Political Geography: Middle East / Publication Year: within 10 Years

1901. Transnational Impacts of Muslim Bans and US Sanctions

Author:: Azadeh Shahshahani
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:: This lecture focuses on the harm that US sanctions as well as the Muslim Ban have caused Iranians and Iranian-Americans, and ways in which the public can help put an end to US threats of aggression and sanctions as well as work towards repealing the Muslim Ban and other discriminatory policies.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Sanctions, Border Control, Immigrants, Discrimination, and Immigration Policy
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

1902. Coups and Revolution: Mass Mobilization, The Egyptian Military, and The U.S. From Mubarak to Sisi

Author:: Amy Holmes
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:: In 2011, Egypt witnessed more protests than any other country in the world. Counter to the received narrative, Amy Austin Holmes argues that the ousting of Mubarak in 2011 did not represent the culmination of a revolution or the beginning of a transition period, but rather the beginning of a revolutionary process that would unfold in three waves, followed by two waves of counterrevolution.
Topic:: Arab Spring, Coup, Revolution, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, and Hosni Mubarak
Political Geography:: Middle East, North Africa, Egypt, and United States of America

1903. Understanding Israel’s War in the ‘Grey Zone’

Author:: Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Israel seeks to disrupt Iran’s efforts to develop nuclear weapons, and to reverse the Iranian project to entrench its forces in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Lebanon, and Syria

1904. From the Ocean to the Gulf: Normalization takes Hold

Author:: Efraim Inbar and Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Morocco has maintained open channels with Israel for many years, and it values the unique Jewish contribution to its heritage. A new pattern of normalization with Israel now extends from the Atlantic to the Gulf. Morocco’s coordination with the US also is a vital part of the emerging alignment of forces of stability in the region. Israel now should give this breakthrough a firm grounding in policies beneficial to both peoples.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Conflict, Peace, and Normalization
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, Israel, and Morocco

1905. The Collapse of Palestinian Grand Strategy

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The Palestinian quest for an internationally imposed “solution,” which would not require them to negotiate a compromise deal with Israel, has failed. Palestinian leaders may attempt this again after Joe Biden becomes US president, but this will fail yet again, since the collapse of their past strategy is due to much more than the policies of the Trump Administration. Indeed, evolving regional and global realities allow for a new Israeli peace initiative, which can preserve the underlying principles of the Trump outline for peace.
Topic:: Territorial Disputes, Conflict, Strategic Stability, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North America, and United States of America

1906. Israel’s Role in Helping the Biden Administration Set Policy Towards Iran

Author:: Yaakov Amidror, Efraim Inbar, and Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Israel should seek to persuade the Biden transition team not to offer Iran any premature concessions; it should outline what would constitute an acceptable, “stronger and longer” deal; find other international actors to support the policy suggested by Israel (possibly France and even Russia); and prepare a viable military option, both to strengthen America’s negotiating hand and as an option in the case of failure to reverse Iran’s present course.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America

1907. Time for an Israeli Peace Initiative

Author:: Efraim Inbar and Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: To acquire greater freedom of action in dealing with Iran’s quest for nuclear weapons, Israel needs to minimize tensions with the US on the Palestinian front.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Conflict, Peace, and Denuclearization
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North America, and United States of America

1908. US Must Protect Israel’s QME After F-35 Sale to UAE

Author:: Yaakov Amidror
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: As the largest arms supplier to the Middle East, America plays a critical role in ensuring that its sales uphold and do not adversely affect Israel’s security
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Arms Trade
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, North America, United States of America, and UAE

1909. China’s Alternative Vision for Gulf Security

Author:: Tuvia Gering
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Trump’s Middle East peace plan and the recent Israel-Arab peace accords limit Chinese influence in the region. Countering this, China is advancing a collective security concept for the region based on the JCPOA. The US and Israel must stymie this Chinese gambit and reinforce the Abraham Accords.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Peace, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, Israel, Asia, North America, and United States of America

1910. Why Israelis Like Trump

Author:: Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: From his rejection of Obama-era political correctness to his family make-up, Trump has charmed Israelis.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Governance, Elections, and Leadership
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America

1911. Egypt’s Support of Normalization is part of the Mediterranean Alignment

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Egypt’s public welcome of the normalization between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain and Sudan is one of the payoffs emerging from the important Egypt-Israel partnership in the eastern Mediterranean.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Peace, and Normalization
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, Israel, and Egypt

1912. Rabin’s True Legacy

Author:: Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Prime Minister Rabin insisted on defensible borders. He never entertained a return to the 1967 borders nor any territorial swaps.
Topic:: Security, Military Strategy, Governance, Leadership, and Borders
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

1913. China’s View of the Abraham Accords

Author:: Tuvia Gering
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: China aims to play a more proactive role in the Middle East, maintaining cordial relations with all rival countries. Beijing attaches great importance to its ties with Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and Egypt, and therefore has welcomed the Abraham Accords (albeit in lukewarm fashion, because of tensions with the Trump administration).
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Hegemony, Peace, and Intervention
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, and Asia

1914. The Lebanese-Israeli Maritime Border Talks: An Important Step Forward

Author:: Joshua Krasna
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The talks suggest that when common interests exist, Israel can engage beneficially and pragmatically even with enemies, resulting in de-escalation and mutual benefit.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, Maritime, and Borders
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

1915. The Beirut Disaster: A Chance for a Systemic Change in Lebanon?

Author:: Aiman Mansour and Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The current political situation in Lebanon is very problematic. Hizbullah enjoys full freedom of action in a country which long ago became dysfunctional. Hence the importance of lending support to the French effort to bring about systemic change in the Lebanese confessional order. Further descent into chaos and/or growing intervention by Turkey would be even more dangerous for Israel.
Topic:: Security, Politics, Terrorism, and Political stability
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

1916. The Israeli Interest: Keep Syria Weak

Author:: Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Israel should reject any overtures from the Assad government, and help keep “maximum pressure” on the regime.
Topic:: Governance, Leadership, Fragile States, and Political stability
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Syria

1917. France Needs Israel as a Strong and Firm Ally

Author:: Olivier Rafowicz
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Is President Macron capable of reshaping Franco-Israeli relations?
Topic:: Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Leadership, and Alliance
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Israel, and France

1918. Egypt-Jordan-Iraq: Another Middle East Axis in the Making?

Author:: Joshua Krasna
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Egypt, Iraq, and Jordan seek to develop a regional bloc in the geographical center of the Arab world. But all three countries are poor and dependent in for economic largesse on more wealthy partners, so their regional aspirations and strategies will necessarily be limited.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa, Iraq, Middle East, Egypt, and Jordan

1919. Stabilizing forces growing stronger

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The peace deals between Israel, the UAE and Bahrain mark the completion of an existing process by which the region’s stabilizing forces are banding together against the Iranian threat.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, Political stability, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Bahrain, and UAE

1920. Gulf states seek warm peace with Israel

Author:: Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The diplomatic moves toward Israel taken by the UAE and Bahrain make it clear that Arab states can act in their own national interest when it comes to international politics, rather than abide by a stale lowest common denominator of “Arab consensus.”
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Bahrain, Gulf Nations, and UAE

1921. Douglas MacGregor is a friend

Author:: Gershon Hacohen and Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Antisemitism accusations against Dr Douglas MacGregor are deeply upsetting.
Topic:: Governance, Leadership, Anti-Semitism, and Political Culture
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America

1922. UAE treaty part of a much bigger game

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Israel is a key player in the crisis currently unfolding in the eastern Mediterranean basin, on the same side as the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Greece.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, Peace, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Gulf Nations, and UAE

1923. Tempered Euphoria on the UAE-Israel Agreement

Author:: Joshua Krasna
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The deal is a clear win for Israel, the UAE and the US. Netanyahu gets a face-saving, significant reward for not doing something (annexation) he was not going to be able to do anyway in the current political/diplomatic context.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, Leadership, and Alliance
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, North America, United States of America, and UAE

1924. Israel Needs to Strike Hezbollah to Ensure its Freedom of Action

Author:: Omer Dostri
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: A limited Israeli military operation in Lebanon would strengthen Israeli deterrence against Hezbollah. It also would deepen Iran’s sense of defeat and demonstrate Israel’s determination to check Iran’s malign activity.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Deterrence
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Israel

1925. Lebanon: The Tragic Story of the Arab World

Author:: Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Lebanon is a failed state, and its misfortunes are characteristic of a broader regional malaise.
Topic:: Fragile/Failed State, Governance, Leadership, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

1926. Lebanon’s economic ship is sinking, taking Hezbollah with it

Author:: Udi Levi
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The Trump administration has realized that in order to wound Hezbollah on a profound level the organization must be disjoined from the Lebanese economy, with an emphasis on the country’s banking system.
Topic:: Economics, Terrorism, Military Strategy, and Hezbollah
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

1927. Israel, Greece, and the Turkish Challenge: Acute Testing Lies Ahead

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Israel is unable to get directly involved in eastern Mediterranean hostilities, should they erupt. But it can and should cooperate closely with Greece in intelligence matters and arms acquisition and coordinate political action with Greece in Washington. The US stance largely will determine the practical scope of Erdogan’s ambitions.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, Hegemony, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Greece

1928. The Tensions between Assad and Iran Present an Opportunity in Syria

Author:: Eran Lerman, Aiman Mansour, and Micky Aharonson
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Israel and the US may have an opportunity to incentivize Assad and Putin to cooperate in constraining Iran’s presence in Syria.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Middle East, Israel, Syria, North America, and United States of America

1929. The Future of India-Israel Arms Trade

Author:: Alvite Singh Ningthoujam
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Israel’s state-of-the-art weapon systems and technological expertise are a mainstay of India’s drive for a self-reliant defense industry.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Arms Trade, and Defense Industry
Political Geography:: Middle East, India, Israel, and Asia

1930. The Assassination of Hisham al-Hashimi: A Warning from Iraqi Shia Militias

Author:: Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Killing of prominent adviser shows the determination of Iranian-backed Shia militias to resist any attempt to curtail their powers and freedom of action.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Governance, Leadership, and Militias
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

1931. Shortening mandatory service is a danger to Israel

Author:: Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Soldiers in uniform for less time means the army has less time to train them and can make use of their skills for a shorter period. In addition, there is no benefit in releasing potential young workers early at a time of rife unemployment.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Armed Forces, Israel Defense Forces (IDF), and Civil-Military Relations
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

1932. Security Considerations and National Unity Require Jordan Valley Sovereignty

Author:: Eran Lerman and Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The American peace plan provides a historic opportunity to break the futile paradigm based on the 1967 lines and ensure Israeli national security for the long term. In terms of security – protecting Israel, stabilizing Jordan, and preventing a terrorist takeover of a future Palestinian entity – and given the supreme importance of national cohesion, it is imperative to focus on the Jordan Valley and the Jerusalem envelope.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Peace, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America

1933. Erdogan’s Arc of Destabilization

Author:: Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: From northwest Iraq to Tripoli on Libya’s African coast, Turkey is flexing its muscles – without the slightest nod to the supposedly ‘pro-Western’ and ‘pro-NATO’ orientation that Turkey’s Western apologists like to recall.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Conflict, Regionalism, Strategic Stability, and Destabilization
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Asia

1934. Apply Sovereignty to the Jordan Valley, Now

Author:: Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The Valley is Israel’s only defensible eastern border and Israel’s sovereignty there is vital for the demilitarization of a future Palestinian state
Topic:: Defense Policy, Sovereignty, Military Strategy, Territorial Disputes, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

1935. On Viruses and Missiles

Author:: Uzi Rubin
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The lesson learned from the current crisis is that restrictions imposed to protect the public are futile unless the public is convinced that it is at risk. To this end, government must communicate to the public with clear-cut data and logical arguments.
Topic:: Security, Missile Defense, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

1936. Qods Day Advances Iran’s Regional Aspirations

Author:: Yossi Mansharof
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: “Qods Day” reflects Tehran’s determination to annihilate Israel, a pillar of Iranian foreign policy. It also is an important part of “exporting” the Islamic Revolution.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Ideology
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Israel

1937. Reject Iran’s Request for an IMF Loan

Author:: Yossi Mansharof
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Under the pretext of separation between regime and people, Iran seeks $5 billion in IMF emergency funding to fight COVID-19. This would significantly undermine the pressure on Iran being applied by US sanctions, and therefore the loan should be denied.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Sanctions, Pandemic, IMF, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

1938. Rising Tensions and Security Chaos in Syria’s Deraa Province

Author:: Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: A four-way contest under way between the Assad regime, Russian interests, Iranian interests, and unreconciled former rebels.
Topic:: Security, Conflict, Regionalism, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, and Syria

1939. Syria’s dictator Bashar Assad faces renewed challenges at all levels

Author:: Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Bashar Assad is not about to fall, But economic deterioration, regime infighting, sanctions and unrest are combining to place his regime under renewed, severe pressure
Topic:: Economics, Fragile/Failed State, Governance, Authoritarianism, and Leadership
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

1940. Lebanon’s Economic Collapse: Consequences for Israel

Author:: Aiman Mansour
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Israel should study the strategic consequences of the continuous economic deterioration in Lebanon, with an emphasis on the Shiite community’s situation. It might favor Hizballah.
Topic:: Economics, Military Strategy, Conflict, Hezbollah, and State Sponsored Terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

1941. Cyber-Warfare between Iran and Israel

Author:: Omer Dostri
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The recent reciprocal cyber-attacks attributed to Israel and Iran were meant to set red lines on the non-kinetic dimension of war.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Cybersecurity, Conflict, and Digitalization
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Israel

1942. Phased Territorial Implementation of the Trump Peace Plan

Author:: Eran Lerman and Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The Trump Plan is the most realistic route for progress towards the goal of “two states for two peoples.” Therefore, the Israeli national unity government should embrace the Trump plan in its entirety, including negotiations towards establishment of a Palestinian state, and at the same time act (in the first stage) to apply Israeli law to the Jordan Valley and strategically significant areas in the Jerusalem envelope, such as Maaleh Adumim and Gush Etzion. An Israeli consensus exists regarding these areas.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, Territorial Disputes, and Peace
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

1943. The Struggle for the Mediterranean: The EMGF Stake in the Libyan Civil War

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Dramatic gains on the battlefield by the forces loyal to the Turkish-backed “Government of National Accord” in western Libya have given Erdogan a victory, which may endanger the future of the eastern Mediterranean. Italy, Greece, Cyprus, Egypt and Israel must coordinate their policies in response. A tripartite Greek-Cypriot-Israeli summit should be held urgently to annul the GNA-Libyan EEZ agreement, to present an alternative map of the Mediterranean, and to encourage a robust reaction of the EU. The US must be persuaded to pressure Turkey revoke the EEZ MoU (while still letting Erdogan take pride in saving the GNA from ruin).
Topic:: Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Hegemony, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Greece, Italy, Cyprus, and Mediterranean

1944. Is Iran Gaining a Foothold in the West Bank?

Author:: Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: A moribund terrorist group, the PFLP, is experiencing a revival and launching terror attacks, with help from Iran.
Topic:: Terrorism, Military Strategy, Territorial Disputes, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

1945. Build Jerusalem

Author:: Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: US recognition of the eternal city as Israel’s capital and the Trump peace plan pave the way forward.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, Peace, and Statehood
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

1946. Coronavirus has not changed the Middle East

Author:: Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Conflicts persist, and the revisionist powers continue their disruptive behavior. This includes Iranian subversion and acceleration of its nuclear project, as well as Turkey’s expansionism in Syria.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Conflict, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Regional Power
Political Geography:: Iran, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

1947. Israel’s strategy in Syria is less coherent than it seems

Author:: Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: There is a discrepancy between the stated goal – the expulsion of Iran from Syria – and the means being employed by Israel to achieve it.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Conflict, Strategic Stability, Strategic Interests, and Intervention
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Syria

1948. Coronavirus has caused protests in Lebanon to reignite

Author:: Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The virus has no political preferences, and its generalized assault has led to cooperation in some arenas between bitter rivals.
Topic:: Governance, Social Movement, Protests, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

1949. Implementing Elements of the Trump Plan: An Opportunity to Give New Life to the Two-State Option

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Rejection of the Trump plan outright, denunciation of any steps towards its implementation, and adherence to the failed Oslo-era paradigm for peace – is certain to condemn all sides to continued conflict.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, Territorial Disputes, Leadership, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Middle East, Palestine, and Israel

1950. Netanyahu’s Annexation Plan Can’t Be Stopped

Author:: Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Annexation of the Jordan Valley is a long-standing Israeli objective, going back to Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin.
Topic:: Security, Territorial Disputes, Leadership, Settlements, and Annexation
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

1951. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Goes to Space

Author:: Uzi Rubin
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Now that IRGC leadership in Iran’s space effort is out in the open, it can be expected that its homemade, long-range rockets with a global reach will be revealed soon, as well.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Conflict, Space, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

1952. ISIS and Coronavirus: Will Terrorists Exploit COVID-19?

Author:: Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The ‘ghost caliphate’ – Sunni Arab insurgency – is likely to persist in the remote, poor and sparsely governed areas of Syria and Iraq.
Topic:: Terrorism, ISIS, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Middle East

1953. Iran keeps up its malign behavior, pandemic notwithstanding

Author:: Yaakov Amidror
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: In the meantime, it doesn’t seem as though Iran – the driving force behind most of the friction in the Middle East – is changing its plans or abandoning its dreams, whether in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq or even Yemen.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Conflict, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

1954. Israeli Decision-Making During the COVID-19 Crisis

Author:: Yaakov Amidror
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: There are four factors to consider when weighing action against the coronavirus: public health, preservation of the economy, civil rights, and the international and regional context. National decision-making must take all four of these elements into account, with emphases shifting over the course of time as circumstances change.
Topic:: Security, Military Strategy, Conflict, Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

1955. Israel’s Response to Covid-19: Strengths, Weaknesses and Opportunities

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Overall, Israeli society has remained resilient in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic, and there are reasons to rate highly key aspects of the government’s response.
Topic:: Governance, Leadership, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

1956. Will Coronavirus be a Moderating Factor in the Middle East?

Author:: Aiman Mansour and Micky Aharonson
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The assumption that the virus will curb Middle East conflicts does not stand the test of reality. Israel must remain on high security alert.
Topic:: Security, Military Strategy, Conflict, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Middle East

1957. Coronavirus and the Campaign against Iran

Author:: Udi Levi
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: There may be a change in Iranian policy towards the US due to Iran’s economic and coronavirus difficulties.
Topic:: Economics, Sanctions, Fragile States, Conflict, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

1958. Lessons to be Learned: Israel’s Handling of the Coronavirus Crisis

Author:: Giora Eiland
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Even amidst the ongoing crisis, it is critical to adjust government decision-making structures and operational management procedures to “emergency” mode, in order to ensure optimal outcome.
Topic:: Governance, Leadership, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

1959. Social and Economic Reslience in a Crisis Situation: Strategic Implications

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The resilence of Israeli society at a time of national emergency (the corona pandemic) has direct strategic and security implications. Despite the huge budgetary challenge, it is vital to maintain investment in advanced IDF military capabilities, because a nuclear confrontation with Iran is still possible.
Topic:: Security, Pandemic, Resilience, COVID-19, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

1960. Mullahs & COVID-19: Iran’s failing response reflects regime’s priorities

Author:: Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The Iranian regime’s response to the coronavirus crisis has been erratic and flailing.
Topic:: Governance, Leadership, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

1961. What we know about Iran five years after Netanyahu’s speech to Congress

Author:: Yaakov Amidror
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: We have five years of experience to compare to the competing assessments of 2015. Now we know that Netanyahu’s gloomy forecast has proven to be the more prescient.
Topic:: Security, Military Strategy, Governance, Leadership, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Israel

1962. Idlib, the next phase of the Turkish-Syrian conflict

Author:: Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Russia’s desire to woo Turkey from the West likely to prevent all-out war.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict, and Intervention
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

1963. Qatari Cash for Hamas Will Backfire on Israel

Author:: Udi Levi
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: What Happens When Hezbollah Seeks a Similar Arrangement of Quiet for Cash?
Topic:: Economics, Terrorism, Military Strategy, Hezbollah, and Hamas
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Qatar

1964. Israel’s New Diplomatic Moment

Author:: Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Trump’s peace plan calls attention to the fact that the Arab bloc that championed the Palestinian cause has collapsed.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Leadership, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

1965. How Iran funds Palestinian Islamic Jihad

Author:: Yossi Mansharof
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: PIJ is an important part of the Iranian strategy for fighting Israel. The regime in Tehran makes use of charities and other civilian organizations, such as money changers, to transfer funds to its allies in Gaza.
Topic:: Terrorism, Military Strategy, Conflict, and State Sponsored Terrorism
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

1966. After Soleimani: Iran Resumes Proxy Warfare Against the US

Author:: Yossi Mansharof
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Iran is reverting to attacks on the US through non-Iranian organizations under its control.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Conflict, Proxy War, and State Sponsored Terrorism
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

1967. Iran, Hezbollah stir chaos in Syria’s southwest

Author:: Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Behind Enemy Lines: Iran, Hezbollah and ongoing, armed resistance to Syria’s regime merge to create constant chaos.
Topic:: Terrorism, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Hezbollah
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Syria

1968. Do Syria-Turkey clashes presage a wider confrontation in the Middle East?

Author:: Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Despite Syrian-Turkish clashes this week, Moscow is set to remain the key arbiter in Syria.
Topic:: Hegemony, Conflict, Peace, and Intervention
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

1969. The “Deal of the Century” and Israel’s European Challenge

Author:: Emmanuel Navon
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Europe ought to press the Palestinians to negotiate with Israel for a demilitarized state on a territory similar in size to the pre-1967 West Bank and Gaza Strip and whose economy will be rebuilt and boosted by a $50 billion investment.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, Peace, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

1970. 15 reasons to embrace the Trump Plan

Author:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Israel should act to implement the Trump Plan and reap its early rewards, because it transforms the Mideast peace paradigm. Most importantly, the plan reflects, and can serve as a platform for, Israeli consensus on the Palestinian issue.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, Territorial Disputes, Leadership, and Peace
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

1971. Breaking the ‘everybody knows paradigm’

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Even if the Palestinians reject Trump’s peace plan, it still serves their long-term interests. False, undeliverable expectations – based on the assumption that “everybody knows” what Israel will be forced to concede – eventually need to give way to a more realistic paradigm, which in turn may lead to a better life for both sides.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, Territorial Disputes, Leadership, and Peace
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

1972. The Struggle for the Eastern Mediterranean: Israel’s Role following the Berlin Summit on Libya

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Everything short of a military confrontation needs to be done, though, to deter Erdogan from establishing a barrier diagonally across the Mediterranean, barring Cyprus, Egypt and Israel from connecting their gas infrastructure to Greece and hence to Europe.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Natural Resources, Infrastructure, Gas, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Greece, and Mediterranean

1973. Jordan will not impede the US peace plan

Author:: Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: It is convenient for Amman to have Israel retain security control over the Jordan Valley. And this is a rare opportunity to advance and potentially realize Israel’s security needs for a cemented border in the east with the support of the world’s top superpower.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Middle East and Jordan

1974. Hezbollah-dominated government emerges in Lebanon

Author:: Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The new government is the product of escalating popular protests under way since October 15. The protests are in response to Lebanon’s dire economic state.
Topic:: Economics, Military Strategy, Governance, Conflict, and Hezbollah
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

1975. Israel-Greece-Cyprus take on Turkey in the Mediterranean

Author:: Joshua Krasna
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Trilateral cooperation among Israel, Greece and Cyprus to build a natural gas subsea pipeline is setting the stage for more tensions with Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Natural Resources, Gas, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Greece, Cyprus, and Mediterranean

1976. Putin’s surprise visit to Syria

Author:: Micky Aharonson and Aiman Mansour
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Meeting with Assad sent clear messages to the countries of the region.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Bilateral Relations, Hegemony, and Intervention
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Middle East, and Syria

1977. Could Congress’ latest Syria sanctions bill backfire?

Author:: Aiman Mansour
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The congressional bill will exacerbate the economic situation in Syria and ultimately increase Syria’s dependency on Iran.
Topic:: Economics, Military Strategy, Sanctions, Legislation, and Intervention
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Syria, North America, and United States of America

1978. More pressure on Iran still needed

Author:: Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Trump has made it clear that attacks on American personnel are going to elicit a military reaction.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict, and Deterrence
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

1979. The Precarious Lull in Northeast Syria

Author:: Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: New Year, Same Chaos in Syria.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Conflict, Peace, Ceasefire, and Intervention
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

1980. Iran lacks good options

Author:: Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: What appears to have caused this escalation was the departure by the Iranians from a tacit ground rule hitherto maintained.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Conflict, Strategic Stability, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

1981. The Reemergence of Gray-Zone Warfare in Modern Conflicts

Author:: Omer Dostri
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Israel’s Struggle against Hamas’s Indirect Approach
Topic:: Terrorism, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Gray Zone
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

1982. Israel Shouldn’t Draw Fixed Lines Between Itself and China

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The Jewish state’s relationship with the U.S. is stronger for resting on an informal basis; replacing it with a formal alliance would do no good and only anger the world’s other major power.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Conflict, Peace, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, Israel, Asia, North America, and United States of America

1983. Iran’s Involvement in Syria during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Continuity or Change?

Author:: Hamidreza Azizi
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: Iran is trying to maintain its political and military position in Syria until it recovers from the impact of COVID-19. Protection of its interests via securing Damascus, driving out the military forces of the United States, and maintaining control of the areas that allow access to Lebanon (and the Eastern Mediterranean) are still priorities. The deteriorating economic situation and the slump in oil prices will most likely relax Iran’s control over its proxies in Syria, such as the Fatemiyoun and local tribes existing in Deir ez-Zor. The consolidation of the Turkish military presence in Idlib and the northeast will only make Iran more determined to expel American forces after the COVID-19 crisis subsides. The real challenge for Iran is losing the competition with Russia over influence in the security and economic sectors in Syria.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Intervention
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Syria

1984. The Impact of COVID-19 on Russia’s Middle East and Syria Policies

Author:: Leonid Isaev and Andrey Sakharov
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: May 3 rd, Russia’s COVID-19 infection rate resembled that of the United Kingdom. This situation has the potential to significantly impact the country’s financial situation, influencing the country’s foreign policy toward the Middle East. By the beginning of the lock-down period, the most optimistic forecasts for 2020 predicted a fall in the Russian economy by 4-6% of GDP.1 However, after four weeks of confinement, a decline of 6-8% was considered to be the most positive scenario, provided that it is possible to avoid a second wave for the epidemic in the autumn as predicted by the Higher School of Economics forecast. The Russian situation is complicated by the fact that the outbreak of COVID-19 coincided with the dramatic decline in oil and gas prices. The federal budget’s breakeven price for 2020 was set at $42.4 per barrel.3 However, prices by the end of March and the beginning of April went significantly lower. This means that Russia may not be able to match the predicted government spending for 2020. Moreover, its leadership may not be able to spend money as generously to advance projects serving the country’s foreign policy. Moscow, short on revenue, will unlikely take foreign policy and domestic political adventures. Foreign policy projects, primarily those that require significant budgetary expenditures in the Middle East and specifically in Syria, will be frozen. A passive Russian international engagement is expected to dominate until the end of 2020. The exception to this policy will be when a response is unavoidable. Domestic policy is likely to be just as reactive. The baseline will likely be to maintain the current state of affairs and absorb any shocks to stability given the scarcity of financial resources.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Intervention
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Middle East, and Syria

1985. The UAE’s Role in Syria’s Stability

Author:: Najla al-Qasemi
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has pursued a careful policy towards the Syrian conflict based on keeping Syrian state institutions intact and simultaneously supporting Syrian people’s aspirations. In order to maintain this balance, Abu Dhabi has relied in part on a legacy of pragmatic relations with Damascus since the 1990s. This legacy allowed Abu Dhabi to resume its diplomatic ties with Damascus with the aim of drawing it closer to its Arab neighbours when Iran’s influence over the country’s decision-making increased. In order to keep its engagement constructive, the UAE has utilised humanitarian aid since 2011 to support the Syrian people in refugee camps outside the country and within Syria especially amid the COVID-19 pandemic. The UAE however faces challenges from regional and international actors involved in the Syrian conflict.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Hegemony, and Intervention
Political Geography:: Middle East, Syria, and UAE

1986. Is the “New Normal” in Idlib Different from the “Old Normal”?: How the COVID-19 Pandemic has Affected Idlib

Author:: Serhat Erkman
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: Measures taken by the administration and the population against COVID-19 in Idlib have been insufficient. Although local health authorities were aware of dangers, they lacked the capacity to influence political and military decision-makers. Therefore, COVID-19 did not have a considerable impact on the daily life of the population and training of military groups. People still convened in open spaces and held closed meetings; markets were crowded and without adequate protection measures; mosques were crowded during the month of Ramadan and celebrations were performed as usual. As escalation and new political/social dynamics now dominate Idlib’s current agenda after the Moscow agreement, the COVID-19 pandemic is not a priority for the actors on the ground. This contribution aims to examine the activities of HTS in the context of the pandemicflict.
Topic:: Conflict, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

1987. The Impact of COVID-19 on the Military Dynamics in Northern Syria

Author:: Nikolay Surkov
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: Measures taken by the administration and the population against COVID-19 in Idlib have been insufficient. Although local health authorities were aware of dangers, they lacked the capacity to influence political and military decision-makers. Therefore, COVID-19 did not have a considerable impact on the daily life of the population and training of military groups. People still convened in open spaces and held closed meetings; markets were crowded and without adequate protection measures; mosques were crowded during the month of Ramadan and celebrations were performed as usual. As escalation and new political/social dynamics now dominate Idlib’s current agenda after the Moscow agreement, the COVID-19 pandemic is not a priority for the actors on the ground. This contribution aims to examine the activities of HTS in the context of the pandemicflict.
Topic:: Security, Military Strategy, Conflict, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

1988. COVID-19 in Turkish Controlled Areas and Idlib

Author:: Başak Yavçan
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: The safe zones in the northern part of Syria have been established following three operations in the region, namely: the Euphrates Shield in 2016, the Olive Branch in 2018, and the Peace Spring in 2019. Before the outbreak of pandemic, the healthcare capacity was semisufficient with urgent cases being treated in Turkey and with frequent hospital transfers being conducted. In terms of livelihood opportunities, humanitarian aid was predominantly channelled through Turkey with limited involvement of Western and international organisations. Trade with the outside world was limited due to the sanctions imposed on Syria. The infrastructural investment in the region was predominantly made by the Turkish state and NGOs in the form of renovations and building of schools, hospitals, as well as water and energy supply. As of May 28th, 2020, there are no confirmed cases of COVID-19 in both regions yet living conditions have deteriorated due to the conditions in Turkey, Syria and rest of the world.
Topic:: Security, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

1989. Partial Local Autonomy in Southern Syria: Conditions, Durability, and Replicability

Author:: Alexander Decina
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: In July 2018, Daraa Governorate, once home to an array of rebel groups and local governance councils, supported by significant international assistance, was partially recaptured by the Government of Syria (GoS). Through a combination of force and negotiations, the GoS has restored control over key routes and infrastructure, although a number of former rebel groups have retained limited autonomy in their own communities. Since then, poor security and economic conditions, inadequate services, and competition between and among GoS security actors and former opposition factions have challenged the status quo in Daraa, but, by and large, the situation has held. These negotiated outcomes – and the GoS’s willingness to accept them – were predicated upon multiple factors, including the relatively moderate nature of southern opposition factions, Russian and Israeli military postures, and the historical connections of the Military Intelligence Directorate (MID) in Daraa. While lessons learned from the south are important, the particular conditions and outcomes i
Topic:: Security, Governance, Local, and Autonomy
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

1990. The Battle for the Tribes in Northeast Syria

Author:: Nicholas Heras
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: Northeast Syria (NES) is fragmented under the control of different powers that are all seeking to gain the support of the local Arab tribes. Those seeking to upset the status quo include the Assad regime and its allies (Russia and Iran), Turkey and its Syrian rebel proxies, and ISIS —all seeking disruption with different motivations, yet working side by side. Those seeking to maintain the status quo include the U.S.-led Coalition, the Autonomous Administration of Northeast Syria (AANES), and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Often, earning the support and alliance of the tribes is a transactional process whereby the tribes seek direct financial support and community investment, employment opportunities, military support, and autonomy to run their own affairs. Currently, most local tribal groups are calculating that a tenuous U.S.-protected order in northeast Syria provides better security and provisions than the alternatives from the Assad regime and its allies, or by Turkey and its Syrian rebel proxies. However, ISIS remains a threat to all the powers involved in northeast Syria, and it is the major spoiler seeking to create the conditions for a return to the old order which was established under ISIS’s territorial Caliphate from 2014-2019.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Syria, North America, and United States of America

1991. Syrian National Army: Russian View

Author:: Kirill Semenov
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: In autumn 2017, the Council of the Syrian Islamic Scholars devised an initiative to unite all groups of the Syrian moderate opposition into the Syrian National Army (SNA), which was supposed to become FSA 2.0. At that time, 80% of the Syrian opposition factions, including Ahrar al-Sham and Jaysh al-Islam, as well as the majority of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) armed groups were prepared to join the SNA. It was the first time since 2012 that the FSA had managed to bring all opposition forces under its banner, and the creation of a unified military network with a common structure and command gained a new impetus. However, the SNA project was five years too late and, by the time the rebels began to merge into this new unified army, the Syrian opposition had already lost the war.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Alliance, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

1992. Russia and Issues of HTS and Tanzim Hurras ad-Din

Author:: Anton Mardasov
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: Moderate Syrian opposition includes some natives from Russia’s North Caucasus, although they are a minority. Caucasian and Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) natives were, in large part, members of the Islamic State (IS) or in some way linked to the forces formally led by Jabhat al-Nusra (JaN) and later by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Those who went to Syria and Iraq to fight can be roughly divided into two generations. The first one includes Caucasus Emirate members who responded to the call of Salafi sheikhs from Arab-Islamic centres. Natives of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kirghizia, and Turkmenistan (migrant workers, for the most part) were mainly recruited for jihad in Russia or within various diasporas across Europe.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Alliance, Conflict, and Opposition
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Middle East, and Syria

1993. Syrian People’s Council Elections 2020: The Regime’s Social Base Contracts

Author:: Ziad Awad and Agnes Favier
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: Against the backdrop of an unprecedented economic crisis, the Syrian People’s Council elections were held in July 2020, following two postponements due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Although the electoral campaign slogans launched by the candidates – especially the independents – focused on economic concerns, and made reference to charitable contributions and propaganda from the candidates, the elections failed to capture the interest of the majority of constituencies in the territories controlled by the Bashar al-Assad regime. As usual, the ruling Baath Party controls the majority of seats in the new Council. Certain marginal parties allied with the Baath are also represented within the so-called National Progressive Front (NPF), which is led by the Baath itself. Independents rank second in terms of seat numbers after the Baathists. However, partisan affiliations are of no significance in terms of stances vis-à-vis the regime, since loyalty is a non-negotiable prerequisite for all 250 MPs, and indeed all candidates. Though the Baath Party retains an absolute majority of seats in parliament (66.8%), the elections demonstrated the inability of its leadership to revive the Party as an effective political tool capable of exercising influence by itself. First, the primaries for selecting Party candidates were marked by limited participation, accusations of corruption and widespread objections within the Party. Second, the parliamentary elections saw a historically low turnout (33%), illustrating the Party's inability to mobilise the electorate. Finally, attempts to renew the Baathist bloc in the People's Council resulted in the rise of military and paramilitary figures (with the entry into parliament of retired army and police officers); a growing influence of capital (with higher numbers of businessmen MPs); and the emergence of centres of power outside the traditional Party structure (with the entry of charity and development activists, backed by First Lady Asma al-Assad). This heterogeneity within the Baath’s parliamentary bloc illustrates the reality of the Party today, which appears weaker than it was before the outbreak of the revolution.
Topic:: Governance, Elections, Democracy, and Local
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

1994. Bridging Geneva and Astana: The Best Hope for Sustained De-escalation in Syria

Author:: Mona Yacoubian
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: As the conflict in Syria approaches its tenth anniversary, a holistic political settlement encompassing the entirety of the country is unlikely in the near to medium term. More than eight years of diplomatic initiatives have yielded only limited results. The two principal tracks – the Geneva and the Astana/Sochi processes – are running up against the complexity of the conflict and an emboldened Assad regime; neither process is sufficient on its own to generate momentum towards a lasting political settlement for the whole of Syria. However, creatively bridging these two processes could bring greater stability to those areas of Syria still beyond the Assad regime’s control, assuaging the suffering of some Syrians, and potentially serving as a building block for a longer-term settlement. Barring a major strategic shift in diplomacy, developments on the ground could render both diplomatic efforts obsolete. Instead, negotiation efforts should pivot to develop innovative approaches to bridge the Geneva and Astana processes. This bridging effort would focus on consolidating fragile ceasefires in Syria’s northwest and northeast regions, and anchoring some semblance of stability in these areas through improved humanitarian access and enhancing local governance structures.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Conflict, Peace, and Escalation
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

1995. Syria in the US and Israeli debate on Iran

Author:: Shira Efron
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: With presidential elections in the United States underway in November 2020[1], the only possible scenarios for Washington in the Middle East are either continuation and solidification, or a change in its Iran policy, each with different potential impacts on the geopolitical conflict between the United States, Israel, and allied Arab countries on one side and Iran and its regional Axis-of-Resistance on the other. Analysing current convergences and divergences between the United States and Israel on Syria and Iran is important to anticipate potential changes in both countries’ positions following the US election, as such changes may impact the effectiveness and even the prospect of the continuation of the United States’ so-called ‘Maximum Pressure’ campaign. The policies of the two countries on Syria and Iran became varyingly intertwined as Iran entrenched itself deeply in Syria. Nonetheless, it is important to note that Israel and the United States differ in their approaches to tackling Syria. This contribution attempts to assess the US campaign against Iran, the cost it is likely to have inflicted upon it in Syria, and the outlook of an agreement with Iran. Although we are considering US policy on Iran, the analysis here also includes the Israeli perspective. Private conversations with Israeli current and former officials have provided important insights into how Israeli officials see US policy in Syria and vis-à-vis Iran, and can add a unique contribution to the dialogue. In this analysis, we sought to address several issues. First, whether there are any incentives for Iran to concede to US demands or reach a meaningful bargain, and whether under a Biden or Trump administration a new Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) could be renegotiated to include Iranian expansion in the region. We also examined the form and incentives structure that could entice Iran to offer a constructive contribution to the stability of Syria and the region. In addition, we assessed to what extent the Maximum Pressure campaign affects Iran, and whether targeting Syria with sanctions would incentivise both the Syrian government and the Syrian locals (who are working with Iran as fighters) to break with Iran. Finally, assuming that Iran is in Syria to protect its own interests, we question whether more threats to Tehran would lead to reduced presence in Syria.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Governance, Elections, and Leadership
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Syria, North America, and United States of America

1996. The Syrian National Army (SNA): Structure, Functions, and Three Scenarios for its Relationship with Damascus

Author:: Omer Ozkizilcik
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: The Syrian National Army (SNA) is officially part of the Syrian Interim Government (SIG) and responds to the Ministry of Defense (MoD). Abdurrahman Mustafa, the President of the SIG, and Selim Idris, the Minister of Defense, oversee the SNA. Idris is also the Chief of Staff of the SNA. The SNA is then further divided into legions and factions. The commanders of the three key legions of the SNA, namely Muataz Raslan, Mahmud el-Baz, and Abu Ahmad Nour, are responsible for all of the factions of their legion. The fourth, fifth, sixth, and seventh legions are organised under the National Liberation Front (NLF). Each faction commander is officially under the legion’s command, though each legion’s number of factions vary, and each legion commander makes decisions as a representative of their legion in coordination with Selim Idris, the commanders of the other legions, and the council. The council is made up of SNA faction leaders who each maintain their own autonomous area and thus can exercise significant power. Therefore, most decisions need explicit or at least tacit approval from them. The SNA’s Chief of Staff and the MoD have different offices operating autonomously from the factions of the SNA and only respond to Selim Idris. The SNA is additionally composed of eight offices (figure 1): The media office, the military court office, the military police, the guidance counselors’ office, the finance office, the administration and organisation office, the operational office, and the training office.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Military Affairs, Leadership, and Autonomy
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

1997. Security, Stability, and Counter-Terrorism in Idlib: A Turkish Perspective

Author:: Serhat Erkmen
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: In Idlib, armed groups can be categorized under three conglomerates: Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Syrian National Army (SNA), and radicals led by Hurras al-Deen (HaD). Among these three anti-government groups, HTS is the strongest one. Though the SNA’s Idlib branch has more manpower than other groups, HTS has superiority in terms of discipline, organisation and weaponry.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Military Strategy, Governance, Counter-terrorism, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

1998. Russia’s Increasing Stalemate in Southwest Syria

Author:: Alexey L. Khlebnikov
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: The town and province of Daraa in southwest Syria is known for being a “cradle of the Syrian revolution”. Six years after the start of the Syrian uprising, it has been included in one of the four de-escalation zones that Russia established in Syria striking deals between different opposition armed groups and Damascus, with the consent of external actors. The southwest de-escalation zone is comprised of three provinces – Daraa, al-Suwaida, and al-Quneitra – whose proximity to Israel has been a crucial factor in Moscow’s strategy in the region. The southwest Syria de-escalation zone has several peculiarities that make it distinct from the other zones, in particular its geography, i.e. its proximity to Israel, which has defined Russia’s very special and nuanced approach to it. At the same time, the Russian approach to dealing with the armed opposition groups within the zone was similar to the groups in other de-escalation zones. So, what makes Russia’s approach different?
Topic:: Security, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Middle East, and Syria

1999. The Syrian National Army: Formation, Challenges, and Outlook

Author:: Nawar Shaban
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: On 30 December 2017, the Syrian Interim Government (SIG) announced the establishment of the Syrian National Army (SNA). The main goal was to unite all military factions that fought as part of the Euphrates Shield and Olive Branch military operations against the Islamic State (IS) and the Democratic Union Party (PYD). In October 2019, and prior to the launch of Operation Peace Spring in the east of the Euphrates, the merger of the National Liberation Front (NLF) and the SNA was announced, through an official ceremony in the presence of the SIG officials in Şanlıurfa, Turkey. This discussion paper aims to clarify the key difficulties that have faced the SNA since its foundation until now. The paper will also outline potential scenarios for the SNA in future military and political realities. Figure 1 and Table 1 give an idea on the SNA’s areas of control and that of rivalling local and international actors in Aleppo, Idlib, and al-Raqqa.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Military Affairs, Leadership, and Civil-Military Relations
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

2000. The Eighth Brigade: Striving for Supremacy in Southern Syria

Author:: Abdullah Al-Jabassini
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: In June 2018, the Syrian regime forces backed by Russia launched a military offensive that aimed at terminating rebel rule and restoring control over southern Syria. By August 2018, Daraa’s rebel organisations were pushed to surrender under a “patchwork” strategy, including Russian-led negotiations between regime and opposition figures, and the Syrian regime’s use of armed force. The two fundamentally divergent approaches have demarcated three main zones in which the regime’s authority and thus the roles former rebels come to play in the post-rebellion period vary significantly. In eastern Daraa, Russia established the Eighth Brigade, a sub-division of the Fifth Corps, and entrusted Ahmad al-Oda, a former rebel leader, with its command. By incorporating former rebels in the Eighth Brigade’s ranks, Russia, in fact, intended to establish a local armed actor characterised by a wide margin of manoeuvre to handle local security affairs and inflict acceptable and monitored small-scale violence to limit the regime’s authority and to keep Iranian influence at bay, thereby limiting status quo violations. For more than two years, the Eighth Brigade has limited the regime’s authority, served as a bulwark against Iranian expansion, intervened to defuse tensions, and mediated to prevent wide-scale regime-led military offensives against several localities, all of which are Russia’s top priorities to maintain the status quo in the south. Nevertheless, the Eighth Brigade has been mired in struggles to overcome and mitigate top four interrelated challenges. First, the absence of official recognition by the Syrian Ministry of Defence. Second, the ambitions of Iran and its proxies in southern Syria. Third, the intermittent cyclical patterns of retaliations with local armed groups in neighbouring province of Sweida. Fourth, the ongoing rivalries among former rebel leaders.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Governance, Local, Peace, and Intervention
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Middle East, and Syria

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS