, and Jaime Yassif
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: With more than a million Americans dead from COVID-19 and the pandemic associated directly or indirectly with around 15 million deaths globally by the end of 2021 according to World Health Organization estimates, it is essential to reassess the global biological threat landscape, including the possibility that bioterrorists or other bad actors might seek to exploit advances in biotechnology to engineer a future pandemic. In a joint effort, the Combating Terrorism Center and the Department of Chemistry and Life Science at West Point have assembled some of the best and brightest thinkers in the counterterrorism, policy, and scientific communities around the world for their perspectives and analysis on the evolution of the biological threat picture. The result is a two-volume set of special issues, with the second volume being published this month. In the feature article, Gary Ackerman, Zachary Kallenborn, and Philipp Bleek present a bioterrorism classification schema to evaluate the pandemic’s impact on bioterrorism. They assess that “when it comes to bioterrorism, the pandemic probably has not moved the needle much. Although COVID-19 might encourage apocalyptic cults, some radical environmentalists, some extreme right-wing groups, and some Islamist extremist groups toward biological weapons, most other terrorist groups are more likely to be discouraged. The pandemic has bolstered some terrorists’ bio-related capabilities but in at most modest ways. At the same time, lessons from the COVID-19 experience may both help reduce the consequences of a future attack and heighten perceptions of bioterrorism risk.” Our interview is with Shmuel Shapira, who served as Director General of the Israel Institute for Biological Research between 2013 and 2021. Audrey Kurth Cronin argues that “the most significant new risks of [biological] attacks come largely from insider threats by knowledgeable scientists with questionable motives, proxy actors backed by adversarial states, or even those experimenting with new biotechnologies irresponsibly.” She writes that “the old threats of bioterrorism remain, but they are joined by new ones that are falling between the seams of biology and other disciplines, especially engineering, data science, and computer science, and especially at the intersection between molecular biology and artificial intelligence.” Jaime Yassif argues it is vital to “take action to safeguard the life sciences to prevent biotechnology catastrophe, in addition to bolstering law enforcement and intelligence capabilities to more effectively anticipate and prevent bioterrorism and other biological threats.” She writes: “In biosecurity, there is no single solution or intervention that can eliminate all risk. That is why a layered defense is needed, in which multiple interventions in aggregate add up to substantial risk reduction.”
Topic:: Science and Technology, Counter-terrorism, COVID-19, Biotechnology, and Bioterrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Global Focus

393. March 2022 Issue

Author:: Bennett Clifford, Daniel H. Heinke, Audrey Alexander, Teddy Macdonald, and Richard M. Yon
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: “The January 15, 2022, hostage crisis at a Jewish synagogue in Colleyville, Texas, resurfaced a longstanding jihadi cause when the armed hostage-taker demanded the release of Dr. Aafia Siddiqui, a Pakistani neuroscientist-turned-al-Qa`ida-operative currently serving an 86-year-sentence in an American prison for attempting to murder U.S. troops in Afghanistan,” writes Bennett Clifford in this month’s feature article, which looks at how her case continues to motivate jihadi terror plots in the United States. Clifford argues that “the factors that initially skyrocketed her case as a cause célèbre for jihadis have grown in importance. The jihadi movement, particularly in the West, has had a particularly intense focus on the plight of Western women jihadis behind bars during the past several years … [and] Siddiqui is the prototype for the ‘aseerat,’ the female prisoners of the jihadi movement who are constantly the subject of propaganda pushes, crowdfunding campaigns, and jihadi operational activities.” Our interview is with David Caulfield, who served as Chief of the Defense Combating Terrorism Center at the Defense Intelligence Agency before his retirement earlier this year. Daniel Heinke assesses that the Querdenken protest movement in Germany, which emerged in 2020 in opposition to government COVID-19 measures, is “apparently open to conspiracy theories and right-wing extremism” and has become “a serious threat to public security.” He notes that not only did Querdenken protestors attempt to storm Germany’s parliament building in August 2020, prefiguring the January 6 U.S. Capitol riot, but an alleged 2021 plot to assassinate Saxony’s premier was “reportedly fueled by corona-skeptic grievances and apparently had linkages to the broader Querdenken movement.” He writes: “The threat posed by the movement is that it can fuel anti-government sentiments and thus may form a gateway for the acceptance of more extremist views and ultimately for the belief that resorting to violence may be acceptable or even necessary to defend rights.” Audrey Alexander and Teddy MacDonald examine how jihadi terrorists in Syria move, hide, and access funds using digital currencies. They assess that “All in all, digital currencies are not replacing other methods of terror finance. Instead, terrorists in Syria often use digital currencies in conjunction with other money service businesses and transfer methods.”
Topic:: Security, Counter-terrorism, Jihad, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Middle East, Syria, North America, and United States of America

394. February 2022 Issue

Author:: Matthew Levitt, Paul Cruickshank, Kristina Hummel, Don Rassler, Charlie Winter, and Abdullah Alrhmoun
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: Notwithstanding the possibility of a deal soon being reached to revive the JCPOA nuclear deal with Iran, nefarious activity by Iran continues to pose significant counterterrorism and security concerns. In this month’s feature article, Matthew Levitt examines trends in Iranian external assassination, surveillance, and abduction plots based on a dataset of 98 Iranian plots from 1979 through 2021. Levitt notes that “perhaps the most important finding to emerge from this study is the fact that Iran pursues international assassination, abduction, terror, and surveillance plots in a very aggressive fashion, even at times and in places that are particularly sensitive. With the exception of a period right after the 9/11 attacks … Iranian operatives and proxies have carried out operations even during periods of key negotiations—including current negotiations over a return to the JCPOA.” He adds: “Today, with the revolutionary leadership solidifying control over key elements of power in Iran, and with an eye toward protecting the revolution at a time when the revolutionary leadership sees increasing threat coming from elements both foreign and domestic, operations like these are likely to increase.” Our interview is with Randall Blake, who recently retired from U.S. government service after spending 35 years working in a variety of critical roles in the counterterrorism enterprise, including most recently as National Intelligence Officer for Transnational Threats at the National Intelligence Council. Charlie Winter and Abdullah Alrhmoun assess the trajectory in Syria of the Islamic State in the wake of its fluctuating fortunes so far this year. The group’s multi-day assault on Ghwayran prison in northeastern Syria was “by a significant margin, the highest impact and most complex operation launched by the Islamic State in Syria since its territorial defeat.” But just days later, the Islamic State’s leader, who had orchestrated the prison attack, was ‘removed from the battlefield’ during a U.S. raid. Winter and Alrhmoun’s analysis of Islamic State attack claims in Syria since the group’s territorial defeat in March 2019 “suggests Islamic State cadres in Syria may have been saving their energies to carry out a large strike, cutting through the notion that previous declines in operational activity were a sign of weakening or that the prison attack necessarily portends a resurgence.” They add: “In Syria, the Ghwayran prison attack was an example of the latent threat posed by the Islamic State exploding into view. Whatever the monthly ebb and flow of Islamic State operations in Syria, the group is likely to persist as a threat for the foreseeable future.”
Topic:: Intelligence, Counter-terrorism, Islamic State, Surveillance, Assassination, and Abductions
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

395. January 2022 Issue

Author:: Michael Knights, Alex Almeida, Don Rassler, Brian Fishman, and Amira Jadoon
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: Notwithstanding a night attack that killed 11 Iraqi soldiers on an army base in the Iraqi province of Diyala earlier this month, the Islamic State is at its lowest ebb in Iraq in many years, according to new data published by Michael Knights and Alex Almeida in this month’s feature article. They write that “a comprehensive analysis of attack metrics shows an insurgency that has deteriorated in both the quality of its operations and overall volume of attack activity, which has fallen to its lowest point since 2003. The Islamic State is increasingly isolated from the population, confined to remote rural backwaters controlled by Iraq’s less effective armed forces and militias, and lacks reach into urban centers.” They note that “the key analytical quandary that emerges from this picture is whether the downtrend marks the onset of an enduring decline for the group, or if the Islamic State is merely lying low while laying the groundwork for its survival as a generational insurgency.” In this month’s interview, Amy Zegart speaks to Brian Fishman and Don Rassler about her soon-to-be published book Spies, Lies, and Algorithms: The History and Future of American Intelligence. In the interview, she calls for the creation in the United States of a dedicated open-source intelligence agency because “OSINT will never get the priority or resources the nation needs without its own agency.” Amira Jadoon, Abdul Sayed, and Andrew Mines assess the threat trajectory of Islamic State Khorasan (ISK) in the wake of the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan. They assess that “given the absence of multilateral counterterrorism pressure, the Taliban’s limited capacity to govern, and a worsening humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan, ISK now finds itself perhaps in the most permissive environment yet to rebuild, rally, and expand.” Drawing on extensive fieldwork, including interviews with bandits and jihadi defectors, James Barnett, Murtala Ahmed Rufa’i, and Abdulaziz Abdulaziz examine the nexus between Nigeria’s bandits and jihadi organizations in northwestern Nigeria. They find that despite widespread fears bandits and jihadis would find common cause, there has been infrequent cooperation between them because they have conflicting approaches in their treatment of local inhabitants and because the more powerful bandits feel they have little to gain from working with the jihadis.
Topic:: Crime, Insurgency, Taliban, Counter-terrorism, and Islamic State
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Africa, Iraq, South Asia, Middle East, and Nigeria

396. Iran Entangled: Iran and Hezbollah’s Support to Proxies Operating in Syria

Author:: Nakissa Jahanbani and Suzanne Weedon Levy
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: At a time when power dynamics in the Middle East region are in flux due to the shifting circumstances of the Islamic State, the drawdown of U.S. troops in the region, and the intensification of Iranian-backed attacks on U.S. and Saudi Arabian targets in the region, an historical look at the support Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) provided to proxies during the Syrian civil war may yield insights into Iran’s past and present playbook not only in Syria but potentially other contexts. The civil war in Syria was a unique catalyst that intensified Iranian economic, political, and religious activity in the country, which was ongoing since the 1980s. During the conflict, Iran demonstrated the ability to exert influence tactically while also building a religious and social support base in Syrian society. Iran achieved these goals, in part, through raising and supporting various non-state militant groups in Syria. Drawing on open sources and interviews with subject matter experts, this report investigates the nature of Iranian and LH support to proxies operating in Syria from 2011 to 2019. While the nature of Iran’s proxy network is dynamic, it is useful to investigate the network at its peak years to understand existing and potential future structures and capabilities for Iranian external operations. This report investigates support from Iranian actors—inclusive of the IRGC and its various components, notably the Quds Force (IRGC-QF), as well as the Iranian government more generally—and LH through the lens of kinetic (e.g., joint attacks between the militias and Iranian actors and/or LH, personnel placed with militias, and training and weapons provided to militias) and non-kinetic assistance (e.g., funding, logistical support, recruitment and social service assistance, and meetings between Iranian actors and/or LH and militias). Looking at these two categories of support provides a more holistic snapshot of Iranian influence and capacity-building with proxies in Syria. The report’s findings indicate a pattern of support on the part of Iran and LH that potentially indicates a phased rollout of battlefield-related supports to be replaced with longer-term societal entrenchment efforts. Furthermore, Iran and LH share a division of labor between Iranian actors and LH for kinetic supports, but not non-kinetic ones. Specifically, this report found training, weapons provisions, funding, and joint attacks among the most common supports provided by Iran and LH. Finally, of all Iranian actors, this report found the IRGC to be the most prolific supporter to proxies operating in Syria.
Topic:: Terrorism, Weapons, Syrian War, Hezbollah, Proxy War, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC), Strategy, and Military Tactics
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Syria

397. Survivor-Centred Justice for Gender-Based Violence in Complex Situations

Author:: The George Washington University The Global Women's Institute (GWI)
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: The Global Women's Institute (GWI), The George Washington University
Abstract:: The report Survivor-Centred Justice for Gender-Based Violence in Complex Situations is the result of new research conducted by IDLO, in partnership with the Global Women’s Institute at George Washington University, in six countries across the globe with the aim to identify approaches that centre survivors in all efforts to address gender-based violence (GBV) in complex situations. The report is informed by country case studies in Afghanistan, Honduras, Papua New Guinea, the Philippines, South Sudan, and Tunisia, to provide different perspectives of complexity in accessing justice and an analysis of diverse justice mechanisms dealing with GBV in situations of conflict, organized crime, climate disasters, and health emergencies, often intersecting with contexts of legal pluralism and political transition. Research findings show that, in order to be effective, measures and programmes aimed at ensuring access to justice for GBV survivors need to be responsive to women’s specific needs and vulnerabilities, as well as relevant to contextual challenges, while firmly anchored in international gender equality and human rights legal obligations.
Topic:: Gender Issues, Gender Based Violence, Justice, and Group Survival
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Africa, Middle East, Asia, Philippines, Central America, North America, Tunisia, Honduras, South Sudan, and Papua New Guinea

398. Gearing Up the Fight Against Impunity: Dedicated Investigative and Prosecutorial Capacities

Author:: Howard Varney and Katarzyna Zdunczky
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
Abstract:: Holding perpetrators to account for the worst crimes known to humanity is one of the most important responsibilities of the community of nations in the 21st century. Notwithstanding the appalling nature of atrocity crimes, most perpetrators do not face justice. Specialized investigative and prosecutorial units, however, offer a ray of hope in this otherwise bleak justice landscape. Such units now operate in several countries around the world, including Argentina, Bosnia and Herzegovina, France, and Germany. This report, which was prepared jointly by ICTJ and the Foundation for Human Rights emerges from efforts to persuade the South African government to create a dedicated capacity to investigate and prosecute apartheid-era crimes, which have been long neglected. The report considers ways of gearing up the fight against impunity for serious international crimes and crimes of the past. It compares countries that leave atrocity crimes to the general administration of justice and those that adopt a specialized or dedicated approach. Specialized prosecutorial and investigative capacities are entities that focus exclusively on a particular category of crimes. While specialized units vary in size, structure, staffing, and operations, innovations such as prosecution-led investigations and bringing multi-disciplinary skills under one roof, make them considerably more effective than a generalized approach. The report provides a high-level audit of specialized units in 23 countries. It considers different models of domestic dedicated investigative and prosecutorial approaches and analyses their track records. Eleven case studies contrast countries with specialized units and those without. The report examines certain features that characterize specialized units, including their structure, composition, operations, and relationships with civil society and other entities. It analyzes the main challenges faced by the units including political dynamics, accessing evidence, and victim support. The report includes an overview of recent efforts by various specialized units to deliver criminal accountability for serious crimes committed in Syria. It concludes with recommendations on how to make specialized units more effective.
Topic:: International Law, Reform, Criminal Justice, Accountability, and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:: Uganda, Kenya, Africa, Europe, Middle East, Argentina, South America, Balkans, North Africa, Syria, Tunisia, Peru, and South Sudan

399. Realigning European Policy toward Palestine with Ground Realities

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Events in 2021 – particularly the Gaza war – put in sharp relief how much Europe’s policy toward the Israeli-Palestinian conflict needs a refresh. The European Union and its member states should use the levers they have to push for their stated goal of a peaceful resolution.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Regional Cooperation, European Union, Peace, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

400. Afghanistan’s Security Challenges under the Taliban

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: One year after the Taliban seized power in Afghanistan, fighting has decreased considerably. Yet serious security problems remain, not least the foreign militants still in the country. External actors should press the new authorities to fulfil their commitments and avoid any steps that could reignite large-scale violence.
Topic:: Security, Governance, Taliban, and Leadership
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Middle East

« Previous
Next »
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
…
70
71

Search

Search Constraints

Search Results

Refine your search

Topic

Political Geography

Content Type

Journal

Publishing Institution

Author

Publication Year

COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS