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3052. Turkey’s Parliament
- Author:
- Alan Makovsky
- Publication Date:
- 12-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for American Progress - CAP
- Abstract:
- The combination of post-coup emergency rule and the phasing in of the new presidential system has reinforced President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s role as the virtually unassailable ruler of Turkey. Emergency rule has now been extended five times since the attempted coup in July 2016, with no end in sight. But even without emergency rule, the new presidential system affirmed in the April 16 referendum promises the hollowing out of institutions that once, for better or worse, were fairly autonomous. The judiciary is now little more than an arm of the Justice and Development Party, better known as AKP, government; its key positions are appointed by Erdoğan—who is AKP leader as well as president of the nation—and by the AKP-dominated Parliament. The military, too, is now mostly under the thumb of the government—unlike the judiciary, appropriately so, if not politicized. Following the next election, the prime ministry will be abolished. The president will stand alone atop the executive branch, his power of appointment unreviewable. The reach of the executive branch itself will be significantly broadened, including increased authority even over civil society.1 Many observers expect that Erdoğan’s position will remain unchallenged and that the AKP will hold onto power for many years to come. But AKP dominance of Turkish governance actually could be limited or removed entirely in elections that must be held by November 3, 2019—assuming those elections are conducted fairly.2 The winning presidential candidate must win with a majority of votes cast, at least by the second round. This requirement is enshrined in the constitution; unlike the rules on parliamentary elections, it is not changeable without a constitutional amendment. And, although the polarizing Erdoğan is far ahead of other potential candidates in popularity thus far,3 it is by no means clear that he would win a majority of votes in a fairly conducted, head-to-head second round.4 As for Parliament, the AKP has won a sizable majority of seats in 4 of the 5 elections it has contested since its founding—winning a clear plurality of seats in the other election. The AKP has also captured more than 49 percent of the popular vote in 2 of the last 3 elections.5 Yet, the next election will be Turkey’s first in which voters cast separate, simultaneous votes for president and Parliament. It is difficult to predict how that may affect voter preferences. Significantly, the result of the parliamentary vote could still affect how Turkey is governed. As suffocating as presidential power is likely to be under the new system, there may nevertheless be some breathing room for a meaningful Parliament, and some measure of parliamentary checks and balances on the presidency, depending on the preferences of the Turkish voter. The following briefly details the duties and responsibilities of Parliament under the new system.
- Topic:
- Authoritarianism, Democracy, Leadership, Legislation, Parliamentarism, and Power
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, and Asia
3053. Is Turkey Experiencing a New Nationalism?
- Author:
- John Halpin, Michael Werz, Alan Makovsky, and Max Hoffman
- Publication Date:
- 02-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for American Progress - CAP
- Abstract:
- A new CAP study finds broad consensus among Turks about the dimensions of Turkish national identity and the nation's relationship to the rest of the world.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Nationalism, Social Order, and Identity
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, and Asia
3054. Does Unplanned Urbanization Pose a Disease Risk in Asia? The Case of Avian Influenza in Vietnam
- Author:
- Sumeet Saksena
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Cities are expanding very rapidly in Asia, often without adequate housing, transportation, water, or sanitation. ese new “peri-urban” areas may be hot spots for disease, both in humans and domestic animals. Research into the possible link between unplanned urban expansion and disease outbreaks compared patterns of land-use change with two major outbreaks in Vietnam of highly pathogenic avian in uenza (HPAI, subtype H5N1) that killed millions of chickens between 2003 and 2005. Work began by classifying communes into land-use categories: rural, peri-urban, urban, and urban core. e study found that peri-urban communes had at least a 150 percent higher risk of experiencing an H5N1 outbreak than did other types of commune, and that urbanization entails a spatial convergence of several key risk factors for H5N1 transmission. By focusing prevention programs on communes with these factors, the Vietnamese government can potentially improve disease prevention at lower cost. is research may also help explain the epidemi- ology of other infectious diseases, both in humans and livestock.
- Topic:
- Health, Urbanization, and International Development
- Political Geography:
- Asia
3055. Shift of Power from West to East and Rise of China
- Author:
- Mushtaq Ahmed Abbasi, Ghulam Qumber, and Ahmed Saeed Minhas
- Publication Date:
- 07-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Political Studies
- Institution:
- Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
- Abstract:
- This research paper is aimed at evaluating prevailing global scenario and the dynamics of shift of power from the West to the East. Efforts have been made to analyze the economic, political, and security trends to understand important aspects of the power transition process. Currently, there is an enough literature available, which proves the existing consensus among many experts that China is playing a central role in the process of shift of power from the West to the East. Therefore, while explaining this transition process, it is pertinent to focus on the leading role of China and its possible implications. So, this study further highlights the rising power of China covering an overall picture of China, particularly its economic development process, the political and cultural aspects, and the military modernization. Efforts have been made to give an analytical view that how the rise in economic power is gradually transforming itself into political, diplomatic, and military strength of China. Besides; this research effort also focuses on how China is adjusting its foreign policy posture in the regional and global affairs, which culminates or aims at adjusting itself to globalization process.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and Power Politics
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
3056. China’s Role and the Potential of Pak-China Cooperation in Regional Organizations
- Author:
- Manzoor Khan Afridi and Mansoor Akbar Kundi
- Publication Date:
- 07-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Political Studies
- Institution:
- Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
- Abstract:
- The paper attempts to analyze China’s role in various regional organizations and potential cooperation between China and Pakistan within these forums. SAARC, SCO, OIC, Heart of Asia-Istanbul Peace Process, APEC, CICA and Boao Forum have been selected here for analysis. Pakistan is one of the founding members of SAARC and China has an observer status. Pakistan supports Chinese membership in SAARC to reduce Indian role and hegemony. China wants to have easy access to Indian Ocean, Middle East and influence in South Asia, for which India is the biggest hurdle. In SCO, China is the founding member while Pakistan joined it as observer in 2005 and as a member in 2015. Combating terrorism, extremism and separatism and to enhance the trade opportunities, stability in neighborhood and energy security are the common objectives of the two states in SCO. Pakistan, being a founding member in OIC, has always played an active and dynamic role for the cause of Muslims. Pakistan wants China to have greater role in OIC where the later showed interest for observer status in 2012. Chinese interest in Muslim states, particularly in Middle East and Central Asia, is triggered by the energy hunt and growing posture of these regions in contemporary world politics. Pakistan can play a bridge role, not only geographically, but also ideologically and culturally, to bring these states closer to China. China and Pakistan are increasing their cooperation in the Heart of AsiaIstanbul Process on Afghanistan, APEC, CICA and Boao Forum for Asia, as well. The paper concludes that both states share similar views on all bilateral and multilateral issues, support each other’s position, and enhancing their cooperation in regional organizations and multilateral forums.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Regional Cooperation, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, China, South Asia, and Asia
3057. Taiwan’s Export Control System: Overview and Recommendations
- Author:
- James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
- Publication Date:
- 08-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
- Abstract:
- This report provides an overview and assessment of Taiwan’s export control program, with a focus on strategic high-tech commodities (SHTC). It highlights Taiwan’s global position as a major port for both shipping and dual-use exports, identifying the key legislation and organizations that address SHTC exports. It thoroughly examines the key organizations, legislation, licensing procedures, and challenges within Taiwan’s export control system. Overall, Taiwan has a strong, modern export control system, and any deficiencies are similar to other jurisdictions of the same size in terms of trade and shipping. Nonetheless, Taiwan’s isolation in the international community continues to make it a target for illicit trade, including financing of items related to weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Using open-source data, this report identifies twenty-five export-control cases involving Taiwanese persons and/or entities. All of these cases were prosecuted in Taiwan or abroad. In an attempt to identify unprosecuted cases, researchers incorporated publicly available data, including the Panama Papers. The report finds no evidence of unprosecuted illicit WMD-related trade. Despite its international isolation, Taiwan has an opportunity to become a leader in safe international trade. By fully embracing export control and proliferation finance laws and enforcement, Taiwan could become a natural hub for export controls
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Illegal Trade
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, and Asia
3058. Countering North Korean Procurement Networks Through Financial Measures: The Role of Southeast Asia
- Author:
- Eda Erol and Leonard Spector
- Publication Date:
- 12-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
- Abstract:
- This Occasional Paper is made up of four studies intended to aid Southeast Asian governments and financial institutions in their efforts to counter the financing of weapon of mass destruction programs in North Korea and other states of concern. “Countering North Korean Procurement Networks through Financial Measures: The Role of Southeast Asia,” highlights how North Korea has exploited weak financial controls in the region to advance its nuclear and missile programs. The study reviews Security Council and Financial Action Task Force actions to combat such abuse of the international banking system, as well as the role of US sanctions. Effective implementation of these measures in Southeast Asia, the study concludes, could contribute significantly to constraining North Korea and other proliferant states. “Needed Next Steps to Strengthen Measures to Counter Proliferation Finance,” identifies gaps in international measures to combat proliferation finance, and calls on the Security Council and the Financial Action Task Force to clarify standards for national-level implementation of counter-proliferation-finance rules and to adopt improved enforcement mechanisms. The analysis urges Southeast Asian governments and financial institutions to implement existing measures with greater vigor. “Chinpo Shipping: A Singaporean Financial Agent of North Korea” details how North Korea created an off-shore de facto bank to finance its illegal activities and how Singapore’s courts addressed the first known prosecution for financing proliferation. The case underscores that greater due diligence by banks and regulatory authorities is urgently needed. Finally, “Due Diligence and the Panama Papers Episode: Lessons for Proliferation Finance,” shows how a North Korean bank, denied access to the international banking system, set up an off-shore entity to transact its business. The analysis calls for greatly strengthened enforcement efforts by offshore tax havens, closer scrutiny of clients by banks and law firms conducting international business, and greater efforts by Southeast Asian governments to block sanctions-violating front companies from accessing their banking systems.
- Topic:
- Law Enforcement, Illegal Trade, Procurement, and Banking
- Political Geography:
- Asia and North Korea
3059. From Eastward Pivot to Greater Eurasia
- Author:
- S. Karaganov
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
- Institution:
- East View Information Services
- Abstract:
- The current stage of russia’s pivot to the east is the product of the second half of the 2000s largely as a belated economic response to the rise of asia, which opened new opportunities for the country’s devel- opment, especially for it eastern part. That rise made it possible to turn the ural region and the russian Far east from a mainly imperial burden – or a logistics base in confrontation with the West, sometimes a front line in rivalry with Japan or china – into a potential territory of develop- ment for the entire country. The expediency of making the pivot was substantiated by the fore- casted imminent economic slowdown of its main traditional partner, europe, and the deterioration of relations with europe and the West as a whole. The need for the diversification of economic ties and outside sources of development was becoming increasingly obvious. These assessments were backed up by a number of pronounced trends in the recent decade. First, these are the disintegration and crisis of the global order that the West has been trying to impose on the world since what it saw as its final victory. second is the process of relative de- globalization and the regionalization of the global economy and politics. and the third is the accelerating trend – related to the previous one – toward the politicization of economic ties, which made interdependence and dependence on one market comparatively less beneficial, if not sim- ply dangerous. Finally, the “asia for asia” trend prevailed over the “asia for the world” trend. Development in asia, especially in china, began to be increasingly oriented toward domestic and regional markets. Meanwhile, the process of spiritual and ideological emancipation of the formerly great asian civilizations, which in the past two centuries had been in colonial or semi-colonial dependence on the West, began to gain momen- tum. asian countries gained access to many achievements of the West, took advantage of the liberal global economic order that it created, became stronger, and began to claim a more appropriate place for them- selves on the world’s ideological and strategic map. The inevitability of the u.s. moving away (at least temporarily) from the role of a global hegemon, which came with a hefty price tag, became evident. Barack Obama set a course for domestic revival. however, old elites and inertia did not allow him to abandon costly and ineffective interventionism. Donald Trump strengthened the “self-isolation” trend. The u.s. has turned into a dangerous amalgam of residual intervention- ism and semi-isolationism. It is becoming increasingly evident that the u.s. seeks to create its own center, casting off some of its disadvanta- geous global commitments. a trend has evolved toward the formation of a hypothetically bipolar world through a multi-polar world with its inevitable chaos. One of its poles is based around the u.s. and the other is in eurasia. china seems to be its economic center, but the eurasian center will only materialize if Beijing does not claim the role of hegemon. however, whatever the case may be, it has turned out that once it has finally made a pivot to the east, russia has discovered many unexpected opportunities for itself.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Development, Hegemony, Empire, and Economic Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Asia
3060. Russia’s Position on Territorial Conflicts in East Asia
- Author:
- Dmitry Streltsov
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
- Institution:
- East View Information Services
- Abstract:
- ruSSiA’S poSition on territorial and border conflicts in east Asia arouses great interest. Most of these conflicts have deep roots in and are consequences of the cold War, primarily stemming from legal gaps in the system of interstate borders that is based on the San Francisco peace treaty. these conflicts include disputes over the South Kuril islands (“northern territories”), the Senkaku (Diaoyu) islands, and the tokto (takeshima) islands. in addition, there are numerous conflicts in the South china Sea (disputes over territories including the paracel and Spratly islands) that have more complicated histories and go further back into the past, including the colonial era. russia is involved in only one of east Asia’s territorial disputes, one with Japan, and is just an observer in the rest of them. russia’s line on those conflicts is very important from the point of view of its political and economic interests, which are determined by its trade and investment relations with the countries that are parties to those disputes. Many of the most acute conflicts are sovereignty disputes over islands and sea borders. essentially, they are disputes over economic con- trol of vast water areas in the east china Sea and South china Sea, which are rich in mineral and biological resources and are part of key interna- tional maritime communication lines. For russia, however, those com- munications are not as important as they are, for example, for Japan or South Korea, or even for china. russia is more reliant on the transit facilities of its eastern ports. the latter are used in shipping along the northern Sea route and in trans- portation to and from china more than they are in handling cargo transportation between east Asia and europe along the southern route passing through the Strait of Malacca. it was no accident that russia focused on that southern route in setting the agenda for the Asia- pacific economic cooperation (Apec) summit in vladivostok in 2012. As an outside observer in east Asian territorial conflicts with none of its geographical or economic interests affected by them, russia takes a more neutral position on them than countries to which such conflicts pose a direct threat of armed confrontation. the russian position is also determined by the economic develop- ment priorities of Siberia and the russian Far east as set by its “eastward turn” doctrine. Strategically speaking, russia needs good and stable eco- nomic, and hence political, relations with all key countries involved in east Asian processes of integration, processes that encompass all east Asian countries except north Korea. however, practically all east Asian countries with which russia is determined to maintain trade and investment partnership, including china, Japan, South Korea, and key Southeast Asian states such as vietnam, are embroiled in territorial or border conflicts. obviously, by siding with one of the parties to any of these conflicts, russia would jeop- ardize its relations with the other. russia cannot afford to make friends with one country by estranging another. it needs, showing the utmost discretion and delicacy, to achieve a subtle balance in its relations with various actors and to seek at least a fragile regional status quo. neither can russia ignore the fact that, by joining ad hoc blocs or coalitions formed to deal with territorial conflicts, it would risk being drawn into a conflict that might grow into war any moment.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Territorial Disputes, Military Affairs, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Asia
3061. Journal of Advanced Military Studies: Lessons Learned
- Author:
- Nathan Packard, Joseph A. Lore, Jonathan Wong, James E. Fanell, and Kerry K. Gershaneck
- Publication Date:
- 09-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Advanced Military Studies
- Institution:
- Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
- Abstract:
- U.S. government agencies and military Service branches produce numerous reports and briefs each year that fall in the category of lessons learned. These institutional reports, and the effort that goes into them, play an important role for groups who are responsible for many lives and the nation’s resources. Some of these documents come after extensive investigations related to accidents, such as the loss of the space shuttle Columbia in 2003, or as a part of regular operations, such as after action reports. Moreover, all of the Services set up divisions dedicated to collecting lessons learned reports for internal and external inquiries, including the Army with its Center for Army Lessons Learned, the Navy’s Lessons Learned Information System, whose title mirrors the Joint Lessons Learned Information System, and the Air Force Lessons Learned Program. The United States Marine Corps is, as always, aligned with its sister Services in its efforts to write, publish, and disseminate doctrinal publications. At Marine Corps Base Quantico, Virginia, home of Marine Corps University (MCU), the Corps supports several divisions that house lessons learned. The Marine Corps Center for Lessons Learned (MCCLL) produces a variety of documents to support training and planning for Marine Corps exercises and operations, but also for the warfighting capability development process. Their Marine Corps Campaign of Learning Information System keeps these documents secured and available for those with suitable credentials. The History Division’s Archives Branch, located in the Brigadier General Edwin H. Simmons Marine Corps History Center, is designated by Records, Reports, Directives, and Forms Management (ARDB) to collect, hold, and transfer command chronologies filed by units semiannually (monthly when deployed), which in turn are reported to the Commandant of the Marine Corps and become permanent records of the United States. Command chronologies stand as the official record of a unit and its activities for the reporting period and are used by Headquarters Marine Corps, the Department of Defense, the Department of Veterans Affairs, Congress, and other governmental and nongovernmental entities to understand the activities, procedures, processes, and lessons learned by units. The Archives Branch holds all submitted unit command chronologies from 1976 to the present. In addition, it maintains after action reports, special action reports, and reports on lessons learned for units deployed during World War I, World War II, and the wars in Korea and Vietnam. Archives also maintains reports on major Marine Corps amphibious exercises from 1921 to 1980, major developments in amphibious doctrine between 1935 and 1990, and the development of amphibious technology from 1930 to 2000, many of which contain insight into lessons learned from those activities. These resources, once deposited with the Archives Branch, are useful to commanders and historians, and despite difficulties obtaining high-quality documents, History Division staff encourage Marines to write and deposit command chronologies regularly. Mention the term lessons learned to any Marine, soldier, sailor, or airman, and they will joke about lessons captured, observed, unlearned, or the so-called black box where these reports disappear. There may be some validity to their criticism, yet all of the Services continue to record lessons learned with good reason. Without a record of facts, it is impossible to reflect on how to improve operations from the tactical to the logistical. For this issue of the MCU Journal, the editors—with the guidance of the editorial board and numerous peer reviewers—have assembled different interpretations of lessons learned. Indeed, the authors of these four articles address diverse topics in the pursuit of increasing military readiness and effectiveness. Dr. Nathan Packard looks to the Corps’ relations with Congress, identifying how the Marine Corps, more so than other Services, has gained a reputation with and sometimes the criticism of members of Congress. Colonel Joseph A. Lore, however, sees room for improvement in supporting military efforts by revising a staple in any Marine officer’s library—the Small Wars Manual. Dr. Jonathan Wong extends Packard’s civilian-military relations theme, recommending that the Department of Defense learn from its experiences in Afghanistan and Iraq by adopting some of the rapid acquisition techniques used during Operation Enduring Freedom and Operation Iraqi Freedom to guarantee the future warfighter’s ability to engage in the next generation of war, which will undoubtedly strain the nation’s resources as the fight against terrorism and insurgencies continues.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Government, Armed Forces, Military Affairs, Occupation, History, and Vietnam War
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Iraq, Asia, Vietnam, and United States of America
3062. Journal of Advanced Military Studies: Rebalance to Asia
- Author:
- Michael J. Colarusso., Eric Y. Shibuya, Douglas Stuart, Christopher D. Yung, Rebecca Jensen, Keil Gentry, and T. X. Hammes
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Advanced Military Studies
- Institution:
- Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
- Abstract:
- The increasing importance of the Asia-Pacific—economically, politically, and militarily—was one reason that the editors of MCU Journal decided to dedicate the spring issue to that region. An early foreign policy decision by the administration of President Barack H. Obama had been to refocus its efforts on the region through what eventually became known as the Rebalance to Asia, and that region has been in the purview of the new administration as well. The Asia-Pacific is a complex region with a diverse set of political and security challenges. The vastness of the region also poses some unique operational challenges. These challenges and the strong likelihood that students of the U.S. Marine Corps Command and Staff College (CSC) would be returning to this area of responsibility in some future assignment were but two of the reasons why the organizers of the CSC capstone exercise, Nine Innings, chose the region as the subject of the scenarios of the exercise. Eric Shibuya and Lieutenant Colonel Micheal Russ, in “Anticipating and Understanding the Rebalance,” describe the origins of Nine Innings, provide the intent on what the exercise is meant to accomplish, and describe how the exercise organizers meet that intent. Noteworthy is the fact that the exercise involves extensive support from the U.S. Pacific Command (USPACOM), both in terms of the USPACOM staff helping to shape the exercise plan and USPACOM personnel participating as advisors in the exercise; that it involves extensive interaction between the students and Asia-Pacific subject-matter experts, and student representatives of Asian countries; and that the final product of the exercise is presented to a senior principal at USPACOM.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Armed Forces, Military Affairs, and Robotics
- Political Geography:
- Asia and United States of America
3063. Between Pyongyang and Tehran: The Need for Urgent Action against Iran
- Author:
- Eran Lerman
- Publication Date:
- 10-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The Iranian situation is both more urgent and more malleable than the almost hopeless situation with North Korea.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- China, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Asia, North Korea, North America, and United States of America
3064. Erdogan’s Israel Obsession
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 12-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- While Israel cannot let Turkish President Erdogan’s attacks slide, its response must differentiate between Turkish society and its popular but problematic leader.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Authoritarianism, and Leadership
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Asia
3065. Global Peaceful Change and Accommodation of Rising Powers: A Scholarly Perspective
- Author:
- T.V. Paul
- Publication Date:
- 07-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
- Institution:
- Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
- Abstract:
- Can the accommodation of rising powers in the international system be accomplished peacefully? Prof. Paul, in his recent publication, argued that if the established and status quo powers hold grand strategies which allow for peaceful accommodation, this is feasible. He clarifies the differences between accommodation and appeasement and the value of soft balancing, relying on institutions, economic diplomacy, and limited ententes as mechanisms for restraining the aggressive behavior of major powers. Variations in current US policies toward Russia and China are discussed. Non-accommodation of major powers as well as minor powers has major internal and external consequences. He concludes by arguing that contemporary rising powers, such as China and India, have much greater prospects of rising peacefully than previous era great powers, partially due to the opportunities offered by the globalization process. However, these states must initiate economic and developmental programs for other states, without neocolonial overtones, in order to increase global development and their own status. The discipline of IR has a special duty to encourage students and policy makers to develop strategies of peaceful transformation, rather than war, as the main mechanism of change.
- Topic:
- Globalization, Grand Strategy, Emerging Powers, and International System
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, South Asia, India, Asia, and United States of America
3066. Transcending Hegemonic International Relations Theorization: Nothingness, Re-Worlding, and Balance of Relationship
- Author:
- Chih-yu Shih
- Publication Date:
- 07-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
- Institution:
- Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
- Abstract:
- The manuscript compares the World History Standpoint promoted by the Kyoto School of Philosophy with two other competitors – post-Western re- worlding and the Chinese balance of relationships - in their shared campaign for alternative international relations theory. The World History Standpoint explains how nations influenced by major power politics judge their conditions and rely on combining existing cultural resources to make sense of their place in world politics. It predicts that international systemic stability cannot be maintained over a set of congruent identities because history’s longevity allows for previous politically incorrect identities to return in due time with proper clues. It specifically predicts that nations caught between different identities will experience cycles in their international relations; nations with an expansive scope of international relations or declining from the hegemonic status will adopt balance of relationships; and less influential nations will practically reinterpret hegemonic order to meet their otherwise inexpressible motivations. Accordingly, Japan will be focused upon as an exemplary case for World History Standpoint; Taiwan for re-worlding; and China for balance of relationships. The paper touches upon theoretical implications of their conflicts.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Politics, Philosophy, and International System
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Taiwan, and Asia
3067. The Run-up to Xi Jinping’s State Visit
- Author:
- Bonnie S. Glaser and Jacqueline Vitello
- Publication Date:
- 09-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Comparative Connections
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- Preparations for Chinese President Xi Jinping’s state visit to the US in September were the primary focus of the US-China relationship from May to August. The seventh Strategic and Economic Dialogue (S&ED) was held in June in an effort to tee up agreements for the summit. Friction increased on a range of issues, including China’s artificial island building in the South China Sea, Chinese cyber hacking against US companies and the US government, and repressive laws and actions undertaken by the Chinese government, some of which are likely to have negative repercussions for future US-China people-to-people exchanges. National Security Adviser Susan Rice traveled to China at the end of August to finalize deliverables for the summit amid reports of a possible Obama administration decision to impose sanctions on China for cyber-enabled theft of US intellectual property before Xi’s arrival.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Governance, and Leadership
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
3068. Courting Partners
- Author:
- Sheldon Simon
- Publication Date:
- 09-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Comparative Connections
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- Senior State and Defense Department officials made several visits to Southeast Asia over the summer months, assuring their hosts that the US remained committed to a robust air and naval presence in the region, and assisting the littoral countries of the South China Sea in developing maritime security capacity. Washington is particularly focused on providing a rotational military force presence in Southeast Asia. On the South China Sea territorial disputes, US officials emphasized the need for peaceful approaches to conflict settlement among the claimants, pointing to arbitration and negotiation based on the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. Washington has also accentuated the importance of security partners for burden-sharing, noting the potential for an enhanced role for Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Force in South China Sea patrols. Efforts to involve Southeast Asian states in negotiating the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) have elicited candidates from only four of the 10 ASEAN states – Malaysia, Vietnam, Singapore, and Brunei. Others have problems meeting several requirements associated with the partnership.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, and Military Strategy
- Political Geography:
- Asia, North America, and United States of America
3069. US Asia Policy, Symbolically Speaking
- Author:
- Ralph A. Cossa and Brad Glosserman
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Comparative Connections
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- Once every four years, our Regional Overview attempts to reassure our readers that, despite a new US administration and/or new secretary of state, US Asia policy will remain generally consistent. This year we are trying to reassure ourselves. It is, of course, premature to be making firm pronouncements about an incoming administration’s policies, but by now signals are usually becoming pretty clear. It seemed safe to assume (as we did at the time), that the incoming Obama administration would pursue the same general policies and national security objectives in the Asia-Pacific as its predecessor: support for existing alliances as the foundation of regional security policy, constructive engagement with China, support for free trade and promotion of human rights, and a strong deterrence posture regarding North Korea, combined with firm support for nonproliferation regimes. This could yet be the case for the incoming Trump administration, but the signals are, at best, mixed, in part because we find ourselves responding to tweets – which transition team spokesmen caution should be taken “symbolically” not literally – rather than clear policy pronouncements. As a result, regional leaders, while hoping for the best (or at least more of the same) seem to be preparing themselves for a variety of outcomes, even as some try to shape the future environment.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Leadership, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Asia, North America, and United States of America
3070. US-Japan Relations and the Trump Effect
- Author:
- Sheila A. Smith and Charles McClean
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Comparative Connections
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- The US presidential election was the primary influence affecting US-Japan relations in the fall of 2016. Japan was brought into the spotlight during the campaign with Trump repeatedly criticizing Tokyo for unfair trade practices and free riding in the alliance. The outcome of the election left many Japanese worried about the future of the alliance. Prime Minister Abe quickly reached out to President-elect Trump, arranging a meeting with him in New York on Nov. 18. Beyond the attention given to the election, the LDP and Abe also sought to support the Obama administration by ratifying the Trans-Pacific Partnership and promoting maritime capacity building in Southeast Asia. President Obama and Prime Minister Abe met for the last time in Hawaii on Dec. 27. Uncertainty abounds on the economic and strategic fronts in the coming year, but the biggest unknown for the bilateral relationship will be the new US president and his approach to Asia.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Elections, and Leadership
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Asia, North America, and United States of America
3071. China Prepares for Rocky Relations in 2017
- Author:
- Bonnie S. Glaser and Alexandra Viers
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Comparative Connections
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- Summits between Barack Obama and Xi Jinping in September and November helped to keep tensions in check in the last four months of 2016. Despite persisting differences over how much pressure to impose on North Korea after Pyongyang conducted its fifth nuclear test, the US and China agreed on a new UN Security Council sanctions resolution. The US Navy conducted another freedom of navigation operation (FONOP) near the Paracel Islands in the South China Sea. A Chinese Navy vessel snatched a US drone, claiming it was threatening the safety of the Chinese ship and its crew, and returned it to the US five days later. Incremental progress was made on trade disputes at the 27th annual US-China Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade (JCCT) in Washington, DC. Meanwhile, the election of Donald Trump as the next US president threatened to inject significant uncertainty into US-China relations as Trump received a phone call from Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen and suggested that he might use Taiwan as a bargaining chip to extract concessions from China on other issues.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Leadership, Maritime, Conflict, and Denuclearization
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
3072. Unrest and Tests
- Author:
- Stephen Noerper
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Comparative Connections
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- North Korea opened the final months of 2016 with a bang by conducting its fifth nuclear test on Sept. 9. It followed up with a series of rocket and missile tests, culminating the year with Kim Jong Un’s claim of an imminent long-range ballistic missile capability. Yet, political transition in South Korea and the United States proved the hallmarks of late 2016, suggesting potential shifts in the approaches on the Peninsula, while underscoring the firm commitment of the US and ROK to their alliance. The Park-Choi scandal led to massive protests the final two months of the year and an impeachment vote on Dec. 9 by the National Assembly, confusing political observers about the implications for South Korean political stability. Donald Trump’s surprise victory in the US raised questions among Koreans about US reliability as an alliance partner.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Denuclearization
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, North Korea, North America, and United States of America
3073. Philippine Follies
- Author:
- Sheldon Simon
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Comparative Connections
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- The rather bizarre behavior of Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte dominated the news in late 2016. The former Davao mayor displayed his well-known anti-US feelings while aggressively pursuing his allegedly extrajudicial campaign against Philippine drug trafficking. Duterte’s invective ran the gamut from accusations that the US still treated the Philippines as a colony to a vulgar epithet directed at President Obama. There were also threats to end all bilateral military exercises and to terminate bilateral defense agreements. Philippine officials tried to soften Duterte’s remarks and US officials offered reassurances that the US would remain a reliable defense partner and planned to continue providing military assistance. Elsewhere, the US continued to focus attention on maritime security while avoiding direct involvement in the emerging controversy over treatment of the Muslim population in Rakine State, Myanmar.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Human Rights, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Governance, Leadership, and Discrimination
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Philippines
3074. Beijing Presses Its Advantages
- Author:
- Robert G. Sutter and Chin-Hao Huang
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Comparative Connections
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- Chinese leaders steered relations in Southeast Asia to their advantage after successfully countering the adverse ruling of the arbitral tribunal in The Hague against China’s controversial claims in the South China Sea. The remarkable turnabout in the Philippines, from primary claimant to pliant partner, and notable restraint on the South China Sea disputes by other claimants and concerned powers allowed Beijing to seek greater regional influence. In the closing months of 2016, Beijing made major advances with visits by the Philippine president and Malaysian prime minister, Premier Li Keqiang’s participation at ASEAN and East Asia Summit meetings in September, and President Xi Jinping’s participation at the APEC Leaders Meeting in November. China adopted a stronger regional leadership role as the US failed to implement important initiatives, notably the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). The main uncertainty in China’s positive outlook was President-elect Donald Trump who repeatedly criticized China, foreshadowing a less predictable and less reticent US approach to differences with China.
- Topic:
- Territorial Disputes, Governance, Leadership, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
3075. Adjusting to New Realities
- Author:
- David G. Brown and Kevin Scott
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Comparative Connections
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- After President Tsai’s inauguration, Beijing continued to press her to accept the 1992 Consensus on one China. When China blocked ICAO from inviting Taipei in September, Tsai reacted sharply. In her “Double Ten” remarks, she reaffirmed her cross-strait policy and said she would neither give in to pressure nor return to past confrontational actions. In October, CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping made remarks implying Beijing’s understanding that Tsai would not endorse one China. The election of Donald Trump created in Taipei both hope of friendship from Republicans and concern Taipei could become a pawn in Trump’s bargaining with China. Trump’s tweets about his telephone conversation with Tsai and comments about one China and trade have sparked intense speculation and uncertainty about their implications for cross-strait and US relations with Taiwan and China.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Territorial Disputes, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, and Asia
3076. Back to Diplomacy in 2017?
- Author:
- Aidan Foster-Career
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Comparative Connections
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- South Korea’s hardline response to North Korea’s nuclear and missile tests earlier in the year, which led to a complete severing of all inter-Korean contact, meant there was effectively no relationship between the two Koreas in final months of 2016. With the stalemate in relations coupled with the political turmoil in both Washington and Seoul, Aidan Foster-Carter provides his analysis to help understand how we got here by looking back and, even more importantly, looking forward. While North Korea watches and waits, there is a worrying power vacuum in Seoul in the wake of “ChoiSunsil-gate.” The next move largely depends on how South Korea responds to the impeachment of President Park Geun-hye.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, and Denuclearization
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, and North Korea
3077. Nuclear Test, Political Fallout, and Domestic Turmoil
- Author:
- Scott Snyder and See-Won Byun
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Comparative Connections
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- North Korea’s fifth nuclear test on Sept. 9 and the intensified test-firing of a range of missile types throughout 2016 underscored existing weaknesses in using dialogue and sanctions as a response. The timing of Pyongyang’s latest provocations coincided with the G20 Summit in Hangzhou and ASEAN-related meetings in Vientiane. President Park Geun-hye used the venues for sideline talks with President Xi Jinping and President Obama. The nuclear test directly challenged a nonproliferation statement adopted by East Asia Summit (EAS) members on Oct. 8, which urged North Korea to abandon its weapons programs. Following extended negotiations with the US, China finally joined the international community in adopting UN Security Council Resolution 2321 on Nov. 30. In addition to strains in the China-DPRK relationship, regional coordination on North Korea remains challenged by disputes between China and the ROK over THAAD and illegal Chinese fishing.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Peace, and Denuclearization
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, North Korea, North America, and United States of America
3078. Abe-Xi Met; Diplomats Talked; Wait ‘Til Next Year…
- Author:
- James J. Przystup
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Comparative Connections
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- Prime Minister Abe and President Xi met twice in the last four months of 2016. Both committed to advancing the relationship during 2017, taking advantage of the opportunities presented by historic anniversaries – the 45th anniversary of normalization and the 40th anniversary of the Japan-China Friendship Treaty. Both leaders also committed to the early implementation of an air and maritime communications mechanism. Notwithstanding the increasing air and maritime interactions between the PLA and the Japanese SDF and Coast Guard, working-level officials were unable to reach agreement. At the end of the year, the Abe government announced a record high defense budget for 2017; days later the China’s aircraft carrier transited in international waters between Okinawa and Miyakojima into the western Pacific. Meanwhile public opinion polling revealed growing pessimism in Japan with respect to China and Japan-China relations.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Leadership, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, and Asia
3079. What Goes Up, Must Come Down
- Author:
- David C. Kang and Jiun Bang
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Comparative Connections
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- Going into the final months of 2016, Seoul-Tokyo relations had been on a positive trajectory, creating that ill feeling that it was time for things to go awry. While the relatively calm period witnessed palpable results with the signing of the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) and solidarity against North Korea’s provocations, the political chaos in South Korea that climaxed with the impeachment of President Park Geun-hye in December put the brakes on further developments. The scandals surrounding the abuse of power involving a shadowy confidante made it difficult to shake off the feeling that the administration’s deals with Japan have become tainted. Now, South Korean presidential hopefuls are tapping into public discontent to undermine the “comfort women” deal reached in December 2015, and there is high skepticism in the media over the implementation of GSOMIA.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Asia, and South Korea
3080. The Pivot is Dead, Long Live the Pivot
- Author:
- Ralph A. Cossa and Brad Glosserman
- Publication Date:
- 05-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Comparative Connections
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- While it hasn’t always been pretty or (gasp) consistent, US Asia policy under the Trump administration is, with one major exception, pretty much where the Obama administration left it. America’s Asian alliances remain the foundation of its security strategy and “our one-China policy” has been reaffirmed. Even regarding North Korea, the objective – bringing Kim Jong Un “to his senses” – remains the same, although the approach seems to display less patience. The exception centers on the one promise that Trump (regrettably in our view) has kept: abandonment of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). On economic policy more generally, the promised trade war with China has (thus far) failed to materialize since “the Chinese have made some improvements on currency in recent months”; okay, Chinese currency manipulation actually stopped several years ago, but you get the point. While the search for a new buzz word to replace the “pivot” or “rebalance” continues, the vice president and secretaries of State and Defense have been to the region and the White House has confirmed President Trump’s plan to attend a trio of regional summits this fall. Asia remains a high priority region, for better and for worse.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Leadership
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
3081. Tokyo Transitions to Trump
- Author:
- Sheila A. Smith and Charles McClean
- Publication Date:
- 05-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Comparative Connections
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- The transition to the new Trump administration was far smoother for Japan than for other US allies. Prime Minister Abe Shinzo’s visit to Trump Tower the week after the election in November undoubtedly helped smooth the way, and his visit in February proved to be a successful confirmation of Tokyo’s highest priorities for alliance cooperation. Secretary of Defense James Mattis and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson both headed to Northeast Asia, reassuring Tokyo and Seoul of the administration’s commitment to its Asian allies. This early effort helped ensure continuity rather than disruption would be the theme for the US-Japan alliance for the next four years. North Korea, of course, helped that return to normalcy. Yet not all was settled in these early months. How the new administration was going to define its approach to trade remained ill-defined. The Japanese government, however, was not interested in a conversation that focused only on trade.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Governance, Leadership, and Transition
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Asia, North America, and United States of America
3082. Trump and Xi Break the Ice at Mar-a-Lago
- Author:
- Bonnie S. Glaser and Alexandra Viers
- Publication Date:
- 05-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Comparative Connections
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- The US-China relationship got off to an active, albeit fitful start after Donald Trump assumed the presidency on Jan. 20. Once Trump agreed to honor the US “one China” policy, Chinese officials engaged positively with their US counterparts, and planning began for the inaugural Trump-Xi meeting. China’s top diplomat, Yang Jiechi, visited Washington at the end of February, and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson traveled to Beijing in mid-March. The highlight of this period was the Trump-Xi summit, which took place at Mar-a-Lago on April 6-7. One of the major summit deliverables was the creation of a new high-level mechanism, the US-China Comprehensive Dialogue, which will be overseen by Trump and Xi. North Korea emerged as the pressing issue for the Trump administration as well as in the bilateral US-China relationship. Trump apparently made clear to Xi that if China is unwilling to cooperate, the US would seek to solve the North Korea threat unilaterally, including by pursuing penalties against Chinese banks and companies doing business with North Korea. After the summit, Trump called Xi twice to discuss North Korea and to urge him to put greater pressure on Pyongyang.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Governance, and Leadership
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
3083. Peninsula Tensions Spike
- Author:
- Stephen Noerper
- Publication Date:
- 06-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Comparative Connections
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- North Korea tested President Trump’s new administration with a New Year promise of imminent ICBM capability and subsequent missile launches. Tensions rose to the highest level since 1993/1994 with missile launches, the assassination of Kim Jong Nam, and a possible ICBM on display at a military parade to celebrate the 85th anniversary of the DPRK’s Korean People’s Army. Washington offered Seoul assurances of support, sending Defense Secretary Mattis, Secretary of State Tillerson, and Vice President Pence in early 2017. Yet, Trump’s comments about sending an “armada” with the dispatch of the USS Carl Vinson carrier strike group led South Koreans to fear blowback if the US conducted a preemptive or preventive strike against DPRK facilities. South Korea saw deployment of the first stages of THAAD, but the missile defense system and broader policy differences with May 9 ROK presidential victor Moon Jae-in will be challenges for US-South Korea relations.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Conflict, Missile Defense, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, North Korea, North America, and United States of America
3084. Mixed Messages
- Author:
- Sheldon Simon
- Publication Date:
- 05-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Comparative Connections
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- In its early months, the Trump administration has devoted little attention to Southeast Asia and US relations with the region have generally followed a trajectory set by the Obama administration. The US continued naval operations in the South China Sea and joint exercises with most ASEAN states with US air and naval forces rotating through bases in northern Australia and the Philippines and deploying from Singapore. There have been mixed signals between Manila and Washington. With the ASEAN states and China moving toward completion of a Code of Conduct (COC) on rules of engagement in the South China Sea, it is hoped that the new document would be “legally binding,” but little specific about its provisions has been published. Following Washington’s abrogation of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), Hanoi has sought to alleviate its disappointment, saying that it understands the US need to create more jobs and that it will try to accommodate Washington in future trade negotiations. During the Obama administration’s two terms (2009-2016), the president’s “rebalance” to Asia featured Southeast Asia as its centerpiece. President Obama made 11 separate trips to the Asia-Pacific, visiting a total of 14 countries, nine of which were members of ASEAN. His secretaries of state and defense also made multiple journeys to the region. Among many successes during these years were US accession to ASEAN’s Treaty of Amity and Cooperation, participation in the East Asia Summit for the first time in 2011, the establishment of the first diplomatic mission to ASEAN, and realization of the historic transition to democracy in Myanmar. The United States also increased the deployment of ships and aircraft to the region, particularly in Singapore, the Philippines, and Australia. In Obama’s final year, the US began distributing resources under the Maritime Security Initiative to assist Southeast Asian countries with their maritime domain awareness by transferring patrol vessels and surveillance aircraft as well as creating a system whereby these countries could share information on the region’s maritime security picture. While it’s still early for the Trump administration, there have been virtually no policy statements dealing with Southeast Asia, nor at this time (April) has the State Department chosen a deputy secretary – the number two position – or a permanent assistant secretary for East Asian and Pacific affairs. Direction from Washington for a region that was so important during the preceding eight years seems to be absent.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Leadership, Conflict, and Transition
- Political Geography:
- Asia, North America, United States of America, and South China Sea
3085. China Consolidates Control and Advances Influence
- Author:
- Robert G. Sutter and Chin-Hao Huang
- Publication Date:
- 06-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Comparative Connections
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- Chinese officials showed confidence and satisfaction that the cooling tensions in the South China Sea demonstrated increasing regional deference to Beijing’s interests while China’s economic importance to Southeast Asia loomed larger in a period of anticipated international retrenchment. They remained alert to possible actions by the United States, Japan, Australia and South China Sea claimant states that might upset the recent positive trajectory, but generally saw those states preoccupied or otherwise unwilling to push back strongly against Chinese ambitions. The way seemed open for steady consolidation and control of holdings and claimed rights along with a Chinese supported code of conduct on maritime activity in the South China Sea, diplomatic initiatives to promote closer ties and reduce regional suspicion of Chinese intentions, and an array of economic blandishments in line with Beijing’s ambitious Silk Road programs.
- Topic:
- Territorial Disputes, Hegemony, Maritime, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and South China Sea
3086. Adrift Without Dialogue
- Author:
- David G. Brown and Kevin Scott
- Publication Date:
- 06-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Comparative Connections
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- In February, President Trump told President Xi Jinping that the US would honor its one-China policy. This eased concern that the new administration would radically change US policy toward Taiwan, but it remains unclear how the Trump administration will deal with specific Taiwan issues. Relations between Beijing and Taipei have continued to be in an unstable but calm state in the early months of 2017. The formal channels of dialogue remain closed and no significant effort has been made to reopen them. In the meantime, practical issues have been dealt with, sometimes constructively but often in ways that exacerbate the lack of trust. This unstable and risky situation will likely continue in the months ahead.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, and Leadership
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, Asia, North America, and United States of America
3087. Can Moon Restore Sunshine?
- Author:
- Aidan Foster-Career
- Publication Date:
- 05-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Comparative Connections
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- The first four months of 2017 have been a momentous and tumultuous period for Korea. As of mid-May, the peninsula remains in a state of high anxiety and no little tension. A crisis? Maybe. Yet without counseling complacency, recent history suggests that that term tends to be over-applied to this part of the world’s recurring episodes of tension: amply chronicled down the years (for the present century) in successive issues of Comparative Connections. The reasons for this latest bout of tension are partly local but most global, or more precisely trans-Pacific. The local causes derive from both Koreas, if as usual mainly the North. During the past four months as in the previous five years, Kim Jong Un’s regime has shown little sign of a wish to lower tensions, mend fences, or even pursue normal relations with other states, friend or foe. Now in his sixth year in power, the third Kim remains unique as a 21st-century leader who in this era of globalization – and despite his own years of schooling in Europe – has neither ventured abroad nor met any other head of state or government, even on his home turf. The DPRK’s boasts of self-reliance may be mendacious on the economic front, where (as widely canvassed) Chinese sustenance remains vital. Yet diplomatically it does indeed stand alone; the more so as Pyongyang has begun bombarding even Beijing with the aggressive insults long hurled by Pyongyang at Seoul, Tokyo, and Washington. Kim seems to share the stance of Millwall FC, a notoriously ‘hard’ London soccer club whose fans chant: “No one likes us, we don’t care.” His father and grandfather were more subtle, at least in not picking fights Bruce Lee-style with all comers simultaneously. But just as success has long eluded Millwall, showing the finger to everyone can hardly work for Kim Jong Un long-term. It is not just words that North Korea lobs. This Kim has markedly accelerated the DPRK’s development of both nuclear weapons – an unprecedented two tests in 2016, after three in the decade from 2006 – and the ballistic missiles (BM) that might one day carry them. True to form, the first four months of 2017 saw half a dozen BM tests, not all successful. Yet contra many predictions, Kim has not (so far) marked the recent transitions of political power in two of his main foes – Washington first, and now Seoul too – with a nuclear test; unlike in May 2009 when Barack Obama faced that challenge, or February 2013 when a nuclear blast greeted both the re-elected Obama and the incoming Park Geun-hye. Still, with most of 2017 to go, it might be premature to seek to explain what may be a temporary non-event.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, and North Korea
3088. Two Koreas Defy Chinese Sanctions
- Author:
- Scott Snyder and See-Won Byun
- Publication Date:
- 05-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Comparative Connections
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- Pyongyang tested regional and domestic politics on six separate occasions by conducting missile launches between February and April. The latest tests coincided with the Xi-Trump summit in Mar-a-Lago and Vice President Pence’s visit to South Korea. They also marked the 105th birth anniversary of Kim Il Sung on April 15 amid intense speculation that North Korea might conduct a sixth nuclear test. In addition to supporting five UN Security Council statements on North Korea this year, Beijing on Feb. 18 announced a suspension of DPRK coal imports through December. DPRK military threats also catalyzed US-ROK plans to deploy THAAD, a source of mounting tension that affected all aspects of the China-South Korea relationship. Beijing’s retaliation took the form of restrictions from March on business and tourism. South Korea appealed to the WTO for redress and South Korean lawmakers passed resolutions condemning China’s retaliation. THAAD emerged at the center of domestic political debate in Seoul after Park Geun-hye’s ousting on March 10, following which PRC nuclear envoy Wu Dawei in April engaged major presidential contenders ahead of the May 9 elections. Beijing’s falling out with both Koreas presents a major challenge for coordinating regional policy with new administrations in Washington and Seoul.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Sanctions, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea
3089. No Pyrotechnics, No Progress
- Author:
- June Teufel Dreyer
- Publication Date:
- 05-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Comparative Connections
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- Though free of the large-scale anti-Japanese demonstrations and acerbic exchanges that have characterized the recent past, the cold peace between China and Japan continued in the early months of 2017. There were no meetings of high-level officials, and none were scheduled. Mutual irritants continued on familiar topics: defense and territorial issues, Taiwan, trade and tourism, and textbooks and history.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Social Movement, Conflict, Protests, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, and Asia
3090. Running on Rivalry: Presidential Hopefuls Capitalize on Disputes
- Author:
- David C. Kang and Gabrielle Cheung
- Publication Date:
- 05-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Comparative Connections
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- With South Korean presidential election scheduled for May 9, the early months of 2017 witnessed not only avid campaigning by candidates, but also a deepening diplomatic conflict between Seoul and Tokyo. In particular, the installation of a “comfort woman” statue facing the Consulate General of Japan in Busan last December perturbed bilateral relations, calling into question the landmark “comfort women” agreement. While the anticipated installations of additional statues by provincial and civic actors risked escalating tensions further, the presidential candidates have made nominal efforts to quell the concerns of Japanese diplomats. As the Blue House prepares to greet its new occupant, prospects for a significant turnaround in bilateral relations remain uncertain.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Elections, and Leadership
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Asia, and South Korea
3091. Both Push and Pull: Japan Steps Up in Southeast Asia
- Author:
- Catharin Dalpino
- Publication Date:
- 05-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Comparative Connections
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- Two political surprises in 2016 will affect Japan’s relations with Southeast Asia. The first, the election of President Rodrigo Duterte in the Philippines and his subsequent turn toward China, has likely not disturbed Japan’s role as the Philippines’ largest investor, trading partner, and aid donor. However, Duterte’s abrasiveness toward Washington could have a negative effect on the newly-forged Japan-Philippines security partnership and dampen the possibility of triangulating US, Japan, and Philippine cooperation in the South China Sea. A greater and more long-term impact could be the election of Donald Trump and the resulting uncertainty in US relations with Southeast Asia. Beyond that broad concern, Trump’s withdrawal of the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) throws the economic architecture of the Asia-Pacific region into question and could stymie the growth Japan had expected in trade relations with TPP members in Southeast Asia, particularly Vietnam and Malaysia. In January 2017, just days before Trump’s inauguration, Prime Minister Abe embarked on a swing through Southeast Asia to make “strategic adjustments” in Japanese relations with the Philippines, Indonesia, and Vietnam.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Hegemony, Conflict, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Japan and Asia
3092. The Porter Hypothesis Goes to China: Spatial Development, Environmental Regulation and Productivity
- Author:
- Pedro Naso, Yi Huang, and Tim Swanson
- Publication Date:
- 10-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Environmental Studies, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
- Abstract:
- We examine the relationship between environmental regulation and competitiveness in China. Exploiting exogenous changes in national pollution standards for three industries—ammonia, paper and cement—we test whether environmental regulation increases industry productivity. Our results show that the strong version of the Porter hypothesis does not hold, but that regulation might reallocate productivity spatially. We show that regulated industries that are located in newly developing cities see an increase in their productivity as compared to the same industries in other cities. This means that environmental regulation is more likely to drive the spatial distribution of productivity changes than it is to drive the pace and direction of technological change.
- Topic:
- Development, Environment, Science and Technology, Regulation, Productivity, and Competition
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
3093. How Does Environmental Regulation Shape Economic Development? A Tax Competition Model of China
- Author:
- Pedro Naso and Tim Swanson
- Publication Date:
- 10-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Environmental Studies, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
- Abstract:
- We propose a novel theoretical framework to study how environmental regulation shapes economic development in a developing country such as China. We develop a dynamic tax competition model in which local governments, located in development zones, use variation in taxes to attract workers to their jurisdictions. Their objective is to maximize tax revenue less local health costs that are proportional to local pollution. Our main result is that competition generates a reallocation of productive factors when national regulation is introduced. Local governments in more productive regions set greater production taxes than in other regions. This makes workers and output to shift from more to less developed regions of the country.
- Topic:
- Environment, Regulation, Tax Systems, Economic Development, and Competition
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
3094. Human rights treaty ratification behavior: An ASEAN Way of creating regional standards
- Author:
- William J. Jones
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
- Institution:
- Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
- Abstract:
- The signing of the ASEAN Human Rights Declaration in 2012 supposedly provides a long awaited triumph for human rights in the region and a measure by which regional human rights can finally prevail in parallel with the new ASEAN Intergovernmental Commission on Human Rights. It is my argument that there are two primary challenges to realizing universal regional human rights standards; ASEAN’s constitutive norms/identity and fragmentation of human rights understandings in national legal interpretations of international human rights instruments. To substantiate this I will analyze treaty ratification behavior of ASEAN states to find out what are interests and preferences of ASEAN states in terms of human rights by analyzing treaties and reservations/ declaration/statements which are attached to international human rights instruments that ASEAN states sign/accede to. Furthermore, I will demonstrate that treaty ratification behavior of ASEAN states is consistent with two strains of regional thought: sovereignty fears and cultural resistance to human rights norms and standards.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, International Cooperation, Regional Cooperation, Sovereignty, and Humanitarian Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Southeast Asia
3095. Turkish Civilian Capacity in Post-conflict Scenarios: The Cases of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo
- Author:
- Federico Donelli and Alessia Chiriatti
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
- Abstract:
- The disintegration of Yugoslavia has created huge instability in the Balkans since 1990. The post-conflicts challenges are still now on the table. Turkey continues to consider the Western Balkan countries as a priority: its activism reflects the multi-directionality of JDP’s policy. The paper will be oriented to enquire on Turkish networks in the Western Balkans. The approach will be historical and political, with an analysis of bilateral relations from the end of the Ottoman Empire, till ‘90s wars and the arrival of JDP on government. Throughout the analysis of two case studies - Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo- this article aims to highlight the application of the Turkey’s soft power in the Western Balkans.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Civil Society, State Formation, and Regional Power
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Asia, Kosovo, Balkans, and Bosnia and Herzegovina
3096. Continuity or Change in Turkish Foreign Policy? Analyzing the Policy Fluctuations during the Justice and Development Party Era
- Author:
- Murat Ulgul
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
- Institution:
- Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
- Abstract:
- For decades, change in Turkish foreign policy has remained as “a neglected phenomenon” in the literature while continuity is explained with two main pillars: Westernization and preference for the status quo. The topic started gaining popularity at the end of 2000s when some conflicts of interest emerged between Turkey and its traditional partners. Scholars mainly explained this change as the result of the new Turkish leadership under Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP). While the debate in this period provided extensive literature on the subject, the arguments created could not explain the policy fluctuations during the AKP era. In this article, the change in AKP foreign policy is examined during three time periods that show different characteristics in terms of domestic and international opportunities/constraints. It is argued that while Westernization still remains an important pillar in Turkish foreign policy, the main change seems to be in Turkey’s traditional preference for the status quo.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, Arab Spring, and Civil-Military Relations
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, and Asia
3097. Turkey-KRG Energy Relations: Internal and External Dynamics
- Author:
- Remziye Yilmaz
- Publication Date:
- 07-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
- Abstract:
- This paper aims at exploring internal and external dynamics of Turkey- KRG energy relations. It argues that Turkey’s fight against the PKK, its increasing energy need, the target of Turkish energy decision-makers to decrease the high reliance of the country on Russian and Iranian gas, Turkey’s goal of emerging as an energy hub, the economic interests of Turkish business groups, the strained relations between Ankara and Baghdad, and Erbil-Baghdad conflict have been the major determinants of Turkey’s energy strategy towards the KRG. The paper concludes that the independence referendum held by the KRG in September 2017 has serious implications for the future of the Ankara- Erbil energy partnership, depending on measures to be taken by Kurdish and Iraqi leaders.
- Topic:
- Security, Energy Policy, International Cooperation, and Independence
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, and Asia
3098. Regionalism in Eurasia: Explaining Authority Transfers to Regional Organizations
- Author:
- Ann-Sophie Gast
- Publication Date:
- 10-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Kolleg-Forschergruppe (KFG)
- Abstract:
- Corresponding to the global proliferation of inter-state activities at the regional level since the end of the Cold War, Eurasia has experienced a surge of regional agreements and organizations. Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, more than 29 regional organizations (ROs) with significant membership and agenda overlap have emerged. These organizations differ significantly in terms of institutional design. Organizations that were created in the 1990s and early 2000s display very limited or no pooling of authority and low to moderate delegation. Regional organizations that were established during the past decade show pronounced delegation and median pooling. A mapping based on formal treaty analysis shows a general deepening of regional integration over time. It also reveals three phases of Eurasian regionalism with distinct integration dynamics and goals. Especially the third phase is surprising, as we do not only witness the increase of political authority of ROs, but also a more consequent implementation of agreements and the introduction of supranational elements. This deepening of regionalism is puzzling in light of 1) the rather recent independence of the Eurasian states and their colonial past under Russian domination, 2) the level of autocracy in the region, and 3) the presence of a regional hegemon, which has moreover recently experienced an authoritarian backlash. Relying on the concept of political authority, the first part of this paper gives an overview of the development of formal regional integration in Eurasia during the past 25 years. The second part of the paper asks why Russia and the smaller Eurasian states go along with increasing authority transfers to ROs. Based on a series of elite interviews conducted in Russian in February and March 2017, potential drivers of Eurasian regionalism are explained, with particular attention to Russian motives. The paper concludes with an outlook on avenues for future research.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Hegemony, Regional Integration, and Regionalism
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eurasia, and Asia
3099. Women’s Empowerment in Armenia: Impact Evaluation of the Women’s Economic Empowerment Project in Rural Communities in Vayots Dzor region
- Author:
- Simone Lombardini
- Publication Date:
- 03-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- This evaluation is presented as part of the Effectiveness Review Series 2015/16, selected for review under the women’s empowerment thematic area. The evaluation took place in November 2015 in Vayots Dzor region – Armenia. It intended to evaluate the success of the ‘Women’s economic empowerment in rural communities of Vayots Dzor region’ project in achieving its objectives: increasing household income (by promoting agriculture/horticulture and agribusiness) and promoting women’s economic empowerment.
- Topic:
- Gender Issues, Economic Growth, Feminism, and Rural
- Political Geography:
- Asia, Armenia, and West Asia
3100. The Reality of the EU-Turkey Statement: How Greece has Become a Testing Ground for Policies that Erode Protection for Refugees
- Author:
- Ashleigh Lovertt, Renata Rendon, and Claire Whelan
- Publication Date:
- 03-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- One year ago, European states closed their borders along the Western Balkan route and EU leaders put in place the EU-Turkey Statement, a so-called temporary measure to stop irregular migration to Europe. Now EU leaders are declaring their approach a success. The International Rescue Committee (IRC), the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC), and Oxfam are providing humanitarian response on the Greek islands and mainland, and as their experience clearly shows, the context on the ground is far more troubling and complex. Beyond the deeply concerning situation in Greece, the EU is looking to replicate the EU-Turkey Statement model elsewhere, and in so doing, risks setting a dangerous precedent for the rest of the world. The EU has a proud history of commitment to international law and human rights which has driven its policies for 60 years. This joint agency paper argues that now is the time for Europe to show global leadership on migration by adopting policies that uphold these values, rather than triggering a race to the bottom.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, European Union, Refugee Crisis, Borders, and Humanitarian Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, and Asia