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442. Speed of Convergence and Relocation: New EU Member Countries Catching up with the Old
- Author:
- Kari E. O. Alho, Ville Kaitili, and Mike Widgrén
- Publication Date:
- 04-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- Economic convergence of the EU's new member countries (NMCs) towards the incumbent EU countries (EU-15) is of paramount importance for both partners, not only in terms of real income but also in nominal terms. In this study we build a dynamic, computable general equilibrium model, starting from the Balassa-Samuelson two-sector framework, then modify and enlarge it (with, among other things, endogenous capital formation, consumption behaviour and labour mobility) to address several other issues such as uncertainty, welfare and sustainability in terms of foreign indebtedness. At the same time we make flows of foreign direct investment (FDI) endogenous in order to evaluate the impact convergence has on the EU-15 and the inter action between the two regions through FDI. We find that in a general equilibrium setting, fears of adverse effects resulting from a relocation of EU-15 manufacturing to the NMCs are not well founded.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, Economics, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- Europe
443. Financial Consequences of Widowhood in Europe: Cross-Country and Gender Differences
- Author:
- Namkee Ahn
- Publication Date:
- 03-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- We document in this paper the financial consequences of widowhood using both cross-section and panel data from the European Community Household Panel. The research reveals that there are large differences across countries. For example, widowed persons in Greece and Portugal have the lowest income – less than a half that of those widowed in Austria. Cross-country differences decrease somewhat if we consider household income net of housing costs, owing to the higher share of home ownership in low-income countries. Further, the income reduction upon widowhood is generally larger for widows than it is for widowers. The difference in income between the genders is largest in Denmark, Spain, Austria and Finland, where widower s enjoy an income that is more than 30% higher that of widows. The main culprit of the differences in income between widows and widowers lies in pension regulations. As today's elderly women an d those approaching old age spent their working years in an era where women worked at home, raised children and did not participate in the labour market, many depend mostly on survivorship pensions as their main source of income. Yet in most countries this kind of pension tends to be much lower than the applicable old-age pension, owing to the prevailing pension laws. Consequently, the financial situation of widows is unlikely to improve in the medium term unless pension regulations change.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Demographics, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Finland, Greece, Denmark, and Spain
444. Integration and Conditional Convergence in the Enlarged EU Area
- Author:
- Ville Kaitila
- Publication Date:
- 02-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- This working paper analyses conditional convergence in Europe and also tries to assess the impact that arises from integration. Using a pooled mean-group estimation method, we first analyse the conditional convergence of GDP per labour force in the area covering the 15 member states of the European Union (EU-15) in 1960-2002. Conditional convergence is well-documented for the EU- 15. Higher investment, lower public consumption and lower inflation have contributed positively to GDP growth. Deeper European integration is shown to have accelerated growth when inflation is not included in the specification, but not otherwise. The evidence on the effect of integration on growth is therefore mixed. We then apply the same method to estimate the growth of GDP per labour force in the new EU member states – the eight Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) – for the period 1993-2002. These countries are shown to have converged conditionally towards the average level of GDP per labour force in the EU-15. Higher investment and lower public consumption have also supported growth in the CEECs.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Development
- Political Geography:
- Europe
445. Scenarios for Modelling Trade Policy Effects on the Multifunctionality of European Agriculture
- Author:
- Jerzy Wilkin, Janet Dwyer, David Baldock, Hervé Guyomard, and Dorota Klepacka
- Publication Date:
- 01-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- The ENARPRI partners agreed in February 2004 to prepare a precise specification for the scenarios that partners would attempt to model in their own national contexts, to examine the impacts of trade-related changes upon the multifunctionality of EU agriculture. This paper outlines a suite of five scenarios covering anticipated domestic (EU) policy under different possible outcomes from the Doha round, broadly based upon the status quo (with mid-term review), full decoupling of domestic support and full decoupling plus reductions in (decoupled) domestic support, with variants in relation to export subsidies and the scale of pillar 2 measures. In all cases it is recognised that national or sub-national models will require an additional level of national or regional specification before they can be run, and that each national team will be required to do this drawing upon their own domestic knowledge and discussion with relevant experts. Each of the models that will be used to undertake these analyses is then briefly reviewed to identify its general approach and the multifunctionality indicators that can be covered. These indicators are then set in the broader context that considers other potential indicators of multifunctionality and their rationales. The paper concludes with some additional commentary about the significant differences, and thus the difficulties, of attempting to undertake this exercise for any of the new member states.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Agriculture
- Political Geography:
- Europe
446. What Prospects for the European Constitutional Treaty? - Monitoring the Ratification Debates
- Author:
- Sebastian Kurpas, Marco Incerti, and Justus Schönlau
- Publication Date:
- 01-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- Following the success of the EPIN survey on the European elections 2004 (EPIN Working Paper No. 11), the authors decided to use a similar approach for monitoring the current ratification process of the European Constitutional Treaty. Accordingly, the findings presented in this paper are based on the results of a survey conducted among national experts associated with the European Policy Institutes Network (EPIN). As such, they are inherently subjective, but nevertheless wellinformed. The report draws on survey data collected in 20 EU member states, supplemented by additional sources of information on the remaining countries where available. While the actual outcomes may prove our findings wrong in one respect or another, they do indicate interesting developments and differences in the respective member states. The added value of this EPIN survey lies in its broad comparative scope and analysis rather than its offering an in-depth assessment of each national debate. (For the latter, special country reports are envisaged at a later point in time.) The EPIN Ratification Monitor project plans to publish regular updates on the rapidly changing situation.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Europe
447. Plan B
- Author:
- Richard Baldwin
- Publication Date:
- 06-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- The resounding French 'non' will have important consequences for French domestic politics. It may also change the way EU leaders proceed with future Treaties. But I do not believe that it will be the 'political tsunami' for the EU that many observers have predicted. Two reasons buttress this belief.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Europe and France
448. The Europeanisation of the Transnistrian Conflict
- Author:
- Marius Vahl
- Publication Date:
- 05-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- To describe the Transnistrian conflict as 'frozen' is becoming less and less appropriate. Although the conflict remains unresolved, there have been a number of significant and at times dramatic developments in recent years, both in the diplomatic efforts to negotiate a settlement, and in the underlying geopolitical alignments and political and economic structures sustaining the conflict. It is argued here that these changes are primarily because of the European Union.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and International Relations
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Asia
449. EU-Russia - Four Common Spaces and the Proliferation of the Fuzzy
- Author:
- Michael Emerson
- Publication Date:
- 05-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- On the 10th of May the EU and Russia signed four 'roadmap' documents at summit level in Moscow, on the Common Economic Space, the Common Space of Freedom, Security and Justice, the Common Space of External Security and the Common Space on Research, Education and Culture. This was the culmination of two year's work since the May 2003 summit that decided in principle to create the four spaces as a long-term project. It was intended also to give new momentum to the relationship, after seeing that the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement of 1994 had not become a motor for anything very substantial, while the subsequent phase (in 1999) of swapping common strategy documents also led nowhere in particular.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Arms Control and Proliferation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Asia
450. Oxfam Publishing: Euro-Med: Ensuring a fair deal
- Author:
- Nishant Pandey and Yara Abdul-Hamid
- Publication Date:
- 11-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- When the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership (Euro-Med) was announced in Barcelona with a great fanfare in 1995, it was hoped that it would herald a new age in relations between the European Union (EU) and its ten southern Mediterranean partner countries, bringing unprecedented opportunities in the social, economic, and political fields.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Health, and Human Welfare
- Political Geography:
- Europe