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301. In Search of 'Suitable Positions' in the Asia Pacific: Negotiating the U.S. China Relationship and Regional Security

Author:
Evelyn Goh
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
This paper argues that the crucial determinant of Asia-Pacific security is whether the US and China can negotiate their relationship and their relative positions and roles in such a way as to produce sustainable regional stability. It examines three alternative models to assess some of the possible processes and outcomes in negotiating Sino-American coexistence. (I) Power transition, in which there is a significant structural shift in the regional system as a rising China challenges US dominance, with a range of possible outcomes; (II) The maintenance of the status quo of US strategic dominance over the region, which China does not challenge concentrating instead on inernal consolidation and on developing its economic power; and (III) Negotiated change, by which the two powers coordinate to manage a more fundamental structural transformation, either through froming a concert (duet) of power, or by moving towards a regional security community. The paper suggests that Model II is likely for the short-to medium-term; Model III for the medium term; and Model I for the long term.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
United States, China, Israel, and Asia

302. Multilateral Arms Control and the Challenge of North Korea

Author:
Chung-in Moon
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
The North Korean problem is composed of two inter-related issues, namely nuclear weapons and missiles. The current quasi-crisis on the Korean peninsula has resulted mainly from disputes over North Korea's nuclear weapons development that involves three dimensions. The first dimension is the suspicion on its past possession of nuclear warheads (one or two) before the signing of the Geneva Agreed Framework (Agreed Framework) in 1994. The second one centers on present nuclear issues related to reprocessing of 8,000 spent fuel rods stored in water pond and manufacturing and exports of plutonium as well as production of additional nuclear warheads, which were previously frozen by the 1994 Agreed Framework. The third dimension is the future nuclear problem associated with the development of highly enriched uranium (HEU) program. The United States claims that North Korea admitted its existence during its special envoy, James Kelly's visit to Pyongyang in October 2002.
Topic:
Security and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:
Geneva, Israel, and North Korea

303. Saudi Arabia's Dubious Denials of Involvement in International Terrorism

Author:
Dore Gold
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
Saudi Arabia's past involvement in international terrorism is indisputable. While the Bush administration decided to redact 28 sensitive pages of the Joint Intelligence Report of the U.S. Congress, nonetheless, Saudi involvement in terrorist financing can be documented through materials captured by Israel in Palestinian headquarters in 2002-3. In light of this evidence, Saudi denials about terrorist funding don't hold water. Israel retrieved a document of the International Islamic Relief Organization (IIRO) which detailed the allocation of $280,000 to 14 Hamas charities. IIRO and other suspected global Saudi charities are not NGOs, since their boards of directors are headed by Saudi cabinet members. Prince Salman, a full brother of King Fahd, controls IIRO distributions "with an iron hand," according to former CIA operative Robert Baer. Mahmoud Abbas, in fact, complained, in a handwritten December 2000 letter to Salman, about Saudi funding of Hamas. Defense Minister Prince Sultan has been cited as a major IIRO contributor. It was hoped, after the May 12 triple bombing attack in Riyadh, that Saudi Arabia might halt its support for terrorism. Internally, the Saudi security forces moved against al-Qaeda cells all over the kingdom. But externally, the Saudis were still engaged in terrorist financing, underwriting 60-70 percent of the Hamas budget, in violation of their "roadmap" commitments to President Bush. Additionally, the Saudis back the civilian infrastructure of Hamas with extremist textbooks glorifying jihad and martyrdom that are used by schools and Islamic societies throughout the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Ideological infiltration of Palestinian society by the Saudis in this way is reminiscent of their involvement in the madrassa system of Pakistan during the 1980s, that gave birth to the Taliban and other pro bin-Laden groups.
Topic:
Security, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia

304. Ten Years Since Oslo: The PLO's "People's War" Strategy and Israel's Inadequate Response

Author:
Joel S. Fishman
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
Israel and the PLO have been confronting each other according to completely different paradigms of conflict. Since the late 1960s, the PLO has adopted a "people's war" paradigm that continued to guide its policies even after the signing of the 1993 Oslo Accords. According to the "people's war" paradigm, borrowed from Marxist-Leninist traditions in China and Vietnam, conflict is waged on both the political and military levels, but for militarily weaker guerilla groups, political conflict is more important, especially the delegitimization of an adversary and the division of his society. Prior to 1993, Israel largely responded to the PLO militarily as a terrorist threat, but not politically. After 1993, with the PLO "renouncing" terrorism, Israel embraced the PLO leadership and ignored the signs that the PLO was still engaged in political warfare against it (incitement, reluctance to alter PLO Covenant, UN votes, textbooks). Israeli governments later complained about these symptoms of political warfare, without identifying the cause. Established Israeli traditions place undue emphasis on the narrowly-framed military approach to the detriment of the political, which leaves Israel particularly vulnerable to broad-based strategic deception. Israeli policy-makers must reexamine the assumptions upon which they have based political and military policy over the last decade.
Topic:
Security, Religion, and War
Political Geography:
China, Middle East, Israel, Vietnam, Arab Countries, and Oslo

305. Unilateral Separation as Roadmap Insurance

Author:
Gerald M. Steinberg
Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
The record of formal efforts to negotiate peace in protracted ethno-national conflicts (Balkans, N. Ireland, Sri Lanka, etc.) is not encouraging. Israel needs a serious insurance policy, in the form of unilateral separation, to minimize vulnerability to another and potentially more deadly terror campaign, should the "roadmap" fail. The construction of a separation barrier is supported by over 70 percent of the Israeli public, representing a broad consensus from across the political spectrum that favors a physical barrier blocking access to Israeli cities in order to prevent a resumption of the Palestinian terror campaign of the past three years. Political separation will also promote a two-state solution, allowing Israel to remain a culturally Jewish and democratic society while fostering Palestinian sovereignty. Key policy issues concern the pace of construction and the route to be taken for the remaining sections. While options range from a minimalist 300 km line to a 600 km alternative that would include most Israeli settlements, a pragmatic middle route including settlement blocs like Ariel and Gush Etzion may provide the optimum mix under present circumstances. If the Palestinian security framework proves its capabilities in preventing terror, and political negotiations on borders progress, the barrier can be relocated.
Topic:
Security, Religion, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Sri Lanka, Palestine, Arabia, Balkans, and Ireland

306. The UN and the Assault on Israel's Legitimacy: Implications for the Roadmap

Author:
Anne Bayefsky
Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
The roadmap has significant roots in the UN, an organization long understood as biased against Israeli interests and Jewish well-being in general. Examples include the work of the UN "Special Committee to Investigate Israeli Practices Affecting the Human Rights of the Palestinian People and Other Arabs of the Occupied Territories," established in 1968, and the UN "Committee on the Exercise of the Inalienable Rights of the Palestinian People," created in 1975. There is a pressing need to clarify with the American administration what attributes of sovereignty will not be accorded a Palestinian state with provisional borders prior to final status negotiations. Israel must reassert that its consent is necessary for any decision affecting its essential interests. An American commitment to object to any unilateral declaration of independence should be immediately forthcoming and clearly understood by the parties. The UN and the European Union must be kept out of any monitoring and assessment function. Recognition of a fundamental breach, and the ability to apply the necessary consequences, require that precise and public monitoring by Israel start now.
Topic:
Security, Religion, and United Nations
Political Geography:
America, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

307. Defensible Borders for Israel

Author:
Dore Gold
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
The quest for defensible borders has been an axiom of Israeli governments since 1967 on the basis of UN Security Council Resolution 242. Defensible borders for Israel has been explicitly backed by Washington since the Reagan administration. In Rabin's last Knesset address he made clear that Israel "will not return to the 4 June 1967 lines." He insisted on a map including a united Jerusalem, the settlement blocs, and the Jordan Valley. In 2003, Israeli planners will have to operate under the assumption that the dismantling of the Palestinian terrorist infrastructure will be incomplete, and should a Palestinian state nonetheless be established, its complete demilitarization will not be reliable. During the Oslo years, the Palestinian leadership was in material breach of the military clauses of the Interim Agreement, seeking to import illegal weaponry like SA-7 shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles and manufacturing Qassam rockets. Many of the same security figures who breached Oslo now serve the government of Mahmud Abbas. Moreover, fundamentalist groups like Hamas that mentioned the Islamic term hudna, for cease-fire, understood that it means a truce that is maintained until the balance of power changes. This means they will seek rearmament; Israeli military intelligence was, in fact, reporting that Hamas had accelerated production of Qassam rockets in early July. In their pronouncements, Hamas and Islamic Jihad have even used a weaker term: ta'liq - a temporary cessation of hostilities. In the wake of the decline of the threat from Iraq, Israel will require defensible borders to meet the growing lethality of the Palestinian threat, backed by the assistance of Iran, Syria, and Saudi Arabia. The Bush administration should provide Israel with assurances concerning defensible borders as it seeks Israel's acquiescence to the creation of a Palestinian state.
Topic:
Security, Government, and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Jordan

308. Should Israel Now Send a Message to the Arab World?

Author:
Dan Diker
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
The impending renewal of Arab-Israeli contacts after the Aqaba summit is an appropriate occasion to reassess one of the weak points of Israel's information effort. At the 1991 Madrid Peace Conference, then Deputy Foreign Minister Binyamin Netanyahu "broke the ice" with scores of Arab reporters when he provided articulate explanations of Israel's positions. Eytan Bentsur, Director General of Israel's Foreign Ministry at the time of Madrid, saw Israel's "paternalistic" approach to the Palestinians at Oslo as contributing to the ultimate collapse of the peace process. The launch of Arab satellite television in 1994 provided Israel with direct access to millions of Arab and Muslim viewers throughout the Middle East. Prime Minister Sharon's foreign media advisor, Raanan Gissin, is regularly interviewed on the leading Arab channels. Despite the high standards of news programming on Israel's new Arabic-language Middle East Satellite Channel, it is not widely viewed in the Arab world because it is recognized as an Israeli government operation. ArabYnet, an Arabic translation of the popular Ynet news website of the Israeli Hebrew daily Yediot Ahronot, has become one of the most popular Arabic language websites on the Internet, with nearly a million unique monthly users. It is a commercial site that presents an Israeli point of view but with no particular political agenda.
Topic:
Security, Government, and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

309. Does the International News Media Overlook Israel's Legal Rights in the Palestinian-Israeli Conflict?

Author:
Dan Diker
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
International news organizations covering the Arab-Israeli conflict frequently refer to international agreements and resolutions in ways that are prejudiced against Israel's legal rights and claims. Frequent references to Israel's legal obligation to withdraw to the pre-1967 borders are inconsistent with UN Security Council Resolution 242 and the Oslo Accords. Neither the Oslo Declaration of Principles of September 1993 nor the Oslo II Interim Agreement of 1995 require either Palestinians or Israelis to refrain from the construction of settlements, neighborhoods, houses, roads, or any other similar building projects. References in the news media to “occupied Arab East Jerusalem” reflect an underlying assumption that eastern Jerusalem has always been an Arab city like Damascus or Baghdad, ignoring the fact that Jerusalem has had an overwhelmingly Jewish majority as far back as the mid-nineteenth century. Despite UN Secretary General Kofi Annan's announcement on 25 July 2000 that Israel had fully implemented UN Resolution 425 when it unilaterally withdrew from southern Lebanon, news organizations have continued to refer to the Shaaba Farms, located on Israel's side of the border with Lebanon, as “disputed.”
Topic:
Security, Religion, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, Jerusalem, Lebanon, and Oslo

310. September 11: Its Implications for American Jewry

Author:
Steven Windmueller
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
Martin Buber wrote: "Each Jew represents the mirror image of the collective soul of the Jewish people." In recent times, we have described ourselves as a proud people, assured of our place in the modern world. But the events of September 11 left us numbed and confused as to its meaning and message. The tragic events of that day fused with the events that occurred a year earlier in Israel with the onset of the second intifada, and may have fundamentally transformed the Jewish experience in our times.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
America, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

311. How to Help Palestinian Refugees Today

Author:
Scott B. Lasensky
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
The collapse of the Oslo process and ever worsening Israeli-Palestinian violence demonstrate that certain long-held "truths" about the conflict need to be turned on their heads - none more so than the accepted wisdom that the Palestinian refugee problem, long a source of regional instability and a breeding ground for suicide terrorists, can only be addressed as part of a final settlement. Rather than follow a comprehensive agreement, ameliorating the Palestinian refugee problem increasingly looks like a necessary precondition for a permanent Israeli-Palestinian settlement. It might even be required for a meaningful resumption of negotiations.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Czech Republic

312. Bring the Troops Home: Ending the Obsolete Korean Commitment

Author:
Doug Bandow
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The U.S. alliance with the Republic of Korea has been America's most consistently dangerous commitment since the end of World War II. Yet South Korea is beginning to look away from the United States for its defense. Newly elected President Roh Moo-hyun campaigned on a plat-form of revisiting the security relationship, and he has attempted to adopt the role of mediator between America and North Korea.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
United States, America, Israel, East Asia, and Korea

313. Fundamentalist terrorism - the assault on the symbols of secular power

Author:
Jost Halfmann
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
Abstract:
Jost Halfmann argues that fundamentalist terrorism is an extreme expression of protest against the separation of state and religion; this form of protest is motivated by a utopian vision of society as a community of the faithful. The protest against secular states arises in states with forced modernization politics (such as Iran or Egypt), but also in states which base national identity on religion (such as Israel) and in states with high popular religiosity (such as the US). The terrorist form of protest exhibits an extreme form of self-ascribed marginality. Terrorism seems to be the only expression of protest when the enemy is considered overwhelmingly powerful, the struggle must, however, not be lost. Fundamentalist terrorists view themselves as being engaged in a cosmic war enforced on them by the enemy. Terrorist assaults are, therefore, symbolic acts of violence against symbols of the enemy's power to demonstrate emporarily the enemy's weakness.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Iran, Israel, and Egypt

314. Arrows for India?

Author:
Richard Speier
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
When Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon visits India on September 9-11, he is likely to explore the possible sale of Israeli Arrow antiballistic missiles to New Delhi. The United States, which has provided funds and technology for the Arrow since 1986, has a veto right over sales to third parties. U.S. approval of a sale to India would offer both advantages and disadvantages.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, India, Israel, New Delhi, and Arabia

315. Turkish Water to Israel?

Author:
Ayca Ariyoruk
Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
A Turkish delegation is expected to be in Israel within the next few weeks, perhaps as early as August 20, to sign an agreement committing Israel to buy 50 million cubic meters (mcm) of water annually from Turkey for the next twenty years. Once the operational details -- price, timeline, and transportation methods -- are worked out, Turkish water will flow to Israel via purpose-built supertankers.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

316. Reading Between the Lines of the Sharm Al-Shaykh Summit

Author:
Robert Satloff
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
At yesterday's Sharm al-Shaykh summit, President George W. Bush persisted in his post-September 11 campaign to transform the Middle Eastern landscape, an effort that includes not only promoting Israeli-Palestinian peace but transforming intra-Arab politics as well. A close reading of the carefully crafted statements by Bush and his Egyptian host, President Hosni Mubarak, offers a revealing look into where U.S. and Arab leaders agree, disagree, and choose to remain ambiguous on critical issues facing the region.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Egypt

317. Hizballah on the Defensive

Author:
Yoram Yoffe
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In almost all of his speeches, Hizballah secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah has spoken about the pride that his organization brought to Arabs by forcing Israel to withdraw from Lebanon in May 2000. Now, however, the coalition forces have trampled on this pride: the Iraqi regime collapsed, and Baghdad fell without offering much resistance. Speaking on April 24, Nasrallah warned that "the most dangerous challenge now facing Arabs is the sense of hopelessness and stupor that has followed in the wake of Iraqi occupation." Indeed, on a variety of fronts, Hizballah is suddenly facing a new regional landscape that is inimical to its interests.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Baghdad, Arabia, and Lebanon

318. Trying to Walk a Fine Line? Hizballah's Stakes in the Current War

Author:
Yoram Yoffe
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Amidst the war in Iraq, the Lebanese group Hizballah has decided not to open up what could have been a "second front" by attacking Israel. This decision should not be mistaken for passivity, however. With the world paying scant attention, Hizballah is seeking to shape Arab public opinion against the United States. It is important to understand the underlying forces that drive Hizballah's campaign against the United States so as to better comprehend the organization's stakes in the Iraq war and its aftermath.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

319. Bush and Blair: Tensions in the Relationship

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
This week, speaking at the annual policy conference of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), U.S. secretary of state Colin Powell, after mentioning the war in Iraq, declared, "no challenge, no opportunity, is more important, more pressing, than the quest to put an end to the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians." Such wording is similar to sentiments expressed in recent weeks by British prime minister Tony Blair. However, there are indications that Washington's view about Israeli-Palestinian issues sharply differs from that of London.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Iraq, America, Europe, Middle East, Israel, London, Palestine, and Arabia

320. Special Policy Forum Report: Jordan's Economic Upturn

Author:
Bassem Awadallah
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Jordan has always been regarded as a buffer state, wedged between turmoil to its east in Iraq and to its west in Israel and the West Bank. While those neighbors have faced turbulence in recent years, Jordan has enjoyed three years of substantial economic growth. Indeed, Jordan provides a positive example of what reform can accomplish in the Arab world.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Jordan

321. NATO Decisionmaking: Au Revoir to the Consensus Rule?

Author:
Leo L Michel
Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
It should come as no surprise that North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) officials are fond of citing Mark Twain's retort to doomsayers that reports of his death were greatly exaggerated. Having survived many rough tests since its birth, the 54-year-old alliance is still working to recover from a bruising disagreement among its members over the decision by some to oust Saddam Hussein's regime. Its services, however, are still very much in demand: About 37,000 NATO-led military personnel remain on crisis management duty in the Balkans. NATO recently launched its first out-of- Europe operation, taking command of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan. In July 2003, the Senate voted unanimously to encourage the Bush administration to seek help from NATO in Iraq. Several prominent Members of Congress and nongovernmental experts have called for a NATO peacekeeping mission between Israelis and Palestinians.
Topic:
Security, NATO, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Iraq, Europe, North Atlantic, Israel, and Balkans

322. Resolving Korea's Nuclear Crisis: Tough Choices for China

Author:
Howard M. Krawitz
Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Clearly, Washington and Beijing do not see eye to eye on North Korea. From the U.S. perspective, North Korea is a rogue state (one that is still technically a U.S. enemy, to boot), with an announced intent to develop further its nuclear capability and acquire nuclear weapons—in spite of formal agreements in which Pyongyang promised not to engage in such pursuits. Pyongyang's rhetoric and behavior highlight its willingness to use nuclear blackmail as a tool for achieving its aims. It has heightened tensions by implying that it might export nuclear weapons or fissile material if its needs are not met. Summed up, North Korea poses a tangible, real-time threat to U.S. allies in East Asia and to U.S. national security interests.
Topic:
Security and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
China, Washington, Israel, and North Korea

323. Iran: Discontent and Disarray

Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The decision to award the Nobel Peace Prize to Shirin Ebadi, a courageous human rights lawyer, has focused renewed attention on the deep divisions and tensions within Iran. How these work out, and how Iran defines its role in the world, will have a critical impact on a range of wider security issues, from Iraq and Afghanistan to the Arab-Israeli conflict and the future of nuclear non-proliferation.
Topic:
Security, Demographics, Development, Economics, Politics, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iran, Israel, and Arabia

324. The Strategic Importance of US-Korea Economic Relations

Author:
Marcus Noland
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Despite the passage of 50 years since an armistice ended military hostilities, the Korean peninsula remains divided, a Cold War vestige that seemingly has been unaffected by the evolution that has occurred elsewhere. If anything, US confrontation with North Korea—a charter member of its “axis of evil”—has intensified in recent years. Yet today, increasing numbers of South Koreans, accustomed to living for decades in the shadows of the North's forward-deployed artillery, do not regard the North as a serious threat. Growing prosperity and confidence in the South, in marked contrast to the North's isolation and penury, have transformed fear and loathing into pity and forbearance. Instead, it is the United States, an ocean away, that regards the North and its nuclear weapons program with alarm. As the United States has focused on the nuclear program, its ally, South Korea, has observed the North Koreans' nascent economic reforms and heard their talk of conventional forces reduction, and the gap in the two countries' respective assessments of the North Korean threat has widened dangerously, threatening to undermine their alliance.
Topic:
Security and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Israel, East Asia, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and Korea

325. Weapons of Mass Destruction in the Middle East Regional Trends, National Forces, Warfighting Capabilities, Delivery Options, and Weapons Effects

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Reasons for proliferating outweigh disincentives,and motivation is growing. Arms control regimes harass proliferators without stopping stem and fail to offer non-proliferators security. War fighting concepts are likely to lack clear structure and be highly volatile in terms of enemy, targets, and crisis behavior. Only a few leadership and military elites -- such as Egypt and Israel -- have shown a concern with highly structured strategic planning in the past. Iran-Iraq and Gulf Wars have demonstrated missiles and weapons of mass destruction will be used. Israeli actions in 1967 and attack on Osirak, Egyptian and Syrian attack on Israel in 1973, demonstrate regional focus on surprise and preemption. Iraq has already demonstrated regional concern with launch on warning, launch under attack options. Syria probably has some option of this kind. Concentration of population and leadership in single or a few urban areas makes existential attacks possible.
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Syria, and Egypt

326. The Arab-Israeli Military Balance in 2002 Part Four: Trends in Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Weapons

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Reasons for proliferating outweigh disincentives, and motivation is growing. Arms control regimes harass proliferators without stopping stem and fail to offer nonproliferators security. War fighting concepts are likely to lack clear structure and be highly volatile in terms of enemy, targets, and crisis behavior. Only a few leadership and military elites -- such as Egypt and Israel -- have shown a concern with highly structured strategic planning in the past. Iran - Iraq and Gulf Wars have demonstrated missiles and weapons of mass destruction will be used. Israeli actions in 1967 and attack on Osirak, Egyptian and Syrian attack on Israel in 1973, demonstrate regional focus on surprise and preemption. Iraq has already demonstrated regional concern with launch on warning, launch under attack options. Syria probably has some option of this kind. Concentration of population and leadership in single or a few urban areas makes existential attacks possible.
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Egypt

327. Security Factors and Responses in the Emerging Mediterranean Strategic Setting

Author:
Roberto Aliboni
Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
During the Cold War, threats coming from across the Mediterranean Sea to Europe and the Western world in general were strictly related to the East-West confrontation. National security was not endangered by possible attacks from the Mediterranean or Middle Eastern countries as such but by the East-West escalation South-South conflict could be able to give way to. In this sense, the Arab-Israeli conflict was a central threat to Western security. What was frightening was not the military power of the regional countries but their alliance with the Soviet Union and the possibility of what at that time was called horizontal escalation (as opposed to East-West direct vertical escalation).
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Europe, Israel, Soviet Union, and North Africa

328. Why are Israel's Public Relations so Poor?

Author:
Dan Diker
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
The Israel State Comptroller's report released on October 7, 2002, leveled unprecedented criticism on Israel's public relations efforts. The State Comptroller revealed that "since its establishment in 1948, Israel's intelligence organs have not succeeded to respond to the broad-based propaganda and incitement by the Arab world." The report also emphasized that "the lack of a central authority to direct and coordinate all government information bodies to execute a public relations policy is the main factor accounting for Israel's longstanding failures in this field."
Topic:
Security, Government, and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

329. Understanding the Breakdown of Israeli-Palestinian Negotiations

Author:
Lt. Col. Jonathan D.H.
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
The second Camp David summit (July 2000) was the culmination of nearly ten years of political dialogue between Israel and the representatives of the Palestinian people, and of almost six years of interim agreements since the mutual recognition of Israel and the PLO. Yet Camp David II did not result in the conclusion of an Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement to end the protracted conflict between the Palestinian national movement and the Jewish national (Zionist) movement. The negotiations between Israel's Prime Minister Ehud Barak and Palestinian Authority (PA) Chairman Yasser Arafat (who also heads the PLO and the Fatah movement), under the auspices of U.S. President Bill Clinton, rather highlighted the wide differences between the two sides on the fundamental issues of the conflict.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

330. Legal Aspects of the Palestinian Refugee Question

Author:
Ruth Lapidoth
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
Until September 2000, hopes were high that soon an agreement on the final status of the West Bank and Gaza would pave the way for peaceful coexistence between Israel and the Palestinians. These hopes have unfortunately been shattered, as Palestinians violently attacked Israelis in both the administered territories and in Israel proper, provoking violent reactions by Israel. One could wonder what purpose there is in analyzing legal issues related to a peaceful settlement when violence is the order of the day. If we nevertheless examine some of the legal issues, it is because we have not yet lost hope that sooner or later the guns will be silenced and the parties will return to the negotiating table. The underlying conflict is mainly of a political nature. However, for several reasons it should also be analyzed from a legal perspective. First, some of the questions involved are overwhelmingly of a legal nature. Second, the parties base their claims on legal arguments. And, third, if and when a compromise is reached, it will be drafted in legal terms and be included in a legal text. This is also true of the question of Palestinian refugees.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

331. Understanding American Christian Attitudes Regarding Jerusalem

Author:
David Raab
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
The unity and control of Jerusalem have been among the most contentious and complex issues in Israel-Arab relations. Until recently, Israel's stance that Jerusalem would remain under its sole sovereignty as its eternal, undivided, and sole capital was not open to compromise. That position enjoyed near-unanimity among Israelis, the international Jewish community, and Congress.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
America, Middle East, Israel, and Arab Countries

332. Who Killed Muhammad Al-Dura? Blook Libel — Model 2000

Author:
Amnon Lord
Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
The story of the death of the child Muhammad Al-Dura — who, according to reports from world and local media, was shot and killed by IDF soldiers at Netzarim junction — became the symbol of the intifada: the Palestinian martyr whose blood must be avenged by the Muslim and enlightened world. His death turned into a blood libel accompanying the terror and violence, and it became the altar upon which the good name of the people and the State of Israel was sacrificed during the last two years. The world was flooded with pictures of the dead child. As a result of, among other things, world incitement originating with the mantra: "Israel murders Palestinian children," the UN conference in Durban turned into a frightening anti-Semitic crusade.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

333. Israeli Arabs: Expectations and Realities

Author:
Gerald B. Bubis
Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
The riots by Israeli Arabs in October 2000, which took place in conjunction with the outbreak of a renewed wave of Palestinian violence against Israeli Jews, resulted in the deaths of 12 Israeli Arabs (and one from the West Bank) in confrontations with the police. The widespread rioting shocked the Israeli Jewish community and the Arabs even more.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

334. The Broken Promise of the Democratic Peace: Israel and the Palestinian Authority

Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
The idea of the democratic peace, although not explicitly named, was an essential element of the Oslo Accords. The term "democratic peace" is generally understood to have two components: the assertion that democracies are inherently peaceful, and that they do not, as a rule, wage war against other democracies. This ideal would have represented the most desirable type of final arrangement to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict because it predicates an environment of shared values, of political, social, and economic stability. The issue of the democratic peace is also one of security, because the presence or absence of its main components may ultimately represent the essence of success or failure, peace or war.
Topic:
Security, Religion, and War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arab Countries, and Oslo

335. Poison: The Use of Blood Libel in the War Against Israel

Author:
Raphael Israeli
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
On the morning of March 21, 1983, one week before Pesach, in a high school in the town of Arrabeh in the Jenin area of the West Bank, Palestinian girls (between the ages of 15 and 17) were sitting in several classrooms when they suddenly began to faint, one after the other. They were taken to hospital and checked, but no medical reason was found for their fainting. Yet they had fainted, so a search began in order to find the reason.
Topic:
Security, Religion, and War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

336. Europe's Moral Attitudes Toward the Holocaust in Light of the Current Defamation of Israel

Author:
Manfred Gerstenfeld
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
The moral aspects of Western attitudes toward the Jews and the Holocaust since World War II have not yet been analyzed systematically. However, the current campaign of hatred against Israel and the Jewish people — unprecedented since the end of the war — recalls many elements of the prewar decades. Yet it is too easy to generalize and describe this as one more outburst of the ancient illness of anti-Semitism.
Topic:
Security, Religion, and War
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Arab Countries

337. The Phalcon Sale to China: The Lessons for Israel

Author:
Jonathan Adelman
Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
The Israeli decision, under intense American pressure, to cancel the sale of the Phalcon Airborne Early Warning System to China during the Camp David summit in July 2000 threatens to be a major foreign policy debacle for Israel.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Religion
Political Geography:
China, America, Middle East, Israel, and Arab Countries

338. The Way to Peace Emerged at Madrid: A Decade Since the 1991 Madrid Conference

Author:
Eytan Bentsur
Publication Date:
02-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
The October 1991 Madrid Peace Conference represented a breakthrough in relations between the State of Israel and the Arab world. For the first time, Israel engaged in direct, face-to-face negotiations with all its immediate neighbors, and not just with Egypt, with whom Israel had signed a peace treaty in 1979. These talks were between the political leaders of the region, unlike the armistice discussions that Israel undertook in the late 1940s and 1950s. Madrid also launched a multilateral process that brought Israeli diplomats into contact with representatives of Arab states from North Africa and the Persian Gulf.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Arab Countries, North Africa, Egypt, and Persia

339. Israel's Political Map: After Cancellation of Direct Election of the Prime Minister

Author:
Haim Ramon
Publication Date:
02-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
Following the last prime ministerial elections held in Israel in February 2001, the Knesset voted to change the electoral system and restore the former system. Instead of separate ballots for prime minister and for political party, in the next nationwide elections, currently scheduled to take place by the fall of 2003, voters will again be given only one ballot — for political party — and the leader of the party that is able to put together a majority coalition in the Knesset will become prime minister.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Arab Countries

340. Keeping Al-Qaeda out of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

Author:
Benjamin Orbach
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Initial suspicions, select intelligence reports, and growing evidence have indicated that al-Qaeda played a role in Thursday's attacks on an Israeli-owned hotel and airliner in Mombasa, Kenya. If this evidence proves accurate, the attacks signal a shift in al-Qaeda's choice of targets and demonstrate a new danger to immediate U.S. interests in the Middle East. After almost a year of silence, Osama bin Laden (or someone speaking in his name) has resurfaced with a revised political agenda meant to mobilize the Arab and Muslim worlds against the United States. Through two recent communications – a November 12 statement and a less publicized "Letter to the American People" distributed on the internet and translated by the British Observer on November 24 – al-Qaeda has made the Palestinian issue the new focal point of its allegations against the United States.
Topic:
Security, Religion, and War
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

341. Special Policy Forum Report: Prospects for Palestinian Economic Reform

Author:
Maher Al-Masri
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The Palestinian economy has reached a situation like none it has ever experienced before. For several years leading up to 1999, average annual growth within the PA was estimated at 6.5 percent. Unemployment shrank to around 11.5 percent, poverty figures were on the decline, and, for the first time, the Palestinian economy was absorbing more Palestinian laborers than Israel. The economy might have been in an even better situation had trade and border conditions not been under strict Israeli control. Under such control, transported goods often had to be unloaded, checked, and reloaded, on top of several other impediments to the free flow of goods. Despite these impediments, however, the economy was progressing at a significant pace.
Topic:
Security, Religion, and Reform
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

342. Missing a Target: Missile Testing and U.S. Middle East Policy

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Over the course of a few days at the end of May, Iran conducted a missile test; Pakistan conducted three such tests; and Israel launched a reconnaissance satellite. Each of these instances serve as proof, if any were needed, that missiles are becoming an important part of the military scene in the Middle East and Southwest Asia. The question for Washington is how the growing sophistication of Middle East/Southwest Asian missiles will affect the stability of this volatile region.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Pakistan, United States, Middle East, Israel, Asia, and Arabia

343. Special Policy Forum Report: The Powell Mission and the Bush Speech: Making Peace Possible?

Author:
Dennis Ross
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Secretary of State Colin Powell and Prime Minister Ariel Sharon exchanged warm words regarding the U.S.-Israel relationship at a press conference on April 12, but underneath that they presented two distinct approaches to stopping the current violence in the region. Sharon emphasized that Israel is conducting a war on terror, stressing that completing the ongoing military operation is of the utmost importance. Powell was sympathetic to Israel's need to defend itself, but he emphasized finding a political answer to the conflict, one tied to a timetable for ending Israeli military operations.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

344. Public Diplomacy: Effective Strategies for the Future

Author:
Helena Kane Finn
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The day after a devastating suicide attack on the Israeli town of Netanya killed some twenty people celebrating the Passover Seder, Maria Rosa Menocal published an op-ed in the New York Times entitled "A Golden Age of Tolerance." In it, she reminded readers that "a thousand years ago on the Iberian Peninsula, an enlightened vision of Islam had created the most advanced culture in Europe. . . . [W]hat strikes us today about Al Andalus is that it was a chapter of European history during which Jews, Christians, and Muslims lived side by side, and despite intractable differences and enduring hostilities, nourished a culture of tolerance."
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
New York, Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

345. Special Policy Forum Report: Middle East Policy Update: Where Are We Going? How Do We Get There?

Author:
Patrick Clawson and Dennis Ross
Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Neither Prime Minister Ariel Sharon nor Chairman Yasir Arafat could have foreseen a year ago what is happening today — namely, an escalating spiral of terror and reprisal. Sharon believed that by insisting on "no negotiations under fire" and increasing pressure on the Palestinians, he could stabilize the situation. By sending his son to meet with Arafat, he also sought to convey that he would indeed negotiate once the violence stopped. Arafat believed that fissures would grow within Israeli society, or that a worsening of the situation would bring international intervention that either imposed a solution or enabled him to maneuver more freely. Neither leader got what he had hoped for.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

346. New Arenas for Iranian-Sponsored Terrorism: The Arab-Israeli Heartland

Author:
Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:
02-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Director of Central Intelligence George Tenet testified before the Senate Select Intelligence Committee on February 6 that Iran continues to be "the foremost state sponsor of terrorism." Citing its attempt to transfer offensive arms to the Palestinian Authority (PA) aboard the Karine-A smuggling ship, Tenet said that there has been "little sign of a reduction in Iran's support for terrorism in the past year."
Topic:
Security, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

347. Religion and Politics in Alexandria

Author:
Reuven Paz
Publication Date:
02-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On January 20-21, an interfaith summit of Muslim, Christian, and Israeli Jewish leaders convened in Alexandria, Egypt, after several years of effort and planning. The meeting did not draw much attention in the Egyptian or Palestinian media — only in the Israeli media — but it deserves attention, if not for the religious dimension, then at least for the political.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, and Egypt

348. Syria and the War on Terrorism: Challenges for U.S. Policy (Part II)

Author:
Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
With its longstanding support for terrorism, both pre- and post-September 11, Syria poses a unique challenge to U.S. antiterror strategy. Unlike Iran — whose leaders orchestrate public chants of "Death to America, death to Israel" and thereby provide rhetorical context to their sponsorship of terrorism — Damascus proclaims its desire for warm ties with the United States and its commitment to a "comprehensive" peace with Israel. Specifically, Syria has benefited from its role in the Arab-Israeli peace process and its suzerainty over Lebanon. These factors have for years combined to provide Syria with a measure of protection against U.S. (and Israeli) antiterror initiatives.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
America, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Syria

349. Anticipating Strategic Surprise on the Korean Peninsula

Author:
James J. Przystup
Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Despite the current stagnation in South-North dialogue, relations between the Koreas have been subject to sudden shifts. In the warm afterglow of the historic June 2000 South-North Summit in Pyongyang, South Korean President Kim Dae Jung's engagement policy appeared to have created a self-sustaining dynamic. Policymakers in Washington and Seoul scrambled to manage the potential diplomatic and security consequences of a rapid breakthrough in bilateral relations driven by presidential summitry.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Security
Political Geography:
Israel, Korean Peninsula, and Pyongyang

350. Nonviolent Voices in Israel and Palestine

Author:
Mohammed Abu-Nimer
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
Abstract:
In addition to supporting an immediate cease-fire, moderates on both sides of the Middle East conflict should develop joint initiatives that acknowledge a shared sense of humanity. Cross-ethnic projects to provide aid to all victims of violence and interfaith efforts to acknowledge the loss of human lives on both sides would reduce complacency in the face of continued violence. Further, a popular, nonviolent campaign to promote compliance with human rights standards would strengthen civil and political participation and marginalize the radicals.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine