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101. China Brief, New Challenges in the Election Season

Author:
Stephen Green, Willy Lam, Eric Teo, and Alexandr Nemets
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Although the Chinese leadership faces no electoral contenders, Beijing will soon have to deal with two uncertain but crucial elections in the next four months, the consequences of which could have serious implications for China's internal political cohesiveness as well as regional stability. In September, Hong Kongers will elect their Legislative Council (Legco), of which 30 seats are set aside for election through universal suffrage and the other 30 through “functional representation.” And in December, Taiwanese go to the polls to choose their next Legislative Yuan (Taiwan's legislature), nine months after they had renewed the mandate of President Chen Shui-Bian for a second term in March.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China, Israel, and Taiwan

102. China Brief, No More 'Soft Sell' for Hong Kong

Author:
Willy Lam, Zhu Feng, Kevin Scott, Marat Yermukanov, and Andrew Thompson
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Beijing has acted quickly to dash the hopes that the half-a-million-people rally in Hong Kong last week will change the leadership's hard-line stance toward universal-suffrage elections in the special administrative region (SAR). While the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has continued with its public-relations, united-front offensive to win hearts and minds in the territory, it is expected to step up its divide-and-run tactics in order to isolate and marginalize pro-democracy politicians and intellectuals who dare challenge Beijing's suzerainty.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China, Israel, Beijing, and Hong Kong

103. China Brief, A Prisoner's Dilemma: The EU's China Arms Embargo

Author:
Willy Lam, Richard A. Bitzinger, Alexandr Nemets, and Enzio Von Pfeil
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
In April, the European Union (EU) dodged a bullet by refusing to take up the issue of overturning its 15-year-old ban on selling arms to China. Supporters of lifting the embargo, led by France and Germany, are unlikely to abandon their quest, however, and the issue will likely come up again for review, perhaps as early as this summer. If it lifts the ban, the EU risks further damaging a transatlantic alliance already strained over Iraq and other issues, with very little likelihood that its defense industry would see much, if any, benefit.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Israel

104. China Brief, A Warming Friendship: Part II of a Two Part Series on China, Taiwan, and Latin America

Author:
Willy Lam, Drew Thompson, Cynthia Watson, and James P. Jr. Muldoon
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
The recent spate of articles on China's growing energy and natural resource consumption is a key explanation for Beijing's growing interest in South America. While the continent remains at least fourth on China's list of priorities, the vast array of resources available, coupled with a growing population eager to increase its consumption of goods, makes this part of the world ever more enticing. The People's Republic of China (PRC) seeks to put a modest investment in diplomatic, military, cultural, and trade relations for a possible long-term gain of significant proportion.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China, Israel, Beijing, and South America

105. China Brief, Balancing U.S. Interests in the Strait

Author:
Ronald N. Montaperto, Willy Lam, Cynthia Watson, and Jean-Pierre Cabestan
Publication Date:
05-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
In the view of many observers, the normalization of Sino-American relations signaled the end of a strategic relationship with the Republic of China (Taiwan) that had endured with but one brief interruption for forty years. The rapid growth of economic ties between the U.S. and mainland China in the 1980s seemed to confirm this assessment. Although political connections through the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) remain strong, the major benefit to the United States of its unofficial relationship to the island lies in the economic realm.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, China, Israel, and Taiwan

106. China Brief, The Dragon's Drive for Caspian Oil

Author:
Ahmad Lutfi, John C. K. Daly, Stephen Bank, and Sergei Troush
Publication Date:
05-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
China's insatiable energy thirst is causing it to undertake a global search for energy supplies to sustain its booming economy. Beijing has injected itself into the complex Caspian chess match to ensure itself as large a share as possible of resources being developed there. This complex political and economic maneuvering forces China to deal with the Caspian's five riparian states - Russia, Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Iran, Israel, Kazakhstan, Beijing, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan

107. China Brief, Kim Jong-Il's Visit to Beijing: What Does it Mean for the West?

Author:
Mohan Malik, Matthew Oresman, Willy Lam, and Paul H.B Godwin
Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
The unusually effusive reception that the Chinese leadership accorded Dear Leader Kim Jong-Il last week has buttressed speculation that Beijing and Pyongyang probably reached some form of a deal even prior to the long awaited visit. According to diplomatic sources in Beijing, Kim agreed during discussions with his Chinese hosts to take a “more serious and proactive stance” toward the ongoing six-nation talks on dismantling his country's weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Moreover, the sources said the reclusive leader pledged that unless there was further “provocation” from the United States, Pyongyang would not engage in tension raising gimmicks such as testing bombs or missiles. And, at least for the time being, a freeze would be put on the development of new WMD.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, China, Israel, Beijing, and Pyongyang

108. China Brief,China's Reaction to America's Iraq Imbroglio

Author:
You Ji, Igor Rotar, Willy Lam, and Eric Teo
Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership has been at pains not to appear to be gloating over the American quagmire in Iraq. Yet in terms of geopolitical calculus, there is little doubt Beijing sees America's worsening problems in Iraq as beneficial to China's global standing, diplomatically and militarily. Capitalizing on fissures in the international community over Iraq and America's war on terror, China has strengthened ties with key members of the European Union and the United Nations in an effort to counterbalance U.S. hegemony. Meanwhile, Chinese experts' scrutiny of the exploits as well as challenges of American and Allied Forces in Iraq will have a big impact on the People's Liberation Army's (PLA) ambitious modernization drive.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China, Iraq, America, Europe, Israel, and Beijing

109. China Brief, Chen shui-bian after the election: lame duck or phoenix?

Author:
Bernard D. Cole, Willy Lam, Arnold Zeitlin, and Harvey Stockwin
Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Beijing's unusually cautious response to Taiwan's disputed presidential polls shows that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership has yet to come to a consensus on how to deal with four more years of administration under 'splittis' President Chen Shui-bian. This, despite the fact that with the country's fastgrowing economic, military and diplomatic clout, Beijing would seem to enjoy unquestioned superiority over the increasingly divided island of Taiwan.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China, Israel, Taiwan, and Beijing

110. China Brief,Cross-Strait Relations In Taiwan's Presi - Dential Elections

Author:
Willy Lam, Jonathan Mirsky, Enzio von Pfeil, and Ashok Kapur
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
No military action for the Taiwan Strait--not even psychological warfare oriented missile drills such as those undertaken in late 1995 and early 1996--is being planned by the People's Liberation Army (PLA) for the coming year or so. And this will be true whether President Chen Shui-bian or his challenger, Kuomintang (KMT) Chairman Lien Chan, wins in the hotly contested polls on March 20. However, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership is readying hardball solutions to the reunification problem for the medium-term.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China, Israel, and Taiwan

111. China Brief, Understanding Chinaís North Korea Policy

Author:
Frank Ching, You Ji, Willy Lam, and Eric Teo
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
The two rounds of six-party talks in Beijing on the Korean nuclear standoff have demonstrated China.s unusual support for a multilateral solution to the conflict. This is symbolic of the country.s new diplomacy under Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabo. As is typical, Beijing is seeking to maximize its diplomatic gains for reasons related to national prestige and regional stability. What is new, however, is that the two leaders are trying to achieve these goals by having China act as a status quo power rather than through revisionist behavior. This change is vividly reflected in the fact that China has proven more willing to cooperate with the United States and is more determined to pressure North Korea. This brief article attempts to evaluate some of the domestic and international factors that are driving China to sponsor the six-party talks. conflicts on the Peninsula.with severe security implications for China. In the last few years two schools of thought have emerged in Beijing with respect to Chinese policy toward the DPRK. The first of these is the .buffer zone. school. It argues that, Pyongyang.s ill intentions and unpredictable adventurism notwithstanding, North Korea.s very existence remains of great strategic value to a China whose worst security nightmare is that of another Korean war. Moreover, any regime change that might occur in the DPRK as a result of war could bring the deployment of U.S. troops to positions close to the Sino-Korean borders. And taking into consideration a possible showdown between China and the United States in the Taiwan Strait, this could result in a hostile military presence right on China.s doorstep. Indeed, it was precisely this worst case scenario that China fought a war fifty-four years ago to prevent.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, China, Israel, Taiwan, Beijing, North Korea, Korea, and Pyongyang

112. Competition Law and Policy in Japan

Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
Japan's Fair Trade Commission, created in 1947, is one of the oldest and largest competition law enforcement agencies in the world. Before the 1990s, though, competition had usually played a subordinate role in Japan's regulatory policies, while aspects of Japan's traditional approach to regulation had contradicted principles of modern competition policy. Over the past decade of reform in Japan, this attitude toward competition policy has been changing.
Topic:
Development, Government, and International Law
Political Geography:
Japan and Israel

113. Taiwan Strait IV: How an Ultimate Political Settlement Might Look

Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Each side's most preferred solution for resolving the continuing Taiwan Strait issue – in the case of Taipei, widely recognised de jure independence; and in the case of Beijing, reunification of China on the same 'one country, two systems' basis as Hong Kong – are both non-starters. Neither society is likely to accommodate the other or change to the degree necessary to make either option realistically achievable, even ten or fifteen years down the road. If the risk of conflict across the Taiwan Strait – too serious to be accepted with equanimity, as the tensions of the last few months have shown – is to be reduced, then there has to be new thinking about what an ultimate political settlement might look like, and how to get there.
Topic:
Government, Politics, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
China, Israel, Taiwan, Beijing, East Asia, and Hong Kong

114. Building Venture Capital Industries: Understanding the U.S. and Israeli Experience

Author:
Martin Kenney, Gil Avnimelech, and Morris Teubal
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
Abstract:
During the growth phase of every venture capita (VC) business cycle, it seems as though both local and national governments in various countries initiate policies aimed at establishing VC industries as part of a high-technology economic development strategy. It is remarkable how each time there seems to be a proliferation of ill-advised policies that are usually reminiscent of the ones tried during the previous phase. Not surprisingly, in a distressingly large number of cases, the “new” policies to foster VC meet with minimal success or fail outright. While the causes of failure are undoubtedly multiple, there is ample room for believing that often the policies were based on a simplistic or incomplete understanding of the roots and dynamics that have led to the development of self-sustaining national VC industries. This paper uses historically informed case studies of Israel and the U.S. to develop an appreciative model of how the VC industries in these two nations came into being. Our model and understanding of this process is deliberately evolutionary and systemic. We believe that this perspective is the only one capable of providing both scholars and policy-makers with a grounded understanding of the emergence and development of the VC industries in these two nations.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Industrial Policy, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States and Israel

115. India and Israel Move Closer Together

Author:
Armand Cucciniello and Pramit Mitra
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's short visit to India in early September, the first by an Israeli prime minister, highlighted the dramatic expansion in a relationship that started only 12 years ago. Before Sharon's early departure because of two suicide bombings back home, ministers from both countries signed six agreements covering visa requirements, environmental protection, combating illicit drug trafficking, and an initiative to begin an educational exchange program. The accent, however, was on the rapidly growing military supply relationship. Balancing its relations with Israel and its still important ties with the Muslim Middle East, especially its major oil suppliers, will be a growing challenge for India's policymakers.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
South Asia, Middle East, India, and Israel

116. Israeli Democracy Depends on Peace with the Palestinians

Author:
Heiko Wimmen
Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
HW: Professor Peled, during the two years of Ariel Sharon's tenure as prime minister, Israel has seen a steep economic decline, and a rapidly deteriorating security situation. Yet Mr. Sharon enjoys more support than any Israeli head of government for a long time. What do you make of this paradox?
Topic:
Government and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

117. Defensible Borders for Israel

Author:
Dore Gold
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
The quest for defensible borders has been an axiom of Israeli governments since 1967 on the basis of UN Security Council Resolution 242. Defensible borders for Israel has been explicitly backed by Washington since the Reagan administration. In Rabin's last Knesset address he made clear that Israel "will not return to the 4 June 1967 lines." He insisted on a map including a united Jerusalem, the settlement blocs, and the Jordan Valley. In 2003, Israeli planners will have to operate under the assumption that the dismantling of the Palestinian terrorist infrastructure will be incomplete, and should a Palestinian state nonetheless be established, its complete demilitarization will not be reliable. During the Oslo years, the Palestinian leadership was in material breach of the military clauses of the Interim Agreement, seeking to import illegal weaponry like SA-7 shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles and manufacturing Qassam rockets. Many of the same security figures who breached Oslo now serve the government of Mahmud Abbas. Moreover, fundamentalist groups like Hamas that mentioned the Islamic term hudna, for cease-fire, understood that it means a truce that is maintained until the balance of power changes. This means they will seek rearmament; Israeli military intelligence was, in fact, reporting that Hamas had accelerated production of Qassam rockets in early July. In their pronouncements, Hamas and Islamic Jihad have even used a weaker term: ta'liq - a temporary cessation of hostilities. In the wake of the decline of the threat from Iraq, Israel will require defensible borders to meet the growing lethality of the Palestinian threat, backed by the assistance of Iran, Syria, and Saudi Arabia. The Bush administration should provide Israel with assurances concerning defensible borders as it seeks Israel's acquiescence to the creation of a Palestinian state.
Topic:
Security, Government, and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Jordan

118. Should Israel Now Send a Message to the Arab World?

Author:
Dan Diker
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
The impending renewal of Arab-Israeli contacts after the Aqaba summit is an appropriate occasion to reassess one of the weak points of Israel's information effort. At the 1991 Madrid Peace Conference, then Deputy Foreign Minister Binyamin Netanyahu "broke the ice" with scores of Arab reporters when he provided articulate explanations of Israel's positions. Eytan Bentsur, Director General of Israel's Foreign Ministry at the time of Madrid, saw Israel's "paternalistic" approach to the Palestinians at Oslo as contributing to the ultimate collapse of the peace process. The launch of Arab satellite television in 1994 provided Israel with direct access to millions of Arab and Muslim viewers throughout the Middle East. Prime Minister Sharon's foreign media advisor, Raanan Gissin, is regularly interviewed on the leading Arab channels. Despite the high standards of news programming on Israel's new Arabic-language Middle East Satellite Channel, it is not widely viewed in the Arab world because it is recognized as an Israeli government operation. ArabYnet, an Arabic translation of the popular Ynet news website of the Israeli Hebrew daily Yediot Ahronot, has become one of the most popular Arabic language websites on the Internet, with nearly a million unique monthly users. It is a commercial site that presents an Israeli point of view but with no particular political agenda.
Topic:
Security, Government, and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

119. China Brief, Sars: Spreading Unrest

Author:
Willy Lam, William R. Hawkins, Harvey Stockwin, and Li Thian-hok
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
The spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome—the SARS virus—throughout China is a phenomenon that had previously been denied by authorities and had gone unreported. But the penetration of the disease is now being admitted publicly, and efforts to combat it have begun. While the immediate epidemic in Beijing appears to be in decline, the fear remains that the spread of SARS within China will still be difficult—and maybe impossible—to control, let alone to eliminate. World Health Organization (WHO) officials admit that what happens in China will “make or break” the course of the epidemic. China's neighbors, and particularly Hong Kong, worry that a failure to curtail the virus will inevitably result in a fresh round of crossborder infection, further intensifying the already grave economic impact of SARS on the region. At worst, a sustained epidemic could bring China's opening-up to the outside world to a screeching halt.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China, Israel, Beijing, and Hong Kong

120. China Brief, Taiwan's presidential countdown: what does it mean for the united states?

Author:
Willy Lam, Arnold Zeitlin, John Tkacik, and Jonathan Mirsky
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Could Taiwan's voters elect a pro-unification candidate in 2004? Can the challenger, Kuomintang chairman Lien Chan, put together an electoral consensus of ethnic mainlanders, Hakkas and ethnic Taiwanese investors in China that will begin the process of moving Taiwan into the embrace of the People's Republic of China? The polls indicate it could be a fifty-fifty proposition, especially if the campaign's focus is the economy—not national identity. Washington should begin to consider its substantial strategic stake in Taiwan, and rethink the message that its diplomats in Taipei are sending Taiwan's public.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China and Israel

121. China Brief, New Disease, New Leaders, Same Old Regime

Author:
Willy Lam, Harvey Stockwin, Gordon G. Chang, and Richard D. Fisher
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
An epidemic, spread by official deception and indifference, is afflicting the Chinese people. What does this disease mean for the People's Republic of China?
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China and Israel

122. China Brief, Beijing studies the U.S. war in Iraq

Author:
Willy Lam, Gordon G. Chang, Richard D. Fisher, and Wangchuk Meston
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Chinese strategic and military experts are scrutinizing the U.S. war in Iraq, and for several reasons. First, if American and British forces become bogged down in their effort to liquidate the regime of Saddam Hussein, then it is much less likely that Washington will soon target other rogue regimes with weapons of mass destruction, such as North Korea, a Chinese ally.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China, Iraq, America, Washington, Israel, and North Korea

123. China Brief, National People's Congress: Popularity and power

Author:
Willy Lam, Harvey Stockwin, Gordon G. Chang, and M. D. Nalapat
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Newly elected President Hu Jintao and his allies should take heart from the results of the recently concluded First Session of the Tenth National People's Congress (NPC).
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China and Israel

124. China Brief, Osama bin Laden in China

Author:
Willy Lam, Ahmad Lutfi, Gordon G. Chang, and Richard D. Jr. Fisher
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Beijing often downplays the size of its Xinjiang problem for fear of exposing the difficulties it faces containing the “cancer of terrorism.” Since September 11, 2001, Beijing has been forced to reverse this policy due to repeated terrorist attacks. The most recent of these took place on February 25, 2003, when two bombs ripped through two of Beijing's most prestigious universities. The blasts shattered Beijing's long-held claim that it has been winning its war on terror.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China, Israel, and Beijing

125. China Brief, Beijing: blockade buster?

Author:
Willy Lam, Gordon G. Chang, William C. Triplett, and Dr. Gulshan Dietl
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Will Kim Jong Il just slam down the phone on China's president, Jiang Zemin? That's what Beijing wants us to think. “If Kim tells Jiang he is going to test a nuclear weapon unless Jiang gives him more aid, what do we do? We give him more aid. We don't have a choice,” says one Chinese analyst who has dealt with Pyongyang. “We have some influence, but we don't have the kind of relationship where we can tell Kim what to do. If we tell him to do something, he doesn't listen. If we threaten him, he listens even less. If Jiang called him, he might hang up.”
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China and Israel

126. China Brief, China's 7-percent solution

Author:
James E. Auer, Willy Lam, Gordon G. Chang, Richard D. Fisher, and Holmes Liao
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
“If we didn't have China I would be suicidal,” chief Morgan Stanley economist Stephen Roach said this month. “It's the only bright spot in the world economy.” And bright spot it is: Beijing announced that its gross domestic product grew 8 percent last year. The rate is so good that some are wondering whether the People's Republic can become the new engine for world growth.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China and Israel

127. China Brief, Xu Wenli, into American exile

Author:
Robyn Lim, Willy Lam, Jonathan Mirsky, and Thomas Woodrow
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
On Christmas Eve the Chinese government released Xu Wenli, the founder of the country's tiny Democratic Party, into American exile. Xu has spent sixteen of the last twenty-one years behind bars. The most interesting comments on this event came from John Kamm, who for years has had no equal for occasionally persuading the Chinese government to free its political “enemies”.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China, America, and Israel

128. The Politics of China's Shareholding System

Author:
Mary Comerford Cooper
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
This paper considers two questions. First, why did the Chinese government establish stock markets? Second, how have political interests shaped the key features of these markets? Based on both interviews and statistical analysis, the paper argues that China's top Party-State leaders attempted to create stock market institutions that allow the state to maintain control over listed companies, and over “the market” as a whole.
Topic:
Economics and Government
Political Geography:
China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

129. China's New Leadership: Paradoxes, Characteristics and Implications

Author:
Cheng Li
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
In his seven-decade-long academic career, the great British historian, Joseph Needham, tried to explain what Sinologists later called “the Needham Paradox.” It was a paradox that, while traditional China had many talented people and was advanced in science, the country declined during the middle part of the last millennium. According to Needham, a primary reason for the decline of China was that the country “lost its edge” by suppressing technicians and merchants “whose power posed a threat to the Emperor.”
Topic:
Government
Political Geography:
China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

130. Taiwan's Approach to Cross-Strait Relations

Author:
Ying-jeou Ma
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
Civil war broke out between the Nationalist Kuomintang (KMT) Government of China and the Chinese Communist forces shortly after Japan surrendered to the Allied forces in 1945. Having occupied most of the country by mid-1949, the Chinese Communists proclaimed in Beijing the establishment of the People's Republic of China (PRC) on October 1, 1949. The Nationalist Government retreated to Taiwan, an island of 13,969 square miles just 90 miles off the coast of the Chinese Mainland, in December that year and continued to call itself the Republic of China (ROC). Sporadic battles continued in coastal areas of the Chinese Mainland.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Israel, Taiwan, Beijing, East Asia, Asia, and Island

131. Why are Israel's Public Relations so Poor?

Author:
Dan Diker
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
The Israel State Comptroller's report released on October 7, 2002, leveled unprecedented criticism on Israel's public relations efforts. The State Comptroller revealed that "since its establishment in 1948, Israel's intelligence organs have not succeeded to respond to the broad-based propaganda and incitement by the Arab world." The report also emphasized that "the lack of a central authority to direct and coordinate all government information bodies to execute a public relations policy is the main factor accounting for Israel's longstanding failures in this field."
Topic:
Security, Government, and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

