Political Geography: Global Focus / Publication Year: within 5 Years

851. Free Trade Agreements Have Limited Impact (Because Manufactured Goods are a Perfect Market)

Author:: David Henig and Anna Guildea
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: Free Trade Agreements between two or more countries or parties have been the centrepiece of international trade policy since the formation of the World Trade Organisation 25 years ago. Since 1995, no major round of multilateral trade liberalisation has been concluded, but there has been a sharp rise in the number of bilateral trade agreements. While some of these agreements have real consequences for trade in services and some administrative rules for trade, most of them do not because they focus mainly on tariffs on industrial and agricultural goods. Yet the economic gains from these reductions are now extremely limited. In fact, it is now difficult to improve the global market in goods by cutting tariffs.
Topic:: Globalization, World Trade Organization, Global Markets, Trade Liberalization, and Free Trade
Political Geography:: Global Focus

852. Services Trade Needs to be Taken as Seriously as Goods Trade

Author:: Anna Guildea and David Henig
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: Services constitute at least a quarter of total trade. Between 2009 and 2019 global services trade increased by nearly 50%, compared to 18% for goods trade. Yet it is rarely taken as seriously as goods in global trade policy discourse. This is a problem when making the case for trade.
Topic:: Globalization, Services, Trade, and WTO
Political Geography:: Global Focus

853. From SMEs to Unicorns: What Role for Trade, Standards and New Tech?

Author:: Lucian Cernat
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: The global economy has been shaped by important, disruptive technological changes in recent years. Many of these technologies have been instrumental in our global COVID-19 response and will become the new normal. Some of these technologies have been introduced by small firms, which grew spectacularly to become ‘unicorns’, with very high market value and global reach, setting new technological standards in their sectors. The future competitiveness of the EU economy depends on the interplay between firm size, technological progress and ability to use the opportunities offered by global markets. This paper looks at the role of trade policy in influencing this complex interplay and offers a few tentative conclusions and recommendations.
Topic:: Science and Technology, European Union, Economy, Trade, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe and Global Focus

854. The Future of EU Leadership in the Car Industry: Still Global

Author:: David Henig and Hosuk Lee-Makiyama
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: Automotive is Europe’s key export industry, an important contributor to the EU economy, from balance of payments to employment, and a manufacturing base to global and European brands; Balancing the EU’s climate ambitions (and its implied economic transformation) with a successful EU car industry is therefore crucially important. The car industry is at the forefront of new initiatives to tackle the climate emergency, shaped by these new regulations its products and infrastructure will be radically different in just a few years; Proposals within EU frameworks such as Green Deal, Fit for 55, and Next Generation EU are about reducing emissions and reshaping industry. Yet, the policy mix also leans towards increased regulatory costs and loss of competitiveness that can only be partially offset by climate subsidies and import substitution; This cumulation of measures also carries significant risk of retaliation from our key export markets for the car industry. In particular, attempts to apply green regulation extraterritorially are seen as provocative by third countries and unlikely to be accepted without response; Since the EU is the world’s largest exporter of passenger cars, it has most to lose if the global economy regresses into protected markets. Open global supply chains also enable EU manufacturing to retain competitiveness, and has also helped to keep the component and services portion of the industry going despite a relative decline of demand in motor vehicles in the EU; Consumer support for Green Deal initiatives will be lost if there are no affordable and sustainable alternatives for personal mobility – which also requires open markets. Thus, cars play a significant role in sustaining both EU macroeconomic stability and support for the Green Deal; The Green Deal and an open economy must not become a binary choice for Europe. The automotive industry is today global, digitised and electrified by default. The EU cannot mass-produce locally unless it can also compete globally – which entails facilitating industry transition, minimising retaliatory risks and understanding the biggest transition the industry is facing since Henry Ford’s invention of the assembly line.
Topic:: Globalization, European Union, WTO, Green Deal, and Automotive Industry
Political Geography:: Europe and Global Focus

855. Why Do Couples and Singles Save During Retirement?

Author:: Mariacristina De Nardi, Eric French, John Bailey Jones, and Rory McGee
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP), Western University
Abstract:: While the savings of retired singles tend to fall with age, those of retired couples tend to rise. We estimate a rich model of retired singles and couples with bequest motives and uncertain longevity and medical expenses. Our estimates imply that while medical expenses are an important driver of the savings of middle-income singles, bequest motives matter for couples and high-income singles, and generate transfers to non-spousal heirs whenever a household member dies. The interaction of medical expenses and bequest motives is a crucial determinant of savings for all retirees. Hence, to understand savings, it is important to model household structure, medical expenses, and bequest motives.
Topic:: Retirement, Savings, and Expenses
Political Geography:: Global Focus

856. Wages, Skills, and Skill-Biased Technical Change: The Canonical Model Revisited

Author:: Audra J. Bowlus, Lance Lochner, Chris Robinson, and Edna Suleymanoglu
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP), Western University
Abstract:: The canonical supply–demand model of the wage returns to skill has been extremely influential; however, it has faced several important challenges. Several studies show that the standard approach sometimes produces theoretically wrong-signed elasticities of substitution, yields counterintuitive paths for skill-biased technical change (SBTC), and does not account for the observed deviations in college premia for younger vs. older workers. This paper shows that these failings can be explained by mis-measurement of relative skill prices and supplies (based on standard demographic composition-adjustments) and by inadequate ad hoc functional form assumptions about the path for SBTC. Improved estimates of skill prices and supplies that account for variation in skill across cohorts within narrowly defined groups help explain the observed deviation in the college premium for younger vs. older workers, even with perfect substitutability across age. Re-estimating the model with these prices and supplies produces a good fit with better out-of-sample prediction and robustly yields positive elasticities of substitution between high and low skill workers. The estimates suggest greater substitutability across skill and a more modest role for SBTC. We implement two new approaches to modelling SBTC. First, we study the extent to which recessions induce jumps or trend-adjustments in skill bias and find evidence that both features are important (but differ across recessions). Second, we link SBTC to direct measures of information technology investment expenditures and show that these measures explain the evolution of skill bias quite well. Together, these approaches suggest that the ad hoc assumptions for SBTC previously employed in the literature are too crude to fit the data well, leading to the incorrect conclusion that SBTC slowed during the early-1990s and under-estimates of the elasticity of substitution between high and low skill workers.
Topic:: Economics, Human Capital, Supply, Skills, and Wages
Political Geography:: Global Focus

857. Gender discrimination in Football. Building a Toolbox Toward Gender Equity in the Beautiful Game

Author:: Rachel Davidson Raycraft, Rebecca Robinson, and Jolena Zabel
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Dejusticia
Abstract:: As the most popular sport worldwide, football (or soccer) may be the poster child for lingering gender disparities in sport. The importance of gender and gender-based categorizations cling to the world of sport like no other realm of culture or society in the twenty-first century. While presented as natural, logical, and innate, the differential treatment of men and women and boys and girls in the world of sports is largely the product of over a century of global socialization intent on preserving sport as a male-dominated pastime, lifestyle and avenue of opportunity. This report describes the various manifestations of gender-based discrimination that shape the game of football today, the role that the Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) plays in perpetuating this discrimination and the existing avenues for remedy (or Lack thereof). The report concludes with key takeaways from the fight for gender equality to date with an eye toward building a more just world of sport in the years to come.
Topic:: Gender Issues, Sports, Inequality, Discrimination, Football, and Soccer
Political Geography:: Global Focus

858. Heterogeneous consumer preferences for product quality and uncertainty

Author:: Wolfgang Maennig and Steffen Mueller
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg
Abstract:: We provide evidence for heterogeneous consumer preferences for product quality and game outcome uncertainty (GOU) in Major League Baseball. Using attendance data from 2013 to 2019, we explore func-tional data clustering techniques to detect common patterns in predictive margins of team-specific win-ning probability. As a central result, we identify five groups of teams with similar GOU effects. However, only a few teams’ fans show GOU preferences that resemble the typical hump-shape that is postulated by the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis; the largest cluster is comprised of teams with fans whose at-tendance behavior is relatively insensitive to differences in GOU.
Topic:: Economics, Data, Consumer Behavior, and Uncertainty
Political Geography:: Global Focus

859. Consumer and employer discrimination in professional sports markets – New evidence from Major League Baseball

Author:: Wolfgang Maennig and Steffen Mueller
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg
Abstract:: We investigate the relationship between consumer discrimination, racial matching strategies, and employer discrimination in Major League Baseball (MLB) from 1985 to 2016. To this end, we assess the extent to which both fan attendance and team performance respond to changes in teams’ and their local market areas’ racial compositions. We innovate by using a significantly enhanced data basis with individual player data that we derive from combining web scraping and using facial recognition techniques to identify player race and using County-level Census data instead of Metropolitan Statistical Area data. We find that fans in both MLB Leagues developed a taste for racial diversity in the late 1980s; since the 2000s, discrimination starts to increase again. However, this discrimination is not fully rationalizing the performance gap across athletes of different race and ethnicity; employer discrimination is not primarily driven by fans’ racial preferences.
Topic:: Economics, Race, Employment, Sports, Ethnicity, Discrimination, Consumer Behavior, Facial Recognition, and Baseball
Political Geography:: Global Focus

860. Baku Dialogues

Author:: Fariz Ismailzade
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: “Baku Dialogues” is a series of events featuring leading world personalities who will address subjects of current international interest by presenting their views and participating in discussion of these subjects with interested Azerbaijani and international figures. These presentations and discussions, along with other submissions, will be recorded in the “Baku Dialogues”, ADA University’s new journal of record for academic and policy research.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Politics, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Global Focus

861. What Do Energy Sanctions Say About the World?

Author:: Aurelie Bros
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: Statecraft is often understood as the art of conducting state affairs in order to exert a direct influence on other actors in the international system in order to get them to do what they would not do otherwise. To achieve their goals, policymakers are able to employ a variety of levers such as diplomacy, propaganda, military statecraft, and economic statecraft. According to Elizabeth Ellis of the Inter‑ Disciplinary Ethics Applied Centre of the University of Leeds, the latter category encompasses all economic means—including recourse to economic sanctions— that might be used by international actors with the intention of (i) preventing objectionable policy or behavior, (ii) sending a message, or (iii) punishing unlawful policy or behavior. Princeton University’s David A. Baldwin wrote in 1985 that economic sanctions are divided into two main categories: those with a punitive function and those aimed at encouraging or rewarding. He also noted that they impact trade (e.g. embargo, quotas, and (un)favorable tariff discriminations) as well as capital (e.g. aid suspension, controls on imports or exports, and (dis)advantageous taxation), and that they can be used wisely or unwisely, justly or unjustly, depending on the situation at hand. Although economic sanctions have a long history, with origins in Antiquity, they are unequally distributed over time. For example, their use greatly increased during the post‑World War II era, especially in the energy sector. This increasing use of energy sanctions has been particularly noticeable since the early 1970s. Over the past several decades, they have essentially become a way for energy producers and consumers to exert disapproval over one another and to weaken those considered to be morally responsible for objectionable policies (not always related to energy issues). Energy sanctions, therefore, are often paired with non‑energy economic sanctions targeting a large array of goods and services. For example, an oil embargo can take place in tandem with nuclear‑related sanctions aimed at stopping military use of civilian nuclear power technology—as in the Iranian case. Energy sanctions are always deeply rooted in a wider political and economic environment, reflecting the global order of their time. This essay will focus mainly on the bipolar international system led by the United States and the Soviet Union between 1947 and 1991, which was followed by a post‑Cold War international system in which the United States assumed the role of the world’s leading power, supported by Western‑dominated organizations. Nevertheless, this unipolar, rules‑based order is now under pressure, perhaps even duress—some argue it is coming to an end.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Energy Policy, Sanctions, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Global Focus

862. Oil Pipelines in the Silk Road Region Coordination and Collaboration Amidst Competition and Confrontation

Author:: Rodrigo Labardini
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: For centuries, numerous projects have wanted to connect the Caspian Sea to its main markets in the East (China) and the West (Europe). All vie to link energy sources (oil and gas) and goods (commodities and manufactured products) with consumers. Contemporary pipelines and transport corridors are presented as cost‑efficient, faster, and profitable, and thus sound economical alternatives to traditional hauling via tankers. Reviewing the political map, continental pathways between East and West must traverse two regional “choke‑points,” each with three alternative routes. First, the “Eastern Gap” at the Caspian Sea: Russia, Iran, and the Caspian Sea. The Caspian Sea region also includes Azerbaijan, of course, since it is the only state (together with Russia and Iran) located on its western bank, with routing options via the Caucasus to reach the Black Sea and Anatolia on to Europe. Second, the “Western Gap” at the Black Sea: Russia (again), the Black Sea, and Anatolia. The South Caucasus’ unique geographical location between East and West as well as between Russia and Iran place it at a strategic crossroads of key geopolitical interest. Furthermore, the Caucasus‑Caspian Sea‑Central Asia region (CCCA) today—this corresponds more or less to what the editors of Baku Dialogues have called the “Silk Road region”—is merging ever closer with Eurasian and Middle East politics. The politicization of energy and transport—with pipeline politics often dealing with opposing economic and partisan interests—as well as sanctions against Russia and Iran, also raises the importance of sanctions‑free routes. Compounding these issues is the fact that several countries in the region are landlocked, dependent on transit states, and vulnerable to the latter’s maneuvers.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Oil, Natural Resources, and Silk Road
Political Geography:: Global Focus

863. NATO 2030 and the out-of-area conundrum

Author:: Gorana Grgic
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: NATO Defense College
Abstract:: Over the recent years, the Indo-Pacific has grad- uated from being a geostrategic term reserved for a relatively niche community of analysts to an almost ubiquitous, albeit still fuzzy concept that in generous interpretation could capture as much as five continents. The fact that policymakers around the world are paying greater attention to the region is no doubt a reflection of the impact security and econom- ic developments in this realm have on the rest of the world, and which are by and large a direct consequence, or a by-product of, China’s growing power and asser- tiveness. Thus, a number of NATO Allies have been adjusting their approaches to the region, its key players, and potential Allies and partners. This shift in strategic attention has coincided with a growing foreign policy consensus in the United States and allied states towards ending the “forever wars” in the Greater Middle East, and ceasing the so-called era of out-of-area (OOA) missions by NATO. The Alli- ance has been deemed to have strayed from its orig- inal mission of deterring and defending against Rus- sian aggression in Eastern Europe, which became even more apparent following Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea and intervention in Ukraine in 2014. Yet, as more NATO member states look towards re- sponding to challenges emanating from the Indo-Pa- cific, the prospects of future OOA operations in this region are becoming likelier than at any point in the post-Cold War era. This in turn leads to a slew of ques- tions around the conceptualisation and execution of potential OOA operations in the Indo-Pacific. At pres- ent, the institutional leadership is adamant: “(T)here is no way that NATO will move into the South China Sea”,1 while some of the major and middle powers in the Alliance are far from foreclosing that option. This Policy Brief first sketches out the strategic vision of those member states that have articulated Indo-Pa- cific strategies, after which it turns to the concept of OOA driven by new strategic imperatives. It concludes by proposing a framework of assessment for the pros- pects of coordination and cooperation among NATO Allies in the Indo-Pacific, and offers some preliminary thoughts on the near- to medium-run OOA activities.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Global Focus

864. Women, Voice and Power: How transformative feminist leadership is challenging inequalities and the root causes of extreme vulnerability

Author:: Emily Brown
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: The evidence can no longer be ignored: when women and feminist activists are able to use their collective power to challenge inequalities, they are having a transformational impact. From women’s rights organizations and movements breaking down harmful social norms, to political leaders advancing highly progressive policies, there is a growing body of evidence from feminist organizing across the world that when decisions are made more equally and inclusively, and are rooted in locally-owned, intersectional feminist movements and political agendas, they have immediate and long-term human development benefits for all.
Topic:: Gender Issues, Women, Leadership, Feminism, and Civil Rights
Political Geography:: Global Focus

865. Centring Gender and Power in Evaluation and Research: Sharing experiences from Oxfam GB’s quantitative impact evaluations

Author:: Sarah Barakat, Alexia Pretari, and Jaynie Vonk
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Bringing a feminist intent to research, monitoring and evaluation practices leads to defining these as tools to contribute to transforming the lives of women, girls and non-binary people, and to bringing about social justice. This has meant putting gender and power at the centre of our practice, which has in turn shaped the technical choices made specifically in quantitative impact evaluations. This paper focuses on describing how these technical choices, as well as ethical considerations, are changed by this feminist intent. The paper also presents the lessons learned and questions raised along the way, which may be useful for MEAL and research practitioners, as well as programme managers. How can we bring intersectionality to the fore? What does it mean to go beyond the gender binary? How can this work be transformative?
Topic:: Women, Feminism, LGBT+, and Gender
Political Geography:: Global Focus

866. A Crucial Link: Using Intellectual Property to Inform Global Supply Chain Policy

Author:: Philip C. Rogers
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
Abstract:: The COVID-19 pandemic, coupled with trade tensions and technological competition between the United States and China, have severely disrupted global supply chains. As businesses and policymakers grapple with “building back better” in a tense trade environment, they face the dilemma of balancing the traditional benefits of global production with the security demands of new geopolitical realities. This policy brief, part of a series on great power competition, highlights the productive role that intellectual property (IP) can play in navigating supply chain disruptions resulting from great power competition in a post-pandemic world. Rather than reinforcing the vicious cycle of techno-nationalist confrontation, it is possible for businesses and policymakers to promote virtuous cycles of competition with a more robust focus on intellectual property. Specifically, businesses and policymakers can look to IP licensing and allocation of rights to play a key role in tariff mitigation strategies and supply chain restructuring. At the same time, competitive pressures can lead to enhanced IP regimes in China and other economies, which argues for a more nuanced discussion of supply chains beyond physical relocation and economic decoupling.
Topic:: National Security, Intellectual Property/Copyright, Innovation, Strategic Competition, COVID-19, Supply Chains, and Geoeconomics
Political Geography:: China, Global Focus, and United States of America

867. Why Summit Optics May Help De-escalate Public Appetite for Conflict

Author:: Max Plithides
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
Abstract:: As competition between democracies and autocratic adversaries such as North Korea, Iran, Russia, and China intensifies, democratic publics may increasingly pressure their politicians to take a more confrontational stance. The implications are dangerous. Public pressure for confrontation during the Cold War caused numerous foreign policy fiascos.1 Public pressure also at times undermined the broad political unity necessary for concluding diplomatic agreements— even between democratic allies.2 How then, as the world enters a new era of great power competition, can public pressure and anger be defused and foreign policy put on a more rational footing? This policy brief, part of a series on great power competition, argues that bilateral summits with autocratic leaders may have a key role to play in shifting the public’s collective emotional ethos. It analyzes results from a large-scale survey experiment, designed around the historic 2018 Singapore Summit, which represented the first-ever meeting of the leaders of North Korea and the United States and was preceded by months of saber rattling.3 According to conventional logic the Summit was worthless: It produced a joint communiqué with “no concrete specifics”4 and had no effect on President Trump’s approval rating.5 Yet evidence shows that joint photographs from the Summit reduced bellicosity in American public opinion towards North Korea by allowing President Trump to act as a visual empathetic mediator. The Singapore Summit thus broadly evinces the potential value of bilateral summits to reduce tensions with autocratic adversaries.
Topic:: Democracy, Citizenship, Strategic Competition, and Autocracy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

868. Negotiating Consent: Lessons in defending the right to decide

Author:: Scott A. Sellwood
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Indigenous peoples have long asserted and defended their rights and customary land tenures against the unlawful enclosure of their territories. Yet, despite normative recognition of the right to free, prior, and informed consent (FPIC)—and public commitments by major multinational companies, international financial institutions, and global banks to apply the standard of consent—power imbalances continue to undermine the quality of agreements being reached. Negotiating Consent distills lessons from Oxfam’s work defending community consent in Peru. Drawing on research published by Oxfam partners in Peru—Cooperacción, Organización Nacional de Mujeres Indígenas (ONAMIAP) and Pueblos Indígenas Amazónicas Unidas en Defensa de Sus Territorios (PUINAMUDT), which have published research examining the politics and practices of the implementation of this law—it seeks to contribute to collective thinking around ways to improve the implementation of FPIC processes, processes that are manifestly political. With land inequality worsening, land grabbing continuing unabated, and basic environmental and social protections being rolled back, upholding the standard of consent is more important than ever. It is time companies, investors, and others look beyond paper commitments and take the steps necessary to ensure quality agreements are reached with Indigenous peoples and are maintained across the life of projects.
Topic:: Security, Land Rights, Indigenous, and Land
Political Geography:: Global Focus

869. A People’s Vaccine For Refugees: Ensuring access to COVID-19 vaccines for refugees and other displaced people

Author:: Charlotte Greener
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: As we continue to fight against the COVID-19 pandemic, it is vital that no one is excluded from vaccine coverage. This briefing note addresses some of the challenges faced by displaced people – including refugees, asylum seekers, IDPs, stateless people, and others in displacement contexts – in accessing COVID-19 vaccinations. It identifies a range of administrative and logistical barriers, the issue of lack of information and vaccine hesitancy, and gender-specific barriers to access for these populations. The briefing note provides recommendations to governments, UN agencies, and other actors to help address these challenges and ensure vaccine access for all displaced people.
Topic:: Refugees, Displacement, Humanitarian Intervention, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

870. The Ignored Pandemic: The Dual Crises of Gender-Based Violence and COVID-19

Author:: Rowan Harvey
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Gender Based Violence (GBV) is a global pandemic existing in all social groups across the globe, yet it has largely been ignored in the COVID-19 response and recovery plans. It is evident that the COVID-19 pandemic has intensified GBV, including domestic violence and intimate partner violence amongst other forms of violations, but the investments in GBV prevention and response are dramatically inadequate, with just 0.0002% of the overall COVID-19 response funding opportunities going into it. Barriers to achieving gender justice, such as harmful social norms, continue to exist, but progress made since the start of the 16 Days of Activism Against Gender-Based Violence Campaign show that there are solutions, and feminist activism has been a driving force for progress on eliminating gender-based violence.
Topic:: Gender Based Violence, Violence, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Gender
Political Geography:: Global Focus

871. Food for Thought: Investing in a sustainable food system

Author:: Marta Piazza
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: The focus on profit maximization at the expense of workers, farmers, and women have helped companies reap huge profit margins in the short-term, but as COVID-19 has revealed, it has come at the cost of rights violations. Such costs are no longer considered an acceptable business risk. As human rights gains prominence in investor-company engagement, this briefing note provides information to investors about the risks of ignoring human rights impacts, evidence about the rights violations that persist in the food sector despite company action and charts a way for investors to build a resilient food system given their outsized influence.
Topic:: Economics, Business, Profit, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

872. Transforming the Systems that Contribute to Fragility and Humanitarian Crises: Programming across the triple nexus

Author:: Vittorio Infante
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Conflicts and shocks linked to climate change are more frequent and intense, leading to poverty and inequality, exacerbating these phenomena and people’s vulnerability. In this context, humanitarian relief, development programmes and peacebuilding are not serial processes; they are all needed at the same time to tackle the systemic inequalities that trap people in poverty and expose them to risk. The triple nexus, or programming across humanitarian-development-peace pillars, thus means creating synergies and common goals across short-term emergency response programmes and longer-term social change processes in development, as well as enhancing opportunities for peace so that individuals can enjoy the full spectrum of human rights. This briefing paper aims to identify the tensions and dilemmas that Oxfam faces when programming across the nexus and sets out new policy to address these dilemmas, building upon Oxfam’s 2019 discussion paper on the triple nexus.
Topic:: Development, Inequality, Humanitarian Intervention, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Global Focus

873. Not in This Together: How supermarkets became pandemic winners while women workers are losing out

Author:: Anouk Franck and Art Prapha
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Inequality is worsening and exploitation of women is endemic across the global economy. While inequality of power and value was already deeply unfair before the pandemic, it has now reached shocking proportions. COVID-19 has cost global workers $3.7 trillion in lost income, and women and young workers have been hardest hit, as they are often found in the most insecure and lowest-paid jobs. Few places reveal this trend more clearly than supermarket supply chains. In stark contrast to the escalating human misery brought by the pandemic, the supermarket sector has largely been the standout winner of the crisis. Senior executives, the largest institutional investors, and mostly wealthy shareholders of global supermarkets continue to be rewarded with business-as-usual high compensation and dividends. In fact, during the pandemic, publicly listed supermarkets distributed 98% of net profits to their shareholders via dividends and share buybacks. Meanwhile, workers and producers, especially women, across the globe – the people we call ‘essential’ or ‘frontline’ workers – have seen their incomes stagnate or even fall, while their rights continue to be violated.
Topic:: Inequality, Pandemic, COVID-19, Labor Rights, and Gender
Political Geography:: Global Focus

874. Shining a Spotlight: A critical assessment of food and beverage companies’ delivery of sustainability commitments

Author:: Emma Fawcett and Suzanne Zweben
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: From 2013 to 2016, Oxfam's Behind the Brands campaign called on the world’s 10 biggest food and beverage companies to adopt stronger social and environmental sourcing policies and spurred significant commitments on women’s empowerment, land rights and climate change. Now, as the coronavirus pandemic worsens inequality and food insecurity around the world, we assess whether the companies have taken meaningful steps to implement the commitments they made in response to the campaign. In this report we find that while companies have taken action at the global level, progress stalls in translating those approaches to countries and through supply chains. There are positive examples and innovations happening in key sourcing countries. But key blockages must be addressed – including by providing the right incentives, disclosing suppliers and supporting suppliers to take up the agenda – to create change at scale.
Topic:: Environment, Food Security, Land Rights, Supply Chains, and Gender
Political Geography:: Global Focus

875. The Inequality Virus: Bringing together a world torn apart by coronavirus through a fair, just and sustainable economy

Author:: Oxfam Publishing
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: The coronavirus pandemic has the potential to lead to an increase in inequality in almost every country at once, the first time this has happened since records began. The virus has exposed, fed off and increased existing inequalities of wealth, gender and race. Over two million people have died, and hundreds of millions of people are being forced into poverty while many of the richest – individuals and corporations – are thriving. Billionaire fortunes returned to their pre-pandemic highs in just nine months, while recovery for the world’s poorest people could take over a decade. The crisis has exposed our collective frailty and the inability of our deeply unequal economy to work for all. Yet it has also shown us the vital importance of government action to protect our health and livelihoods. Transformative policies that seemed unthinkable before the crisis have suddenly been shown to be possible. There can be no return to where we were before. Instead, citizens and governments must act on the urgency to create a more equal and sustainable world.
Topic:: Governance, Inequality, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

876. United Nations Special Political Missions and Protection: A Principled Approach for Research and Policymaking

Author:: Daniel Forti
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: Independent reviews are a relatively new but increasingly popular tool. Since the practice was established in 2017, there have been nineteen independent reviews of UN peace operations. These reviews have been intended to rigorously assess the strategic orientation of peace operations while providing more political credibility than UN-led review processes. But given the diverse processes and incentives that shape them, these exercises are both analytically complex and highly political. As independent reviews have gained prominence over the past five years, reflecting on the experiences of previous reviews is necessary for improving their quality, impact, and sustainability moving forward. This paper provides a comparative analysis of the nineteen independent reviews of UN peace operations conducted between 2017 and 2021 by considering emerging trends, best practices, and lessons observed. It begins by juxtaposing the emergence of independent reviews with an increasingly fractured geopolitical landscape for UN peace operations and introducing these reviews’ distinguishing features and objectives. It then analyzes how independent reviews have unfolded in practice across seven different dimensions. The paper concludes by presenting findings about the practice and future of independent reviews and developing criteria to distinguish between UN-led and independent reviews. It also offers recommendations to the UN system, member states, and independent review teams to improve the practice: The UN system should codify independent reviews within formal UN policy, consolidate best practices, clarify roles and expectations of UN staff seconded to review teams, prioritize diversity in the composition of review teams, improve reporting on independent reviews, and establish a dedicated funding stream for independent reviews. Independent review teams should emphasize their transparency and independence, build internal and external constituencies, systematize their use of diverse research methods and approaches, and embrace the support provided by “red teams.” Member states should treat independent reviews as exceptional instead of standard, debrief team leaders following the submission of an independent review, request a formal briefing on strategic reviews and assessments, strengthen reporting requirements on the implementation of review recommendations, and provide ample time for conducting independent reviews.
Topic:: Politics, United Nations, Peacekeeping, and UN Security Council
Political Geography:: Global Focus

877. From Female Engagement Teams to Engagement Platoons: The Evolution of Gendered Community Engagement in UN Peace Operations

Author:: Gretchen Baldwin
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: The military components of UN peacekeeping operations have used engagement teams (ETs) to conduct community engagement activities since at least 2015. While ETs were initially ad hoc initiatives, the UN has recently begun to institutionalize gendered community engagement, including through an ongoing shift from ETs to engagement platoons (EPs). Yet despite a general recognition that ETs have been beneficial, they have not been consistently understood or defined, making it difficult to assess how they have been used and to what effect. This policy paper fills this research gap by presenting data on the prior activities of ETs and the experiences of those deployed to them. It aims to help decision makers align policies and guidance on ETs and EPs with evidence of what has and has not worked and to establish a baseline against which EPs can be measured over time. The paper draws on extensive interviews with members of ETs and policymakers, as well as a questionnaire distributed to military peacekeepers in six peacekeeping missions. Overall, this research found broad support for the ongoing rollout of mixed-gender EPs. It concludes, however, that to effectively implement ETs and EPs, leaders in missions and in national militaries must address the institutional barriers that preclude women’s full participation in peace operations and perpetuate gendered stereotypes. Toward this end, it offers several recommendations to troop-contributing countries and the UN: Provide training on the skills required for community engagement to men and women across all levels of the military; Shift the burden for gendered community engagement off of women; Improve internal reporting and analysis by ETs and EPs; Coordinate between ETs and EPs and other mission components; Build the capacity of missions to engage with communities; and Avoid reinforcing gendered assumptions and stereotypes through the activities of ETs and EPs.
Topic:: Security, Gender Issues, United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Women
Political Geography:: Global Focus

878. Strategic Communications in UN Peace Operations: From an Afterthought to an Operational Necessity

Author:: Jake Sherman and Albert Trithart
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: United Nations peace operations are increasingly recognizing strategic communications as essential to implementing their mandates and managing expectations about what they can and cannot achieve. This has led them to ramp up their communications capabilities and shift their approach away from the traditional top-down, one-way model of communication. Nonetheless, missions continue to face obstacles in realizing this approach. This issue brief analyzes the current strategic communications practice in UN peacekeeping operations and special political missions. It explores why strategic communications are increasingly important in the contexts where missions are deployed and the external and internal challenges missions face. It also identifies best practices peace operations might adopt or adapt from other parts of the UN system and related fields. The paper concludes that, while missions may need additional resources for strategic communications, what they most need is a cultural shift. Mission leaders need to see strategic communications as a core mission capacity. Strategic communications are not an operational support function, a downstream activity, or an output of a planning cycle; they are an integral part of political strategies and mandate delivery. They are not just a leadership function but a “whole-of-mission” responsibility. Strategic communications must therefore be treated as central to every phase of a UN peace operation. If missions are to succeed, strategic communications professionals should be part of their decision making, from initial planning through transition and exit.
Topic:: United Nations, Communications, Peacekeeping, Civilians, and Protection
Political Geography:: Global Focus

879. The Road to Seoul: Previewing the 2021 UN Peacekeeping Ministerial

Author:: Daniel Forti
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: The UN peacekeeping ministerial process has emerged as one of the flagship vehicles through which the UN can mobilize concrete pledges of uniformed personnel, enablers, financial resources, and capacity building for peacekeeping operations. The 2021 UN peacekeeping ministerial in Seoul—the sixth ministerial since 2014—presents a valuable opportunity for member states to make pledges, focusing on four substantive areas: (1) peacebuilding and sustaining peace; (2) partnerships for capacity building and training; (3) performance and accountability; and (4) protection of civilians and safety and security. The conference also has two cross-cutting themes: technology and medical capacity building. This issue brief offers a preview of the 2021 peacekeeping ministerial in Seoul. It discusses the motivation for and evolution of the ministerial format and its value to UN peacekeeping. It also highlights the issues discussed during the four preparatory conferences in the run-up to the conference and briefly summarizes topics raised in both the UN’s official pledging guide and independent white papers commissioned by the Republic of Korea.
Topic:: United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Protection
Political Geography:: Global Focus

880. The Global Quest for Sustainability: The Role of Green Infrastructure in a Post-Pandemic World

Author:: Carlo Secchi and Alessandro Gili
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: In the aftermath of the pandemic, global demand for infrastructure is booming. National plans around the world show that infrastructure is likely to provide the backbone for a resurgence in public expenditure, and to support growth in economies badly hit by the pandemic. As all the biggest powers and blocs (the EU, the US, China, and Japan) have recently announced their plans for climate or carbon neutrality, the room and need for green and sustainable infrastucture are greatly expanding. Decarbonisation and digitalisation will be underpinning this latest investment drive in infrastructure, with sustainability and ESG principles at its core. However, infrastructure expenditure will not come without risk: after the pandemic, the world will be left with the highest levels of public and private debt since World War II, and the sustainability of key investment decisions must be carefully evaluated. How to foster quality and sustainable infrastructure investment? What role for the private sector? What future for sustainable mobility? What kind of policies will countries adopt to reach carbon neutrality?
Topic:: Infrastructure, Economy, Sustainability, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

881. Can climate change be tackled without ditching economic growth?

Author:: Guntram Wolff, Simone Tagliapietra, and Klaas Lenaerts
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Higher levels of economic activity tend to go hand-in-hand with additional energy use and consumption of natural resources. As fossil fuels still account for 80 percent of the global energy mix, energy consumption remains closely related to greenhouse gas emissions and hence to climate forcing. This paper explores whether decarbonisation and economic growth are compatible or whether the world economy needs to grow less to be able to reduce greenhouse gas emissions fast enough to reach net zero in 2050. The literature provides profoundly different answers to this question, with scholars positioning along a spectrum that extends from the most optimist version of ‘green growth’ theories to sceptical ‘degrowth’ theories. While globally, CO2 emissions per unit of GDP are declining, the decoupling rate from 1995 to 2018 was only -1.8 percent annually. To achieve net zero by 2050, the rate would have to accelerate to -8.7 percent, assuming population and GDP growth projections as given, or by a factor of almost five. To keep GDP growth and population at their projections and thus reject the proposition of de-growth, decoupling would have to accelerate massively. Two avenues are crucial: reducing the energy intensity of production and/or the emissions intensity of energy. The huge fall in the price of renewable energy provides hope that decoupling can accelerate. Decoupling rates have accelerated in the last decade and decoupling is substantially faster in the European Union. In the EU, we estimate that decoupling only has to accelerate by a factor of 2.5. We do not think degrowth propositions advanced in the literature will be pursued and therefore focus on the main challenges that must be tackled to achieve decoupling. Unprecedented efforts are required to achieve green growth. But hoping for humanity to sacrifice growth appears unrealistic.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economic Growth, Fossil Fuels, Carbon Emissions, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

882. A new integrated-value assessment method for corporate investment

Author:: Dirk Schoenmaker
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Companies are under pressure to change their business models and become more sustainable. Corporate governance codes across Europe have introduced the term ‘long-term value creation’ to capture companies’ social responsibility. However, the concept of long-term value creation lacks tools that would enable its application. Companies still steer their investments based on outdated valuation methods, which are entirely based on financial value. The concept of integrated value would give substance to long-term value creation. Integrated value involves managing and balancing the financial, social and ecological value dimensions of companies. Impact measurement aims to capture social and ecological value alongside financial value. The first impact measurements of companies are already taking place using cost-based methods. International reporting standards have been developed to harmonise the measurement and reporting of sustainability information. But there is no guidance on how to use the impact information. This policy contribution sets out a proposal on the use of impact information to steer investment decisions. We introduce decision rules based on integrated value. These decision rules allow for the prioritisation of specific types of value, in line with a company’s purpose. A practical example shows how this new decision model can help companies improve their valuation profiles. Society expects companies to include social and environmental value in their strategies and business models in order to retain (or regain) their social license to operate. Further investment in deepening measurement and decision-making methods based on integrated value can speed up the process. The willingness of corporate executives to use these new methods will be decisive for success.
Topic:: Business, Investment, and Green Transition
Political Geography:: Global Focus

883. Do robots dream of paying taxes?

Author:: Rebecca Christie
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Robot taxes embody the more futuristic challenges of managing automation and legacy workers. As machines and artificial intelligence take on more roles that used to be performed by humans, policymakers and technologists are assessing the costs this transition imposes and what parts of society will pay them. A robot tax on companies that replace employees with automated systems is easy to dismiss in its most simplistic forms but should be considered in the context of managing the next industrial revolution. A robot tax is a political construction, a way to shape democratic debate around technological shifts and societal needs. It is a construct of the public debate, and as such can contribute to broader discussions about how to make sure profitable companies pay their way in the economy. The political capital of ‘replacement robot’ imagery may be useful in designing a tax framework for legacy firms making the most of new economic opportunities. It is best to consider a ‘robot tax’ as a rallying concept for targeted levies. These policies should target finance and other data-driven sectors as well as traditional manufacturing and mining automation. Policymakers should consider overall employment, specific job losses and how to assess firms that make layoffs in specific areas of their workforces. This last will be especially difficult in cases where total headcount rises, even though some generations of employees may be put out of work. Tax policy can compensate for distortions due to shifts from human-driven to capital-intensive production in specific sectors. On the revenue side, there should be appropriate expectations of what a tech tax can raise and over what period, on the scale of targeted retirement assistance or retraining programmes with measurable outcomes, not long-running cash cows. Smaller and more innovative firms should not be asked to contribute disproportionately, particularly in legacy markets that are hard to break into, and they should be eligible for waivers and exemptions. Policymakers should stress that asking producers to help pay the costs of societal change is not immediately equivalent to stifling innovation, and they should make every effort to design policies in ways that protect against this type of side effect. Finally, any new tax on employers needs to fit with broader discussions of the corporate fair share, and with taxing the most profitable parts of the economy instead of relying on workers and consumers to foot society’s bills.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Labor Issues, Business, and Digital Transition
Political Geography:: Global Focus

884. Does money growth tell us anything about inflation?

Author:: Francesco Papadia and Leonardo Cadamuro
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Economists and central bankers no longer consider monetary aggregates relevant for inflation forecasts. We explain this neglect by advancing and testing the hypothesis that monetary aggregates are only relevant for inflation in unsettled monetary and inflationary conditions. When inflation is basically stable around the central bank target (1.9 percent), as it has been in most of the last two decades, there is no apparent relationship between monetary aggregates and inflation. This is not surprising: there is not much to be explained about a constant.
Topic:: Economy, Economic Growth, Inflation, and Banking
Political Geography:: Global Focus

885. Towards efficient information sharing in network markets

Author:: Georgios Petropoulous, Bertin Martens, Marshall Van Alstyne, and Geoffrey Parker
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Digital platforms facilitate interactions between consumers and merchants that allow collection of profiling information, which drives innovation and welfare. Private incentives, however, lead to information asymmetries resulting in market failures both on-platform, among merchants, and off-platform, among competing platforms. This paper develops two product-differentiation models to study private and social incentives to share information within and between platforms. We show that there is scope for ex-ante regulation of mandatory data sharing that improves social welfare better than competing interventions, such as barring entry, break-up, forced divestiture or limiting recommendation steering. These alternate proposals do not make efficient use of information. We argue that the location of data access matters and develop a regulatory framework that introduces a new data right for platform users, the in-situ data right, which is associated with positive welfare gains. By construction, this right enables effective sharing of information together with its context, without reducing the value created by network effects. It also enables regulatory oversight but limits data privacy leakages. We discuss crucial elements of its implementation in order to achieve innovation-friendly and competitive digital markets.
Topic:: Markets, Science and Technology, Data, and Information
Political Geography:: Global Focus

886. Biometric technologies at work: a proposed use-based taxonomy

Author:: Mario Mariniello and Mia Hoffmann
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Biometric technologies have in principle the potential to significantly improve worker productivity, security and safety. However, they are also a source of new risks, including exposure to potential personal data abuse or the psychological distress caused by permanent monitoring. The European Union lacks a coherent regulatory framework on the mitigation of risks arising from the use of biometric technologies in the workplace. We propose a taxonomy to underpin the use of artificial intelligence-powered biometric technologies in the workplace. Technologies can be classified into four broad categories based on their main function: (1) security, (2) recruitment, (3) monitoring, (4) safety and well-being. We identify the benefits and risks linked to each category. To be more effective, EU regulation of artificial intelligence (AI) in the workplace should integrate more detail on technology use. It should also address the current scarcity of granular data by sourcing information from users of AI technologies, not only providers. There is an untapped potential for technology to address workplace health hazards. Policymakers should design incentive mechanisms to encourage adoption of the technologies with the greatest potential to benefit workers. Artificial intelligence users, in particular bigger companies, should be required to assess the effect of AI adoption on work processes, with the active participation of their workforces.
Topic:: Science and Technology, European Union, Artificial Intelligence, and Biometrics
Political Geography:: Europe and Global Focus

887. mRNA vaccines: a lucky shot?

Author:: Reinhilde Veugelers
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: MRNA technology has proved in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic its breakthrough value as a basis for vaccines. There has been rapid development of highly safe, effective and robust mRNA vaccines, and these can be delivered at large scale. Yet the technology is the result of a long process of accumulation of innovation and capacity. It was a bumpy process that could easily have turned out differently. The mRNA vaccines story suggests that a vibrant vaccine ecosystem cannot be taken for granted in terms of delivering the breakthroughs needed for global pandemic preparedness and response. This paper examines the background of mRNA technology development to understand better how public vaccine research and development policy can be improved to generate the full global social benefits from breakthrough novel vaccine technologies, like mRNA.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Research, Vaccine, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

888. Market power and artificial intelligence work on online labour markets

Author:: Néstor Duch-Brown, Estrella Gomez-Herrera, Frank Mueller-Langer, and Songül Tolan
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The views are those of the authors and should not be regarded as stating an official position of the European Commission. Frank Mueller-Langer gratefully acknowledges financial support from a research grant of the University of the Bundeswehr Munich. We investigate three alternative but complementary indicators of market power on one of the largest online labour markets (OLMs) in Europe: (1) the elasticity of labour demand, (2) the elasticity of labour supply, and (3) the concentration of market shares. We explore how these indicators relate to an exogenous change in platform policy. In the middle of the observation period, the platform made it mandatory for employers to signal the rates they were willing to pay, as given by the level of experience required to perform a project: entry, intermediate or expert level. We find a positive labour supply elasticity ranging between 0.06 and 0.15, which is higher for expert-level projects. We also find that the labour demand elasticity increased while the labour supply elasticity decreased after the policy change. Based on this, we argue that market-designing platform providers can influence the labour demand and supply elasticities on OLMs with the terms and conditions they set for the platform. We also explore the demand for and supply of AI-related labour on the OLM under study. We provide evidence of a significantly higher demand for AI-related labour (ranging from +1.4 percent to +4.1 percent) and a significantly lower supply of AI-related labour (ranging from -6.8 percent to -1.6 percent) than for other types of labour. We also find that workers on AI projects receive 3.0 percent to 3.2 percent higher wages than workers on non-AI projects.
Topic:: Markets, Science and Technology, Internet, Artificial Intelligence, and Labor Market
Political Geography:: Global Focus

889. Timely measurement of real effective exchange rates

Author:: Zsolt Darvas
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: We demonstrate that short-run real exchange effective rate changes are dominated by nominal effective exchange rate changes, while inflation rates are sticky and contribute little to short-run real exchange rate changes. These observations allow a rather accurate real-time approximation of the real effective exchange rate using actual nominal exchange rate data and forecast inflation data. We measure the approximation error and find it is minor for most countries and sizeable only for a few countries experiencing high and volatile inflation. For a set of countries, the revision in our estimates using real-time data is slightly lower than the revision in World Bank estimates and much lower than International Monetary Fund estimates. By considering two widely studied economic issues, unit root testing in real exchange rates and nominal exchange rate forecasting with the real exchange rate, we find that using a version of real exchange rates based on approximated monthly price level data instead of actual price level data hardly changes the conclusions on unit roots and forecasting. By combining alternative data sources for exchange rates and consumer prices, we calculate up-to-date monthly real effective exchange rates for 177 countries and the euro area. Our dataset, which is frequently updated, includes more than twice as many observations as the second most comprehensive dataset.
Topic:: Economy, Inflation, and Exchange Rates
Political Geography:: Global Focus

890. Climate-related Security Risks in the 2020 Updated Nationally Determined Contributions

Author:: Elise Remling and Amar Causevic
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:: Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) are the central instrument for states to communicate their contribution to the 2016 Paris Agreement on climate change and reflect their wider approach to climate mitigation and adaptation. This SIPRI Insights paper analyses how the 2020 updated NDCs (16 submissions as of October 2020) discuss climate-related security risks and compares them with 2015. It finds that climate change is mainly seen as a risk to socio-economic development and human security and almost never as a risk to societal stability or the functioning of the state. The assessment of risks in NDCs largely focuses on direct climate impacts. This suggests that countries are currently not considering the risks from indirect climate impacts, including those that cross national borders, or the unintended adverse consequences of adaptation or mitigation responses. Going forward, countries will need to take account of the multifaceted and transboundary character of climate risks in their NDCs in order to meet global expectations and goals.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Development, Risk, and Peace
Political Geography:: Global Focus

891. Filtering and Site Blocking: Necessary Reforms for the Digital Marketplace

Author:: Steven Tepp
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: Business models and technology have changed dramatically since the 1990s; nowhere more so than online. Those changes, alongside some key judicial decisions, have distorted the operation of the US copyright law provision specifically designed to address online copyright infringement. Today, even a platform that knows that 80 percent of what it hosts are unlicensed copyrighted works, it can be shielded from accountability by the safe harbors in the Copyright Act. Copyright owners are left to send millions of takedown requests with little actual effect on piracy. This, along with other factors, led the US Copyright Office to conclude that the cooperative environment the law was meant to create has not and will not be realized without amending the law. And while dozens of other countries have successfully adopted measures to address online infringement from beyond their borders, the United States has not acted to implement similar procedures.
Topic:: Intellectual Property/Copyright, Law, Reform, and Criminal Justice
Political Geography:: Global Focus

892. The Value of Cellular Technology

Author:: Urška Petrovčič and Kirti Gupta
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: Cellular technologies, such as those embodied in the third generation (3G), fourth generation (4G), and fifth generation (5G) of cellular standards, have provided the foundation for a thriving mobile ecosystem that has benefited consumers and businesses all over the world. In the past 20 years, the number of mobile connections has grown almost 10-fold, reaching an ever-growing percentage of the global population. In 2017, the number of mobile connections surpassed the number of people on the planet. In 2019, mobile technologies and services added $4.8 trillion of economic value to the global economy, and the mobile ecosystem employed (directly and indirectly) 30 million people. Although cellular technology has already transformed all facets of our society, the deployment of 5G will bring even broader and more radical changes. By connecting everything and everywhere, 5G will help us realize the full potential of connectivity and usher in the era of smart transportation, smart cities, smart factories, and smart homes. The new products and services enabled by 5G will change all aspects of our daily life, such as health care, energy, agriculture, automotive, manufacturing, and retail, among others. This will not only benefit consumers and businesses, but society as a whole. Cellular technologies are central to this revolution. Without advances in the cellular space, none of the economic and societal benefits we see in the connected world would be possible. Therefore, it is important to understand how cellular technologies are developed and deployed, and what impact they have on the economy and on society more broadly. It is also important to understand why fairly compensating cellular innovators is essential to maintain a sustainable system where new technologies can be developed and brought to consumers.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Intellectual Property/Copyright, Law, Criminal Justice, and 5G
Political Geography:: Global Focus

893. How IP Rights Keep Markets Free

Author:: Jonathan M. Barnett
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: It is elementary that secure protection of property rights is a necessary precondition for efficient markets that drive economic growth. Yet this principle is not always recognized in the case of markets for intangible goods. Rather, intellectual property rights are often characterized as a monopoly franchise that stands at odds with free-market competition. Following this view, IP rights at best provide a justifiable means to incentivize innovation but are prone to abuse by incumbents seeking to block entrants. This standard narrative overlooks an inconvenient fact. As I show in a new book, Innovators, Firms, and Markets: The Organizational Logic of Intellectual Property, incumbents and other large firms in US technology markets have regularly advocated against stronger forms of patent protection and, in certain industries, have resisted patent protection entirely. This lobbying strategy poses a puzzle: Why would dominant firms resist the opportunity to operate under the umbrella of a legal monopoly? This policy memo analyzes the counterintuitive IP policy preferences of large technology firms and, in resolving this apparent anomaly, shows that patents tend to enhance competitive intensity by enabling idea-rich but capital-poor innovators to challenge idea-poor but capital-rich incumbents. Contrary to widespread assumptions, IP rights are far closer to the familiar property rights that support tangible goods markets rather than the monopoly grant to which they are often (and misleadingly) analogized. These insights, which are based on over a century’s worth of US innovation history, raise significant concerns about the IP-skeptical trajectory that policymakers have pursued since the mid-2000s.
Topic:: Markets, Intellectual Property/Copyright, Law, and Criminal Justice
Political Geography:: Global Focus

894. Countering Global Kleptocracy: A New US Strategy for Fighting Authoritarian Corruption

Author:: Nate Sibley and Ben Judah
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: In the most comprehensive kleptocracy policy study yet published, Nate Sibley and Ben Judah examine the pervasive threat to democracy, prosperity and security posed by globalized corruption and offer 70 recommendations for US policymakers.
Topic:: Corruption, Authoritarianism, Criminal Justice, and Kleptocracy
Political Geography:: North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

895. Implementing Decision-Centric Warfare: Elevating Command and Control to Gain an Optionality Advantage

Author:: Bryan Clark, Dan Patt, and Timothy A. Walton
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: Since the Cold War ended, the US Department of Defense (DoD) has developed doctrine and capabilities predominantly for the most stressing campaigns it could face against opponents such as the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Russia, and North Korea. These worst-case scenarios are intended to ensure US forces can address “lesser-included” cases as well. This approach, however, favors concepts and systems designed for large-scale, high-intensity military conflict, and intelligent US adversaries are unlikely to present US forces with confrontations where DoD could leverage its strengths in missions such as power projection or precision strike. America’s rivals have evolved approaches during the past decade to circumvent US military strengths, such as PRC and Russian gray-zone or hybrid operations, that obtain objectives at lower cost and escalation—albeit over longer timeframes—than traditional military combat. DoD should therefore revise its planning to raise the priority of new scenarios that stress the US military in different ways than theater-wide high-intensity combat such as through protraction, varying levels of escalation and scale, and the use of proxy and paramilitary forces. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) concept of System Destruction Warfare and the Russian military’s New Generation Warfare are representative of the new approaches being employed against the United States and its allies. Although they are very different in their theory of victory and methodology, both concepts share a focus on information and decision-making as the main battlegrounds for future conflict. They direct attacks on an opponent’s battle network electronically and physically to degrade its ability to obtain accurate information while introducing false information that erodes the opponent’s ability to orient. Simultaneously, military and paramilitary forces would present dilemmas to the opponent by isolating or attacking targets in a manner that neutralized their combat potential and controlled the escalation of a conflict.
Topic:: Defense Policy, National Security, Science and Technology, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

896. The post-Covid city: the ongoing spatial and technological reconfiguration in China and the world

Author:: Philip Yang, Carlo Ratti, Kamila Aben Athar, and Yung Ho Chang
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
Abstract:: Considering the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic on our everyday life, the XXV China Analysis Group Meeting focused on the organization of large cities and the reordering of urban agglomerations. According to the participants, the maintenance of this model and the rearrangement, focused on urban sprawl, are valid alternatives, each with its own set of advantages and disadvantages. Another issue discussed was the impact of technologies on how cities are shaped in the 21st century, to which participants responded by mentioning the role of artificial intelligence and big data in making the architecture behave like a living organism. However, they also warned about the importance of developing a balance between the natural and the artificial world. Finally, the participants said that for achieving carbon neutrality by 2050, it is necessary for each city to adopt specific policies that suit its own reality, because there is not a universal formula.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Science and Technology, Cities, Carbon Emissions, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Global Focus

897. Artificial Intelligence for Social Good: Avoiding the Solutionist Trap

Author:: Andreas Tsamados
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: Artificial Intelligence (AI) is slowly moving past the public bewilderment phase that is common to most revolutionary technologies. In the past decade, AI has often been portrayed as either a sentient technology with an apocalyptic destiny, or as a silver bullet for most if not all conceivable problems ranging from the climate emergency to global crime prevention. This article contributes to a more recent and realistic assessment that is beginning to see the light: AI is a powerful technology that can help us address a wide range of well-defined problems given proper design, development, integration and monitoring.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Innovation, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:: Global Focus

898. The Terrorist Threat Forecast in 2021

Author:: Liu Chunlin and Rohan Gunaratna
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: The pandemic year 2021 is likely to witness an overall decline in global terrorism. While the threat grew in conflict zones, it diminished off-the-battlefields. However, threat groups worldwide are expanding in cyber space during the pandemic. From Indonesia to Pakistan, Muslim majority countries, Arabization and Islamization of Muslim communities during the pandemic is disrupting national cohesion. To prevent, counter and respond to the recent developments of key terrorist organizations, governmental and non-governmental partners should understand the threat. The intelligence services, law enforcement authorities and military forces should move from counter terrorism cooperation to collaboration and partnership. Working with community, academic and private sector partners, governments should build the higher strategic and ground level operational and tactical capabilities.
Topic:: Terrorism, Cybersecurity, Al Qaeda, Islamic State, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, Indonesia, and Global Focus

899. AI and International Stability: Risks and Confidence-Building Measures

Author:: Michael Horowitz and Paul Scharre
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: Militaries around the world believe that the integration of machine learning methods throughout their forces could improve their effectiveness. From algorithms to aid in recruiting and promotion, to those designed for surveillance and early warning, to those used directly on the battlefield, applications of artificial intelligence (AI) could shape the future character of warfare. These uses could also generate significant risks for international stability. These risks relate to broad facets of AI that could shape warfare, limits to machine learning methods that could increase the risks of inadvertent conflict, and specific mission areas, such as nuclear operations, where the use of AI could be dangerous. To reduce these risks and promote international stability, we explore the potential use of confidence-building measures (CBMs), constructed around the shared interests that all countries have in preventing inadvertent war. Though not a panacea, CBMs could create standards for information-sharing and notifications about AI-enabled systems that make inadvertent conflict less likely.
Topic:: Science and Technology, International Affairs, Military Affairs, Political stability, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:: Global Focus

900. Principles for the Combat Employment of Weapon Systems with Autonomous Functionalities

Author:: Robert O. Work
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: An international debate over lethal autonomous weapon systems (LAWS) has been under way for nearly a decade.1 In 2012, the Department of Defense (DoD) issued formal policy guidance on weapon systems with autonomous functionalities,2 and nations have come together since 2014 to discuss LAWS through the United Nations Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons (CCW). The discussions at the CCW have been hampered by the lack of an agreed-upon definition for LAWS.3 However, states party to the CCW agreed in 2019 that “human responsibility” for the decisions over the use of weapon systems and the use of force “must be retained.”4 Accordingly, discussions now tend to focus on the type and degree of human involvement required to ensure compliance with international humanitarian law and satisfy ethical concerns.5 Several scholars argue these discussions should focus on “developing objective, commonly held, and function-based understandings of autonomy in the military context” (emphasis added).6 The premise of this paper is that the best way to achieve such an understanding is to develop, debate, and agree upon some commonly accepted principles for the employment of weapon systems with autonomous functionalities in armed conflict.7 This is where the legal, ethical, and moral questions about autonomy in warfare are most acute and deserve the most attention. This paper offers a starting point for these discussions. The seven principles proposed in this paper are intended to complement and build on existing DoD guidance, including DoD Directive (DoDD) 3000.09, Autonomy in Weapon Systems, and DoD’s Artificial Intelligence (AI) Principles.8 They are also consistent with the 11 guiding principles adopted in 2019 by the CCW in its “Meeting of the High Contracting Parties to the Convention on Prohibitions or Restrictions on the Use of Certain Conventional Weapons Which May Be Deemed to Be Excessively Injurious or to Have Indiscriminate Effects.”9 These seven new principles concentrate on the responsible use of autonomous functionalities in armed conflict in ways that preserve human judgment and responsibility over the use of force and help minimize the probability of loss of control of the system or unintended engagements, especially against noncombatants. This paper is organized into four sections. The first details the history of U.S. weapon systems with autonomous functionalities. It is intended to give the reader a notion of how these weapons have historically been used, why autonomous functionalities are so useful, and why the DoD retains the right to use them. The second section explains why weapons with autonomous functionalities are now being improved through the addition of AI, an important development that aims to make the weapons more discriminate in the application of force. The third section explains why the DoD should consider publishing a new set of principles for the combat employment of weapon systems with autonomous functionalities. The final section outlines seven proposed principles for consideration.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Military Affairs, Weapons, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS