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611. German strengths and weaknesses in the Russo-Ukrainian war

Author:
Emmanuel Comte
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The Russian attack on Ukraine has activated a series of tropes about the international balance of power in Europe. Most mainstream opinion outlets have published criticisms of Germany for supposedly being dependent on Russia and threatening the European security system by hesitating when decisive action is required. The following points serve to reintroduce some facts into the conversation. The current war in Ukraine is primarily the result of German-Russian rivalry. The war is a case of an established power, Russia, miscalculating in its efforts to prevent a rising power, Germany, from absorbing a nation within its sphere of cooperation: Ukraine. Germany’s strategy has been subtle, seeking to manage through economic interdependence an international conflict predicated upon balance of power considerations. Since circa 1900, Turkey has also played a key role in the German security system in the Black Sea region. With the benefit of hindsight, Germany’s strategy has been the most appropriate to the situation, given that Russia has been completely isolated while Germany is surrounded by allies. Germany’s problems today are not in its Russian policy, but rather in self-defeating ideologies which include the “Green” movement and economic statism.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Economy, Regional Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Germany

612. Nationalism, enmity and reconciliation: Turkish party supporters’ polarized views on Greece

Author:
Evangelos Areteos
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Supporters of the current government in Turkey have significantly stronger nationalistic attitudes towards Greece and Greeks than the supporters of the opposition parties. Turkey is extremely polarized along party lines. Religion and education significantly shape perceptions in both Turkey and Greece. In Greece, the levels of nationalism towards Turkey are significantly higher than they are in Turkey towards Greece, but vary far less across the political spectrum.
Topic:
Nationalism, Public Opinion, Reconciliation, AKP, and Polarization
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Greece

613. The Digitalization of EU Public Diplomacy: the pandemic crisis and beyond

Author:
Christos A. Frangonikolopoulos and Eleftheria Spiliotakopoulou
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
This paper explores the digitalization of diplomacy and attempts to shed light on the adaptation level of the European Union by presenting the European External Action Service’s activity on social media and selected Public Diplomacy initiatives during the covid-19 pandemic. The main research questions posed in the study are: a) in what ways has the European Union used digital tools to respond to the coronavirus crisis; and b) what are the (recurring) challenges facing the European Union in its efforts to improve its image in a changing world and enhance its role as a leading global actor? The paper concludes that while the European Union is highly competent in terms of digitalization, it does face challenges, which are partly inherent in the sui generis nature of the European Union as an International Organization. These include the need for deeper integration, better coordination between member states, and further dialogue with the Union’s citizens, and must be met if the EU is to enhance trust and build solidarity, as well as a clearer and more solid European identity.
Topic:
Diplomacy, European Union, Regional Integration, COVID-19, Digitalization, and Adaptation
Political Geography:
Europe

614. The return of inflation: Can we protect real incomes?

Author:
Manos Matsaganis and Sotiria Theodoropoulou
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
High inflation, virtually unknown in advanced economies since the 1980s, has made a comeback. In this policy paper, we first explain where inflation comes from, and describe how the policy context for dealing with it was shaped after Keynesian demand management proved unable to defeat stagflation. We then critically examine the various policy options. Generally speaking, policy makers may attempt to (i) contain inflation by raising interest rates or, more directly, by controlling prices, (ii) alleviate the impact of inflation on household budgets through price subsidies or income transfers, and (iii) protect workers’ real incomes via wage indexation and social pacts. We conclude by assessing the merits, costs, and distributional implications of each option in turn.
Topic:
Economy, Inflation, and Income
Political Geography:
Europe and Global Focus

615. Fuel of the Future: A Blueprint for a Mediterranean Market for Emission-Free Hydrogen

Author:
Jorgo Chatzimarkakis
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The Mediterranean Green Hydrogen Partnership (MGHP) should be developed from the outset into a supranational governing structure for the intercontinental hydrogen market around the Mediterranean Basin. The supranational model will ensure optimal ownership for all members while delivering compelling and binding decisions on the production, certification, transportation and distribution of clean hydrogen. It will also serve as a stepping stone to the application of supranational decision-making to future global hydrogen governance on the basis of rules and regulations enacted by the world’s leading hydrogen producing region. Maximising the clean hydrogen potential of all the states encompassed by the MGHP will make the organisation the global leader in a transparent and democratic market for a key future global energy source.
Topic:
Partnerships, Carbon Emissions, Hydrogen, and Energy
Political Geography:
Europe and Mediterranean

616. Cooperation against the odds: Getting small firms to work together in unfavourable circumstances

Author:
Kira Gartzou-Katsouyanni
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
How can we get small firms to work together in order to achieve mutually beneficial outcomes, despite adverse circumstances? This policy paper provides an answer to this question that could be useful both to policymakers and to local stakeholders seeking to undertake innovative, cooperative economic activities in their area. Based on evidence from eight case studies within the Greek agri-food and tourism sectors, I argue that a small group of local actors, whom I call ‘institutional entrepreneurs’, usually play a key role in catalysing the emergence of cooperation at the local level. Their strategies and experiences carry valuable insights. I also outline the characteristics that macro-level institutional frameworks need to have if they are to facilitate local cooperation. These characteristics can inform the design of institutions at both the domestic and the EU level. The paper’s findings could be relevant to people interested in local development, but also to those concerned with boosting the productivity and export orientation of the Greek economy as a whole. After all, cooperation can improve the performance of small firms, and it is thus an important ingredient for inclusive growth in countries with a lot of small firms, such as Greece.
Topic:
Development, Economy, Business, and Production
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

617. The European Union’s uneasy journey through the energy crisis

Author:
Alekos Kritikos
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The European Union revealed rapid reflexes when it came to imposing sanctions on Russia and supporting Ukraine, but has been extremely slow when it comes to taking measures to relieve its own citizens and businesses. At three fruitless summits in the first two months of the crisis, numerous member states’ repeated requests for a joint fiscal response mirroring that adopted vis-à-vis the pandemic were not even informally tabled. In May, the Commission presented the REPowerEU programme, which aims to transition to clean energy and end the EU’s dependence on Russian fossil fuels. The two European Councils in May and June agreed on new sanctions against Russia, further assistance for Ukraine, and joint EU supplies of defence equipment. However, no decision was made to impose a cap on the price of natural gas and the issue of a joint fiscal response to the crisis was not even discussed. Despite repeated requests, the Commission continued to not submit proposals to this effect. But pressure was mounting for decisions to be made. Fifteen countries signed a joint letter in September 2022 calling for a cap on gas prices. In a joint article, Commissioners Thierry Breton and Paolo Gentiloni have also called for a joint fiscal response. The two Councils of Energy ministers in September 2022 resolved on a series of measures, but these are national responses rather than a joint European initiative. The price cap was absent once again from the decisions made. The informal Prague summit did not reach any conclusions either, though it did table all the outstanding issues in question. Europe’s successes in dealing with the pandemic came with “collateral damages”, institutional and otherwise, and the bloc has continued to sustain further collateral damages during the current energy crisis.
Topic:
European Union, Crisis Management, Fossil Fuels, Energy Crisis, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe

618. Using RRF resources to kick-start a job-rich recovery in Greece

Author:
Manos Matsaganis and Georgios Manalis
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) is a golden opportunity for those member states that were most badly hit first by the debt crisis then by the pandemic. Greece, one of the largest beneficiaries in per capita terms, is due to receive very significant resources that can help arrest the decline of the 2010s. Can these resources be spent wisely and efficiently enough to kickstart the process of inclusive and sustainable growth? This paper briefly reviews the Greek National Recovery and Resilience Plan (Greece 2.0), assessing its potential contribution to upgrading the economy’s growth model, enhancing skills, and boosting employment. In 2007-19, total investment in Greece shrank by a stunning 70% in real terms. Over the same period, public investment fell by 62%, business investment by 44%, and household investment (on housing, mostly) by 89%. Under-investment constrains growth and undermines the future prospects of the Greek economy. The Recovery and Resilience Facility offers Greece a unique opportunity to bridge the investment gap, giving a boost to the sustainable recovery of the Greek economy. Technically, Greece 2.0, the country’s National Recovery and Resilience Plan is competently drafted, as its favourable reception by the European Commission indicates. Still, critical issues abound. In this sense, Greece 2.0 embodies the contradictions of the current juncture. On the one hand, there is a consensus that the Greek economy should rebalance, by pursuing a growth strategy that relies much more on exports than in the recent past, and much less on domestic consumer demand fuelled by debt. On the other hand, the legacy of the past weighs heavily on social and political actors, limiting their room for manoeuvre. The list is daunting. It remains to be seen how the above will play out over the next few years.
Topic:
Debt, Economy, Crisis Management, Resilience, and Economic Recovery
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

619. Georgian-Greek Relations: Building a Strategic Dimension

Author:
Ioannis N. Grigoriadis and Mariam Gugulashvili
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The cordial bilateral relations between Greece and Georgia are mostly centered on the culture and education domains, with less progress achieved in the areas of the economy, foreign policy, and security. Greece can emerge as Georgia’s key supporter in its EU membership aspirations, with Greek experts and diplomatic circles contributing their experience to the country’s EU integration process. This support can be realized at both high and low levels, through EU Twinning projects and results-oriented memoranda between state institutions to import best practices, so Georgia can successfully carry out the required democratization reforms and implement the EU Association Agreement effectively. As the international system becomes more multipolar and the strategic significance of the Black Sea and Caucasus regions increases, Greece and Georgia should work to deepen their ties and build interest-oriented synergies in order to forge a strategic alliance. The promotion of Western and European interests can be significantly aided by a democratic Georgia on the road to European integration and a resurgent Greece with a stronger regional presence in the Black Sea and Caucasus.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Economy
Political Geography:
Europe, Greece, and Georgia

620. EU-Georgia Relations at a Critical Juncture: A Case for European Strategic Autonomy

Author:
Ioannis N. Grigoriadis and Mariam Gugulashvili
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Despite the substantial progress that Georgia has made in implementing the EU Association Agreement and related reforms, it has been experiencing democratic backsliding since 2018. The divergence of Georgia’s ruling party from a pro-European trajectory, as well as the political polarization that has been dominant in recent years, have contributed to the deterioration of ties between Georgia and the EU. Unlike Ukraine and Moldova, Georgia, which was once seen as a “reform pioneer,” was not given candidate status in June 2022. Georgian public opinion has always supported membership of Euro-Atlantic institutions, with more than 80% of Georgians today being Euro-enthusiasts and overwhelmingly in favour of joining the EU. The EU is Georgia’s largest donor and trading partner. Georgia’s key strategic option boils down to Russia vs. the West. Georgia should foster closer relations with certain EU member states that could provide key support for its EU membership aspirations.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, European Union, Trade, and Strategic Autonomy
Political Geography:
Europe and Georgia