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302. China's Economic Prospects 2006-2020
- Author:
- Sandra Polaski, Jianwu He, and Li Shantong
- Publication Date:
- 04-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- China's economic growth during the past twenty-five years has been remarkable, averaging more than 9 percent a year. While there have been earlier episodes of comparable growth rates in countries such as Japan and South Korea, there is no precedent for such rapid growth in a country the size of China, whose population of 1.3 billion is thirteen times that of Japan when that nation began its rapid growth. The impact on the rest of the world of economic dynamism on this scale is already being felt. If China continues its rapid growth in the coming decades, it will take the global economy into uncharted terrain.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Asia, and South Korea
303. Income Distribution: Effects on Growth and Development
- Author:
- Nancy Birdsall
- Publication Date:
- 04-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- I review the literature on the effects of inequality on growth and development in the developing world. Two stylized facts emerge from empirical studies: inequality is more likely to harm growth in countries at low levels of income (below about $3200 per capita in 2000 dollars); and it is at high levels of inequality (at or above a Gini coefficient of .45) that a negative association emerges. Between 15 and 40 percent of the developing world's population lives in countries with these characteristics, depending on the inclusion of China, whose level of inequality has recently been measured at almost .45. Theory and evidence suggest that high inequality affects growth: (1) through interaction with incomplete and underdeveloped markets for capital and information; (2) by discouraging the evolution of the economic and political institutions associated with accountable government (which in turn enable a market environment conducive to investment and growth); and (3) by undermining the civic and social life that sustains effective collective decision-making.
- Topic:
- Development, Humanitarian Aid, Political Economy, and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- China
304. Investing in China's Rural Infrastructure and Environment
- Author:
- Scott Rozelle
- Publication Date:
- 04-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- The purpose of this executive summary is to provide a concise statement about what we have learned about investment into China's rural environment. The overall purpose is to help the Bank understand what is happening in rural China, what farmer's are thinking about the current trends and what they are hoping will happen in the future (if they had a say). One of the most important questions is answer what should the role of the state be.
- Topic:
- Development, Environment, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
305. China's March on the 21st Century
- Author:
- Kurt M. Campbell and Willow Darsie
- Publication Date:
- 05-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Aspen Institute
- Abstract:
- After a protracted period of uncertainty concerning the nature of the foreign policy challenges that are likely to confront the nation over the course of first half of the 21st century, twin challenges are now coming into sharper relief. For the next generation or more, Americans will be confronted by two overriding (and possibly overwhelming) challenges in the conduct of American foreign policy: how to more effectively wage a long, twilight struggle against violent Islamic fundamentalists, and at the same time cope with the almost certain rise to great power status of China.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Development, Economics, and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, America, and Asia
306. Reform of the International Monetary Fund
- Author:
- Peter B. Kenen
- Publication Date:
- 05-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is undertaking a wide-ranging reform of its governance and operations within a framework proposed by Rodrigo de Rato, its managing director. The proposed reform is inspired in large part by the emergence of large middle-income developing countries such as China and India, which now play a major role in the world economy but are underrepresented in the Fund as the low-income developing countries. The proposed reform is also inspired by the need to simplify the Fund's internal practices and focus more intensively on its basic mandate: to “oversee the development of the international monetary system in order to ensure its effective operation.”
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China and India
307. Regional Monetary Arrangements in ASEAN+3 as Insurance through Reserve Accumulation and Swaps
- Author:
- O.G. Dayaratna-Banda and John Whalley
- Publication Date:
- 04-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- East Asia is witnessing the emergence of an informal monetary system which focuses on self-insurance through own reserve accumulation and co-insurance through swaps. The former is concentrated in a small number of large countries (China, Japan, and Korea), while the latter involves informal monetary cooperation among monetary authorities in a large number of countries. The origins of this system lie in the Asian financial crises, and reflect concerns both to avoid repetition of similar events and any spread of further crises through contagion effects. This paper first characterizes and documents this emerging system describing how it works and what its objectives are, and then discusses its performance, its incompleteness, and assesses the system's ability to move towards deeper integration without adopting a single monetary authority as well as the impediments it faces. What is clear is that this type of system among individual countries is incomplete and falls well short of complete monetary integration, but at present it performs well even if it experiences a number of deficiencies. Most countries seem better off with partial reserve pooling, while incremental gains from higher degrees of pooling in the region tend to be small.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Asia, and Korea
308. EU Commercial Policy in a Multipolar Trading System
- Author:
- Simon Evenett
- Publication Date:
- 04-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- In recent years, the bipolar multilateral trading system of the post-war years has given way to a multipolar alternative. Although many specifics have yet to be determined, some contours of this new trade policy landscape are coming into focus and in this short paper I examine their implications for the European Union's external commercial policy. Particular attention is given to both the state of business-government relations and the propensity to liberalise under the auspices of reciprocal trade agreements by Brazil, India, and China; the potential new poles of the world trading system. I consider the likely consequences of these developments, plus factors internal to both the European Union and the United States, for the possible con-tent of future multilateral trade initiatives.
- Topic:
- Development, Government, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Europe, India, and Brazil
309. Technology Upgrading and China's Growth Strategy to 2020
- Author:
- John Whalley and Weimin Zhou
- Publication Date:
- 03-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- It is widely believed in China that in order to meet the target of tripling gross domestic product (GDP) per capita between 2005 and 2020, as set out in China's 11th five-year plan in 2005, a change in China's growth strategy from FDI promotion and export-led growth towards technology upgrading and higher productivity growth in manufacturing needs to occur. This paper seeks to evaluate the potential effectiveness of recent government initiatives to be taken to achieve these ends. In particular, plans these include increased educational spending, tax incentives, large research and development (R) projects, and changes to the regulatory environment. In measuring China's economic growth potential towards 2020, this paper employs an economic analysis of Total Factor Productivity and identifies the importance of continued domestic technical innovation.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
310. Consequences of an Emerging China: Is Development Space Disappearing for Latin America and the Caribbean?
- Author:
- Nicola Phillips
- Publication Date:
- 01-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- The economic rise of China has caused a redrawing of global production and value chains, a restructuring of the global division of labour, and a restructuring of patterns of global demand and of the terms of trade. This paper examines the nature of the emerging economic relationship between Latin America and the Caribbean and China, and seeks to offer some reflections on the significance of this relationship for Latin American and Caribbean development. It begins with an overview of trade and investment relationships between Latin American countries and China, and examines the significance of the emergence of China for the region's development strategies and developmental prospects in greater detail. This paper reflects on the early impact of these emerging arrangements on the existing economic relationship between Latin America and the United States, and seeks in some ways to challenge understandings of this sort based on national economies and instead argues for a focus on global production and value chains, as well the new transnational division of labour.
- Topic:
- Development
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, America, Asia, Latin America, Central America, and Caribbean