Political Geography: Middle East / Publication Year: within 10 Years / Topic:

1201. Americans Split on Military Aid to Israel, Say Political Status Quo Unacceptable

Author:: Dina Smeltz and Emily Sullivan
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: Ahead of Prime Minister Bennett's first visit to Washington, Council data show partisan divides on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, support for a Palestinian state, and more. In recent years, the US-Israel relationship was stewarded by Israel’s longest-serving leader, former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and the man whom he referred to as “the greatest friend that Israel has ever had in the White House,” former President Donald Trump. This week, the first meeting between the two countries’ newly elected leaders, President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, will set the tone for a new era of US-Israel relations. New data from the 2021 Chicago Council Survey indicate that some differences in ideas about US policy toward Israel on Capitol Hill—heightened by the 11-day clash between Israel and Hamas last May—have corresponding divisions among the American public. The US public is sharply divided along partisan lines on key issues, including whether to take a side in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, support for a Palestinian state, and restrictions on the uses of military aid to Israel. Moreover, it’s not just Americans who are at odds with each other. A comparison of the recent Chicago Council Survey and a Viterbi Family Center poll shows that the American public and Jewish Israelis have opposing views on what might be acceptable solutions to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, while Israeli Arabs and Americans are broadly aligned on acceptable political outcomes.
Topic:: Politics, Foreign Aid, Military Affairs, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North Africa, and United States of America

1202. Disappointed in Rouhani, Iranians Seek a Different Sort of Leader in June Elections

Author:: Brendan Helm, Dina Smeltz, and Amir Farmanesh
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: New indirect talks between the United States and Iran on a return to the Iran deal could help the outlook for a moderate candidate in the next election. Iranian presidential elections are set for June 18. The current president, Hassan Rouhani, who earned initial praise in Iran after successful negotiations for the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015, is ineligible for reelection and has steadily lost public support after the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal in 2018. A joint survey of the Iranian public conducted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and IranPoll provides insights into how Iranians view this pivotal moment for Iran. Iranians view Rouhani’s policies quite negatively, especially his economic policies, and for their next leader they want someone who is critical of Rouhani. However, while Iranians did not feel the economic improvements from the JCPOA they expected, new indirect talks between the United States and Iran on a return to the agreement could help the outlook for a moderate candidate.
Topic:: Politics, Elections, and Negotiation
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

1203. Arab Youth Futures: No Lost Generation

Author:: Florence Gaub
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:: Young Arabs (those aged between 15 and 35) are often seen as a generation beset by hopelessness, stuck between dreams of emigration and the reality of violence and unemployment. This impression does not come out of nowhere: the last decade took a heavy toll on this generation – it was during their childhood and adolescence, between 2013 and 2019, that the region suffered the highest number of terrorism casualties, that three wars interrupted the education of 13 million children and that riots and repression led to economic losses of $600 billion following the Arab Spring. But how much does this generation feel that they can change matters and create a better future? Answering this question was the main objective of a survey co-organised by the EUISS, the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Arab Research and Advocacy Bureau. Conducted in Egypt, Libya, Morocco and the West Bank of the Palestinian Territories between January and April 2021, the survey was based on qualitative focus-group discussions and interviews with young urban dwellers, allowing for a deeper understanding of how this generation truly feels about the future. The selected countries were chosen because access to them was most feasible in terms of financial resources and political stability. The survey asked about a sense of agency – the feeling of mastering one’s own fate–, about the respondents’ general disposition towards the future – whether characterised by optimism or pessimism – and about their key grievances. The results belie the perception that young people in the region have a negative vision of the future, instead highlighting a determination to live more independent autonomous lives, a relative optimism (unusual in younger generations – optimism is normally a feature of older age groups), and concerns over issues that will be of particular importance in their future, such as healthcare and political representation. This shift in attitudes towards the future may be ascribed to a combination of several factors: longer life cycles, education, digital connectivity, the Arab Spring and its aftershocks have all spawned a generation that want to be in charge of their own lives rather than passive spectators of events beyond their control. This means that regional governments, and Europeans wishing to assist them, will have to provide the space and opportunity for this generation to realise their ambitions. The Brief first analyses the survey findings on agency and optimism, then takes a look at the most important grievances, and concludes with policy implications.
Topic:: Government, Youth, and Survey
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arab Countries, and North Africa

1204. Creativity Wanted: Countering the extraterritorial effects of US sanctions

Author:: Clara Portela
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:: Scarcely familiar with sanctions as a policy tool, much of the European public has followed the headlines about international sanctions with some puzzlement. After the UN lifted sanctions on Iran following the conclusion of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), why was it necessary to create a channel for bilateral trade, the Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges (INSTEX), following the US withdrawal from the deal in 2018? Why is Iran insisting that the US lift sanctions ‘in practice, not verbally or on paper’? How did the US Senate approval of new legislation targeting Nord Stream 2, a pipeline under construction between Russia and Germany, bring work to an immediate standstill in late 2019? Why do European banks and private companies fear the US Department of the Treasury’s sanctions enforcement agency, the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC)? If sanctions regimes are endowed with humanitarian exemptions, why do humanitarian agencies report difficulties in getting aid to places like Syria ? As it turns out, these are ramifications of the same phenomenon: the extraterritorial effects of US sanctions. The present Brief examines these effects, describing why they pose a challenge to the EU. It then outlines the responses that have been activated or are being contemplated to counter them, explaining why an effective remedy remains elusive. The Brief concludes by indicating possible ways forward.
Topic:: Humanitarian Aid, United Nations, Sanctions, and Transnational Actors
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Syria, and North America

1205. Curse or Blessing? How cheap oil influences conflict dynamics

Author:: Matteo Ilardo
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:: When the price of oil goes down, there is often a sigh of relief among oil-importing countries, as cheap oil means a boost for the economy and increased savings for consumers and businesses. As a result, most of Europe tends to notice price shocks only when prices go up: consumers are squeezed while producers accumulate enormous wealth. Yet, for oil-exporting countries cheap oil means increased poverty and tighter budgets – a recipe for instability and conflict. This Conflict Series Brief analyses the effects of the recent pandemic-induced oil price shock on three vulnerable, conflict-affected countries. This is done by testing the two competing theories of the resource curse and of the rentier state, each offering a different interpretation of the oil-conflict nexus: The resource curse theory posits that an abundance of natural resources, and in particular oil, raises the probability, frequency, and intensity of conflict. The rentier state theory sees the presence of oil as having a positive effect on peace, as regimes use revenues to either buy off political opposition or suppress it. The recent price crash and its effects on conflicts in South Sudan, Libya and Iraq provide empirical support to the analysis. This Brief argues that both the stabilising and destabilising mechanisms identified in the two grand narratives are simultaneously at play in oil-rich countries. It shows that oil prices occupy a central role in determining which theory provides the most accurate outcome prediction. As a result, we hope to get a better understanding of the often-counterintuitive role that the resource plays in the onset of civil war. Building on the experience of the 2020 pandemic price plunge, the Brief ends with an overview of the future challenges that cheap oil will entail for producers and for Europe as oil demand peaks and the world moves away from fossil fuels.
Topic:: Civil War, Energy Policy, Oil, War, Natural Resources, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, and North Africa

1206. How the Islamic State Sees the Future: Why the end of times does not mean the end

Author:: Florence Gaub
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:: One would not exactly think of the Islamic State (IS) as a future-oriented organisation: it uses medieval-sounding language and barbaric methods and preaches an archaic lifestyle. In reality, however, it is very much a forward-looking organisation with clear ideas not just on what the future will bring, but on what it should bring. In fact, it is this attitude towards the future that has not only enabled its past successes, but also allowed the organisation to persist and endure since losing its territory in Syria and Iraq – and, most importantly, what will determine its next steps and ambition. Understanding how IS conceives its own future will enable law enforcement authorities to take the necessary precautions ahead of time. This Brief first outlines why it is crucial to understand how the future as an organising principle shapes the strategy and posture of terrorist organisations, and shows that terrorist organisations lacking such a concept will lose traction faster than those that do. It goes on to examine IS’s future concept pre-and post-loss of its territory and to elaborate why it was and is an attractive future. Lastly, it seeks to anticipate the future trajectory IS will take based on its articulation of an eschatological vision of the future.
Topic:: Terrorism, Islamic State, and Future
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, North Africa, and Syria

1207. La Guardia de la Revolución Islámica Iraní: análisis de su naturaleza, poder y cometidos (The Iranian Revolutionary Guard: Analysis of its Nature, Power and Tasks)

Author:: Javier Ruiz Arévalo
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: Founded after the triumph of the Islamic Revolution, the Corps of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard of Iran has evolved far beyond its original foundations as an ideological guardian of the nascent revolutionary regime. Today, it functions as a socio-political-economic conglomerate, whose influence extends to all areas of Iranian life. Its members have articulated a vision of the Islamic Republic that they feel committed to defending, becoming guarantors of the ideological purity of the regime whose supreme leader rests on its support, while increasingly depending on it to survive.
Topic:: Islam, Ideology, Revolution, and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC)
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

1208. Social Contracts: A Pathway for More Inclusive Societies

Author:: Erin McCandless
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:: States and societies are in crisis around the world, as questions arise around the nature and quality of existing social contracts. COVID-19 has laid bare profound vulnerabilities within and across societies. The global pandemic is revealing deep failures in policy visions, institutional fragility, and incapacities of states to harness societal compliance where trust and a sense of national belonging is weak. At the same time, our interdependencies have never been so clear, as all countries, developed and underdeveloped alike, confront similar challenges. Crisis, however, offers opportunity to do things better, to build forward better – strengthening social contracts at all levels. How then, can social contracts, and compacting in times of crisis, offer pathways to address inequality and exclusion? This paper considers how social contracts can offer frameworks to foster new thinking and shape transformative policy to build more inclusive societies. Such frameworks should tie bold new policy visions to robust and resilient institutional arrangements that uproot harmful structural legacies with lasting effect for inclusive and peaceful societies. They must also offer means to address material conditions of inequality, and those related to recognition, identity, and dignity. The cases of South Africa, Tunisia, Colombia, and South Korea reveal that, while not easy nor predictable, such pathways exist. Key findings in this briefing include: Inequality and exclusion stem from policy choices and are fueled by corruption; they undermine foundations of inclusive and resilient national social contracts, e.g. trust in government and societal willingness to consent to difficult policy choices; Participation in formal electoral processes is declining while protest is rising, indicating a lack of faith in existing politics and institutional mechanisms for resolving conflict and fostering consensual politics; and Civil society movements in and across countries are advancing more inclusive social contracts that tackle vulnerability and risk through a variety of innovative means that deserve greater support.
Topic:: Peace, Justice, Social Contract, COVID-19, and Inclusion
Political Geography:: Middle East, East Asia, South Africa, and Latin America

1209. Seeing in the Dark: Real-Time Monitoring in Humanitarian Crises

Author:: Daniel Maxwell, Erin Lentz, Kamau Wanjohi, Daniel Molla, Matthew Day, Peter Hailey, Christopher Newton, and Anna Colom
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Feinstein International Center, Tufts University
Abstract:: Humanitarian information systems typically provide analysis to predict crisis, assess needs, direct program resources, and assess short- to medium-term effects of programs. But much of this information is “chunky”—a single estimate of “needs,” for example, can be expected to direct resources and programming for up to a full year (IASC 2020). A single early warning scenario might be expected to provide information about potential hazards and the exposure of population to the ill-effects of that hazard for three to four months. And almost by definition, early warning analyses are grounded in known and likely hazards, “population in need” (PIN) figures are based on the impacts of known shocks, and program resources are (or should be) allocated on the basis of known and projected PIN figures. There have long been questions about the timeliness of humanitarian information and especially about the extent to which information initiates appropriate and timely actions (Buchanan-Smith and Davies 1995; Bailey 2012; Lentz et al. 2020). And there have always been concerns that circumstances can change in shorter time periods than standard humanitarian analysis procedures can pick up, so interest in real-time monitoring (RTM) as a component of humanitarian information systems has increased for at least the past decade or so (FSNAU 2015).
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Humanitarian Aid, Famine, Food Security, Humanitarian Intervention, Conflict, and Nutrition
Political Geography:: Middle East, Yemen, Somalia, Malawi, South Sudan, and Africa

1210. President Biden: Try for a Double Play on Iran and Afghanistan

Author:: Jon Greenwald
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Council on International Policy (CIP)
Abstract:: Southwest Asia is increasingly dangerous. Negotiations about Iran’s nuclear program appear stuck near a breakpoint. With the Kabul government’s precipitous collapse, President Biden’s courageous decision to remove U.S. troops from Afghanistan has gone badly. Each situation threatens grave consequences for the administration. Together they suggest more deadly chaos looms from the Middle East to China’s borders. Iran is an important common factor, central to the first case, important in the second due to geography and potential leverage. The concurrence of threat – but also perhaps opportunity – justifies a new strategy for dealing with it that cuts across both situations. Joe Biden said before taking office that it was a priority to restore the nuclear deal that was working well until Donald Trump took the U.S. out. He pledged to conclude the endless war in Afghanistan. Today neither objective appears promising. Iran has more enriched and closer to weapons level uranium than when the original deal was signed. U.S. officials acknowledge that negotiating time is limited and, by implication, that military action may be required to keep the president’s pledge never to allow an Iranian bomb. As the Taliban takes over Afghanistan, Washington is focused as it should be on safely extracting U.S. citizens and the many thousands of Afghans whose lives are at risk for having helped the Americans over 20 years. Soon, however, there will be new proposals, including preparations for off-shore responses to what many anticipate will be a revival of the kind of civil war that ravaged Afghanistan in the 1990s. Any reasonable proposal should include at the least a significant diplomatic component in which Afghanistan’s neighbors, Iran prominent among them, apply their weight to persuade the Taliban to rule more moderately than it did its first time in power and in particular to keep out international terrorists. Most acknowledge that a key weakness of that approach is U.S. inability to work with Tehran.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

1211. Afghanistan: Before Time Runs Out

Author:: Owen Kirby
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Council on International Policy (CIP)
Abstract:: The withdrawal of remaining U.S. and NATO troops in Afghanistan is nearly complete. As they go, the country begins a new, uncertain chapter in a long uncertain history. With the U.S. and our allies having made significant investments and great sacrifices in an attempt to develop self-sustaining Afghan institutions – and the Taliban now rampaging through the countryside – this is the moment of truth for the country’s government and post-9/11 political order. Whether Afghanistan’s institutions, security forces, and civil society prove sufficiently resilient to meet current challenges is not solely a matter of local capacity and resolve (or wisdom of previous donor decisions). Nor is it a matter of free choice between competing political views, as Afghans are not going to the voting booth to decide the outcome. It is equally about the commitment of the U.S. and our allies to continue supporting the equality of Afghan women and minorities, rule of law, free speech, and basic human rights. These are not foreign impositions, as some might argue, but rather vital weapons, absent U.S. troops, in the Afghan people’s own struggle against extremism and political regression. For many, there is justifiable fatigue with America’s “forever war” and its costs; but the Taliban’s repressive rule and its consequences are not a specter of another lifetime. It has only been 20 years since Afghan girls were banned from going to school; women barred from the workforce and life outside the home; and summary justice, including stoning and decapitation, for transgressions against the Taliban’s medieval code meted out in the national stadium. It has only been 17 years since Afghans were first given the constitutional right to choose their leadership at the ballot box. Progress is recent, and the Taliban is determined to make it reversible.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, Military Strategy, Transition, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

1212. Israel-Palestine: Renaissance of a Two-State Solution

Author:: Jon Greenwald
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Council on International Policy (CIP)
Abstract:: Though my favorite baseball team in Kansas City was always weak, a local columnist used to write every spring that it would win the championship. I know something of hope’s unreliability as a basis for prediction. But I offer this: there will be a serious chance for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian dispute within five years. An agreement for Jewish and Arab states to live side-by-side between the Mediterranean and the Jordan River seems increasingly improbable. Last month’s fighting between Israel and the Hamas movement that controls Gaza and simultaneous riots and brutalities between Jews and Arabs within Israel have created a near consensus that the Oslo Process to reach that objective is dead. Fair enough. Neither side has a leadership or constituency with commitment or capability to conclude that deal. The lack of interest Israel showed under Bibi Netanyahu will not change under a conflicted coalition government dominated by right-wing parties favoring more de facto annexation of Palestinian land. Nor are the Palestinians in better shape. Their bitterly divided movements are uninterested in a unified approach to their national problem. President Abbas is in the 17th year of a four-year term. His Fatah, riddled with corruption, has little legitimacy on the West Bank, while Hamas, its popularity renewed by fighting Israel, is less inclined than ever for diplomacy. Ever fewer Israelis and Palestinians believe two states are feasible, and their notions of a single state alternative differ wildly. No serious politician in Israel or Palestine, much less in Washington, will propose a comprehensive initiative this year or next. Nevertheless, a sea change is underway. Israel has long largely been spared terrorism thanks to the separation barrier and security cooperation afforded by the Palestinian Authority. Fighting with Hamas is only a periodic disturbance. The Palestinian issue featured in no recent election, and Israelis had begun to think they could ignore it, that because the Sunni Arab world wanted an anti-Iran front, they could escape regional isolation without cost to their occupation policy.
Topic:: Territorial Disputes, Conflict, Borders, and State Building
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

1213. Israel’s 2021 election: Another deadlock in a vote on identity, the role of religion, and Bibi

Author:: Timo R. Stewart
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Israel’s two-year government crisis was not conclusively resolved in the 23 March election. Netanyahu has led the country to the right, but the prime minister remains a divisive figure also within the right. The stalemate might give Israeli Arab parties slightly greater heft than before.
Topic:: Elections, Political Parties, Partisanship, and Electoral Systems
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

1214. Afghanistan and the Rise of the Islamic Emirate: A Tragic Inevitability

Author:: Olli Ruohomäki
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: It is time to come to terms with the inevitable fact that the Taliban is here to stay for the foreseeable future. The international community must not abandon ordinary Afghans and resign them to a bleak future with hard-line Islamists in power.
Topic:: Governance, Taliban, Violent Extremism, State Building, and Militant Islam
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Middle East

1215. Legitimacy and Significance of Art. 2A in the Constitution of Islamic Republic of Pakistan, 1973

Author:: Naveed Ahmed, Nawaz Khan, and Bakht Munir
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Religion is a nearly common institution in humanity. It is found in all societies past and present. All the prehistoric societies have the influence of religions in their societies. Religion goes back to commencement of the culture itself. There is no primeval society without religion. It is social treatise that deals with familiarity and restraint. Religion is concerned with the shared beliefs and practices of human being. Allah being creator of this universe delegates his authority to those who owes it as a sacred trust in order to maintain peace and justice on this earth as per his commandments. Islam is an ideology sanctioned by revealed law. It is a way of life universal, humanitarian, eternal and egalitarian based on equality, fraternity, justice and liberty. Now, it is the duty of the state as well as the people of Pakistan to resort to the golden rules of Islam as enunciated by the Holy Quran and Muhammad (PBUH), in all fields of life. The key concern of this research is to evaluate the legitimacy of Art. 2A in the constitution of Pakistan and how is it practiced in Pakistan?
Topic:: Religion, Arts, Culture, Constitution, and Legitimacy
Political Geography:: Pakistan and Middle East

1216. Rural-Urban Migration in South Asia: A Case Study of Pakistan

Author:: Aliya Naz and Farzana Naheed Khan
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The recent estimates suggest that South Asia is the least urbanized region in the world, however, Pakistan is one of the most urbanized countries in this region. Rural-urban migration is considered the main cause of urbanization and an inherent part of economic development process. Therefore, this study examines the determinants of rural-urban migration in Pakistan and utilizes two waves of Labour Force Survey of Pakistan (2006 & 2018). The study finds that there are various determinants of migration such as age, gender, marital status and education but higher levels of education appear to be important determinants of migration. This finding suggests that migration decision is positively linked to the human capital embodied in the individual. Therefore, policy makers should focus on the provision of higher education institutions. So, people may contribute to their own development as well as to the development of the country.
Topic:: Education, Migration, Labor Issues, Urban, and Rural
Political Geography:: Pakistan and Middle East

1217. Reviving Pak-Russia Relations: Implications for CPEC

Author:: Hafeez Ullah Khan
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Moscow and Islamabad have experienced many ups and downs throughout the past, but recent Russia Pakistan military and economic cooperation can be comprehended as significant progress in their relationship. As CPEC is a signatory sign of the Sino-Pak relationship, this paper seeks to analyze the need for Russia to be a part of CPEC as its inclusion in the project will also be significant for the regional integration and it will, even more, strengthen the relations of Beijing, Islamabad, and Moscow that will eventually build a new bloc. In addition, by giving the theoretical framework of complex interdependence theory, how Russia and Pakistan can work together in this project. Also, if Russia becomes a part of CPEC, how it can be helpful to eradicate all the apprehension which have been imposed by different entities to defame this project.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Peace
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Russia, Europe, and Middle East

1218. Indo-Iran Relations in the Changing Regional Environment Implications for South Asia

Author:: Shehzada Afzal and Nazir Hussain
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: International relations are determined by systemic and structural factors at the global, regional and state/domestic levels. Inter-state relations require common interests, shared goals, inter-related threat perception and eminent security challenges. Indo-Iranian relations have been on a progressive trajectory since the beginning of current century; their relations are focussed on political, economic, security and strategic spheres. As an emerging major power, India intends to enhance its influence across regions. This paper attempts to examine how Indo-Iranian relations have shaped up over the years. How convergence of interests by these two far-off neighbors have developed to join and cooperate in economic, political and social domains. For Pakistan, any development on its eastern and western borders holds important bearing on its national security; therefore, what new challenges are posed by Indo-Iranian relations in the changing regional environment of South Asia.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Peace, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: Iran, South Asia, Indonesia, Middle East, and Asia

1219. Afghanistan: The Possible Arena for Major Powers Inevitable Cooperation

Author:: Suman Naz and Zafar Nawaz Jaspal
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Afghanistan has been a center of a struggle between major powers since the 19th century. In 2001, the fight against terrorism had sparked a new power struggle among local, regional, and international Afghanistan actors. Various state and non-state players with conflicting perspectives and conflicting approaches are trying to pursue their strategic, political, and economic goals in Afghanistan. Due to similar security threats, complex economic interdependence, and economic liberalism, different scenarios may emerge in Afghanistan, leading to the potential collaboration of major global and regional powers in Afghanistan. This partnership can be expanded for several logics and reasons, among which security comes first. The peace treaty concluded between the United States and the Taliban on February 29, 2020. The continuing peace process via intra-Afghan peace talks with regional states has fortified hopes for peace in Afghanistan through cooperative measures among major regional and international powers.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, Terrorism, Military Strategy, and War on Terror
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Middle East

1220. Media and Political Socialization in Pakistan: A Study of Rural and Urban Areas

Author:: Hamayun Masood and Malik Adnan
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The aim of this study is to describe the media interference scenario in the political socialization process of Pakistan. The role of media is not limited to stipulate new skills but also reinforces the social and cultural change and at the same time contributes in political socialization process. The study is conducted in the provinces of Pakistan including Balochistan, KPK, Punjab, Sindh and the capital city of the state (Islamabad). The multi- stage random sampling method is adopted and the total of 2000 respondents was chosen. 1000 of the respondents are male and 1000 are female and the proportion from each equality is equal like 1000 respondents from urban areas and 1000 respondents from rural areas. The minimum age limit for the respondents was chosen based on the minimum vote casting age limit. The analysis of gathered data is conducted through SPSS and the findings are described in tabular form. The two theories 'Agenda Setting and Knowledge Gap Hypothesis' are combined for evaluating study. Survey method is adopted for the study to collect quantitative data via questionnaire that included 49 questions. For testing hypothesis of the study, Chi-Square tool of statistics is used. The findings revealed that media is among the most influential and effective agents of political socialization and the consumption of different media tools encourage people to participate in political activities. Further, the urban area people are found to be more politically socialized as compare to the people of rural areas. Therefore, easy and equal accessibility of media can make political socialization process more powerful.
Topic:: Communications, Mass Media, Media, Urban, Rural, and Participation
Political Geography:: Pakistan and Middle East

1221. The Weight of Words and Limit to Freedom of Expression: A Journalists’ Perspective in Pakistan

Author:: Savera Shami, Ayesha Ashfaq, Shazia Ismail Toor, and Uzair Hassan
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Freedom of Expression is one of the most widely protected and debated constitutional right. It can be traced in almost all parts of the world. When it comes to guarding basic rights and especially with respect to freedom of expression it is also protected in Pakistan‟s constitution. The Article 19 of Constitution of Pakistan defends the right to freedom of expression of its citizens but freedom of expression is still not being a cherished idea in Pakistan. Therefore. this study is designed to understand the factors influencing the freedom of expressions in Pakistani media. This study also aims to investigate the role of pressure groups in cribbing media freedom of expression. To fulfill the purpose of the study, survey method is used, 100 Lahore based Journalists who are working in electronic media are selected through simple random sampling. The responses of the journalists are analyzed under agenda setting theory. This study concludes that Pakistan media is not working freely. Journalists in Pakistan agree that they face restrictions from pressure groups. According to them, Military and political groups are the strongest pressure group that influence the freedom of expression in Pakistani journalists. As this research points out the impact of pressure groups on media content and also indicates that how media content is mold according to the perception of pressure groups.
Topic:: Media, Constitution, Freedom of Expression, and Journalism
Political Geography:: Pakistan and Middle East

1222. The Antiquity of Public Relations in South Asia: A Historical Perspective on the Evolution of Public Relations in Pakistan

Author:: Mudassir Mukhtar and Waseem Ishaque
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Applying a historical lens, this article describes public relations presence from ancient to modern times in Pakistan. The article is based on a descriptive analysis of the available literature of public relations scholarship in Pakistan. Pakistan inherited public relations from British colonial powers and early growth of the field in the country is widely affected by this legacy. Later, post modernistic traditions and globalizations created its impact on the patterns of professional recognition and maturity of the profession of public relations. Although the field has evolved professionally in Pakistan, but the craft PR practices are still on the rise as compare professional practices that hold a less share in public sector but witness a major portion of practice prominently in private sector corporations.
Topic:: Post Colonialism, Colonialism, Public Relations, Modernization, and Professionalism
Political Geography:: Pakistan and Middle East

1223. Predictors of Fake News Sharing on Social Media during COVID-19 in South Asia: Evidence from Pakistan

Author:: Malik Adnan, Muhammad Bilal Nawaz, and Rao Shahid Mahood Khan
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Spread of fake news has been rapidly increased in recent months and the determinants that lead the sharing of misleading information is not well studied. Henceforth, this study analyzes the result of a Pakistani sample (n=385) regarding proliferation of fake news regarding COVID-19. This phenomenon was studied by using uses and gratification framework it was extended by the altruistic motivation. An explanatory research design was followed, data was collected through questionnaire based on prior studies and respondents were approached through different social media websites and answers were collected through Google forms by following convenient sampling technique. Acquired responses were analyzed through regression model to investigate the magnitude of effects among the six categories of study on the result of fake news sharing. Findings showed that altruistic motivation was the main predictor of fake news sharing of COVID-19. Furthermore, other predictors i.e. motivation for information sharing, socialization gratification, motivation for seeking information and passing time were contributing in sharing fake news about COVID-19, while no relationship was found between entertainment motivation. This research suggested some theoretical and practical implications.
Topic:: Media, Social Media, News Analysis, Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Fake News
Political Geography:: Pakistan and Middle East

1224. China, Pakistan, and Afghanistan: Partnership for Regional Peace

Author:: Mariam Tahir and Nazir Hussain
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: This paper examines the prospects of strategic partnership for regional peace between China, Pakistan and Afghanistan through their mutual geopolitical interests. Chinese involvement with Afghanistan serves as a key factor in the successful implementation of its economic outreach through Central and South Asian segments of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as it helps to rebalance China’s economic and political aspirations. The paper also highlights the implications of China’s relations with Pakistan and Afghanistan to counter Indian influence in the region. The trilateral relationship between these countries is of paramount importance for regional peace and security. Afghanistan is the most unstable country in the region; however Chinese constructive engagement with Afghanistan through diplomatic, political, economic and security measures can usher into a new era of peace, progress and development for the entire region.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Peace, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, China, Middle East, and Asia

1225. Power play: Europe’s climate diplomacy in the Gulf

Author:: Cinzia Bianco
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: Gulf monarchies believe hydrocarbons will continue to be a fundamental – albeit shrinking – source of revenues for decades. But, as shown by Saudi Arabia’s net-zero pledge, they now see economic and political opportunities in embracing the green energy transition. If the EU is to achieve its climate and geopolitical goals, it will need to substantially increase its engagement with Gulf states on the European Green Deal. Electricity interconnection and green hydrogen are the two most promising fields of clean energy cooperation between the sides. Europeans should not cave to international pressure to lower their ambitions on carbon taxation, including the carbon border adjustment mechanism, as this remains a powerful incentive for hydrocarbons producers to make the transition to cleaner energy.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, European Union, Geopolitics, Engagement, Carbon Tax, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, and Gulf Nations

1226. Useful enemies: How the Turkey-UAE rivalry is remaking the Middle East

Author:: Asli Aydıntaşbaş and Cinzia Bianco
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: Turkey and the United Arab Emirates are engaged in a decade-long feud that is reshuffling the geopolitical order in the Middle East and North Africa. They see each other as existential rivals and are waging a series of proxy wars between the Horn of Africa and the eastern Mediterranean. Their rivalry also plays out in the halls of Washington and Brussels, the global media discourse, the energy industry, and, lately, ports and the high seas. Europe should avoid being sucked into this power struggle to redefine the Middle East and North Africa. Instead of using the UAE to push back against Turkey or vice versa, Europe should develop its own strategy on their rivalry. Europe should establish a NATO deconfliction mechanism, push ahead with the political process in Libya, and design a constructive new framework to insulate European-Turkey relations from the rivalry.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Power Politics, Geopolitics, Strategic Competition, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and United Arab Emirates

1227. The evolution of US strategic priorities

Author:: Carl Bildt
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: The Biden administration’s Interim National Security Strategic Guidance reflects an evolution in US strategic thinking and policy priorities. The document shows how the administration intends to shift away from America Alone and towards America and its Allies. But the optimism and confidence the US expressed in 2015 has been replaced by deep concern over a range of strategic trends. The US will now prioritise strategic competition with China, a new approach to trade, the rise of technology, the defence of democracy, the urgent climate and health crises, and efforts to avoid ‘forever wars’ in the Middle East.
Topic:: Climate Change, Health, Science and Technology, Democracy, and Trade
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

1228. The EU-MENA Partnership: Time for a Reset

Author:: Marc Otte
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: The storm raging across the Southern Neighbourhood, as the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is also known in European terminology, is not about to subside any time soon. Beyond crisis management, current dysfunctions need a long-term, sustained and transformative approach. That was the spirit of the Barcelona Declaration and the original concept of the European neighbourhood policy. Obviously, it didn’t work as expected. The question is why, and how to put the train back on the tracks.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Middle East, and North Africa

1229. National Oil Companies and Energy Transition in the Middle East and North Africa

Author:: Laury Haytayan, Patrick Heller, David Manley, and Ben Potter
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:: As the world looks toward an energy future that is less reliant on fossil fuels, governments in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region must adapt. The petroleum sector is a major employer in the region, the primary source of fiscal revenue, the dominant generator of exports and the source of energy that powers economies. With the pace of energy transition uncertain, a growing number of oil companies are revising downward their long-term assumptions about fossil fuel consumption and prices, and private capital has been progressively moving away from the sector. This transition creates opportunities for cleaner and more reliable energy for citizens in the MENA, a region rich in renewable energy potential. MENA governments and their national oil companies (NOCs) recognize the need for adaptation. Several countries have launched vision statements or reform plans aimed at diversifying NOC portfolios, increasing efficiency and reducing their exposure to market decline. This briefing derives from in-depth research and interviews on the challenges and reform plans of three MENA NOCs (Saudi Aramco, Qatar Petroleum and Algeria’s Sonatrach) and draws out implications for other NOCs in the region. The authors seek to inform the strategies of governments and NOCs on how to manage NOC portfolios and the evolution of state-NOC accountability mechanisms and hope that nongovernmental analysts and civil society organizations will use this briefing as a tool to help understand and scrutinize public reform plans.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Oil, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:: Middle East and North Africa

1230. Qatar Petroleum and the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative: Implications for State Companies in the Middle East and North Africa

Author:: Kaisa Toroskainen
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:: In many resource-rich countries, state-owned enterprises (SOEs) play a major role in collecting taxes and payments, selling oil, and contributing to government revenue from extractive industries. In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, SOEs often control the end-to-end value chain of extraction. This briefing explores how becoming an Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) supporting company can facilitate transparency of SOEs from non-EITI implementing countries in the MENA region. The EITI is a global standard to promote the open and accountable management of extractive resources. Fifty-four countries currently implement the EITI and commit to a set of disclosures along the extractive industry value chain as defined in the EITI Standard. Beyond national EITI implementation, extractive companies can become EITI supporting companies by committing to a set of expectations to advance sustainable development, transparent management of natural resources and by supporting the initiative financially. In this briefing, the author has provided an overview of how becoming an EITI supporting company has supported Qatar Petroleum (QP) in improving reporting and transparency, with a view of providing relevant lessons to the EITI and other SOEs in the MENA region. The briefing concludes with recommendations to the EITI, QP and other SOEs in the MENA region.
Topic:: Oil, Natural Resources, and Industry
Political Geography:: Middle East, North Africa, and Qatar

1231. How to Recalibrate U.S. Policy in the Middle East

Author:: Douglas A. Ollivant
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: Changes in the Middle East have not been sufficiently accounted for in U.S. policy towards the region. Instead, policy has lagged, grounded in anachronism. This report provides five policy recommendations to fix this problem: focus Middle East policy on Chinese influence, empower the State Department, re-evaluate the purpose and location of military basing and forces, prioritize business interests, and acknowledge the reality of interacting with authoritarian states. In doing so, the United States can shift resources away from the region and still protect key interests and partners.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Military Affairs, Authoritarianism, Geopolitics, and Strategic Encirclement
Political Geography:: Middle East and United States of America

1232. Engaging Russia over Syria: Managing Peripheral Conflict and Narrowing Interests

Author:: Aaron Stein
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: The United States is examining how to narrow core objectives in the Middle East to focus on improving military readiness and increasing the number of low-density, high-demand assets available for deployment in Asia and Europe. To free up more forces and to help improve readiness, Washington should explore selective engagement with Moscow about securing a formal ceasefire in Syria’s northwest and reaching agreement on a “no-foreign forces zone” in Syria’s south. This policy would not alter the status quo in Syria, but seek to use diplomatic tools to allow for the reallocation of certain resources now tasked with protecting U.S. ground forces. This engagement with the Russian Federation would elevate a key U.S. interest and use counter-terrorism capabilities based in Jordan to disrupt plots against the homeland. It would also seek to use diplomatic tools to create conditions to remove forces that do not directly support this counter-terrorism effort. This approach would retain U.S. forces in the Middle East, but in a way that allows for certain assets to be repositioned in either the United States, Indo-Pacific, or Europe.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, Middle East, Syria, and United States of America

1233. Cooperation, Competition, and Compartmentalization: Russian-Turkish Relations and Their Implications for the West

Author:: Robert E. Hamilton and Anna Mikulska
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: The relationship between the Russian Federation and Republic of Turkey is one of the most important bilateral relationships in Eurasia today. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) original adversary and one of its earliest members have in recent times veered sharply between cooperation—often against NATO’s interests—and competition so intense that it seemed war between them was possible. Politically, their leaders and their systems of government share a basic compatibility predicated on authoritarianism and resistance to what they claim is Western meddling in internal affairs. Militarily, Moscow and Ankara have at times cooperated closely. For instance, the two have worked to marginalize the U.S. military’s influence in Syria, and Turkey has purchased and deployed Russian S-400 air defense systems, putting its defense relationship with the United States in jeopardy. At other times, such as in the military escalation in Idlib (Syria), the Libyan Civil War, and the Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict, the two have found themselves backing different sides and had to work assiduously to prevent a direct military clash. Economically, the relationship has been historically unbalanced in Russia’s favor, but Turkey’s increasing trade in services and emergence as an important energy storage and transport hub may change this. The two economies share a basic complementarity, with few areas where they compete in the production of goods and services. This dynamic may increase the ability of their economic relationship to act as a “shock absorber” and minimize the impact of disruptions in other facets of their ties. Overall, Moscow and Ankara have worked to emphasize areas of cooperation and “compartmentalize” areas of difference. Policymakers in Western capitals will need to develop an understanding of the drivers of the Russian-Turkish relationship and their effects on Western interests.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

1234. Re-Thinking Assumptions for a 21st Century Middle East

Author:: Douglas A. Ollivant
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: American policy in the Middle East is based on outdated assumptions. There are at least four novel elements in or impacting the Middle East that require an adjustment in strategy: North American Oil Independence: The United States no longer relies on the Middle East for its supply of energy and could choose to act without that significant tie. Rise of China: The People’s Republic of China is now a near-peer to the United States and is taking steps to protect its own interests in the Middle East. Diminishing Conventional Threats to Israel: All conceivable regional enemies are now peace signatories, wrestling with internal instability, or both. Unconventional threats continue to challenge Israel’s security, but a ground invasion is now a remote possibility. Rise of Sub-State Actors: In addition to widely recognized terror and insurgent groups, other actors, such as financial firms, technology firms, and private military firms, interact with power that rivals that of weak states. These new factors—alone and in concert—make legacy strategies at least suboptimal, if not unsuitable. Today’s Middle East exhibits very different characteristics than that of the Middle East of the past century. An acceptable and suitable strategy must incorporate these new data points.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Oil, Non State Actors, Geopolitics, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America

1235. The Institutional Structure of “New Turkey”

Author:: Selim Koru
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: There is a reference book entitled The Republic of Turkey State Institution Guide (Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Devlet Teşkilat Rehberi), published by the Turkey and Middle East Public Governance Institute (Türkiye ve Orta Doğu Amme İdaresi Enstitüsü). It begins with the highest institutions in the legislature, executive, and judiciary, then moves down to the presidency, parliament, prime ministry, and high councils, breaking them up into page-long summaries, with an institution logo and official title, along with their mandates, budgets, current leaders, and international associations. There are impartial or independent institutions, such as the supreme election council and the central bank; local administrative structures, such as city and municipal governates; oversight institutions; government-owned for-profit businesses; and “professional organizations qualified as government institutions.” Akin to the United States Government Manual, this book is meant to be a compact picture of Turkey’s government. If you are working in the municipality of the city of Adana and someone from the “Presidency of the Turkey Water Institute” asks for an appointment, you might reach for this book to learn about that institution. If you ever wonder when the “Privatization High Council” was founded, page 33 will tell you it was on November 27, 1994, under law “4046/3 md.”
Topic:: Government, Domestic Politics, Institutions, and Municipalities
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

1236. The World Food Programme’s Contribution to Improving the Prospects for Peace in Lebanon

Author:: Kristina Tschunkert
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:: This report aims to provide a better understanding of the World Food Programme’s (WFP) contribution to improving the prospects for peace in Lebanon. Specifically, the report investigates where and how WFP’s cash-based transfer (CBT) interventions in the country make potential peace contributions and looks at how these contributions could be further developed. The findings are based on a review of programme documents, in-depth interviews with a range of stakeholders and field visits to project sites in Lebanon in 2021. The findings suggest that WFP’s CBT interventions can—and do—positively contribute to improving the prospects for peace in Lebanon. However, the conflict and peacebuilding environment in Lebanon is extremely complex and rife with uncertainties. With this in mind, the report emphasizes the importance of taking conflict sensitivity concerns into account and provides 13 recommendations on how WFP’s contribution to peace in Lebanon could be enhanced.
Topic:: Security, Food, Peace, and World Food Program (WFP)
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

1237. Mitigating Humanitarian Impact in a Complex Sanctions Environment: The European Union and the Sanctions Regimes against Iran

Author:: Keith A. Preble and Kolja Brockmann
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:: Iran is one of the most heavily sanctioned countries in the world. The combination of sanctions on Iran imposed by the United States, the United Nations and the European Union (EU) in response to, among others, nuclear and ballistic missile activities and human rights violations provides for a sanctions environment that is highly complex and difficult to navigate for exporters, financial institutions and humanitarian actors. Particularly in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic, there is renewed attention to the humanitarian impact of sanctions, especially in the case of Iran which became one of the flashpoints of the pandemic. The focus of this paper is on the array of overlapping sanctions and the mitigation of humanitarian impact, with a particular focus on EU sanctions policy and instruments. The paper outlines key milestones and phases in the imposition of sanctions on Iran by the three main sanctioning actors, the USA, the UN and the EU, thus demonstrating the complexity and the at times coordinated or contradictory nature of the different sanctions. It then explores the humanitarian impact of sanctions on Iran by discussing several illustrative indicators and the impact of sanctions on the provision of international humanitarian aid. The paper reviews existing mechanisms to mitigate the humanitarian impact of sanctions and how they could be improved. In the context of the sanctions of Iran, but also beyond, the paper finds that there is a clear need to further strengthen compliance, enforcement and coordination of EU sanctions, including in the context of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. It concludes by providing specific recommendations for the EU and its member states on improving the effective use of sanctions and reducing their humanitarian impact, including through strengthening key instruments and assessment processes, better coordination with the USA and more engagement with humanitarian actors.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Sanctions, European Union, Arms Trade, Disarmament, and Exports
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

1238. The Foreign Relations of Islamist Movements

Author:: Abdullah Al-Arian
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:: Prof. Abdullah Al-Arian discusses how Islamist movements have historically viewed diplomacy as important to their activist missions.
Topic:: International Relations, Cold War, Diplomacy, Politics, History, and Islamism
Political Geography:: Middle East, North America, Egypt, and United States of America

1239. Iranian Illicit Procurement Scheme to Acquire Controlled Spectrometry Systems Busted

Author:: Spencer Faragasso and Sarah Burkhard
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:: On September 9, 2021, the German Federal Prosecutors Office issued an arrest warrant for a German-Iranian citizen, Alexander J., who is accused of illegally exporting a multitude of laboratory equipment, including four spectrometers, in three separate cases, exports that appear to have also violated the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).1 The total value of all the goods exported to Iran is 1.1 million euros. The defendant, Alexander J., is accused of violating the Foreign Trade Act (AWG) and Regulation (EU) No. 267/2012 of March 23, 2012, as amended in October 2015 in response to the establishment of a special Iranian procurement channel in the JCPOA, which places restrictive measures on certain Iranian entities and equipment for export (and related activities, such as brokering). In the first two cases, Alexander J. is alleged to have exported items to an Iranian national whose Iran-based companies were EU-sanctioned front companies procuring laboratory equipment for Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs at the time. Alexander J. further supplied the sanctioned entity with two spectrometers listed in Annex II of this EU regulation, which lists items that are not on the EU dual-use control list (Regulation (EC) No 428/2009 of 5 May 2009) but that could contribute to sensitive activities, including enrichment-related activities, reprocessing or heavy-water-related activities.2 These items require a license on a case-by-case basis. In addition, Alexander J. violated the regulation by providing goods to an embargoed entity. In the third case, Alexander J. exported two listed spectrometers to a different, unspecified Iranian entity, also without the required license.
Topic:: Security, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Sanctions, and Procurement
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

1240. Soldiers of End-Times: Assessing the Military Effectiveness of the Islamic State

Author:: Ido Levy
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The IS military project led not only to the announcement of a “caliphate,” but to the proliferation of jihadist franchises that devastated countries, displaced millions, and killed tens of thousands. In 2014, the Islamic State shocked the world when it defeated national armies on the battlefield and seized large swaths of territory in Iraq and Syria. The group’s military success can be traced to four key variables: organizational innovation, shaping operations, will to fight, and a knack for retaining the initiative. The IS military project led not only to the declaration of a “caliphate,” but to the proliferation of jihadist franchises that devastated countries, displaced millions, and killed tens of thousands. Yet the group’s weaknesses ultimately led to the collapse of its territorial achievement. Expert Ido Levy begins this pioneering study by surveying jihadist warfare from the 1970s to the present. He then incorporates primary sources and interviews with military officers, experts, and journalists to explain how IS used conventional military capabilities to defeat larger, better-equipped state armies and conquer land in Syria, Iraq, Libya, the Philippines, and Nigeria. Anchored by four case studies—Ramadi, Kobane, Mosul, and Baghuz—the volume illuminates potential strategies to prevent a resurgence by IS or similar groups.
Topic:: Non State Actors, Armed Forces, Violent Extremism, Islamic State, and Jihad
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Syria

1241. A Sultan in Autumn: Erdogan Faces Turkey's Uncontainable Forces

Author:: Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The unprecedented economic growth and personal popularity once enjoyed by the Turkish leader have given way to stagnation, a dwindling support base, and problems abroad. During his first decade in power, Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan maintained his popularity by delivering unprecedented economic growth and dramatically increasing access to healthcare, education, and other essential services. But in recent years, he and his party have faced setbacks, including humiliating mayoral election losses in Istanbul, Ankara, and other major cities in 2019. At home, the once robust Turkish economy has sputtered, while abroad Erdogan must balance a perilous alliance with Russia’s Vladimir Putin against the need to maintain amicable relations with Washington. A potential refugee crisis from Syria looms as another threat. And on the political front, Erdogan can no longer count on majority support from Turkish voters, a trend driven by disillusionment among millennials, his own clumsy anti-elitist messaging, and establishment fatigue, among other factors. In this taut and compelling volume—copublished by The Washington Institute and I.B. Tauris—Soner Cagaptay lays out the mounting challenges to Erdogan’s rule. While suggesting the adaptive president may still survive politically—with undoubted costs for Turkey’s citizens, institutions, and allies—he also offers a more hopeful subtext, intimating that the country’s resilient democracy can outlast any one leader.
Topic:: Politics, Economic Growth, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

1242. Promoting Sovereignty and Accountability in Iraq: Guidelines for the Biden Administration

Author:: Bilal Wahab
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The complexity of Iraq’s challenges might prompt some U.S. officials to balk, but a constructive policy can help advance both Iraqi and American interests in areas ranging from counterterrorism to economic development. In the tenth in a series of TRANSITION 2021 memos, Bilal Wahab offers insights on the complex dynamics in today’s Iraq. When U.S. officials assess the Iraqi scene, they see intractable problems ranging from deep corruption to incessant power grabs by Iran-sponsored militias. The difficulty of dealing with these challenges might prompt some policymakers to balk at devising solutions, but a constructive Iraq policy can help advance both Iraqi and American interests in numerous areas. A more stable Iraq, for its part, could better defend itself against a resurgent Islamic State while curtailing Iranian influence. The author elaborates that Baghdad, reinforced in this way, could help “improve regional security, increase the flow of petroleum—a necessity even amid the urgent global shift toward renewable energy sources—and create economic opportunity for the country’s 40 million citizens as well as neighboring states.” TRANSITION 2021 memos by Washington Institute experts address the broad array of issues facing the Biden-Harris administration in the Middle East. These range from thematic issues, such as the region’s strategic position in the context of Great Power competition and how to most effectively elevate human rights and democracy in Middle East policy, to more discrete topics, from Arab-Israel peace diplomacy to Red Sea security to challenges and opportunities in northwest Africa. Taken as a whole, this series of memos will present a comprehensive approach for advancing U.S. interests in security and peace in this vital but volatile region.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, Sovereignty, Reform, Democracy, and Accountability
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

1243. Accidental Allies: The US–Syrian Democratic Forces Partnership Against the Islamic State

Author:: Michael Knights and Wladimir van Wilgenburg
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: To some, America's partnership with the SDF exemplified an economy-of-force effort that minimized U.S. casualties and wrested control of northeast Syria from the Islamic State. To others, it was a cautionary tale about a U.S. military hoodwinked into working with a terrorist group. The story of America’s military and political partnership with the Syrian Democratic Forces is a controversial one. To some, it is a shining example of an economy-of-force effort that minimized U.S. casualties, wrested control of northeast Syria from the Islamic State, and improved the area’s general political trajectory. To others, it is a cautionary tale of a U.S. military that was hoodwinked by a charismatic and capable partner closely tied to a U.S.-designated terrorist group, the Kurdistan Workers Party, with Washington deliberately averting its eyes from the strategic, political, and moral costs of the partnership. The subject deserves a neutral, data-led investigation that follows the facts wherever they lead. In this volume—copublished by The Washington Institute and I.B. Tauris—military expert Michael Knights and journalist Wladimir van Wilgenburg dive deep into the U.S. relationship with the SDF. The study benefited from intensive debates on sourcing, objectivity, and the need to probe uncomfortable issues. The findings cast light not only on the successes and shortcomings of this particular alliance, but also on how Washington might most profitably pursue “by, with, and through” operations with other forces in the future.
Topic:: Security, Politics, Terrorism, Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), and Military
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Syria, and United States of America

1244. Triangular Diplomacy: Unpacking Russia's Syria Strategy

Author:: Anna Borshchevskaya and Andrew J. Tabler
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Moscow has repeatedly played actors off each other to secure its own interests and keep the Assad regime in power. Sometime before July 10, the UN Security Council will vote on whether to extend the annual mandate for cross-border assistance into Syria, which now passes through a lone outpost at Bab al-Hawa. Securing this extension is essential from a humanitarian standpoint, but keeping the border open matters equally for reasons of stability, given the fragile ceasefire in Idlib. Looming over the process is the strategic mischief of Moscow, which has repeatedly played various actors in Syria off each other to secure its own geostrategic and economic interests and to keep the Assad regime in power. The Kremlin, to the latter end, has reliably vetoed Security Council resolutions that would check the Syrian regime, claiming falsely that such moves would facilitate Western incursions in the country. In this Policy Note, Russia expert Anna Borshchevskaya and recent State Department senior advisor and NSC Syria director Andrew J. Tabler examine Russian diplomatic technique and subterfuge in Syria. The authors argue that by taking a strong stand and better uniting with partners and allies, the Biden administration can cut through Moscow’s rhetoric and ultimately promote a sustainable future for Syria.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Politics, and Competition
Political Geography:: Russia, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

1245. Deals, Drones, and National Will: The New Era in Turkish Power Projection

Author:: Rich Outzen
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Turkey has recently pushed the PKK fight from its own turf and blunted challenges in northern Syria, Azerbaijan, Libya, and the Gulf, all while strengthening its defense export sector. In 2020, military observers took note when the Turkish Armed Forces employed drones to devastating effect in Syria, Libya, and the Caucasus. But this technological achievement must be regarded as just one part of a revamped Turkish approach to regional power projection—a change with economic, diplomatic, strategic, reputational, and battlefield implications. In the past five years, Turkey has notched many associated successes, such as pushing the PKK fight off its own turf and blunting challenges to its interests in northern Syria, Azerbaijan, Libya, and the Gulf. Ankara has also secured significant leverage in other disputes from the Horn of Africa to the Balkans, while strengthening its defense export sector. As military expert Col. Rich Outzen, U.S. Army (Ret.), makes clear in this tightly argued Policy Note, Turkey’s power projection does not always align with U.S. interests, a reality exemplified by anti-SDF military operations and defense industry cooperation with Russia. But ending the U.S.-Turkey military alliance over such differences is neither productive nor tenable. Instead, America can seek to work with an emergent Turkey in the many cases, from Qatar to Afghanistan, where such collaboration advances U.S. strategic interests.
Topic:: Security, Armed Forces, Weapons, Drones, and Regional Power
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

1246. A Strategy to Contain Hezbollah: Ideas and Recommendations

Author:: Hanin Ghaddar
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Since securing a parliamentary majority, the group has consistently prioritized its own interests over those of the Lebanese people through practices such as illicit drug production, sex trafficking, and the buildup of its military arsenal. When Lebanese took to the streets in October 2019 to rail against government corruption, a lack of accountability, and runaway consumer prices, they coalesced around the chant “All of them!”—meaning that every political actor in the country held some blame for the national meltdown. But the slogan glossed over the important fact that one group in particular, Hezbollah, deserved the most blame. Since notching a parliamentary majority in 2018, the Iran-backed military-political organization has consistently prioritized its own interests over those of the Lebanese people through practices such as illicit drug production, sex trafficking, and—of course—the buildup of its military arsenal. In this Policy Note, Hanin Ghaddar, an expert on Lebanon who worked for years as a journalist in the country, explains why Hezbollah poses such a menace and what the international community can do about it. Foremost, she recommends that the United States and its partners intensify pressure on Hezbollah and its Iranian sponsor while simultaneously engaging with a new generation of Lebanese who want to free themselves from the group’s stranglehold.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, Democracy, Hezbollah, and Shia
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Lebanon

1247. A New Start for the U.S. on Mideast Democracy and Human Rights

Author:: David Pollock and Robert Satloff
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In a region where publics are clamoring for healthcare, housing, jobs, and freedom of expression, progress toward electoral democracy need not always be the top priority. Against the backdrop of simmering protests, endemic economic challenges, the continuing struggle to contain the Covid-19 pandemic, and fallout from the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, The Washington Institute has launched a series of policy papers to help guide the Biden administration’s approach on democracy, reform, human rights, and political change across the Middle East and North Africa. The series addresses a range of questions: How do changes in the region over the last decade affect the new administration’s approach to these issues? How should the administration best prepare for the “new normal” of protests in the region? What are the policy tools at America’s disposal, and how might they be improved upon? How can Washington turn much-needed attention to new areas of focus, such as corruption and public-sector reform? What does public opinion research tell us about what the region’s publics want in their countries—and from the United States? And where might enhanced U.S.-EU coordination play a constructive role? The proposed answers will assist policymakers in advancing opportunities for reform, preserving U.S. interests, and navigating Middle East realities in the context of America’s global priorities. In this inaugural essay, David Pollock and Robert Satloff offer broad guidelines for a reimagined American democracy and human rights agenda in the region. At its core is a call for recognizing the many paths to improving human rights, accountable governance, and participatory democracy and their connection to a range of U.S. interests. Progress toward electoral democracy need not always be the top priority in an arena where regional publics are clamoring for basic rights such as healthcare, housing, jobs, and freedom of expression.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Human Rights, Politics, Reform, and Democracy
Political Geography:: Middle East and United States of America

1248. Washington and the Next Arab Spring

Author:: Sarah Feuer and David Schenker
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Should protests grow more destabilizing, the United States will need to balance its values and interests regarding bilateral ties, the popular movement in question, broader regional dynamics, and competition with Russia or China. Against the backdrop of simmering protests, endemic economic challenges, the continuing struggle to contain the Covid-19 pandemic, and fallout from the U.S. Afghanistan withdrawal, The Washington Institute has launched a series of policy papers to help guide the Biden administration’s approach on democracy, reform, human rights, and political change across the Middle East and North Africa. The series addresses a range of questions: How do changes in the region over the last decade affect the new administration’s approach to these issues? How should the administration best prepare for the “new normal” of protests in the region? What are the policy tools at America’s disposal, and how might they be improved? How can Washington turn much-needed attention to new areas of focus, such as corruption and public-sector reform? What does public opinion research tell us about what the region’s publics want in their countries—and from the United States? And where might enhanced U.S.-EU coordination play a constructive role? The proposed answers will assist policymakers in advancing opportunities for reform, preserving U.S. interests, and navigating Middle East realities in the context of America’s global priorities. In the second essay of the series, Sarah Feuer, David Schenker, and their coauthors discuss the resurgence of protest activity across the region, the result of deteriorating economic circumstances and abysmal governance, worsened by the Covid-19 pandemic. Should protests become more destabilizing, the authors explain, the United States—before taking any action—will need to carefully balance its values and interests with respect to bilateral ties, the protest movement in question, broader regional dynamics, and competition with Russia or China.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economy, Arab Spring, Protests, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Middle East, and United States of America

1249. A Vanishing West in the Middle East: The Recent History of U.S.-Europe Cooperation in the Region

Author:: Charles Thépaut
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: To encourage a new multilateralism, Europe will need to gain credibility on hard security matters, the United States will need to reimagine how it deals with allies, and both will need to figure out when to let Middle East countries handle Middle East problems. Since the end of the Cold War, developments in the Middle East have frequently caused tension between the United States and Europe, from the 2003 invasion of Iraq to the Arab uprisings of 2011 and Washington’s 2018 decision to exit the Iran nuclear deal. Today, the Biden administration is reasserting its desire to reduce America’s regional footprint, even as its predecessors struggled to realize a similar goal. At the same time, the United States and Europe share an interest in a stable Middle East where governments keep energy supplies steady and contain threats posed by jihadism and mass refugee flows. In this illuminating book—copublished by The Washington Institute and I.B. Tauris—French diplomat Charles Thépaut examines thirty years of transatlantic cooperation in the region and proposes a more manageable and effective path forward. To encourage a new multilateralism, he explains, Europe will need to gain credibility on hard security matters, the United States will need to reimagine how it deals with allies, and both parties will need to figure out when to step aside and let Middle East countries handle Middle East problems. "After a decade over which the Middle East was profoundly shaken and transformed, over which U.S. foreign policy toward this region went through various revisions, and over which the transatlantic bond risked serious erosion, this book offers serious answers to questions with a bearing on the future: Is there still one ‘West,’ at least in relation to an ‘East’? What remains of the strategic interest the Middle East represents for both America and Europe? Charles Thépaut’s unique position, as a French diplomat working on the Middle East from Washington DC, gives this work irreplaceable value."
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Multilateralism, Strategic Competition, and Military
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, and United States of America

1250. Back to Basics: U.S.-Iraq Security Cooperation in the Post-Combat Era

Author:: Michael Knights and Alex Almeida
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Questions about the viability of the Iraqi security forces—brought into sharp focus by the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan—require a data-led analysis of where the forces are today and what mix of U.S., NATO, and European efforts can help them thrive in the future. The August collapse of the Afghan National Security Forces shook the world’s faith in U.S. security cooperation, prompting hard questions about similar arrangements with Iraq. In a country where the United States has been training forces for two decades, officials need straight answers. How resilient are today’s U.S.-supported Iraqi security forces, and could they operate with gradually reduced American support? What kind of near-term Iraqi force development should the coalition credibly expect to see? And how should U.S.-led security cooperation evolve after the December “transition of mission” to a non-combat role? In this urgently applicable Policy Focus, longtime ISF watchers Michael Knights and Alex Almeida provide a data-led analysis of where Iraq’s security forces are today, how they will look tomorrow, and what mixture of U.S., NATO, and European efforts can ensure the best result commensurate with American interests. The roadmap they outline shows how Baghdad can ultimately achieve enduring victory over the Islamic State and overmatch the domestic opponents of a sovereign, stable, and democratic Iraq.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, Politics, Terrorism, and Shia
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and United States of America

1251. A Blurred Line Between Civil Society and Terrorism: Examining Charges of NGOs Funding the PFLP

Author:: Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The Israeli evidence could reveal a troubling reality wherein groups publicly defend the human rights of some people while supporting acts of terrorism targeting others. On October 19, Israel designated six Palestinian NGOs as terrorist groups affiliated with the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, causing a firestorm among international civil society and human rights organizations. While such action is inherently controversial, any assessment must consider the underlying evidence, which here emerged from a series of investigations pointing to massive fraud. The effort drew on various sources, including classified intelligence, seized materials, and statements made by arrested employees. And it cast light on high-profile cases such as the August 2019 murder of Israeli teen Rina Shnerb, whose killers were employed by one of the designated groups. In this groundbreaking Policy Note, counterterrorism expert Matthew Levitt closely analyzes Israel’s NGO designations. In doing so, he validates U.S., European, and international requests for an explanation, but simultaneously cautions that the evidence—if proven even partially true—could reveal a troubling reality wherein Palestinian NGOs publicly defend the human rights of some people while supporting terrorist acts against others.
Topic:: Civil Society, Terrorism, NGOs, and Palestinians
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

1252. Iranian Perceptions of the U.S. Soft Power Threat

Author:: Amir Toumaj
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Fearing a Western-inspired overthrow, Tehran has intensified enforcement of morality laws, purged professors from universities, and poured billions of dollars into the creation of a separate national intranet. To understand Iranian anxieties about Western cultural invasion, one need look no further than Psychological Operations Quarterly, a journal published until recently by the IRGC’s Social-Cultural Directorate. Focusing on the “soft war” waged by various Western entities, the periodical covers such material as supposedly anti-Iranian films (Alexander, The Wrestler, Argo), the relationship between McDonald’s franchises and the fall of the Soviet Union, and the harm done by English-language textbooks to the Iranian mind. Since 1979, in response to such perceived threats, the Islamic Republic has intensified enforcement of morality laws, purged professors from universities, and poured billions of dollars into creating a national intranet separate from the wider internet, among other repressive moves. In this deeply sourced Policy Note, Iran expert Amir Toumaj discusses the many dimensions of Tehran’s paranoia, all of which lead back to fears of a U.S.-spurred “soft overthrow.” Unfortunately, he argues, American leaders will struggle in vain to change the minds of Iran’s ruling hardliners, but they can facilitate longer-term progress by promoting access to diverse viewpoints for the Iranian people.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Domestic Politics, and Soft Power
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

1253. Preparing for Orderly Change in Jordan When the Time Comes

Author:: Ghaith al-Omari
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The kingdom has navigated tricky successions in the past, and many of the elements that allowed it to do so remain in place today. The Washington Institute has been sponsoring a series of discussions about sudden succession in the Middle East. Each session focuses on scenarios that might unfold if a specific ruler or leader departed the scene tomorrow. Questions include these: Would the sudden change lead to different policies? Would it affect the stability of the respective countries involved, or the region as a whole? What would be the impact on U.S. interests? Would the manner of a leader's departure make a difference? The discussions also probe how the U.S. government might adjust to the new situation or influence outcomes. This essay, the fourteenth and last in the series, looks at prospects for an eventual succession in Jordan. Even as the kingdom today is dealing with serious economic, regional, and political challenges, Hussein bin Abdullah—the twenty-seven-year-old crown prince—faces no challenges and has steadily assumed more public responsibilities. Jordan has navigated tricky successions in the past, and many of the elements that allowed it to do so remain in place today. The next handover could therefore be smooth as well, whatever the complexities of its context.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, Reform, Democracy, and Instability
Political Geography:: Middle East, Jordan, and United States of America

1254. Seasoned Skeptics Why Syrian Kurds Have Resisted Political Islam

Author:: Sirwan Kajjo and Oula A. Alrifai
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The historic role of Sufism, an inclination toward the secular left, and recent repression under extremists have all driven the Kurds away from religiously informed ideology. For much of their history, the Kurdish people have tended to separate their political projects from Islam. This rule applies especially in northern Syria today, where Kurds govern an autonomous region locally referred to as Rojava. Over the past several years, the Democratic Union Party (PYD) has established a governing system that promotes a tolerant form of Islam and coexistence among the many religious groups in the region. The project has not been without its difficulties, including PYD tensions with the competing Kurdish National Council, but it could ultimately serve as a model of tolerance in a region beset by extremism. In this illuminating Policy Note, Sirwan Kajjo and Oula Alrifai explain how Sufi orders, Marxist discourse, jihadist repression, and other factors inform the historic Kurdish resistance to political Islam. The authors contend that only strong U.S. support can uphold the Rojava project and others like it, whatever challenges this might present from the standpoint of domestic politics.
Topic:: Reform, Democracy, Kurds, and Political Islam
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

1255. Power to the People? Scrutinizing the U.S.-Arab Effort to Supply Energy to Lebanon via Syria

Author:: Katherine Bauer, Ben Fishman, Hanin Ghaddar, Simon Henderson, David Schenker, and Andrew J. Tabler
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Residents of the beleaguered country desperately need electricity, but a U.S.-Arab scheme carries complications that could benefit Syria's Assad regime. The Lebanese people have endured painful reductions in electricity over the last two years, and now the lights are on for just hours a day. To address this dire situation—and counter a Hezbollah initiative to import Iranian energy products to Lebanon—the United States and its Arab partners are pursuing a complex two-part scheme, with the first involving excess Jordanian electricity and the second, although not yet public, relying on natural gas originating in Egypt and Israel. But both components would involve energy transiting Syria and potentially benefiting the Assad regime, which is under heavy U.S. and international sanctions for its wartime abuses. In this timely Policy Note—richly illustrated with maps—former U.S. State Department senior advisor and NSC director Andrew J. Tabler and his Washington Institute coauthors disentangle the current U.S.-Arab proposal, including how it might interact with the anti-Assad sanctions regime. They also offer alternative avenues that avoid Syria altogether, such as using offshore LNG platforms and delivering to Lebanon sustainable energy systems, from solar panels to geothermal technology.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Reform, Democracy, and Energy
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Lebanon, Syria, Egypt, Jordan, and United States of America

1256. A Mediatised Conflict: The Mediatisation of Palestinian Split in Pan-Arab Transnational Satellite TV Journalism

Author:: Hussein Alahmad
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Journal of Middle Eastern Studies
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: This paper explores the behind the scenes interplay between regional and Palestinian political actors through pan-Arab transnational satellite TV (PASTV) news media, during the Palestinian internal conflict sparked in 2007 between Fatah and Hamas. Primary focus is on the influential role played by PASTV journalism in shaping Palestinian political decision-making process during this interplay. The interplay between politics and news media forms the core discussion in the theory of ‘mediatisation’, which -informs the theoretical framework in this paper, also refers to such interplay as a struggle between ‘political logic’ and ‘news media logic’. Such a struggle reflects the difference between "neutral" and "participant" journalism, and how that might influence political processes and political culture. The paper examines, from an informant’s perspective, how such transnational political communication took place, also the aims each political player attempted to achieve through the mediated reality shaped in PASTV journalism. The paper demonstrates with evidence how the role played by PASTV journalism was not an accidental occurrence, but an extension of their regional financers’ interests in the conflict. While trying to reinforce the political clout of their Palestinian ally and maximize public sympathy towards his position, the exacerbation and perpetuation of the split become consequences.
Topic:: Media, News Analysis, Conflict, Journalism, and Palestinians
Political Geography:: Middle East and Palestine

1257. Do Consumers Really Care About Corporate Social Responsibility Messages on Social Media? An Investigation on Turkish Telecommunication Companies

Author:: Osman Bahadir Dinçer, Emre Yıldırım, and Yusuf Arslan
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Academic Inquiries
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: Over the last two decades, corporate social responsibility (CSR) has been regarded as obligatory rather than voluntary. The literature review suggests that these activities provide benefits such as increasing sales, developing the companies' positive image, reducing the costs, protecting the environment, and many other issues. However, it is questionable whether it is valid for all sectors and platforms. In this sense, this study investigates whether the consumers care about companies' CSR messages on social media. From this perspective, an investigation on Turkish telecommunication companies was conducted. The researchers made a qualitative content analysis, and in this regard, the documents of the study were analyzed with qualitative analysis software MAXQDA. According to the obtained results, most consumers do not believe in the sincerity of the cases' CSR activities. Moreover, this insincerity leads to negative credibility in the field. Both of these negative dimensions in the consumers' minds prevent the correct message conveying about CSR activities of the cases.
Topic:: Social Media, Business, Corporations, Telecommunications, and Consumer Behavior
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

1258. Reflections of the Reproduced State Identity on Turkish Foreign Policy: Crises With the USA

Author:: Burak Ercoşkun
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Academic Inquiries
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: Factors such as regional-international developments, political, economic, social conditions and security understanding separate the foreign policies of the states from each other and differentiate the expectations of the countries in mutual relations. Turkish-American relations, which have a history of nearly seventy years, have seen a fluctuating course with sometimes cooperation and sometimes crises. Therefore, identifying the root causes of crises that arise from different reasons and damage bilateral relations gains importance in terms of collaboration between the two countries. In this context, this study argues that the reproduction of Turkey’s state identity in the changing international system after the Cold War caused crises in bilateral relations by differentiating foreign policy visions, threat perceptions and international goals with the United States. Based on this, the four crises, in the bilateral relations between Turkey and the United States, starting with the Syrian Civil War and continuing to the present day, will be examined in the dimensions of perception, discourse and politics. Then, possible policies are discussed through risks and opportunities to eliminate the tense atmosphere in Turkey-US relations. In the study, in addition to the literature review, the content and discourse analysis method is used methodologically by making use of the statements of policy makers.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Alliance, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

1259. Ditransitive Constructions in Zaza Language

Author:: Ilyas Arslan
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Academic Inquiries
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: Languages group verbs in different ways. Because of the ergative feature of Zazaki, it plays a big role whether the verbs are transitive or intransitive. Zaza Language introduces some pronouns to distinguish double-transitive verbs from transitive and intransitive verbs. In some linguistic works, the terms transitive and ergative are used synonymously. This article aims to scrutinize ditransitive constructions in the Zaza language, which has some interesting syntactic elements in these structures. They are mostly pronouns in combination with directions. Several pronouns replace indirect object. On the one hand, the goal of this study is to find out the functions of these pronouns. The semantic content of these pronouns decides which pronouns may appear in a specific position. They can appear with or without directions. Only the pronouns such as cı can alone replace a NP, the other ones need a direction for this replacing. On the other hand, this study discusses the morphosyntactic and semantic realizations in ditransitive constructions. While these pronouns do not syntactically follow the same word order, they can semantically be classified into two groups.
Topic:: Linguistics, Language, Zaza Language, and Verbs
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

1260. The Effect of Exchange Rate and Oil Price on BIST Industrial Index: Cointegration and Causality Analysis

Author:: Serpil Sumer
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Bilgi
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: Industry is important for development and sustainability. Countries attach importance to industrialization in order to reduce their foreign dependency and gain competitiveness. It is expected that companies which competitiveness has increased with industrialization will have a positive effect on the national economy and financial markets. The raw materials used in the production process of the enterprises whose main activity is based on industry and the supply of these raw materials are among the issues that should be taken into consideration in industrial production. In this study, the relationship between oil price, exchange rate and Borsa Istanbul Industrial Production Index has been examined. In the study, Johansen co-integration and Granger causality tests were carried out using secondary data for the period January 2000 - September 2020. As a result of the Johansen co-integration test, it is concluded that there is a co-integration relationship between variables. As a result of Granger causality test; It was concluded that there is a bidirectional causality relationship between Borsa Istanbul industrial production index and exchange rate, and a racket effect causality relationship between Borsa Istanbul industrial production index and oil price. In addition, it is concluded that there is no causality relationship between exchange rate and oil price. The research of the relationship between the oil price and exchange rate of the industry, which has an important place in terms of economic growth and competition, is a feature that sets this study apart from other studies in the same field.
Topic:: Development, Oil, Industry, and Exchange Rates
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

1261. The Dynamic Implications of Globalization and Renewable Energy in Turkey

Author:: Mohammed Alnour and Hayriye Atik
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Bilgi
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: This study aims to analyze the dynamic effect of renewable energy use and globalization on the environmental quality in Turkey by utilizing quarterly time series data spanning the period 1990- 2017. After identifying the series order of stationarity by utilizing ADF test, this study makes use of SVAR model. The reason is that SVAR is powerful method in testing contemporaneous and past shock among the variables. In addition, SVAR is the powerful in variance decomposition and the possibility of observing long run forecast. The results disclose that environmental quality reacts negatively to the shocks in hydro energy and economic growth, while the globalization seems positively impact the degradation of the environment. These outcomes are consistent with relevant theories and empirical findings. The only striking result is the positive impact of biofuel and waste energy on the environment. Although Turkey has recently implemented a range of energy policies to promote renewables but some challenges still there, future policymaking should enhance the development in renewables and create more competitive environment for investment in the renewables market.
Topic:: Environment, Globalization, Renewable Energy, and Ecology
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

1262. Ceasefire Between Israel And Hamas: Is There Hope For Sustainable Peace?

Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: The Israeli–Palestinian conflict is one of the world’s longest, most complex, and enduring conflicts, with the Israeli occupation of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip for more than half a century. Numerous efforts have been made to resolve the conflict as part of the Israeli–Palestinian peace process, but most of the attempts have not gone beyond ceasefires. Yet, the world has been polarized in resolving the conflict.
Topic:: Security, Military Strategy, Conflict, Peace, and Hamas
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

1263. Muhammad Bin Salman’s Vision 2030: Strategy of the Kingdom in the Facade of Modernization

Author:: Sadia Rafique and Khalid Manzoor Butt
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Political Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: In the aftermath of Arab Spring, the Middle East (ME) by and large underwent various political upheavals. This change was palpable in some countries particularly where it resulted in a new political dispensation. However, in Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), the state opted to placate the antagonists by some economic concessions and social flexibility. Under the leadership of Muhammad bin Salman, the Crown Prince of KSA, the country is now following an approach of modernization which has two dimensions: first, moving towards social liberalization and secondly, initiating new sources of revenue and reducing dependence on oil revenue. Behind all initiatives, there is a long-term strategy to maintain loyalty of their people and enhance influence of KSA in the ME particularly. This article evaluates goals of Muhammad Bin Salman’s Vision or Saudi Vision 2030 and strategies which require substantial changes in social setup and developments to the Kingdom’s fiscal and budgetary measures and policies. This study reflects the political, religious, family and institutional challenges that can antagonize the Vision and its probability of accomplishment. While theorizing the study, it will be evaluated that a re-drawing of the ‘social contract’ in the Kingdom seems necessary. This means not only more effective strategic communication and consultation with the stakeholders, but also a greater focus on inclusive growth and social safety.
Topic:: Reform, Arab Spring, Institutions, Fiscal Policy, Modernization, Liberalization, and Muhammad bin Salman (MBS)
Political Geography:: Middle East, Saudi Arabia, and Gulf Nations

1264. Case Studies on the Role of Gender and Identity in Shaping Positive Alternatives to Extremisms

Author:: Rosalie Fransen, Melinda Holmes, Helena Gronberg, Stacey Schamber, and Shannon Foley Martinez
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Case Study
Institution:: International Civil Society Action Network (ICAN)
Abstract:: The International Civil Society Action Network (ICAN), with the support of Global Affairs Canada, has developed a set of “Case Studies on the Role of Gender and Identity in Shaping Positive Alternatives to Extremisms,” in Cameroon, Indonesia, Jordan, Libya, Pakistan, Somalia, Sweden, and the United States. The case studies demonstrate how conducting a Gender-Based Analysis Plus (GBA+) improves understanding of the drivers, narratives and roles that engender extremisms and violent extremist activity. By profiling examples of peacebuilding, deradicalization, reintegration and counternarrative work in these contexts, the case studies emphasize how attention to gender and intersectional identities can improve the effectiveness of interventions to transform extremisms – not only by preventing or countering it, but by providing positive alternatives that enable people to realize a peaceful, pluralistic future. The case studies cover a number of themes relevant to contemporary preventing/countering violent extremism (P/CVE) and counterterrorism (CT) work, including countering white supremacist extremism, the role of masculinities in recruitment and disengagement, addressing trauma and deploying mental health and psychosocial support (MHPSS) approaches in reintegration and rehabilitation, and work with religious leaders to promote peaceful, pluralistic and gender-just interpretations of religious texts and traditions. The case studies are intended for use by practitioners and policymakers to guide them in conducting a gender analysis and in integrating responsiveness to gender and identity factors in policies and interventions.
Topic:: Education, Religion, Violent Extremism, Counter-terrorism, Women, Inequality, Trauma, Violence, Mental Health, White Supremacy, Identity, Political Participation, and Gender
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Africa, South Asia, Indonesia, Middle East, Libya, North Africa, Sweden, Jordan, Somalia, Southeast Asia, Cameroon, and United States of America

1265. The Legacy of the Iranian Hostage Crisis

Author:: Alex Vatanka and Michael Metrinko
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Alex Vatanka and Michael Metrinko discuss the Iranian hostage crisis, how it’s shaped US-Iran relations, and what that history tells us about the present and potential future of the Islamic Republic. Metrinko also recounts his experience as a political officer at the embassy in Iran in 1979 and being one of the 52 hostages.
Topic:: Diplomacy, History, Bilateral Relations, and Iranian Hostage Crisis
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

1266. Year in review: The Middle East in 2021

Author:: Paul Salem, Randa Slim, Bilal Y. Saab, and Karen E. Young
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: What were the most significant developments in the Middle East and regional policy in 2021? MEI’s Paul Salem, Randa Slim, Bilal Saab, and Karen Young join the program to discuss the key events and what trends to watch in 2022.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East

1267. Taliban News: Fair and Balanced?

Author:: Janet Steele
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: At the Taliban’s first press conference on 17 August 2021, spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid startled the world by calling for “balanced and fair reporting,” claiming that the Taliban would support free and independent media as long as journalists worked according to Islamic rules and Sharia. In this essay, I argue that Western policymakers should take the Taliban spokesperson’s words very seriously, as his frame of reference is a set of powerful Islamic concepts that are likely to resonate with Muslim listeners throughout the world. It is important both to understand his words within the context of Islam, and to search for common ground in holding the Taliban accountable for what it has pledged.
Topic:: Governance, Taliban, News Analysis, and Accountability
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Middle East

1268. Likely Escalation: Potential war over Syria’s Daraa Province after Russian roadmap

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Between August 2and August 18, clashes erupted between the Syrian regime army and the armed opposition groups in Daraa province in southern Syria, after the Syrian regime threatened military action against the groups if they do not commit to a roadmap proposed by Russia, which eventually aims to help the Syrian army retake control on the southern parts of the country.
Topic:: Geopolitics, Refugees, Syrian War, Armed Conflict, and Escalation
Political Geography:: Russia, Middle East, Syria, and Daraa

1269. A Shiite Division: The repercussions of the possible postponement of the Iraqi parliamentary elections

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: On August 19, the Iraqi President called for a national dialogue regarding the upcoming elections, expressing his concerns about the challenges holding the elections on time. Thus, Iraq once again faces uncertainty regarding the fate of the upcoming parliamentary elections, scheduled for October 10, 2021. A number of the Iraqi political forces announced their desire to postpone the elections, in support of the position of the leader of the Sadrist movement, while other forces oppose this approach and stand by holding the elections on their scheduled date.
Topic:: Elections, Muqtada al-Sadr, Parliament, and Shiism
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

1270. Afghanistan’s Ripples: Can the US withdraw from Iraq?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The Taliban’s control of Kabul and the extension of its sovereignty over the majority of Afghanistan, following the withdrawal of US forces, have raised debates regarding the fate of the US forces in Iraq. Is Washington going to withdraw from Iraq as well, particularly in light of previous US threats to do so, or will the Afghan experience not be repeated in Iraq?
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Armed Forces, and Iraq War
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Iraq, South Asia, Middle East, and United States of America

1271. Potential Cooperation: Iranian Possible Cooperation with Taliban to Curb Threats

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The situation in Afghanistan, after the Taliban took over the country, is the second key issue that the new Iranian president, Ebrahim Raisi’s, foreign policy agenda, after reviving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Taliban, and JCPOA
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Iran, South Asia, and Middle East

1272. Common Perceptions: Discovering the consensus between King Abdullah and Putin regarding the future of Southern Syria

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: A Jordanian-Russian summit was held on August 23 in Moscow, during which several files pertaining to Lebanon and Palestine were discussed. However, the crisis in Southern Syria was on top of the list of discussions. This summit was preceded by several Jordanian decisions, which are believed to mark the beginning of some change in Jordanian policy toward Syria and toward the region in general.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Syrian War, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:: Russia, Middle East, Syria, and Jordan

1273. The 7th Round of Talks: Iran’s foot-dragging over the return to nuclear talks

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: French President Emanuel Macron, on September 6, held his sec-ond official phone call with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi since his ascent to presidency, to discuss the future of the Vienna talks aiming to revive the 2015 nuclear deal. Six rounds of talks have been held so far In Vienna.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and JCPOA
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

1274. Mutual Concessions: Did al-Kadhimi’s visit to Tehran achieve its objectives?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: On September 12, 2021, Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi, led a high-profile government delegation on an official one-day visit to Tehran that came upon invitation from Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi. Besides Raisi, al-Kadhimi also met Ali Shamkhani, the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, and other senior officials.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Domestic Politics, and Energy
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, and Middle East

1275. Maritime Dispute: Lebanon’s Options for Responding to Israel’s Deal with Halliburton

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: US-based oilfield services group Halliburton said on September 14 that it was awarded a contract to drill as many as five wells off the coast of Israel. Halliburton, which will conduct the work for London-based Energean, will deliver all services including project management, production enhancement, and subsea services. Halliburton previously executed a four-well campaign at Energean’s Karish and Karish North gas fields offshore Israel.
Topic:: Oil, Economy, Business, and Maritime
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

1276. The Reappearance of Consensus: Implications of Israel-Russia Agreements over Syria

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Russian President Vladimir Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett held their first face-to-face talks on October 22 in Sochi, Russia. The summit talks, called by Putin, were slated for only two hours but lasted for about five hours, reflecting the two sides’ interest in enhancing coordination about several common issues, and warming up the Israeli-Russian relations which cooled down since Bennett rose to power.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Treaties and Agreements, Syrian War, and Consensus
Political Geography:: Russia, Middle East, Israel, and Syria

1277. Incessant Tension: Uncovering the Turkish attempt to bust an Israeli spy ring

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: On October 21, Daily Sabah announced that an Israeli spy ring, consisting of 15 agents, was arrested in Turkey early in October. The Turkish newspaper affiliated with the Turkish government and JDP said that the spy ring targeted Israel's opponents in Turkey. A day later, the newspaper affirmed that one of the arrested agents collected information about Palestinians residing in Turkey, and about Turkish military industries. However, Ankara did not officially announce the news, while Israel denied the accusation. A few weeks earlier, the pro-Hamas Shehab News agency announced that seven Palestinian PNA and Mossad agents were arrested in Turkey allegedly for spying on certain Palestinian residents in Turkey.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Espionage
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Israel

1278. Rebuffing Accusations: Implications of Esmail Qaani to Iraq Following Attempted Assassination of al-Kadhimi

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Iraqi media outlets such as Dijlah, Al-Rafidain TV and Al-Sharqiya, on November 7, reported that Esmail Qaani, the commander of the Quds Force, a branch of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), had arrived in the Iraqi capital on November 7 on an unannounced visit. Qaani met with the chiefs of Shi’ite militant groups, as well as Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi and the Iraqi President Barham Salih. Qaani expressed rejection of the assassination attempt on al-Kadhimi. Qaani’s visit was part of Iran’s efforts to bring its Iraqi armed groups under control in exchange for giving their parties a share in the next government.
Topic:: Government, Non State Actors, Media, and Assassination
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

1279. Colonial Legacies in Syrian Nationality Law and the Risk of Statelessness

Author:: Malak Benslama-Dabdoub
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:: Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:: The millions of Syrians born or living in exile as a result of the ongoing conflict has dramatically increased the number of people from Syria with no nationality. In this regard, Syrian nationality law has been criticised for containing discriminatory provisions and failing to address the risk of statelessness. Nonetheless, the responsibility of colonialism in creating such discrimination has been largely overlooked. One decade after the outbreak of the Syrian civil war, this article looks back at the colonial roots of Syrian legislation governing nationality. Through a critical legal and historical analysis, it reveals the hidden colonial legacies of Syrian citizenship, by highlighting the responsibility of European colonial powers in introducing gender-based discrimination in domestic legislation, rendering Kurds and Palestinians stateless, and creating the practice of arbitrary denationalisation. This paper ends with a call for more research on colonial legacies within citizenship and statelessness studies.
Topic:: Law, Colonialism, Stateless Population, and Nationality
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

1280. Statelessness and COVID-19

Author:: Jamie Liew
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:: Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:: Throughout the past year and a half, we have witnessed how no person or community on this planet has been untouched by COVID-19. There are countless reports about the differential experiences that various communities face in access to healthcare but also how some public health measures meant to stem its spread may actually be harming particular persons. The pandemic has put into sharp focus the inequities and the gaping fractures in societies all over the world. Moreover, the pandemic has made many realise that we cannot ignore the marginalised in our community given the interconnectedness of our existence. This issue’s critique and commentary part presents a snapshot of how some stateless persons are coping during the pandemic but also features the work of grassroots organisations and emerging researchers. We take a look at five stateless communities: the Rohingya in Bangladesh;1 LGBTQ+ undocumented in Brazil;2those seeking reproductive healthcare in Canada;3 the Bidoon in Kuwait;4 and the stateless in Sabah, Malaysia
Topic:: Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Stateless Population
Political Geography:: Bangladesh, Malaysia, Middle East, Canada, Asia, Kuwait, Brazil, South America, and North America

1281. COVID-19 and the Bidoon in Kuwait

Author:: Areej Alshammiry
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:: Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:: This piece outlines some of the conditions that the Bidoon(Kuwait’s stateless population) have experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic.1 As a former stateless Bidoon and a researcher settled in Canada, I have utilised my community connections in Kuwait to inform my writing. The information in this article is gathered from speaking with at least eight Bidoon activists and stateless persons. I chose to keep their names anonymous for their safety. This work would not be possible without their contributions. The exact number of the Bidoon is unavailable due to the contested nature of the statistics provided by the government. However, differing sources agree that this population is currently over 100,000 in Kuwait, excluding those who have migrated or have lived in exile since the 1990s.2 The Bidoon are indigenous to the Arabian Peninsula but were made stateless after the formation of the Kuwaiti state in the 1960s. The in situ stateless are prohibited from accessing many social services (including public education, proper healthcare, employment, documentation, subsidies and pension plans) and other basic human needs offered to citizens.3 The consequences of such deprivations are more severe for stateless people during a global crisis like the COVID-19 pandemic. p
Topic:: Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Stateless Population
Political Geography:: Middle East, Kuwait, and Gulf Nations

1282. Peace and illicit drugs at the margins: A borderland view of Afghanistan’s SDG 16

Author:: Orzala Nemat
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU)
Abstract:: Afghanistan is in the process of developing its national goals and targets in relation to the global sustainable development goals (SDGs). There are 17 SDGs which have been broken down into a total of 169 targets. But how are these globally agreed goals being addressed in Afghanistan? In what ways do they specifically address the particular political challenges that Afghanistan faces, and the geographical divisions of the country? Drawing from long-term research on the drug economy and the more recent research of the Drugs & (dis)order project in three borderland provinces in Afghanistan – Badakhshan, Nangarhar and Nimroz – this briefing paper argues that the current A-SDG 16 fails both to identify the challenges that these borderlands pose to the achievement of SDG 16, and to recognise the opportunities that they might offer for peace building.
Topic:: Development, Borders, Drugs, Illegal Trade, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Middle East

1283. The Middle East: From a decade of conflict to an age of reconciliation

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: Swift reconciliations initiated by regimes with the purpose of cutting their losses and shoring up their own sources of power are not enough to establish enduring stability and a genuinely cooperative regional order.
Topic:: Political stability, Conflict, Reconciliation, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East

1284. The crisis of the Turkish lira: Toward economic collapse or a new economic model?

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: As with any economic or fiscal policy, Erdogan is taking a risk, betting that his vision can turn the Turkish economy around. The only problem is that with presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for June 2023, he has just 18 months to prove the efficacy of his policies.
Topic:: Economy, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Fiscal Policy, and Currency
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

1285. Women and Minors in Tertiary Prevention of Islamist Extremism

Author:: Sofia Koller
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Over the past years, the role of gender issues in addressing and preventing Islamist extremism has received increased attention. Since the fall of the ‘caliphate’ of the so-called Islamic State in Syria and Iraq (ISIS), most of the returnees to Western European countries have been women who had joined ISIS and other Jihadist organizations. Many travelled with children who had been brought along on the initial journey or who were born abroad. Working with women and minors, especially returnees, has become one of the main challenges for actors in tertiary prevention of Islamist extremism.
Topic:: Security, Violent Extremism, Women, Islamic State, and Islamism
Political Geography:: Middle East

1286. Israel and the Persian Gulf: A Source of Security or Conflict?

Author:: Steven Simon
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: • In the current geopolitical context, the Abraham Accords, which normalized Israel’s relations with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain during the final months of the Trump administration, could prove destabilizing by lowering the bar for Israeli military action against Iran.1 • The destabilizing potential of the Abraham Accords will increase if talks to revive the Iran nuclear agreement collapse. This, in turn, suggests that revival of the accord, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, remains important for U.S. security and regional stability. • By securing the JCPOA and supporting diplomacy between Iran and Saudi Arabia, the U.S. maximizes the viability and utility of the Abraham Accords as well as their compatibility with a new and more inclusive regional security architecture. But supporting only the Abraham Accords without reentering the JCPOA and encouraging multilateral dialogue among the Arab Gulf states and Iran could transform the accords from a potential strategic asset to a liability.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Geopolitics, Conflict, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Persian Gulf

1287. Will a Military Withdrawal from the Middle East Leave a Vacuum?

Author:: Mark Perry
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: • The Biden administration must not allow disputes among combatant commanders about resource allocation to dictate decisions concerning U.S. force posture. The White House has acknowledged that the Middle East is no longer as central a concern to our national security as it once was and that the U.S. must reshape its military presence in the region. • Fears that Russia or China might take advantage of a reduction in the U.S. military presence in the Middle East are exaggerated. China and Russia have both benefited from America’s willingness to shoulder the security burden of the Middle East. • Washington should complement its reduced military presence in the Middle East with greater diplomatic involvement. The objectives should be retaining influence and advancing U.S. interests in a peaceful and stable environment.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, National Security, and Military
Political Geography:: Middle East

1288. China and the Persian Gulf in the Aftermath of a U.S. Withdrawal

Author:: Steven Simon
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: • Given longstanding U.S. economic ties to the Arab Gulf states, the withdrawal of the U.S. military would not mean the United States is departing from the region. Even if it did signify that, however, China would be unlikely to fill the vacuum. A U.S. decision to maintain a military presence in the region should therefore not be based on fear of a strategic vacuum that China will fill to America’s disadvantage. • The United States should leverage China’s interest in stable cross–Gulf relations by working in tandem with Beijing to encourage dialogue and confidence-building measures. • The United States should monitor Chinese military deployments to the Indian Ocean and work with Gulf partners to set limits on China’s military use of air and naval bases. This would serve as a confidence-building measure and ensure that the Gulf does not become an arena for competition amid heightened Sino–American tensions.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, Military Affairs, and Strategic Engagement
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, Persian Gulf, and United States of America

1289. Iraqi Police: A Hard Place Between State and Society

Author:: Afzal Ashraf
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:: Experts suggest that a police force should closely reflect its state’s constitution and its societal fabric.1 It follows, therefore, that the design of a new policing system or the reform of an old one will be affected by the ideas and the realities of power within the state and by the nature of its society. Nowhere are these principles more visible than in the reconstruction of a post–conflict country. The underlying assumption in such situations is that police reform is a fundamental element of conflict management because a police force, supported by society, can mitigate insecurity and play a significant part in the economic and political development of a country.2 This assumption has one fundamental flaw. For a police force to help deliver security and development in a post–conflict situation, there should exist at least a modicum of security and economic and political development. This “chicken and egg” situation is most starkly evident in the attempts to reform the police service following the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003. The security sector reform programs in Iraq, of which police reform is a component, not only challenge some assumptions upon which international development is based, but also provide potential insights into the relationship between the police, power, economic security, and society in general. These relationships could also apply to developed countries as their political and eco- nomic systems are challenged or changed by global events.
Topic:: Development, State, Police, Society, and Post-Conflict
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

1290. To Be Served and Protected: Israeli Arab Citizens and the Police

Author:: Guy Ben-Porat
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:: In January 2021, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu paid a visit to Umm al-Fahm, an Arab city in the north of Israel. The visit, officially celebrating the country’s millionth COVID-19 vaccine recipient, also had a political purpose: winning the forthcoming elections in March 2021. For the first time, Netanyahu and the Likud party hoped to gain support from Israel’s Arab citizens. Among Netanyahu’s promises of economic betterment was a commitment to fight ris- ing crime and violence in Arab cities. He pledged “a comprehensive plan” with the primary goal of constructing more police stations “because a dense network of police stations creates more security.” Going further, he added that he “also want[ed] more intelligence, more officers, and more means [of enforcement].” Netanyahu declared himself “first and foremost committed to the rule of law and safety for citizens.”1
Topic:: Human Rights, Inequality, Citizenship, Rule of Law, and Police
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

1291. When Local Politics Go Global: How Erdoğan’s Dominance At Home Allowed Him To Reshape Turkey’s Neighborhood

Author:: Ayla Jean Yackley
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:: At a lavish ceremony last year commemorating a millennium-old Turk- ish victory over Byzantine forces, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan delivered a warning to his adversaries: heed the lesson of the medieval battle or risk devas- tation for challenging Turkey. Turkey had recently dispatched warships to hunt for hydrocarbons in internationally recognized Greek waters.1 The maneuver thrust the two NATO members into a dangerous confrontation that unnerved both the European Union and the United States.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Regional Power
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

1292. Pathways for Reconciliation in Yemen

Author:: European Institute of Peace
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Institute of Peace (EIP)
Abstract:: The Pathways for Reconciliation in Yemen project* was developed under the European Institute of Peace’s Conflict Justice and Reconciliation programme. It is the largest effort in recent history and ongoing conflict to engage members of society to consider their needs, perspectives and rights in the search for lasting peace. This report covers highlights from consultations with nearly 16,000 people in nine governorates in Yemen between October 2020 and October 2021. The process reflects a commitment that peace must be shaped by genuine participatory engagement with society beyond those actively engaging in hostilities or involved with the conflict parties. The likelihood of obtaining a legitimate and sustainable settlement significantly depends on how inclusive the process is and the extent to which it engages beyond elite voices of the powerful. Yemen benefitted from the 2013–2014 National Dialogue Conference (NDC). While some of the ideas and conclusions it reached remain relevant, the conditions in the country are now significantly worse. Although the NDC was innovative and inspirational, its model can be improved upon to promote a more inclusive process that helps facilitate more legitimate outcomes. The process of engagement is an essential aspect of sustainable peacebuilding. It should not be seen as a ‘soft’ option or an ornament to ‘serious’ talks with conflict parties. Sustainable peace ultimately requires a critical mass of society to buy into any settlement. To do so, they must believe it represents an improvement to the status quo, and that it is in their interest to stick with it and to withhold support from potential spoilers. The more seriously the settlement’s creation takes into account the views of the wider society, the greater the chances of conferring legitimacy and obtaining buy-in. The Pathways to Reconciliation initiative identifies the priorities and concerns of ordinary citizens. While some of the findings may not surprise, this does not limit their usefulness. Citizens’ genuine engagement in the initial steps of this process is of the utmost importance. A striking proportion of those consulted (78 per cent) did not support any political party; they consider themselves unrepresented, and with no appropriate avenues in which to express their needs and aims.
Topic:: Peace, Justice, and Reconciliation
Political Geography:: Middle East and Yemen

1293. Regional Solutions to Regional Challenges in the Middle East?

Author:: Brandon Friedman
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: Members of two rival camps in the Sunni Middle East — Qatar and Turkey on one side, and Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, on the other — have continued a sustained diplomatic effort at reconciliation that began early this year. In a sign of the delicate progress between Qatar and its Gulf neighbors, on September 17, the Saudi Gazette tweeted a picture of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman standing beside Qatari Emir Tamim Al Thani and Emirati Sheikh Tahnoun bin Zayed, all dressed informally, in the Egyptian resort city of Sharm al-Sheikh. More recently, on November 24, Mohammed bin Zayed, the Crown Prince of the UAE, met in Ankara with Turkey’s President, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, in a dramatic reversal of what had appeared to be a hostile rivalry.[1] The visit resulted in the Emiratis establishing a $10 billion fund for investment in Turkey.[2]
Topic:: Diplomacy, Sectarianism, Regional Integration, Sunni, and Shiism
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, and United Arab Emirates

1294. Celebrating Ashura in Syria

Author:: Jesse Weinberg
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: In this issue of BeeHive, Jesse Weinberg explores the social impact of Iranian presence in Syria.
Topic:: Military Intervention, Syrian War, Society, and Ashura
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Syria

1295. For Israel’s Acceptance to the AU as Observer Reveals Continental Divides

Author:: Rina Bassist
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: In our latest issue of Ifriqiya, Rina Bassist analyzes the circumstances surrounding Israel's recent accreditation as an African Union observer state, and discusses trends affecting Israeli-African relations.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and African Union
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

1296. No Boundaries – The Syrian-Lebanese Drug Economy

Author:: Moran Levanoni
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: In this issue of Iqtisadi, Dr. Moran Levanoni analyzes how the Syrian-Lebanese border area has become one of the most important centers for the production of illegal drugs in the Middle East. Hezbollah's key role in the Middle East drug trade is contextualized within its global empire that includes parts of South America, Africa, and Eurasia.
Topic:: Economy, Hezbollah, Drugs, and Illicit Financial Flows
Political Geography:: Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria

1297. Turkey's Nuclear Future

Author:: Assa Ophir
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: In our latest issue of Turkeyscope Dr. Assa Ophir discusses the implications of Turkish efforts to potentially become a state with an independent nuclear program.
Topic:: NATO, Nuclear Weapons, Nuclear Power, and Nonproliferation
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

1298. Strategic Reengagement in the Middle East

Author:: Brian Katulis and Peter Juul
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: The Biden administration can rebalance America’s policy in the Middle East through diplomacy, economic statecraft, and security cooperation—all while shifting away from direct military action.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Economics, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Middle East, North America, and United States of America

1299. Seeking a New Balance for U.S. Policy in the Middle East

Author:: Brian Katulis and Peter Juul
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: The Biden administration signaled an effort to shift overall U.S. policy by prioritizing diplomacy and making some modest shifts on the military front, but key human security challenges loom on the horizon.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: Middle East, North America, and United States of America

1300. Northern Syria Security Dynamics and the Refugee Crisis

Author:: Max Hoffman and Alan Makovsky
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: Ensuring stability in northern Syria will require international engagement that balances humanitarian concerns with the moral hazard created by Turkey’s occupation.
Topic:: Security, Refugees, Refugee Crisis, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS