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541. COVID-19 Implications for China's National Security

Author:
Marta Gębska
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic began in March 2020 and China has since been under public scrutiny for neglecting the first signs of this global health challenge and for its lockdown strategy. Although lockdowns have not lasted for long, China needs to confront the political, social, and economic implications for its national security. The paper aims to fill a gap in the knowledge and investigate aspects of China’s national security in light of the pandemic. The study is based on desk research using secondary data and statistical and comparative analysis. It also employs an inductive method to build general theorems. The Chinese government can be seen as successful in dealing with the pandemic because of a low death toll and minimal economic losses. By early February 2022, only 106,863 Chinese had been diagnosed, and 4,636 had died from the virus. China also achieved enviable economic success and, its output grew by 18.3% year on year in the first quarter of 2021, the fastest rate since the 1990s, and it was the first major economy to withdraw its pandemic stimulus. China consolidated its position in low-income countries and improved its image as a global leader in trade by supplying vaccines, masks and ventilators, and strengthened its geopolitical standing. It will face threats from other countries working on a joint approach to the challenges posed by Beijing and while the aftereffects of the crisis can be seen, it also fears that they might further affect China's national security.
Topic:
National Security, International Security, Economy, COVID-19, and Economic Security
Political Geography:
China and Asia

542. Ukraine War Distracts US from China, Legitimizes Nuclear Bombs

Author:
Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is distracting the US from the Chinese threat and erodes the nuclear taboo.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Conflict, Rivalry, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Ukraine, Asia, North America, and United States of America

543. Early Warning in the Taiwan Strait

Author:
Mark Stokes and Eric Lee
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
Shows of force from China’s People’s Liberation Army exist on a continuum from peace to war and can be characterized as coercive or annihilative. In this report, Executive Director Mark Stokes and Associate Director of Programs Eric Lee examine kinetic and non-kinetic threats posed to Taiwan by the People’s Liberation Army. The authors explore the history of Taiwan’s early warning infrastructure and radar order of battle. They then assess how these capabilities support Taiwan’s air sovereignty missions of surveillance and control around its territories. They conclude by suggesting ways the United States can bolster Taiwan’s early warning capabilities.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Sovereignty, Surveillance, and Army
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

544. Biden and Trade at Year One: The Reign of Polite Protectionism

Author:
James Bacchus
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
As a presidential candidate, Joe Biden promised a change from the go‐​it‐​alone, my‐​way‐​or‐​the‐​highway approach to trade policy of Donald Trump. Disappointingly, during the first year of his presidency, Biden has instead largely embraced the failed Trump policy of unilateralism and protectionism in trade. He and his administration have done so politely, without Trump’s bluster and bombast. Yet, the results have been mostly the same: a turn toward more trade protection and managed trade, toward a proposed industrial policy that would add more restrictions on trade, and toward a destructive unilateralism that threatens to continue undermining the multilateral trading system overseen by the World Trade Organization. If Biden continues to pursue this misguided trade policy, American recovery and prosperity are at risk. There is still time—at least three years—for him to end this reign of polite protectionism by framing and pursuing a new trade policy that will benefit all Americans: a policy that will achieve more trade liberalization, stop managed trade, halt trade‐​restrictive industrial policy, renew trade multilateralism, and give restored and unflinching support to the international rule of law in trade.
Topic:
Tariffs, Trade, Donald Trump, Protectionism, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

545. Policy Experimentation in China: The Political Economy of Policy Learning

Author:
Shaoda Wang and David Y. Yang
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Determining what policies to implement and how to implement them is an essential government task. Policy learning is challenging, as policy effectiveness often hinges on the nature of the policy, its implementation, the degree that it is tailored to local conditions, and the efforts and incentives of local politicians to make the policy work.
Topic:
Political Economy, Politics, Policy Implementation, and Economic Policy
Political Geography:
China and Asia

546. Turning point? Putin, Xi, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine

Author:
Bobo Lo
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Putin’s war in Ukraine has highlighted the resilience but also the limitations of Sino–Russian partnership. Far from being an “arc of autocracy”, this is an interests-based relationship between strategically autonomous powers. Foreign policy coordination between China and Russia is limited by their different views of global order. Beijing is invested in a stable international system, albeit one skewed in its favour, whereas Moscow thrives on disorder and uncertainty. Xi Jinping aims to preserve the Sino–Russian partnership while maintaining ties with the West. But Beijing’s balancing act will become harder to sustain as the war continues. The balance of power within the bilateral relationship has tilted sharply towards Beijing. Russia is more reliant on China than ever. The long-term outlook for the relationship is unpromising.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, Conflict, and Vladimir Putin
Political Geography:
Russia, China, and Ukraine

547. Revising down the rise of China

Author:
Roland Rajah and Alyssa Leng
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
China will likely experience a substantial long-term growth slowdown owing to demographic decline, the limits of capital-intensive growth, and a gradual deceleration in productivity growth. Even with continued broad policy success, our baseline projections suggest annual economic growth will slow to about 3% by 2030 and 2% by 2040, while averaging 2–3% overall from now until 2050. China would still become the world’s largest economy, but it would never enjoy a meaningful lead over the US and would remain far less prosperous and productive per person even by mid-century.
Topic:
Demographics, Economy, Economic Growth, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and United States of America

548. Off Track – The role of China’s CRRC in the Global Railcar Market

Author:
Oxford Economics
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
With $35 billion in total revenue in 2021, CRRC, the Chinese state-owned railroad rolling stock manufacturer, is the largest player in the $71 billion global railroad rolling stock industry. Like other Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs), CRRC is the beneficiary of both implicit and explicit government subsidies. According to its annual reports, CRRC received $271 million in explicit Chinese government subsidies in 2020, and nearly $1.3 billion total between 2015 and 2020. Implicit government subsidies to SOEs like CRRC are harder to quantify and come in a variety of forms. For example, an SOE may obtain production inputs, such as financing or land, at below market-rate prices. It may also sell its outputs at above market-rate prices, a possibility that is particularly relevant to rail manufacturing, where much of the output is sold to government entities. Estimates by other researchers show that explicit government subsidies represent only about a quarter of the total government subsidies that Chinese SOEs receive. Since the 1990s, China has pursued a policy towards SOEs of “grasping the large, letting go of the small,” investing in national champions to dominate their respective industries. Under the management of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) since 2003, SOEs have been encouraged to “go big and go global” through domestic consolidation and expansion, as well as through foreign mergers and acquisitions. The effect of these policies, which are fundamentally mercantilist in nature, has been for these national champion SOEs like CRRC to capture their domestic markets, using the economic rents so generated to finance global expansion. Between 2006 and 2018, SOEs’ share of the assets of the largest global firms has increased from approximately 6% to 20%, with Chinese SOEs accounting for essentially all of this increase. While SASAC has targeted specific industries for its national champion, the overall trend in recent years has been towards continued government divestment from legacy SOEs. SOEs’ share of national industrial employment fell from 60% in 1998 to 38% in 2003 to 20% in 2010. Thus, as reflected in planning documents, the selection of industries for the fostering of national champions is anything but random and reflects the strategic interests of the Chinese government. In the case of rail, the government’s strategic interest is transparent and is laid out in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)—China seeks to dominate an integrated global rail transportation network based on Chinese technical standards. China expects to obtain significant financial and geopolitical benefits from this outcome and may be willing to absorb losses on individual foreign rail projects in order to break into foreign markets.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Hegemony, Railways, and Air Travel
Political Geography:
China and Asia

549. The Geopolitics of Human Trafficking and Gendered North Korean Migration

Author:
Eunyoung Christina Choi
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
According to the “White Paper on Human Rights in North Korea 2021,” human-trafficking targeted at North Korean defectors in China remains a grave issue ? not only are North Korean women sold without their consent, but they are also forced to prostitution at entertainment establishments. In this commentary, Eunyoung Christina Choi, Senior Fellow at the Institute for Peace and Unification Studies (IPUS) at Seoul National University, looks into the dire circumstances North Korean women defectors find themselves in during their pursuit to defect. She explains that the international community’s interest in and measures against the human-trafficking of North Korean female defectors have been dominated by geopolitical interests and have in turn exacerbated women’s prospects to safely defect.
Topic:
Women, Borders, and Human Trafficking
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and North Korea

550. Beyond Geopolitics: A Geoeconomic Perspective of China-Iran Belt and Road Initiative Relations

Author:
Seyedashkan Madani
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is the largest regional development project in the history of global development. It is estimated that Chinese companies will invest up to $1.2 trillion in infrastructure development in Asia and elsewhere in the coming years. However, there are many obstacles to the successful implementation of this initiative in the host countries, including geographical factors, local culture, geopolitical contestation, public attitudes, institutional capacity, and governance quality. These challenges can substantially diminish the coherence of the BRI and prevent its effective implementation. This study aims to develop an analytical framework for exploring the risks associated with and challenges of executing BRI projects in Iran. To this end, all risks are categorized into three broad groups: operational, financial, and geopolitical. The results show that Iran generally faces many internal and external challenges in attracting foreign investment. The critical question is: Why is Iran receiving substantial investment from Chinese companies despite its unfavorable business environment? A geoeconomic approach is used to develop a theoretical framework to explain Iran-China BRI relations. In this context, Iran’s geoeconomic significance is the main factor encouraging the flow of Chinese investment into the country. The BRI comprises mostly functional cooperation between China and countries along the Silk Road based on a specific geospatial environment. Iran’s geospatial environment encourages Chinese investments in infrastructure, which is the main content of functional cooperation.
Topic:
Development, International Trade and Finance, Infrastructure, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:
China and Asia