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901. Fall 2021 edition of Strategic Visions

Author:
Alan McPherson
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Strategic Visions
Institution:
Center for the Study of Force and Diplomacy, Temple University
Abstract:
Contents News from the Director . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Fall 2021 Lecture Series . . . . . . . . 2 Fall 2021 Prizes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 New: The Emerging Scholar Graduate Award! . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Spring 2022 Lecture Series Announcement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Note from the Davis Fellow . . . . . . . . . 6 CENFAD Community Interviews Q&A with Ethan Cohen, Inaugural Immerman Awardee . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Eric J. Perinovic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Dr. David B. Zierler . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Dr. Silke Zoller . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 Dr. Benjamin Talton . . . . . . . . . . 45 Book Reviews Making the Forever War: Marilyn B. Young on the Culture and Politics of American Militarism, reviewed by Alexandra Southgate . . . . . . . . . . 61 The Ends of Modernization: Nicaragua and the United States in the Cold War Era, reviewed by Joseph Edward Johnson . . . . . . . . 65
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Cold War, Military Affairs, and Diplomatic History
Political Geography:
Nicaragua and Global Focus

902. Spring 2021 edition of Strategic Visions

Author:
Alan McPherson
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Strategic Visions
Institution:
Center for the Study of Force and Diplomacy, Temple University
Abstract:
Contents News from the Director Colloquium………………………..2 CENFAD sponsored lectures……...3 Prizes………………………………4 CENFAD Workshop………………4 Thanks to the Davis Fellow……….5 News from the CENFAD Community…6 Note from the Davis Fellow……………9 Book Reviews A Wall of Our Own: An American History of the Berlin Wall Review by Brandon Kinney…..11 Civil Aviation and the Globalization of the Cold War Review by Michael Fischer…..13 Imperial Metropolis: Los Angeles, Mexico, and the Borderlands of American Empire, 1865–1941 Review by Amanda Summers..15 Educating the Empire: American Teachers and Contested Colonization in the Philippines Review by Madison Ingram…17 Fantasy Island: Colonialism, Exploitation, and the Betrayal of Puerto Rico Review by Graydon Dennison..19 Beatriz Allende: A Revolutionary Life in Latin America Review by Michael Onufrak….21
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Cold War, Military Affairs, Empire, Diplomatic History, and Statecraft
Political Geography:
United States, Philippines, Germany, Latin America, Global Focus, and Puerto Rico

903. The Global Economic Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Second Wave and Policy Implications

Author:
Gyeong Lyeob Cho, Minsuk Kim, and Yun Kyung Kim
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This paper examines the macroeconomic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic through the Computable General Equilibrium model. Due to a second wave and a subsequent delay in economic recovery, the pandemic could lead to a permanent shock in capital accumulation and productivity. This implies that the shock may not merely affect the short-term growth rate but also negatively impact the future economic growth path from its pre-pandemic trend. Through simulations, in the mild scenario, countries lose 0.10% to 0.31% of their future economic growth rates; in the severe scenario, they lose 0.21% to 0.69%.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

904. The UN and the use of "serious games" as an element of citizen awareness: Survival case study/La ONU y el uso de “serious games” como elemento de concienciación ciudadana: Estudio de caso de Survival

Author:
Antonio César Moreno
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
Games have always been a powerful tool for learning behaviours and attitudes necessary for an efficient socio-cultural performance. In today's digital society this role is played mainly by video games. They provide video players with skills and abilities typical of the time and facilitate the learning of complex processes effectively. The UN, through its different agencies and through various Education programmes, has used this format to bring together and raise awareness among citizens about the main international issues, such as crises and the displacement of refugees. The aim of this text is to analyse how these issues are projected through the case study of the Spanish video game Survival, as well as to assess whether it is a useful tool for raising awareness and providing adequate information to the population. To this end, this article will analyze the message of this title as well as initiatives such as the UNAOC's PEACEapp initiative./Los juegos han constituido siempre una poderosa herramienta de aprendizaje de conductas y actitudes necesarias para el eficiente desempeño sociocultural. En la actual sociedad digital ese papel lo protagonizan, principalmente, los videojuegos. Estos proveen a los video jugadores de habilidades y destrezas propias de la época y facilitan el aprendizaje de procesos complejos con eficacia. La ONU a través de sus diferentes agencias y mediante diversos programas de Educación se ha servido de este formato para aproximar y concienciar a la ciudadanía sobre las principales problemáticas internacionales, como las crisis y desplazamientos de refugiados. El objetivo del presente texto es analizar cómo se proyectan estos temas a través del estudio de caso del videojuego español Survival así como valorar si es una herramienta útil para concienciar e informar adecuadamente a la población. Para ello analizaremos el mensaje de este título e iniciativas como la iniciativa PEACEapp de la UNAOC.
Topic:
United Nations, Refugees, Media, Citizenship, Digital Culture, and Video Games
Political Geography:
Global Focus

905. Non-State Actors’ Cyberattacks and States’ “Cyber-due diligence”/Los ciberataques de los actores no estatales y la “ciberdiligencia debida” de los Estados

Author:
Andrea Cocchini
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
Peacetime cyberattacks by groups of hacktivists, transnational criminal organizations or terrorist groups, increase every year, being the most frequent cyber threat against States’ IT infrastructures. Given this reality, the international community does not have developed yet an effective legal tool in order to attribute international responsibility to those States from whose territory non-State actors launch their cyberattacks against other countries. Therefore, this article suggests that the adoption of the “cyber-due diligence” concept – based on the classic notion of “due diligence” – would make easier to identify responsible States and attribute them their responsibility for failing to adopt preventive measures, such as monitoring activities./Los ciberataques en tiempos de paz – por parte de grupos de hacktivistas, organizaciones criminales transnacionales o bandas terroristas – aumentan cada año más, suponiendo para los Estados la ciberamenaza más frecuente contra sus infraestructuras informáticas. Ante esta realidad, la comunidad internacional no cuenta todavía con una herramienta jurídica eficaz para atribuir la responsabilidad internacional a aquellos Estados desde cuyo territorio dichos actores no estatales lanzan sus ciberataques contra otros países. Por tanto, en el presente artículo se propone la adopción del concepto de “ciberdiligencia debida”. Partiendo de la noción clásica de “diligencia debida” desarrollada en el Derecho internacional del medioambiente, se sugiere que la “ciberdiligencia debida” permitiría identificar con más facilidad al Estado responsable y atribuirle la responsabilidad por no adoptar las medidas preventivas, como las de monitoreo, necesarias para oponerse a las actividades cibernéticas ilícitas de estos grupos privados.
Topic:
Crime, Non State Actors, Cybersecurity, and Cyberspace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

906. La perspectiva de género en las operaciones militares. Exigencia jurídica y operativa

Author:
Javier Ruiz Arévalo
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
The inclusion of the gender perspective in military operations is now a legal requirement. This exigency is mainly consequence of the doption of the UNSCR 1325. But it is also an operational requirement derived from the need to take into account in decision-making processes the human factor in all its dimensions, to ensure that military actions are adapted to the reality of the scenario in which they take place. This article tries to show that, in the process of integrating this aspect in operations, decision makers tend to only consider the legal aspects of this issue, ignoring the operational benefits that it entails. The official documents of organizations such as the UN or NATO, recognize this duality but, in practice, do not develop this perspective in their operating procedures. All this creates significant problems for those responsible for integrating the gender perspective in operations and requires the introduction of regulatory changes along these lines./Integrar la perspectiva de género en la conducción de las operaciones militares es una exigencia jurídica derivada principalmente de la RCSNU 1325. Pero es también una exigencia operativa derivada de la necesidad de tener en cuenta en los procesos de toma de decisiones el factor humano en toda su extensión, para garantizar que las actuaciones propias se adaptan a la realidad del escenario en el que se desarrollan. A lo largo de este trabajo se evidencia que, en la integración de este aspecto en las operaciones, se tiende a incidir únicamente en los aspectos jurídicos de esta cuestión, pasando por alto los beneficios operativos que conlleva. Los documentos oficiales de organizaciones como la ONU o la OTAN, reconocen esta dualidad pero, en la práctica, no la desarrollan en sus procedimientos operativos, lo que supone un problema para los responsables de integrar la perspectiva de género en las operaciones y hace necesario introducir cambios normativos en esta línea.
Topic:
NATO, Gender Issues, Human Rights, United Nations, Military Affairs, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Global Focus

907. How Do Immigrants Promote Exports?

Author:
Gianluca Orefice, Hillel Rapoport, and Gianluca Santoni
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
How does immigration affect export performance? To answer this question, we propose a unified empirical framework allowing to disentangle various mechanisms put forth in previous literature. These include the role of networks in reducing bilateral transaction costs as well as productivity shifts arising from migration-induced knowledge diffusion and increased workforce diversity. While we find evidence supporting all three channels (at both the intensive and the extensive margins of trade), our framework allows to gauge their relative importance. We then focus on diversity and find stronger results in sectors characterized by more complex production processes and more intense teamwork cooperation. This is consistent with theories linking the distribution of skills to the comparative advantage of nations. The results are robust to using a theoretically grounded IV approach combining three variations on the shift share methodology.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Immigration, Immigrants, Diversity, and Trade
Political Geography:
Global Focus

908. Better Two Eyes than One: A Synthesis Classification of Exchange Rate Regimes

Author:
Cécile Couharde and Carl Grekou
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
This paper proposes a new de facto classification of exchange rate regimes, the synthesis classification. The proposed framework has several advantages over existing de facto classifications. First, it offers a unified framework based on the most divergent classifications, the RR and LYS classifications, leading not only to a broader coverage but also to encompass a broad spectrum of exchange systems. Second, it fits better with the known history of exchange rate regimes developments in the post-Bretton Woods era. Among others, it brings an interesting nuance to the so-called hollowing-out hypothesis by showing that the evolution of de facto regimes —especially in emerging economies since the late 1990s— has essentially involved movement toward more tightly “managed” intermediate regimes and not a shift away from such regimes. As an illustration of the insightfulness of our classification, we empirically revisit the nexus between currency crises and exchange rate regimes. In addition to associate a higher probability of currency crisis to both intermediate and floating regimes, our classification, also displays better statistical performances than other classifications in predicting currency crises.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Exchange Rate Policy, and Currency
Political Geography:
Global Focus

909. The Impact of Common Law on the Volume of Legal Services: An International Study

Author:
Enzo Dia and Jacques Melitz
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
We show that the heavy use of legal services relative to output in the US is not a peculiarity of the country but applies to common law countries in general. It stems largely from better ability to contract and easier access to justice. Yet in close association, common law also opens significantly more room for rentseeking by lawyers than civil law. Thereby the costs could outweigh the benefits. Both real GDP per capita and openness emerge as further factors making room for lawyers.
Topic:
International Cooperation, International Law, Labor Issues, and Law
Political Geography:
Global Focus

910. Love of Variety and Gains from Trade

Author:
Christophe Gouel and Sébastien Jean
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
This paper shows how gains from trade are conditioned by love of variety, defined as the extent to which an additional product variety generates benefits in either final or intermediate consumption. We develop a multi-country, multisector gravity trade model where love of variety is parameterized separately from product substitutability using a generalized CES demand function, and show analytically how gains from trade depend on love of variety through different channels that we identify and interpret. In this context, except for very specific parameterizations, gains from trade differ between a heterogeneous- and a homogeneous-firm model. Counterfactual simulations based on a calibrated version of this model show that, all other things being equal, the assessed gains from trade commonly vary by a proportion of one to three depending on the value of the love-of-variety elasticity, in a way that differs significantly across countries. Trade war simulations also point to the strong sensitivity of the assessed impacts. We conclude that love of variety is a key determinant of the gains from trade, an aspect that has so far been overlooked for the sake of convenience in the modeling framework and due to lack of empirical estimates.
Topic:
International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Trade Wars, and Models
Political Geography:
Global Focus

911. Free Trade Agreements and the Movement of Business People

Author:
Thierry Mayer, Hillel Rapoport, and Camilo Umana Dajud
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
Many of the measures to contain Covid-19 severely reduced business travel. Using provisions to ease the movement of business visitors in trade agreements, we show that removing barriers to the movement of business people promotes trade. To do this, we first document the increasing complexity of Free Trade Agreements. We then develop an algorithm that combines machine learning and text analysis techniques to examine the content of FTAs. We use the algorithm to determine which FTAs include provisions to facilitate the movement of business people and whether those provisions are included in dispute settlement mechanisms. Using these data and accounting for the overall depth of FTAs, we show that provisions facilitating business travel indeed facilitate business travel (but not permanent migration) and, eventually, increase bilateral trade flows.
Topic:
International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Migration, Business, Free Trade, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

912. Poor Substitutes? Counterfactual methods in IO and Trade compared

Author:
Keith Head and Thierry Mayer
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
Constant elasticity of substitution (CES) demand for monopolistically competitive firm-varieties is a standard tool for models in international trade and macroeconomics. Inter-variety substitution in this model follows a simple share proportionality rule. In contrast, the standard toolkit in industrial organization (IO) estimates a demand system in which cross-elasticities depend on similarity in observable attributes. The gain in realism from the IO approach comes at the expense of requiring richer data and greater computational challenges. This paper uses the dataset of Berry et al. 1995, who established the modern IO method, to simulate counterfactual trade policy experiments. We use the CES model as an approximation of the more complex underlying demand system and market structure. Although the CES model omits key elements of the data generating process, the errors are offsetting, leading to reasonably accurate counterfactual predictions. For aggregate outcomes, it turns out that incorporating non-unitary pass-through matters more than fixing over-simplified substitution patterns. We do so by extending the commonly used methods of Exact Hat Algebra and tariff elasticity estimation to take into account oligopoly.
Topic:
Economics, Business, Monopoly, Trade, and Models
Political Geography:
Global Focus

913. Long-Term Macroeconomic Projections of the World Economy

Author:
Lionel Fontagné, Erica Perego, and Gianluca Santoni
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
What will the global economy look like in a generation? The answer depends on the multiple forces driving long-term growth (demography, education, diffusion of technical progress, energy costs, investment and saving behaviour, international capital mobility) and requires a comprehensive framework to conceptualise them. We re-estimate the three-factor (capital, energy, labour) MAcro-econometric model of the Global Economy (MaGE), initially developed by Fouré et al. (2013), with a database covering 170 countries using state-of-the-art methods. We thus establish the long-term structural relationships that drive the dynamics of the World economy. The model projections to 2050 illustrate the expected changes in the World economy and their driving forces. In light of the projected volume of energy consumption, making these projections compatible with climate imperatives calls for increased technology sharing at the international level in order to decouple economic growth from energy use.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
Global Focus

914. Robots and Labor in the Service Sector: Evidence from Nursing Homes

Author:
Karen Eggleston, Yong Suk Lee, and Toshiaki Lizuka
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
In one of the first studies of service sector robotics using establishment-level data, we study the relationship between robots and staffing in Japanese nursing homes. We utilize variation in robot subsidies across prefectures as an instrumental variable to explore the impact of robot adoption on nursing homes’ staffing decisions. We find that robot adoption appears to decrease difficulty in staff retention and to increase employment by augmenting the number of care workers and nurses on flexible employment contracts. Robot adoption is negatively correlated with the monthly wages of regular nurses, consistent with reduced burden of care such as fewer night shifts. Our findings suggest that robots may not be detrimental to labor and may help to remedy challenges posed by rapidly aging populations.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Labor Issues, Services, Innovation, Artificial Intelligence, Robotics, Emerging Technology, and Labor Cost
Political Geography:
Global Focus

915. A quarter century of ‘The Proper Scope of Government’: Theory and Applications

Author:
Oliver Hart
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
A quarter-century ago in a seminal paper, Hart, Shleifer, and Vishny (NBER1996, QJE1997) developed a theory of the ‘Proper Scope of Government.’ Oliver Hart, 2016 Nobel Laureate, reflects on that framework and its place in economics, as well as the inspiration for his more recent work on norms, guiding principles, and contracts as reference points. In discussion with Karen Eggleston, Hart answers questions posed by economists who have built upon Hart, Shleifer and Vishny (1997) and offers insights on how the theory applies to understanding public and private roles in healthcare, education, and other publicly-financed services.
Topic:
Education, Privatization, Political Theory, Governance, Health Care Policy, Social Services, and Public Service
Political Geography:
Global Focus

916. The Final Stretch: Tackling Remaining HEU Challenges

Author:
Miles A. Pomper, Ferenc Dalnoki-Veress, Margarita Kalinina-Pohl, and Artem Lazarev
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
Abstract:
Minimizing civil commerce in highly enriched uranium (HEU) has been a longstanding goal of Global Partnership countries, as HEU represents a highly attractive target for terrorists and proliferators. HEU can be used to create the simplest nuclear explosive device, a so-called gun-type weapon. To make matters worse, because HEU is only weakly radioactive, it is relatively safe to handle and hard to detect. Even HEU waste is less radioactive than one might hope from a security-oriented standpoint. HEU’s primary civilian use is in research reactors, which carry out a range of functions from education and basic scientific research to producing medical isotopes and “doping” silicon for semiconductors. The international community has made significant progress during the last decades in converting such reactors from HEU to LEU fuels.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Nonproliferation, Peace, Commerce, and Uranium
Political Geography:
Global Focus

917. Scientific Risk Assessment of Genetic Weapons Systems

Author:
Richard Pilch, Jill Luster, Miles A. Pomper, and Timothy Shaw
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
Abstract:
For any emerging technology, defense and homeland security analysts strive to understand (1) its dual-use potential, meaning whether the same research and technology applied for peaceful purposes may be diverted to illicit ends, for example to develop a weapon; (2) the State and sub-State actors with access to that dual-use potential, whether peacefully or illicitly directed; and (3) motivational factors and indicators of intent that might suggest these actors would divert the emerging technology to illicit ends. Precision medicine represents one such emerging technical space. Precision medicine is defined as medical care designed to optimize benefit for particular groups, especially based on genetic (or molecular) profiling. A long-speculated but incompletely understood dual-use consideration of precision medicine is the possible development of a genetic weapon system, defined as a weapon system designed to optimize effect on particular groups based on genetic profiling. This Occasional Paper assesses the potential for precision medicine to be diverted to develop a population-specific genetic weapon system, examines relevant state capabilities and motivations to pursue such an effort, and offers policy recommendations to manage the dual-use implications of this emerging biomedical field while still preserving its potential benefit for human welfare.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Military Strategy, Weapons, and Emerging Technology
Political Geography:
Global Focus

918. The Impact of Climate Change on Global and Local Security Governance

Author:
Flavia Eichmann
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:
Climate change presents a major threat not only to sustainable development and global biodiversity but also to peace and security. Security sectors around the world are increasingly faced with the challenges of climate security risks, given their traditional role in disaster risk prevention, management, and response - but also in migration and border management, conflict prevention and peacebuilding.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Environment, and Governance
Political Geography:
Global Focus

919. Impact of COVID-19 on Armed Forces

Author:
Luka Glusac and Ajla Kuduzovic
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:
The unprecedented impact of COVID-19 on societies and their institutions has led to a series of extraordinary responses by governments around the world. COVID-19 has affected all dimensions of the security sector, including armed forces, which have been deployed to assist civilian authorities in fighting the pandemic in a vast majority of countries. The objective of this briefing note is to map the substantive impact of COVID-19 on armed forces from two perspectives
Topic:
Military Strategy, Armed Forces, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

920. Parliamentary Oversight of Military Intelligence

Author:
Grazvydas Jasutis, Teodora Fuior, and Mindia Vashakmadze
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Case Study
Institution:
Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:
The study explores the evolution of military intelligence and its place within the broader framework of parliamentary oversight, identifies the key characteristics of military intelligence, and examines how these challenge efforts to institutionalize effective oversight over the activities of military intelligence agencies. Through a comparative analysis of existing practices in NATO member states with regard to oversight of military intelligence, the study demonstrates that oversight practices vary from state to state, and in general demands further attention. The study is aimed at those responsible for the oversight of military intelligence, including parliamentarians and staffers, members of independent oversight bodies, researchers, and civil society as well as individuals interested in security studies.
Topic:
Intelligence, Military Strategy, Governance, Leadership, Oversight, Civil-Military Relations, and Parliamentarism
Political Geography:
Global Focus