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521. Striking the Right Balance: Economic Concentration and Local Government Performance in Indonesia and the Philippines

Author:
Christian von Luebke
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
The relationship between economic concentration and governance remains controversial. While some studies find that high economic concentration strengthens collective action and reform cooperation, others stress dangers of rent-seeking and state capture. In this paper I argue that effects are neither strictly positive nor negative: they are best described as an inverted-u-shaped relationship, where better governance performance emerges with moderate economic concentration. Decentralization reforms in Indonesia and the Philippines Q unprecedented in scope and scale Q provide a unique opportunity to test this hypothesis. Subnational case studies and cross-sections, from both countries, indicate that moderately concentrated polities are accompanied by better service and lower corruption. The presence of Scontested oligarchiesT Q small circles of multi-sectoral interest groupsQ creates a situation where economic elites are strong enough to influence policymakers and, at the same time, diverse enough to keep each other in check. The results of this paper suggest that contested oligarchies compensate for weakly-developed societal and juridical forces and can become a stepping stone to good governance.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Markets
Political Geography:
Indonesia, Israel, Asia, and Philippines

522. German Companies Engaging in China: Decision-Making Processes at Home and Management Practices in Chinese Subsidiaries

Author:
Geny Piotti
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
This paper attempts to explain why internationalization processes to China are growing despite the significant difficulties that foreign direct investments into China encounter. The answer to this question can be found in the processes of decision-making on internationalization at the company level and how these affect management practices in Chinese subsidiaries. The argument I put forward in this paper is that for the small and medium-sized enterprises the study focuses on, the decisions concerning investment in China are mainly the product of structural and legitimation pressure. Structural pressure can encourage cognitive mechanisms and behavioral consequences similar to those occurring when individuals (and organizations) cope with threat. Legitimation pressure can foster wishful thinking, which pushes actors to believe that desired options are good despite evidence to the contrary. These pressures have an impact on how well companies are prepared when they internationalize and can particularly affect some crucial management practices, leading to inefficiencies and problems in subsidiaries.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, and Germany

523. The Economic Impact of International Students from a Cross-National Perspective

Author:
Robert Gutierrez, Patricia Chow, Jason Baumgartner, and Yuriko Sato
Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institute of International Education (IIE)
Abstract:
IIE Open Doors Data on U.S. International Educational Exchange. Project Atlas: Global Student Mobility. International Student Economic Impact in the U.S. Comparison of International Student Economic Impact in USA, Japan and Australia.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Markets, and Migration
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Asia, California, Australia, and Texas

524. The United States and the Asia-Pacific Region: National Interests and Strategic Imperatives

Author:
James J. Przystup
Publication Date:
04-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
From its earliest days, the United States has been engaged in trade with East Asia. In February 1784, the Empress of China left New York harbor, sailing east to China, arriving at Macau on the China coast in August of that year. The ship returned to the United States the following May with a consignment of Chinese goods, which generated a profit of $30,000. In 1844, China granted the United States trading rights in the Treaty of Wanghia.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States, China, Asia, and Australia/Pacific

525. India-Pakistan Trade: A Roadmap for Enhancing Economic Relations

Author:
Mohsin S. Khan
Publication Date:
07-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Many previous attempts to improve economic ties between India and Pakistan unfortunately have been derailed by periodically heightened political tensions between the two countries—be it Kargil in May 1999, the terrorist attack on the Indian Parliament in December 2001, or most recently, the Mumbai attacks in November 2008. Although successive Indian and Pakistani governments have often repeated the desire for peaceful relations, reaching a comprehensive agree ment that settles outstanding disputes still seems far off. But this does not mean that steps toward better economic relations cannot be taken. Indeed, there was a major breakthrough in trade relations at the meeting between then President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh of India in New Delhi in April 2005 (Joint Communiqué 2005). A number of trade-related issues were discussed at this meeting, and several key decisions were taken to move the process along.
Topic:
Economics, Peace Studies, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, Asia, and New Delhi

526. China's Changing Outbound Foreign Direct Investment Profile: Drivers and Policy Implications

Author:
Daniel H. Rosen and Thilo Hanemann
Publication Date:
06-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
In 1967 Jean-Jacques Servan-Schreiber published Le defi americain, a call to beware of American multinationals buying up the world. In the 1980s and 1990s it was Japan's turn, spawning books like Clyde Prestowitz's 1993 Trading Places: How We Are Giving Our Future to Japan. Today it is China's outbound foreign direct investment (OFDI) that elicits the most anxiety China's OFDI has reached commercially and geoeconomically significant levels and begun to challenge international investment norms and affect international relations.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
China, America, and Asia

527. China's Myanmar Dilemma

Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Each time global attention is focused on events in Myanmar, concerned stakeholders turn to China to influence the military government to undertake reforms. Yet simply calling on Beijing to apply more pressure is unlikely to result in change. While China has substantial political, economic and strategic stakes in Myanmar, its influence is overstated. The insular and nationalistic leaders in the military government do not take orders from anyone, including Beijing. China also diverges from the West in the goals for which it is prepared to use its influence. By continuing to simply expect China to take the lead in solving the problem, a workable international approach will remain elusive as Myanmar continues to play China and the West against each other. After two decades of failed international approaches to Myanmar, Western countries and Beijing must find better ways to work together to pursue a wide array of issues that reflect the concerns of both sides.
Topic:
Security and Economics
Political Geography:
China, Israel, Beijing, Asia, and Myanmar

528. The Political Economy of Heterogeneous Development: Quantile Effects of Income and Education

Author:
Marcus Alexander, Matthew Harding, and Carlos Lamarche
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Does development lead to the establishment of more democratic institutions? The key to the puzzle, we argue, is the previously unrecognized fact that based on quantitative regime scores, countries over the past 50 years have clustered into two separate, very distinct, yet equally-common stages of political development—authoritarian states with low levels of freedom on one side an d democracies with liberal institutions on the other side of a bimodal distribution of political regimes. We develop a new empirical strategy—exploiting exogenous world economic factors and introducing new panel data estimators—that allows for the first time to estimate the effects of development as well as unobserved country effects in driving democracy at these different stages of political development. We find that income and education have the least effect on democracy when authoritarian regimes are consolidated and that only country effects, possibly accounting for institutional legacies, can lead to political development. Ironically, it is in highly democratic and wealthiest of nations that income and education start to play a role; however greater wealth and better educated citizenry can both help and hurt democracy depending again on what the country's institutional legacies are. Far from accepting the notion that much of the developing world is cursed by unchanging and poor long-run institutions, policy-makers should take note that with democratization we also see country-specific factors that in turn condition the difference income and education make for democracy.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Economics, Political Economy, and Third World
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, China, Asia, and Germany

529. Prix Fixe and a' la Carte: Avoiding False Multilateral

Author:
Stewart Patrick
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Washington Quarterly
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Tremendous forces are eroding the institutional foundations of world politics. Economic power is moving to developing countries (particularly in Asia), transnational security threats from nuclear proliferation to climate change are emerging, and influential malevolent as well as benign non-state actors compete with sovereign states for global influence. Despite these tectonic changes, the superstructure of global cooperation has barely moved. The world thus makes do with creaky institutions that reflect a world that no longer exists_with growing risks to global stability and prosperity.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
Asia

530. Mass poverty in Asia and the GFC

Author:
Peter McCawley
Publication Date:
06-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
What is the problem? In addition to the current Global Financial Crisis (GFC), there is a second global crisis: long-term mass poverty in the third world. While the rich world worries about a repeat of the Great Depression, today more than a billion people in Asia live in conditions of bitter poverty which are much worse than those of the 1930s. As a result of the GFC, poverty in developing Asia is now likely to increase.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Poverty, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Asia

531. Russian outward FDI and its policy context

Author:
Andrei Panibratov and Kalman Kalotay
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) from Russia often surprises outside observers by its landmark deals. One of them was the purchase in September 2009 of a 55% stake in General Motors' German affiliate Opel by a consortium of the Canadian car maker Magna and the Russian state-owned bank Sberbank. The latter is the largest creditor of the Russian car maker GAZ, and may represent its commercial interests in the contract. With this deal, Russia has bought into the industrial heartland of the world economy and could potentially access more advanced technology. This acquisition hints at the growth of Russian OFDI in general, which has prospered despite fears in many host countries that the investors are subject to Russian political interference, a fear that recently announced Russian policy intentions may allay.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

532. OEF Commentary on Avian Flu

Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
OEF has regularly provided scenario assessments of the economic impact of a wide range of risks to the global outlook from financial market volatility to banking crises to country studies to threats arising from less economy-based disturbances such as earthquake damage and the impact of health scares like the UK's foot and mouth outbreak and Asia's SARS attack of 2003.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, Health, and Infectious Diseases
Political Geography:
Europe and Asia

533. Assessing the slowdown in China

Publication Date:
04-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Growth in China has slowed dramatically over the past year from a blistering pace of over 13% in 2007 to just 6.1% in 2009 Q1. A turning in the domestic investment cycle has been coupled with a dramatic slowdown in external demand. Despite an unprecedented fiscal package, in the near term we expect growth to dip below 6% but it should begin to recover strongly towards the end of this year as the fiscal stimulus comes on stream, rising to 10% by end-2010. Indeed, some green shoots of recovery are already emerging with a pickup in manufacturing new orders and strong growth in credit. Domestic demand may be recovering but the impact of the external crisis on China’s growth prospects is uncertain. Nevertheless, more fundamental downside risks remain if rising unemployment leads to social instability or if an increase in loss-making investments uncovers weakness in the banking sector. By looking at what has driven the recent slowdown and how this compares with previous downturns, we can shed light on China’s prospects going forward and the major risks.
Topic:
Economics and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
China and Asia

534. Global Outlook 2010: What lies ahead for the global economy

Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
Leo Abruzzese, Editorial Director for North America, discusses the latest EIU forecast for the world. Forward-looking economic indicators have continued to improve in many countries in recent months, suggesting that the worst of the contraction in global GDP is over. The improvement has triggered hopes of an imminent and sustained global economic recovery. But does this signal the start of a genuine strong recovery, or is it a false dawn, to be followed by months—or even years—of anemic growth? What is the outlook for the US, Canada, and Asia, as well as the major emerging markets, over the next couple of years? And what are the downside risks to this outlook?
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States, Canada, Asia, and North America

535. The Impact of the Financial Crisis on Emerging Asia

Author:
Morris Goldstein and Daniel Xie
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper analyzes how the global financial crisis has affected emerging Asia and identifies key characteristics that have made these economies more or less vulnerable to a transmission of crises from the advanced economies. After reviewing how economic outcomes in emerging Asia have evolved since the crisis began in the summer of 2007, we review several studies of the effect of financial stress and/or growth slowdown in advanced economies on emerging Asia. We then discuss how emerging Asia is “different” in ways that matter for the contagion of crises, with the emphasis on currency and maturity mismatches, the nature of the region's foreign trade links (product composition, the geographic pattern of trade, and the degree of net export-led growth), financial market integration with the advanced economies, and the scope for implementing countercyclical monetary and fiscal stimulus.
Topic:
Economics and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Asia

536. Is the world addicted to bubbles? EIU's Quarterly Global Outlook webinar series

Author:
Robert Ward
Publication Date:
12-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
Global: Recoverology Bounce-back theory: "V". The sharper the contraction, the stronger the recovery Financial-impairment theory: "U", "L" Recoveries following financial crises are much slower than normal recoveries Borrowed-time theory: "W" Stimulus boosts economy at the cost of weakness later Armageddon theory: "Q" Too grim to talk about.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Asia

537. The United States in the New Asia

Author:
Robert A. Manning and Evan A. Feigenbaum
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
President Barack Obama heads to Singapore in November for the 2009 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum (APEC) summit. It will be his first foray into the arcane world of Asian multilateralism. And if his administration adopts a new approach, it could yet fashion a more sustainable role for the United States in a changing Asia.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States and Asia

538. Sharing the Pain: The Global Struggle Over Savings

Author:
Michael Pettis
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
In September, the Obama administration imposed tariffs on Chinese tires. In October, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced it would launch an investigation into imports of seamless steel pipes from China. That same month, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the U.S.–China Business Council, two groups that in the past have defended Chinese policies, testified to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative that Chinese contracting rules, technical standards, and licensing requirements were protectionist.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
China, Middle East, and Asia

539. How the Asia Pacific Can Drive the Global Recovery

Author:
Peter A. Petri
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
The transition to a new, sustained global growth path is still precarious and will require concerted policy actions by many countries. Leadership by the G-20 will be essential for coordinating the global effort. But due to the central importance of the Asia Pacific in the world economy, regional institutions such as ASEAN+3, ASEAN+6, and APEC could also play large roles in the next phase of the recovery.
Topic:
Economics and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Israel and Asia

540. Crossing Borders, Changing Landscapes: Land-Use Dynamics in the Golden Triangle

Author:
Jefferson Fox
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Over the last half-century, public policy has affected land-use practices across the borders linking China, Thailand, and Laos. Political and economic reforms have facilitated labor mobility and a shift in agricultural practices away from staple grains and toward a diverse array of cash crops, rubber being one of the foremost. China has promoted the conversion of forests to rubber agroforestry in southern Yunnan—profitable for farmers, but a concern in terms of biodiversity and long-term viability. In Thailand, the response is at the other end of the spectrum as the government's concerns about land-use practices and watershed management have led to policies that dramatically constrain land-use practices and limit tenure rights. In Laos the future is not yet clear. Government policies provide weak support for both private land ownership and protected areas. In a global environment where national policy has such a dramatic effect on land use and land cover, the factors behind land-use change merit close examination.
Topic:
Agriculture and Economics
Political Geography:
China, Asia, Thailand, Southeast Asia, and Laos