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1542. Seeking a New Devil in Damascus
- Author:
- Oren Kessler
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Journal of International Security Affairs
- Institution:
- Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs
- Abstract:
- TEL AVIV–“Better the devil you know than the one you don't.” It's a 500-year old Irish proverb, but to Mideast policy wonks the phrase is instantly identifiable as Israel's decades-long policy toward its nettlesome neighbor Syria. Nearly four decades have passed since the Yom Kippur War, the last conventional conflict between the two states. During that time, Syrian Presidents Hafez and later Bashar Assad kept their frontier with Israel largely quiet, continuing the fight against it via their proxies Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Palestinian territories. In Israel's never-ending search for regional stability—and amid uncertainty over who might replace the Assads—that arrangement seemed good enough. When in 2005 President George W. Bush asked Ariel Sharon his thoughts about toppling Assad, the Israeli premier responded with a question of his own: “Are you crazy?” Likewise, when Syrians first rose up against their regime last spring, Israeli officials remained cagey. Asked last March for comment, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu replied laconically, “Any answer I'll give you wouldn't be a good one.” Shlomo Brom, a former head of IDF strategic planning and an Israeli negotiator with Syria in the 1990s, described Bashar Assad as a “known quantity,” while veteran diplomat Dore Gold urged caution given the volatility caused by anti-government dissent spreading “from the Turkish border down to the Suez Canal.”
- Topic:
- Government
- Political Geography:
- Israel, Lebanon, and Syria
1543. Chinese Military Modernization and Force Development: A Western Perspective
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman and Nicholas S. Yarosh
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The US and China face a critical need to improve their understanding of how each nation is developing its military power and how to avoid forms of military competition that could lead to rising tension or conflict between the two states.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Israel
1544. Political and Social Foundations for Reform: Anti-Corruption Strategies for the Philippines
- Author:
- Michael Johnson
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Corruption in the Philippines diverts, delays, and distorts economic development, undermines the quality and credibility of democracy, and reduces the quality of life. That is so not just because of its extent but also because it comes in particularly disruptive and intractable forms. Philippine corruption is an example of the Oligarch-and-Clan syndrome—one found in countries offering significant and expanding political and economic opportunities in a setting of very weak institutions, but a pattern shaped by historical, cultural, and geographical influences specific to the country. Oligarch-and-Clan corruption is particularly disruptive, in development terms. Because of institutional weaknesses and the power of corrupt oligarchs and their followings, it often faces ineffective opposition. More than other syndromes it is closely linked to violence, and sharply limits the state's ability to perform such basic functions as revenue collection, maintenance of institutional foundations for the economy, law enforcement, conflict resolution, and dealing with security threats.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Corruption, Democratization, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Israel and Philippines
1545. Malaysia's China Policy in the Post-Mahathir Era: A Neoclassical Realist Explanation
- Author:
- KUIK Cheng-Chwee
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Malaysia's China policy in the post-Cold War era – as an instance of a smaller state's strategy toward a proximate and rising great power – has been characterized by three patterns. First, there was a shift from hostility and guarded rapprochement during the Cold War to cordiality and maturing partnership in the post-Cold War era. Second, despite the overall positive development, Malaysia's China policy has remained, in essence, a hedging approach that is driven by both a pragmatic desire to maximize benefits from a closer relationship with the neighboring giant and a contingent calculation to guard against any long-term strategic risks in the uncertain regional environment. Third, such a two-pronged approach, which took shape since the 1990s under Mahathir Mohamad, has endured beyond the Mahathir era. Indeed, under his successors Abdullah Ahmad Badawi and Najib Tun Razak, Malaysia has continued to pursue a policy of dualism vis-à-vis China. What explains the enduring continuity of the hedging approach in Malaysia's China policy? This paper adopts a neoclassical realist perspective, arguing that the continuity is attributed to both structural and domestic factors. Domestically, the changing bases of political legitimation in the multi-ethnic country, which highlight the increasing salience of economic performance and political inclusiveness as key sources of moral authority to the UMNO-led coalition government, have necessitated the succeeding leaders to continue pursuing a pragmatic policy aimed at ensuring a stable and productive relationship with China, not least to gain from the steadily growing bilateral trade and the giant's growing outward investment. Structurally, Malaysia's position as a smaller state has compelled it to be constantly vigilant about the uncertainty of state intentions and inter-great power relations, which in turn demands it adopts contingent measures to hedge against longer-term risks. It is such structural and domestic determinants that have fundamentally shaped the country's policy towards China in general and the South China Sea issue in particular, which characteristically bears the mark of a delicate dualism, i.e. an explicit preference for engaging China through bilateral and multilateral diplomacy, but one that is backed by a low-key practice of maintaining and strengthening its traditional military links with its Western security partners.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Cold War, Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- China, Malaysia, and Israel
1546. Birleşmiş Milletler Palmer (Mavi Marmara) Raporu ve Uluslararası Hukuk
- Author:
- Yusuf Aksar
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Uluslararasi Iliskiler
- Institution:
- Uluslararasi Iliskiler
- Abstract:
- 31 Mayıs 2010 tarihinde, İsrail askerlerinin Mavi Marmara başta olmak uzere, Filistin'in Gazze topraklarına insani yardım goturmeyi ve Gazze'ye uygulanan ablukaya dunya kamuoyunun dikkatini cekmeyi hedefl eyen konvoya acık denizde gercekleştirdikleri saldırı ve neticesinde sivil insanların oldurulmesi ve yaralanması olayı uluslararası toplumu derinden etkilemiştir. Olayın her yonunun incelenmesi duşuncesiyle, Birleşmiş Milletler İnsan Hakları Konseyi bir Araştırma Komisyonu (fact-fi nding mission) kurarken, Birleşmiş Milletler Genel Sekreteri de ayrı bir Soruşturma Komisyonu (Panel of Inquiry) oluşturmuştur. Palmer Raporu olarak da bilinen Mavi Marmara olayına ilişkin eski Yeni Zelanda Başbakanı Geoff rey Palmer başkanlığında oluşturulan Birleşmiş Milletler Soruşturma Komisyonu tarafından hazırlanan rapor, Temmuz 2011'de kamuoyuna acıklanmıştır. Raporun en carpıcı bulgusu 4. sayfasında olup şu şekildedir; “deniz ablukası Gazze'den silah girişini onlemek icin konulan bir hukuki guvenlik onlemidir ve uygulanması uluslararası hukuk kurallarına uygundur. Ozellikle, Raporda, İsrail'in Gazze'ye uyguladığı deniz ablukasının ve İsrail askerlerinin yardım konvoyuna mudahalesinin, meşru mudafaa kapsamında uluslararası hukuka uygun olduğu sonucuna varılmış olması, uluslararası alanda buyuk tartışmalara sebep olmuştur. Bu calışmanın amacı, Raporun ulaştığı sonucların, uluslararası hukukta kuvvet kullanma, meşru mudafaa, deniz hukuku (ozellikle deniz ablukası) ve devletin sorumluluğuna yonelik kurallar ile ne kadar uyum icerisinde olduğunu tartışmaktır. Bu sebeple, ilk olarak olayın gelişimi ve Birleşmiş Milletlerin tepkisi kısaca ele alınacak, sonra, İsrail'in uyguladığı deniz ablukası ve hukuka uygunluğu tartışılacaktır. Calışma, tarafl ar arasındaki krize muhtemel cozum onerileri ile sonuclandırılacaktır.
- Political Geography:
- Israel and New Zealand
1547. By Invitation, Mostly: the International Politics of the US Security Presence, China, and the South China Sea
- Author:
- Christopher Freise
- Publication Date:
- 08-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- Much attention has been devoted to the Obama Administration's “Pacific Pivot” and the vocal reassertion of an upgraded security, economic, and diplomatic presence in East Asia by the United States. Commentators have ascribed various rationales to these efforts, including speculation that this is part of a “containment” strategy towards China, a reaction to the US presidential election cycle, or, more benignly, an effort to forestall concerns of American withdrawal from the region. These explanations have some elements of truth, but also fall short of fully describing or understanding the strategic rationale behind these moves.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Israel, and Asia
1548. Jerusalem, Netanyahu and the two-state solution
- Author:
- Daniel Seidemann
- Publication Date:
- 08-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
- Abstract:
- What are Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's real intentions vis-à-vis Israeli–Palestinian negotiations and the two-state solution? What does he really want? Speculation aside, a great deal can be gleaned about both Netanyahu's core beliefs and his intentions by examining his words and his actions with respect to Jerusalem. Jerusalem is universally recognised as a key permanent status issue, which, for any peace agreement, will require the reconciling of competing Israeli and Palestinian claims as well as recognition and protection of Jewish, Muslim and Christian equities. In the context of the current political stalemate, however, it has become much more than that. Today, Jerusalem is both the volcanic core of the conflict – the place where religion and nationalism meet and combine in a potentially volatile mix – and a microcosm of the conflict and the imbalance of power that characterises developments on the ground.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Treaties and Agreements, and Territorial Disputes
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia
1549. Regional implications of the conflict in Syria: a view from Israel
- Author:
- Yossi Alpher
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
- Abstract:
- Syria is geo-strategically, historically and politically the most central of Middle East countries, hence the over-riding importance of the conflict there. Yet any discussion of the regional implications of that conflict is necessarily highly speculative. Its points of departure are the instances of regional intervention and "overflow" from the situation already taking place. Turkey, with its open support for the armed Syrian opposition, is the leading candidate to establish "safe zones" or even "humanitarian corridors" that could conceivably lead to war. Ankara's growing rivalry with Iran is increasingly being acted out in Syria and is interacting with tensions between Sunni Muslims and Alawites/Shias not only in Syria, but in Lebanon and Iraq as well.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Regime Change, Bilateral Relations, and Territorial Disputes
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Syria
1550. The future of Israel-Palestine: a one-state reality in the making
- Author:
- Khalil Shikaki
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
- Abstract:
- With no agreement on a two-state solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict in sight, one-state dynamics are gaining momentum – a development that will be difficult to reverse or even contain. In the medium and long term, no one benefits from such a development. Indeed, all might lose: an ugly one-state dynamic has no happy ending, and such a solution is rejected by Palestinians and Israelis alike. Instead, the emerging one-state reality increases the potential for various kinds of conflicts and contradictory impulses. The international community too finds itself unprepared and perhaps unwilling to confront this emerging reality, but in doing so it imperils the prospects for peace in the region – the exact thing it seeks to promote.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Treaties and Agreements, and Territorial Disputes
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia