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2281. Who Can Win the Possible China-US Trade War?

Author:
Li Chunding
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
This paper uses a multi-country global general equilibrium (GE) model to numerically simulate the effects of possible China-US trade wars. We introduce an endogenous trade imbalance structure with trade cost into the model which helps to explore both tariff and non-tariff trade war effects. Our simulation results show that China will be significantly hurt by the China-US trade war, but negative impacts are affordable. The US can gain under unilateral sanction measures to China, but will lose if China takes retaliation measures. Comparing the effects under mutual trade war, China will lose more than the US. Introducing non-tariff barrier trade wars will intensify the negative effects, and comparatively negative effects to China are larger than to the US. Mexico’s involvement in trade war with the US will strengthen the negative effects and comparatively hurt the US more. Under non-cooperative and cooperative Nash bargaining equilibrium, the US can gain more than China in trade war negotiation, which means the US has stronger bargaining power than China. Additionally, trade wars between China and the US will hurt most countries and the world especially in GDP and manufacturing employment, but benefit their welfare and trade.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Trade Wars, and Trade
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

2282. Digital Fiat Currency, SDR and New Cross-Border Payment System

Author:
Liu Dongmin and Song Shuang
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Abstract:
Emerging economies have played more and more important roles in the world, and have become a significant drive in the reform of global financial governance to push it towards the direction of inclusiveness and resilience. As a key part of the international financial architecture, the dollarized cross-border payment system has not been changed correspondingly. Along with the rapid development of digital currency, the digital fiat currency (DFC) endorsed by national credit shows great potential in improving the current cross-border payment system. We propose that the new system based on DFC can be done in three patterns and the third one is most feasible: IMF-leading pattern, countries-leading pattern and the coexisting pattern. The new system will effectively reduce the transmission time and cost of cross-border payment services due to DFC’s peer-to-peer mode. Moreover, as the new system becomes more open, more flexible and more inclusive, all the developing countries will get fair and easy access to these services.
Topic:
Finance, Currency, and Economic Development
Political Geography:
China, Global Focus, and Global Markets

2283. China should address downward pressure in 2018

Author:
Qiyuan Xu
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Abstract:
In 2017, the Chinese economy rebounded more significantly than expected. There is now general anticipation that growth in 2018 will fall slightly compared with that of 2017, but that it will remain stable at 6.5 percent or above. However, there are some factors that could lead to downward pressure on investment and consumption in 2018. First, investment growth has shown negative growth recently. Judging from the notional fixed-asset investment, the year-on-year growth in the first 11 months of 2017 was 7.2 percent, 1.1 percentage points lower than in the same period of 2016. Due to the significant increase in producer price index (PPI) growth in 2017, the drop in real investment growth in 2017 is quite worrying. The real investment growth rate in the first three quarters of 2017 dropped to 2.2 percent year-on-year, while in the same period of 2016, this figure was 9.5 percent year-on-year. On a quarterly basis, the real investment rate in the third quarter of 2017 fell by 1.1 percent year-on-year, the first time that negative growth has been recorded in more than a decade.
Topic:
Economy, Economic Growth, and Investment
Political Geography:
China and Asia

2284. Country-Risk Rating of Overseas Investment from China (2018)

Author:
CROIC-IWEP
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
China's outbound direct investment hit a new high in 2016, reaching $196.15 billion, making the country the world's second-largest overseas investor. The volume of its outbound direct investment increased by 34.7% year-on-year in 2016 and accounted for 13.5% of the world's total — the first time it exceeded 10%. Since 2003, when the Ministry of Commerce joined hands with the National Bureau of Statistics and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange to start releasing authoritative investment data annually, China's outbound direct investment has kept increasing for 14 consecutive years. From 2002 to 2016, the annual average growth of its outbound direct investment reached 35.8%. In 2016, China's outbound direct investment once again exceeded the foreign direct investment it received, making it a net capital exporter for two consecutive years. Meanwhile, its outbound direct investment stock hit $1.35739 trillion at the end of 2016, the 6th largest in the world, two notches up compared with in 2015. In 2016, China had the most overseas M&A deals in history in terms of both number and value of M&A deals. In the future, China is expected to bring out more of its investment potentials and build a win-win cooperative relationship with other countries following its economic transition and upgrading, rising competitiveness of Chinese enterprises in overseas markets and steady advancement of the Belt and Road Initiative.
Topic:
Economics, Foreign Direct Investment, and Investment
Political Geography:
China and Asia

2285. A United Nations with Chinese characteristics?

Author:
Maaike Okano-Heijmans, Frans-Paul van der Putten, and Louise Van Schaik
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
As China’s role as a major power in international affairs is growing, the Chinese government is becoming more active and more influential in the United Nations (UN). This is likely to have – or, in the eyes of some, already has – a significant impact on the UN’s (future) functioning. Growing Chinese influence is important for all UN members, and particularly so for Western countries, including the Netherlands, which strives to maintain and strengthen the international legal order as a principal foreign policy aim. This report by Maaike Okano-Heijmans and Frans-Paul van der Putten, with contributions from Etienne Béchard, Louise van Schaik and Vishwesh Sundar, aims to provide a better understanding of the process currently underway. It does so, first, by analysing how and in which direction China’s involvement in the UN is evolving. Next, the discussion turns to the question of how China’s growing involvement is relevant to the setting and the developing of norms and standards within the UN. Finally, the authors explore where European countries and China have common interests, and where their interests are conflicting through presenting three case studies in three thematic areas, namely human rights, development finance and climate change.
Topic:
Diplomacy, United Nations, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Netherlands

2286. Domestic Constraints on South Korean Foreign Policy

Author:
Scott A. Snyder, Geun Lee, You Young Kim, and Jiyoon Kim
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Despite becoming influential on the world scene, South Korea remains a relatively weak country surrounded by larger, more powerful neigh- bors. This contrast between its global rank as a top-twenty economy and its regional status as the weakest country in Northeast Asia (with the exception of North Korea) poses a paradox for South Korean for- eign policy strategists. Despite successes addressing nontraditional security challenges in areas such as international development, global health, and UN peacekeeping, South Korea is limited in its capacity to act on regional security threats. South Korea has historically been a victim of geopolitical rivalries among contenders for regional hegemony in East Asia. But the coun- try’s rise in influence provides a glimmer of hope that it can break from its historical role by using its expanded capabilities as leverage to shape its strategic environment. The pressing dilemma for South Korean strategic thinkers is how to do so. As the regional security environment becomes more tense, South Korea’s strategic options are characterized by constraint, given potentially conflicting great-power rivalries and Pyongyang’s efforts to pursue asymmetric nuclear or cyber capabilities at Seoul’s expense. South Korea’s relative weakness puts a premium on its ability to achieve the internal political unity necessary to maximize its influence in foreign policy. Students of Korean history will recall that domestic factionalism among political elites was a chronic factor that hamstrung Korea’s dynastic leadership and contributed to its weakness in dealing with outside forces.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Regional Cooperation, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
China, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

2287. Managing Global Disorder: Prospects for U.S.-China Cooperation

Author:
Council on Foreign Relations
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Emerging challenges to international order require cooperation between the United States and China, two countries that share a common interest in preventing the world from becoming more dangerous and disorderly. U.S.-China relations are becoming more strained and antagonistic, however, and the prospects for cooperation appear to be receding. To explore whether there are still grounds for cooperation on issues of common concern between the two countries, in March 2018 the Center for Preventive Action (CPA) at the Council on Foreign Relations convened a group of fifteen experts from the United States and China for the workshop “Managing Global Disorder: Prospects for U.S.-China Cooperation.” CPA partnered with Peking University’s School of International Studies in Beijing for the workshop and also met with experts at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations in Beijing and the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies in Shanghai. During the workshop, President Donald J. Trump announced plans to impose about $60 billion in new tariffs on Chinese imports. While trade was a major topic of discussion, it was by no means the only area discussed. Workshop participants assessed conflicting views of the sources of global disorder and examined areas of global governance such as international trade, development, the environment, and the future of various multilateral institutions. They also discussed the most pressing security challenges in East and Southwest Asia. Participants highlighted the need for a greater understanding between the United States and China on the evolving international order. No major transnational problems will be solved without some cooperation between the two powers. It is therefore imperative that the two countries avoid a further deterioration of the relationship and instead identify areas of potential cooperation.
Topic:
International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Tariffs, and Social Order
Political Geography:
United States, China, Asia, and North America

2288. The U.S.-Southeast Asia Relationship: Responding to China’s Rise

Author:
Council on Foreign Relations
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Although the Barack Obama administration rhetorically made Southeast Asia a centerpiece of its “rebalance to Asia” strategy, the administration still largely focused on the Middle East and Europe, and Southeast Asia remained a low U.S. policy priority. The Obama administration did try to boost U.S. economic ties with Southeast Asia in 2016 by forging the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), but that trade deal was broadly unpopular in the United States. The following year, the Donald J. Trump administration ended U.S. participation in the TPP, and it also suggested launching punitive economic measures against Southeast Asian states currently running trade surpluses with the United States. Many Southeast Asian leaders now worry that Washington has no clear security or economic strategy for the region, other than applying pressure on Beijing to respect freedom of navigation in the South China Sea. In this perceived void of U.S. leadership and strategy, workshop participants assessed how Southeast Asia might change as China becomes an increasingly dominant regional security and economic actor. They also discussed the future of U.S. strategic and economic relationships with important partners in the region, including Indonesia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. Participants further considered how China might use its growing leverage in Southeast Asia, and whether Beijing’s tactics could backfire. Finally, several workshop participants posited that the United States, China, and Southeast Asian states could cooperate on at least some nontraditional security issues, such as combating piracy and terrorism.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:
United States, China, Asia, and Southeast Asia

2289. "Growing Pains in the Chinese Social Security System"-The 8th Annual N.T. Wang Distinguished Lecture

Author:
Hanming Fang and Yi Zhang
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:
Video from the February 20, 2018 N.T. Wang Distinguished Lecture "Growing Pains in the Chinese Social Security System," presented by Hanming Fang, Class of 1965 Term Professor of Economics at the University of Pennsylvania. Moderated by Shang-Jin Wei, the N.T. Wang Professor of Chinese Business and Economy at Columbia Business School. Introduced by Xiaobo Lu, Professor of Political Science, Barnard College. Co-sponsored by the Weatherhead East Asian Institute of Columbia University and the Jerome A. Chazen Institute for Global Business at Columbia Business School.
Topic:
Governance, Domestic Politics, and Social Security
Political Geography:
China and Asia

2290. The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in the Context of the Chinese Grand Strategy

Author:
Tommaso Rossotti
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
Being the most populous country and the second biggest economy in the world, the People’s Republic of China is under every aspect one of the most important players in today’s international system. As every great power, China acts rationally in its foreign relations, and, doing so, it follows what has been labelled as a “Grand Strategy”. The aim of this paper is to analyse Chinese Grand Strategy in a practical perspective; in particular, it will be discussed how the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) fits in Beijing foreign policy and in its Grand Strategy. The paper moves from a working definition of Grand Strategy, to suddenly analyse how and if the different aims and goals of the SCO are aligned with China’s interests and long-term objectives.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Hegemony, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
China and Asia

2291. Transforming the Rice Value Chain: A Whole-of-Society Approach?

Author:
Jose Montesclaros and Paul Teng
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
The International Rice Congress (IRC) 2018 held in Singapore, 15-17 October 2018, provided new insights and refreshing ideas on how the rice value chain has been transforming. It also underscored the need for a Whole-of-Society approach to secure enough rice for all in 2050.
Topic:
Agriculture, Food Security, and Value Chains
Political Geography:
China, India, Philippines, and Singapore

2292. Social Media Celebrities and Neoliberal Body Politics in China

Author:
Anett Dippner
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Kolleg-Forschergruppe (KFG)
Abstract:
Since 2015, a new category of media stars came to public awareness and sparked a controversial discussion in China: Internet Celebrities (Wanghong). “Wanghongs” build their fame and fandom mostly on their eyecatching and hyperfeminine appearance which they are presenting extensively on Social Media platforms to gain public attention and acquire followers and fans. The stereotypical so-called “Internet Celebrity face” (Wanghong lian) became the most discussed buzz word of the year 2016 and led to a society-wide discussion about new beauty ideals and the growing popularity of cosmetic surgery, the objectification and commercialization of the body, as well as the increasing importance of an appropriate appearance for the individual’s social and economic success since the 2000s. For tracing these questions, the article analyses the development and characteristics of this new group of celebrities and locates them in the booming “Beauty Economy”. By literally selling their beautiful face, Wanghongs convert symbolic capital through e-commerce and online advertising into real economic advantages. The utilitarization of “body capital” heats up the public discourse about yanzhi (value of a pretty face) in China’s status-conscious society. With an analysis of the so called “Internet Celebrities” phenomenon this paper looks behind the sparkling Social Media façade and reveals the social and economic conditions that led to this new ideology of beauty as capital in China.
Topic:
Mass Media, Internet, Social Media, and Neoliberalism
Political Geography:
China and Asia

2293. The Chinese People’s Republic Investment Engagement in Belarus and Ukraine after 2010

Author:
Patrycja Rutkowska and Adam Adamczyk
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
The purpose of this article is to present and compare China’s economic, political and military involvement in Ukraine and Belarus, with particular emphasis on their role in the global expansion of the PRC. China after the opening of the economy to the world in the early 1980s, immediately became one of the most important elements of the global economy. The article will attempt an analysis of Chinese investments on the Dnieper, but also the political and military aspects of this cooperation.
Topic:
Politics, Economy, Investment, and Army
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Eurasia, Ukraine, Asia, and Belarus

2294. Toward gender equity and women’s empowerment

Author:
Jean-Philippe Platteau
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
There are three main channels of women’s empowerment: legal or policy reforms, outside economic opportunities, and collective action. Legal (or policy) reforms are generally based on statutory laws that enact rules to be followed or prohibit certain practices. External economic opportunities for women represent alternative activities and places of working and living. Collective action brings women together to advance their collective interests.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Women, Discrimination, Equality, and Empowerment
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Africa, China, Europe, Turkey, India, Asia, and Senegal

2295. Inequality dynamics in China: Income growth for the poor, but more for the rich

Author:
Shi Li and Terry Sicular
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
In the late 1970s, China embarked on a major programme of economic transition and reform. Since then, China’s economy has been transformed from a socialist planned economy to a predominately market economy characterized by a combination of state, private, and mixed forms of ownership. Over the past forty years, household incomes have risen six-fold, poverty has declined dramatically, and in recent years a new class of ultra-rich has emerged. These developments have naturally led to questions about inequality trends in China.
Topic:
Economics, Poverty, Reform, Income Inequality, and Welfare
Political Geography:
China and Asia

2296. The Challenge of the South China Sea: Congressional Engagement and the U.S. Policy Response

Author:
James M. Scott
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
Maritime territorial disputes in Asia are increasingly contentious, with competing claims and confrontations among numerous states of the region carrying significant implications for the relations among the countries of the region, between the U.S. and the region, and for the broader US-China relationship. This analysis examines the politics of the U.S. approach to the challenge, focusing on the role of Congress as a factor shaping the U.S. response. After establishing an analytical framework that directs attention to legislative-executive interactions and the domestic political/institutional context, it assesses the consequences of this context for U.S. policies and approaches to the problem. The analysis reveals the sequence and dynamics of congressional engagement, by which members moved from indirect and non-legislative approaches to direct and legislative approaches to narrow the boundaries and the shape the direction of US foreign policy. It concludes by addressing the implications for the U.S. approach and the relationships among the key parties.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Government, and Maritime
Political Geography:
China, Asia, United States of America, and South China Sea

2297. Chinese Concepts and Relational International Politics FacebookLinkedInTwitterMendeleyEmail

Author:
Emilian Kavalski
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
The rise of China troubles the taken-for-granted epistemological and ontological constitution of International Relations (IR) theory. The Greek term ‘theoria’ implied travelling to foreign locales with the aim of gaining illumination that can then simultaneously inform and transform the ‘home’ of the traveler. Yet, instead of travelling, IR theory engages in silencing. This paper undertakes an interpretative journey of China’s IR concepts. In particular, it looks at the notion of guanxi – one of the two terms that goes into the Chinese phrase for International Relations (guoji guanxi). The contention is that ‘relationality’ renders a more accurate translation of guanxi in English. In the process, the paper uncovers the practices of ‘international relationality’ as an opportunity to redefine the ‘international’ as a co-dependent space where two or more actors (despite their divergences) can interface into a dialogical community.
Topic:
International Relations, Politics, and Academia
Political Geography:
China and Asia

2298. Russia-India relations: Long-term obstacles remain despite sectoral achievements

Author:
Marcin Kaczmarski
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Despite concrete achievements in energy and military-technical cooperation, long-term trends, such as Russia’s growing dependence on China, India’s tilt towards the US, and tense Sino-Indian relations are not conducive to closer strategic cooperation between Moscow and New Delhi.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Energy Policy, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, India, and Asia

2299. Europe’s connectivity strategy and the challenge of China: Rivalry, reciprocity, or both?

Author:
Bart Gaens
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The EU’s new strategy for connecting Europe and Asia, implicitly a response to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, is an important first step in promoting European priorities in terms of connectivity. However, uncertainties, including those surrounding the financial implications, remain.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, and European Union
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Asia

2300. The Sino-Russian and US-Russian relationships: Current developments and future trends

Author:
Marcin Kaczmarski, Mark Katz, and Teija Tiilikainen
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The great-power system has been in constant change since the end of the Cold War. The US became the hegemonic power, and under its shelter, the European Union was able to transform into a European-wide political body. Soon, a group of leading regional powers started to question the universalist aspirations of the Western-led international order. Two members of this club in particular were not satisfied with the role of a regional hegemon and had more global ambitions. China has already become the largest trading nation globally, and Chinese foreign policy has assumed an assertive tone. China has both the potential to challenge US hegemony, as well as the political will to use it. Russia’s project to achieve a global great-power status, on the other hand, is inspired by its historical identity and its alleged humiliation by the West after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Russia longs for recognition of its great-power status in particular from the US. This report focuses on relations between China and Russia on the one hand and the US and Russia on the other. It analyses the current developments and future trends in these relationships, as well as their implications for the EU.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, and Hegemony
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, Europe, Asia, and North America