Political Geography: Europe / Journal:

4551. Digitalisation and Flight: How Can Donors Leverage Digital Technologies to Support Refugees?

Author:: Charles Martin-Shields
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: This policy brief provides a review of how refugees use digital tools, gives examples from organisations deploying digital technologies in the field, and discusses the effectiveness of and the ethical issues surrounding the use of digital technologies to support refugees. By putting the needs of refugees at the centre of their digital strategies and working with implementing organisations, such as UNHCR and Mercy Corps, to develop technology solutions that meet the needs of refugees and field staff safely and ethically, donors can get the most out of digital tools for supporting refugees.//In der vorliegenden „Analyse und Stellungnahme“ wird ein Überblick über die Verwendung digitaler Tools durch Flüchtlinge gegeben. Des Weiteren werden Beispiele von Organisationen vorgestellt, die digitale Technologien einsetzen, und die Wirksamkeit sowie ethische Fragen im Zusammenhang mit dem Einsatz digitaler Technologien zur Unterstützung von Flüchtlingen erörtert. Durch Fokussierung auf die Bedürfnisse von Flüchtlingen bei der Entwicklung von Technologielösungen und die Zusammenarbeit mit Partnerorganisationen, die in der Lage sind, Sicherheitsstandards im Datenschutz zu erfüllen, wie z.B. dem UNHCR und Mercy Corps, können Geber digitale Tools bestmöglich zur Unterstützung von Flüchtlingen einsetzen.
Topic:: Humanitarian Aid, Migration, Science and Technology, and Refugees
Political Geography:: Europe, Germany, and Global Focus

4552. Mission to the Middle East 2017: The Plight of the Displaced

Author:: Kevin Appleby
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:: From February 23, 2017 to March 6, 2017, His Eminence Roger Cardinal Mahony, archbishop emeritus of Los Angeles, California; His Excellency Silvano Tomasi, c.s., delegate secretary for the Holy See’s Dicastery on Integral Human Development; and Kevin Appleby, senior director of international migration policy for the Center for Migration Studies of New York (CMS) and the Scalabrini International Migration Network (SIMN), joined in a mission to Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, and Greece to examine the situation of refugees and the displaced in these states. The visit came against the backdrop of several actions and events which could adversely impact these populations in the immediate, near, and long-term future: (1) the proposed reduction in the number of refugees to be admitted by the United States from 110,000 to 50,000 a year, including a 120-day shutdown of the US refugee program; (2) the one-year-old agreement between the European Union and Turkey to halt Syrian and other refugee groups from migrating to and entering Europe; (3) the ongoing war against the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), most notably in the fight for the city of Mosul and surrounding villages in northern Iraq; and (4) the ongoing persecution of religious minorities in the region, including Christian groups. Overall, the delegation found that, despite heroic work by international nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) and agencies in the region, including refugee protection organizations, the humanitarian need of refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs) far outweigh the support given to them by the international community. In fact, the world community appears to be withdrawing its support, rather than increasing it.1 The following findings and recommendations from the mission are based on the delegation’s conversations with actors in the region, including refugees and displaced persons, care providers, representatives of the Catholic Church, their aid agencies, and United Nations (UN) officials.
Topic:: Migration, Religion, Refugee Issues, European Union, ISIS, Displacement, NGOs, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Europe, Iran, Turkey, Israel, and Syria

4553. The “Right to Remain Here” as an Evolving Component of Global Refugee Protection: Current Initiatives and Critical Questions

Author:: Daniel Kanstroom
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:: Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:: This article considers the relationship between two human rights discourses (and two specific legal regimes): refugee and asylum protection and the evolving body of international law that regulates expulsions and deportations. Legal protections for refugees and asylum seekers are, of course, venerable, well-known, and in many respects still cherished, if challenged and perhaps a bit frail. Anti-deportation discourse is much newer, multifaceted, and evolving. It is in many respects a young work in progress. It has arisen in response to a rising tide of deportations, and the worrisome development of massive, harsh deportation machinery in the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Mexico, Australia, and South Africa, among others. This article’s main goal is to consider how these two discourses do and might relate to each other. More specifically, it suggests that the development of procedural and substantive rights against removal — as well as rights during and after removal — aids our understanding of the current state and possible future of the refugee protection regime. The article’s basic thesis is this: The global refugee regime, though challenged both theoretically and in practice, must be maintained and strengthened. Its historical focus on developing criteria for admission into safe states, on protections against expulsion (i.e., non-refoulement), and on regimes of temporary protection all remain critically important. However, a focus on other protections for all noncitizens facing deportation is equally important. Deportation has become a major international system that transcends the power of any single nation-state. Its methods have migrated from one regime to another; its size and scope are substantial and expanding; its costs are enormous; and its effects frequently constitute major human rights violations against millions who do not qualify as refugees. In recent years there has been increasing reliance by states on generally applicable deportation systems, led in large measure by the United States’ radical 25 year-plus experiment with large-scale deportation. Europe has also witnessed a rising tide of deportation, some of which has developed in reaction to European asylum practices. Deportation has been facilitated globally (e.g., in Australia) by well-funded, efficient (but relatively little known) intergovernmental idea sharing, training, and cooperation. This global expansion, standardization, and increasing intergovernmental cooperation on deportation has been met by powerful — if in some respects still nascent — human rights responses by activists, courts, some political actors, and scholars. It might seem counterintuitive to think that emerging ideas about deportation protections could help refugees and asylum seekers, as those people by definition often have greater rights protections both in admission and expulsion. However, the emerging anti-deportation discourses should be systematically studied by those interested in the global refugee regime for three basic reasons. First, what Matthew Gibney has described as “the deportation turn” has historically been deeply connected to anxiety about asylum seekers. Although we lack exact figures of the number of asylum seekers who have been subsequently expelled worldwide, there seems little doubt that it has been a significant phenomenon and will be an increasingly important challenge in the future. The two phenomena of refugee/asylum protections and deportation, in short, are now and have long been linked. What has sometimes been gained through the front door, so to speak, may be lost through the back door. Second, current deportation human rights discourses embody creative framing models that might aid constructive critique and reform of the existing refugee protection regime. They tend to be more functionally oriented, less definitional in terms of who warrants protection, and more fluid and transnational. Third, these discourses offer important specific rights protections that could strengthen the refugee and asylum regime, even as we continue to see weakening state support for the basic 1951/1967 protection regime. This is especially true in regard to the extraterritorial scope of the (deporting) state’s obligations post-deportation. This article particularly examines two initiatives in this emerging field: The International Law Commission’s Draft Articles on the Expulsion of Aliens and the draft Declaration on the Rights of Expelled and Deported Persons developed through the Boston College Post-Deportation Human Rights Project (of which the author is a co-director). It compares their provisions to the existing corpus of substantive and procedural protections for refugees relating to expulsion and removal. It concludes with consideration of how these discourses may strengthen protections for refugees while also helping to develop more capacious and protective systems in the future.
Topic:: Human Rights, International Cooperation, Border Control, Refugees, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Africa, United States, Europe, France, South Africa, Germany, Australia, Mexico, and Global Focus

4554. Matching Systems for Refugees

Author:: Will Jones and Alexander Teytelboym
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:: Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:: Design of matching systems between refugees and states or local areas is emerging as one of the most promising solutions to problems in refugee resettlement. We describe the basics of two-sided matching theory used in a number of allocation problems, such as school choice, where both sides need to agree to the match. We then explain how these insights can be applied to international refugee matching in the context of the European Union and examine how refugee matching might work within the United Kingdom, Canada, and the United States.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Refugees, and Resettlement
Political Geography:: United States, United Kingdom, Europe, Canada, and North America

4555. Exported as a Commodity: North Korean Workers Officially Dispatched Overseas

Author:: Greg Scarlatoiu
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: North Korea officially dispatches over 60,000 workers to a minimum of 20 countries in Asia, Africa, Europe, and the Middle East. The regime confiscates much of the USD 200 million earned by these workers annually. Despite the known exploitation and hardship, North Koreans continue to covet these positions, which provide rare opportunities to spend time outside the world’s most isolated dictatorial regime and send small amounts of money to their families at home. Only those deemed loyal to the regime as measured by North Korea’s songbun system have access to these jobs. Even those with “good songbun” frequently bribe government officials to secure one of the few positions available. Once overseas, workers labor under harsh and dangerous conditions that border on slavery. North Korea’s pervasive security apparatus continues to survey all activities while spouses and children serve as de facto hostages to prevent defections. The Kim Family Regime’s dispatch of workers amounts to exporting its subjects as a commodity. Efforts to address this issue must be based on applicable international standards. Governments bound by international agreements should first seek redress, as difficult as it may be, before terminating the contracts that cover North Korea’s overseas workers.
Topic:: Human Rights, Labor Issues, Economy, and UN Security Council
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Middle East, Asia, and North Korea

4556. Navigating the Unknown: Barriers to Evidence-Based Defence and Security Policy in the European Union

Author:: Benedict Wilkinson, Erin Montague, and Maria Giulia Amadio Viceré
Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The International Spectator
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: At a time when Europe faces numerous crises, there is a real need for rigorous evidence to underpin effective policymaking. However, a gap between academia and policy creates clear obstacles in the use of evidence in policymaking. Many of these enduring obstacles are manifest in the inherent differences between separate communities: academics have difficulty communicating research in an applicable manner, and policymakers, in turn, tend to focus on operational motivations. The gap widens considerably when foreign, security and defence policy within the complex institutional structures of the European Union is considered. In addition to these well known barriers to evidence-based policy, there are two more obstacles in the defence and security space: sovereignty and dispersed decision-making. A dialogue of best practices must be opened up to broker knowledge in the EU context.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Academia
Political Geography:: Europe and European Union

4557. he Economic forces of victory versus those of defeat: The case of the Greek-Turkish war (1919-1922).

Author:: Ioannis Salavrakos
Publication Date:: 09-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
Institution:: Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
Abstract:: The intellectual aspiration of the paper is to cast light on one of the most neglected conflicts in history, that of the Greek-Turkish war of 1919-1922. The paper analyses the Greek defeat pointing out that it was the outcome of the following factors: 1) economic factors, 2) tactical errors at the war theatre, 3) inability to have the support of Great Powers. The paper also highlights the Turkish strengths as opposed to Greek weaknesses
Topic:: Diplomacy, War, Economy, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Greece, Asia, and Mediterranean

4558. The Extent and Effects of German-Boer Collaboration During the First World War: A Comprehensive and Chronological Analysis

Author:: Christian De Jager
Publication Date:: 09-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
Institution:: Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
Abstract:: The Boer Rebellion of 1914 provides a fascinating example of how ethno-linguistic bonds can directly influence the development and formation of pragmatic military and political alliances. What had begun in the late nineteenth century as reciprocal perceptions of shared ethnic heritage had, by the fall of 1914, developed into an official military and political alliance between the German Empire and the Boers of South Africa. Contributing to scholarship in colonial military and cultural history, this essay offers an original interpretation of the often misrepresented and under-studied extent and effects of German-Boer collaboration during the First World War. The author makes use of sources in English, Afrikaans and German to provide a comprehensive account of the events, concluding that German-Boer collaboration was remarkably extensive and ultimately decisive for the course of the South-West Africa campaign and demonstrating the important link between military decision-making and cultural and political structures.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Alliance, and Cultural Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, South Africa, and Germany

4559. The Middle East and Europe in These Turbulent Times

Author:: Genci Mucaj
Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council of American Ambassadors
Abstract:: A few years ago, it would have been difficult to imagine the regional transformation underway in the Middle East. From the Arab Spring to the rise of ISIS, to a catastrophic Syrian war, we see a Middle East in turmoil and crisis. While the region’s geopolitical map varies, the root causes of conflict remain the same. What Is Pan Arabism, Sunni Islam and Shi’ism? In the early 1960s, Pan Arabism led by President Gamal Abdel Nasser of Egypt attempted to unite Egypt and Syria as well as other Arab countries in one Pan Arab Union where member nations would be linked by a common language and culture despite differences in their respective religious beliefs. The failure of this noble effort, I believe, resulted in the beginning of radical Islam. Arabism’s secular ideology that aimed to bring together people of all faiths in a modern Arabic society faced strong opposition from traditional Islam. The Islamic conservative backlash was especially acute in tribal societies and led to the creation of a movement which became known as political Islam. In subsequent years, Arab countries suffered deep socio-economic and political crises. Rapid population growth[1] and a rural exodus in favor of large cities overwhelmed housing, employment and other resources, leading to social dislocation, instability and political radicalization. The radicalization of Sunni Muslims became a defensive tool against other religions and sectarianism. Individual Sunni scholars put their emphasis on incorporating Sharia law in all forms of government whereby their Holy Book would be the sole political manifesto. This action created constant institutional ambiguity as there was no recognized clerical religious authority to decide on specific matters of governance. This vacuum allowed many Sunni organizations, militants, self-proclaimed caliphs and radicalized groups such as ISIS, al-Qaeda, Al Nusra and other lesser known groups to impose their own view of Sharia. While the Sunnis do not have one supreme authority figure who sets the moral tone, the Shi’ites do. In the Shi’ite denomination, there is one supreme religious leader who unites all Shi’ites together, with Iran as its foremost state and Khomeini as the supreme, undisputed leader. Iran Iran’s sphere of influence in the Shi’ite world extends from the Strait of Hormuz with Houthis in Yemen, to Lebanon with Hezbollah, to Iraq and Syria. Shi’ite radicals put their emphasis on the character of the ruler who oversees the implementation of Sharia law. Foreign fighters who support Bashar al-Assad in Syria are sponsored by Iran, come in large numbers from Afghanistan and include other Shi’ites from countries that were once part of the former Soviet Union. Syria is extremely important to Iran. It links Tehran with Hezbollah in Lebanon, and it closes the circle of influence in the region, making Iran a regional superpower. Besides the manpower Iran supplies for the war in Syria, it is estimated that Iran has spent nearly $1 billion in cash to prop up the Assad regime. Lifting the embargo and applying the 5+1 format conditions in the Iran Nuclear Agreement will make Iran economically viable once again. The Agreement is seen as a victory for Iran and its domestic policy, but it will have absolutely no effect in changing Iran’s policy in the region. Under no circumstances would Iran allow Assad to lose Syria, and that’s where old partners as well as adversaries have found common ground. Last August, Russian aircraft conducted raids in Syria after launching from Iran’s Hamedan military base, sending an important message to the West about this new/old alliance. Turkey, the Refugee Crisis and the European Union Iran’s new role in global geopolitics has implications for another key player in the region—Turkey. Turkey’s foreign policy and its international influence has waned as Ankara is faced with growing domestic violence. The ongoing terrorist threats in Turkey are not only from the Kurdish separatist movement and its Syrian PDY arm but are also from a faction of a radical group that deserted the Assad Army known as the Syrian Liberation Army (SLA). The SLA was originally supported by Turkey, a few European Union (EU) member nations and the Gulf States with the aim of getting rid of Assad. In part because of these domestic concerns, Turkey failed to recognize Russian and Iranian power-sharing ambitions in the region. The influence of Iran in the Shi’ite world and Russia’s interests in the region cannot be underestimated. New geopolitical alliances and the refugee crisis in Europe have created a serious dilemma. The European Union’s underlying principles have been called into question. Dealing with the influx of refugees fleeing war-torn areas goes beyond borders. The lack of a unifying foreign and defense policy will remain an EU challenge for the foreseeable future. Moreover, Turkey and Greece and other countries whose Mediterranean shores have accepted waves of refugees cannot face these challenges alone. Viewing the refugee crises as a regional issue is a mistake. This crisis is certainly a global concern. The European Union is now desperately trying to convince Turkey to shoulder more of the burden even though Turkey has been housing over 2.5 million refugees since the beginning of the Syrian civil war. Europe and the whole world were transfixed last year, watching hundreds of thousands of desperate people crossing mountains, rivers and iron fences that were built across Europe. Most of these refugees ended up living in tents provided by the Turkish government. Turkish concerns about the plight of the refugees, however, fell upon deaf ears. This early warning of a pending humanitarian crisis was something that EU leaders failed to understand. By closing its borders, the European Union will not resolve the refugee crisis. It may, in fact, lead to bigger problems. Conflicts must be tackled at their origin. The European Union must find a way to balance its economic and security concerns with its inherent humanitarian obligation to help alleviate the suffering of immigrants who have walked thousands of miles in order to reach southeast Europe. Turkey and the European Union have serious issues when it comes to Turkey’s demand for nine billion euros to keep the refugees inside its borders. It certainly would cost the European Union less to have Turkey become a full EU member rather than continuing to deal with mounting pressure from the influx of refugees from the Middle East and beyond. Security is a global issue and cannot be handled in isolation. Europe is stronger, safer and bigger with Turkey and the Balkans inside its structures rather than outside. There is no better solution for these turbulent times than a strong and unified European Union. While the United States is trying to take a leadership role to find a solution, there are numerous bumps in the road. The Iran deal is viewed by some as a good step to satisfy and control Iran’s nuclear ambitions, but it is not enough. Europe is still trying to come to grips with Britain’s departure from the European Union. Russia’s attempts to increase its sphere of influence, on the other hand, makes the landscape even more complicated unless each individual player in the West maintains its geopolitical influence in the region. The U.S. role in the crisis is vital, particularly in convincing the EU partners to stick together.
Topic:: Nuclear Power, European Union, ISIS, Sunni, and Shia
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

4560. The Role of Universities in Our Changing Economy

Author:: Jefferey Bleich
Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Ambassadors Review
Institution:: Council of American Ambassadors
Abstract:: We grew up in a century defined by the Second Industrial Revolution. Today, that revolution is being eclipsed by a Digital Revolution. The uncertainty that we are experiencing in every aspect of our society is the same disorientation that occurred between 1870 and 1910 when the first Industrial Revolution ended and a second one began. It eventually vaulted nations like America and Australia to the top of the world order. But it also produced the Gilded Age, labor unrest, mass migrations, the Great Depression and two world wars. That era is closing, and we are now experiencing the new great disruption that Silicon Valley promised. Digital technology—while solving crucial problems—is creating or compounding others. It has outstripped the capacity of government to control it and amplified the collapse of public confidence in democratic governments. It has inflamed rivalries between those who benefit and those who don’t. It has undermined standards—of altruism and of civility—that are necessary for us to find common ground. To appreciate this, we have to see where we’ve come from. A hundred and fifty years ago, we went through the same thing. Changes in technology revolutionized media, global integration and demographics. The changes were profound. In 1879, during a three-month period, both the electric light and a workable internal combustion engine were invented. Those two inventions alone produced over the next 40 years a dizzying number of new technologies. The telephone, phonograph, motion pictures, cars, airplanes, elevators, X-rays, electric machinery, consumer appliances, highways, suburbs and supermarkets—all were created in a 40-year burst from 1875 to 1915. Technology fundamentally transformed how people live. We’ve known for a while that the structures created by this Second Industrial Revolution were running their course, at least in advanced economies, and that it was being replaced by a new revolution, the digital revolution. Recently, the pace of these advances has started to build exponentially, and the pressure has been mounting. Everyone who has had to throw out their CD player for a DVD player for an iPod for an iPhone for Spotify knows what I mean. Further, the pace at which our world is being changed just keeps accelerating. Every year a new massive theory of disruption emerges: “the digital economy,” “the social network,” “the Internet of things,” “sharing economy” and “big data.” Last year, “machine learning”—where machines teach themselves things we do not know—was the buzzword. The word in Silicon Valley this year is “singularity”—where our species itself is altered by technology (gene-editing, bionics, artificial intelligence), creating a new hybrid species.
Topic:: Economics, Education, Digital Economy, Higher Education, and Digital Revolution
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, Australia, and North America

4561. How Ukraine Views Russia and the West

Author:: Steven Pifer
Publication Date:: 09-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Ambassadors Review
Institution:: Council of American Ambassadors
Abstract:: Following the Soviet Union’s collapse, Ukraine and Russia maintained relations that at times were testy, but their differences largely appeared manageable. That changed in 2014, when the Kremlin used military force to seize Crimea and then supported armed separatism in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donbas. As a result, attitudes within Ukraine toward Russia have hardened to a considerable degree, and the appeal of Western institutions such as the European Union and NATO has grown.
Topic:: NATO, Imperialism, European Union, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

4562. Twenty Years of the U.S.-Romanian Strategic Partnership

Author:: Hans Kiemm
Publication Date:: 09-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Ambassadors Review
Institution:: Council of American Ambassadors
Abstract:: When Bill Clinton came to Bucharest in 1997, he made history as the first U.S. President to visit Romania since the fall of communism. Speaking to the Romanian public, he announced, “Your President and I have agreed to establish a strategic partnership between our nations, a partnership important to America because Romania is important to America—important in your own right and important as a model in this difficult part of the world. Romania can show the people of this region and, indeed, people throughout the world that there is a better way than fighting and division and repression. It is cooperation and freedom and peace. Our friendship will endure the test of time. As long as you proceed down democracy’s road, America will walk by your side.” This year marks the 20th anniversary of that U.S.-Romania Strategic Partnership, which President Donald Trump, during a meeting with President Klaus Iohannis this past June in Washington, said is now “stronger than ever.” The Partnership is unique because it is not based upon any written agreement, treaty, or compact, but by mutual respect and understanding, strengthened continuously over time. It is a friendship based on shared values and aspirations, including democracy, freedom, respect for human rights, and the rule of law. While usually invoked when speaking of government-to-government bilateral relations, the Partnership extends to people-to-people ties as well. More than 90 percent of the Romanian public rates relations with the United States as good or very good, and overall, associations between the two countries expand far beyond diplomatic obligation.
Topic:: NATO, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, and Diaspora
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, Eastern Europe, Romania, and North America

4563. Alexander Van der Bellen, President of Austria

Author:: Alexander Van der Bellen
Publication Date:: 09-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Columbia University World Leaders Forum
Abstract:: His Excellency Dr. Alexander Van der Bellen, Federal President of the Republic of Austria, addresses the Columbia University World Leaders Forum in Low Library.
Topic:: Climate Change, Human Rights, International Cooperation, International Affairs, and European Union
Political Geography:: New York, Europe, Austria, and European Union

4564. Andrej Plenković, Prime Minister of Croatia

Author:: Andre Plenković
Publication Date:: 09-2017
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Columbia University World Leaders Forum
Abstract:: His Excellency Andrej Plenković, Prime Minister of the Republic of Croatia, addresses the Columbia University World Leaders Forum at the Casa Italiana.
Topic:: International Cooperation, International Affairs, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:: Europe, Croatia, United States of America, and New York

4565. Brexit -- What Does It Mean for Ireland?

Author:: John Bruton
Publication Date:: 05-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Transatlantic Relations
Abstract:: Testimony by CTR Distinguished Fellow and former Irish Prime Minister John Bruton at the Seanad Special Select Committee on the UK’s Withdrawal from the European Union on Thursday, April 27 2017.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, Border Control, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, Ireland, and European Union

4566. Russia-China Relations and the West

Author:: Marcin Kaczmarski
Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Transatlantic Relations
Abstract:: This paper is part of CTR's Working Paper Series: "Russia and the West: Reality Check." U.S. domination in global politics provided a powerful incentive for the post-Cold War rapprochement between Russia and China. The worsening of Russia’s relations with the West since 2014 made Moscow even more willing to offer significant concessions to Beijing. However, closer Russian-Chinese cooperation predates the Russian-Western crisis over Ukraine and reaches back to the 2008-2009 global economic crisis. Even the growing power asymmetry has not dissuaded Moscow from deepening its cooperation with China. This challenged widespread Western expectations that Russia would be eager to cooperate with the West in order to compensate for China’s increasing advantage. Hence, a potential improvement of Russian-Western relations is highly unlikely to result in the weakening of Russian-Chinese ties
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Energy Policy, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Trump, and Alliance
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, and United States of America

4567. Belarus-West Relations: The New Normal

Author:: Dzianis Melyantsou
Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Transatlantic Relations
Abstract:: This paper is part of CTR's Working Paper Series: "Eastern Voices: Europe's East Faces an Unsettled West." The new geopolitical environment formed after the annexation of Crimea and the war in the Donbas, together with emerging threats and challenges, are pressing both Belarus and the West to revise their policies in the region as well as their relations with each other. In this new context, Belarus is seeking a more balanced foreign policy and, at least towards the Ukrainian crisis, a more neutral stance.
Topic:: International Relations, Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, War, Territorial Disputes, Foreign Aid, Sanctions, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Belarus, Crimea, United States of America, and European Union

4568. Transparency and Rule of Law as Key Priorities for Armenia

Author:: Stepan Grigoryan and Hasmik Grigoryan
Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Transatlantic Relations
Abstract:: This paper is part of CTR's Working Paper Series: "Eastern Voices: Europe's East Faces an Unsettled West." With the growing tension between East and West, and with the rejection by Russia of common international rules, the question how the post-Soviet states should construct their foreign relations remains of utmost importance. Armenia, a landlocked country in the South Caucasus, has yet to accomplish its transition from socialism to democracy and market economy. Moreover, efforts along these lines have regressed, and the authorities do little to implement reforms or to establish a healthy system of checks and balances. In recent months the country has been overwhelmed by protests. The authorities neither address domestic problems nor satisfy protestor demands. Instead the Armenian government frequently resorts to disproportionate use of police forces against peaceful protestors. With political prisoners and hundreds of detained civil activists, journalists and politicians, it will be impossible to build an independent and prosperous country. Armenia has a rich history and culture, but at the same time it has experienced dark historical periods. The Armenian Genocide of 1915 and the unresolved Nagorno-Karabakh conflict shape Armenian identity. However, such historical issues have been instrumentalized by the Armenian government. Instead of building the future, Armenian authorities emphasize the past. Policies based on past grievances lead the Armenian government to become more and more dependent on Russia. Armenia needs to tackle corruption, falsified elections, a corrupt judiciary and many other problems -- and Western partners whose efforts are based on democratic values, free and fair elections, and respect towards human rights have a crucial role to play. This chapter offers background on Armenia's relations with various actors, historical matters that shape Armenian identity, and the failure and lack of will to improve the country's current situation. It then discusses the role of the West and its importance for Armenia. We seek to answer why Armenia slowed down its reform efforts, what the West needs to do to improve the situation in Armenia.
Topic:: Civil Society, Corruption, Genocide, International Cooperation, Reform, Political Prisoners, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Eastern Europe, Armenia, and European Union

4569. Moldova: What it Should Expect from the West and What it Should Expect from Itself

Author:: Hans Martin Sieg
Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Transatlantic Relations
Abstract:: This paper is part of CTR's Working Paper Series: "Eastern Voices: Europe's East Faces an Unsettled West." Since Moldova's November 2014 election, the country's image has changed drastically from the “success story” of the EU´s Eastern Partnership to that of a “captured state.” Moldova's politics continue to be defined by corruption and vested interests, which take advantage of weak state institutions and public administration, an ineffective judiciary and law enforcement agencies. This environment has enabled hostile takeovers of financial companies, often through concealed offshore operations, for criminal purposes, money-laundering schemes and a spectacular banking fraud, which was uncovered in autumn 2014. Low incomes have prompted hundreds of thousands of Moldovans to leave the country in search of a better life. Rivalries for political power, control over institutions, and economic assets have generated growing crises within different ruling coalitions, resulting in rapid changeover in governments, the break-up of major political parties and the formation of new parliamentary majorities with precarious democratic legitimacy. All of these factors have subjected Moldova to an unrelenting series of governmental, economic, financial and social crises since early 2015. The deeper causes of these crises can be traced to much earlier developments, however, and are deeply rooted in local structures.
Topic:: International Relations, Corruption, Development, Economics, Reform, Elections, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Moldova, and European Union

4570. What Ukraine Should Demand of Itself and from the West

Author:: Natalie A. Jaresko
Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Transatlantic Relations
Abstract:: This paper is part of CTR's Working Paper Series: "Eastern Voices: Europe's East Faces an Unsettled West." Once again, the world is grappling with historic challenges, as it did when the Soviet Union fell in 1991, and once more, Ukraine is at the forefront of these challenges. The Kremlin’s attempts to destroy Ukraine’s European aspirations is simply one of Russia's many challenges to the post-World War II international liberal order. The actions of the Kremlin -- be they in Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, and Syria; in the U.S. electoral process; or in the funding of far-right and far-left political parties throughout Europe -- have but one purpose: to destroy the transatlantic partnership and the principles of the post-World War II order and peace. Ukraine is simply one of the battlegrounds, but it is a key because it is in Europe. Unity of the transatlantic partnership and of the democratic nations is critical. Unity of support for the Ukrainian transition process is a serious part of this battle, because Ukraine’s successful democratic, rule-of-law based transformation is key to ensuring a Europe whole, free and at peace.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Territorial Disputes, Economy, and Protests
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Crimea

4571. Intelligence Oversight: Ensuring accountable intelligence within a framework of democratic governance

Author:: Ronja Harder
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:: This SSR Backgrounder explains how the principles of democratic control and oversight can be applied to intelligence services. Oversight of intelligence matters, because intelligence services can pose a threat to democratic governance, the rule of law and human rights, even while acting in the public interest. Applying the principle of good security sector governance through a system of democratic control and oversight ensures intelligence services are both effective and accountable while providing security for the state and for its people. This SSR Backgrounder answers the following questions: Why is democratic oversight of intelligence important? How does democratic oversight of intelligence work? What are typical challenges for democratic oversight of intelligence? How does internal control of intelligence contribute to good governance? How does executive control of intelligence contribute to good governance? What role does parliament play in democratic oversight of intelligence? How is the justice system involved in the control and oversight of intelligence? How can public oversight apply to intelligence?
Topic:: Human Rights, Intelligence, Governance, and Law Enforcement
Political Geography:: Geneva, Europe, and Global Focus

4572. Monitoring Ukraine's Security Governance Challenges: Proceedings from the Second International Conference “Security Sector Governance: The Role of Democratic Institutions & International Best Practices” 16-17 March 2016, Kyiv, Ukraine

Author:: Philipp Fluri, Oleksiy Melnyk, James Sherr, Oleksiy Melnyk, Mans Hanssen, Oleksandr Lytvynenko, Mykola Sungurovskiy, Simon Lunn, Claudia Micciche, Karina Priajina, and Nazli Yildirim Schierkolk
Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:: This publication offers the proceedings of the Conference II "Security Sector Governance: The Role of Democratic Institutions & International Best Practices". Following the Conference I findings, participants elaborated current challenges related to the role of democratic institutions in the Ukrainian Security Sector Governance and worked out solutions based on possible accommodation of best international practices in Ukrainian realities. This publication offers presentations of the key speakers and the summaries of the Working Group discussions. General assessments, conclusions and proposals are those of the participants and do not necessarily coincide with the positions of DCAF, the Razumkov Centre or the official position of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Netherlands. Publication was made possible in the framework of the joint DCAF-Razumkov Centre Project "Monitoring Ukraine's Security Governance Challenges" sponsored by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Netherlands.
Topic:: Security, Territorial Disputes, Reform, Conflict, and State
Political Geography:: Europe and Ukraine

4573. Ombuds Institutions for the Armed Forces: Selected Case Studies

Author:: William McDermott, Kim Piaget, Lada Sadiković, Mary McFadyen, Riina Turtio, Tamar Pataraia, Aida Alymbaeva, Bogdan Kryklyvenko, and Susan Atkins
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Case Study
Institution:: Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:: Ombuds institutions for the armed forces are key actors in establishing good governance and implementing democratic controls of the security sector. These institutions are tasked with protecting the human rights and fundamental freedoms of armed forces personnel, as well as providing oversight and preventing maladministration of the armed forces. This publication highlights good practices and lessons learned in seven case studies of ombuds institutions for the armed forces from the following OSCE states: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Canada, Finland, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, Ukraine, United Kingdom.
Topic:: Security, Human Rights, Governance, and Armed Forces
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, Central Asia, Ukraine, Canada, Finland, Kyrgyzstan, Georgia, North America, and Bosnia and Herzegovina

4574. Welcome Home in a Crisis: Effects of Return Migration on the Non-migrants' Wages and Employment

Author:: Ricardo Hausmann and Ljubica Nedelkoska
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: Over the past few decades, migration from developing to developed countries was often viewed as 'brain drain', as talented workers were forced out of their home countries due to lack of competitive opportunities. The population that left these countries and settled in the more economically advanced parts of the world have, over time, acquired financial capital and built social networks within host countries. Hence, while the home countries were still suffering from the scarcity of knowhow, significant shares of their populations began to actively engage in more productive economies. It seems that, through migration, developing countries had unexpectedly created significant networks of human and financial capital abroad. But are these foreign networks transferring knowhow back to their home countries? It turns out that those same reasons that induced the economic migration in the first place, often make it difficult for migrants to engage afterwards. What would happen, however, if a large proportion of these diasporas was forced to return back to their home country - would that lead to knowhow transfer? Our study investigates the impact of such an abrupt return migration wave between Greece and Albania.
Topic:: Development, Migration, Labor Issues, Developing World, and Economy
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, Greece, and Albania

4575. Amendments to the Governance Structure of the Holy See and Canon Law during the European Migration Crisis

Author:: Lóránd Ujházi
Publication Date:: 12-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: Because of the current migration crisis the central organizations of the Catholic Church were forced to reflect upon more directly about the humanitarian, pastoral and policy aspects of the refugee issue. However, neither the annual speeches delivered by the pope at the annual World Day of Migrants and Refugees, nor other “ad hoc” communications by the representatives of the Holy See at multiple liturgical and diplomatic events led to any systematic legal and structural changes. These exhortations are not laws in the strict sense, instead they provide guidance to church organizations and pieces of advice for international and national authorities which must, by law, manage the whole migration crisis. The situation has changed with the emanation of a motu proprio titled Humanam progressionem on 31 August 2016, which led to the foundation of the new “Dicastery for Promoting Integral Human Development” inside the Vatican. This new document has amended the governance structure of the Holy See and other relevant regulations. In this paper we focus on the historical and political background which motivated the legislator to modify the existing legal framework. We analyze the new law and the new administrative system in the context of current Canon Law and its influence upon the operations of other Holy See offices.
Topic:: Religion, Refugee Crisis, Catholic Church, and Religious Law
Political Geography:: Europe and Vatican city

4576. Africa and the Politics of Possibility

Author:: Louis S. Segesvary
Publication Date:: 12-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: According to the IMF, the 2016 GDP per capita estimate for Eritrea was only $771 per annum; for Ethiopia $739; for Gambia $435; and for Nigeria, sub-Saharan Africa's most populous country with major petroleum reserves, it was $2,930, or around $244 a month. According to a comprehensive report prepared by the African Development Bank Group, the number of impoverished people in sub-Saharan Africa had doubled from 1981 to 1998, with the number of people living on less than US $1 per day in the region, "reaching 290 million in 1998, which is over 46% of the total population." According to the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations, in 2014/2015 some 153 million individuals in sub-Saharan Africa, about 26 percent of the population or one out of four individuals above 15 years of age, was "hungry but did not eat or went without eating for a whole day because there was not enough money or other resources for food." [...]a case can be made that all this aid has contributed to fostering a culture of dependency in which foreign aid grants become a form of entitlements that governments rely on to maintain a status quo, as opposed to attracting the type of private sector investments that grow economies.
Topic:: Development, Migration, Poverty, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:: Africa and Europe

4577. Angola – an ambassador’s daily diary

Author:: Antonio Pinto da France
Publication Date:: 10-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: Angola – O dia-a-dia de um embaixador Angola – an ambassador’s daily diary by Ambassador Antonio Pinto da France Edicao de Livros e Revistas, Lisbon 2004 (Translation by Ed Marks). I was the third Portuguese ambassador to Angola and therefore still able to bear witness to some aspects of the early days of independence. I was destined to live a period of Angolan history that will not reoccur. It seemed to me, therefore, that as in Guinea-Bissau, I had an obligation to bear testimony to this unique period.
Topic:: Diplomacy and Memoir
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Portugal, and Angola

4578. The Berlin Pulse 2017 (full issue)

Publication Date:: 11-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Körber-Stiftung
Abstract:: Dear Reader, Welcome to The Berlin Pulse! In the past years, calls for greater German international engagement were heard at many occasions. As Germany sets out for a new coalition experiment, the question is whether the new government will assume this responsibility, and how it will address international challenges. To succeed, a Chancellor Angela Merkel will have to reconcile the views of her coalition partners with expectations of Germany’s international partners. How much leeway does a new government have between international expectations and domestic constraints? The idea behind The Berlin Pulse is to guide policy-makers and experts on this fine line. To this end, prominent international authors such as Jens Stoltenberg and Mohammad Javad Zarif formulate their expectations for Germany on 2018’s most pressing issues. A representative survey commissioned by Körber Foundation in October 2017 contrasts their perspectives with German public opinion. We will publish The Berlin Pulse annually on the occasion of the Berlin Foreign Policy Forum, which we host together with the Federal Foreign Office. The contrast of domestic and international perspectives indicates what kind of foreign policy actor Germany can become. For example, while many foreign policy makers demand that Germany punches its weight on the international stage, Germans do not demonstrate the same enthusiasm: 52 percent prefer international restraint over increased engagement, a value similar to past years. As Timothy Garton Ash writes in his contribution on Germany’s role in the world, “there has been no historical caesura since 3 October 1990 large enough to justify talking about a ‘new’ Germany.” And while experts still discuss whether we are in a “post-Atlantic era”, the German population already seems to have reached a conclusion: 56 percent consider the relationship between the US and Germany to be somewhat or very bad, and a striking 88 percent would give a defense partnership with European states priority over the partnership with the US. In an interview for The Berlin Pulse, Condoleezza Rice stresses the importance of increased defense spending for the transatlantic relationship, yet 51 percent of Germans think spending should stay at current levels. Opinion polls are often snapshots. Yet, we have been conducting polls since 2014 and believe that continuity allows distinguishing between outliers and underlying characteristics of German public opinion on foreign policy. We particularly thank the Pew Research Center for fielding six joint questions on the transatlantic relationship in the US. The motto of our founder to “talk to each other rather than about each other” has guided Körber Foundation’s activities from the beginning. The Berlin Pulse shall gather representative voices from within and outside Germany to illustrate and acknowledge the potential and limits of Germany’s role in the world. We believe this is a prerequisite for developing a viable and successful foreign policy. Behind every successful publication, there is a dedicated editor. Thanks to the acumen and persistence of Luise Voget, Program Manager at our International Affairs Department, the idea of a ‘guidebook to German foreign policy’ has been molded into 60 pages of data, analysis and opinion: The Berlin Pulse. I wish you a good read. Thomas Paulsen
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, International Cooperation, International Affairs, and Military Intervention
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

4579. Study and Reports on the VAT Gap in the EU-28 Member States: 2017 Final Report

Author:: Grzegorz Poniatowski, Mikhail Bonch-Osmolovsky, and Misha V. Belkindas
Publication Date:: 10-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: CASE prepared a new study for the European Commission on the VAT Gap in the European Union in 2015. The figures offer an important snapshot of the problems of collecting VAT in the EU and what needs to be done to improve revenues and fight tax fraud. During 2015, the overall VAT that should have been collected in EU Member States grew by about 4.2 %, while collected VAT revenues rose by 5.8 %. As a result, the overall VAT Gap in the EU Member States decreased by about €8.7 billion in absolute terms, down to €151.5 billion. As a percentage, the overall VAT Gap decreased by 2.1 % to 12.7 %. In 2015, the highest VAT Gap was recorded in Romania with a figure of 37.18 %. In absolute terms, the highest VAT Gap of €35 billion was in Italy. Overall, the VAT Gap decreased in most Member States, with the largest improvements noted in Malta, Romania and Spain. The VAT Gap measured in this study includes for the first time revenues emerging from new VAT rules for cross-border sales of e-services which came into force on 1 January 2015, following a Commission proposal. CASE's team was led by Grzegorz Poniatowski, Director of Fiscal Policy Studies, and composed of Mikhail Bonch-Osmolovskiy and Misha Belkindas.
Topic:: European Union, Tax Systems, Fiscal Policy, and VAT
Political Geography:: Europe, Poland, and European Union

4580. Mutual Learning for Reducing Tax Gaps in V4 Countries and Ukraine Peer Country Paper: Poland

Author:: Iakov Frizis, Krzysztof Głowacki, and Katarzyna Mirecka
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: Tax administration has been improving in Poland in recent years. The country moved from a ranking of 128 to a ranking of 47 in the Paying Taxes indicator of the World Bank’s Doing Business report between its 2012 and 2017 editions. However, compliance with taxes still requires 271 man hours, compared to the European Union (EU) & European Free Trade Association (EFTA) average of 173 man-hours and to the top Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) performer Estonia’s 81 man-hours. Polish tax legislation has been described as complex by some observers and not overly complex by other observers, while many emphasise that it is improving at a good pace. The paper summarizes knowledge on tax gaps in Poland with respect to PIT, CIT, VAT, and excise. An introduction to the Polish tax system is given, trends in tax collectability and estimates of the tax gaps are discussed, and methods of combating tax evasion and avoidance are reviewed. The paper has been written as part of the project “Mutual Learning for Reducing Tax Gaps in V4 Countries and Ukraine” co-financed by the Visegrad Fund in the years 2016-2017.
Topic:: Financial Crimes, Tax Systems, Free Trade, Fiscal Policy, and VAT
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, Poland, and European Union

4581. Mutual Learning for Reducing Tax Gaps in V4 Countries and Ukraine Final Report

Author:: Iakov Frizis and Krzysztof Głowacki
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: ax gaps, or the differences between tax amounts that are due by the taxpayers and the amounts that are actually collected by the state, remain a challenge for many European Union (EU) Member States, including for the V4 countries. Tax gaps also present a formidable challenge for Ukraine, which is currently reforming many aspects of its financial and legal systems. To help increase awareness about tax compliance and exchange knowledge on the state-of-the-art methods used to combat tax gaps, the project Mutual Learning for Reducing Tax Gaps in V4 Countries and Ukraine has been implemented. The paper is a summary of the exchange of knowledge and experience that took place in the course of the project co-financed by the Visegrad Fund in the years 2016–2017.
Topic:: Economics, Tax Systems, Fiscal Policy, and VAT
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, Poland, and European Union

4582. Quality and cost-effectiveness in long-term care and dependency prevention: the Polish policy landscape

Author:: Stanisława Golinowska and Agnieszka Sowa-Kofta
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: With the population ageing the development of sustainable long-term care institutions is of great importance in many European countries. In Poland, currently dominant, traditional and family based care will become insufficient with increasing cohorts of older people. Presented paper discusses recent developments in long-term care policy in the country. Long-term care institutions are separated in the two sectors, with little field for cooperation and coordination of activities. Over the past years policy addressing ageing related problems was developed, focusing on the active ageing instruments. Dependency prevention and active ageing are among goals of national policies formulated separately in the health and social sector. Information policy and monitoring long-term care services’ provision remains insufficient. Coordination of activities mainly takes place at the local level. Local governments and non-governmental organizations, often cooperating with representatives of older people, are active in providing services to older people in community and often incorporating innovative solutions in care.
Topic:: Demographics, Health, Social Policy, Labor Policies, Public Policy, and Aging
Political Geography:: Europe, Poland, and European Union

4583. Potential impact of financial innovation on financial services and monetary policy

Author:: Marek Dabrowski
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: The recent wave of financial innovation, particularly innovation related to the application of information and communication technologies, poses a serious challenge to the financial industry’s business model in both its banking and non-banking components. It has already revolutionised financial services and, most likely, will continue to do so in the future. If not responded to adequately and timely by regulators, it may create new risks to financial stability, as occurred before the global financial crisis of 2007-2009. However, financial innovation will not seriously affect the process of monetary policymaking and is unlikely to undermine the ability of central banks to perform their price stability mission.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Environment, Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, Economic Growth, Innovation, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe, Global Focus, and European Union

4584. Social harmonization and labor market performance in Europe

Author:: Katarzyna Mirecka and Izabela Styczynska
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: The paper aims to assess the impact of selected elements of social harmonization on labor market performance in the European Union among two groups of workers—the total working population and the elderly. The aim is to examine whether upward changes in labor taxes affect employment, unemployment, and inactivity rates in the European Union. The descriptive empirical evidence shows that the level of labor taxation varies significantly across European countries and the introduced changes might affect national markets differently. The Arellano-Bond dynamic panel data regression shows that an increase in the tax wedge, as an element of a social harmonization process, has a very weak impact on labor market performance in the European Union. The impact is statistically significant and negative only for the elderly (i.e. the population aged 50+). Empirical analysis suggests that upward social convergence might negatively affect the employment of the most disfavored groups in the labor market, such as the elderly. It suggests that social harmonization focused on reducing the tax wedge would have favorable effects on labor market performance, especially among the most disadvantaged groups. This report was prepared within a research project entitled “SocialBoost – effective measures of social harmonization as a boost for employability in times of demographic changes”, which received funding under the Nordic Council of Ministers’ Programme for NGOs in the Baltic Sea Region.
Topic:: Demographics, Labor Issues, Social Policy, Tax Systems, and Social Security
Political Geography:: Europe and European Union

4585. Female Brain Drain in Poland and Germany: New Perspectives for Research

Author:: Karolina Beaumont, Matthias Kullas, Matthias Dauner, Izabela Styczynska, and Paul Lirette
Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: This report provides an analysis of the issues related to female brain drain between Poland and Germany in the years 1989-2015: female and male migration patterns during specific time periods, the challenges of female migration, the emigration of highly-skilled individuals in Poland and Germany, as well as the issues regarding brain drain from a gender perspective. Global female migration is a topic frequently studied in academic literature; however, the topic of female brain drain is one that has long been ignored by academic research. This gap in research on female brain drain is closely related to a significant lack of relevant quantitative data, and, consequently, has led to gaps in policymaking. The aim of this report is to gather all available information on female brain drain and its impact on labour markets, gender equality, female migration, and human capital, while noting the gaps in data and policymaking. A further objective of this report is to highlight the issues that are important for policymaking, as well as to propose adequate polic recommendations. The report aims to provide a current and comprehensive analysis of female brain drain in Poland and in Germany – two neighbouring countries, with complex histories of population migration – as well as an analysis of the economic and societal consequences of this phenomenon for both countries. The publication was prepared within the project “Brain drain/brain gain: Polish-German challenges and perspectives - Focus on the gender aspects of labour migration from 1989” with financial support from the Polish-German Foundation for Science and The Foundation for Polish-German Cooperation.
Topic:: Demographics, Education, Gender Issues, Migration, Labor Issues, Brain Drain, Women, Inequality, and Social Policy
Political Geography:: Europe, Poland, Germany, and European Union

4586. Pension reform in Belarus in the shadow of Social Europe: vulnerability issues of people aged 50+ and points for improvement

Author:: Sierž Naŭrodski
Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: The policy brief by Sierž Naŭrodski presents a review of potential effects of parametric pension reform in Belarus starting in 2017 for the population aged 50 and more in terms of unemployment, alcohol consumption, and poverty. It concludes that, despite the fact that raising the retirement age is overdue in Belarus to address demographic challenges, it may have a negative impact on the quality of life of people close to retirement age as well as a poorer GDP effect within current conditions on the labor market in Belarus. The paper presents a set of public policy improvement directions in Belarus, which could help mitigating vulnerability of the group 50+ during the pension reform.
Topic:: Demographics, Labor Issues, Social Policy, Labor Policies, Public Policy, and Aging
Political Geography:: Europe and Belarus

4587. Social harmonization in the eyes of Polish stakeholders – in search of consensus

Author:: Karolina Beaumont, Katarzyna Mirecka, and Izabela Styczynska
Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: Aspects of labor mobility and discrepancies in social benefits schemes in Member States became an urgent matter to address. Revision of the Posting of Workers Directive, the European Pillar of Social Rights and the European Mobility Package were aimed at introducing more harmonization within the EU countries. However, the EU propositions faced a strong resistance from some groups of stakeholders and Member States. Moreover, the debate has been evolving quickly given recent events such as the economic and migration crises and Brexit. CASE held a forum with various Polish stakeholders, where CASE experts gathered views on the future of social situation in the EU. They are all summarized in this Policy Brief. Main policy recommendations emphasize that proposed legislation is important for Poland, however it still needs more debate, since under current form certain policies might be harmful for many EU Member States. This policy brief was prepared within a research project entitled “SocialBoost – effective measures of social harmonization as a boost for employability in times of demographic changes”, which received funding under the Nordic Council of Ministers’ Programme for NGOs in the Baltic Sea Region.
Topic:: Demographics, Labor Issues, Social Policy, and Mobility
Political Geography:: Europe, Poland, and European Union

4588. Stabilization Policies and Structural Developments: Poland and the Crises of 1929 and 2008

Author:: Zbigniew Polański
Publication Date:: 12-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: This paper contrasts the impact of the 1929 and 2008 world crises on the Polish economy. Her much better performance during the recent crisis can be explained by two groups of factors: first, by very different stabilization policies and second, by distinct structural developments (resulting both from authorities' structural policies and spontaneous processes). It is emphasized that several factors responsible for Poland's superior performance during the 2008 crisis also contributed to her economic success vis-à-vis other European Union countries.
Topic:: Financial Crisis, Economic structure, Economic Growth, Global Financial Crisis, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe, Poland, and European Union

4589. The Future Development of EU Exports in a Global Context

Author:: Robert Stehrer, Roman Stöllinger, and Sandra Leitner
Publication Date:: 11-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: Global trade patterns are changing rapidly. Emerging economies are increasing their share of exports overall and intensifying competition in nearly all sectors. Using a gravity-based approach, this report examines the future profile of European Union (EU) world market shares at the aggregate and sectoral level. It further points towards the changing patterns of trade within the EU. Based on the results, some conclusions on EU industrial policy are drawn.
Topic:: Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Global Markets, Economic Growth, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe, Global Focus, and European Union

4590. The Relevance of Financial and Economic Factors for Determining Banking Risk across Europe

Author:: Renata Karkowska
Publication Date:: 11-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: The goal of this study is to identify empirically how country-level development, taking into account the financial and macroeconomic environment, affect the risk profiles of the banking sector in Europe. Through a dataset that covers 3,399 European banks spanning the period 1996-2011, and the methodology of panel regression, the empirical findings document the heterogeneity of banking risk determinants. I examine the implications of bank leverage that manifest itself as spreading and growing instability. The study contributes to and combines the different strands of literature and understanding of the importance of the links between the variables. It also contributes to the literature by focusing on a group of countries from Central and Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States that have not been studied before. The extended model provides a causal link between risk in the banking sector and the growth of the financial market and macroeconomy. I apply four measures of country-level development that are available in previous studies: share of foreign ownership in the banking sector; the financial freedom index; the real growth rate; and stock market capitalization. Using these measures, I obtain different results which highlight the fact that the effect of macroeconomic and financial development on banking sector risk-taking is ambiguous.
Topic:: Financial Markets, Economic Growth, Banks, Trade Liberalization, Macroeconomics, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, Central Europe, and European Union

4591. Domestic Cycles, Financial Cycles, and Policies. What Has Gone Wrong?

Author:: Daniel Daianu
Publication Date:: 11-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: The financial crisis and its ensuing effects have brought back into the limelight the issue of cycles and of policies which fuel or mitigate crises. Cognitive and operational models in economics and business are questioned. There is a specter of much lower economic growth in the industrialized world. Central banks are over-burdened. This makes central bankers’ lives much more complicated and obfuscates the boundaries between monetary policy and fiscal policy, especially when financial stability gets to center stage. New systemic risks show up in capital markets. The eurozone has escaped collapse owing to the European Central Bank’s extraordinary operations and large macro-imbalance corrections in its periphery, but major threats persist. This paper focuses on economic cycles and policies in an international (European) context. Attention is paid to linkages between domestic cycles and the European financial cycle, drivers of financial cycles, finance deregulation and systemic risks, ultra-low interest rates, the international policy regime, and global stability. The experience of European emerging economies is taken into account.
Topic:: Debt, Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, Economies, Economic Growth, Interest Rates, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:: Europe and European Union

4592. How Not to Get Stuck in the Middle Lessons for the Commonwealth of Independent States from Central and Eastern Europe

Author:: Jakub Zowczak and Kamil Pruchnik
Publication Date:: 09-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: The aim of this paper is to analyze how different models of transformation in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) increased or decreased the risk of being stuck in the middle-income trap (MIT). The key finding is that the CEE and CIS countries are, from a definition point of view, not materially at risk of the MIT as out of nine selected MIT definitions, none of the CEE or CIS countries were “stuck” more than three times. At the same time, the CEE countries are more at risk of falling into the MIT than the CIS countries; however this is because the CIS is a poorer region and is not near the lower MIT thresholds. The CEE countries had a better start at the beginning of the transformation and on average implemented a better set of transformation models; however, some CEE countries are now struggling to permanently join the advanced countries and CIS countries are, on average, far behind that. The literature review on transformation models and the analysis of the “jumps” in the World Bank ranking classification suggest that while the MIT is not a concern for CEE or CIS countries, in order to speed up convergence, CIS countries might consider more shocks and consistently following free market related approaches. The study fills a gap in the literature on the MIT which has thoroughly analyzed the Asian and Latin American countries but has provided little analysis of the CEE and CIS countries.
Topic:: Finance, Economic Growth, Economic Policy, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Europe

4593. The Influence of Economic Migration on the Polish Economy

Author:: Agata Górny, Paweł Kaczmarczyk, and Joanna Tyrowicz
Publication Date:: 11-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: In the ongoing public debate on economic migration to Poland, emotional statements, or those without any basis in data, often have the upper hand. But in order to speak rationally about Poland as a destination country for immigrants, it is necessary to fully understand the conditions – and in particular the weaknesses – of the Polish labor market. It’s also worth becoming aware of the scale of the processes being discussed. In the 149th mBank-CASE Seminar Proceedings, Joanna Tyrowicz analyzes whether immigration could be a significant labor market driver in Poland. Paweł Kaczmarczyk and Agata Górny discuss the structural consequences of the inflow of Ukrainian workers to the Polish labor market.
Topic:: Markets, Migration, Labor Issues, Immigration, and Economy
Political Geography:: Europe, Poland, and European Union

4594. More for less: What tax system for Poland?

Author:: Stanisław Gomułka, Jarosław Neneman, and Michał Myck
Publication Date:: 10-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: What are the challenges facing Poland’s economy and tax system over the next 20 years? What does the optimal tax system mean? Do we have high taxes in Poland? The goal of the publication is to initiate a discussion on the subject of a tax system for Poland, presenting a framework within which the current system should be analyzed and conclusions drawn about what changes are needed over the longer term. Professor Stanisław Gomułka, chief economist of the Business Centre Club, analyzes the challenges facing Poland’s economy and tax system over the next 20 years. Jarosław Neneman, an assistant professor at Łazarski University, presents the basic parameters for a planned academic research project on how to use the Polish tax system effectively. Michał Myck, director and board member of CenEA (the Center for Economic Analysis) describes the optimal characteristics of a tax system according to theory and the results of scholarly research, which of course also relates to the Polish tax system.
Topic:: Economics, Finance, Tax Systems, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:: Europe, Poland, and European Union

4595. How the European Commission and European countries fight VAT fraud

Author:: Kamil Olczykowski, Piotr Laskowski, Tomasz Kassel, and Tomasz Michalik
Publication Date:: 06-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: The VAT gap, both on the European Union scale and that of particular member states (though not all of them) appeals to the imagination and awakens many extreme emotions. For it is difficult to accept that the level is so significant, and – what is more – in recent years it has narrowed quite insignificantly despite attempts to limit it. In the popular understanding, this gap is quite often identified exclusively with the consequences of fraud, but it has many more component elements, many of which have nothing to do with abuse. Still, this doesn’t change the face that it is precisely fraud and abuse that constitute a particularly significant element of the VAT gap.
Topic:: Financial Crimes, Tax Systems, Fiscal Policy, and VAT
Political Geography:: Europe, Poland, and European Union

4596. The Catalan economy: Crisis, recovery and policy challenges

Author:: Xavier Cuadras-Morató
Publication Date:: 05-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: Catalonia is one of the richest regions in Spain. Until the outbreak of the international financial and economic crisis in 2008, it enjoyed a phenomenal economic boom – which then turned into a very severe depression, from which the region began to exit only in 2014. Consolidating the recovery and making the economy more competitive and resilient, and less volatile, are some of the key challenges of economic policy in Catalonia. Also, to improve the region’s social cohesion, policymakers should make sure that economic prosperity is more widely shared, and transform it into an effective tool for social progress.
Topic:: Demographics, Labor Issues, Economic Growth, Social Policy, Global Financial Crisis, Economic Policy, Trade, and Recovery
Political Geography:: Europe, Spain, Catalonia, and European Union

4597. Economic policy, the international environment and the state of Poland’s public finances: Scenarios

Author:: Aleksander Łaszek
Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: Poland’s structural deficit is one of the largest in the EU. While other Member States are taking action to reduce their deficits, the Polish government has not only introduced costly projects, but has also announced additional projects that will further aggravate the state of Polish public finances. The aim of maintaining the nominal deficit under 3% of GDP, as declared by the government, is insufficient because it does not leave a margin of safety in case of an economic slowdown. In the meantime, the turbulent global economy and the structural challenges the Polish economy is facing make the scenario of an economic slowdown increasingly plausible. Dr. Aleksander Łaszek evaluates the government’s current policy through the lens of the challenges that stand a head of Polish economy, and its resilience to shocks, in the new mBank-CASE Seminar Proceedings "Economic policy, the international environment and the state of Poland’s public finances: Scenarios".
Topic:: Debt, Government, Finance, Economic Growth, Trade, and Deficit
Political Geography:: Europe, Poland, and European Union

4598. The Roots of Ethnic Cleansing in Europe, by Zeynep Bulutgil

Author:: Benjamin Lieberman and Zeynep Bulutgil
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: In The Roots of Ethnic Cleansing in Europe, Zeynep Bulutgil questions prevailing interpretations of the origins of ethnic cleansing and provides an innovative interpretation that will itself prompt further debate about the balance between factors that might block ethnic cleansing as well as active causes of cleansing. The work poses an important and often overlooked question: instead of focusing on factors that have caused ethnic cleansing, why not instead also chart factors that have precluded ethnic cleansing?
Topic:: Ethnic Conflict, History, Book Review, and Ethnic Cleansing
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, Soviet Union, and Yugoslavia

4599. Merchants of Men: How Jihadists and ISIS Turned Kidnapping and Refugee Trafficking into a Multi-Billion Dollar Business, by Loretta Napoleoni

Author:: Loretta Napoleoni and Karen Jacobsen
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: This book is a lively journalistic read, filled with stories and details of encounters between jihadists, smugglers, organized crime, drug smuggling across the Sahara, kidnapping of rich tourists, and European ransoms. The author, an Italian journalist, describes herself as a ‘chronicler of the dark side of the economics of globalization’ and has written several books on ISIS, terrorist financing, and money laundering. In Merchants of Men, Napoleoni argues that the proliferation of failed states and the breakdown of law and order in regions like the Sahel, accelerated by the burgeoning cocaine business in the region, have enabled a rapid increase in trafficking and kidnapping. The profits of these merchants of men have flourished, aided by the secrecy of European governments surrounding the ransoming of their citizens (notably, the U.S. does not, publicly at least, pay ransoms). Napoleoni raises these and a number of intriguing issues in the preface. She points to the “false sense of security about the globalized world” that allows both “young, inexperienced members of the First Nations Club” and humanitarian aid workers to explore the world and bring aid to conflict zones — and become the primary target of kidnappers. She gives (unsourced) statistics about the growth of the kidnapping industry and its mirror, private security companies, and asks whether “the economics of kidnapping are immune from the laws of economics,” because as competition has increased between kidnappers and private security firms, prices have gone up instead of down. She argues that when the migrant crisis erupted in Europe in 2015, the business of hostage taking — already set up with “a sophisticated organizational structure in place and plenty of money from trading hostages” — switched to trafficking in migrants and refugees. The profits of these merchants of men have continued to increase since then.
Topic:: Crime, Refugees, Islamic State, Book Review, and Journalism
Political Geography:: Iraq, Europe, Middle East, Syria, Global Focus, and United States of America

4600. What Post-WWII Schoolchildren Learned about the World

Author:: Susan Douglass
Publication Date:: 09-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:: A look at the role of textbooks in shaping worldviews, global literacy, and national pride. The middle of the twentieth century was a watershed period in history for many reasons, with one of the most significant being the rise of mass education systems across the world. As Britain shed its colonies, newly independent countries with influential leaders launched efforts to educate their masses—efforts that had been held back under colonial rule. India and Egypt, under Nehru and Abdel Nasser respectively, began using government schools to strive for social integration and mold their citizens’ worldviews to enlist them in national economic development and modernization. Britain, too, launched a much-needed expansion of its secondary education system and revamped its elementary schools to meet the demands of the postwar baby boom.
Topic:: Education, Nationalism, History, and Children
Political Geography:: Britain, Europe, South Asia, Middle East, India, and Egypt

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