Political Geography: China / Publication Year: within 25 Years / Topic: International Trade and Finance

201. Global Cybercrime: The Interplay of Politics and Law

Author:: Aaron Shull
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: Examining global cybercrime as solely a legal issue misses an important facet of the problem. Understanding the applicable legal rules, both domestically and internationally, is important. However, major state actors are using concerted efforts to engage in nefarious cyber activities with the intention of advancing their economic and geostrategic interests. This attempt to advance a narrow set of economic interests through cybercrime and economic cyber espionage holds to the potential to erode the trust in the digital economy that has been a necessary condition for the success of the Internet as an economic engine for innovation and growth. By pursuing these efforts, states are prioritizing short-term interests over long-term stability and a responsibly governed, safe and secure Internet platform. This paper explores the recent unsealing of a 31-count indictment against five Chinese government officials and a significant cyber breach, perpetrated by Chinese actors against Western oil, energy and petrochemical companies. The paper concludes by noting that increased cooperation among governments is necessary, but unlikely to occur as long as the discourse surrounding cybercrime remains so heavily politicized and securitized. If governments coalesced around the notion of trying to prevent the long-term degradation of trust in the online economy, they may profitably advance the dialogue away from mutual suspicion and toward mutual cooperation.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Crime, International Trade and Finance, Terrorism, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Asia

202. Power Shift and Renminbi Internationalization: Recommendations for the G20

Author:: Raluca Diana Ardelean and Mengun Zhang
Publication Date:: 07-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: China has gained substantial economic power in recent years, becoming the second-largest trading nation after the United States and the largest goods-trading nation since 2012 (Eichengreen 2014). It is also currently the largest source of savings and the largest potential source of capital for international investment (ibid.). Measured by GDP, China is now the second-largest economy in the world (see Figure 1), and the World Bank surmises it is likely to surpass the United States in 2014 (World Bank 2014). Because of China's growing economic importance, a shift in power is reasonably assumed. As its economic power grows, internationalization of the RMB has become a key policy goal for China, especially after the 2008 financial crisis (Zhang 2009; Park 2010; China Securities Regulatory Commission [CSRC] 2014). This goal demonstrates China's desire for better integration and representation in the international economic community and signals its willingness to perform internal financial reforms and take more responsibility in global economic affairs.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Asia

203. The China-EU BIT: The emerging "Global BIT 2.0"?

Author:: Wenhua Shan and Lu Wang
Publication Date:: 08-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: Since China and the European Union (EU) announced their decision to negotiate a bilateral investment treaty (BIT) at the 14th China-EU Summit in February 2012, the two sides have engaged in two rounds of negotiations. If successful, it will be the first standalone EU BIT, a BIT between the world's largest developed economy and the world's largest developing economy, and will occupy a unique place in the history of BIT negotiations.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and Asia

204. Morocco's Emergence as a Gateway to Business in Africa

Author:: J. Peter Pham and Ricardo Rene Laremont
Publication Date:: 08-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Africa is home to seven of the world's ten fastest-growing economies. By 2050, the continent's population is expected to overtake India's and China's, doubling to two billion people. Moreover, those two billion Africans will be younger than their counterparts in every other region of the world and will account for one in four workers globally by mid-century. Africa's rich endowment of natural resources, including about 30 percent of the world's known reserves of minerals and 60 percent of the planet's uncultivated arable land, is already well-known to investors.
Topic:: Security, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: Africa, China, and Morocco

205. Impact of China‐Africa Investment Relations: The Case of Ethiopia

Author:: Alemayehu Geda and Atenafu G. Meskel
Publication Date:: 07-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
Abstract:: This study investigated the growing relation between Ethiopia and China in the last decade. It is possible for Chinese-Africa relations to be either complementary or competitive (or indeed both) and it has multifaceted features. Notwithstanding this multifaceted linkage, the study focused on one of the channels – the investment (FDI) channel. Other channels are explored depending on the degree at which they shed light on understanding the Chinese-Ethiopian investment relations, which is the subject of this study.
Topic:: Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:: Africa, China, Asia, and Ethiopia

206. The Impact of China‐Africa Investment Relations: The Case of Madagascar

Author:: Jean Razafindravonona, Eric Rakotomanana, and Jimmy Rajaobelina
Publication Date:: 07-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
Abstract:: The rapid and spectacular expansion of the Chinese economy in the recent past is, for African countries, an opportunity to take advantage of not only in terms of strengthening the South-South cooperation, but also of developing African economies. It is thus important to define the channels through which African countries would do so. It is with this goal in mind that the African Economic Research Consortium (AERC) initiated the research project on the impact of the economic relation between China and sub-Saharan African countries.
Topic:: Development, Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, Global Political Economy, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:: Africa, China, Asia, and Madagascar

207. The Impact of China‐Africa Trade Relations: The Case of the Republic of Congo

Author:: Jean‐Christophe Boungou Bazika
Publication Date:: 07-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
Abstract:: The relations between China and Congo are already old since they began in 1963. However since the beginning of the 2000s, the economic relations between the two countries are characterized by an unprecedented dynamism. Congo’s exports and imports with China recorded a leap of 179.38% and 309.21% respectively for the period 2001-2005. Such a trend pushed analysts to predict that the relations between Africa and China should have a significant impact and lead to upheavals in the structure of African economies. Two tendencies emerged in the literature: the first predicts that these relations would have a negative impact, in the sense that they would provoke a competition that African producers would not be able to bear. The second predicts that these relations would enable African countries to consolidate their growth, thanks to the diversification of trade and the installation of infrastructures which were lacking - such as roads, bridges, hydro-electric dams, drinking water purification plants, etc.
Topic:: Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, Global Political Economy, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:: Africa, China, Asia, and Republic of Congo

208. Orville Schell: 'A Dream for a Strong and Respected China'

Author:: Orville Schell and John Delury
Publication Date:: 07-2013
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Asia Society
Abstract:: New York, July 16, 2013 - China scholars Orville Schell and John Delury discuss how the "Chinese Dream" has evolved to encompass facets of the American Dream while still retaining a traditional, communal character as regards acquiring wealth. (1 min., 45 sec.)
Topic:: Communism, Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: China, New York, East Asia, and Asia

209. The futile debate over a multilateral framework for investment

Author:: Axel Berger
Publication Date:: 08-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: One of the recurrent debates on international investment rule-making relates to the question whether it is possible to establish a multilateral framework for investment (MFI). Proponents argue that growing foreign direct investment (FDI) from emerging countries, especially China, contributes to a new consensus on global investment rules.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: China

210. The Global Arctic: The Growing Arctic Interests of Russia, China, the United States and the European Union

Author:: Juha Käpylä and Harri Mikkola
Publication Date:: 08-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: With exciting economic opportunities and serious environmental challenges, the Arctic is transforming and re-emerging as a geopolitically important region. Major global players within and without the Arctic are paying greater attention to the region. While Russia is a traditional Arctic state with significant economic and security interests in the region, China, the US and the EU have also expressed their Arctic interests more explicitly. They are keen to tap into the economic potential and have a say in the way the region becomes accessed, exploited and governed. As a result, the Arctic is no longer a spatially or administratively confined region, but is instead taking its new form in the midst of contemporary global politics. The globalization and economization of the Arctic will most likely downplay environmentalism and reduce the relative influence of the indigenous people and small Arctic states in Arctic affairs. Arctic governance is also likely to turn more complex and complicated as the economic and political stakes are raised.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Development, International Trade and Finance, Oil, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, China, and Europe

211. The Hyperglobalization of Trade and Its Future

Author:: Arvind Subramanian and Martin Kessler
Publication Date:: 08-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: This paper describes seven salient features of trade integration in the 21st century: Trade integration has been more rapid than ever (hyperglobalization); it is dematerialized, with the growing importance of services trade; it is democratic, because openness has been embraced widely; it is criss-crossing because similar goods and investment flows now go from South to North as well as the reverse; it has witnessed the emergence of a mega-trader (China), the first since Imperial Britain; it has involved the proliferation of regional and preferential trade agreements and is on the cusp of mega-regionalism as the world's largest traders pursue such agreements with each other; and it is impeded by the continued existence of high barriers to trade in services. Going forward, the trading system will have to tackle three fundamental challenges: In developed countries, the domestic support for globalization needs to be sustained in the face of economic weakness and the reduced ability to maintain social insurance mechanisms. Second, China has become the world's largest trader and a major beneficiary of the current rules of the game. It will be called upon to shoulder more of the responsibilities of maintaining an open system. The third challenge will be to prevent the rise of mega-regionalism from leading to discrimination and becoming a source of trade conflicts. We suggest a way forward—including new areas of cooperation such as taxes—to maintain the open multilateral trading system and ensure that it benefits all countries.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: China

212. Productive Power and Policy Change in Global Finance: An Analysis of China's Financial Policy Framing in the Bretton Woods Institutions

Author:: Sandra Heep
Publication Date:: 09-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:: Against the backdrop of China's increasingly influential role in global finance and the debate on the emergence of a “Beijing Consensus,” this paper examines whether the ideology that China promotes in the Bretton Woods institutions is conducive to the initiation of financial policy change at the international level. Drawing on Barnett and Duvall's (2005) conceptualization of productive power, Snow and Benford's (1988) framing theory and Freeden's (1996) understanding of ideology, the paper develops a theoretical framework for the analysis of international policy framing. Following an overview of China's rise in global finance, it identifies the core elements of the ideology that has been promoted by Chinese government officials in the Bretton Woods institutions since the onset of the global financial crisis. The paper argues that China's ruling elites will only be able to initiate a shift in the global consensus on acceptable financial policies if the frames that they propagate succeed in striking a balance between ideological continuity and change.
Topic:: Communism, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:: China and Israel

213. China's Credit Boom: New Risks Require New Reforms

Author:: Nicholas Borst
Publication Date:: 10-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The Chinese financial system has undergone almost continuous reform since the dismantling in the 1980s of the Soviet- style system where only one state-controlled bank existed. Government efforts to create a financial system that adheres to international best practices of commercial lending accelerated in the 1990s (box 1). Reforms progressed quickly during this period, but they were accompanied by excessive credit growth and a massive increase in nonperforming loans, threatening the solvency of some banks and the financial stability of the entire economy. The risk of these weaknesses was dramatized by the 1997 Asian financial crisis, in which several nearby countries were crippled by plunging currency values, rising interest rates and difficulties servicing their foreign-held debts.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: China

214. China\'s Exports of Small Arms and Light Weapons

Author:: Mark Bromley, Paul Holtom, and Mathieu Duchâtel
Publication Date:: 10-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:: China has long been one of the world\'s most significant exporters of small arms and light weapons (SALW). It is also among the least transparent. At the same time, China has stated its commitment to preventing the illicit trade in SALW and formally recognizes the destabilizing effect that SALW transfers can have on peace and security, economic development and social stability.
Topic:: Crime, International Law, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: China

215. Obama's Asia Pivot and the Koreas

Author:: Richard Weitz
Publication Date:: 11-2013
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: The end of President Barack Obama's first term provides an opportunity to assess what the administration's "strategic rebalancing" toward and within the Asia-Pacific region (sometimes called the "Asian Pivot" or "Back to Asia" policy) has accomplished as well as what challenges and unmet opportunities remain. The administration has launched several successful multinational diplomatic initiatives in the region to supplement U.S. bilateral ties with key Asian partners; relations with ASEAN have clearly improved. The economic dimension of the Pivot has made progress as seen by the growth of support for the Trans-Pacific Partnership. U.S. efforts to promote democracy and human rights in Asia have proved far less successful, except perhaps for Myanmar, where the political transition remains a work in progress. The U.S. military has managed to establish a broader presence in the region, especially in Australia and Southeast Asia. U.S. officials have sought to impart new energy into the five existing formal U.S. bilateral defense alliances in Asia--with Australia, Japan, the Philippines, Thailand, and South Korea. But the main problem with the pivot has been the inability to overcome Chinese anxiety about U.S. rebalancing, which has complicated their cooperation over North Korea and other issues. Fortunately, relations between the United States and South Korea are also strong. The ROK is becoming an important U.S. partner in several dimensions of the Pivot, though ROK-U.S. differences over North Korea might emerge with the advent of a new government in Seoul.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: Japan, China, Asia, Australia, and Thailand

216. How much did China's WTO accession increase economic growth in resource-rich countries?

Author:: Mikkel Barslund, Thomas Barnebeck Andersen, Casper Worm Hansen, Thomas Harr, and Peter Sandholt Jensen
Publication Date:: 10-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: This Working Document provides an estimate of China's impact on the growth rate of resource-rich countries since its WTO accession in December 2001. The authors' empirical approach follows the logic of the differences-in-differences estimator. In addition to temporal variation arising from the WTO accession, which they argue was exogenous to other countries' growth trajectories, the authors exploit spatial variation arising from differences in natural resource wealth. In this way they can compare changes in economic growth in the pre- and post-accession periods between countries that benefited from the surge in demand for industrial commodities brought about by China's WTO accession and countries that were less able to do so. They find that that roughly one-tenth of the average annual post-accession growth in resource-rich countries was due to China's increased appetite for commodities. The authors use this finding to inform the debate about what will happen to economic growth in resource-rich countries as China rebalances and its demand for commodities weakens.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: China

217. The EU-China partnership: 10 years on

Author:: Nicola Casarini
Publication Date:: 10-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:: The establishment of the EU-China 'strategic partnership' on 30 October 2003 came at a time of converging priorities between the two actors. It also coincided with one of the worst crises in transatlantic relations, mainly due to disagreements over the US-led war in Iraq and the foreign policy stance of the first Bush ad¬ministration. As a result of the partnership, the then EU-15 and China adopted three initiatives which caught the attention of US policymakers.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Biosecurity
Political Geography:: China, Iraq, and Europe

218. Engaging Indonesia

Author:: David Camroux
Publication Date:: 09-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:: The presence of Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono at the G20 Summit in St Petersburg in early September went virtually unnoticed by the European media. That his attendance was overlooked can be explained by immediate factors, namely the overriding importance of the Syrian conflict in the discussions among leaders, and the fact that SBY (as President Yudhoyono is commonly known) is a lame-duck president with less than a year to go before the end of his two-term limit. Lacking BRIC status (for now at least), Indonesia – unlike China, India or even Brazil – barely registers on the radar screen of public awareness in Europe. Symptomatic of this neglect is the fact that, almost four years after its signing in November 2009, two EU member state parliaments (and the European Parliament itself) have yet to ratify the EU-Indonesia Partnership and Cooperation Agreement.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: China, Europe, India, Brazil, Syria, and Southeast Asia

219. Crucial Collaborators or Petty Players? The Globalization of R and the Rise of China and India

Author:: Andrew B. Kennedy
Publication Date:: 11-2013
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Center for the Advanced Study of India
Abstract:: In recent decades, research and development has become a key new arena of globalization. Whereas multinational corporations once conducted R primarily in their home countries, it is now often dispersed across multiple locations around the world. Has this process transformed economic ties between the world's dominant state and its would-be rising powers in ways that imply an important power shift? Focusing on China and India's growing collaboration with the U.S., this paper argues that it has not. China and India remain considerably more reliant on the globalization of R than the U.S. does, and this remains a potential source of leverage for Washington. This vulnerability mainly reflects the fact that U.S. R investments in China and India are far more important for these two Asian countries than they are for the U.S. These investments loom larger in the Chinese and Indian innovation systems than they do in their American counterpart, and it is difficult to imagine any country substituting for the U.S. in this regard. In contrast, the U.S. cannot derive a great deal of leverage as a platform for R Both China and India are considerably less dependent on the U.S. in this respect.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:: United States, China, and India

220. Trade and the G20

Author:: John Ravenhill, Mark P Thirlwell, Mike Callaghan, Peter W. Gallagher, and Brett Williams
Publication Date:: 06-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: This issue of the G20 Monitor is devoted to the topic of international trade and the role of the G20. Over the coming months, the Monitor will be covering in detail a number of issues that are, or could be, on the G20 agenda. For example, over the next few months there will be an issue on 'Financial regulation and the G20' and another on 'Development and the G20'. The question we are asking on each issue is 'where can the G20 add value?'
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Europe

221. China's New Silk Road Diplomacy

Author:: Justyna Szczudlik- Tatar
Publication Date:: 12-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The destinations of China's new leaders' foreign trips show that the PRC's foreign policy domain remains its neighbourhood. China is trying in particular to enhance cooperation with its Central and Southeast Asia border states in what is called "new silk road" diplomacy. Behind this approach are mostly domestic rationales: a need to preserve stability on its borders and in the western part of China, secure export markets and energy supplies, develop inland transport routes as an alternative to unstable sea lines, and to narrow the development gap between the eastern and western parts of China. The PRC's "opening to the West" and reinvigoration of its Western Development Policy is a window of opportunity for Poland. The establishment in Gansu province of the Lanzhou New Area-the first state-level development zone in northwest China-could become a bridgehead for a Polish economic presence in this part of China, or even a springboard for Poland's "Go West China" strategy.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: China and Southeast Asia

222. Stabilizing Properties of Flexible Exchange Rates: Evidence from the Global Financial Crisis

Author:: Joseph E. Gagnon
Publication Date:: 11-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: There is a long-standing debate among economists and policymakers on the benefits of flexible versus fixed exchange rates (Klein and Shambaugh 2010). In principle, flexible exchange rates allow a country's central bank to focus on stabilizing economic growth and inflation, which are the ultimate goals of monetary policy. However, some argue that in practice central banks often do not use their powers wisely and it may be better to restrict their freedom by requiring them to peg their currency to that of an important trading partner. Others note that flexible exchange rates are far more volatile than fundamental factors can explain (Flood and Rose 1995), raising the possibility that they may introduce wasteful cross-sectoral fluctuations in economic activity. One common viewpoint is that flexible exchange rates may be fine for large countries but that the smallest countries are better off with fixed exchange rates (Åslund 2010).
Topic:: Economics, Foreign Exchange, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, China, and United Kingdom

223. Go out and manufacture: Policy support for Chinese FDI in Africa

Author:: Nikia Clarke
Publication Date:: 11-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: Energy investments and infrastructure contracts remain prominent in China's Africa engagement. However, investment in manufacturing makes up a significant proportion of Chinese outward foreign direct investment (FDI). Its characteristics–large numbers of smaller transactions by privately owned small and medium-sized firms–make these flows difficult to assess or control. However, China and African governments have an interest in effectively channeling this type of FDI.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: Africa and China

224. Why Growth in Emerging Economies Is Likely to Fall

Author:: Anders Åslund
Publication Date:: 11-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Emerging-market growth from 2000 to 2012 was untypically high. This paper highlights the many reasons why emerging-economy growth is likely to be lower going forward. Much of the catch-up potential has already been used up. The extraordinary credit and commodity booms are over, and many large emerging economies are financially fragile. They have major governance problems, so they need to carry out major structural reforms to be able to proceed with a decent growth rate, but many policymakers are still in a state of hubris and not very inclined to opt for reforms. They are caught up in state and crony capitalism. Rather than providing free markets for all, the West might limit its endeavors to its own benefit. Economic convergence has hardly come to an end, but it has probably reached a hiatus that is likely to last many years. The emerging economies need to improve their quality of governance and other economic policies substantially to truly catch up. For a decade or so, the West could take the global economic lead once again as in the 1980s.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and Governance
Political Geography:: Russia, China, India, South Africa, and Brazil

225. Taking off as a Global Power? China's Foreign Policy "Grand Strategy"

Author:: Sven Bernhard Gareis
Publication Date:: 04-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
Abstract:: The People's Republic of China has long been a very visible actor in international politics. With 1.4 billion inhabitants, it is the most populous country in the world, with a land mass of 9.6 million square kilometers bordering 14 states in East, South, and Central Asia. China has a long Pacific coastline, along which it claims vast areas of the South China Sea. A nuclear power since 1964, the People's Republic of China has the largest armed forces in the world, numbering approximately 2.3 million soldiers. China has been a permanent member of the UN Security Council since 1971; for many years, it has figured prominently in all decision making processes with global impact.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: China and Central Asia

226. China's impact on conflict and fragility in South Asia

Author:: Clare Castillejo
Publication Date:: 01-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: China is expanding its engagement across South Asia, with significant implications for the region's most fragile states. Western donors and peacebuilding actors are aware of this changing context and concerned about their resulting loss of influence. Yet they have so far failed to develop a coordinated response or to engage effectively with China regarding its impact on fragility within the region.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Emerging Markets, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: China, South Asia, Israel, and Asia

227. The global economy: Healing or still hurting?

Author:: Leo Abruzzese
Publication Date:: 06-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: After a series of setbacks, the global economy is slowly mending US economy is strengthening; star performer Jobs market is on a modest upswing Housing is bouncing back China is recovering from a slowdown Boom years are over, but so is the slump European debt crisis is stabilizing but austerity is killing the economy Euro zone remains big drag on global growth Japan is showing signs of recovery under a new government Central banks are supporting the bounce - back in a big way Don't expect a brisk recovery, though; many risks remains Debt levels still high; asset prices are volatile; tensions in Middle East, China, Kore and has stabilised in Europe, but at a low level. In Germany, manufacturing output is rising again.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:: United States and China

228. Security and Profit in China's Energy Policy: Hedging Against Risk

Author:: Øystein Tunsjø
Publication Date:: 11-2013
Content Type:: Book
Institution:: Columbia University Press
Abstract:: China has developed sophisticated hedging strategies to insure against risks in the international petroleum market. It has managed a growing net oil import gap and supply disruptions by maintaining a favorable energy mix, pursuing overseas equity oil production, building a state-owned tanker fleet and strategic petroleum reserve, establishing cross-border pipelines, and diversifying its energy resources and routes. Though it cannot be "secured," China's energy security can be "insured" by marrying government concern with commercial initiatives. This book comprehensively analyzes China's domestic, global, maritime, and continental petroleum strategies and policies, establishing a new theoretical framework that captures the interrelationship between security and profit. Arguing that hedging is central to China's energy-security policy, this volume links government concerns about security of supply to energy companies' search for profits, and by drawing important distinctions between threats and risks, peacetime and wartime contingencies, and pipeline and seaborne energy-supply routes, the study shifts scholarly focus away from securing and toward insuring an adequate oil supply and from controlling toward managing any disruptions to the sea lines of communication. The book is the most detailed and accurate look to date at how China has hedged its energy bets and how its behavior fits a hedging pattern.
Topic:: Security, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, Oil, and Maritime Commerce
Political Geography:: China and East Asia
Publication Identifier:: 9780231165082
Publication Identifier Type:: ISBN

229. Return of the Dragon: Rising China and Regional Security

Author:: Denny Roy
Publication Date:: 07-2013
Content Type:: Book
Institution:: Columbia University Press
Abstract:: Despite China's effort to maintain peace with its neighbors, its military and economic growth poses an undeniable threat. Regional states must account for a more powerful potential adversary in China, and China has become more ambitious in its efforts to control its surroundings. Historical baggage has only aggravated the situation as China believes it is reclaiming its rightful place after a time of weakness and mistreatment, and other Asia-Pacific countries remember all too well their encounter with Chinese conflict and domination. Through a careful consideration of historical factors and raw data, Denny Roy examines the benefits and consequences of a more politically, economically, and militarily potent China. Since China's intended sphere of influence encroaches on the autonomy of regional states, its attempts to increase its own security have weakened the security of its neighbors. Nevertheless, there is little incentive for Beijing to change a status quo that is mostly good for China, and the PRC thrives through its participation in the global economy and multilateral institutions. Even so, Beijing remains extremely sensitive to challenges to the Chinese Communist Party's legitimacy and believes it is entitled to exercise influence on its periphery. On these issues, nationalism trumps any reluctance to upset the international system. Diplomatic disputes regarding the islands in the South China Sea, as well as controversial relations with North Korea, continue to undermine Chinese promises of positive behavior. Roy's study reveals the dynamics defining this volatile region, in which governments pursue China as an economic partner yet fear Beijing's power to set the rules of engagement.
Topic:: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, International Trade and Finance, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: China and East Asia
Publication Identifier:: 9780231159005
Publication Identifier Type:: ISBN

230. Challenges for the Future of Chinese Economic Growth

Author:: Jane T. Haltmaier
Publication Date:: 01-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: The Chinese economy has been growing at a rapid pace for over thirty years. Most of this growth has come from higher labor productivity, while growth of employment has diminished along with a slower rate of increase in the working-age population. This paper looks at the challenges that China will face over the next two decades in maintaining its rapid pace of economic growth, especially as working-age population growth slows further and then begins to decline. Key questions include whether China will be able to continue to devote nearly half of its GDP to investment, whether such investment will become less productive as the capital-labor ratio continues to rise, whether labor participation and employment rates will fall as the population becomes less rural, and whether future shifts out of rural employment will go more toward the services rather than the manufacturing sector, where productivity is higher. In the baseline scenario economic growth falls gradually from its current pace of about 10 percent to near 6-1/2 percent by 2030. However, a combination of less optimistic, but still reasonable assumptions, results in a reduction in the growth rate to about 1-1/2 percent by 2030.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, GDP, Employment, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:: China and Asia

231. Consumption boosts China's resilience but risks of a property bust still loom

Publication Date:: 01-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: With the outlook for exports subdued and investment weak, we expect industrial output growth to slow further in 2012H1. But consumption is taking up the slack and fiscal policy is set to be supportive. As a result, we only expect a relatively modest slowing in growth in 2012 to 8.4% from 9.2% in 2011. But with house prices still falling in December, we remain concerned about the risk of a sharp slowing in the property market leading to strains on local government finances and a hard landing for growth, particularly with the external environment weak. However, central government finances are strong and fiscal transfers could provide a significant cushion in the event of a property bust.
Topic:: Communism, Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance, and Global Recession
Political Geography:: China and Israel

232. Pharmaceutical Price Regulation: Macro-Level Evidence from China between 1997 and 2008

Author:: Qiong Zhang, Binzhen Wu, and Xue Qiao
Publication Date:: 01-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: This paper uses macro-level data between 1997 and 2008 to evaluate the effects of China's pharmaceutical price regulations. We find that these regulations had short-run effects on medicine price indexes, reducing them by less than 0.5 percentage points. The effects could have been slightly reinforced when these regulations were imposed on more medicines. However, these regulations failed to reduce household health expenditures and the average profitability of the pharmaceutical industry, and firms on the break-even edge were worse off. Finally, although these regulations have no significant effects on the price of substitutes or complements for medicines, they increased expensive medicine imports.
Topic:: Economics, Health, Human Welfare, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:: China

233. Africa: open for business The potential, challenges and risks

Publication Date:: 02-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: Africa is drawing increasing attention, not only from the perspective of businesses based in China and Europe, but also from operators in Africa itself. In particular, closer economic ties between Africa and China have been covered extensively by the media recently—with fairly mixed reviews. This paper highlights the potential, challenges and risks for doing business in Africa over the next few years.
Topic:: Development, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Foreign Aid, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: Africa, China, and Europe

234. Is Chinese FDI pushing Latin America into natural resources?

Author:: Miguel Pérez Ludeña
Publication Date:: 03-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) in Latin America is a recent phenomenon. Although the China National Petroleum Corporation and other companies have been present in Peru, Ecuador and Venezuela since the early 1990s, large projects have been pursued only since 2006, following an extended period of high commodity prices. The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) estimated that there were US$ 15 billion of Chinese FDI inflows into Latin America in 2010, 90% of which were in extractive industries. This further contributed to the already high percentage of Chinese FDI flows to the region that are in natural resources. At a time of high economic growth fueled by commodity exports and strong currency appreciation (particularly in Brazil), FDI into extractive industries strengthens the region's specialization in primary products at the expense of manufacturing and other activities.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Natural Resources, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: China, Brazil, Latin America, and Peru

235. The unbalanced dragon: China's uneven provincial and regional FDI performance

Author:: Karl P. Sauvant, Chen Zhao, and Xiaoying Huo
Publication Date:: 03-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: Among developing countries, China attracts most foreign direct investment (FDI). Where is this investment located within China, what explains its distribution and what are policy implications? We used UNCTAD's FDI Performance Index to answer the first question. Although developed for countries , it can be applied to sub-national units. It uses provincial GDP to ascertain whether a given territorial unit has received FDI inflows as expected from its economic size. Standardizing the data accordingly reveals three clusters of provinces for 2007-2010 (table 1, figure 1 below): The first cluster encompasses virtually all coastal provinces: they have an index value above 1, i.e. perform better than their economic size would lead one to expect. They account for 9 of the top 11 performers of Mainland China's 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions (“provinces”). The provinces in the middle cluster underperform (index value of 1-0.5). They include 5 central provinces, but also 3 western and 2 coastal provinces. The provinces in the bottom cluster underperform significantly (index value below 0.5), comprising primarily the country's western provinces (8 out of the 10 provinces in this cluster).
Topic:: Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: China

236. Chinese Investment in Latin American Resources: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

Author:: Theodore H. Moran, Julia Muir, and Barbara Kotschwar
Publication Date:: 02-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: China's need for vast amounts of minerals to sustain its high economic growth rate has led Chinese investors to acquire stakes in natural resource companies, extend loans to mining and petroleum investors, and write long-term procurement contracts for oil and minerals in Africa, Latin America, Australia, Canada, and other resource-rich regions. These efforts to procure raw materials might be exacerbating the problems of strong demand; "locking up" natural resource supplies, gaining preferential access to available output, and extending control over the world's extractive industries. But Chinese investment need not have a zero-sum effect if Chinese procurement arrangements expand, diversify, and make more competitive the global supplier system. Previous Peterson Institute research (see Moran 2010) and new research undertaken in this paper, show that the majority of Chinese investments and procurement arrangements serve to help diversify and make more competitive the portion of the world natural resource base located in Latin America. For a more comprehensive analysis, the authors conduct a structured comparison of four Peruvian mines with foreign ownership: two Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development-based, and two Chinese. They examine what conditions or policy measures are most effective in inducing Chinese investors to adopt international industry standards and best-practices, and which are not. They distill from this case study some lessons for other countries in Latin America, Africa, and elsewhere that intend to use Chinese investment to develop their extractive sectors: first, that financial markets bring accountability; second, that the host country regulatory environment makes a significant difference; and third, that foreign investment is a catalyst for change.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:: China, Canada, Latin America, and Australia

237. To Stay Ahead of China, Stay Engaged in Asia

Author:: Michael Beckley
Publication Date:: 01-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: Despite the hype about the rise of China, current power trends favor continued U.S. dominance. National power has three main material components: wealth, innovation, and military power. Over the last twenty years, China has fallen further behind the United States in all of these areas.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Asia

238. Rising Democracies and the Arab Awakening: Implications for Global Democracy and Human Rights

Author:: Ted Piccone and Emily Alinikoff
Publication Date:: 01-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:: As the emerging global order takes shape, debate is growing more intense around the trajectory of the rising powers and what their ascendency to positions of regional and international influence means for the United States, its traditional allies, and global governance more broadly. Commentary about these rising powers— often referred to in a generic way as the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) but actually encompassing a dozen or so countries largely represented in the G-20—ranges from alarmist to sanguine. Pessimists argue that China, with its impressive economic growth and increasingly global reach, is well-positioned to challenge the United States' role of global superpower and to weaken the commitment of other rising powers, and various international organizations, to liberal values. More optimistic analysts insist that the rise of middle powers, most of which are democracies of varying stripes, bodes well for the world: millions are being lifted out of poverty, rule of law is taking hold and the international system is bound to be a more inclusive, representative one.
Topic:: Democratization, Development, Economics, Globalization, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Poverty, and Governance
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, China, India, South Africa, Brazil, and Arabia

239. When Voicelessness Meets Speechlessness – Struggling for Equity in Chinese-Ghanaian Employment Relations

Author:: Karsten Giese and Alena Thiel
Publication Date:: 05-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:: In this article Chinese-Ghanaian employment relations are analyzed using the concepts of foreignness, the psychological contract, equity, and cross-cultural communication. Based on a qualitative study conducted in Accra, Ghana, we discuss the labor market in general and introduce the conditions under which Chinese sojourners operate their family trade businesses in the city. After discussing the phenomenon of Ghanaian employment within Chinese trade companies from a theoretical perspective, we explain how Chinese employers' and Ghanaian employees' culturally based perceptions of employment relations are contradictory and prone to conflict. We then show how, under the condition of the employers' foreignness, Ghanaian employees perceive their psychological contracts as being violated and Chinese employers regard the equity of exchange relations as distorted. We discuss how Ghanaian employees cope with this situation by means of voice, silence, retreat or destruction, while Chinese employers, who lack both sufficient language skills and effective sanctions, choose to endure perceived distortions of equity and in some cases ultimately terminate employment relations when inadequate cross-cultural communication results in a failure to mediate conflicts.
Topic:: Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Labor Issues, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: Africa, China, and Ghana

240. China's Economic Restructuring: Role of Agriculture

Author:: Zhang Hongzhou
Publication Date:: 05-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: While China has achieved extraordinary economic success in the past decades, its economic structural risks have increased significantly as well. As Chinese top leaders have repeatedly emphasized, economic restructuring is a critical task facing China's economy. To restructure China's economy, the country needs to find a new engine for growth to replace the export and investment led growth model, address social inequality and protect the environment. The key approaches identified by the Chinese government include urbanization, upgrading the manufacturing sector and developing strategic industries. However, through in-depth analysis, this paper finds that the effectiveness of these measures remains in question as they fail to target at all the root causes of China's economic problems.
Topic:: Economics, Environment, Globalization, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Social Stratification
Political Geography:: China and Israel

241. America's Voluntary Standards System--A "Best Practice" Model for Innovation Policy?

Author:: Dieter Ernst
Publication Date:: 02-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: For its proponents, America's voluntary standards system is a "best practice" model for innovation policy. Foreign observers however are concerned about possible drawbacks of a standards system that is largely driven by the private sector. There are doubts, especially in Europe and China, whether the American system can balance public and private interests in times of extraordinary national and global challenges to innovation.
Topic:: Development, Globalization, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Science and Technology, Intellectual Property/Copyright, and Governance
Political Geography:: China, America, and Europe

242. China: Highlights and Key Issues

Publication Date:: 10-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: The Chinese economy expanded by 7.4% year-on-year in Q3, down from 7.6% in Q2, but stronger than we had expected. Of particular surprise was the implied quarterly growth rate; based on the seasonally adjusted data released by the NBS, the economy expanded at an annualised rate of 9.1%, the strongest since 2011Q3.
Topic:: Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:: China and Syria

243. How to Integrate Human Rights into U.S.-China Relations

Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Human Rights First
Abstract:: When to press China's leadership on human rights, how hard, and with what tools has been an ever-changing calculation, as successive U.S. administrations have tried to balance America's strategic and economic interests in the expanding U.S.-China relationship with America's leadership as an advocate for and protector of universal rights and freedoms.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States and China

244. The Emergence of China in the Middle East

Author:: James Chen
Publication Date:: 01-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: During the 9th century, Arab traders regularly plied lucrative maritime routes that connected the Persian Gulf to southern China by way of the Indian Ocean. This commercial activity, which mostly involved jade, silk, and other luxury goods, went on for centuries and became part of what is now known as the Silk Road. In some ways, the world is now witnessing a restoration of that ancient trading relationship between two civilizations—except that oil and consumer goods have replaced jade and silk.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, and Arabia

245. Freeing the Global Market: How to Boost the Economy by Curbing Regulatory Distortions

Author:: Shanker A. Singham
Publication Date:: 10-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: The U.S. economy faces major challenges competing internationally. One of the most worrisome is the growing use in China and other advanced developing countries of anticompetitive market distortions (ACMDs)—including regulatory protection that privileges specific companies—which put foreign competitors at a disadvantage. ACMDs are government actions that give certain business interests artificial competitive advantages over their rivals, be they foreign or domestic, to the detriment of consumer welfare. These market distortions are especially damaging to the industries in which the United States enjoys the greatest comparative advantages, but they are also harmful to the long-term prosperity of developing economies and cost the global economy trillions of dollars. To combat ACMDs, the conventional trade policy approach of focusing on the The U.S. economy faces major challenges competing internationally. One of the most worrisome is the growing use in China and other advanced developing countries of anticompetitive market distortions (ACMDs)—including regulatory protection that privileges specific companies—which put foreign competitors at a disadvantage.1 ACMDs are government actions that give certain business interests artificial competitive advantages over their rivals, be they foreign or domestic, to the detriment of consumer welfare. These market distortions are especially damaging to the industries in which the United States enjoys the greatest comparative advantages, but they are also harmful to the long-term prosperity of developing economies and cost the global economy trillions of dollars.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, China, India, and Brazil

246. Is China's outward investment in oil a global security concern?

Author:: Ilan Alon and Aleh Cherp
Publication Date:: 10-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: The motivations prompting China's dramatic increase in outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) are not always clear, especially regarding OFDI by state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in energy and natural resources. First, both commercial and governmental interests are intertwined, although not necessarily in lock-step. Chinese SOEs listed in the West may worry about the reputational risks to their global corporate citizenship, while government stakeholders may instead focus on diplomatic international relations. Second, subsidies for oil investments may be viewed as serving Chinese national interests and threatening the national security of the host countries. Whether China's OFDI will benefit or harm global energy security, economic development and diplomatic relations is still hotly contested.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, Oil, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: China

247. A new economic nationalism? Lessons from the PotashCorp decision in Canada

Author:: Sandy Walker
Publication Date:: 08-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: In its World Investment Report 2011, UNCTAD reported that liberalizing investment policy measures taken globally in 2010 outnumbered restrictive measures. Without the benefit of statistics, investors might have drawn the opposite conclusion, witnessing what appears to be a rising tide of national resistance to foreign takeovers: the Australian Foreign Investment Review Board's rejection of a takeover of the Australian Securities Exchange by the Singapore Exchange, Italian concern over a French company's takeover of dairy giant Parmalat and the US Government's requirement that Chinese company Huawei divest certain assets it had acquired from 3Leaf.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: United States, China, Canada, Australia, and Singapore

248. Starting anew in international investment law

Author:: M Sornarajah
Publication Date:: 07-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: The legitimacy of investment arbitration becomes increasingly questioned, with liberal states like Australia moving away from the regime. Defenders seek to ensure the survival of this regime of asymmetric investment protection, using a variety of techniques. The conservation of the gains of property protection has resulted in novel arguments relating to the existence of a global administrative law and standards of global governance. These arguments seek to preserve an approach associated with the failure of market fundamentalism and global economic crises. As long as the inequity contained in regulatory restraints of the system affected only the powerless states, it operated with vigor; but with powerful states feeling the effects of regulatory restraints of investment treaties, there has been movement away from the earlier premises of the established regime.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: China, India, and Australia

249. China: Industry Forecast

Publication Date:: 08-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: GDP is expected to rise by 7.9% in 2012 and expand by 8.7% in 2013. Over the next 10 years to 2021, GDP is predicted to grow on average by 7.8% a year. Manufacturing output growth is forecast to be higher than GDP growth over the next decade. Manufacturing output is expected to increase by 8.8% in 2012 and expand by 9.4% in 2013. Over the next 10 years to 2021, manufacturing output is expected to grow on average by 7.9% a year. As a result, the share of manufacturing output in GDP is projected to rise from 34.0% in 2011 to 35.1% by 2016 and increase to 35.6% by 2021. Over the same period, the share of service sector output in GDP is expected to expand from 41.7% in 2011 to 43.8% in 2016 and rise to 45.5% in 2021.
Topic:: Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: China and Israel

250. The U.S.-Japan Alliance: Anchoring Stability in Asia

Author:: Joseph S. Nye and Richard L. Armitage
Publication Date:: 08-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: This report on the U.S.-Japan alliance comes at a time of drift in the relationship. As leaders in both the United States and Japan face a myriad of other challenges, the health and welfare of one of the world's most important alliances is endangered. Although the arduous efforts of Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell and his colleagues in both governments have largely kept the alliance stable, today's challenges and opportunities in the region and beyond demand more. Together, we face the re-rise of China and its attendant uncertainties, North Korea with its nuclear capabilities and hostile intentions, and the promise of Asia's dynamism. Elsewhere, there are the many challenges of a globalized world and an increasingly complex security environment. A stronger and more equal alliance is required to adequately address these and other great issues of the day.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, China, Israel, Asia, and North Korea

251. The Politics of Contestation in Asia: How Japan and Pakistan Deal with their Rising Neighbors

Author:: Daniel Flemes, Georg Strüver, and Hannes Ebert
Publication Date:: 09-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:: Rising powers have attracted tremendous interest in international politics and theory. Yet the ways in which secondary powers strategically respond to regional changes in the distribution of power have been largely neglected. This article seeks to fill this gap by presenting a systematic comparative analysis of the different types of and causes of contestation strategies undertaken by secondary powers. Empirically, it focuses on two contentious regional dyads in East and South Asia, exploring how structural, behavioral, and historical factors shape the way in which Japan and Pakistan respond, respectively, to China's and India's regional power politics. The paper concludes that the explanatory power of these factors depends on the particular context: in the case of Japan, China's militarily assertive regional role has invoked the most significant strategic shifts, while in the case of Pakistani contestation, shifts in polarity have had the largest impact on the strategic approach.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Development, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Japan, China, and India

252. China's leadership: handover The changing of the guard

Publication Date:: 10-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: On November 8th this year China will begin the once-a-decade process of changing its leaders, with the launch of the 18th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). This will, by coincidence, come just two days after the US presidential elections. Both events will have momentous repercussions, both for the countries involved and for the world, but they will mark a study in contrasts. Unlike the US, China's succession battles are being waged in near secrecy, yet observers are already sure who the next president and premier will be. Less clear is what exactly China's new leadership will stand for. This report will examine their backgrounds and policy positions, asking what we can expect from the incoming administration.
Topic:: Communism, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, and Governance
Political Geography:: United States and China

253. Retail 2022: How the Economist Intelligence Unit sees the retail landscape changing over the next decade

Publication Date:: 11-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: Markets of the future—China, India, Brazil and Russia—will become the dominant retail markets l Africa, the final frontier—as BRIC opportunities diminish retailers will look to Africa as a driver of growth l Virtual marketplace— e-commerce, m-commerce and s-commerce—will transform the global retail landscape l Bricks and mortar will fight back as traditional retailers respond to change by integrating online with physical store offerings l Convenience will be king as shopping habits evolve into a multichannel approach rather than “one-stop shopping” l UK focus: polarised shopping habits could continue even when incomes recover, leading to an even greater squeeze on mid-market retail by 2022.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Science and Technology, and Communications
Political Geography:: Russia, China, United Kingdom, India, and Brazil

254. Global Technology Sourcing in China's Integrated Circuit Design Industry: A Conceptual Framework and Preliminary Findings

Author:: Barry Naughton and Dieter Ernst
Publication Date:: 08-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: The paper examines the role of global technology sourcing, and its drivers and impacts in China's integrated circuit (IC) design industry. IC design is one of the priority targets of China's innovation policy, as codified especially in the ―Strategic Emerging Industries‖ initiative. At the same time, however, China's IC design industry is deeply integrated into the vertically disintegrated global semiconductor industry, through markets, investment and technology. The paper highlights a fundamental challenge for China's innovation strategy: How can China reconcile its primary objective of strengthening indigenous innovation with the benefits that it could reap from its deep integration into international trade and into global networks of production and innovation?
Topic:: Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: China and Israel

255. A Policy Mismatch: Canada and the United States in the Asia-Pacific Region

Author:: James Manicom
Publication Date:: 11-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: The United States and Canada have simultaneously re- invigorated their diplomatic and military postures toward the Asia-Pacific region. As two of the world's closest allies, it is worth exploring the possible synergies and tensions between their efforts to identify areas of possible policy coordination. Canada has considerable assets that could support US diplomacy in the region, including the legacy of its good offices and its close ties with the US military; however, these assets are outweighed by three liabilities. First, Canada's diplomacy to the Asia-Pacific is driven by its desire to diversify away from the US market. Although relatively innocuous in isolation, the politics of this shift, driven by growing concern in Canada about whether the United States remains a reliable market for energy exports, adds a layer of complexity. Second, Canada's closer economic ties with China could undermine its willingness to support the United States on tough regional security issues in the Asia-Pacific. Third, and related, Canadian silence about navigational freedoms, the primary security issue between the United States and China in East Asia, has not gone unnoticed. This paper argues that, on balance, Canada may not be an ideal Pacific partner for the United States.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States, China, Canada, East Asia, Asia, Australia/Pacific, and Asia-Pacific

256. South China Sea: Core Interest Extraordinaire

Author:: Martin A Sebastian
Publication Date:: 07-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Maritime Institute of Malaysia
Abstract:: China's powerful Central Military Commission has approved the formal establishment of a military garrison for the disputed South China Sea, the state media has announced, a move which could further boost tensions in already fractious region. This news comes after China established the city of Sansha, on 21 June as a rhetoric to Vietnam's Maritime Law announcement on the same day. Vietnam's Maritime Law which reportedly takes effect early 2013, forms a legal framework to serve the utilisation, management and protection of Vietnam's sea and islands, including the Paracels and Spratlys, as well as the development of sea-borne economy, so as to facilitate it's international integration and boost cooperation with other countries.
Topic:: Development, International Law, International Trade and Finance, Maritime Commerce, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:: China

257. Monetary Policy and Banking Supervision: Coordination instead of separation

Author:: Daniel Gros and Thorsten Beck
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: The June 2012 European Council decided that the legal basis for the 'Single Supervisory Mechanism' should be Article 127(6) of the Treaty, and that the SSM should 'involve' the ECB. This implies only that supervision should be concentrated within the ECB. In the policy discussion it is, however, generally taken for granted that there should be 'Chinese walls' between the supervisory and monetary policy arms of the ECB. The current legislative proposal is explicit on this account.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and Governance
Political Geography:: China and Europe

258. US Tire Tariffs: Saving Few Jobs at High Cost

Author:: Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Sean Lowry
Publication Date:: 04-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: In his 2012 State of the Union address, President Obama claimed that "over a thousand Americans are working today because we stopped a surge in Chinese tires." The tire tariff case, decided by the president in September 2009, exemplifies his efforts to get China to "play by the rules" and serves as a plank in his larger platform of insourcing jobs to America.
Topic:: Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Governance
Political Geography:: United States, China, and America

259. Projecting China's Current Account Surplus

Author:: William R. Cline
Publication Date:: 04-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: For several years China has run persistent current account surpluses that have been widely seen as the most serious single source of global imbalances on the surplus side, and mirrored by persistent systemically large US current account deficits on the other side. In recent years, however, both imbalances have shown moderation (figure 1). China's surpluses have posed questions of international policy rules, because they have reflected in part an unwillingness to allow the exchange rate to appreciate sufficiently to act as an effective equilibrating mechanism. Exchange rate intervention resulted in a massive buildup of international reserves, which rose from $615 billion at the end of 2004 to $3.2 trillion at the end of 2011 (IMF 2012a).
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, Foreign Exchange, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Israel

260. Choice and Coercion in East Asian Exchange Rate Regimes

Author:: C. Randall Henning
Publication Date:: 09-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: This paper examines the exchange rate regimes of East Asian countries since the initial shift by China to a controlled appreciation in July 2005, testing econometrically the weights of key currencies in the implicit baskets that appear to be targeted by East Asian monetary authorities. It finds, first, that Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore and the Philippines have formed a loose but effective “renminbi bloc” with China, and that South Korea has participated tentatively since the global financial crisis. Second, the emergence of the renminbi bloc in terms of the exchange rate has been facilitated by the continued dominance of the US dollar as a trade, investment, and reserve currency. Third, exchange rate stabilization is explained by the economic strategies of these countries, which rely heavily on export development and financial repression, and the economic rise of China. Fourth, analysts should specify the exchange rate preferences of these emerging market countries carefully before drawing inferences about Chinese influence within the region.
Topic:: Development, Emerging Markets, Foreign Exchange, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: China, Malaysia, Asia, South Korea, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand

261. Networks, Trust, and Trade: The Microeconomics of China–North Korea Integration

Author:: Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland
Publication Date:: 05-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: A central hope of engagement with North Korea is that increased cross-border exchange will encourage the strengthening of institutions, and eventually, a moderation of the country's foreign policy. An unprecedented survey of Chinese enterprises operating in North Korea reveals that trade is largely dominated by state entities on the North Korean side, although the authors cannot rule out de facto privatization of exchange. Little trust is evident beyond the relationships among Chinese and North Korean state-owned enterprises. Formal networks and dispute settlement mechanisms are weak and do not appear to have consequences for relational contracting. Rather, firms rely on personal ties for identifying counterparties and resolving disputes. The weakness of formal institutions implies that the growth in exchange does not conform with the expectations of the engagement model and may prove self-limiting. The results also cast doubt that integration between China and North Korea, at least as it is currently proceeding, will foster reform and opening.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: China, Israel, and North Korea

262. Untying the land knot: Turning investment challenges into opportunities for all citizens

Author:: Xiaofang Shen
Publication Date:: 11-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: China, 1980s. Newly embarked on its economic transformation, China opened to foreign direct investment (FDI) to obtain capital, technology and access to world markets. Investors hesitated, however, since national law prohibited access to state-owned land. In reaction, the government introduced a long-term lease system, first tested in special economic zones and later applied across the country. This approach enabled China's phenomenal success in attracting FDI in the years to come; it also paved the way for 500 million urban citizens to gain property rights, which in turn inspired the rural population to ask for the same rights today.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: China

263. China's regional security relations and interaction with the U.S.: trends, challenges and possible scenarios

Author:: Frans-Paul van der Putten
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: This paper provides a brief overview of current developments relevant to Sino-U.S. security relations, and to China's involvement in regional security issues, in East and South-East Asia. The most fundamental challenge with regard to regional stability is how the roles of China and the United States in the Asia Pacific can be reconciled. While the U.S. is concerned that a rising China will eventually push American influence out of East and South-East Asia, China in turn fears that the U.S. will try to retain its leadership role by exploiting and amplifying tensions between the Chinese and their neighbours. Currently the Sino-U.S. rivalry is threatening unity within ASEAN, which poses an immediate risk for regional stability. A substantial improvement in regional stability – whether in South-East or in East Asia – is unlikely unless the U.S. and China manage to stabilise their bilateral relationship. It is important for all interested parties, inside Asia but also outside (including in Europe), to contribute to a move away from a scenario in which regional stability continues to deteriorate, and in the direction of a scenario that involves a cooperative arrangement between China and the U.S. in a stable multilateral setting.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, and Hegemony
Political Geography:: United States, China, Israel, East Asia, Australia/Pacific, and Southeast Asia

264. A Rapidly Changing Energy World, Or Perhaps Not

Author:: Irwin M. Stelzer
Publication Date:: 06-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: Slow growth here and in China, and recession in Europe are reducing demand for oil. Inventories in the U.S. are at a 22-year high. The Federal Reserve Board's QEs that pumped paper money into the economy and drove up the nominal price of oil have come to an end. And the twelve OPEC oil cartelists, who between them supply 40% of the world's oil, are producing 1.6 million barrels in excess of the agreed daily quota of 30 million barrels. As a result, U.S. benchmark crude oil prices are now closer to $80 per barrel than to the $110 they reached only four months ago.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Oil
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Europe

265. Economic patriotism: Dealing with Chinese direct investment in the United States

Author:: Sophie Meunier
Publication Date:: 05-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: China is investing throughout the world, in industries from automobiles to zinc. In the US, Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) accounted for only 0.25% of total FDI stock in 2010,but it is likely to increase as China diversifies its holdings and seeks to obtain technology, managerial know-how and easier access to US consumers. As these investments multiply, we expect a few cases to attract negative attention in the media and political arena. Chinese companies are predominately state-controlled, raising the specter that they act to fulfill strategic, rather than profit maximizing, goals. China is also an ideological rival, causing irrational concern that Chinese investment in the US may act as a Trojan Horse of Chinese values and politics --fueled by rational concerns about subsidies, piracy, and economic espionage.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: United States and China

266. Rising Tensions Over China's Monopoly on Rare Earths?

Author:: Jane Nakano
Publication Date:: 05-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: The United States, Japan, and the European Union—the three key consumers of Chinese rare earth materials—formally complained to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in March about Chinese restrictions on its rare earth exports. Several weeks later, China announced the establishment of a 150-plus member association with the official aim of promoting sustainable development within this sector. Some analysts wonder if this is part of a Chinese plan to circumvent international complaints by instituting an oligopolistic arrangement to control its rare earth exports. Others ask if this could be another step in an escalating dispute with China over the global supply of rare earth materials.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, China, and Europe

267. False Hopes for Chinese Economic "Integration"

Author:: John Lee
Publication Date:: 04-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: In a recent online article in Foreignpolicy.com, regular columnist and head of the Economic Strategy Institute, Clyde Prestowitz, argued that the next president of the World Bank should be Zhou Xiaochuan, Chairman of the People's Bank of China. For Prestowitz, it was not just Zhou's excellent credentials that made him ideal for the position, but also the fact that he is Chinese. China is accurately accused of “gaming” the global economic liberal order through its currency policies, restricted market access for outside firms and governments, and internal intervention in the economy to the detriment of foreign firms. But Prestowitz believes that such an appointment would significantly encourage China to behave as a “responsible stakeholder.” Behind this thinking is the argument that the more power, prestige, and authority China accumulates within the existing order, the more liberal Chinese economic policies will become.
Topic:: Democratization, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:: China

268. US Agricultural Exports to ASEAN Grow - But Face Competition

Author:: Michael McConnell
Publication Date:: 03-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: ASEAN countries have long been an important international market for US agricultural exports. The United States, in 2011, exported almost $9.6 billion of agricultural products to ASEAN, making it the sixth-largest export destination for US farmers, ranchers, and agribusinesses—behind Japan ($14 billion) and just behind the European Union ($9.6 billion), but well ahead of South Korea ($7 billion). Moreover, the value of agricultural trade between the United States and ASEAN almost doubled between 2007 and 2011, with the top four ASEAN markets in 2011 for the United States being Indonesia ($2.8 billion), the Philippines ($2.1 billion), Vietnam ($1.7 billion), and Thailand ($1.3 billion). With a population of 614 million and strong economic growth, it is expected that ASEAN will continue to be an important market for US agricultural products. However, the United States is likely to face increasing competition, particularly from China, Australia, and New Zealand, all of which have free trade agreements (FTAs) with ASEAN.
Topic:: Agriculture, Demographics, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Food
Political Geography:: United States, China, Europe, East Asia, South Korea, Australia, Southeast Asia, and New Zealand

269. U.S.-China Competition in Asia: Legacies Help America

Author:: Robert Sutter
Publication Date:: 02-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: As Sino-American competition for influence enters a new stage with the Obama administration's re-engagement with Asia, each power's legacies in the region add to economic, military and diplomatic factors determining which power will be more successful in the competition. How the United States and China deal with their respective histories in regional affairs and the role of their non-government relations with the Asia- Pacific represent important legacies that on balance favor the United States.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States, China, America, and Asia

270. A greener shade of grey: A special report on renewable energy in China

Publication Date:: 05-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: Fossil fuels will continue to dominate China's energy mix, although renewable energy will carve out a bigger role. The large market for clean technology that this provides will give succour to firms in the sector—those, that is, that are able to survive their present difficulties.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, International Trade and Finance, Oil, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:: China

271. Watching a dragon's egg hatch: The makings of a Sinocentric world?

Author:: Jyrki Kallio
Publication Date:: 04-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: As China's hard power is growing, the Party-state is keen to construct a new narrative which legitimizes China's position as a world leader also from the soft power perspective. It has even been suggested that a Chinese international relations theory or model will inevitably emerge as a consequence of China's growing role on the world stage on the one hand and the rise of traditional values in China on the other.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Power Politics, and Culture
Political Geography:: China and Israel

272. All Roads Lead to the Indian Ocean

Author:: Sumathy Permal
Publication Date:: 01-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Maritime Institute of Malaysia
Abstract:: The Indian Ocean (IO) is the world’s third largest ocean with an area of 73.5 million sq. km or 28.5 million sq. miles. It is strategically located adjacent to Asia in the North, Australia to the East, Antarctica to the South, and Africa to the West. IO forms two large indentations in South Asia, the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. The ocean can be accessed through several chokepoints i.e., from the West via Cape of Good Hope and the Straits of Madagascar, from the North via the Bab el-Mandeb at the end of the Red Sea; the Sunda and Lombok-Straits and the Ombai-Wetar-Straits and the Straits of Hormuz at the exit of the Persian Gulf, from the East via the Straits of Malacca and, by way of geographical extension, to the South China Sea.
Topic:: Security, International Law, International Trade and Finance, and Maritime Commerce
Political Geography:: Africa, China, Malaysia, Asia, Arabia, and Kobani

273. America's Voluntary Standards System—A "Best Practice" Model for Innovation Policy?

Author:: Dieter Ernst
Publication Date:: 02-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: For its proponents, America's voluntary standards system is a "best practice" model for innovation policy. Foreign observers however are concerned about possible drawbacks of a standards system that is largely driven by the private sector. There are doubts, especially in Europe and China, whether the American system can balance public and private interests in times of extraordinary national and global challenges to innovation.
Topic:: Democratization, Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Governance
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Europe

274. Networks, Trust, and Trade: The Microeconomics of China-North Korea Integration

Author:: Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland
Publication Date:: 06-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: A central hope of engagement with North Korea is that increased cross-border exchange will encourage the strengthening of institutions, and eventually, a moderation of the country's foreign policy. An unprecedented survey of Chinese enterprises operating in North Korea reveals that trade is largely dominated by state entities on the North Korean side, although we cannot rule out de facto privatization of exchange. Little trust is evident beyond the relationships among Chinese and North Korean state-owned enterprises. Formal networks and dispute settlement mechanisms are weak and do not appear to have consequences for relational contracting. Rather, firms rely on personal ties for identifying counterparties and resolving disputes. The weakness of formal institutions implies that the growth in exchange does not conform with the expectations of the engagement model and may prove self-limiting. The results also cast doubt that integration between China and North Korea, at least as it is currently proceeding, will foster reform and opening.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: China, Israel, and North Korea

275. EIU: Global outlook summary

Publication Date:: 06-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: The global economy remains in precarious shape. Europe's debt crisis rages on, and although the euro appears to have survived its most recent test in the form of the Greek election on June 17th, austerity and financial-market uncertainty are depressing economic activity in Europe and, by extension, in much of the rest of the world. The Economist Intelligence Unit continues to expect global GDP growth to slow in 2012, and while our forecasts for the G3 economies—the US, euro zone and China—are essentially unchanged this month, we have cut our projections for Brazil and India.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: United States, China, Europe, India, and Brazil

276. A Flop and a Debacle: Inside the IMF's Global Rebalancing Acts

Author:: Paul Blustein
Publication Date:: 06-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: Cooperation among major countries to shrink global imbalances in trade and capital flows is highly desirable for the sake of promoting a sustainable recovery from the financial crisis that erupted in 2008. The story that unfolds in this paper does not bode well for such cooperation. It is a detailed account of the initiatives, led by the IMF, to address imbalances prior to the 2008 global financial crisis.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and International Monetary Fund
Political Geography:: China

277. Perspectives on the G20: The Los Cabos Summit and Beyond

Author:: James A. Haley
Publication Date:: 06-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: The G20 leaders meeting in Los Cabos confront a number of challenges. Most prominent among these is the state of the global economy, which remains dangerously unbalanced, and in which the balance of risks is clearly weighted on the downside. These risks emanate from several sources.
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: China

278. Bahrain and the global balance of power after the Arab Spring

Author:: Lars Erslev Andersen
Publication Date:: 06-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: The global balance of power is changing, and the role of the US as the only superpower is being challenged by emerging new powers and a still more powerful China. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the Persian Gulf. This Working Paper by DIIS researcher Lars Erslev Andersen argues that if we are fully to understand the developments in the Persian Gulf we need to analyze the Persian Gulf as a regional security complex in its own right. The argument is developed empirically with reference to the case of Bahrain.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, International Affairs, and Power Politics
Political Geography:: United States, China, Middle East, Arabia, and Bahrain

279. Malaysia's China Policy in the Post-Mahathir Era: A Neoclassical Realist Explanation

Author:: KUIK Cheng-Chwee
Publication Date:: 07-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Malaysia's China policy in the post-Cold War era – as an instance of a smaller state's strategy toward a proximate and rising great power – has been characterized by three patterns. First, there was a shift from hostility and guarded rapprochement during the Cold War to cordiality and maturing partnership in the post-Cold War era. Second, despite the overall positive development, Malaysia's China policy has remained, in essence, a hedging approach that is driven by both a pragmatic desire to maximize benefits from a closer relationship with the neighboring giant and a contingent calculation to guard against any long-term strategic risks in the uncertain regional environment. Third, such a two-pronged approach, which took shape since the 1990s under Mahathir Mohamad, has endured beyond the Mahathir era. Indeed, under his successors Abdullah Ahmad Badawi and Najib Tun Razak, Malaysia has continued to pursue a policy of dualism vis-à-vis China. What explains the enduring continuity of the hedging approach in Malaysia's China policy? This paper adopts a neoclassical realist perspective, arguing that the continuity is attributed to both structural and domestic factors. Domestically, the changing bases of political legitimation in the multi-ethnic country, which highlight the increasing salience of economic performance and political inclusiveness as key sources of moral authority to the UMNO-led coalition government, have necessitated the succeeding leaders to continue pursuing a pragmatic policy aimed at ensuring a stable and productive relationship with China, not least to gain from the steadily growing bilateral trade and the giant's growing outward investment. Structurally, Malaysia's position as a smaller state has compelled it to be constantly vigilant about the uncertainty of state intentions and inter-great power relations, which in turn demands it adopts contingent measures to hedge against longer-term risks. It is such structural and domestic determinants that have fundamentally shaped the country's policy towards China in general and the South China Sea issue in particular, which characteristically bears the mark of a delicate dualism, i.e. an explicit preference for engaging China through bilateral and multilateral diplomacy, but one that is backed by a low-key practice of maintaining and strengthening its traditional military links with its Western security partners.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Cold War, Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: China, Malaysia, and Israel

280. The concept of "rising powers"

Author:: Pinar Tank
Publication Date:: 06-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: The end of the cold war and the bipolar world order heralded an era of transition for global governance. Twenty years on there is still no consensus on the status of the distribution and exercise of power in today's multipolar world. What is clear, however, is the rise of new powers seeking a global political role comparable with their increased economic clout. Often referred to as the BRICS – Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa – to which second-tier powers such as Indonesia, Turkey and Mexico can be added, these states are called “rising powers” or “new powers” because of their rapid economic development, and expanding political and cultural influence.
Topic:: Cold War, Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Governance
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, China, India, and Brazil

281. A Case Study of China’s Membership of the World Trade Organization: Implications on Sovereignty

Author:: Binneh S. Minteh
Publication Date:: 07-2012
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: Since becoming a member of the World Trade Organization, China embarked on sever- al commitments to become a key player on the international economic stage. This pa- per is a case study of China’s membership of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the implications on Chinese sovereignty. Theorizing China’s historical evolution amid concerns of sovereignty, the paper looks at China’s Regime Commitment and Compli- ance in the WTO, major Compliance and Commitment Concerns with China in the Or- ganization. China may have complied with some of its commitments particularly in the service area. The paper distinctively concludes that China’s membership of the organi- zation has forced it to share power with other actor whilst protecting the interest of its citizens on the global stage.
Topic:: Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Sovereignty, World Trade Organization, and Trade
Political Geography:: China and Asia

282. A China Round of Multilateral Trade Negotiations

Author:: Arvind Subramanian and Aaditya Mattoo
Publication Date:: 12-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Until recently, the World Trade Organization (WTO) has been an effective framework for cooperation because it has continually adapted to changing economic realities. The current Doha Agenda is an aberration because it does not reflect one of the biggest shifts in the international economic and trading system: the rise of China. Even though China will have a stake in maintaining trade openness, an initiative that builds on but redefines the Doha Agenda would anchor China more fully in the multilateral trading system. Such an initiative would have two pillars. First, a new negotiating agenda that would include the major issues of interest to China and its trading partners, and thus unleash the powerful reciprocal liberalization mechanism that has driven the WTO process to previous successes. Second, new restraints on bilateralism and regionalism that would help preserve incentives for maintaining the current broad non-discriminatory trading order.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:: China and Israel

283. Do Chinese Really Save Too Much? Aspects from Total Factor Productivity Growth in China since 1952

Author:: Qiong Zhang and Chong-En Bai
Publication Date:: 12-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: China's economic growth over the past three decades is unprecedented. Although this growth is commonly attributed to a high domestic savings rate among “thrifty” Chinese, savings alone cannot promote economic growth unless productivity has continuously grown for such a long period. This article uses a one-sector, neoclassical growth model to calibrate the economy to Chinese data since 1952 and finds that measuring changes in total factor productivity between 1952 and 2005 can well capture the secular movements in the Chinese savings rate. Far from supporting the widespread belief that China's savings rate is too high, this article argues that even thrifty Chinese “under-saved” for most of the years during this period; furthermore, the fiscal reforms of 1983 and 1985 further suppressed saving behavior, especially China's economic growth over the past three decades is unprecedented. Although this growth is commonly attributed to a high domestic savings rate among “thrifty” Chinese, savings alone cannot promote economic growth unless productivity has continuously grown for such a long period. This article uses a one-sector, neoclassical growth model to calibrate the economy to Chinese data since 1952 and finds that measuring changes in total factor productivity between 1952 and 2005 can well capture the secular movements in the Chinese savings rate. Far from supporting the widespread belief that China's savings rate is too high, this article argues that even thrifty Chinese “under-saved” for most of the years during this period; furthermore, the fiscal reforms of 1983 and 1985 further suppressed saving behavior, especially when initially implemented. In presenting such findings, this article at least partly solves the so-called “Chinese savings puzzle.”
Topic:: Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:: China

284. Adjusting to China: A Challenge to the U.S. Manufacturing Sector

Author:: Martin Neil Baily
Publication Date:: 01-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Brookings Institution
Abstract:: During an "exit interview" with the Wall Street Journal, departing National Economic Council Director Lawrence Summers argued that history would judge the United States based on how well we adjust to China's emergence as a great power, economically and politically. In the face of China's progress, America's manufacturing sector faces major challenges in becoming and remaining competitive and our choice of national economic policies will affect how well we meet those challenges. It is essential that the U.S. trade deficit not balloon as the economy recovers. There is scope to expand our exports in services and agriculture, but improving the competitiveness of U.S. manufacturing is vital.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States, China, and America

285. Security developments in East Asia: what implications for the EU?

Author:: Nicola Casarini
Publication Date:: 02-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:: East Asia is home to some of the most important trading partners of the Union. China is foremost among these, ranking second only to the US - in 2009, EU-China trade totalled a massive €296 billion - while the EU is China's most important trading partner. Japan is the sixth-largest trade partner of the EU - in 2009, EU-Japan trade was almost €92 billion. South Korea is the EU's eighth-largest trade partner and the EU has become South Korea's second largest export destination - total trade in 2009 was above €53 billion. Furthermore, on 6 October 2010 the EU and South Korea signed a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) which is the most ambitious bilateral trade agreement ever negotiated by the EU, and the first with an Asian country.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Japan, China, Europe, Israel, Asia, and South Korea

286. Growth and Recovery in a Time of Default: Lessons from the Role of the Urban Sector in Argentina

Author:: Michael Cohen
Publication Date:: 03-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: International narratives on Argentina's recovery from the crisis of 2001-02 tend to emphasize the role of rising commodity prices and growing demand from China. Argentina is said to have been 'lucky', saved by global demand for its agricultural exports. The international narrative has also been used by local agricultural exporters to justify their objections against higher export taxes during periods of high commodity prices. These narratives are not correct. Data on the country's recovery show that it was not led by agricultural exports but was fuelled by urban demand and production. When the Convertibility period ended and the peso was devalued in 2002, price increases for imports stimulated the production of domestic goods and services for consumers. This production in turn generated multiplier effects which supported small and medium-sized firms and helped to create many new jobs. This later produced a revival of the construction and then the manufacturing sectors as well.
Topic:: Agriculture, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: China, Argentina, and Latin America

287. Turkey and Taiwan: The Relationship Seeking Its Ground

Author:: Selçuk Çolakoglu and Arzu Güler
Publication Date:: 01-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Strategic Research Organization (USAK)
Abstract:: In the pre-1971 period, "One China" for Turkey was the Republic of China in Taiwan and the two countries were in cooperation against communist expansion. However, in 1971, though being reluctant for the expulsion of Taiwan from the United Nations, Turkey recognized People's Republic of China as the sole legal representative of China and pursued the "One China" policy in that respect. Thus, in the post-1971 period, Turkey's relations with Taiwan have continued only in terms of economy, trade and culture without recognizing it as an independent political unit. Beginning from early 1990s, Turkey began to take initiatives to increase its trade cooperation with Taiwan.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, and Culture
Political Geography:: China, Turkey, Taiwan, Asia, and United Nations

288. Toward Greater Pragmatism? China\'s Approach to Innovation and Standardization

Author:: Dieter Ernst
Publication Date:: 08-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
Abstract:: China\'s innovation policy and its perceived threat to American innovation and competitiveness is a hot topic in U.S.-China economic relations. The role of standardization, together with intellectual property rights and government procurement, are at the center of this conflict. Fundamental differences in their levels of development and economic institutions lead to quite different approaches to standards and innovation policy by the two countries. China\'s strategy of pursuing indigenous innovation based on local standards faces internal challenges in trying to bring together a diverse group of stakeholders with conflicting interests, as well as external pressures to adopt international standards. Enhanced cooperation on standards and innovation policies should be possible, once the United States and China accept that, while their economic and innovation systems are different, they are deeply interdependent. Both sides would benefit, creating new Chinese markets for American firms and easing technology licensing restrictions for Chinese firms.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Science and Technology, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States, China, America, Asia, and North America

289. China in the Pacific: the new banker in town

Author:: Fergus Hanson and Mary Fifita
Publication Date:: 04-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: What is the problem? China is now one of the Pacific\'s major donors. An analysis of its aid program in the region from 2005 to 2009 suggests it is reducing the grant component of its aid and increasing the soft loan proportion. China has pledged over $US 600 million to the Pacific since 2005 and debt burdening will become increasingly pressing as Chinese loans accumulate and the five-year grace periods expire. There appears to have been limited progress improving transparency.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Australia/Pacific

290. The Elephant in the "Green Room": China and the Doha Round

Author:: Arvind Subramanian, Aaditya Mattoo, and Francis Ng
Publication Date:: 05-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The puzzle about the Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations in the World Trade Organization (WTO) is not why it is on life support now but how it has survived as a viable multilateral initiative for so long. From the very beginning, it was clear that the Round suffered from a lack of private-sector interest, the engine that had driven previous rounds of successful trade negotiations. At most, Doha promised to deliver some security of access for unilateral liberalization previously undertaken by countries and some modest incremental market opening (Martin and Mattoo 2009; Hufbauer, Schott, and Wong 2010). That the Round had much to be modest about was reflected in the failure of even antiglobalization protesters to show up for the more recent meetings of the Doha Round.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:: China

291. Getting Surplus Countries to Adjust

Author:: John Williamson
Publication Date:: 01-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The world has witnessed two distinct attempts to build a multilateral mechanism to discipline surplus countries that declined to adjust their surpluses, and several proposals are currently on the table to do the same. On the two previous occasions the major surplus country of the day defeated attempts to create such a mechanism, and today China (not to mention Japan or Germany) exhibits no enthusiasm for the idea. Despite the importance of the issue, there has been remarkably little discussion of these proposals.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, International Monetary Fund, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:: Japan, China, and Germany

292. Who Captures Value in Global Supply Chains?

Author:: Jyrki Ali-Yrkkö, Petri Rouvinen, Timo Seppälä, and Pekka Ylä-Anttila
Publication Date:: 02-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
Abstract:: Available statistics tell us little about the economic consequences of increasing global dispersion of production processes. In order to shed light on the issue, we perform grass roots detective work to uncover the geography of value added in the case of a Nokia N95 smartphone circa 2007. The phone was assembled in Finland and China. In the case when the device was assembled and sold in Europe, the value-added share of Europe (EU-27) rose to 68%. Even in the case when it was assembled in China and sold in the United States, Europe captured as much as 51% of the value added, despite of the fact that it had rather little role in supplying the physical components. Our analysis illustrates that international trade statistics can be misleading; the capture of value added is largely detached from the physical goods flows. It is rather services and other intangible aspects of the supply chain that dominate. While final assembly – commanding 2% of the value added in our case – has increasingly moved offshore, the developed countries continue to capture most of the value added generated by global supply chains.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and Finland

293. Global Brazil and U.S.-Brazil Relations

Author:: Samuel W. Bodman, James D. Wolfensohn, and Julia E. Sweig
Publication Date:: 07-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: Brazil has transcended its status as the largest and most resource-rich country in Latin America to now be counted among the world's pivotal powers. Brazil is not a conventional military power, it does not rival China or India in population or economic size, and it cannot match the geopolitical history of Russia. Still, how Brazil defines and projects its interests, a still-evolving process, is critical to understanding the character of the new multipolar and unpredictable global order.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Russia, China, India, Brazil, and Latin America

294. The EU and China's engagement in Africa: the dilemma of socialisation

Author:: Liu Lirong
Publication Date:: 07-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:: China's engagement in Africa has obliged the EU to re-evaluate its own relationship with Africa. Since 2008, in an attempt to resolve the conflicts of norms and interests, the EU has proposed establishing a trilateral dialogue and cooperation mechanism between the EU, China and Africa, which so far has not yielded any substantial results. The differences between China's and the EU's Africa policies are mainly visible in two areas: aid and security. The contradiction between their respective aid policies lies in China's 'no-strings-attached aid' versus European 'conditionality' or emphasis on 'fundamental principles'. The contradiction between their security approaches in Africa lies in China's non-interference policy and the European concept of human security. Promoting common normative values and principles is at the core of the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP), which is important for the EU's self-construction at present. China's non-interference policy is related to its domestic security and stability and in this context it engages in its own rhetoric. In matters of principle it is difficult for both sides to make compromises or accept limitations imposed by the other.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: Africa, China, and Europe

295. China and the United States: Core Interests, Common Interests, and Partnership

Author:: Wu Xinbo
Publication Date:: 06-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: In an era of increased economic interdependence and shared security issues, it is vital that China and the United States become genuine partners, based not on shared ideology or traditional geopolitical interests, but on the needs of global governance. This, however, requires both countries to respect the other's legitimate core interests; if they do not, the resulting distrust and misinterpretation of intentions make cooperation less likely. To date, China has emphasized protection of its core interests, while the United States has emphasized developing areas of common interest while maintaining its expansive approach to foreign policy. This difference in emphasis has set up both areas of friction and possibilities for greater interaction. China's interests in Taiwan, Tibet, and Xinjiang lies at the heart of its national security concerns and their management is considered fundamental to the country's survival and development. As China has declared, continuing U.S. involvement with these issues is viewed as a challenge to China's core interests. If the United States eases its policies toward China's core interests, this could, in turn, encourage China to respect U.S. core interests and foster cooperation as China's material power and international influence are both growing. Developing common interests, meanwhile, can create more momentum for the two countries to manage and resolve their differences. Potential areas for successful cooperation include building a permanent peace mechanism on the Korean Peninsula; helping to secure strong, sustainable, and balanced global economic growth; and bringing about a global arrangement on creating an international environmental regime.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States, China, Taiwan, and Sinai Peninsula

296. Looking for Help: Will Rising Democracies Become International Democracy Supporters?

Author:: Thomas Carothers and Richard Youngs
Publication Date:: 06-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The emergence of a multipolar world gives Western democracy advocates cause for both optimism and anxiety. China's success sparks fears of the spread of an autocratic development model. Yet democratic states such as Brazil, Indonesia, India, South Africa, and Turkey are also gaining ground. These countries serve as powerful examples of the universal appeal of democracy and possess unique experiences with democratization. The United States and Europe understandably hope that rising democracies will use their growing prominence to defend democratic values abroad, potentially revitalizing international democracy support.
Topic:: Democratization, Development, Human Rights, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States, China, Indonesia, Turkey, India, South Africa, and Brazil

297. Foreign Manufacturing Multinationals and the Transformation of the Chinese Economy: New Measurements, New Perspectives

Author:: Theodore H. Moran
Publication Date:: 04-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: What is the relationship between foreign manufacturing multinational corporations (MNCs) and the expansion of indigenous technological and managerial technological capabilities among Chinese firms? China has been remarkably successful in designing industrial policies, joint venture requirements, and technology transfer pressures to use FDI to create indigenous national champions in a handful of prominent sectors: high speed rail transport, information technology, auto assembly, and an emerging civil aviation sector. But what is striking in the aggregate data is how relatively thin the layer of horizontal and vertical spillovers from foreign manufacturing multinationals to indigenous Chinese firms has proven to be. Despite the large size of manufacturing FDI inflows, the impact of multinational corporate investment in China has been largely confined to building plants that incorporate capital, technology, and managerial expertise controlled by the foreigner. As the skill-intensity of exports increases, the percentage of the value of the final product that derives from imported components rises sharply. China has remained a low value-added assembler of more sophisticated inputs imported from abroad—a “workbench” economy. Where do the gains from FDI in China end up? While manufacturing MNCs may build plants in China, the largest impact from deployment of worldwide earnings is to bolster production, employment, R, and local purchases in their home markets. For the United States the most recent data show that US-headquartered MNCs have 70 percent of their operations, make 89 percent of their purchases, spend 87 percent of their R dollars, and locate more than half of their workforce within the US economy—this is where most of the earnings from FDI in China are delivered.
Topic:: Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Israel

298. Managing Instability on China's Periphery

Author:: Daniel Markey, Paul B. Stares, Evan A. Feigenbaum, Scott A. Snyder, John W. Vessey, and Joshua Kurlantzick
Publication Date:: 08-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: If past experience is any guide, the United States and China will find themselves embroiled in a serious crisis at some point in the future. Such crises have occurred with some regularity in recent years, and often with little or no warning. Relatively recent examples include the Taiwan Strait crisis of 1996, the accidental bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade in 1999, and the EP-3 reconnaissance plane incident in 2001, as well as several minor naval skirmishes since then. The ensuing tension has typically dissipated without major or lasting harm to U.S.-China relations. With China's rise as a global power, however, the next major crisis is likely to be freighted with greater significance for the relationship than in previous instances. Policymakers in both Washington and Beijing, not to mention their respective publics, have become more sensitive to each other's moves and intentions as the balance of power has shifted in recent years. As anxieties and uncertainties have grown, the level of mutual trust has inevitably diminished. How the two countries manage a future crisis or string of crises, therefore, could have profound and prolonged consequences for the U.S.-China relationship. Given the importance of this relationship to not only the future evolution of the Asia-Pacific region but also to the management of a host of international challenges, the stakes could not be higher.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States, China, Israel, and Asia

299. Human resources in China Prepare for opportunity

Publication Date:: 09-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: Foreign companies continue to be attracted by the opportunities offered by China's large and rapidly growing economy. China has a population of over 1.3bn, and the size of the economy is likely to grow to just under US$13trn a year at market exchange rates by 2015. Although GDP per head will still be relatively low by the end of the forecast period, at just under US$10,000 a year, this will represent a substantial improvement from just under US$4,500 in 2010. Significant regional disparities within China will persist. The provinces of the eastern seaboard enjoy standards of living well above the national average. However, there are also markets to be found in inland China, where many large cities are located. To some extent, the size of the population and the pace of economic growth belie the challenges of operating in China. Nationwide distribution networks will increasingly be put in place, but the Chinese market is likely still to be a fragmented one by 2015.
Topic:: Demographics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: China

300. The G20: Engine of Asian Regionalism?

Author:: Hugo Dobson
Publication Date:: 11-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:: As a result of the emergence of the G20 as the self‐appointed “premier forum for international economic cooperation”, Asia's expanded participation in G‐summitry has attracted considerable attention. As original G7 member Japan is joined by Australia, China, Indonesia, India and South Korea, this has given rise to another alphanumeric configuration of the Asian 6 (A6). Resulting expectations are that membership in the G20 will impact Asian regionalism as the A6 are forced into coordination and cooperation in response to the G20's agenda and commitments. However, by highlighting the concrete behaviours and motivations of the individual A6 in the G20 summits so far, this paper stands in contrast to the majority of the predominantly normative extant literature. It highlights divergent agendas amongst the A6 as regards the future of the G20 and discusses the high degree of competition over their identities and roles therein. This divergence and competition can be seen across a range of other behaviours including responding to the norm of internationalism in promoting global governance and maintaining the status quo and national interest, in addition to claiming a regional leadership role and managing bilateral relationships with the US.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, and Governance
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, China, Indonesia, India, Asia, South Korea, and Australia

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS