Political Geography: Asia / Topic:

2201. Expo promotes high-quality development

Author:: Dong Yan and Wen Jun
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: China will promote higher-level opening-up by continuing to expand access to its market, increase imports, foster a world-class business environment, deepen multilateral and bilateral cooperation and jointly build the Belt and Road Initiative. This is the promise President Xi Jinping made in his keynote speech at the second China International Import Expo in Shanghai on Tuesday. ...... China's imports have made important contributions to global trade and economic growth, accounting for 10.67 percent of the global goods imports last year. At the second CIIE, which concludes on Sunday, more than 150 countries, regions and international organizations from across five continents are showcasing their development results while more than 3,000 enterprises are holding talks with purchasing agents both inside and outside China. The CIIE is a platform for not only trading goods and services, but also exchanging ideas and discussing global trade issues.
Topic:: Development, International Trade and Finance, Business, Trade, and Imports
Political Geography:: China and Asia

2202. More than meets the eye in ROK ceding developing economy status

Author:: Dong Yan and Ma Tao
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: A large number of farmers in the Republic of Korea took to the streets of Seoul on Wednesday, protesting the government's recent decision to give up its developing country status at the World Trade Organization in future trade negotiations and thus lose the benefits accruing out of it. The protesters were worried that the decision would eventually lead to a drastic cut in state agriculture subsidies and tariffs. …… Given that countries could experience uneven development, gaining undue advantages in some areas while being weak in others, the WTO has prevented some developing countries from enjoying some of the special and differential treatments in certain fields. For instance, it has restricted the ROK and India from using measures to promote balance of payment. Besides, the Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights, revised in 2003, allows countries that lack production capability to import nonproprietary medicines, which is opposed by the developed countries－and 11 countries including China, the ROK, Mexico and Turkey have agreed to implement the agreement only in emergencies.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, World Trade Organization, and Trade
Political Geography:: China, India, Asia, and Korea

2203. Can China’s Diplomatic Partnership Strategy Benefit Outward Foreign Direct Investment?

Author:: Churen Sun and Yaying Liu
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: In the context of global integration, whether a diplomatic partnership strategy can promote outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) and how it works are very important issues for China. Based on a dataset featuring China’s partnerships collected from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs website, we establish an empirical framework to assess the role of China’s diplomatic strategy in its OFDI arising from partnerships since 1993. The results show that the establishment or upgrade of partnerships has had a positive effect on Chinese firms’ decisions on OFDI for at least the short term, especially for firms with higher demand for policy guarantees from the government, such as noncentral firms and non-Beijing firms. The results also show that the increase in OFDI is concentrated in host countries with higher political risks, such as developing countries, neighboring countries, and Belt and Road countries, which is consistent with China’s diplomatic focus. Our research proves that China’s diplomatic strategy can assist firms to invest abroad.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Foreign Direct Investment, Partnerships, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Risk, and Economic Diplomacy
Political Geography:: China and Asia

2204. Tariffs will ultimately harm US economy

Author:: Dong Yan and Zang Chengwei
Publication Date:: 07-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: That Vice-Premier Liu He talked with US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on the phone on Monday raises hope that China and the United States would resume the bilateral trade negotiations.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Economy, Tariffs, Trade Wars, and Trade
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

2205. Fair competition put into practice

Author:: Lu Tong
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: This year's Government Work Report sent an important signal to the global community that China aims to create a fair market environment based on competitive neutrality. Competitive neutrality is a set of public policies for regulating domestic market order. It means that State‐owned enterprises and private businesses compete on a level playing field and that SOEs should not obtain an unfair competitive advantage to the detriment of free trade in such areas as tax, subsidies, debt, supervision and market entrance.
Topic:: Markets, Business, Trade, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: China and Asia

2206. Trade trends show China should take the opportunity to diversify its market

Author:: Dong Yan, Ma Yingying, and Xu Tingting
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: The China-US trade row has been drawing a lot of attention. A detailed review of the bilateral trade situation between China and the US from January through April is a good reference for the future trend. Also, as uncertainties loomed amid tariff hikes, some related US industries were afflicted, such as plants, minerals and precious metal in the first quarter.
Topic:: Markets, Tariffs, Trade Wars, Diversification, and Trade
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

2207. Forty Years Development of China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment: Retrospect and the Challenges Ahead

Author:: Tao Wang and Kailin Gao
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: Outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) has increasingly become an importantmethod for China to integrate into the world economy. This paper comprehensivelyreviews and analyses policy development and the changing pattern of China’s OFDIover the past 40 years. We divide the development into “restricted” (1978–1999), “relaxed” (2000–2016) and “regulated” (2017 onwards) stages. This paper alsoreviews literature on the impact of Chinese OFDI on China and host countries. Despite its generally positive ef ects, large-scale and unbalanced OFDI activitieshave alarmed Chinese policy-makers. Both developing and developed host countrieshave expressed their concern over national security and the misbehavior of someChinese overseas enterprises. Therefore, greater supervision and adjustment fromquantity to quality growth is necessary for the future development of China’s OFDI.
Topic:: Development, History, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: China and Asia

2208. Opinion: What Is China’s Core Economic Interest in Trade War?

Author:: Qiyuan Xu
Publication Date:: 02-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: The trade conflict between China and the U.S. has lasted for more than half a year. The two sides have held several rounds of consultations, but agreements were later broken and tensions have only intensified. The spat will likely be protracted, with frictions to continue and possibly escalate for a period of time, given the two countries’ diverging interests, public opinions and historical experiences. A broad range of issues are involved in the trade dispute. For example, the U.S. has pressured China on forced technology transfer, talent strategy and industrial policy issues, as well as issues the two sides have long been at odds over, such as intellectual property rights, labor, environmental protection, stateowned enterprise reform and foreign exchange rates. Meanwhile, the U.S. has targeted products and sectors that go well beyond those in which China has a competitive advantage. The U.S. tariffs also target industries that the country plans to focus on for future development.
Topic:: Development, Tariffs, Trade Wars, Trade, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

2209. China’s economy seeks bottom amid downward pressure in 2019

Author:: Qiyuan Xu
Publication Date:: 02-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: Proactive fiscal policy will be employed this year to meet the challenge of downward pressure In 2019, the Chinese economy is expected to seek a bottom as a slowdown is inevitable. It is anticipated that it will stabilize at the end of the year or early next year at a growth rate of around 6.3 percent. With China's economy entering a new era, policymakers should focus more on the quality of growth in addition to maintaining a moderately high growth rate. ...... At the same time, China's economy is facing a lot of downward pressuredomestically. First, confidence in the financial market needs to be restored. In2018, China's financial market was hit many times; its stocks, bonds, fundsand internet finance, for example, were all affected. In addition, at present, thewidening credit spreads and the high degree of liquidity between bankscannot be converted into loans to enterprises and other market entities. Facedwith rising market risks and faltering consumer confidence, investors preferlow-risk or risk-free asset allocations.
Topic:: Markets, Financial Markets, Economy, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:: China and Asia

2210. Supply-side reform leads to economic resilience

Author:: Qiyuan Xu
Publication Date:: 02-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: China's GDP grew 6.6 percent in 2018, according to National Bureau o ftatistics data. Despite the slight slowdown in the GDP growth rate, however, exports grew at a relatively high 9.9 percent year-on-year calculated in US dollars. And, not surprisingly, China's trade surplus with the United States expanded further. ...... Besides, the relative prosperity index of small and medium-sized enterprises has dropped to the second-lowest point in a decade, and the financial cost differentiation among various industries is growing. This may have a negative impact on not only short-term macroeconomic stability, but also the development space of relevant emerging industries and long-term growth momentum.
Topic:: Reform, GDP, Economy, Economic Growth, and Resilience
Political Geography:: China and Asia

2211. Perceiving Truth and Ceasing Doubts: What Can We Learn from 40 Years of China’s Reform and Opening up?

Author:: Fang Cai
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: China’s reform, opening up and resultant economic growth in the past 40 years haveled to the accumulation of an immense array of experiences, which economists areobligated to look into, analyze and theorize upon. In fact, the rich literature in thisarea has positively assessed and documented China’s successful experiences. However,theories that were established in Western countries have been applied as doctrine tojudge China’s experiences. By adopting an analytical framework unifying historicallogic and theoretical logic, the purpose of this paper is to reveal the unique Chineseexperience and its relevance to the general laws of economic development. Based on theexperiences of and in reference to research findings about China, this paper chroniclesthe process of reform, opening up and economic growth, and analyzes the nexus betweenthem. The study demystifies how the incentive mechanism, the factor accumulation andallocation system, market development, and macro policy environment reforms havespurred China’s economic growth, structural changes and the increase in productivity.The changes in development stage are examined and policy implications for furtherreform are discussed.
Topic:: Reform, Economy, Economic Growth, and Trade Policy
Political Geography:: China and Asia

2212. Assessing China’s Influence in Europe through Investments in Technology and Infrastructure. Four Cases.

Author:: Frans-Paul van der Putten
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: China’s role as a global investor and financier has grown rapidly in recent decades, nowhere more so than in Europe. In 2017, a full quarter of China’s outbound foreign direct investment was destined for Europe. China has stepped up promotion of its signature Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), with Europe as its final destination, ever greater flows of investment in Eurasian connectivity are on offer. However, in recent years scepticism about rising flows of Chinese investment into the EU has grown. This report aims to carefully scrutinize the linkage between Chinese investment in Europe and China’s influence in the region and provides a nuanced and careful analysis that goes beyond the alarmism and polarization that dominates so much of the recent discussion about China’s role in Europe. It is based on a series of case studies examining a Chinese port investment in Greece, a Chinese-financed rail project in Hungary and Serbia, and two Chinese acquisition deals in the Netherlands. Thus, the authors shed light on the motives behind these individual Chinese investments and financial packages, including the interests of both the Chinese and the host governments and firms involved, evaluating what, if any, Chinese “influence” can be linked to the deals. According to the findings, the specific terms of each investment or loan package are dependent on the individual circumstances of the countries and firms involved. In each case there is an identifiable commercial basis for the Chinese investment, but economic and political viability of each deal varies.
Topic:: Globalization, Investment, and Trade
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and Asia

2213. The US–China trade–tech stand-off and the need for EU action on export control

Author:: Brigitte Dekker and Maaike Okano-Heijmans
Publication Date:: 08-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: As the great power rivalry and (technological) trade conflict between the United States (US) and China intensifies, calls for an export control regime tailored to so-called emerging technologies are growing. In August 2018 the US government announced the Export Control Reform Act (ECRA), seeking to limit the release of emerging technologies to end uses, end users and destinations of concern. The contest is on for the leader in the development and use of emerging technologies, but also for shaping norms and writing the rules for their use. This requires the Netherlands and other EU member states – in coordination with key stakeholders from business and academia – also to redouble their efforts to recraft their own approach to export controls of so-called ‘omni-use’ emerging technologies. This Clingendael Report outlines four levels of action in the field of export control for the Dutch government to pursue in parallel: bilaterally with the US; European Union cooperation; ‘Wassenaar’ and beyond; and trusted communities.
Topic:: Development, Science and Technology, Power Politics, Exports, and Trade
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America

2214. U.S.–Southeast Asia Trade Relations in an Age of Disruption

Author:: Brian Harding and Kim Mai Tran
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The post-World-War II era has seen extraordinary growth in international trade and the creation of regional and global trading frameworks spearheaded by the United States and anchored in the General Agreement on Tariffs (GATT) and the World Trade Organization (WTO). In recent years, frustration with the WTO’s stalled process had pushed U.S. policymakers to pursue regional and bilateral trade agreements. However, since president Donald Trump came to office in January 2017, U.S. trade policy has undergone a dramatic reorientation, creating enormous volatility and impacting global trade and supply chains. President Trump’s decision to pull out of the Transpacific Partnership (TPP) on the third day of his presidency, his focus on reducing bilateral trade deficits, and his interest in only forging new bilateral trade deals have had widespread implications for U.S.-Southeast Asia economic and political relations. In many ways, the United States is no longer a predictable trade partner for Southeast Asian countries, and the uncertainty stemming from U.S.-China trade tensions is further affecting U.S.-Southeast Asia trade relations. Meanwhile, Asian regional economic integration and regional trade architecture are moving ahead without the United States at the table.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Alliance, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:: Asia, North America, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

2215. Creating a Real Peace in Afghanistan

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:: 07-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: It has been a long, grim war since the first U.S. troops appeared in Afghanistan on October 7, 2001. The fighting has now lasted close to 18 years, and the conflict has become one of the worst managed wars in American history. The effort to reinvent Afghan government as a functioning democracy has so far been an unstable nightmare mixing corruption and uncertain central leadership with power brokers, ex-warlords, and divided leadership. Efforts at economic growth and reform have fallen far short of their goals, vast sums have been wasted or lost through corruption, and the current Afghan economy now survives on the basis of outside aid and domestic narcotics exports. Major security efforts have at best produced an uncertain stalemate and one where the Afghan government increasingly seems to be losing control in the countryside in order to maintain its hold on major population centers. Three different Presidents have made major errors in overall strategy. President Bush gave priority to Iraq at the cost of giving the Afghan war proper attention and providing adequate forces to deal with the return of the Taliban. President Obama first authorized a surge — which wasted major resources in Helmand — and then called for a premature U.S. withdrawal based on totally unrealistic goals for Afghan force development. President Trump has adopted a strategy which has no clear political or economic element, and is unclear as to whether the U.S. is willing to keep supporting Afghan government military efforts or is giving priority to peace more as part of an effort to withdraw U.S. forces than to achieve a lasting and meaningful peace settlement. This report addresses the options for staying in Afghanistan, for reaching a cosmetic or real form of peace, and for some form of unilateral withdrawal. It describes the challenges in each area: the current stalemate in conflict and the debate over Afghan Government versus Taliban control, the critical problems in Afghan governance, the weaknesses in the Afghan economy, and the many remaining challenges in creating Afghan forces that can stand on their own. It addresses the challenges in cutting or removing U.S. land and air forces. Finally, it addresses critical problems in assessing and costing the current level of U.S. involvement in the war, and in estimating the future cost of supporting a peace or continuing the fighting.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Public Opinion, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Middle East, Asia, Vietnam, North America, and United States of America

2216. Engaging with India’s Electrification Agenda

Author:: Stephen Naimoli and Kartikeya Singh
Publication Date:: 07-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: In 2019, India completed its program to provide electricity connections to every village and every home in the country. However, even though millions more are now connected, problems remain, including unreliable supply of power and a lack of workforce capacity for utilities to serve an expanded customer base. While India’s central government sets national policy, India’s powerful states have jurisdiction over the power sector and are responsible for implementation of central government programs and policies. For foreign stakeholders interested in supporting India’s electrification agenda, this presents an opportunity for them to engage with states to help meet their energy access priorities. To identify key areas for international engagement, CSIS conducted a survey of government, civil society groups, and energy access practitioners in the Indian states of Assam, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, and Rajasthan on their energy access priorities. Opportunities for collaboration include metering and bill collection, operations and maintenance, quality and reliability of supply, and off-grid technologies, including solar-powered pumps and other appliances.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Infrastructure, Electricity, and Renewable Energy
Political Geography:: India and Asia

2217. China’s New 2019 Defense White Paper

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:: 07-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: For all the furor over Iran and the Gulf, or Britain and Brexit, the most important foreign news of the month is what would normally be a relatively obscure Chinese official document: China’s National Defense in the New Era. This White Paper was issued on July 22nd in both Chinese and English. Unlike China’s previous defense white papers — the most recent of which came out in 2015 and was blandly reassuring to the point of being vacuous — the new White Paper picks up the gauntlet that the U.S. threw down in its 2017 National Security Strategy and in 2018 National Defense Strategy. Both of these documents effectively made China the key objective in strengthening U.S. military forces and single it out as America’s primary strategic competitor. China’s National Defense in the New Era is a clear and detailed 51-page response to the massive shift in U.S. strategy from a focus on counterterrorism and extremism to competition and possible conflict with China and Russia. It flags the fact that America and China are now competing superpowers, and that China’s growing military forces are developing to the point where they will be able to challenge the United States. More than that, the detailed contents of the White Paper are a direct response to the official U.S. reports on Chinese Military Power issued by the Office of the Secretary of Defense and by the Defense Intelligence Agency.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Intelligence, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

2218. Engaging India: Guide to Developing Health Care Partnerships with States

Author:: Nicole Davis, Christa Twyford Gibson, and Jonathan Gonzalez-Smith
Publication Date:: 08-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Indian states control most facets of healthcare delivery. Every state has a different set of healthcare delivery gaps and priorities. Understanding these gaps can help foreign institutions target cooperation more effectively- going to the right place with the right type of cooperation. But having a base for cooperation must be paired with an effective strategy to engage India's states. Issues such as states' political timelines, shifts in key bureaucrats, and other issues can have a major impact on potential projects. In this report, Innovations in Healthcare and CSIS lay out strategies employed by a range of international institutions with current subnational partnerships in India.
Topic:: Health, Governance, Health Care Policy, and Innovation
Political Geography:: India and Asia

2219. Fighting for the Disability Rights through Vernacularization in Bangkok

Author:: Swe Zin Linn Phyu
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Review of Human Rights
Institution:: Society of Social Science Academics (SSSA)
Abstract:: In many non-Western societies there are still challenges to the legibility, and hence applicability, of international human rights law. This is partly due to the gap between Western legal regime and local cultural contexts. However, with the process of vernacularization some of this gap has been bridged, especially in issues of relating to women rights. This paper explores how NGOs and Human Rights defenders in Bangkok have adopted the process of vernacularization to enhance disability rights.
Topic:: Human Rights, International Law, Disability, and NGOs
Political Geography:: Asia, Thailand, Southeast Asia, and Bangkok

2220. Emerging Technologies and Managing the Risk of Tech Transfer to China

Author:: James Andrew Lewis
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: There are deep interconnections between the U.S. and Chinese economies, and China has built its technology base on what it has acquired from the West. China’s government and some Chinese companies will use any means, legal or illegal, to acquire technology. The United States’ relationship with China cannot continue unchanged, but given the interconnections, change must be managed carefully. New restrictions are needed, but counterintuitively, these should be shaped by recognizing that being open makes the United States stronger than being closed. The best approach is an incremental and flexible approach to technology transfer centered on the need to avoid harm to the U.S economy. This report outlines the policy tools that the United States can use to mitigate risk while maintaining the openness that is a hallmark of the U.S. economy.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Intellectual Property/Copyright, Conflict, and Emerging Technology
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

2221. Engaging with India’s Electrification Agenda: Powering Assam

Author:: Stephen Naimoli and Kartikeya Singh
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Assam is the most populous and economically active of the northeastern states and thus acts as the nexus between the mainland and the northeast. Due to insurgencies and armed conflict spanning several decades, Assam struggled to deliver many basic services to its citizens, including electricity, and failed to attract major industries. Coupled with the state’s unique topography of Himalayan foothills, forests, and a massive floodplain dominated by the mighty Brahmaputra River, infrastructure development in the state has not been easy. However, with the settling of several conflicts, the state is poised to be the economic engine of India’s northeast and take its place as India’s gateway to southeast Asia. To do so, it is focusing on agriculture, led by a thriving tea industry and energy resources—the state accounts for 15 percent of India’s total crude oil and 50 percent of onshore natural gas output. On the power sector side, Assam has increased the share of its population with electricity access from 44.57 percent in 2015 to 100 percent in 2019. An important measure of the health of the state’s electric power sector is aggregate technical and commercial losses (AT&C), which measure line losses from transmission and distribution equipment, power theft, billing and collection inefficiencies, and customers’ inability to pay. Assam’s AT&C losses in 2015 were 24.2 percent. Under the state’s Power for All plan formed with the central government, the state’s utility Assam Power Distribution Corporation Limited (APDCL) would target AT&C losses of 18.15 percent in 2019. As of August 2019, this goal has virtually been met—APDCL’s AT&C losses are currently 18.2 percent. Under the central government’s Ujwal Discom Assurance Yojana (UDAY) scheme, which aims to improve the financial health of the country’s utilities, Assam has a target of 150,000 smart meters for customers with monthly consumption between 200-500 kilowatt-hours (kWh) by December 2019. As of August 2019, the state has deployed 15,567 smart meters for these customers, 10 percent of its goal. The state also had a target to deploy 31,000 smart meters for customers with monthly consumption of over 500 kWh per month by December 2017, but to date has only deployed 11,881 smart meters, 38 percent of its goal. Assam has a target to install 663 megawatts (MW) of solar power in the state to contribute to the central government’s target of 100 gigawatts by 2022. As of May 2019, data from the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy indicate it has installed 22.4 MW, 3.38 percent of its goal.
Topic:: Development, Energy Policy, and Electricity
Political Geography:: India and Asia

2222. Research Collaboration in an Era of Strategic Competition

Author:: Stephanie Segal and Dylan Gerstel
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: There is a growing concern in Washington that certain aspects of international scientific collaboration pose a risk to U.S. economic and national security, making it the latest front in rising U.S.-China competition. At the same time, the U.S. innovation ecosystem depends greatly on foreign scientists and partnerships with foreign research institutions. A well-calibrated strategy to manage these risks will maximize openness while protecting intellectual property, research integrity, and national security. These efforts should preserve the ability of the United States to attract top talent, including by maintaining a welcoming environment for foreign researchers, while improving domestic investment in science, technology, engineering, and math outcomes. This report outlines the vulnerabilities arising from foreign research collaboration, the risks of policy overreach, and recommendations to manage risks while maintaining scientific openness.
Topic:: Security, Science and Technology, Innovation, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

2223. Engaging with India’s Electrification Agenda: Powering Chhattisgarh

Author:: Stephen Naimoli and Kartikeya Singh
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Chhattisgarh is a mineral-rich state with abundant coal and iron ore resources and whose coal production gives it an energy surplus, but it is also one of India’s poorest states, with a poverty rate of 40 percent and low human development indicators. Long plagued by left-wing violence, with which it still struggles, Chhattisgarh’s government is trying to diversify the state’s economy by making it an attractive destination for non-extractive industries. Dense forests which house scattered communities coupled with the conflicts have made setting up infrastructure to support household electrification through a centralized grid a challenge for the state government. Absent such infrastructure, the state has been a ripe market for decentralized renewable electrification efforts. Chhattisgarh has increased the amount of its population with electricity access from 84.5 percent in 2015 to 99.67 percent in 2019. An important measure of the health of the state’s electric power sector is aggregate technical and commercial losses (AT&C), which measure line losses from transmission and distribution equipment, power theft, billing and collection inefficiencies, and customers’ inability to pay. Chhattisgarh’s AT&C losses in 2015 were 20.5 percent. Under the state’s 24x7 Power for All plan formed with the central government, Chhattisgarh’s utility Chhattisgarh State Power Distribution Corporation Limited (CSPDCL) would target AT&C losses of 16 percent in 2019. Unfortunately, losses have grown—as of August 2019, they are at 23.28 percent. Under the central government’s Ujwal Discom Assurance Yojana (UDAY) scheme, which aims to improve the financial health of the country’s utilities, Chhattisgarh has a target of 652,146 smart meters for customers with monthly consumption between 200-500 kilowatt-hours (kWh) by December 2019. As of August 2019, the state has not deployed any smart meters for these customers. The state also had a target to deploy 488,307 smart meters for customers with monthly consumption of over 500 kWh by December 2017 but has not deployed any smart meters for those customers either.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Infrastructure, Electricity, and Safe Energy
Political Geography:: India and Asia

2224. CSIS Brief: Beyond the Brink: Escalation and Conflict in U.S.-China Economic Relations

Author:: Matthew P. Goodman, Dylan Gerstel, and Pearl Risberg
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: As the United States and China mark their 40th anniversary of formal diplomatic relations in 2019, the world’s most important bilateral relationship is increasingly defined by mistrust, competition, and uncertainty. After four decades of deepening economic integration, the talk in Washington today is about the extent to which the two economies will “decouple” over the years ahead. In a recent study, the CSIS Simon Chair drew on several different academic disciplines to model how an economic conflict between the United States and China could escalate and eventually de-escalate. Our findings suggest that economic conflict is likely to be an enduring feature of the U.S.-China relationship for many years to come. Until perceptions of relative costs in the two countries shift, Washington and Beijing seem set on a path of continued escalation, no substantial trade deal, and at least partial decoupling of their economies.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Conflict, Trade Policy, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

2225. Engaging with India’s Electrification Agenda: Powering Odisha

Author:: Stephen Naimoli and Kartikeya Singh
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Odisha struggles with significant challenges, including having some of the poorest and most isolated districts in India. Endowed with rich mineral resources and a long coastline, all the key topographical ingredients are in place to catapult the state’s economic development. To address some of the deep-seeded challenges faced by the state’s population, the state government, led by the Biju Janata Dal, has responded with populist measures that have won it unusual stability in office. Odisha’s governments have in the past shown that they are willing to play risk taker as the state, though shaky in its eventual execution, was an early adopter of power sector reforms. Paired with relative political stability, Odisha’s stature as an investment destination is rising. Those wanting to power it’s economic development will find that the key to success is supporting skills development and entrepreneurship in the power sector while supporting renewable energy integration efforts that pair well with the state’s broader development and service delivery initiatives. Odisha has increased the share of the population with electricity access from 82 percent in 2015 to 100 percent in 2019. An important measure of the health of the state’s electric power sector is aggregate technical and commercial losses (AT&C), which measure line losses from transmission and distribution equipment, power theft, billing and collection inefficiencies, and customers’ inability to pay. Odisha’s AT&C losses in 2015 were 38 percent. Under the state’s “24x7 Power for All” plan formed with the central government, the state’s utilities would target AT&C losses of 20 percent in 2019. As of 2018, the state’s utilities have decreased losses to 28 percent. Unlike the other states in this series, Odisha is not participating in the central government’s Ujwal Discom Assurance Yojana (UDAY) scheme to improve the financial health of the country’s utilities, so it does not have targets for smart meter deployment. While smart meters have not yet been deployed in the state, government officials indicated in interviews that they were working with the central government’s Power Finance Corporation to do so. The city of Bhubaneswar has a target of deploying one million smart meters as part of its “Smart City” plan implementation. Odisha has a target to install 2,377 megawatts (MW) of solar power in the state to contribute to the central government’s target of 100 gigawatts (GW) by 2022. As of July 2019, data from the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy indicate it has installed 397.28 MW, 17 percent of its goal.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Electricity, Safe Energy, and Power
Political Geography:: India and Asia

2226. The Art of Summitry

Author:: Judd Devermont
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: It has recently become fashionable to host a regional summit with African leaders. The Arab states, China, the European Union, France, India, Russia, and Turkey all established high-profile diplomatic forums with African counterparts. Japan has been one of the pacesetters, inviting African governments, as well as multilateral institutions, to attend TICAD since 1993. TICAD’s seventh iteration, which was staged in Yokohama from August 28- 30, 2019, welcomed 42 African presidents, vice presidents, and prime ministers and witnessed the signing of 110 memorandums of understanding (MOUs) with African countries and private-sector companies.1,2 The United States chaired one such event, the U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit, in August 2014. While it represented a milestone in U.S.-African diplomatic engagement, the United States has not attempted anything on the same scale since. In 2016, the U.S. Department of Commerce with Bloomberg Philanthropies chaired a second U.S.-Africa Business Forum. President Trump met with eight sub-Saharan African leaders on the margins of the UN General Assembly in 2017 and separately invited Nigerian president Muhammadu Buhari and Kenyan president Uhuru Kenyatta to the White House in 2018. If the U.S. government decides to resume the U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit, it has the potential to deepen ties between the United States and African counterparts, as well as promote trade and investment and advance signature initiatives.
Topic:: Development, Foreign Aid, Leadership, and Humanitarian Intervention
Political Geography:: Africa, Japan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

2227. Smart Money on Chinese Advances in AI

Author:: William A Carter and William Crumpler
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Few countries have embraced the vision of an AI-powered future as fervently as China. Unlike the United States, the Chinese government is dedicating significant resources and attention to AI development and creating a supportive policy environment to facilitate innovation and experimentation and proactively manage risk. However, numerous misconceptions and competing narratives around China’s innovation economy have made it difficult for U.S. policymakers to understand the AI ecosystem in China and its links to AI innovation in the United States. This report seeks to improve this understanding by examining China’s progress toward achieving its four strategic goals. We find that while China’s progress towards AI leadership remains uneven, its commitment to building domestic innovation capacity could allow the country to become a world-leading AI power in the coming decades. China’s progress in AI can complement and accelerate U.S. AI development, and policymakers should avoid responding to China’s advances with counterproductive policies that undermine the U.S. innovative capacity to little or no gain. Instead, the United States should focus on developing a positive agenda for driving its own AI development.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Innovation, Artificial Intelligence, and Emerging Technology
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

2228. Reflections on a Summer of Discontent in Hong Kong

Author:: Kurt W. Tong
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Ambassadors Review
Institution:: Council of American Ambassadors
Abstract:: The summer of 2019, with all its compelling political drama, will certainly be remembered as a pivotal moment in the history of Hong Kong. In the end, however, will 2019 will be remembered as a tragic turning point, heralding Hong Kong’s increasing instability and irrelevancy in the coming years? Or, optimistically, will future historians see this year as a moment when Hong Kong’s key stakeholders, inside and outside the city, were sufficiently reminded of the city’s special value and characteristics to do what is necessary to keep its “one country, two systems” dream alive? The answers to this set of questions will have important implications for the national interests of the United States in the Indo-Pacific region.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Social Movement, Political stability, and State Formation
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, Hong Kong, and United States of America

2229. Japan and the United States: The Future of Global Partnership

Author:: H.E. Shinsuke J. Sugiyama
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Ambassadors Review
Institution:: Council of American Ambassadors
Abstract:: When I was appointed as Japan’s Ambassador to the United States in early 2018, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and other political leaders had very clear instructions to me: they told me to go outside of the Capital Beltway as often as possible to explore the many communities that make up the United States of America. Following this instruction, I have visited nearly 30 states so far. As a diplomat who has frequently interacted with the United States during my career, even I was surprised by the depth of my feelings during these visits. I am finding that this is truly the “United” States of America! In city after city, even as people express worries about the current state of the world, they also mention that the Japan-U.S. alliance and the ties between our people have become a stable constant in these unsettled times. I believe that this full maturation of the Japan-U.S. relationship into a global partnership will allow us to build a more peaceful and prosperous world together.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Partnerships, and Strategic Planning
Political Geography:: Japan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

2230. Do Not Give Up on Turkey's Democracy Just Yet

Author:: Gonul Tol
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Ambassadors Review
Institution:: Council of American Ambassadors
Abstract:: For decades, Turkey’s conflict with its own Kurdish minority has hindered the country’s democratization. But neither Turkey’s democratization nor the Kurdish quest for political rights has occupied an important place in U.S. policy. Turkey’s democratic shortcomings have been ignored by U.S. administrations for the sake of greater geostrategic interests. In a similar fashion, Kurdish rights have been overlooked in the game of power politics. Today’s regional context, however, ties Turkish democracy and the peaceful resolution of the Kurdish question to the U.S. security interests in the region. The United States must therefore pay closer attention to both. There is no doubt that most freedoms under Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have been dramatically curtailed. Opposition leaders continue to face arrest and prosecution. Authorities use anti-terror laws broadly against those who are critical of the government. Thousands of people—including minors, journalists, foreign journalists, human rights activists, and social media users—who exercise their right to freedom of expression face criminal prosecutions on trumped-up terrorism charges. The mainstream media are largely controlled by the government and routinely carry identical headlines. Most concerning of all, however, is the ongoing conflict between the Turkish state and the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). A string of clashes in the mainly Kurdish region between the PKK and Turkish security forces has killed thousands since the ceasefire broke down in 2015—including 464 civilians, 1,166 Turkish security personnel, and 2,544 PKK militants—and displaced 350,000 people[1]. Both the PKK and the Turkish state played a role in the destruction of major segments of Kurdish cities. The political ramifications of the fighting have been equally disastrous. The Turkish state response has largely criminalized Kurdish political expression. Hundreds of Kurdish news outlets have been shut down. Thousands of Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) activists and dozens of Kurdish co-mayors and HDP parliamentarians remain in prison. The Turkish government has removed elected mayors in Kurdish regions and installed government-appointed trustees in all but a few of the 102 HDP-controlled municipalities.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Democracy, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Asia

2231. The Sino-U.S. Phase One Trade Deal Is an Imperfect Painkiller. What's Next?

Author:: Jude Blanchette and Qiu Mingda
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Ambassadors Review
Institution:: Council of American Ambassadors
Abstract:: After two days of intense talks with United States Trade Representative (USTR) Robert Lighthizer, Chinese Vice Premier Liu He and his delegation crossed the street to the White House on the afternoon of October 11th to meet with President Donald Trump for the first time since the negotiations collapsed in May. The visit marked the 13th round of the bilateral trade talks and concluded with an announcement from the Oval Office of a “phase one” agreement. According to President Trump, this included China’s commitment to purchase $40-50 billion of U.S. agricultural products and a pledge to strengthen its intellectual property protection regime domestically. Moreover, Beijing would make still-unknown adjustments to how it manages its currency, the renminbi. For its part, the United States delayed a scheduled tariff hike on $250 billion of Chinese goods from 25% to 30% on October 15th. In addition, the Treasury Department would potentially review its previous decision to designate China a currency manipulator. All in all, it seemed to mark a turning point in the bilateral tensions. According to a tweet from President Trump two days later, this was the beginning of a larger deal that would be spread over three phases and that would benefit American farmers and potentially put an end to the trade hostilities between the two nations. In short, he tweeted, “the relationship with China is very good.” Though he acknowledged that the actual terms of any deal are still being worked out, the President repeatedly expressed optimism that he and Chinese leader Xi Jinping could ink a deal by mid-November during their meeting at the upcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting in Santiago, Chile. Unfortunately, such confidence is misplaced. The decided lack of details on the scope, timing and mechanics of the phase one announcement is an indication of just how preliminary the agreement is. Second, Beijing remains unwilling to make more substantive concessions on core structural issues, ranging from its preferential treatment of its state-owned enterprises to a credible commitment that it will protect the intellectual property of foreign companies. Finally, even if phase one comes to fruition, this won’t do much to reduce the uncertainty that likely will define the U.S.-China relationship for years to come, as both countries begin to openly acknowledge that they are entering a period of prolonged strategic rivalry.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, and Trade Policy
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

2232. Lecture: China's and Russia's Sharp Power

Author:: Christopher Walker, Andrew J. Nathan, Alexander Cooley, and Takako Hikotani
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: Introduction by Takako Hikotani, Gerald L. Curtis Associate Professor of Modern Japanese Politics and Foreign Policy, Columbia University Speaker: Christopher Walker, Vice President for Studies and Analysis, National Endowment for Democracy Discussants: Andrew Nathan, Class of 1919 Professor of Political Science at Columbia University Alexander Cooley, Claire Tow Professor of Political Science and Director of The Harriman Institute for the Study of Russia, Eurasia and Eastern Europe at Columbia University
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Political Science
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Eurasia, and Asia

2233. A Specter is Haunting the West (?): The BRICS and the Future of Global Governance

Author:: Francesco Petrone
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: Western countries are living a period of fragmentation that is (probably) undermining their leadership in dealing with an accountable global governance. Regarding global governance, it has received some criticisms such as the one that identifies it with a theoretical and unclear definition of an illusory enlarged participation to global decision-making, but in practice an attempt to impose Western policies. Furthermore, emerging powers like the BRICS group (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) may undermine this dominance, and the very meaning of global governance itself, inaugurating initiatives that tend to promote their presence in Global South, the creation of parallel institutions, their soft power and the (apparent?) engagement in global issues, such as climate change. In this article, we first analyze the acquired weight of the BRICS, then we highlight the weaknesses of global gover
Topic:: Climate Change, Globalization, Governance, International Institutions, and Emerging Powers
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, China, Europe, India, Asia, South Africa, Brazil, and South America

2234. Indonesian Political Economy: A Historical Analysis

Author:: Tommaso Rossotti
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: Indonesia is one of the largest countries in the world in demographic, geographical and economic terms. Rich in natural resources, it is a member of the G20 and one of the fastest-growing economies in the world. From its independence in 1949, Indonesia lived dramatic changes in its political and economic system, moving from being an authoritarian state with a quasi-planned economy to being a (albeit flawed) democracy with a free market system. This paper is aimed to analyse briefly the most important phases of the post-colonial development path of the country, trying to highlight the events which mainly changed Indonesian economy and from this understand which are its sources of strength and weakness. The paper is therefore divided into three main parts. The first covers the most salient events that occurred in the country from its independence till mid-1990s, with a particular emphasis on Suharto’s “New Order” regime. The second part mainly focuses on the Asian Financial Crisis, explaining its causes and its political and economic effects on Indonesia. Finally, the last part deals with Indonesia in XXI century, focusing on the similarities and differences with the previous period and on the effects of the Global Financial Crisis on Indonesia.
Topic:: Emerging Markets, Political Economy, Natural Resources, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Indonesia and Asia

2235. Not Our War: Iraq, Iran and Syria’s Approaches towards the PKK

Author:: I. Aytac Kadioglu
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: Terrorist violence led by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) is one of the major issues of Turkey since the 1980s. This violence is based upon Kurdish ethnic identity aimed towards establishing an independent Kurdish state in Turkey’s southeast, northern Iraq, northern Syria and north-western Iran. Despite this aim, the terrorist campaign of the PKK predominantly targets security forces and civilians in Turkey. However, the existence of a terrorist group such a long time raises a question of the impact of external support on the formation and maintenance of the PKK. While Turkey has criticised constantly its southern neighbours on the PKK’s activities and tactics, the regional approaches have been largely neglected in the existing scholarly literature. This article aims to close this gap by focusing on the role played by Iraq, Iran and Syria in the PKK terrorism and Turkey’s counter-terrorism policies. The article argues that the major reasons for the unsuccessful result of Turkey’s effort to destroy the PKK were the approaches of ignorance of the PKK activities and the use of the group as a trump card by the three neighbours and insufficient policies to keep under control the regional dimension of the conflict. The article critically analyses historical relationships between these three states and Turkey to explore how the regional dimension has affected the resolution of this conflict.
Topic:: Terrorism, War, Ethnicity, Conflict, and State Sponsored Terrorism
Political Geography:: Iraq, Europe, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Asia, Syria, and Kurdistan

2236. Working hand in hand to create a brighter future for China and Poland

Author:: Liu Guangyuan
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:: Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:: Ambassador Liu Guangyuan’s keynote speech at the conference on the 70th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations.
Topic:: International Relations, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, and Poland

2237. Three boards: security, economy and the new unknown. The complicated relationship between China and Central and Eastern Europe

Author:: Michal Lubina
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:: Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:: Two decades ago, when China economically entered Western Europe for the first time, two dominant narratives emerged. The first one claimed that China’s involvement constitutes a great development opportunity for European continent; the other one declared that it’s a serious security threat. Those two discourses on China remain dominant until now and the opportunity vs. threat dichotomy can now also be applied to Chinese’s policy towards Central and Eastern Europe. Th e answer for the dichotomy is both. China’s engagement means a great opportunity for development for Central and Eastern Europe. Th e success, however, is uncertain. It may never fulfill due to external factors and the drawbacks may overshadow the benefits.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, and Economy
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia, and Central Europe

2238. Chinese and Western Comedy – an Introduction into Cross-Cultural Humour Research between Taiwan, China and the West

Author:: Konrad Piwowarczyk
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:: Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:: The use of humour, both proper and improper, can influence the outcomes of meetings and shape entire relationships. Hence, although often trivial in nature, humour can play a significant role in human lives and deserves to be taken seriously. The same is true when it comes to the analysis of humour across cultures. In today’s increasingly globalized world, where people from various cultures interact on an almost daily basis it is important to understand the other persons culture, including their sense of humour. Consequently, this article provides a basic overview of humour of the world’s two biggest and most prominent cultures: the English speaking West and the Sinitic world. There is no doubt Chinese and Western humour differ in history and contemporary structure, therefore this article presents the various forms of comedic expression found in both cultures, but also provides basic explanations as to the reasons behind these differences.
Topic:: Culture, Society, and Humor
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America

2239. Comparative Nuclear Policy: A Case Study of U.S. Impact on India and Brazil Programs (1946-2018)

Author:: Cristina Soreanu Pecequilo and Artur Cruz Bertolucci
Publication Date:: 08-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: The knowledge regarding nuclear technology represented a new reality for the generation of energy and international security. The nuclear attacks of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945 represented the beginning of the so-called nuclear era and of the “balance of terror” as presented by many analysts such as Raymond Aron, deepened by the arms race in the US-Soviet bipolarity after 1947. Besides the superpowers, different countries had begun to develop their nuclear programs. The cases of Brazil and India stand out, since they develop their research agendas n the 1950s and 1960s, in the Cold War context, as a path to enhance their autonomy and bargaining power. The spread of the nuclear knowledge represented a challenge for the superpowers, and the talks for mechanisms of nuclear proliferation control such as the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) started. This is the context in which Brazil and India develop their nuclear programs under the impact of its bilateral relations with the US. Although, these programs were convergent at first, in the search for nuclear autonomy, adjustments are going to be observed on both policies after the end of the Cold War. The article aims to understand the importance and history of Brazil and India nuclear programs and US weight on these agendas.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Military Strategy, Nuclear Power, and Denuclearization
Political Geography:: India, Asia, Brazil, South America, North America, and United States of America

2240. China's Global Power and Development: The Made in China 2025 Policy

Author:: Diego Pautasso
Publication Date:: 08-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: The purpose of this article is to analyze the relationship between development and global power of China. And, more specifically, how the Made in China 2025 policy is designed to deepen China’s development by driving strategic sectors of smart manufacturing and other innovations. To do so, it needs to understand how China has taken advantage of systemic changes since the 1970s to unleash a cycle of comprehensive reforms mobilizing industrial, commercial and technological (ICT) policies. That is, without state emulation there is no economic complexity or expansion of the country’s presence in the world. The proposed argument is that the interweaving between the internal and international dimensions compose the key of the rise of the powers - imperative underestimated by the narratives of liberal globalization - whose epicenter remains the national development.
Topic:: Development, Globalization, Science and Technology, Hegemony, Manufacturing, and Industrialization
Political Geography:: China and Asia

2241. Behind the Myth of the National Bourgeoisie: A Comparative Analysis of the Developmentalist State in Brazil and South Korea

Author:: Pedro Brites and Bruna Coelho Jaeger
Publication Date:: 08-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: Since the 1990s, many analysts have sought to explain the differences in development paths between Brazil and South Korea, the latter often being pointed as an example of success. As a highly industrialized economy focused on international trade, the South Korean case stood out as a way of overcoming the backwardness of developing countries. However, there is a need for analysis that point to the specificities of the developmental state in South Korea, whose interventionist action was decisive in leveraging the country’s industrial production in accordance with internal business groups, as well as the geopolitical context favorable to outward-oriented industrialization. The Brazilian process, in turn, due to the wealth of natural resources and the large domestic market, has made the induction of the state in industrialization more artificial, whose policy supposes an element of coercion, induction and control. This research, therefore, seeks to analyze the specific dimensions of each case, highlighting the role of the state and its relationship with the internal bourgeoisie in the construction of an industrial policy. The trajectories of rise and decline of Brazilian and South Korean developmental state will be analyzed, including the current crisis of reconfiguration of political power that both countries are going through.
Topic:: Development, Science and Technology, Governance, and Industrialization
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, Brazil, and South America

2242. Income and consumption inequality in China: A comparative approach with India

Author:: Carlos Gradín and Binbin Wu
Publication Date:: 08-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: We analyse income and expenditure distribution in China in a comparative perspective with India. These countries represent extreme cases in the relationship of inequality to both wellbeing indicators. Income is more highly concentrated than expenditure in India, especially at the top of the distribution. Both types of inequality are similar in China, although expenditure is more unequally distributed than income in urban areas. China has a much stronger correlation in individual ranks and levels between the two wellbeing distributions. As a result, expenditure inequality is higher in China than in India, but income inequality much lower. This results partially from differences in population composition, such as China being more urbanized and having smaller households, but mostly from differences in conditional income distributions, especially by attained education of the household head. We show that hybrid measures of wellbeing combining income and expenditure can be useful for such cross-country comparison.
Topic:: Inequality, Income Inequality, and Consumerism
Political Geography:: China, South Asia, India, and Asia

2243. Resurgent Asia: Diversity in Development

Author:: Deepak Nayyar
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: In 1820, Asia accounted for two-thirds of world population and over half of world income. The subsequent decline of Asia was attributable to its integration with a world economy shaped by colonialism and driven by imperialism. By 1970, Asia was the poorest continent in the world, marginal except for its large population. Its demographic and social indicators, among the worst anywhere, epitomized its underdevelopment. A deep pessimism about Asia’s economic prospects, voiced by Gunnar Myrdal in Asian Drama, was widespread at the time.
Topic:: Economics, History, Economic Growth, and Economic Transformation
Political Geography:: Asia

2244. The 10th Special Measures Agreement between the U.S. and South Korea: Analysis and Implications for Northeast Asia

Author:: Elton J. Chun
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: The United States and the Republic of Korea concluded the 10th Special Measures Agreement on February 10, 2019. The two countries agreed to a one-year agreement after difficult negotiations in which Washington demanded that Seoul increase the amount paid to offset the costs of stationing American forces in Korea. Since 1991, Washington and Seoul have concluded 10 Special Measures Agreements. Unlike the previous five-year agreement, the 10th SMA was a “stopgap deal” that covered a one year of bilateral defense budgets with an option of extending the agreement for an additional year; it was the first SMA negotiated by the Trump administration. This article examines the 10th Special Measures Agreement, exploring the history of defense cost sharing between the two countries, effects on South Korea, implications for coordinating policy on North Korea, and influences on Japan, Russia, and China. The article concludes with an assessment on how the 10th Special Measures Agreement and other factors will affect future agreements.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, and Armed Forces
Political Geography:: Japan, China, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and United States of America

2245. The U.S.- ROK Alliance and its Discontents: Investigating the Effects of the Alliance on Civil-Military Relations in South Korea

Author:: Trisha Ray
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: Until the late 1980s, the Republic of Korea was under de facto military rule. Accordingly, South Korea’s uniformed military had an outsized influence on domestic and foreign policy for much of the nation’s history. When the military regime gave way to civilian rule, scholars chronicled the emergence of democratic ideals in South Korea, including the cornerstone: civilian control of the military. As civil-military relations evolved, the uniformed military continued to influence areas of defense policy that are reserved for civilian leaders in other liberal democracies. This paper analyzes the United States-Republic of Korea Alliance’s influence on civil-military relations in South Korea using institutional and alliance legitimacy theories of organization. It proposes a triangular relationship between the uniformed military, civilian government, and military alliance with the United States. Institutional biases influence the uniformed military’s interactions with the alliance, while public opinion shapes the civilian government’s relationship with the alliance. In turn, how military officers and elected civilians view and relate to the alliance affects their relationship with one another. There is a positive correlation between perceptions of the alliance and the modes of civilian control over the military. Additionally, South Korean views of American leadership play a greater role in determining alliance favorability than perceptions of common security threats.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Alliance, Legitimacy, and Institutions
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

2246. Can Memories of the Japan-Korea dispute on “Comfort Women” Resolve the Issue?

Author:: Gabriel Jonsson
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: About 80 percent of the estimated 70,000 to 200,000 ”comfort women” Japan took by coercion from 1932 to 1945 were Korean. The issue was long neglected by both countries for pragmatic reasons. When Korean women raised the issue around 1990 and the former comfort woman Kim Hak-sun came out in 1991, it emerged as a point of dispute. Solidarity organizations in both countries have contributed to raise the visibility of the issue. Museums in Seoul and Tokyo educate the public on victims’ suffering. However, increased awareness has not succeeded in producing a solution to the issue that satisfies both countries given their fixed positions. Japan has given no official apology to the victims. The crucial issue of legal responsibility remains unresolved. On December 28, 2015, Japan expressed an apology and agreed to provide $8.3 million for a foundation to be established by South Korea to support the victims. However, the issue remains unresolved since the victims were not consulted in advance of the agreement, as well as disagreement also on other issues.
Topic:: Human Rights, War, Women, History, Memory, Sexual Violence, and Comfort Women
Political Geography:: Japan, Asia, and Korea

2247. Freeze and Advance: How North Korea Maneuvered to Get the Bomb and Prospects for Its Nuclear Future

Author:: George Hutchinson
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: U.S. administrations have opted to negotiate with North Korea in an attempt to curb its nuclear ambitions. Rather than producing their intended effect, past negotiations have inadvertently served as a vehicle for North Korea to methodically achieve its nuclear objectives. This paper presents evidence of North Korea’s decades-old drive to maneuver through negotiations while also advancing its nuclear development, including its resistance to sign the IAEA safeguards agreement and its subsequent demands under the Agreed Framework which allowed Pyongyang to advance the clandestine portions of its nuclear program. The paper also explains, more specifically, how North Korea has used the negotiating process with the U.S. to achieve its objectives. Nuclear negotiations have followed a repeating cycle, with North Korea: (1) getting to the negotiating table; (2) agreeing to a freeze under a system of verification; (3) obstructing the verification process intended to monitor the freeze and then (4) blaming the U.S. for the ultimate collapse of the agreement while continuing to advance its weapons program. Finally, the paper uses the ‘repeating cycle’ framework above to assess events that have occurred during the Trump administration in order to predict probable future outcomes.
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, War, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

2248. South Korean Defense Budgets 2017-2019: Paying More Despite a Reduced Threat?

Author:: Todd B. Boese
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: This article analyzes the defense budgets of the Republic of Korea for 2018, 2019, and 2020 in order to determine if the requirements and objectives articulated in government policy rhetoric are receiving increased fiscal resources. Funding for programs associated with policy objectives indicates the political importance of those objectives. Determination of funding levels for budget programs is based on analysis of documents published by the ROK National Assembly, while identification of defense requirements and objectives is based on a review of statements made by the South Korean government. This research concludes that increases to the defense budget are not driven by changes in the security environment or security policy, but rather are a function of government expansionary fiscal policy. However, increased funding for aircraft programs in conjunction with decreased funding for maneuver and firepower programs does reflect the government’s objective to build a more balanced military force.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Government, Budget, and Defense Industry
Political Geography:: Asia and South Korea

2249. China’s Role in Inter-Korean Relations

Author:: Gordon G. Chang
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: China has great power over both Koreas, but its influence looks to be at its peak. There are many reasons for this, but the most important is that the two Koreas are moving closer together and in the process shutting out outsiders. Moreover, the U.S., as it seeks to disarm North Korea, is pursuing policies undercutting Beijing’s role on the peninsula. And to make matters worse, China is beginning to limit its own effectiveness.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and United States of America

2250. Strategic Annual Report 2019 : Battles over Techno-hegemony: Japan's Course

Author:: Japan Institute of International Affairs (JIIA)
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
Abstract:: With attention focused on advanced technologies in the context of international relations and international security, battles over techno-hegemony have surfaced. The most prominent form of technological competition is the race for simple technological advantage. First, each country considers its technological capabilities to be directly linked to its own security interests and, in a more straightforward manner, views them as sources of hard power and pursues relative technological superiority. Each country expects and/or worries about the disruptive innovations that introduce cutting-edge technologies as game changers in the military domain. Second, the technological capabilities of a nation do not determine only the superiority or inferiority of its military power. Technology is also used as a diplomatic tool. Some countries can impose constraints on access to critical technology, a choke point for products, and force other countries to make concessions.
Topic:: International Relations, Science and Technology, and International Security
Political Geography:: Japan and Asia

2251. Assessing How Foreign State-Owned Enterprises' U.S. Based Operations Disrupt U.S. Jobs

Author:: Oxford Economics
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: The entrance of a Chinese state-owned enterprise (SOE) in the transit passenger railcar manufacturing sector disrupts the current private-sector competitive railcar manufacturing sector in the U.S. In this study, Oxford Economics measures the net effects, stemming from this disruption by quantifying the loss to U.S. jobs, income and GDP that result from anti-competitive SOE practices. Even when domestic protective measures, such as 'Buy America' are put in place loss due to the SOE offshoring key apsects of their supply chain quickly accumulates--especially given the size and duration of municipal transit railcar contracts. We estimate that for every $1 billion in new contracts awarded to a Chinese SOE, the U.S. loses between 3,250 and 5,100 jobs.
Topic:: Hegemony, Employment, State Actors, Manufacturing, Job Creation, Supply Chains, and Contracts
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

2252. The Economic Impact of Huawei in Japan

Author:: Oxford Economics
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: Since opening its first office in Japan in 2005, Huawei has played a significant role in developing Japan's digital infrastructure. Working collaboratively with local manufacturers and innovators, the company has developed a suite of innovations that tailor technology solutions to the Japanese context. Huawei also delivers long-term benefits to Japan's productive potential, through its investment in Japanese research and development and the training it provides to its employees and the wider Japanese workforce. This report, commissioned by Huawei, seeks to quantify the company's "total economic impact" across Japan, through its direct operations and the "knock-on effects" it creates in Japanese supply chains and the wider economy. We find that in 2018, Huawei sustained a JPY 766 billion contribution to Japan's GDP, supported 46,400 Japanese jobs and generated JPY 208 billion in tax revenues.
Topic:: Economics, Tax Systems, Innovation, and Private Sector
Political Geography:: Japan and Asia

2253. Global Energy in Transition: How the EU Should Navigate New Realities and Risks

Author:: Andreas Goldthau
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Global energy demand is shifting to Southeast Asia. This new trade flow is altering market power because it not only follows natural economic development, but also results from strategic trade and investment policies that promote national interests. In this context, the EU needs to account for the geo-economic side effects of the new European Green Deal.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, Energy Policy, European Union, Risk, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe, Asia, and Southeast Asia

2254. Security First, Technology Second: Putin Tightens his Grip on Russia’s Internet – with China’s Help

Author:: Andrei Soldatov
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Since his return to the Russian presidency in 2012, Vladimir Putin has sought to bring the Russian internet under his control. Digital businesses in Russia pay dearly for his expensive system of surveillance and censorship. This slows down the pace of innovation and puts the modernization of the economy at risk. Even then, technical control over the internet remains shaky. The Kremlin is seeking Chinese assistance to enforce restrictions and be able to cut Russia off from the global internet.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Authoritarianism, Internet, Surveillance, and Censorship
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Eurasia, and Asia

2255. From 'Rebalance to Asia' to 'Free and Open Indo-Pacific': The Development of the U.S.-Vietnam Comprehensive Partnership

Author:: Bich T. Tran
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Under the Obama administration’s Rebalance to Asia, Vietnam gradually gained importance in U.S. foreign policy as the two countries formed a “comprehensive partnership” in 2013. Despite the Trump administration’s America First policy, the United States prioritizes its partnerships with Vietnam and other Southeast Asian countries in its Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy. While a common concern about China’s behavior in the South China Sea has facilitated the growth of U.S.-Vietnam relations, the foundation of the relationship is cooperation on Vietnam War legacy issues. The two countries have made remarkable progress in advancing diplomatic, economic, and defense ties regardless of remaining challenges. The year 2020 would be ideal for the United States and Vietnam to upgrade the relationship to a “strategic partnership”: it marks the 25th anniversary of the normalization of bilateral relations, Hanoi’s ASEAN chairmanship, and the start of Vietnam’s term as a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, Economy, Donald Trump, and Barack Obama
Political Geography:: Asia, Vietnam, and United States of America

2256. Now I Know my ABCs: U.S.-China Policy on AI, Big Data, and Cloud Computing

Author:: Wenhong Chen
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Artificial Intelligence (AI), Big Data, and Cloud Computing (ABC) have generated unprecedented opportunities and challenges for economic competitiveness, national security, and law and order, as well as the future of work. ABC policies and practices have become contentious issues in U.S.-China bilateral relations. Pundits see a U.S.-China AI race and are already debating which country will win. Kaifu Lee, the CEO of Sinovation Ventures, believes that China will exceed the United States in AI in about five years. Others argue that China will never catch up. This essay focuses on two issues: the comparative ABC strengths of the United States and China in data and research and development (R&D); and the emerging ABC policies and practices in the two nations. Empirical analysis suggests that the United States and China lead in different areas. Compared to China’s top-down, whole-of-government, national- strategy approach, the U.S. ABC policy has been less articulated but is evolving.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Artificial Intelligence, Strategic Competition, Data, and Cloud Computing
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

2257. Chinese, Japanese, and Korean Inroads into Central Asia: Comparative Analysis of the Economic Cooperation Roadmaps for Uzbekistan

Author:: Timur Dadabaev
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: China, Japan, and South Korea have regarded Central Asia as a new Asian frontier in their foreign policies since the collapse of the Soviet Union. With time, their policies evolved into regionbuilding initiatives exemplified by the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Belt and Road Initiative, Central Asia plus Japan Dialogue Forum, and Korea-Central Asia Cooperation Forum. This paper raises the following research questions: What are the areas of interest for China, Japan, and Korea in their relations with Central Asian states and Uzbekistan in particular? What are the patterns of agenda setting in establishing intergovernmental cooperation? What are the particular projects that these states initiate? What are the objectives of projects initiated within these areas of interest? How competitive or complementary are these projects of China, Japan, and Korea? Throughout, Chinese, Japanese, and Korean “Silk Road” roadmaps with Uzbekistan are discussed to highlight their similarities and differences.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economy, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:: Japan, China, Central Asia, Asia, South Korea, and Uzbekistan

2258. US-Southeast Asia Trade is Increasing, but so are Deficits

Author:: Malcolm Cook
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Conventional narratives are either supported by facts or overcome them. Recent increased trade flows between the US and the ten economies of Southeast Asia suggest that the predominant narrative of the commercial displacement of the United States by China in Southeast Asia is incorrect. However, the United States’s growing trade deficits and shrinking surpluses with Southeast Asia do bolster an American mercantilist narrative that bilateral deficits are an economic loss for the US caused by Southeast Asian governments’ unfair trade policies.
Topic:: Global Markets, Economy, Trade, and Deficit
Political Geography:: Asia, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

2259. Domestic Politics Force India's Withdrawal from RCEP and Broader Trade Disengagement

Author:: Amitendu Palit
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) negotiations concluded at the ASEAN Summit in Bangkok on November 4, 2019. Fifteen RCEP members, including the ten-ASEAN countries, and Australia, China, Japan, Korea and New Zealand, agreed to commence preparation of the legal text of the agreement for signing in 2020. India was the only member to opt out, citing significant unresolved outstanding issues. India’s decision was surprising as it actively participated in the negotiations that lasted for 29 rounds and went on for more than six years since beginning in 2013. Domestic pressures forced Prime Minister Modi to withdraw India from RCEP at the last minute. It also points to disengagement becoming the prominent character of India’s trade policy as domestic protectionist interests successfully undermine outward-oriented economic visions.
Topic:: Politics, Treaties and Agreements, Economy, Trade, and ASEAN
Political Geography:: China, India, and Asia

2260. Addressing China's Exported Emissions

Author:: Amy Namur
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Once known as the world's top carbon polluter, China has recently recommitted itself as a leader in sustainability and renewable energy. Moving to fill the gaps left by the United States at the Paris Climate Talks, China has ramped up its renewable energy commitments, including plans to cap its CO2 emissions, drastically increase forest stocks, and expand its non-fossil fuel market share to 20 percent, all by 2030. This move has been highly favorable for Chinese diplomatic relations with its Southeast and Pacific Island neighbors who have labeled climate change as a top priority. Domestically the extensive health impacts of air pollution in China has rallied public opinion against the pollution industry, making the move to green energy both a wide berth of support. While still the highest CO2 emitting country in the world, China has made significant investments in renewable energy development and currently leads the planet in renewable investments abroad. China’s domestic commitment to sustainability has been ambitious; however, meeting these goals has created one of the biggest energy paradoxes of the 21st century.
Topic:: Climate Change, Renewable Energy, Sustainability, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: China and Asia

2261. Public and Opinion Leaders' Views on US-China Trade War

Author:: Craig Kafura
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: The Trump Administration has taken an aggressive line on US-China trade issues. Starting with steel and aluminum tariffs in March 2018, the United States has gradually imposed a number of tariffs on various Chinese goods. China responded in turn to each round. Recent negotiations, though initially fruitful, foundered on issues of Chinese subsidies and what US trade representative Robert Lighthizer described as “an erosion in commitments by China.” Now the escalation cycle has resumed. According to surveys conducted in 2018 among foreign policy opinion leaders by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and the University of Texas, and the results of the 2018 Chicago Council Survey of the general US public, concerns about a potential trade war between the United States and China were already widespread before this most recent escalation.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, Public Opinion, and Trade Wars
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

2262. Americans Favor US-China Trade, Split Over Tariffs

Author:: Craig Kafura
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: Over the past 18 months, the United States and China have engaged in a steady escalation of tariffs. Beginning with steel and aluminum tariffs imposed by the Trump administration in March 2018, the trade conflict has expanded to cover hundreds of billions of dollars in bilateral trade. Recent rounds of negotiations have made no new progress and have led to both sides escalating further. The most recent US tariffs on Chinese imports went into effect on September 1, covering $112 billion of goods. Beijing has countered with retaliatory tariffs and has halted all agricultural purchases from the United States, a move targeted at already-struggling US farmers. While Americans broadly support engaging in trade with China, they are split along partisan lines on how to engage in that trade. Republicans support raising tariffs on Chinese imports and believe it will help the US economy in the long run, while Democrats oppose doing so and believe it will be harmful.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, Tariffs, and Trade Wars
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

2263. Public Prefers Cooperation and Engagement with China

Author:: Craig Kafura
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: Since the Trump administration took office in 2017, it has pursued a more competitive relationship with China on both economic and security fronts. The Trump administration’s 2017 National Security Strategy stated that China “seeks to displace the United States in the Indo-Pacific region,” and Washington and Beijing have been engaged in an escalating trade war since the United States first imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports in March 2018. Just as the high-level US-China relationship has taken a sharp turn towards competition, so too have public perceptions of Sino-American relations: a February 2019 Chicago Council poll found that a majority of Americans describe the United States and China as rivals (63%) rather than partners (32%), a shift that has occurred across partisan lines. However, Americans have not fully closed the door to bilateral cooperation, and most Americans do not see the rise of China as a critical threat to the United States.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Public Opinion, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

2264. Cooperation and Hedging: Comparing US and South Korean Views of China

Author:: Karl Friedhoff, Dina Smeltz, J. James Kim, Kang Chungku, and Scott A. Snyder
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: While Seoul and Washington currently agree on using high-level diplomacy to encourage North Korea to denuclearize, South Korean and US approaches toward China differ and could become a source of friction between the two allies. Under President Donald Trump, the United States has confronted China through tariffs on Chinese imports and identified China as a near-peer adversary. Meanwhile, South Korean President Moon Jae-in has made efforts to end a dispute with China over the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system and indicated openness to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Public preferences in both the United States and South Korea are not necessarily aligned with their own governments’ policies toward China. Chicago Council and Asan Institute surveys conducted in 2019 find that both South Koreans and Americans see a strengthened US-ROK alliance as an asset in dealing with China, suggesting that Washington and Seoul can afford to strengthen coordination between their policies toward China.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Geopolitics, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: China, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

2265. American Public Backs US Military Presence in Japan

Author:: Craig Kafura
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: At the highest level, the relationship between President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan has been cordial and at times productive. The two leaders have met often, and in October the United States and Japan signed a trade agreement focused on agriculture and digital trade. However, President Trump’s longstanding skepticism toward US alliances and the coming negotiations over Japanese support for American troops in Japan could strain the relationship. Despite the challenges ahead, Americans remain supportive of the US military presence in Japan and say the US-Japan relationship strengthens US security.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Public Opinion, Military Affairs, Alliance, and Troop Deployment
Political Geography:: Japan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

2266. While Positive toward US Alliance, South Koreans Want to Counter Trump’s Demands on Host-Nation Support

Author:: Karl Friedhoff
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: From December 9 to 11, the Chicago Council on Global Affairs conducted a poll in South Korea on South Korean attitudes toward the United States, the alliance between the two countries, and the ongoing negotiations about host-nation financial support.
Topic:: Security, Bilateral Relations, Public Opinion, Alliance, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and United States of America

2267. Rebuilding a Bipartisan Consensus on Trade Policy

Author:: Phil Levy
Publication Date:: 04-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: Once upon a time, there was centrist, bipartisan support for US leadership in crafting an open global trading system. Over recent decades, though, as trade grew more complex, the share of US workers in manufacturing fell, and China emerged as an economic power, that consensus dissolved. By the 2016 election, both major party presidential candidates opposed the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a trade agreement central to US economic and foreign policy. Lest this opposition seem to represent a new consensus, it ushered in the recent period of political discord over trade. While some praised aggressive US actions to address trade deficits and national security concerns, others worried about the fraying of the global trading system and international markets lost to retaliatory barriers. This book provides the non-specialist reader with the background to understand the debates about trade. It begins by briefly tracing the history of US support for trade, as well as the shifts in the manufacturing sector that helped inspire calls to “make America great again.” It also considers the particular challenges posed by China’s emergence as a trading power while calling into question popular thinking on the resultant “China Shock” to US manufacturing. The book also offers an accessible guide to many of the esoteric topics that underlie today’s trade debates. It starts with tariffs, but proceeds to tackle issues such as trade deficits, intellectual property rights protection, rules of origin for goods, antidumping procedures, labor and environmental protections, and sovereignty. Finally, the book offers ways to move beyond the impasse that had emerged by 2016. Rather than focusing on a specific agreement such as the updated NAFTA (USMCA), it looks at whether deals should be bilateral or multilateral, and just how transparent negotiations need to be. It divides some particularly contentious issues into those that are easily addressed, those that might be feasible with work, and those that are nonstarters. While most of the work to restore a consensus would be difficult, the rewards would be great. The book concludes with a warning that the penalties for not restoring US leadership on trade could be severe.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economy, Trade Policy, and Political Parties
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

2268. Addressing China's Rising Influence in Africa

Author:: Michael Tiboris
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: Addressing China's Rising Influence in Africa MAY 21, 2019 By: Michael Tiboris, Nonresident Fellow, Global Water Key facts and figures China is now the largest trading partner for the African continent, and China’s Export-Import Bank aims to invest more than $1 trillion in the continent by 2025. In addition, China has now surpassed the United States government in total agriculture R&D funding. China has increased its presence in African development—a trend that will persist because its model is extremely attractive to both China and many African nations. China’s growing contributions to African development should not automatically be feared, but their increased presence should create a recalibration in US approaches to development. Current US National Security Advisor and former Ambassador John Bolton in his announcement of the administration’s Prosper Africa initiative cast China’s presence in Africa as a strategic challenge for the United States. The market opportunities on the African continent are enormous. Consumer expenditure is expected to reach $2.1 trillion by 2025 and $2.5 trillion by 2030. The World Bank estimates that the African food market alone could be worth $1 trillion by 2030, more than tripling the current $300 million market. China’s ability to directly finance and construct infrastructure projects with fewer conditions is unique and has raised worries in some quarters about the expropriation of natural resources, environmental hazards, labor displacement, unstable debt burdens, and land grabs. In addition, China’s investment strategy leaves notable gaps that the United States, leaning on its expertise, can fill. The most direct and sustainable mechanism for moving people out of poverty is investment in agriculture—in particular, smallholder agriculture. US leadership on global water, food, and nutrition security is essential to catalyze the innovations and development necessary to achieve US foreign policy and development goals on the continent. To maintain its global leadership in this strategically important continent, the United States should consider prioritizing technical assistance for water sustainability and thereby support sanitation and agricultural growth. The United States must also continue to find ways to deepen its relationships with African partners to demonstrate US commitment to building resilience and self-reliance in these communities for the long term. Simultaneously, the United States and its allies should work through international institutions to encourage China to adopt policies that achieve shared global objectives in economic development, security, human welfare, and sustainability.
Topic:: Infrastructure, Banks, Trade, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: Africa, China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

2269. The Sea as Catalyst of Geopolitics: from Mahan to the Chinese Boom / El mar como catalizador de la geopolítica: de Mahan al auge chino

Author:: Josep Baqués Quesada
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: China is the State that has grown the most economically and militarily in the past decades. Although its armed forces are still far from the US, the enormous Chinese commercial projection and its policy of providing facilities in ports on all continents, together with the creation of a powerful fleet of the high seas, recall the path traveled years ago by other great powers. But China, unlike the United Kingdom of the nineteenth century or the USA in the twentieth century, is rather a Rimland´s power with one foot in the Heartland. Precisely for this reason, this analysis tests the Chinese capacity from the theoretical framework least favorable for her, that is, the maritime power of Mahan. The conclusion is that, despite certain deficits in purely geographical issues, many of the parameters once defined by Mahan endorse the Chinese candidacy.
Topic:: Armed Forces, Geopolitics, Navy, Economic Growth, and Maritime
Political Geography:: China and Asia

2270. Water Security in the Himalayan Region: Navigating Opportunities for Joint Prosperity and Conflict Prevention

Author:: Farwa Aamer and Jace White
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: EastWest Institute
Abstract:: On October 21, 2019, the EastWest Institute (EWI), together with the Multinational Development Policy Dialogue of the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS), convened a high-level roundtable dialogue in Brussels, concerning international water security. The dialogue, the first in the project series, brought together distinguished experts representing both the public and private sectors in China, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal and the European Union to assess the risks and threats to water security and gauge opportunities for future cooperation between co-riparian states in the Himalayan region. The roundtable dialogue consisted of two panels: “Rethinking Hydrodiplomacy in an Uncertain Geopolitical Future,” moderated by Ms. Kitty Pilgrim, international journalist and former CNN correspondent, and “Effective Water Resource Governance through Multi-Stakeholder Partnerships,” moderated by Dr. Peter Hefele, head of the Asia and Pacific team of the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS).
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Security, International Cooperation, and Water
Political Geography:: China, India, Asia, and Himalayas

2271. India's Social Policies: Recent Changes for the Better and Their Causes

Author:: Joachim Betz
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:: Despite being a consolidated democracy with free and fair elections and having a political system with intense party competition, a relatively vibrant civil society, and a functioning federal set-up, India still ranks poorly in terms of the coverage, generosity, efficiency, and quality of its social protection. This is difficult to explain based on the factors usually advanced for the implementation of generous social policies. A second puzzle is the predominantly protective nature of welfare policies in India in the current era of globalisation, which should necessitate policies enabling workers to participate successfully in a more demanding economic environment. These puzzles may be explained partly by (a) the long-term insulation of the Indian economy from international competition, (b) the low share of industry and modern services in GDP until recently, (c) the precedence of identity policies, (d) the fragmentation of the political sphere, and (e) the meagre empowerment of women in India. We should, however, acknowledge that change is underway and that the picture is not bleak across India as a whole – being supported by economic reforms and growth, a greater degree of decentralisation and party competition within the country, increasingly discerning voters, and progress on female education and employment opportunities.
Topic:: Gender Issues, Reform, Democracy, Social Policy, and Welfare
Political Geography:: India and Asia

2272. China’s great game in the Middle East

Author:: Camille Lons, Jonathan Fulton, Degang Sun, and Naser Al-Tamimi
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: China has significantly increased its economic, political, and – to a lesser extent – security footprint in the Middle East in the past decade, becoming the biggest trade partner and external investor for many countries in the region. China still has a limited appetite for challenging the US-led security architecture in the Middle East or playing a significant role in regional politics. Yet the country’s growing economic presence is likely to pull it into wider engagement with the region in ways that could significantly affect European interests. Europeans should monitor China’s growing influence on regional stability and political dynamics, especially in relation to sensitive issues such as surveillance technology and arms sales. Europeans should increase their engagement with China in the Middle East, aiming to refocus its economic role on constructive initiatives.
Topic:: Security, Power Politics, Geopolitics, and Trade
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, Asia, and United States of America

2273. Europe can spearhead a new cycle in transatlantic relations, not President Trump

Author:: Martin Michelot
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:: Transatlantic cooperation has, ever since the election of President Donald Trump, been a topic of contention and concern in Europe, and created a lot of questions regarding whether the fundamentals of the transatlantic relationship were being questioned. Concerns about US engagement in NATO, a potential dissonant threat perception towards and relationship with China and Russia, and the tensions around trade agreements, and in general a perceived defiance of international liberal order are all issues that have ranked high on the agenda of European leaders since early 2017, and that continue to represent - among other issues - topics that require a deeper discussion at the political and the expert level.
Topic:: NATO, Engagement, Transatlantic Relations, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, Asia, and United States of America

2274. Petro Dollar. Petro Yuan. Petro Rupee?

Author:: Amit Bhandari
Publication Date:: 08-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations
Abstract:: Over the last two decades, every component of the global energy scenario has changed: demand, supply and energy-type. The only constant has been the U.S. Dollar as the currency of energy trade. Lately, the Chinese Yuan has emerged to challenge the Dollar. Can the Indian Rupee be a third player? India is now the world’s third-largest consumer and second-largest importer of energy. Its open market, transparent regulation and growing demand give it an opportunity to become the hub of a vibrant new oil market, simultaneously ensuring its energy security and raising the international profile of the Rupee. This paper explores the possibility the Rupee could be the third currency in which energy is traded, and the challenges and opportunities it presents.
Topic:: Security, Energy Policy, Markets, Oil, Currency, and Trade
Political Geography:: China, South Asia, India, Asia, North America, and United States of America

2275. China’s new policy on the European Union: A toughening line on political issues

Author:: Jyrki Kallio
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: China’s recent policy paper on the European Union shows that the country continues to recognize the EU as an important partner in many fields. A new, distressing element is that China has toughened its demands towards the EU to respect its core interests and to refrain from meddling in its internal affairs.
Topic:: Globalization, International Affairs, European Union, and Conflict
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and Asia

2276. Wild Growth: An Assessment of Erdenes Mongol

Author:: Andrew Bauer and Dorjdari Namkhaijantsan
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:: Erdenes Mongol is Mongolia's most influential state-owned mining enterprise. It was established in 2006 to represent the government of Mongolia's interests in strategic mines, manage mineral licenses and promote the mining sector. In recent years Erdenes Mongol has evolved into a complex conglomerate with interests in many sectors, including unconventional oil and gas, roads, hospitality, power generation, steel, and asset management. The company's expansion represents an implicit government choice to invest in specific sectors rather than others, such as education, healthcare or renewable energy. Erdenes Mongol does not publish financial information on most of its subsidiaries and joint ventures. However, many are unprofitable. Those that are profitable, such as the Tavan Tolgoi coal project, have yet to pay any dividends to the state treasury. The Government of Mongolia may wish to consider several reforms, such as: (1) Enacting a new state-owned enterprise or Erdenes Mongol-specific law; (2) Clarifying the company's financial and governance relationship with subsidiaries; (3) Performing project-by-project market assessments in order to determine which assets to purchase and sell; (4) Developing clear criteria and an open process for appointment and dismissal of board members and managers; and, (5) Requiring greater public disclosures and audits, especially of subsidiaries and joint ventures.
Topic:: Natural Resources, Business, Mining, and Trade
Political Geography:: Mongolia and Asia

2277. Mongolia's Missing Oil, Gas and Mining Contracts

Author:: Robert Pitman
Publication Date:: 02-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:: Many of the most important contracts for publicly owned oil, gas and minerals in Mongolia remain secret, despite government promises to make contracts public. A review of publicly available contracts in Mongolia suggests that contracts are unlikely to contain the kinds of information about a project that are commercially sensitive. Likewise, evidence suggests that there is no reason to think that confidentiality clauses prevent disclosure of contracts. Contracting regimes in Mongolia are complex and therefore in many instances, it will be necessary to publish several contracts and associated documents for each project. There are five steps that the government can take to make contracts public: 1) explain the contracting landscape, 2) define the scope of disclosure, 3) establish a contract disclosure rule, 4) make contracts accessible, and 5) support contract use.
Topic:: Civil Society, Government, Oil, Gas, Journalism, Tax Systems, Mining, Private Sector, and Contracts
Political Geography:: Mongolia and Asia

2278. How and Why the Myanmar Government Should Publish Petroleum and Mining Contracts

Author:: Sebastian Sahla, Hosana Chay, and Robert Pitman
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:: Contract disclosure is a growing global norm. The Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) board agreed to require all member governments to disclose the contracts they sign with oil, gas and mining companies beginning in January 2021. Around the world governments, companies and civil society are increasingly advocating for disclosure. In Myanmar, progress has been extremely slow. Despite civil society activists and several major investors supporting reforms, the government has not disclosed any petroleum or mining contracts so far. With new licenses expected to be issued in the petroleum, minerals and gemstone sectors, the Myanmar government should act now to keep pace with a global trend.
Topic:: Corruption, Natural Resources, Regulation, Negotiation, Legislation, Transparency, and Contracts
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Mongolia, Asia, Sierra Leone, Mexico, Myanmar, and Cameroon

2279. The Talsinki Tunnel: Channelling Chinese Interests into the Baltic Sea

Author:: Frank Jüris
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: China’s assertive foreign policy is best known for the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). In Northern Europe, China is interested in developing the Polar Silk Road which, using the Northeast Passage route, could significantly cut down the transit time between Asia and Europe and provide alternative route to the target European market. The Tallinn–Helsinki connection should be seen as part of this route, which helps explain why the Chinese investor TouchStone Capital and state-owned construction companies have shown interest in building an undersea rail tunnel between Helsinki and Tallinn (the “Talsinki tunnel”). This paper analyses Chinese strategic interests through the BRI initiative in general and the Polar Silk Road in particular. With the focus on the motives of the host countries it tries to find out, how well they resonate with Chinese interests in the region. This analysis looks at the preparations made for the implementation of the project and describes the Chinese state actors involved in it. The final, largest section analyses the security risks involved in the implementation of the tunnel project and highlights the potential security risks that need to be taken into consideration by the host countries.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Infrastructure, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Resilience
Political Geography:: China and Asia

2280. Transitional Justice in Taiwan: A Belated Reckoning with the White Terror

Author:: Thomas J. Shattuck
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: From 1949 to the end of the Cold War era, the Kuomintang (KMT)—under the leadership of Chiang Kai-shek and his son Chiang Ching-kuo—ruled the Republic of China (Taiwan) under martial law. The martial law decree gave the government immense power to quash any perceived forms of dissent in society. As a result, the KMT imprisoned, tortured, and executed thousands of people over the course of several decades. Now, President Tsai Ing-wen and the Democratic Progressive Party are investigating the atrocities committed during this era. With the establishment of the Ill-Gotten Party Assets Settlement Committee and the Transitional Justice Commission, the Tsai government hopes to bring historical truth and justice to Taiwan’s society and hold the KMT accountable for its actions during the authoritarian period. Despite good intentions, the progress has been slow due to legal delays, a controversy regarding malintent, and the population’s ambivalence. Nevertheless, Taiwan must deal with its history in order to move forward as a democracy.
Topic:: History, Authoritarianism, Transitional Justice, and Repression
Political Geography:: Taiwan and Asia

2281. The changing global order and its implications for the EU

Author:: Katja Creutz, Tuomas Iso-Markku, Teija Tilikainen, and Kristi Raik
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The forms of global political transition contradict each other. The Western leadership of the world seems to be in decline, with the US political and military hegemony being challenged by the rise of China and other emerging powers and with global power structures evolving towards multipolarity. At the same time, however, there are increasing signs of a diffusion of state power. It involves a growing group of non-state actors challenging state power in very different forms and different capacities. This report focuses on the axis of state power considered the most important in terms of its global implications: the relationship between the US and China. This relationship is studied with the aim of assessing how the mutual interdependencies are evolving, and what the goals of the two actors look like in respect of their own global role. The im¬plications of this power transition in the key fields of global governance – also covering the simultaneous diffusion of power to non-state actors – forms another relevant topic under review in the global context. Lastly, the report analyses how the EU contends with these forms of power transition and safeguards its own influence in this changing environment. The project also addresses the international role and influence of one of the northernmost EU members, Finland. It investigates how the changes in the global and regional setting should be understood from the Finnish point of view and how Finland should act in order to consolidate its international role in economic as well as political terms.
Topic:: Power Politics, Non State Actors, Hegemony, Leadership, and Liberal Order
Political Geography:: United States, China, Asia, and North America

2282. The Sinification of China: How the minorities are being merged into one nation

Author:: Jyrki Kallio
Publication Date:: 04-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The long-term aim of the Communist Party is to make China unified, and the most recent tool for this is the creation a Chinese nation. This term was included in the Constitution last year, which contradicts the definition of China as a multi-national state. Unifying China includes promoting a Chinese identity through history and culture. The current borders and ethnic composition of China are presented as the results of natural processes. History is written from the viewpoint of the Han Chinese and their relations with the border regions. Culture is discussed in a similar Han-centric manner. The Party has set “Chinese values” against “universal values” and religions. It demands religions to be Sinified in order to alleviate any risks they might pose to national unity. Most concretely, the creation of a Chinese nation is affecting the people in Xinjiang. This has given rise to concerns in other countries. The Sinification of minority nationalities may potentially become a new stumbling block in China’s relations with Western states.
Topic:: Human Rights, Nationalism, Culture, and Minorities
Political Geography:: China and Asia

2283. The Brain drain from Russia: The Kremlinʼs double-edged sword

Author:: Jussi Lassila
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The accelerated brain drain from Russia concretizes the failures of the Kremlinʼs authoritarian modernization and deepens the country’s longer-term problems. At the same time, the brain drain is reducing the regimeʼs political pressures to make the country more attractive to educated and internationally oriented citizens.
Topic:: Education, Globalization, Authoritarianism, and Modernization
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Central Asia, and Asia

2284. China’s challenge to human rights: Increased proactivity may weaken the UN human rights system

Author:: Katja Creutz
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: China has raised its stakes in human rights governance. It has systematically sought to remove human rights from the centre of the international order by launching alternative human rights concepts, blocking human rights financing at the UN, and hindering civil society involvement in human rights scrutiny. China’s approach to human rights is not only guided by past experiences of humiliation and the idea of developmentalism, but first and foremost by the desire to secure the existing political system and its leadership. The alternative design for human rights is built around consensual cooperation rather than hard legal obligations and international scrutiny. It promotes dialogue and capacity-building instead of practices such as naming and shaming. States supportive of human rights should respond to Chinese efforts in the Human Rights Council as well as within the UN more broadly. This can be done by raising awareness of the systematic attack on human rights, increasing knowledge about Chinese foreign policy objectives, and by creating practices that help to achieve common stances.
Topic:: Civil Society, Human Rights, United Nations, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: China and Asia

2285. Geostrategically motivated co-option of social media: The case of Chinese LinkedIn spy recruitment

Author:: Mika Aaltola
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Social media platforms enable a strategically motivated and harmful set of practices that leverage both their scalability and targeting potentials. The wider vulnerabilities of digitalized democracies have been much discussed in connection with election meddling and disinformation campaigning. However, the emphasis here is on the more direct vulnerability of mass spy recruitment. The ongoing LinkedIn-based mass recruitment provides a case in point, representing a dangerous vulnerability that can lead to the theft of intellectual property and confidential materials, as well as to the setting up of influence networks. An important case in point is the Chinese co-option of LinkedIn for gaining operatives in and confidential information from Western states and enterprises. Exposing the emerging adversary techniques used by resourceful state actors is the first counter-step. Moreover, preparedness needs to be highlighted, counter-measures modernized, and laws updated to address the new vulnerabilities.
Topic:: Intelligence, Science and Technology, Social Media, Covert, and Spy
Political Geography:: China and Asia

2286. US foreign policy tools in the era of disinformation: Deficiencies prevent effective response to malign information operations

Author:: Deborah A. McCarthy
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Russia, China, Iran and ISIS use information operations to undermine the national security objectives of the United States and its allies. However, the US’s international response has been weak. Internal constraints have limited more effective counter-measures. In particular, the lack of a coordinated White House-level strategy, dispersed authorities and little cooperation with private social media companies can be identified as causal factors. Additional steps by the Trump Administration to counter foreign disinformation will aim to protect the 2020 presidential elections rather than to push back on efforts to undermine US leadership abroad.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Science and Technology, ISIS, Social Media, and Disinformation
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, China, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Asia, and North America

2287. Turkey’s invasion of Syria was predictable: A violent prelude to making a major deal to end the Syrian war

Author:: Toni Alaranta
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The increasing violence and new balance of relative power between key players may in fact signal a prelude to a major deal, ending the conflict that quickly escalated to the regional level.
Topic:: Power Politics, Violence, Regionalism, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Asia, and Syria

2288. Russia and China in the Middle East: Playing their best cards

Author:: Marco Siddi and Marcin Kaczmarski
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Russia and China share a number of interests in the Middle East: limiting US power and maintaining good relations with all players in the region while remaining aloof from the key conflicts, especially between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and Iran and Israel. Russia’s position has been based on political support for particular states, arms sales and the provision of civilian nuclear energy technology. Moscow has boosted its role by intervening militarily in the Syrian civil war. China has been strengthening its political position in the region for the last decade and its presence is more substantial from a financial-economic perspective. The current Chinese and Russian regional posture further marginalises the influence of the EU in MENA. In the Middle East, the EU is already a weaker economic actor than China and a weaker military player than Russia. However, the EU can cooperate with Russia and China on upholding the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on Iran’s nuclear programme.
Topic:: Energy Policy, International Cooperation, Nuclear Power, Military Intervention, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, Middle East, and Asia

2289. Turkey’s Republican People’s Party and the EU: Preconditions for EU-Turkey relations in the secular-nationalist vision

Author:: Toni Alaranta
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: After 17 years of the Islamic-conservative AKP’s electoral hegemony, the secular-nationalist Republican People’s Party (CHP) achieved significant success in the recent municipal elections on March 2019, and is now increasingly challenging President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The secular-nationalist political discourse has traditionally advanced the idea of making Turkey a modern nation-state closely attached to the West, yet the West is also seen as a potential threat. The CHP identifies itself as a social-democratic party, and is now trying to build a wide pro-democratic platform based on a social market economy and fundamental rights. The party’s strong secularist and Turkish nationalist core has made it difficult for the CHP to gain support among the Kurds and religious conservatives, and this remains challenging. Strong nationalism and suspicion about the West are deeply ingrained in Turkey’s political culture. On the other hand, in order to be inherently coherent, the secular-nationalist vision requires an ideological attachment to the Western world. Stemming from these premises, under the CHP’s government, Turkey’s foreign policy would likely prioritize good relations with the West, and re-invigorate the country’s EU prospect.
Topic:: Nationalism, Hegemony, Elections, and Local
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Asia

2290. The Arctic Council and US domestic policymaking

Author:: Elana Wilson Rowe and Helge Blakkisrud
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: One widely recognized achievement of the Arctic Council and its various working groups has been the production of collectively generated assessments on Arctic problems. Assessment reports such as the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) provide an important baseline of shared knowledge for making collective circumpolar policy recommendations. But how does the knowledge produced through Arctic Council working groups figure into the policymaking of the Arctic states? This is an important question for understanding Arctic politics and the relationship between national decisionmaking and international relations more generally. Much of what the Arctic Council produces is in the form of recommendations, declarations of intent, and commitments to "best practices" in areas of shared interest and activity. While in recent years the Council has produced three binding agreements covering specific functional areas—search and rescue (2011), oil pollution preparedness and response (2013),and science cooperation (2017)—much ongoing Arctic collaborative work falls outside of these areas. This policy brief explores how science/policy outputs of and discussions at the Arctic Council fit into the Arctic political discourse of the USA, with an emphasis on key actors within the executive branch: the White House, the Department of the Interior, and the Environmental Protection Agency.
Topic:: Climate Change, Diplomacy, Energy Policy, Domestic Policy, and Arctic Council
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Eurasia, Asia, North America, Arctic, and United States of America

2291. China’s Export Success: Due to Unfair Practices or Fair Competition?

Author:: Rolf Langhammer
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Compared with previous ratings, China’s trade policy today is more positively acknowledged. Yet, China can still be criticised in particular because of its non-transparent subsidy policy, the privileged role of state-owned enterprises, the heavy hand of the state in general, the sluggish enforcement of intellectual property rights, and the prevalence of non-tariff barriers. Yet, it cannot be ignored that Chinese entrepreneurship mentality is highly developed outside state interference in world markets. Especially, in the digital economy, high motivation and a large pool of human skills act as drivers of innovations, so far mainly process innovations. The trade war with the US hurts China and is responded by China with asymmetrical retaliation. The more Chinese exports to the US in total are affected, the more costs will have to be borne by US consumers as options to shift to alternative suppliers become weaker. What President Trump would see as a “good” deal for the US is unclear. It can be thus presumed that the trade war will continue into 2020 and that it is in fact a tech war. The EU is affected as EU companies produce in China for the US market and in the US for the Chinese market. While it might gain from trade diversion effects in the short run, the negative effects on investment due to uncertainty weigh more heavily. The EU is tempted to negotiate a free trade agreement with China but rightly refuses to start negotiations before China is prepared to conclude an agreement on investment. The EU should not see China and the US on equidistance. Workable relations with the US are much more important. To conclude, China’s trade policy has improved relative to Western standards but still warrants further steps towards much less state influence. Yet, its global competiveness especially in the state-of-the-art digital economy is high and is owed to a strong entrepreneurial mentality.
Topic:: Economics, European Union, Asia, Exports, Trade, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, and United States of America

2292. State-owned Enterprises and the Trade Wars

Author:: Przemysław Kowalski
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Do state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and state capitalism create unfair competition in international markets? Empirical evidence surveyed in this brief suggests that from the turn of the century, state-owned enterprises (SOEs) indeed started competing increasingly with private firms, trading across borders and establishing themselves abroad through foreign direct investment. Some SOEs benefited from government-granted advantages unavailable to their private peers. International legal disputes involving SOEs have multiplied, and discussions of new trade and investment policy initiatives aiming to discipline SOEs have emerged. However, opinions differ as to what are the best policy approaches. The OECD Guidelines on SOEs would go a long way towards maintaining an international level playing field, but these are not mandatory and therefore unevenly implemented. WTO law gives countries freedom in managing their SOEs and focuses instead on disciplining government actions which may distort competition in international markets, irrespective of their ownership status. Some recent preferential trading agreements (PTAs) have included new SOE-specific disciplines that may influence future policy developments. On-going concerns about the allegedly unfair trade practices in emerging market economies with large state sectors, most notably China, are likely to strengthen the pressure for a closer scrutiny of SOEs and a development of new national and international disciplines. Improved transparency and disclosure are likely to be a common denominator of these new initiatives.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, and Trade
Political Geography:: Asia

2293. OECD/INFE Report on Financial Education in APEC Economies

Author:: The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:: At their 23rd Ministerial Meeting in Lima in 2016, APEC Finance Ministers called for a report on financial education in APEC to support “the design and implementation of financial literacy policies building on the expertise and standards developed by the OECD International Network on Financial Education.”1 This report, covering the 21 APEC economies spanning the Asia and the Pacific region, responds to that call.2 The findings illustrate that the majority of APEC economies are well-advanced in their efforts to collect relevant data, implement appropriate financial education policies, and address the remaining issues related to financial literacy, inclusion and consumer protection. They are applying international best practices and making good use of available tools and resources to develop and refine strategic approaches and specific initiatives. However, there is still some way to go in ensuring that everyone living in an APEC economy has the financial literacy that they need and concerns about financial fraud or abuse, the high complexity of financial services and the low financial literacy of specific population groups are driving policy interest in improving financial education. Section I reports that APEC economies accounted for almost 60% of the world’s GDP in 2017 and notes that impressive progress has been made in closing financial inclusion gaps in the entire region, including through digital financial services. However, it also indicates several challenges and factors of relevance to the development of financial education activities in APEC economies. These include important, persistent issues of inequality, rapid population ageing, and low financial literacy in several APEC economies. Section II discusses strong political recognition and support for financial literacy and inclusion in APEC economies; major co-ordinated policy efforts such as national strategies for financial education and financial consumer protection frameworks; and other financial education initiatives and efforts, including those seeking to introduce financial education in schools. All of the APEC economies with available data either have a national strategy for financial education already in place or are in the process of designing and planning one. Most national strategies aim at awareness of financial issues and strengthening the financial literacy of their citizens, while at the same time supporting financial consumer protection and financial inclusion policies and objectives. In addition, out of the 17 APEC economies participating in the survey for this study, 15 have firmly introduced financial education in their school curriculums (at different levels) to date.
Topic:: Education, National Security, Fiscal Policy, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:: Asia and Asia-Pacific

2294. Syria’s Return to the Arab Fold

Author:: Joshua Krasna
Publication Date:: 02-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Arab countries are re-normalizing their relations with the Assad regime, seeking to balance the strong Iranian and Turkish influences in Syria and to achieve some degree of influence in a new Syrian political-strategic structure. This further cements a Russian-oriented strategic architecture in the region. In the long term, this could lead to tensions between conservative Arab states and Israel, if Israel targets the Syrian military and government in the campaign against Iran, or if Israel continues to promote diplomatic recognition of its Golan annexation.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Governance, Normalization, and Annexation
Political Geography:: Europe, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Asia, and Syria

2295. Erdoğan is Not Invulnerable

Publication Date:: 07-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The US, Europe and Israel can force a modification in Erdoğan’s conduct on a wide range of issues, including his duplicity on Iran, support for Hamas in Gaza, subversion in Jerusalem, intervention in Libya, aggression towards Cypriot gas explorations, threats to Kurds of Rojava, and repression at home.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Hegemony, Authoritarianism, Leadership, and Regional Power
Political Geography:: Europe, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Asia

2296. A Stronger Mediterranean Partnership: Why More Than Gas is at Stake

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 08-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Israel, Egypt, Greece and Cyprus must encourage the US to assert a higher military and diplomatic profile as a counterweight to Turkish pressures, Russian and Iranian ambitions, and Chinese inroads.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Energy Policy, Military Strategy, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Greece, Asia, North America, Egypt, Cyprus, and United States of America

2297. Israel Would Welcome Ties With Pakistan. Should India Worry?

Author:: Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The recurrent debate about Israel in Pakistan reflects the former’s improved international standing. The Muslim giant could become the next success in Israel’s growing acceptance around the world
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Conflict, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Middle East, India, Israel, and Asia

2298. Pakistan and Israel: Much Ado About Nothing?

Author:: Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Both Pakistani and Israeli concerns currently militate against any imminent warming of ties.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Middle East, Israel, and Asia

2299. Can a Chinese-Iranian Deal be Averted?

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Chinese investment in Iran would help Tehran withstand US economic pressures, and exacerbate the Western crisis with Iran
Topic:: International Cooperation, Investment, Economic Diplomacy, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:: China, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Asia, North America, and United States of America

2300. Beyond Outrage

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: What Can and Should Be Done to Limit the Scope of the Turkish Assault on Rojava?
Topic:: War, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Asia, and Kurdistan

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS