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171. Phase-based Tactical Analysis of Online Operations

Author:
Ben Nimmo and Eric Hutchins
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The online threatscape in 2023 is characterized by an unprecedented variety of actors, types of operation, and threat response teams. Threat actors range from intelligence agencies and troll farms to child-abuse networks. Abuses range from hacking to scams, election interference to harassment. Responders include platform trust-and-safety teams, government agencies, open-source researchers, and others. As yet, these responding entities lack a shared model to analyze, describe, compare, and disrupt the tactics of malicious online operations. Yet the nature of online activity—assuming the targets are human—is such that there are significant commonalities between these abuse types: widely different actors may follow the same chain of steps. By conducting a phase-based analysis of different violations, it is possible to isolate the links in the chain within a unified model, where breaking any single link can disrupt at least part of the operation, and breaking many links—“completing the kill chain”—can disrupt it comprehensively. Using this model will allow investigators to analyze individual operations and identify the earliest moments at which they can be detected and disrupted. It will also enable them to compare multiple operations across a far wider range of threats than has been possible so far, to identify common patterns and weaknesses in the operation. Finally, it will allow different investigative teams across industry, civil society, and government to share and compare their insights into operations and threat actors according to a common taxonomy, giving each a better understanding of each threat and a better chance of detecting and disrupting it.
Topic:
Security, Internet, and Non-Traditional Threats
Political Geography:
Global Focus

172. International Relations in Search of an Antidote

Author:
Ali L. Karaosmanoğlu
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
This essay is based on the author’s long-time observation of the International Relations discipline and the repeated crises it has experienced. The piece identifies ‘event-drivenness’ as the structural reason behind these crises, in other words, the course of the discipline naturally follows global IR events and, depending on how transformative these events are, when responding to them, is more likely to fall into an existential crisis—with the most recent one being potentially fatal. By discussing in detail the a) science-statecraft relationship; b) scholar-practitioner disconnect; c) distortion of theories by scholars and practitioners; d) paradoxical relationship between rationality and irrationality; and e) theory-practice disconnect, the essay seeks to operationalize these crisisgenerated processes when responding to major events. In order to show these crisis generation processes in detail, it uses the theories of political realism and, to a lesser degree, classical liberalism, as case reflections. As a possible solution to the reciprocal condescension between scholarship (theory-making) and statecraft (practice), the essay proposes a “Clausewitzian” modus vivendi that aims at creating a culture of synthesis between the presumed producers and consumers of IR knowledge.
Topic:
International Relations, Academia, and Knowledge Production
Political Geography:
Global Focus

173. The Monroe Doctrine as the Will and Idea of the United States of America

Author:
Boris Martynov
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:
East View Information Services
Abstract:
On February 24, 2022, international relations entered a whole new stage of development affecting, albeit to varying degrees, practically all states, with no end in sight. On September 7, 2022, speaking at the Eastern Economic Forum, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the world was experiencing “fundamental transformations.” Such transformations generally require several years to be completed. By the middle of the third decade of the 21st century, two highly important signs of a new situation have become absolutely clear: a crisis of the old institutions of global governance and the new rising and developing centers of power. At the same time, the opinion that the new is just the “well-forgotten old” is confirmed. This is especially true of the US and its policies.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, History, Governance, Law, Psychology, Identity, and Monroe Doctrine
Political Geography:
Russia, Global Focus, and United States of America

174. Advancing Equity: Mentorship in Peace and Security

Author:
Kimberly Gillies
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Women of Color Advancing Peace, Security and Conflict Transformation (WCAPS)
Abstract:
In this report, we synthesize findings from original interviews and extensive research into what makes an effective DEI strategy, the impact of mentorship —particularly on people of color—and how to elevate equity-focused mentoring within the fields of peace, security, and foreign policy. We close with a recommendation to CRAVE mentoring opportunities by founding, joining, or supporting initiatives that: create opportunity for cross-identity contact; establish responsibility structures; cultivate social accountability for involvement; are voluntary; and engage participants in their evolution.
Topic:
Security, Women, Diversity, Peace, Inclusion, Equity, People of Color (POC), and Mentorship
Political Geography:
Global Focus

175. Local Voices, Global Action: Transnational Organizing in Apparel Supply Chains

Author:
Judy Gearhart
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Accountability Research Center (ARC), American University
Abstract:
This working paper discusses transnational organizing in apparel supply chains. It learns from labor rights advocates in the global South who are building social movements, advocating for national reforms, and promoting new forms of accountability in the apparel industry. In particular, the paper examines how the Bangladesh Center for Worker Solidarity (BCWS) and Cambodia’s Center for Alliance of Labor and Human Rights (CENTRAL) have each played a critical role in advancing new agreements and monitoring their implementation. They have increasingly influenced and become leaders in the Clean Clothes Campaign Network. Based on multiple interviews with CENTRAL’s Tola Moeun and BCWS’s Kalpona Akter, the paper traces how they have worked with international allies to expose flaws in supply chain monitoring in the apparel industry. It discusses how they worked with independent trade unions to build grassroots campaigns that often preceded or inspired international campaigns. At the same time as Moeun and Akter came under threat for their national advocacy, they engaged international allies and became experts on trade policy and global supply chains. They are now not only leading proponents of enforceable, multiparty agreements between multinational corporations (MNCs) and independent trade unions, but also advocates for more effective mandatory human rights due diligence laws (MHRDD). Balancing this international advocacy with organizing for national policy reforms is a strategy made all the more necessary by the context of shrinking civic space in Bangladesh and Cambodia. Many companies are seeking to strengthen their human rights due diligence in supplier countries and to engage stakeholders in that process. At this time, the perspectives and experience of BCWS and CENTRAL help identify what is needed to advance more worker-centered approaches. Three sets of lessons emerge about what is needed to sustain transnational supply chain advocacy movements. Firstly, movement-building and trust are vital ingredients in effective supply chain advocacy. Secondly, it is important for human rights due diligence processes to take into account risks to worker rights. Thirdly, strengthening worker voice in global supply chains requires more effective scrutiny and regulation of MNCs.
Topic:
Reform, Accountability, Industry, Labor Rights, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
Global Focus

176. The Postcolonial Vortex

Author:
Photis Lysandrou and Yvonne Lysandrou
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:
The subject of this paper is the contemporary postcolonial condition. Its central argument is that this condition is one of perpetual entrapment in circular motion as any progression registered by postcolonial countries by participating in the global capitalist system as independent states is continually offset by a backward-pulling regression arising out of their subordinate position in that system. This entrapment in 'proregression', to abbreviate the progression-regression nexus, is not in itself a new experience for postcolonial countries. What is new is the primary mechanism that perpetuates proregression: where in the previous eras of colonialism and neo-colonialism that primary mechanism rested on the force of authority, in the current postcolonial era it rests on the force of gravity. It is testimony to the strength of this force that even those emerging capitalist countries that have never been the subject of external control in the colonial era are now also caught in the predicament of proregression. However, the fact that the postcolonial countries have previous experience of proregression makes their present experience going forward even more acute. It is as if their history is caught in an endless series of overlapping cycles, as each mode of progression on a higher plane of development is countered by a mode of regression on an equivalent plane of development. In short, it is as if their whole history is caught in a vortex.
Topic:
Post Colonialism, Political Theory, and Capitalism
Political Geography:
Global Focus

177. Rethinking Monopoly as a Power Relation: The Shift from Market to Intellectual Monopoly

Author:
Cecilia Rikap
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:
The critical literature on monopolies, from monopoly capital to recent contributions, focuses on the organization that concentrates either market power, capital or property rights. I complement this literature by conceptualizing monopolies as a power relation, which enables me to integrate different ways in which the term is used, from capitalists’ monopoly over the means of production to intellectual monopolization. As I explain here, some firms have developed greater capacities to systematically monopolize intangibles that are essential for organizing labour beyond their owned assets and for controlling demand. Coupled with institutional, political and technological changes, larger absorptive and management capacities to produce and capture knowledge and information resulted in firms’ technological differentiation. The systematic winners of the innovation race hold persistent intellectual monopolies while other firms become subordinate due to their lack of technical autonomy. From this perspective, (intellectual) monopoly power is essential for understanding the distribution of value in capitalism.
Topic:
Political Economy, Labor Issues, Capitalism, Monopoly, Capital, Power Relations, and Value Capture
Political Geography:
Global Focus

178. Sellers’ Inflation, Profits, and Conflict: Why Can Large Firms Hike Prices in an Emergency?

Author:
Isabella Weber and Evan Wasner
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
The dominant view of inflation holds that it is macroeconomic in origin and must always be tackled with macroeconomic tightening. In contrast, we argue that the US COVID-19 inflation is predominantly a sellers’ inflation that derives from microeconomic origins, namely the ability of firms with market power to hike prices. Such firms are price makers, but they only engage in price hikes if they expect their competitors to do the same. This requires an implicit agreement which can be coordinated by sector-wide cost shocks and supply bottlenecks. We review the long-standing literature on price-setting in concentrated markets and survey earnings calls and compile firm-level data to derive a three-stage heuristic of the inflationary process: (1) Rising prices in systemically significant upstream sectors due to commodity market dynamics or bottlenecks create windfall profits and provide an impulse for further price hikes. (2) To protect profit margins from rising costs, downstream sectors propagate, or in cases of temporary monopolies due to bottlenecks, amplify price pressures. (3) Labor responds by trying to fend off real wage declines in the conflict stage. We argue that such sellers’ inflation generates a general price rise which may be transitory, but can also lead to self-sustaining inflationary spirals under certain conditions. Policy should aim to contain price hikes at the impulse stage to prevent inflation from the onset.
Topic:
Political Economy, Inflation, Profit, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

179. Divergence in Non-Tariff Measures and the Quality of Traded Products

Author:
Doan Thi Thanh Ha, Kunhyui Kim, and Mahdi Ghodsi
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Non-tariff measures (NTMs) constitute a grey area where trade policy meets public policy goals. NTMs comprise a diverse set of regulatory policy measures, including testing and certification, rather than traditional international trade policy measures such as tariffs or tariff-rate quotas. Regulatory NTMs protect plants, animals, humans, and consumers from imported harmful products containing diseases; regulate the use of hazardous substances in production; ensure conformity with common standards; and protect the environment. Trade literature has focused on the impact of NTMs on trade flows, whereas few studies address the potential welfare-improving effects of these measures. This paper fills this gap by examining the relationship between NTM applications and the quality of traded products. Two questions are addressed. First, do more or additional burdens of NTMs in the foreign market incur a higher quality of exported products? Second, is the quality impact of NTMs in different sectors different between food and other manufacturing goods? We adopt a recently developed indicator to capture the additional requirements for exporters stemming from importers’ imposition of NTMs, and a quality estimator that controls for price. Our empirical results indicate that, overall, divergence in sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures between the two trading partners reduces the quality of traded goods. Furthermore, while the divergence in SPS measures reduces the quality of traded goods in the manufacturing sector, the divergence in technical barriers to trade shows no statistically significant impact on the quality of traded goods between the two trading partners. The results imply that additional costs from technical barriers to trade are negligible compared with those from SPS measures in the manufacturing sector.
Topic:
Regulation, Tariffs, Public Policy, and Trade
Political Geography:
Global Focus

180. Global Value Chain Disruptions and Firm Survival During COVID-19: An Empirical Investigation

Author:
Sasidaran Gopalan and Ketan Reddy
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Despite the rapid acceleration of countries participating in global value chains (GVCs) over the last three decades, global GVC participation rates have plateaued since the global financial crisis (GFC) and worsened with the onset of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. The massive supply chain disruptions induced by the pandemic not only appeared to expose the vulnerabilities of GVCs, largely because of concentration risks, but also contributed to a dramatic decline in trade flows globally. As countries around the world emerge from the shadows of the pandemic, there is growing academic and policy interest in deciphering how countries should build effective strategies that facilitate firm survival, especially viewed from the lens of resilience and robustness. Considering this background, in this paper, we propose to make a twofold contribution to this literature. First, we undertake a comprehensive firm-level investigation (in a cross-country setting) to ascertain whether firms engaged in GVCs relative to non-GVC firms exhibited better survival instincts during the COVID-19 pandemic. Second, we uncover the heterogeneity of the shock across sectors and industries, considering the varied sectoral/industrial exposure to the COVID-19 pandemic. We document that GVC firms showcased greater robustness and resilience during the pandemic phase compared with other firms. Our results also show that the degree of resilience and robustness varies significantly by industry.
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Trade, Global Value Chains, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus