Political Geography: China / Topic: Economics

201. Who Can Win the Possible China-US Trade War?

Author:: Li Chunding
Publication Date:: 06-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: This paper uses a multi-country global general equilibrium (GE) model to numerically simulate the effects of possible China-US trade wars. We introduce an endogenous trade imbalance structure with trade cost into the model which helps to explore both tariff and non-tariff trade war effects. Our simulation results show that China will be significantly hurt by the China-US trade war, but negative impacts are affordable. The US can gain under unilateral sanction measures to China, but will lose if China takes retaliation measures. Comparing the effects under mutual trade war, China will lose more than the US. Introducing non-tariff barrier trade wars will intensify the negative effects, and comparatively negative effects to China are larger than to the US. Mexico’s involvement in trade war with the US will strengthen the negative effects and comparatively hurt the US more. Under non-cooperative and cooperative Nash bargaining equilibrium, the US can gain more than China in trade war negotiation, which means the US has stronger bargaining power than China. Additionally, trade wars between China and the US will hurt most countries and the world especially in GDP and manufacturing employment, but benefit their welfare and trade.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Tariffs, and Trade Wars
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

202. Country-Risk Rating of Overseas Investment from China (2018)

Author:: CROIC-IWEP
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: China's outbound direct investment hit a new high in 2016, reaching $196.15 billion, making the country the world's second-largest overseas investor. The volume of its outbound direct investment increased by 34.7% year-on-year in 2016 and accounted for 13.5% of the world's total — the first time it exceeded 10%. Since 2003, when the Ministry of Commerce joined hands with the National Bureau of Statistics and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange to start releasing authoritative investment data annually, China's outbound direct investment has kept increasing for 14 consecutive years. From 2002 to 2016, the annual average growth of its outbound direct investment reached 35.8%. In 2016, China's outbound direct investment once again exceeded the foreign direct investment it received, making it a net capital exporter for two consecutive years. Meanwhile, its outbound direct investment stock hit $1.35739 trillion at the end of 2016, the 6th largest in the world, two notches up compared with in 2015. In 2016, China had the most overseas M&A deals in history in terms of both number and value of M&A deals. In the future, China is expected to bring out more of its investment potentials and build a win-win cooperative relationship with other countries following its economic transition and upgrading, rising competitiveness of Chinese enterprises in overseas markets and steady advancement of the Belt and Road Initiative.
Topic:: Economics, Foreign Direct Investment, and Investment
Political Geography:: China and Asia

203. Inequality dynamics in China: Income growth for the poor, but more for the rich

Author:: Shi Li and Terry Sicular
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: In the late 1970s, China embarked on a major programme of economic transition and reform. Since then, China’s economy has been transformed from a socialist planned economy to a predominately market economy characterized by a combination of state, private, and mixed forms of ownership. Over the past forty years, household incomes have risen six-fold, poverty has declined dramatically, and in recent years a new class of ultra-rich has emerged. These developments have naturally led to questions about inequality trends in China.
Topic:: Economics, Poverty, Reform, Income Inequality, and Welfare
Political Geography:: China and Asia

204. The Mainstream Economics Interpretation of the Local State and Central-Local Relations in Post-Mao China: a Critical Review

Author:: Alexandre De Podesta Gomes
Publication Date:: 11-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:: Decentralization and the role of local governments have long been touted as key factors in the Chinese economic miracle. This paper intends to critically assess the chief theories advanced by mainstream economics in its attempt to make sense of these aspects of China’s growth story. Firstly the theoretical underpinnings of fiscal federalism, new institutional economics, and market-preserving federalism approaches will be presented, as these theories offer the bedrock for most of the applied insights in which China is framed through the lenses of the central-local relations debate. Secondly, the idea of ‘market-preserving federalism, Chinese-style’ will be critically appraised, highlighting its shortcomings. Thirdly, the paper proceeds by bringing in the mainstream response to these problems, relying on the notion of political incentives and career concerns faced by local cadres. It will be argued that the continual adherence to some core tenets dear to the new institutional economics literature in all previous explanations prevents this broad camp of knowledge to properly grasp the complex dynamics of China’s decentralization drive and the role of local governments in the process. Finally, and in closing, an alternative approach will be offered.
Topic:: Economics, Local, Decentralization, and Federalism
Political Geography:: China and Asia

205. Social Stability and Resource Allocation within Business Groups

Author:: Haikun Zhu
Publication Date:: 08-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: Using datasets on transactions within business groups and social sentiment in China, I show that state-owned enterprises (SOEs) use internal funds to address social unrest, complying with the government’s political goals. I use plausibly unexpected shocks to regional stability to analyze the response of SOEs to these events. I find that the government, as the controlling shareholder, adopts a carrot-and-stick approach. The government offers a “carrot” by injecting funds into SOEs located in the affected areas, which are then used to generate benefits to the public, such as larger labor payments and additional capital expenditures. However, if there are severe political conflicts that threaten its authority, the government applies a “stick” by withdrawing resources. The SOEs channel seems effective because local sentiment recovers around shocks when SOEs offer more benefits. Additional tests show that the SOEs channel is significant in economic magnitude compared to fiscal redistribution. As a result of the transfer, SOEs lose value after shocks, but firms in the region improve their performance later. This paper provides new evidence on how the intra-group allocation of resources incorporates political objectives, and has socioeconomic impact.
Topic:: Economics, Political Economy, Business, Capital, and Social Stability
Political Geography:: China and Asia

206. CAN ECONOMIC SANCTION ACTIVITY IMPROVE HUMAN RIGHTS PRACTICES?

Author:: K. Chad Clay
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:: Governments often use economic sanctions for the expressed reason of curbing poor human rights practices by targeted states. However, previous research on the topic (e.g. Peksen 2009; Wood 2008) has found that the imposition of economic sanctions is regularly followed by increases in the use of torture, extrajudicial killing, political imprisonment, and enforced disappearance (also known as physical integrity rights abuses) by the targeted government, even when the sanctions are imposed over the target’s human rights practices. This raises a question: if sanctions produce worse human rights outcomes in the states targeted with them, why do governments continue to use them to try to improve human rights? There are many possible answers to that question, but in my recent article at the Journal of Global Security Studies, I focus on two in particular. First, while the imposition of economic sanctions may very well lead to increased abuse in targeted states, the threat of human rights-related economic sanctions may lead to improvements in the targeted government’s human rights practices (e.g. Drezner 2003; Lacy and Niou 2004). Second, targeted states may not be the only, or even the most important, audience for the signal sent by sanction activity (Baldwin 1985). As such, by showing observing leaders around the world that there is a possible additional cost associated with human rights abuse, rights-related sanction activity may cause some governments that were not targeted with sanctions to think twice before engaging in rights violations.
Topic:: Economics, Human Rights, and Sanctions
Political Geography:: China, Burundi, and Global Focus

207. Chinese and Indian Competition in Space Heats Up

Author:: Sudha Ramachandran
Publication Date:: 10-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: At the height of the Cold War the United States and the Soviet Union used money and weapons to build satellite states; today China and India are using satellites in space to win influence and secure their geo-political and economic interests. They see each other as competition in the global satellite launch business. So how do the Indian and Chinese space programs compare? In which areas is competition likely to be most intense?
Topic:: Economics, Science and Technology, Geopolitics, Soft Power, and Space
Political Geography:: China, India, Asia, and Sri Lanka

208. China Pakistan Economic Corridor – A geo-economic masterstroke of China

Author:: Inayat Kalim
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Development of China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), with all its associated projects, favorably influences the geo-strategic and geo-economic prospects of China. Geo-strategic location of Gwadar further facilitates China to capture transit trade with Central Asia, Afghanistan and the Middle East and influence this regional accessibility with a viable and secured corridor for further expansion of regional economic cooperation. Since the emergence of China as an energy importer in late 90s, it has adopted a „go out‟ strategy to secure energy assets through procurement and long term energy investment in the energy rich countries, mostly in the Persian Gulf states and convert historical routes into a modern grid of energy pipelines, roads and railways for its energy supplies. The strategy aims at using financial means such as building new seaports, infrastructure development and military and hydrocarbon cooperation between regional countries to establish an artery for ensuring uninterrupted crude oil supply to its territory. This Chinese approach has been referred by many intellects around the globe as the revitalization of the Silk Road Strategy to link China with surrounding regions to generate immense economic dividends.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, Geopolitics, and Soft Power
Political Geography:: Pakistan, China, South Asia, Asia, and Punjab

209. Progress and Implications of the China-Korea FTA

Author:: Li Si-qi, Tu Xin-quan, and Liu Bin
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: The article focuses on the China-Korea FTA, analyzing the background of China-Korea bilateral economic relations, the characteristics of the China-Korea FTA and more importantly, the implications and future prospect of this free trade pact. So far, the China-Korea FTA is considered to be the most comprehensive compared with China's previous FTAs and may be the largest in trade terms among all the FTAs concluded by Korea and China, playing a positive role in advancing economic integration in the Asia-Pacific region. However, with lots of exceptions to tariff elimination and market access, as well as a 20-year transition period, the present version of the China-Korea FTA is far from the best in terms of the depth of liberalization and the scope of obligations on trade and investment rules. The recent bilateral diplomatic tensions due to the decision of deploying the THAAD missile system by the Korean government may also jeopardize bilateral economic ties between China and Korea, and further increase uncertainties of the China-Korea FTA. It remains to be seen whether the Chinese and Korean governments will handle this issue smoothly under the present sensitive political atmosphere and achieve substantial progress in follow-up FTA negotiations on services and investment.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Economics, Bilateral Relations, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:: China, Asia, South Korea, and Korea

210. Present Conditions of North Korean Industry and Possible Reconstruction Plans

Author:: Lim Soo-ho and Hong Seok-ki
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: Since the collapse of industry during the 'Arduous March' (1995-1997), Pyongyang has continuously launched reconstruction plans but has failed to see a rebound. The key is to restore industrial linkages; however, the DPRK allocated a majority of state investment to the defense industry under the 'Military First Economic Policy.' As long as the 'strategic sector' retains priority, a sound outcome seems to be out of reach. In reality, North Korea's comparative advantage lies on labor-intensive business, with abundant labor forces at a low cost. After unification, such industries will have bright prospects with technology and capital not only from South Korea, but also from China and Japan. The economic integration scenario of the two Koreas -- whether radical or gradual -- will decide industrial policies for the upper half of the peninsula in the post-unification era.
Topic:: Economics, Science and Technology, History, Reconstruction, and Industry
Political Geography:: Japan, China, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and Korea

211. China's Future and the Determining Role of the Market for Ideas

Author:: Ning Wang
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Cato Journal
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: The ultimate success of China’s search for economic prosperity, cultural renaissance, and a “peaceful rise” depends, in large part, on whether a free market for ideas can reemerge and flourish in China. The concept of the “market for ideas” (sixian shichang) was first introduced to a Chinese audience by Ronald Coase and myself in How China Became Capitalist (Coase and Wang 2012, see also Coase 1974). It quickly won acceptance among academics and the media. China is the only leading economy where the production and communication of ideas remains under strict state control. Universities, the primary venue where new ideas are produced, are run by the state. Newspapers, radio and TV stations, and publishers are all controlled by the state; ideas unwelcome by the state have a hard time to see the light of day. Because the freedom to supply ideas, choose ideas, and criticize ideas is severely limited, the creativity of the Chinese people is underutilized and their innovative potential undertapped.
Topic:: Economics, History, and Freedom of Press
Political Geography:: China and Asia

212. Will We Derail US Freight Rolling Stock Production?

Author:: Oxford Economics
Publication Date:: 05-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: US freight railcar manufacturers contribute $6.5 billion to U.S. GDP and support nearly 65,000 jobs. However, increased global competition and evidence suggesting unfair business practices puts this contribution at risk. Oxford Economics conducted an original study that evaluates the practices of Chinese state-owned enterprises' (SOE) push into the U.S. market and the potential risks to domestic manufacturers and domestic supply chains. The study focuses primarily on U.S. freight railcar production and includes consequences from a similar experience in Australia's freight railcar production, when faced with the entrance of Chinese SOEs.
Topic:: Economics, Hegemony, State Actors, and Transportation
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Australia, Australia/Pacific, North America, and United States of America

213. China and the Middle East: Venturing into the Maelstrom

Author:: James M Dorsey
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: China’s increasingly significant economic and security interests in the Middle East have several impacts. It affects not only its energy security but also its regional posture, relations with regional powers as well as the United States, and efforts to pacify nationalist and Islamist Uighurs in its north-western province of Xinjiang. Those interests are considerably enhanced by China’s One Belt, One Road initiative that seeks to patch together a Eurasian land mass through inter-linked infrastructure, investment and expanded trade relations. Protecting its mushrooming interests is forcing China to realign its policies and relationships in the region. As it takes stock of the Middle East and North Africa’s volatility and tumultuous, often violent political transitions, China feels the pressure to acknowledge that it no longer can remain aloof to the Middle East and North Africa’s multiple conflicts. China’s long-standing insistence on non-interference in the domestic affairs of others, refusal to envision a foreign military presence and its perseverance that its primary focus is the development of mutually beneficial economic and commercial relations, increasingly falls short of what it needs to do to safeguard its vital interests. Increasingly, China will have to become a regional player in competitive cooperation with the United States, the dominant external actor in the region for the foreseeable future. The pressure to revisit long-standing foreign and defence policy principles is also driven by the fact that China’s key interests in the Middle East and North Africa have expanded significantly beyond the narrow focus of energy despite its dependence on the region for half 1 China has signalled its gradual recognition of these new realities with the publication in January 2016 of an Arab Policy Paper, the country’s first articulation of a policy towards the Middle East and North Africa. But, rather than spelling out specific policies, the paper reiterated the generalities of China’s core focus in its relations with the Arab world: economics, energy, counter-terrorism, security, technical cooperation and its One Belt, One Road initiative. Ultimately however, China will have to develop a strategic vision that outlines foreign and defence policies it needs to put in place to protect its expanding strategic, geopolitical, economic, and commercial interests in the Middle East and North Africa; its role and place in the region as a rising superpower in the region; and its relationship and cooperation with the United States in managing, if not resolving conflict.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Economics, Imperialism, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:: Africa, United States, China, Middle East, Asia, and North Africa

214. Is Indonesia the Next China?

Author:: Wendy Dobson
Publication Date:: 02-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: This paper reviews Indonesia’s economic prospects and what these imply for a closer relationship with Canada. By posing the question “Is Indonesia the next China?,” the author suggests that Indonesia has the considerable economic potential envisaged by foreign investors, but conveys uncertainty as to whether Southeast Asia’s most populous country can make the changes necessary to realize that potential. A review of the economic record and comparison of China’s and Indonesia’s economic structures, endowments and institutions show major differences between the two countries. The paper further questions what it will take to realize Indonesia’s potential, finding the answers to be: human capital development; increased participation in the region’s global value chains; meeting the growing middle-class demand for modern services; raising productivity in agriculture and fishing; and increasing use of the Internet. Failure to make these changes will increase the chances of Indonesia’s growth in per capita incomes slowing and falling into the middle-income trap. Canada’s role will be to monitor closely how Indonesia tackles its five priorities at the same time as it responds to the opportunities to exploit Indonesia’s abundant natural resources, urbanization and its expanding consumer demand for modern services and educational opportunities.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, Human Welfare, International Trade and Finance, Natural Resources, and Regulation
Political Geography:: China and Indonesia

215. At the Crossroads: The TPP, AIIB, and Japan's Foreign Economic Strategy

Author:: Saori N. Katada
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: In 2015, two mega-initiatives took shape that will affect economic relations in the Asia-Pacific region: the US-promoted Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement and the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). Although they address different needs, both are expected to have profound effects on Asia's economic governance in the near future, and will shape economic norms in the Asia Pacific and beyond. Japan has joined the TPP but stayed out of the AIIB, decisions that might seem counterintuitive considering its history of resisting trade liberalization and of promoting infrastructure investment. Is Japan simply favoring its US ally over rival China? Or is it that Japan's position on the TPP and AIIB aligns with its own economic priorities, and enhances its geo-economic advantage? With a US-China competition over economic ideas and regional strategies, Japan occupies a unique position that may allow it to influence the direction of Asia-Pacific economic governance, which is now being battled out by the two "titans."
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: China and Asia

216. S-Japan Relations and Southeast Asia: Meeting Regional Demands

Author:: Saul P. Limaye and Tsutomu Kikuchi
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Until recently, Southeast Asia had not been a region of sustained focus for the US-Japan relationship. But the situation is changing. The international relations of the Asia-Pacific is becoming more "multipolarized." This requires the US and Japan to think about the future of the region beyond the issue of US-China relations, which has preoccupied past discussions. A number of nations and institutions in the Asia-Pacific region will substantially affect the region's future. Southeast Asian nations and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are among them. A new era of more coordinated, sustained, and combined commercial and security involvement by the US and Japan in Southeast Asia may be at hand. In light of these changes, the East-West Center in Washington (EWCW), in collaboration with the Japan Institute of International Affairs (JIIA), and through the support of the Sasakawa Peace Foundation (SPF), initiated a dialogue with Southeast Asians about their perspectives on how the US-Japan relationship and alliance could or should approach cooperation with the region.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Markets, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, China, and Asia-Pacific

217. From Catching Up to Forging Ahead in Advanced Manufacturing—Reflections on China’s Future of Jobshina's Evolving Role in Latin America: Can it Be a Win-Win?

Author:: Dieter Ernst
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: This paper explores what we know about possible employment effects of the 10-year plan, issued by the State Council on May 19, 2015, entitled Made in China 2025. MIC2025 was designed to address China’s emerging labor shortage challenge. To achieve this goal, the plan seeks to boost labor productivity through an increased use of robots and through network-based upgrading of the entire industrial value chain and related services. How might the projected increase in labor productivity affect the creation and quality of jobs in China? Will China’s push into advanced manufacturing now move the country’s manufacturing employment closer to the pattern of “employment de-industrialization” observed in the US and other industrialized countries? How China will cope with the advanced manufacturing challenge for employment will have major implications not only for the US and other industrialized countries, but also for emerging economies and, most importantly for the majority of developing countries that are still struggling as latecomers to labor-intensive industrial manufacturing. The paper lays out objectives of the MIC 2025 plan and highlights a failure of Chinese policy makers to take into account employment effects and other labor market issues when they design their grand visions of industrial policy. The paper finds that until 2014, manufacturing has acted as an employment absorber in China. However new data on unemployment, labor force participation and income inequality signal that China may now be moving towards an “employment de-industrialization” pattern, unless enough knowledge-intensive service jobs will be created in China’s growing information economy. The paper concludes with implications for policy and further research.
Topic:: Economics, International Political Economy, Markets, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:: China

218. Beyond Manufacturing: Developing the Service Sector to Drive Growth in the PRC

Author:: Wei Wang, Gemma Estrada, Jurgen Conrad, Sang-Hyo Lee, and Donghyun Park
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: As demand from global markets declines, slowing exports of manufactured goods from the People's Republic of China means the country must increasingly rely on domestic markets for growth. Unlike manufactured goods, services—those "intangible" products that include everything from transportation to scientific research to real estate services—are geared more toward domestic markets. Services, then, will be key to the rebalancing process. However, while the service sector has grown rapidly in the PRC, it continues to lag behind other countries at similar stages of development. In addition, the sector is dominated by traditional low-end types of services, rather than knowledge-intensive services. Heavy regulatory burdens, barriers to trade in services, and an unfavorable policy environment have been major obstacles to upgrading the sector and improving its competitiveness. Policy reform should focus on strengthening competition to raise productivity, with the goal of increasing not only the number of jobs and contribution to GDP, but also of positioning the service sector to compete internationally and spur export growth.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, Reform, and GDP
Political Geography:: China

219. New Sanctions, Old Dilemmas

Author:: Scott Snyder and See-Won Byun
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: North Korea’s fourth nuclear test in January and long-range rocket launch in February drew global opposition in the form of UN Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 2270 and condemnation by regional leaders. Pyongyang, however, promptly dismissed such calls with a series of short- and mid-range missile launches in March and April. Presidents Xi Jinping and Park Geun-hye expressed support for full implementation of UN sanctions in bilateral talks at the Nuclear Security Summit (NSS) in Washington. Foreign Ministers Wang Yi and Yun Byung-se pledged their commitment to denuclearization at the fifth Foreign Ministers Meeting of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA) in Beijing on April 27-28, where Xi declared that China “will absolutely not permit war or chaos on the peninsula.” Despite Beijing’s hardened rhetoric, current tensions on the Korean Peninsula point to enduring differences between Beijing and Seoul’s strategic preferences.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Economics, Military Strategy, Sanctions, and Denuclearization
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and North Korea

220. Friction and Cooperation Advance Simultaneously

Author:: Bonnie S. Glaser and Alexandra Viers
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: Senior US and Chinese officials publicly emphasized positive developments in the bilateral relationship at the eighth US-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue, while privately raising concerns. The second US-China Cybercrime and Related Issues High-Level Joint Dialogue convened a week later. The South China Sea persisted as a major area of tension as an UNCLOS Tribunal ruled in favor of the Philippines in its case against China. National Security Adviser Susan Rice traveled to Beijing in late July to prepare for the US participation in the G20 Summit in Hangzhou and what is likely to be the last meeting between Xi Jinping and President Obama. Bilateral military ties maintained an active pace with a visit by the US chief of naval operations to China in July, a port visit by a US guided-missile destroyer to Qingdao in August, and Chinese participation in the Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) military exercises in Hawaii.
Topic:: Development, Diplomacy, Economics, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

221. Reaching the Limits: China as a Responsible Stakeholder

Author:: John Lee
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:: Given the U.S.-China economic relationship and China’s importance in Asia, America’s temptation is to seek a comprehensive cooperative framework to perpetuate its leadership and “tame” a rising China in order to promote stability in the region. Increasing economic interdependence does create common interests, and structured dialogues can reduce misunderstanding. But as Asia’s preeminent power and civilization for all but 200 of the past 3,000 years, China is too big, proud, and independently minded for America to “tame” or “manage.” Washington cannot hope to decisively determine the endgame for an authoritarian China-in which the CCP, leading a country of 1.4 billion people, will choose to become a “responsible stakeholder” within a U.S.-led order.
Topic:: Economics, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, International Order, and Stakeholders
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

222. Understanding the Recent trend of Income Inequality in China

Author:: Juzhong Zhuang and Shi Li
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:: This paper examines underlying factors that could explain the decline in income inequality in China since 2008 and inquires whether the decline indicates China‘s income inequality has peaked following the Kuznets hypothesis. The paper first identifies four key drivers of rising income inequality in China since the mid-1980: rising skill premium, declining share of labor income, increasing spatial inequality, and widening inequality in the distribution of wealth. It then provides evidence that the reversal of these drivers, with the exception of wealth inequality, could partly explains the decline in income inequality since 2008. The paper argues that since part of the reversal of these drivers is policy-induced, it is important that the policy actions continue for income inequality to decline further. The paper further argues that a critical factor underlying the Kuznets hypothesis is that taxation and transfers play a bigger role in income redistribution as a country becomes more developed, while their role is still limited in China, the future path of China‘s income inequality may not be one-directional, and may stay high before personal income tax plays a bigger role.
Topic:: Economics, Inequality, Income Inequality, and Tax Systems
Political Geography:: China and Asia

223. Developing or Under-Developing? Implications of CHina's "Going Out" for Late Development

Author:: Dic Lo
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:: Since the turn of the century, China’s influence on world development has increased enormously. This paper seeks to analyse major attributes of the influence of China’s “going out”, centring on the argument that the influence has been in the main conducive to the rest of the developing world. Specifically, this paper offers a critique of relevant, popular theses such as “China’s neoliberalization crowds out world development”, “China under-cuts the conditions of the world’s working class”, and “China exhibits a tendency towards imperialism”, etc. It is argued that, in the context of a neoliberal world economy that is increasingly speculation-oriented, China’s production-oriented activities can be seen as an important countervailing force. Whether this China influence is to continue to be conducive to world development in the future, or to turn to become detrimental, depends critically on the broader political-economic context.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Hegemony, Trade, and Influence
Political Geography:: China and Asia

224. The Changing Pattern of China's Economic Relations with Southeast Asia

Author:: Anne Booth
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:: This paper examines the debates which have arisen in the ten countries of ASEAN about the impact of growing trade and investment ties with China, both before and after the full implementation of the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement in 2010. It examines the changes which have taken place in the country composition of trade and investment flows within the ASEAN countries, and between the ASEAN countries, China, and the rest of the world. The evidence indicates that while merchandise trade values have increased between China and ASEAN since 2010, the increase has not been as rapid as some predicted. But China is now running a substantial trade surplus with the ASEAN countries; the value of exports from China to ASEAN exceed the value of imports to China from the ASEAN countries. This surplus could lead to frictions in the future. Investment flows from China to ASEAN are still small in relation to flows into ASEAN from the rest of the world.
Topic:: Economics, Migration, Hegemony, and Trade
Political Geography:: China and Asia

225. Full Issue: Money & War

Author:: Sarah Detzner, James Copnall, Alex de Waal, Ian M. Ralby, Joshua Stanton, Ibrahim Warde, Leon Whyte, Richard Weitz, Jessica Knight, John H. Maurer, Alexander Tabarrok, Alex Nowrasteh, Tom Keatinge, Emily Knowles, Karolina MacLachlan, Andrew Lebovich, Caroline Troein, and Anne Moulakis
Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: The Fletcher Security Review: Managed and edited by students at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, we build on the Fletcher School’s strong traditions of combining scholarship with practice, fostering close interdisciplinary collaboration, and acting as a vehicle for groundbreaking discussion of international security. We believe that by leveraging these strengths – seeking input from established and up-and-coming scholars, practitioners, and analysts from around the world on topics deserving of greater attention – we can promote genuinely unique ways of looking at the future of security. Each issue of the Review is centered around a broad theme – in this issue, we tackle “Money & War.” Money influences every aspect of warfare, conventional or unconventional. No nationstate military, insurgent group, terrorist network, trans-national criminal organization, or hybrid actor can be understood, or countered, without knowing where the money is coming from – as well as where, and how, it gets spent. Evolutions and revolutions in financial tools and practices quickly translate to transformations in military affairs, and some cases, vice versa.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, Human Rights, Governance, Sanctions, Military Affairs, Finance, Islamic State, Navy, Arab Spring, Maritime, Conflict, Multilateralism, Islamism, Drugs, and Currency
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Africa, China, Iran, Sudan, Darfur, Middle East, Asia, North Korea, Mali, Asia-Pacific, Sahel, United States of America, and North America

226. Fletcher Opening Arctic Conference

Author:: Rabia Altaf, Molly Douglas, and Drew Yerkes
Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Many Western leaders point to the Arctic as a zone of cooperation—and we have observed such cooperation with the formulation of the Arctic Council, joint scientific endeavors, Search and Rescue agreements, and the very recent Arctic Coast Guard Forum—but disputes between Russia and other Arctic nations in regions to the south have raised concerns in certain quarters. While an ongoing struggle for dominance over the Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage and competing continental shelf claims may reflect these tensions, tit-for-tat military exercises and plans for expanded military infrastructure in the Arctic certainly do. The Russian government recently announced completion of a new military base in Franz Josef Land capable of supporting 150 soldiers, as well as its intention to rebuild six existing airfields. While such a nominal increase in military personnel posted to the Arctic may merely be seen as a posturing act, taken in context with Russia’s recent actions in Europe and the Middle East, it might also be seen as a bold move to project power from a previously overlooked region.
Topic:: Security, Economics, International Cooperation, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Asia, North America, Arctic, and United States of America

227. The Belt and Road initiative: connecting China and Central Europe

Author:: Xiao Fang
Publication Date:: 12-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Issues: Slovak Foreign Policy Affairs
Institution:: Slovak Foreign Policy Association
Abstract:: China and Central Europe have experienced similar transitions over time and have a constructive role to play in the international system, taking on responsibility for development. Cooperation between China and Central and Eastern European Countries is conducted via the “16+1” mechanism, the Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st century maritime Silk Road, known as the “Belt and Road initiative.” Central European countries are EU member states and emerging economies. They are located at a geographically strategic juncture and form part of the East Asia–Transatlantic value chain. The 16+1 mechanism is helping China and Central European countries establish high level annual meetings and is encouraging the private sector, business, people-to-people exchanges. The Belt and Road initiative is providing new financing facilities, and a dialogue with the European Commission on investment plans is being launched. Studies and working groups are emerging to help set strategies, build mechanisms, allocate resources and implement policies. This article argues that the Chinese approach, i.e. the 16+1 mechanism and Belt and Road initiative, is platforms paving the way for China–Central Europe cooperation.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Politics, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: China and Central Europe

228. Future of trade relations within the 16+1 group: risks and opportunities

Author:: Vilem Semerak
Publication Date:: 12-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Issues: Slovak Foreign Policy Affairs
Institution:: Slovak Foreign Policy Association
Abstract:: The paper provides an overview of stylized facts on current trends in trade between the PRC and the 16 Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. The potential effects of the “One Belt, One Road” initiative are discussed as are policy recommendations for the CEE countries. Trade with China is seen as complementary to trade with the core of the EU (and with the mutual trade of the CEE region,) once the international fragmentation of value chains is taken into account. Multilateral and plurilateral (e.g. EU-based) approaches to relations with China are likely to generate fewer risks compared to isolated solutions based on national interest pursued individually by CEE countries.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Politics, and Multilateral Relations
Political Geography:: China, Eastern Europe, and Central Europe

229. Coming out of the shadows: the Polish perspective on China–Central and Eastern Europe relations

Author:: Justyna Szczudlik
Publication Date:: 12-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Issues: Slovak Foreign Policy Affairs
Institution:: Slovak Foreign Policy Association
Abstract:: In the last two decades, Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have not played an important role in China’s foreign policy and vice-versa. EU membership did not change China–CEE relations remarkably. The situation started to change once the global financial and economic crisis hit. CEE began to notice that China is an economic and political partner to be reckoned with. Meanwhile, despite the crisis, the PRC started to look at CEE as a stable region – especially in economic terms. At the beginning China decided to strengthen bilateral ties with CEE countries. But in mid-2011 Beijing took the first step to launch cooperation with CEE as a region,
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Politics, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: China and Central Europe

230. Blowing from the East

Author:: Agnes Szunomar
Publication Date:: 12-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Issues: Slovak Foreign Policy Affairs
Institution:: Slovak Foreign Policy Association
Abstract:: China is increasingly perceived in Central and Eastern Europe as a country which could bring economic success to the countries of the region through the development of trade relations and the growing inflow of Chinese investment. Within the region, Hungary is regarded as occupying a prominent position by Chinese people and the government for several reasons. Chinese relations have historically been good: over the past decade Hungarian governments have committed themselves to developing the relationship. This trend was further confirmed after the global economic crisis of 2008, when Hungary started looking for new opportunities in its recovery from recession. The “Eastern opening” policy was initiated after the crisis and partly because of it. Officially, this policy puts more emphasis on further developing Chinese–Hungarian relations than was previously the case, including increasing trade and investment. However, the outcomes of the policy – such as the construction of the Budapest–Belgrade railway line – can be evaluated in different ways.
Topic:: Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
Political Geography:: China and Central Europe

231. Migration from China to Slovakia

Author:: Peter Ondris
Publication Date:: 12-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Issues: Slovak Foreign Policy Affairs
Institution:: Slovak Foreign Policy Association
Abstract:: While numerous specialist studies about Chinese communities have been published in other countries in the region, this is not the case in Slovakia. Therefore there is a general lack of information about the Chinese community in Slovakia. The objective of this study is, at least partially, to fill this gap. While in many cases, i.e. in Central and Eastern Europe, businesses run by Chinese migrants have contributed to the economic stabilization of the region, including in Slovakia. It should be noted that the number of Chinese people in Slovakia has in the last ten years decreased as a percentage of the foreigners living legally in Slovakia. One could assess this as being a consequence of Slovakia’s EU membership and its adoption of European legislation. The Slovak government has adopted policies to try to change the nature of Chinese migration to Slovakia and attract more educated people and businessmen.
Topic:: Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, European Union, and Multilateral Relations
Political Geography:: China, Eastern Europe, Hungary, Central Europe, and Slovakia

232. China’s Hidden Obstacles to Socioeconomic Rebalancing

Author:: Boy Lüthje and Christopher A. McNally
Publication Date:: 10-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: The global financial crisis of 2008-09 led to a policy consensus in China that its socioeconomic development model needed rebalancing. China's rapid development has been based on extensive growth reliant on exports, low wages, environmental exploitation, and the manufacturing of cheap products. China's current plans identify paths to economic rebalancing through intensive growth driven by rising investment in new technologies and manufacturing processes, improved wages and skills, and improved worker and environmental protections. Two industries, automotive and information technology, demonstrate the experience of and opportunities for rebalancing. Both offer improved employment conditions with better wages, but continue to incorporate large swaths of low-wage employment with little protection for workers' health and the environment. Economic rebalancing in China, therefore, has so far only appeared in pockets. Institutional safeguards for wages and labor standards remain constrained by powerful alliances among multinational corporations, Chinese state-owned/private enterprises, and the Chinese state.
Topic:: Economics, Political Economy, Labor Issues, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: China

233. From Catching Up to Forging Ahead: China’s Policies for Semiconductors

Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: China, the world's leading exporter of electronic products, faces a fundamental dilemma. It is the largest and fastest-growing market for semiconductors, the core component of those electronics products. Yet, at least 80 percent of the semiconductors used in China's electronics products must be imported. As a result, China's trade deficit in semiconductors has more than doubled since 2005 and now exceeds the huge amount it spends on crude oil imports. To correct this unsustainable imbalance, China's new strategy to upgrade its semiconductor industry seeks to move from catching up to forging ahead in semiconductors. The strategy calls for simultaneously strengthening advanced manufacturing and innovation capabilities in China's integrated circuit (IC) design industry and its domestic IC fabrication, primarily through foundry services. Drawing on policy documents and interviews with China-based industry experts, this study takes a close look at the objectives, strategy, and implementation policies of China's new push in semiconductors and examines what this implies for China's prospects in this industry. The study shows that China's new policy resorts to private equity investment rather than subsidy as the tool of industrial policy. The government participates in equity investment and claims it will do so without intervening in management decisions. This policy is expected to reduce the cost of investment funds for a selected group of firms, which is to form a "national team" in the semiconductor industry. China's new policy to upgrade its semiconductor industry through innovation does not represent a radical break with its deeply embedded statist tradition. Within these boundaries, however, the study detects important changes in the direction of a bottom-up, market-led approach to industrial policy. In response to the rising complexity and uncertainty of today's semiconductor industry, the government seems more open to experimentation with new approaches to investment finance and flexible, bottom-up policy implementation, based on multilayered industrial dialogues with private firms. China's policies to forge ahead in semiconductors, thus, provide an interesting example of its current efforts to move from investment-driven catching up to an innovation-driven development model.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Oil, Science and Technology, and Financial Markets
Political Geography:: China

234. The ASEAN Economic Community: What Stands in the Way?

Author:: Jon Dorsch
Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: At the end of 2015 the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) will announce the establishment of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). In theory, this agreement should produce an association-wide economic integration. However, following the announcement, and for the foreseeable future, ASEAN member states will continue in significantly less than full regional economic integration. Why? Some observers believe that the AEC plans involve an "overly ambitious timeline and too many ill-thought-out initiatives." Others point to ASEAN's traditional aversion to legally binding agreements. While progress has been made in reducing or eliminating intra-ASEAN trade tariffs, substantial non-tariff barriers to trade persist. However, for most member states, the ASEAN market is relatively small while external markets, especially China, are growing rapidly. Given this outward-orientation for ASEAN trade, is the lack of an unhindered regional market really a problem?
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:: China and Asia

235. China’s Hidden Obstacles to Socioeconomic Rebalancing

Author:: Christopher McNally and Boy Lüthje
Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: The global financial crisis of 2008-09 led to a policy consensus in China that its socioeconomic development model needed rebalancing. China's rapid development has been based on extensive growth reliant on exports, low wages, environmental exploitation, and the manufacturing of cheap products. China's current plans identify paths to economic rebalancing through intensive growth driven by rising investment in new technologies and manufacturing processes, improved wages and skills, and improved worker and environmental protections. Two industries, automotive and information technology, demonstrate the experience of and opportunities for rebalancing. Both offer improved employment conditions with better wages, but continue to incorporate large swaths of low-wage employment with little protection for workers' health and the environment. Economic rebalancing in China, therefore, has so far only appeared in pockets. Institutional safeguards for wages and labor standards remain constrained by powerful alliances among multinational corporations, Chinese state-owned/private enterprises, and the Chinese state.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, Science and Technology, Labor Issues, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: China

236. China’s Rise and Reconfiguration of Central Asia’s Geopolitics: A Case for U.S. "Pivot" to Eurasia

Author:: Roman Muzalevsky
Publication Date:: 07-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: China’s emergence as a global actor has questioned the position of the United States as the strongest power and the future of the Washington-led global order. To achieve the status of a truly global player wielding influence in all dimensions of power would require China to leverage its regional influence in Central Asia. This region is increasingly representing China’s western leg of economic expansion and development, and is of a growing strategic importance for Beijing. It is also a region that should be of greater strategic importance to Washington, which seeks to preserve its leading position in the international system and ensure China’s peaceful integration in the global political, security, and economic architecture.
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Hegemony, Global Markets, and Global Security
Political Geography:: China, Eurasia, and Asia

237. David Martin Jones, Nicholas Khoo and MLR Smith, Asian Security and the Rise of China: International Relations in an Age of Volatility

Author:: Dylan Kissane
Publication Date:: 02-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Central European University Political Science Journal
Institution:: Central European University
Abstract:: If there is one issue in contemporary international relations that continues to provoke interest in academic and policy making circles alike it is how states, regions and the world should react to a rising China. While the influence of the People's Republic is being felt from Africa and the Global South through to the developed economies of North America and Europe, it is in East Asia where a re-emerging China has most focused the minds of diplomats and strategists, leaders and scholars and, indeed, the military men and women who must navigate this increasingly precarious great power polity. Within this East Asian context this new volume by David Martin Jones, Nicholas Khoo and MLR Smith delivers thoughtful and attentive analysis to the problem of responding to China's rise. The book is neither a historical account of the rise of China, though it does offer sufficient historical contextualisation for the reader, or another collection of prescriptive policy suggestions, though there are clear conclusions made about which regional and state strategies have best dealt with the rise of the Sinic superpower. Instead, this book is a theoretically informed, consistently argued and well written account of how states in a broadly defined East Asia have and continue to react to the changing security environment that confronts them in the first decades of the twenty-first century.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Economics, and Environment
Political Geography:: Africa, China, America, and Asia

238. China Makes Strides with AIIB and a Great Wall of Sand

Author:: Bonnie S. Glaser and Jacqueline Vitello
Publication Date:: 05-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: 2015 opened with high-level exchanges in preparation for the Strategic and Economic Dialogue, scheduled for early summer, and Xi Jinping’s state visit in September. Visits to China were made by Deputy Secretary of State Tony Blinken, Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew, Commerce Secretary Penny Pritzker, and Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson. Chinese State Councilor Yang Jiechi met National Security Adviser Susan Rice in New York. Military exchanges included dialogues, ship visits, joint drills, and video calls. The South China Sea remained a source of friction as evidence mounted that China is building military outposts on reefs in the Spratly Islands. In response to the issuance of the revised US-Japan Defense Guidelines, China voiced concerns and called the alliance outdated. Despite US objections, a total of 57 countries signed up to be founding members of the Chinese-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. China held its annual meetings of the National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Congress, announcing an economic growth target of around 7 percent and an increase in its defense budget of 10.1 percent in 2015.
Topic:: Economics, Military Strategy, Territorial Disputes, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:: China and Asia

239. Ambitious Economic Initiatives amid Boundary Disputes

Author:: Chin-Hao Huang and Robert G. Sutter
Publication Date:: 05-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: Beijing’s recent economic initiatives with neighboring countries focus on the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the Chinese Silk Road Fund. The Boao Forum featured a keynote speech by President Xi Jinping emphasizing the AIIB and Silk Road Fund support for infrastructure connectivity with neighbors to create a “common destiny.” Against that positive background, lower-level Chinese officials, using carefully measured language, rebuffed complaints by the Philippines, Vietnam and the US protesting China’s rapid creation and expansion of islands through massive dredging and follow-up construction of facilities. Senior leaders did respond sharply when Myanmar armed forces killed Chinese civilians in a cross-border air attack in March. In a departure from past practice, ASEAN leaders publicly registered serious concern about the land reclamation in the South China Sea. Against that positive background, Chinese leaders generally sidestepped the strong language seen at the annual Chinese People’s Congress meetings and other venues in the recent past regarding Chinese determination to protect disputed sovereignty and insure peace through strength in dealing with territorial disputes. Senior leaders did respond sharply when Myanmar armed forces killed Chinese civilians in a cross-border air attack in March as the Myanmar military suppressed resistance by an ethnic militia with close historic ties to China. Chinese leaders tended to leave publicizing South China Sea disputes to lower-level officials, using carefully measured language to rebuff complaints made by US, Philippine, and Vietnamese representatives protesting China’s rapid creation and expansion of islands through massive dredging and follow-up construction of facilities for surveillance and power projection. In a departure from past practice, ASEAN leaders on April 27 publicly registered serious concern about the land reclamation in the South China Sea.
Topic:: Economics, Military Strategy, Territorial Disputes, and Conflict
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Myanmar

240. Looking to a Different Future

Author:: David G. Brown and Kevin Scott
Publication Date:: 05-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: Taipei’s relations with Beijing have been adrift with the Ma administration in a reactive mode. The main interactions have been on unexpected issues – China’s M503 air route and Taiwan’s effort to join the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) – and results were mixed. Meanwhile all players are preparing for a different future. The KMT is trying to reform itself; new chairman Eric Chu Li-lun visited China and met General Secretary Xi Jinping in early May. Beijing is focused on working with the new KMT and on deterring the DPP from returning to office in 2016. The DPP and Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen have begun defining its policy toward Beijing before Tsai visits Washington in June.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Economics, Territorial Disputes, and Conflict
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, and Asia

241. China's Political-Economic Institutions and Development

Author:: Chenggang Xu
Publication Date:: 10-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Cato Journal
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: After more than three decades of economic reform, China has transformed from being one of the poorest economies in the world to being the second-largest economy measured by nominal exchange rates, or the largest economy measured by purchasing power. As such, it is important to elucidate the determinants of China’s future development. This article will focus on China’s institutions. I argue that although the size of China’s economy is extremely important in terms of its impact on the global economy, it is misleading to ignore political and economic institutions. Indeed, forecasts based on extrapolating past trends could be erroneous (see Pritchett and Summers 2014). China was the largest economy in the world before the end of the 19th century but then lost ground to Western nations that established the rule of law and free trade. To understand China’s past and future development, one has to examine its institutions.
Topic:: Economics, Reform, and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:: China and Asia

242. The Power of Ideas and Leadership in China's Transition to a Liberal Society

Author:: Weiying Zhang
Publication Date:: 02-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Cato Journal
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: History and casual observations suggest that ideas and leadership are the two most important forces in all institutional changes. However, they have been absent or downplayed in conventional economic analysis of institutional changes. Conventional economics has exclusively focused on the notion of “interest” in explaining almost everything, from consumers' choices to public choices to institutional changes. IN particular, institutional changes have been modeled as a game of interests between different groups (such as the ruling and the ruled), with the assumption that there is a well-defined mapping from interests into outcomes.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: China

243. Internationalization of the Renminbi: Developments, Problems and Influences

Author:: Ming Zhang
Publication Date:: 03-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: Due to the 2008-2009 global financial crisis, the Chinese government began to promote renminbi (RMB) internationalization in order to raise its international status, decrease reliance on the US dollar (USD) and advance domestic structural reform. RMB internationalization has achieved progress not only in cross-border trade settlement, but also in the offshore RMB markets. However, the rampant cross-border arbitrage and the relatively slow development of RMB invoicing compared to RMB settlement are becoming increasingly problematic. RMB internationalization has exerted significant influence on not only the Chinese economy but also other emerging market economies. RMB internationalization complicates domestic monetary policy, exacerbates the currency mismatch on China's international balance sheet and increases both the scale and volatility of short-term capital flows. It offers emerging economies another alternative for pricing domestic currency and investing foreign exchange reserves. Its overall impact on the international monetary system's stability will depend on how the capital account is liberalized and the consistency and transparency of Chinese monetary policy. This paper concludes with five recommendations for Chinese policy makers to promote RMB internationalization in a sustainable way that is conducive to international stability.
Topic:: Development, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:: United States and China

244. The China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone: Backgrounds, Developments and Preliminary Assessment of Initial Impacts

Author:: John Whalley
Publication Date:: 02-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: The China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone (SPFTZ) founded in September 2013, is a trial for China's new round of “reform and opening up” (China.org.cn 2008). The SPFTZ has promised liberalization on capital account and trade facilitation as its main objectives. This paper discusses reasons why China needs such a pilot zone after three decades of economic development, examines the differences between the SPFTZ and other free trade zones (FTZs) and highlights the developments of the SPFTZ since its inception. The SPFTZ's initial impressions are assessed, especially its impact on the opening of China's capital account and financial liberalization. The hope is that the success of the SPFTZ, and more pilot policies replicated in China, will give rise to a more balanced Chinese economy in the following decade.
Topic:: Development and Economics
Political Geography:: China

245. The North Korea Crisis and Regional Responses

Author:: Ching-Chang Chen, Denny Roy, and Utpal Vyas
Publication Date:: 04-2015
Content Type:: Book
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: The Kim Jong Un (KJU) regime, since its inception, has ratcheted up tension on the Korean Peninsula. His decision to dishonor what he had agreed to—a moratorium on nuclear tests and long-range missile launches as well as the return of IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) inspectors to Yongbyon—at several rounds of bilateral talks with the United States in February 2012 confirmed the belief that North Korea is a historically unpredictable and unreliable actor. Because the new North Korean leadership needed to fulfill its promise that North Korea would enter an “era of being a strong and prosperous nation ( gangseongdaeguk ),” pursuing economic recovery by easing tension through reconciliation with the international community, including the United States, was of significance. North Korea could have obtained nutritional assistance including corn, soy beans, vegetable oils, and ready-to-eat therapeutic food, but instead it initiated a string of provocations and hostile threats, which brought China's patience to the limits, strengthened UN sanctions, and consolidated the US position not to engage with North Korea before Pyongyang shows concrete steps for denuclearization. Hence, for the international observers, North Korea's gamble seemed to be a grave mistake.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: China and North Korea

246. The Rise of China and Chinese International Relations

Author:: Emilian Kavalski
Publication Date:: 05-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Insight Turkey
Institution:: SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:: The discussion of China's growing prominence in international life has attracted the increasing attention of policy-makers, the public and scholars alike. Usually sidelined by the mainstream, such interest in China's role and position in global politics has grown exponentially in the context of the deepening concomitant economic, social and political crises across Europe and North America – which, until very recently, were considered the traditional locales of power and influence in world politics. Indicative of the emerging weight and significance of non-Western actors on the global stage, the trend set by China seems to challenge the conventional framework of the study and practice of International Relations (IR).
Topic:: International Relations and Economics
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and North America

247. Service Sector Reform in China

Author:: Ryan Rutkowski
Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Faced with slowing economic growth, Chinese policymakers now recognize that the service sector of the economy—transportation, communications, finance, and health care—could spur economic activity and employment. The catch is that China must reform these and other areas to accomplish this goal. Chinese leaders have outlined an ambitious agenda for reform, but myriad vested interests could slow or block their plans. This Policy Brief evaluates the steps taken so far and the difficulties that lie ahead in implementing them. If policymakers fail to reform and open up the service sector, they run the risk of seriously impairing China's growth prospects.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Labor Issues, Financial Crisis, and Reform
Political Geography:: China

248. After the freefall, what to expect from commodity prices

Publication Date:: 10-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: After the plunge in commodity prices in 2015, the outlook for raw materials remains highly uncertain amid slowing economic growth in China and looming interest rate rises in the US. In China—which gobbles up nearly one-half of the world’s consumption of aluminium, copper and coal—demand for base materials risks moderating further as the economy moves away from an investment-driven growth model. This will continue to have knock-on effects on the performance of commodity-exporting economies, weighing down on global consumption of raw materials. However, supply responses are beginning to emerge from commodity producers worldwide. Coupled with less favourable weather prospects, this will lead to some market tightening next year, allowing for some price stabilisation after four years of decline. This report provides a snapshot of The Economist Intelligence Unit’s current commodity price indexes, exploring the changing prices for industrial raw materials and food, feedstuffs & beverages. Each article provides analysis and forecasts across a number of key commodities, helping you to assess the fast-changing environment of commodity markets and influence key decision-making processes.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:: China

249. Happiness and health in China: The paradox of progress

Author:: Carol Graham, Shaojie Zhou, and Junyi Zhang
Publication Date:: 06-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Brookings Institution
Abstract:: The past two decades in China brought unprecedented rates of economic growth, development, and poverty reduction. Indeed, much of the reduction in the world’s extreme poverty rates during that time can be explained by the millions of people in China who exited poverty. GDP per capita and household consumption increased fourfold between the years 1990 and 2005.1 China jumped 10 places forward on the Human Development Index from 2008 until 2013, moving up to 93 of 187 countries, and life expectancy climbed to 75.3 years, compared to 67 years in 1980.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Health, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:: China

250. China's Evolving Role in Latin America: Can it Be a Win-Win?

Author:: Enrique Dussel Peters
Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Weeks before Chinese President Xi Jinping meets with President Barack Obama in Washington, the Atlantic Council's Latin America Center launched a new report that unravels the complexities of the Latin America-China relationship. Titled China's Evolving Role in Latin America: Can it Be a Win-Win?, the report provides five recommendations to help both China and Latin America usher in a mutually beneficial post-commodity-boom relationship. The key to long-term success will be to insure that the relationship promotes—rather than delays—economic growth and social progress in the hemisphere. In the report, renowned Mexico-based China Expert Enrique Dussel Peters, an Atlantic Coucil author and Professor at the Graduate School of Economics at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), calls for a ratcheting up of strategic planning and multilateral support so the relation¬ship is a win-win for all parties, including the United States. A deep dive of the state of play is provided for five countries: Argentina, Brazil, Cuba, Mexico, and Venezuela. These countries illustrate the spectrum of ties with China, ranging from those with long and complex historical relation¬ships to those almost entirely structured around recent opportunities for economic cooperation.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Economics, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: China and Latin America

251. Signaling Legitimacy to Foreign Investors: Evidence from Chinese IPOs on U.S. Markets.

Author:: Xu Jin, Donald Patton, and Martin Kenney
Publication Date:: 05-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: From 1999-2010 120 Chinese emerging growth firms undertook initial public stock offerings on U.S. markets. This provided a remarkable natural experiment for exploring how this class of organizations from a radically different political economy established their legitimacy and how, once established, this legitimacy permitted organizational and personnel flexibility for later firms. The increased legitimacy allowed changes in the backgrounds of the members of the IPO top management team (TMT) and independent members of the board of directors (BoD). We find that overall composition of both the TMT and BoD in terms of experience in the U.S. decreased and “Chineseness” increased, but at different rates. For the operational TMT members, U.S. experience decreased dramatically over time, except for the CFO who is the representative of investors within the TMT. Similarly, on the BoD, the venture capitalists continued to have high levels of US experience, while the other independent members tracked the TMT in having less US experience. In this increased legitimacy allows the acceptance of “foreign” operational management, but investors are less lenient in terms of ensuring that their “monitors,” the CFO and venture capitalists, should show evidence, i.e., U.S. experience and background, that they adhere to the investor’s values.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: China

252. Responding to Uncertainty: Syndication Partner Choice by Foreign Venture Capital Firms in China.

Author:: Xiao Huang, Martin Kenney, and Donald Patton
Publication Date:: 03-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: Cross-border venture capital investment has grown dramatically. Drawing upon observations about the liability of foreignness, previous research has shown that foreign venture capitalists (VCs) tend to partner with local VCs in order to offset information asymmetry and the liabilities of foreignness. Much of the literature has suggested that local VCs should help reduce operational uncertainty. This paper examines syndication partner choice in China, which today is likely the most uncertain environment in which foreign VCs operate on a large scale. This provides an ideal environment for understanding partner selection under uncertainty. Our results show that foreign investors are more likely to choose Chinese investors in later rounds and in more mature portfolio firms. While foreign firms with more Chinese experience are more likely to co-invest with Chinese VCs, the older foreign VC firms are less likely to do so. Remarkably, having a Chinese office made foreign VCs less likely to coinvest. In seed-stage investments, when uncertainty is the greatest, foreign firms are least likely to co-invest with Chinese VCs, and this was not affected by the maturation of the market, while at the later stage, when uncertainty is lowest, they are most likely to co-invest.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: China

253. An Assessment of the Korea-China Free Trade Agreement

Author:: Jeffrey Schott, Eujiin Jung, and Cathleen Cimino-Isaacs
Publication Date:: 12-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Of all the free trade agreements (FTAs) concluded by Korea with its major trading partners since the turn of the century, the Korea-China FTA may be the largest in trade terms. It is, however, far from the best in terms of the depth of liberalization and the scope of obligations on trade and investment policies. Korea and China agreed to liberalize a large share of bilateral trade within 20 years, but both sides incorporated extensive exceptions to basic tariff reforms and deferred important market access negotiations on services and investment for several years. Political interests trumped economic objectives, and the negotiated outcome cut too many corners to achieve such a comprehensive result. The limited outcome in the Korea-China talks has two clear implications for economic integration among the northeast Asian countries. First, prospects for the ongoing China-Japan-Korea talks will be limited and unlikely to exceed the Korea-China outcome. Second, Korea and Japan need to strengthen their bilateral leg of the northeast Asian trilateral and the best way is by negotiating a deal in the context of the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Politics, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States, China, Asia, and Korea

254. Estimates of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates, November 2015

Author:: William R. Cline
Publication Date:: 11-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The latest semiannual fundamental equilibrium exchange rate (FEER) estimates find that the US dollar is now overvalued by about 10 percent, comparable to levels in 2008 through early 2010 and again in 2011. Unlike then, the current strong dollar does not reflect a weak renminbi kept undervalued by major exchange rate intervention by China. Instead, China's current account surplus has fallen sharply relative to GDP, and its recent intervention has been to prevent excessive depreciation rather than to prevent appreciation. Additionally, declines in the real effective exchange rates (REERs) for major emerging-market economies and resource-based advanced economies, driven by falling commodity prices in recent months, have strengthened the dollar. Recent increases in the REERs for the euro area and Japan have removed their modest undervaluation identified in the last FEERs estimates in May, and the Chinese renminbi remains consistent with its FEER. The dollar's rise by nearly 15 percent in real effective terms over the past two years could impose a drag of nearly one-half percent annually on US demand growth over the next five years. As the Federal Reserve moves to normalize US monetary policy, it may need to consider a gentler rise in interest rates than it might otherwise have pursued, both to temper possible further strengthening of the dollar in response to higher interest rates and to help offset the demand compression from falling net export
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and GDP
Political Geography:: United States and China

255. Russia's Pivot to Asia: Myths and Realities

Author:: Daniele Fattibene
Publication Date:: 11-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Russia’s “pivot to Asia” has come to the fore in the wake of the crisis over Ukraine. Growing tensions with the West over the common neighbourhood, coupled with economic sanctions, have accelerated this trend, with China gaining in strength as both an economic and military partner to Moscow. The Kremlin’s propaganda has sought to convince the broader public that Russia’s strategies in Eastern Europe, Central Asia and the Arctic region are a complement to China’s new Silk Road Economic Belt. Nonetheless, behind the headlines huge potential problems jeopardise the emergence of a durable Sino-Russian consensus in Eurasia. Against this backdrop, the EU should opt for “strategic patience.” This would be a far more effective policy choice than finger pointing, which only deepens the mutual ideological clash between the EU and Russia.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, and Sanctions
Political Geography:: Russia, China, and Asia
Publication Identifier:: 978-88-98650-69-9
Publication Identifier Type:: ISBN

256. Maintaining Financial Stability in the People's Republic of China during Financial Liberalization

Author:: Nicholas Borst and Nicolas R. Lardy
Publication Date:: 08-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: China's banking system is now the largest in the world, and its capital markets are rapidly approaching the size of those in the advanced economies. Borst and Lardy trace the evolution of China's financial system away from a traditional bank-dominated and state-directed financial system toward a more complex, market-based system. They analyze and outline the optimal sequence of financial reforms needed to manage the new risks accompanying this evolution.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, Financial Crisis, and Reform
Political Geography:: China

257. Much Ado about Nothing? The RMB's Inclusion in the SDR Basket

Author:: Hongying Wang
Publication Date:: 12-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: The International Monetary Fund recently concluded its quinquennial review of the composition of the Special Drawing Right (SDR), accepting the Chinese currency into the SDR basket alongside four major international currencies — the US dollar, the euro, the British pound and the Japanese yen. The Chinese government has spent a great deal of energy and political capital to achieve this outcome. This policy paper explains China’s interest in this seemingly exotic and technical pursuit, identifying the political and economic motivations underlying this initiative.
Topic:: Economics, Politics, International Monetary Fund, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:: China

258. Rocky Road to a Level Playing Field in EU–China Investment and Trade Relations

Author:: Damian Wnukowski and Artur Gradziuk
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: At the beginning of 2014, the European Union and China launched negotiations on a bilateral investment treaty that would launch the next stage in economic relations between them. Although both approach numerous issues differently, they have also strong incentives to seek compromise. Reaching an agreement on investment topics could be a significant step towards creating a favourable environment for cooperation and resolving most contentious sticking points in bilateral relations in the near future. It could also become a template for future similar EU agreements.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, China, and European Union
Political Geography:: China and European Union

259. Sino-Japanese relations: power, interdependence, and domestic politics

Author:: Hiroki Takeuchi
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Relations of the Asia-Pacific
Institution:: Japan Association of International Relations
Abstract:: China and Japan have been deepening economic interdependence over the last two decades, while China has recently shown territorial ambitions and initiated disputes with Japan. This runs contrary to the commercial liberal literature that argues that trade promotes peace. On the other hand, the realist theory also does not fully explain Sino-Japanese relations because Sino-Japanese relations are not always in conï¬‚ict. The rise of China and the relative decline of Japan might explain increasing tensions in the rivalry relationship, but what drives Chinese leaders to initiate disputes? I address the importance of domestic politics to examine Sino-Japanese disputes. I argue that the recent deterioration of the bilateral relationship could be explained by the power struggle in the Chinese leadership. To support the logic of this argument, I use a game-theoretic model, which accounts for how the type of Chinese leadership inï¬‚uences foreign policy outcomes in Sino-Japanese relations.
Topic:: International Relations and Economics
Political Geography:: Japan and China

260. Japan's New Security Policy: Breaking Away from the Post–War Regime?

Author:: Bart Gaens
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: China is challenging the regional balance of power in East Asia through a military buildup and an increasingly assertive foreign policy. The US is forced to find the right balance between cooperating with China while benefiting from its economic rise, and countering China's regional reach by carrying out its self-declared "pivot" to Asia in spite of domestic and budgetary constraints. With just over one year in office, Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has received wide domestic support for his ambitious plans to revive Japan's economy through his threefold policy of Abenomics. At the same time, however, he has implemented a number of significant policies in the defence and security sphere. In response to China's military rise, the Abe administration increased and recalibrated the defence budget. Furthermore, in order to reinforce the alliance with the US, the government approved the creation of a US-style National Security Council, passed a Secrecy Bill, and aims to reverse Japan's self-imposed ban on exercising the right to collective self-defence. Under the banner of "proactive pacifism", the Abe cabinet is seizing the momentum caused by the changing regional power dynamics in order to edge closer towards "breaking away from the postwar regime". A proposed revision of Japan's constitution, unchanged since 1947, symbolizes the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) objective to bring about a more autonomous role for Japan both in the security alliance with the US and as an international actor.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Japan, China, and Asia

261. Lisa Schineller and Peter Kingstone debate: Is Brazil's economy too commodity dependent?

Author:: Peter Klingstone and Lisa Schineller
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Americas Quarterly
Institution:: Council of the Americas
Abstract:: Is Brazil's economy too commodity-dependent? Yes: Peter Kingstone; No: Lisa Schineller In this issue: Brazil's reliance on commodity exports threatens its medium- and long-term growth prospects. Brazil's economic success is based on more than the demand for natural resources.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: China and Brazil

262. The Global Fund's China Legacy

Author:: Yanzhong Huang
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (hereafter "the Global Fund" or "the Fund") is the world's main multilateral funder in global health and the largest financier of anti-AIDS, anti-tuberculosis (TB), and anti-malaria programs. Since its inception in 2002, the Global Fund has disbursed $23.2 billion to more than 140 countries; today, it accounts for 21 percent of the international funding for the prevention and treatment of HIV/AIDS, 82 percent of that for TB, and 50 per cent of that for malaria. Until recently, it awarded grants based on the need of individual countries and the quality of each proposal. As a performance-based initiative, it closely tracks the results flowing from each grant disbursement. As a value-oriented organization, it requires recipients to have transparent, accountable, and inclusive governance mechanisms. Indeed, in terms of multisectoralism and civil society participation, the Fund is considered the most progressive global health institution. But unlike many other health-related multilateral organizations, it is not an implementing agency and lacks in-country presence. Instead, as a funding mechanism, it has grant applications and project/program implementation in each country overseen by a "country coordinating mechanism" (CCM), which draws representatives from government, UN and donor agencies, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), the private sector, and people living with the diseases.
Topic:: Civil Society, Economics, Health, and Governance
Political Geography:: China and East Asia

263. Regional concentration of FDI involves trade-offs in post-reform India

Author:: Peter Nunnenkamp, Wan-Hsin Liu, and Frank Bickenbach
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: P. Chidambaram, India's Minister of Finance, claimed that "FDI worked wonders in China and can do so in India." However, China's example may also point to the limitations of foreign direct investment (FDI) liberalization in promoting the host country's economic development. FDI in China is heavily concentrated in the coastal areas, and previous studies have suggested that this has contributed to the increasing disparity in regional income and growth since the late 1970s.
Topic:: Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: China, South Asia, and India

264. The China-United States BIT negotiations: A Chinese perspective

Author:: Sheng Zhang
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: The China-US bilateral investment treaty (BIT) negotiations have attracted attention due to the relative size and weight of both economies. Despite broad consensus about the importance of such a treaty, there is considerable debate about its shape and content. The debate is reflected in two recent Columbia FDI Perspectives. Donnelly argued that a China-US BIT should be modeled on the US Model BIT without "splitting the difference between Chinese and US positions", and that the possibility of meaningful BIT negotiations are "really up to China at this point".
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, Foreign Direct Investment, and Governance
Political Geography:: United States, China, Europe, and Colombia

265. Northeast Asia's Turbulent Triangle: Korea-China-Japan Relations

Author:: Malcolm Cook
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: Northeast Asia is one of the most important crucibles of global economic and strategic change, and it is far from a stable one. The modern histories of China, Japan and South Korea were forged by Japan's colonisation of China and Korea and the Korean War that divided the peninsula and saw China on the side of North Korea and Japan on the side of South Korea. This recent history has left the bilateral relations on each side of this turbulent triangle strained by a lack of trust, popular antipathy and unresolved territorial disputes. As noted in the project's Beijing workshop, the stalled trilateral free trade agreement negotiations between the three Northeast Asian neighbours, launched with great hope in 1997, have been the victim of this turbulence and strain.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, Human Rights, Bilateral Relations, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:: Japan, China, Asia, and North America

266. Islam and instability in China's Xinjiang

Author:: Nick Holdstock
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: On March 1st 2014 a knife-wielding group of ten people attacked passengers and passers-by in the railway station in Kunming, capital of China's south-western Yunnan province. Twenty-eight were killed and 113 injured. By the following day the government was describing the incident as a "separatist" attack perpetrated by "terrorists from Xinjiang". The attack in Kunming is the latest in a series of violent incidents in China that the government attributes to radical Islamist organisations that aim to promote what it calls the "Three Evils" of "terrorism, separatism and religious extremism". These acts have predominantly occurred in China's far western Xinjiang region, most recently in January and February 2014. Incidents in other parts of China have been attributed to the same forces.
Topic:: Political Violence, Communism, Economics, Human Rights, and Islam
Political Geography:: China and Asia

267. Seeking security in Africa: China's evolving approach to the African Peace and Security Architecture

Author:: Chris Alden
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: China is on course to becoming more deeply involved in Africa's security landscape. While the motivation behind Chinese involvement remains primarily economic, the growing exposure of its interests to the vagaries of African politics, as well as pressures to demonstrate greater global activism, are bringing about a reconsideration of Beijing's approach to the continent. China faces threats on three fronts to its standing in Africa: reputational risks derived from its assocation with certain governments; risks to its business interests posed by mecurial leaders and weak regulatory regimes; and risks faced by its citizens operating in unstable African environments. Addressing these concerns poses challenges for Beijing, whose desire to play a larger role in security often clashes with the complexities of doing so while preserving Chinese foreign policy principles and economic interests on the continent.
Topic:: Economics, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Africa, China, and Asia

268. China's Long March Toward Economic Rebalancing

Author:: Hongying Wang
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: China's role in the global imbalance is closely linked to its domestic imbalance. Chinese policy makers have long been aware of the dual imbalance and the imperative to shift to economic growth driven by domestic consumption. They have taken limited steps in changing the development model, but political obstacles have slowed the pace of reform. The new leadership seems serious about deepening economic reform despite political resistance, but without political reform, the prospect of success remains dim.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and Governance
Political Geography:: China and Asia

269. China's energy demands: are they reshaping the world?

Author:: Gerald Stang
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:: In 2012, China was the world's seventh biggest producer of natural gas, the fourth largest oil producer, and the biggest producer of hydroelectricity. It also produced almost as much coal as the rest of the world combined. Still, this is not enough. China's domestic energy bounty has long allowed the country to keep its overall import dependency relatively low but, as the country's economy continues to boom, its import dependency is growing quickly, particularly with regard to oil.
Topic:: Economics, Energy Policy, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:: China and Asia

270. Breakout Nations: In Pursuit of the Next Economic Miracles

Author:: Selim Erbagci
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Insight Turkey
Institution:: SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:: Breakout Nations: In Pursuit of the Next Economic Miracles In the last decade, the world has witnessed an unprecedented development of many countries. The speed of this process has not only caused surprise but also has generated questions: How did these countries manage such significant improvements? Why have some other countries failed to reach a similar level of success during the same period? How long could this rapid development last? Ruchir Sharma answers these issues, explaining the common reason for rapid development during the last decade and also the country-specific internal dynamics behind the rapid development of countries such as China, India, Brazil, Turkey, Russia, Mexico, and South Korea. Finally, He also identifies the potential breakout nations for the next decade.
Topic:: Development and Economics
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Turkey, India, Brazil, and Mexico

271. China needs to complement its "going-out" policy with a "going-in" strategy

Author:: Karl P. Sauvant and Victor Z. Chen
Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: China's rising outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) faces rising skepticism abroad. This is partly the result of the leading role of state-owned enterprises in her OFDI (and the fear that it serves non-commercial purposes), the speed with which this investment has grown, the negative image of the home country in some quarters, and the challenges it poses to established competitors. Moreover, Chinese multinational enterprises (MNEs) may not always keep in mind that host countries see FDI as a tool to advance their own development and hence seek maximum benefits from it.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: China and Asia

272. High Tech: The Next Wave of Chinese Investment in America

Author:: Daniel H. Rosen and Thilo Hanemann
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Asia Society
Abstract:: WHILE CHINA STARTED INVESTING AROUND THE WORLD in the early 2000s, the first waves of Chinese overseas investment targeted mostly extractive mining activities in developing countries and resource-rich advanced economies such as Australia and Canada. Over the past five years, however, Chinese capital has begun to flow into non-extractive sectors in advanced economies, increasingly targeting technology- and innovation-intensive industries. Initially, the surge of Chinese outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) in the United States largely responded to opportunities in energy and real estate, but access to technology and innovation is now becoming an important driver. In the first quarter of 2014 alone, Chinese investors announced high-tech deals worth more than $6 billion, including the takeovers of Motorola Mobility, IBM's x86 server unit, and electric carmaker Fisker.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: China, America, Canada, Asia, and Australia

273. South Korea and China: A Strategic Partnership in the Making

Author:: Alain Guidetti
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: The visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to Seoul in July 2014 shows how the relations between China and South Korea have taken center stage in North- East Asia. Both countries are building up a growing strategic partnership, as a result of emerging cross-interests in the region and robust trade relations. This dynamic underlines the dilemma Seoul faces in maintaining a strong military alliance with the United States, while turning increasingly toward China as its core partner for both its economic development and its North Korea policy.
Topic:: International Relations and Economics
Political Geography:: United States, China, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and Northeast Asia

274. Speaking a Common Language with Latin America: Economics

Author:: Jose W. Fernandez
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Americas Quarterly
Institution:: Council of the Americas
Abstract:: United States-Latin American relations have often suffered from a disconnect. While we stress security issues, the region's leaders speak of poverty reduction and trade. They resent being seen as afterthoughts to U.S. policies focused elsewhere. As a result, the region is sporadically open to new suitors, such as Spanish investors 15 years ago, or the Chinese today.
Topic:: Economics and Poverty
Political Geography:: United States, China, Latin America, and Spain

275. China's Debt Dilemma: Deleveraging While Generating Growth

Author:: Yukon Huang and Canyon Bosler
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Much of the media coverage of China's economy suggests that the country is headed for a financial crisis. China's mountain of debt is decried, local government finances are labeled menacing, and a property bubble is called disastrous. But this picture is misleading. While China has serious debt problems, with prudent macroeconomic policies and productivity-enhancing structural reforms, the challenges should be manageable if underlying fiscal issues and growth-related reforms are addressed.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, and Reform
Political Geography:: China and East Asia

276. Avoiding the Blind Alley: China's Economic Overhaul and Its Global Implications

Author:: Daniel H. Rosen
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: PRESIDENT XI JINPING ANNOUNCED a sweeping overhaul for China's economy in November 2013, with pledges to make market forces decisive, treat homegrown and foreign investors with the same laws and regulations, and change the mission statement of the government. The reform program, known as the Decisions plan and presented at the Communist Party leadership's Third Plenum meeting, is comprehensive and marks a turning point in China's modern history. The degree of boldness also indicates that after 35 years of world-beating economic performance, China's development model is obsolete and in need of urgent, not gradual, replacement. To justify the risks, President Xi quoted an impassioned plea for policy modernization by his predecessor Deng Xiaoping: the only way to avoid a dead end – a blind alley – is to deepen reform and opening both at home and with the world.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, and Reform
Political Geography:: China

277. From Catching Up to Forging Ahead? China's Prospects in Semiconductors

Author:: Dieter Ernst
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: China's new strategy to upgrade its semiconductor industry (outlined in the "Guidelines to Promote National Integrated Circuit Industry Development," June 24, 2014), seeks to move from catching-up to forging ahead in semiconductors, by strengthening simultaneously China's integrated circuit (IC) design industry and domestic IC foundry services.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, Industrial Policy, Markets, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: China and Asia

278. China in the G20 Summitry: Review and Decision-making Process

Author:: Alex He
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: As the largest emerging economy, China believes that the Group of Twenty (G20), instead of the Group of Eight (G8), is the ideal platform for its participation in global governance. This paper examines the reasons why China joined the G20 rather than the G8, and then focuses on a detailed review of China's participation in G20 summits since the enhanced forum began in 2008. China took a very active and cooperative attitude in dealing with the global financial crisis in 2008-2009. The paper observes that China also insisted on its own agenda for reforms to the international monetary system, through reforms to the international financial institutions that manage it — in particular, raising the number of voting shares and the representation of developing countries at the IMF and the World Bank. Based on the reviews of China's performance in the G20 summits since 2008, the paper explores China's policy making through its participation in the G20, determining that it is shaped by several major economic departments in addition to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and coordinated by a vice premier responsible for economic and financial affairs. The paper concludes that China has gained immensely from its participation in the G20. Most importantly, China entered the centre stage of global economic governance through the G20, which allowed the country to demonstrate that it is a responsible great power, and communicate and maintain relations with other major powers. The main challenges China has faced since joining the G20, from the perspective of some Chinese scholars, are a lack of capacity for agenda setting and shaping initiatives, as well as inadequate communication and coordination among different government departments and between the Sherpa and financial tracks of the G20.
Topic:: Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, International Monetary Fund, Global Recession, Financial Crisis, and World Bank
Political Geography:: China

279. The Effect of Index Futures Trading on Volatility: Three Markets for Chinese Stocks

Author:: Pierre Siklos, Martin T. Bohl, and Jeanne Diesteldorf
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: This paper examines whether the introduction of Chinese stock index futures had an impact on the volatility of the underlying spot market. To this end, we estimate several Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models and compare our findings for mainland China with Chinese index futures traded in Singapore and Hong Kong. Our results indicate that Chinese index futures decrease spot market volatility with all three spot markets considered. In contrast, we do not obtain the same results for the companion index futures markets in Hong Kong and Singapore. China's stock market is relatively young and largely dominated by private retail investors. Nevertheless, our evidence is favourable to the stabilization hypothesis usually confirmed in mature markets.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:: China and Singapore

280. China's Goals in the G20: Expectation, Strategy and Agenda

Author:: Alex He
Publication Date:: 08-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: The G20 has emerged as the lynchpin of China's involvement in global economic governance. It remains the only economic institutional setting where the country can operate on par with major Western powers. China has a strong interest in maintaining the status of the G20 as the premier forum for economic cooperation, and a vested interest in ensuring that the G20 does not degrade into yet another “talk shop” of multilateral diplomacy. However, the Chinese leadership's current approach to the G20 is not driven by a desire to position the country as a leading agenda setter. Instead, China's main policy priority is ensuring that the country is treated as an equal and respected partner. China recognizes that in many ways it is still in a comparatively weak position and does not have the institutional capabilities and talents needed to operate in global financial and economic institutions such as the G20.
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States and China

281. Has India Peaked?

Author:: John R. Schmidt
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Washington Quarterly
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Has India peaked? This may seem like a strange question given the strong economic growth the country has experienced since it liberalized its economy in 1991. Together with China, India is widely regarded as the greatest global economic success story of the past quarter century, with growth rates typically ranging between 5 and 10 percent. 1 Although its growth rate has declined recently to less than 5 percent due in part to the global economic downturn, the landslide victory of the strongly pro - business BJP (for Bharatiya Janata Party, or Indian People's Party) in the spring 2014 elections has convinced many that it will begin trending up again in the near future.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: China and India

282. Iran Seeks to Untangle UN Sanctions

Author:: Steven Ditto
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The Islamic Republic has added to its nuclear negotiating team a law professor who has extensive experience making Iran's case in international disputes. On April 9, Iran and the P5+1 (Britain, China, France, Russia, and the United States, plus Germany) concluded the latest two-day round of talks on a nuclear deal, setting the next round for May 13. Earlier in the week, on April 7, Iranian media reported the appointment of Dr. Jamshid Momtaz as head of a "legal advisory group" to the Iranian negotiating team. A French-educated expert on sanctions, disarmament, and UN procedure, Momtaz has represented the Iranian government in some of its highest-profile international legal proceedings, including in claims against the U.S. government at the Hague-based International Court of Justice (ICJ). Momtaz's familiarity with the United Nations, his extensive practice in Europe, and his proven history of leveraging complex legal arguments to advance Iran's international interests indicate that in these latest rounds of P5+1 talks Tehran is likely looking for unconventional ways to "address" and "bring a satisfactory conclusion to" the UN Security Council resolutions against it, as called for in the Joint Plan of Action (JPOA) agreed to in Geneva last November.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Economics, Human Rights, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, Sanctions, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, China, Iran, and France

283. The rise of FDI income, and what it means for the balance of payments of developing countries

Author:: Miguel Pérez Ludeña
Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: Multinational enterprises (MNEs) multiplied their profits made in developing countries by four between 2002 and 2011 (at current prices). In Latin America and the Caribbean, they rose from US$20 billion in 2002 to US$113 billion in 2011. The growth rate has been even higher in Africa and China, but much lower in developed countries. This rise is explained by an increase in FDI stock in developing economies and the higher average profitability of MNEs.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: Africa, China, and Latin America

284. Balancing Without Containment: An American Strategy for Managing China

Author:: Ashley J. Tellis
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: China is poised to become a major strategic rival to the United States. Whether or not Beijing intends to challenge Washington's primacy, its economic boom and growing national ambitions make competition inevitable. And as China rises, American power will diminish in relative terms, threatening the foundations of the U.S.-backed global order that has engendered unprecedented prosperity worldwide. To avoid this costly outcome, Washington needs a novel strategy to balance China without containing it.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: United States, China, America, Washington, and Asia

285. Keeping the Peace in the Pacific: The Next Steps in American Policy

Author:: John Lee and Charles Horner
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: U.S. administrations and officials are consistently caught flat-footed by the increasing assertiveness of the People's Republic of China (PRC) over disputed territories in the East China and South China Seas. This assertiveness is strident, yet controlled. Beijing's objectives in the region, with respect to maritime issues in particular, have been apparent for several decades. While the United States is well aware of the PRC's "talk and take" approach—speaking the language of negotiation while extending de facto control over disputed areas—U.S. policy has been tactical and responsive rather than strategic and preemptive, thus allowing China to control the pace and nature of escalation in executing talk and take.
Topic:: International Relations, Diplomacy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Asia

286. India and Pakistan: The Opportunity Cost of Conflict

Author:: Shuja Nawaz and Mohan Guruswamy
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: India and Pakistan, born out of a single British-ruled entity in 1947, have continued an implacable rivalry marked by periodic wars and hostilities as well as through proxies. This unending conflict has led them to invest heavily in their militaries and even to choose nuclear weaponry as a deterrence on the part of Pakistan toward India and on India's part toward both Pakistan and China. Although there have been occasional moves toward confidence building measures and most recently toward more open borders for trade, deep mistrust and suspicion mark this sibling rivalry. Their mutual fears have fuelled an arms race, even though increasingly civil society actors now appear to favor rapprochement and some sort of an entente. The question is whether these new trends will help diminish the military spending on both sides.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Reform
Political Geography:: Pakistan, China, India, Asia, and Southeast Asia

287. The BRICS Development Bank: Why the world's newest global bank must adopt a pro-poor agenda

Author:: Lysa John
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: In July 2014, a new multilateral and Southern-led development bank is expected to be launched by the leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – better known as the BRICS. The BRICS Development Bank will provide a fresh source of finance for developing and emerging economies to meet their development needs. Little has been made public regarding the proposed Bank's core mandate or activities but while governments negotiate the technicalities of the Bank, it is critical that they also provide a solid vision of the principles, priorities and objectives on which the Bank's activities and operations will be premised. This policy brief recommends that these include commitments to: ending extreme poverty and inequality, with a special focus on gender equity and women's rights; aligning with environmental and social safeguards and establishing mechanisms for information sharing, accountability and redress; leadership on the sustainable development agenda; the creation of mechanisms for public consultation and debate; and the adoption a truly democratic governance structure.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Gender Issues, International Cooperation, and Poverty
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, China, Europe, India, Asia, South Africa, Brazil, and South America

288. Power Shift and Renminbi Internationalization: Recommendations for the G20

Author:: Raluca Diana Ardelean and Mengun Zhang
Publication Date:: 07-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: China has gained substantial economic power in recent years, becoming the second-largest trading nation after the United States and the largest goods-trading nation since 2012 (Eichengreen 2014). It is also currently the largest source of savings and the largest potential source of capital for international investment (ibid.). Measured by GDP, China is now the second-largest economy in the world (see Figure 1), and the World Bank surmises it is likely to surpass the United States in 2014 (World Bank 2014). Because of China's growing economic importance, a shift in power is reasonably assumed. As its economic power grows, internationalization of the RMB has become a key policy goal for China, especially after the 2008 financial crisis (Zhang 2009; Park 2010; China Securities Regulatory Commission [CSRC] 2014). This goal demonstrates China's desire for better integration and representation in the international economic community and signals its willingness to perform internal financial reforms and take more responsibility in global economic affairs.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Asia

289. The China-EU BIT: The emerging "Global BIT 2.0"?

Author:: Wenhua Shan and Lu Wang
Publication Date:: 08-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: Since China and the European Union (EU) announced their decision to negotiate a bilateral investment treaty (BIT) at the 14th China-EU Summit in February 2012, the two sides have engaged in two rounds of negotiations. If successful, it will be the first standalone EU BIT, a BIT between the world's largest developed economy and the world's largest developing economy, and will occupy a unique place in the history of BIT negotiations.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and Asia

290. Morocco's Emergence as a Gateway to Business in Africa

Author:: J. Peter Pham and Ricardo Rene Laremont
Publication Date:: 08-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Africa is home to seven of the world's ten fastest-growing economies. By 2050, the continent's population is expected to overtake India's and China's, doubling to two billion people. Moreover, those two billion Africans will be younger than their counterparts in every other region of the world and will account for one in four workers globally by mid-century. Africa's rich endowment of natural resources, including about 30 percent of the world's known reserves of minerals and 60 percent of the planet's uncultivated arable land, is already well-known to investors.
Topic:: Security, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: Africa, China, and Morocco

291. Iran and the P5+1: Getting to "Yes"

Publication Date:: 08-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: That nuclear negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 (China, France, Russia, the UK, U.S. and Germany) were extended beyond the 20 July 2014 deadline was neither unexpected nor unwelcome. The parties ha d made enough headway to justify the extension, which was envisioned in the Joint Plan of Action (JPOA) that was signed in November 2013 and came into force in January, but given the political and technical complexity, they remain far apart on fundamental issues. Unless they learn the lessons of the last six months and change their approach for the next four, they will lose the opportunity for a resolution not just by the new 24 November deadline but for the foreseeable future. Both sides need to retreat from maximalist positions, particularly on Iran's enrichment program. Tehran should postpone plans for industrial- scale enrichment and accept greater constraints on the number of its centrifuges in return for P5+1 flexibility on the qualitative growth of its enrichment capacity through research and development.
Topic:: Development, Diplomacy, Economics, Nuclear Weapons, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Iran, Middle East, and France

292. Is China's Property Market Heading toward Collapse?

Author:: Li-gang Liu
Publication Date:: 08-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: China's property market has slowed significantly since the first half of 2014, with sharp declines in sales and a buildup in the inventory of new homes. This sharper than expected downturn—which has affected not only second- and third tier smaller cities but also first-tier megacities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou—contrasts with last year's buoyant sales and double-digit price surge. Compounded by fears of a default in the shadow banking system and the perception of a highly leveraged Chinese economy, the sudden declines in the property sector are being watched closely. Many commentators believe this could be a turning point for the sector, triggering a hard landing of the Chinese economy and even a financial crisis. Over the last decade, China's property sector has become an important pillar for the country's growth as well as the key source for elevated commodity prices. A property market slump would hurt other sectors, as well as drag down resource-rich economies that rely heavily on China to buy their exports.
Topic:: Economics, Financial Crisis, and Urbanization
Political Geography:: Japan, China, and United Nations

293. Amérique latine Political Outlook 2013

Author:: Olivier Dabène, Gaspard Estrada, Damien Larrouqué, Nordin Lazreg, Delphine Lecombe, Frédéric Louault, Antoine Maillet, Frédéric Massé, Kevin Parthenay, Eduardo Rios, Darío Rodriguez, and Constantino Urcuyo-Fournier
Publication Date:: 12-2013
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:: Amérique latine - L’Année politique is a publication by CERI-Sciences Po’s Political Observatory of Latin America and the Caribbean (OPALC). The study extends the work presented on the Observatory’s website (www.sciencespo.fr/opalc) by offering tools for understanding a continent that is in the grip of deep transformations.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Foreign Exchange, History, Reform, Transitional Justice, Political Prisoners, and Memory
Political Geography:: China, Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, South America, Uruguay, Latin America, Venezuela, Mexico, Chile, and Guatemala

294. Impact of China‐Africa Investment Relations: The Case of Ethiopia

Author:: Alemayehu Geda and Atenafu G. Meskel
Publication Date:: 07-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
Abstract:: This study investigated the growing relation between Ethiopia and China in the last decade. It is possible for Chinese-Africa relations to be either complementary or competitive (or indeed both) and it has multifaceted features. Notwithstanding this multifaceted linkage, the study focused on one of the channels – the investment (FDI) channel. Other channels are explored depending on the degree at which they shed light on understanding the Chinese-Ethiopian investment relations, which is the subject of this study.
Topic:: Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:: Africa, China, Asia, and Ethiopia

295. The Impact of China‐Africa Investment Relations: The Case of Madagascar

Author:: Jean Razafindravonona, Eric Rakotomanana, and Jimmy Rajaobelina
Publication Date:: 07-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
Abstract:: The rapid and spectacular expansion of the Chinese economy in the recent past is, for African countries, an opportunity to take advantage of not only in terms of strengthening the South-South cooperation, but also of developing African economies. It is thus important to define the channels through which African countries would do so. It is with this goal in mind that the African Economic Research Consortium (AERC) initiated the research project on the impact of the economic relation between China and sub-Saharan African countries.
Topic:: Development, Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, Global Political Economy, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:: Africa, China, Asia, and Madagascar

296. The Impact of China‐Africa Trade Relations: The Case of the Republic of Congo

Author:: Jean‐Christophe Boungou Bazika
Publication Date:: 07-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
Abstract:: The relations between China and Congo are already old since they began in 1963. However since the beginning of the 2000s, the economic relations between the two countries are characterized by an unprecedented dynamism. Congo’s exports and imports with China recorded a leap of 179.38% and 309.21% respectively for the period 2001-2005. Such a trend pushed analysts to predict that the relations between Africa and China should have a significant impact and lead to upheavals in the structure of African economies. Two tendencies emerged in the literature: the first predicts that these relations would have a negative impact, in the sense that they would provoke a competition that African producers would not be able to bear. The second predicts that these relations would enable African countries to consolidate their growth, thanks to the diversification of trade and the installation of infrastructures which were lacking - such as roads, bridges, hydro-electric dams, drinking water purification plants, etc.
Topic:: Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, Global Political Economy, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:: Africa, China, Asia, and Republic of Congo

297. Mutual Assured Production

Author:: Richard Katz
Publication Date:: 07-2013
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Foreign Affairs
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: Tensions between China and Japan are rising, but an economic version of mutual deterrence is preserving the uneasy status quo. Put simply, China needs to buy Japanese products as much as Japan needs to sell them.
Topic:: Cold War, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:: Japan, China, and Beijing

298. Fake It Till You Make It

Author:: Kal Raustiala and Christopher Sprigman
Publication Date:: 07-2013
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Foreign Affairs
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: Given that Chinese counterfeiting has benefits as well as costs, and considering China's historical resistance to Western pressure, trying to push China to change its approach to intellectual property law is not worth the political and diplomatic capital the United States is spending on it.
Topic:: Economics and Law
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Europe

299. How to help the poor in a rich man's world

Author:: Jon Lidén
Publication Date:: 06-2013
Content Type:: Journal Article
Institution:: Chatham House
Abstract:: Donors need to be smarter as nouveau riche states leave masses trapped by poverty gap
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: China, Brazil, and Mexico

300. Joseph Nye, the inventor of the term 'soft power'

Author:: Alan Philps
Publication Date:: 06-2013
Content Type:: Journal Article
Institution:: Chatham House
Abstract:: He shares his thoughts on on America's role in an increasingly affluent world, Russia's decline and China's own goals
Topic:: Economics and United Nations
Political Geography:: Russia, China, America, Middle East, and Syria

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