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1612. Imperfect Chronicle
- Author:
- Amy K. Rosenthal
- Publication Date:
- 09-2011
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Journal of International Security Affairs
- Institution:
- Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs
- Abstract:
- A flawed history of terror's Israeli and Jewish victims, courtesy of Giulio Meotti
- Political Geography:
- Israel
1613. Policy Concerns of Low Fertility for Military Planning in South Korea
- Author:
- Elizabeth Hervey Stephen
- Publication Date:
- 11-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- The South Korean military currently is the sixth-largest in the world. But years of low birth rates have resulted in declining numbers of young men available for military service, and the country now faces the pressing question of how to ensure national security in the face of inevitable troop reductions. Some options for offsetting this shrinking recruit pool (such as increasing fertility, increasing immigration, and increasing the number of women in the military) might seem obvious, but the complex economic, social, and cultural reality of South Korea make them unlikely to be embraced. The best focus for immediate action is to stabilize or increase service terms and to encourage development and implementation of high-tech security systems. While the recruit pool appears nearly adequate at present, South Korea must act quickly to develop the leaner, more diverse, and more technologically based military necessary for the country to maintain a viable military force.
- Topic:
- Security
- Political Geography:
- Israel, Asia, and South Korea
1614. The Trans-Pacific Partnership and Asia-Pacific Integration: A Quantitative Assessment
- Author:
- Peter A. Petri, Michael G. Plummer, and Fan Zhai
- Publication Date:
- 10-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Two emerging tracks of trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific—one based on the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement and an Asian track—could consolidate the “noodle bowl” of current smaller agreements and provide pathways to a Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP). We examine the benefits and strategic incentives generated by these tracks over 2010-2025. The effects on the world economy would be small initially but by 2025 the annual welfare gains would rise to $104 billion on the TPP track, $303 billion on both tracks, and $862 billion with an FTAAP. The tracks will be competitive but their strategic implications are constructive: each would generate incentives for enlargement. Over time, strong economic incentives would emerge for the United States and China to consolidate the tracks into a region-wide agreement. Each track would bring a different template to such consolidation and can be viewed as defining a “disagreement point” in the Asia-Pacific bargaining game. The study is based on an analysis of 48 actual and proposed Asia-Pacific trade agreements and models impacts on variables including sectoral trade, output, employment and job shifts in 24 world regions.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Israel, Asia, Australia/Pacific, and Asia-Pacific
1615. An Evaluation of Overseas Oil Investment Projects Under Uncertainty Using a Real Options Based Simulation Model
- Author:
- ZhongXiang Zhang, Lei Zhu, and Ying Fan
- Publication Date:
- 11-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- This paper applies real options theory to establish an overseas oil investment evaluation model that is based on Monte Carlo simulation and is solved by the Least Squares Monte-Carlo method. To better reflect the reality of overseas oil investment, the model has incorporated not only the uncertainties of oil price and investment cost but also the uncertainties of exchange rate and investment environment. These unique features have enabled the model to be best equipped to evaluate the value of oil overseas investment projects of three oil field sizes (large, medium, small) and under different resource tax systems (royalty tax and production sharing contracts). In the empirical setting, China was selected as an investor country and Indonesia as an investee country as a case study. The results show that the investment risks and project values of small sized oil fields are more sensitive to changes in the uncertainty factors than the large and medium sized oil fields. Furthermore, among the uncertainty factors considered in the model, the investment risk of overseas oil investment may be underestimated if no consideration is given of the impacts of exchange rate and investment environment. Finally, as there is an important tradeoff between oil resource investee country and overseas oil investor, in medium and small sized oil investment negotiation the oil company should try to increase the cost oil limit in production sharing contract and avoid the term of a windfall profits tax to reduce the investment risk of overseas oil fields.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Oil
- Political Geography:
- China, Indonesia, and Israel
1616. Korea's Growth Performance: Past and Future
- Author:
- Marcus Noland
- Publication Date:
- 11-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- South Korea is arguably the premier development success story of the last half century. For 47 years starting in 1963, the economy averaged 7 percent real growth annually, and experienced only two years of economic contraction: 1980 after the second oil shock and the assassination of President Park Chung-hee, and 1998 at the nadir of the Asian financial crisis. At the start of that period South Korea had a per capita income lower than that of Mozambique or Bolivia; today it is richer than Spain or New Zealand, and was the first Asian and first non-G7 country to host a summit of the G20, the unofficial steering committee of the world economy.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Development, Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Israel, Asia, South Korea, Spain, Mozambique, New Zealand, and Bolivia
1617. Gender in Transition: The Case of North Korea
- Author:
- Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland
- Publication Date:
- 11-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- This paper uses a survey of 300 North Korean refugees to examine the experience of women in North Korea's fitful economic transition. Like other socialist states, North Korea has maintained a de jure commitment to women's rights. However, we find that women have been disproportionately shed from state-affiliated employment and thrust into a market environment characterized by weak institutions and corruption. As a result, the state and its affiliated institutions are increasingly populated by males, and the market, particularly in its retail aspects, is dominated by women. Among the most recent cohort of refugees to leave North Korea, more than one-third of male respondents indicate that criminality and corruption is the best way to make money, and 95 percent of female traders report paying bribes to avoid the penal system. In short, the increasingly male-dominated state preys on the increasingly female-dominated market. These results paint a picture of a vulnerable group that has been disadvantaged in North Korea's transition. Energies are directed toward survival, mass civil disobedience is reactive, and as a group, this population appears to lack the tools or social capital to act collectively to improve their status.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Gender Issues, Markets, and Labor Issues
- Political Geography:
- Israel and North Korea
1618. Rent(s) Asunder: Sectoral Rent Extraction Possibilities and Bribery by Multinational Corporations
- Author:
- Nathan Jensen, Edmund Malesky, and Dimitar Gueorgiev
- Publication Date:
- 11-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- We argue that openness to foreign investment can have differential effects on corruption, even within the same country and under the exact same domestic institutions over time. Our theoretical approach departs from standard political economy by attributing corruption motives to firms as well as officials. Rather than interpreting bribes solely as a coercive “tax” imposed on business activities, we allow for the possibility that firms may be complicit in using bribes to enter protected sectors. Thus, we expect variation in bribe propensity across sectors according to expected profitability which we proxy with investment restrictions. Specifically, we argue that foreign investment will not be associated with corruption in sectors with fewer restrictions and more competition, but will increase dramatically as firms seek to enter restricted and uncompetitive sectors that offer higher rents. We test this effect using a list experiment, a technique drawn from applied psychology, embedded in a nationally representative survey of 10,000 foreign and domestic businesses in Vietnam. Our findings show that the impact of domestic reforms and economic openness on corruption is conditional on polices that restrict competition by limiting entry into the sector.
- Topic:
- Development, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- Israel and Vietnam
1619. The Non-Western Challenger? The Rise of a Sino-Centric China
- Author:
- Andreas Bøje Forsby
- Publication Date:
- 12-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- What are the implications of China's rapid rise for international order? This report seeks to answer the question from an identity perspective. The key argument is that China is currently undergoing an identity shift towards Sino-centrism, that is, a self-centering tendency to turn narrative attention towards the internally generated, specifically Chinese hallmarks associated with China's civilizational past and cultural heritage.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, and Culture
- Political Geography:
- China and Israel
1620. A Balance of Fear: Asymmetric Threats and Tit-for-Tat Strategies in Gaza
- Author:
- Margret Johannsen
- Publication Date:
- 08-2011
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Palestine Studies
- Institution:
- Institute for Palestine Studies
- Abstract:
- This article looks at the use of ultra-short-range rockets by Palestinian militant factions in the Gaza Strip as part of the overall dynamic of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and as a tool employed within internal Palestinian rivalries. Against the background of the gross military asymmetry between the parties to the conflict, it assesses the strategic utility of the rockets, including their psychological value as an “equalizer” to Israeli attacks. The article scrutinizes Israel's options to counter the rocket threat and identifies steps toward containing violence in Gaza. While bearing in mind that several Palestinian militant groups are involved in the production, acquisition, and firing of rockets, this article focuses on Hamas because, due to its leadership role in the Gaza Strip, a solution for the rocket issue will not be found without factoring in and providing a role for the Islamic organization.
- Topic:
- Islam
- Political Geography:
- Israel, Palestine, and Gaza