Political Geography: China / Publication Year: within 25 Years / Topic: Economics

401. China: Highlights and Key Issues

Publication Date:: 10-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: The Chinese economy expanded by 7.4% year-on-year in Q3, down from 7.6% in Q2, but stronger than we had expected. Of particular surprise was the implied quarterly growth rate; based on the seasonally adjusted data released by the NBS, the economy expanded at an annualised rate of 9.1%, the strongest since 2011Q3.
Topic:: Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:: China and Syria

402. China’s Energy Security Dilemma

Author:: Jenny Lin
Publication Date:: 02-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:: China’s “economic miracle” and its energy dilemma stem from the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) 30 year old policy to achieve “wealth for country first.” Beijing has bundled economic development, energy, science & technology-related policies as matters of national security. As a result, China’s current sense of energy and economic insecurity may be analyzed as a product of its decades-long off-balanced policies towards development.
Topic:: Economics, Energy Policy, National Security, Science and Technology, Economic Development, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
Political Geography:: China and Asia

403. Foreign Manufacturing Multinationals and the Transformation of the Chinese Economy: New Measurements, New Perspectives

Author:: Theodore H. Moran
Publication Date:: 04-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: What is the relationship between foreign manufacturing multinational corporations (MNCs) and the expansion of indigenous technological and managerial technological capabilities among Chinese firms? China has been remarkably successful in designing industrial policies, joint venture requirements, and technology transfer pressures to use FDI to create indigenous national champions in a handful of prominent sectors: high speed rail transport, information technology, auto assembly, and an emerging civil aviation sector. But what is striking in the aggregate data is how relatively thin the layer of horizontal and vertical spillovers from foreign manufacturing multinationals to indigenous Chinese firms has proven to be. Despite the large size of manufacturing FDI inflows, the impact of multinational corporate investment in China has been largely confined to building plants that incorporate capital, technology, and managerial expertise controlled by the foreigner. As the skill-intensity of exports increases, the percentage of the value of the final product that derives from imported components rises sharply. China has remained a low value-added assembler of more sophisticated inputs imported from abroad—a “workbench” economy. Where do the gains from FDI in China end up? While manufacturing MNCs may build plants in China, the largest impact from deployment of worldwide earnings is to bolster production, employment, R, and local purchases in their home markets. For the United States the most recent data show that US-headquartered MNCs have 70 percent of their operations, make 89 percent of their purchases, spend 87 percent of their R dollars, and locate more than half of their workforce within the US economy—this is where most of the earnings from FDI in China are delivered.
Topic:: Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Israel

404. Intercity Buses: The Forgotten Mode

Author:: Randal O'Toole
Publication Date:: 06-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: The debate over President Obama's fantastically expensive high-speed rail program has obscured the resurgence of a directly competing mode of transportation: intercity buses. Entrepreneurial immigrants from China and recently privatized British transportation companies have developed a new model for intercity bus operations that provides travelers with faster service at dramatically reduced fares.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, Infrastructure, and Governance
Political Geography:: United States and China

405. Organising an investment in China: Prepare for opportunity

Publication Date:: 11-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: Foreign companies continue to be attracted by the opportunities offered by China's large and rapidly growing economy. China has a population of over 1.3bn, and the size of the economy is likely to grow to just under US$13trn a year at market exchange rates by 2015. Although GDP per head will still be relatively low by the end of the forecast period, at just under US$10,000 a year, this will represent a substantial improvement from just under US$4,500 in 2010. Significant regional disparities within China will persist. The provinces of the eastern seaboard enjoy standards of living well above the national average. However, there are also markets to be found in inland China, where many large cities are located. To some extent, the size of the population and the pace of economic growth belie the challenges of operating in China. Nationwide distribution networks will increasingly be put in place, but the Chinese market is likely still to be a fragmented one by 2015.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: China

406. Politics of Two Anniversaries

Author:: Yu Bin
Publication Date:: 09-2011
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The summer of 2011 marked two anniversaries for China and Russia. In June, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) celebrated its 10th anniversary at the annual SCO Summit in Astana, Kazakhstan. Over the past 10 years, the regional security group has grown fed by its “twin engines” of Russia and China. Immediately following the SCO Summit, President Hu Jintao traveled to Moscow, marking the 10th anniversary of the signing of the Friendship Treaty between Russia and China. There was much to celebrate as Moscow, Beijing, and the SCO have achieved stability, security, and sustained economic development in a world riddled with revolutions, chaos, crises, and another major economic downturn. The two anniversaries were also a time to pause and think about “next steps.” While the SCO is having “growing pains,” China and Russia have elevated their “strategic partnership relations” to a “comprehensive strategic cooperation and partnership.”
Topic:: Security and Economics
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Kazakhstan, and Moscow

407. Energy Interests of the 'Great Powers' in Central Asia: Cooperation or Conflict?

Author:: Shamil Midkhatovich Yenikeyeff
Publication Date:: 09-2011
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The International Spectator
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The geographic proximity of Central Asia to Russia, China, the Caucasus and the Caspian region, as well as to the Middle East, makes this oil and gas-producing region a crucial and ever-developing player in regional and global energy markets. The method by which Central Asian producers choose to develop their hydrocarbon resources and export infrastructure will have significant implications for the plans for diversification of oil and gas supplies of Europe, China and India, as well as for Russia's energy exports to Europe. It is still too early to tell whether the economic and political incentives are strong enough to promote cooperation between the various actors or whether the energy interests of these key external powers are so diverse as to clash in Central Asia.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, Central Asia, and Asia

408. Renminbi Rules: The Conditional Imminence of the Reserve Currency Transition

Author:: Arvind Subramanian
Publication Date:: 09-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Against the backdrop of the recent financial crisis and the ongoing rapid changes in the world economy, the fate of the dollar as the premier international reserve currency is under scrutiny. This paper attempts to answer whether the Chinese renminbi will eclipse the dollar, what will be the timing of, and the prerequisites for this transition, and which of the two countries controls the outcome. The key finding, based on analyzing the last 110 years, is that the size of an economy—measured not just in terms of GDP but also trade and the strength of the external financial position—is the key fundamental correlate of reserve currency status. Further, the conventional view that sterling persisted well beyond the strength of the UK economy is overstated. Although the United States overtook the United Kingdom in terms of GDP in the 1870s, it became dominant in a broader sense encompassing trade and finance only at the end of World War I. And since the dollar overtook sterling in the mid-1920s, the lag between currency dominance and economic dominance was about 10 years rather than the 60-plus years traditionally believed. Applying these findings to the current context suggests that the renminbi could become the premier reserve currency by the end of this decade, or early next decade. But China needs to fulfill a number of conditions—making the reniminbi convertible and opening up its financial system to create deep and liquid markets—to realize renminbi preeminence. China seems to be moving steadily in that direction, and renminbi convertibility will proceed apace not least because it offers China's policymakers a political exit out of its mercantilist growth strategy. The United States cannot in any serious way prevent China from moving in that direction.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:: United States and China

409. The G20: Engine of Asian Regionalism?

Author:: Hugo Dobson
Publication Date:: 11-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:: As a result of the emergence of the G20 as the self‐appointed “premier forum for international economic cooperation”, Asia's expanded participation in G‐summitry has attracted considerable attention. As original G7 member Japan is joined by Australia, China, Indonesia, India and South Korea, this has given rise to another alphanumeric configuration of the Asian 6 (A6). Resulting expectations are that membership in the G20 will impact Asian regionalism as the A6 are forced into coordination and cooperation in response to the G20's agenda and commitments. However, by highlighting the concrete behaviours and motivations of the individual A6 in the G20 summits so far, this paper stands in contrast to the majority of the predominantly normative extant literature. It highlights divergent agendas amongst the A6 as regards the future of the G20 and discusses the high degree of competition over their identities and roles therein. This divergence and competition can be seen across a range of other behaviours including responding to the norm of internationalism in promoting global governance and maintaining the status quo and national interest, in addition to claiming a regional leadership role and managing bilateral relationships with the US.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, and Governance
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, China, Indonesia, India, Asia, South Korea, and Australia

410. Chinese FDI in the United States is taking off: How to maximize its benefits?

Author:: Daniel H. Rosen and Thilo Hanemann
Publication Date:: 10-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: China's outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) grew rapidly in the past decade, but flows to developed economies have been limited. Now China's direct investment flows to the United States are poised to rise substantially. This new trend offers tremendous opportunities for the U. S., provided policymakers take steps to keep the investment environment open and utilize China's new interest productively.
Topic:: Climate Change and Economics
Political Geography:: United States and China

411. Chinese Commodity Imports in Ghana and Senegal: Demystifying Chinese Business Strength in Urban West Africa

Author:: Laurence Marfaing and Alena Thiel
Publication Date:: 11-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:: Since the beginning of the twenty‐first century, Africa has seen the arrival of a new form of Chinese migration. Largely independent from big Chinese players, these “new entrepreneurial migrants” come to Africa not as workers in the highly prestigious state projects, but rather to follow their own economic interests. Engaging in business activities as diverse as petty manufacturing, printing, pharmaceutical and medical services, restaurants, beauty salons and last but not least, general trade, these independent Chinese migrants are often acknowledged for bringing affordable new commercial services and goods to low‐income households on the African continent. On the other hand, the high visibility of the Chinese entrepreneurial activities has also sparked anti‐Chinese sentiments among many African entrepreneurs.
Topic:: Economics, Imperialism, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:: Africa, China, and Ghana

412. The Future of Convergence

Author:: Dani Rodrik
Publication Date:: 10-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: Novelists have a better track record than economists at foretelling the future. Consider then Gary Shteyngart's timely comic novel “Super Sad True Love Story” (Random House, 2010), which provides a rather graphic vision of what lies in store for the world economy. The novel takes place in the near future and is set against the backdrop of a United States that lies in economic and political ruin. The country's bankrupt economy is ruled with a firm hand by the IMF from its new Parthenon-shaped headquarters in Singapore. China and sovereign wealth funds have parceled America's most desirable real estate among themselves. Poor people are designated as LNWI (“low net worth individual s”) and are being pushed into ghettoes. Even skilled Americans are desperate to acquire residency status in foreign lands. (A degree in econometrics helps a lot, as it turns out). Ivy League colleges have adopted the names of their Asian partners and yuan-backed dollars are the only safe currency.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, Emerging Markets, Sovereign Wealth Funds, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: United States, China, America, and Singapore

413. Going Global: Chinese Oil and Mining Companies and the Governance of Resource Wealth

Author:: Jill Shankleman
Publication Date:: 11-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Wilson Center
Abstract:: This report is the result of a six-month research project undertaken at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington, D.C. The focus of the work is on the impact of China's oil and mining companies' recent overseas expansion on the governance of resource wealth. The paper covers four topics: The structure of the Chinese oil and mining industries, focusing on overseas operations; the emergence over the last ten years within the large-scale, OECD-based extractive industry, of a “new model” for resource extraction focusing on minimizing negative social and environmental impacts and on resource revenue transparency; the development of corporate social responsibility concepts in China, and the extent to which this is leading Chinese oil and mining companies to apply the “new model” for resource extraction, and the role of Chinese infrastructure loans to resource-rich developing countries in resource wealth governance.
Topic:: Economics, Government, Industrial Policy, and Oil
Political Geography:: China and Washington

414. Is Indonesia Bound for the BRICs?

Author:: Karen Brooks
Publication Date:: 11-2011
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Foreign Affairs
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: Indonesia is in the midst of a yearlong debut on the world stage. This past spring and summer, it hosted a series of high-profile summits, including for the Overseas Private Investment Corporation in May, the World Economic Forum on East Asia the same month, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in July. With each event, Indonesia received broad praise for its leadership and achievements. This coming-out party will culminate in November, when the country hosts the East Asia Summit, which U.S. President Barack Obama and world leaders from 17 other countries will attend. As attention turns to Indonesia, the time is ripe to assess whether Jakarta can live up to all the hype. A little over ten years ago, during the height of the Asian financial crisis, Indonesia looked like a state on the brink of collapse. The rupiah was in a death spiral, protests against President Suharto's regime had turned into riots, and violence had erupted against Indonesia's ethnic Chinese community. The chaos left the country -- the fourth largest in the world, a sprawling archipelago including more than 17,000 islands, 200 million people, and the world's largest Muslim population -- without a clear leader. Today, Indonesia is hailed as a model democracy and is a darling of the international financial community. The Jakarta Stock Exchange has been among the world's top performers in recent years, and some analysts have even called for adding Indonesia to the ranks of the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China). More recent efforts to identify the economic superstars of the future -- Goldman Sachs' "Next 11," PricewaterhouseCoopers' "E-7" (emerging 7), The Economist's "CIVETS" (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey, and South Africa), and Citigroup's "3G" -- all include Indonesia.
Topic:: Economics and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, China, Indonesia, India, East Asia, Brazil, and Island

415. The Sick Man of Asia

Author:: Yanzhong Huang
Publication Date:: 11-2011
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Foreign Affairs
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: Although China has made remarkable economic progress over the past few decades, its citizens' health has not improved as much. Since 1980, the country has achieved an average economic growth rate of ten percent and lifted 400–500 million people out of poverty. Yet Chinese official data suggest that average life expectancy in China rose by only about five years between 1981 and 2009, from roughly 68 years to 73 years. (It had increased by almost 33 years between 1949 and 1980.) In countries that had similar life expectancy levels in 1981 but had slower economic growth thereafter -- Colombia, Malaysia, Mexico, and South Korea, for example -- by 2009 life expectancy had increased by 7–14 years. According to the World Bank, even in Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, and Singapore, which had much higher life expectancy figures than China in 1981, those figures rose by 7–10 years during the same period.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: Japan, China, Malaysia, Asia, South Korea, Colombia, Australia, Mexico, and Hong Kong

416. The Trans-Pacific Partnership and Asia-Pacific Integration: A Quantitative Assessment

Author:: Peter A. Petri, Michael G. Plummer, and Fan Zhai
Publication Date:: 10-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Two emerging tracks of trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific—one based on the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement and an Asian track—could consolidate the “noodle bowl” of current smaller agreements and provide pathways to a Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP). We examine the benefits and strategic incentives generated by these tracks over 2010-2025. The effects on the world economy would be small initially but by 2025 the annual welfare gains would rise to $104 billion on the TPP track, $303 billion on both tracks, and $862 billion with an FTAAP. The tracks will be competitive but their strategic implications are constructive: each would generate incentives for enlargement. Over time, strong economic incentives would emerge for the United States and China to consolidate the tracks into a region-wide agreement. Each track would bring a different template to such consolidation and can be viewed as defining a “disagreement point” in the Asia-Pacific bargaining game. The study is based on an analysis of 48 actual and proposed Asia-Pacific trade agreements and models impacts on variables including sectoral trade, output, employment and job shifts in 24 world regions.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States, China, Israel, Asia, Australia/Pacific, and Asia-Pacific

417. An Evaluation of Overseas Oil Investment Projects Under Uncertainty Using a Real Options Based Simulation Model

Author:: ZhongXiang Zhang, Lei Zhu, and Ying Fan
Publication Date:: 11-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: This paper applies real options theory to establish an overseas oil investment evaluation model that is based on Monte Carlo simulation and is solved by the Least Squares Monte-Carlo method. To better reflect the reality of overseas oil investment, the model has incorporated not only the uncertainties of oil price and investment cost but also the uncertainties of exchange rate and investment environment. These unique features have enabled the model to be best equipped to evaluate the value of oil overseas investment projects of three oil field sizes (large, medium, small) and under different resource tax systems (royalty tax and production sharing contracts). In the empirical setting, China was selected as an investor country and Indonesia as an investee country as a case study. The results show that the investment risks and project values of small sized oil fields are more sensitive to changes in the uncertainty factors than the large and medium sized oil fields. Furthermore, among the uncertainty factors considered in the model, the investment risk of overseas oil investment may be underestimated if no consideration is given of the impacts of exchange rate and investment environment. Finally, as there is an important tradeoff between oil resource investee country and overseas oil investor, in medium and small sized oil investment negotiation the oil company should try to increase the cost oil limit in production sharing contract and avoid the term of a windfall profits tax to reduce the investment risk of overseas oil fields.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Oil
Political Geography:: China, Indonesia, and Israel

418. Who Should Bear the Cost of China's Carbon Emissions Embodied in Goods for Exports?

Author:: ZhongXiang Zhang
Publication Date:: 11-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: China's capital-intensive, export-oriented, spectacular economic growth since launching its open-door policy and economic reforms in late 1978 not only has created jobs and has lifted millions of the Chinese people out of poverty, but also has given rise to unprecedented environmental pollution and CO2 emissions. While estimates of the embedded CO2 emissions in China's trade differ, both single country studies for China and global studies show a hefty chunk of China's CO2 emissions embedded in trade. This portion of CO2 emissions had helped to turn China into the world's largest carbon emitter, and is further widening its gap with the second largest emitter. This raises the issue of who should be responsible for this portion of emissions and bearing the carbon cost of exports. China certainly wants importers to cover some, if not all, of that costs. While China's stance is understandable, this paper has argued from a broad and balanced perspective that if this is pushed too far, it will not help to find solutions to this issue. On the contrary it can be to China's disadvantage for a number of reasons. However, aligning this responsibility with China does not necessarily suggest the sole reliance on domestic actions. In that context, the paper recommends specific actions that need to be taken internationally as well as domestically in order to effectively control the embedded CO2 emissions in China's trade.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: China

419. From REDD to Green: A Global Incentive System to Stop Tropical Forest Clearing

Author:: David Wheeler, Robin Kraft, and Dan Hammer
Publication Date:: 12-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: In this paper, we develop and illustrate a prototype incentive system for promoting rapid reduction of forest clearing in tropical countries. Our proposed Tropical Forest Protection Fund (TFPF) is a cash-on-delivery system that rewards independently monitored performance without formal contracts. The system responds to forest tenure problems in many countries by dividing incentive payments between national governments, which command the greatest number of instruments that affect forest clearing, and indigenous communities, which often have tenure rights in forested lands. The TFPF incorporates both monetary and reputational incentives, which are calculated quarterly. The monetary incentives are unconditional cash transfers based on measured performance, while the reputational incentives are publicly disclosed, color-coded performance ratings for each country. The incentives include rewards for: (1) exceeding long-run expectations, given a country's forest clearing history and development status; (2) meeting or exceeding global REDD+ goals; and (3) achieving an immediate reduction in forest clearing. Drawing on monthly forest clearing indicators from the new FORMA (Forest Monitoring for Action) database, we illustrate a prototype TFPF for eight East Asian countries: Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam. A system with identical design principles could be implemented by single or multiple donors for individual or multiple forest proprietors within one or more countries, as well as national or local governments in individual countries, tropical regions, or the global pan-tropics. Our results demonstrate the importance of financial flexibility in the design of the proposed TFPF. Its incentives are calculated to induce a massive, rapid reduction of tropical forest clearing. If that occurs, a TFPF for East Asia will need standby authority for disbursements that may total $10–14 billion annually for the next two decades. This financial burden will not persist, however, because the TFPF is designed to self-liquidate once all recipient countries have achieved clearly specified benchmarks. We estimate that the TFPF can be closed by 2070, with its major financial responsibility discharged by 2040.
Topic:: Agriculture, Economics, Globalization, and Markets
Political Geography:: China, Indonesia, Malaysia, East Asia, Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, Southeast Asia, and Myanmar

420. A China Round of Multilateral Trade Negotiations

Author:: Arvind Subramanian and Aaditya Mattoo
Publication Date:: 12-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: Until recently, the World Trade Organization (WTO) has been an effective framework for cooperation because it has continually adapted to changing economic realities. The current Doha Agenda is an aberration because it does not reflect one of the biggest shifts in the international economic and trading system: the rise of China. Even though China will have a stake in maintaining trade openness, an initiative that builds on but redefines the Doha Agenda would anchor China more fully in the multilateral trading system. Such an initiative would have two pillars. First, a new negotiating agenda that would include the major issues of interest to China and its trading partners, and thus unleash the powerful reciprocal liberalization mechanism that has driven the WTO process to previous successes. Second, new restraints on bilateralism and regionalism that would help preserve incentives for maintaining the current broad non-discriminatory trading order.
Topic:: Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: China, Israel, and Asia

421. Turkey and Taiwan: The Relationship Seeking Its Ground

Author:: Selçuk Çolakoglu and Arzu Güler
Publication Date:: 01-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Strategic Research Organization (USAK)
Abstract:: In the pre-1971 period, "One China" for Turkey was the Republic of China in Taiwan and the two countries were in cooperation against communist expansion. However, in 1971, though being reluctant for the expulsion of Taiwan from the United Nations, Turkey recognized People's Republic of China as the sole legal representative of China and pursued the "One China" policy in that respect. Thus, in the post-1971 period, Turkey's relations with Taiwan have continued only in terms of economy, trade and culture without recognizing it as an independent political unit. Beginning from early 1990s, Turkey began to take initiatives to increase its trade cooperation with Taiwan.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, and Culture
Political Geography:: China, Turkey, Taiwan, Asia, and United Nations

422. Toward Greater Pragmatism? China\'s Approach to Innovation and Standardization

Author:: Dieter Ernst
Publication Date:: 08-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
Abstract:: China\'s innovation policy and its perceived threat to American innovation and competitiveness is a hot topic in U.S.-China economic relations. The role of standardization, together with intellectual property rights and government procurement, are at the center of this conflict. Fundamental differences in their levels of development and economic institutions lead to quite different approaches to standards and innovation policy by the two countries. China\'s strategy of pursuing indigenous innovation based on local standards faces internal challenges in trying to bring together a diverse group of stakeholders with conflicting interests, as well as external pressures to adopt international standards. Enhanced cooperation on standards and innovation policies should be possible, once the United States and China accept that, while their economic and innovation systems are different, they are deeply interdependent. Both sides would benefit, creating new Chinese markets for American firms and easing technology licensing restrictions for Chinese firms.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Science and Technology, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States, China, America, Asia, and North America

423. Whose money? The tug-of-war over Chinese state enterprise profits

Author:: Mikael Mattlin
Publication Date:: 04-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: While China's reform strategy has largely been a success story that has seen living standards rise tremendously, it has also led to widening income gaps, regional disparities, and much wasteful investment. Large income gaps breed social discontent that may turn into political demands. The ruling Communist Party has proved itself adroit at preventing such demands from emerging, by taking timely pre-emptive action in response to people's needs.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and Social Stratification
Political Geography:: China

424. Public and Elite Views on Europe vs. China in Africa

Author:: Lorenzo Fioramonti and Patrick Kimunguyi
Publication Date:: 03-2011
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The International Spectator
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Europe has been the privileged economic and political partner of Africa, but more recently China has increased its foothold in Africa through important financial investments and trade agreements. Against this backdrop, the empirical research conducted in 2007-08 in Kenya and South Africa as part of a pioneering international project investigates the perceptions of public opinion, political leaders, civil society activists and media operators. While confirming their continent's traditional proximity to Europe, African citizens are increasingly interested in China and its impact on Africa's development. Europe is criticised for not having been able to dismiss the traditionally 'patronising' attitude towards Africa. While African civil society leaders and media operators describe China as an opportunity for Africa to break free of its historical dependence on European markets, other opinion leaders warn against too much enthusiasm for the Asian giant. There is a suspicion that the Chinese strategy might, in the long run, turn into a new form of economic patronage.
Topic:: Civil Society and Economics
Political Geography:: Kenya, Africa, China, Europe, Asia, and South Africa

425. The Myth of Economic Complementarity in Sino-Indian Relations

Author:: Yasheng Huang
Publication Date:: 05-2011
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: It is now a part of conventional wisdom that both China and India are emerging economic, political and even military powers in the 21st century. Terms such as “BRIC” and “Chindia,” and phrases such as “not China or India, but China and India” have entered popular discourse and policy discussions. Such terms imply a synergistic relationship between China and India—an implication that belies the tension that has characterized Sino-Indian relations for centuries. My view is less sanguine than many others' about the prospects of their relations. Relations between the two countries will be fraught with difficulties and will likely remain fragile. Conflict and competitiveness are deeply rooted in historical and structural causes, while forces for harmony are more contingent on political will, cultural understanding and careful policy management. There are several areas in which their relations can go wrong. At a fundamental level, the two countries are in an economically competitive, not a complementary, relationship with each other. Their economic and social endowments are similar (as compared with China/U.S. or India/U.S.). India and China offer very different lessons about economic policies and growth. This is not to suggest that the two countries are headed toward an inevitable collision, but to identify the urgency of carefully managing their relations and nurturing trust and goodwill on both sides.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: United States, China, and India

426. Blind Men and an Elephant: How the Indian and Chinese Press Cover Myanmar

Author:: Paul Fraioli
Publication Date:: 05-2011
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: The objective of this paper is to examine how patterns of Indian and Chinese reporting on Myanmar reflect the political climates of each country. A sample of 94 articles from Indian sources and 106 articles from Xinhua News Agency (English) was examined using content-analysis techniques. There is a clear divergence in the topics covered by the Indian and Chinese media during the time period reviewed, 3 November to 17 November 2010, which was selected to coincide with Myanmar's first nationwide elections in twenty years as well as the release of political prisoner Aung San Suu Kyi from house arrest. The Indian press provided more coverage of Suu Kyi's release and of Myanmar political affairs than the Chinese press, but neither India nor China covered Suu Kyi's activities in the days following her release. The Chinese press provided more coverage of economic affairs and the Myawaddy border crisis, which the Indian press ignored. Surprisingly, the press in nondemocratic China attentively chronicled and promoted Myanmar's elections while the press in democratic India had very little to say about them. This suggests that on these issues, the press focus on what they perceive to be in the national interest of their respective countries.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: China and India

427. Beyond Rhetoric: Sino-Indian Relations in an Era of Interdependence - Asian Knowledge-Based Economics: Complex and Convoluted

Author:: Aditi Malik and Maria Y. Wang
Publication Date:: 05-2011
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: With the simultaneous rise of two titans in Asia, India and China, what are the features that mark their relations with one another? Furthermore, what can current relations tell us about future prospects for peace between the two nations? These are the fundamental questions with which Jonathan Holslag is concerned. He notes that these are not new questions but ones that have been the subject of continuous debate. He argues that this debate has broadly produced two camps: the first camp is focused on the “security relationship,” while the second analyzes the above questions from the perspective of the increased interdependence between the two nations. Holslag aims to situate his work by taking into account information from both camps.
Topic:: Security and Economics
Political Geography:: China, India, and Asia

428. China in the Pacific: the new banker in town

Author:: Fergus Hanson and Mary Fifita
Publication Date:: 04-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: What is the problem? China is now one of the Pacific\'s major donors. An analysis of its aid program in the region from 2005 to 2009 suggests it is reducing the grant component of its aid and increasing the soft loan proportion. China has pledged over $US 600 million to the Pacific since 2005 and debt burdening will become increasingly pressing as Chinese loans accumulate and the five-year grace periods expire. There appears to have been limited progress improving transparency.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Australia/Pacific

429. Capital Account Liberalization and the Role of the Renminbi

Author:: Nicholas R. Lardy and Patrick Douglass
Publication Date:: 02-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Despite an erosion of consensus on its benefits, capital account convertibility remains a long-term goal of China. This paper identifies three major preconditions for convertibility in China: a strong domestic banking system, relatively developed domestic financial markets, and an equilibrium exchange rate. The authors examine each of these in turn and find that, in significant respects, China does not yet meet any of the conditions necessary for convertibility. They then evaluate China's progress to date on capital account liberalization, including recent efforts to promote renminbi internationalization and greater use of the renminbi in trade settlement. The paper concludes with an overview of remaining obstacles to convertibility and policy recommendations.
Topic:: Development, Economics, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:: China

430. Estimates of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates, May 2011

Author:: William R. Cline and John Williamson
Publication Date:: 05-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: This policy brief updates our estimates of fundamental equilibrium exchange rates (FEERs) to the latest available data, which for exchange rates are the average rates of April 2011, and for the IMF's balance of payments forecasts, those published in the April 2011 issue of World Economic Outlook (WEO; see IMF 2011a). It is the central study in what has now become a regular annual cycle, in which we draw out what we believe to be the implications of the IMF's forecasts for the pattern that exchange rates need to take if the world is to approach a reasonably satisfactory medium-run position. This past year we also published an interim policy brief (Cline and Williamson 2010b) in which we updated our calculations to the average exchange rates of October 2010, as well as commented on Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega's description of international monetary events as constituting "currency wars." As in the previous year, however, the November 2010 policy brief updated our estimates only for intervening changes in market exchange rates. We did not make use of the IMF's revised autumn WEO forecasts to update our estimates of FEERs; on the contrary, we assumed the FEERs estimated in May 2010 were correct. In contrast, this policy brief presents totally new estimates of FEERs.
Topic:: Economics and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:: United States and China

431. The Elephant in the "Green Room": China and the Doha Round

Author:: Arvind Subramanian, Aaditya Mattoo, and Francis Ng
Publication Date:: 05-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The puzzle about the Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations in the World Trade Organization (WTO) is not why it is on life support now but how it has survived as a viable multilateral initiative for so long. From the very beginning, it was clear that the Round suffered from a lack of private-sector interest, the engine that had driven previous rounds of successful trade negotiations. At most, Doha promised to deliver some security of access for unilateral liberalization previously undertaken by countries and some modest incremental market opening (Martin and Mattoo 2009; Hufbauer, Schott, and Wong 2010). That the Round had much to be modest about was reflected in the failure of even antiglobalization protesters to show up for the more recent meetings of the Doha Round.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:: China

432. Getting Surplus Countries to Adjust

Author:: John Williamson
Publication Date:: 01-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The world has witnessed two distinct attempts to build a multilateral mechanism to discipline surplus countries that declined to adjust their surpluses, and several proposals are currently on the table to do the same. On the two previous occasions the major surplus country of the day defeated attempts to create such a mechanism, and today China (not to mention Japan or Germany) exhibits no enthusiasm for the idea. Despite the importance of the issue, there has been remarkably little discussion of these proposals.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, International Monetary Fund, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:: Japan, China, and Germany

433. Who Captures Value in Global Supply Chains?

Author:: Jyrki Ali-Yrkkö, Petri Rouvinen, Timo Seppälä, and Pekka Ylä-Anttila
Publication Date:: 02-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
Abstract:: Available statistics tell us little about the economic consequences of increasing global dispersion of production processes. In order to shed light on the issue, we perform grass roots detective work to uncover the geography of value added in the case of a Nokia N95 smartphone circa 2007. The phone was assembled in Finland and China. In the case when the device was assembled and sold in Europe, the value-added share of Europe (EU-27) rose to 68%. Even in the case when it was assembled in China and sold in the United States, Europe captured as much as 51% of the value added, despite of the fact that it had rather little role in supplying the physical components. Our analysis illustrates that international trade statistics can be misleading; the capture of value added is largely detached from the physical goods flows. It is rather services and other intangible aspects of the supply chain that dominate. While final assembly – commanding 2% of the value added in our case – has increasingly moved offshore, the developed countries continue to capture most of the value added generated by global supply chains.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and Finland

434. The role of multinationals in sparking industrialization: From "infant industry protection" to "FDI-led industrial take-off"

Author:: Terutomo Ozawa
Publication Date:: 06-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: Although not yet fully conceptualized as a new catch-up model in mainstream development economics, the infant industry argument (protectionism designed to replace imports with domestic substitutes) is giving way to a foreign direct investment (FDI)-led model of industrialization.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Industrial Policy, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, and China

435. The coming harmonization of climate change policy and international investment law

Author:: Daniel M. Firger
Publication Date:: 05-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: Developments in climate change policy and international investment law may be ushering in a new era characterized by profound harmonization between the two regimes. Although policy instruments such as the Kyoto Protocol's “Clean Development Mechanism” (CDM) have been in existence for years, it is only relatively recently that the international community has turned to low-carbon foreign direct investment (FDI) and away from command-and-control regulation as the preferred means by which to achieve future greenhouse gas emissions reductions. Meanwhile, states have begun to renegotiate international investment agreements (IIAs) or sign new treaties to take into account policy goals, including climate change mitigation, that extend beyond the regime's traditional preoccupation with investor protection. Though still somewhat tentative, emerging trends in both arenas are thus showing unmistakable signs of convergence.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, Industrial Policy, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: United States and China

436. Are resurging state-owned enterprises impeding competition overseas?

Author:: Nilgün Gökgür
Publication Date:: 04-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: There are no up-to-date systematic data on the size, composition, ownership structure, and economic weight of state-owned enterprises (SOEs), so we are unable to assess the impact of SOE performance on stakeholders in domestic and overseas markets. Yet there is sufficient evidence of their expansion, especially following the 2008 financial crisis. Emerging markets, led by China, are now increasingly encouraging their SOEs to expand globally as multinational enterprises (MNEs).
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, and Markets
Political Geography:: Africa and China

437. Inward FDI in Israel and its policy context

Author:: Yair Aharoni
Publication Date:: 01-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: In the first four decades of its existence, Israel was not successful in attracting inward foreign direct investment (IFDI) despite attempts to do so. In the past two decades, Israel have become a haven for multinational enterprises (MNEs) that have taken advantage of its unique assets – among them a skilled, educated workforce and cutting-edge research-and-development (R) capabilities – by establishing production lines or R centers and acquiring dozens of successful start ups. Israel's IFDI stock sharply increased from US$ 4.5 billion in 1990 to US$ 71.3 billion in 2009. It is expected that IFDI will further accelerate following Israel's accession to the OECD in May 2010 and as more firms from emerging market economies, including China and India, will come to appreciate its characteristics as an ideal locational choice. Israel also weathered the global economic crisis well, even though IFDI declined sharply. Israel actively encourages IFDI, mainly in high technology areas. In 2010, the Government also created special incentives to attract research centers of financial institutions.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, India, and Israel

438. Global Brazil and U.S.-Brazil Relations

Author:: Samuel W. Bodman, James D. Wolfensohn, and Julia E. Sweig
Publication Date:: 07-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: Brazil has transcended its status as the largest and most resource-rich country in Latin America to now be counted among the world's pivotal powers. Brazil is not a conventional military power, it does not rival China or India in population or economic size, and it cannot match the geopolitical history of Russia. Still, how Brazil defines and projects its interests, a still-evolving process, is critical to understanding the character of the new multipolar and unpredictable global order.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Russia, China, India, Brazil, and Latin America

439. Asia's century and the problem of Japan's centrality

Author:: Brendan Taylor
Publication Date:: 07-2011
Content Type:: Journal Article
Institution:: Chatham House
Abstract:: Japan has long been regarded as a central component of America's grand strategyin Asia. Scholars and practitioners assume this situation will persist in the face of China's rise and, indeed, that a more 'normal' Japan can and should take on anincreasingly central role in US-led strategies to manage this power transition. Thisarticle challenges those assumptions by arguing that they are, paradoxically, beingmade at a time when Japan's economic and strategic weight in Asian security isgradually diminishing. The article documents Japan's economic and demographicchallenges and their strategic ramifications. It considers what role Japan mightplay in an evolving security order where China and the US emerge as Asia's twodominant powers by a significant margin. Whether the US-China relationshipis ultimately one of strategic competition or accommodation, it is argued thatJapan's continued centrality in America's Asian grand strategy threatens to becomeincreasingly problematic. It is posited that the best hope for circumventing thisproblem and its potentially destabilizing consequences lies in the nurturing of anascent 'shadow condominium' comprising the US and China, with Japan as a'marginal weight' on the US side of that arrangement.
Topic:: Security and Economics
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, China, and America

440. Is China a responsible stakeholder?

Author:: Amitai Etzioni
Publication Date:: 05-2011
Content Type:: Journal Article
Institution:: Chatham House
Abstract:: China has recently been criticized for not being a 'responsible stakeholder', not being a good citizen of the international community and not contributing to global public goods. China 'is refusing to be a responsible stakeholder in the international political system, cultivating, as it has been, good relations with some of the world's most odious regimes', according to Robert Kaplan, writing in The Atlantic. An editorial in the Wall Street Journal asserts that 'China won't be a responsible stakeholder' and acts as a 'free-rider'. Observing China's growing assertiveness in foreign policy and purported attempts to undermine the current liberal world order, Elizabeth Economy writes in Foreign Affairs that 'China is transforming the world as it transforms itself. Never mind notions of a responsible stakeholder; China has become a revolutionary power.'
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: China

441. International order after the financial crisis

Author:: Harold James
Publication Date:: 05-2011
Content Type:: Journal Article
Institution:: Chatham House
Abstract:: The geography of power is at present being dramatically transformed, notably by the rapid economic rise of China. What makes international order legitimate in a world in which political and economic foundations are rapidly shifting? This article examines analogies and lessons from a previous transition, from a world order centered on Britain, to a US dominated global order. The article looks at two interpretations of the transition, one by E. H. Carr, the other by Charles Kindleberger. China is beginning to behave in the way expected of a Kindleberger hegemon, but also sees the possibilities of asserting power in a world that in the aftermath of 2008 looks much more like the chaotic and crisis-ridden interwar period as interpreted by E. H. Carr. The challenge for the management of the new international order will lie in the ability of China to embrace the universalistic vision that underpinned previous eras of stability, in the nineteenth century and in the late twentieth century.
Topic:: Economics and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Britain, United States, and China

442. Glaciers, Monsoons, Rivers, and Conflict: China and South Asia

Author:: Paul Sullivan
Publication Date:: 02-2011
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:: With increasing country demands but a changing supply of water due to climate change, tensions may increase over international water sources in South Asia and China. The article investigates these trends and discusses the existing and potential treaties and impacts of different scenarios on the region's politics and economics.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:: China and South Asia

443. Russia, China and the Geopolitics of Energy in Central Asia

Author:: Alexandros Petersen and Katinka Barysch
Publication Date:: 11-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Energy has come to symbolise the geopolitics of the 21st century, reflecting countries' diminishing reliance on military and political power. Today, energy is an instrument of geopolitical competition, like nuclear weapons or large armies were during the Cold War. The means of international influence have become more diverse and sophisticated, but the goals remain much the same: national security, power projection, and control over resources and territory.
Topic:: Economics, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:: Russia, China, and Central Asia

444. Iran Sanctions: Preferable to War but No Silver Bullet

Author:: Barbara Slavin
Publication Date:: 06-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The broadest and toughest sanctions regime imposed on any country except Libya has not convinced Iran's leaders to abandon a program that appears aimed at developing nuclear weapons. Instead of seeking even more crippling economic penalties—such as an oil embargo—that would fracture the international consensus on Iran, the United States should tighten implementation of measures already in force and enact more sanctions linked to human rights, which have a wide constituency in Europe and demonstrate to the Iranian people that international concerns extend beyond nuclear weapons. The U.S. should also work with its diplomatic partners to craft new proposals that would couple acceptance of limited uranium enrichment with rigorous international monitoring, and encourage China, Iran's major trading partner, to use its leverage in support of nonproliferation.
Topic:: Economics, Human Rights, Nuclear Weapons, Sanctions, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Iran

445. A China Round of Multilateral Trade Negotiations

Author:: Arvind Subramanian and Aaditya Mattoo
Publication Date:: 12-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Until recently, the World Trade Organization (WTO) has been an effective framework for cooperation because it has continually adapted to changing economic realities. The current Doha Agenda is an aberration because it does not reflect one of the biggest shifts in the international economic and trading system: the rise of China. Even though China will have a stake in maintaining trade openness, an initiative that builds on but redefines the Doha Agenda would anchor China more fully in the multilateral trading system. Such an initiative would have two pillars. First, a new negotiating agenda that would include the major issues of interest to China and its trading partners, and thus unleash the powerful reciprocal liberalization mechanism that has driven the WTO process to previous successes. Second, new restraints on bilateralism and regionalism that would help preserve incentives for maintaining the current broad non-discriminatory trading order.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:: China and Israel

446. Is China's Indigenous Innovation Strategy Compatible with Globalization?

Author:: Xielin Liu and Peng Cheng
Publication Date:: 01-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: National innovation policies currently attract intense interest throughout the international community, particularly so in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. China is among those countries now relying heavily on government resources to drive innovation—a policy that directly challenges the prevalent theory that government powers have limited effects on a nation's innovation systems. Indeed, China's new indigenous innovation strategy has transformed the country's innovation systems. China's current indigenous innovation strategy is both constructive and efficient for an economy with clear targets for industrial innovation and working to catch up to international standards. For China to succeed as an innovative country it needs to provide more opportunity for market competition to incubate and generate radical innovations.
Topic:: Economics and Globalization
Political Geography:: China

447. Do Chinese Really Save Too Much? Aspects from Total Factor Productivity Growth in China since 1952

Author:: Qiong Zhang and Chong-En Bai
Publication Date:: 12-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: China's economic growth over the past three decades is unprecedented. Although this growth is commonly attributed to a high domestic savings rate among “thrifty” Chinese, savings alone cannot promote economic growth unless productivity has continuously grown for such a long period. This article uses a one-sector, neoclassical growth model to calibrate the economy to Chinese data since 1952 and finds that measuring changes in total factor productivity between 1952 and 2005 can well capture the secular movements in the Chinese savings rate. Far from supporting the widespread belief that China's savings rate is too high, this article argues that even thrifty Chinese “under-saved” for most of the years during this period; furthermore, the fiscal reforms of 1983 and 1985 further suppressed saving behavior, especially China's economic growth over the past three decades is unprecedented. Although this growth is commonly attributed to a high domestic savings rate among “thrifty” Chinese, savings alone cannot promote economic growth unless productivity has continuously grown for such a long period. This article uses a one-sector, neoclassical growth model to calibrate the economy to Chinese data since 1952 and finds that measuring changes in total factor productivity between 1952 and 2005 can well capture the secular movements in the Chinese savings rate. Far from supporting the widespread belief that China's savings rate is too high, this article argues that even thrifty Chinese “under-saved” for most of the years during this period; furthermore, the fiscal reforms of 1983 and 1985 further suppressed saving behavior, especially when initially implemented. In presenting such findings, this article at least partly solves the so-called “Chinese savings puzzle.”
Topic:: Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:: China

448. Toxic Legacy: Hunger, Oppression, Migration, and Health in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea

Author:: Leonard S. Rubenstein
Publication Date:: 01-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: During the 1990s, economic mismanagement, political oppression, natural disaster, and loss of external subsidies after the end of communism led to a calamitous decrease in food production in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK). The public health infrastructure, including water and sanitation systems, drug distribution and supply chains, and local clinics and hospitals, also deteriorated. At least half a million people died of starvation and millions more suffered acute or chronic malnutrition. Malnutrition increased vulnerability to disease at a time when the health system was incapable of effective response. Fifeen years later, neither health nor the food systems have recovered as the economy persistently stagnates. Health continues to be a low priority for the government. The availability of food is insufficient to meet population needs, hospitals and clinics are significantly ill-equipped, the medical workforce lacks appropriate training, and corruption in drug distribution is pervasive. Malnutrition and anemia, as well as diseases associated with poor sanitation, remain widespread. Over the last few years, DPRK has begun to accept international assistance to address health system needs, most notably to vaccinate children. Although these initiatives address some infrastructure needs, the continued centralized control of health and the lack of open discussion about key issues renders the possibility of reforms sufficient to meet the health needs of the people of North Korea dim. During the economic crisis, tens of thousands of North Koreans migrated to China despite harsh measures imposed by both governments to restrict border crossing and a refusal by China to give legal status to the migrants. To a limited extent, migration ameliorated the health impact of the crisis by stimulating illicit cross-border trade and informal markets that increased some North Koreans' access to food. Even after a disastrous effort by the DPRK government to shut the markets down in 2009, they are re-emerging. China's encouragement of these markets, along with regularizing the status of migrants in China, could advance its own economic interests as well as contributing to improving the health of North Koreans.
Topic:: Communism, Economics, Health, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: China, Israel, and North Korea

449. West is Best?

Author:: Timur Kuran
Publication Date:: 01-2011
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Foreign Affairs
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: A new book by Ian Morris tracks the development of the East and the West over the millennia. But methodological problems lead him to miss the crucial differences between modern and premodern life -- and understate what is really keeping the West ahead.
Topic:: Development, Economics, and History
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and Middle East

450. Popular Nationalism in China and the Sino-Japanese Relationship: The Conflict in the East China Sea

Author:: Erik Beukel
Publication Date:: 02-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: The Sino-Japanese relationship is a highly complex one, marked both by Japan's aggressive wars from the 1930s on and the present economic interdependence between the two countries. Focusing on the role of the territorial conflict in the East China Sea, this DIIS Report considers how China's leaders handle anti-Japanese nationalism by adopting a Janusian stance and pursuing both China's basic interest in close economic relations with Japan and also domestic stability. After a review of Chinese and Japanese sovereignty claims in the area and of the rise of nationalism since the early 1980s, four crises over the East China Sea are examined to identify the character of and changes in China's policy. For the last ten years China's leaders have attempted to conduct a more pragmatic policy towards Japan and evade the pernicious shadow of history. But this policy faces critical problems both in a growing popular nationalism in China and in the Japanese government's lack of willingness to restrain their own nationalists and the absence of legal possibilities for them to do so.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Economics, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Japan, China, Israel, and Asia

451. Tradition in Chinese politics: The Party-state's reinvention of the past and the critical response from public intellectuals

Author:: Jyrki Kallio
Publication Date:: 02-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: This study discusses the role of history and tradition in the legitimization of the state in the People's Republic of China. In Chinese political debate, history has traditionally been the most important source of argumentation. Today, the Party-state is reinventing history and tradition to bolster its legitimacy, but the project has met with opposition. This study introduces and analyzes the related debate, ongoing among various actors in different public fora in China, and engaged in both by those affiliated with the Party-state and those outside the establishment.
Topic:: Economics, Government, Markets, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:: China

452. The Post-Washington Consensus: Development after the Crisis

Author:: Francis Fukuyama and Nancy Birdsall
Publication Date:: 03-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: A clear shift in the development agenda is underway. Traditionally, an agenda generated in the developed world was implemented in—and, indeed, often imposed on—the developing world. The United States, Europe, and Japan will continue to be significant sources of economic resources and ideas, but the emerging markets will become significant players. Countries such as Brazil, China, India, and South Africa will be both donors and recipients of resources for development and of best practices for how to use them. In fact, development has never been something that the rich bestowed on the poor but rather something the poor achieved for themselves. It appears that the Western powers are finally waking up to this truth in light of a financial crisis that, for them, is by no means over.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Poverty, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, China, Europe, India, South Africa, and Brazil

453. Growth and Recovery in a Time of Default: Lessons from the Role of the Urban Sector in Argentina

Author:: Michael Cohen
Publication Date:: 03-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: International narratives on Argentina's recovery from the crisis of 2001-02 tend to emphasize the role of rising commodity prices and growing demand from China. Argentina is said to have been 'lucky', saved by global demand for its agricultural exports. The international narrative has also been used by local agricultural exporters to justify their objections against higher export taxes during periods of high commodity prices. These narratives are not correct. Data on the country's recovery show that it was not led by agricultural exports but was fuelled by urban demand and production. When the Convertibility period ended and the peso was devalued in 2002, price increases for imports stimulated the production of domestic goods and services for consumers. This production in turn generated multiplier effects which supported small and medium-sized firms and helped to create many new jobs. This later produced a revival of the construction and then the manufacturing sectors as well.
Topic:: Agriculture, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: China, Argentina, and Latin America

454. From Preponderance of Power to Balance of Power? South Korea in Search of a New North Korea Policy

Author:: Jihwan Hwang
Publication Date:: 12-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:: The global and East Asian orders of power are now represented by China's economic, military, and diplomatic rise and America's decline. The result is often called Chimerica or G2, leading to U.S.-China competition in every aspect of the international agenda. After the Bush administration's foreign policy in the first years of the millennium, when many scholars and policy makers focused on U.S. unipolarity or at least its preponderance of power after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, the current state of affairs is a great change. While U.S.-China relations represent a set of the most important variables in world politics, the meaning of China’s rise is much greater in the East Asian regional order. The Korean Peninsula, of course, cannot escape from the influence of its neighbors. Although the world order of the 1990s saw the unprecedented economic prosperity and overwhelming military power of the United States, the recent order has been characterized by the relative decline of the United States and the fast and strong rise of China. The Chinese economy has grown more than 10 percent per year for the last thirty years and is now the world's second-largest economy. Although the Chinese GDP is still only one-third that of the United States, as TABLE 1 shows, it is not at all unheard of to say that China may economically catch up with the superpower by 2030. Moreover, China's trade with Northeast Asian countries is much larger than that of the United States. As TABLE 2 shows, China's exports and imports with South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan are almost twice as large when compared with those of the United States. Given America's economic recession and China's incessant growth, the gap between the two is likely to get much larger. China's increasing economic interdependence with regional powers will have a great effect on the changing balance of power in the region, and will have a much greater effect on the Korean Peninsula. On the other hand, China has also made every effort to build up its military capability. Supported by its strong economic growth, Chinese military spending has been hugely increased, more than 10 percent per year on average. China spent 40 billion U.S. dollars in 2001, but it spent 119 billion in 2010, an increase of almost three times in ten years. TABLE 3 indicates that Chinese military spending is still less than one sixth compared to the American figure, but one must recognize that while the United States plans to cut its military spending in the next decade due to its budget deficit, China is certain to keep increasing its, unless its economy falls into deep trouble in the near future.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Military Strategy, and GDP
Political Geography:: China, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

455. Functional Distribution of Income and Economic Growth in the Chinese Economy, 1978-2007

Author:: Ricardo Molero Simarro
Publication Date:: 02-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:: This paper seeks to analyse the relationship between functional distribution of income, aggregate demand and growth in Chinese reform economy. For this purpose the Bhaduri-Marglin Model is used, stating the theoretical possibility of both profit-led and wage- led growth regimes. Subsequently, the principal literature on the evolution of factor‟s shares in China is reviewed. The statistical series for the period 1978-2007 are reconstructed in order to carry out our analysis of the relations between capital‟s share and investment, on one hand; and labour‟s share and consumption, on the other. Supported by the Model‟s preliminary estimations, it is argued that Chinese growth has been largely profit-driven. Finally, the implications are presented vis-a-vis concerning Chinese economic prospects.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Reform, and Investment
Political Geography:: China and Asia

456. Patient Preferences, Concerns, and Satisfaction with Providers before the Chinese Urban Health System Reform: A Social Groups Analysis

Author:: Qunhong Shen and Liyang Tang
Publication Date:: 09-2010
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: Many Chinese express dissatisfaction with their healthcare system with the popular phrase Kan bing nan, kan bing gui ("medical treatment is difficult to access and expensive"). Critics have cited inefficiencies in delivery and poor quality of services. Determining the pattern of patient satisfaction with health services in China-and the causes of patient dissatisfaction-may help to improve health care not only in China but in countries in similar predicaments throughout the world.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, Social Stratification, and Health Care Policy
Political Geography:: China

457. U.S. BITs and financial stability

Author:: Kevin P. Gallagher
Publication Date:: 02-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: Almost immediately after taking office, the Obama administration charged the U.S. Department of State's Advisory Committee on International Economic Policy with reviewing the U.S. Model bilateral investment treaty (BIT). The group established a sub-committee of business groups, labor and environmental organizations, and a handful of academic experts and tasked it to make official recommendations for reforming U.S. investment treaties. When completed, the Obama Administration hopes to proceed with official negotiations with China, India, Vietnam, and possibly Brazil.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: United States, China, India, Brazil, and Vietnam

458. International investment law and media disputes: a complement to WTO law

Author:: Luke Eric Peterson
Publication Date:: 01-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: The recent high-stakes dispute between Google and China over censorship and cyber-security has spawned renewed discussion of the international trade law protections that internet and media companies may enjoy. Less recognized, however, is a perhaps more powerful legal tool in the arsenal of internet and media companies engaging in cross-border investment s, namely international investment law.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Mass Media, and Law
Political Geography:: China

459. In Search of Legitimacy in Post-revolutionary China: Bringing Ideology and Governance Back In

Author:: Heike Holbig and Bruce Gilley
Publication Date:: 03-2010
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:: The contemporary politics of China reflect an ongoing effort by the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to claim the right to rule in light of the consequences of economic development, international pressures, and historical change. China stands out within the Asian region for the success the regime has achieved in this effort. By focusing on the changes in China elite discourse during the reform period and particularly during the last decade, this paper aims to elaborate on the relative importance of various sources of legitimacy as they shift over time, as well as on their inherent dilemmas and limitations. There is evidence of an agile, responsive, and creative party effort to relegitimate the post-revolutionary regime through economic performance, nationalism, ideology, culture, governance, and democracy. At the same time, the paper identifies a clear shift in emphasis from an earlier economic‐nationalistic approach to a more ideological-institutional approach.
Topic:: Communism, Development, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:: China and Asia

460. The Sustainability of China's Recovery from the Global Recession

Author:: Nicholas R. Lardy
Publication Date:: 03-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: China's policy response to the global financial and economic crisis was early, large, and well-designed. Although Chinese financial institutions had little exposure to the toxic financial assets that brought down many large Western investment banks and other financial firms, China's leadership recognized that its dependence on exports meant that it was acutely vulnerable to a global recession. Thus they did not subscribe to the view sometimes described as “decoupling,” the idea that Asian countries could passively weather the financial storm that originated in the United States and other advanced industrial economies. They understood that absent a vigorous policy response China inevitably would suffer from the backwash of a sharp economic slowdown in its largest export markets—the United States and Europe.
Topic:: Economics and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: United States, China, Europe, and Asia

461. New PPP-Based Estimates of Renminbi Undervaluation and Policy Implications

Author:: Arvind Subramanian
Publication Date:: 04-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Is there reason to add to the proliferating set of estimates on the extent of renminbi undervaluation (see among others, Bergsten 2010; Cline and Williamson 2008 and 2010; Goldstein and Lardy 2008 and 2009; Frankel 2008; Reisen 2009; and Lee et al. 2008)? Yes, not least because these new estimates: (1) suggest that purchasing power parity (PPP)-based approaches to measuring renminbi undervaluation suggest that China's currency is undervalued by about 30 percent against the dollar and not the 12 percent recently reported (Bajaj 2010); and (2) are closer to and consistent with alternative approaches to estimating renminbi undervaluation.
Topic:: Economics, Foreign Exchange, International Political Economy, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:: China

462. Developing Countries – even China – Cannot Rescue the World Economy

Author:: Manmohan Agarwal
Publication Date:: 01-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: Many analysts believe that developed countries will recover very slowly from the global economic crisis. Consequently, they have looked to the emerging economies of the developing world to help stabilize the world economy and generate a stronger recovery. Indeed, when the financial crisis first engulfed the rich countries in 2008 and early 2009, growth in developing economies was not affected as their banks and financial systems faced neither credit problems nor a more serious meltdown. It is true that some foreign investors, particularly institutional investors, withdrew their money from developing countries with large stock exchanges, setting off stock price declines and some currency devaluations. But this did not affect the “real” economy of production and employment. There was a wide belief that many developing economies were “decoupled” from the rich economies and could continue to grow and this growth would buoy the world economy. Even when output declined dramatically in the developed economies, reducing the demand for developing countries' exports, it was expected that growth in the larger emerging economies would not be significantly affected. This has been borne out by subsequent events. Growth in China has been 8-9 percent and in India about 6 percent in the first three quarters of 2009.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: China and India

463. The Brussels Wall

Author:: William Drozdiak
Publication Date:: 05-2010
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Foreign Affairs
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: These days, there is a great deal of talk about the dawn of an Asian century -- hastened by the rise of China and India. Meanwhile, the fractious Atlantic alliance, enfeebled by two wars and an economic crisis, is said to be fading away. But the West is not doomed to decline as a center of power and influence. A relatively simple strategic fix could reinvigorate the historic bonds between Europe and North America and reestablish the West's dominance: it is time to bring together the West's principal institutions, the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. When NATO's 28 leaders gather in Portugal later this year to draw up a new security strategy for the twenty-first century, they will consider a range of options, including military partnerships with distant allies such as Australia, Japan, and South Korea. Yet the most practical solution lies just down the road from the alliance's sprawling headquarters near the Brussels airport. Genuine cooperation between NATO and the 27-nation European Union would allow Western governments to meld hard power with soft, making both organizations better equipped to confront modern threats, such as climate change, failed states, and humanitarian disasters. A revitalized Atlantic alliance is by far the most effective way for the United States and Europe to shore up their global influence in the face of emerging Asian powers. NOT-SO-FRIENDLY NEIGHBORS Anybody who spends time in Brussels comes away mystified by the lack of dialogue between the West's two most important multinational organizations, even though they have been based in the same city for decades. Only a few years ago, it was considered a minor miracle when the EU's foreign policy czar and NATO's secretary-general decided that they should have breakfast together once a month. An EU planning cell is now ensconced at NATO military headquarters, but there is scarcely any other communication between the two institutions. With Europe and the United States facing common threats from North Africa to the Hindu Kush, it is imperative for Western nations to take advantage of these two organizations' resources in the fields of law enforcement, counterterrorism, intelligence gathering, drug interdiction, and even agricultural policy.
Topic:: NATO, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, North America, and Brussels

464. The Geography of Chinese Power

Author:: Robert D. Kaplan
Publication Date:: 05-2010
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Foreign Affairs
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: The English geographer Sir Halford Mackinder ended his famous 1904 article, "The Geographical Pivot of History," with a disturbing reference to China. After explaining why Eurasia was the geostrategic fulcrum of world power, he posited that the Chinese, should they expand their power well beyond their borders, "might constitute the yellow peril to the world's freedom just because they would add an oceanic frontage to the resources of the great continent, an advantage as yet denied to the Russian tenant of the pivot region." Leaving aside the sentiment's racism, which was common for the era, as well as the hysterics sparked by the rise of a non-Western power at any time, Mackinder had a point: whereas Russia, that other Eurasian giant, basically was, and is still, a land power with an oceanic front blocked by ice, China, owing to a 9,000-mile temperate coastline with many good natural harbors, is both a land power and a sea power. (Mackinder actually feared that China might one day conquer Russia.) China's virtual reach extends from Central Asia, with all its mineral and hydrocarbon wealth, to the main shipping lanes of the Pacific Ocean. Later, in Democratic Ideals and Reality, Mackinder predicted that along with the United States and the United Kingdom, China would eventually guide the world by "building for a quarter of humanity a new civilization, neither quite Eastern nor quite Western."
Topic:: Development and Economics
Political Geography:: Russia, China, and Eurasia

465. Bigger Is Better

Author:: Richard Rosecrance
Publication Date:: 05-2010
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Foreign Affairs
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: Throughout history, states have generally sought to get larger, usually through the use of force. In the 1970s and 1980s, however, countervailing trends briefly held sway. Smaller countries, such as Japan, West Germany, and the "Asian tigers," attained international prominence as they grew faster than giants such as the United States and the Soviet Union. These smaller countries -- what I have called "trading states" -- did not have expansionist territorial ambitions and did not try to project military power abroad. While the United States was tangled up in Vietnam and the Soviet Union in Afghanistan, trading states concentrated on gaining economic access to foreign territories, rather than political control. And they were quite successful. But eventually the trading-state model ran into unexpected problems. Japanese growth stalled during the 1990s as U.S. growth and productivity surged. Many trading states were rocked by the Asian financial crisis of 1997-98, during which international investors took their money and went home. Because Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and other relatively small countries did not have enough foreign capital to withstand the shock, they had to go into receivership. As Alan Greenspan, then the U.S. Federal Reserve chair, put it in 1999, "East Asia had no spare tires." Governments there devalued their currencies and adopted high interest rates to survive, and they did not regain their former glory afterward. Russia, meanwhile, fell afoul of its creditors. And when Moscow could not pay back its loans, Russian government bonds went down the drain. Russia's problem was that although its territory was vast, its economy was small. China, India, and even Japan, on the other hand, had plenty of access to cash and so their economies remained steady. The U.S. market scarcely rippled.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: United States, China, India, Asia, Vietnam, and Germany

466. Top of the Class

Author:: Richard C. Levin
Publication Date:: 05-2010
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Foreign Affairs
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: The rapid economic development of Asia since World War II -- starting with Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, then extending to Hong Kong and Singapore, and finally taking hold powerfully in India and mainland China -- has forever altered the global balance of power. These countries recognize the importance of an educated work force to economic growth, and they understand that investing in research makes their economies more innovative and competitive. Beginning in the 1960s, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan sought to provide their populations with greater access to postsecondary education, and they achieved impressive results. Today, China and India have an even more ambitious agenda. Both seek to expand their higher-education systems, and since the late 1990s, China has done so dramatically. They are also aspiring to create a limited number of world-class universities. In China, the nine universities that receive the most supplemental government funding recently self-identified as the C9 -- China's Ivy League. In India, the Ministry of Human Resource Development recently announced its intention to build 14 new comprehensive universities of "world-class" stature. Other Asian powers are eager not to be left behind: Singapore is planning a new public university of technology and design, in addition to a new American-style liberal arts college affiliated with the National University. Such initiatives suggest that governments in Asia understand that overhauling their higher-education systems is required to sustain economic growth in a postindustrial, knowledge-based global economy. They are making progress by investing in research, reforming traditional approaches to curricula and pedagogy, and beginning to attract outstanding faculty from abroad. Many challenges remain, but it is more likely than not that by midcentury the top Asian universities will stand among the best universities in the world.
Topic:: Development, Economics, and War
Political Geography:: Japan, China, Taiwan, and South Korea

467. The Global Financial Crisis and Africa's "Immiserizing Wealth"

Author:: Luc Soete and Alexis Habiyaremye
Publication Date:: 01-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Before the current global recession, many resource-rich African countries were recording unprecedented levels of growth due to a raw material price boom. However, the collapse in raw material prices and the ensuing severe economic difficulties have again exposed the vulnerability of these countries' natural resource export-focussed economic structures. In this research brief, we describe how Africa's abundance of natural resources attracted disruptive and predatory foreign forces that have hindered innovation-based growth and economic diversification by delaying the accumulation of sufficient stocks of human capital. We suggest that for their long-term prosperity, resource-rich African countries shift their strategic emphasis from natural to human resources and technological capabilities needed to transform those natural resources into valuable goods and services to compete in the global market.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, Industrial Policy, Global Recession, Natural Resources, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Africa, China, and India

468. Are the Chinese in Africa More Innovative than the Africans? Comparing Chinese and Nigerian Entrepreneurial Migrants' Cultures of Innovation

Author:: Dirk Kohnert
Publication Date:: 07-2010
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:: The remarkable influx of Chinese migrant entrepreneurs in West Africa has been met with growing resistance from established African entrepreneurs. Whether the former have a competitive edge over the latter because of distinctive sociocultural traits or whether the Chineseʹ s supposed effectiveness is just a characteristic feature of any trading diaspora is open to question. This comparative exploratory study of Chinese and Nigerian entrepreneurial migrants in Ghana and Benin provides initial answers to these questions. Apparently, the cultural stimuli for migrant drivers of change are not restricted to inherited value systems or religions, such as a Protestant ethic or Confucianism; rather, they are continually adapted and invented anew by transnational migration networks in a globalized world. There is no evidence of the supposed superiority of the innovative culture of Chinese entrepreneurial migrants versus that of African entrepreneurial migrants. Rather, there exist trading diasporas which have a generally enhanced innovative capacity vis‐à‐vis local entrepreneurs, regardless of the national culture in which they are embedded. In addition, the rivalry of Chinese and Nigerian migrant entrepreneurs in African markets does not necessarily lead to the often suspected cut‐throat competition. Often the actions of each group are complementary to those of the other. Under certain conditions they even contribute to poverty alleviation in the host country.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, and Migration
Political Geography:: Africa and China

469. Deepening China-Taiwan Relations through the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement

Author:: Daniel H. Rosen
Publication Date:: 06-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: On Sunday, June 13, 2010 representatives from China and Taiwan held a third round of talks in Beijing on an Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) that would liberalize important aspects of cross-Strait economic relations. Details of what was agreed and what remains under negotiation are still trickling out, and in any case the nature of this framework is that various elements will be agreed upon on an ongoing basis rather than at once. But it is clear from available details that ECFA will be an ambitious accord that fundamentally changes the game between Taiwan and China and hence affects the regional economy and even the transpacific tempo for the United States.
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Taiwan

470. The Chinese Defense Economy's Long March from Imitation to Innovation

Author:: Tai Ming Cheung
Publication Date:: 09-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
Abstract:: Since the beginning of the twenty-first century, China's defense science, technology, and innovation (DSTI) system has been vigorously developing a comprehensive set of innovation capabilities that will eventually allow it to join the world's top tier of military technological powers. Ample access to financial, human, and research resources; strong political support; inflows of foreign technologies and know-how; and the introduction of advanced modes of governance, market competition, and management are producing significant progress, although from a low base. But long-term success is far from assured as daunting structural bottlenecks stand in the way, not the least of which is the struggle to overcome a long history of debilitating Socialist central planning.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Economics, Markets, Science and Technology, and Governance
Political Geography:: China and Asia

471. China's Defense Electronics Industry: Innovation, Adaptation, and Espionage

Author:: James Mulvenon and Matthew Luce
Publication Date:: 09-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
Abstract:: Contrary to popular perceptions of China as either "technology thief" or "technology superpower," the success of the Chinese defense electronics sector can be attributed to a combination of indigenous innovation, adaptation of foreign technology, and large-scale technology espionage. Advanced defense electronics components and systems play a key role in this revolution in military capability, making it imperative to understand the strengths and weaknesses of the Chinese defense electronics industry and their implications for U.S. interests in the region.
Topic:: Economics, Science and Technology, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Asia

472. Spin-On for the Renaissance? The Current State of China's Nuclear Industry

Author:: Jing-dong Yuan
Publication Date:: 09-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
Abstract:: China's nuclear industry has undergone rapid growth in recent years and is projected to further expand in the coming decades. Accounting for almost 40 percent of all nuclear reactors either under construction or that have been approved globally, the expansion of China's nuclear capacities has largely been driven by increasing demands for energy to support continued economic growth. Constraints include human resources, fuel supply, and the extent to which China can develop indigenous nuclear power capacities. The role of civil-military integration in this industry is yet to be determined partly as a result of the deliberate decision by Beijing to keep its nuclear weapons segment separate from its civilian operations.
Topic:: Economics, Nuclear Weapons, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:: China and Asia

473. The Current State of European Union-China High-Tech Cooperation

Author:: May-Britt U. Stumbaum and Oliver Bräuner
Publication Date:: 09-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
Abstract:: In line with the European policy of supporting China\'s economic reform and development, research institutes and companies in the European Union (EU) have been the major sources for high-technology exports to the People\'s Republic of China in the past thirty years. Dual-use technologies ranging from aerospace to semiconductors play a central role for economic development as well as for modern military development, including network-centric warfare. Yet a comprehensive EU paradigm on China\'s military rise and the impact of these technology transfers has not evolved. The EU–China "strategic partnership" is still dominated by economic considerations. Lack of coordination between the national and the European level contribute to the risks accompanying EU–China collaboration in this field. The differences between EU and U.S. perceptions of China\'s military rise provide potential for further Transatlantic discord, as happened during the acrimonious debate on the intended lifting of the EU arms embargo on China in 2004–2005.
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, Science and Technology, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and Asia

474. Constructing a Post-Communist Economic Order

Author:: David Szakonyi
Publication Date:: 06-2010
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of International Affairs
Institution:: School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:: In addition to being the largest country outside of the trading bloc, Russia has also recently achieved another undesirable distinction in the annals of the World Trade Organization (WTO): the longest candidacy bid at over sixteen years, surpassing China's previous record. Russian leaders have notably fluctuated in their desire for entry and their demands along the WTO accession journey, leading to serious uncertainty about where the entire process is headed. Rising interest in regional organizations such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Eurasian Economic Community may even herald the decline of the supremacy of Western institutions, at least among many states in Eurasia. Deciphering how post-Soviet states determine their policies in the international arena is a treacherous affair, but an important one for the economic order.
Topic:: Economics and World Trade Organization
Political Geography:: Russia, China, and Eurasia

475. Toward Realistic U.S.–India Relations

Author:: George Perkovich
Publication Date:: 10-2010
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: As he prepares to visit India in November, President Obama faces criticism that his administration has done too little to enhance U.S.–Indian relations. Pundits of this persuasion in Washington and New Delhi complain that Obama\'s team has tried too hard to cooperate with China in addressing regional and global challenges and has not done enough to bolster India.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States, China, Washington, India, Asia, and New Delhi

476. The Evolution of Russian Conceptual and Political Models of High Technology Cooperation

Author:: Ivan V. Danilin
Publication Date:: 04-2010
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Connections
Institution:: Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:: International cooperation in the area of high technology—in design and development, manufacturing, and distribution—is one of the most important features of the current state of innovation around the world. Outsourcing, the ability to search for talent globally, the lowering of costs by transferring production facilities to developing countries, the evolution of global supply chains, venture capitalists' tireless search for fresh ideas all over the world—all these and numerous other processes combine to shape the reality of modern highly internationalized, collaborative, and interconnected activities involved in developing innovative new technologies. Even during the recent global economic crisis, these trends persisted. In spite of the fact that Western multinational corporations (MNCs) dominate the market and still are key players in these processes, companies from China and other developing nations are actively joining the game. Russia, which has declared its intention to regain (on a new footing) its former leader- ship role in science and technology, is also looking at international cooperation in the area of high technology as a powerful and important instrument for the development of national networks of innovation and a strong innovative economy, in hopes of securing a significant future market share in global sales of high-technology goods and services. But unlike many other nations, Russia's path, strategies, and modes of cooperation are still in transition, and are affected not only by the logic of the globalized economy, but also by different political and economic challenges inherited from previous decades, as well as by the political visions of different groups of national elites.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: Russia and China

477. The Economy of Burma/Myanmar on the Eve of the 2010 Elections

Author:: Lex Rieffel
Publication Date:: 07-2010
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The government of Burma is undergoing a critical transition: Before the end of 2010, the military regime that has ruled the country since a palace coup in 1998 will hold an election based on a constitution drafted in a nondemocratic process and approved by a referendum in 2008. The referendum fell far short of global standards of credibility and the election is likely to yield a government that neither the antimilitary movement nor the international community view as legitimate. However, the constitution and election also may offer opportunities for further international involvement that began in the wake of Cyclone Nargis in 2008. Burma's lagging economic performance—socioeconomic indicators placed it among the world's most impoverished in 2000—is due to a simmering internal conflict based on ethnic and religious differences. Successive military regimes after the failure of Burma's parliamentary government in 1962 have managed to further alienate the population and monopolize the benefits of Burma's abundant natural resources. Growth-disabling economic policies and brutal suppression of dissent since 1988 have caused an exodus of political and economic refugees estimated to be in excess of 3 million. However, Burma occupies a strategic space in the Southeast Asian region. It is a major supplier of natural gas to Thailand and could be a major agricultural exporter, as it was before World War II. Also, Burma is arguably the greatest obstacle to the 2015 integration objectives of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and its internal conflict contributes to tension between China and India. There is a glimmer of hope that the next government will consider economic policies conducive to sustainable economic growth, thereby improving the environment for political reconciliation. If so, the challenge for the international community will be to find ways to support economic policy changes in this direction that do not trigger a backlash from the country's military rulers. Though difficult, it may be possible to accomplish this through a patient economic strategy that involves more nuanced use of sanctions and effective collaboration with other actors in the region, particularly ASEAN.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Economics, and Human Rights
Political Geography:: China, India, Burma, Southeast Asia, and Myanmar

478. Renminbi Undervaluation, China's Surplus, and the US Trade Deficit

Author:: William R. Cline
Publication Date:: 08-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: On June 21, 2010, in the run-up to the G-20 meeting in Toronto, China announced that it would shift to a more flexible exchange rate policy. From mid-June to July 30 the yuan rose 0.8 percent against the dollar. In contrast, the currency had remained fixed (at about 6.83 yuan to the dollar) from September 2008 to early June 2010. Pressure not only from the United States and the European Union but also from Russia, Brazil, and India as well as the IMF seems likely to have played a role in China's decision, although concerns about domestic inflation may also have been a factor.
Topic:: Economics and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:: United States and China

479. Will China relocate its labor-intensive factories to Africa, flying-geese style?

Author:: Terutomo Ozawa and Christian Bellak
Publication Date:: 08-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: China has developed increasingly close economic relations with Africa in its quest for oil and minerals through investment and aid. The World Ban k recently called upon China to transplant labor-intensive factories onto the continent. A question arises as to whether such an industrial relocation will be done in such a fashion to jump-start local economic development—as previously seen across East Asia and as described in the flying-geese (FG) paradigm of FD.
Topic:: Development, Economics, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:: Africa and China

480. The United States and the Rise of China: Implications for the Long Haul

Author:: Robert J. Art
Publication Date:: 09-2010
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Political Science Quarterly
Institution:: Academy of Political Science
Abstract:: Today, economically wounded though it is, the United States nonetheless remains the world ʼ s most powerful state when power is measured in terms of economic and military assets. In the future, the U.S. economy will continue to grow, and the United States will remain the most powerful military nation on earth for some time to come. However, America ʼ s economic and military edge relative to the world ʼ s other great powers, will inevitably diminish over the next several decades.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: United States and China

481. Interdependency Theory: China, India and the West

Author:: Simon Tay
Publication Date:: 09-2010
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Foreign Affairs
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Government, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: China and India

482. Verschiebungen der globalen Machtverhältnisse durch den Aufstieg von Regionalen Führungsmächten. China, Indien, Brasilien und Südafrika im Vergleich

Author:: Robert Kappel
Publication Date:: 09-2010
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:: A number of regional powers are becoming important international actors and are changing the coordinates of world politics and the global economy. The political and economicshift in favor of these regional powers has been accompanied by the relative loss of importance of the US, Japan, and the EU. The latter countries are increasingly challenged by the economic growth and the geostrategical actions of the regional powers. As the conception of and debates on regional powers have been led by political science, this paper aims to contribute to the discussion from an economics perspective. Based on the discussion of different concepts of economic power–such as those of Schumpeter, Perroux, Predöhl, or Kindleberger–concepts of technological leadership, and the global value chain approaches, the paper develops a research framework for the economics of regional powers. This framework is then tested using descriptive statistics as well as regressions analysis, with a focus on the four regional powers Brazil, China, India, and South Africa. As economic power is relational, the relationship of regional powers to other nations in the region is analyzed. According to the findings, only limited conclusions on the economics of regional powers are possible: a regional power can be described as an economy with a relatively large population and land area which plays a dominant role in trade within the region and in the regional governance. The regional power develops its technological capacities, and its businesses act regionally and globally with increasing strength.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, Globalization, International Political Economy, and Power Politics
Political Geography:: China, India, and Brazil

483. Rebuilding America Through Exports

Author:: M. Osman Siddique
Publication Date:: 09-2010
Content Type:: Journal Article
Institution:: Council of American Ambassadors
Abstract:: In his State of the Union address, President Obama noted his intention to double US exports to grow our economy out of this recession. As a businessman and former US Ambassador, I could not agree more. This speech must be a clarion call. Millions of Americans are jobless, many thousands have lost homes, and we all— Democrats and Republicans—see the future with great concern and anxiety. Wall Street is shaky and Main Street is miles from revival. Can we rise to the challenge posed by new major competitors like China, India, Russia, etc.? Yes we can, but we clearly need a major shift in our economic strategy and foreign commercial trade policy.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, China, America, and India

484. The G-20 and International Financial Institution Governance

Author:: Edwin M. Truman
Publication Date:: 09-2010
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: This paper addresses the agenda for the Group of Twenty (G-20) leaders' meeting in Seoul, Korea in November 2010. This is an opportunity and challenge for Asian leaders in particular. Their test will be, first, to demonstrate that they can responsibly advance economic recovery. They must also deliver on institutional reform, in particular of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). I advocate a substantial expansion of the IMF's role as lender of last resort that is integrated with the surveillance role of the IMF in the form of comprehensive prequalification for IMF assistance and policy advice and a substantial increase in the IMF's financial resources. I also propose an approach to meaningful reform of the distribution of IMF quotas along with limiting European seats on the IMF executive board.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, Global Recession, Financial Crisis, and Governance
Political Geography:: China, Israel, Asia, and Korea

485. What will an appreciation of China's currency do to inward and outward FDI?

Author:: Karl P. Sauvant and Ken Davies
Publication Date:: 10-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: What will an appreciation of the Chinese yuan do to China's inward and outward direct investment? The discussion so far has been almost exclusively about the impact on China's trade balance. But it is at least as important to see what effect it may have on the country's inward foreign direct investment (IFDI), which plays such a crucial role in China's economic development, and its outward FDI (OFDI), which is receiving increased attention worldwide.
Topic:: Economics, Foreign Exchange, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: China

486. US-China Relations

Author:: Bonnie Glases
Publication Date:: 01-2010
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: President Obama's first-ever trip to China was the main attraction of the fourth quarter. In addition to meeting Chinese leaders, Obama held a town hall-style assembly with Chinese students in Shanghai. The two sides signed a joint statement, the first in 12 years, which highlighted the depth and breadth of the relationship and promised greater cooperation. Nevertheless, the US media mostly faulted the president for not making sufficiently concrete progress on a number of problems. The Copenhagen climate talks garnered much attention in December. As the two largest emitters of CO2, negotiations between China and the US not only occupied the meeting's spotlight, but also ultimately decided its outcome. Trade friction continued to intensify with both countries launching new investigations and imposing duties on several products. The bilateral military relationship took a step forward with the visit to the US by Xu Caihou, vice chairman of China's powerful Central Military Commission.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, and China

487. China-Southeast Asia Relations

Author:: Robert Sutter and Chin-Hao Huang
Publication Date:: 01-2010
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The last quarter of 2009 featured high-level Chinese leadership diplomacy with individual Southeast Asian countries, ASEAN, and Asian regional multilateral groups. Salient meetings involved the ASEAN Plus 1 and Asian leadership summits in Thailand in October, a presidential visit to Malaysia and Singapore, including the APEC leaders meeting in Singapore in November, and high-level visits to Australia in late October, and Myanmar and Cambodia in December. Chinese official media commentary showed some concern over recently heightened US and Japanese diplomatic activism in the region. The South China Sea disputes and military tensions along the China-Myanmar border were much less prominent than earlier in the year.
Topic:: Development and Economics
Political Geography:: China, Australia, Singapore, and Southeast Asia

488. China-Taiwan Relations

Author:: David G. Brown
Publication Date:: 01-2010
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Taipei and Beijing resumed progress on economic issues by completing the Memorandums of Understanding (MOUs) on cooperation in regulating the financial sector and signing three technical agreements at the fourth round of SEF-ARATS talks. Informal talks concerning an Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) continued but no date for starting formal negotiation has been announced. While the pace of progress is now slow largely because reaching compromises on substantive economic issues has proven to be time-consuming, these agreements further integrate the two economies. Taipei has continued to resist pressure from Beijing to address political issues about which opinion in Taiwan remains deeply divided. Cross-Strait trade has recovered quickly from the precipitous drop a year ago and should surpass its pre-recession peak in December. Slow progress is likely to continue in the coming months.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: China

489. China-Korea Relations

Author:: Scott Snyder and See-Won Byun
Publication Date:: 01-2010
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The last quarter of 2009 raised hopes for developments in China's relations with both Koreas. Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping received head-of-state treatment during his mid-December visit to South Korea. In Seoul, Xi presented a series of proposals to further the China-ROK strategic cooperative partnership, including pressing for a free trade agreement. President Lee Myung-bak and Premier Wen Jiabao held bilateral talks on Oct. 10 in Beijing on the sidelines of the China-ROK-Japan trilateral summit, which Lee used to promote his “grand bargain” on North Korean denuclearization. There were also several exchanges between China and the DPRK. In early October, Premier Wen led a large delegation to Pyongyang and proposed a comprehensive set of deals with North Korea. As the first Chinese premier to visit Pyongyang in 18 years, Wen was warmly hosted by Kim Jong-il. Following Wen's visit, the director of the United Front Department of the Workers' Party of Korea (WPK) and Pyongyang's official in charge of inter-Korean relations, Kim Yang-gon, made a five-day trip to China. President Hu Jintao reportedly extended a formal invitation to Kim Jong-il to visit China “at a convenient time” at his meeting with Choe Thae-bok, secretary of the WPK Central Committee and one of Kim's closest aides, who led a WPK delegation to Beijing in late October.
Topic:: Development and Economics
Political Geography:: China and Korea

490. China-Russia Relations

Author:: Yu Bin
Publication Date:: 01-2010
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The last month of 2009 was significant for petro-politics on the Eurasian continent. In mid-December, the 1,800 km Turkmenistan-Uzbekistan-Kazakhstan-China natural gas pipeline went into operation. It connects with the 4,500 km West-East trunk line inside China and has an annual capacity of 40 billion cubic meters. Two weeks later, Prime Minister Putin officially commissioned the first section (about 2,700 km from Taishet in eastern Siberia to Skovorodino in the Amur region) of the nearly 5,000 km Eastern Siberia-Pacific-Ocean (ESPO) oil pipeline to the newly built Kozmino oil port near Vladivostok, where the first batch of Siberian crude was being loaded on the 100,000-ton oil tanker Moscow University bound for Hong Kong. Thus, Moscow and Beijing significantly elevated their postures in the global game of energy diversification for both buyers and sellers. Both pipelines were built during the tenure of President-turned-Prime-Minister Putin. His October visit to China resulted in a dozen high-value commercial deals, but also reflected his 10-year legacy in shaping Russian-Chinese relations and their mutual perceptions.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: China, Eurasia, Kazakhstan, Beijing, Uzbekistan, Moscow, Turkmenistan, and Hong Kong

491. Regional Overview

Author:: Ralph A. Cossa and Brad Glosserman
Publication Date:: 03-2010
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Last quarter we focused on remarks by US President Barack Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton proclaiming that “America is back in Asia,” an obvious dig at real and perceived neglect of Asia by the previous administration. This quarter, both were forced to postpone planned trips to Asia although, in Secretary Clinton's case, not before giving a major Asia policy address in Honolulu. This quarter also ended the same as last, amid hints that Pyongyang really would, at some not too distant point (but not this past quarter), return to six-party deliberations. On a more positive note, it looks like arms control agreements are on the way back, following the announcement that the US and Russia had finally come to terms on a new strategic arms agreement, to be signed by both presidents in April. Speculation about the “changing balance of power” in Asia also continues as a result of China's economic resilience and apparent newfound confidence, although it still seems premature to announce that the Middle Kingdom is back, given the challenges highlighted at this year's National Peoples' Congress. Political normalcy also appears to be a long way from returning to Bangkok where the “red shirts” have once again taken to the street, prompting the government to declare a state of emergency.
Topic:: Economics and Government
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, China, America, Asia, and Bangkok

492. US-China Relations

Author:: Bonnie Glaser and David Szerlip
Publication Date:: 03-2010
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: After a relatively smooth period in US-China relations through the first year of the Obama administration, the “honeymoon” ended in the first quarter of 2010. The new year brought new frictions and returned to the spotlight many problem areas. The quarter began with an unexpected announcement from an unlikely player in China-US relations: Google, the internet giant, reported extensive hacking of its networks traced back to China and then redirected Google.cn users to its Hong Kong site to evade Chinese censorship. Tensions were further stoked by the administration's notification to Congress of a major weapons sale to Taiwan and President Obama's meeting with the Dalai Lama. Throughout the quarter, economic frictions intensified, particularly over the valuation of China's currency. Despite these numerous difficulties, the quarter closed with the pendulum swinging back toward the center. At the end of March, President Obama and Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg both reaffirmed the US commitment to a positive relationship with China; Beijing announced that President Hu would attend a major international nuclear security summit in the US in April 2010; and Obama and Hu, in a friendly phone call, renewed their determination to sustain healthy and stable ties.
Topic:: Economics and Health
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Hong Kong

493. China-Taiwan Relations

Author:: David G. Brown
Publication Date:: 03-2010
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The interaction between economic negotiations and Taiwan domestic politics will dominate cross-Strait relations this year. Formal negotiation of an Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) began in January and both sides now talk hopefully of completing the negotiations by June. On Taiwan, recent election losses make timely conclusion of the ECFA on terms welcomed by Taiwan voters important for President Ma Ying-jeou and the Kuomintang (KMT) party's political fortunes. The announcement of a US arms sales package in January was welcomed by Ma, but predictably created tensions in US-China relations – tensions that raise the stakes when the Obama administration considers Taiwan's request for F-16 C/D aircraft.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Taiwan

494. China-Korea Relations

Author:: Scott Snyder
Publication Date:: 09-2010
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: China reaffirmed its traditional friendship with a revamped leadership in Pyongyang that emerged from the historic Workers' Party of Korea (WPK) conference that re-elected Kim Jong-il as party and state leader. Kim Jong-il visited Northeast China, holding his second summit with President Hu Jintao this year. Immediately after Pyongyang's party conference, Secretary of the WPK Central Committee Choe Tae-bok led a senior party delegation to Beijing to brief President Hu and other officials. Meanwhile, China-ROK relations remain strained following the March 26 Cheonan incident, marking the lowest point in bilateral relations since diplomatic normalization in 1992. The third China-ROK high-level strategic dialogue was held in Beijing. China and South Korea also held their first preliminary round of free trade agreement talks. Beijing promoted resumption of the Six-Party Talks, sending Special Representative for Korean Peninsula Affairs Wu Dawei to meet counterparts in Pyongyang and Seoul.
Topic:: Security and Economics
Political Geography:: China, Beijing, and Korea

495. Japan-China Relations

Author:: James J. Przystup
Publication Date:: 09-2010
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The quarter started well. The Kan government, emphasizing efforts to strengthen economic ties with China, appointed Niwa Uchiro, former president of the trading giant Itochu Corp., as Japan‟s new ambassador to China. Talks to implement the June 2008 agreement on joint development of the East China Sea began in Tokyo in late July. Prime Minister Kan and all Cabinet members refrained from visiting Yasukuni Shrine on Aug. 15. In early September, Japan began the destruction of chemical weapons left behind in China by the Imperial Army at the end of the war. The quarter, however, ended in controversy. Sparked by the Sept. 7 incident in which a Chinese fishing boat operating near the Senkaku Islands collided with two Japanese Coast Guard ships, relations quickly spiraled downward. The Japanese Coast Guard detained the captain and crew setting off a diplomatic row that led to the Japanese ambassador being called in for a midnight demarche as well as the personal involvement of Premier Wen Jiabao before Japanese prosecutors released the ship's captain on Sept. 24. China's call for compensation and an apology went unanswered as of the end of the quarter.
Topic:: Economics and Government
Political Geography:: Japan and China

496. Globalizing the Energy Revolution

Author:: Michael Levi, Adam Segal, Elizabeth C. Economy, and Shannon O'Neil
Publication Date:: 11-2010
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Foreign Affairs
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: Clean-energy technology is expensive and the United States is spending far too little on developing it. The U.S. government must do more to promote cross-border innovation and protect intellectual property rights.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: United States and China

497. The Game Changer

Author:: Elizabeth C. Economy
Publication Date:: 11-2010
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Foreign Affairs
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: As China's economic might expands, Beijing not only wants a greater stake in international organizations but also to remake the rules of the game.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: China and Beijing

498. Political Performance and Provincial Governors' Promotion in China from 1999 to 2007

Author:: An Li
Publication Date:: 09-2010
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Alternatives: Turkish Journal of International Relations
Institution:: Center for International Conflict Resolution at Yalova University
Abstract:: This paper mainly focuses on the mobility of the 31 highest Chinese administrational governors from 1999 to 2007, which includes their promotions, remains and literal transfer and so on. Through collecting and analyzing the information of those governors' personal as well as the provincial economic and social development conditions by logit regression model. It shows that the popular theory by Professor Zhou that supports a connection between cadres' promotion and economic performance has its own limited. This paper therefore has given a more comprehensive analysis on the possible factors that influence the promotion of the highest Chinese provincial governors.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: China

499. Five Surprises of the Great Recession

Author:: Uri Dadush and Vera Eidelman
Publication Date:: 11-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The Great Recession included five major surprises: (1) the severity of the global trade and output collapse, (2) the United States suffered a milder than expected recession, (3) Europe saw the onset of a severe sovereign debt crisis, (4) China grew at an extraordinary rate even though it's greatly dependent on exports, and (5) Latin America showed remarkable resilience.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, Global Recession, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: United States, China, Europe, and Latin America

500. Trade Disputes Between China and the United States: Growing Pains so Far, Worse Ahead?

Author:: Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Jared C. Woollacott
Publication Date:: 12-2010
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: This study covers the history of Sino-US trade relations with a particular focus on the past decade, during which time each has been a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO). Providing a brief history of 19th and 20th century economic relations, this paper examines in detail the trade disputes that have arisen between China and the United States over the past decade, giving dollar estimates for the trade flows at issue. Each country has partaken in their share of protectionist measures, however, US measures have been characteristically defensive, protecting declining industries, while Chinese measures have been characteristically offensive, promoting nascent industries. We also cover administrative and legislation actions within each country that have yet to be the subject of formal complaint at the WTO. This includes an original and comprehensive quantitative summary of US Section 337 intellectual property rights cases. While we view the frictions in Sino-US trade a logical consequence of the rapid increase in flows between the two countries, we caution that each country work within the WTO framework and respect any adverse decisions it delivers so that a protracted protectionist conflict does not emerge. We see the current currency battle as one potential catalyst for such conflict if US and Chinese policymakers fail to manage it judiciously.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States and China

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS