Political Geography: Middle East / Publication Year: within 25 Years

3801. nternational Relations Theory and a Changing Middle East

Author:: Pinar Bilgin, Sarah Bush, F. Gregory III Gausse, Zeynep N. Kaya, and Matteo Legrenzi
Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:: The story of the Arab uprisings of 2010-11 has typically been told as a series of loosely related national stories, happening simultaneously but whose successes and failures were essentially determined by internal factors. Over the last few years, political scientists have made great progress evaluating the success or failure of each country’s uprising in terms of country-specific qualities such as types of domestic institutions, the nature of opposition movements, the wise or poor decisions made by leaders and access to oil revenues. The comparative politics literature on the uprisings has demonstrated real theoretical progress, sophisticated empirical analysis and useful—if too often ignored—policy advice. This comparative politics approach to the uprisings has always been problematic, though. The Arab uprisings began in transnational diffusion and ended in transnational repression and regional proxy wars. It is remarkably difficult to accurately explain the course of events in Egypt, Yemen or Libya without reference to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar or Iran. However, with but a few notable exceptions, the academic literature on the uprisings has been dominated by comparative analysis and country case studies, with international factors included as one among several variables, if at all. This seems odd. Why has there not been an efflorescence of international relations scholarship comparable to the impressive outpouring of comparative politics scholarship on the Arab uprisings? And if there were, what would it look like? To begin rectifying this gap, the Project on Middle East Political Science teamed up with Danish scholar Morten Valbjørn of Aarhus University to bring together nearly two-dozen American, European and Arab international relations scholars in May. The result of the workshop was an astonishingly rich set of essays from a wide range of theoretical perspectives, which are now available for free download here as a special issue in the POMEPS Studies series.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Arab Spring, and Political Science
Political Geography:: Middle East and North Africa

3802. Islam and International Order

Author:: Marc Lynch, Barak Mendelsohn, Reyko Huang, Lawrence Rubin, and Elizabeth Shakman Hurd
Publication Date:: 07-2015
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:: Islam has rarely been far from the center of the world’s political and security agenda in the decade and a half since the September 11, 2001 terrorist attack against the United States. The range of issues to which Islam has been deemed central is staggering, from transnational terrorism and counterinsurgency in Iraq to the possibility of democracy in the Middle East. These long-running debates have been galvanized over the last few years by the rise of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, shocking acts of terrorism from Paris to Tunisia, and the failure of the democratic experiment with Muslim Brotherhood rule in Egypt. In April 2015 the Project on Middle East Political Science and the Transatlantic Academy hosted a workshop for a sustained discussion of emerging questions on Islam and international order. The two-day workshop brought together a broad, interdisciplinary group of scholars, including area specialists and generalists, from the fields of political science, religious studies and history. The workshop, part of the POMEPS Islam in a Changing Middle East initiative, built on the Transatlantic Academy’s 2015 theme of religion and foreign policy. Peter Katzenstein of Cornell University, in his keynote address, put the question of Islam squarely within the racial and civilizational politics of a declining American imperium. This historical and global perspective provoked a wide-ranging discussion. Islam has played many roles in many different regional and global political orders, as Cemil Aydin, Bruce Lawrence and Jonathan Brown evocatively explained. And, as Amitav Acharya forcefully argued, Islam has routinely frustrated the expectations of popular grand theories of world order. The workshop ranged widely over the question of how to think about Islam within global, regional and domestic political arenas, from a diverse range of empirical cases and theoretical literatures. Can Islam really be understood as an actor, with interests and a coherent identity? Is there something unique about Islam that prevents it from being treated theoretically like other cultural traditions such as nationalism, ethnicity or ideology? Should Islam be seen as a causal variable or as a context through which actors pursue their interests and fight their political battles? What are we doing, conceptually and politically, when we describe political thought as “Islamic political thought,” movements as “Islamic movements,” or democracy as “Islamic democracy”? The essays prepared for this workshop are available here as POMEPS Studies 15. Several key themes ran through the discussions. First, several of the memos specifically focus on the emergence of the Islamic State. Marc Lynch surveys the central analytical arguments that have been deployed to explain the Islamic State Caliphate’s development, noting the very different policy responses each might elicit. Barak Mendelsohn and Reyko Huang evaluate the Islamic State in the history of jihadist groups and insurgencies, and Lawrence Rubin argues that ideational balancing will prevent the Islamic State from becoming a normal state.
Topic:: Islam, Religion, Islamic State, Political Science, and International Order
Political Geography:: Middle East

3803. Rethinking Nation and Nationalism

Author:: Serhun Al, Senem Aslan, Lisa Blaydes, Laurie Brand, and Kristin Fabbe
Publication Date:: 06-2015
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:: You couldn’t swing a dead imperialist last summer without hitting an essay about the unraveling of the Sykes-Picot system in the Middle East. The bloody disintegration of Iraq and Syria seemed to have finally ripped apart the borders created by the British and French governments in the aftermath of World War I (even if the borders in question were actually forged at San Remo). It wasn’t just the rise of the so-called Islamic State spanning and erasing the Syrian-Iraqi border. The unprecedented, synchronized popular mobilization across borders during the early Arab uprisings of 2011 gave potent form to the ideals of transnational Arab political community supplanting the limits of nation-states. As the uprisings turned darker and most of the democratic transitions failed, new challengers to nation-states in the Middle East rose to the forefront: the Islamic State; the growing de facto independence of Kurds across Iraq and Syria, with ramifications extending into Turkey and Iran; the rise of sub-regional identities carried by heavily armed militias in failing states such as Yemen and Libya; unprecedented forced displacement moving millions of people within and across borders; and raging sectarianism dividing Sunnis and Shiites. These developments have not had a singular effect on national identities, however. While some states have collapsed, creating space for new subnational identities to challenge national cohesion, most have retrenched into a fiercer form of authoritarianism. Egypt’s military coup, for instance, has been sustained by the heavy-handed promotion of extreme nationalism. Many states in the Gulf have drawn upon sectarianism to consolidate support for their regimes in ways that could have an enduring impact on popular conceptions of national identity. Battles over the proper role of Islam in public life have reshaped political discourse from Egypt and Turkey (see Senem Aslan and Kristin Fabbe in this collection) and Tunisia (Elizabeth Young). Kurds imagine new political possibilities in very different contexts, as Nicole Watts demonstrates from Halabja and Serhun Al demonstrates through the historical experience of Turkey and Iraq.
Topic:: Nationalism, Sectarianism, Displacement, Colonialism, and Political Science
Political Geography:: Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, Syria, and Jordan

3804. Iran and the Nuclear Deal

Author:: Shervin Malekzadeh, Mohammad Ali Kadivar, Kevan Harris, Mohammad Ayatollahi Tabaar, and Farzan Sabet
Publication Date:: 04-2015
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:: The April 2 announcement in Lausanne of a framework for an agreement on the Iranian nuclear program has raised profound hopes and fears for the future of the Middle East. There are few developments with greater potential for fundamentally altering the political dynamics of the region – a prospect that fills skeptics with as much dread as it fuels optimism among supporters. To explore the many ramifications of the potential deal, the Project on Middle East Political Science convened a virtual symposium for the Monkey Cage. These essays have now been collected into an edition of the POMEPS Studies series, available for free download. The American public debate about the deal over the last month has primarily focused upon U.S. policy options and the details of the proposed agreement. The essays in this collection delve into such issues in depth: Michael Brown and Chantal de Jonge Oudraat explain why no better deal is on the table; Joshua Rovner explains why it matters that U.S. intelligence got Iran’s nuclear program right; Nick Miller and Or Rabinowitz show how the deal is in line with traditional U.S. nonproliferation policy; Steven Kull and Shibley Telhami investigate American public opinion toward a deal; Thomas Doyle explores the symbolic dimensions of the negotiations; and Austin Long argues that the deal limits Iranian options and will test Iran’s intentions in ways that even hawks should appreciate. Iran’s domestic politics have generally received less attention. The essays collected here offer an exceptionally nuanced profile of the issues and actors in play in the Iranian political system. The sheer extent and nature of the domestic debate over the deal is notable in its own right, as Mohammad Ayatollahi Tabaar explains in detail. Iranian debates have not broken down along traditional lines of moderates and hard-liners, as Shervin Malakzadeh carefully observes, but rather reflect a more fluid and fragmented factional array. Mohammad Ali Kadivar and Ali Honari trace the willingness of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani to negotiate to the legacies of the grass-roots movements that followed the contentious 2009 presidential election. As Farzan Sabet observes, Iran’s conservatives are divided internally and struggling to find the right tone amidst the new realities. Iran’s parliament, facing competitive elections, carefully tracks with the trends in public opinion. Iran’s nuclear scientists themselves represent a potentially important constituency, especially if the deal is ultimately operationalized. Meanwhile, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei seeks to hedge bets and keep a delicate balance among the factions, with an eye towards sanctions relief – which itself, as Kevan Harris argues, would intersect in complex ways with the Iranian political economy that sanctions have molded.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Political Science, and JCPOA
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

3805. Islamism in the IS Age

Author:: Jillian Schwedler, Peter Mandayille, Ahmed Khanani, Quinn Mecham, and Aaron Y. Zelin
Publication Date:: 03-2015
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:: The “IS-ification of Islamist politics,” in Khalil al-Anani’s felicitous phrase, has reshaped the ideological and strategic incentives for Islamist groups and their adversaries. It has also posed a new challenge to the categories, concepts and expectations of the academics who study them. In January, the Project on Middle East Political Science brought together more than a dozen leading scholars of Islamist movements to discuss the Islamic State and its effects on the broader terrain of Islamist politics. Some of the papers prepared for that workshop have been published on The Monkey Cage already and all are now collected into a new edition in the POMEPS Studies series “Islamism in the IS Age,” available for free download here. The challenge posed by the Islamic State can be broken down into a number of discrete areas. First, there is the effort to understand the nature of the group itself: its ideology, its organization and its likely future prospects. Second, there are questions about its relationship and impacts upon other groups, from the very similar (al-Qaeda) to the essentially different (the Muslim Brotherhood). Third, there are important analytical questions about the relative significance of ideology, institutions and strategic competition. It is useful to be precise about which of the arguments that consume the public sphere, such as how “Islamic” the organization is, really matter. The same is true of whether the analytical categories such as the “moderate/radical” divide or the distinction between Salafi-jihadists and mainstream Islamists still offer useful leverage. While its novelty and long-term significance may well be overstated, the Islamic State has indisputably reshaped the region’s strategic and intellectual agenda. Its rapid capture of territory through large swathes of Iraq and Syria and declaration of a new caliphate provoked a military response from the United States and have become the principle focus of a broad international coalition. It poses an intriguing ideational challenge to the norms of state sovereignty that underlie international society. Its penchant for broadcasting barbaric spectacles such as decapitations and burning alive of its hostages galvanized the attention of a horrified world. The Islamic State has built a seemingly robust proto-state in the territories it controls, and has seemingly established affiliates, with varying degrees of success, in areas such as Egypt’s Sinai and Libya. Its ability to attract foreign fighters and seeming appeal to certain radical trends has provoked a new round of alarm over domestic radicalization and terrorist threats. All of those effects are exacerbated by the frenzied media coverage of these developments in both the West and the Arab world.
Topic:: Sovereignty, Violent Extremism, Islamic State, Political Science, and Islamism
Political Geography:: Middle East

3806. The Arab Thermidor: The Resurgence of the Security State

Author:: Eva Bellin, Raymond Hinnebusch, Steven Heydemann, Ellis Goldberg, and Pete W. Moore
Publication Date:: 02-2015
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:: It is sometimes hard to remember that the Arab uprisings of 2010-11 promised the possibility of meaningful political change. The unprecedented outburst of popular mobilization overthrew some regimes and unsettled most of the others. Those hopes have long since come crashing down. Egypt’s transition ended in a military coup, bloody repression, and a neo-authoritarianism legitimated through xenophobic populism. Tunisia’s survived, barely. Libya, Yemen, and Syria have suffered near-complete political collapse, polarization, and civil war. Almost every regime has become more intolerant and more repressive. Violent, extremist Islamist movements such as the Islamic State group have surged in this chaotic atmosphere. How should we understand the authoritarian resurgence in the aftermath of the Arab uprisings? In October 2014, Toby Dodge and I jointly convened a POMEPS-London School of Economics workshop to dig more deeply into the causes, mechanisms, and drivers of what he called “The Arab Thermidor.” More than a dozen scholars looked deeply at specific sectors such as the military, police and intelligence services, different countries, and the broader regional environment. Some of the papers produced for that workshop have been published on the Monkey Cage, and all of them have today been released as POMEPS Studies 11 The Arab Thermidor: The Resurgence of the Security State, available as a free downloadable PDF. The papers in this collection offer a sharp, comprehensive, and acute look at the resurgence and persistence of the Arab authoritarian state.
Topic:: Security, Authoritarianism, Arab Spring, and Political Science
Political Geography:: Middle East and North Africa

3807. Can the Law Help? Debating Security Council Inaction on Syria

Author:: Katja Creutz
Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The inaction of the UN Security Council with respect to the Syrian crisis has generated widespread aversion. Decision-makers and international humanitarian organizations have debated the particular aspects in which the Council has failed to take measures, such as the widespread abuses that civilians are suffering in the war and the prevailing impunity of the violators. International legal scholars have, however, debated whether the Security Council could be legally obliged to act in respect of a mass atrocity crisis. This represents a novel departure from the established idea that the Security Council has the right to act. Although this emerging position is controversial, it shows that the argumentation in connection to Security Council inaction is toughening up through increased resort to hard law. Many, but not all, of the advocates for imposing a duty to act on the Security Council refer to the Responsibility to Protect norm. But the exact measures that fall under the scope of the duty to act remain unclear and context-bound: there can be no specific elaboration of what the Security Council must do. The most concrete discussion has related to the limitation of the veto use of the five permanent members. Yet, the international debate does not shy away from discussing the legal consequences of Security Council inaction for the organ itself, or its member states. Until now, few scholars have sought to analyse if resort to law really can be beneficial to the overall goal of making the Security Council react to mass atrocity situations. This analysis therefore strives to discuss the elements of the debate and to answer the question ‘Can the law help?’ in remedying inaction. It will be posited that the law is no panacea when it comes to resolving when or by what means the Security Council should react when it comes to atrocity crimes. Its main value lies in building a decision-making environment in the Security Council which is open, explanatory and dialogue-based.
Topic:: International Law, United Nations, Syrian War, and UN Security Council
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

3808. Fragile States Index 2015 – Annual Report

Author:: J. J. Messner, Nate Haken, Patricia Taft, Kendall Lawrence, Felipe Umana, Sebastian Pavlou, and Hannah Blyth
Publication Date:: 06-2015
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Fund for Peace
Abstract:: The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Fragile States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.
Topic:: Reform, Ebola, Democracy, Fragile States, Domestic Politics, Sustainability, Health Crisis, Instability, and Uprising
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, Iran, Ukraine, Middle East, Finland, Eastern Europe, Greece, Libya, Cuba, North Africa, Lebanon, West Africa, Nigeria, Central African Republic, Global Focus, and United States of America

3809. The Rising Gulf. The New Ambitions of the Gulf Monarchies

Author:: Valeria Talbot
Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: Over the last years the Gulf monarchies have emerged as assertive players both in the MENA region and in the global context. Relying on their huge energy reserves and financial assets, these states acquired increasing international leverage. On the one hand, the oil monarchies moved eastwards exploiting the opportunity provided by emerging Asian markets to diversify their energy relations and economic interests. On the other, in the wake of the Arab uprisings they adopted a more proactive approach that dramatically altered their influence in the region. Nonetheless, Gulf activism comes at a time when the monarchies are facing important internal and external challenges. In this complex puzzle, the report aims to assess to what extent the rising Gulf monarchies are able to play as key actors both at the regional and the international levels. Are these monarchies adopting sustainable domestic policies in the long-term? How have they extended their influence in the MENA region? How are they reshaping their international relations? How do they act in the world energy market? What are the implications of the Gulf’s new assertiveness for the EU?
Topic:: International Relations, Economy, Monarchy, Energy, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East and Gulf Nations

3810. Iran After the Deal: The Road Ahead

Author:: Paola Magri and Annalisa Perteghella
Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: The agreement reached in Vienna on 14 July, 2015 between Iran and the P5+1 (United States, Russia, China, France, United Kingdom, Germany) has been greeted as an historical achievement. While offering a long-lasting negotiated solution to one of the biggest crises of the last decade, the deal represents an opportunity for a deep recalibration of the balance of power in the Middle East. It also paves the way to some sort of rapprochement between Iran and the United States. But the deal is also likely to have an impact on Iranian domestic politics, not least on its economy, which, after repeated rounds of sanctions, languishes in deep crisis. This report aims to assess the potential effects of the deal by trying to answer the following question: what’s next for Iran, the Middle East and the countries involved in the negotiations? In particular, the report provides an assessment of the JCPOA agreed upon in Vienna. It also analyzes the impact of the deal on Iranian domestic politics as well as the consequences for its economy. In addition, it examines its effects on the balance of power in the Middle East, as well as on relations between Iran and the United States, and Iran and Russia. Finally a number of policy recommendations for the EU are provided.
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements, Sanctions, European Union, Economy, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

3811. The Return of Egypt. Internal Challenges and Regional Game

Author:: Stefano Maria Torelli
Publication Date:: 07-2015
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: Egypt has reappeared again as a leading actor in the Middle East. After the fall of Mubarak, the rise to power of the Muslim Brotherhood and its ouster, the country has chosen its new ‘strongman’. Following the elections of al-Sisi, Egypt is back to pursuing a pro-active policy not only internally, but also in the neighbourhood. The restoration of the strategic axis with Saudi Arabia and the struggle against radical Islam are the two pillars of this new political phase. However, there are critical elements, too, from further deterioration of the political and civil liberties indexes, to the emergence of jihadist groups in the Sinai, to the enduring economic and financial difficulties. As a result of these changes, Europe and Italy should calibrate a new policy aimed at safeguarding their interests,especially from the points of view of security, stability and the fight against terrorism, also promoting more inclusive practices by the Cairo government vis-à-vis the opposition (including the Muslim Brotherhood) and developing policies which can help Egypt to respond to future challenges in terms of economic growth, poverty alleviation, demographic pressure and the creation of employment opportunities.
Topic:: Demographics, Poverty, Economic Growth, Domestic Politics, Islamism, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East and Egypt

3812. Khattab (Jihadi Bios Project)

Author:: Muhammad Al-'Ubaydi
Publication Date:: 03-2015
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: This report on Khattab, authored by Muhammad al-`Ubaydi, was released as part of the CTC’s Jihadi Bios Project, a series edited by Dr. Nelly Lahoud. The Jihadi Bios Project The CTC is pleased to launch the publication of papers as part of a series devoted to the study of jihadist biographies. The purpose of this project is to contribute to the knowledge of the evolution of the jihadist landscape by exploring it through the lens of the worldviews and experiences of actors who have shaped it. While some states and organizations, wittingly or unwittingly, contributed to the growth of the jihadist enterprise, it may be argued that modern jihadism, as it continues to unfold, is also the product of individuals, who made it into the global phenomenon that it is. As we study the biographies of jihadis, we are faced with a world crowded with different and differing worldviews. Beneath the banner of jihad that seemingly unites jihadis worldwide is a world marked not just by cooperation between groups and individuals, but also by competition and divisions. Some of the jihadis who occupy that world are characterized by a commitment to idealistic goals, by acumen, skills, and agility; others are driven by sectarianism, criminal disposition, and opportunism; while others manifest an odd combination of all. That is why the actions emanating from the jihadist landscape are the results of an amalgam of strategy, sophisticated planning and targeting, randomness, and juvenile enthusiasm. It is for these reasons and more that the complexity of the jihadist landscape requires different layers of analyses and a rigorous and patient approach to the subject. In short, the study of jihadism is about both the “forest” and the “trees;” and this series of biographies is a study of the “trees” as they are situated in the broader “forest.”
Topic:: Terrorism, History, and Jihad
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Middle East, and Saudi Arabia

3813. Countering Foreign Terrorist Fighter (FTF) Recruitment Workshop: Counter-Messaging and the Role of Disillusioned Former Fighters

Author:: Hedayah
Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hedayah
Abstract:: Foreign terrorist fighters (FTFs) returning to their home countries from the conflict stimulated by the self-proclaimed “Islamic State” or ad-Dawlah al-Islamiyah fil-Iraq wa asSham (DA’ESH) abroad, are a growing concern for many countries—particularly those in the international counter-DA’ESH coalition. Past conferences and workshops have focused on issues related to FTF rehabilitation and reintegration back into society, but the need for effective counter-narrative communication strategies to prevent the spread of violent extremism and terrorism is now more relevant than ever. The use of interviews, testimonials, and statements of once-inspired FTFs, who now denounce the actions of DA’ESH and other terrorist groups, can be potentially powerful in countering DA’ESH recruitment. This three-day countering violent extremism (CVE) workshop—hosted by Hedayah, the Abu Dhabi-based international CVE center of excellence—convened government and nongovernment CVE practitioners to share communication approaches relevant to countering FTF radicalization and recruitment into DA’ESH, with a particular focus on the role of disillusioned FTFs in creating counter narratives/ messages. Over the course of the three days, participants were asked to apply knowledge gained from the panel sessions to create and develop the content and structure of an alternative or counter-narrative/message that involves actual case studies of individuals who have traveled to join DA’ESH.
Topic:: Terrorism, Recruitment, Foreign Fighters, and Political Extremism
Political Geography:: Middle East and Global Focus

3814. Power Struggle in the Gulf: A Re-evaluation of the IranIraq War

Author:: Ferhat Pirinçci
Publication Date:: 04-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Academic Inquiries
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: This article aims to analyze the power struggle in the Persian Gulf towards the end of the Cold War from a different perspective. The withdrawal of Britain from the region created a power vacuum and this caused a regional leadership struggle between countries such as Iraq, Iran and Saudi Arabia. Facing historical problems between each other, the Iran-Iraq rivalry came into prominence with this struggle. The fray between the two countries also caused the Iran-Iraq War of 1980-1988. This study argues that the Iran-Iraq War is a result of the Persian Gulf struggle and examines the armament activities of the parties concerned, the support they received and to which extend this support played a role in the conduct of the war. In this respect, the Iran-Iraq War concluded as a war of attrition without winners, caused the two countries to become a matter of secondary importance in the regional competition.
Topic:: History, Conflict, and Iran-Iraq War
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, Middle East, and Persian Gulf

3815. What the Women Say: Resisting the New Conservatism: Women’s campaigns for rights, peace and participation in Turkey

Author:: International Civil Society Action Network (ICAN)
Publication Date:: 12-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Civil Society Action Network (ICAN)
Abstract:: For nearly a century, Turkey has been a model of a modern secular Islamic nation. As a member of the G-20 and NATO, a candidate for the European Union, and boasting the world’s 16th largest economy, Turkey’s influence in regional and international security and economics has steadily grown. Yet modern Turkey is at risk from a rising conservatism, willing to trade economic growth for human rights advances. This brief examines the current challenges of women’s and civil society groups in Turkey, highlighting effective initiatives and advocacy strategies. Turkey offers significant lessons for other countries similarly struggling to maintain the momentum of democratic reform in the context of growing conservatism. The stakes are higher than ever for international actors, Turkish civil society, and women’s rights groups to strategize and work together effectively.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Civil Society, Economics, Women, Peace, and Political Participation
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

3816. Daesh Hype about Stealing Nuclear Weapons

Author:: David Albright and Sarah Burkhard
Publication Date:: 10-2015
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:: With Daesh1 entrenched in Syria and Iraq and growing in influence in North Africa and Pakistan, the risk is likely to grow that the terrorist group or one of its allies will seek nuclear weapons. Or at least this is what they want the world to think since their publications imply these intentions. But Daesh’s public claims of ways to accomplish that goal are unfounded and mainly seem intended to simply incite fear. At ISIS, we assess that the risk of Daesh acquiring nuclear weapons is low. However, that characterization needs to be carefully considered. The chance of Daesh acquiring a nuclear weapon, either through theft of a functioning nuclear weapon, or of nuclear explosive material followed by the manufacturing of a crude nuclear explosive, is assessed as low, similar to the risk of a major nuclear reactor accident, such as the Chernobyl and Fukishima disasters. However, although the chance of Daesh stealing a nuclear weapon is low, the consequences would be horrible and extraordinary efforts need to be waged to ensure that the risk becomes even lower. A nuclear explosive going off in a major city would have catastrophic consequences, probably far worse than those of Chernobyl or Fukishima.
Topic:: Security, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and Islamic State
Political Geography:: Middle East

3817. Tehran Calling: Understanding a New Iranian Leadership

Author:: Cornelius Adebahr
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: After years of tension, sanctions, and deadlocked negotiations, Hassan Rouhani, Iran's relatively moderate new president, has provided an opening for improved relations between the Islamic Republic and the West. While Rouhani has not ushered in a new Iran, Tehran has adopted a more conciliatory tone on its nuclear program since he took office. This shift is more than just talk, but the West will have to carefully calibrate its response to determine whether Rouhani's changed rhetoric signals the beginning of a new direction for Iran.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Islam, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, and Middle East

3818. 'Time of Troubles': Arnold J Toynbee's twentieth century

Author:: Ian Hall
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Institution:: Chatham House
Abstract:: Arnold J. Toynbee (1889–1975) was synonymous with the Royal Institute of International Affairs for the first half of its history. He held the post of Director of Studies from 1925 to 1954, and thereafter retained an office in Chatham House until his death. Throughout that half-century he combined the roles of scholar and public intellectual, using International Affairs—along with many other outlets—to communicate the fruits and findings of his research to policy-makers and the wider community. During his 50 years at Chatham House Toynbee contributed 19 essays to the journal—which must surely be the most of any individual author—and produced his two monumental multi-volume works, the Survey of international affairs, which he penned, edited or commissioned from 1925 until 1958, and A study of history, which appeared in twelve volumes between 1934 and 1961. He also published a further 50 books and hundreds of scholarly articles during his lifetime, as well as many interviews and lesser pieces. If one includes reviews of books by others, Toynbee's complete works amount to almost 3,000 items.
Topic:: History
Political Geography:: Britain and Middle East

3819. Examining China’s Assertiveness through the Eyes of Chinese IR Scholars

Author:: Huiyun Feng and Kai He
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: Since the 2008 global financial crisis, China‟s diplomacy has moved towards a more confident or even assertive direction in international politics. Economically, the Chinese Premier refused to re-value the Chinese currency as the United States requested and instead started to lecture about U.S. economic mismanagement during the 2008 financial meltdown (Pomfret, 2010). Diplomatically, China responded furiously to Obama‟s decision of arms sales to Taiwan and meeting the Dalai Lama in early 2010, threatening to place sanctions on American companies. Politically, China reluctantly cooperated with Western countries, especially the United States, to punish either North Korean or Iranian provocations to the international order. Many other examples, from the Copenhagen Conference to the diplomatic standoffs between China and its neighbours, have also been listed as indications of China‟s assertive behaviour since 2008 (Swaine, 2010, 2011; Swaine and Fravel 2011; Perlez 2012; Ross 2012; He and Feng 2012). In particular, the 2012 Scarborough Shoal crisis with the Philippines, the still on-going flare-ups with Japan on the Senkaku/Diaoyu disputes, and the recently intensified tension with Vietnam in the South China Sea seemingly have further intensified regional concerns over China‟s rise. It is worth noting that some scholars have started to question the validity of the discourse regarding China‟s assertiveness in diplomacy. For example, through critically examining the “assertiveness” meme in the U.S. pundit and academic circles, Johnston questions: “How new and assertive is China‟s new assertiveness?” (Johnston, 2013). Although the extent and the nature of the assertiveness are still debatable, it is clear that China‟s foreign policy has shifted to a new direction, albeit temporarily. The goal of this paper is not to debate the temporal origins or intensity of China‟s assertiveness. Instead, it focuses on examining the perceptual roots of China‟s policy changes. As David Shambaugh (1991) points out, behaviour is principally a function of perception. In order to make sense of Chinese behaviour, we need to dig into the mindset of Chinese leaders. However, it is difficult to gauge what political leaders really perceive due to the political hierarchy and the complex nature of the decision-making process in any state system, especially China. In this research we examine Chinese leaders‟ perceptions and attitudes regarding Chinese foreign policy through the eyes of China‟s International Relations (IR) scholars. We use Chinese IR scholars as a “proxy measure” to make sense of Chinese leaders‟ perceptions because Chinese IR scholars serve as the mediator between the Chinese leadership and the general public (Shambaugh, 1991; Saunders, 2000). Based on an original opinion survey of Chinese IR scholars at the annual conference of the Chinese Community of Political Science and International Studies (CCPSIS) in Beijing in July 2013, we empirically test the perceptual roots of Chinese scholars‟ preference for an assertive diplomacy. In particular, we examine two competing arguments about China‟s assertiveness. Some scholars suggest a “power perception” argument in which China‟s assertiveness is rooted in Chinese leaders‟ changing perceptions regarding its power status versus the United States. In other words, as the 1 United States and other Western countries were troubled by their economic downturn, Chinese leaders became overly confident with China‟s rise and thereby started to say “no” to the United States as well as show its “teeth” to its neighbours (Nye, 2010; Green, 2010). Others advocate a “policy reaction” argument, which attributes China‟s assertiveness to a nationalist reaction to unfriendly international forces, especially from the West, which threatened to block China‟s rise. Continuous economic growth also instigated the rise of nationalism in Chinese society, which in turn pushed the Chinese government to react to Western criticisms and “plots” with more fury and toughness (Carr, 2010; Small, 2010; Swaine, 2011; Ross, 2012). In other words, China‟s assertiveness in diplomacy grew from an intentional reaction to the strategic pressure from the United States and the outside world. There are three parts in the paper. First, we briefly introduce our original survey conducted in the summer of 2013. Second, we develop two hypotheses based on the current debate about China‟s assertive diplomacy and test them by using the structural equation modeling (SEM) technique. We suggest that both the “power perception” and “policy reaction” arguments make sense in explaining China‟s assertiveness in diplomacy. However, our findings suggest that a more pessimistic perception regarding Chinese power is more likely to be associated with a preference for an assertive foreign policy. In other words, it is not a confident or an overly confident China but a lack of confidence instead, which is more likely to trigger an assertive foreign policy in China. In the conclusion section we discuss the implications of our findings for China‟s future international relations
Topic:: Diplomacy, Imperialism, International Cooperation, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: United States, China, Iran, Middle East, Asia, and North Korea

3820. ¿Una estrategia coherente para una región en cambio? La política exterior de la administración Obama y la Primavera Árabe

Author:: Juan Tovar Ruiz
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: La política exterior de la Administración Obama se vio claramente marcada por los procesos de cambios producidos en el Próximo Oriente como consecuencia de la denominada Primavera Árabe. A la discusión previa existente sobre la existencia o no de una doctrina Obama se ha añadido el debate sobre cual puede ser su estrategia hacia una región que se ha convertido en el principal campo de batalla de los grupos ideológicos de la política exterior estadounidense: realistas, neoconservadores y liberales intervencionistas. La necesidad de equilibrar los intereses estratégicos y de seguridad estadounidenses con la promoción de valores como la democracia y los derechos humanos parece haber dado paso a un regreso a una estrategia realista, de intervención limitada, fundamentada en intereses estratégicos clave y en soluciones diferenciadas para diferentes contextos. La situación actual en escenarios como Siria o Irak, con todo, marcan importantes incertidumbres que deberán ser afrontadas a corto plazo.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Democracy, Arab Spring, Ideology, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Middle East and United States of America

3821. The US and Turkey in Search of Regional Strategy: Towards Asymptomatic Trajectories

Author:: Kostas Ifantis and Ionannis Galariotis
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: Security relations with the US have been critical for Turkey. Cold War strategic imperatives dictated typical bandwagoning policies, although disagreements and frictions were present at times. In the 2000s, a combination of domestic developments and rapidly changing regional security patterns has resulted in a more assertive Turkish regional security policy, which for many represents a departure from traditional Kemalist principles. This article attempts to assess the current course of Turkish regional security engagement and the extent to which relations between the USA and Turkey are subject to major change. The analytical context accounts for the impact of domestic, regional and global levels. The empirical focus is on Turkey’s involvement in the Syrian sectarian conflict and on the trajectory of the bilateral relations with Israel.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Syria, United States of America, and Mediterranean

3822. Injecting the Iranian Factor in US-Turkish Relations: A New Player in Town

Author:: Sotiris Serbos
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: The article attempts to bring forward a framework analysis which elaborates on America’s shifting foreign and defence policy priorities from the Middle East region to the Asia-Pacific. Pulling of resources for sustaining a US rebalancing strategy to Asia is inextricably linked to successfully coordinate a set of alliances in a far from straightforward regional security environment. In an effort to achieve a functional balance of power in the Greater Middle East, Washington’s game-changing for managing regional rivalries and the spillover effects of the Syrian civil war, indicate a necessity for reassessing Middle East’s security system by approaching two non-Arab Muslim countries; Shiite Iran and Sunni Turkey. To avoid Iraq’s disintegration and above all to preserve a regional balance of power, America’s strategy involves engaging Iran in a constructive process of rapprochement with the US, while empowering Turkey to counterbalance its growing leverage in the region.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Power Politics, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, and Asia-Pacific

3823. European Narratives on the "Arab Spring" – From Democracy to Security

Author:: Peter Seeberg and Musa Shteiwi
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic Studies (CSS)
Abstract:: Peter Seeberg & Musa Shteiwi wrote an article on the "European Narratives on the "Arab Spring" – From Democracy to Security". The article discusses the EU’s reaction to the developments in the MENA-region in the period 2011-14. Initially relatively optimistic metaphors like ‘the Arab Spring’ or ‘the Democratic Tsunami’ were part of the media-comments from Western leaders, but three years. later the situation in the region seems to have changed significantly and consequently the narrative in the EU has switched from a predominantly pro-‘Arab Spring’ discourse to a focus on security aspects in a broad sense and, especially concerning the situation in Syria (to some degree also Lebanon and Libya), a focus on counter-terrorism. The article are concluding remarks by Peter Seeberg and Musa Shteiwi from a workshop on EU-Middle Eastern relations held at the Center for Strategic Studies in Amman in May 2013. Dr. Musa Shteiwi is the director of the Center for Strategic Studies, University of Jordan. Peter Seeberg is the director of the Center for Contemporary Middle East Studies in the University of Southern Denmark.
Topic:: Security, European Union, Counter-terrorism, Democracy, and Arab Spring
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Libya, North Africa, Lebanon, Syria, and Jordan

3824. A Decade of AKP Power in Turkey: Towards a Reconfiguration of Modes of Government? (Une décennie de pouvoir AKP en Turquie : vers une reconfiguration des modes de gouvernement ?)

Author:: Elise Massicard
Publication Date:: 07-2014
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:: The Justice and Development Party (JDP) has been in power in Turkey since 2002, consolidating its electoral support among an array of social groups ranging from broad appeal among the popular classes to business leaders and a growing middle class. The success of the JDP is a consequence of the manner in which the party inserted itself into certain economic and social sectors. While the party has internalized the principles of reducing the public sphere and outsourcing to the private sector, it has not restricted the reach of government intervention. On the contrary, it has become increasingly involved in certain sectors, including social policy and housing. It has managed this through an indirect approach that relies on intermediaries and private allies such as the businesses and associations that is has encouraged. In this way, the JDP has developed and systematized modes of redistribution that involve the participation of conservative businessmen who benefit from their proximity to the decision-makers, charitable organizations, and underprivileged social groups. These public policies have reconfigured different social sectors in a way that has strengthened the Party’s influence.
Topic:: Civil Society, Sociology, Governance, Regulation, Political Science, and Networks
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Asia, and Balkans

3825. Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy: Spring 2014

Author:: Colin Eide, Averell Schmidt, Ibrahim Sharqieh, Matthew Levitt, Denise Natali, Gina A. Zurlo, Todd M. Johnson, Karina Piser, John Strickland, Sarath Ganji, and Nada Zohdy
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: We are pleased to present the third edition of the Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Pol icy. This volume is being published at a time of rapid transformation in the Middle East and North Africa. The euphoric uprisings of 2011 have met with fierce resistance from resilient autocrats and the complex realities of reshuffled domestic politics. With corruption scandals threatening the long-venerated Turkish model, an Egyptian military reasserting itself in political life, and heated tribal disputes compromising an already fragile Libyan state, which way the region is headed remains altogether unclear. These volatile domestic transformations coincide with regional diplomatic realignments. Nuclear diplomacy between Iran and the West has complicated the relationship between Washington and its traditional allies in Israel and the Gulf. The Obama administration’s hesitance to intervene militarily in Syria has at times further strained these ties. Meanwhile, the unprecedented diffusion of Syrian refugees risks destabilizing neighboring states and igniting a region-wide conflagration. This year’s Journal sheds light on many of the dynamics underlying what we see as a larger regional transformation. Ibrahim Sharqieh opens the Journal with a commentary on the often overlooked plight of Palestinian “double refugees”—those first displaced by conflict with Israel, displaced again by conflict in Syria. Matthew Levitt provides our first feature article investigating the evolving strategic relationship between Hezbollah and Iran. Denise Natali analyzes the dynamics—new and old—of transborder Kurdish politics. Todd M. Johnson and Gina A. Zurlo focus our attention on demographic trends behind the flight of the region’s Christian communities. Karina Piser helps dispel the popular narrative of religion as the sole driver of Islamist political parties in Tunisia, focusing us instead on their internal debates and political acumen. John Strickland points us to an economic transformation with global consequences taking place in the region’s skies: the growth of Gulf airlines. Lastly, spanning the politics of the Palestinian Authority, the political economy of oil and gas, and the underpinnings of the region’s grassroots political movements, this year’s staff interviews offer fresh perspectives on pressing issues.
Topic:: Islam, Migration, Peace Studies, History, Social Movement, Partnerships, Arab Spring, Protests, Christianity, Hezbollah, and Kurds
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Palestine, Arab Countries, Syria, Jordan, Tunisia, and Gulf Nations

3826. Managing a Transnational Insurgency: The Islamic State of Iraqʹs “Paper Trail,” 2005‐2010

Author:: Jon Wallace, Jacob N. Shapiro, Pat Ryan, and Danielle F. Jung
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
Abstract:: A cornerstone of strategic thinking is a clear understanding of one’s opponent. Developing such an understanding in dealing with the Islamic State (IS) is challenging. Constraints on access to the frontlines in Iraq and Syria make it unusually hard for researchers to ground assessments in evidence‐based approaches. This occasional paper contributes to the development of an empirically grounded understanding of the IS by analyzing the finances and management of the group’s predecessor, the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI), which changed its name to the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) in April 2013 and then the Islamic State in June 2014. There is a direct line of descent from Al‐Qa’ida in Iraq (AQI) through the Islamic State of Iraq to today’s Islamic State, despite changes in the group’s territorial holdings and the announced scale of its ambitions. Using historical documents to understand how AQI and the ISI were run can therefore help us better understand the current incarnation of the group, as well as the strengths and weaknesses it may have inherited.
Topic:: Terrorism, Counterinsurgency, Violent Extremism, Counter-terrorism, Islamic State, and War on Terror
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Syria

3827. Politics in Troubled Times: Israel-Turkey Relations

Author:: Aybars Görgülü, Mensur Akgün, and Sabiha Senyücel Gündoğar
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: Setting out with the premise that the current situation of Israel-Turkey relations is detrimental to all parties in the region, TESEV Foreign Policy Program conducted a series of studies in order to dwell upon alternative areas of cooperation and discuss the current state of relations. To this end, two roundtable meetings were organized: the first one was held on 2 October 2013 in Istanbul and the second was organized in Jerusalem on 22 December 2013. A trip to Israel was organized between 6 and 8 July 2014 to complement these roundtables, during which a significant number of meetings were held with authorities form the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Israel, as well as journalists and various experts. This report touches upon the historical background of Israel-Turkey relations and the potential areas for Turkish-Israeli cooperation.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, History, Bilateral Relations, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

3828. Reflections on Turkey: Islamic Middle Classes at a Glance

Author:: Etyen Mahçupyan
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: This report focuses on the rising prosperity of the Islamic middle class since 2002 and the diversification of the religiosity concept within a pluralist structure in Turkey. Written by TESEV consultant Etyen Mahcupyan in February 2014, this report explains the importance of the rising middle class and the new generation of Anatolian entrepreneurs for the political and sociological transformation of Turkey. The findings of the surveys and focus groups are evaluated under four categories: 1) Political Institutions and Rights, 2) Family, Women, Sexuality, 3) Group Affiliations, Individualism, Tolerance, 4) Openions about Market Economy, Class Differences and Western World.
Topic:: Islam, Religion, Women, Economy, Political structure, Class, Family, and Sexuality
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

3829. Anti-Corruption Reloaded: Turkey Executive Summary

Author:: SELDI and Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: Being the result of collaboration within SELDI, this report is innovative in both its method and its process. It is the result of the application of a system developed by SELDI in the early 2000s for the assessment of both corruption and anticorruption, tailored to the social and institutional environment of Southeast Europe. This executive summary reviews Turkey’s findings and provides a number of recommendations to achieve further progress in limiting corruption. Güneydoğu Avrupa’daki yolsuzluk sorunu, üzerine sıkça haber yapılan, toplumsal tartışmaların odağında yer etmiş olan, hem ulusal hem de uluslararası kurumların sürekli ve uzun süredir siyasa gündeminde bulunan, sorunsallığı kanıksanmış bir meseledir. Yolsuzluğun bu kadar yaygın ve kolay kontrol edilemeyen bir sorun olmasından dolayı, meseleyi anlamaya ve dolayısı ile de azaltmaya yönelik yenilikçi yaklaşımlara gerek duyulmaktadır. Avrupa Birliği’ne katılım beklentisi, bölge ülkelerinin harekete geçmesi için gereken hukuki çerçeveyi sağlıyor olsa da, yolsuzlukla mücadelede sürdürülebilir bir gelişimin sağlanmasında yerel siyasetteki menfaat sahiplerinin ve özellikle de sivil toplumun oynayacağı rol öne çıkmaktadır. Kalkınma ve Entegrasyon için Güneydoğu Avrupa Liderliği (SELDI) ağı, bilgi temelli yolsuzlukla mücadele amacı kapsamında, yolsuzluk ile bölgedeki yönetimsel eksiklikleri tanımlama ve anlamaya yönelik araştırmalara öncelik vermiştir. Elinizdeki bu SELDI raporu, Bölgesel Yolsuzluk ile Mücadele Girişimi tarafından yürütülen SEE (Güneydoğu Avrupa) 2020 Stratejisi Yönetim Prensibi ile örneklenen bölgesel yolsuzluk ile mücadele siyasetinin kalkınma ve uygulama konusu çerçevesinde hazırlanmıştır.
Topic:: Corruption, Accountability, and Transparency
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Eastern Europe

3830. Assessment on Changes regarding the Specially Empowered Judicial System in Turkey

Author:: Hande Özhabeş
Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: A number of amendments for criminal law have been instituted in Turkey in recent years within the framework of the judicial reform process that especially were geared towards the realization of the fair trial principle. Between 2011 and 2013, four groups of legal amendments named “Judicial Reform Packages” were passed. These brought about important improvements regarding fair trial, freedom of speech, personal liberty and security. The TESEV Democratization Program published a report evaluating the effect of these four judicial reform packages on rights and freedoms in September 2013. This brief report provides an evaluation of the amendment package instituted in March 2014 that included important changes vis-a-vis the specially empowered judicial system.
Topic:: Democratization, Law, Reform, Criminal Justice, and Justice
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

3831. Energy-hungry Turkey

Author:: Olgu Okumus
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: Olgu Okumuş, a PhD candidate at SciencePo, deliberates on the issue of energy in Turkey due to Turkey’s aim of meeting its growing energy demand and being an energy transit hub. Okumuş discusses the advantages that the energy liberalization policies such as privatization and diversification of resources will bring to the country’s economy. In addition, she talks about the two main challenges of lowering energy pricing and carbon emission and put forth solutions for overcoming these challenges.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Privatization, Natural Resources, Governance, Economy, and Trade Liberalization
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

3832. Management of Irregular Migration in the Context of EU-Turkey Relations

Author:: Fulya Memişoğlu
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: Turkey, at the crossroads of Europe, Middle East and Asia, has confronted with the mounting pressure of mixed migration flows in recent decades. Among these, management of irregular migration flows is an issue of particular concern due to the complex interplay between its security, humanitarian and economic dimensions. In broad terms, irregular migration is the movement that takes place outside of the regulatory norms of the sending, transit and receiving countries. Because irregular migrants do not have the necessary authorization to enter, reside or work; the destination country treats their status as illegal. Triandafyllidou clarifies the distinction between illegality and irregularity by defining irregular migrant as ‘a migrant who at some point in his migration contravened the rules of entry or residence’ whereas illegal migration is ‘the act of entering in violation to national law and is confined to illegal border crossing (but not overstaying the terms of visas or residence) referring only a flow and not to stock of persons’.
Topic:: Human Rights, Migration, Bilateral Relations, and European Union
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

3833. TESEV’s Suggestion: Anti-Corruption Legislation and International Acquis

Author:: R. Bülent Tarhan
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: This comprehensive work has been prepared by Prime Minister’s Chief Inspector Bülent Tarhan and contains all related UN and OECD documents, government of Republic of Turkey’s fight against corruption action plans, decision and circulars of the prime ministry, national programme of Turkey related with undertaking of the EU Legal Acquis related provisions of the Turkish law, EU Progress reports, GRECO Turkey Reports, all anti-corruption laws and GNAT Corruption Investigation Commission Report as well as Mr.Tarhan’s article ‘Institutional Foundation of Anti-corruption’. Published by TEPAV (The Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey) this work is an extensive source of information to anyone who has been interested in this subject matter. In order to navigate easily in this 1040 page long document, you can click on the titles and sub-titles in the summary of contents. This work has only been published in Turkish.
Topic:: Corruption, Law, European Union, Courts, Accountability, Transparency, and Justice
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

3834. The Perception of Turkey in the Middle East 2013 (English/Arabic)

Author:: Mensur Akgün and Sabiha Senyücel Gündoğar
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: The report entails the findings of the fifth annual survey conducted by TESEV Foreign Policy Programme in collaboration with KA Research between August 15- September 13, 2013. As in previous years, the public opinion survey reveals interesting insights into the recent Middle Eastern viewpoints, perceptions and expectations. 2800 Respondents from 16 countries (Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, Yemen, Libya, Bahrain, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Oman, Iraq and Iran) of the region reflect on Turkey’s role and regional challenges in the light of current happenings.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, Regional Cooperation, and Public Opinion
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Kuwait, Libya, Yemen, Palestine, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Syria, Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain, Qatar, Tunisia, Oman, and United Arab Emirates

3835. Yemen's National Dialogue

Author:: Charles Schmitz
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Facing popular protests, a secessionist movement in the south, a spiraling security crisis, and a deep fracturing of political factions, Yemen’s political elite acceded to the Gulf initiative in 2011, which established a caretaker transitional government. The agreement signed in Riyadh stipulated a two-year transitional period and created a National Dialogue Conference (NDC) as a forum to solve the country’s political problems. The results of the National Dialogue will form the basis for a new constitution, and Yemenis will then elect a new government to conclude the transitional period. The National Dialogue has concluded, but it is not clear whether it can really solve Yemen’s political problems. The two-year transitional period ended without a new constitution or elections—these will be held at some undetermined later date—and facts on the ground may be outpacing the deliberations of the political elite and their international backers. The government cannot prevent attacks on its oil pipelines or electrical grid; al-Qa`ida operates with almost impunity in the capital city Sana; the Houthi movement is expanding its area of control, recently taking the symbolically important towns of Huth in Amran and Dammaj in Sa`ada; and the south remains unsettled and far from accepting of any solutions proposed by the Sana elite. In February 2014 the committee created to “resolve” the issue of southern rebellion decided on a federal system of government composed of six regions. Yet most Yemenis do not know what federalism is, and what’s more, they don’t care. Deteriorating security and the rise of poverty have overwhelmed any interest most citizens might have in the details of the elite’s visions for the future of the country. Both Saudi Arabia and the United States, the most important foreign actors in Yemen and backers of the Gulf initiative, are focused on their own regional interests, sometimes to the detriment of Yemeni interests. The Saudis want to maintain their influence on the Yemeni government, fight Iranian influence, and control threats from Yemeni soil spilling over into Saudi Arabia. However, the Saudis recently expelled from the Kingdom hundreds of thousands of Yemeni workers, exacerbating Yemen’s desperate economic situation. The United States is focused on al-Qa`ida and Iran. The American drone campaign continues to wreak havoc, recently killing members of a wedding party in spite of President Obama’s new procedures to bring the targeted assassinations under the color of law, and the United States seems unable to relinquish its misperception that the Houthis in Sa`ada constitute a new Hezbollah. With such deep divisions in Yemen’s political body and in the competing regional agendas of Yemen’s foreign backers, Yemen’s prospects for a peaceful political settlement that will allow the country to stabilize and grow seem dim.
Topic:: Security, Politics, Conflict, and Negotiation
Political Geography:: Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

3836. Drones for Peace

Author:: Michael P. Kreuzer
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:: Remotely Piloted Aircraft (RPAs), commonly referred to as “drones,” have been the subject of much discussion surrounding potential operations in Syria, primarily in the context of enforcing a “no-fly” zone or enforcement role similar to their role in Libya and modeled after operations in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Yemen. This LISD White Paper examines the prospects of the use of RPAs in Syria and possible future humanitarian crises. In conflict zones, deploying RPAs as currently operated would likely be counterproductive to political aims in an enforcement capacity. Smaller RPAs, however, operating in a number of tactical and other roles, could play a critical role in ameliorating humanitarian crises—for instance in Syria, Iraq, and elsewhere. Tasks may include monitoring key sites designated by the international community and allowed by the host country government, to providing humanitarian aid, to the over-watch of convoy movements and possible general surveillance functions. The stigma of RPAs given their use in other conflicts and elsewhere must be overcome to allow RPAs to be evaluated and used as an instrument for monitoring, assisting, and aiding in humanitarian crises among other roles, not just as (offensive) intelligence or weapons platforms. Examples of RPA use in natural disasters and relief operations in Southeast Asia and pending models for search and rescue operations in the United States and beyond provide a blueprint for similar RPA operations, with their scope limited by the mutual consent of parties to the conflict.
Topic:: Civil War, Drones, Peace, Humanitarian Crisis, and Air Force
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

3837. Russia and the Arab Spring

Author:: Alexander Vysotsky
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Connections
Institution:: Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:: The Russian attitude to the Arab Spring—a mixture of skepticism, caution and mis-trust—was for a long time poorly understood outside the country. In the West, which initially saw in the Arab Spring the familiar battle between “democracy from below” and “dictatorship from above,” many accused Moscow of sympathizing with outdated au-thoritarian regimes, even facilitating their behavior, and of being incapable of keeping up with the times. Later, the situation changed. As democratic revolutions were replaced by civil con-flicts (some more peaceful, others more bloody, all exacerbated by ethnic or religious differences) Russia’s conservative position started to find support, both within the Mid-dle East and beyond. The breakthrough Russo-American agreement on Syrian chemical weapons opened the door to the Geneva II talks, bringing factions within Syria to the same talks table, and also helping regulate the Iranian nuclear issue. To understand the factors that shaped the Russian attitude to the Arab Spring, we need to review recent Russian history and how the situation has changed Russia’s bor-ders. In this article, we will attempt to circumscribe these factors, and offer insights into their true nature.
Topic:: Imperialism, Social Movement, Authoritarianism, Democracy, Arab Spring, and Protests
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Europe, Middle East, and Syria

3838. The “Color Revolutions” and “Arab Spring” in Russian Official Discourse

Author:: Yulia Niktina
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Connections
Institution:: Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:: The “color revolutions” in the post-Soviet space were initially understood to mean the Rose Revolution in Georgia (2003), the Orange Revolution in Ukraine (2004) and Tulip Revolution in Kyrgyzstan (2005). The one feature these events share is considered to be the non-violent nature of the regime change resulting from mass protests. The 2010 revolution in Kyrgyzstan may also be relegated to this group of cases: although the revolution was not entirely peaceful it nonetheless led to a change in the country’s lead-ership. Somewhat less clear are regime change attempts or mass protests, for example the situation in Andijan (Uzbekistan) in 2005 or the mass protests and riots in Moldova in 2009. It is still unclear whether the power shift in Ukraine in February 2014 should be considered a “color revolution;” there is also no precise definition of the concept of the “Arab spring,” which is usually thought to include the mass upheaval and protests, more often not peaceful, that led (or did not lead) to regime change in a number of countries of the Arab world starting in late 2010. Despite the lack of consensus among political leaders and experts regarding terminology, on the whole the terms “color revolutions” and “Arab spring” have caught on and as a rule are used without further explanation in Russian official discourse in the expert community and in the media.
Topic:: Social Movement, Arab Spring, Protests, and Color Revolutions
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Middle East, and Eastern Europe

3839. Return to Babel: The Race to Integration in the Southern Caucasus

Author:: Heidemaria Gurer
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Connections
Institution:: Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:: When talking or writing about the (Southern) Caucasus, I usually like to start by illustrating the diversity of its three countries when it comes to their cultural, linguistic, historical, economic and religious composition. This is due to the heavy migration in the region and the century-long influence of surrounding regional powers and to the fact that it is located in a strategic triangle between Iran, Russia and Turkey, with additional geopolitical interest coming from the European Union and the United States. There is a significant background of existing conflicts to take into account. For those who know the region this may seem redundant; however, for “newcomers” it is a good start in describing the (Southern) Caucasian Babel.
Topic:: Imperialism, Migration, Regional Cooperation, and Diversity
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Asia, and South Caucasus

3840. What Are the Prospects for Success of the Peace Talks on Syria?

Author:: Tiziana Trotta
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: The United Nations Peace Conference on Syria is due to take place on 22nd January in Geneva. The Syrian Government and opposition will meet for the first time since the outbreak of the conflict in March 2011. Nevertheless, there are very few prospects of finding a satisfactory solution to end the conflict.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Islam, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arab Countries

3841. Increasing Diversity in the Euro-Mediterranean Region?

Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: Contrary to what was previously thought, the Arab revolutions have not led to the democratization of the entire Southern Mediterranean region. In fact, the region is today more heterogeneous than before, with some countries heading towards democracy and others plunged into severe internal crisis. Old and new internal and external actors are also willing to gain influence and power amidst diverging conflicts of interests.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Security, Democratization, and Political Activism
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arab Countries

3842. Report of the Kick Off Meeting "The Arab Spring in Comparative Perspective"o

Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: On the occasion of the Annual Summit of the Strategic Studies Network (Bangkok, 23-25 February 2014), several EuroMeSCo researchers participated in the kick off meeting of the Working Group “The Arab Spring in Comparative Perspective”. This group, lead by the European Institute of the Mediterranean (IEMed) will involve over 20 EuroMeSCo researchers, who will work throughout the year with the aim of publishing a joint volume on comparative perspectives of the transitions in the Arab world. The Working Group is structured around two main blocks: “Internal changes in transition processes: What priorities?” and “External actors and regional integration”. It consists of a total of 6 working packages, each of them lead by two EuroMeSCo researchers. The topics to be explored are: State building processes and reforms, security sector reform, the role of religion in transitional processes, socio-economic reforms, the role of the European Union in supporting democratic transitions in the Southern Mediterranean and regional integration.
Topic:: Security, Democratization, Politics, Religion, and Economies
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arab Countries

3843. Democracies in the Making: Egypt at the Center of Arab Transitions

Publication Date:: 07-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: The workshop "Democracies in the Making: Egypt at the Centre of Arab Transitions" focused on the analysis of the current phase of the democratic transition in Egypt, dominated by a high level of polarisation. It was organized by EuroMesco, the European Institute of the Meditereanan (IMed) and the Al Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies (ACPSS), wit the support of the Spanish agency for International Development Cooperation (AECID). This was the last of a series of four workshops organised in the framework of a program to strengthen the capacities of think tanks and research institutes in Meditereanan countries, mainly in light of the current democratisation process and regional transformations.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, Politics, and Elections
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arab Countries, and Egypt

3844. Democracies in the Making: Egypt at the Centre of Arab Transitions

Publication Date:: 07-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: The workshop "Democracies in the Making: Egypt at the Center of Arab Transitions" focused on the analysis of the current phase of the democractic transition in Egypt, dominated by a high level of polarisation. It was organised by EuroMeSco, the European Institute of the Mediterranean (IEMed) and the Al Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies (ACPSS), with the support of the Spanish Agency for International Development Cooperation (AECID). This was the last of a series of four workshops organised in the framework of a programme to strengthen the capacities of think tanks and research institutes in Mediterranean countries, mainly in light of the current democratisation processes and regional transformations.
Topic:: Security, Democratization, Politics, Religion, and Elections
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arab Countries, and Egypt

3845. South Asia Regional Dynamics and Strategic Concerns

Author:: Robert D. Lamb, Sadika Hameed, and Kathryn Mixon
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The United States has a number of interests and values at stake in India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan, or "South Asia" for the purposes of this analysis. But it also has a broader set of such concerns at stake regionally (in the greater Middle East, Eurasia, East Asia, and Southeast Asia)—and, of course, globally as well. Any long- term policy or strategy frame- work for South Asia needs to be built around the global and regional concerns that are most likely to persist across multiple changes in U.S. political leadership regardless of political party.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Foreign Policy, Islam, War, and Insurgency
Political Geography:: Pakistan, South Asia, Middle East, and India

3846. Iraq in Crisis

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman and Sam Khazai
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: As events in late December 2013 and early 2014 have made brutally clear, Iraq is a nation in crisis bordering on civil war. It is burdened by a long history of war, internal power struggles, and failed governance. Is also a nation whose failed leadership is now creating a steady increase in the sectarian divisions between Shi'ite and Sunni, and the ethnic divisions between Arab and Kurd.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Insurgency, Fragile/Failed State, Governance, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:: Russia, Middle East, and Arabia

3847. External threats, US bases, and prudent voters in Okinawa

Author:: Koji Kagotani and Yuki Yanai
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Relations of the Asia-Pacific
Institution:: Japan Association of International Relations
Abstract:: A number of US overseas bases were deployed around the world to protect allies and maintain regional peace. Some bases have been stationed in the partner countries for the long term, whereas others were withdrawn from their partners' territories in the face of strong local opposition. Understanding local support for US overseas bases is indispensable for managing alliance politics and pursuing US grand strategy. This article addresses the 1972–2006 Okinawa gubernatorial elections where the US base issue had been chronically politicized and locals supported pro-base candidates six out of ten times contrary to their anti-base preferences. This article addresses external threats as a determinant of vote choice. We analyze the gubernatorial elections as the opportunities for Okinawans to convey their support for or opposition to the current national security policy since US bases in Okinawa are critical to Japan's security. We ï¬nd that external threats do encourage Okinawans to support pro-base candidates, but the effect of perceived security-related risks is moderate. Moreover, physical and psychological costs such as airplane crashes, environmental and noise pollution, and rape incidents have larger inï¬‚uence on the election outcomes rather than material beneï¬ts such as the ï¬scal transfers and base-related subsidies, which is contrary to the conventional view.
Topic:: Security, Environment, and Politics
Political Geography:: Japan and Middle East

3848. Cybersecurity and Stability in the Gulf

Author:: James Andrew Lewis
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The Gulf has become a flashpoint for cyber conflict. Cyberspace has become an arena for covert struggle, with the United States, Israel and other nations on one side, and Iran and Russia on the other. Iran has far outpaced the GCC states in developing its cyber capabilities, both for monitoring internal dissent and deploying hackers to disrupt or attack foreign targets. Several such attacks over the past two years were likely either directed or permitted by Iranian state authorities. Even if Iran holds back from offensive actions as nuclear talks progress, the growth in Iranian capabilities remains a potential security threat for other Gulf states. The GCC countries have begun to develop their defensive capabilities, but they will need to expand their defenses and collaborate more effectively to deter future threats.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Defense Policy, Development, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

3849. "Forgotten" Directions in the Study of Transnational Networks

Author:: Raffaele Marchetti
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The International Spectator
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The articles of this core present a number of innovative studies on transnational networks. Mainstream transnational network research has suffered from a number of theoretical biases which have prevented comprehensive study of the wide range of transnational activism of civil society organisations (CSOs). These biases concern, in particular, the notion of the ' civilness ' of CSOs, their Western origin, their bourgeois nature, and their centre-left political orientation in terms of views on global politics.
Political Geography:: United States and Middle East

3850. Did Bush Democratize the Middle East? The Effects of External–Internal Linkages

Author:: Bruce Gilley
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Political Science Quarterly
Institution:: Academy of Political Science
Abstract:: BRUCE GILLEY examines how the so-called Freedom Agenda of President George W. Bush affected politics in the Middle East. He concludes that this agenda generally exerted positive effects on democratic change in the region, although often working in unintended ways and usually interacting with domestic factors. - See more at: http://www.psqonline.org/article.cfm?IDArticle=19165#sthash.BVzmnkw7.dpuf
Political Geography:: Middle East

3851. Annual Threat Assessment

Author:: Rohan Gunaratna
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: The year 2013 has been the most violent since the beginning of the contemporary wave of terrorism. Although Al Qaeda's core has decreased in size, the group has become even more influential. With its extraordinary presence on the web, Al Qaeda is guiding its associates to fight back. With the western drawdown from Afghanistan in 2014, the Taliban-led terrorist sanctuary will likely be reconstituted once again, threatening global stability and security.
Topic:: Terrorism
Political Geography:: South Asia, Middle East, Canada, and Southeast Asia

3852. BRINGING THE UNITED STATES BACK INTO THE MIDDLE EAST

Author:: Shadi Hamid and Peter Mandaville
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Washington Quarterly
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: It has been all too common to criticize the Obama administration for a lack of strategic vision in responding to the Arab uprisings. While such criticism may be valid, it is time to move beyond critique and articulate not just a bold vision, but one that policymakers can realistically implement within very real economic and political constraints. During the remainder of its second term, the Obama administration has an opportunity to rethink some of the flawed assumptions that guided its Middle East policy before the Arab Spring—and still guide it today. Chief among these is the idea that the United States can afford to continue turning a blind eye to the internal politics of Arab countries so long as local regimes look out for a narrow set of regional security interests. With so much policy bandwidth focused on putting out fires, the United States has neglected the important task of thinking about its longer term engagement in the region. Crisis management is the most immediate concern for policymakers, but it's not necessarily the most important.
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Libya, Syria, and Egypt

3853. The Failure of the Security Paradigm in Syria: The human security perspective

Author:: Ari Kerkkänen
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Few would dispute the assertion that human security has failed in Syria. Authoritarian regimes in the Arab world have had well-documented deficits in human security emerging from coercive internal politics, a lack of respect for human rights such as freedom of expression, and limited freedom from fear and want. The concept of human security has developed mainly within the domain of UN development policy, but it has also made headway in security policy, being advocated as one approach in international crisis management and peacekeeping. Less attention has been paid to its adaptability in forming the basis for the internal security policy of any given state. The main argument of this paper is that human security principles can be the cornerstones of state security, potentially preventing, mitigating, and remedying security issues within a state that could lead to societal upheaval. The argument is presented by outlining some major developments in the history of modern Syria up to its present state of civil war. The paper shows that the security paradigm exercised in Syria has led to a double failure in which human insecurity has resulted in turmoil for ordinary people and has shattered the authoritarian governance. The paper suggests that the rebuilding of security sectors must be based on the principles of human security, not only in Syria but also in the Arab world at large.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Human Rights, Governance, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

3854. A New Challenge for Turkey: Civil War in Syria

Author:: Nursin Atesoglu Guney
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Insight Turkey
Institution:: SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:: The Arab Spring gave rise to a variety of transitions in the Middle East. Although initial developments in Tunisia and Egypt created optimism, tragic events in Egypt, Syria, Tunisia and elsewhere revived fears about a return to authoritarian governments, failed states and civil war. With no foreseeable change in the UN Security Council with regard to Syria, the country's neighbors, including Turkey, face the risk of instability. Although a recent agreement between the US and Russia marked a major step toward destrying the regime's chemical stockpile, it fails to address the conflict itself. As such, spillover effects continue to threaten Syria's neighbors. This paper highlights the critical nature of the situation and the international community's role in finding a solution.
Topic:: War and Communications
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

3855. Debating Security in Turkey: Challenges and Changes in the Twenty-First Century

Author:: Mustafa Kibaroglu
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Insight Turkey
Institution:: SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:: Interest in Turkey and its foreign and security policies has grown significantly in the political and scholarly circles in the world, especially since the Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi – AKP) came to power with the November 2002 elections. The AKP's electoral success continued in the subsequent elections in 2007 and 2011 with an increasing percentage of votes, which was unprecedented in the history of the Turkish Republic. One particular reason why Turkey attracted much attention in the world was because, in its first years in power, the AKP was easily categorized, both in the media and in academia, mainly in the West, as an “Islamic” party with a hidden agenda that aimed at drifting Turkey away from its mainstream foreign and security policies that have long been anchored in the Western alliance, thereby turning Turkey's face toward the Middle East and the Islamic world beyond it.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Development, and Islam
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Gaza

3856. Foreign Policy after Tahrir Revolution: (Re)-Defining the Role of Egypt in the Middle East

Author:: Muzaffer Senel
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Insight Turkey
Institution:: SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:: THE CONTINUITIES, changes, ruptures, and transformation of Egyptian foreign policy have been analyzed from different angles. The changes in Egyptian foreign policy, in line with the Arab Spring and its transformative forces, were important for analysts, practitioners, and scholars working on both foreign policy and International Relations theory. Since the end of the Cold War, academia has become more receptive to the issues of the Middle East. However, in the last decade most work on the Middle East have revolved around a limited number of themes: ethnic/religious-based violence, the Arab/Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the Iranian nuclear issue, and problems related to Israel. Despite the prolific amount of literature on the foreign policies of Arab Middle Eastern countries, many of these works lack a theoretical analysis of the geostrategic positioning of these countries within the dynamics of international political power. Geostrategic positioning helps measure the possible weight of a country within the existing interna-tional and regional system, which leads to the analysis of what role a country can play in international politics. Mehmet Özkan's book is a timely addition to this literature with its in-depth analytical historical analysis and theoretical angle.
Topic:: Foreign Policy
Political Geography:: Middle East and Egypt

3857. Chinese Scholarship on Iran and the Middle East

Author:: Nadia Helmy
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Iranian Review of Foreign Affairs
Institution:: Center for Strategic Research (CSR)
Abstract:: In the past three decades, Chinese Iranian and Middle East Studies have become more and more systematic, which is reflected not only in the great volume of publication, but also in the varied research methodologies and the increase in Iranian and Middle East academic journals. The development of Chinese Middle East studies have accelerated in particular after Arab Spring revolutions and the political changes in the Middle East (2000- 2013). Research institutes evolved from state-controlled propaganda offices into multi-dimensional academic and non-academic entities, including universities, research institutes, military institutions, government offices, overseas embassies and mass media. At the same time, publications evolved from providing an introduction and overview of Iran and Middle Eastern states to in-depth studies of Middle East politics and economics in three stages: beginnings (1949- 1978), growth (1979- 1999), and dealing with energy, religion, culture, society and security. The Middle East-related research programs' funding provided by provincial, ministerial and national authorities have increased and the quality of research has greatly improved. And finally, China has established, as well as joined, various academic institutions and NGOs, such as the Chinese Middle East Studies Association (CMESA), the Asian Middle East Studies Association (AMESA) and the Arabic Literature Studies Association (ALSA). However, Chinese Middle East Studies remain underdeveloped, both in comparison with China's American, European, and Japanese studies at home, and with Middle East studies in the West.
Topic:: Security, Energy Policy, Government, Politics, Religion, Culture, and Authoritarianism
Political Geography:: Japan, China, America, Europe, Iran, Middle East, and Arabia

3858. Iran in the American Executive-Legislative Relationship

Author:: Alireza Ahmadi
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Iranian Review of Foreign Affairs
Institution:: Center for Strategic Research (CSR)
Abstract:: Having reached an interim accord in Geneva, two governments with a tortured political history must now work to sell it and the diplomatic strategy they have laid out to their own constituencies back home. In this paper, the role of the United States Congress in the process of developing American foreign policy in general and, in the current matter of Iran's nuclear file in particular will be examined. To do so, it describes the history of the relationship between the White House and Congress and then examines the difficult task of the Obama administration to garner support for its strategy in Congress. It reviews the reservations voiced by many in Congress regarding the Geneva nuclear interim accord as well as their misgivings regarding a final agreement. As the matter at hand involves high stake politics in the Middle East, it may carry grave consequences for the status quo in the region. The possible ramifications and the way this effects the position of those in Congress will also be explored. Lastly, since lobby groups have historically had a major role in American foreign policy towards the Middle East, their extensively-discussed role in this case as well as challenges they face will also be touched upon. In general, this paper proposes to describe specifically the way the US policy towards Iran is being formulated and what role Congress plays in the process. Effort will be made to find out to what extent the domestic politics has an impact on the approach of Congress towards Iran and how Congress may be influenced by Middle East regional powers.
Topic:: Foreign Policy and Government
Political Geography:: Geneva, United States, Iran, and Middle East

3859. Harvard Field Study Course: International Response to the Syrian Refugee Crisis

Author:: Claude Bruderlein
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: The Syrian refugee crisis represents one of the greatest humanitarian challenges the international community has faced over the recent years, prompting record-high levels of international aid. In view of the complexity of the political and social environment in which these challenges arise and the historical scale of the population affected, innovative and creative programmatic responses are essential to address the short and middle-term needs of refugees and reducing instability in the Middle East region. Over 20 students from Harvard Kennedy School and Harvard School of Public Health participated in "Assessment of the Syrian Refugee Crisis in Jordan and Critical Review of the National and International Responses," a winter field study course in Jordan supported by the Middle East Initiative and led by Professor Claude Bruderlein. Read more about their learning experience below and in the attached report.
Topic:: Human Welfare, Humanitarian Aid, International Cooperation, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

3860. Plan Colombia: A Retrospective

Author:: Michael Shifter
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Americas Quarterly
Institution:: Council of the Americas
Abstract:: At first glance, perhaps the most notable feature of Plan Colombia has been its longevity. Given the current divisiveness in Washington, the bipartisan support it has received across three administrations now seems remarkable. After 12 years, the plan is gradually winding down, but the U.S. allocated more than $300 million under the program in 2012 alone. Although the Plan has evolved considerably since it was approved by the U.S. Congress in July 2000, it has become shorthand for wide-ranging U.S. cooperation with Colombia to assist that country in combating drugs, guerrilla violence, and related institutional and social problems. All told, the U.S. has spent nearly $8 billion on the initiative—more than anywhere outside of the Middle East, and Iraq and Afghanistan since the end of the Cold War. Although the effort gave priority to counter-narcotics operations—and specifically the eradication of coca in southern Colombia—from the outset it also encompassed assistance for the judiciary and economic development.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Cold War, Development, Government, and Human Rights
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Washington, and Middle East

3861. From Transformation to Mediation: The Arab Spring Reframed

Author:: Richard Youngs
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Politics in the Middle East are increasingly polarized and fragmented. The Arab Spring's citizen-led spirit of reform is still alive, but societies are increasingly torn apart by bitter tensions between Sunni and Shia, secular liberals and Islamists, and governments and civil society. As polarization has deepened, the concern with engaging in dialogue to bridge differences has intensified. The relationship between these mediation efforts and support for systemic reform will be a pivotal factor in the Middle East's future political trajectory.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, Democratization, Islam, Regime Change, Governance, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, and Arabia

3862. Jordan: The Geopolitical Service Provider

Author:: Emmanuel Comolet
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Brookings Institution
Abstract:: Jordan is in the eye of the Arab cyclone. It remains stable while surrounded by chaotic political situations in Syria, Iraq, Palestine and the Sinai Peninsula. Jordan has not experienced the massive demonstrations aimed at regime change that have been seen elsewhere in the region, and its relative stability has enabled it to cash in on the geo-political services it provides. These services include: hosting refugees from Palestine, Iraq or Syria; remaining a reliable ally for many international powers; featuring a strong army that plays a stabilizing role in the region; serving as an intermediary when neighboring countries need a host or a dealmaker; and providing qualified Jordanian workers to fill open vacancies for companies and countries, especially in the Gulf. The current stability in Jordan matches well its historic capacity to resist and adapt to shocks. However, the contemporary situation of the labor market reveals that the weaknesses observed in the countries having experienced revolutions (e.g., Tunisia and Egypt) are also present in Jordan; labor market participation is low with very few women active, and the unemployment rate of educated young people is worrisome. Both the number of Jordanians working abroad and the number of migrant workers in Jordan show the discrepancy between demand and supply of labor in Jordan. This could become problematic, since the economic situation has been worsening, notably with fewer public jobs available. Hence there is a need for international donors to keep supporting Jordan in a difficult regional environment, for the government of Jordan to wittily manage the balance between Transjordanians and West Bankers in the near future and for new workers to alter their expectations in searching for opportunities outside the public sector.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Democratization, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Iraq, America, Middle East, Arabia, Syria, and Tunisia

3863. Un conflit d'appropriation de la terre,révélateur et producteur de frontières :le cas d'Anjar (Liban, plaine de la Békaa)

Author:: Karine Bennafla
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cultures & Conflits
Institution:: Cultures & Conflits
Abstract:: Cet article est consacré à l'étude d'un conflit local au Liban, un pays du Proche-Orient abritant officiellement dix-sept « communautés » confessionnelles. Cet enchevêtrement de frontières intérieures sur un territoire restreint alimente des troubles récurrents, comme en témoignent les affrontements intercommunautaires de mai 2007 ou la guerre civile qui a meurtri le pays durant quinze ans (1975-1990), transformée au fil du temps en guerre de clans et de factions. De nombreux écrits sont consacrés à ces déchirements libanais, surtout de la part d'historiens, de politologues ou de sociologues. Notre étude de cas revient sur ces tensions politico-confessionnelles libanaises non pas d'un point de vue sociologique mais géographique, en les abordant à une échelle micro et en privilégiant une entrée spatiale. Le conflit d'appropriation foncière qui secoue la bourgade d'Anjar (qui compte environ 5000 résidents) montre la transcription au sol des frictions communautaires et des stratégies identitaires avec, pour corollaires, l'élaboration d'une frontière – entendue comme limite politique transcrite dans l'espace – et un conflitde mémoire, celle du lieu disputé.
Topic:: Sociology
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

3864. United Nations Sanctions on Iran and North Korea: An Implementation Manual

Author:: Enrico Carisch and Loraine Rickard-Martin
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: This manual is intended as a tool for officials of UN member states, international organizations, companies, and corporations to support sanctions implementation. The manual delivers to frontline actors in the public and private sectors specific guidance to enable more effective compliance with UN non-proliferation sanctions on Iran and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK).
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Sanctions
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North Korea, and United Nations

3865. Gringo Stay Here!

Author:: Andy Baker
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Americas Quarterly
Institution:: Council of the Americas
Abstract:: "Why do they hate us?” This question1, on so many U.S. citizens' minds over the decade following the September 11, 2001, attacks, is often asked about Islamic extremists and even the broader Muslim world. Among the most common responses is that “they” resent U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East. When the focus shifts to Latin America, U.S. foreign policy similarly appears to be the principal reason for anti-Americanism. This seems to make sense. One would be hard-pressed to find another world region with greater and more long-standing grievances about Washington's actions. The Monroe Doctrine, Dollar Diplomacy and Cold War Containment were euphemisms for imperial abuses committed against Latin America over the course of two centuries.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Cold War, and Islam
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Latin America

3866. Power Shift

Author:: Michael Levi and Jason Bordoff
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Americas Quarterly
Institution:: Council of the Americas
Abstract:: The energy landscape in the Americas has shifted dramatically in just a few years. Only a decade ago, experts expected most of the world's new oil supplies to come from the former Soviet Union and the Middle East. Now the odds are that most of the growth in global oil supplies will come from North America and Brazil. Just five years ago, conventional wisdom held that North America would become a big importer of natural gas—with some supplies coming from its neighbors to the south. Now, a boom in natural gas production raises the prospect that the U.S. will become a gas exporter. This is occurring at a time when developing countries in Asia are driving the growth in world oil demand. The collision of these trends is radically reshaping the global energy map—reducing oil imports to Europe and North America while increasing shipments from producers in the Middle East, Africa and Russia to the Pacific Rim.
Political Geography:: Russia, Middle East, Canada, Germany, and North America

3867. The Next Energy Superpower?

Author:: Eric Farnsworth
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Americas Quarterly
Institution:: Council of the Americas
Abstract:: A revolution in supply, driven by technological change and beginning in the United States, is transforming the energy sector. A commodity whose scarcity defined geopolitics and economics from the beginning of the industrial age is now becoming a potentially abundant resource. This will not only reshape the global energy map and global politics, but also change U.S. policy in the Western Hemisphere. Unimpeded access to cost-effective energy supplies for itself and its primary allies has long been a U.S. strategic interest. Most observers know that Washington's foreign policy and defense priorities in the Middle East, Europe and Asia, including sea lane protection, are buttressed by energy security concerns. Many of these same observers do not appreciate that the Western Hemisphere is also a critical energy partner: peaceful, non-threatening and unthreatened. But all that is about to change.
Topic:: Foreign Policy
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, Middle East, and Asia

3868. The Flawed Strategic Debate on Syria

Author:: Richard Outzen
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: Dating from Bashar al-Asad's first suppression of mass demonstrations in April 2011, the war in Syria is now 3 years old, has killed more than 130,000 Syrians, and displaced nine million Syrians, two million as refugees into neighboring countries. Foreign intervention has increasingly shaped the course of the fighting and will continue to have substantial regional consequences. The complexity of this bitter, nominally internal struggle has dampened American enthusiasm for joining the fray or even paying much attention to Syria, notwithstanding the chemical weapon attacks on Gouta, east of Damascus, last August, which captured the attention of the American people, media, and policy community. With an international taboo broken and a Presidential redline crossed, public debate spiked in August-September 2013 over U.S. interests in Syria and the limits on what we will do to secure them. Debate did not result in a consensus for action.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:: America, Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

3869. The Roots of Crisis in Northern Lebanon

Author:: Raphaël Lefèvre
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Syria's civil war is having a dramatic impact on its neighbors, particularly Lebanon. The spillover is glaring in the northern city of Tripoli, where street violence is rising, sectarianism is at unprecedented levels, and Sunni extremism is flourishing. This instability threatens to spread to other areas of the country. Yet, Lebanon's problems have as much to do with domestic dynamics as with the unrest in Syria. Lebanese policymakers must address a number of issues that have long been ignored.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Political Violence
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

3870. Maritime Security in the Middle East and North Africa: A Strategic Assessment

Author:: Robert M. Shelala II
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The waterways of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA region) are among the most important in the world. They facilitate the export of large volumes of oil and natural gas from the region, while also bridging traders in the Eastern and Western worlds through the Red Sea and Suez Canal. While political tensions in the region have at times played out in these waterways since the mid-20th century, their vulnerability has been exasperated in recent years by the failure of bordering governments to promote internal stability, the lack of adequate maritime security capabilities of nearby states, and the potential naval threats posed by the government of Iran.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, International Security, Military Strategy, and Maritime Commerce
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and North Africa

3871. Improving the US-GCC Security Partnership: Planning for the Future

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Over the years since the formation of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), the Southern Gulf states and the US have developed a de facto strategic partnership based on a common need to deter and defend against any threat from Iran, deal with regional instability in countries like Iraq and Yemen, counter the threat of terrorism and extremism, and deal with the other threats to the flow of Gulf petroleum exports.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Defense Policy, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Yemen, Arabia, and North America

3872. Shifting IMF Policies since the Arab Uprisings

Author:: Bessma Momani and Dustyn Lanz
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: In response to the Arab uprisings in Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia, the IMF has changed its perspective on the social outcomes of its economic policy advice. The Fund now explicitly advocates inclusive growth, reduced inequality and increased attention to, and spending on, health and education services. Although this is a welcome transition, there is still room for improvement. In particular, the Fund could strengthen its commitment to the social dimensions of public policy by delivering more specific, tangible policy advice for countries to achieve inclusive growth, reduce inequality and improve health and education outcomes. More diverse expertise, achieved through wider recruitment of staff, would help the IMF achieve these goals.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and International Monetary Fund
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia

3873. Assessing Future Water Availability in Arid Regions Using Composition and Salience of Decision Criteria

Author:: Laura Diaz Anadon, Afreen Siddiqi, and Farah Ereiqat
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: Water resources development options are usually selected on a least-cost basis. While economic considerations are dominant in choosing projects, there are also a mix of other factors including social demands, political expediency, social equity, and environmental considerations that impact final decisions and development of water supply systems. Understanding local priorities in water resource management decisions can allow for forming expectations of future regional water availability. In this research, we propose that future water availability in arid regions may be assessed by considering key projects that have been identified or planned by regional experts. Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis methods as a framework to organize set of decision criteria and their relative salience, the likelihood of selection (and development) of a project can be determined and used to form expectations of future regional water availability. We use this approach in a case study for Jordan, and find that large-scale desalination projects–that have been in the planning books for decades-are now most likely to be pursued and implemented in the country. Finally, we discuss strengths, limitations, and the general applicability of this method for assessing future water availability in other arid regions.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Environment, Natural Resources, and Water
Political Geography:: Middle East

3874. The War of Jihadists Against Jihadists in Syria

Author:: Nelly Lahoud and Muhammad al-`Ubaydi
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: ON FEBRUARY 2, 2014, al-Qa`ida released a statement declaring that "it has no connection" with the "group" called the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). The statement further highlighted that al-Qa`ida was not responsible for founding the ISIL and was not privy to the deliberations that led to its establishment. That is why, the statement continued, "The ISIL is not a branch of al-Qa`ida, the latter is not bound by organizational ties to it and is not responsible for the ISIL's actions."
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Civil War, Islam, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

3875. Fueling a New Order? The New Geopolitical and Security Consequences of Energy

Author:: Bruce Jones, David Steven, and Emily O'Brien
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:: On December 16, 2013, Prince Turki bin Faisal Al Saud, Saudi Arabia's powerful former intelligence chief, gave an interview to the Wall Street Journal. He was speaking out after a turbulent four months in Middle East and Persian Gulf diplomacy, diplomacy that culminated in an interim nuclear deal between Iran and the major powers. Prince Turki, long a close friend to the United States, used the interview to blast American policy. He was critical of U.S. strategy in the region as a whole, but particularly vehement about leaving Saudi Arabia out of the loop as the United States engaged in secret bilateral diplomacy with Iran. "How can you build trust when you keep secrets from what are supposed to be your closest allies?" he fumed.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Economics, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Oil
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Asia

3876. The Kurds in the spotlight: local and regional challenges

Author:: Ana Villellas
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: The Kurds in Syria, Turkey and Iraq face complex challenges. Among the current Kurdish realities, the emergence of Kurdish self-governing areas in northern Syria controlled by what is considered to be the Syrian branch of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) generates considerable uncertainty. The complex civil war in Syria and antagonism between the Kurdish Democratic Union Party and a fragmented Kurdish political spectrum generate many questions as to the future of these Kurdish areas in Syria. In the case of Turkey, old and new internal and regional factors have threatened the dialogue under way between Turkey and the PKK. These include the lack of clear state policies to resolve the conflict, Turkey's current internal crisis, the complications of cross-border dynamics, and the mutual impact of the Kurdish questions in Syria and Turkey. In Iraq, tensions continue between the Kurdistan Regional Government and the country's central administration. The consolidation of Kurdish autonomy – with new elements such as the energy agreement between Erbil and Ankara – continues to generate uncertainty in a context where many issues remain unresolved.
Topic:: Civil War, Economics, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

3877. Putting State Legitimacy at the Center of Foreign Operations and Assistance

Author:: Bruce Gilley
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: PRISM
Institution:: Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
Abstract:: It is a commonly expressed idea that a key goal of intervention in and assistance to foreign nations is to establish (or re-establish) legitimate political authority. Historically, even so great a skeptic as John Stuart Mill allowed that intervention could be justified if it were "for the good of the people themselves" as measured by their willingness to support and defend the results. In recent times, President George W. Bush justified his post-war emphasis on democracybuilding in Iraq, Afghanistan, and elsewhere in the Middle East with the logic that "nations in the region will have greater stability because governments will have greater legitimacy." President Obama applauded French intervention in Mali for its ability "to reaffirm democracy and legitimacy and an effective government" in the country
Topic:: Government
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Iraq, and Middle East

3878. Can the U.S. Government Accept an Independent Turkish Foreign Policy in the Middle East?

Author:: Richard Falk
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Insight Turkey
Institution:: SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:: The end of the Cold War marked the end of adversary patterns of alignment in the Middle East, and the ebbing dichotomy between the U.S. and USSR led to vast uncertainty. In response, then-President Turgut Özal stated, as early as 1991, that Turkey should seek an active foreign policy. It was not, until the AK Party came to power a decade later, however, that Ankara began to seriously question Turkey's acquiescence in Washington's strategic unipolarity. Ahmet Davutoglu's appointment as Foreign Minister emphasized Turkey's independence and activism, causing unease in Washington. Nevertheless, the U.S. has been generally flexible toward a more independent Turkish foreign policy, under the condition that it does not threaten vital U.S. interests.
Topic:: Cold War
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, and Middle East

3879. The Iran Nuclear Deal: Rewriting the Middle East Map

Author:: James M. Dorsey
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Insight Turkey
Institution:: SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:: Surveying today's Middle Eastern and North African landscape offers few straws of hope. Iran's reemergence producing a potential catalyst for a focus on core domestic political, economic and social issues could be one of those few straws. Whether Iran wittingly or unwittingly plays that role, the Middle East and North Africa are only likely to break their internecine cycle of violence and despair when the alternative becomes too costly. A resolution of the nuclear issue offers Iran far more than the ultimate lifting of crippling international sanctions. It would also allow Iran to capitalize on geostrategic gains it has made despite its international isolation. What worries opponents of the nuclear deal like Israel and Saudi Arabia most is the potential transformation of Iran from a game spoiler into a constructive player.
Topic:: Government
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, and North Africa

3880. Geopolitical Codes in Davutoğlu's Views toward the Middle East

Author:: Emre Ersen
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Insight Turkey
Institution:: SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:: Critical geopolitics, which is a relatively new field of study for scholars of international relations, seeks to understand and analyze how politics is imagined spatially. To this end, it makes a distinction between three types of geopolitical reasoning: formal, practical, and popular geopolitics. Ahmet Davutoğlu is a very significant figure in terms of exploring the close relationship between formal and practical geopolitics in the context of Turkey due to his dual identities as an international relations professor and a foreign minister. Employing a critical geopolitical approach, this paper aims to discuss Davutoğlu's geopolitical ideas toward the Middle East by analyzing his writings and speeches to reveal the main images and narratives that shape his geopolitical understanding of this region.
Topic:: International Relations and Security
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

3881. The Emergence of Minorities in the Middle East: The Politics of Community in French Mandate Syria

Author:: Annika Rabo
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Insight Turkey
Institution:: SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:: The Emergence of Minorities in the Middle East. The Politics of Community in French Mandate Syria Ethnic and religious minorities – and concomitant majorities – do not just exist sui generis. They have to be constructed or invented. It is not self-evident who is included in which category and who is excluded. It is only once these categories are accepted and used by people that they appear as natural and even eternal. This basic argument in White's book is not new or startling for readers familiar with today's mainstream research on ethnicity and social classifications. None the less, it is an argument well worth reiterating, not least because of its contemporary relevance for politics in the post-Ottoman empire in general and in Syria in particular. White does this by investigating the actual emergence of concepts such a 'minorities' and 'majority' during the French mandate in Syria.
Topic:: Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

3882. Iraq's 2014 National Elections

Author:: Ahmed Ali
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:: Iraq's 2014 national elections are taking place at a difficult time. The country is at a crossroads, presented with the possibility of widely different futures. Deteriorating security conditions frame political thought in ways that harken back to Iraq's first national elections in 2005. The Iraqi state does not hold control of territory in some of Iraq's key political provinces, such as Anbar, Ninewa, and Diyala. The disenfranchisement of Iraq's Arab Sunnis; the rising threat of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS); and the activation of Ba'athist groups collectively discourage electoral participation.
Topic:: Islam, Armed Struggle, and Regime Change
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

3883. Hezbollah in Syria

Author:: Marisa Sullivan
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:: Hezbollah's deepening involvement in Syria is one of the most important factors of the conflict in 2013 and 2014. Since the beginning of 2013, Hezbollah fighters have operated openly and in significant numbers across the border alongside their Syrian and Iraqi counterparts. They have enabled the regime to regain control of rebel-held areas in central Syria and have improved the effectiveness of pro-regime forces. The impact of Hezbollah's involvement in Syria has been felt not just on the battlefield, where the regime now has momentum in many areas, but also in Lebanon where growing sectarian tensions have undermined security and stability.
Topic:: Islam, Terrorism, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Syria

3884. The Islamic State of Iraq Returns to Diyala

Author:: Jessica Lewis
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:: Anbar is not the only front in Iraq on which Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), now operating as the Islamic State of Iraq and Sham (ISIS), is fighting in 2014. ISIS has also established a governorate in Diyala. Its spokesman has named the province the central front in the sectarian conflict he has urged. The security situation and sectarian tension in Diyala province are grave. ISIS has returned to fixed fighting positions within Muqdadiyah, Baqubah, and the Diyala River Valley. Shi'a militias are now active in these areas as well. Increasing instances of population displacement demonstrate the aggregate effect of targeted violence by both groups. It is important to estimate the effects of this displacement and the presence of armed groups within Diyala's major cities in order to understand how deteriorated security conditions in this province will interfere with Iraq's upcoming parliamentary elections. Furthermore, violence in Diyala has historically both driven and reflected inter-ethnic and inter-sectarian violence in other mixed areas of Iraq, including Baghdad. Diyala is therefore a significant bellwether for how quickly these types of violence will spread to other provinces.
Topic:: Security, Ethnic Conflict, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

3885. Assad Strikes Damascus

Author:: Valerie Szybala
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:: Damascus is the Syrian regime's center of gravity. The capital of Syria has long been viewed by the rebel forces as the key to winning the war in Syria, and its loss is unthinkable for Bashar al-Assad. Thus the struggle for Damascus is existential for the regime as well as the opposition. An operational understanding of the battle for Damascus is critical to understanding the imminent trajectory of the war. This report details the course of the conflict as it engulfed Damascus in 2013; laying out the regime's strategy and describing the political and military factors that shaped its decisions on the battlefield.
Topic:: Security, Political Violence, Civil War, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

3886. Iran and the P5+1: Solving the Nuclear Rubik's Cube

Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: In a region of troubles, the negotiations over Iran's nuclear program stand out. The first-step agreement, signed in November 2013, broke a decade of futile diplomatic forays punctuated by mutual escalation. The product of a rare confluence of political calendars and actors, it set a framework for a balanced arms-control agreement that could form the basis of a comprehensive nuclear accord. But reasons for caution abound. It is easier to pause than to reverse the escalation pitting centrifuges against sanctions. Mistrust remains deep, time is short, and the process remains vulnerable to pressure from domestic and regional detractors. In bringing the sides together, the accord revealed the chasm that separates them. Success is possible only with political will to isolate the deal – at least for now – from its complex regional context. It will ultimately be sustainable only if the parties, building on its momentum, recognise that their rival's legitimate interests need to be respected. But a far-reaching resolution of differences will be possible only after a relatively narrow, technical nuclear agreement.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Sanctions
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

3887. Flight of Icarus? The PYD's Precarious Rise in Syria

Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: With the Syrian regime and opposition locked in a see-saw battle, Kurdish forces have consolidated control over large portions of the country's north. Their principal players, the Democratic Union Party (Partiya Yekîtiya Demokrat, PYD) and its armed wing, the People's Protection Units (Yekîneyên Parastina Gel, YPG), now dominate three large, non-contiguous enclaves of Kurdish-majority territory along the Turkish border, over which the PYD proclaimed in November 2013 the transitional administration of Rojava (Western Kurdistan). Kurdish governance is unprecedented in Syria and for the PYD, an offshoot of the Turkish Kurdish insurgent movement PKK, from which it draws ideological, organisational and military support. But it is unclear whether this is a first step toward stability and the Kurdish aspiration for national recognition, or merely a respite while the civil war focuses elsewhere. The PYD alone will not determine the fate of Syria's north, but it could greatly increase its chances by broadening its popular appeal and cooperating with other local forces.
Topic:: Security, Ethnic Conflict, and Insurgency
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

3888. The Rising Costs of Turkey's Syrian Quagmire

Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The Syrian crisis crashed onto neighbouring Turkey's doorstep three years ago and the humanitarian, policy and security costs continue to rise. After at least 720,000 Syrian refugees, over 75 Turkish fatalities and nearly $3 billion in spending, frustration and fatigue are kicking in. Turkey's humanitarian outreach, while morally right and in line with international principles, remains an emergency response. Ankara needs to find a sustainable, long-term arrangement with the international community to care for the Syrians who arrive daily. While spared the worst of the sectarian and military spillover, Turks are reminded of the security risks by deadly car bombs and armed incidents on their territory, especially as northern Syria remains an unpredictable no-man's-land. The conflict was not of its making, but Ankara has in effect become a party. Unable to make a real difference by itself, it should focus on protecting its border and citizens, invigorate recent efforts to move back from the ruling party's Sunni Muslim-oriented foreign policy to one of sectarian neutrality and publicly promote a compromise political solution in Syria.
Topic:: Humanitarian Aid and Refugee Issues
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

3889. A Window of Opportunity to Upgrade EU Foreign Policy

Author:: Stefan Lehne
Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: As the financial crisis recedes and the European Union (EU) regains a measure of internal stability, pressure in Europe\'s neighborhood is on the rise. The Ukraine crisis and turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa have elevated foreign policy to the top of the EU\'s agenda. Whether the EU can make its external action more effective will depend in large part on institutional decisions made in 2014—the selection of a new leadership team and the reorganization of the European Commission.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, Human Rights, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, and North Africa

3890. Dispute Resolution and Justice Provision in Yemen's Transition

Author:: Nadwa Al-Dawsari and Erica Gaston
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Yemen has long had a vibrant tradition of community-based dispute resolution, particularly tribal dispute resolution, which has become even more dominant in the transition period that followed the 2011 Arab Spring protests. As the Yemeni state has struggled to regain political equilibrium, rule of law has deteriorated and criminality and armed conflict have increased. State institutions have weakened and now struggle to meet citizens' demands. In response, citizens increasingly turn to traditional or community-based dispute resolution for their justice needs. In addition to long-standing actors or mechanisms, a number of new dispute resolution actors have emerged. Some areas have seen a retribalization, while in others, armed actors dominate. Although alternative dispute resolution actors have been an important gap-filler during this time, they have also found their authority challenged. The political uncertainty and the rise in lawlessness have simultaneously weakened both formal and informal actors' ability to resolve disputes sustainably and to prevent conflict. The result has been more limited options for peaceful dispute resolution overall, which feeds instability and has the potential to exacerbate broader conflict dynamics and weaknesses in the rule of law. Strengthening the options for lower level dispute resolution and conflict prevention are critical to restoring stability. Because of the centrality of these community-based justice mechanisms in Yemen, efforts to strengthen rule of law must take a more holistic view of justice provision to include these mechanisms and practices. Program interventions should not preference or target one system over the other but instead take an integrated approach and consider the significant role that alternative dispute resolution plays. Critical elements include supporting greater understanding of and dialogue with dispute resolution actors, incorporating alternative dispute resolution into the justice sector strategy, and focusing on reforms and adaptions on both sides.
Topic:: Reform
Political Geography:: Middle East, Yemen, and Arabia

3891. President Rouhani and the IRGC

Author:: Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Although President Rouhani has persuaded the Supreme Leader to adjust the IRGC's economic functions, he has not challenged its role in shaping Iran's nuclear policy. President Hassan Rouhani's relationship with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is a central dynamic in the country's politics and economy. As always, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ultimately determines the roles of the president and the IRGC, so Rouhani has sought to pursue his economic imperatives without crossing the Supreme Leader or the military elite on the nuclear issue.
Topic:: Security, Religion, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

3892. Ariel Sharon: From Warrior to Man of Peace at Last

Author:: David Pollock
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The Israeli leader showed himself capable of making bold policy reversals when he felt the country's welfare as a democratic Jewish state was at stake. Former Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon, at death's door today at age eighty-five after eight years in a stroke-induced coma, incarnated many of the contradictory dimensions of his entire country: courageous, and so unavoidably controversial; steadfast in his core convictions, yet flexible, impulsive, and even unpredictable in carrying them out; supremely self-confident, yet always acutely concerned about his country's security.
Topic:: Armed Struggle and Governance
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

3893. The New Triangle of Egypt, Israel, and Hamas

Author:: Ehud Yaari
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: With Israeli acquiescence to de facto alterations of the 1979 peace treaty, Egypt has deployed substantial military forces into the Sinai to combat terrorists. But Israel remains hesitant about Cairo's inclination to increase pressure on Hamas in Gaza. Over the past year, Israel and Egypt have used a little-known, legally permissible understanding -- the Agreed Activities Mechanism -- to bypass restrictions on the number and type of Egyptian forces permitted in much of the Sinai. In doing so, they have made de facto modifications to their 1979 peace treaty without resorting to the diplomatically risky procedure of "reviewing" the treaty itself. As a result, considerable Egyptian army forces are now constantly deployed in central and eastern Sinai (Areas B and C of the peninsula, respectively), in a manner and scope never envisaged by the teams that negotiated the treaty more than three decades ago. Going forward, this new reality on the ground is unlikely to be reversed and is bound to have profound consequences for Egyptian-Israeli security cooperation, Cairo's ongoing counterterrorism campaign, and the fate of Hamas in the neighboring Gaza Strip.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, Terrorism, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Gaza, Egypt, Sinai Peninsula, and Cairo

3894. Egypt's Multiple Power Centers

Author:: Adel El-Adawy
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Given the limitations and internal divisions of Egypt's various power centers, neither the military nor any other single institution is solely in charge at the moment.
Topic:: Regime Change, Governance, and Reform
Political Geography:: Middle East and Egypt

3895. Avoiding Assad's Forced Solution to the Syria Crisis

Author:: Andrew J. Tabler
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Given that Assad and his backers want to gut the transition process called for in the Geneva Communique, Washington should plan to take other steps in parallel to the Geneva process.
Topic:: Humanitarian Aid, International Cooperation, Armed Struggle, and Authoritarianism
Political Geography:: Geneva, Britain, United States, Iran, Washington, Turkey, Middle East, France, London, Germany, Saudi Arabia, United Nations, Italy, Syria, Switzerland, Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, and United Arab Emirates

3896. Assad's Indispensable Foreign Legions

Author:: Jeffrey White
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Assad is still standing, but he is not standing alone -- and he likely no longer makes decisions alone either.
Topic:: Armed Struggle and Authoritarianism
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Syria

3897. Trials and Tribulations in Lebanon

Author:: David Schenker
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The controversial Hariri trial will unfold amid growing sectarian violence in Lebanon, the seemingly interminable war in Syria, and a longstanding political stalemate regarding Hezbollah's role in government.
Topic:: Islam, Religion, Terrorism, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria

3898. Quiet Partnerships for a New Era: Emerging Opportunities for Arab-Israeli Cooperation

Author:: Alon Paz
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Regional circumstances point to both the possibility and the need for enhanced Arab-Israeli efforts to address challenges in the security, energy, food/water scarcity, and public-health domains.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, Egypt, and Maghreb

3899. Indecisive Inter-Rebel Fighting in Syria Benefits the Regime

Author:: Jeffrey White
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The ongoing clashes between rival rebel factions will likely be protracted and indecisive, and the resultant diversion of effort is already working to the regime's advantage.
Topic:: Armed Struggle
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Syria

3900. Israel's Growing Role in Southern Syria

Author:: Ehud Yaari
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Concerned about the possible drift of al-Qaeda affiliates to areas adjacent to the Golan Heights border, Israel finds itself obliged to increase its assistance to local rebel militias in southern Syria.
Topic:: Humanitarian Aid, Armed Struggle, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Syria

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS