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1051. Economic Prospects for Kaliningrad: Between EU Enlargement and Russia's Integration into the World Economy

Author:
Evgeny Vinokurov
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The Kaliningrad oblast of Russia is currently an important focal point of discussions between the European Union and Russia. Although small in terms of geography and population, Kaliningrad has grown in importance due to the EU enlargement process. Since the break–up of the Soviet Union, the oblast has become an exclave of Russia, and it is now set to also become an enclave within the EU. This paper examines the state of Kaliningrad's economy and trade. The economic crisis that took place in Russia in the 1990s had severe consequences for Kaliningrad, as old patterns of production and trade were disrupted. Since 1999, however, the regional economy has grown with impressive speed. Kaliningrad's Special Economic Zone (SEZ) status has played a crucial role in determining its new patterns of production and trade specialisation. The paper argues that the SEZ regime has made the region's economic growth faster but also vulnerable.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

1052. Can Labour Market Institutions Explain Unemployment Rates in New EU Member States?

Author:
Sjef Ederveen and Laura Thissen
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This study poses the question about whether labour market institutions can explain unemployment rates in the ten new European Union member states. In five out of the ten new member states, unemployment rates lie above the average in the 15 member states of the European Union (EU-15) that comprised the EU prior to May 2004. The study finds that labour market institutions in the acceding countries are less rigid than in the EU-15. Moreover, labour market institutions explain only a minor part of unemployment in the new EU member states. This does not mean that these countries have no labour market problems. Just as in the EU-15, a great deal of heterogeneity exists among the acceding countries. In some of them, labour market reforms could prove a key issue in improving employment performance. The main worry is the poor labour market performance in Poland and the Slovak Republic, where unemployment has risen to almost 20%. The main reasons for this growth are i) postponed restructuring in combination with tight monetary policy; ii) poor governance; and iii) an increasing labour force.
Topic:
Economics and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
Europe

1053. Business Cycle Synchronisation in the Enlarged EU: Co-Movements in the New and Old Members

Author:
Zsolt Darvas and Gyorgy Szapary
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
It is generally recognised that countries wanting to join a monetary union should display the optimal currency area properties. One such property is the similarity of business cycles. We therefore undertook to analyse the synchronisation of business cycles between the EMU-12 and the eight new EU members from Central and Eastern Europe (CEECs), for which the next step to be considered in the integration process is entry into the EMU. In contrast to the usually analysed GDP and industrial production data, we extend our analysis to the major expenditure and sectoral components of GDP and use several measures of synchronisation. The main findings of the paper are that Hungary, Poland and Slovenia have achieved a high degree of synchronisation with EMU for GDP, industrial production and exports, but not for consumption and services. The other CEECs have achieved less or no synchronisation. There has been a significant increase in the synchronisation of GDP and also its major components in the EMU members since the start of the run-up to EMU. While this lends support for the existence of OCA endogeneity, it cannot be unambiguously attributed to it because there is also evidence of a world business cycle. Another finding is that the consumption-correlation puzzle remains, but its magnitude has greatly diminished in the EMU members, which is good news for common monetary policy.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe

1054. Searching for the Determinants of IT Investment: Panel Data Evidence on European Countries

Author:
Paolo Guerrieri, Cecilia Jona-Lasinio, and Stefano Manzocchi
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The aim of this paper is to identify the degree of information technology (IT) adoption in individual European economies and to analyse the determinants of IT investment among a panel of EU countries. We first analyse the dynamics of IT investment expenditure in 15 European countries from 1992 until 2001 and, by means of a cluster analysis, we draw a picture of IT diffusion in Europe. By clustering the European countries according to their shares of IT spending over GDP, we identify three fairly stable groups of fast, medium and slow adopters. We then build an econometric equation of the determinants of IT investment to use with panel data in estimations for five European economies over the period of 1980 to 2001. We consider aggregate IT investment as well as separate investment in hardware or software. Financial conditions, income growth and comparative advantage turn out to affect IT investment, but we find that the determinants of hardware investment only partially overlap with those of software.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Europe

1055. Can Europe deliver growth? The Sapir Report and Beyond

Author:
Jean-Pierre Casey and Jacques Pelkmans
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The SAPIR report (Sapir et al., 2003) is important for Europe. The justification of and search for higher economic growth in the EU ought to be on the very top of the EU agenda everywhere. Offering a very rich and useful survey of many issues related to European growth, or indeed the lack of it, the report's analysis is insightful and should be compulsory reading for policy-makers and political leaders. Sapir et al.'s policy recommendations are numerous and rightly touch economic as well as institutional aspects at EU level.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe

1056. The Transatlantic Economy in 2020: A Partnership for the Future?

Author:
Frances G. Burwell, W. Bowman Cutter, Paula Stern, and Peter S. Rashish
Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The United States and the European Union maintain the world's largest and most significant economic relationship, which in turn is a foundation supporting the transatlantic political partnership. By some estimates, the transatlantic economy — including two-way trade and foreign affiliate sales — totals $2.5 trillion and is responsible for 14 million jobs in the United States and Europe. It is not just the scale of the transactions, however; the transatlantic economy is deeply interconnected through impressive levels of foreign direct investment in both directions. Together, the United States and the EU have been key players in managing the global economy through the World Trade Organization, World Bank, and International Monetary Fund. They have been responsible for the major accomplishments in international trade liberalization of the last 40 years, and have spurred the adoption of global standards in a wide range of sectors.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

1057. Do Economic Sanctions Work? Lessons from ILSA Other Sanctions Regimes

Author:
Stuart E. Eizenstat
Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The 1990s saw a cascade of contentious sanctions legislation. Congress passed the Antiterrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act of 1996, including an amendment to the Sovereign Immunities Act, which permits lawsuits against governments on the terrorism list – a major step in denying foreign governments normal immunity from suit in U.S. courts. The Iran–Libya Sanctions Act (ILSA) was also passed in 1996, with the goal of discouraging third–country companies from investing in Iran or Libya. This sparked outrage from European countries, which objected to the act's “extra–territorial” reach, and from the European Union (EU) institutionally, which responded with a law barring any European company from complying with the legislation (and with similar provisions regarding Cuban trade under the controversial Helms–Burton Act).
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

1058. Post-Communist Competition and State Development

Author:
Anna Grzymala-Busse
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
Theories of institutional development have tended to view discretion, or the leeway to act within institutional bounds, as an often unintended consequence of agency design and institutional specification. Yet the post-communist states show that discretion is a fundamental goal of institutional creation among competing elites. In turn, while political competition has been identified as a key constraint on discretion in institutional creation, widely-used indicators of political competition are inadequate. As post-communist democracies show, the number or seat share of political parties matters far less than what parties do in parliament. The key factor is a robust opposition: a clear, credible, and contentious threat to governing parties. Such opposition leads to the rise of formal institutions that both minimize the discretion necessary for rent-seeking, and favor equitable distributional outcomes.
Topic:
Economics and Government
Political Geography:
Europe

1059. The Language of Democracy: Vernacular Or Esperanto? A Comparison between the Multiculturalist and Cosmopolitan Perspectives

Author:
Daniele Archibugi
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
Will Kymlicka has argued “democratic politics is politics in the vernacular.” Does it imply that democratic politics is impossible in a multilingual community, whether at the local, national, regional or global level? This paper discusses this assumption and maintains that democratic politics should imply the willingness of all players to make an effort to understand each other. Democratic politics imply the willingness to overcome the barriers to mutual understanding, including the linguistic ones. Any time that there is a community of fate, a democrat should search for methods that allow deliberation according to the two key conditions of political equality and participation. If linguistic diversity is an obstacle to equality and participation, some methods should be found to overcome it, as exemplified by the Esperanto metaphor. The paper illustrates the argument with four cases of multi-linguistic political communities: a) a school in California with English-speaking and Spanish-speaking students; b) the city of Byelostok in the second half of the nineteenth century, where four different linguistic communities (Polish, Russian, German and Yiddish) coexisted. This led Markus Zamenhof to invent Esperanto; c) the linguistic problems of the Indian state, and the role played by English – a language unspoken by the majority of the Indian population in 1947 – in developing Indian democracy; and d) the case of the European Parliament, with twenty languages and a wealth of interpreters and translators.
Topic:
Democratization, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, India, California, and Germany

1060. All for All: Equality and Social Trust

Author:
Bo Rothstein and Eric M. Uslaner
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
The importance of social trust has become widely accepted in the social sciences. A number of explanations have been put forward for the stark variation in social trust among countries. Among these, participation in voluntary associations received most attention. Yet, there is scant evidence that participation can lead to trust. In this paper, we shall examine a variable that has not gotten the attention we think it deserves in the discussion about the sources of generalized trust, namely equality. We conceptualize equality in two dimensions: one is economic equality and the other is equality of opportunity. The omission of both these dimensions of equality in the social capital literature is peculiar for several reasons. One is that it is obvious that the countries that score highest on social trust also rank highest on economic equality, namely the Nordic countries, the Netherlands, and Canada. Secondly, these are countries that have put a lot of effort in creating equality of opportunity, not least in regard to their policies for public education, labor market opportunities and (more recently) gender equality. The argument for increasing social trust by reducing inequality has largely been ignored in the policy debates about social trust. Social capital research has to a large extent been used by several governments and policy organizations to send a message to people that the bad things in their society are caused by too little volunteering. The policy implication that follows from our research is that the low levels of trust and social capital that plague many countries are caused by too little government action to reduce inequality. However, many countries plagued by low levels of social trust and social capital may be stuck in what is known as a social trap. The logic of such a situation is the following. Social trust will not increase because massive social inequality prevails, but the public policies that could remedy this situation cannot be established precisely because there is a genuine lack of trust. This lack of trust concerns both “other people” and the government institutions that are needed to implement universal policies.
Topic:
Civil Society, Economics, and Gender Issues
Political Geography:
Europe, Canada, and Netherlands

1061. Capital, Labor, and the Prospects of the European Social Model in the East

Author:
Dorothee Bohle and Bela Greskovitz
Publication Date:
05-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
During the past decade of European economic integration vastly worse standards have emerged in work conditions, industrial relations, and social welfare in Eastern Europe than in the West. Area scholars explain this divide by labor weakness caused by the ideological legacy of communism, and do not problematize the impact of transnational capital. In contrast, this essay argues that the reason why the European social model has not traveled to the East is that its socio-economic foundations, the industrial building blocks of the historical compromise between capital and labor, have not traveled either. In the West, the compromise had been rooted in capital-intensive consumer durables industries, such as car-manufacturing, and their suppliers. These sectors brought together organized and vocal labor with businesses willing to accommodate workers' demands, because for them labor had been less a problem as a cost-factor and more important as factor of demand. However, the main driving force of the eastward expansion of European capital has been the relocation of labor-intensive activities where business relies on sweating masses of workers, whose importance as consumers is marginal, and who are weak in the workplace and the marketplace. With this general conceptualization of how the emerging new European division of labor constrains the social aspects of East European market societies as a background, the essay studies the cases of Hungarian electronics and Slovak car industries in order to better understand how particular features of various leading sectors mediate the general pattern.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
Europe and Eastern Europe

1062. Lessons for Post-Communist Europe from the Iberian Integration into the EU after Sixteen Years

Author:
Sebastian Royo
Publication Date:
05-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
The purpose of this paper is to outline the main consequences for Portugal and Spain of EU integration. It uses the integration of Portugal and Spain into the European Union as an opportunity to draw some lessons that may be applicable to East European countries as they pursue their own processes of integration into the European Union. It examines challenges and opportunities that new member states from central and Eastern Europe will face when trying to integrate in the EU. Finally, the paper analyzes the impact the 2004 enlargement will have on the Iberian countries.
Topic:
Economics and Government
Political Geography:
Europe and Spain

1063. Why European Citizens Will Reject the EU Constitution

Author:
Claes H. de Vreese
Publication Date:
05-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
This study tests competing hypotheses about popular support for European integration. It introduces anti-immigration sentiments as a key variable for understanding reluctance towards integration. Drawing on survey data, it is found that anti-immigration sentiments, economic considerations, and the evaluation of domestic governments are the strongest predictors of both support for integration and individuals' propensity to vote “Yes” in a referendum on the enlargement of the EU. When extrapolating the findings to future referendums on issues of European integration, it may be predicted that such referendums will result in a “No” outcome under the conditions of high levels of anti-immigration sentiments, pessimistic economic outlooks, and/or unpopularity of a government.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

1064. The EMU Macroeconomic Policy Regime and the European Social Model

Author:
Andrew Martin
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
This paper will be a chapter in Euros and Europeans: Monetary Integration and the European Social Model, Andrew Martin and George Ross, eds., Cambridge University Press, 2004. Over time, the impact of EMU on the European social model (ESM) is likely to depend most fundamentally on its effects on unemployment. If EMU makes possible a significant reduction in unemployment, it poses no threat to the ESM. However, EMU is likely to keep unemployment at high levels. This expectation hinges on two propositions: 1) in order to bring unemployment back down after an extended period of disinflation has kept growth below its potential and unemployment high, a period of economic growth above its long-run potential – a growth spurt – is necessary, and 2), the EMU macroeconomic policy regime, as interpreted and implemented by the ECB, blocks such a growth spurt. The first part of the paper describes the policy regime, arguing that the ECB's implementation of it so far and the bank's rationale for doing so indicate an unwillingness to permit the growth spurt needed to significantly reduce unemployment. Its rationale invokes the orthodox view that monetary policy has no long run effects on growth and employment. This view is challenged by an alternative view, described in the second part. The alternative rests mainly on an empirical analysis of cases in which disinflation was and was not followed by growth spurts during the 1980s and 1990s. Showing that in the long run unemployment was lower without higher inflation where monetary policy permitted growth spurts than where it did not, this analysis suggests that the ECB's orthodoxy is fundamentally flawed and that adherence to it will perpetuate Europe's high unemployment.
Topic:
Economics, Human Welfare, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

1065. Learning and Change in Twentieth-Century British Economic Policy

Author:
Michael J. Oliver and Hugh Pemberton
Publication Date:
05-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
Despite considerable interest in the means by which policy learning occurs, and in how it is that the framework of policy may be subject to radical change, the “black box” of economic policymaking remains surprisingly murky. This article utilizes Peter Hall's concept of “social learning” to develop a more sophisticated model of policy learning; one in which paradigm failure does not necessarily lead to wholesale paradigm replacement, and in which an administrative battle of ideas may be just as important a determinant of paradigm change as a political struggle. It then applies this model in a survey of UK economic policymaking since the 1930s: examining the shift to “Keynesianism” during the 1930s and 1940s; the substantial revision of this framework in the 1960s; the collapse of the “Keynesian-plus” framework in the 1970s; and the major revisions to the new “neo-liberal” policy framework in the 1980s and 1990s.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

1066. How Can International Organizations Shape National Welfare States? Evidence from Compliance with EU Directives

Author:
Katerina Linos
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
How can international organizations shape national welfare states? The answer depends on why national governments comply with international organization mandates. International relations scholarship offers two competing compliance models. Enforcement theories emphasize states' utilitarian calculus and predict that states' policy preferences determine implementation, while managerial theories attribute non-compliance to states' capability limitations and emphasize institutional variables. This paper examines the implementation of EU social policy directives through a new quantitative dataset and qualitative case studies of implementation in Greece and Spain. Three proxies for national social policy preferences – low labor costs, high unemployment and early national social legislation – predict implementation delays. At the same time, factors unrelated to national preferences on particular directives have at least as large an impact on timely implementation. Thus, a national bureaucracy's capacity and the absence of veto players reduce implementation delays. These findings suggest that capabilities influence compliance at least as much as preferences, but through mechanisms different from the ones emphasized in existing work. Although international organizations may not be especially successful in overcoming past policy legacies in favor of future commitments, they can reorient the axes of contestation from left-right to supra-sub national and thus shape national policies.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Europe

1067. CERI: Barter and Inter-business Transactions in Russia: Trade Normalization in View after the Ruble Crisis of 1998?

Author:
Caroline Dufy
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
Barter was a prominent issue in public debate during the 1990s in Russia: it prompted a more overall reflection on the nature of the Russian economy and the aim pursued by economic reforms. These major issues shaped a number of divisions: the government opposition portrayed barter as one of the pernicious effects of economic policies that gave priority to finance to the detriment of the national productive sphere. For others, it was to be interpreted as the legacy of the Soviet industrial sector and its lack of competitiveness.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

1068. Drifting Apart or Growing Together?

Author:
Joseph P. Quinlan
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Transatlantic Relations
Abstract:
One of the defining features of the global economic landscape over the past decade has been the increasing integration and cohesion of the transatlantic economy. Globalization is happening faster and reaching deeper between Europe and America than between any other two continents. The data in this study suggest that the past decade was not primarily about U.S. companies spreading their operations to the four corners of the globe. Rather, it was a time when the transatlantic economy became even more intertwined and interdependent. Failing to understand this dynamic can lead to serious errors of policy and cause significant damage to U.S. and European interests.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, America, and Europe

1069. Chechen Militia Threaten Increased Terrorism

Author:
Tamara Makarenko
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence, St. Andrews University, Scotland
Abstract:
Chechen resistance movements have reorganised to adjust to the post 11 September 2001 security environment, and appear to be adopting more lethal terrorist tactics. Tamara Makarenko reports.
Topic:
Security, Economics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, and Moscow

1070. Economic Conditions, Democracy and the IMF

Author:
Susan Minushkin
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
This study seeks to test the hypotheses that different styles of financial market opening can be explained, in part, by general economic conditions and the need to attract external capital. It seeks, as well, to test the some for the more general arguments advanced in the financial market opening literature that financial market opening is a result of a country's increased participation in the international financial system and increased international trade integration. Two specifically political arguments also are tested. The first is that emerging markets opened their markets in response to pressure from the IMF. The second is that there is an association between political freedom and open markets. I test these hypotheses using regression analyses of panel data from a sample of emerging market countries.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe and North America

1071. Take the State Back Out? Comparing French Responses to Globalization in Agriculture and Shipping

Author:
Mark Aspinwall and Imtiaz Hussain
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
How autonomous is a state in today's highly interdependent international economy to pursue policies that diverge widely from the international norm? Does the degree of autonomy vary for different domestic sectors? We adapt and apply Benjamin Cohen's unholy trinity model (1993), to a comparative assessment of how France responded to globalization over agriculture and shipping, focusing on three dimensions—investment, transaction costs, and government policy responses. Although France is reputed to possess a strong state machinery (Katzenstein, 1987; Wilson, 1987; Skocpol, 1985), our analysis raises qualifications. On the one hand, regardless of government policy intentions, we find irreversible forms of disinvestment in both sectors, though different in nature—geographic for shipping, and functional for agriculture; on the other, we also find continued dependence upon the state—for aid in shipping and resisting free trade in agriculture. We further find that, although internal and endogenous, as well as external and exogenous, factors influence policy-making, the nature of these factors are different for the two sectors. We conclude by drawing implications of our findings for state-society relations and European integration.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and France

1072. Los Balcanes: Entre el Pasado y el Presente. Una Introducción Históica a los Estudios Balcánicos

Author:
Slobodan Pajovic
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
This working paper deals with the complex, turbulent and contradictory history of the Balkans region. It is argued that the tragic realities confronting the region derive mainly from its asymmetric geopolitical, economic and cultural position, and its high degree of vulnerability and dependence on Western Europe and the Near East. It suggests that it is possible to study the history of the region by examining processes of both internal fragmentation and external subordination. While the paper cannot constitute a complete or systematic study of the Balkans, it presents and overview of the most salient features in the region's historical, politico-economic and cultural development. Two case studies, Yugoslavia and Kosovo, help to highlight the broader trends.
Topic:
Economics, Human Welfare, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe, Iran, Middle East, Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, and Balkans

1073. Sustainable Regional Development through Institutionalised Trans-frontier Cooperation in the Sofia-Skopje-Nis Triangle--Towards the Establishment of a Euroregion

Author:
Stoyan Totev and Maria Boyadjieva
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
The transition process in Central and Eastern Europe was associated with increasing intra-regional disparities. It appears also that the regional inequalities in South east Europe are relatively high creating in the same time significantly higher economic and social problems. That refers to Bulgaria, Macedonia and FR Yugoslavia whereas every reform face serious difficulties due to the lower readiness for accession to the EU structures as well as for their backwardness in the economic development. In countries like Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovenia there exist enough resources for facing the negative effects from one or another reform as well as the necessary readiness of the population the reform s to be carried out.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, Bulgaria, and Macedonia

1074. The Federal Budget and the Regions

Author:
A.M. Lavrov
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
Improvement of the financial relations between the Federation and the regions still remains quite an urgent problem. The Concept of Reforming Inter budgetary Relations in the Russian Federation in 1999 — 2000 is being implemented; Russia's Finance Ministry has developed the Concept of Reforming Budget Federalism in the Russian Federation to 2005, which will soon be approved by the Government; a special section on interbudgetary relations has been included in the Main Long- Term Trends of Socio-Economic Policy of the Russian Federation Government program, drafted by the Strategic Research Center.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Bosnia

1075. France's Double-Talk on Globalization

Author:
Sophie Meunier
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
French Politics, Culture Society
Institution:
Conference Group on French Politics Society
Abstract:
France has become a worldwide champion of anti-globalization. French intellectuals have long denounced the cultural and economic shortcomings of US-led globalization, while French politicians, on the Left as on the Right, load their speeches with rhetoric critical of a phenomenon that gets a lot less attention in other European countries and in the United States. Yet, at the same time, France is a country whose economy and society have adapted well to this much-criticized globalization. Why this double-speak? Why this disjuncture between words and actions? This article explores this paradox, analyzes the role that France's double discourse on globalization has played in producing the surprising outcome of the 2002 elections, and reflects on the options open to the main political parties today.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and France

1076. €uros for ESDP – financing EU operations

Author:
Antonio Missiroli
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
The financing of EU-led crisis management operations is a somewhat neglected yet nevertheless crucial factor affecting the external effectiveness and internal consistency of the Union's foreign and security policy. Until recently, CFSP's operational acquis has been minimal, its legal underpinning limited and tortuous, its budgetary fundament ludicrous, and its administrative practice mostly contradictory and often fraught with inter-institutional turf battles between Council, Commission and Parliament. With the launch of the first ESDP operations proper (EUPM in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Concordia in FYROM) in 2003, the forthcoming Operation Artemis in the Democratic Republic of Congo and the possible takeover of SFOR after 2004, it has become all the more important and urgent to devise more appropriate arrangements and incentives for common action. The European Convention and the ensuing Intergovernmental Conference represent additional opportunities to be seized. In this respect, the main issues to be addressed regard: a) the speed and readiness of budgetary allocations, on the one hand, and their long-term sustainability, on the other; b) the coherence of the relevant provisions, in both institutional and functional terms, and their consistency with the peculiarities of the EU as an international actor; and c) the degree of transparency, accountability and internal fairness compatible with the imperatives of crisis management. The experience of other international organisations operating in this field (NATO, OSCE, UN) can also be taken into consideration with a view to selecting rules and modalities that may be helpful in tackling the problems highlighted here. First and foremost, it is desirable that the current fragmentation of CFSP expenditure in separate EU budgetary lines be overcome. The appointment of an EU 'Minister for Foreign Affairs' (or whatever title is given to the new foreign policy supremo) is expected to help solve this problem and reduce some inter-institutional tensions and bottlenecks. For example, it is desirable for all expenditure related to civilian crisis management (with the possible exception of the salaries of seconded national personnel) to be borne by the EU bud- get in a more transparent fashion. To this end, the relevant procedures have to be made less tortuous and more flexible. Secondly, expenditure for operations 'having military or defence implications' — in so far as it will remain distinct and separate from the rest — should be pooled in a more systematic, sustainable and explicit manner. Neither the current 'ad hocery' (as exemplified by EUPM and Concordia ) nor the minimalist approach adopted by the Convention's Praesidium (with the proposal of a subsidiary 'start-up' fund) address the essential issues. In fact, if a subsidiary budget has to be set up, then it should be more ambitious and create a long- term basis for covering all the 'common costs' arising from military operations. Such an EU Operational Fund could usefully draw upon the precedent of the European Development Fund and adopt a distinct 'key' for national contributions. Such a 'key' should take into account e.g. the member states' ability to pay but also their ability to contribute in kin through the actual involvement of personnel and equipment in EU operations. It should also be periodically adjustable and help overcome potential 'burden-sharing' disputes inside the Union by setting agreed criteria against which to measure and assess national contributions without resorting to the crude GDP scale. At the same time, the Fund's financial cycle should be the same as that of the EU budget. And, in perspective, the “common costs” thus covered should include also accommodation and transportation costs, especially if the Union develops common capabilities in the fields of strategic lift and logistics. By doing so, the EU would eventually have two main modalities for common operational expenditure at its disposal: the EU budget for all non-military aspects, and the Operational Fund. Both would guarantee a reliable financial perspective. If the separation between civilian and military aspects were ever to be bridged, their merger would not represent a problem. Thirdly, the European Parliament could consider reimbursing those member states who participate in ESDP operations a fixed somme for faitaire to cover partially the per diems of their seconded personnel (civilian as well as military). Such reimbursement could be made through the EU budget annually, ex post facto, with no political conditions attached. On the one hand, it would prove that the EU budget covers not only internal benefits (agriculture and structural funds) but also external commitments. On the other, it would add transparency to ESDP in that the Parliament could organise hearings with experts and officials as well as plenary debates. For their part, the member states would gain an additional incentive – however modest – to provide adequate human resources for external operations. Finally, participating 'third' (and especially remaining and future candidate) countries could well be associated with all these arrangements, either case by case or more systematically. And none of the proposals outlined here necessarily require treaty change, although it would be preferable to insert some 'enabling' clauses in the Constitutional Treaty. All proposals, however, would require collaboration — rather than competition — between EU institutions.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe, Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Democratic Republic of the Congo

1077. The European Union and armaments Getting a bigger bang for the Euro

Author:
Burkard Schmitt
Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
The proposals of the Convention on the Future of Europe and the recent European Commission Communication on a Defence Equipment Policy have revived the debate about the EU's possible involvement in armaments. There is indeed a chance today that a European Agency for Armaments, Research and Capabilities will be set up and anchored in the new EU Treaty. At the same time, there is a growing consensus that the EU Commission should have certain competencies in the field of security-related research, and even the establishment of a common defence equipment market is (again) under discussion.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Europe

1078. Cross Border Trafficking in South Eastern Europe - Assessing Trafficking Activities in the Southern Adriatic Region

Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
South Eastern Europe Clearinghouse for the Control of Small Arms and Light Weapons
Abstract:
Borders communities are more than just entry and exit points to a country. In the world of porous borders and transborder crime, these communities take on various aspects of the activities pursued in their environs. Some of these activities are clearly evident, such as the increase in youth appearing to be drug users. Other signs are more difficult to pinpoint, as one person's businessman becomes another's smuggler. These characteristics are exacerbated by the context of a post-conflict situation where tensions and isolation cause greater conspiracy theories rather than greater cooperation and coordination.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Economics
Political Geography:
Europe

1079. A Global Race for Free Trade Agreements

Author:
Arne Melchior
Publication Date:
11-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The article examines the currently expanding worldwide network of bilateral free trade agreements. Following regional integration in Europe and later the Americas, the process if East Asia has accelerated from 2002. A Distinctive feature of the current stage in the expansion of FTAs beyond geographical regions and into global space, hence challenging WTOs supremacy on inter-continental trade rules. Setbacks in the WTO Doha Round may stimulate a further move towards «global bilateralism». The more such agreements in place, the greater is the incentive for new ones. Even if political obstacles hinder some agreements, the process is currently accelerating. While it is rational for countries to pursue such agreements, they should in parallel work for multilateral trade liberalisation in order to reduce the discriminatory impact of FTAs. This is needed if we are to avoid that «Most Favoured Nation» treatment under the WTO actually becomes «Least Favoured Nation» treatment: Rules that only apply to countries that are left outside the «free trade race».
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
Political Geography:
America, Europe, and East Asia

1080. Study of selected Fredskorpset exchange projects

Author:
Axel Borchgrevink
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The present study examines nine Fredskorpset exchange projects, in order to assess the degree to which the goals specified have been reached. The basis for the exchanges is the partnerships established between institutions in Norway and counterpart entities in the South. The projects studied encompass a wide variety of such partnerships, illustrating the flexible and innovative attitude that Fredskorpset has shown during its first two years of operation. By basing its work on such partnerships, Fredskorpset has avoided some of the weaknesses of traditional volunteer programs. In terms of achievements, there are variations among the projects. While individual learning of participants was strong in all cases, the degree to which institutional benefits were achieved varied. Well-matched partners with sufficiently strong institutional structures; thorough planning of exchanges; and participants selected in accordance with well-defined needs for professional skills were seen to be important factors for successful projects.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe and Norway

1081. Economic Survey of euro area, 2003

Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
Entering its fifth year of existence, the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) has met major headwinds. At the advent of the single currency the euro area experienced solid economic growth, with unemployment falling and public finances rapidly improving. However, a number of structural problems were exposed with the cyclical downturn since 2001, from which the area is recovering only hesitantly. The challenges facing policy makers at present are both of a short-run and medium-run nature. Policy makers are currently grappling with sluggish demand. Responding to this challenge, monetary policy has been eased and fiscal policy reacted through the automatic stabilisers. However, the room for manoeuvre was reduced by lingering inflationary pressures and earlier insufficient fiscal adjustment in several member states. Meanwhile the euro exchange rate has appreciated significantly. Over the medium term, the Community has set ambitious targets and a vast programme for enhancing the performance of labour, product and financial markets. This programme needs to be pursued with vigour, thereby raising the odds of large gains in trend growth and jobs while making it easier to achieve sound fiscal positions.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Economics, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe

1082. Economic Survey of France, 2003

Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
After several years of rapid expansion, the French economy has entered into a period of below potential growth, with a negative output gap opening up. Monetary conditions have been relaxed, while fiscal policy has eased excessively, provoking the European Commission to initiate an excessive deficit procedure. As uncertainty dissipates towards the middle of this year, the economy should pick up speed, reaching a growth rhythm of around 2 per cent in 2004. Nevertheless, over the medium term, in the absence of substantial reforms the ageing of the population risks threatening economic and fiscal equilibrium. Current pension and healthcare reform initiatives and plans to redress spending over the medium term go in the right direction. However, in order to ensure medium and long-term fiscal sustainability, additional policies to slow the expansion of health and pension spending are required, while efforts to raise employment rates and potential output are needed to improve the economy's ability to finance future ageing-related expenditure. Here, programmes that offer the possibility of on-the-job training should be expanded so as to reactivate young and lowskilled workers, while reforms to early-retirement schemes and the pension system need to be continued so as to restore work incentives for older workers. Ongoing tax and labour market reforms and policies to facilitate the development of high-tech and fast growing enterprises, which should help promote investment and higher productivity growth, also need to be pursued. The opening of the capital of stateowned enterprises and their eventual privatisation, and planned improvements to governance structures should help promote growth, but revenues from sell-offs ought to be used to reduce debt. Finally, in order to better manage the totality of public expenditures, the authorities need to implement reforms that can be used to ensure that all spending organisms contribute to controlling spending. Here, it will be necessary to implement mechanisms that would improve the effectiveness of measures to control healthcare spending. Moreover, decision-makers need to be more directly confronted with the long-term consequences of their actions. Initiatives such as decentralisation and the new budget framework law should help in this regard. Pursuit of reforms along all of these lines should permit society to meet the fiscal challenge posed by population ageing, while retaining high levels of service.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Economics, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe and France

1083. Feasible Financing Strategies for Environmentally Related Infrastructure

Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
An important obstacle to achieving environmental goals in many countries has been the failure to adequately address the associated financial issues: the costs of achieving goals; how those costs could be minimised; and the challenge of matching costs with available resources. The need for a fresh approach has become evident as central European countries come to terms with mobilising substantial financial resources to comply with challenging EU environmental requirements, and as the countries of Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia (EECCA) struggle to maintain even the low levels of services currently delivered by environmentally-related infrastructure.
Topic:
Economics, Environment, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe, Central Asia, and Eastern Europe

1084. Financial Conglomerates: The Future of Finance?

Author:
Robert Litan and Richard Herring
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
In 1999, after nearly twenty years of debate, the U.S. Congress finally passed legislation permitting bank affiliations with all sorts of other financial enterprises, and vice versa. In this step, the United States joined many other countries — especially in Europe and, more recently, Japan — in allowing the operation of financial conglomerates. But are financial conglomerates the wave of the future in finance? And if so, how are they to be regulated? These were the two central questions addressed in the fifth annual conference of the Brookings-Wharton Papers on Financial Services, an annual volume published by the Brookings Institution Press. The conference, held in October 2002 in Washington, D.C., convened financial services experts from around the world. The papers presented at the conference suggest, generally, that while the future may see more financial conglomerate activity than it has in the past, there still will be a role for specialist, or "monoline" financial companies. As for regulation, there is no settled model: some nations will pursue consolidated supervision, with authority over entire conglomerates vested in a single authority (often the central bank), while others will still regulate the pieces of diversified financial enterprises along structural lines.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Washington

1085. Threats to Financial Privacy and Tax Competition

Author:
Veronique de Rugy and Richard W. Rahn
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Global economic growth and personal freedom are under attack by governments and international organizations seeking to squelch financial privacy and tax competition. Privacy rights and international tax competition are beneficial constraints on the monopoly power of governments. But high-tax nations and organizations such as the European Union are pressing for international agreements to remove those limits on government power at the expense of prosperity and freedom.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and International Organization
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

1086. Making Money: Political Development, the Greenback, and the Euro

Author:
Kathleen R. McNamara
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
Abstract:
The creation of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) in Europe challenges much of what we have come to take for granted about states and the components of sovereignty. What does the willingness of twelve European Union (EU) members to abandon their own currencies mean for the nation-states of Europe? Does the Euro automatically imply further political development at the EU level? To address these questions, this paper parses out the role that national currencies play in statebuilding with reference to the nineteenth century American experience. Just as US federal authorities engaged in a political project to wrest control over money from subnational authorities to the center and unify the currency, so have the dynamics of currency unification in the EU involved important conflicts over the location of the legitimate exercise of control and rule. In particular, I highlight the role of war and market integration in prompting currency consolidation, and the importance of linkages between money and fiscal capacity for statebuilding, and apply the analytical lessons learned from the US experience to the case of the Euro.
Topic:
Development and Economics
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

1087. Institutions for Fiscal Stability

Author:
Barry Eichengreen, George C. Pardee, and Helen N. Pardee
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
Abstract:
This paper reviews the controversy over Europe's Stability and Growth Pact and offers a proposal for its reform. It argues that Europe would be best served by focusing on the fundamental causes of unsustainable debts — public enterprises that are too big to fail, unfunded public pension schemes that are too big to ignore, inefficient and costly labor market and social welfare problems, and budget making institutions that create common pool and free-rider problems — rather than on arbitrary numerical indicators like whether the budget deficit is above or below 3 per cent of GDP. It proposes defining an index of institutional reform with, say, a point each for reform of budget making arrangements, reform of public pension schemes, and reform of labor markets and unemployment insurance. Countries receiving three points would be exempt from the Pact's numerical guidelines, since there is no reason to think that they will be prone to chronic deficits. The others, whose weak institutions render them susceptible to chronic deficits, would in contrast still be subject to its warnings, sanctions and fines.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Debt, and Economics
Political Geography:
Europe

1088. The Accession Economies' Rocky Road to the Euro

Author:
Barry Eichengreen, George C. Pardee, and Helen N. Pardee
Publication Date:
11-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
Abstract:
Now that the decision has been taken to admit to the European Union eight of what were once called the transition economies, attention has naturally turned to whether these countries should also join Europe's monetary union. But where is a consensus that joining the EU, while posing certain difficulties, will be a source of net benefits, there is no such consensus about the adoption of the euro. In part this uncertainty reflects the unusual difficulty that monetary economists have in translating theory into policy. We specialists, in other words, cannot even agree amongst ourselves.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe

1089. The Euro Through a Glass Darkly

Author:
Barry Eichengreen
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
Abstract:
On January 1st, Europe's monetary union will celebrate its fifth anniversary. Congratulations are not exactly pouring in. For going on two years, growth in the countries of the Euro Area has been significantly slower than in the United States. Unemployment over much of the continent remains disturbingly high. The single currency has not been a tonic for Europe's stagnant economy. To the contrary, numerous critics complain, the advent of the euro has only compounded Europe's economic problems. This paper provides a review and analysis of the debate.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

1090. Institutions for Fiscal Stability (Europe's Stability and Growth Pact)

Author:
Barry Eichengreen
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
Abstract:
This paper reviews the controversy over Europe's Stability and Growth Pact and offers a proposal for its reform. It argues that Europe would be best served by focusing on the fundamental problems for fiscal policy — public enterprises that are too big to fail, unfunded public pension schemes that are too big to ignore, inefficient and costly labor market and social welfare problems, and budget making institutions that create common pool and free-rider problems — rather than on arbitrary numerical indicators like whether the budget deficit is above or below 3 per cent of GDP. It proposes defining an index of institutional reform with, say, a point for pension reform, a point for labor market reform, and a point for revenue sharing reform. Countries receiving three points would be exempt from the Pact's numerical guidelines, since there is no reason to think that they will be prone to chronic deficits. The others, whose weak institutions render them susceptible to chronic deficits, would in contrast still be subject to its warnings, sanctions and fines.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe

1091. Whither Europe?

Author:
Barry Eichengreen
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
Abstract:
Where I live, on the West Coast of the United States, and teach, at the University of California, Europe seems far away. Geographically we are closer to Latin America and Asia. Ethnically, Californians of Hispanic and Asian-American descent are increasingly numerous. Within 20 years, residents of European origin will be a minority; already they are a minority of the undergraduates enrolling at Berkeley. Economically as well, we look to Asia. It is in California where the largest number of container ships arriving from Asia are unloaded, and it is across the Pacific, and in China in particular, that most of those containers originate.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, China, Europe, Asia, California, and Latin America

1092. Institutions for Fiscal Stability (Financial Integration in Europe and Asia)

Author:
Barry Eichengreen and Yung Chul Park
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
Abstract:
One of the most striking aspects of Europe's recent development has been the growth and integration of financial markets. Bond markets have grown explosively since the advent of the euro. Cross border transactions in government bonds have risen sharply with the emergence of the German bund as a benchmark asset, while the volume of corporate bond issues has grown even more dramatically. Securities markets are consolidating around London and Frankfurt, which are competing for the mantle of Europe's dominant financial center. This rapid market integration has raised questions about the viability of Europe's traditional model of bank-based financial intermediation, causing commercial and investment banks to respond with a wave of mergers and acquisitions.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe, Asia, London, and Germany

1093. The Politics of the German Company Network

Author:
Martin Höpner and Lothar Krempel
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
For over 100 years, the German company network was a major feature of organized corporate governance in Germany. This paper uses network visualization techniques and qualitative-historical analysis to discuss the structure, origins and development of this network and to analyze the reasons for its recent erosion. Network visualization makes it possible to identify crucial entanglement patterns that can be traced back historically. In three phases of network formation – the 1880s, 1920s and the 1950s –, capital entanglement resulted from the interplay of company behavior and government policy. In its heyday, the company network was de facto encompassing and provided its core participants, especially the banks, with a national, macroeconomic perspective. In the 1970s, a process of increased competition among financial companies set in. In the 1980s and 1990s, declining returns from blockholding and increased opportunity costs made network dissolution a thinkable option for companies. Because of the strategic reorientation of the largest banks toward investment banking, ties between banks and industry underwent functional changes. Since the year 2000, the German government's tax policy has sped up network erosion. Vanishing capital ties imply a declining degree of strategic coordination among large German companies.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Governance
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

1094. Stabilizing Postwar Europe: Aligning Domestic and International Goals

Author:
Armin Schäfer
Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
This paper looks at the historical developments that led to the Schuman Plan in 1950, which today is seen as a starting signal for the European integration process. It argues that this announcement by the French foreign minister constituted a genuine change of strategy that can only be understood in the light of the preceding historical chain of events. The first steps of European integration were part of a search for suitable institutions capable of dealing with Europe's economic and political problems, which also involved the Bretton Woods institutions, Marshall Aid and the OEEC, and, finally, the ECSC. These organizations' respective fate depended on the strategies of key states, which in turn were driven by domestic concerns. Aligning their interests took several steps and was only completed when all three organizations existed in parallel. Throughout this process, all states had to abandon their preferred course of action and learn to settle for second best.
Topic:
Civil Society, Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe

1095. A Comparative Study of Business Lobbying in the European Parliament, the European Commission and the Council of Ministers

Author:
Pieter Bouwen
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
The aim of this paper is to empirically test a theory of access that investigates the logic behind the apparent ad hoc lobbying behavior of business interests in the EU multi-level system. First, I propose the theoretical framework that attempts to explain the access of different organizational forms of business interest representation (companies, associations and consultants) to the European Commission, the European Parliament and the Council of Ministers. The degree of access to these institutions is explained in terms of a theory of supply and demand of access goods. Access goods concern information that is crucial in the EU policy-making process. In return for access to an EU institution, business interests have to provide the access good(s) demanded by that institution. I then derive a number of specific hypotheses about the access of the aforementioned organizational forms. These hypotheses are analyzed in an extensive empirical study of the EU financial services sector. On the basis of 126 exploratory and semi-structured interviews the hypotheses are checked across the three EU institutions.
Topic:
Economics, Human Welfare, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe

1096. A Decomposition Analysis of Regional Poverty in Russia

Author:
Anthony Shorrocks and Stanislav Kolenikov
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper applies a new decomposition technique to the study of variations in poverty across the regions of Russia. The procedure, which is based on the Shapley value in cooperative game theory, allows the deviation in regional poverty levels from the all- Russia average to be attributed to three proximate sources; mean income per capita, inequality, and local prices. Contrary to expectation, regional poverty variations turn out to be due more to differences in inequality across regions than to differences in real income per capita. However, when real income per capita is split into nominal income and price components, differences in nominal incomes emerge as more important than either inequality or price effects for the majority of regions.
Topic:
Economics and Poverty
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

1097. Quo Vadis? Inequality and Poverty Dynamics across Russian Regions

Author:
Ruslan Yemtsov
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper analyses regional data on inequality and poverty in Russia during 1994-2000 using published series from the regionally representative Household Budget Survey. The paper finds that the share of inequality in Russia coming from the between-regions component is large (close to a third of the total inequality), growing, and accounts for most of the increase in national inequality over 1994-2000. The paper demonstrates an absence of interregional convergence in incomes across Russian regions using various techniques. On the other hand, the paper finds evidence of convergence in inequality within regions, trended towards an internationally high level. Based on these two findings, the paper projects dynamics of inequality and poverty in Russia over a ten-year time horizon. The projections show that if the observed trend continues, by 2010 the absolute majority of Russia's poor will be concentrated in a few permanently impoverished regions, while relatively more affluent regions will become virtually free of poverty. Finally, the paper relates fluctuations in inequality within regions to a set of factors classified into four broad categories: endowments and initial conditions, preferences, policies, and shocks. Among these factors short-run fluctuations of the unemployment rate are revealed as significant and strong signals of inequality.
Topic:
Demographics, Economics, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

1098. Regional Output Differences in International Perspective

Author:
Alan Heston and Bettina Aten
Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Accurate regional estimates of output are desired as an indicator of level of development and as a variable used to explain internal migration, demand patterns, fertility and other aspects of behaviour. This chapter explores one often neglected aspect of regional income differences, namely that due to price differences or regional purchasing power parities. When nominal regional income measures are adjusted for these price level differences they are termed real regional incomes. The preferred method of estimating regional purchasing power parities by detailed price comparisons is discussed for Brazil, the United States and the European Union. The empirical thrust of the chapter is an investigation of different methods for estimating regional real incomes based on PPP data for 167 countries and nominal regional incomes and other data for about 870 administrative areas at the subnational level. Even in their present form we believe the real income estimates provided for the geographical units present opportunities for understanding the world economic structure.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Brazil

1099. Economic Integration and Migration: The Mexico-US Case

Author:
Philip Martin
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper explains the evolution and effects of Mexico-US migration, and highlights the NAFTA approach to economic integration, viz., free up trade and investment while stepping up efforts to prevent unauthorized migration. The European Union approach is different: provide aid first, and later free up trade and migration in the expectation that moves toward convergence will ensure minimal migration because trade has become a substitute for migration. The paper concludes that NAFTA will reduce unwanted Mexico-US migration in the medium to long term, and that different initial conditions in Europe mean that there will be relatively little east-west migration when nationals of new entrant EU members achieve freedom of movement.
Topic:
Economics and Migration
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Mexico

1100. Social and Economic Decline as Factors in Conflict in the Caucasus

Author:
Svetlana Glinkina and Dorothy Rosenberg
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
We argue that the conflicts in the Caucasus are the result of the abrogation by the elite of the earlier, Soviet era, social contract. This process was accompanied by the collapse of the formal economy; evidenced by huge national income compression, falling public goods provision, and growing inequality and poverty. In the absence of state provision of basic amenities and governance, ordinary people are compelled to fall back on kinship ties. Declining standards of governance facilitate state-sponsored corruption and criminality in a setting where the shadow economic activity is increasingly important to individual survival strategies. Oil pipelines and the right to control the transit of goods both legal and illegal also underlie conflict in the region. Criminality has replaced ethnicity as the major motivation for conflict and conflict per se has become a lucrative source of income.
Topic:
Economics, Ethnic Conflict, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, and Soviet Union