132. The Meanings of Palestinian Reform

Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Since U.S. President George W. Bush's 24 June 2002 statement on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Palestinian reform has emerged as a key ingredient in Middle East diplomacy. In his statement, the president publicly identified “a new and different Palestinian leadership” and “entirely new political and economic institutions” as preconditions for the establishment of a Palestinian state. In early July, the Quartet of Middle East mediators (the European Union, Russian Federation, United Nations, and United States) established an International Task Force for Palestinian Reform “to develop and implement a comprehensive reform action plan” for the Palestinian Authority (PA). The September 2002 statement by the Quartet underscored reform of Palestinian political, civil, and security institutions as an integral component of peacemaking. The three phase-implementation roadmap, a U.S. draft of which was presented to Israel and the Palestinians by U.S. Assistant Secretary of State William Burns in October, provided details on this reform component.
Topic:
Civil Society, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, and United Nations

133. The Looming Japanese Crisis

Author:
Adam S. Posen
Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
After more than a decade of economic stagnation and minimal structural change, Japan stands on the brink of outright financial crisis—the only debate is whether the Japanese government can dodge its imminent economic threats for another six months at most, or ride the wave of global expansion to throw still more money at these problems with decreasing effectiveness until the public debt becomes unsustainable (which should be no later than 2005). Either way, volatility in Japanese asset markets will be extremely high for the next 36 months, with significant declines on average in asset prices and the yen.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Japan, Israel, and East Asia

134. The Future of North Korea

Author:
Marcus Noland
Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The Korean peninsula has entered a period of considerable change and uncertainty. This paper attempts to sketch out how internal and external forces may shape outcomes in North Korea over the next several years. The range of plausible outcomes is huge, and the paper identifies four possible end states: successful reform and engagement, “muddling through,” elite conflict that could affect the nature of the state, if not the regime, and finally, mass mobilization that could threaten the regime itself. This analysis proceeds under a number of assumptions.
Topic:
Development, Government, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
Israel, East Asia, and North Korea

135. Post-Conflict Peace Operations and Governance in Afghanistan

Author:
Jeff Fischer
Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Academy of Political Science
Abstract:
Over the last two decades, post-conflict military and civilian interventions have occurred with increasing frequency and scope. By illustration, the first UN peacekeeping mission in 1948, the United Nations Truce Supervision Organization (UNTSO), was mandated to supervise the truce of the 1948 Arab-Israeli war, and initially deployed 93 military observers. By contrast, the current international interventions in Kosovo (UNMIK) and East Timor (UNTEAT) are de facto governments, employing thousands of international and local staff with police and military services included in the portfolio.
Topic:
Government, International Cooperation, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, South Asia, Israel, Arabia, and Kosovo

136. Failure of Perception and Self-Deception: Israel's Quest for Peace in the Context of Related Historical Cases

Author:
Joel S. Fishman
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
An examination of the historical record reveals many examples of failures of perception, and of leaders and governments refusing to integrate compelling information of existential importance. Taking account of new information and responding to changing circumstances is vital to man's relationship with his environment. When a dysfunction in the process of absorbing important new knowledge and correcting mistakes occurs, the faculty of rational judgment may be fatefully impaired. While, collectively, the attitude of a society is the sum of those of individuals, occasionally, the perception of a single individual in an influential position may be sufficient to determine a government's policy.
Topic:
Security, Environment, Government, and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

137. Jerusalem in International Diplomacy: The 2000 Camp David Summit, the Clinton Plan, and Their Aftermath

Author:
Dore Gold
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
Since its independence in 1948, and indeed even in prior times, Israel's rights to sovereignty in Jerusalem have been firmly grounded in history and international law. The aftermath of the 1967 Six-Day War only reinforced the strength of Israel's claims. Seven years after the implementation of the 1993 Oslo Agreements, Prime Minister Ehud Barak became the first Israeli prime minister to consider re-dividing Jerusalem in response to an American proposal at the July 2000 Camp David Summit. The December 2000 Clinton Plan attempted to codify Barak's possible concessions on Jerusalem. Yet they proved to be insufficient for PLO Chairman Yasser Arafat, leading to a breakdown in the peace process and an outburst of Palestinian violence with regional implications. At least the failed Clinton Plan did not bind future Israeli governments or U.S. administrations, leaving open the possibility of new diplomatic alternatives. Only by avoiding premature negotiation over an unbridgeable issue such as Jerusalem can the U.S., Israel, and the Palestinians stabilize the volatile situation that has emerged and restore hope that a political process can be resumed in the future.
Topic:
Security, Government, International Law, Religion, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
United States, America, Middle East, and Israel

138. Israel — Sharon Victory

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Likud leader Ariel Sharon's resounding victory in last Tuesday's election for prime minister has produced a chaotic political situation. The Knesset is likely to remain as dysfunctional as it was before the election campaign and Sharon will face immense difficulties in his attempts to form a government and pass the budget. Even should he succeed, it is possible that the government will fall before the next scheduled election, and that he will face a credible challenge from former prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

139. Arab Reactions To Sharon's Victory In The Israeli Election

Author:
Mohamed Abdel-Dayem
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Arab reactions to Ariel Sharon's overwhelming victory in the recent Israeli national election were mixed. Some condemned him with a confrontational tone, while some suggested that the election made no difference — that is, that all Israeli leaders have basically the same stance. Several Arab leaders opted to take a "wait and see" approach. An optimistic minority of Arab commentators viewed Sharon's leadership in a positive light. The following is a representative sampling of Arab reactions to Sharon's victory.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

140. Israel's National Unity Governments: A Retrospective

Author:
Michael Phillips Moskowitz
Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Friday, June 15 marks day one hundred for the Sharon administration and Israel's sixth national unity government. The occasion warrants a look back at the five previous Israeli unity governments.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Government
Political Geography:
Israel and Arabia

141. Palestinian-Israeli Political Fatalities, September 28, 2000 - April 30, 2001

Author:
Liat Radcliffe
Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The following report evaluates trends in Israeli-Palestinian violence during the past seven months using fatality statistics. This analysis covers the period from the outbreak of the "Al Aqsa Intifada" on September 28, 2000 through to April 30, 2001. The following statistics are based primarily on information provided by the Israeli human rights group B'tselem. This data has been cross-checked for accuracy with the Israeli government and U.S. and other Western media sources. For information about fatalities in earlier periods and about methodology, see Peacewatch #317: "Israeli-Palestinian Political Fatalities During The Barak Government: A Statistical Overvie" and Research Note #8: "Trends in Israeli-Palestinian Political Fatalities, 1987-1999."
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

142. Israeli-Palestinian Political Fatalities During The Barak Government: A Statistical Overview

Author:
Liat Radcliffe
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The following report analyzes political fatalities in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict that occurred during the government of Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak (July 7, 1999-March 7, 2001). This report is an update to The Washington Institute's Research Note #8: Trends in Israeli-Palestinian Political Fatalities, 1987-1999. Like the research note, its primary source for data is the Israeli human rights group Btselem, although other sources (including various media sources) were also used. Consistent with the previous study, no deaths that resulted from inter-Israeli or inter-Palestinian violence are included in this report; for example, the deaths of Israeli Arabs, Israeli prime minister Yitzhak Rabin, and accused Palestinian collaborators with Israel are excluded. A main conclusion from the data is that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict increasingly involves official security services, as distinct from civilians.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict and Government
Political Geography:
Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

143. Israel's New Sharon Government

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The formation of a national unity government in Israel today, by a vote 72 to 21, is a triumph for Ariel Sharon. First, he seized the initiative. After his landslide victory a few weeks ago, Sharon did not engage in classic Israeli bargaining tactics in dealing with his Labor Party rivals, but rather caught the defeated and divided party off balance by immediately offering them top cabinet positions in the desire to cement a unity government. Sharon was not intoxicated by the breadth of his victory, but rather followed through on his campaign commitment. Sharon realizes that it is also good politics. According to Gallup's poll taken last week, the Israeli public favors the establishment of such a government by an overwhelming 79 to 14 margin.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

144. Inside Palestinian Politics: Preparing For Israel Under Sharon

Author:
David Schenker
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
As Ariel Sharon prepares to take power following his landslide victory, significant changes are also underway in the Palestinian Authority (PA). In anticipation of Sharon's victory, the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) and leading PA personalities have been preparing a new political agenda to deal with the apparent end of "final status" negotiations and the new Israeli leadership. The most provocative event in recent days has been the issuance of a document — penned by a senior PLO official and longtime associate of PA Ra'is (Chairman) Yasir Arafat — which raises the specter that mainstream Palestinian politics are publicly reverting to the radicalism of pre-Oslo days.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

145. Sharon's Victory: Implications For The Peace Process And U.S. Policy

Author:
Robert Satloff
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The Israeli people spoke in the most dramatic and convincing fashion. Viewed in the U.S. context, Ariel Sharon won a larger share of the vote — 62.5 percent — than any presidential candidate in history. Essentially, Israel voted to express one word: "enough!" — enough violence, enough concessions, enough perception of weakness. They were particularly voting against Barak, both personally and against the policies that characterized his government (dating not only to Camp David but as far back as the earliest days of his cabinet). Certainly, much of yesterday's vote was against Barak more than it was a vote for Sharon; just as Barak's 1999 landslide was less a vote for him than it was a vote against Bibi Netanyahu; just as Netanyahu's 1996 squeaker was less a vote for him than it was a vote against Shimon Peres. Now it's Sharon's turn.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Foreign Policy, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Israel

146. Behind A Looming Sharon Victory

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The deadline has now passed for Ehud Barak to step aside in favor of rival Shimon Peres in Israel's prime ministerial face-off next Tuesday, February 6, against Likud leader MK Ariel Sharon. Analysts have already written off this election for Barak, as Sharon's lead in the polls has barely budged from a 16 to 20 point margin over the last two months. Given that Barak won a landslide victory by a 12.1 percent margin less than two years ago, the scope of his probable defeat is striking — perhaps the most lopsided electoral debacle since Menachem Begin's Herut lost to the Labor forerunner Mapai in 1959 by a margin of 24.7 percent. Barak's electoral free-fall is especially remarkable given that his opponent is someone long regarded as unelectable, due to his advanced age, right-wing political views, checkered past, and evident discomfort with the new media age. Nevertheless, Barak has pressed on, insisting that the real campaign has only just begun. His decision to stay in the race has heightened speculation that he may plan on joining a Sharon-led "national unity government," despite carefully worded protestations to the contrary.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

147. Factors Impeding the Implementation of Privatization

Author:
Yaakov Ne'eman
Publication Date:
11-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
A number of factors are impeding the implementation of privatization in the Israeli economy. Here I will review those factors based on my own experience, both as someone who has represented investors who purchased government companies through privatization processes, and (from the other side of the fence) in my positions in the Ministry of Finance, when I had an opportunity to observe the governmental process from the inside.
Topic:
Security, Government, Privatization, and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

148. Hong Kong Update: Fall 2000

Author:
Frank Ching, Ron Arculli, Steve Tsang, and Sunny Kai-sun Kwong
Publication Date:
09-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Since the Hong Kong Update's first issue was published in September 1997, the purpose of the bulletin has been to gauge accurately the continuing evolution of Hong Kong by presenting a broad spectrum of views on developments in the new Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR). The Update has presented views from Washington, Hong Kong, and other areas of the world by inviting authors from both the U.S. Congress and Hong Kong SAR government; Washington and Hong Kong policy community; and U.S., Hong Kong, and international academics.
Topic:
Civil Society, Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Israel, and Hong Kong

149. Hong Kong Update: Spring 2000

Author:
Frank Ching, Sunny Kai-sun Kwong, Barry Mortimer, Byron Weng, and James C. Hsiung
Publication Date:
03-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Last year was a momentous time for Hong Kong's new mini- constitution, the Basic Law. The history is too well known to detail here. In brief, the Court of Final Appeal (CFA) decided the right of abode cases (Ng Ka Ling and Chan Kam Nga). Later, the Hong Kong government sought and obtained a “clarification” of the judgment and the chief executive applied to the Standing Committee of the National Peoples Congress (NPC) for a further interpretation of the sections interpreted by the CFA (particularly Article 24(2)(3) of the Basic Law). The decision of the CFA stood, but for the future the Standing Committee provided the interpretation contended for by the Hong Kong government. (Should it be thought that the new interpretation was entirely arbitrary it accorded with the one earlier found to be the true interpretation by the Court of Appeal.) Many lawyers, commentators, politicians, and academics alleged that, in consequence, rule of law had been damaged and even that the independence of the judiciary had been diminished. Now that the dust has settled, the time has come to assess calmly the main issues that caused the controversy and see where we now stand.
Topic:
Civil Society, Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Israel and Hong Kong

150. The Israeli Elections: Another Turning Point?

Author:
Alan Dowty
Publication Date:
05-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
Abstract:
The 1999 Israeli elections confirm the emergence of a more centrist Israeli politics A “national unity government” emerging from the elections is a distinct possibility Though the peace process was not a major issue, the outcome will be a renewal of peace talks Deals on both the Palestinian and Syrian fronts may be closer to realization than is generally realized.
Topic:
Government, Peace Studies, and Elections
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Syria