Search

Begin New Search Topic Economics Political Geography India

181. Global Growth and Distribution: Are China and India Reshaping the World?

Author:
Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, Maurizio Bussolo, Rafael E. De Hoyos, and Denis Medvedev
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Over the past 20 years, aggregate measures of global inequality have changed little even if significant structural changes have been observed. High growth rates of China and India lifted millions out of poverty, while the stagnation in many African countries caused them to fall behind. Using the World Bank's LINKAGE global general equilibrium model and the newly developed Global Income Distribution Dynamics (GIDD) tool, this paper assesses the distribution and poverty effects of a scenario where these trends continue in the future. Even by anticipating a deceleration, growth in China and India is a key force behind the expected convergence of per capita incomes at the global level. Millions of Chinese and Indian consumers will enter into a rapidly emerging global middle class—a group of people who can afford, and demand access to, the standards of living previously reserved mainly for the residents of developed countries. Notwithstanding these positive developments, fast growth is often characterized by high urbanization and growing demand for skills, both of which result in a widening of income distribution within countries. These opposing distributional effects highlight the importance of analysing global disparities by taking into account—as the GIDD does—income dynamics between and within countries.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Africa, China, India, and Asia

182. Identification of Regional Fundamental Economic Structure (FES) of India: An Input-Output and Field of Influence Approach

Author:
Sudhir K. Thakur
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This study provides an understanding of the Indian regional economy utilizing the fundamental economic structure (FES) approach. The FES construct implies that selected characteristics of an economy will vary predictably with region size, as measured by net state domestic product, population, and total gross output. The big question addressed in this study is if identifiable patterns of relations between various macro aggregates and economic transactions can be revealed via regional input-output tables. Jensen et al. (1988) discuss the tiered, partitioned, and temporal approaches to the identification of FES using input-output tables. This research addresses the following four questions: (1) Does a regional FES exist for the Indian economy during the period 1965? (2) What proportions of the cells are predictable? (3) Can the 1965 regional FES predict 1983-84 table for Punjab economy? (4) Does regional FES manifest an enhanced understanding of the Indian regional structure? Regression analyses are used to identify the FES and non-FES cells for the Indian regional economy. The regional input-output tables for 21 States and Union Territories provide data for the analysis. Analysis reveals regional FES includes primary and secondary sectors as components of FES. This research has extended the notion of FES to include: weak, moderate and strong FES cells.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
India, Asia, and Punjab

183. Measuring Vulnerability and Poverty: Estimates for Rural India

Author:
Raghav Gaiha and Katsushi Imai
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper measures the vulnerability of households in rural India, based upon the ICRISAT panel survey. We employ both ex ante and ex post measures of vulnerability. The latter are decomposed into aggregate and idiosyncratic risks and poverty components. Our decomposition shows that idiosyncratic risks account for the largest share, followed by poverty and aggregate risks. Despite some degree of risk-sharing, the landless or small farmers are vulnerable to idiosyncratic risks, forcing them to reduce consumption. Income-augmenting policies therefore must be combined with those that not only reduce aggregate and idiosyncratic risks but also build resilience against them.
Topic:
Demographics, Development, Economics, and Poverty
Political Geography:
India and Asia

184. The Political Economy of Successful Reform: Asian Stratagems

Author:
Dennis Arroyo
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
Major economic reforms are often politically difficult, causing pain to voters and provoking unrest. They may be opposed by politicians with short time horizons. They may collide with the established ideology and an entrenched ruling party. They may be resisted by bureaucrats and by vested interests. Obstacles to major economic reform can be daunting in democratic and autocratic polities alike.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China, India, Asia, South Korea, Vietnam, Singapore, and Thailand

185. An Indian Economic Miracle?

Author:
Deepak Lal
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Cato Journal
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
In explaining the acceleration in Indian growth, and to judge if an Indian economic miracle is on its way, it is first necessary to establish when this acceleration began, as this is still subject to controversy. Second it is necessary to identify the sources of this acceleration and to see to what extent these are the results of policy. Third, to provide some reading of the tea leaves until 2030, it is necessary to outline the current constraints on growth. But before that, the current change in Indian economic fortunes needs to be put into historical perspective. This is done in the first part of this article, followed by the next three parts, which deal with the other three broad themes outlined above. As this article is in honor of Angus Maddison, I rely wherever possible on the growth accounting method that he has made so much his own.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
India and Asia

186. Higher Education Reservations and India's Economic Growth: An Examination

Author:
Gurpreet Mahajan
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
In 2006 the Indian Parliament passed legislation reserving an additional 27 percent of seats in all institutions of higher learning, funded by the central government, for the category of socially disadvantaged groups officially known as "Other Backward Classes." At a time when India is opening its economy to global competition, this initiative has re-ignited the debate on the efficacy of reservations and triggered fresh anxieties about the impact of this policy on India's economic growth.
Topic:
Democratization, Economics, Education, and Globalization
Political Geography:
India and Asia

187. The BRICSAM Countries and Changing World Economic Power: Scenarios to 2050

Author:
Manmohan Agarwal
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Rapid economic growth in the large developing countries collectively known as BRICSAM (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa and Mexico) has the potential to change the balance of economic power in the world. This paper analyzes this potential building on developments in these economies over the past four decades in the context of the evolution of the world economy. This evolution has two significant features: increasing economic integration and a hiatus in growth. Increasing integration can be observed in the almost universal rise in the share of the exports of goods and services in GDP, and the increase in private capital flows. There has been a hiatus in growth since the 1973-1974 increase in the price of oil.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Political Economy, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Russia, China, India, South Africa, Brazil, and Mexico

188. Fisheries Trade in India: Understanding Potentials and Barriers.

Author:
Meenakshi Rajeev
Publication Date:
08-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The fisheries sector assumes significance in the Indian economy in several respects. The most important amongst them is the providence of livelihood to many poor households especially located in the coastal areas. These households can generate income from the sector due to the fact that many varieties of marine fishes have been exported from the country including chilled and dried items, fish oil, shrimp and prawns. Thus from the point of view of employment and income generation, international trade has considerable significance as well. It is the trade aspect of the sector that would be the focus of the current paper.
Topic:
Agriculture, Demographics, Economics, and Food
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

189. Colonial Land Tenure, Electoral Competition and Public Goods in India

Author:
Abhijit Banerjee and Lakshmi Iyer
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Social scientists have long emphasized the importance of institutions in nurturing economic growth and development. Douglass C. North defines institutions as the “rules of the game in a society” which limit the set of choices for individuals and argues that institutions, both formal ones such as laws and constitutions, as well as informal ones such as social norms, are important in determining the transaction costs of production and exchange, and thereby have an impact on economic growth. He goes on to discuss the mostly incremental nature of institutional change and highlights the difficulties in implementing radical institutional change. This line of argument therefore suggests that the impacts of institutions are likely to be felt for a very long time, and hence points to the need for detailed historical analysis over long periods in order to quantify the impact of institutions.
Topic:
Economics, Political Theory, and Social Stratification
Political Geography:
India and Asia

190. Regional Overview

Author:
Ralph A. Cossa and Brad Glosserman
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Comparative Connections
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Hopes of progress in Six-Party Talks negotiations evident in the closing days of the previous quarter were quickly dashed as anticipated disagreements over verification of North Korea's nuclear declaration created a stalemate still in evidence at quarter's end. The only movement was backward, as “action for action” was replaced by inaction and worse. Last year, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice made news by not showing up at the annual ASEAN Regional Forum ministerial. This year she went and hardly anyone noticed. The democratic process made for interesting watching this quarter, not only in Thailand and Malaysia, but in East Asia's most established democracy, as Japan saw its third leader in the 24 months since Prime Minister Koizumi departed the scene. The once presumably left for dead U.S.-India nuclear deal was reincarnated by the Indian Parliament this quarter with the U.S. Congress following suit at quarter's end and President Bush's signature in early October. Finally, the U.S. sneezed this quarter and the rest of the world did catch cold, even as Wall Street struggles with a serious bout of pneumonia. Economic policy also dominated the “foreign policy debate” between Senators Obama and McCain, with no questions and only sparse references to Asia throughout.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
India, East Asia, Asia, and North Korea

191. India's Trade Policy Choices

Author:
Sherman Robinson, Sandra Polaski, Scott McDonald, Manoj Panda, and A. Ganesh-Kumar
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
India's economic growth has accelerated in recent years, and its share of world trade has expanded. These are welcome developments for the country and, given India's large share of the world's population, for the global economy. Yet, despite these recent positive trends, India faces daunting challenges and policy decisions if it is to maintain high economic growth rates, employ its burgeoning population, and raise incomes across the full range of households, skill levels, sectors, and regions. India remains the largest reservoir of poverty in the world. Its recent high growth has been driven mainly by its modern services sector, which accounts for only a small proportion of overall employment and household incomes. Its agricultural sector is in a deep crisis, whether measured by slow growth rates, persistent rural poverty, or widespread farmer suicides.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
India

192. Fighting irrelevance: An economic community 'with ASEAN characteristics'

Author:
John Ravenhill
Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Australian National University Department of International Relations
Abstract:
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) enters its fifth decade of economic cooperation in more favourable circumstances than those experienced at the time of its thirtieth anniversary. Paradoxically, and contrary to expectations at the time, the financial crises of 1997—98 may have strengthened ASEAN. The backlash against what was perceived as an unsympathetic Western response to East Asian difficulties put ASEAN at centrestage in new regional cooperative arrangements. Moreover, rivalry between China and Japan for regional leadership has led them both to seek to negotiate regional partnerships with ASEAN as a whole. ASEAN, however, faces new challenges—particularly from rapid economic growth in China and India, and from the proliferation of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) (including a large number involving individual ASEAN members). ASEAN has made only slow progress in economic cooperation. The complete removal of tariffs has fallen behind schedule and is not due to be realised until 2010. The private sector makes little use of ASEAN's preferential arrangements because they afford little advantage over most-favoured-nation tariffs—certainly not sufficient to offset the costs of complying with paperwork, and the consequent delays experienced. ASEAN has made little progress on 'deeper integration' issues—the removal of 'beyond border' barriers to trade. Some of the bilateral PTAs that ASEAN countries have negotiated with extra-regional partners go further in removing barriers than ASEAN's own arrangements. ASEAN members continue to eschew binding commitments within their own economic collaboration despite making them within the World Trade Organization and in some of their bilateral PTAs. Liberalisation under ASEAN's auspices has not been sufficiently significant to encourage business groups to invest substantial resources in lobbying for deeper integration.
Topic:
International Relations and Economics
Political Geography:
Japan, China, India, Israel, East Asia, and Australia/Pacific

193. Minds on Fire: Enhancing India's Knowledge Workforce

Author:
Richard P. Adler
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
India's economy continues to grow at a remarkable pace. The country's gross domestic product (GDP) has been expanding an average of nearly 8 percent per year since 2002. In the fiscal year ending March 2007, India's economy grew at 9.4 percent. This performance means that the Indian economy met its own national five-year growth goal for the first time since the first five-year plan was issued by the government in 1950. At its current rate of growth, India will become a trillion-dollar economy by 2007–2008 and will overtake South Korea to become Asia's third-largest economy, after China and Japan.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Education, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Japan, India, Asia, and South Korea

194. Reform of the International Monetary Fund

Author:
Peter B. Kenen
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is undertaking a wide-ranging reform of its governance and operations within a framework proposed by Rodrigo de Rato, its managing director. The proposed reform is inspired in large part by the emergence of large middle-income developing countries such as China and India, which now play a major role in the world economy but are underrepresented in the Fund as the low-income developing countries. The proposed reform is also inspired by the need to simplify the Fund's internal practices and focus more intensively on its basic mandate: to “oversee the development of the international monetary system in order to ensure its effective operation.”
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and India

195. Sustainability of Economic Growth in India

Author:
Rajiv Kumar, Amitendu Palit, and Karan Singh
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
The robust performance of the Indian economy in recent years, with economic growth averaging 8.5%, has generated intense debate regarding India's future economic prospects. Indeed, the future of more than a billion people, many of whom still exist in degrading and unacceptable poverty and deprivation, depends critically on India's ability to grow fast at high rates. This paper, while examining the issue, argues that India's recent economic performance is a result of it's entering a virtuous circle of growth generated by some key structural drivers. The latter include a dynamic private sector, benign external environment and a wellfunctioning democracy. The paper also points out that high growth can be sustained only if necessary policies are adopted for removing binding constraints like poor infrastructure, stagnant agriculture and lack of fiscal space. The paper identifies education as the most critical sector requiring reforms, followed by public goods delivery and labour markets.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
India and Asia

196. India Country Risk Report

Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
The Indian National Congress party, which heads the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government, is doing relatively well in the opinion polls and may be tempted to call an early general election within the next six months (the poll must take place by May 2009). However, the outcome of the election is likely to be another coalition government. Major reform-oriented policy changes are unlikely to be pushed through in the run-up to the election, particularly given the rift between the UPA and its leftist political allies. Monetary policy will be put on hold in 2008 while inflationary pressures abate. Real GDP growth is forecast to moderate slightly, to 7.9% in fiscal year 2008/09 (April-March) and 7.2% in 2009/10. Strong domestic demand will lead to a widening of the merchandise trade deficit over the forecast period, but surpluses on the services and transfers accounts will limit the current-account deficit to an annual average of 1.5% of GDP in 2008-09.
Topic:
Economics, Political Economy, and Privatization
Political Geography:
India and Asia

197. India and its Neighbours: Do Economic Interests Have the Potential to Build Peace?

Author:
Charu Lata Hogg
Publication Date:
11-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Until a decade ago, India was regarded largely as a poor developing country with low visibility on the global political and economic front. A multitude of factors, most prominently its emerging global economic strength, have led India not only to redefine its self-image but also to adopt a new political role both internationally and within its immediate neighbourhood.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
China, South Asia, India, and Asia

198. Macroeconomic Determinants of Exchange Rate Pass-Through in India

Author:
Ramkishen S. Rajan and Amit Ghosh
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Department of Economics and Business, Colorado College
Abstract:
This paper examines the evolution of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) into India's consumer price index (CPI) at the aggregate level over the period 1980Q1-2006Q4. It also investigates whether the extent of exchange rate pass-through is impacted by common macro fundamentals such as inflation and exchange rate volatility. Finally, the paper also tests for possible asymmetries of ERPT during periods of depreciation versus appreciation.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

199. India's Future: It's About Jobs

Author:
Geoffrey N. Keim and Beth Anne Wilson
Publication Date:
11-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Projections of sustained strong growth in India depend importantly on the utilization of the huge increase in India's working-age population projected over the next two decades. To date, however, India's economic growth has been concentrated in high-skill and capital-intensive sectors, and has not generated strong employment growth. In this paper, we highlight the tension between India's performance in output and employment, describe the characteristics of India's demographic dividend, and discuss impediments to India's shift away from agriculture.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Markets
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

200. Childhood Mortality and Economic Growth

Author:
Sonia Bhalotra
Publication Date:
07-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper investigates the extent to which the decline in child mortality over the last three decades can be attributed to economic growth. In doing this, it exploits the considerable variation in growth over this period, across states and over time. The analysis is able to condition upon a number of economic and demographic variables. The estimates are used to produce a crude estimate of the rate of economic growth that would be necessary to achieve the Millennium Development Goal of reducing the under-5 mortality by two-thirds, from its level in 1990, by the year 2015. The main conclusion is that, while growth does have a significant impact on mortality risk, growth alone cannot be relied upon to achieve the goal.
Topic:
Civil Society, Economics, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
India