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31. The Next Iraqi War? Sectarianism and Civil Conflict

Publication Date:
02-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The bomb attack on a sacred Shiite shrine in Samarra on 22 February 2006 and subsequent reprisals against Sunni mosques and killings of Sunni Arabs is only the latest and bloodiest indication that Iraq is teetering on the threshold of wholesale disaster. Over the past year, social and political tensions evident since the removal of the Baathist regime have turned into deep rifts. Iraq's mosaic of communities has begun to fragment along ethnic, confessional and tribal lines, bringing in stability and violence to many areas, especially those with mixed populations. The most urgent of these incipient conflicts is a Sunni-Shiite schism that threatens to tear the country apart. Its most visible manifestation is a dirty war being fought between a small group of insurgents bent on fomenting sectarian strife by killing Shiites and certain government commando units carrying out reprisals against the Sunni Arab community in whose midst the insurgency continues to thrive. Iraqi political actors and the international community must act urgently to prevent a low-intensity conflict from escalating into an all-out civil war that could lead to Iraq's disintegration and destabilise the entire region.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and Religion
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

32. Rising Tensions Between Turkey's AKP and the Courts

Author:
Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:
05-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On May 17, a gunman chanting Islamist slogans attacked the Turkish Council of State (the Danistay, or high court for administrative affairs) in Ankara. The gunman killed one judge and wounded four others who were sitting in the Council's second chamber, which has recently upheld Turkey's ban on “turbans” in schools. In accordance with the European and Turkish notion of secularism (laïcité in French) as freedom from religious symbols in the public sphere, Turkey bans public officials and school students wearing turbans—a specific style of women's headcover that emerged in the mid 1980s and that the courts consider an Islamist political symbol. (Turbans are distinct from traditional headscarves, which are not banned.) Photographs of the judges had earlier been published in Islamist newspapers with headlines targeting them.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

33. Lebanon at a Tripwire

Publication Date:
12-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Lebanon has badly lost its balance and is at risk of new collapse, moving ever closer to explosive Sunni-Shiite polarisation with a divided, debilitated Christian community in between. The fragile political and sectarian equilibrium established since the end of its bloody civil war in 1990 was never a panacea and came at heavy cost. It depended on Western and Israeli acquiescence in Syria's tutelage and a domestic system that hindered urgently needed internal reforms, and change was long overdue. But the upsetting of the old equilibrium, due in no small part to a tug-of-war by outsiders over its future, has been chaotic and deeply divisive, pitting one half of the country against the other. Both Lebanon's own politicians and outside players need to recognise the enormous risks of a zero-sum struggle and seek compromises before it is too late.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Lebanon, and Syria

34. Currents and Crosscurrents of Radical Islamism

Author:
Julianne Smith, Aidan Kirby, and Daniel Benjamin
Publication Date:
04-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The second phase of the Center for Strategic and International Studies' Transatlantic Dialogue on Terror took place against a backdrop of rapid change. When the first conference in this series took place in Berlin in the spring of 2005, scholars and practitioners were still absorbing the details of the previous year's attacks against the Madrid light rail system, the murder of Dutch artist Theo van Gogh and a host of other attacks and foiled plots. Global radicalism continued to be shaped by the deepening insurgency in Iraq, in which radical Islamists from inside and outside that country play a pivotal role. In the months following the Berlin meeting, the bombing of the London Underground, the attacks in Sharm el-Sheikh and Amman, and a stream of revelations about radical Islamist activity from Europe to the Middle East to South Asia and Australia — where a group of conspirators were arrested for plotting an attack against that country's sole nuclear facility — had also to be taken into account.
Topic:
International Relations, Ethnic Conflict, Islam, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Europe, South Asia, Middle East, London, and Australia

35. Global Jihad, Sectarianism and The Madrassahs in Pakistan

Author:
Ali Riaz
Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
In the wake of terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, discussions on ties between Islamic religious educational institutions, namely Madrassahs, and radical militant groups have featured prominently in the western media. However, in the frenzied coverage of events, a vital question has been overlooked: why have Islamic educational institutions whose traditions date back thousands of years been transformed so drastically? This paper attempts to seek an answer to this question through an examination of Madrassahs in Pakistan, the second most populous Musim country of the world. Pakistan has seen a phenomenal increase in Islamic religious schools since its independence. The paper argues that while encouragements from successive regimes, an unremitting flow of foreign funds (especially from Saudi Arabia), and the absence of governmental oversigt are the principal factors in the dramatic rise in numbers, the transformation of Madrassahs into schools of militancy and the recruiting ground of 'global Jihadists' is instrinsically linked to the sectarianism prevalent in Pakistan. Sectarianism has been encouraged by various regimes over the last three decades and received substantial support from outside since 1979. The menace of sectarianism has not only made the country ungovernable but also increasingly turned it into a breeding ground for transnational terrorists.
Topic:
International Relations, Ethnic Conflict, and Religion
Political Geography:
Pakistan and Middle East

36. Masque of Democracy: Iraqi Election System Still Disfavors Sunni Arabs, Favors Kurds

Author:
Carl Conetta
Publication Date:
12-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project on Defense Alternatives
Abstract:
In its National Strategy for Victory in Iraq the Bush administration recognizes that the key to defusing the insurgency is drawing the Sunni Arab community into the political process. And it correctly sees that this requires "inclusive institutions that offer power-sharing mechanisms and minority protections." As the strategy notes: such institutions would "demonstrate to disaffected Sunnis that they have influence and the ability to protect their interests in a democratic Iraq." Unfortunately, the administration finds it difficult to apply this precept where it would matter most: in the election process.
Topic:
Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, and Government
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Arabia, and Kurdistan

37. A Wind in Hamas's Sails: Palestinian Militants Gather Post-Disengagement Momentum

Author:
Michael Herzog
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On September 12, the last departing Israeli forces closed the gates of Gaza behind them, followed by a salvo of Palestinian rockets aimed at southern Israel. In the unsettled aftermath of the Israeli disengagement from Gaza and parts of the northern West Bank, only one camp seems clearly to know where it is heading -- the militant Palestinian Islamist groups, led by Hamas. These groups now profess their intention to continue their violent campaign in and from the West Bank. Their strategy, using armed and political capabilities, poses a serious challenge to both Palestinian and Israeli leaderships and may undermine prospects of improved Israeli-Palestinian relations.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

38. Palestinian Refugees: How can a durable solution be achieved?

Author:
Tanya Salem
Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The refugee question is at the core of the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians. Palestinians were first displaced as a direct consequence of the 1948 war and its aftermath. Twenty years later, another wave of Palestinian refugees was created as a consequence of the war during which Israel occupied the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Palestine, and Arabia

39. The Arab Minority in Israel: Implications for the Middle East Conflict

Author:
Shira Kamm
Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The Arab minority in Israel are in a unique position to contribute to the resolution of the Middle East conflict and stabilise relations between the different nations and countries in the region. This paper reviews the history of the Arab minority in Israel and reports on their legal, socio-economic and political status. It examines relations between the Arab minority and the Jewish majority, the Israeli government and the rest of the Palestinian people. On the basis of the review, this paper makes recommendations that aim to improve the situation of the Arab minority, strengthen the dialogue between the Arab minority and Jewish majority in Israel, and enable the Arab minority to act as a mediator in the Middle East peace process.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

40. The New Walls and Fences - Consequences for Israel and Palestine

Author:
Gershon Baskin and Sharon Rosenberg
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
'Good fences make good neighbours' wrote the poet Robert Frost. Israel and Palestine are certainly not good neighbours and the question that arises is will a fence between Israel and Palestine turn them into 'good neighbours'. This paper deals with the Israeli decision to construct a fence that will divide Israel and the West Bank. Almost all public debate of the wall in Israel has been limited to the security aspects. In light of the success enjoyed so far by the wall or fence around the Gaza Strip in preventing suicide bombers from getting through, the defence for needing a similar wall around the West Bank seems like an easy task.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia