Political Geography: Middle East / Publication Year: within 25 Years / Journal:

3201. Making Saudi Arabia Fun Again?

Author:: Salman al-Dosari, Aziza al-Manea, 'Adel Khamis al-Zahrani, Hind al-Mutairi, and Abdulrahman al-Rashed
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: The General Entertainment Authority was created last year as part of Saudi Arabia’s “Vision 2030” plan. The primary goal of Vision 2030 is to diversify Saudi Arabia’s oil-dependent economy, but it also aims to foster a “vibrant society” with “meaningful entertainment for citizens.” Public cinemas are banned in the kingdom, and some Saudis seek diversion abroad, often in nearby Bahrain and Dubai. So far, the General Entertainment Authority has provoked a mixed reaction: some have lauded its work to bring more cultural events to Saudi Arabia, while others accuse it of moving too quickly, and not offering enough options to less wealthy Saudis. Here are excerpts of what five Saudi pundits had to say about the issue.
Topic:: Culture, Reform, Media, News Analysis, and Leisure
Political Geography:: Middle East, Saudi Arabia, and Gulf Nations

3202. To Assad and his admirers, Trump offers ‘hope and change’

Author:: Mahdi Dakhlallah, Imad Salim, Tahseen al-Halabi, and Bashar al-Assad
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: During the presidential campaign, Trump said he “[doesn’t] like Assad at all” and described the Syrian leader as “a bad guy.” But he compared Assad favorably to the alternatives. “Assad is killing ISIS,” Trump stated, whereas “we don’t even know who they [the rebels] are.” Trump even claimed Assad to be “much tougher and much smarter” than political rivals Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Unsurprisingly, Assad and his admirers took heart in Trump’s surprise victory last November, with an adviser to the Syrian president saying the American people had “sent a great, a very important message to the world.” Yet Assad supporters – as well as the Syrian president himself – are taking a cautious approach to the new US administration, unsure of whether, and to what extent, Trump will overhaul American foreign policy. Here’s what columnists in pro-Assad media outlets think about Trump’s implications for Syria, followed by excerpts from two interviews with Assad about the new US president.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, War, Elections, News Analysis, Trump, and Syrian War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Syria, North America, and United States of America

3203. Wikipedia is the latest victim of Turkey’s information blackout

Author:: JMEPP
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: Wikipedia, the online encyclopedia, has become the latest victim of the Turkish government’s crackdown on press freedoms. Turkey’s Information Technologies and Communications Authority (BTK) did not give an explanation for last week’s ban. But the blocking of Wikipedia came as little surprise in Turkey, whose citizens have experienced sporadic blackouts of social media sites since May 2013.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Internet, Social Media, Freedom of Expression, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

3204. The glass half empty: Water in the Middle East

Author:: JMEPP
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: Climate change is affecting us all – but some parts of the world will probably bear a far bigger burden than others. A recent study published in the journal Climate Change shows that rising temperatures in the Middle East and North Africa are likely to exceed 2 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, even if the global mean temperature remains below this threshold.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Natural Resources, and Water
Political Geography:: Middle East, North Africa, and Gulf Nations

3205. Tunisia: “Unemployment has killed me”

Author:: JMEPP
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: The Tunisian revolution of 2010-11 has been understood as a point of rupture after years of worsening job prospects and living standards in the country. Some have claimed it highlighted the inefficacy of Tunisia’s development policies, while other studies saw a link between high rates of literacy, lack of economic opportunities, and protests against the state. One should, however, be cautious of taking an economically deterministic approach to Tunisia’s uprising. Many countries whose citizens are mired in deep poverty and rampant unemployment are not in a state of revolt. Other factors such as pre-existing social networks (like trade unions and family ties) also play a major role in shaping political events. Furthermore, economic statistics in North African countries, such as Tunisia, are often manipulated for political reasons.
Topic:: Politics, Poverty, Popular Revolt, Reform, Economy, and Protests
Political Geography:: Middle East, North Africa, and Tunisia

3206. Uncertain allies: the Jerusalem announcement amid shifting regional priorities

Author:: Andrew McIndoe
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: On 6 December the Trump administration made an unprecedented decision to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. The announcement, which both recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and conveyed President Trump’s intention to relocate the United States’ embassy to the Holy City, is a move shrouded in obscure motivations. Was it a manifestation of the strongly pro-Israel orientation of the new government? Was it merely the fulfilment of a campaign promise, a sop to the president’s evangelical and pro-Israel support base? Or was it truly designed, as the President maintained, to reenergize a peace process that has been stuck in the mud for years?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Peace Studies, Trump, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Jerusalem, and United States of America

3207. Power play: The United Arab Emirates’ new approach to geopolitics

Author:: JMEPP
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: Power – be it tangible, intangible, natural, military, or economic – shapes the capacities of the state and its role within the international system. The Middle East is no exception to this realist reading of international affairs. The Arab Spring, the Syrian conflict, the war in Yemen and the Iranian nuclear deal have all created a battleground, often quite literally, for state power interests to compete with one another. How are these power configurations linked to identity? The United States sees itself as a stronghold of liberal democracy, Japan as the quintessential trading nation, and Switzerland is comfortably ensconced in its 200-year-old neutralism. This “sense of self,” or who states are, shapes and defines what they do. Power and identity routinely mould and inform each other. For a country like the United Arab Emirates, described by many analysts as a middle, regional, or rising power, these questions hold particular relevance as the UAE reshapes its position in the world.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Power Politics, Soft Power, Identities, and State
Political Geography:: Middle East, United Arab Emirates, and Gulf Nations

3208. Militarizing the Nation: The Army, Business, and Revolution in Egypt

Author:: Zeinab Abdul-Magd
Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Book
Institution:: Columbia University Press
Abstract:: Egypt's army portrays itself as a faithful guardian "saving the nation." Yet saving the nation has meant militarizing it. Zeinab Abul-Magd examines both the visible and often invisible efforts by Egypt's semi-autonomous military to hegemonize the country's politics, economy, and society over the past six decades. The Egyptian army has adapted to and benefited from crucial moments of change. It weathered the transition to socialism in the 1960s, market consumerism in the 1980s, and neoliberalism from the 1990s onward, all while enhancing its political supremacy and expanding a mammoth business empire. Most recently, the military has fought back two popular uprisings, retained full power in the wake of the Arab Spring, and increased its wealth. While adjusting to these shifts, military officers have successfully transformed urban milieus into ever-expanding military camps. These spaces now host a permanent armed presence that exercises continuous surveillance over everyday life. Egypt's military business enterprises have tapped into the consumer habits of the rich and poor alike, reaping unaccountable profits and optimizing social command. Using both a political economy approach and a Foucauldian perspective, Militarizing the Nation traces the genealogy of the Egyptian military for those eager to know how such a controversial power gains and maintains control.
Topic:: Government, Military Affairs, and Arab Spring
Political Geography:: Middle East and Egypt
Publication Identifier:: 9780231542807
Publication Identifier Type:: ISBN

3209. Water as a basic human right within the Israeli-Palestinian con ict

Author:: Erika Weinthal
Publication Date:: 10-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: In the Middle East, water often crosses political borders; because water is a shared resource, its effective management demands cooperation among different users. In the absence of cooperation, conflict is likely. Indeed, conflict and cooperation over shared water has defined Israeli-Palestinian relations since 1967 when Israel gained full control over the Eastern and recharge zone of the western Mountain aquifer, as well as the southern Coastal aquifer. These resources, combined with water from the Sea of Galilee have provided about 60% of Israel’s water consumption. With the occupation of the West Bank and Gaza Strip in 1967, Israel placed restrictions on the drilling of new wells for the Palestinian population in the West Bank, and instead chose to supply water to Palestinian households through its national water company, Mekorot. The signing of the 1993 Declaration of Principles on Interim Self-Government Arrangements (Oslo I) and the 1995 Interim Agreement on the West Bank and Gaza Strip (Oslo II) between Israel and the Palestinian Liberation Organization offered an historic opportunity to move from conflict to cooperation over shared water resources. Unlike many other peace agreements, water was codified in the Oslo Accords, as it was understood that water sharing was of critical importance for human security, economic development, and regional cooperation. Specifically, the Oslo Accords called for the creation of a Joint Water Committee (JWC) during an interim period before the final status negotiations, comprised of equal number of members from Israel and the Palestinian Authority, whose functions would include the coordinated management of water resources and water and sewage systems in the West Bank. Oslo II, Article 40 on water and sewage recognized Palestinian water rights in the West Bank and the need to develop additional water supply. Oslo II also detailed specific water quantities to be allocated to the Palestinian population, mostly from the eastern Mountain aquifer in the West Bank.
Topic:: Development, Human Rights, Natural Resources, Water, Conflict, Negotiation, and Sanitation
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and West Bank

3210. The Evolving Terrorism Threat from Nixon to Trump

Author:: Edward Marks and Michael B. Kraft
Publication Date:: 09-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: The issues that faced the Obama administration and will face the Trump administration—as well as the basic policies and programs—had roots in previous generations, some of them going back to the 1970’s and President Richard Nixon’s administration. Many programs conceived and developed during previous administrations continued, evolved, and were expanded during subsequent administrations. These programs include antiterrorism training for American and foreign law enforcement officials, the interagency Counter Terrorism Financing (CTF) and Countering Violent Extremism (CVE) programs, and the ever pressing need for improved international cooperation and intelligence sharing. They are likely to continue, in one form or another, as ongoing efforts. This article is adapted from a draft of a forthcoming book: U.S Counterterrorism efforts, from Nixon to Bush. (CPC Press/Taylor&Francis Group).
Topic:: Science and Technology, History, Violent Extremism, Counter-terrorism, Islamic State, and 9/11
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, Syria, North America, and United States of America

3211. Making Peace in Syria: Economic Diplomacy

Author:: Abdallah Al Dardari
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: Aleppo is a landmark in the Syrian conflict and has become the strongest signal of the failure of the western approach to diplomacy and other means of influence to end the conflict. This failure calls for a dramatic change in the approach if we want to preserve Syria as one country, safeguard its diversity, and ensure the rebuilding of the nation. The moment fighting in Aleppo ends and the current government, along with the Russians and the Iranians, feel they have the upper hand in this conflict, the immediate goal and challenge is to rebuild. Yet, how do we deliver services and create jobs? How do we support reconstruction? How do we ensure stability after “military achievement”?
Topic:: Diplomacy, Economy, Political stability, Conflict, Syrian War, and Peace
Political Geography:: Russia, Iran, Middle East, Syria, and United States of America

3212. Authoritarian Backlash: A Comparison of Turkey & Venezuela

Author:: Robert Pearson
Publication Date:: 10-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: “Happy families are all alike; every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way.” This famous opening line from Leo Tolstoy’s Anna Karenina is important also for democracies. While Turkey and Venezuela are each unhappy in their own way, they also may share some common elements in their struggles for democracy that provide lessons.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Authoritarianism, Elections, Democracy, and Economy
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, South America, Venezuela, and United States of America

3213. Can Science Diplomacy Advance STEM Education Particularly for Women in the Middle East?

Author:: Steven G. Greenbaum and David P. Hajjar
Publication Date:: 06-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: In a world of diverse transnational priorities across the globe, the advancement of science is seen by many countries as a solution to promote a knowledge-based economy, yet few resources are actually committed to this policy. For example, countries in the Middle East face a range of social, political, economic and security challenges that are unparalleled in the world. Many of these countries are trying to manage their economies during declining oil and gas prices which have now had a negative impact on their ability to make local investments in science and technology. Unemployment is high, political upheaval is often at the core of civil war, and the last priority of government officials is the development of science and technology expertise. Except for Israel, most Middle East nations are underperforming in science in this region of the world where only 1% of their expenditures include research and development (R&D). Science diplomats and/or health attaches have tried to assist countries in the Middle East to address the short-falls in scientific and technological program development. These efforts have been welcomed, but the results have been marginal. One way to remedy the situation is for these countries to grow their scientific communities, and this includes the encouragement of a highly under-developed workforce, viz., women and ethnic minorities. Enabling this largely neglected and under-utilized intellectual resource to pursue careers in Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) is the focus of this article.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Education, Gender Issues, Science and Technology, and Women
Political Geography:: Middle East and United States of America

3214. Beyond the Basics: Holistic Humanitarian Assistance for Syrians

Author:: Margo Berends
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: Although Aleppo is now under the control of forces supporting the Syrian government and the city has been evacuated, it is but one city and the Syrian crisis is far from over. Millions have been displaced by the violence, either within Syria or across its borders, and the refugee crisis reverberates across the Middle East, Europe and beyond. While there has been much discussion of the refugee crisis, there has been limited coverage in mainstream American media of the needs of refugees and displaced people beyond the basics.
Topic:: Gender Issues, Humanitarian Aid, Non-Governmental Organization, Refugee Issues, Women, Displacement, and Public Policy
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Syria, Jordan, and United States of America

3215. We Are Here We Are Half The City We Live In

Author:: Esra Kaya Erdoğan
Publication Date:: 12-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: This policy brief is published in the framework of “Women’s Participation for Sustainable City” project under the umbrella project “Supporting Sustainable Cities” of TESEV funded by the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Liberty. No matter which measure of residential settlement one takes, women constitute around half the population everywhere in Turkey. Especially with regards urban areas with a smaller spatial scale, there is almost unanimous agreement that space-oriented policies concern women directly. It is important to keep these circumstances in mind in order to strengthen the political presence of women at the local level, and to pursue local policies with a woman-centered approach.
Topic:: Gender Issues, Governance, Women, Inequality, and Urban
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

3216. Equality Units As A Tool For Women’s Participation At The Local Level

Author:: Zelal Yalçın
Publication Date:: 12-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: This policy brief is published in the framework of “Women’s Participation for Sustainable City” project under the umbrella project “Supporting Sustainable Cities” of TESEV funded by the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Liberty.
Topic:: Gender Issues, Governance, Women, Inequality, and Urban
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

3217. Women in Municipalities, Municipality for Women

Author:: Ulaş Bayraktar
Publication Date:: 09-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: Regulatory reforms are not sufficient to increase the representation of women, examination of sociological causes is essential to better comprehend the reasons behind the low ratio of women representation. This report explores the relation between women representation and services provided for women in all metropolitan municipalities in Turkey. Both the gender roles and governance processes need to be analyzed together to understand this relationship. Furthermore, the quality of representation and services are examined in terms of gender awareness. While the findings of fieldwork in Aydın, Gaziantep, İstanbul, Konya and Ordu, and a detailed desk research of 11 cities identify the problems regarding gender awareness, they aim to provide concrete policy recommendations for future implementations.
Topic:: Gender Issues, Governance, Reform, Inequality, Representation, Urban, and Services
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

3218. Transitional Justice in the Middle East and North Africa

Author:: Center for International and Regional Studies
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for International and Regional Studies (CIRS), Georgetown University in Qatar
Abstract:: Following the ‘Arab Spring’ uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa, many had high hopes not only for democratization but also for transitional justice to address the myriad abuses that had taken place in the region, both during the uprisings and for decades prior to them. Despite these hopes, most of the transitions in the region have stalled, along with the possibility of transitional justice. This volume is the first to look at this process and brings together leading experts in the fields of human rights and transitional justice, and in the history, politics and justice systems of countries such as Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Algeria, Bahrain and Morocco. While these countries have diverse histories, political institutions, and experiences with accountability, most have experienced non-transition, stalled transition, or political manipulation of transitional justice measures, highlighting the limits of such mechanisms. These studies should inform reflection not only on the role of transitional justice in the region, but also on challenges to its operation more generally.
Topic:: Democratization, Human Rights, Law, and Arab Spring
Political Geography:: Middle East and North Africa

3219. After ISIS: How to Win the Peace in Iraq and Libya

Author:: Hayder al-Khoei, Ellie Geranmayeh, and Mattia Toaldo
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: ISIS has suffered significant setbacks in both Iraq and Libya with the battles for Mosul and Sirte representing potential turning-points. • Without a clear political strategy to guide post- ISIS efforts, these military gains could quickly be lost. Both countries could again become breeding grounds for conflict and extremism, exacerbating European security and migration challenges. This risk is especially high for Iraq given the conflict in neighbouring Syria. • The new US administration is likely to invest less energy than its predecessors in strengthening political orders which provide stability. European states must step up their own efforts
Topic:: International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:: Middle East and Global Focus

3220. The Kurds in a Volatile Middle East

Author:: Ofra Bengio
Publication Date:: 02-2017
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
Abstract:: The Kurds challenge the self-perceptions of the nation-states in which they reside: Turkey, Iran, Syria and Iraq; and they have played a crucial role in combatting Islamic State. This study analyzes the rivalry and interdependence among the four parts of Kurdistan as well as the dynamics of their relations with regional countries and the international community. With the entire region in a state of flux, will the Kurds fulfill their dream for a state or autonomous existence of their own?
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, War, Self Determination, Authoritarianism, and Democracy
Political Geography:: Middle East

3221. Qatar: The Limits of Nouveau Riche Diplomacy

Author:: Gil Feiler and Hayim Zeev
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
Abstract:: Under the leadership of Sheikh Hamad al-Thani (1995-2013), Qatar established itself as a regional mini superpower. It launched and subsidized the global media giant Al Jazeera, poured billions into its unrivalled liquefied natural gas infrastructure, made a successful bid for the 2022 FIFA World Cup, and diversified its economy through international acquisitions by its Qatari Investment Authority. This newfound wealth emboldened the emirate to attempt to broaden its diplomatic profile and extend its influence. And it is in this sphere that its maverick foreign policy, which at times spanned the world’s most fraught ideological lines, has led to increased tensions with its immediate neighbors and some unequivocal diplomatic disasters.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:: Middle East

3222. Khan Sheikhoun, Shayrat Air Base, and What Next?

Author:: Adam Garfinkle
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: By now the world knows that U.S. military forces for the first time since the onset of the Syrian civil war in 2011 have attacked regime targets. Plenty of the basic facts are known about what transpired about 18 hours ago, but a few important ones are not—at least not in the public domain. For example, we have only a very general Bomb Damage Assessment (BDA) report. This matters because Tomahawk cruise missiles are very accurate if “lite” weapons. Knowing what the four dozen or so missiles hit and missed, deliberately and otherwise, could tell us a lot about why the President, presumably with Secretary of Defense James Mattis’ guidance and concurrence, chose the lesser of three options presented at what has been described as a meeting of considerable length. That, in turn, could tell us if the intention ultimately is to coerce the Russians into coercing the Syrians to stop doing monstrous things to their own people, and possibly coercing them to support a compromise political settlement to the war; or if it’s just an Eff-You gesture designed only to relieve the sudden pressure of moral unction that unexpectedly came upon our new Commander-in Chief—who seemed to lurch from coldblooded Randian to “Godtalk” invoker of the American Civil Religion in the wink of an eye. In other words, knowing more about the target set would tell us whether there is any political strategy attached to the use of force, or not. Probably not.
Topic:: International Security and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: America, Middle East, and Syria

3223. The Campaign for Mosul: April 29-May 11, 2017

Author:: Patrick Martin
Publication Date:: 05-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:: Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) surged in northwest Mosul in a bid to clear the city prior to Ramadan, anticipated to begin on May 26. Emergency Response Division (ERD) and Federal Police (FP) units joined 9th and 15th Iraqi Army Division units in northwest Mosul on April 28. The combined forces recaptured the neighborhoods of Mushairfa and 30 Tamouz, and are fighting to seize the denser neighborhoods of Harmat, 17 Tamouz, and Hawi Kanisa as of publication. Meanwhile, Counter-Terrorism Services (CTS) recaptured three neighborhoods in western Mosul. ISF are unlikely to clear the city prior to Ramadan. ISIS claimed to launch attacks to retake two Old City gates, Bab al-Jadid and Bab al-Toub. ISIS will also continue to defend the Old City by conducting suicide attacks and attempting to draw fire on civilian gatherings. ISIS will concentrate its defenses around al-Nuri Great Mosque, where ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi appeared publicly in 2014.
Topic:: War
Political Geography:: Middle East

3224. ISIS Sanctuary

Author:: Alexandra Gutowski and Jesse Rose Dury-Agri
Publication Date:: 05-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:: U.S.-backed forces continue to advance on the major ISIS-held urban centers of Mosul, Iraq and Raqqa, Syria. Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) have encircled ISIS in Mosul’s Old City. The U.S.-backed, Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) captured Tabqa, a city adjacent to Raqqa that contains Syria’s largest dam. ISIS also lost terrain in southern Syria, as various factions of the Syrian opposition, including some with U.S. backing, cleared ISIS from positions in Suweida and the Qalamoun mountains. ISIS will attempt to offset these losses during its annual Ramadan offensive campaign, anticipated to begin around May 27. ISIS’s campaign in 2017 increasingly resembles its 2013 insurgent campaign; ISIS’s Ramadan plan will likely focus on synchronizing spectacular attacks across different locations for combined effect. Potential targets include religious sites, security forces, and oil infrastructure. ISIS may also conduct ground attacks in Salah ad Din, Anbar, and central Syria where ISIS retains latent combat capability.
Topic:: War and ISIS
Political Geography:: Middle East

3225. Russia and Iranian Basing In Syria

Author:: Chris Kozak, Genevieve Casagrande, and Tom Ramage
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:: Pro-regime basing data accurate through March 21, 2017. Syria Control of Terrain data accurate through April 3, 2017.
Topic:: War
Political Geography:: Middle East

3226. The Gulf: An unprecedented crisis and major repercussions

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 06-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: On 5 June 2017, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt, in marked succession, cut diplomatic relations with Qatar. Within a matter of hours, it became clear that this was not simply a move to sever ties, but a plan for a full embargo, an unprecedented step at a time of peace between these nations. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain blocked flights to Qatar, closed land and sea borders, and ordered Qatari citizens out of their countries while calling on their own nationals to leave Qatar. The same day, Maldives, Mauritius (though it later denied the news), the Libyan Tobruk-based government (which is not recognised internationally), and the Yemeni government based in Riyadh followed suit and cut ties with Qatar, unable to resist Saudi pressure. The next day, Jordan downgraded diplomatic relations with Qatar and revoked the licence of Al Jazeera’s bureau in Amman, while Mauritania severed diplomatic relations with Qatar. Mauritius, in an official statement, denied it had cut ties, raising questions of whether some party took the initiative on behalf of the Mauritian government. The actions taken at dawn on 5 June were the culmination of an unprecedented, anti-Qatar media blitz initiated by Emirati, Saudi, Bahraini and Egyptian media on the evening of 23 May. The campaign intensified until it assumed official imprimatur with the decision to cut ties and blockade Qatar. What, then, is happening to relations between countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)? After Gulf leaders came together in a scene of friendship, cooperation and solidarity during US President Donald Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, why are relations between three GCC states and Qatar deteriorating so rapidly and in such unprecedented fashion? Was there an immediate cause that spurred Saudi Arabia and its partners to take this stance, or were these actions planned in advance? Is this simply a fleeting crisis in relations between GCC states, or could the break persist?
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East

3227. The Battle of Western Mosul: Stakes and prospects

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: This paper reviews the importance of western Mosul to all parties in the conflict: the Iraqi forces and their allies, on the one hand, and the Islamic State’s forces, on the other, and the obstacles to any of these parties resolving the conflict. It also touches on the extent of their forces and the clear dominance of the offensive forces, and it discusses the military strategies for the battle and potential outcomes in addition to the available options for the Islamic State (IS). It anticipates an end to the fight in favour of the Iraqi forces within a few weeks if the battle and its results progress at a similar pace to that of its first week. This will depend on any unaccounted for variables during the battle that would change the equation on the ground. It concludes by discussing the available options for IS after the battle ends, with the expectation that IS will fight until the end; while its commanders will inevitability lose the battle, this will not eliminate threats to security and stability in Iraq in the foreseeable future.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Civil War, and International Security
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

3228. The Women in Daesh: Deconstructing Complex Gender Dynamics in Daesh Recruitment Propaganda

Author:: The Carter Center
Publication Date:: 05-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Carter Center
Abstract:: Since its inception, Daesh has been successfully recruiting women across national and ideological lines to assume key positions in advancing the organization’s objectives. According to recent estimates, out of 31,000 fighters within Daesh territories, almost one-fifth, roughly 6,200, are women. Yet, to date, research and policy focus on women’s involvement in Daesh has been scant. Several media accounts that have covered female participation tend to be alarmingly reductionist in their description of the roles women play in Daesh. These reports primarily categorize women as either passive victims, “Jihadi brides,” or subsidiary supporters of male guardians with negligible influence. This approach not only ignores the multiplicity of roles played by women to expand Daesh’s ideological and operational agenda, but also oversimplifies the motivations behind their decisions to join Daesh. Just like their male counterparts, women are complex human beings with conflicting aspirations, ideological leanings, and life struggles that inform the choices they make.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Gender Issues, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East and Global Focus

3229. Weekly Conflict Summary

Author:: The Carter Center
Publication Date:: 05-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Carter Center
Abstract:: During the reporting period, elements of an Astana de-escalation plan were enacted while pro-government forces advanced in Hama and the Eastern Ghouta region of Damascus. Opposition infighting in Eastern Ghouta and Idleb appears to have stopped for the time being. Fighting in and around Daraa city remained high this week, and both opposition and the predominantly Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) continued to take territory from ISIS.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Civil War
Political Geography:: Middle East

3230. Weekly Conflict Summary

Author:: The Carter Center
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Carter Center
Abstract:: During the reporting period, opposition forces advanced once more against ISIS fighters in the southeastern desert of Syria, opposition forces fought with one another once again in the Eastern Ghouta area of rural Damascus, and the predominantly Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) continued to advance against ISIS in Tabqa city west of Raqqa. Additionally, pro-government forces advanced against feuding opposition forces in Eastern Damascus, and international and pro-government forces were deployed within YPG-held territory following recent exchanges of fire between Turkey and Kurdish forces.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: Middle East

3231. Women and Peace Operations: The Achievement of the Italian Mission in Herat

Author:: Paola Sartori and Alessandra Scalia
Publication Date:: 05-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The research that forms the basis of this study aims to address women’s roles within peace operations, as well as their contribution to security and peace-building. Based on Italy’s contribution to the NATO-led missions – the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) and, currently, Resolute Support (RS) – the subject of the analysis is Afghanistan, and particularly Herat Province. The research e ort is speci cally aimed at assessing the impact of the civil–military cooperation (CIMIC) initiatives implemented by Italian troops in Herat, with a speci c focus on gender and Afghan women. The rst part of this paper addresses the theoretical framework on women’s participation in stabilization and reconstruction e orts. It introduces concepts such as gender analysis and gender mainstreaming, and, consequently, the bene ts of focusing on gender when carrying out CIMIC initiatives within peace operations. The second part focuses on the CIMIC activities implemented by the Italian contingent in Herat Province. The concluding section of the paper provides some “food for thought”, aimed at contributing to further enhancing the e ectiveness of the CIMIC projects carried out by the Italian military and their related e ects.
Topic:: Gender Issues and International Security
Political Geography:: Middle East

3232. Will Low-Cost Terror Financing Spread in the Middle East?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The international community’s e orts have recently succeeded in reducing the sources of funding of many terror organizations in the Middle East. ISIS is one instance, where the military operations launched by a US- led global coalition since September 2014, have signi cantly reduced the terrorist group’s funds generated from oil sales and illicit trade and caused huge losses.
Topic:: Terrorism, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East

3233. Repercussions of Ammar al-Hakim’s withdrawal from Iraq’s Islamic Supreme Council

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Ammar al-Hakim’s announcement on July 24, 2017 that he is stepping down as the leader of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) came after generation- al con icts surfaced between a number of the Coun- cil’s senior gures, who had visited Tehran to demand that he should be pressured over his reliance on the youth. Moreover, al-Hakim himself rejected attempts by senior members of the council to assume govern- ment positions, and even sought to build unique rela- tions with Arab and Western countries by presenting himself as an acceptable moderate Shiite gure. The outgoing leader is preparing for the upcoming elec- tions to be held across Iraq.
Topic:: International Relations, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East

3234. Extra-territorial Repercussions of ISIS’ Attack on Iraqi Embassy in Kabul

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: ISIS appears to be planning to attack the interests of some states that are in- volved in the war against it. The terror group’s recent assault was conducted in retaliation for its defeat in Mosul, liberated on July 10, 2017. That is evi- denced in ISIS’ quick claim of responsi- bility of the attack on the Iraqi Embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan on July 31, 2017.
Topic:: International Relations, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East

3235. What are the Implications of the Palestinian Issue for Turkey-Israel Relations?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Turkey-Israel relations have recently been caught in a new stage of political and media confrontations between the two countries over the recent developments at al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem, triggered by Israel’s installation of metal detectors at electronic gates to control access to the sanctuary. The resulting tensions prompted speculations that a new crisis is in the making that is rem- iniscent of the six-year diplomatic rift triggered by the 2010 Israeli raid on the Turkish- agged aid vessel Mavi Marmara, o the blockaded Gaza Strip, leaving ten Turks dead. That is despite the fact that the two countries renormalized their ties returning ambassadors to their posts and build- ing strong economic relations.
Topic:: International Security
Political Geography:: Middle East

3236. What is Iran’s Approach to US-North Korea Crisis?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The escalating crisis between the United States and North Korea is of special importance for Iran. Firstly, the US Administration of President Donald Trump has designated both Iran and North Korea as an imminent threat to the national security of the United States. The approach builds on the administration of former president George W. Bush’s repeated labelling of Iran and North Korea, as well as Iraq, as key rogue states of the so-called axis of evil, who sponsor terrorism and seek to ac- quire weapons of mass destruction.
Topic:: International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:: Middle East

3237. Why did Mogherini Attend Rouhani’s Inauguration?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: European states seek to increase the chances of maintaining the implementation of the nuclear agreement, also known as the Joint Comprehen- sive Plan of Action (JCPOA), concluded on July 14, 2017 between Iran and the P5+1 group of world powers, which includes the European Union, France as well as Germany. The bid is especially driven by the European view that a collapse of the deal would in ict grave consequences on their interests. However, the European bid is facing no easy hurdles. While the United States is keen to impose new sanctions on Iran over its ballistic missile program, Iran is similarly adamant about continuing this program as well as exploiting the nuclear deal to expand its in infuence in the region through backing terrorist organizations and establishing relations with non-state actors.
Topic:: International Relations, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Europe and Middle East

3238. What are the Implications of “Militia Wars” on Regional Security?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The raging war between Hezbollah and al-Nus- ra-Front in Arsal region raises several questions about militia wars, their features, mechanisms and outcomes. Such concerns have been raised especially after the relatively swift and decisive battle, which ended with a truce between the two parties sponsored by Lebanese General Se- curity and International Red Cross. Under the truce, al-Nusra Front militants and their families were evacuated from the Lebanese Arsal to Syria, in addition to the exchange of hostages between the parties. This was not the rst war raging be- tween armed militias in Syria, Iraq or Libya, as such kind of war has become common in recent times, especially in countries where ideologically disparate militias ght over spheres of in uence.
Topic:: International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East

3239. What Restricts Shifts in the Political Track of Syria’s Crisis?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Current data on the political and military situation in Syria indicate that the military as- pect remains the dominant factor in the crisis due to the faltering political track at Geneva and Astana. Nonetheless, significant political changes that developed recently cannot be underestimated in determining the future of the crisis.
Topic:: International Relations, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

3240. Significance of the new Kurdish arrangements in northern Syria

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The Kurdistan Democratic Union party (PYD) led by Saleh Musallam continues its ef- forts and takes new executive actions with the aim of turning the federal system, an- nounced on 17 March 2016 in areas under its control in northern Syria (Rojava regions) into reality. The previous step taken by PYD was preparing a draft Federal Constitution composed of 85 articles stipulating that the constitution is a social contract for the dem- ocratic federal Rojava, and considering the city of Qamishli as the capital and center of the federation.
Topic:: International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:: Middle East

3241. How Is SDF Dealing with Preparations for the Battle for Deir Ezzor?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The so-called Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) is making steady progress on the ground in Raqqa, ISIS’ main stronghold in Syria. The alliance of militias recently announced that they retook 70% of the city from the terrorist group following a successful plan to divide the city into an eastern and western zone and storm the city from both sides. The SDF militants advancing from the eastern and western parts of the city linked up for the first time on August 11 prevent- ing ISIS from reaching the Euphrates River and keeping its fighters with civilians who remain besieged by both groups.
Topic:: Democratization, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

3242. Alternative Alliances Why Is Hamas Seeking Stronger Relations with Iran?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The Islamic Resistance Movement (more commonly known as Hamas) has recently intensified its efforts to enhance its relations with Iran, especially after President Hassan Rouhani was elected for a second term. It also seeks to invest favorable official attitudes inside Iran where most main- stream political parties are urging for what they believe is necessary support to some organizations operating across the region, including the occupied Palestinian Territories, and resume full- fledged relations with Hamas.
Topic:: International Cooperation, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

3243. From Reform to Revolution A Schism in the Muslim Brotherhood and the Rise of Homegrown Jihadism in Mainland Egypt

Author:: Alexander Velez-Green
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: The United States has long looked to Egypt as a key partner in the Middle East. Egypt’s adherence to the Camp David Accords is fundamental to Israeli security. Cairo has also been a key player in the Israeli–Palestinian peace process for many years. In addition, the Egyptian state has played an essential role in supporting the U.S. fight against global jihadism. Its provision of reliable access to the Suez Canal, Egyptian airspace, and intelligence sharing directly enables U.S. operations against al Qaeda and the Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) across the Middle East. That is not to mention the blood and treasure that Egypt itself has spent to defeat terrorist groups operating in the Sinai Peninsula and elsewhere.
Topic:: International Relations, International Security, and Political stability
Political Geography:: Middle East

3244. Gray Zones in the Middle East

Author:: Nicholas Heras
Publication Date:: 09-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and trans-Sahara regions are undergoing a period of instability and state collapse, with active civil wars raging in four of the most important countries in the region: Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Libya. As witnessed during the Arab uprisings of 2010–2011, the MENA region has begun to grapple with the once and future challenges of instability as the regional population grows and skews younger, economies stagnate and start to collapse, and resources become scarcer. U.S. national security policy toward the MENA and trans-Sahara regions is at a point of high uncertainty, with a new administration developing strategies to address the security threats to the United States and its partner nations being caused by the region’s civil wars.
Topic:: International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:: Middle East

3245. Three Generations of Jihadism in Iraqi Kurdistan

Author:: Adel Bakawan
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: Iraqi Kurdistan, previously known as a secure and stable region amidst the chaotic and shaken Middle East, was struck by a wave of attacks in 2016. Between September and December of that year, there were five recorded terrorist operations led by 249 Kurdish jihadists rallied by the Islamic State (ISIS) or Daesh, of which 47 were killed and 43 were arrested by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). In fact, Iraqi Kurdistan, with a population of five million inhabitants, has supplied ISIS with 2,000 jihadists. Since the launch of the Mosul offensive on 17th October 2016, Kurdistan has been preparing itself, like many other countries in the region and a number of European countries, to face its worst nightmare: the Kurdish jihadists’ return to the country. Although a series of threats weigh upon the leaders of the KRG, such as social and economic crises, political division between rival parties; Masoud Barzani’s Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and Jalal Talabani’s Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), the prospect of a new civil war, and the intervention of neighbouring countries – the return of the Kurds of Daesh is currently the most troublesome.
Topic:: Terrorism and International Security
Political Geography:: Middle East

3246. How has Qatar Fended Amidst a Sociopolitical and Economic Blockade by its Neighbours?

Author:: Thembisa Fakude
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: The haphazard nature of the political campaign by the anti-Qatar forces demonstrated serious political immaturity and the over-estimation of the power of money in politics and shaping world opinion.
Topic:: International Political Economy
Political Geography:: Middle East

3247. Counterterrorism and Neo-Machiavellism in International Relations

Author:: Dr. Mohammed Cherkaoui
Publication Date:: 09-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: The new approach of the U.S. foreign policy toward the Middle East has increasingly pivoted around possible ways of fighting radical groups with various denominations.
Topic:: International Relations and Counter-terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East

3248. Europe and the Gulf Crisis

Author:: Stasa Salacanin
Publication Date:: 09-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: The GCC crisis has put all international actors, including Europe, in a complicated position, and as ever louder calls for the greater engagement in the mediation process comes at challenging times as Europe is facing countless problems at home.
Topic:: International Relations and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Europe and Middle East

3249. Saudi Vision 2030 and the Consequences of the Gulf Crisis

Author:: Naser al-Tamimi
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: The Saudi government has begun an ambitious process of economic reforms, but internal resistance and external disturbances – worsened by the Gulf crisis – are increasing costs and may lead to its failure.
Topic:: International Political Economy
Political Geography:: Middle East

3250. The Gulf Crisis: Demonising Qatar through Fabrication

Author:: Dr. Mohamed Erraji
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: This paper reviews the role of media fabrication and propaganda in the current political crisis in the Gulf. Propagandists have deliberately created a new political reality to demonise Qatari politics and political leaders with a detailed political approach to create a prefabricated reality.
Topic:: International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:: Middle East

3251. Making Sense of Turkey’s Strategy towards the new Gulf Crisis

Author:: Murat Yeşiltaş
Publication Date:: 06-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: Turkey's current strategic move is it is a continuation of Turkey’s new vision for regional politics within the context of the new regional geopolitical realities.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East

3252. Qatar’s battle for LNG market share

Author:: Stasa Salacanin
Publication Date:: 06-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: In 2005, Qatar imposed a self-moratorium on future gas developments in the North Field, but has recently lifted it in defence of the country’s leading LNG market share as new global players rapidly expand their production.
Topic:: International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East

3253. Political and Social Change in Egypt: Preludes to the January Uprising

Author:: Andrea Teti
Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Transformations Project, University of Aberdeen
Abstract:: The Arab Transformations Project is an international research project operating within the European Commission’s FP7 framework. The project looks comparatively at attitudes and behaviours in the context of the social, political and economic transformations taking place across Middle East and North Africa since February 2011. The countries covered are Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Jordan, and Iraq.
Topic:: International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East

3254. MENA Population’s Perceptions of Key Challenges, International Context and the Role of the European Union

Author:: Andrea Teti, Pamela Abbott, Paolo Maggiolini, and Valeria Talbot
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Transformations Project, University of Aberdeen
Abstract:: Survey data from the ArabTrans 2014 survey contains a unique battery of questions pertaining to the perception of the European Union. This report builds on those questions to analyse perceptions of the EU, its development cooperation programmes, its promotion of democracy, the appropriateness of its response to the Arab Uprisings, and the perception of the EU as an international actor. Overall, the data suggests low levels of awareness and relatively negative opinions of the EU’s actions both in general and in the specific context of its response to the Arab Uprisings. However, respondents’ preferences also suggest avenues for policy development for the Union such that it might simultaneously achieve its interests and meet the demands of MENA populations. Throughout, the paper also takes note of specific patterns and conditions found in individual countries which present particular challenges for the EU.
Topic:: International Relations, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Europe and Middle East

3255. Gender Equality and MENA Women’s Empowerment in the Aftermath of the 2011 Uprisings

Author:: Pamela Abbott
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Transformations Project, University of Aberdeen
Abstract:: The MENA countries which this Project has considered form part of a ‘band’ across the map from Morocco in the West to perhaps India in the East which is profoundly patriarchal in its norms and values, treating half the population like children where they are not thought of more as property. Such treatment also brings social cohesion into question, however: women cannot sensibly be part of a consensus about fair dealing and equal treatment when even the laws are not fair with respect to them. The main conclusion of this Report is that there is that there is little support among either men or women in MENA for gender equality and the empowerment of women. Women are much more supportive than men, although even among women support is low. The gap in support between men and women is noticeably larger in Morocco, Jordan and Iraq and lowest in Libya, with Tunisia and Egypt lying between. The more educated, the better off and those living in urban areas are more supportive and those who support all status law being based on shari’a are less supportive. As in other research, age makes no difference, indicating that young people are no more supportive than older ones and confirming that there has been no generational shift to more liberal values. The differences between countries are statistically significant, with Iraq being the most supportive, closely followed by Morocco and Tunisia, and Libya the least supportive closely followed by Egypt. Jordan lies between the two groups. This finding is much as would be expected. Egypt has long been recognised as one of the countries most restrictive of women’s rights in the MENA region and the information emerging from Libya since the fall of Gadhafi indicates very conservative attitudes to women’s rights. Tunisia and Morocco have been widely reported as having more progressive attitudes to the promotion of gender equality and the empowerment of women. Iraq is not frequently mentioned in the literature as having progressive attitudes, but until the new Constitution of 2005 it had some of the most progressive status law in the region. The analysis suggests that since the beginning of the 21st Century attitudes towards gender equality and the empowerment of women have become more conservative in Egypt and less conservative in Morocco and Iraq. In Tunisia support for personal status law being enacted in accordance with shari’a has increased noticeably, possibly possiby to the influence of Political Islam in the country since 2011. The findings also confirm those of more recent
Topic:: Gender Issues and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East

3256. EU Policy Impact and Public Perception in the Mena Region

Author:: Pamela Abbott and Andrea Teti
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Transformations Project, University of Aberdeen
Abstract:: This working paper considers relations between the region and the European Union, something on which the ArabTrans survey was specifically designed to offer information. We supplement the ArabTrans survey by drawing on data from Waves II (2010/11) and III (2013) of the Arab Barometer and from the Gallup World Poll for 2011 and 2014. The Report considers what impact the policies pursued by the EU and its member countries have had on the lives of people living in four countries in the region - Egypt, Jordan, Morocco and Tunisia - and how they view the EU and its involvement with their countries. It considers ordinary people’s attitudes to the EU and its policies but also discusses what ordinary people want and the extent to which EU policies address these concerns.
Topic:: Foreign Policy and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East

3257. What do 'The People' (Still) Want? Conceptions of Democracy. Arab Transformations Policy Brief No 1

Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Arab Transformations Project, University of Aberdeen
Abstract:: EU policy towards its Southern Neighbour- hood aims to ensure the security of Member States and is underpinned by an assumption of a shared interest in democracy, security, and prosperity through economic liberalisation. It sees the main way of achieving these aims as promoting Western-style liberal democracy as a political system capable of providing peace and stability. Evidence from public opinion survey research shows this ambition is supported by citizens of Arab countries, where public opinion polls for over a decade report strong support for democracy. However, these citizens do not share the EU’s procedural conception of democracy, a conception in which civil and political rights are decoupled from – and prioritised over – social and economic rights. The Arab Transformations survey carried out in 2014 in six Arab states (Morocco, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Jordan, Iraq) suggests few people demanded this brand of democracy. Furthermore, most people thought the EU has not done a good job of supporting transitions to democracy, nor did they have much appetite for EU involvement in the domestic politics of their countries.
Topic:: International Relations, International Security, International Affairs, and Democracy
Political Geography:: Middle East

3258. Perceptions of the EU in MENA Public Opinion. Arab Transformations Policy Brief 2

Author:: Andrea Teti and Pamela Abbott
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Arab Transformations Project, University of Aberdeen
Abstract:: The EU views itself as a normative actor and stresses the importance of working in partnership with its Southern Neighbourhood in reaching its intertwined goals of security, stability, inclusive development and shared prosperity, and of strengthening democratisation, human rights and the rule of law across the Mediterranean. The Arab Transformations Project public opinion survey carried out in 2014 in six countries – Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia – sheds some light on this on how citizens viewed the EU and its involvement with their own countries, as well as the extent to which they thought EU policies addressed their concerns.
Topic:: International Affairs and International Development
Political Geography:: Europe and Middle East

3259. Socio-economic Inequality and the Failure of Development Strategies for the Middle East. Arab Transformations Policy Brief 3

Author:: Andrea Teti and Pamela Abbott
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Arab Transformations Project, University of Aberdeen
Abstract:: The main drivers of the Arab Uprisings were economic grievances and a perceived growth in inequalities. Poor economic growth and lack of inclusive policies are the underlying causes of insecurity in the region The main concerns of people in the MENA are economic security and corruption. People think that the best way in which the EU can help their countries in the wake of the Uprisings is with support for inclusive economic development. The EU needs to develop its policies so that they bring economic benefits to the countries in the region as well as to the EU the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme under grant agreement no #320214 Summary: The main drivers of the Arab Uprisings were economic grievances and a perceived growth in inequalities. Poor economic growth and lack of inclusive policies are the underlying causes of insecurity in the region The main concerns of people in the MENA are economic security and corruption. People think that the best way in which the EU can help their countries in the wake of the Uprisings is with support for inclusive economic development. The EU needs to develop its policies so that they bring economic benefits to the countries in the region as well as to the EU
Topic:: International Political Economy
Political Geography:: Middle East

3260. Against the Tide: Why Gender Attitudes Remain Profoundly Conservative in Arab Countries: Arab Transformations Policy Brief No 5

Author:: Andrea Teti and Pamela Abbott
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Arab Transformations Project, University of Aberdeen
Abstract:: The Arab region retains deeply conservative gender attitudes against the trend of moves to more liberal values generally across the globe.  Arab citizens say they support gender equality but women are generally treated as second class citizens especially in family law.  Islam is often blamed for gender conservatism, but the systematic repression of political alternatives to Islamism and often-perfunctory way in which women's equality agendas are treated by autocratic regimes are more important.  Efforts to promote gender equality and the empowerment of women need to be led by Arab women and men and incorporate Islamic feminists as well as secular ones
Topic:: Gender Issues and International Political Economy
Political Geography:: Middle East

3261. The Integrity of States: Corruption in the EU's Southern Neighbourhood. Arab Transformations Policy Brief No 6

Author:: Andrea Teti and Pamela Abbott
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Arab Transformations Project, University of Aberdeen
Abstract:: Corruption is the antithesis of the Rule of Law and erodes the discourse of fairness and mutual consideration which is necessary for peace, prosperity and socioeconomic development. It increases the risk of state capture and resistance to change by the political elite. It results in poor public management and resource allocation and an inequitable distribution of resources and national wealth. It is a problem not just for individual countries but also for harmonious diplomatic and economic relations. The European Union’s Neighbourhood Policy is intended to help its near neighbours develop into a sustainable economic, social and political stability. At the same time the EU deploys normative leadership to promote a social and political security based on a respect for human rights, a dependence on the Rule of Law and a style of governance which can listen to its people and can face replacement, if need be, without the need for armed confrontation. For this, the extent of corruption in MENA is a serious problem. Keywords: Corruption, Middle East, Arab Spring
Topic:: Corruption and International Law
Political Geography:: Europe and Middle East

3262. Iraq After ISIS: Continued Conflict or Rebuilding Beyond Ethno-Sectarian Identity? Arab Transformations Policy Brief No 7

Author:: Andrea Teti, Pamela Abbott, and Munqith Dagher
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Arab Transformations Project, University of Aberdeen
Abstract:: With ISIS' influence declining, Iraq faces the challenge of rebuilding both its economy and its political system. • Amidst the devastation left by conflict, Iraq's political leaders have the opportunity to address the internal divisions which made ISIS possible. • Any post-conflict settlement must take into account the population's concerns and priorities. • Sectarian identity is less influential than commonly assumed in shaping people's political priorities: often more important are local conditions, particularly regarding security, the economy, and migration. • Ignoring popular priorities risks undermining post-ISIS attempts to build a stable country, with knock-on effects at a regional level.
Topic:: International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East

3263. What Drives Migration from the Middle East? Why People Want to Leave Arab States

Author:: Andrea Teti and Pamela Abbott
Publication Date:: 06-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Arab Transformations Project, University of Aberdeen
Abstract:: Data from the Arab Transformations public opinion survey provides strong indications about the nature of population movements from Middle East and North African (MENA) countries. As such they are crucial in designing responsive, evidence-based policy. ArabTrans data shows those who have considered migrating tend to be young, male, and with higher levels of education (the notable exception being Libya). In all countries surveyed, young people are more likely to have considered migrating; in nearly all countries the economy is the main driver of migration; and although a substantial portion of those considering migration think of a permanent move, large proportions are considering only temporary migration. This underscores the importance of economic policies which actually deliver inclusive growth and social cohesion. Two major conclusions can be drawn from this data: first, that the economic causes and strong temporary dimension of migration provide EU Member states with opportunities to reap the benefits of migration, both to the economy as a whole and to welfare systems in particular; second, that MENA countries of origin present significant internal differentiation suggesting policy should reflect specific national circumstances. The single major obstacle to public discussion and designing evidence-based policies which maximise the benefits of migration to both host countries and countries of origin is a political context which conflates and securitizes refugees and migrants. Paradoxically, the tone of this debate and the way policy is designed and implemented may have much to do with any socio-political polarisation of migrants in host countries
Topic:: Migration and International Security
Political Geography:: Middle East

3264. Post-Conflict Re-Construction in MENA: Previous Experiences and Stakeholder's Inclusive Involvement in the Future Reconstruction of Libya, Syria and Iraq

Author:: Amaia Goenaga
Publication Date:: 09-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: The European Institute of the Mediterranean (IEMed) and Casa Árabe, with the collaboration of ICEX (Spain Trade and Investment), organised in 2016 an international conference entitled "Post-conflict re-construction in MENA: Previous experiences and stakeholders’ inclusive involvement in the future reconstruction of Libya, Syria and Iraq". The aim was to tackle the different aspects and challenges related to reconstruction in post-conflict countries in the region. Given the dimension and complexity of the subject, the conference was structured in a double meeting, bringing together stakeholders, academics and experts. The first one took place in Barcelona on the 11 April 2016 and the second one on the 19 September 2016 in Madrid. This document gathers and assesses the main conclusions and recommendations reached in both meetings. Thus issues tackled have been grouped into five main lines of discussion, which are divided into epigraphs devoted to some key concrete issues:
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Conflict Prevention
Political Geography:: Middle East

3265. Modi: Three Years On

Author:: Husain Haqqani and Arpana Pandey
Publication Date:: 09-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: arendra Modi led the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to power during the May 2014 elections, promising radical changes. The party’s electoral manifesto outlined numerous problems that threatened Indian society, while promising to protect social values and enact “urgent changes” in the economy, agriculture, energy, education, and governance.1 Observers from around the world hailed the BJP’s victory as a success, and believed that a pro-business government assuring fundamental changes would tap into India’s unfulfilled economic potential.
Topic:: International Relations
Political Geography:: Middle East

3266. Protecting Syrian Civilians: The Road Not Taken

Author:: Frederic C. Hof
Publication Date:: 12-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:: During 70 months of chaos in Syria, the United States had protected not one Syrian civilian from the homicidal rampages of Bashar al-Assad and his remorseless regime. Yes, America had come militarily to the aid of Syrian Kurds besieged by ISIS (ISIL, Daesh, Islamic State). Yet the United States had protected no one in Syria from an Iranian client regime’s campaign of civilian mass homicide. The consequences were profoundly negative for Syrians, their neighbors, Western Europe, and the United States. And they were avoidable. The road taken by the Obama administration unintentionally but inevitably facilitated a humanitarian and geopolitical disaster. The road not taken would have required complicating, frustrating, slowing, and perhaps even stopping the mass murder of defenseless civilians. To be sure: it would not have been easy. But its avoidance has been catastrophic. Indeed, nothing about Syria has been easy: no silver bullets to fire, no fairy dust to sprinkle, and no magic potions to ingest. Choices between bad and worse have dominated from the beginning. They have grown starker and uglier over time largely because of the road taken.
Topic:: Islamic State, Syrian War, Civilians, Atrocities, and Protection
Political Geography:: Middle East, Syria, and United States of America

3267. Critical Junctures in United States Policy toward Syria: An Assessment of the Counterfactuals

Author:: Mona Yacoubian
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:: More than any other foreign policy crisis during the Obama administration’s eight years, the Syrian conflict has engendered enormous debate about what the United States might have done differently: Could this catastrophe have been avoided? In particular, might different decisions at critical junctures in US policy debates have diminished the level of killing and atrocities? This paper explores these questions based primarily on interviews with former US officials and nongovernmental Syria experts.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Syrian War, Atrocities, Chemical Weapons, Bashar al-Assad, Containment, and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:: Middle East, Syria, North America, and United States of America

3268. Subsidizing Rebels, Taxing Atrocities: Saving Lives in Civil Wars

Author:: Andrew Kydd
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:: The Syrian civil war has lasted over five years and has resulted in the deaths of over 400,000 civilians. The relatively restrained policy of the US toward Syria has sometimes been criticized as inadequate. Would a limited intervention motivated by humanitarian concerns have reduced the death toll at an acceptable cost? Limited intervention would affect the conflict primarily by strengthening the rebel side and raising the cost to the regime of attacking civilians. I show using a game theoretic model that fostering a balance of power between the government and the rebels would only lead the government to commit more atrocities and prolong the war. Raising the cost to the government of committing atrocities, however, could be beneficial under certain conditions. I then discuss four policy options considered during the Obama administration and assess their likely effects.
Topic:: Civil War, Syrian War, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), Atrocities, Game Theory, and Intervention
Political Geography:: Middle East, Syria, and United States of America

3269. An Agent-Based Model of Counterfactual Opportunities for Reducing Atrocities in Syria, 2011 - 2014

Author:: Ian Lustick, Miguel Garces, and Thomas McCauley
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:: Computer-assisted agent-based modeling (ABM) allows us to examine not just history as it happened but history as it could have happened. This ability opens opportunities for causal analysis of variations in atrocities against civilians or in the conditions believed to make civilian atrocities much more likely. Once different pathways into the future from the same set of antecedent conditions are traceable, analysis of large numbers of stochastically perturbed model runs can aid in the evaluation of alternative causal stories. This technique has the potential to test arguments about which factors may have been crucial in determining outcomes, which junctures were critical, and which mitigation strategies would have been preferable, for what reasons. But in applying available ABM simulation technology to the problem of assessing opportunities for mitigating threats of large-scale civilian atrocities, how practical, direct, and useful would the results be? This general question was translated, in this pilot project, into an exploration of the extent to which an agent-based model of Syria, tuned to 2010, could illuminate the likely effects of plausible policies that the US government could have enacted or contributed to at critical junctures in the Syrian conflict. As described in part 2 of this report, we built an agent-based model of Syria tuned to 2010, allowing us to experiment with the state space of Syria’s past from 2011 to 2015. A key objective was to assess the reasonableness of a variety of contemporaneous policy prescriptions made by decision makers and strategies suggested by informed observers. The counterfactual scenarios for mitigating civilian atrocities in Syria were identified with critical junctures— episodes or states of affairs, at particular points in time, that have been identified as potentially significant bifurcation points leading toward or away from conditions liable to produce high levels of civilian atrocities. Particular attention was paid to the manner in which those junctures were or could have been influenced by US policy choices. However, given the limits of the model as a pilot project, which focused on Syria and not on the region or the world, considerable variation exists—across the five critical junctures examined—in the extent to which US policies (or their absence) can be understood as being potentially implicated in the path the “real” Syria followed.
Topic:: History, Syrian War, Atrocities, Counterfactuals, and Models
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

3270. Evaluating Counterfactual US Policy Action in Syria, 2011-16: A Review of Empirical Evidence from Related Cases

Author:: Daniel Solomon
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:: In public and policy debates about the US response to the conflict in Syria, comparisons to past responses to international cases of mass atrocity have become a fixture. In these debates, analysts use lessons from those past responses to forecast the likely consequences of US policy action in Syria or to speculate about the counterfactual consequences of actions not taken at various junctures. Comparisons to historical cases of international response provide important mental models for policy makers seeking to use specific tools and strategies to respond to the risk or occurrence of mass atrocities.2 For example, Barack Obama has said that his unwillingness to pursue military action against the government of Bashar al-Assad in response to its use of chemical weapons in August 2013 resulted in part from his dismay at the instability that followed the military operation that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) led against Muammar Gaddafi’s forces in Libya in 2011.3 For Obama, the risk that even limited military action in Syria could become “another Libya” was enough to remove a range of possible military options from consideration. Which counterfactual US actions, if any, might have prevented or mitigated violence against civilians in Syria? This paper uses a systematic review of empirical studies of international responses to mass atrocities and related phenomena to evaluate these contemporary debates about US policy action in Syria.4 The purpose of this review is to evaluate plausible alternative avenues the US may have taken to prevent or mitigate mass atrocities against civilians in Syria. This analysis centers on “minimal rewrite” counterfactuals, in which a different policy action at a specific, time-bounded juncture in the US policy process on Syria might have led to a different outcome in violence against civilians. “Minimal rewrite” counterfactuals are opposed to socalled miracle world counterfactuals, which would require significant changes to the structural or contextual conditions that shape US policy.5 The paper centers on three policy actions that the US government debated—and in some cases implemented, to a limited degree—at various junctures since the conflict began in March 2011: (a) lethal support to the armed Syrian opposition, (b) limited strikes against Syrian government targets, and (c) no-fly zones. Although those US officials sometimes debated these options during overlapping junctures, the paper addresses opposition support and the direct military options as separate phenomena. The paper uses a review of historical, qualitative and quantitative studies of related cases and policy actions to assess the extent to which these actions may have affected the scope and severity of subsequent atrocities in Syria.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Syrian War, Atrocities, Counterfactuals, and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:: Middle East, Syria, North America, and United States of America

3271. A Survey of Expert Judgments on the Effects of Counterfactual US Actions on Civilian Fatalities in Syria, 2011 - 2016

Author:: Lawerence Woocher
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:: The survey focused on four “minimal rewrite” counterfactuals: (a) President Obama’s not calling publicly for Syrian president Bashar al-Assad to “step aside” in 2011, (b) the vetting and arming of moderate rebels in 2012, (c) the use of airstrikes to enforce the “red line” against chemical weapons use in 2013, and (d) the choice of an “Assad first” strategy instead of an “ISIS first” strategy in 2014.1 Respondents were asked to make probabilistic assessments on whether the counterfactual actions would have resulted in fewer civilian fatalities over the subsequent 12 months. They were also asked to cite the most important factors that led to their assessments and to identify other US government actions that would have been more effective in reducing civilian fatalities at the time. The clearest findings are (a) on average, respondents did not rate any of the four main counterfactuals very highly: neither the median nor the mean response on any of the four key counterfactual estimates was as high as 50 percent; and (b) very little consensus existed among respondents about the effect of the counterfactual actions on civilian fatalities over the subsequent year. The data reveal greater consensus on what the “most important factors” were, yet some striking disagreement on key analytical points. Finally, the most frequently cited ideas of other actions that would have helped reduce civilian fatalities were various types of (direct or indirect) military actions.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Syrian War, Civilians, Atrocities, Counterfactuals, and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:: Middle East, Syria, and United States of America

3272. Addressing Yemen’s Most Critical Challenges: Practical Short-Term Recommendations

Author:: Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:: 06-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: As part of the “Rethinking Yemen’s Economy” initiative, the Development Champions Forum met in Amman, Jordan, between April 29 and May 1, 2017, to discuss practical interventions necessary to address the multiple and varied economic challenges facing Yemen. These challenges were identified within three main, if overlapping, categories; the food security crisis, the problems faced by the banking industry, and the collapse of basic service delivery. In regards to the food crisis, the Development Champions’ recommendations called on the international community to move quickly in fulfilling all aid pledges. The champions also emphasized that aid should be cash-based rather than in-kind assistance whenever possible. They called on all parties to the conflict to work towards removing the logistical and financial obstacles affecting the importation and distribution of food and medical supplies, and to urgently improve the management of major commercial entry points, such as the ports of Hudaydah and Aden. Regarding the banking sector, the Development Champions’ called on all parties to work towards a united and functioning Central Bank of Yemen (CBY), and stressed on depositing all public revenues in CBY accounts. The champions recommended that international aid funds should be directed to support Yemen’s foreign exchange holdings, in order to facilitate food and medicine imports. Regarding public service delivery, the champions recommended to focus support on empowering local authorities and building their capacity in service delivery, as well as engaging the Yemeni diaspora in supporting critical service sectors and encouraging international and local NGOs to provide keys services where required. Addressing Yemen's Most Critical Challenges: Practical Short-Term Recommendations - Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies https://sanaacenter.org/publications/main-publications/4438
Topic:: Food Security, Economy, Banking, and Service Delivery
Political Geography:: Middle East and Yemen

3273. Fragile States Index 2017 – Annual Report

Author:: J. J. Messner, Nate Haken, Hannah Blyth, Christina Murphy, Amanda Quinn, George Lehner, and Daniel Ganz
Publication Date:: 05-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Fund for Peace
Abstract:: The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Fragile States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.
Topic:: Fragile States, Economic Growth, Domestic Politics, Coup, Instability, and Autocracy
Political Geography:: Africa, United Kingdom, Turkey, Middle East, South Africa, Brazil, Colombia, South America, North America, Ethiopia, Mexico, South Sudan, Global Focus, and United States of America

3274. ARAB STUDIES JOURNAL VOL. XXV, NO. 2

Author:: Ifdal Elsaket, Suhad Daher-Nashif, Nisa Ari, Tamer ElGindi, Manfred Sing, Nader Atassi, Sophia Azeb, Deen Sharp, Nicholas Simcik Arese, Charles Anderson, Kristi N. Barnwell, and Charles Wilkins
Publication Date:: 09-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Arab Studies Journal
Institution:: Arab Studies Institute
Abstract:: In this issue, we are proud to feature a series of groundbreaking interventions. Ifdal Elsaket explores anti-Blackness in Egypt through the genre of “jungle flms.” She lays bare the racial and imperial fantasies that informed these flms’ popularity. Elsaket exposes a process of racialization through which Egyptians positioned themselves as superior and modern, at a time when Egypt’s claims to Sudan took on a greater urgency and Blackness marked otherness. Tis deeply engrained vision of Africa as a place of inferiority would continue to infect flm and visual culture long afer decolonization. Suhad Daher-Nashif interrogates the national-civic service which has successfully targeted young Palestinian women who are citizens in Israel. Her ethnographic study carefully details the complex web of considerations, interests, and strategies that shape the national-civic service as a “trapped escape.” Women’s participation in the service reveals the mutually constitutive nature of Israeli colonial and Palestinian social structures. By showing how women use a colonial apparatus to escape patriarchal norms DaherNashif rethinks Palestinian experience in Israel as well as the imposition of and resistance to gender norms more broadly. Nisa Ari explores the interaction between local and foreign artistic communities in early twentieth century Palestine. She focuses on the work of Palestinian artist Nicoal Saig (1863-1942) who copied photographs that the American Colony Photo Department (ACPD) produced. Te relationship between Saig and the ACPD, Ari shows, reveals a multidirectional artistic exchange between local and foreign. She uncovers a world in which a diverse group of artistic agents employed diferent practices, produced and sold religious representations and object, and formed a vibrant economic market in late nineteenth and early twentieth century Palestine. Tamer ElGindi tackles the World Bank’s assessment of the massive uprisings that rocked Egypt and Tunisia as “puzzles,” given both countries’ achievements in poverty rates, access to education, child and maternal mortality, and infrastructure services. Trough a close reading of various inequality measures from the developmentalist era of Gamal Abdel Nasser to the subsequent neoliberal eras of Anwar al-Sadat and Husni Mubarak, ElGindi shows that macroeconomic improvements never “trickled down.” Energy and food subsidy systems in particular benefted the wealthiest instead of targeting the needy. He urges for a comprehensive understanding and measurement (of the monetary and the non-monetary) as a prerequisite to understanding and ameliorating inequality. Manfred Sing revisits the wave of Arab social criticism that marked intellectual life afer the 1967 Arab-Israeli war. Trough a careful rereading of fve intellectuals Sadiq Jalal al-‘Azm, Yasin al-Hafz, Mustafa Hijazi, Nawal El Saadawi, and Hisham Sharabi, Sing traces the normative shif in Marxist thought away from a critique of capitalist society and towards theorizing the absence or failure of revolutionary mass movements. Following neither the admirers of Arab criticism nor their countercritics, Sing maps a social criticism that was timely, provocative, polemic, disenchanted, and marred by heuristic fallacies. Tis issue also features the usual robust array of book reviews.
Topic:: Race, History, Arts, Socialism/Marxism, Women, Inequality, Film, and Intellectual History
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North Africa, and Egypt

3275. ARAB STUDIES JOURNAL VOL. XXV, NO. 1

Author:: Ghenwa Hayek, Geoffrey P. Levin, Jamil Mouawad, Hannes Bauman, Dylan Baun, Samar Kanafani, Joan Chaker, Reem Bailony, Paul Kingston, Linda Sayed, Maya Mikdashi, Jeffrey G. Karam, and Hichama Safieddine
Publication Date:: 05-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Arab Studies Journal
Institution:: Arab Studies Institute
Abstract:: Since the November 2016 elections, the dying gasps of US exceptionalism has meant the intensification of attacks on the lives and movement of people from the Arab world. The travel ban constitutes a US policy to sanction the very people that previous administrations as well as the current one have bombed. As borders close, the number of refugees fleeing the horrors of war in Syria, Yemen, and Iraq increases. In this tautology, the new US administration has resoundingly adopted policies of blaming the victims of decades of US war and hegemony. Within this constellation, the production of knowledge as well as higher education more broadly are more crucial than ever. In an era when the status of the fact has eroded at rapid speed, scholars and educators are on the frontlines of guarding the need for empirically grounded and theoretically sound research and scholarship. It is in this spirit that we offer our most recent issue of Arab Studies Journal. Ghenwa Hayek sheds new light on the notion of the “ordinary” and provides an innovative view on contemporary Beirut by tracing a young generation of novelists. Geoffrey P. Levin traces the trajectory of the Organization of Arab Students in the United States as it shifted from mainstream Arab nationalism supportive of US-Arab ties to anti-imperial radicalism. We are also honored to include a special section on the state in Lebanon. The past few years have featured renewed elite and popular mobilizations around particular state institutions and services: waste management, municipal elections, taxes, and more. The existence, nature, and role of al-dawla (the state) has been a persistent feature of public discourses about contemporary politics in Lebanon. In this special section, we feature a number of historical, contemporary, and theoretical considerations of the Lebanes state. Jamil Mouawad and Hannes Bauman, this special section’s co-editors, introduce the articles by considering the need for and stakes of taking more seriously this ephemeral and nebulous network of institutions and individuals. The section features three articles, each making a unique and productive intervention into the broader scholarship on Lebanon as well as that of the state. Complementing the special section is a critical assortment of book reviews of recent works on Lebanese history, contemporary politics, and their implications for the state in Lebanon.
Topic:: Education, History, Infrastructure, State, and Literature
Political Geography:: Middle East, North Africa, and United States of America

3276. After Mosul, Re-inventing Iraq

Author:: Andrea Plebani
Publication Date:: 06-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: After 8 months of heavy fighting, it seems that Mosul is next to be liberated. However, this would not mark the complete defeat of IS in Iraq, nor would it signal the end of the crises affecting the country. What will be the fate of the city and the other liberated territories? Could a victory over a common enemy re-ignite competition among Iraq’s various ethno-sectarian communities? And could this prompt further demands for autonomy by the Kurds, who played a central role in fighting IS? What are the interests and agendas of the main regional and international players for the future of the country? To put all these questions into perspective, ISPI has just published the Report “After Mosul: Re-inventing Iraq,” edited by Andrea Plebani. The volume sketches out possible answers through a multi-pronged approach, bringing to light the complexity of the Iraqi scenario and the influence exerted by a broad array of actors.
Topic:: Islamic State, Conflict, Kurds, Shia, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Mosul

3277. Post-Vote Iran: Giving Engagement a Chance

Author:: Paola Magri and Annalisa Perteghella
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: 2017 is a crucial year for Iran. In January, while the "Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action" (JCPOA) entered the second year of implementation, in Washington the Trump Administration took office, with the promise to “renegotiate a disastrous deal”. In May, in Tehran, the incumbent president Hassan Rouhani won re-election by a wide margin. The events of the first half of the year draw a clear-cut picture of the current situation. Rouhani's pragmatic government is keeping up with its commitments under the JCPOA, while making an effort to open up its country to new economic and political actors. The same is not true of Washington, where the Trump Administration keeps sending contradictory signals. While the State Department has so far renewed the waivers and certified Iran’s compliance with the JCPOA, new sanctions have already been approved in the US Congress and Washington’s comprehensive Iran policy is under review. This Report intends to trace what lies ahead for Iran after the May 2017 Rouhani’s re-election. The analysis builds upon the assumption that Iran does not act in a vacuum: the US, as well as the EU actions, will inevitably help define the future trajectory of the country. A trajectory which is set domestically also by the generational transition Tehran is going through. The inter-factional struggle affecting Iran since the early years of the Revolution is now revived by what is actually at stake: the very future of the Islamic Republic.
Topic:: International Relations, European Union, Economy, Domestic Politics, Engagement, and JCPOA
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

3278. Islam in a Changing Middle East: New Analysis of Shia Politics

Author:: Marc Lynch, Ali Kadivar, Elvire Corboz, Farzan Sabet, Shirin Saeidi, Kevan Harris, Diana Zeidan, Toby Matthiesen, Laurence Louer, Marsin Alshamary, Hussein Abou Saleh, and Morten Valbjørn
Publication Date:: 12-2017
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:: POMEPS Studies 28: New Analysis of Shia Politics The study of Islamist movements has often implicitly meant the study of Sunni Islamist movements. An enormous amount of political science scholarship has dissected the ideology, organization, and political strategy of Sunni Islamist movements.However these academic communities that study Sunni Islamism often proceed without any interaction with the academic communities that study Iran or Shi’a politics in Arab countries. Studies of Iran and of Shi’a movements similarly often proceed in isolation from the literature on the Arab world or Sunni Islamist movements. This is unfortunate, because Sunni and Shi’a Islamist political dynamics engage many similar theoretical or intellectual issues and could offer each other critically important comparative perspective. Therefore, on October 13, 2017, POMEPS convened an interdisciplinary workshop of scholars of Shi’a politics to discuss these questions and to probe the similarities and differences between the two academic communities. We are delighted to publish this collection of essays resulting from that workshop. The essays range widely, both thematically and geographically, and together offer a deeply informed and often surprising portrait of political changes across very different contexts. They also reveal the profound methodological and intellectual divides between the academic communities studying Sunni and Shi’a Islamism. The essays in this collection range broadly over these issues and represent a starting point for the development of a research community. In the coming years, we hope to see much more attention paid to the comparative study of Sunni and Shia Islamism across diverse contexts. Bridging these linguistic, analytical, methodological and political divides would be an important step forward in the broader understanding of Islamist politics.
Topic:: Government, Islam, Politics, Religion, Sectarianism, Islamism, Revolution, Welfare, Sunni, Shia, Monarchy, and Alawites
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Lebanon, Syria, and Gulf Nations

3279. 6 Steps the Trump Administration Should Take in Iraq

Author:: Andrew Kim, Daniel Benaim, and Hardin Lang
Publication Date:: 02-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: The ongoing battle to retake Iraq from the Islamic State, or IS, also known as ISIS or ISIL, is one of the most dynamic foreign policy challenges that the Trump administration confronts as it takes office. A fierce fight is underway to recapture Iraq’s second-largest city, Mosul, with American soldiers operating near the frontlines of a bewilderingly complicated battle space. Major questions remain regarding how Mosul will be stabilized and governed once the city is liberated, and how a still-fractured Iraq can approach the enduring challenge of national reconciliation. President Donald Trump has issued a new executive order requesting an anti-IS strategy in 30 days.1 But the new president has already undercut America’s position in Iraq through his words and deeds. He has repeated his campaign calls for the United States to take Iraq’s oil as spoils of war, including in front of a memorial to fallen Central Intelligence Agency, or CIA, officers.2 And his first major action related to Iraq—an executive order restricting Iraqis’ travel to America—insults the nation’s Iraqi partners who have been at the frontline of the fight against IS and weakens U.S. influence in Iraq.3 The Trump administration’s reckless rhetoric on Iran, including Trump’s accusation that Iran is “taking over more and more of Iraq,” undercuts the anti-IS campaign and undermines broader efforts to counter Iran’s malign regional influence.4 The 2003 Iraq war ended a U.S. policy of dual containment of Iran and Iraq, and the fallout from the Iraq war contributed to Iran’s rising influence across the region. More than a decade later, however, Iraqi nationalism remains strong, and the recent enhanced U.S.-Iraqi cooperation in countering IS has helped reaffirm Iraq as an independent actor not beholden to any other regional forces, including Iran. Trump’s saber-rattling against Iran risks making Iraq a battleground for the United States and Iran. It heightens the chances of conflict between U.S. troops and Iranian-backed Iraqi Shia militants—an outcome that would set back the campaign against IS and quickly wear out America’s welcome in Iraq. The time is now for President Trump to change course and set a more responsible path for U.S.-Iraqi relations. His team will confront policy decisions in its first 100 days that will have consequences for years to come. The good news is that the new administration inherits an anti-IS campaign with considerable momentum. President Barack Obama left behind a global coalition on the cusp of a major military victory in Mosul.5 With U.S. and coalition support, Iraqis have already liberated most of their country and are now degrading remaining IS sanctuaries.6 Trump’s challenge will be to correct his early missteps, see the last administration’s effort through to its conclusion, and chart a stable course for post-IS Iraq. To this end, the Trump administration should take the following six steps.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, Counter-terrorism, and ISIS
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

3280. Iran Is ‘On Notice’—What’s Next?

Author:: Brian Katulis and Muath Al Wari
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: President Donald Trump has pledged to address Iran’s destabilizing policies in the Middle East. His first national security adviser, Michael Flynn, infamously put Iran “on notice” in early February.1 But more than two months into his presidency, it has become clear that the Trump administration lacks a comprehensive strategy to deal effectively with Iran while moving forward in the fight against the Islamic State, or IS, and long-term efforts to stabilize the region. Already, the United States risks ramping up military operations in a way that could contribute to the fragmentation of the Middle East’s state system and open the space for the continued rise of nonstate actors. Without a broader regional strategy that links military approaches to diplomatic efforts in conflict resolution, tactical and operational shifts in U.S. military policy in the Middle East could make the region even more unstable.2 Congress, then, should adopt a look-before-you-leap approach when it comes to the idea of new sanctions against Iran.3 Such an approach would allow Congress to carefully hone any new measures to deal effectively with Iran’s policies. Congress also has an important role in asking tough questions about proposed increased military operations in places such as Yemen, Syria, and Iraq.4 Furthermore, Congress should carefully scrutinize Trump’s proposed budget cuts to funding for national security institutions central to the fight for stability in the Middle East. These cuts would prolong the fight against ISIS and weaken America’s hand in dealing with Iran using a multifaceted, integrated approach.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

3281. Trump’s First 100 Days in the Middle East

Author:: Daniel Benaim
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: The 10th week of Donald Trump’s presidency began with his aides’ declaration that America no longer sought the departure of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad.1 It ended with missile strikes on Assad’s bases.2 The sharp shifts in Trump’s approach were a reminder that, even under the best of circumstances, the first 100 days of any presidency represent a work in progress—a moment of fluidity as campaign rhetoric gives way to governing realities; policy reviews give way to articulated strategy; and, if a president hopes to succeed, a vital window to reflect on early lessons learned.3 To date, President Trump’s actions in the Middle East have told a starkly different story from his bombastic rhetoric. While his process has been erratic, his initial policy approach to the region as president has been marked less by wholesale departures from former President Barack Obama’s policies than by shifts in emphasis that, unless corrected, risk longer-term damage to U.S. interests and regional stability.4 Trump’s limited strikes in Syria in early April are illustrative: While many cast the decision to launch limited strikes in Syria as a stark departure, Trump rushed to reassert his earlier hands-off policy regarding Syria’s civil war.5
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Leadership, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Middle East, North America, and United States of America

3282. Playing the Long Game

Author:: Hardin Lang and Alia Awadallah
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: During the last week of August 2017, the Lebanese government completed its largest counterterrorism operation in years, pushing Islamic State (IS) militants from the group’s stronghold along the Lebanese border with Syria. As many as 7,000 soldiers from the Lebanese army and special operations forces took part.1 The offensive underscored Lebanon’s contribution to the global counter-IS coalition and the key role that its military and security services have played in blocking the expansion of Sunni militant groups in the region. None of this would be possible without the long-term support of the United States, which has quietly bolstered Lebanon’s counterterrorism capabilities over the course of a decade. The cornerstone of the American effort has been a program to strengthen the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) that was launched after Syrian troops withdrew from Lebanon in 2005.2 In particular, Lebanon’s special operations community has made impressive strides in confronting the threat posed by Salafi-jihadi terror groups.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Terrorism, Military Strategy, Counter-terrorism, and War on Terror
Political Geography:: Middle East, Lebanon, North America, and United States of America

3283. The Future of U.S.-Jordanian Counterterrorism Cooperation

Author:: Hardin Lang, William F. Wechsler, and Alia Awadallah
Publication Date:: 11-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: As the United States and Jordan enter the next phase of bilateral counterterrorism cooperation, they should work together to continue to strengthen Jordan’s security services.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Counter-terrorism, and Alliance
Political Geography:: Middle East, North America, Jordan, and United States of America

3284. Sociopolitical Movements and the Development of Non-Violent Civil Resistance: A Conversation with Ches Thurber

Author:: Ches Thurber and Austin Bowman
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Ches Thurber is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at Northern Illinois University. He was previously a research fellow at the Chicago Project on Security and Terrorism at the University of Chicago and at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. His current book project, Strategies of Violence and Nonviolence in Revolutionary Movements, examines why political movements seeking to overthrow the state embrace strategies of either armed insurgency or civil resistance.
Topic:: Security, Islam, Non State Actors, Sectarianism, Social Movement, Conflict, and Interview
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, Syria, North America, and United States of America

3285. Epidemiological Insurgency: Polio Persistence on the Afghanistan-Pakistan Border

Author:: Rand Quinn
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Despite a profound global impact over the first half of the twentieth century, polio is largely an afterthought throughout the developed world. Vaccines engineered in the late 1950s paved the way for a precipitous drop in global disease burden with the onset of the World Health Organization-led (WHO) Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) starting in 1988. Recent indicators of the program’s success include a declaration of eradication in India[1] and a teeteringly low infection rate in Nigeria;[2] two of the disease’s last bastions. This progress, however, has been notably stifled by the steady persistence of a wild poliovirus reservoir centered in northern Pakistan along the Afghanistan-Pakistan (Af-Pak) border. Throughout significant portions of recorded history this region’s volatility has been well-documented, including a currently sustained network for the training of terrorist fighters dating back to the period of the 1979 Afghan-Soviet War.[3] These networks serve to both attract fledgling radical jihadist recruits and supply fighters globally, markedly providing many of the transnational fighters taking part in the Syrian Civil War. Their movement in and out of the Af-Pak region has provided a major disease vector for poliovirus. The location of a terrorist network transit hub in by far the world’s largest remaining reservoir of wild poliovirus poses a major challenge for policymakers. Due to several factors, including a decline in healthcare infrastructure throughout the western world, the situation presents a legitimate epidemiological threat. However, the issue is more importantly an exemplar of the morphing nature of multidimensional threats, which are likely to become more prevalent in an era of globalization, failed states, and an inability to effectively address social issues amidst the threat of kinetic warfare...
Topic:: Security, Environment, Health, Terrorism, World Health Organization, Infectious Diseases, and Borders
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, South Asia, Middle East, and United States of America

3286. Violent Non-State Actors in the Middle East: A Conversation with Dr. Carmit Valensi

Author:: Robert Pulwer and Carmit Valensi
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Dr. Carmit Valensi is a research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) and a consultant for various research and security groups. She specializes in contemporary Middle East, strategic studies and terrorism. Her Ph.D. thesis explores Hamas, Hezbollah, and FARC as "violent hybrid actors."
Topic:: Non State Actors, Arab Spring, Syrian War, Hezbollah, and Interview
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria

3287. ISIS and Reporting: A Conversation with Graeme Wood

Author:: Graeme Wood and Eli Stiefel
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Graeme Wood is a correspondent for The Atlantic. He was the 2015 - 2016 Edward R. Murrow Press Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and is a lecturer in political science at Yale University. He was formerly a contributing editor to The New Republic and books editor of Pacific Standard. He was a reporter at The Cambodia Daily in Phnom Penh in 1999, then lived and wrote in the Middle East from 2002 to 2006. He has received fellowships from the Social Sciences Research Council (2002-2003), the South Asian Journalists Association (2009), the East-West Center (2009-2010), and the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum’s Center for the Prevention of Genocide (2013-2014). He has appeared many times on television and radio (CNN, ABC, BBC, MSNBC, et al.), was the screenwriter of a Sundance Official Selection (2010, short film), and led a Nazi-hunting expedition to Paraguay for a History Channel special in 2009.
Topic:: Security, Non State Actors, Islamic State, and Journalism
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, Syria, and United States of America

3288. Merchants of Men: How Jihadists and ISIS Turned Kidnapping and Refugee Trafficking into a Multi-Billion Dollar Business, by Loretta Napoleoni

Author:: Loretta Napoleoni and Karen Jacobsen
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: This book is a lively journalistic read, filled with stories and details of encounters between jihadists, smugglers, organized crime, drug smuggling across the Sahara, kidnapping of rich tourists, and European ransoms. The author, an Italian journalist, describes herself as a ‘chronicler of the dark side of the economics of globalization’ and has written several books on ISIS, terrorist financing, and money laundering. In Merchants of Men, Napoleoni argues that the proliferation of failed states and the breakdown of law and order in regions like the Sahel, accelerated by the burgeoning cocaine business in the region, have enabled a rapid increase in trafficking and kidnapping. The profits of these merchants of men have flourished, aided by the secrecy of European governments surrounding the ransoming of their citizens (notably, the U.S. does not, publicly at least, pay ransoms). Napoleoni raises these and a number of intriguing issues in the preface. She points to the “false sense of security about the globalized world” that allows both “young, inexperienced members of the First Nations Club” and humanitarian aid workers to explore the world and bring aid to conflict zones — and become the primary target of kidnappers. She gives (unsourced) statistics about the growth of the kidnapping industry and its mirror, private security companies, and asks whether “the economics of kidnapping are immune from the laws of economics,” because as competition has increased between kidnappers and private security firms, prices have gone up instead of down. She argues that when the migrant crisis erupted in Europe in 2015, the business of hostage taking — already set up with “a sophisticated organizational structure in place and plenty of money from trading hostages” — switched to trafficking in migrants and refugees. The profits of these merchants of men have continued to increase since then.
Topic:: Crime, Refugees, Islamic State, Book Review, and Journalism
Political Geography:: Iraq, Europe, Middle East, Syria, Global Focus, and United States of America

3289. Re-embracing the Wartime Detention Mission

Author:: Ryan J. Vogel
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: President Donald Trump has made clear his intent to utilize wartime detention in the fight against al-Qaeda and ISIS. As former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Rule of Law and Detainee Policy, William Lietzau, and I have argued elsewhere, this could be a positive development in the United States’ evolving approach to the war against al-Qaeda, ISIS, and their associates, so long as it is coupled with a commitment to continuing key detention policies and humane treatment standards developed over the past fifteen years. In recent years, the United States has largely avoided adding to the detainee population at Guantanamo (GTMO) – mainly in reaction to some of the more infamous excesses from the first couple of years after the attacks on September 11, 2001. But failing to capture new enemy fighters has come with an operational and humanitarian cost. The United States should take the opportunity that comes with political transition to re-embrace the wartime detention mission.
Topic:: Government, Human Rights, Law, Prisons/Penal Systems, Al Qaeda, Islamic State, and War on Terror
Political Geography:: Middle East, Global Focus, United States of America, and Guantanamo

3290. Waging Insurgent Warfare: Lessons from the Vietcong to the Islamic State, by Seth G. Jones

Author:: Seth G. Jones and Polina Beliakova
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Insurgencies are often thought of as domestic conflicts between state and non-state actors seeking to challenge governmental legitimacy, overthrow the government, or take territorial control from the state. However, thinking about insurgency merely in terms of domestic affairs substantially limits our perspective, and might be misleading both in terms of theory and policy. In addition, the tendency of policymakers and scholars to focus their attention on counterinsurgency bears the risk of considering the solution before understanding all nuances of the problem. Seth G. Jones’ Waging Insurgent Warfare is truly a book about insurgency. Using both qualitative and quantitative methods, Jones analyzes how insurgencies start, strategies and tactics used by insurgent groups, their organizational structures, and their informational campaigns. The author devotes particular attention to the role of outside support for insurgencies from various types of actors including great power states. Finally, he addresses the issue of how insurgencies end. Only in the concluding chapter does Jones discuss the implications of the key findings of the book for counterinsurgency.
Topic:: International Relations, History, Counterinsurgency, Non State Actors, Military Affairs, and Islamic State
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, Middle East, Asia, Syria, North America, and United States of America

3291. Implementing the Responsibility to Protect: Domestic Processes and Foreign Assistance

Author:: Cecilia Jacob
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Australian National University Department of International Relations
Abstract:: On 28–29 October 2016, the Department of International Relations at The Australian National University, along with the Asia Pacific Centre for the Responsibility to Protect at the University of Queensland, and with support from the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, hosted the conference Implementing the Responsibility to Protect: Domestic Processes and Foreign Assistance. The conference was attended by academics, including leading experts in the field, and members and representatives of a wide range of government agencies, the diplomatic community, international organisations, and civil society organisations. Two distinguished keynotes were delivered by the Honorable Gareth Evans, ANU Chancellor and co-chair of the International Commission on Intervention and State Sovereignty (ICISS), and Ivan Šimonović, Special Adviser on the Responsibility to Protect to the UN Secretary-General (SASG). The purpose of the conference was to bring together policymakers, practitioners, and scholars working on areas related to the implementation of the Responsibility to Protect (R2P), primarily in the areas of state-level responsibility to prevent mass atrocities and protect civilian populations (what we call Pillar One of the R2P), and international assistance to states to fulfil this responsibility (Pillar Two). Recognising that the principle of R2P has gained significant traction within the international community since it was first introduced in the 2001 report The Responsibility to Protect, the conference sought to transcend longstanding debates over acceptance and legitimacy of R2P as a norm. Rather, it sought to clarify what the implementation of R2P entails for the policy and practitioner community, and to push forward new lines of academic inquiry and research that could support the implementation agenda. At its heart, R2P implementation is about strengthening the capacity of states to prevent atrocities from occurring in the first place. Prevention requires enhancing the resilience of societies that face the risk of atrocities through improved access to security, justice, and the rule of law. Effective mass atrocity prevention requires going local – understanding the dynamics of mass atrocities in their specific historical and social contexts; and going international – ensuring that international actors effectively align their priorities, strategies, and resourcing on atrocity prevention in ways that support local and national needs. This is an ambitious agenda, and experts from a range of fields were invited to address the practical implications of implementing R2P across numerous sites. The central themes included atrocity prevention, international accountability, human rights, international humanitarian law, justice for legacies of violence, foreign policy, development cooperation, peacekeeping, and civil–military assistance. The conference brought together different communities working on aspects that support the goals of R2P in order to enhance knowledge across thematic divides, and contributed to clarifying the practical implications that commitment to R2P implementation entails for these communities across the spectrum. This report contains the text of the keynote speeches, and condensed summaries of the panel discussions. These can be read together to provide a comprehensive synthesis of the debates occurring across the spectrum, or can be read as stand-alone sections for those with specific interest in a particular aspect of the R2P implementation.
Topic:: Genocide, Human Rights, International Cooperation, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, Asia, North Korea, Philippines, Syria, and Congo

3292. The Crisis of Higher Education for Syrian Refugees: Between Relief Work and Strategic Planning

Author:: Mohammad AlAhmad
Publication Date:: 09-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:: Meeting the educational needs of refugees and displaced people, particularly the need for higher education, is considered one of the greatest humanitarian challenges facing the international community in its response to the Syrian crisis. UNHCR estimates that globally, only 1% of refugee youth are able to access higher education.
Topic:: Humanitarian Aid, Refugees, Displacement, and Higher Education
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

3293. Education in the Arab World: Measuring Up Or “Upping” Our Measures?

Author:: Fida Adely
Publication Date:: 09-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:: Professor Adely discusses how flawed quality measures often shape our understanding of education in the Middle East and what a closer look at these measures can tell us.
Topic:: Education, Children, Economy, Research, and Youth
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arab Countries, and North Africa

3294. Transforming Futures in Palestine

Author:: Steven Keller
Publication Date:: 09-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:: As a MAAS student in the mid-90s reading Sara Roy’s important book, The Gaza Strip: The Political Economy of De-Development, little could I have imagined that I would one day have the opportunity to spend more than a decade (and counting) leading the Palestine portfolio of the respected education organization AMIDEAST. Nor could I have imagined that the grim picture of Gaza painted by Roy’s comprehensive research would seem so much better in so many ways than the Gaza that I encountered at the start of my tenure here in 2006—or how much worse it has become since then.
Topic:: Education, Children, Youth, and Higher Education
Political Geography:: Middle East, Palestine, and Gaza

3295. Celebrating the Cultures of the Excluded

Author:: Kristina Bogos
Publication Date:: 09-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:: Amidst the rising anti-refugee and anti-immigrant sentiment in the United States, Muslim children in the Washington DC area took a stand this spring in an unconventional way: the expression of their cultures through song, poetry, and dance at Arena Stage in the Mead Center for American Theater.
Topic:: Culture, Refugees, Immigrants, Trump, and Protests
Political Geography:: Middle East and United States of America

3296. Partnering for Solutions

Author:: Vicki Valosik
Publication Date:: 09-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:: CCAS, in partnership with the University of Kurdistan, brought together 40+ researchers this spring to discuss durable solutions to forced displacement in Iraq. Iraq has suffered from massive internal displacement for several decades, but with the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) the numbers of those displaced have grown drastically. More than three million Iraqis—or ten percent of the country’s population—currently live as internally displaced persons (IDPs). In an effort to address this crisis, the Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS) and the Institute for the Study of International Migration (ISIM) at Georgetown recently joined efforts with the University of Kurdistan, Hawler (UKH) and the International Organization for Migration (IOM) to host the conference “Migration and Displacement in Iraq: Working Towards Durable Solutions.”
Topic:: Migration, Islamic State, Displacement, Kurds, and Higher Education
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, North America, and Kurdistan

3297. What Post-WWII Schoolchildren Learned about the World

Author:: Susan Douglass
Publication Date:: 09-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:: A look at the role of textbooks in shaping worldviews, global literacy, and national pride. The middle of the twentieth century was a watershed period in history for many reasons, with one of the most significant being the rise of mass education systems across the world. As Britain shed its colonies, newly independent countries with influential leaders launched efforts to educate their masses—efforts that had been held back under colonial rule. India and Egypt, under Nehru and Abdel Nasser respectively, began using government schools to strive for social integration and mold their citizens’ worldviews to enlist them in national economic development and modernization. Britain, too, launched a much-needed expansion of its secondary education system and revamped its elementary schools to meet the demands of the postwar baby boom.
Topic:: Education, Nationalism, History, and Children
Political Geography:: Britain, Europe, South Asia, Middle East, India, and Egypt

3298. The Art of the Deal, the AK-47 and the Arms Trade Treaty

Author:: Simon Adams
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: When we think of the Holocaust our mind slips inexorably to dismal images of cattle cars stuffed with people, or to gas chambers, crematoria and the cruel irony of the “Arbeit Macht Frei” gate. But of the six million Jews killed during the Holocaust over a million were shot with rifles and other small arms. They were not killed in concentration camps, but were murdered in fields or forests and pitched into mass graves outside villages in Nazi-occupied Eastern Europe. Before Auschwitz, Sobibor or Treblinka, the Holocaust began with bullets. The same is true of most mass atrocities carried out since 1945. From the killing fields of Cambodia to the burnt villages of Darfur, most of the killing was done with rifles and other small arms. It is for this reason that there is an enduring connection between preventing atrocities and confronting the international arms trade. The AK-47, or Kalashnikov, is the most popular weapon in the world today, with an estimated 70 million currently in existence. Numerous countries manufacture local variants of the ubiquitous assault rifle and while a new Chinese-made AK-47 might cost you $500, you can easily purchase one in many former conflict zones for as cheap as $50. When I lived in Johannesburg during the mid-1990s, leftover AK-47s from the civil war in Mozambique were still making their way through the townships and some entrepreneurial gangs were even renting out their AK-47s to other aspiring criminals at an hourly rate.
Topic:: Violent Extremism, Weapons, Arms Trade, and Responsibility to Protect (R2P)
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Middle East, United Nations, and Global Focus

3299. ISIS’s Future in Africa after Iraq and Syria

Author:: Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:: After losing territory in Iraq and Syria, ISIS has affirmed its intention to expand its operations into Africa. A review of militant group activity on the continent, however, suggests that ISIS will be challenged to do so.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, Violent Extremism, ISIS, and Militant Islam
Political Geography:: Africa, Iraq, Middle East, North Africa, and Syria

3300. CODE OF CONDUCT AS AN ALTERNATIVE TO REFORMATION OF THE UN SECURITY COUNCIL

Author:: Mehmet Halil Mustafa BEKTAŞ
Publication Date:: 06-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Alternative Politics
Institution:: Department of International Relations, Abant Izzet Baysal University, Turkey
Abstract:: The United Nations Security Council's (SC) intermittent failure to perform its main duty of maintaining international peace and security has led to a longstanding debate about its reform. The ongoing Syrian crisis has resulted in a significant number of casualties, and has cost the international community heavily. The SC has thus become the subject both of severe criticism and of calls to take action. The inertia that results from an insistence on the use of the veto power has stimulated politicians to develop alternative methods. In this regard, some argue that there must be a Code of Conduct for the Council in order to enable it to react in cases of genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes. Proponents of a Code of Conduct for the SC have naturally directed their attention to the veto power, the main suggestion being that it must be restricted in these extreme circumstances. Three main initiatives have consequently been developed and have received a considerable degree of support from states. Yet their deficiencies, including a specific procedural trigger and a process by which an alternative course of action could be initiated should one or more of the permanent five Council members (P5) refuse to refrain from using their veto power, have largely been overlooked. The current proposal aims to examine these initiatives and make suggestions to remedy these shortcomings. It first outlines previous efforts to reform the Council, then examines the suggested Code of Conduct, and finally proposes a new Code of Conduct and explains why a procedural trigger and a backup procedure must be provided. To the best of the author's knowledge, there is no academic work on the Code of Conduct for the Council; there are only a few comments by politicians. This study will therefore make a contribution to the literature.
Topic:: Genocide, International Cooperation, United Nations, and UN Human Rights Council (HRC)
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS