Political Geography: Europe / Journal:

4701. Emerging European Security Challenges

Author:: Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination
Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:: The Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination at Princeton University (LISD) convened a special Liechtenstein Colloquium,“Emerging European Security Challenges,” in Triesenberg, Principality of Liechtenstein, from November 12-15, 2015. The colloquium brought together senior diplomats, academics, policy-makers, experts and representatives of European civil society and NGOs. The colloquium was off-the-record and was financially supported by a grant from the Carnegie Corporation of New York and SIBIL Foundation, Vaduz. The objective of the colloquium was to examine the interactions between and the various effects of three key crises—the Ukraine war, the war in Syria, and the European refugee crisis—for broader regional, EU, and international security. Cluster One considered “Russia, Ukraine, the West, and the future of collective security,” including the role of the Baltic states in security issues, the relationship between Russia and the European Union, and the role of media, information and hybrid warfare. Cluster Two, “The Syrian War and ISIS/Da’esh” focused on several issues related to the ongoing civil war and conflict in the Middle East, including alliances of the Assad government, rebel and other opposition groups, ISIS/Da’esh, Russia, Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States, and, especially, the Kurds. Emphasis was put on the plight of Christians and other religious groups in the region. Cluster Three, “The refugee crisis and the challenge of European collective action,” connected the worst refugee crisis in Europe since World War II to the situation in the MENA region. It focused on refugees and migrants within Europe’s borders and along the Balkan route, the role of Turkey, Greece and Germany, terrorism concerns, and EU actions and emerging differences between member states. The protection of religious minorities and the longer-term question of integration and assimilation of refugees and asylum-seekers offered another focus. This report reflects the substance of these discussions and includes an updated Chair’s Addendum.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, European Union, Refugee Crisis, ISIS, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, and Syria

4702. Right of Peoples to Self-Determination

Author:: Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:: This report is the Chair’s Summary of a colloquium on the theme of reconciling self-determination and territorial integrity, “Models of Self-Governance as Tools to Promote Peace and Stability in Europe,” which was held in Triesenberg, Liechtenstein, from March 20-22, 2016. The report conveys key points from the discussions among academics, experienced mediators and diplomats, aimed at considering new and innovative ways of thinking about self-determination that do not equate it with independence or secession, in particular, in the context of ongoing conflicts in the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe area. The meeting was held in collaboration by Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination at Princeton University and the Permanent Mission of Liechtenstein to the United Nations.
Topic:: Governance, Self Determination, Political stability, and Peace
Political Geography:: Europe

4703. Europe Today and What's Next

Author:: Hannes Androsch
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:: In many places it is forgotten that Europe, especially the EU, is a veritable success story, as this continent has never before experienced a period such as the past seven decades of democracy, peace and prosperity. Faced with the current challenges, especially the refugee crisis, there has been an increasing tendency among European governments to take unilateral action. This approach cannot be successful, however, as European governments attempt to implement policy prescriptions of the past to solve problems of the present. In fact, we need not less but more Europe—but also a reformed Europe: a European Union with one voice for external policy (common foreign, security and defense policy and asylum and migration policy) and the capacity to overcome its internal turmoil (common economic, budget, and tax policies, and a minimum of a transfer union). We also need a European Union that makes the benefits of globalization available to all people. The European Union is currently experiencing one of its worst crises in its history. Old fault lines that have run through the continent for centuries, once considered overcome, have become prominent once again; new challenges have arisen, especially in the wake of globalization, climate change and new technological developments (the Digital Revolution). The world has seemingly become ungovernable. The proclaimed 1989 “end of history” (Fukuyama) is certainly over, and history has a firm grip on Europe. This, at least since the outbreak of the financial and economic crisis in 2007/08, no longer deniable fact is reflected in the still unresolved crisis in Greece (“Grexit”), the associated Euro Crisis, the British referendum on exit from the EU (“Brexit”), and in the renaissance of geopolitics. The annexation of Crimea by Russia undertaken in violation of international law, the war in eastern Ukraine, as well as state disintegration in Libya, Yemen, Iraq and Syria have made it clear that, from the Caucasus to the Balkans and from Pakistan/Afghanistan via the Middle East to North Africa, extends a “Ring of Fire,”—a term used by former Prime Minister of Singapore Lee Kuan Yew to describe the geopolitical challenges of Europe more than twenty years ago. These long concealed —or ignored—distortions are now breaking out again in the form of “wars of succession,” leaving behind territories plagued by unrest, civil wars, and failed states, and resulting in terrorism and refugee waves now reaching the center of Europe. The resulting “crisis mode,” within which the European Union has been operating for several years now, reached its climax with the result of the referendum conducted in June, determining Britain’s exit from the European Union (Brexit). Aside from the medium and long-term economic implications for the country, Brexit was an earthquake with unforeseeable consequences especially on the political level. Scotland is once again discussing its potential separation from the United Kingdom, the fragile peace funded by the EU in Northern Ireland is threatened by collapse, and in a considerable number of other EU countries—mainly France and the Netherlands—populist and nationalist parties are interpreting Brexit as a signal to seek their salvation in national initiatives.
Topic:: Security, Global Recession, European Union, Refugee Crisis, Brexit, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Russia, China, United Kingdom, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Asia, and Syria

4704. The Recruitment of Migrant Workers By London Science and technology Firms

Author:: Andrew P. Goodwin
Publication Date:: 08-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: Access to talent is central to London’s competitiveness. It is important that all companies can recruit the skills and experience they need to innovate and grow. Tier 2 of the UK’s visa system is the main economic route for skilled immigration from outside the European Economic Area (EEA), where the position cannot be filled by a UK/EEA national or is on the Shortage Occupation List. This report assesses the extent to which start-ups and SMEs, particularly those in the science and technology sectors, have difficulties in recruiting from outside the EEA through Tier 2. It finds that while some firms are undoubtedly facing challenges, the problem is not especially widespread across the science and technology sector as a whole. However, at least some employers are encountering difficulties with Tier 2 and a faster, better-supported, and simpler process would make a real difference to employers.
Topic:: Migration, Science and Technology, Labor Issues, and Immigrants
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, London, and England

4705. 25 Years After the USSR: What’s Gone Wrong?

Author:: Henry E. Hale
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Democracy
Institution:: National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:: A quarter century after the USSR’s breakup, the region it occupied has become more rather than less authoritarian on average. The rise has been neither steep nor steady, however, and the dominant regional pattern has been regime cycling, with movement both toward and away from authoritarianism at different points in time. Key causes are the tenacious pre-Soviet legacy of patronalism, the prevalence of presidentialist constitutions, and strong leadership popularity without the strong Western linkage and leverage that has often mitigated similar authoritarian tendencies in places like Africa and Latin America.
Topic:: Power Politics, Authoritarianism, and Democracy
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, and Latin America

4706. The Danger of Deconsolidation: The Democratic Disconnect

Author:: Roberto Stefan Foa and Yascha Mounk
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Democracy
Institution:: National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:: The citizens of wealthy, established democracies are less satisfied with their governments than they have been at any time since opinion polling began. Most scholars have interpreted this as a sign of dissatisfaction with particular governments rather than with the political system as a whole. Drawing on recent public opinion data, we suggest that this optimistic interpretation is no longer plausible. Across a wide sample of countries in North America and Western Europe, citizens of mature democracies have become markedly less satisfied with their form of government and surprisingly open to nondemocratic alternatives. A serious democratic disconnect has emerged. If it widens even further, it may begin to challenge the stability of seemingly consolidated democracies.
Topic:: Public Opinion, Democracy, and Political stability
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and Western Europe

4707. The Specter Haunting Europe: The Unraveling of the Post-1989 Order

Author:: Ivan Krastev
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Democracy
Institution:: National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:: This article argues that the unraveling of the post–Cold War liberal order is manifested by the West’s declining influence in international politics; the waning attraction of liberal democracy; and the maturing tensions within liberal democratic regimes. This unraveling renders problematic the European project of trying to extend democracy beyond the nation-state—a project that has enhanced the appeal of illiberal democracy, defined by majoritarian regimes in which the majority transforms the state into its own private possession. These regimes have become an answer to the pressures of a world where popular will is the only source of political legitimacy, and global markets are the only source of economic growth. Their rise portends devastating and far-reaching consequences throughout Europe.
Topic:: Democracy, Global Markets, Legitimacy, and Post Cold War
Political Geography:: Europe

4708. The Specter Haunting Europe: Distinguishing Liberal Democracy’s Challengers

Author:: Takis S. Pappas
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Democracy
Institution:: National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:: This article takes issue with the common practice of uncritically lumping together as “populist” the various and distinct challengers to democracy in contemporary Europe. It disaggregates and then classifies such challengers into three analytically distinct categories: antidemocrats, nativists, and populists. In so doing, the article reveals the geographical distribution of these categories across Europe, and highlights the value of treating each category based on its unique set of symptoms. It further shows that the gravest threat to contemporary liberalism comes from populist rather than from antidemocratic or nativist parties.
Topic:: Democracy, Populism, Liberal Order, Nativism, and Post Cold War
Political Geography:: Europe

4709. EuroMeSCo Policy Brief 58: Reconceptualising Sustainable Responses to the Refugee Crisis.

Author:: Timothy Hammind
Publication Date:: 02-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: An unprecedented number of asylum-seekers crossed the Mediterranean Sea to reach Europe in 2015 and worldwide displacement figures are now at a record high. This policy brief explores the ongoing refugee crisis, analyzes the conventional response framework, and identifies several key issues that are inhibiting European Union member states from addressing the crisis in a comprehensive, organized, and collective manner. Several recommendations are offered to prepare states to better understand and respond to the complex realities of forced displacement and migration in the 21st century.
Topic:: Development, Humanitarian Aid, Migration, European Union, and Refugee Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe

4710. EU Pressure Insufficient to Gain U.S. Visa Waiver for Poles

Author:: Marek Wasinski
Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: In a communication of 12 April, the European Commission assessed the potential political and economic consequences of suspending visa exemption for U.S. citizens. Lacking pressure from individual EU Member States, the Commission discouraged such a move and gave the EU Council and European Parliament three months to take an official position. It seems almost certain that the measure of applying pressure on a non-EU country will not be used to help Poland and four other Member States obtain visa-free travel to the United States or other countries with a similar restriction. However, if current trends continue, Poland should join the U.S. Visa Waiver Programme in five years.
Topic:: Economics, Politics, European Union, and Citizenship
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

4711. How ASEAN’s Transformation Can Play Out Well for Europe

Author:: Damian Wnukowski
Publication Date:: 02-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The transformation of ASEAN into an economic community is a significant step in the organisation’s integration process. The project, formally launched at the beginning of 2016, aims at creation of a single market of more than 620 million people, loosens the flow of goods, services and investment, which should underpin regional economic growth and catch the attention of foreign businesses. However, obstacles to economic cooperation remain, such as limitations on the movement of labour or capital, which shows that the integration process is not yet complete. The EU, which can benefit from a well-functioning market in this region, should share its own experience to support the ASEAN integration process.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Politics, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:: Europe

4712. Ukraine: A Migration Corridor with Half-Closed Doors

Author:: Piotr Kościński
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: At a time when many European countries are strengthening border protection (including building walls), migrants will seek new avenues to Europe. In this context and of particular importance will be the policy of the authorities of Ukraine, which currently, and despite the still unstable situation in the country (war in the east and economic problems) could become the country of choice for migrants. Another problem for Kyiv may be internal migration. Both forms increase the risk of migration to EU countries such as Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and Romania, which are neighbours of Ukraine. In this situation, additional EU assistance to the authorities in Kyiv will be necessary.
Topic:: Economics, Migration, Politics, and Governance
Political Geography:: Europe and Ukraine

4713. An “Atomized Caliphate” in Europe

Author:: Armen Oganesyan
Publication Date:: 02-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: A Part of The Western World, Europe, however, has been very selective about alien cultures and civilizations; not a “melting pot” american style, it is paying dearly for this function imposed on it. The disagreements on the migration issues in the european corridors of power threaten the cohesion of the european Unity. Frau Merkel who demonstrated a no mean determination to meet a new wave of migrants within maximal openness and tolerance had already accepted the failure of multiculturalism. This means that Berlin has no answer to the question about how to cope with the migrants who have arrived in thousands and millions to Europe to stay.
Topic:: Migration, Treaties and Agreements, Refugee Issues, and Multiculturalism
Political Geography:: Europe

4714. The Syrian Refugee Crisis in Europe

Author:: Rossen Kostadinov Koroutchev
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: The manuscript analyzes the current refugee’s crisis in Europe and the situation of the Syrian refugees in Syria’s neighboring countries such as Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey. The presented comparative analysis between the first instance decisions in asylum policies of several European countries is accompanied by additional statistics of the refugee’s influx. Several suggestions related to the necessary measures to be taken in short and long term in order to ensure more sustainable migration patterns are discussed in detail.
Topic:: Migration, Refugees, Syrian War, Borders, and Integration
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, and Syria

4715. Migrant and Refugee Crisis in Europe: Was Pandora’s Box Open?

Author:: Angelina Stanojoska
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: The movement has been part of human history; it is and has been integrated inside every human, becoming active as a result of various factors which at a moment are more or less dominant in one’s life. It is like a code written down in everyone’s DNA, making humans unable or better said “hungry” to be free and always look for better. Starting in March 2010, the Arab Spring opened a door for the biggest migration flow in modern history. Such as conflicts were crossing borders from one state to another in the fight for democracy and freedom from regimes, as domino effect migration did the same. Numbers increased every day and during 2015, in time of the Syrian crisis, we were witnessing a major migration flow to Europe since the European colonization and the Transatlantic Slave Trade. Mentioning the theory of push and pull factors as a starting point, although it has been used to explain the everyday movement of people, victims of human trafficking, towards rich countries which at the end become their countries of destination in the labyrinth of exploitation, lured by stories of well-paid jobs and good life, it can also be discussed in the context of migration movements during the 2015 and the beginning of 2016.
Topic:: Migration, European Union, Refugees, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:: Europe

4716. A Non-Ideological Reframing of the US-Russian Arms-Control Agenda

Author:: Nikolai Sokov
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
Abstract:: US-Russian nuclear arms control has remained deadlocked since the conclusion of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) in 2010. The absence of progress hasn’t, however, been a major concern in either country. Although the United States could benefit from additional reductions as it considers the wholesale replacement of its strategic delivery vehicles, that interest appears rather marginal. Russia, already in the midst of its own delivery-vehicle replacement program, seems even less interested.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, and Nonproliferation
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, North America, and United States of America

4717. Enduring Uncertainty

Author:: Ines Hasselberg
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Book
Institution:: Berghahn Books
Abstract:: Focusing on the lived experience of immigration policy and processes, this volume provides fascinating insights into the deportation process as it is felt and understood by those subjected to it. The author presents a rich and innovative ethnography of deportation and deportability experienced by migrants convicted of criminal offenses in England and Wales. The unique perspectives developed here – on due process in immigration appeals, migrant surveillance and control, social relations and sense of self, and compliance and resistance – are important for broader understandings of border control policy and human rights.
Topic:: Human Rights, Migration, Immigration, Border Control, Surveillance, Police, and Resistance
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, England, and Wales

4718. Journal of Advanced Military Studies: Climate Change & Policy

Author:: Edward J. Erickson, J. Brooks Flippen, Michael Reis, Rebecca Pincus, Ralph H. Espach, David Zvijac, Ronald Filadelfo, Catherine M. Schkoda, Shawna G. Cuan, and E. D. McGrady
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: MCU Press (MCUP) proudly offers readers this special issue of MCU Journal (MCUJ) that focuses on the past, present, and future impact of climate change and policy. While it is not our intent to take a political or philosophical stance on the issue, we do intend to use this medium to inspire discussion on how U.S. agencies and Service branches address the subject based on operational demands, political pressure, and public opinion. Readers might wonder how this global topic impacts the U.S. Marine Corps; however, the two are not such disparate concepts, particularly when we consider the connection between climate change impacts and humanitarian aid and disaster relief operations the Corps has supported as early as 1895. This special issue of the journal also represents the strategic direction of the new editorial board and MCUP staff who intend to address topics of value to the Marine Corps, Marine Corps University, and the larger Department of Defense community. Our priority, in addition to timely and relevant content, is to engage civilian scholars and analysts, such as J. Brooks Flippen at Southeastern Oklahoma State University; Michael Reis at History Associates Inc.; our partners at CNA, Ralph Espach, David Zvijac, Ronaldo Filadelfo, Catherine Schkoda, Shawna Cuan, and E. D. McGrady; and professional military education instructors, such as Edward Erickson at MCU and Rebecca Pincus at the U.S. Coast Guard Academy. Future issues of MCUJ also will include articles written by military personnel who understand the value of their perspectives and the importance of that knowledge not being lost once a deployment or active duty ends. MCUJ offers readers truly engaged authors from a myriad of backgrounds, with a variety of professional experience, and whose perceptions are important in the policy world.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Government, Migration, National Security, Treaties and Agreements, Public Opinion, Military Affairs, European Union, and History
Political Geography:: Europe, Asia-Pacific, Global Focus, and United States of America

4719. Hard Power versus Soft Power or a Balance between the Two?

Author:: Peter Volten
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: Many things have changed in Turkey within the last decade, but also in Brussels as to the political practises. This commentary seeks to answer whether Turkey and the EU can find and maintain a sensible balance between toughness and empathy, between considerations of hard power and soft power. Turkey is obviously an essential, regional player both economically and militarily. Geopolitics may not appear high on the agenda of the EU, but the situation in the Middle-East simply could not and cannot be ignored as a geopolitical challenge, one that might beg for acting in concert with Turkey. On the other side, Europe represents an attraction and example based on a long history and struggle for material wealth, technological and scientific progress as well as for the accomplished degree of democracy and the rule of law. More recently, however, EU soft power suffers a number of setbacks. We disown our most basic values of soft power and will lose impact in promoting a just, democratic order in the world. If the EU and its member states fail to recover from this set-back, we risk to fall back in the hard power game, also with potential and aspiring states.
Topic:: Politics, European Union, Democracy, Geopolitics, Rule of Law, and Soft Power
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

4720. Intelligence Cooperation in the European Union: An Impossible Dream?

Author:: Şeniz Bilgi
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: There has been a shift in the intelligence and security strategies of the states since 9/11. The attacks created a new security environment in which intelligence has become increasingly significant. Not only have the responsibilities and tasks of intelligence agencies become more important, but the necessity for intelligence and security service cooperation among nations has also increased. Accordingly, intelligence agencies had to update their strategies to put more emphasis on collaboration. This article analyzes the current EU intelligence network and tries to answer whether full intelligence cooperation in the EU could develop into a discrete organization in the aftermath of 2004 Madrid, 2005 London and the 7 January 2015 Charlie Hebdo attacks, or whether it is an impossible dream to have concerted action whereby states acknowledge their mutual alliances, interests, and strategies.
Topic:: Intelligence, International Cooperation, Terrorism, and European Union
Political Geography:: Europe

4721. Into the Syrian Storm: Between Alliance and Alignment

Author:: Yu Bin
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: In the final months of 2015, China-Russia interaction started with President Putin’s state visit to China and ended with the 20th annual prime ministerial meeting in Beijing. While Putin’s visit was full of historical and geopolitical symbolism, the prime ministers meeting was geared for substance, aiming to energize bilateral economic relations against the backdrop of Western sanctions against Russia and China’s economic slowdown. In between, Chinese and Russian leaders met at multilateral forums, and a $2-billion sale of 24 Russian Sukhoi-35 fighter-bombers to China after eight years of negotiations was finalized. Meanwhile, the world witnessed Russia’s intervention in the Syrian civil war, the European refugee crisis, the Paris massacre, and the rise of anti-establishment forces across the West. The apparent warming of Sino-Russian relations led to another round of questions: were they moving toward an anti-West alliance?
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Alliance
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, Middle East, Asia, and Syria

4722. H-Bomb Plus THAAD Equals Sino-Russian Alliance?

Author:: Yu Bin
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: The first months of 2016 witnessed a significant escalation of tension in Northeast Asia following North Korea’s fourth nuclear test on Jan. 6. The test, coupled with renewed US-ROK interest in deploying the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system, presented China and Russia with a “double-layered predicament”: nuclear proliferation on the heavily militarized Korean Peninsula and a direct threat to their nuclear deterrence posture. Meanwhile, talk of a Sino-Russia alliance was back on track in China. In reality, however policies of the two powers seemed to go in different directions. Russia continued to surprise the world, including China, over its involvement in Syria. For China, the “One Belt, One Road” initiative took Xi Jinping to three major Muslim nations (Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt) in January. China also dispatched its own Syrian special envoy and initiated a mini-security alliance with Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Kyrgyzstan to the displeasure of Moscow. By the end of April, the two countries announced they would conduct their first-ever joint anti-missile drills in Russia.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Denuclearization
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

4723. Politics of “Reluctant Allies”

Author:: Yu Bin
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: The China-Russia relationship was both extraordinary and ordinary. On one hand, both sides were visibly, albeit reluctantly, moving toward more security-strategic coordination to offset growing pressure from the US and its allies. On the other hand, they continued to interact with a mix of cooperation, competition, and compromise for interests and influence in a range of areas including trade, investment, and regional development. Neither trend was definitive, given the complex dynamics between the two, as well as their respective relations with others, which are beyond the control of Moscow or Beijing. The asymmetry between “high” and “low” politics in their bilateral ties may be normal, if not necessarily desirable. Nevertheless, the scope, speed, and sustainability of the emerging Sino-Russian strategic alignment deserve careful scrutiny.
Topic:: Security, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, Alliance, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, and Asia

4724. The Making of a State: Transition in Montenegro

Author:: Igor Lukšic and Milorad Katnic
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Cato Journal
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: The first Montenegrin state started to take shape in the 8th century with the arrival of the Slavs and their mingling with the local population. Originally it was called Doclea, whose ruler received a royal insignia by the Pope Gregory VII in 1078 (Andrijaševi ´c and Rastoder 2006). Montenegro fell under the Ottomans in the late 15th century, but acted as a de facto independent state until formal recognition came at the Berlin Congress in 1878. Despite being on the victors’ side in the Balkan Wars and in World War I, it was annexed by Serbia and lost its sovereignty in 1918. After the Second World War it became a part of socialist Yugoslavia, where it remained until 1992. Montenegro’s political transition started in earnest after the Belgrade Agreement signed in March 2002. Montenegro held an independence referendum in 2006 and was subsequently admitted to the United Nations and other international organizations. Today Montenegro is engaged in accession talks with the European Union (EU).
Topic:: History, Elections, State, and Transition
Political Geography:: Europe and Montenegro

4725. Beyond Propaganda: Soviet Active Measures in Putin’s Russia

Author:: Steve Abrams
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Connections
Institution:: Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:: This paper investigates the role of Soviet-style “active measures” as an element of modern Russian “political warfare.” These techniques were commonly used during the Soviet-era, encompassing a broad range of influence activities, including: covert media placement, forgery, agents of influence, “friendship” societies, front organizations, and more. Today, in Putin’s Russia, these active measures are once again in use, updated for digitally interconnected “global information space.” The paper begins with an introduction to active measures, then discusses their role in Soviet foreign policy and the attempts by the American “Active Measures Working Group” to counter them. The paper then describes how the Soviet active measures playbook has been updated for the modern era, using three case studies as examples. The paper concludes with a discussion on strategy, reproducing a number of recommendations from key publications.
Topic:: Media, Information Age, Propaganda, and political warfare
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Eastern Europe

4726. The Threats and Challenges of a Multipolar World: A Ukraine Crisis Case Study

Author:: Oleksil Izhak
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Connections
Institution:: Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:: As the post-cold-war unipolar system transforms into a polycentric one, it becomes more complex and less predictable. The new system may be crushed with less effort than needed to keep it on track. The polycentric international system, as it emerges, suffers from hybrid threats. They are difficult to identify and predict. Russia pioneered exploiting the new vulnerabilities to gain unilateral advantages. Russia's hybrid war against Ukraine was just a starting episode of her wider attempt to crush the whole world order. Responsible world powers have either to fix the vulnerabilities of the polycentric world, or to block malicious attempts to exploit it.
Topic:: Imperialism, Military Strategy, Post Cold War, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

4727. Torn Asunder from Within: Ukraine and the Lessons for Global Security

Author:: Iryna Klymenko
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Connections
Institution:: Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:: Russia’s non-standard intervention in Ukraine was accomplished in four major areas—the economic system as a whole, the energy and security sectors, and information policy. The deliberate policy of the Kremlin has transformed Ukraine into economically fragile and institutionally weak nation. Due to efforts of former regime and Russian intelligence agencies, main Ukrainian government institutions were involved in semi-legal, semi-criminal transnational business scheme. Macro-financial vulnerability of Ukraine, in conjunction with a strained economic structure, proved to be the necessary and sufficient conditions for preparing and implementing hybrid aggression. The Ukrainian precedent might be replicated as a special operation to destroy statehood, whereby disruption is achieved through the escalation of internal political and economic challenges. One universal means of undermining statehood in an era of hybrid wars is to encourage corruption among holders of the highest office.
Topic:: Security, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

4728. ‘Good’ and ‘Bad’ Investments: Everything You Always Wanted to Know about Ukrainian Commanders but Were Afraid to Ask

Author:: Michael Komin and Alexander Vileykis
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Connections
Institution:: Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:: The military conflict in Southeastern Ukraine provides vast research opportunities in most diverse areas and in a zone of ongoing combat with all its attendant social ramifications. This article provides a review of some key questions of this war: why volunteer battalions conduct some harmful and inhumane acts and what may be done next to prevent violence after the war. Because war creates big areas without any control, there are huge non-transferable investments, incidents like torturing civil people, etc. The authors try to explain what conditions may impact the behavior of battalions and what should the governments do after the war ends.
Topic:: Imperialism, Military Strategy, Territorial Disputes, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

4729. The Rise of Intelligence Studies: A Model for Germany? Download

Author:: Alessandro Corvaja, Brigita Jeraj, and Uwe M. Borghoff
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Connections
Institution:: Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:: Intelligence Studies have established themselves as a common subject in higher education in the Anglosphere. Germany so far offers no dedicated program in the field. A postgraduate program that promotes an understanding of the role and context of intelligence, strengthens analytical skills and deepens subject-matter expertise would combine the best features of various educational models, and provide a real contribution to building a cadre of highly qualified intelligence professionals. In this research report, the authors succinctly document the state of the discipline, present examples of some twelve degree programs, and, finally, develop initial proposals for an intelligence curriculum for German universities.
Topic:: Education, Intelligence, and Higher Education
Political Geography:: Europe, Germany, and Central Europe

4730. Emerging Security Challenges: An Introduction

Author:: Detlef Puhl
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Connections
Institution:: Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:: The security landscape at the beginning of the 21st century is a fluid and dynamic one, characterized by developments in technology, in weapons and communications systems as well as by shifts in the international political landscape and organizational structures of non-state actors posing serious and imminent threats to national and international security. Within this environment NATO finds itself at a crossroads. Its Strategic Concept, adopted in Lisbon in November 2010, marks the beginning of its adjustment to this new reality, reflecting a security environment with effects far beyond NATO and its partners – an environment which will see the fundamental global shifts continue in the coming years: In the global distribution of power, including revisionist activities in our immediate neighborhood and a fundamental challenge to our rules-based international order by mainly radical islamist organizations; in demographics; in economics; in technology; in the environment. Faced by such very different global challenges to our security, NATO must seek to maintain its cohesion and develop a broader notion of transatlantic security and enhance its relevance in meeting modern day threats and challenges.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Science and Technology, and Weapons
Political Geography:: Europe, North Atlantic, and North America

4731. Hybrid Warfare and the Changing Character of Conflict

Author:: Bastain Giegerich
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Connections
Institution:: Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:: The idea that international conflict might be seeing more hybrid warfare and hybrid threats has animated debate among security and defense establishments in the run-up to NATO’s 2016 Warsaw Summit. While the Alliance has located the issue of hybrid war in the specific context of the Russia/Ukraine crisis and in 2014 triggered efforts to prepare NATO to effectively meet hybrid warfare threats, the scope of the challenge is much wider and the core dynamics are often located outside of the military realm. The article reviews the recent conceptual debates about hybrid warfare, suggesting that hybrid conflicts defy our attempts to press them into known categories and locate them clearly on a spectrum of war and peace. NATO Member States will have to invest in resilience and conventional deterrence to counter hybrid threats.
Topic:: NATO, Imperialism, Military Strategy, Deterrence, and Hybrid Warfare
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, North Atlantic, Ukraine, and North America

4732. Making Sense of Hybrid Warfare

Author:: James K. Wither
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Connections
Institution:: Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:: The term hybrid warfare has been widely analyzed by scholars, policymakers and commentators since Russia occupied Crimea in March 2014. The topic has ceased to be a subject only studied by military strate-gists, but has entered the wider policy domain as a significant security challenge for the West. This article seeks to place the debate about hybrid warfare in a broader analytical and historical context and summarizes discussion to date on this and related strategic concepts. The Russian approach to hybrid warfare as demonstrated by operations in Ukraine is a particular focus for discussion.
Topic:: NATO, Military Strategy, Territorial Disputes, Collective Defense, and Hybrid Warfare
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, North Atlantic, Ukraine, North America, and Crimea

4733. Non-State Actors in the Russo-Ukrainian War

Author:: Joshua P. Mulford
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Connections
Institution:: Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:: The current war in Ukraine has highlighted the fact that in this new age of warfare non-state actors play a larger role than ever before. The influence of the media, think tanks and academia, religious groups, organized crime, war militias, NGOs and GONGOs, and the Ukrainian diaspora is pervasive. Kremlin-controlled media coverage of the war in Eastern Ukraine, including the downing of the MH-17 jet, is offset by the newer grassroots pro-Ukrainian media outlets such as Ukraine Today. Think tanks and academia focused on Ukraine and Russia are also battling for visibility in the government and among the populous. The impact of religious groups on the Ukrainian conflict is best featured in the Russian Orthodox Church’s rationalizing the invasion of Crimea as Russia’s divine right. The Ukrainian church, a subset of the ROC, has broken off and played a proactive role in assisting the war effort by pro-Ukrainian militias. The almost concurrent rise of militias and organized crime in Ukraine pose as a precarious issue for the future of the country. As the government is incapable of regaining sovereignty of its territory, stand-alone militias have risen to fight the Russian invasion in Eastern Ukraine. Organized crime has capitalized on the instability of the region, and with the annexation of Crimea, a new system of black market activities has been opened. The outside world is taking an interest in the Ukrainian plight, as well as in the form of NGO support, and in the case of Russia, GONGOs to promote policies in line with their agendas. The Ukrainian diaspora has also fought to influence policy making towards Ukraine, forming committees and sending supplies to the front line. It is unclear how much influence these non-state actors will have in the future of Ukraine, but it is quite certain that they each play a significant role in the way the conflict is perceived.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Territorial Disputes, Non State Actors, and Media
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

4734. Cyber Operations and Gray Zones: Challenges for NATO

Author:: Oliver Fitton
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Connections
Institution:: Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:: The Gray Zone represents a space between peaceful state rivalries and war. Within this space actors have developed hybrid strategies to extend their influence. This concept of conflict is best illustrated by Russia’s actions in Eastern Ukraine in 2014. Gray Zone doctrine leverages ambiguity to create an environment in which adversaries are unable to make strategic decisions in a timely and confident manner. Cyber Operations, because of the attribution problem, lend themselves to this kind of conflict. This article explores the interactions between the Gray Zone and cyber operations and considers questions which NATO must address in order to adapt.
Topic:: NATO, Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, and Hybrid Warfare
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, North Atlantic, Ukraine, and North America

4735. Transnational Organized Crime – Latvian Challenges and Responses

Author:: Alekejs Loskutovs
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Connections
Institution:: Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:: This article provides recent evidence from Latvia on activities of organized crime groups, covering illegal border crossing, drug trafficking, economic crime, money laundering, theft of vehicles, human trafficking, and the corruption related to all these types of crime. The concluding section presents regional and European initiatives to counter organized crime, in which Latvian law enforcement agencies participate, as well as the national project to build a fence on the border with the Russian Federation.
Topic:: Corruption, Crime, Law Enforcement, and Organized Crime
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, and Latvia

4736. The Mobilization and Recruitment of Foreign Fighters: The Case of Islamic State, 2012–2014

Author:: Almakan Orozobekova
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Connections
Institution:: Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:: This article examines how foreign fighters were recruited and mobilized for Islamic State in 2012-2014. Institutional and individual approaches to this phenomenon form the basis of understanding the mechanisms used for the mobilization and recruitment of foreign fighters. The former refers to a terrorist institution that plays a key role in the recruitment of individuals (top-down/institutional), and the latter refers to the self-radicalization process that foreign fighters undergo (bottom-up/ individual). In particular, the research focuses on an analysis of Islamic State and the recruitment/mobilization of sixteen foreign fighters from Tunisia, Saudi Arabia, France, and the United Kingdom. The analysis shows that both top-down and bottom-up concepts are important but that the extent to which each is used depends on the profiles of the country in question. The study concludes by demonstrating the comparative value of top-down and bottom-up approaches in terms of understanding contemporary terrorist recruitment and providing policy recommendations.
Topic:: Terrorism, Islamic State, and Recruitment
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, Middle East, France, Saudi Arabia, and Tunisia

4737. NATO Nuclear Deterrence: The Warsaw Summit and Beyond

Author:: Matthew P. Anderson
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Connections
Institution:: Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:: NATO’s Deterrence and Defense Posture Review (DDPR, 2012), concluded that “the Alliance’s nuclear force posture currently meets the criteria for an effective deterrence and defense posture.” In addition to the strategic nuclear forces of France, the United Kingdom, and the United States, NATO’s “posture” notably included, then and now, some 200 B-61 “tactical” nuclear bombs stored at sites in five longtime member states. Since release of the DDPR, NATO relations with Russia have deteriorated. It would appear that the American B-61 nukes, soon to be improved through a multibillion-dollar life extension program, are destined to stay in Europe. Beneath the surface, however, linger disquieting questions about the fabled three-C’s of NATO’s deterrence – its military capability, its credibility and its communication to potential adversaries and partners alike. This paper suggests six nuclear deterrence reforms that NATO should consider following the Warsaw Summit in July 2016 in order to regain the credibility it once had during the Cold War.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, Nuclear Weapons, and Deterrence
Political Geography:: Europe, North Atlantic, and North America

4738. A Changing Security Paradigm. New Roles for New Actors – The Russian Approach

Author:: Miroslaw Banasik
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Connections
Institution:: Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:: The success of the Russian Federation in Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea attest to the fact that the hybrid warfare constitutes an effective tool for achieving political objectives. This article evaluates the nature of hybrid warfare based on theoretical publications on the art of war and doctrinal documents of the Russian Federation, and characterizes the practical dimensions of hybrid warfare. It can be concluded on that basis that hybrid warfare and organized crime constitute real threats to European safety and security. International organizations such as NATO and the European Union so far have not drawn up neither the strategy nor effective tools for countering these phenomena.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Military Strategy, European Union, and Hybrid Warfare
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, North Atlantic, and North America

4739. Towards More Effective Cooperation? The Role of States in Shaping NATO-EU Interaction and Cooperation

Author:: Tinatin Aghniashvill
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Connections
Institution:: Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:: Effective cooperation between the European Union (EU) and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is not only desirable, but rather mandatory in this interdependent and interlinked World. The contemporary multifaceted security threats and challenges have diminished the importance of the national borders and made the members of the institutions almost equally vulnerable. Due to the inherited similarities among organizations, the perception of burden sharing seems natural. However, the existing cooperation framework leaves a big room for improvement. The article explores the factors limiting effective cooperation between the organizations and the analysis is derived from studying individual states’ (dual and non-dual members) behavior in shaping institutions’ interaction. The paper analyzes the roles of the EU and NATO during the Libyan crisis in the neighborhood of Europe and their interaction in Afghanistan – beyond the Euro-Atlantic area. The findings of the analysis show that some of the non-dual members of the organization “hold institutions hostage” ; fragmented positions of the dual members impede the elaboration of a holistic EU policy on crisis management (CSDP) and eventually, hamper formation of a joint EU-NATO strategic vision. Furthermore, lack of division of labor on the ground leads to overlapping of functions to certain extent and cooperation among institutions is better on operational rather than on the strategic level.
Topic:: Security, NATO, European Union, and Collective Defense
Political Geography:: Europe, North Atlantic, and North America

4740. Europe, Don't Let Us Down: Voices of refugees and migrants in Greece

Author:: Renata Rendon and Matta Samiou
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Since the beginning of 2015 more than one million migrants, including refugees, fleeing war, persecution, natural disasters and poverty, have travelled through Turkey to Greece in search of safety and a dignified life in Europe. Lacking safe and legal alternatives, they put their lives in the hands of smugglers and risk everything during perilous sea and land crossings. Oxfam and ActionAid have listened to hundreds of refugee and migrant women and men on Lesvos island, in Athens and in the Epirus region of northwest Greece to understand why they fled their countries, what their immediate needs are, and what they plan to do next. This paper presents the key messages that they want European people and their governments to hear.
Topic:: Migration, Refugees, Refugee Crisis, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Greece

