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552. China-Southeast Asia Relations
- Author:
- Robert Sutter
- Publication Date:
- 01-2009
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Comparative Connections
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Asian commentators who asserted that China and its neighbors could ride out the economic crisis in U.S. and Western financial markets appeared in retreat during the quarter as the impact of the financial turmoil and recession in America and Europe began to have a major effect on China and the region's trade, manufacturing, currency values, and broader economic stability. The hope that China could sustain stable growth independent of the U.S. and Europe and thereby provide an engine of growth for export-oriented Southeast Asian countries was dented by Chinese trade figures that nosedived in November, especially Chinese imports, which fell by 18 percent. The financial crisis also dominated the discussion at the ASEM summit in October. Meanwhile, China continued to pursue infrastructure development projects with its neighbors to the south, resolved the land boundary dispute with Vietnam, and signed a free trade agreement with Singapore. Talk of a planned Chinese aircraft carrier caused some controversy, but on the whole assessments of China's rise were notably more balanced than in the past.
- Topic:
- Economics, Financial Crisis, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, America, Europe, Asia, and Southeast Asia
553. Global Financial Crisis and Policy Responses in Southeast Asia : Towards Prudent Macroeconomic Policies
- Author:
- Friska Parulian
- Publication Date:
- 07-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- The global financial crisis hit the Southeast Asian economies through financial and real sectors by the combination of lower global demand and tighter credit demand effect. The challenge for policymakers in this region is not just to prevent the escalation of the crisis and to mitigate the downturn, but also to ensure a good starting position once the rebound sets in. Policymakers should avoid taking on an excessive level of debt or creating the conditions for an inflationary bubble by the current reaction to the global slowdown. A prudent counter-cyclical policy is necessary, and we should not ignore the medium and long-term sustainability.
- Topic:
- Economics, Global Financial Crisis, Macroeconomics, and Sustainability
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Southeast Asia
554. Trade Facilitation in the ASEAN Economic Community
- Author:
- Christopher Findlay
- Publication Date:
- 11-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- Trade facilitation refers to the reduction of costs in the trading system. Significant cost reductions are possible, but policy reform and international cooperation are required to capture those gains. ASEAN has a key role to play in that work. Suggestions for the ASEAN scorecard are to reinforce or add commitments to, and then monitor the implementation of (a) National Single Windows as a prerequisite to the ASEAN Single Window, (b) a web-based databank of trade regulations that is regularly updated, (c) streamlined and harmonized procedures, starting with the Customs declaration (or 'SAD') form, and (d) mutually recognized technical standards. In terms of performance measures it is recommended to (1) have ASEAN customs authorities report regularly and in a comparable manner on clearance time through customs, (2) maintain and report updates of a logistics restrictiveness index for all countries in each year which has been developed in this project, and (3) recalculate adjusted cif/fob ratios as measures of trade costs, using the methodology developed in this project.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, World Trade Organization, World Bank, and Tariffs
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Southeast Asia
555. Are Chinese Exports Sensitive to Changes in the Exchange Rate?
- Author:
- Shaghil Ahmed
- Publication Date:
- 12-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- This paper builds a model of two types of Chinese exports, those processed and assembled laregely from imported inputs ("processed" exports) and "non- processed" exports. Based on this model, the sensitivity of Chinese exports to exchange rate changes is empirically examined. Unlike previous work, the estimation period includes the net real appreciation of the renminbi that has occurredoverthepastthreeyears. Theresultsshowthatgreaterexchangerate appreciation dampens export growth, both for non-processed and processed ex- ports, with the estimated cumulative price elasticity being substantially greater thanunity. WhenthesourceoftheincreaseintheChineserealexchangerateis appreciations against the currencies of other emerging Asian trading partners, the e§ect on processing exports is positive but insignÖcant, while the e§ect on non-processing exports is signiÖcantly negative. By contrast, when the source of the increase in the Chinese real exchange rate is appreciation against Chinaís advanced-economy trading partners, the e§ects on both types of exports are negative. These results are consistent with the predictions of the theoretical model. Counterfactualsimulationsbasedontheestimatedmodelstronglysug- gest that if the trade-weighted real renminbi had appreciated at an annual rate of 10 percent per quarter since mid-2005, Chinese real exports would have been roughly 30 percent lower today. Thus greater exchange rate áexibility could contribute to lowering Chinaís huge trade surplus through restraining growth of exports.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Exchange Rate Policy, and Exports
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
556. China can grow and still help prevent the tragedy of the carbon dioxide commons
- Author:
- Warwick McKibbin, Peter J. Wilcoxen, and Wing Thye Woo
- Publication Date:
- 07-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- Under reasonable assumptions, China could achieve parity in living standard with Western Europe by 2100, and India by 2150. Climate change, however, may be a key obstacle preventing such a convergence. The business-as-usual (BAU) growth path of the world might increase concentration of atmospheric to unsafe levels and cause significant negative environmental feedback before China achieves parity in living standards with the OECD countries. We use a dynamic multi-country general equilibrium model (the G-Cubed Model) to project a realistic BAU trajectory of CO2 emissions, and we find it to be even above the CO2 emissions from the high-growth scenario estimated by the Energy Information Agency in 2007. This outcome is a reminder that it has been usual so far to underestimate the growth in China energy consumption.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Economics, Environment, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
557. The sustainability of Russia's resurgence
- Author:
- Mikko Patokallio
- Publication Date:
- 09-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- In recent years, Russia's resurgence has been driven by favourable conditions rather than solid foundations. Despite the favourable conditions, Russia's resurgence has only achieved mixed results. Buoyed by economic growth, Russia has become wealthy, assertive and confident; but the country has also alienated and provoked its neighbours and the West. Sustaining these conditions is unlikely due to problems resulting from Russia's internal structural weaknesses and assertive foreign policy. Without change, these problems are likely to worsen. Energy exports – the cornerstone of Russia's resurgence – are set to decline. The end of this boom threatens Russia's domestic stability and ability to tackle other long-term threats as external resistance to Russia hardens.
- Topic:
- Economics and Energy Policy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Asia
558. Central banks and capital flows
- Author:
- Stephen Grenville
- Publication Date:
- 02-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- Sudden capital outflows were at the heart of the 1997-8 Asian Crisis. Ten years later, capital flows are back on the policy agenda, but in a very different context. The countries of East Asia are now getting more inflows than they can effectively absorb and the upward pressure on exchange rates is unwelcome.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- Israel and Asia
559. Decision Factors Affecting Semiconductor Industry Location and the Regional Advantages of Kumamoto Prefecture, Japan
- Author:
- Kyoko Ii
- Publication Date:
- 01-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- The objective of this research is to pinpoint the key determining factors that managers in multinational semiconductor firms use to decide upon a location to expand their business. Interviews were conducted with seventeen executives at eight companies, at both the U.S. and Japanese headquarters. Based on these interviews, the author analyzed the data to determine the strengths and weaknesses of Japan's Kumamoto Prefecture, in particular, as a semiconductor investment location. One important research finding is an assessment of these strengths and weaknesses, their importance to foreign executives, and how Kumamoto can capitalize on them in order to attract more business to the region.
- Topic:
- Economics, Industrial Policy, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, Iran, and Asia
560. Friedman and Russia
- Author:
- Andrei Illarionov
- Publication Date:
- 01-2008
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Cato Journal
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- One day I asked Milton Friedman a question. That question was in my mind every time we met: “Could he have achieved the same status he did in America if he had lived in Russia—not only in terms of his research, but in shaping his outlook on life and in his under-standing of freedom?” Having kept silent for a moment, he answered: “no.”
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, America, Europe, and Asia
561. An Indian Economic Miracle?
- Author:
- Deepak Lal
- Publication Date:
- 01-2008
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Cato Journal
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- In explaining the acceleration in Indian growth, and to judge if an Indian economic miracle is on its way, it is first necessary to establish when this acceleration began, as this is still subject to controversy. Second it is necessary to identify the sources of this acceleration and to see to what extent these are the results of policy. Third, to provide some reading of the tea leaves until 2030, it is necessary to outline the current constraints on growth. But before that, the current change in Indian economic fortunes needs to be put into historical perspective. This is done in the first part of this article, followed by the next three parts, which deal with the other three broad themes outlined above. As this article is in honor of Angus Maddison, I rely wherever possible on the growth accounting method that he has made so much his own.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- India and Asia
562. Approaching a Triumphal Span: How Far Is China Towards its Lewisian Turning Point?
- Author:
- Fang Cai
- Publication Date:
- 02-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- With the aid of an analytical framework of the Lewis model revised to reflect the experience of China, this paper examines the country's dualistic economic development and its unique characteristics. The paper outlines the major effects of China's growth as achieved during the course of economic reform and the opening-up of the country: the exploitation of the demographic dividend, the realization of comparative advantage, the improvement of total factor productivity, and participation in economic globalization. By predicting the long-term relationship between the labour force demand and supply, the paper reviews the approaching turning point in China's economic development and examines a host of challenges facing the country in sustaining growth.
- Topic:
- Development and Economics
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
563. China in the World Economy: Dynamic Correlation Analysis of Business Cycles
- Author:
- Jarko Fidrmuc and Ivana Bátorová
- Publication Date:
- 01-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- We analyse the business cycles in China and in selected OECD countries between 1992 and 2006. We show that, although negative correlation dominate s for nearly all countries, we can also see large differences for various frequencies of cyclical developments. On the one hand, nearly all OE CD countries show positive correlations of the very short-run developments that may correspond to intensive supplier linkages. On the other hand, business cycle frequencies (cycles with periods between 1.5 and 8 years) are typically negative. Nevertheless, countries facing a comparably longer history of intensive trading links tend to show also slightly higher correlations of business cycles with China.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
564. China's Economic Growth: Trajectories and Evolving Institutions
- Author:
- Jun Zhang
- Publication Date:
- 04-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper investigates the institutional reason underlying the change in the trajectory of economic growth in post-reform China, and argues that the trajectory of growth was much more normal during the period of 1978-89 than in the post-1989 era. In the former period, growth was largely induced by equality-generating institutional change in agriculture and the emergence of non-state industrial sector. In the latter period, growth was triggered by the acceleration of capital investments under authoritarian decentralized hierarchy within self-contained regions. Such a growth trajectory accelerates capital deepening, deteriorating total factor productivity and leads to rising regional imbalance. This paper further argues that the change in the trajectory of growth is the outcome of changes in political and inter-governmental fiscal institutions following the 1989 political crisis.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, Industrial Policy, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
565. Re-Orienting the Fundamentals: Human Rights and New Connections in EU-Asia Relations
- Author:
- Atsuko Abe
- Publication Date:
- 01-2008
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Relations of the Asia-Pacific
- Institution:
- Japan Association of International Relations
- Abstract:
- Economic matters such as trade and investment have dominated the studies of EU–Asia relations partly because it was only after 1987 Single European Act and 1993 Treaty of European Union that the EU's competencies were extended beyond economic issues. Even the last decade and a half did not see much change in trend that both parties perceive each other as an economic partner/competitor. Consequentially, few studies have paid attention to non-economic interests in the diplomacy between EU and Asia. This tendency ignores much wider range of agendas between the two regions, such as human rights. This book focuses on EU foreign policy towards Asia, highlighting 'the role and development of human rights matters within the EU's dialogue with Asian partners', which has a low profile in the studies of EU–Asia relations.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Asia
566. Colonial Land Tenure, Electoral Competition and Public Goods in India
- Author:
- Abhijit Banerjee and Lakshmi Iyer
- Publication Date:
- 02-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Social scientists have long emphasized the importance of institutions in nurturing economic growth and development. Douglass C. North defines institutions as the “rules of the game in a society” which limit the set of choices for individuals and argues that institutions, both formal ones such as laws and constitutions, as well as informal ones such as social norms, are important in determining the transaction costs of production and exchange, and thereby have an impact on economic growth. He goes on to discuss the mostly incremental nature of institutional change and highlights the difficulties in implementing radical institutional change. This line of argument therefore suggests that the impacts of institutions are likely to be felt for a very long time, and hence points to the need for detailed historical analysis over long periods in order to quantify the impact of institutions.
- Topic:
- Economics, Political Theory, and Social Stratification
- Political Geography:
- India and Asia
567. Unemployment and Unemployment Protection in Transition
- Author:
- Wayne Vroman and Vera Brusentsev
- Publication Date:
- 04-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Urban Institute
- Abstract:
- Nearly twenty years have passed since the transition from a centrally-planned towards a market-oriented economy in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union (CEE-FSU). This paper documents the differing patterns of unemployment during the period 1990 to 2006 in the 28 countries that constitute the CEE-FS U group and outlines how unemployment protection programs developed in response. We also suggest some tentative explanations for the observed trends in unemployment and unemployment compensation. Our approach is novel in that we compare the performance of the CEE-FSU group to the worldwide average and to other major economies. In addition, we demonstrate important contrasts across the CEE-FSU sub-regions.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia, and Soviet Union
568. Keeping an Eye on an Unruly Neighbor: Chinese Views of Economic Reform and Stability in North Korea
- Author:
- Scott Snyder, Bonnie Glaser, and John S. Park
- Publication Date:
- 01-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- This report is based on discussions with Chinese specialists on the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) during a visit to Beijing, Changchun, and Yanji, June 25-30, 2007.1 Discussions followed on a similar round of interviews conducted in April 2006. Several of our interlocutors recently returned from extended stays in Pyongyang and many others regularly visit the DPRK, commonly referred to as North Korea. Topics discussed included trends in North Korea's economy and prospects for reform; current trends in Sino-DPRK economic relations; China's policy toward North Korea in the wake of the nuclear test; Chinese debates on North Korea; Chinese assessments of North Korea's political stability; and potential Chinese responses to instability.
- Topic:
- Economics, Nuclear Weapons, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- China, Beijing, Asia, North Korea, and Changchun
569. PolicyWatch #1425: Interfaith, Oil, and Afghanistan: Where Saudi and U.S. Interests Diverge
- Author:
- Simon Henderson
- Publication Date:
- 11-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Saudi king Abdullah is in the United States this week to discuss issues of considerable interest to both countries. Tomorrow and Thursday, he is in New York City for an interfaith meeting he is sponsoring and which President Bush will be attending. On Friday and Saturday, the Saudi monarch will be at the White House, where he will be the sole Islamic or Arab representative at a summit of major economic powers discussing the world financial crisis. In a separate meeting with President Bush, he is expected to report on Saudi mediation efforts with the Taliban in Afghanistan. Despite some common interest in all these areas, perspectives differ significantly on issues such as radical Islam and the price of oil. The United States, particularly during a time of presidential transition, should be careful not to concede ground on continuing points of disagreement.
- Topic:
- Economics and Oil
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, Middle East, Asia, and Saudi Arabia
570. 'Cast the Net Wider': How a Vision of Global Halal Markets is Overcoming Network Envy
- Author:
- Johan Fischer
- Publication Date:
- 11-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- This paper explores Malaysia's bid to become the world leader in rapidly expanding halal (lawful or permitted) markets on a global scale. Over the last three decades, a powerful state nationalism has emerged, represented by the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), the dominant political party in Malaysia. The state has effectively certified standardised and bureaucratised Malaysian halal production, trade and consumption. Now, the vision is to export this model, and for that purpose the network as a strategic metaphor is being evoked to signify connectedness and prescriptions of organisation vis-à-vis more deep-rooted networks. Building on empirical material from research in Malaysia and Britain, I shall show how networks are understood and practised in a metaphorical sense.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Nationalism
- Political Geography:
- Britain, Malaysia, and Asia
571. Export Productivity and Specialization in China, Brazil, India and South Africa
- Author:
- Amelia U. Santos-Paulino
- Publication Date:
- 03-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper analyses the patterns of export productivity and trade specialization profiles in the China, Brazil, India and South Africa, and in other regional groupings. In doing so, the investigation calculates a time varying export productivity measure using highly disaggregated product categories. The findings indicate that export productivity is mainly determined by real income and human capital endowments. Importantly, the study reveals significant differences in the export productivity and specialization patterns of countries with comparable per capita income levels. For instance, China's export productivity and implied export sophistication is in line with that of countries with higher per capita incomes, including some OECD industrial economies.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Africa, China, India, Asia, South Africa, Brazil, and South America
572. Gender and Informal Sector Analysis in India: Economy Wide Approaches
- Author:
- Anushree Sinha and Haider Khan
- Publication Date:
- 06-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The main purpose of this paper is to look at the incorporation of gender and the informal sector within a general equilibrium framework for India. Moreover, we clarify some important links between a gender aware informal sector based social accounting matrix (SAM) and general equilibrium models such as the computable general equilibrium (CGE) models including as a special case the fixed price multiplier (FPM) models. In particular, economy wide modelling of gender and the informal sector is facilitated by the use of national level data and constructing the base data set as an SAM. Another important strategy is to conceptualize the economy within gender structures, entailing the recognition of gender relations as an intervening variable in all economic activities.
- Topic:
- Economics and Gender Issues
- Political Geography:
- India and Asia
573. Global Growth and Distribution: Are China and India Reshaping the World?
- Author:
- Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, Maurizio Bussolo, Rafael E. De Hoyos, and Denis Medvedev
- Publication Date:
- 03-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Over the past 20 years, aggregate measures of global inequality have changed little even if significant structural changes have been observed. High growth rates of China and India lifted millions out of poverty, while the stagnation in many African countries caused them to fall behind. Using the World Bank's LINKAGE global general equilibrium model and the newly developed Global Income Distribution Dynamics (GIDD) tool, this paper assesses the distribution and poverty effects of a scenario where these trends continue in the future. Even by anticipating a deceleration, growth in China and India is a key force behind the expected convergence of per capita incomes at the global level. Millions of Chinese and Indian consumers will enter into a rapidly emerging global middle class—a group of people who can afford, and demand access to, the standards of living previously reserved mainly for the residents of developed countries. Notwithstanding these positive developments, fast growth is often characterized by high urbanization and growing demand for skills, both of which result in a widening of income distribution within countries. These opposing distributional effects highlight the importance of analysing global disparities by taking into account—as the GIDD does—income dynamics between and within countries.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- Africa, China, India, and Asia
574. Growth Oriented Macroeconomic Policies for Small Islands Economies: Lessons from Singapore
- Author:
- Anis Chowdhury
- Publication Date:
- 04-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Most small island economies or 'microstates' have distinctly different characteristics from larger developing economies. They are more open and vulnerable to external and environmental shocks, resulting in high output volatility. Most of them also suffer from locational disadvantages. Although a few small island economies have succeeded in generating sustained rapid growth and reducing poverty, most have dismal growth performance, resulting in high unemployment and poverty. Although macroeconomic policies play an important role in growth and poverty reduction, there has been very little work on the issue for small island economies or microstates. Most work follows the conventional framework and finds no or very little effectiveness of macroeconomic policies in stabilization. They also concentrate on short-run macroeconomic management with a focus almost entirely on either price stability or external balance. The presumption is that price stability and external balance are prerequisite for sustained rapid growth. This paper aims to provide a critical survey of the extant literature on macroeconomic policies for small island economies in light of the available evidence on their growth performance. Given the high output volatility and its impact on poverty, this paper will argue for a balance between price and output stabilization goals of macroeconomic policy mix. Drawing on the highly successful experience of Singapore, it will also outline a framework for growth promoting, pro-poor macroeconomic policies for small island economies/microstates.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Asia, Australia/Pacific, Caribbean, and Singapore
575. Identification of Regional Fundamental Economic Structure (FES) of India: An Input-Output and Field of Influence Approach
- Author:
- Sudhir K. Thakur
- Publication Date:
- 05-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This study provides an understanding of the Indian regional economy utilizing the fundamental economic structure (FES) approach. The FES construct implies that selected characteristics of an economy will vary predictably with region size, as measured by net state domestic product, population, and total gross output. The big question addressed in this study is if identifiable patterns of relations between various macro aggregates and economic transactions can be revealed via regional input-output tables. Jensen et al. (1988) discuss the tiered, partitioned, and temporal approaches to the identification of FES using input-output tables. This research addresses the following four questions: (1) Does a regional FES exist for the Indian economy during the period 1965? (2) What proportions of the cells are predictable? (3) Can the 1965 regional FES predict 1983-84 table for Punjab economy? (4) Does regional FES manifest an enhanced understanding of the Indian regional structure? Regression analyses are used to identify the FES and non-FES cells for the Indian regional economy. The regional input-output tables for 21 States and Union Territories provide data for the analysis. Analysis reveals regional FES includes primary and secondary sectors as components of FES. This research has extended the notion of FES to include: weak, moderate and strong FES cells.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- India, Asia, and Punjab
576. The Impact of Reform on Economic Growth in China: A Principal Component Analysis
- Author:
- Ligang Song and Yu Sheng
- Publication Date:
- 02-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The study decomposes the sources of Chinese growth by first making a distinction between technological progress and technical efficiency in the growth accounting framework, and then identifying a series of reform programmes, such as urbanization, structural change, privatization, liberalization, banking and fiscal system reforms as the key components in institutional innovation which facilitate the improvement of technical efficiency and through which economic growth. These components are then incorporated into the model specification, which is estimated based on a panel dataset by applying the principal component analysis (PCA) to eliminate the multicollinearity problem. The results show that urbanization, liberalization and structural change in the form of industrialization are the most important components in contributing to the improvement of technical efficiency and hence growth, highlighting the importance of government policies aimed at enhancing further urbanization, openness to trade and industrial structural adjustments to sustain the growth momentum in China. The study also found that the potential for further enhancing growth through technical efficiency in China is considerable, which can be realized by deepening state-owned enterprises (SOEs) restructuring, and banking and fiscal system reform.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
577. Measuring Vulnerability and Poverty: Estimates for Rural India
- Author:
- Raghav Gaiha and Katsushi Imai
- Publication Date:
- 04-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper measures the vulnerability of households in rural India, based upon the ICRISAT panel survey. We employ both ex ante and ex post measures of vulnerability. The latter are decomposed into aggregate and idiosyncratic risks and poverty components. Our decomposition shows that idiosyncratic risks account for the largest share, followed by poverty and aggregate risks. Despite some degree of risk-sharing, the landless or small farmers are vulnerable to idiosyncratic risks, forcing them to reduce consumption. Income-augmenting policies therefore must be combined with those that not only reduce aggregate and idiosyncratic risks but also build resilience against them.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Development, Economics, and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- India and Asia
578. Ownership Reform, Foreign Competition, and Efficiency of Chinese Commercial Banks: A Non-Parametric Approach
- Author:
- Shujie Yao, Zhongwei Han, and Genfu Feng
- Publication Date:
- 04-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Since China joined the WTO in 2001, the pressure for bank reforms has mounted as China ought to fully open up its financial market to foreign competition by 2006. Efficiency is key for domestic banks to survive in a liberalised environment, but it appears that the last hope for raising bank efficiency is through ownership reform. Whether ownership reform and foreign competition can solve China's banking problem remains to be tested. This paper aims to answer this question through using a non-parametric approach to analyse the efficiency changes of 15 large commercial banks during 1998-2005. We find that ownership reform and foreign competition have forced the Chinese commercial banks to improve performance, as their total factor productivity rose by 5.6 per cent per annum. This coincides with the recent bullish Chinese stock markets led by three listed state-owned commercial banks. Despite such encouraging results, we remain cautious about the future of the Chinese banks, as the good results may have been artificially created with massive government support and the fundamentals of the banks may be still weak.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
579. Vulnerability, Trust and Microcredit: The Case of China's Rural Poor
- Author:
- Calum G. Turvey and Rong Kong
- Publication Date:
- 05-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper investigates the economic conditions of rural households in China. Historical survey data indicate that over 80 per cent of rural households earn less than 4,500 yuan in net disposable income each year, that for the vast majority of rural households disposable income is insufficient to meet food consumption needs, and that in terms of economic growth rural households are receiving an ever decreasing percentage of China's growing economy with rural household incomes being only 31 per cent of urban household income in 2004.
- Topic:
- Economics and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
580. Financial Repression in China
- Author:
- Nicholas R. Lardy
- Publication Date:
- 09-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- China\'s banking sector has been largely transformed over the past decade. Several of the largest banks have been restructured, recapitalized, and listed. Governance has improved, notably through the appointment of independent members to boards of directors. A vigorous new regulatory and supervisory agency, the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC), has introduced new accounting standards, a revised risk weighting system for measuring capital, more rigorous loan loss criteria, heightened provisioning requirements, and other significant changes. Foreign banks have entered the market, both through their own branches and subsidiaries and through strategic investments in domestic banks, bringing better banking practices and much needed additional competition.
- Topic:
- Economics and Government
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
581. The Political Economy of Successful Reform: Asian Stratagems
- Author:
- Dennis Arroyo
- Publication Date:
- 06-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- Major economic reforms are often politically difficult, causing pain to voters and provoking unrest. They may be opposed by politicians with short time horizons. They may collide with the established ideology and an entrenched ruling party. They may be resisted by bureaucrats and by vested interests. Obstacles to major economic reform can be daunting in democratic and autocratic polities alike.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China, India, Asia, South Korea, Vietnam, Singapore, and Thailand
582. China's Economic Rise -- Fact and Fiction
- Author:
- Albert Keidel
- Publication Date:
- 07-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- China's economy will surpass that of the United States by 2035 and be twice its size by midcentury, a new report by Albert Keidel concludes. China's rapid growth is driven by domestic demand—not exports—and will sustain high single-digit growth rates well into this century. In China's Economic Rise—Fact and Fiction, Keidel examines China's likely economic trajectory and its implications for global commercial, institutional, and military leadership.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Asia
583. Water and Gender: The Unexpected Connection That Really Matters
- Author:
- Vivienne Bennett, Sonia Davila-Poblete, and Maria Nieves Rico
- Publication Date:
- 10-2008
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of International Affairs
- Institution:
- School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
- Abstract:
- Since the mid-1990s, worldwide focus on water scarcity has exploded. Attention has moved beyond the technical dimensions of water provision to the political and social contexts in which water management occurs. In many places, especially where water is scarce, control over water confers power. The political analysis of water is then an analysis of power relations. As social scientists have entered the water world, and more and more case studies are carried out in Latin America, Africa and Asia, another facet of the politics of water that has been brought to light is gender differentiation in water usage and water management. In our 2005 book, Opposing Currents: The Politics of Water and Gender in Latin America, we provided a framework for understanding the connection between water and gender and a review of the development of global water policy and gender policy since the early 1990s, using case studies from six Latin American countries to highlight the role of women in water management. We found that substantial change is still needed to overcome pernicious gender bias and imbalances that distort water management and lead to ineffective planning in the water sector.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Asia, and Latin America
584. Higher Education Reservations and India's Economic Growth: An Examination
- Author:
- Gurpreet Mahajan
- Publication Date:
- 09-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- In 2006 the Indian Parliament passed legislation reserving an additional 27 percent of seats in all institutions of higher learning, funded by the central government, for the category of socially disadvantaged groups officially known as "Other Backward Classes." At a time when India is opening its economy to global competition, this initiative has re-ignited the debate on the efficacy of reservations and triggered fresh anxieties about the impact of this policy on India's economic growth.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Economics, Education, and Globalization
- Political Geography:
- India and Asia
585. China's Economic Fluctuations: Implications for its Rural Economy
- Author:
- Albert Keidel
- Publication Date:
- 01-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Since market reforms began in 1978, China's economy has shown cyclical fluctuations. These cycles of change appear in obvious statistical patterns-faster growth and then slower growth, higher price inflation and then lower inflation, stronger investment flows and then weaker investment-and all are accompanied by other cyclical fluctuations in a range of variables and policy initiatives. Most of these fluctuations tend to move together. Their beauty is that they allow analysis of which fluctuations influence others and, by extension, which policies might make a difference in managing China's economy. In this regard, the cyclical interaction between China's formal urban economy and its rural economy is particularly relevant for the issues facing Chinese policy makers today.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
586. Perspectives on Peace and Security in Korea and Northeast Asia
- Author:
- Patrick Degategno and Joseph Snyder
- Publication Date:
- 03-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The Atlantic Council of the United States published a report entitled A Framework for Peace and Security in Korea and Northeast Asia in April 2007. The report was the culmination of deliberations of a working group of distinguis hed American scholars and practitioners with a wide range of experience on Korea and Northeast Asia and chaired by Ambassador James Goodby and General Jack Merritt. It laid out a program for resolving the North Korean nuclear issue as part of a comprehensive s ettlement of a range of fundamental security, political and economic issues on the Korean peni nsula. The working group first met in June 2006, shortly before the North Koreans test fire d a series of missiles and about three months prior to the time Pyongyang exploded its firs t, and so far only, nuclear weapon on October 9. At the time the project began, the Six-P arty talks were suspended and prospects for a peaceful solution to the North Korean nuclear issue looked dim.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, Nuclear Weapons, and Authoritarianism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Asia, North Korea, and Korea
587. Regional Overview
- Author:
- Ralph A. Cossa and Brad Glosserman
- Publication Date:
- 10-2008
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Comparative Connections
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Hopes of progress in Six-Party Talks negotiations evident in the closing days of the previous quarter were quickly dashed as anticipated disagreements over verification of North Korea's nuclear declaration created a stalemate still in evidence at quarter's end. The only movement was backward, as “action for action” was replaced by inaction and worse. Last year, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice made news by not showing up at the annual ASEAN Regional Forum ministerial. This year she went and hardly anyone noticed. The democratic process made for interesting watching this quarter, not only in Thailand and Malaysia, but in East Asia's most established democracy, as Japan saw its third leader in the 24 months since Prime Minister Koizumi departed the scene. The once presumably left for dead U.S.-India nuclear deal was reincarnated by the Indian Parliament this quarter with the U.S. Congress following suit at quarter's end and President Bush's signature in early October. Finally, the U.S. sneezed this quarter and the rest of the world did catch cold, even as Wall Street struggles with a serious bout of pneumonia. Economic policy also dominated the “foreign policy debate” between Senators Obama and McCain, with no questions and only sparse references to Asia throughout.
- Topic:
- Economics
- Political Geography:
- India, East Asia, Asia, and North Korea
588. A Comprehensive Survey of China's Dynamic Shipbuilding Industry
- Author:
- Gabriel Collins and Michael Grubb
- Publication Date:
- 08-2008
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
- Abstract:
- China's dynamic shipbuilding sector now has the attention of key decision makers in Washington. During testimony before the Armed Services Committee of the House of Representatives on 13 December 2007, Chief of Naval Operations (CNO) Admiral Gary Roughead observed, "The fact that our shipbuilding capacity and industry is not as competitive as other builders around the world is cause for concern." Pointing directly to Beijing's new prowess in this area, he concluded, "[China is] very competitive on the world market. There is no question that their shipbuilding capability is increasing rapidly." The present study aims to present a truly comprehensive survey of this key sector of the growing Chinese economy. In doing so, it will provide decision makers and analysts with the clearest possible picture of the extraordinary pace of activity now under way in China's ports, as well as the commercial and strategic implications flowing from this development.
- Topic:
- Economics, Navy, and Shipbuilding
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
589. Emerging Market Business Cycles with Remittance Fluctuations
- Author:
- Ceyhun Bora Durdu and Serdar Sayan
- Publication Date:
- 09-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- This paper analyzes the implications of remittance fluctuations for various macroeconomic variables and Sudden Stops. The paper employs a quantitative two-sector model of a small open economy with financial frictions calibrated to Mexican and Turkish economies, two major recipients, whose remittance receipts feature opposite cyclical characteristics. We find that remittances dampen the business cycles in Mexico, whereas they amplify the cycles in Turkey. Their quantitative effects in the long run, approximated by the stochastic steady state are mild. In the short run, however, remittances have quantitatively large impacts on the economy, when the economy is borrowing constrained. This is because agents in the economy cannot adjust their precautionary wealth to sudden tightening in credit, hence, fluctuations in remittances get magnified through an endogenous debt-deflation mechanism. Our findings suggest that procyclical (or countercyclical) remittances can play a significant deepening (or mitigating) role for Sudden Stops.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, and Credit
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Asia, North America, and Mexico
590. Regional Monetary Arrangements in ASEAN+3 as Insurance through Reserve Accumulation and Swaps
- Author:
- O.G. Dayaratna-Banda and John Whalley
- Publication Date:
- 04-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- East Asia is witnessing the emergence of an informal monetary system which focuses on self-insurance through own reserve accumulation and co-insurance through swaps. The former is concentrated in a small number of large countries (China, Japan, and Korea), while the latter involves informal monetary cooperation among monetary authorities in a large number of countries. The origins of this system lie in the Asian financial crises, and reflect concerns both to avoid repetition of similar events and any spread of further crises through contagion effects. This paper first characterizes and documents this emerging system describing how it works and what its objectives are, and then discusses its performance, its incompleteness, and assesses the system's ability to move towards deeper integration without adopting a single monetary authority as well as the impediments it faces. What is clear is that this type of system among individual countries is incomplete and falls well short of complete monetary integration, but at present it performs well even if it experiences a number of deficiencies. Most countries seem better off with partial reserve pooling, while incremental gains from higher degrees of pooling in the region tend to be small.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Asia, and Korea
591. After the MFA, the CCAs (China Containment Agreements)
- Author:
- O.G. Dayaratna-Banda and John Whalley
- Publication Date:
- 05-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- The post-Multi Fiber Agreement (MFA) trade regime in textile and apparel appears to be emerging in ways which are quite different from what had been widely anticipated before the termination of Agreement on Textiles and Clothing (ATC). Since the end of ATC, there has been growing and spreading set of trade restrictions targeted primarily at China, the largest shipper of textile and apparel, through a series of agreements that we term China Containment Agreements. We discuss the evolution of these agreements, their behavioural responses, and then draw their parallels to those under the older MFA. We argue that there is potential for these restrictions to prolong and grow, as well as spread to other products through the product-specific safeguards mechanism included in the conditions of China's World Trade Organization accession.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
592. Sustainability of Economic Growth in India
- Author:
- Rajiv Kumar, Amitendu Palit, and Karan Singh
- Publication Date:
- 05-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- The robust performance of the Indian economy in recent years, with economic growth averaging 8.5%, has generated intense debate regarding India's future economic prospects. Indeed, the future of more than a billion people, many of whom still exist in degrading and unacceptable poverty and deprivation, depends critically on India's ability to grow fast at high rates. This paper, while examining the issue, argues that India's recent economic performance is a result of it's entering a virtuous circle of growth generated by some key structural drivers. The latter include a dynamic private sector, benign external environment and a wellfunctioning democracy. The paper also points out that high growth can be sustained only if necessary policies are adopted for removing binding constraints like poor infrastructure, stagnant agriculture and lack of fiscal space. The paper identifies education as the most critical sector requiring reforms, followed by public goods delivery and labour markets.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- India and Asia
593. India Country Risk Report
- Publication Date:
- 12-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- The Indian National Congress party, which heads the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government, is doing relatively well in the opinion polls and may be tempted to call an early general election within the next six months (the poll must take place by May 2009). However, the outcome of the election is likely to be another coalition government. Major reform-oriented policy changes are unlikely to be pushed through in the run-up to the election, particularly given the rift between the UPA and its leftist political allies. Monetary policy will be put on hold in 2008 while inflationary pressures abate. Real GDP growth is forecast to moderate slightly, to 7.9% in fiscal year 2008/09 (April-March) and 7.2% in 2009/10. Strong domestic demand will lead to a widening of the merchandise trade deficit over the forecast period, but surpluses on the services and transfers accounts will limit the current-account deficit to an annual average of 1.5% of GDP in 2008-09.
- Topic:
- Economics, Political Economy, and Privatization
- Political Geography:
- India and Asia
594. Narrativas del cambio: Cultura y desarrollo económico regional.
- Author:
- David Goodman
- Publication Date:
- 04-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- CONfines de Relaciones Internacionales y Ciencia Política
- Abstract:
- China's economic growth since the late 1970s challenges economic theory so strongly that cultural explanations are often sought. A prime difficulty in such approaches is the operationalisation of the concept of Chinese culture. Culture is more readily and usefully analysed at the local rather than the national level. Local culture has been demonstrated to be important to politics and the emergence of modern Chinese nationalism. The relationship between local culture and economic development is more complex. Local culture provides ideology and often organisation that supports entrepreneurship and the development of specifically local economic activity. Through local studies in three Chinese provinces – Shanxi, Qinghai and Hainan – it is argued that local culture is not only a significant factor of production but also helps explain the trajectory and organisation of local business.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Government
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
595. Afghanistan's Economy: On the Right Road, But Still a Long Way to Go
- Author:
- Beth Ellen Cole
- Publication Date:
- 11-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Afghanistan has now laid the foundation for a market-based economy. A new economic system, based on the state as a regulator, not a producer, of goods, with a clear separation between the public and private sectors, stands in place of the centralized economy of the past. An independent central bank, a liberalized foreign exchange system, and laws permitting foreigners to wholly own property characterize the new economic landscape. A doubling of the gross national product and per capita income, a 13 percent growth rate in 2007, and modest inflation paint a vibrant picture.
- Topic:
- Security, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Asia
596. Changes in the Distribution of Wealth in China, 1995-2002
- Author:
- Renwei Zhao and Shi Li
- Publication Date:
- 01-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper investigates some major changes in the wealth distribution in China using the data from two national household surveys conducted in 1995 and 2002. The surveys collected rich information on household wealth and its components, enabling a detailed analysis of changes in wealth distribution among Chinese households. Our analysis indicates that the wealth distribution in China as a whole became much more unequal in 2002 than it was in 1995. The housing reform, in which public apartments were sold to urban households at extremely low prices, has accelerated the accumulation of wealth among urban households on the one hand, and widened the wealth gap between urban and rural areas on the other.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
597. Regional Income Inequality in Rural China, 1985-2002: Trends, Causes and Policy Implications
- Author:
- Guanghua Wan
- Publication Date:
- 01-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper depicts the trend of regional inequality in rural China for the period 1985- 2002. The total inequality is decomposed into the so-called within- and between components when China is divided into three regional belts (east, central and west). A regression-based accounting framework is then used to explore root sources of the rising inequality. Policy implications are discussed.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
598. China's Quest for Alternative to Neo-liberalism: Market Reform, Economic Growth, and Labour
- Author:
- Dic Lo
- Publication Date:
- 11-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
- Abstract:
- Since the turn of the century, China's state and society have focused their efforts on “constructing a harmonious society”. Viewed from the perspective of globalization, these efforts represent a quest for a model of development that deviates fundamentally from neo-liberalism. In particular, state policies and institutional reforms in recent years have tended to target at labor compensation-enhancing economic growth, rather than growth based on “cheap labor”. This paper seeks to clarify the nature of the emerging Chinese economic development model, and, on that basis, to analyze its efficiency and welfare attributes. In conjunction with an analysis of China's economic growth path, which seems to have undergone a transition from labor-intensive growth to capital-deepening growth, it is argued that the new development model does represent a more feasible and desirable pursuit than neo-liberalism. The paper concludes with a discussion on the impact of this new Chinese development model on the future direction of globalization.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Globalization, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
599. Infrastructure as Economic Density
- Author:
- Sangaralingam Ramesh
- Publication Date:
- 12-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
- Abstract:
- Income disparities are rising in China as a consequence of the economic reforms post 1979 which virtually gave unchallenged economic growth and prosperity to the coastal regions whose economic growth increased over the last 30 years at the expense of the interior hinterland. Institutions in China have seen the answer to restoring a rural-urban income balance by redistributing people from the interior regions of China to the prosperous coastal regions. This can be seen as a supply side reaction to the income disparity problem, which will inevitably impose the kinds of social costs, which concentrations of populations normally bring. This paper offers insights into other methods of transforming the urban-rural income disparity problem in China, the economic implications of infrastructure investment, the relevance of Krugmans 'New Economic Geography' to the transformative Economics which China has experienced over the last 30 years; and the close relationship between how Krugman's agglomeration economies arise and the development of SEZ's and HTDZ's in China.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Industrial Policy
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
600. Managing Pest Resistance in Fragmented Farms: An Analysis of the Risk of Bt Cotton in China and its Zero Refuge Strategy and Beyond
- Author:
- Fangbin Qiao, Jim Wilen, and Jikun Huang
- Publication Date:
- 02-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- The goal of this study is to discuss why China and perhaps other developing countries may not need a refuge policy for Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cotton. We describe in detail the different elements that a nation—especially a developing one—should be considering when deciding if a refuge policy is needed. Drawing on a review of scientific data, economic analysis of other cases and a simulation exercise using a bio-economic model that we have produced to examine this question, we show that in the case of Bt cotton in China, the approach of not requiring special cotton refuges is defensible.
- Topic:
- Agriculture and Economics
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia