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Begin New Search Topic International Trade and Finance Political Geography China

201. Power Shift and Renminbi Internationalization: Recommendations for the G20

Author:
Raluca Diana Ardelean and Mengun Zhang
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
China has gained substantial economic power in recent years, becoming the second-largest trading nation after the United States and the largest goods-trading nation since 2012 (Eichengreen 2014). It is also currently the largest source of savings and the largest potential source of capital for international investment (ibid.). Measured by GDP, China is now the second-largest economy in the world (see Figure 1), and the World Bank surmises it is likely to surpass the United States in 2014 (World Bank 2014). Because of China's growing economic importance, a shift in power is reasonably assumed. As its economic power grows, internationalization of the RMB has become a key policy goal for China, especially after the 2008 financial crisis (Zhang 2009; Park 2010; China Securities Regulatory Commission [CSRC] 2014). This goal demonstrates China's desire for better integration and representation in the international economic community and signals its willingness to perform internal financial reforms and take more responsibility in global economic affairs.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

202. The China-EU BIT: The emerging "Global BIT 2.0"?

Author:
Wenhua Shan and Lu Wang
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Since China and the European Union (EU) announced their decision to negotiate a bilateral investment treaty (BIT) at the 14th China-EU Summit in February 2012, the two sides have engaged in two rounds of negotiations. If successful, it will be the first standalone EU BIT, a BIT between the world's largest developed economy and the world's largest developing economy, and will occupy a unique place in the history of BIT negotiations.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Asia

203. Morocco's Emergence as a Gateway to Business in Africa

Author:
J. Peter Pham and Ricardo Rene Laremont
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Africa is home to seven of the world's ten fastest-growing economies. By 2050, the continent's population is expected to overtake India's and China's, doubling to two billion people. Moreover, those two billion Africans will be younger than their counterparts in every other region of the world and will account for one in four workers globally by mid-century. Africa's rich endowment of natural resources, including about 30 percent of the world's known reserves of minerals and 60 percent of the planet's uncultivated arable land, is already well-known to investors.
Topic:
Security, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Africa, China, and Morocco

204. Avoiding the Blind Alley China’s Economic Overhaul and Its Global Implications

Author:
Daniel H. Rosen
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
DURING THE PAST THREE DECADES, perhaps no country has turned in an economic performance as impressive and transformative as China’s. China has emerged as the world’s second largest economy and its greatest exporting nation, accumulating huge trade surpluses, vast foreign currency reserves, and enormous influence on the global economy. Despite all the attention that policymakers, business executives, and scholars have paid to China’s economic rise, much debate surrounds China’s future growth prospects. For their part, President Xi Jinping and the new generation of Chinese leaders responded to the risk of a major economic slowdown by announcing a far-reaching reform campaign at the Chinese Communist Party’s Third Plenum in November 2013. If Beijing shifts direction along the lines it has announced, the behavior of Chinese companies, government agencies, and individual members of society is likely to change in remarkable ways – and thereby create opportunities for the rest of the world. Should the reform program stall, the effects will be just as profound. Either way, China’s new policy design, and its success or failure in achieving it, will have a major influence on the international economy and stability and security in Asia and beyond. With so much at stake, and an outcome that is far from certain, there is an evident need for greater clarity about what the reform program consists of, how it is progressing, and what it means for policy and business.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
China

205. Orville Schell: 'A Dream for a Strong and Respected China'

Author:
Orville Schell and John Delury
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
New York, July 16, 2013 - China scholars Orville Schell and John Delury discuss how the "Chinese Dream" has evolved to encompass facets of the American Dream while still retaining a traditional, communal character as regards acquiring wealth. (1 min., 45 sec.)
Topic:
Communism, Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China, New York, East Asia, and Asia

206. The futile debate over a multilateral framework for investment

Author:
Axel Berger
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
One of the recurrent debates on international investment rule-making relates to the question whether it is possible to establish a multilateral framework for investment (MFI). Proponents argue that growing foreign direct investment (FDI) from emerging countries, especially China, contributes to a new consensus on global investment rules.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
China

207. The Global Arctic: The Growing Arctic Interests of Russia, China, the United States and the European Union

Author:
Juha Käpylä and Harri Mikkola
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
With exciting economic opportunities and serious environmental challenges, the Arctic is transforming and re-emerging as a geopolitically important region. Major global players within and without the Arctic are paying greater attention to the region. While Russia is a traditional Arctic state with significant economic and security interests in the region, China, the US and the EU have also expressed their Arctic interests more explicitly. They are keen to tap into the economic potential and have a say in the way the region becomes accessed, exploited and governed. As a result, the Arctic is no longer a spatially or administratively confined region, but is instead taking its new form in the midst of contemporary global politics. The globalization and economization of the Arctic will most likely downplay environmentalism and reduce the relative influence of the indigenous people and small Arctic states in Arctic affairs. Arctic governance is also likely to turn more complex and complicated as the economic and political stakes are raised.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Development, International Trade and Finance, Oil, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, and Europe

208. The Hyperglobalization of Trade and Its Future

Author:
Arvind Subramanian and Martin Kessler
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper describes seven salient features of trade integration in the 21st century: Trade integration has been more rapid than ever (hyperglobalization); it is dematerialized, with the growing importance of services trade; it is democratic, because openness has been embraced widely; it is criss-crossing because similar goods and investment flows now go from South to North as well as the reverse; it has witnessed the emergence of a mega-trader (China), the first since Imperial Britain; it has involved the proliferation of regional and preferential trade agreements and is on the cusp of mega-regionalism as the world's largest traders pursue such agreements with each other; and it is impeded by the continued existence of high barriers to trade in services. Going forward, the trading system will have to tackle three fundamental challenges: In developed countries, the domestic support for globalization needs to be sustained in the face of economic weakness and the reduced ability to maintain social insurance mechanisms. Second, China has become the world's largest trader and a major beneficiary of the current rules of the game. It will be called upon to shoulder more of the responsibilities of maintaining an open system. The third challenge will be to prevent the rise of mega-regionalism from leading to discrimination and becoming a source of trade conflicts. We suggest a way forward—including new areas of cooperation such as taxes—to maintain the open multilateral trading system and ensure that it benefits all countries.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
China

209. Productive Power and Policy Change in Global Finance: An Analysis of China's Financial Policy Framing in the Bretton Woods Institutions

Author:
Sandra Heep
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Against the backdrop of China's increasingly influential role in global finance and the debate on the emergence of a “Beijing Consensus,” this paper examines whether the ideology that China promotes in the Bretton Woods institutions is conducive to the initiation of financial policy change at the international level. Drawing on Barnett and Duvall's (2005) conceptualization of productive power, Snow and Benford's (1988) framing theory and Freeden's (1996) understanding of ideology, the paper develops a theoretical framework for the analysis of international policy framing. Following an overview of China's rise in global finance, it identifies the core elements of the ideology that has been promoted by Chinese government officials in the Bretton Woods institutions since the onset of the global financial crisis. The paper argues that China's ruling elites will only be able to initiate a shift in the global consensus on acceptable financial policies if the frames that they propagate succeed in striking a balance between ideological continuity and change.
Topic:
Communism, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
China and Israel

210. China's Credit Boom: New Risks Require New Reforms

Author:
Nicholas Borst
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The Chinese financial system has undergone almost continuous reform since the dismantling in the 1980s of the Soviet- style system where only one state-controlled bank existed. Government efforts to create a financial system that adheres to international best practices of commercial lending accelerated in the 1990s (box 1). Reforms progressed quickly during this period, but they were accompanied by excessive credit growth and a massive increase in nonperforming loans, threatening the solvency of some banks and the financial stability of the entire economy. The risk of these weaknesses was dramatized by the 1997 Asian financial crisis, in which several nearby countries were crippled by plunging currency values, rising interest rates and difficulties servicing their foreign-held debts.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
China

211. China\'s Exports of Small Arms and Light Weapons

Author:
Mark Bromley, Paul Holtom, and Mathieu Duchâtel
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
China has long been one of the world\'s most significant exporters of small arms and light weapons (SALW). It is also among the least transparent. At the same time, China has stated its commitment to preventing the illicit trade in SALW and formally recognizes the destabilizing effect that SALW transfers can have on peace and security, economic development and social stability.
Topic:
Crime, International Law, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China

212. Obama's Asia Pivot and the Koreas

Author:
Richard Weitz
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
The end of President Barack Obama's first term provides an opportunity to assess what the administration's "strategic rebalancing" toward and within the Asia-Pacific region (sometimes called the "Asian Pivot" or "Back to Asia" policy) has accomplished as well as what challenges and unmet opportunities remain. The administration has launched several successful multinational diplomatic initiatives in the region to supplement U.S. bilateral ties with key Asian partners; relations with ASEAN have clearly improved. The economic dimension of the Pivot has made progress as seen by the growth of support for the Trans-Pacific Partnership. U.S. efforts to promote democracy and human rights in Asia have proved far less successful, except perhaps for Myanmar, where the political transition remains a work in progress. The U.S. military has managed to establish a broader presence in the region, especially in Australia and Southeast Asia. U.S. officials have sought to impart new energy into the five existing formal U.S. bilateral defense alliances in Asia--with Australia, Japan, the Philippines, Thailand, and South Korea. But the main problem with the pivot has been the inability to overcome Chinese anxiety about U.S. rebalancing, which has complicated their cooperation over North Korea and other issues. Fortunately, relations between the United States and South Korea are also strong. The ROK is becoming an important U.S. partner in several dimensions of the Pivot, though ROK-U.S. differences over North Korea might emerge with the advent of a new government in Seoul.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Asia, Australia, and Thailand

213. How much did China's WTO accession increase economic growth in resource-rich countries?

Author:
Mikkel Barslund, Thomas Barnebeck Andersen, Casper Worm Hansen, Thomas Harr, and Peter Sandholt Jensen
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This Working Document provides an estimate of China's impact on the growth rate of resource-rich countries since its WTO accession in December 2001. The authors' empirical approach follows the logic of the differences-in-differences estimator. In addition to temporal variation arising from the WTO accession, which they argue was exogenous to other countries' growth trajectories, the authors exploit spatial variation arising from differences in natural resource wealth. In this way they can compare changes in economic growth in the pre- and post-accession periods between countries that benefited from the surge in demand for industrial commodities brought about by China's WTO accession and countries that were less able to do so. They find that that roughly one-tenth of the average annual post-accession growth in resource-rich countries was due to China's increased appetite for commodities. The authors use this finding to inform the debate about what will happen to economic growth in resource-rich countries as China rebalances and its demand for commodities weakens.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China

214. The EU-China partnership: 10 years on

Author:
Nicola Casarini
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
The establishment of the EU-China 'strategic partnership' on 30 October 2003 came at a time of converging priorities between the two actors. It also coincided with one of the worst crises in transatlantic relations, mainly due to disagreements over the US-led war in Iraq and the foreign policy stance of the first Bush ad¬ministration. As a result of the partnership, the then EU-15 and China adopted three initiatives which caught the attention of US policymakers.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Biosecurity
Political Geography:
China, Iraq, and Europe

215. Engaging Indonesia

Author:
David Camroux
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
The presence of Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono at the G20 Summit in St Petersburg in early September went virtually unnoticed by the European media. That his attendance was overlooked can be explained by immediate factors, namely the overriding importance of the Syrian conflict in the discussions among leaders, and the fact that SBY (as President Yudhoyono is commonly known) is a lame-duck president with less than a year to go before the end of his two-term limit. Lacking BRIC status (for now at least), Indonesia – unlike China, India or even Brazil – barely registers on the radar screen of public awareness in Europe. Symptomatic of this neglect is the fact that, almost four years after its signing in November 2009, two EU member state parliaments (and the European Parliament itself) have yet to ratify the EU-Indonesia Partnership and Cooperation Agreement.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
China, Europe, India, Brazil, Syria, and Southeast Asia

216. Crucial Collaborators or Petty Players? The Globalization of R and the Rise of China and India

Author:
Andrew B. Kennedy
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Center for the Advanced Study of India
Abstract:
In recent decades, research and development has become a key new arena of globalization. Whereas multinational corporations once conducted R primarily in their home countries, it is now often dispersed across multiple locations around the world. Has this process transformed economic ties between the world's dominant state and its would-be rising powers in ways that imply an important power shift? Focusing on China and India's growing collaboration with the U.S., this paper argues that it has not. China and India remain considerably more reliant on the globalization of R than the U.S. does, and this remains a potential source of leverage for Washington. This vulnerability mainly reflects the fact that U.S. R investments in China and India are far more important for these two Asian countries than they are for the U.S. These investments loom larger in the Chinese and Indian innovation systems than they do in their American counterpart, and it is difficult to imagine any country substituting for the U.S. in this regard. In contrast, the U.S. cannot derive a great deal of leverage as a platform for R Both China and India are considerably less dependent on the U.S. in this respect.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States, China, and India

217. Trade and the G20

Author:
John Ravenhill, Mark P Thirlwell, Mike Callaghan, Peter W. Gallagher, and Brett Williams
Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
This issue of the G20 Monitor is devoted to the topic of international trade and the role of the G20. Over the coming months, the Monitor will be covering in detail a number of issues that are, or could be, on the G20 agenda. For example, over the next few months there will be an issue on 'Financial regulation and the G20' and another on 'Development and the G20'. The question we are asking on each issue is 'where can the G20 add value?'
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Europe

218. Impact of China‐Africa Investment Relations: The Case of Ethiopia

Author:
Alemayehu Geda and Atenafu G. Meskel
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
Abstract:
This study investigated the growing relation between Ethiopia and China in the last decade. It is possible for Chinese-Africa relations to be either complementary or competitive (or indeed both) and it has multifaceted features. Notwithstanding this multifaceted linkage, the study focused on one of the channels – the investment (FDI) channel. Other channels are explored depending on the degree at which they shed light on understanding the Chinese-Ethiopian investment relations, which is the subject of this study.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Asia, and Ethiopia

219. The Impact of China‐Africa Investment Relations: The Case of Madagascar

Author:
Jean Razafindravonona, Eric Rakotomanana, and Jimmy Rajaobelina
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
Abstract:
The rapid and spectacular expansion of the Chinese economy in the recent past is, for African countries, an opportunity to take advantage of not only in terms of strengthening the South-South cooperation, but also of developing African economies. It is thus important to define the channels through which African countries would do so. It is with this goal in mind that the African Economic Research Consortium (AERC) initiated the research project on the impact of the economic relation between China and sub-Saharan African countries.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, Global Political Economy, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Asia, and Madagascar

220. The Impact of China‐Africa Trade Relations: The Case of the Republic of Congo

Author:
Jean‐Christophe Boungou Bazika
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
Abstract:
The relations between China and Congo are already old since they began in 1963. However since the beginning of the 2000s, the economic relations between the two countries are characterized by an unprecedented dynamism. Congo’s exports and imports with China recorded a leap of 179.38% and 309.21% respectively for the period 2001-2005. Such a trend pushed analysts to predict that the relations between Africa and China should have a significant impact and lead to upheavals in the structure of African economies. Two tendencies emerged in the literature: the first predicts that these relations would have a negative impact, in the sense that they would provoke a competition that African producers would not be able to bear. The second predicts that these relations would enable African countries to consolidate their growth, thanks to the diversification of trade and the installation of infrastructures which were lacking - such as roads, bridges, hydro-electric dams, drinking water purification plants, etc.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, Global Political Economy, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Asia, and Republic of Congo

221. China's New Silk Road Diplomacy

Author:
Justyna Szczudlik- Tatar
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The destinations of China's new leaders' foreign trips show that the PRC's foreign policy domain remains its neighbourhood. China is trying in particular to enhance cooperation with its Central and Southeast Asia border states in what is called "new silk road" diplomacy. Behind this approach are mostly domestic rationales: a need to preserve stability on its borders and in the western part of China, secure export markets and energy supplies, develop inland transport routes as an alternative to unstable sea lines, and to narrow the development gap between the eastern and western parts of China. The PRC's "opening to the West" and reinvigoration of its Western Development Policy is a window of opportunity for Poland. The establishment in Gansu province of the Lanzhou New Area-the first state-level development zone in northwest China-could become a bridgehead for a Polish economic presence in this part of China, or even a springboard for Poland's "Go West China" strategy.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Southeast Asia

222. Stabilizing Properties of Flexible Exchange Rates: Evidence from the Global Financial Crisis

Author:
Joseph E. Gagnon
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
There is a long-standing debate among economists and policymakers on the benefits of flexible versus fixed exchange rates (Klein and Shambaugh 2010). In principle, flexible exchange rates allow a country's central bank to focus on stabilizing economic growth and inflation, which are the ultimate goals of monetary policy. However, some argue that in practice central banks often do not use their powers wisely and it may be better to restrict their freedom by requiring them to peg their currency to that of an important trading partner. Others note that flexible exchange rates are far more volatile than fundamental factors can explain (Flood and Rose 1995), raising the possibility that they may introduce wasteful cross-sectoral fluctuations in economic activity. One common viewpoint is that flexible exchange rates may be fine for large countries but that the smallest countries are better off with fixed exchange rates (Åslund 2010).
Topic:
Economics, Foreign Exchange, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, and United Kingdom

223. Go out and manufacture: Policy support for Chinese FDI in Africa

Author:
Nikia Clarke
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Energy investments and infrastructure contracts remain prominent in China's Africa engagement. However, investment in manufacturing makes up a significant proportion of Chinese outward foreign direct investment (FDI). Its characteristics–large numbers of smaller transactions by privately owned small and medium-sized firms–make these flows difficult to assess or control. However, China and African governments have an interest in effectively channeling this type of FDI.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Africa and China

224. Why Growth in Emerging Economies Is Likely to Fall

Author:
Anders Åslund
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Emerging-market growth from 2000 to 2012 was untypically high. This paper highlights the many reasons why emerging-economy growth is likely to be lower going forward. Much of the catch-up potential has already been used up. The extraordinary credit and commodity booms are over, and many large emerging economies are financially fragile. They have major governance problems, so they need to carry out major structural reforms to be able to proceed with a decent growth rate, but many policymakers are still in a state of hubris and not very inclined to opt for reforms. They are caught up in state and crony capitalism. Rather than providing free markets for all, the West might limit its endeavors to its own benefit. Economic convergence has hardly come to an end, but it has probably reached a hiatus that is likely to last many years. The emerging economies need to improve their quality of governance and other economic policies substantially to truly catch up. For a decade or so, the West could take the global economic lead once again as in the 1980s.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and Governance
Political Geography:
Russia, China, India, South Africa, and Brazil

225. Taking off as a Global Power? China's Foreign Policy "Grand Strategy"

Author:
Sven Bernhard Gareis
Publication Date:
04-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
Abstract:
The People's Republic of China has long been a very visible actor in international politics. With 1.4 billion inhabitants, it is the most populous country in the world, with a land mass of 9.6 million square kilometers bordering 14 states in East, South, and Central Asia. China has a long Pacific coastline, along which it claims vast areas of the South China Sea. A nuclear power since 1964, the People's Republic of China has the largest armed forces in the world, numbering approximately 2.3 million soldiers. China has been a permanent member of the UN Security Council since 1971; for many years, it has figured prominently in all decision making processes with global impact.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Central Asia

226. China's impact on conflict and fragility in South Asia

Author:
Clare Castillejo
Publication Date:
01-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
China is expanding its engagement across South Asia, with significant implications for the region's most fragile states. Western donors and peacebuilding actors are aware of this changing context and concerned about their resulting loss of influence. Yet they have so far failed to develop a coordinated response or to engage effectively with China regarding its impact on fragility within the region.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Emerging Markets, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
China, South Asia, Israel, and Asia

227. The global economy: Healing or still hurting?

Author:
Leo Abruzzese
Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
After a series of setbacks, the global economy is slowly mending US economy is strengthening; star performer Jobs market is on a modest upswing Housing is bouncing back China is recovering from a slowdown Boom years are over, but so is the slump European debt crisis is stabilizing but austerity is killing the economy Euro zone remains big drag on global growth Japan is showing signs of recovery under a new government Central banks are supporting the bounce - back in a big way Don't expect a brisk recovery, though; many risks remains Debt levels still high; asset prices are volatile; tensions in Middle East, China, Kore and has stabilised in Europe, but at a low level. In Germany, manufacturing output is rising again.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
United States and China

228. Challenges for the Future of Chinese Economic Growth

Author:
Jane T. Haltmaier
Publication Date:
01-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The Chinese economy has been growing at a rapid pace for over thirty years. Most of this growth has come from higher labor productivity, while growth of employment has diminished along with a slower rate of increase in the working-age population. This paper looks at the challenges that China will face over the next two decades in maintaining its rapid pace of economic growth, especially as working-age population growth slows further and then begins to decline. Key questions include whether China will be able to continue to devote nearly half of its GDP to investment, whether such investment will become less productive as the capital-labor ratio continues to rise, whether labor participation and employment rates will fall as the population becomes less rural, and whether future shifts out of rural employment will go more toward the services rather than the manufacturing sector, where productivity is higher. In the baseline scenario economic growth falls gradually from its current pace of about 10 percent to near 6-1/2 percent by 2030. However, a combination of less optimistic, but still reasonable assumptions, results in a reduction in the growth rate to about 1-1/2 percent by 2030.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, GDP, Employment, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:
China and Asia

229. Security and Profit in China's Energy Policy: Hedging Against Risk

Author:
Øystein Tunsjø
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
Columbia University Press
Abstract:
China has developed sophisticated hedging strategies to insure against risks in the international petroleum market. It has managed a growing net oil import gap and supply disruptions by maintaining a favorable energy mix, pursuing overseas equity oil production, building a state-owned tanker fleet and strategic petroleum reserve, establishing cross-border pipelines, and diversifying its energy resources and routes. Though it cannot be "secured," China's energy security can be "insured" by marrying government concern with commercial initiatives. This book comprehensively analyzes China's domestic, global, maritime, and continental petroleum strategies and policies, establishing a new theoretical framework that captures the interrelationship between security and profit. Arguing that hedging is central to China's energy-security policy, this volume links government concerns about security of supply to energy companies' search for profits, and by drawing important distinctions between threats and risks, peacetime and wartime contingencies, and pipeline and seaborne energy-supply routes, the study shifts scholarly focus away from securing and toward insuring an adequate oil supply and from controlling toward managing any disruptions to the sea lines of communication. The book is the most detailed and accurate look to date at how China has hedged its energy bets and how its behavior fits a hedging pattern.
Topic:
Security, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, Oil, and Maritime Commerce
Political Geography:
China and East Asia
Publication Identifier:
9780231165082
Publication Identifier Type:
ISBN

230. Return of the Dragon: Rising China and Regional Security

Author:
Denny Roy
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
Columbia University Press
Abstract:
Despite China's effort to maintain peace with its neighbors, its military and economic growth poses an undeniable threat. Regional states must account for a more powerful potential adversary in China, and China has become more ambitious in its efforts to control its surroundings. Historical baggage has only aggravated the situation as China believes it is reclaiming its rightful place after a time of weakness and mistreatment, and other Asia-Pacific countries remember all too well their encounter with Chinese conflict and domination. Through a careful consideration of historical factors and raw data, Denny Roy examines the benefits and consequences of a more politically, economically, and militarily potent China. Since China's intended sphere of influence encroaches on the autonomy of regional states, its attempts to increase its own security have weakened the security of its neighbors. Nevertheless, there is little incentive for Beijing to change a status quo that is mostly good for China, and the PRC thrives through its participation in the global economy and multilateral institutions. Even so, Beijing remains extremely sensitive to challenges to the Chinese Communist Party's legitimacy and believes it is entitled to exercise influence on its periphery. On these issues, nationalism trumps any reluctance to upset the international system. Diplomatic disputes regarding the islands in the South China Sea, as well as controversial relations with North Korea, continue to undermine Chinese promises of positive behavior. Roy's study reveals the dynamics defining this volatile region, in which governments pursue China as an economic partner yet fear Beijing's power to set the rules of engagement.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, International Trade and Finance, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:
China and East Asia
Publication Identifier:
9780231159005
Publication Identifier Type:
ISBN

231. China: Highlights and Key Issues

Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
The Chinese economy expanded by 7.4% year-on-year in Q3, down from 7.6% in Q2, but stronger than we had expected. Of particular surprise was the implied quarterly growth rate; based on the seasonally adjusted data released by the NBS, the economy expanded at an annualised rate of 9.1%, the strongest since 2011Q3.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
China and Syria

232. The Emergence of China in the Middle East

Author:
James Chen
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
During the 9th century, Arab traders regularly plied lucrative maritime routes that connected the Persian Gulf to southern China by way of the Indian Ocean. This commercial activity, which mostly involved jade, silk, and other luxury goods, went on for centuries and became part of what is now known as the Silk Road. In some ways, the world is now witnessing a restoration of that ancient trading relationship between two civilizations—except that oil and consumer goods have replaced jade and silk.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
China, Middle East, and Arabia

233. How to Integrate Human Rights into U.S.-China Relations

Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Human Rights First
Abstract:
When to press China's leadership on human rights, how hard, and with what tools has been an ever-changing calculation, as successive U.S. administrations have tried to balance America's strategic and economic interests in the expanding U.S.-China relationship with America's leadership as an advocate for and protector of universal rights and freedoms.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States and China

234. Freeing the Global Market: How to Boost the Economy by Curbing Regulatory Distortions

Author:
Shanker A. Singham
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The U.S. economy faces major challenges competing internationally. One of the most worrisome is the growing use in China and other advanced developing countries of anticompetitive market distortions (ACMDs)—including regulatory protection that privileges specific companies—which put foreign competitors at a disadvantage. ACMDs are government actions that give certain business interests artificial competitive advantages over their rivals, be they foreign or domestic, to the detriment of consumer welfare. These market distortions are especially damaging to the industries in which the United States enjoys the greatest comparative advantages, but they are also harmful to the long-term prosperity of developing economies and cost the global economy trillions of dollars. To combat ACMDs, the conventional trade policy approach of focusing on the The U.S. economy faces major challenges competing internationally. One of the most worrisome is the growing use in China and other advanced developing countries of anticompetitive market distortions (ACMDs)—including regulatory protection that privileges specific companies—which put foreign competitors at a disadvantage.1 ACMDs are government actions that give certain business interests artificial competitive advantages over their rivals, be they foreign or domestic, to the detriment of consumer welfare. These market distortions are especially damaging to the industries in which the United States enjoys the greatest comparative advantages, but they are also harmful to the long-term prosperity of developing economies and cost the global economy trillions of dollars.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, India, and Brazil

235. Is China's outward investment in oil a global security concern?

Author:
Ilan Alon and Aleh Cherp
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
The motivations prompting China's dramatic increase in outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) are not always clear, especially regarding OFDI by state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in energy and natural resources. First, both commercial and governmental interests are intertwined, although not necessarily in lock-step. Chinese SOEs listed in the West may worry about the reputational risks to their global corporate citizenship, while government stakeholders may instead focus on diplomatic international relations. Second, subsidies for oil investments may be viewed as serving Chinese national interests and threatening the national security of the host countries. Whether China's OFDI will benefit or harm global energy security, economic development and diplomatic relations is still hotly contested.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, Oil, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
China

236. A new economic nationalism? Lessons from the PotashCorp decision in Canada

Author:
Sandy Walker
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
In its World Investment Report 2011, UNCTAD reported that liberalizing investment policy measures taken globally in 2010 outnumbered restrictive measures. Without the benefit of statistics, investors might have drawn the opposite conclusion, witnessing what appears to be a rising tide of national resistance to foreign takeovers: the Australian Foreign Investment Review Board's rejection of a takeover of the Australian Securities Exchange by the Singapore Exchange, Italian concern over a French company's takeover of dairy giant Parmalat and the US Government's requirement that Chinese company Huawei divest certain assets it had acquired from 3Leaf.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
United States, China, Canada, Australia, and Singapore

237. Starting anew in international investment law

Author:
M Sornarajah
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
The legitimacy of investment arbitration becomes increasingly questioned, with liberal states like Australia moving away from the regime. Defenders seek to ensure the survival of this regime of asymmetric investment protection, using a variety of techniques. The conservation of the gains of property protection has resulted in novel arguments relating to the existence of a global administrative law and standards of global governance. These arguments seek to preserve an approach associated with the failure of market fundamentalism and global economic crises. As long as the inequity contained in regulatory restraints of the system affected only the powerless states, it operated with vigor; but with powerful states feeling the effects of regulatory restraints of investment treaties, there has been movement away from the earlier premises of the established regime.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China, India, and Australia

238. China: Industry Forecast

Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
GDP is expected to rise by 7.9% in 2012 and expand by 8.7% in 2013. Over the next 10 years to 2021, GDP is predicted to grow on average by 7.8% a year. Manufacturing output growth is forecast to be higher than GDP growth over the next decade. Manufacturing output is expected to increase by 8.8% in 2012 and expand by 9.4% in 2013. Over the next 10 years to 2021, manufacturing output is expected to grow on average by 7.9% a year. As a result, the share of manufacturing output in GDP is projected to rise from 34.0% in 2011 to 35.1% by 2016 and increase to 35.6% by 2021. Over the same period, the share of service sector output in GDP is expected to expand from 41.7% in 2011 to 43.8% in 2016 and rise to 45.5% in 2021.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
China and Israel

239. The U.S.-Japan Alliance: Anchoring Stability in Asia

Author:
Joseph S. Nye and Richard L. Armitage
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
This report on the U.S.-Japan alliance comes at a time of drift in the relationship. As leaders in both the United States and Japan face a myriad of other challenges, the health and welfare of one of the world's most important alliances is endangered. Although the arduous efforts of Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell and his colleagues in both governments have largely kept the alliance stable, today's challenges and opportunities in the region and beyond demand more. Together, we face the re-rise of China and its attendant uncertainties, North Korea with its nuclear capabilities and hostile intentions, and the promise of Asia's dynamism. Elsewhere, there are the many challenges of a globalized world and an increasingly complex security environment. A stronger and more equal alliance is required to adequately address these and other great issues of the day.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Israel, Asia, and North Korea

240. The Politics of Contestation in Asia: How Japan and Pakistan Deal with their Rising Neighbors

Author:
Daniel Flemes, Georg Strüver, and Hannes Ebert
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Rising powers have attracted tremendous interest in international politics and theory. Yet the ways in which secondary powers strategically respond to regional changes in the distribution of power have been largely neglected. This article seeks to fill this gap by presenting a systematic comparative analysis of the different types of and causes of contestation strategies undertaken by secondary powers. Empirically, it focuses on two contentious regional dyads in East and South Asia, exploring how structural, behavioral, and historical factors shape the way in which Japan and Pakistan respond, respectively, to China's and India's regional power politics. The paper concludes that the explanatory power of these factors depends on the particular context: in the case of Japan, China's militarily assertive regional role has invoked the most significant strategic shifts, while in the case of Pakistani contestation, shifts in polarity have had the largest impact on the strategic approach.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Development, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Japan, China, and India

241. China's leadership: handover The changing of the guard

Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
On November 8th this year China will begin the once-a-decade process of changing its leaders, with the launch of the 18th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). This will, by coincidence, come just two days after the US presidential elections. Both events will have momentous repercussions, both for the countries involved and for the world, but they will mark a study in contrasts. Unlike the US, China's succession battles are being waged in near secrecy, yet observers are already sure who the next president and premier will be. Less clear is what exactly China's new leadership will stand for. This report will examine their backgrounds and policy positions, asking what we can expect from the incoming administration.
Topic:
Communism, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States and China

242. Retail 2022: How the Economist Intelligence Unit sees the retail landscape changing over the next decade

Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
Markets of the future—China, India, Brazil and Russia—will become the dominant retail markets l Africa, the final frontier—as BRIC opportunities diminish retailers will look to Africa as a driver of growth l Virtual marketplace— e-commerce, m-commerce and s-commerce—will transform the global retail landscape l Bricks and mortar will fight back as traditional retailers respond to change by integrating online with physical store offerings l Convenience will be king as shopping habits evolve into a multichannel approach rather than “one-stop shopping” l UK focus: polarised shopping habits could continue even when incomes recover, leading to an even greater squeeze on mid-market retail by 2022.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Science and Technology, and Communications
Political Geography:
Russia, China, United Kingdom, India, and Brazil

243. Global Technology Sourcing in China's Integrated Circuit Design Industry: A Conceptual Framework and Preliminary Findings

Author:
Barry Naughton and Dieter Ernst
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
The paper examines the role of global technology sourcing, and its drivers and impacts in China's integrated circuit (IC) design industry. IC design is one of the priority targets of China's innovation policy, as codified especially in the ―Strategic Emerging Industries‖ initiative. At the same time, however, China's IC design industry is deeply integrated into the vertically disintegrated global semiconductor industry, through markets, investment and technology. The paper highlights a fundamental challenge for China's innovation strategy: How can China reconcile its primary objective of strengthening indigenous innovation with the benefits that it could reap from its deep integration into international trade and into global networks of production and innovation?
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
China and Israel

244. A Policy Mismatch: Canada and the United States in the Asia-Pacific Region

Author:
James Manicom
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
The United States and Canada have simultaneously re- invigorated their diplomatic and military postures toward the Asia-Pacific region. As two of the world's closest allies, it is worth exploring the possible synergies and tensions between their efforts to identify areas of possible policy coordination. Canada has considerable assets that could support US diplomacy in the region, including the legacy of its good offices and its close ties with the US military; however, these assets are outweighed by three liabilities. First, Canada's diplomacy to the Asia-Pacific is driven by its desire to diversify away from the US market. Although relatively innocuous in isolation, the politics of this shift, driven by growing concern in Canada about whether the United States remains a reliable market for energy exports, adds a layer of complexity. Second, Canada's closer economic ties with China could undermine its willingness to support the United States on tough regional security issues in the Asia-Pacific. Third, and related, Canadian silence about navigational freedoms, the primary security issue between the United States and China in East Asia, has not gone unnoticed. This paper argues that, on balance, Canada may not be an ideal Pacific partner for the United States.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, China, Canada, East Asia, Asia, Australia/Pacific, and Asia-Pacific

245. South China Sea: Core Interest Extraordinaire

Author:
Martin A Sebastian
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Maritime Institute of Malaysia
Abstract:
China's powerful Central Military Commission has approved the formal establishment of a military garrison for the disputed South China Sea, the state media has announced, a move which could further boost tensions in already fractious region. This news comes after China established the city of Sansha, on 21 June as a rhetoric to Vietnam's Maritime Law announcement on the same day. Vietnam's Maritime Law which reportedly takes effect early 2013, forms a legal framework to serve the utilisation, management and protection of Vietnam's sea and islands, including the Paracels and Spratlys, as well as the development of sea-borne economy, so as to facilitate it's international integration and boost cooperation with other countries.
Topic:
Development, International Law, International Trade and Finance, Maritime Commerce, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
China

246. Monetary Policy and Banking Supervision: Coordination instead of separation

Author:
Daniel Gros and Thorsten Beck
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The June 2012 European Council decided that the legal basis for the 'Single Supervisory Mechanism' should be Article 127(6) of the Treaty, and that the SSM should 'involve' the ECB. This implies only that supervision should be concentrated within the ECB. In the policy discussion it is, however, generally taken for granted that there should be 'Chinese walls' between the supervisory and monetary policy arms of the ECB. The current legislative proposal is explicit on this account.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and Governance
Political Geography:
China and Europe

247. US Tire Tariffs: Saving Few Jobs at High Cost

Author:
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Sean Lowry
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
In his 2012 State of the Union address, President Obama claimed that "over a thousand Americans are working today because we stopped a surge in Chinese tires." The tire tariff case, decided by the president in September 2009, exemplifies his efforts to get China to "play by the rules" and serves as a plank in his larger platform of insourcing jobs to America.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States, China, and America

248. Projecting China's Current Account Surplus

Author:
William R. Cline
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
For several years China has run persistent current account surpluses that have been widely seen as the most serious single source of global imbalances on the surplus side, and mirrored by persistent systemically large US current account deficits on the other side. In recent years, however, both imbalances have shown moderation (figure 1). China's surpluses have posed questions of international policy rules, because they have reflected in part an unwillingness to allow the exchange rate to appreciate sufficiently to act as an effective equilibrating mechanism. Exchange rate intervention resulted in a massive buildup of international reserves, which rose from $615 billion at the end of 2004 to $3.2 trillion at the end of 2011 (IMF 2012a).
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, Foreign Exchange, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Israel

249. Choice and Coercion in East Asian Exchange Rate Regimes

Author:
C. Randall Henning
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper examines the exchange rate regimes of East Asian countries since the initial shift by China to a controlled appreciation in July 2005, testing econometrically the weights of key currencies in the implicit baskets that appear to be targeted by East Asian monetary authorities. It finds, first, that Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore and the Philippines have formed a loose but effective “renminbi bloc” with China, and that South Korea has participated tentatively since the global financial crisis. Second, the emergence of the renminbi bloc in terms of the exchange rate has been facilitated by the continued dominance of the US dollar as a trade, investment, and reserve currency. Third, exchange rate stabilization is explained by the economic strategies of these countries, which rely heavily on export development and financial repression, and the economic rise of China. Fourth, analysts should specify the exchange rate preferences of these emerging market countries carefully before drawing inferences about Chinese influence within the region.
Topic:
Development, Emerging Markets, Foreign Exchange, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China, Malaysia, Asia, South Korea, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand

250. Networks, Trust, and Trade: The Microeconomics of China–North Korea Integration

Author:
Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
A central hope of engagement with North Korea is that increased cross-border exchange will encourage the strengthening of institutions, and eventually, a moderation of the country's foreign policy. An unprecedented survey of Chinese enterprises operating in North Korea reveals that trade is largely dominated by state entities on the North Korean side, although the authors cannot rule out de facto privatization of exchange. Little trust is evident beyond the relationships among Chinese and North Korean state-owned enterprises. Formal networks and dispute settlement mechanisms are weak and do not appear to have consequences for relational contracting. Rather, firms rely on personal ties for identifying counterparties and resolving disputes. The weakness of formal institutions implies that the growth in exchange does not conform with the expectations of the engagement model and may prove self-limiting. The results also cast doubt that integration between China and North Korea, at least as it is currently proceeding, will foster reform and opening.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
China, Israel, and North Korea