Political Geography: China / Publication Year: within 25 Years

2601. After the TPP: What’s Next for Canada in Asia?

Author:: Hugh Stephens
Publication Date:: 04-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:: The Trump administration’s arrival has scrambled the cards in the trade policy world. Not only will the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) be reopened with uncertain results, but President Donald Trump has scuttled the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) by announcing the United States’ withdrawal from the agreement. Canada, originally cool toward the TPP, pushed hard to be included in it. The TPP became the centrepiece of Canada’s Asia trade strategy, notwithstanding some public ambivalence on the part of the Trudeau government. With the TPP in its present form now in limbo, Canada still has options in Asia. First, it can keep an open mind with regard to the possible reconstitution of the TPP in another form, such as “TPP Minus One” (i.e., minus the U.S.). It should also push to reopen the bilateral negotiations with Japan that were suspended when that country joined the TPP negotiations. Canada is already exploring the possibility of an economic partnership agreement with China, perhaps on a sectoral basis, and simultaneously, it should actively pursue negotiation of a free trade agreement with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) community. This could in time provide Canada access to the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP) currently being negotiated among 16 countries in the Asia-Pacific region and would position Canada well in the eventuality that a Free Trade Area of Asia-Pacific (FTAAP) emerges. In the meantime, uncertainty regarding NAFTA’s future needs to be addressed. This uncertainty makes it more difficult for Canada to attract Asian investment but it also provides further impetus for Canada to diversify its trading relationships and to explore stronger relationships with Asian economies.
Topic:: International Affairs, NAFTA, Trans-Pacific Partnership, and Trade
Political Geography:: China, Canada, Asia, United States of America, and North America

2602. A World Larger Than Trump’s: China’s

Author:: Ferry de Kerckhove
Publication Date:: 11-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:: While China's climb towards global, superpower status has now been underway for decades and is accelerating rapidly, that ascent is being helped enormously by the crisis of American leadership exemplified by Trump. This should be a major concern for the Unites States and the rest of the world. Through his “concession speech” at the United Nations on September 19, Trump has allowed a rekindling of the concept of spheres of influence. In Asia, China represents a model many hope to emulate to bring their people out of poverty. With it, for governments, comes the attraction of power unfettered by the shenanigans of democracy. In Europe, the U.S. foreign policy dearth has had allies looking for a new paradigm, order, stability and a minimum of predictability. China has taken over the number one rank as a donor or investing country in Africa and expects to invest half a trillion dollars in Latin America. The U.S. continues to exercise considerable influence over events, lead the fight against terrorism, brokers negotiations between foes, dominates a large chunk of the world economy, leads on innovations, and is the world’s preeminent military power. But under Trump, beneath all these evidences, confidence in the U.S. has been broken and uncertainty prevails.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Power Politics, Geopolitics, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

2603. Getting the U.S.-China Relationship Right

Author:: Cory Gardner
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:: The Project 2049 Institute is pleased to announce the publication of our Futuregram, “Getting the U.S.-China Relationship Right.” Senator Cory Gardner [R-CO], Chairman of the Subcommittee on East Asia, the Pacific, and International Cybersecurity Policy, assesses the need for a long-term strategy in regards to the U.S.-China relationship. In addition, he details new legislation called the Asia Reassurance Initiative Act (ARIA), an approach that will put American interests first by reassuring our allies, deterring our adversaries, and securing U.S. leadership in the region for future generations.
Topic:: International Organization and International Affairs
Political Geography:: China

2604. Taiwan, Submarines, and Competitive Strategies for U.S.-China Competition

Author:: Henry Holst
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:: Taiwan’s Indigenous Defense Submarine (IDS) program has spurred a small but fierce debate over the merits of Taiwan’s submarine aspirations. This study argues that the discussion surrounding Taiwan’s IDS program fails to consider the potential long-run strategic benefits for the United States. Taiwan’s IDS program could spur greater PLA budgetary allocation in an area of favorable U.S.-China technological asymmetry: anti-submarine warfare (ASW). Given the high probability of greater PLA investment in high-end war fighting capabilities, larger PLA spending on ASW is comparatively less threatening to U.S. regional interests than other capabilities within high-technology confines. This study concludes by recommending a reevaluation of the long-run strategic merits of assisting Taiwan’s pursuit of a submarine program.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: China

2605. A Chinese Perspective on the Impact of Sanctions

Author:: Cheng Xiaohe
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: Since the Korean War, North Korea (the DPRK) has endured sanctions imposed by the United States and other western countries, but the sanctions began to acquire a dramatic impact only in 2006 when North Korean ballistic missile blasts invited a punitive reaction from the UN Security Council. In addition to sanctions imposed by individual countries, for the first time, international organizations, notably the Security Council, passed punitive resolutions in an effort to rein in North Korea’s missile and nuclear development. In order to supervise implementation of the sanctions, the Security Council set up a committee established pursuant to resolution 1718 in 2006 (the sanctions committee), which now comprises all 15 members and makes its decisions by consensus. To North Korea’s dismay, as it continues to fight against western countries’ economic sanctions and military embargo, it now has to bear the brunt of sanctions from its traditional allies, China and Russia. Even so, it has been defying international pressure and pressing ahead with its missile and nuclear weapons programs. Despite tougher sanctions, North Korea is poised to possess missiles with nuclear warheads that could hit South Korea, Japan, and the United States. This paper explores the effectiveness of the sanctions, asking whether the North’s steady progress on nuclear and missile weapons demonstrates their failure.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Sanctions, and Economy
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North Korea, and United States of America

2606. The Impact of Chinese National Identity on Sino-U.S. Relations

Author:: Guo Yingjie
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: The Chinese Party-state’s warnings about the danger of Western ideas appear with increasing frequency. Whether the target is “constitutional democracy,” the “rule of law,” “universal values,” “judicial independence,” or “color revolutions,” the refrain is becoming familiar. These are “erroneous” notions in the public discourse of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), which not only threaten CCP rule, their advocacy by Chinese is evidence of traitorous conduct, and their support by U.S. officials or on the Western-led internet must be resisted for bilateral relations to proceed successfully. Such admonishments are consistent with the CCP’s official ideology and reflect the national identity currently espoused by CCP leaders and propagated in the increasingly tightly controlled media and academia. They have had a negative impact on the Sino-U.S. relationship, and are likely to continue to do so even as President Donald Trump remains largely silent on China’s human rights record and concentrates on “America First” economically and on tough talk about pressuring China regarding issues such as Taiwan, the South China Sea, and North Korea.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Politics, Bilateral Relations, Ideology, and Identity
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and United States of America

2607. The Impact of Chinese National Identity on Sino-Russian Relations

Author:: Gilbert Rozman
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: When we think of national identity as a factor in China’s external relations, we normally focus on Japan or, for those bolder in their thinking, the United States. Few recently have put China’s policies toward Russia in that context. After all, the Chinese and Russians are adamant that their relationship eschews ideology or any other sign of national identity in favor of pure realpolitik. This paper takes exception to that interpretation, arguing that it would be difficult to understand the Sino-Russian relationship without paying close heed to the identity factor, not just from the Russian side, but seen in China’s views of Russia. Moreover, in the mid-2010s this factor has intensified, now favoring a closer relationship.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Ideology, and Identity
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Eurasia, and Asia

2608. The Impact of Chinese National Identity on Sino-ASEAN Relations

Author:: Danielle Cohen
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: China and ASEAN possess tremendous opportunities for economic cooperation, but also face significant security challenges, particularly regarding the South China Sea. In both domains, China’s national identity has greatly influenced the trajectory of the bilateral relationship. China’s ASEAN policy is characterized by a desire to recreate the Sinocentric structures of the tributary system, a belief in the historical legitimacy of China’s maritime and territorial claims, a vision of China as a global economic powerhouse, and a sense that China has already “peacefully risen” and can more actively assert itself to reap the rewards.
Topic:: Trade, Economic Cooperation, ASEAN, and Identity
Political Geography:: China and Asia

2609. The Impact of Chinese National Identity on Sino-South Korean Relations

Author:: See-Won Byun
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: How do Chinese national identity narratives affect Sino-South Korean relations? The Koguryo history war more than a decade ago was a turning point in bilateral relations since diplomatic normalization in 1992, generating enduring competition over representations of history.1 In 2010, China’s commemoration of its entry into the Korean War raised early warnings in South Korea over Beijing’s hostile foreign policy orientation under Xi Jinping. Contrary to such expectations, however, the earliest summit agreements between presidents Xi Jinping and Park Geun-hye after both took office in 2013 were on history cooperation as common victims of Japanese colonialism. Most notably in 2015, Park’s participation in Beijing’s 70th anniversary celebrations of the end of World War II consolidated joint claims of what was called the best period in bilateral relations.2 This chapter assesses the impact of Chinese national identity on China-Republic of Korea (ROK) relations under the Xi and Park administrations since 2013. It examines Chinese constructions of national identity and their implications for the security, economic, and cultural dimensions of the Sino-South Korean relationship. Rather than promoting partnership, competing identities across these dimensions reinforce enduring differences over the region’s political, economic, and cultural order. These differences surfaced most saliently in 2016, following an initial period of engagement that corresponds with the downward trend in China-Japan relations since 2012. Managing them requires the very trust-building that both Beijing and Seoul have prioritized since 2013.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Identity
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and North Korea

2610. The Impact of Chinese National Identity on Sino-Japanese Relations

Author:: Yinan He
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: Sino-Japanese relations have been in another volatility cycle since the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands disputes flared up again in summer 2012. The downward trend seems to have bottomed out in November 2014 when the two leaders Xi Jinping and Abe Shinzo finally held their first meeting since entering office. However, the anticipated recovery has proved tenuous; the momentum toward further improvement has halted since early 2016 when confrontation escalated in both the South China Sea and East China Sea. While acknowledging the role of realist power shift and geostrategic rivalry in causing Sino-Japanese tension, this paper argues that a widening gap between their national identities is also highly relevant. The current Xi government has promoted a national reinvigoration campaign emphasizing Chinese history and culture, the socialist model, and defense of core interests, which runs counter to that of Abe’s Japan, a democratic and historically revisionist country. This national identity conflict has exacerbated mutual distrust, denied chances of reassurance, and generated domestic popular objections to diplomatic compromise between the two countries.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Identity
Political Geography:: Japan, China, and Asia

2611. Intro | The Impact of Chinese National Identity on Bilateral Relations

Author:: Gilbert Rozman
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: The construct “Chinese national identity” refers to narratives from China’s leadership, media, and academic spokespersons about what makes their country distinctive and how those ideas matter in relations with other nations. This is a relational concept that serves to distinguish the “self” and “other,” whose interpretation is shaped by interactions with other states. Seen from the vertical dimension of identity, these interactions are filtered through rhetoric aimed at promoting unity at home. Demonizing other nations while conveying an image of enemies or states seeking to contain China is a means to boost solidarity behind Communist Party control over a society with little means to dissent. The horizontal dimension of identity depicts bilateral relations as the result not of different national interests, but of clashing and often irreconcilable identities. Examining the way national identity on the Chinese side impacts five external relationships is the objective of this set of articles, which concentrate on Chinese rhetoric during the period of Xi Jinping.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Identity
Political Geography:: China and Asia

2612. A View from the United States on Sino-U.S. Relations

Author:: Joel Wuthnow
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: During the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign, the candidates reached a bipartisan consensus on one issue: how to deal with North Korea. Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump both called for China to do more to convince Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear program once and for all. Candidate Trump said that China has “absolute control” over North Korea and promised to do whatever it takes to convince Beijing to use that leverage, including imposing penalties on Chinese firms. As president, however, Trump will have to navigate the reality of China’s extreme hesitance to use the only type of pressure likely to divert North Korea’s nuclear ambitions—the threat of regime-endangering punishment. If and how China should continue to fit into U.S. strategy for dealing with North Korea will thus be a key issue facing Trump and his advisors.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Bilateral Relations, Elections, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

2613. A View from South Korea on Sino-ROK Relations

Author:: Kim Heung-kyu
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: Although we are only into the first months of the Trump administration, many Koreans recognize that the U.S.-led, market-oriented, liberal international order has been severely shaken. In the background, the rapid rise of China and rather successful economic reforms under Xi Jinping have dramatically reduced its vulnerability and sensitivity to the United States. As one power’s grip is shaken and another’s is energized, two different orders are emerging in East Asia. We accordingly witness a “Clash of Titans,” the fallout from which could be fatal to the security and economy of the Republic of Korea.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Economy, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and South Korea

2614. Intro | Establishing Triangular Talks Among Washington, Beijing, and Seoul

Author:: Gilbert Rozman
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: Of five alternative approaches to addressing the North Korean threat to stability in East Asia and beyond, this section is concerned with the possibility of just one—a diplomatic approach via Three-Way Talks among China, South Korea, and the United States. We single out this approach as the golden mean for reconciling the conflicting interests among the parties best positioned to reshape the calculus of Pyongyang. It represents the path to compromise. Among the alternatives, there is the Chinese appeal for a dual-track approach through Six-Party Talks, aimed at a peace treaty on terms attractive to North Korea and greatly transformative to the security architecture in Northeast Asia. This could hardly be called a compromise, since Seoul and Washington regard this as a win for Pyongyang and evidence that Beijing actually has been siding with Pyongyang. Another alternative is Strategic Patience, which is a misnomer for the policy of the Obama administration, but, in any case, refers mainly to reliance on increased deterrence as pressure is ratcheted up. In fact, Obama was seeking a pathway to three-way talks, giving China time to shift in that direction bolstered by new sanctions, while in 2016 also moving closer to a fourth approach: Unilateral Sanctions targeted at the Chinese firms assisting North Korea. A fifth option is Alliance Triangularity to force change in Pyongyang.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Sanctions, Instability, and Regional Security
Political Geography:: China, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

2615. China’s Future SSBN Command and Control Structure

Author:: David C. Logan
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: China is developing its first credible sea-based nuclear forces. This emergent nuclear ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) force will pose unique challenges to a country that has favored tightly centralized control over its nuclear deterrent. The choices China makes about SSBN command and control will have important implications for strategic stability. Despite claims that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Rocket Force will be responsible for all Chinese nuclear forces, Chinese SSBNs currently appear to be under the control of the PLA Navy. However, China may choose to revise its command and control structures as its SSBNs begin armed deterrent patrols. There are three broad command and control models, allocating varying degrees of authority to the PLA Navy or the Rocket Force. China’s decisions about SSBN command and control will be mediated by operational, bureaucratic, and political considerations. A hybrid approach to command and control, with authority divided between the navy and the Rocket Force, would be most conducive to supporting strategic stability.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: China

2616. China's Goldwater-Nichols? Assessing PLA Organizational Reforms

Author:: Philip C. Saunders and Joel Wuthnow
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is undertaking its most significant restructuring since 1949, including changes to all of the PLA’s main organizational pillars—the Central Military Commission, services, and theaters. The reforms are modeled partly on the U.S. military structure, where combatant commanders lead operations and the services train and equip troops. However, the PLA remains a Leninist military responsible for defending Chinese Communist Party (CCP) rule. The reforms aim to tighten CCP supervision over a force seen as corrupt and unaccountable and to enhance the PLA’s ability to conduct joint operations across multiple domains. Theater commanders will be able to develop force packages drawn from all the services, and a new Strategic Support Force will provide C4ISR support. The reforms will create a short term organizational disruption, but may enable more effective joint war fighting over the long term. The PLA will have to overcome significant obstacles such as continued ground force dominance and inter-service rivalry to make the reforms succeed.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: China

2617. Posing Problems without an Alliance: China-Iran Relations after the Nuclear Deal

Author:: Joel Wuthnow
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: China is poised to increase economic and diplomatic cooperation with Iran as a result of sanctions relief under the recent Iran nuclear deal, though a close geopolitical alignment between the two states is unlikely. Sino-Iranian relations will remain limited by several enduring constraints, including China’s desire for positive ties with other states, its pursuit of energy diversification, and its need for regional stability. Renewed Chinese arms sales to Iran could constitute an emerging challenge for the United States. This could increase Iran’s antiaccess/ area-denial threat to U.S. military forces and create proliferation risks. U.S. officials should press Chinese interlocutors to avoid exporting advanced weapons, which could embolden Iran to conduct a more brazen foreign policy that would threaten China’s fundamental need for regional stability
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: China and Iran

2618. A primary exploration on cyber security governance in Africa

Author:: XIAO Yingying and YUAN Zhengqing
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: The internet history in Africa is short, but this new technology is spreading fast on the continent. Along with this, cybercrime in Africa is becoming increasingly rampant, while the relevant legal institutions and law enforcement capacity are lagging behind, with public and private cyber security awareness being relatively weak. In recent years, African countries start accelerating the design of institutional framework concerning cyber security governance. Besides e-transaction and cybercrime, personal data protection is also part of Africa’s cyber security governance, which is the result of the “impartment“ from Western developed countries and the active advocacy from NGOs. Whether at the national level, sub-regional organization level, the African Union level or NGO level, those Western developed countries and western-dominated international organizations have played a role in the institutional design of African cyber security governance, some of which referred to or even copied the original designs of the Western countries. This may lead to the African continent being “recolonized” in cyberspace, with no autonomous decision-making power in global cyber security governance. Besides, from design to implementation, African countries still have a long way to go, and whether the institutions based on the western experience are suitable for the culture and ideas of the African countries, remains to be tested with practice.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Africa and China

2619. 9th U.S.-China High-Level Political Party Leaders Dialogue

Author:: Natalie Pretzer-Lin
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: EastWest Institute
Abstract:: A delegation of senior officials from the Communist Party of China (CPC) met with U.S. Democratic and Republican Party leaders and global business leaders in Washington, D.C., on November 14, 2016. These discussions were part of the U.S.-China High-Level Political Party Leaders Dialogue organized by the EastWest Institute (EWI) in partnership with the International Department of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (IDCPC) and was the ninth round of this dialogue process.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: China and America

2620. China politics: Charity ends at home

Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:: China

2621. China/Hong Kong/Taiwan politics: Rocking boats, shaking mountains

Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong

2622. USA/China politics: Quick View - Chinese jets intercept US military plane

Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:: United States and China

2623. USA/China politics: Quick View - US and China hold another unproductive str

Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:: United States and China

2624. Hong Kong/China politics: In Beijing's bad books

Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:: China and Hong Kong

2625. Russia/China politics: Quick View - Putin seeks to put flesh on the bones o

Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:: Russia and China

2626. China politics: Who draws the party line?

Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:: China

2627. China politics: China not immune to shocks emanating from Brexit

Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:: China

2628. Asia politics: Quick View - US warns China over maritime military build-up

Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:: China, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Philippines

2629. USA/China politics: Dialogue of the deaf

Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:: United States and China

2630. The Asian Development Bank and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank: Conditional Collaboration?

Author:: Robert M. Orr
Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council of American Ambassadors
Abstract:: In the past two years, the creation of the Chinese-sponsored Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) has caused considerable attention in many capitals, particularly in Washington and Tokyo. Some view the establishment of the AIIB as a challenge to the supremacy of the post-World War II Bretton Woods order. Others see it as another symbol of shifting regional power in Asia. Some have deep concerns about the AIIB’s willingness to adhere to international safeguards and open procurement.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, China, and Asia-Pacific

2631. China’s Global Rise Can the EU and U.S. Pursue a Coordinated Strategy?

Author:: Philippe Le Corre and Jonathan Pollack
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Brookings Institution
Abstract:: China’s emergence as a global economic power and its fuller integration in the international order are among the principal policy challenges facing Europe and the United States in the early 21st century. At the time of Beijing’s entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, China (though already growing rapidly) was in global terms an economic actor of limited consequence. A decade and a half later, China’s transformation is without parallel in economic history. Over the past 15 years, China has experienced an eightfold increase in GDP, enabling it to serve as the pri- mary engine of global economic growth in the early 21st century. It has leapfrogged from sixth to second place among the world’s economies, trail- ing only the United States in absolute economic size. In addition, China has become the world’s leading trading state and is now the second largest source of outward foreign direct investment. Change of this magnitude has enhanced China’s political power and eco- nomic leverage. It has also stimulated China’s internal economic evolution, simultaneously expanding the power of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) while also contributing to major growth in the private sector. China has also begun to think bigger, devoting increased attention to the rules of global economic governance. Although Beijing insists it has no intention of supplanting the existing international order, China contends that chang- ing power realities will require modification of global rules.
Topic:: International Cooperation, International Political Economy, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: China, America, and Europe

2632. A Glass Half Full The Rebalance, Reassurance, and Resolve in the U.S.-China Strategic Relationship

Author:: Michael O'Hanlon
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: What is the state of the U.S.-China security relationship as President Obama’s term in office concludes? Given the centrality of this rela- tionship to the future of the region and indeed the planet, as well as the emphasis that President Obama has appropriately placed upon it, the question bears asking at this milestone in history.
Topic:: International Political Economy and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: China and America

2633. A Framework for U.S. Policy toward China

Author:: Jeffrey Bader
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Brookings Institution
Abstract:: Serious people understand that the manner in which the United States deals with China will be a critical, if not the critical, overseas chal- lenge for the United States in the 21st century. China will likely be the largest economy in the world within one or two decades; the second or third strongest military soon, if not already; and competitive with the United States and Europe in global economic, and perhaps political and cultural, influence in some regions. China is ruled by a Communist Par- ty resistant to political liberalization at home and wedded to nationalist rhetoric and behavior in dealing with its neighborhood, enhancing the chances for rivalry with the United States. For those students of history who see conflict as the likely outcome when ris- ing powers encounter dominant powers, these are precursors of a dark future. How should we deal with China? What policy framework best optimizes our interests, which are multiple and not always consistent with each oth- er? Americans are in the midst of an ongoing presidential campaign that, in a better world, would be asking and answering such questions, but this is not such a campaign.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:: China and America

2634. Security Concerns about Chinese Investments: Nuclear Power and Telecommunications

Author:: Yang Jiang, Aki Tonami, and Adam Moe Fejerskov
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: China actively seeks to expand its overseas investment in critical infrastructure. This involvement makes host countries uneasy especially in the West, even though financial benefits sometimes override broader national interests and security issues. China’s attempts to invest in overseas critical infra- structure, defined as infrastructure closely related to sovereignty and national security, has become a sensitive issue to host country governments parti- cularly in the West. They fear that Chinese investment in nuclear and telecommunications infrastructures entails consequences for nuclear security and safety and information security respectively. This policy brief provides an overview of how various countries have received Chinese interest in nuclear power and telecommunications.
Topic:: International Political Economy, International Security, Nuclear Power, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: China and Global Focus

2635. THE SOUTH CHINA SEA A Breeding Ground for Geopolitical Rivalry

Author:: Bøje Forsby
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: As an important commercial gateway and a rich source of natural resources, the South China Sea holds great economic and strategic significance. This is manifested not only in the conflicting territorial and maritime claims of the coastal states, but also in the simmering geopolitical rivalry between an increasingly self-assertive China and a United States bent on `rebalancing´ China’s growing power in the region. This new DIIS report by Andreas Bøje Forsby examines recent development trends in the South China Sea, focusing primarily on three key areas: China’s growing assertiveness in the South China Sea, the rebalancing efforts of the United States in the region and the recently-concluded arbitration case between the Philippines and China concerning their maritime dispute in the South China Sea.
Topic:: Geopolitics
Political Geography:: China

2636. EU trade diplomacy and the cold peace in cross-Strait relations

Author:: Maaike Okano-Heijmans
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: Today’s uncertainty in cross-Strait relations is not without consequence for third parties that maintain ties with both China and Taiwan. To what extent does (and should) the situation also impact on EU’s trade diplomacy with both sides? This policy brief argues that under today’s circumstances, the cold peace in cross-Strait relations is reason to tread carefully — and to stay on course. The May 2016 inauguration of the Taiwanese government led by Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) leader Tsai Ing-wen placed a big question mark over the future of cross-Strait relations. Within weeks, Beijing had unilaterally imposed a freeze on (semi-)official talks until the new Taiwanese President acknowledges the so-called 1992 Consensus. While confirming its ‘one China’ policy, the EU may contribute to the stability of cross-Strait relations by being a partner in China’s economic reform and by negotiating EU–China and EU–Taiwan investment agreements in parallel. In this policy brief author Maaike Okano-Heijmans builds on discussions during the 13th Symposium on ‘Sino–EU Relations and the Taiwan Question’, which was held in Shanghai from 9–11 October 2016 and in Taipei from 12–14 October 2016. These second-track dialogues were supported by the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, the Shanghai Institute of International Studies and the Taiwanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, and European Union

2637. Major developments in the US and China and US-China Relations Amidst Turmoil in the International Order (US-China Project)

Author:: Japan Institute for International Affairs
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
Abstract:: The rise of emerging countries, above all the precipitous rise of China, is a key driving force behind changes in international relations on a global scope. This does not mean, however, that China is taking over the reins of “hegemony” from the US and building a new international order centered on China and other emerging countries, i.e., that a clear-cut “power transition” is underway.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: China and America

2638. Sub-project II: China’s Domestic Situation and Foreign Policy (China Study Group)

Author:: Japan Institute for International Affairs
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
Abstract:: Among the most significant variables defining trends in the international order and the international environment surrounding Japan are domestic circumstances in China and its foreign policies prescribed by them. China ranks highest among the emerging powers that have rapidly increased their presence within the international community over a short period and is, from Japan’s standpoint, simultaneously a real threat to Japanese security in the East China Sea and Japan’s largest trading partner.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: China

2639. Sub-project III: US-China Relations and International Relations Involving the US and China (US-China Relations Study Group)

Author:: Japan Institute for International Affairs
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
Abstract:: Two of the most important variables influencing trends within the international order are the domestic circumstances within the US and China and the foreign policy shifts stemming therefrom. An element of equal or perhaps even greater significance is the nature of relations between these two major powers.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: China and America

2640. Business and Politics In China's Overseas Investments

Author:: Luke Patey and Michal Meidan
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: The size and sophistication of Chinese foreign investment is on the rise. In 2014, inbound investment to China was outpaced by outbound investment for the first time. Chinese foreign investment has surpassed the $100 billion mark for the past three years, making China the third largest overseas investor. At the same time, beyond oil and gas, which dominated headlines over the past decade, Chinese state-owned enterprises and private corporations are making multi-billion dollar investments in construction, telecommunications, nuclear, and high-tech across the globe. What political and security implications do these new investment have for host government in North America and Europe? What is the view point of Beijing towards the growing reach of its corporations overseas? A new policy brief by Michal Meidan, research associate at Chatham House and Asia Analyst at Energy Aspects, and DIIS senior researcher Luke Patey explores these questions.
Topic:: Globalization, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: China and Global Focus

2641. China, Economic Development, and Global Security: Bridging the Gaps

Author:: Mark Ferchen
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: China’s expanding global economic and geopolitical role has spawned a growing divide between those who portray the country’s rise as a force for prosperity and peace and those who depict it as an assertive, mercantilist threat. Such conflicting paradigms oversimplify the complex political economy of the country’s international relations. These flawed frameworks reflect a lack of boundary-breaking thinking, research, and policymaking that can account for the interaction between the economic and geopolitical aspects of China’s rise. Recognizing such shortcomings is the first step toward better understanding and constructive engagement with China.
Topic:: Diplomacy and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:: China

2642. Summary and Briefings from the Stanford-China Workshop on Reducing Risks of Nuclear Terrorism

Author:: Elliot Serbin and Larry Brandt
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
Abstract:: A collaborative project engaging researchers from the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University and several Chinese nuclear organizations focused on the response to nuclear terrorism threats. A goal of the research was to identify prospective joint research initiatives that might reduce the global and regional dangers of such threats. Initiatives were identified in three technical areas: interdiction of smuggled nuclear and radiological materials; nuclear forensics; and countermeasures to radiological (“dirty bomb”) threats. Application of the methodologies of systems and risk analysis to the framing and initial assessment of these areas was emphasized in the project. The workshop summarized in this report brought together the analysis work from this project and related efforts by both Chinese and U.S. analysts.
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and War on Terror
Political Geography:: China and Global Focus

2643. China’s Uneven Response to THAAD and its Coercive Strategy Aimed at the ROK: Implications for the U.S.-ROK Alliance

Author:: George Hutchinson
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: The United States-Republic of Korea Alliance has arrived at a critical juncture. In July 2016, the countries jointly decided to deploy the U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) ballistic missile defense system to the Korean Peninsula to defend against North Korea’s accelerating nuclear and ballistic missile programs. China has long opposed an American-led, regional missile defense system, persistently warning South Korea against deploying THAAD. Since the deciding to deploy THAAD, the political landscapes in the U.S. and the ROK have changed dramatically. The new Donald J. Trump administration has signaled a change from the previous administration’s “strategic patience” policy, but details of the new approach have yet to emerge. North Korea, meanwhile, continues to aggressively test ballistic missiles and promote its nuclear weapons program. In South Korea, the impeachment and subsequent removal of Park Geun-hye triggered the need for a snap election, and a left-leaning candidate, Moon Jae-in, is leading in the polls. The election could mark a return of previous liberal administration policies that favored cooperation with North Korea. Additionally, Moon has signaled his opposition to THAAD. Nonetheless, the U.S. began deploying THAAD to South Korea in March 2017. China retaliated, implementing a series of economic, political, and military measures to pressure South Korea. This paper provides background on THAAD, analyzes the decision by Washington and Seoul to deploy the system to Korea, and examines Beijing’s concerns and coercive counterstrategy
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons, Politics, Military Strategy, Weapons, Missile Defense, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: China, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and United States of America

2644. Will China Allow North Korea to Collapse?

Author:: Gordon G. Chang
Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: Relations between China and North Korea have deteriorated during the last year, but Beijing has not fundamentally changed its approach toward its neighbor because that approach serves vital Chinese interests. If the regime of Kim Jong Un should look like it might fail—and there are several reasons why it could—Beijing’s leaders will undoubtedly do all they can to effect a rescue. The Chinese state, however, is not as stable or as capable as it appears, and it may not be in a position to lend needed assistance.
Topic:: International Relations, Bilateral Relations, Authoritarianism, and Political stability
Political Geography:: China, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and United States of America

2645. Strength and Consistency: A Key to North Korean Nuclear Sanctions

Author:: Kim Taewoo
Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: Pyongyang's fourth nuclear test on January 6, 2016, the February 2 test launch of the Kwangmyongsong-4 satellite (which in fact was a longrange missile), and other provocative activities amply reminded the international community of the reasons for strong and consistent sanctions. Such activities again proved the Kim Family Regime (KFR) will not accept voluntary changes or engage in denuclearization dialogue. Instead, the regime declared de facto "Nuclear-First Politics," thus ruling out the possibility of denuclearization. If the KFR is allowed to continue unhampered nuclear weapons development, it will become a nuclear power with over 50 nuclear weapons within a decade. Its weapons will include atomic bombs, boosted fission bombs, and hydrogen bombs. The KFR will also possess increasingly formidable delivery vehicles, such as Submarine Launched Ballistic Missiles and Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles. This situation must be a nightmare particularly to South Korea. However, the current international sanctions headed by the UNSCR 2270, along with unilateral sanctions, are unlikely to bear fruit in the foreseeable future due to China’s conflicting policies. Beijing’s attitude towards North Korean nuclear program has alternated between ‘pressure and connivance;’ its military relationship with the United States determining China’s position on sanctions. China’s alternating position prevents effective sanctions against North Korea. While the international community should endeavor to make sanctions concerted, strong and consistent, South Korea and the U.S. should think about a Plan B that includes presenting China the threat of nuclear proliferation in East Asia.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Sanctions, Nonproliferation, and UN Security Council
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North Korea, and United States of America

2646. Analyzing Japan’s Role in Korean Security within the Framework of the Quasi-Alliance Model

Author:: James F. Durand
Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: This paper assesses Japan’s role in Korean security using the quasialliance model. Developed by Professor Victor Cha, the quasi-alliance model to analyze the security relationship between Japan and the Republic of Korea, “two states that remain unallied despite sharing a common ally.” Cha defined the quasi-alliance model as “the triangular relationship between two states that are not allied, but share a third party as a common ally.” A key assumption is that the third state serves as the “great-power protector of the two states, and therefore exit opportunities for the two are limited.” While historical issues affected relations between Tokyo and Seoul, American security policies were the primary determinant of cooperation between Japan and Korea. American policy changes produced distinct “abandonment” or “entrapment” responses within the U.S.-Japan and U.S.-ROK security alliances: shared perceptions yielded cooperation, while differing views produced friction. This paper analyzes America’s East Asia policies during the Bush and Obama administrations to assess Japanese and Korean reactions. Analyzed through the quasi-alliance model, American policies produced asymmetric responses in Japan and Korea, inhibiting security cooperation between Tokyo and Seoul. Diverging views of China exacerbated inherent friction between Korea and Japan. Thus, Japan will play a limited role in Korean security.
Topic:: Security, Grand Strategy, and Alliance
Political Geography:: Japan, China, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and United States of America

2647. China and the Middle East: Venturing into the Maelstrom

Author:: James M Dorsey
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: China’s increasingly significant economic and security interests in the Middle East have several impacts. It affects not only its energy security but also its regional posture, relations with regional powers as well as the United States, and efforts to pacify nationalist and Islamist Uighurs in its north-western province of Xinjiang. Those interests are considerably enhanced by China’s One Belt, One Road initiative that seeks to patch together a Eurasian land mass through inter-linked infrastructure, investment and expanded trade relations. Protecting its mushrooming interests is forcing China to realign its policies and relationships in the region. As it takes stock of the Middle East and North Africa’s volatility and tumultuous, often violent political transitions, China feels the pressure to acknowledge that it no longer can remain aloof to the Middle East and North Africa’s multiple conflicts. China’s long-standing insistence on non-interference in the domestic affairs of others, refusal to envision a foreign military presence and its perseverance that its primary focus is the development of mutually beneficial economic and commercial relations, increasingly falls short of what it needs to do to safeguard its vital interests. Increasingly, China will have to become a regional player in competitive cooperation with the United States, the dominant external actor in the region for the foreseeable future. The pressure to revisit long-standing foreign and defence policy principles is also driven by the fact that China’s key interests in the Middle East and North Africa have expanded significantly beyond the narrow focus of energy despite its dependence on the region for half 1 China has signalled its gradual recognition of these new realities with the publication in January 2016 of an Arab Policy Paper, the country’s first articulation of a policy towards the Middle East and North Africa. But, rather than spelling out specific policies, the paper reiterated the generalities of China’s core focus in its relations with the Arab world: economics, energy, counter-terrorism, security, technical cooperation and its One Belt, One Road initiative. Ultimately however, China will have to develop a strategic vision that outlines foreign and defence policies it needs to put in place to protect its expanding strategic, geopolitical, economic, and commercial interests in the Middle East and North Africa; its role and place in the region as a rising superpower in the region; and its relationship and cooperation with the United States in managing, if not resolving conflict.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Economics, Imperialism, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:: Africa, United States, China, Middle East, Asia, and North Africa

2648. Russia’s Asia Pivot: Engaging the Russian Far East, China and Southeast Asia

Author:: Bhavna Dave
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: The Russia-ASEAN summit being held in Sochi on 19-20 May 2016 to mark twenty years of Russia’s dialogue partnership with ASEAN is a further indicator of President Vladimir Putin’s ‘pivot to Asia’ policy, triggered also by its current confrontation with the west. Through this pivot, Moscow wants to assert Russia’s geopolitical status as a Euro-Pacific as well as Asia- Pacific power. It is a pragmatic response to the shifting of global power to Asia. It also builds on the growing Russo-Chinese relations to develop the Russian Far East, a resource-rich but underdeveloped region into the gateway for expansion of Russia into the Asia Pacific. At the same time, the growing asymmetry in achieving the economic and strategic goals of Russia and China has resulted in fears that the Russian Far East will turn into a raw materials appendage of China. Moscow lacks the financial resources to support Putin’s Asia pivot. Therefore, Russia needs to strengthen ties with other Asia-Pacific countries and ASEAN as a regional grouping so as to attract more diversified trade and investments into its Far East region. It is in this context that the Sochi summit takes on added significance. However, given Russia’s sporadic interest in Southeast Asia and its strategic role defined mainly by the limited potential of Russian energy and arms exports to ASEAN Member States, the PR diplomacy and summitry at Sochi may not deliver substantive outcomes for Russia. Nonetheless, Moscow aims to enhance its status in the east and seek business and strategic opportunities through the summit thereby compensating to some extent Russia’s loss following the sanctions imposed by the west over the annexation of Crimea.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, China, Europe, and Asia

2649. Economic and Strategic Dimensions of Mega-FTAs: A Perception Survey of Asian Opinion Leaders

Author:: Xianbai Ji, Pradumna B. Rana, Wai-Mun Chia, and Changtai Li
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: The advent of mega-free trade agreements (mega-FTAs) including the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) is a defining feature of global trade governance in the 21st century. What are the costs and benefits of mega- FTAs? What is the political and strategic calculus behind mega-FTAs? Is there a “domino effect” triggering off the mega-FTA troika in a chain of reactions? Does mega-regionalism reinforce or undermine multilateralism? Since commonly used econometrics models cannot shed light on non-economic issues, this paper examines mega-regionalism by conducting a perception survey. This survey received responses from 648 opinion leaders located in 31 Asian countries. Respondents felt that mega-FTAs are good trade policy instruments that are “building blocks” to multilateralism. Linked by a “domino effect”, the mega-FTAs have important political and strategic dimensions. The United States wants to socialise China by writing high- standard “rules of the road” through the TPP. China then pivoted to RCEP to counter the TPP. Brussels through TTIP wanted to join the mega-FTA bandwagon to stay relevant. Additionally, remaining questions on decentralising global economic architecture highlight the need for regional and global institutions to complement each other.
Topic:: European Union, Multilateralism, Trans-Pacific Partnership, Free Trade, and Decentralization
Political Geography:: United States, China, Europe, Asia, and Global Focus

2650. Journal of Public and International Affairs 2016

Author:: Megan Campbell, Geoff Cooper, Kathryn Alexander, Aneliese Bernard, Nastasha Everheart, Andrej Litvinjenko, Kabira Namit, Saman Rejali, Alisa Tiwari, and Michael Wagner
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:: School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:: It is rare to find a journal that examines women’s participation in South Sudan in one chapter and the exploitation of outer space resources in the next; that dissects the effects of Chinese investment in Sub-Saharan Africa and demystifies the Ferguson effect. But the Journal of Public and International Affairs is not your average journal. It represents the very best of what graduate-level public policy students have to contribute to the pressing policy debates of today. It is wide-ranging in subject matter and trenchant in its recommendations. Founded in 1990, but with an ancestor publication dating back to 1963, the JPIA is based on the notion that students of public policy have important things to say about public affairs and that careful analysis and targeted critique can pave the way for meaningful change and progress. The graduate students published in this year’s JPIA combine practical experience from around the world with intensive academic study. They have spent the last year diving deep into the issues they are passionate about and have all been challenged by the need to move past descriptive analysis and towards concrete solutions. These papers represent the best of their scholarship.
Topic:: Security, Gender Issues, Government, Regional Cooperation, International Affairs, Foreign Direct Investment, Counter-terrorism, Women, Inequality, Protests, Policy Implementation, Rural, and Sanitation
Political Geography:: China, Iran, Middle East, India, Central America, West Africa, North America, South Sudan, Sahel, and United States of America

2651. Selected Essays on the Transition to a New Nuclear Order

Author:: Judith Reppy and Catherine M. Kelleher
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Judith Reppy Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies
Abstract:: What conditions are needed for a stable transition to a new nuclear order, one in which the total number of nuclear weapons would be reduced to very low numbers, perhaps even zero? We have addressed the myriad issues raised by this question with funding from a grant on “Creating Conditions for a Stable Transition to a New Nuclear Order,” co-directed by Catherine Kelleher and Judith Reppy, from the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation to the Judith Reppy Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies at Cornell University. The essays collected here are a sample of the work supported by the grant. The goals of our project are three-fold: to take a fresh look at the theoretical underpinnings of the arguments about strategic security and nuclear doctrines; to encourage members of the younger generation (NextGen) scholars working on nuclear security issues to see themselves as part of a network that stretches from scholars in the field to active participants in the policy process; and to disseminate the products of the project to the policy community, in Washington and elsewhere. We have convened four workshops—in Berlin (December 2014); Ithaca, NY (November 2015); Monterey, CA (February 2016); and Washington, DC (May 2016)—and held several discussion dinners in Washington, DC. We received very welcome assistance in organizing these events from the German Marshall Fund, which hosted our Berlin workshop, and Bill Potter and Jeffrey Lewis at the Middlebury Institute for International Studies in Monterey. Elaine Scott and Sandra Kisner at Cornell provided invaluable support throughout, as did Ari Kattan, Jessica Gottesman, and Debak Das.A number of themes have emerged from these meetings, which we outline below. First, however, it is worth discussing the broader context in which the project has unfolded. In a very real sense, the seeds of our project were sown by the “Gang of Four” op-ed in the Wall Street Journal in January 2007 calling for worldwide nuclear disarmament. This call, coming from four highly respected individuals in the policy world, re-invigorated the debate over the usefulness and dangers of nuclear weapons around the world, and spurred a number of similar calls from diplomats and politicians in other countries. In April 2009, President Obama gave an important speech in Prague, in which he stated that the United States was committed “to seek the peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons.”2 The shift in the political discussion encouraged scholars to return to the topics of strategic security and nuclear deterrence, topics that had fallen into neglect following the end of the Cold War. One such effort was a series of meetings organized by Catherine Kelleher under a grant from the Carnegie Corporation, which resulted in our co-edited book, Getting to Zero. In that volume the question of what a transition to nuclear zero would look like was broached, but not analyzed in detail. The current project is intended as a step toward filling that gap. The dangers that nuclear weapons pose—from accidents, miscalculation in times of crisis, or their acquisition by non-state actors—have persuaded many people that a nuclear-weapons free world is desirable. The optimism that nuclear disarmament might be feasible was based in large part on the success of European countries following World War II in building a zone of peace across the European continent, historically the site of so many bloody wars, and on the peaceful dissolution of the Soviet Union. The Russian annexation of Crimea in spring 2014, however, ushered in a period of conflict in Ukraine and threw the validity of the European model into question. In Asia, stability has been threatened by North Korea’s detonation of nuclear devices and a more assertive international policy on the part of China. These shifts in the international situation have made it clear that a new nuclear order will have to be robust enough to weather unexpected political shocks, as well as the challenges arising from technological changes that can undercut strategic balances and other changes that we cannot foresee. As Harald Müller has cogently argued, global nuclear disarmament will not happen in a world that looks like the world of today, minus nuclear weapons. Instead, it will be the result of a step-by-step process of changing ideas, building new modes of cooperation and trust among states, and finding ways to respect regional differences within a global order. The essays in this Occasional Paper offer ideas for this process. We have selected them from the larger number of commissioned papers and commentaries produced by the participants in the project. We have confined our choices to papers by NextGen participants and included examples from each of the four workshops. The issues discussed include new ways to frame deterrence logics, important both for understanding the history of the Cold War and current questions of nuclear learning (Harrington; Akhtar). Security perspectives both within and between regions are analyzed (Zhao; Martin), and the importance of cooperative approaches to security addressed (Kühn; Gheorghe).
Topic:: National Security, Nuclear Power, Denuclearization, and Transition
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, China, Europe, Asia, and North America

2652. Wandering decarbonization: the BRIC countries as conservative climate powers

Author:: Eduardo Viola and Larissa Basso
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: This article discusses the role of China, Russia, India and Brazil in the climate regime. It describes the trajectory of their emissions, of their domestic policies and of their international commitments, and argues that, despite their responsibility in causing the problem, they have been conservative forces in the climate regime.
Topic:: Climate Change, Politics, BRIC, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:: Russia, China, India, and Brazil

2653. Developing a National Standard to Regulate the Operation and Management of Venture Capital Guiding Funds

Author:: Pangoal Institution
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Pangoal Institution
Abstract:: Though National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Commerce jointly released theGuiding Opinions on Guiding Funds in 2008 and local governments also issued relevant guiding opinions when they set up guiding funds, these guiding opinions lack the administrative regulations and concrete standards for the operation of venture capital guiding funds. The establishment and operation of the 40-billion-RMB Emerging Industry Venture Capital Guiding Fund will drive the new round of peak for the establishment of venture capital guiding funds in China. To better standardize the operation and management of guiding funds, improve the operation efficiency, and prevent through systems rent-seeking behaviors such as connected transactions and inbreeding, it is imperative to formulate a national standard for guiding funds.
Topic:: Regulation, Investment, Capital, and Venture Capital
Political Geography:: China and Global Focus

2654. An Outlook for the Domestic and Foreign Policies of the New Administration of the US --Observations over the President-Elect Trump before Inauguration

Author:: Pangoal Institution
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Pangoal Institution
Abstract:: On November 9, 2016, defeating Hilary Clinton, Donald Trump was elected as the 45th American president. At the same time, the Republican Party secured majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Since November 9, 2016, Trump and his team have been working day and night on issues including personnel, policies, public opinions, and foreign relations to prepare for the inauguration on January 20, 2017. During this time, Trump has touched upon the China issue more frequently and casually compared to his predecessors, and with distinct deal mentality. It has raised more uncertainties in China about the relationship with the US after Trump takes office. The prospect we have to be concerned about is that the No.1 threat confronting China-US relationship in the future is the dominance of offensive realism and antagonistic behavior. And zero-sum pattern is starting to encroach trade and economic ties which have long been the cornerstone of the bilateral relations. The following is an observation report on what the president-elect has done and said since he won the election. All of the content is based on public information and is hereby presented to you. We hope it can help readers gain clear thinking on where America and China-US relationship are going and also offer informative reading to people who care about the bilateral relations. The report is divided into six parts, aiming to present in a systematic and comprehensive way all the preparation made by Donald Trump and his team and forecast the Trump administration’s way of governance. Due to limited space, we have to focus only on issues closely related to the interests of China. We appreciate your understanding.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Elections, Donald Trump, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

2655. African Studies in China in the 21st Century: A Historiographical Survey

Author:: Li Anshan
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:: Academic studies are always the reflection of reality. With fast development of China-Africa relations, Africanists outside China have showed great interest in China-Africa academic engagement. One of the important aspects is what has been done in China regarding African studies. I once published an article on African study in China and divided it into four phases, i.e., Contacting Africa (before 1900), Sensing Africa (1900-1949), Supporting Africa (1949-1965), Understanding Africa (1966- 1976) and Studying Africa (1977-2000) (Li 2005). Although China’s trade with Africa increased from $10.5 billion in 2000 to 220 billion in 2014, African studies in China did not have the fortune as the trade. However, the dramatic development of the relation has provided Chinese Africanists with new opportunities and challenges. This paper will elaborate what Chinese Africanists have studied in the period of 2000-2015. What subjects are they interested in? What are the achievements and weaknesses? It is divided into four parts, focus and new interests, achievements, young scholars, references and afterthoughts.
Topic:: History, Engagement, and Academia
Political Geography:: Africa and China

2656. China’s Contribution to Peacekeeping Operations: Understanding the Numbers

Author:: Dennis J. Blasko
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: China’s participation in UN Peacekeeping Operations (PKO) has received considerable media attention for the past several years as Beijing’s international profile has expanded. To be sure, of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (UNSC), China contributes the largest number of military and civilian personnel to these missions. According to UN statistics as of August 31, 2016, China provides 2,436 troops, 30 military experts, and 173 police for a total of 2,639 personnel out of just over 100,000 uniformed and civilian personnel from all countries performing PKO duties. But this is not a new development and when the details below these surface numbers are examined, it becomes clear that, with the help of the foreign media, Beijing has garnered maximum political and propaganda value from a minimal investment in personnel and money.
Topic:: United Nations, Military Strategy, Peacekeeping, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and United Nations

2657. Manila’s Pivot Toward Beijing

Author:: Peter Wood
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: In mid-October, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte visited China. His visit was marked by a recalibration in Philippine policy toward China and the announcement of economic and military “separation” from the United States.
Topic:: Development, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:: China, Malaysia, Asia, Philippines, and United States of America

2658. China and India’s Border Infrastructure Race

Author:: Sudha Ramachandran
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: The Himalayan region places tough logistic burdens on militaries operating there, making improvement of roads and rails a priority for China and India. While framing their infrastructure projects in economic terms, China’s progress has real strategic implications. Though the Indian government has often promised to prioritize its own building programs, these have yet to pan out.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Territorial Disputes, Infrastructure, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: China, India, Asia, and Himalayas

2659. Chinese Military Promises Aid to Syria

Author:: Peter Wood
Publication Date:: 08-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Although it is highly unlikely that China will deploy a large force or even, as one widely disseminated and erroneous report suggested, its aircraft carrier to fight in Syria, it is clear that China is increasing the visibility of its support for Bashar al-Assad’s government to improve its level of influence in whatever resulting post–civil war government emerges.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Humanitarian Aid, Bilateral Relations, Military Affairs, and Conflict
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, Asia, and Syria

2660. China and Iran Expand Relations After Sanctions’ End

Author:: Chris Zambelis
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: While the full implications of the JCPOA on Iran’s regional and international standing have yet to be realized, the outcome of Xi’s 2016 visit to Tehran is likely to presage years of continued Sino-Iranian engagement and cooperation. At the same time, China is steadily being confronted with outside competition for Iran’s most promising markets and similar challenges. In terms of its history of dealings with Iran in recent years, this represents unfamiliar territory for China.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, Sanctions, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:: China, Iran, Middle East, and Asia

2661. Chinese Economic Challenges to the World Trade Organization: Separating Myth from Reality

Author:: Umbreen Javaid and Muhammad Sharreh Qazi
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: China has taken the world with a different angle; an angle that kept China mostly behind its conservative mercantilist restrictions and access to foreign investors largely remained actively initiated. Even though China was admitted to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, and remained an observer to the General Agreement to Tariff and Trade (GATT), cost of receiving membership meant extreme modifications to Chinese system of economy. Modifications that required China to allow access and tariff concessions to global community and demanded Chinese nationalist mercantilist designs to be affable to international standards. This however, never meant that China would stop expanding, or at least take a recess from its economic augmentation. WTO quickly saw China rise to a point where even though it remained compliant to international economic norms, it still remained a formidable rebel to set patterns, tacitly compelling WTO and other international economic forums to feel impractical, if not impotent. Chinese economic investments, together with its dominance on international relations, has often raised questions on its intentions into becoming a member of WTO. It is often miscalculated that China intends to implode WTO from within by introducing a change in the international economic system through sheer pressure or somehow, China is strategizing to manipulate WTO as a nascent member in order to introduce another form of global competition against members that are already in antagonism towards China.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, World Trade Organization, and Soft Power
Political Geography:: Pakistan, China, South Asia, Asia, and Punjab

2662. China’s Interests and Challenges in South Asia

Author:: Umbreen Javaid
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: In the arena of international politics, South Asian region has been magnetizing greater interests and China is its close neighbor. There is no significant change in China‘s strategic interests since the end of Cold War but her economic capacities and requirements, from natural resources to transit routes have changed the level of influence and interest of her ties with South Asian region. China is continuously expanding economic activities and investing in trade and development in the region. The drive to reinforce economic development through building up transport and infrastructure connections with her neighboring states as Gwadar-Xinjiang route and KunmingChittagong route will have an increasing impact on regional stability and the states across the region. The ongoing and forthcoming projects of China, to use them in future, will surely have an impact on the economies in the region. China‘s South Asia policy is refracted through China‘s ‗all-weather friend‘ in the region; Pakistan. The presence of Uighur extremists in China‘s Xinjiang province and absence of a comprehensive counter-terrorism policy provide other areas of attention to the Chinese government with ramifications for stability in the region. China‘s interests in South Asia include attainment of a matching role against India, containing the terrorist threats and expansion of her economic base in South Asia. China‘s strategic interests can be maintained through her complete approach to move towards the path of progress and managing better ties with South Asian neighbors.
Topic:: Development, Bilateral Relations, Counter-terrorism, Geopolitics, Economy, Grand Strategy, and Soft Power
Political Geography:: Pakistan, China, South Asia, and Punjab

2663. China Central Asia Relations and opportunities for Pakistan

Author:: Umbreen Javaid and Azhar Rashid
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The purpose of this Research paper is to explore China's relations with the Central Asian region and to study its embodied effects on Pakistan.
Topic:: Security, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, History, Partnerships, Economy, and Triangular Relations
Political Geography:: Pakistan, China, South Asia, Central Asia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Punjab

2664. China-Pakistan Economic Corridor: A Road to Development and its Challenges

Author:: Mubeen Adnan and Bushra Fatima
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: On the world map, Pakistan and China being the neighboring states are inclined to develop and strengthen their relations with each other. These two states can be called as the good neighbors who can assist each other during the time of crisis. Both countries have had always a welcoming attitude towards each other in different situations due to which right from their independence till today in the 21st century, they are cooperative, supportive, encouraging, and friendly states among the other states of the world. This article is based on the fact that apart from the diplomatic, cultural relations, Pakistan and China are making great attempts and efforts for building viable economic relations with each other. It is also to see that how much these two would be beneficial in their economic interests by making the Gawadar project in their journey of making progress in economic capabilities. What challenges are being faced by these states in terms of the economic corridor. It is assumed that However, through this macro-level economic project both Pakistan and China would lead up to reach their destinations along with the attainment of their national interests.
Topic:: Development, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:: Pakistan, China, South Asia, Asia, and Punjab

2665. The Politics of Interdependence: A Case of ChinaPakistan Economic Corridor

Author:: Manzoor Khan Afridi and Iram Khalid
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: China-Pakistan strategic partnership is evolving into the politics of interdependence by encompassing not only the defense dimension but also the trade, investment, energy and infrastructure development. The proposed China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a mega project which will connect the north-western Sinkiang autonomous region‘s Kashgar city with the Pakistan‘s Gwadar Port. It is equally important both for China and Pakistan on the one hand and for the regional states of South Asia, Middle East, landlocked Central Asia and East Asia, on the other. It will provide China a shortest route of about 2500 kilometers to link with Middle East by the Pakistan‘s much needed road and railway network. A huge amount of 46 billion US dollars is allocated for the project to uplift Pakistan‘s development by meeting the energy needs, building industrial parks and economic zones. This paper will use the paradigm of interdependence to analyze the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Interdependence is a broad term which refers to such situations of reciprocal effects among the states or actors in different states. It is not only applicable to political-military interdependence but also to politicaleconomic interdependence. Here in the case it has been observed that with the rise of China and its rapidly growing economy, a relatively peaceful environment and neighborhood is imperative. With the completion of CPEC, this interdependence seems to be transformed into Complex Interdependence by creating more peaceful environment and war; costly.
Topic:: Development, Energy Policy, Politics, Regional Cooperation, Infrastructure, and Economy
Political Geography:: Pakistan, China, South Asia, and Punjab

2666. China’s Foreign Policy in the Middle East

Author:: Umbreen Javaid and Meer Waheed
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The importance of energy rich Middle East region for competing oil dependent economies of China and U.S.A is becoming more intriguing calling for cautious analytical insights for a better understanding. The convergence of interest of U.S and China coupled with the volatile political environment associated with this region questions the notion of „peaceful rise of China‟, the nature of its role in the region, and its commitment to retain neutrality which is analyzed in this paper by drawing inferences from its overall foreign policy behavior in the global affairs China is emerging as an influential actor in international politics owing to its massive economic strength coupled with rapidly developing military might and advancements in science and technology. China‟s journey of development is necessarily hinged upon an uninterrupted supply of energy which is the life line of both its economic and military prowess and in that context the importance of oil rich Middle East region becomes manifold owing to the major chunks of the crude oil china imports from this region. The strategic importance of Middle East region for the U.S.A is also an established fact that presents an interesting case study for analyzing future course of China-U.S strategic relations.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Energy Policy, Oil, Economy, and Soft Power
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, and United States of America

2667. Bringing Home the Gold? A Review of the Economic Impact of Hosting Mega-Events

Author:: Douglas Barrios, Stuart Russell, and Matt Andrews
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: There is perhaps no larger sports policy decision than the decision to host or bid to host a mega-event like the FIFA World Cup or the Summer Olympics. Hosts and bidders usually justify their decisions by touting their potential impact. Many organizers and promoters either fund or widely disseminate ex-ante studies that tend to highlight the positive effects of the event. For instance, the consultancy firm Ernst & Young produced a 2010 report prior to the 2014 World Cup in Brazil that painted an optimistic picture of the event’s potential legacy. It estimated that an additional R$ 142.39 billion (4.91% of 2010 GDP) would flow through the Brazilian economy over the 2010-2014 period, generating 3.63 million jobs per year, R$ 63.48 billion (2.17% of 2010 GDP) of income for the population and additional tax collection of R$ 18.13 billion (0.62% of 2010 GDP) for the local, state and federal governments. Ernst & Young estimated that during the same period 2.98 million additional visitors would travel to Brazil, increasing the international tourist inflow up to 79%. Such results, if true, would clearly attractive for governments considering a bid, but these expected impacts don’t always materialize. Moreover, hosting mega-events requires significant investments - and the cost of these investments is rising. Zimbalist notes emerging economies like China, Brazil, and South Africa have increasingly perceived "mega-events as a sort of coming-out party signaling that [they are] now a modernized economy, ready to make [their] presence felt in world trade and politics" (Zimbalist 2015). Their intentions may be noble, but the intention of using mega-events as a "coming-out party" means developing countries hoping to host them need to make massive investments. They are confronted by significant obstacles in that they lack sufficient stadiums, accommodations, transportation systems, and other sports-related infrastructure. As a result, each of the mega-events hosted by emerging economies has been exorbitantly expensive. The 2014 World Cup cost Brazil between USD 15 billion and USD 20 billion, while Beijing reportedly spent USD 40 billion prior to the 2008 Summer Olympic (Zimbalist 2015). Additionally, as the debt-ridden 1976 Summer Olympics in Montreal demonstrates, expensive mega-events are not limited to emerging economies alone. Flyvbjerg and Stewart have even shown that every Olympics since 1960 has gone over budget (Flyvbjerg and Stewart 2012). Such incredible figures, in terms of both costs and benefits, beget the question: are mega-events worth it? Which type of reports should governments focus their attention on? What economic consequences should a government reasonably expect? With such high stakes, policymakers need to choose wisely. We attempt to answer these questions and aid the decisions of policymakers by providing a concise review of the rich academic literature on mega-events. For the purposes of this paper, we mainly focus on the Summer Olympic Games and the FIFA World Cup as mega-events. However, we also leverage information regarding events like the Winter Olympic Games, the UEFA football championships, and the Commonwealth Games. These events are organized on a smaller scale than the previous two, but they might provide some insights on how to best understand mega-events. We focus on claims surrounding the direct or indirect mechanisms that facilitate the impact that ex-ante studies predict. We provide a review of these claims and their validity according to the existing literature. Section 1 focuses on the argument that mega-events lead to increased economic activity in the host economy. Specifically, we evaluate whether or not mega-events leads to access to previously inaccessible funds and increased investments. These investments could theoretically come from supranational organizations, private stakeholders, or public stakeholders. We also consider whether or not these new expenditures and investments have the multiplicative effect that many ex-ante studies assume they have. We finally investigate if the economic activity surrounding mega-events leads to increased revenues and tax collection for host governments. Overall, the existing academic literature suggests that any increased economic activity resulting from the event is routinely dwarfed by additional public budgetary commitments. Moreover, the arguments regarding multiplicative effects and increased revenues also tend to be exaggerated. Section 2 shifts the focus to the potential impact of mega-events on a specific industry: tourism. We explore the effect of mega-events on the number of tourists visiting the host region and their spending habits. We explore this channel both for analyses specific to a single mega-event and for cross-country evaluations incorporating many events. Next, we consider the impact of a mega-event on a region’s brand and image in the international community with the idea of testing if hosting the competition will impact future tourism. Finally, we consider if mega-events lead to increases in the capacity of a city or country to welcome future tourists as a result of improved airport infrastructure, accommodations, and/or transportation systems. As was true in Section 1, the academic literature suggests that the claims of many ex-ante studies are misleading. Our review finds that there is some evidence for increases in tourist arrivals to certain events, but those increases are far smaller than what is generally predicted beforehand. These effects are also usually dependent on factors, such as the timing of the competition, that are specific to the host region and the event itself. Section 3 briefly discusses other potential qualitative and social impacts of mega-events such as international business relations, crime reduction, and the "feel-good effect." In the penultimate section, Section 4, we discuss how these conclusions should impact the decision-making of policymakers. Finally, in a short conclusion, we summarize the findings of our review.
Topic:: Infrastructure, Sports, Economy, Olympics, and World Cup
Political Geography:: China, South Africa, Brazil, and Global Focus

2668. China and the World in the Coming Decade

Author:: Shyam Saran
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: In the next decade, how US-China relations unfold will shape the external environment for countries like India. How does China perceive the Trump presidency?
Topic:: International Relations, Bilateral Relations, Economy, and Trump
Political Geography:: China, South Asia, India, Asia, North America, and United States of America

2669. Impact of China Slowdown on India

Author:: Geetima Das Krishna and Ankit Bhardwaj
Publication Date:: 02-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: After three decades of double-digit growth, China is slowing as it is rebalancing its economy from export-driven to less-volatile domestic consumption driven economy. The paper looks at the impact of China slowdown on India through different channels. Even though India is usurping China as the fastest growing major economy in the world, Indian economy being a fifth of the Chinese economy and also less material intensive can hardly substitute for China as a global growth driver. China has emerged as the largest trading partner of India but India’s trade still remains less vulnerable to Chinese slowdown directly as India’s services exports account for as much as 50% of India’s overall exports (merchandise and services). On the other hand, China’s total FDI investment in India has been miniscule $1.2 billion till September 2015 and India’s infrastructure sector, with its massive investment needs, can be the natural destination for Chinese investments. India reaped the indirect benefit of lower commodity prices in terms of narrower CAD, softening inflation, lower interest rate, increased government fiscal bonanza, all of which contributed to greater macro-stability in India. It was also found that a 50bps decline in China’s growth rate is likely to lower India’s growth by 30bp in the short run.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, Economy, Economic Growth, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:: China, South Asia, India, and Asia

2670. The Blind Men and the Elephant: Making Sense of China's One Belt One Road Initiative

Author:: Nimmi Kurian
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: China’s One Belt One Road Initiative has virtually been a lightning rod for divisive debate and a polarised narrative since it was announced in 2013. For India, it has been the proverbial elephant in the room, as it awkwardly swings between willful pretence and wishful erasure. The policy brief looks at the clues this initiative could offer on the likely drivers of China’s economic diplomacy in the region. There could be three signals for India to watch out for. A clear pointer is the growing role of domestic determinants in setting the direction and pace of China’s regional economic engagement. Another pointer could be China’s role in shaping and defining Asia’s new institutional financial architecture. Lastly, the initiative could be a signal of how China is likely to engage with the larger questions of benefit sharing, trade-offs and the allocation of risks and burdens in subregional Asia.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, Infrastructure, Economic Growth, and Soft Power
Political Geography:: China, South Asia, India, and Asia

2671. Flows and Flaws: Diverting the Debate on Water with China

Author:: Nimmi Kurian
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: China’s growing water thirst lends an urgency to understand China’s resource choices, the possible conditions under which it is likely to exercise these choices and the ripple effects these are likely to have across the borders. While overinterpretation and hysteria has tended to take the place of informed scholarship and media, India’s official narrative has largely tended to downplay many of these concerns. The paper argues that the debate has also unwittingly ended up being a single-issue debate fixated on water diversion, in the process inadvertently diverting attention away from other equally important issues. Can we frame the water debate with China in ways that can create institutional entry points for a whole set of missing issues that are currently invisible to the mainstream policy and research gaze? India and China’s willingness to begin a subregional conversation on regional public goods could pave the way to designing norms of benefit sharing, negotiating trade-offs, and allocating risks and burdens on collective goods and bads in the region.
Topic:: International Relations, Regional Cooperation, Natural Resources, Water, and Negotiation
Political Geography:: China, South Asia, India, and Asia

2672. China politics: Portrait of a purge

Publication Date:: 02-2016
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:: China

2673. China/Laos politics: Quick View - China calls for bombing to be investigate

Publication Date:: 02-2016
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:: China and Laos

2674. China politics: Punching high

Publication Date:: 02-2016
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:: China

2675. China politics: Core values

Publication Date:: 02-2016
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:: China

2676. China politics: Loyal to the core

Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:: China

2677. China politics: Quick View - Lack of transparency stokes illegal vaccine fe

Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:: China

2678. China politics: The mouth and throat of the party

Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:: China

2679. China politics: This insubstantial pageant

Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:: China

2680. China/Hong Kong politics: Fear-jerker

Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:: China and Hong Kong

2681. China politics: Rohmer-therapy

Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:: China

2682. China/Sub-Saharan Africa/MEA politics: A despot's guide to foreign aid

Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:: China and South Sudan

2683. China politics: Beware the cult of Xi

Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:: China

2684. China politics: Underground, overground

Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:: China

2685. China: Political forces at a glance

Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics, Summary, Background, and Political forces at a glance
Political Geography:: China

2686. China/Myanmar politics: High mountains, distant emperors

Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:: China and Myanmar

2687. China/Taiwan politics: Quick View - Kenya deports Taiwanese citizens to Chi

Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:: China and Taiwan

2688. China: Key figures

Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics, Background, Forecast, and Key players to watch
Political Geography:: China

2689. China: Political and institutional effectiveness

Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics, Background, Forecast, and Political and institutional effectiveness
Political Geography:: China

2690. Malaysia/China politics: China-Malaysia: tightening economic ties

Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:: China and Malaysia

2691. China/Taiwan politics: New Taiwanese president outlines ambitious prioritie

Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:: China and Taiwan

2692. China politics: Spate of scandals raise public ire

Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Country Data and Maps
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Politics and News Analysis
Political Geography:: China

2693. A Deeper Look at China’s “Going Out” Policy

Author:: Hongying Wang
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: In recent years, the world has seen rapid growth in China’s financial reach beyond its borders. Following the announcement of a “going out” strategy at the turn of the century, many Chinese enterprises have ventured to invest and operate abroad. After three decades as primarily a recipient of foreign direct investment (FDI), China has now emerged as a major FDI-originating country as well. Much of China’s foreign aid is closely entangled with its outgoing FDI, and it has also been rising. Since 2013, the Chinese government has been pushing for a new One Belt, One Road (OBOR) initiative, aiming to connect China with countries along the ancient Silk Road and a new Maritime Silk Road via infrastructure investment. In addition, since 2009, China has actively promoted the internationalization of its currency, the renminbi (RMB). There has been a great deal of anxiety about the motivations behind China’s going out policy and its possible international consequences. Many view it as an expression of China’s international ambition and a strategy that threatens the existing international order; however, that is not the whole story. An equally important but often less understood issue is the role of China’s domestic politics and political economy in shaping its new activism in foreign financial policy. Moreover, it is unclear how successful the going out policy is. The complexity of China’s going out policy was the topic for a recent round table discussion hosted by the Centre for International Governance Innovation and the Foreign Policy Institute at the School of Advanced International Studies of Johns Hopkins University in Washington, DC.[1] Participants discussed a number of issues around two broad themes: the impact of domestic political economy on China’s foreign economic policy and the challenges for China’s external financial strategy — in particular, its OBOR initiative.
Topic:: Markets, Political Economy, Monetary Policy, Infrastructure, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Markets
Political Geography:: China

2694. Growth, Innovation and COP 21: The Case for New Investment In Innovation Infrastructure

Author:: Céline Bak
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: On the way to Washington, DC, for a September 2015 visit, Chinese President Xi Jinping stopped in Seattle, WA, to sign an agreement aimed at combatting climate change by increasing the business ties between Chinese and US clean technology companies (South China News 2015). Five US states signed the agreement on commerce between China and clean-tech businesses from California, Iowa, Michigan, Oregon and Washington. On the same day, Bill Gates’s energy company, TerraPower, signed an agreement with the China National Nuclear Corporation for joint cooperation on next-generation renewable and fusion nuclear power. In early 2015, Malaysia’s sovereign wealth fund invested in General Fusion, a Canadian company based in Vancouver, to advance its energy innovation.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Science and Technology, Treaties and Agreements, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:: China

2695. China and Global Energy Governance under the G20 Framework

Author:: Alex He
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: This paper explores China’s perspectives and practices in its quest for overseas energy supply security and its participation in international energy cooperation since becoming a net oil import country in 1993. It compares the traditional approach, in which China mainly focuses on bilateral means to pursue its overseas energy supply security, and the new concept of energy security, in which greater involvement in global energy governance, in particular in the Group of Twenty (G20), is highlighted to promote China’s energy security. The paper argues that China still retains a bilateral and regional cooperation approach, while making progress in developing closer cooperation with existing major global energy governing institutions. The One Belt, One Road strategy proposed in 2013 is regarded as a strengthened version of the bilateral and regional cooperation approach. Chinese academic circles constitute the main forces advocating China’s more positive participation in global energy governance. The G20 provides significant institutional arrangements to coordinate big powers to govern the international energy markets and to address climate change. This paper suggests that, given China’s growing prominence at the G20, it could be the proper platform for the country to play a more active role in global energy governance.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Oil, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Governance, and G20
Political Geography:: China

2696. Is Indonesia the Next China?

Author:: Wendy Dobson
Publication Date:: 02-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: This paper reviews Indonesia’s economic prospects and what these imply for a closer relationship with Canada. By posing the question “Is Indonesia the next China?,” the author suggests that Indonesia has the considerable economic potential envisaged by foreign investors, but conveys uncertainty as to whether Southeast Asia’s most populous country can make the changes necessary to realize that potential. A review of the economic record and comparison of China’s and Indonesia’s economic structures, endowments and institutions show major differences between the two countries. The paper further questions what it will take to realize Indonesia’s potential, finding the answers to be: human capital development; increased participation in the region’s global value chains; meeting the growing middle-class demand for modern services; raising productivity in agriculture and fishing; and increasing use of the Internet. Failure to make these changes will increase the chances of Indonesia’s growth in per capita incomes slowing and falling into the middle-income trap. Canada’s role will be to monitor closely how Indonesia tackles its five priorities at the same time as it responds to the opportunities to exploit Indonesia’s abundant natural resources, urbanization and its expanding consumer demand for modern services and educational opportunities.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, Human Welfare, International Trade and Finance, Natural Resources, and Regulation
Political Geography:: China and Indonesia

2697. Geopolitics: An Overview of Concepts and Empirical Examples from International Relations

Author:: Soren Scholvin
Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Geopolitical research is frequently portrayed as a dead end. To some scholars it appears that in the 21st century geography is largely scenery, all but irrelevant to the most important issues of grand strategy. This working paper aims to revitalise geopolitics, reflecting both on the critique of the subject and the strengths that have characterised it for more than a century. It is argued that geographical conditions constitute a set of opportunities and constraints, a structure that is independent of agency. General patterns and long-term processes can be aptly explained by this structure but geopolitics is not a theory of state behaviour or foreign policy. Understanding specific phenomena that occur in international relations therefore requires taking into consideration non-geographical factors. Such a combination of geographical and non-geographical factors provides sound explanations, as several examples demonstrate: China’s projection of power into the Indian Ocean, South Africa’s approach to the political crisis in Zimbabwe in 2008, Iran’s maritime strategy and the poor integration of Colombia and South America. Given that geopolitics is about analysing international relations (or politics) for its geographical content, all those committed to geopolitics should concentrate on the three guiding questions: Do geographical conditions influence the observed outcome? If yes, do geographical conditions influence the observed outcome significantly? If yes, how, meaning in combination with which other factors do geographical conditions influence the observed outcome?
Topic:: Geopolitics
Political Geography:: China, Iran, South Africa, Colombia, South America, and Zimbabwe

2698. Beyond Manufacturing: Developing the Service Sector to Drive Growth in the PRC

Author:: Wei Wang, Gemma Estrada, Jurgen Conrad, Sang-Hyop Lee, and Donghyun Park
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: As demand from global markets declines, slowing exports of manufactured goods from the People's Republic of China means the country must increasingly rely on domestic markets for growth. Unlike manufactured goods, services—those "intangible" products that include everything from transportation to scientific research to real estate services—are geared more toward domestic markets. Services, then, will be key to the rebalancing process. However, while the service sector has grown rapidly in the PRC, it continues to lag behind other countries at similar stages of development. In addition, the sector is dominated by traditional low-end types of services, rather than knowledge-intensive services. Heavy regulatory burdens, barriers to trade in services, and an unfavorable policy environment have been major obstacles to upgrading the sector and improving its competitiveness. Policy reform should focus on strengthening competition to raise productivity, with the goal of increasing not only the number of jobs and contribution to GDP, but also of positioning the service sector to compete internationally and spur export growth.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Markets, Political Economy, Reform, and GDP
Political Geography:: China

2699. Mega-FTAs and the Trade-Security Nexus: The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)

Author:: Vinod K. Aggarwal
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: The rise of a multiplicity of diverse bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) has led countries to pursue mega-FTAs to manage the growing complexity of global trade arrangements. The US and China are promoting rival accords: the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which would encompass 800 million people and almost 40 percent of global GDP, is a centerpiece of the Obama Asia Pacific strategy. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) would account for 30 percent of global GDP, with a population of over three billion people, creating the largest FTA in the world. TPP advocates assert that it will strengthen the US’ strategic role in the region, in part by countering China’s membership in the RCEP. These claims, made in response to growing skepticism in the United States about the value of liberalized trade, overemphasize the TPP’s strategic value. At the same time, projecting the economic impact of the TPP is thorny, given the deal’s scope and the diversity of countries involved.
Political Geography:: China

2700. At the Crossroads: The TPP, AIIB, and Japan's Foreign Economic Strategy

Author:: Saori N. Katada
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: In 2015, two mega-initiatives took shape that will affect economic relations in the Asia-Pacific region: the US-promoted Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement and the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). Although they address different needs, both are expected to have profound effects on Asia's economic governance in the near future, and will shape economic norms in the Asia Pacific and beyond. Japan has joined the TPP but stayed out of the AIIB, decisions that might seem counterintuitive considering its history of resisting trade liberalization and of promoting infrastructure investment. Is Japan simply favoring its US ally over rival China? Or is it that Japan's position on the TPP and AIIB aligns with its own economic priorities, and enhances its geo-economic advantage? With a US-China competition over economic ideas and regional strategies, Japan occupies a unique position that may allow it to influence the direction of Asia-Pacific economic governance, which is now being battled out by the two "titans."
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: China and Asia

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS