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691. Global Terrorism Index 2022

Author:
Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:
This is the ninth edition of the Global Terrorism Index (GTI). The report provides a comprehensive summary of the key global trends and patterns in terrorism over the last decade. The calculation of the GTI score takes into account not only deaths, but also incidents, hostages, and injuries from terrorism, weighted over a five-year period. The GTI report is produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP) using data from TerrorismTracker and other sources. TerrorismTracker provides event records on terrorist attacks since 1 January 2007. The dataset contains over 60,500 terrorist incidents for the period 2007 to 2021.
Topic:
Terrorism, Ideology, COVID-19, and Ecology
Political Geography:
North Africa, Morocco, Sahel, Global Focus, and Sub-Saharan Africa

692. Global Peace Index 2022

Author:
Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:
This is the 16th edition of the Global Peace Index (GPI), which ranks 163 independent states and territories according to their level of peacefulness. Produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), the GPI is the world’s leading measure of global peacefulness. This report presents the most comprehensive data-driven analysis to-date on trends in peace, its economic value, and how to develop peaceful societies. The GPI covers 163 countries comprising 99.7 per cent of the world’s population, using 23 qualitative and quantitative indicators from highly respected sources, and measures the state of peace across three domains: the level of societal Safety and Security; the extent of Ongoing Domestic and International Conflict; and the degree of Militarisation. In addition to discussing the findings from the 2022 GPI, the report includes an analysis of the military conflict in Ukraine. It covers likely increases in military spending, new and emerging uses of technology in the war, its impact on food prices and global shipping routes. The report also contains a deeper analysis on violent demonstrations around the world.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Political Violence, Economics, Terrorism, Military Spending, Conflict, Peace, and Instability
Political Geography:
Global Focus

693. Ecological Threat Report 2022

Author:
Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:
This is the third edition of the Ecological Threat Report (ETR), which analyses ecological threats in 228 independent states and territories. Produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP), the report covers over 3,638 sub-national administrative districts, or 99.99 per cent of the world's population, assessing threats relating to food risk, water risk, rapid population growth and natural disasters. Many ecological threats exist independently of climate change. However, climate change will have an amplifying effect, causing further ecological degradation. The research takes a multi-faceted, multidimensional approach by analysing risk at the national, administrative district and city level, while also assessing these entities by ecological threats, societal resilience and levels of peace. Additionally, the research provides projections to 2050. To assist the international community in prioritising its focus, IEP has identified the countries, administrative districts and cities most at risk
Topic:
Natural Disasters, Water, Food, Risk, Peace, Population Growth, Resilience, and Ecology
Political Geography:
Global Focus

694. Book Talk. Architectures of Violence by Kate Ferguson

Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
The Harriman Institute
Abstract:
Paramilitary or irregular units have been involved in practically every case of identity-based mass violence in the modern world, but detailed analysis of these dynamics is rare. Through exploring the case of former Yugoslavia, Kate Ferguson exposes the relationships between paramilitaries, state commands, local communities, and organised crime present in modern mass atrocities, from Rwanda and Darfur to Syria and Myanmar. Visible paramilitary participation masks the continued dominance of the state in violent crises. Political elites benefit from using unconventional forces to fulfil ambitions that violate international law—and international policy responses are hindered when responsibility for violence is ambiguous. Ferguson’s inquiry into these overlooked dynamics of mass violence unveils substantial loopholes in current atrocity prevention architecture.
Topic:
Crime, Governance, Conflict, Violence, and Paramilitary
Political Geography:
Global Focus

696. Book Panel: Rethinking the Gulag: Identities, Sources, Legacies

Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
The Harriman Institute
Abstract:
Please join us for the launch of the new volume Rethinking the Gulag: Identities, Sources, Legacies (Indiana University Press, March 2022). Editors Alan Barenberg and Emily Johnson will be joined by contributors Gavin Slade (Nazarbayev University), Mikhail Nakonechnyi (University of Helsinki), and Sarah Young (University College London), discussant Dan Healey (University of Oxford), and moderator Mark Lipovetsky (Columbia University).
Topic:
Crime, Prisons/Penal Systems, and Abuse
Political Geography:
Global Focus

697. Does Deplatforming Work? Unintended consequences of banning far-right content creators

Author:
Danny Klinenberg
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
Abstract:
Social media has become an outlet for extremists to fundraise and organize on, potentially leading to deadly consequences. While governments deliberate on how to regulate this challenge, some social media companies have removed creators of offensive content—deplatforming. I estimate the effects of deplatforming on revenue and viewership, using variation in the timing of removals across two video-streaming companies- YouTube, and its far-right competitor, Bitchute. I construct a novel dataset including Bitcoin wallets linking YouTube and Bitchute accounts for 79 far-right content creators, including propagandists for violent domestic extremist movements. Being deplatformed on YouTube results in a 30% increase in weekly Bitcoin revenue and a 50% increase in viewership on Bitchute. This increase in Bitchute activity accounts for about 65% of the estimated foregone revenue and 5.9% of viewership lost from YouTube, implying a negative net effect of deplatforming.
Topic:
Media, Social Media, Far Right, Censorship, and Digital Space
Political Geography:
Global Focus

698. We’ll always have Paris: How to adapt multilateral climate cooperation to new realities

Author:
Anthony Dworkin and Mats Engström
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Ahead of COP27, multilateral climate negotiations are stalling due to geopolitical tensions, distrust between the global south and high-income countries, and concerns about energy supplies. It is necessary to move faster in implementing emissions-reduction measures, but the need for consensus in the global climate process makes this difficult. At the same time, drivers of action on climate change are evolving, with countries now competing for economic advantage in new green technologies. The EU and its partners are right to combine negotiations under the UN climate convention with initiatives that bring together like-minded and ambitious countries to accelerate industrial transformation. To be effective and legitimate, these efforts should remain rooted in the multilateral system and incorporate substantial climate funding for emerging markets and lower-income countries. EU institutions and member states should also work to strengthen the capacity of multilateral institutions to support efforts on climate change.
Topic:
Climate Change, International Cooperation, European Union, Multilateralism, and Paris Agreement
Political Geography:
Global Focus

699. Managing for Motivation as Public Performance Improvement Strategy in Education & Far Beyond

Author:
Dan Honig
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
People management has an important role to play in improving public agency performance. This paper argues that a ‘Route Y’ managerial approach focused on supporting the empowered exercise of employee judgment will in many circumstances prove superior to conventional reform approaches steeped in ‘Route X’ monitoring and incentives. Returns to Route Y are greater when employees are or can become more “mission motivated” – that is, aligned with the goals of the agency in the absence of monitoring and extrinsic incentives. Returns to Route Y are also greater when monitoring is incomplete or otherwise likely to unproductively distort effort, thus lowering the returns to using performance-linked rewards and penalties. I argue that education systems are one (but far from the only) setting where Route Y is a lever worth focusing on in efforts to improve public performance in the developed and developing world alike.
Topic:
Development, Education, Public Policy, Performance Evaluation, and Project Management
Political Geography:
Global Focus

700. The Role of Storage in Commodity Markets: Indirect Inference Based on Grains Data

Author:
Christophe Gouel and Nicolas Legrand
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
Understanding commodity prices dynamics is of crucial importance for assessing the persistence of cost-push costs or for countries dependent on commodity exports. Unfortunately, despite decades of research, the workhorse theoretical model in the field, the rational expectations storage model, is yet to be empirically validated. This paper provides the first full empirical test of the storage model. We first build a new storage model featuring a supply response, long-run demand and cost trends, and four structural shocks. We then develop a flexible empirical approach which relies on the indirect inference method and exploits the joint dynamics of prices and quantities unlike previous estimations which only use price information. The information contained in quantities is essential to relax restrictive identifying assumptions and empirically assess the overall consistency of the model's new features. Finally, we carry out a structural estimation on the aggregate index of the world most important staple food products: maize, rice, soybeans, and wheat. The results show that our extended storage model is consistent with most of the moments in the data, including the high price autocorrelation of which up to 42% can be explained by the transfer of inventories over time. They also show that, although for these commodities supply shocks are the main drivers of market dynamics, over the past 60 years all price spikes have been associated with large positive demand shocks.
Topic:
Agriculture, International Trade and Finance, Commodities, and Price
Political Geography:
Global Focus