4741. Hotspots, Rights Denied: The lack of a legal framework is threatening the rights of migrants reaching Italy

Author:: Guilia Capitani
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: The flow of migrants into Italy continues to be dealt with as an 'emergency' situation. The EU's 'hotspot' approach, outlined in the European Agenda for Migration of May 2015 as a short-term measure, has been implemented in Italy and Greece and is an approach involving EU officers, in collaboration with national authorities, in the identification, fingerprinting and registration of migrants. This paper from Oxfam Italia examines the hotspot approach in Italy through the experiences of humanitarian agencies and civil society organizations on the ground, and through the voices of migrants themselves. It concludes that, due to the lack of a legal framework, the hotspot approach seriously violates the fundamental rights of people reaching Italian shores. Oxfam calls for the Italian government and the European Union to define hotspot procedures and activities in EU and national regulations and to take medium-term action to expand the capacity of the receiving and support systems in Italy.
Topic:: Migration, Diaspora, Immigration, Refugees, and Legal Theory
Political Geography:: Europe, Greece, Italy, and Mediterranean

4742. Closed Borders: The impact of border closures on people on the move, with a focus on women and children in Serbia and Macedonia

Author:: Oxfam Publishing
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: In 2015 there was a huge increase in the number of migrants, including refugees, arriving in Greece and travelling along the Balkan route on their way to destination countries further north. According to UNHCR, more than one million refugees and migrants crossed the Mediterranean in 2015. This report looks at the protection concerns of people on the move, especially women and children, in Macedonia and Serbia following the closure of the Balkan route. It is based on research and information gathered by Oxfam and its partners: the Belgrade Centre for Human Rights and Atina in Serbia, and the Macedonian Young Lawyer Association and Open Gate/ La Strada in Macedonia. The report includes recommendations on how to protect and promote their safety, dignity and human rights.
Topic:: Human Rights, Migration, Refugees, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe, Serbia, and Macedonia

4743. Poland at the Crossroads Between Authoritarianism and Democracy

Author:: Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:: Symbolic ensembles that are often displayed in the public sphere by right-wing populists are “thick” in this sense. They include many inter-locked symbols that – in combination – allow for a narrower range of possible interpretations and thus attract a smaller, in this case right wing leaning group of people. They constitute the symbolic base of Polish thick populism, an exclusionary and polarizing political-cultural formation, that at the moment is supported by well over one third of the Polish population, controls the government, and slowly dismantles Polish liberal democracy.
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Democracy, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, and Poland

4744. CETA Without Blinders: How Cutting ‘Trade Costs and More’ Will Cause Unemployment, Inequality and Welfare Losses

Author:: Pierre Kohler and Servaas Storm
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
Abstract:: Proponents of the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) emphasize its prospective economic benefits, with economic growth increasing due to rising trade volumes and investment. Widely cited official projections suggest modest GDP gains after about a decade, varying from between 0.003% to 0.08% in the European Union and between 0.03% to 0.76% in Canada. However, all these quantitative projections stem from the same trade model, which assumes full employment and neutral (if not constant) income distribution in all countries, excluding from the outset any of the major risks of deeper liberalization. This lack of intellectual diversity and of realism shrouding the debate around CETA’s alleged economic benefits calls for an alternative assessment grounded in more realistic modeling premises. In this paper, we provide alternative projections of CETA’s economic effects using the United Nations Global Policy Model (GPM). Allowing for changes in employment and income distribution, we obtain very different results. In contrast to positive outcomes projected with full-employment models, we find CETA will lead to intra-EU trade diversion. More importantly, in the current context of tepid economic growth, competitive pressures induced by CETA will cause unemployment, inequality and welfare losses. At a minimum, this shows that official studies do not offer a solid basis for an informed decision on CETA.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, European Union, GDP, and Diversity
Political Geography:: Europe

4745. ‘Keep Calm and Carry on’? Resilience and UK Security Policies

Author:: Sarah Ponesch
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:: In the UK context of National Security Strategies and Critical National Infrastructure Protection, resilience is understood as a result of, or an answer to, an ever changing, complex and interconnected world in which even a tiny event can have a huge impact. Resilience incorporates the need to adapt to an almost infinite variety of hazards and risks and could therefore be called an all-hazards approach in the wider realm of security. However, an analysis of UK security policy documents and qualitative in-depth interviews with a variety of stakeholders shows it is more than that. Resilience is framed as a means to address change in general. It includes not only the negative aspects of globalisation but also its opportunities. Moreover, resilience is understood as a whole-of-government, if not whole-of-nation attempt to ‘connect the dots’ and overcome the ‘silo thinking’ in order to see the ‘bigger picture’. Therefore, resilience, in the UK, is often understood as a form of culture rather than a tool, instrument, concept or approach. In order for it to ‘function’, resilience has to overcome and reach beyond simple top-down or bottom-up approaches. It has to be lived.
Topic:: Security, Globalization, and Resilience
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

4746. Getting tough with the dragon? The comparative correlates of foreign policy attitudes toward China in the United States and UK

Author:: Thomas J. Scotto and Jason Reifler
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Relations of the Asia-Pacific
Institution:: Japan Association of International Relations
Abstract:: A large body of research suggests mass publics are capable of thinking coherently about international relations. We extend this body of research to show that domain relevant postures – in our case, more abstract beliefs about foreign policy – are related to how tough of a line representative samples of US and UK respondents want their governments to take toward China. More specifically, we utilize a unique comparative survey of American and British foreign policy attitudes to show broad support for toughness toward China. Beliefs about the use of the military and attitudes regarding globalization help explain preferences for tough economic and military policies toward China. In the two countries, the relationship between general foreign policy outlooks and the positions citizens take is robust to the addition of a general mediator that controls for the general affect those surveyed have toward China. Finally, the strength of the relationship between these abstract postures and specific preferences for a China policy are different across the countries.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Military Affairs, Political Science, and Economic Policy
Political Geography:: China, United Kingdom, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America

4747. Neoliberal Policy Implementation Goes Hand in Hand with Stronger Symbolic Boundaries

Author:: Jonathan Mijs and Michèle Lamont
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: Citizens in countries that implemented more rigorous neoliberal policies over the last two decades (1990 to 2010) draw stronger symbolic boundaries between themselves and unwanted others. Based on publicly available data from the European Values Study, our research suggests that neoliberal policy implementation is intricately related to the ways in which citizens define worthiness. We find that in central and eastern Europe, the adoption of neoliberalism goes together with weakening boundaries toward ethnic others and a strengthening of animosity toward the poor, who are increasingly described as lazy and undeserving of government help. Conversely, in western Europe we find a weakening of boundaries toward the poor, but a strengthening of animosity toward ethno-religious others, Muslims in particular: citizens increasingly do not want Muslims as their neighbors. The trends we observe are supported by studies describing European citizens’ stance toward the (undeserving) poor, on the one side, and research on anti-immigrant sentiments, the rise of nativism, and the vote for extreme right parties, on the other. The contribution of our project is to offer a framework that describes these trends as two facets of symbolic boundaries and to link these to the uneven rate of implementation of neoliberal policies across European societies.
Topic:: Poverty, Religion, Sociology, and Neoliberalism
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, and Western Europe

4748. Background to Brexit: One-Size-Fits-All Monetary Policy and the Eurozone Crisis

Author:: Amanda Pearson
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: After months of vitriolic campaigns, on June 23 voters began to emerge from polling stations throughout the United Kingdom having cast their ballots in a nationwide referendum on European Union (EU) membership. The possibility of a British exit, or “Brexit,” has shined a spotlight on the institutional, political, and economic woes of the EU and the eurozone. But for political economist Jeffry Frieden, Stanfield Professor of International Peace at Harvard University, this moment in British political life is merely the latest expression of domestic political unrest in a host of European countries. Elections loom throughout Europe: in Spain three days after the UK referendum, in France and Germany next year. In a final irony, Britain is due to take the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union in July 2017. What does the future look like for a European Union tethered to a single market and a single currency? From the economic woes of the eurozone, to the political debates brought about by the refugee crisis, tension among EU member states has brought into question the very nature and future of European integration generally, and of monetary integration specifically.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, Europe Union, Brexit, and Eurozone
Political Geography:: Europe

4749. Background to Brexit: Populism, Nationalism, and the Politics of Resentment

Author:: Bart Bonikowski
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: Harvard sociologist Bart Bonikowski explains why Brexit has two important lessons for political analysis on both sides of the Atlantic
Topic:: Nationalism, Regional Cooperation, European Union, Brexit, and Populism
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

4750. he World That Awaits President-Elect Trump

Author:: Michelle Nicholasen
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: During the 2016 primaries, Donald Trump claimed he had more foreign policy experience than any of the GOP contenders. In fact, he has traveled widely to meet with presidents, prime ministers, financiers, and developers over the past decade as part of his highly profitable business of licensing the Trump name to large real estate developments around the world. On the campaign trail, Trump’s provocative statements about foreign policy have become part of the public record. From pressuring NAFTA members to bombing ISIS, his pledges have caused a stir in the arena of foreign relations. Publicly, candidate Trump threatened to close borders to Mexicans, slap tariffs on Chinese goods, restrict Muslims in the United States, among other vows. Without a record of public service to draw on, it is difficult to know how these declarations might translate into a Trump foreign policy. To understand what lies ahead for the new president, the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs asked its Faculty Associates in international relations to comment on the challenges and opportunities that await in five regions of the world: Africa, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), Latin America, Europe, and China.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Elections, ISIS, and NAFTA
Political Geography:: Africa, United States, China, Europe, Middle East, Asia, Latin America, and North America

4751. Policy Change for the Displaced Kurds in Turkey: Europeanization and Conditionality

Author:: Onder Canveren
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Journal of Middle Eastern Studies
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: International and regional organizations can act as persuasive actors with re- gard to minority rights in a given country by raising awareness, putting the issue on agenda, and endorsing a new platform in a country which may lead to a policy change. Despite the general observation that Turkey’s Europeanizati- on process has had limited impact on the minority issues in Turkey, there are numerous examples that the European Union (EU) has played a constructive role in improving of rights and fundamental freedoms for the Kurdish populace living in Turkey. The Law on Compensation for Damage Arising from Terror passed in 2004 is a case worth addressing in order to ascertain both the symbo- lic and discursive policy change. The aim of this article is to explain how the EU used democratic tools to promote change in Turkey’s political structure for the displaced Kurds. The Europeanization of Turkey, based on specific con- ditionality, is taken as primarily responsible for granted for the shift and the policy change. In this policy-oriented case study, hypotheses from Rationalist and Constructivist Approaches in Europeanization literature are investigated to explain the causes and constitutive relations of the policy shift from repudiate to compensation.
Topic:: Migration, Regional Cooperation, Minorities, and European Union
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Asia

4752. Volume 66 Issue 1

Author:: Haluk Alkan
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:: Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:: Istanbul Journal of Economics-İstanbul İktisat Dergisi is an open access, peer-reviewed, scholarly journal published two times a year in June and December. It has been an official publication of Istanbul University Faculty of Economics since 1939. The manuscripts submitted for publication in the journal must be scientific and original work in Turkish or English. Being one of the earliest peer-reviewed academic journals in Turkey in the area of economics, Istanbul Journal of Economics-İstanbul İktisat Dergisi aims to provide a forum for exploring issues in basicly economics and publish both disciplinary and multidisciplinary articles. Economics is the main scope of the journal. However, multidisciplinary and comparative approaches are encouraged as well and articles from various social science areas such as sociology of economics, history, social policy, international relations, financial studies are welcomed in this regard. The target group of the journal consists of academicians, researchers, professionals, students, related professional and academic bodies and institutions.
Topic:: Economics, International Political Economy, Income Inequality, and Political Science
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Global Focus

4753. The Global Politics of Gay Rights: The Straining Relations between the West and Africa

Author:: Hakeem Onapajo
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: This article analyses the contemporary global politics of gay rights as it relates to the straining relations between the Western powers and many African states that oppose sexual minorities’ rights. While the West (with emphasis on the United States, EU, and Britain) advocates for the protection of gay rights in the world, Africa provides the largest concentration of states opposed to them. Therefore, there has been rising tension between both regions. This became more apparent after Nigeria and Uganda, respectively, signed their anti-gay bills into law in January and February 2014. In response to this, the Western powers decided to take some punitive measures, especially imposition of sanctions, against the countries to pressurise them to repeal their laws. In an unusual manner, the African states are radically determined to go ahead with their anti-gay laws in open defiance to the demands of the Western powers. This development, which is informed by a number of factors, shows a rather new pattern of behaviour by African states in global politics.
Topic:: Minorities, LGBT+, Sexuality, and Gay Rights
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, North America, and United States of America

4754. Financial Development and Economic Growth in European Countries: Bootstrap Causality Analysis

Author:: Fuat Lebe
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: In the present study, it was investigated whether there was a causality relationship between financial development and economic growth for sixteen European countries. Data from the period of 1988-2012 was analyzed using the bootstrap panel causality test, which takes cross-section dependence and heterogeneity into account. The results of the test showed that there was a strong causality relationship between financial development and economic growth in European countries. In European countries, there was a causality relationship from economic growth to financial development and from financial development to economic growth. These results support both the supply-leading and the demand-following hypotheses. Therefore, it can be said that the feedback hypothesis is valid for European countries.
Topic:: Development, Regional Cooperation, Economic Growth, and Financial Development
Political Geography:: Europe

4755. Complaint Calls as a Proxy for Perceived Quality: The Turkish Dishwasher Demand Estimation

Author:: Çağlar Yurtseven
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: The paper estimates dishwasher demand and supply in Turkey. The constructed Stackelberg type oligopolistic competition, with its strong testable implications is demonstrated to be consistent with a stable market composed of a leader firm and followers. The paper has an important contribution to demand estimation literature as well. The complaint calls rate for a product is offered and shown to be a valid proxy to help the problem of omitted variable bias due to the unobserved characteristics as perceived quality or after sale service quality. Elasticities calculated for each demand determinant can help durable good firms in emerging countries to use their investment and marketing resources more efficiently.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Demand, Supply, and Consumerism
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Asia

4756. The Role of Contesting Ideologies: Civil-Military Relations in Turkey

Author:: Rahman Dag
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: Civil-military relationship is generally examined through the use of an institutional approach or theories (concordance) that emphasise the salience of power struggles and social cohesion. These contributions are important but often exclude the role of contesting ideologies. To address this gap, this paper takes an ideological approach to address civil-military relations in Turkey. The analyses commence with the military reforms of the Ottoman Empire in the late 19th century and the Republican period. The paper argues that modernization projects of the Empire paved the way for military superiority which turned into being saviour and founders of the Republic. It then moves to consider the ideological parameters that coloured the military establishment, arguing that the target of modernization was itself systemized and internalized into Kemalist ideology and the duty to preserve this remains inculcated in the contemporary military establishment.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Military Affairs, Coup, and Civil-Military Relations
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Asia

4757. Civil society institutions crucial in securing human rights and freedoms

Author:: Bakhrom Babaev
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:: Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:: A roundtable discussion has taken place in Paris to deliberate on the experience of Uzbekistan and France in civil society development The event was organized by the diplomatic mission of Uzbekistan in collaboration with the Institute for Forecasting and Security in Europe (IPSE). Representatives of socio-political, expert-analytical circles and non-state sector of France attended the occasion. Event participants were familiarized with large-scale efforts undertaken in Uzbekistan in encouraging the development of civil society institutions, consolidation of their role and significance in public affairs, in augmenting the socio-economic activity and law culture of the population, ensuring human rights, freedoms and legitimate interests. Organizational and normative measures approved in the framework of implementation of the Concept of Intensification of Democratic Reforms and Formation of Civil Society in the Country triggered keen interest among French experts.
Topic:: Civil Society, Human Rights, Institutions, and Freedom
Political Geography:: Europe, Central Asia, France, and Uzbekistan

4758. Silencing the Guns: Mediation practices and contemporary wars

Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: From 26 to 27 October 2016, the African Union (AU), in collaboration with the Government of the Arab Republic of Egypt, hosted the 7th AU High-level Retreat of Special Envoys and Mediators on the Promotion of Peace, Security and Stability in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt (Sharm El Sheikh Retreat). Co-organised by the African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD), and the Cairo Center for Conflict Resolution and Peacekeeping in Africa (CCCPA), the retreat brought together a range of senior representatives from the AU Commission (AUC), including the Commissioner for Peace and Security, Special Envoys, Special Representatives and distinguished mediators. Also in attendance were senior representatives of the continent’s regional economic communities (RECs) and regional mechanisms (RMs), as well as eminent officials from the United Nations (UN), European Union (EU), League of Arab States (LAS) and civil society organisations (CSOs).
Topic:: United Nations, International Security, Europe Union, Peace, African Union, and Arab League
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Middle East, and North Africa

4759. The Economic Impact of Bath Spa University

Author:: Oxford Economics
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Case Study
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: Bath Spa University supported over 2,050 jobs in Bath and North East Somerset in 2014/15 – equivalent to one in every 49 jobs in the district. The University itself employs 966 people. This makes it the fifth largest employer in Bath and North East Somerset. It is considerably more than are employed by some of the city’s most famous institutions. In total, the University generated a value-added contribution of £93.9 million to the Bath and North East Somerset economy in 2014/15. This is equivalent to 2.0 percent of the district’s economic output. Of this, the University supported a £51.7 million contribution and the University’s additional students and their visitors the remaining £41.7 million contribution to GDP. In 2014/15, Bath Spa University made a total tax contribution of £21.1 million to the UK Exchequer. This could fund the Royal United Hospital’s and Royal National Hospital for Rheumatic Diseases’ running cost for about a month.
Topic:: Economics, Education, Labor Issues, Employment, Tax Systems, and Higher Education
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

4760. The Economic Impact of London Luton Airport

Author:: Oxford Economics
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: London Luton Airport Limited and London Luton Airport Operations Limited commissioned Oxford Economics to undertake an analysis of the nature and scale of the economic impact of London Luton Airport on the UK as a whole, and on the surrounding sub-regional and local economies. The report sets out the results of that analysis, measuring the economic contribution of the airport in terms of jobs created, contribution to GDP and government tax receipts. We present results for the value of this impact in 2013 and forecast it out to 2030 under two scenarios for the future of the airport. The report goes on to explore the value that London Luton Airport creates for its passengers by offering them cheap and local air transport, and by relieving pressure on the air transport system elsewhere in the south east of England.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Labor Issues, Economic Growth, Transportation, and Airline Companies
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, and London

4761. Economic Valuation of the Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew

Author:: Oxford Economics
Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: This study assesses the total economic value generated by the Royal Botanic Gardens (RBG), Kew. It considers a range of benefits, including the value accruing to visitors; the value attributed to Kew by non-users; educational benefits for visiting students; and productivity benefits which result from RBG Kew’s scientific research. We find that RBG generated a total of £182 million of economic value for the UK in 2014/15. A further £8 million of value accrues to international visitors and students. This valuation should be regarded as conservative since it does not incorporate some important areas of RBG Kew's work, such as the ‘insurance’ value and potential future economic value of species held in RBG Kew’s scientific collections; the benefits of increased planting activity encouraged amongst the wider UK population; and the international value of RBG Kew’s scientific research. The latter, in particular, could be very substantial, both because of the large contribution Kew makes to the infrastructure upon which large swathes of plant biology research around the world rely, and because much of RBG Kew’s conservation and other applied work primarily benefits other countries.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Tourism, Conservatism, and Economic Development
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

4762. The Recruitment of Migrant Workers By London Science and Technology Firms

Author:: Oxford Economics
Publication Date:: 08-2016
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: Access to talent is central to London’s competitiveness. It is important that all companies can recruit the skills and experience they need to innovate and grow. Tier 2 of the UK’s visa system is the main economic route for skilled immigration from outside the European Economic Area (EEA), where the position cannot be filled by a UK/EEA national or is on the Shortage Occupation List. This report assesses the extent to which start-ups and SMEs, particularly those in the science and technology sectors, have difficulties in recruiting from outside the EEA through Tier 2. It finds that while some firms are undoubtedly facing challenges, the problem is not especially widespread across the science and technology sector as a whole. However, at least some employers are encountering difficulties with Tier 2 and a faster, better-supported, and simpler process would make a real difference to employers.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Labor Issues, Employment, and Migrant Workers
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

4763. Consumer Detriment: Counting the Cost if Consumer Problems

Author:: Oxford Economics
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: Every year, millions of UK consumers suffer from some form of consumer detriment, be it a delayed delivery, substandard service or the purchase of a faulty item. Such experiences are a familiar feature of everyday lives, but quantifying the scale and impact of these experiences for UK consumers in a systematic way is a complex task. This research project takes account of the monetary and time costs of consumer detriment, as well as compensation, to arrive at a considered estimate of total net cost for the UK population. This valuation incorporates three core elements. Firstly, it calculates the direct monetary costs borne by consumers who experience problems. These might be cash outlays caused by the problem itself (for example, when a broken toy is simply written off or when a poorly fitted boiler causes knock-on problems that have further costs) as well as any resulting loss of earnings. Secondly, it calculates the value of any leisure time given up by the consumer in experiencing or attempting to resolve the issue, so-called ‘time costs’, which might include things like time wasted on a delayed train, or time spent in a phone queue to get through to customer services. Thirdly, it calculates any compensation payments awarded in light of any claims made by the consumer, and subtracts these from the monetary and time costs described above. This approach seeks to present a comprehensive picture of UK consumer detriment, both larger and smaller problems.
Topic:: Markets, Services, Customer Service, and Consumerism
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

4764. Economic Discourse and the European Integration of Financial Infrastructures and Financial Markets

Author:: Troels Krarup
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
Abstract:: European integration of financial markets appears to repeatedly encounter specific kinds of problems about the substance and limits of the notion of “the market” undergoing integration, and about the status and role of money, market infrastructures, and government within it. Moreover, these problems and the controversies around them parallel classical discussions in economic theory such as that between conceptions of the market as a frictionless space and as a process of competition. A “competitive conception of the market” is identified as producing these parallel problems and controversies in European market integration and economic theory because it implies a contradictory “integration of fragmentation.” These themes and parallels can be specifically identified in a recent major project to integrate financial market infrastructures: a pan-European settlement platform – “Target2-Securities (T2S)” – to overcome existing fragmentation between the systems that perform the actual delivery of money and securities from financial transactions. Moreover, a close analysis of T2S answers a question that existing sociological and political economy approaches to European integration – focusing primarily on the interests and ideas of powerful players – struggle with: why T2S will become de facto a monopoly for the European Central Bank when early on in the integration process EU institutions emphasized an industry-led integration. Foucault’s notion of “discursive formation” is employed to conceptualize these arguments.
Topic:: Economics, International Political Economy, Finance, Financial Markets, Economic Theory, and Michel Foucault
Political Geography:: Europe

4765. Romanian–British Commercial Exchanges at the Lower Danube: The Consular Report of Percy Sanderson on the Year 1883

Author:: Cristian Constantin
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Hiperboreea
Institution:: Balkan History Association
Abstract:: Researchers consider that the slight increase in commerce through Brăila and Galaţi after 1883 was mainly due to the reorientation of Romanian foreign trade by the dualist monarchy towards other European states. The Danube route-way regained some of its importance, although the port of Galaţi still suffered after the loss of the rich region of Southern Bessarabia and because of the inconvenient manner by which the town was linked to the Romanian railway system. Thus, the paper insists on the quantity and value of commercial exchanges (exports, imports), the grains, the main economic partners and the specific character of Brăila, Galaţi and Sulina in the Romanian economy. This study analyses the results of this fact upon the foreign commerce of the ports, as there are opinions that it had positive consequences for development of commerce and navigation at the Maritime Danube. The text proper is preceded by a short historical comment on the activity of the International Trade in the Lower Danube region.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, Maritime Commerce, and Trade
Political Geography:: Britain, Europe, Balkans, and Romania

4766. The Collapse of Saudi Arabia and the Cataclysmic Power Shift in the Middle East

Author:: Elihugh M. Abner
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: This article points out the cataclysmic power shift that would take place in the event of Saudi Arabia’s descent into political turmoil, and briefly covers some of the catalysts that could bring about such an event. Overall, the oppressive policies towards the Shia minority carried out by the Sunni-dominated Saudi monarchy are detrimental to the country’s national security. The religious disparities in the country have given the monarchy’s enemies—primarily Iran and Russia—a weakness to exploit. This article does not give evidence of any clandestine operations taking place within the Kingdom; however, it gives evidence that Iran and Russia have much to gain and virtually nothing to lose if the country was to spiral into violence like so many others in the region.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, National Security, Fragile/Failed State, and Political stability
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, and Saudi Arabia

4767. Setting Priorities for Nuclear Modernization

Author:: Lawrence Korb and Adam Mount
Publication Date:: 02-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: n the next decade, the United States will have to make decisions that will shape its nuclear arsenal for much of the next century. Nearly every missile, submarine, aircraft, and warhead in the U.S. arsenal is nearing the end of its service life and must be replaced. As Congress and the Obama administration continue to wrestle with the effects of sequestration on projected levels of defense spending, the U.S. Department of Defense has begun a series of procurement programs that will nearly double the amount the country spends on its nuclear deterrent in the next decade compared to what it spent in the past decade. Over the next 30 years, the cost of the nuclear deterrent could pass $1 trillion and crowd out defense and domestic investments needed to keep the United States strong and competitive. In addition, it could undermine U.S. credibility on the issue of nuclear proliferation—especially when it comes to dealing with regimes such as Russia, China, and North Korea.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, and Denuclearization
Political Geography:: Russia, Japan, China, Europe, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

4768. Building a New Foundation for Stability in Libya

Author:: William Danvers
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: For almost five years, Libyans have struggled to build a new political order for their country out of the wreckage left by Moammar Gadhafi’s four-decade dictatorship. Despite successful national elections in July 2012, political factions backed by various militias have sought power at the expense of their rivals. As a result, Libya’s oil production and, consequently, its economy have collapsed along with any semblance of a post-Gadhafi political order. This violent struggle for power has created a security vacuum, filled in part by the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham, or ISIS, and various Al Qaeda-linked terrorist groups, such as Ansar al-Sharia. In the past year, Libya has become a strategic location for ISIS. Due to coalition military pressure, the group has told recruits to head for Sirte in Libya rather than stay in Syria or Iraq. The growing presence of ISIS in Libya—now estimated to total as many as 6,500 fighters—represents a direct security threat to the United States and its allies in Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa.
Topic:: Security, ISIS, Political stability, and State Building
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Middle East, Libya, and North America

4769. Writing the Future of Germany: Progressive Politics in Turbulent Times

Author:: Sigmar Gabriel
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: Europe has reached a turning point in history. 2015 marks the end of a European era that began with an entire continent embarking on a new age of progress. Twenty-five peaceful years since the fall of the Berlin Wall had raised everyone’s hopes, and the future of Europe seemed to promise democracy, prosperity, security, and stability. Now, these hopes have been replaced by uncertainty. Francis Fukuyama’s “end of history” with the anticipated triumph of liberal Western-style democracy, its normative consensus, and its market-oriented economy has not come about. Instead of a world of peace and progress, we are experiencing a world of uncertainty and insecurity: The Ukraine crisis has brought war back to Europe. The Greece debt crisis brought the eurozone to the brink of failure. The nihilist murderers of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham, or ISIS, are exporting their terror to Europe—a continent that at the same time appears incapable of finding a common response to millions of refugees seeking protection and a new home in Europe. What’s more, although a unified Europe was blessed with many years of growing prosperity after the founding treaties of the European Union were signed, the Europe of today is economically and politically instable and increasingly perceived as a source of incalculable risks.
Topic:: Security, Counter-terrorism, Refugees, and Economic Policy
Political Geography:: Europe, Germany, and Central Europe

4770. Supporting Global Food Security in a Changing Climate Through Transatlantic Cooperation

Author:: Michael Werz
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: Policy communities in the United States and Europe are increasingly identifying climate change, environmental deterioration, water management, and food security as key concerns for development and global governance. The interplay of these trends is visible in the upheavals across the Middle East, with food riots and water disputes illuminating the region’s food insecurity. In the five years before the uprising in Syria, for example, the country experienced one of the worst droughts on record, which decimated wheat production and wiped out livestock. In Yemen, tensions—and outright conflicts—over water rights and illegal wells underpin the ongoing insecurity and anti-government sentiment. There is little question that the effects of climate change will cause more extreme weather events and crop insecurity in the decades to come, and it is reasonable to expect that they will magnify such dangerous problems. A few years ago, the complex interplay of several factors—including droughts in major grain- and cereal-producing regions, increases in biofuel production that reduced grain supplies, and other long-term structural problems—triggered the 2007-2008 world food crisis. The disruptions that this crisis caused affected both developed and developing countries, creating political and economic instability around the world and contributing to social unrest. The crisis highlighted the critical importance of better understanding the interdependencies and cascading effects of decisions made throughout the global food system, as well as how climate change could exacerbate such challenges. The increasing urgency of food and climate security requires greater international cooperation and, more specifically, innovative and forward looking transatlantic policy responses to address these pressing issues. Over the past decade, the links between climate change, food security, and political instability have steadily risen on the global policy agenda, and both adelphi and the Center for American Progress have played a role in bringing attention to their importance. CAP has conducted significant research and analysis on the security effects of climate change, including its effect on human mobility, and has elevated these issues in Washington, D.C. For its part, adelphi has a long track record of raising climate security issues in Europe and in 2015 led an international consortium that prepared a report and knowledge platform for the Group of Seven, or G-7, nations on climate change’s effect on state fragility.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Governance, Food Security, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, Atlantic Ocean, and United States of America

4771. Turkey at the Heart of the Storm

Author:: E. Fuat Keyman
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: More than two decades ago, Zbigniew Brzezinski alerted the world to a “global turmoil” steadily eroding the West’s ability to respond to major global challenges. Since then, the West has been gripped by multiple crises of globalization, manifested in myriad security, economic, humanitarian, and environmental challenges. The most recent additions to this litany include the dire refugee problem and the brutality of the Islamic State, or IS. Both the refugee crisis and IS have emerged from failed states, particularly Syria and Iraq, and are exacerbated by geopolitical power games, a lack of hegemonic leadership in the region, sectarianism, and the absence of inclusive and rules-based institutions of good governance. Yet while the crises interact and have similar root causes, they are driven by different actors with different intentions. While the European Union has focused on addressing the symptoms of the refugee crisis, the war against IS is driven by the United States, Russia, Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf states, which are less affected by the refugee crisis. Only Turkey has a place at the heart of both crises. It is affected by the security and economic fallout of the current regional instability and will be a pivotal actor in any effective responses to the two crises. Western leaders—most crucially in Washington, D.C., and Ankara—should not think of Turkey as a buffer state used simply to manage the spillover from Syria and Iraq but rather as a proactive partner in any effort to address the root causes of these crises. But Turkey faces its own domestic and foreign challenges, which undermine its ability to respond to the turmoil. The Turkish government should take four steps to help improve its response
Topic:: Fragile/Failed State, European Union, Refugee Crisis, ISIS, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Europe, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Asia, and Saudi Arabia

4772. What Is Really Happening to Turkish Media?

Author:: Mustafa Akyol
Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: The crackdown on Turkey’s media freedom has become notorious across the globe. Yet the exact mechanisms behind this problem, and the political purposes they serve, are not always apparent. This essay offers a snapshot of what is happening to the Turkish media and what it means for the future of Turkish democracy. Here are the basics: Over the past 10 years, dozens of Turkish journalists have been jailed for months or sometimes years. Meanwhile, hundreds of others have been pushed out of their jobs for reasons other than the normal dynamics of journalism. And despite their diverse ideological backgrounds, all of these unlucky journalists had one simple common trait: They were critical of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his political movement led by the incumbent Justice and Development Party, or AKP. The mechanisms behind this crackdown operate on both the legal level and the political-economic level. On the legal level, journalists are prosecuted and sometimes jailed for various so-called crimes. These crimes have nothing to do with journalism, government spokespeople typically insist in the face of criticisms, but are serious offenses such as “being a member of terrorist organization,” “spreading terrorist propaganda,” or “taking part in a coup plot.” These alleged crimes, however, are committed only through headlines, news stories, or op-eds that supposedly help terrorists and coup makers—all, of course, adversaries of President Erdoğan.
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Media, Journalism, Repression, and The Press
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Asia

4773. Is Erdoğan Holding Europe Hostage?

Author:: Behlül Özkan
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: In many ways, Turkey is the most important actor shaping the refugee crisis that is currently shaking Europe to its core. Accordingly, predicting the outcome of the drama requires a close study of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s underlying motives and goals. At present, there are nearly 3 million Syrian refugees in Turkey, which shares a 60-mile border with parts of Syria controlled by the Islamic State, or IS. For both the Syrian refugees and IS, Turkey is the door to the West, and President Erdoğan is the final arbiter of Turkish refugee and border security policy. The Turkish president is well aware of the power he derives from this position. An examination of his public statements and negotiating positions makes clear that Erdoğan seeks to use this leverage to compel the international community to set up safe zones in Syria and to force the European Union to widen access to Turkey while abandoning attempts to hold Turkey to EU standards on democracy and human rights.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Refugee Crisis, Europe Union, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Asia

4774. The Crisis in Turkish-Russian Relations

Author:: Soli Ozel
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: On November 24, 2015, despite multiple warnings from Turkish air patrols, a Russian SU-24 aircraft that violated Turkish airspace for 17 seconds was shot down by a Turkish F-16 fighter jet. The Russians denied that they were ever in Turkish airspace, while NATO corroborated the Turkish version. According to Turkish sources, there were repeated warnings for five minutes—which the Russians claimed they never received—and Turkey’s rules of engagement were well known to the Russians. One pilot was rescued by Russian special forces, but Turkmen rebels—trained and supplied by Turkey—on the ground across the border in Syria shot and killed the other as he was parachuting from the plane.* Turkish authorities immediately approached NATO for support, a move that reportedly infuriated Russian President Vladimir Putin, who called the downing of the plane “a stab in the back.” The Russian military claimed that the Turkish action was preplanned—an accusation the Turkish General Staff denied. After initially reiterating that its rules of engagement were clear, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan expressed sadness at the downing of the plane and his hope that the crisis could be resolved.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Turkey, and Asia

4775. Emerging Threats and New Trends in Turkish Foreign Policy

Author:: Galip Dalay
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: Turkey’s foreign policy during most of the republican era was informed by the security imperatives of the Cold War and the crises that ensued from the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s. These influences were coupled with the country’s republican elites crafting Turkey’s identity along the lines of strict secularism, militant nationalism, and a western orientation. As a status quo power, Turkey looked at its neighborhood through the lens of security, becoming highly sensitive to threats of all varieties and seeing itself in a hostile environment—if not surrounded by outright enemies. Upon coming to power in 2002, successive Justice and Development Party, or AKP, governments tried to change this understanding and minimize areas of friction with Turkey’s neighbors. During the early years, they adopted a utilitarian approach, attempting to develop mutual interests and opportunities and to create a degree of interdependency, particularly through economic exchange. This was expressed through then-Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu’s “zero problems with the neighbors” principle, which provided the intellectual architecture for much of Turkey’s foreign policy. The AKP sought to build an “economy first” approach, which it would later hope to leverage for political purposes. From the beginning of the AKP’s second term in 2007 to the early days of the Arab uprisings in late 2010 and into 2011, the party gradually expanded its ambitions and policy toward the Middle East through attempts to achieve regional integration and, later, to build an order centered on Turkey. All of these attempts sought to build on economic relations toward economic integration and political cooperation and were very much in line with the neofunctionalist approach to regional integration theories.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, Diplomacy, Military Affairs, European Union, and Arab Spring
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Asia

4776. Turkey’s Digital Divides

Author:: Max Hoffman
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: Turkey is emblematic of the promise of the digital revolution that is now sweeping through similarly emerging middle-income democracies around the world. Yet its approach to expanding internet penetration is shaped by its own set of political and social conditions. Wider internet access and use could contribute to a more dynamic Turkish economy that is driven by greater online competition and entrepreneurship. Turkey could likewise provide more efficient, responsive government services to more of its citizens by harnessing information and telecommunications technologies. But the efforts to reap these rewards are hindered by wide disparities in internet access and online literacy, as well as by very different customs that divide men and women, the old and the young, and urban and rural citizens. These divides are evident in the nation’s digital disparities and have roots in the country’s recent political history and social norms. At first glance, Turkey’s rapid but uneven economic development over the past several decades—with all of the accompanying social fissures—is akin to the experiences of other developing nations such as Albania, Chile, or Brazil. And Turkey, like other emerging middle-income democracies, is grappling with the need to privatize the internet and communications industries, which are often powerful political players with deep ties to ruling parties and with little interest in fostering serious online competition. But Turkey’s challenge of providing more internet accessibility at more affordable prices—a key step to becoming a full-fledged developed democratic nation and a new member of the European Union—faces obstacles that are particular to Turkey’s political economy. The ruling Justice and Development Party—more commonly referred to by its Turkish acronym, AKP—must calculate the political gains and losses of more widespread internet access, particularly for those conservative working-class rural voters who are the backbone of its political strength.
Topic:: Social Movement, Democracy, Internet, and Digital Revolution
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Asia

4777. Turkey-Iran Relations

Author:: Bülent Aras and Emirhan Yorulmazlar
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: Simplistic binary readings generally fail to explain the trajectory of Turkish-Iranian relations. The geostrategic rivalry between these two regional powers has deep historical roots, is subject to long-term patterns, and is amenable to realignments as a result of shifts in regional and international balances of power. For these reasons, assessing Turkish-Iranian relations requires a broader understanding than the prevalent narrow topical analysis provides.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: Europe, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, and Asia

4778. Exercising or Evading International Public Authority? The Many Faces of Environmental Post-Treaty Rules

Author:: Tim Staal
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law
Institution:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law
Abstract:: Post-treaty instruments (PTIs) are informal instruments adopted by consensus of the treaty parties as follow-up decision to a particular provision in a treaty. PTIs are potentially significant instruments for advancing environmental global governance, as the treaty parties may use them to transform indeterminate treaty provisions into more specific environmental rules and decisions. While a number of PTIs are rightly characterized as exercises of authority, this article seeks to demonstrate how certain environmental PTIs with rule-setting character (‘PTRs’) amount to evasions of authority by reducing international authority over States’ environmental policies, or alleviate rather than tighten the treaty parties’ obligations, through their content or legal status. First, some PTRs avoid authoritative language, requiring little or no concrete action by the treaty parties. Some treaty-based assignments to adopt PTRs are never even acted upon. Other PTRs simply water down the obligations of the treaty parties compared to the underlying treaty provisions. Second, PTRs possess an ambiguous legal status both in legal doctrine and in the practice of domestic and EU courts. The article further argues that consensual decision-making may well be at the root of this ambivalent practice. As a broader contribution to the debate about International Public Authority (IPA), the proposition is advanced that we need to scrutinize more carefully what kind and degree of authority an instrument exercises exactly – or not. Evasions of authority and alleviations of obligations – which can be conceived as a special type of exercising authority through inaction – have important implications for what future legal frameworks of international public law must deliver in terms of effective and legitimate procedural design.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Environment, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, Governance, and European Union
Political Geography:: Europe

4779. Judgement Day for ISIL and What It Would Mean for Canada

Author:: Dave Murray
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for the Study of Security and Development, Dalhousie University
Abstract:: Despite the carnage wrought by ISIL around the world, the days appear numbered for its caliphate in Syria and Iraq. We are likely talking the shorter to medium term at most. ISIL faces intense military pressure on all fronts. It continues to lose territory and its leadership figures are being targeted and killed. Increasingly ISIL faces significant challenges in replenishing its losses due to efforts by Turkey and most nations internationally to block the flow of foreign fighters into the caliphate. As leadership figures are eliminated, internal factionalism will create serious stresses and vulnerabilities. The forces aligned against ISIL are powerful, despite conflicting agendas. Add to this reports of financial problems, including a strained ability to pay its militants, and the result is a picture of an entity on a downward trajectory. This in no way means that the caliphate or its extremist message will die easily or that we are nearing an end to the scourge of ISIL inspired terrorism – only that its ability to sustain itself territorially has limits. If one accepts the above assessment, now is the time to consider what this will mean. Now is the time for thinking and planning directed at dealing with the eventual collapse of a self-proclaimed state in which countless thousands have been radicalized, traumatized, received military and terrorists training, let alone the reality of child soldiers and intense psychological scarring caused by ISIL.
Topic:: Terrorism, Radicalization, Islamic State, Conflict, and Foreign Fighters
Political Geography:: Iraq, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Canada, Syria, and United States of America

4780. The EU Commission and the Fragmentation of International Law: Speaking European in a Foreign Land

Author:: Avidan Kent
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law
Abstract:: The debate on the fragmentation of International Law has been relatively dormant in recent years. However, recent events demonstrate not only that this debate should be re-awoken, but also that some key elements of this debate must be reconsidered. Notably, while the fragmentation of International Law has often been discussed from the perspective of courts and judges, this article examines the view and the impact of a different institutional actor – the Commission of the European Union. This contribution analyzes a series of amicus briefs that were submitted in a number of investment treaties-based cases. These briefs, which were recently disclosed to the author, reflect a certain radicalization of the European Court of Justice’s view concerning the place and the role of the EU’s legal system within the international legal order. This article discusses the problematic implications that the Commission’s approach may have on the international legal order, as well as possible future pathways.
Topic:: Environment, Human Rights, International Cooperation, International Law, European Union, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe

4781. An Uncompleted Attempt at the End of the Nineteenth Century: The Shipping Company of Sakarya River

Author:: Ömer Karaoğlu
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Bilgi
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: XVIIth century and next periods were the years of the expansion of commercial capitalism by means of shipping trade. The activity of west in Mediterranean trade along the line a series of developments which constricted the Ottoman domination. At the beginning of the XIXth century, it was seen the expansion in foreign trade and financial dependence conjunction with the process of integration with western economies. In this process, the western countries experienced the significant improvements in the ship technology and sea transporting. The steamships moved to a new phase the superiority of western capitalism. The Ottoman State tried to develop the resistance by reforms in this new process. It was intended to improve the water resources of Anatolia and also to prevent damage to agricultural lands in accordance with the Tanzimat reforms. It was realised the public services in order to get benefit of the rivers to contribute to the national economy. The river transporting failed mostly. The old shipping technology was dependent on the wind directions. It could be done the transportation on the rivers such as Euphrates, Tigris, Nile and Danube. The shipping company of Sakarya river was aborted attempt in Ottoman territory. It was given the concession for this initiative that was started towards the end of Abdulaziz I (1861-1876) period but it was not ready for operating activities in the legal term. This study is the subject of this unfinished experiment.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Maritime Commerce, Water, and Shipping
Political Geography:: Europe, Asia, and Ottoman Empire

4782. Interrogating the “social life of methods” in critical approaches to security | Interroger la « vie sociale des méthodes » dans les approches critiques de la sécurité : expertise et enquête sur les questions de sécurité européenne

Author:: Julian Jeandesboz
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cultures & Conflits
Institution:: Cultures & Conflits
Abstract:: Research on the security politics of the European Union is becoming increasingly abundant. To further the aims of this special issue on methodology among critical approaches to security, this article draws on the appropriation by this scholarship of the “social life of methods” debate to open two related lines of investigation. First, the article examines the inscription of researchers into European security politics not only as a limit to research, but as a method of access and analysis. The article looks particularly at the identification of researchers as “experts” by EU practitioners, and at expertise as method. The second line of investigation and reflection concerns the limits inherent to the way in which critical scholarship on security has appropriated the “social life of methods” discussion. The article argues that this is an opportunity to engage with methods in relation to concrete research endeavors, rather than to stage a theoretical discussion on methods.
Topic:: Security, European Union, Methods, and Experts
Political Geography:: Europe

4783. Analyzing the field of security in Switzerland: Towards a hypertrophy of internal security and some methodological remarks | Analyse du champ de la sécurité en Suisse : vers une hypertrophie de la sécurité intérieure et autres réflexions méthodologiques

Author:: Stephan Davidshofer, Amal Tawfik, and Tobias Hagmann
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cultures & Conflits
Institution:: Cultures & Conflits
Abstract:: Investigating the possible emergence of a transnational field of security in Europe constitutes a very stimulating research venue for literature on critical approaches to security. However, the operationalization of such an agenda entails some challenges. Notably, time-consuming data collection and analytical processes are needed in order to fully grasp the characteristics and resources of numerous actors. Drawing on a research project funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNF), the aim of this paper is double. It offers both an analysis of the contemporary dynamics of the field of security in Switzerland and a presentation of practical solutions for researchers willing to conduct empirically-oriented studies of different settings of the transnational field of security in Europe. In order to do so, this contribution stands as a methodological roadmap, presenting the various steps leading to the construction of a national social space dedicated to “security issues”. Given the significant volume of data collected in this research project, a series of statistical analysis methods are mobilized in this paper: multiple correspondence analysis (MCA), principal component analysis (PCA), and network analysis. Lastly, in summarizing the project’s results, the paper points to the growing influence of transnational security dynamics on Swiss security actors.
Topic:: National Security, Statistics, and Methods
Political Geography:: Europe and Switzerland

4784. Producing Undesirables at the Border. Border Control Practices at a European Airport | La fabrique des indésirables Pratiques de contrôle aux frontières dans un aéroport européen

Author:: Andrew Crosby and Andrea Rea
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cultures & Conflits
Institution:: Cultures & Conflits
Abstract:: Based on empirical research in a European airport, this article analyses how border guards control third-country nationals by advancing an anthropology of the power of border control as exhibited by the use of symbolic violence and discretionary state power. Leaning on the theories of street-level bureaucracies and organizations, we analyze the work practices, professional routines and organization of the work of border guards in order to show how border guards activate and constitute the border and the control of mobility. We argue that control at the airport is based both on the influence of the network-border and on a dramaturgical performance of bureaucratic governance, which is meant to create legitimate travelers and undesirable passengers, while circumventing potential protests of the latter and simulating accountability toward the broader public of citizens. As such, border control is more of a symbolic act than an efficient tool of immigration policy.
Topic:: Immigration, Border Control, Borders, and Bureaucracy
Political Geography:: Europe

4785. The Russian Reality Check on Turkey's Gas Hub Hopes

Author:: Morena Skalamera
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: On Nov 24, 2015, Turkey shot down a Russian fighter jet after it veered into its airspace for 17 seconds. On December 13, a Russian ship fired warning shots at a Turkish vessel in the Aegean Sea. Bilateral tensions, with overt military dimensions, have seemed to quickly replace the goodwill that characterized relations only a year ago. Over the past few weeks, experts and observers have debated whether this incident will jeopardize deep Turkish-Russian energy cooperation—and whether newfound tensions between Moscow and Ankara will thwart Turkey’s ambition to transform itself into an energy hub. A closer look suggests grounds for both optimism and pessimism. Given the deep interests of both parties in continuing energy cooperation, and the mutual nature of the dependency, tensions over Syria are unlikely to adversely impact energy cooperation in a fundamental way. Turkey, however, is unlikely to realize its vision of an energy hub—not because of Russia, but because of a combination of domestic and other geopolitical factors.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Economics, Energy Policy, Oil, Geopolitics, Gas, and Trade
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Turkey

4786. On Political Forgiveness: Some Preliminary Reflections

Author:: Wendy Sherman
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: This policy brief examines political forgiveness, when countries or groups are able to reconcile or set aside historic enmities. The inability to overcome longstanding grievances—however justified and deeply rooted—often undermine a group’s or nation’s current core interests. This lack of forgiveness manifests throughout the world: tribal warfare in South Sudan, hostility between Saudi Arabia and Iran, seemingly irreconcilable differences within the European neighborhood, and the failure to reach a two-state solution between Israelis and Palestinians. Deep animus often seems to take precedence over interests. What conditions are necessary for political forgiveness, and through what process is it achieved? How is it that some countries, like Germany, have been able to find their way through this thicket, while others, such as Japan, have not—or at least not to a comparable extent? And, in cases of genocide, such as Rwanda, where political forgiveness may well be impossible, should the international community more purposefully examine the social license extended to victims? Ambassador Wendy Sherman makes the case that insights from frameworks of personal forgiveness can help nations seize the moment when their interests align and, accordingly, move to achieve political forgiveness. First, the process of forgiveness requires a sense of justice—victims must feel that perpetrators have been held accountable and will no longer be able to hurt them. It must also be a deep, extended undertaking: when perpetrators offer only superficial acknowledgments of the victims’ pain and attempt to move on quickly, victims perceive those efforts as perfunctory, even disingenuous. Additionally, countries must reestablish genuine, ongoing contact to overcome narratives of “the other” that inhibit forgiveness. They should not assume, however, that political forgiveness will proceed as a linear, three-part process in which the perpetrator issues an apology, the victim accepts the apology, and the two subsequently cultivate their ties on the basis of aligned national interests. This examination finds that the process works best in the reverse order: only upon discerning that their strategic interests happen to align do conflicting countries begin to move toward reconciliation and forgiveness.
Topic:: International Relations, Defense Policy, International Security, and Forgiveness
Political Geography:: Europe and Asia-Pacific

4787. Not Even in the Margins : Where are Roma with Disabilities?

Author:: Michael Szporluk
Publication Date:: 02-2016
Content Type:: Case Study
Institution:: European Centre for Minority Issues
Abstract:: A major campaign to raise awareness of conditions for Roma living in Central and South-East Europe, the Decade of Roma Inclusion 2005-2015, ended last fall. Governments made commitments, reported on progress, and civil society organizations monitored their work. The concluding report, A Lost Decade?, signals that results were mixed at best; yet for 15% of the population (i.e., persons with disabilities), there were no commitments, no reports, and no monitoring. For Roma with disabilities the decade didn’t start and lose momentum, it simply never happened. This study looks at the progress made through the Decade of Roma Inclusion (hereinafter Roma Decade) and European Union’s Framework for National Roma Integration Strategies (hereinafter EU Framework), provides information about Roma with disabilities, describes efforts to raise awareness of Roma with disabilities and protect their rights, and finally outlines the rights of ethnic minorities through an intersectional lens.
Topic:: Minorities, Ethnicity, Disability, Local, and Protected People
Political Geography:: Europe

4788. Dynamics of Integration in the OSCE Area: National Minorities and Bridge Building

Author:: European Centre for Minority Issues
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Case Study
Institution:: European Centre for Minority Issues
Abstract:: This Report has been compiled in support of the 2016 German OSCE Chairmanship’s focus on “the situation of national minorities in times of crisis, their positive contribution to social integration and their potential to build bridges in international relations.” The Report presents 24 positive initiatives at bridge building taken throughout the OSCE area, including seven examples of legal instruments in cross-border regions and 17 examples of projects covering a number of themes identified in the political, cultural and socio-economic sectors.
Topic:: Nationalism, Minorities, Ethnicity, Borders, and Integration
Political Geography:: Europe

4789. Minority Rights Governance: Avoiding the Pitfalls of Equal Treatment when Budgeting for Education

Author:: Tove H. Malloy
Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for Minority Issues
Abstract:: When governments are faced with economic crises, the education sector is often the first sector to experience budget reductions. This may hit educational programmes for minorities disproportionally harder, if austerity measures are applied equally across the board, as positive measures adopted as a result of minority protection schemes are more costly than regular educational programmes. Minority educational programmes incur higher cost per pupil due to additional and extra-curricula topics and activities aimed at preserving and promoting minority cultures. Cutting special programmes may inadvertently or perhaps deliberately lead governments to discriminate against minority pupils, who have enrolled in minority schools or programmes. Unfortunately, there is little guidance for policy makers and school principals in this regard. International human rights law instruments prescribe positive measures without explaining how these should be safeguarded during economic hard times. Only two international soft law documents provide some guidance with regard to education for minorities. This Issue Brief will examine the standards and guidance available in international law and put these in a perspective of actual practice of education for minorities in Europe. The main argument is that equal treatment or equal reductions across the board do not secure equality; equitable processes protecting positive measures are needed.
Topic:: Civil Society, Education, Governance, Minorities, Civil Rights, and Identity
Political Geography:: Europe

4790. Dynamic of Integration in the OSCE Area: National Minorities and Bridge Building

Author:: European Centre for Minority Issues
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: European Centre for Minority Issues
Abstract:: This Report is the main output of a project executed by the European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI) in cooperation with the European Academy Bolzano/Bozen (EURAC) and independent researcher Dr. Nina Bagdasarova. The project was developed at the request of the High Commissioner on National Minorities (HCNM) in response to the priorities set by the 2016 German OSCE Chairmanship. The project covered the period from March to December 2016, and preliminary results were presented at the Supplementary Human Dimension Meeting 10-11 November in Vienna while the final results were presented in a side event at the Ministerial Council 8-9 December in Hamburg. The research team would like to thank members of the HCNM office and OSCE missions for assisting it with dissemination of questionnaires, data collection and follow up as well as review of the Report. Any mistakes should be attributed to the research team, not the OSCE or HCNM staff
Topic:: Nationalism, Minorities, Peace, Integration, and Identity
Political Geography:: Europe

4791. Putting politics into international development? It’s about time

Author:: Charles Cadwell
Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Urban Institute
Abstract:: It may be difficult in the current political season to welcome news that international development agencies are paying more attention to the politics of reform when designing their assistance programs to poor countries. But we should be relieved that agencies like the World Bank, the UK’s Department for International Development, and our own US Agency for International Development are doing just that. For too long, aid programs operated with the convenient fiction that assistance work was purely technical. The premise of many programs was “simply transfer missing knowledge, skills, or cash to people in the foreign government or local organizations, and they could adopt policies and programs to promote growth and reduce poverty."
Topic:: Poverty, Foreign Aid, International Development, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:: Europe, Global Focus, and United States of America

4792. Calling a Spade a Spade: Canada's Use of Sanctions

Author:: Andrea Charron and Paul Aseltine
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:: Canada’s use of sanctions is little studied which means the full scope and effect of this tool are not appreciated. Until 2006, Canada applied sanctions in support of the United Nations almost exclusively. Since then, Canada has also applied discretionary sanctions in support of allies such as the European Union and United States’ measures in addition to those required by the UN Security Council. Lacking extraterritorial reach and with this new tendency to layer sanctions (applying UN and additional measures) requires the navigation of multiple pieces of Canadian legislation. Banks and private companies, which are largely responsible for giving effect to Canada’s sanctions, must navigate this legislation. This has ensnared a few Canadians in the process with little evidence that Canada’s application of sanctions is compelling its targets (people, companies, and states) to change their behaviour. Canada’s application of sanctions is a signal of its desire to support multilateral, collective security efforts – nothing more or less.
Topic:: United Nations, Sanctions, European Union, and Banks
Political Geography:: Europe, Canada, North America, and United States of America

4793. The Year of Our Discontent: A Snapshot From Berlin

Author:: Gary Soroka
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:: The European Union faces enormous challenges, including flows of refugees, economic stagnation, terrorism, xenophobia, anti-Muslim bigotry and the rise of the far right, the Brexit. Strong leadership is needed but it is in short supply. Germany is the most capable, but it too has domestic problems that are preoccupying the political class, not least the prospect of a federal election next year. Despite all this, the country has shouldered its growing responsibilities in recent years with a new confidence and no one should underestimate what they can achieve.
Topic:: Islam, Terrorism, Elections, European Union, Brexit, and Xenophobia
Political Geography:: Europe

4794. Rethinking Human Rights in EU External Policies

Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Open Society Foundations
Abstract:: The EU’s Global Strategy on Foreign and Security Policy is an opportunity for the EU to redefine its role on the global stage in a way that builds on the norms that underpin its own progress, shows leadership and ambition, and takes a decisive stand against regressive regimes that prefer compliant partners that prioritise interest over universal values. In this paper, the Open Society European Policy Institute calls on the EU and its member states to end the false dichotomy between “values and interests” and argues that universal human rights constitute a building block of any policy aimed at supporting sustainable security, prosperity, and stability in Europe and beyond. The input builds on the main conclusions and recommendations that emerged from the expert discussion on human rights in EU external action cohosted by the Open Society European Policy Institute and the European Union Institute for Strategic Studies in January 2016. The convening brought together over 30 human rights experts (including from Egypt, Kenya, and Azerbaijan), EU officials, parliamentarians, and diplomats.
Topic:: Security, Human Rights, Political stability, Europe Union, Prosperity, and Political Rights
Political Geography:: Europe

4795. Montenegro: Elections Aftermath and the European Commission’s 2016 Country Progress Reports

Author:: Srđan Cvijić and Stevo Muk
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Open Society Foundations
Abstract:: Politically, Montenegro finds itself in a paradoxical situation. At one level it is the champion of European integration in the Western Balkans when it comes to progress in the EU accession negotiations, but it is also the only country in the region that has not experienced a change of government since the introduction of the multiparty system in 1990. The same individuals, families, and political and business elites have been controlling the country’s politics and economy for more than 25 years. This situation is likely to continue after the recently held October 16 parliamentary elections where the ruling Democratic Party of Socialists managed once again to secure the most seats in parliament but fell short of securing an absolute majority. Key conclusions in this report include: the October elections were marked by numerous irregularities and were held in problematic conditions; the Montenegrin government and European Commission need to focus more on reforms in the area of the rule of law; the EU accession process remains unclear and lacks transparency. The authors present recommendations to the European Commission, European Parliament, and the EU member states for moving forward.
Topic:: Democratization, Government, Elections, European Union, Democracy, and Rule of Law
Political Geography:: Europe, Balkans, and Montenegro

4796. European Union Borders in the Face of Insecurities (2015-2016)

Author:: Mira Kaneva
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:: The associative definition of borders implies the separation or the connection between two contrasting units (even in terms of their coloring on the geographic map). Thus the inherent intermediate position of borders has always marked the bordering practices between and within political communities. In international relations studies, though, despite the centrality of borders in policy-making, border studies are reduced to a marginal position. Ironically, border studies are driven to the periphery of academic research due to the prevailing misconception of them as epiphenomena at the expense of core phenomena such as state, sovereignty, and territory
Topic:: International Organization, Immigration, and Political stability
Political Geography:: Europe

4797. Hebrew Sources in the Doctrine of the Law of Nature and Nations in Early Modern Europe

Author:: Charles Leben
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Abstract:: This article sets out to re-examine Hebrew sources in the doctrine of the law of nations of the 17th century, from Gentili’s De Jure Belli Libri Tres (although it strictly belongs to the 16th century since it was first published in 1598) to Pufendorf’s De Jure Naturae et Gentium (1672). It incontrovertibly confirms the importance of Jewish sources in the general intellectual education of the founding fathers of international law and in their general political philosophy while limiting their role with respect to the construction of international law in the strict and contemporaneous sense of the term.
Topic:: International Law, Religion, Political Theory, History, Law, and Judaism
Political Geography:: Europe and Mediterranean

4798. The problem with ‘embedded liberalism’: the World Bank and the myth of Bretton Woods

Author:: Samuel Appleton
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Global Political Economy, University of Sussex
Abstract:: The Bretton Woods conference is conventionally understood as a radical break between the laissez faire order and its ‘embedded liberal’ successor, in which finance was suppressed in the interest of trade and productive growth. The new institutions, particularly the IBRD are often considered emblematic of this. In response to this, the paper argues that the Bretton Woods order required the enlistment, not repression, of private American finance. Firstly, laissez-faire era proposals for international financial institutions provided important precedents for the Bretton Woods institutions. Second, these were predicated on the uniquely deep liquidity of American financial markets following upon Progressive-era reforms, in the legacy of which the Roosevelt administration sought to locate the New Deal. Thirdly, they found new relevance in the 1940s as the IBRD turned by necessity to American financial markets for operating capital. Negotiating the imperative of commercial creditworthiness had two important consequences. First, it entailed the structural and procedural transformation of the IBRD, and allowed management to carve out a proprietary terrain in which its agency was decisive. Second, this suggests that US agendas were mediated by the Bank’s institutional imperatives – and that finance was no more ‘embedded’ during the Bretton Woods era than its predecessor.
Topic:: Development, Economics, World Bank, Global Markets, International Development, and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, and Latin America

4799. Shifting Sands: Power, Uncertainty and the Form of International Legal Cooperation

Author:: Timothy Meyer
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Abstract:: This article argues that the form of international agreements – binding hard law agreements versus non-binding soft law agreements – can be partially explained by states’ interests in promoting renegotiation in the presence of uncertainty and shifting power. I make this argument in three steps. First, I explain that states regularly use unilateral non-compliance as a renegotiation strategy. Second, I argue that making an agreement soft facilitates this use of unilateral non-compliance. Third, I analyse the conditions – uncertainty characterized by common interests (but not uncertainty characterized by distributive concerns) and shifting power – under which facilitating renegotiation through soft law will appeal to states. In particular, I argue that in the presence of these conditions preventing renegotiation creates long-term costs for states that can inhibit short-term cooperation. In effect, under these conditions the shadow of the future can inhibit cooperation rather than support it, as is conventionally thought. These conditions are common to many major contemporary subjects of international cooperation in a way they were not during the latter half of the 20th century, partially explaining the increased importance of soft law to contemporary international governance.
Topic:: International Relations, International Law, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Europe, United Nations, and Global Focus

4800. Backlash against International Courts in West, East and Southern Africa: Causes and Consequences

Author:: Karen J. Alter, James T. Gathii, and Laurence R. Helfer
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Abstract:: This article discusses three credible attempts by African governments to restrict the jurisdiction of three similarly situated sub-regional courts in response to politically controversial rulings. In West Africa, when the Court of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) upheld allegations of torture by opposition journalists in Gambia, that country’s political leaders sought to restrict the Court’s power to review human rights complaints. The other member states ultimately defeated Gambia’s proposal. In East Africa, Kenya failed in its efforts to eliminate the East African Court of Justice (EACJ) and to remove some of its judges after a decision challenging an election to a sub-regional legislature. However, the member states agreed to restructure the EACJ in ways that have significantly affected the Court’s subsequent trajectory. In Southern Africa, after the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Tribunal ruled in favour of white farmers in disputes over land seizures, Zimbabwe prevailed upon SADC member states to suspend the Tribunal and strip its power to review complaints from private litigants. Variations in the mobilization efforts of community secretariats, civil society groups and sub-regional parliaments explain why efforts to eliminate the three courts or narrow their jurisdiction were defeated in ECOWAS, scaled back in the EACJ and largely succeeded in the SADC.
Topic:: Civil Society, Human Rights, International Law, and Courts
Political Geography:: Kenya, Africa, Europe, South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Gambia

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS