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402. Family and Inequality: “Diverging Destinies” in Japan
- Author:
- James M. Raymo and Daniel Smith
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
- Abstract:
- “Diverging destinies” is a term used by family demographers and sociologists to describe growing socioeconomic differentials in family behavior and their implications. Drawing primarily on evidence from the U.S., research on diverging destinies has demonstrated that those at the lower end of the socioeconomic spectrum are increasingly engaging in family behaviors that are associated with reduction in the resources available to their children (e.g., nonmarital childbearing) while those at the upper end of the spectrum are engaging in family behaviors associated with increased resources (e.g., stable marriage). This pattern of family bifurcation has potentially important implications for the reinforcement of inequality both within and across generations. Despite tremendous interest in both family change and growing socioeconomic inequality in Japan, social scientific efforts to link these trends are limited. In this talk, Professor James Raymo will summarize the results of several recent papers (both published and in progress) on socioeconomic differences in family demographic behavior and children’s well-being in Japan. In general, the findings of these studies show patterns of family bifurcation consistent with predictions of the diverging destinies framework, but of a magnitude that is less pronounced than observed in the U.S. Among the most pronounced differences in Japan are a strong negative educational gradient in divorce and substantial differences in the well-being of children in single-mother and two-parent families. In thinking about the relevance of diverging destinies in Japan, he stresses the theoretical and empirical value of considering intergenerational family relationships, gender inequality, and the changing economic environment.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Inequality, Family, and Socioeconomics
- Political Geography:
- Japan and Asia
403. Photo Poetics: Chinese Lyricism and Modern Media Culture
- Author:
- Shengqing Wu, Ying Qian, and Alexander Alberro
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
- Abstract:
- Chinese poetry has a long history of interaction with the visual arts. Classical aesthetic thought held that painting, calligraphy, and poetry were cross-fertilizing and mutually enriching. What happened when the Chinese poetic tradition encountered photography, a transformative technology and presumably realistic medium that reshaped seeing and representing the world? This event is organized by the Weatherhead East Asian Institute and cosponsored by the Department of East Asian Languages and Cultures, and the Center for Comparative Media, all at Columbia University.
- Topic:
- Arts, Culture, Media, and Buddhism
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
404. The Buddhist Dream Tale: Past and Present
- Author:
- Francisca Cho and Seong Uk Kim
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
- Abstract:
- Kim Manjung's Kuunmong, or Dream of the Nine Clouds, was written by a scholar-official and he turned to the Buddhist trope that "life is nothing but a dream" in order to express his doubts and disappointment about the Confucian social structure in which he lived. The speaker argues that the dream tale turns the act of fiction writing into a Buddhist philosophical exercise, and she will draw out this argument by considering how the medium of fiction functions in a ritual way. In this vein, she brings the dream tale into the present by considering the experience of cinema as an analogue. This event is cosponsored by the Center for Korean Research and the Weatherhead East Asian Institute.
- Topic:
- Religion, Arts, Culture, and Literature
- Political Geography:
- Asia
405. We Uyghurs Have No Say: A Roundtable on the Writings of Ilham Tohti
- Author:
- Rune Steenberg, Abdürreşit Celil Karluk, and David Brophy
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
- Abstract:
- Prior to his arrest and sentencing in 2014, economist Ilham Tohti was one of China’s leading experts on contemporary Xinjiang. His academic work and online writings voiced a rare perspective – that of an Uyghur intellectual working within the Chinese system - on the increasingly marginal and precarious position of his Uyghur community in modern China. Ultimately, this critique proved too controversial for the party, and he is now serving a life sentence in prison for “separatism.” We Uyghurs Have No Say (Verso 2022) is a collection of Ilham Tohti’s articles and interviews, translated from Chinese into English, which chart his scholarly interventions from 2007 until his silencing. To mark its publication, this event will assemble a panel of sociologists and anthropologists of Xinjiang – some of whom studied under Ilham in Beijing – to reflect on these writings and the wider significance of Ilham’s work for our understanding of social and political developments in Xinjiang.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Prisons/Penal Systems, Political Prisoners, and Uyghurs
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and Xinjiang
406. Long Odds Struggles in East and Southeast Asia, the 1910-1920s and 2010-2020s
- Author:
- Jeffrey Wasserstrom, Manan Ahmed, Lien-Hang Nguyen, and Jeffrey Ngo
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
- Abstract:
- During the first decades of the last century, activists with ties to various parts of Asia embraced and then discarded different ideologies and found varying ways to connect with one another, sometimes in exile. What linked them were some shared grievances, such as a dislike of the way their community was being bullied or controlled by people in a distant capital and of the limits on their freedom to speak out on issues that concerned them and organize to bring about change. We have been seeing something similar in some ways but different in others take place now, as activists in and exiles from Hong Kong, Thailand and Burma take part in what is sometimes called "Milk Tea Alliance" struggles. There are obvious contrasts: importance of online connections now is novel; the Chinese state was a weak force a century ago, but is a strong one today; Vietnamese activists were a more central part of the earlier story than the current one; ties between South Asian and East Asian exiles were more notable a century ago; and there is no contemporary counterpart to the Comintern on the scene connecting radicals. And yet, this talk will argue, there are important echoes of the earlier period to be heard today, as well as much to learn about how different struggles in East and Southeast Asia influenced one another at other points in time, such as the 1980s. This talk will focus on Chinese activists of the early 1900s and Hong Kong ones now but place both groups in comparative and transnational perspectives, will move between the two eras with an eye toward reoccurrences, ruptures, and reversals.
- Topic:
- Protests, Ideology, and Activism
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, Burma, Thailand, Southeast Asia, and Hong Kong
407. A conversation with Loden Sherab Dagyab Rinpoche
- Author:
- Loden Sherab Dagyab Rinpoche, Pema Bhum, and Riga Shakya
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
- Abstract:
- This event was co-hosted by the Modern Tibetan Studies Program at Columbia University and The Latse Project, with funding and administrative support from the Weatherhead East Asian Institute. Dagyab Rinpoche, one of the few living Tibetan witnesses of the 1950 advance of the People's Liberation Army into Chamdo, was just nine years old when Chinese Communist authorities urged him to participate as one of the high-ranking dignitaries (zhuren) for their first conference in the region. He then went on to study at Drepung Loseling Monastery in Lhasa until his escape to India in 1959. In this talk, Rinpoche describes his experience of this important historical juncture.
- Topic:
- Religion, History, and Memory
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and Tibet
408. China's Colonial Boarding Schools in Tibet
- Author:
- Lhadon Tethong, Freya Putt, Jia Luo, Tenzin Dorjee, and Andy Nathan
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
- Abstract:
- Chinese government policies are forcing three out of every four Tibetan students into a vast network of colonial boarding schools, separating children as young as four from their parents. According to a recent report by Tibet Action Institute, the schools are a cornerstone of Xi Jinping’s campaign to supplant Tibetan identity with a homogenous Chinese identity in order to neutralize potential resistance to Chinese Communist Party (CCP) rule. The report, “Separated From Their Families, Hidden From the World: China’s Vast System of Colonial Boarding Schools Inside Tibet,” finds that an estimated 800,000 to 900,000 Tibetan students aged six to 18, as well as an unknown number of four and five-year olds, are in these state-run schools. This panel will discuss how the schools function as sites for remolding children into Chinese nationals loyal to the CCP.
- Topic:
- Education, Culture, Children, Colonialism, and Boarding Schools
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and Tibet
409. Inflamed Publics: Social Media, Violence, and Resistance Panel 1
- Author:
- Wanning Sun, Radhika Gajjala, Daniel Mann, and Jinsook Kim
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
- Abstract:
- From online troll armies to digital warriors, camouflage to infiltration, the techniques and affects of war pervade global digital cultures today via social media platforms such as Whatsapp, WeChat, Twitter, and TikTok. As trending hashtags on Twitter become a statistical measure of the ebbs and flows of mass political sentiment, this symposium seeks to understand the relation between everyday digital media technologies, image-making practices, and violence in the 21st century. Over 3 consecutive days we will meet with film and media scholars, digital activists, ethnographers, and communications theorists to initiate a collaborative exploration of research methods to address the role of social media today with an eye to questions of aesthetics, sentiment, and sensory experience. This event focuses on three geographical locations: China, India and Palestine/Israel, based on the three co-organizers' areas of research. Speakers are scholars working on media cultures in one of the above regions. This event is sponsored by the Humanities War and Peace Initiative, Columbia University and co-sponsored by the Center for Comparative Media, South Asia Institute and the Weatherhead East Asian Institute.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Social Media, Violence, and Resistance
- Political Geography:
- China, Middle East, India, Israel, Asia, and Palestine
410. Negotiating Local Business Practices With China in Benin
- Author:
- Folashade Soule
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Commercial negotiations between Benin and China demonstrate how both sides navigate the dynamics of Africa-China business-to-business relationships. In Benin, Chinese and local Beninese officials engaged in drawn-out negotiations on a deal to construct a business center aimed at deepening business links between Chinese and Beninese merchants. Strategically located in Cotonou, Benin’s principal economic city, the center aims to promote investment and wholesale businesses by serving as a hub for China’s business-to-business relations not just in Benin but regionally in West Africa, especially in the large and growing neighboring market of Nigeria. This paper relies on original research and fieldwork conducted in Benin from 2015 to 2021 and the author’s access to draft and final contracts from the negotiations, which allow for a side-by-side comparative textual analysis, as well as initial field interviews and follow-up interviews with key negotiators, Beninese businessmen, and former Beninese students in China. The paper shows how Chinese and Beninese authorities negotiated the establishment of the center and, above all, how Beninese authorities made Chinese negotiators adapt to local Beninese labor, construction, and legal norms and put pressure on their Chinese counterparts. This strategy meant that negotiations took longer than usual to complete. China-Africa cooperation is often characterized by speedy negotiations, an approach that in some cases turns out to be harmful—since this can allow vague and unfair clauses to be featured in final contracts. The negotiations over the Chinese business center in Benin is a good example of how well-coordinated negotiators that take their time and work in coordination with various counterparts throughout the government can help facilitate better outcomes in terms of high-quality infrastructure and compliance with prevailing construction, labor, environmental, and business norms, while also preserving a good bilateral relationship with China.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Development, Bilateral Relations, and Business
- Political Geography:
- Africa, China, Asia, and Benin
411. How Huawei’s Localization in North Africa Delivered Mixed Returns
- Author:
- Tin Hinane El Kadi
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Trade between China and North Africa has increased significantly since the early 2000s, but it has largely reproduced patterns of unequal exchange. Since they were unveiled, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Chinese government’s 2016 Arab Policy Paper have signaled the promise of a qualitative shift in China’s engagement with the region. China has committed to increase investments in high-value-added sectors and to boost cooperation in science and technology with countries across North Africa. The digital space is a notable aspect of recent China–North African partnerships. Chinese tech firms are becoming ever more important actors in North Africa through the Digital Silk Road, the digital component of the BRI. North African governments see the Digital Silk Road as an opportunity to help bridge the digital divide and bolster their own national efforts to build digital economies and create high-quality jobs for the millions of unemployed university graduates across the region. In recent years, the region has become home to notable Digital Silk Road projects such as smart cities, satellite navigation centers, data centers, and network infrastructure. Huawei’s localization strategies in Algeria and Egypt show that, far from imposing a one-size-fits-all blueprint on other countries, as Beijing is often depicted as doing in U.S. and European media and policy discussions, Chinese tech players adapt their engagement depending on local development agendas. Flexibility, customization, and services tailored to local demand have been cornerstones of Huawei’s localization strategies in North Africa. Accommodating local development priorities is central to Huawei’s success in globalizing its business ventures. The Chinese firm has responded favorably to Algeria’s and Egypt’s attempts to leverage foreign companies for conducting more value-added activities within their respective economies. Among other things, Huawei opened its first African factory in Algeria, employing Algerians to assemble products for and beyond the Algerian market. It also launched an OpenLab for conducting research and development (R&D) activities in Egypt and established partnerships with several universities in the region to train local students. However, closer scrutiny of Huawei’s localization in both Algeria and Egypt indicates that the company improved its brand image without engaging in meaningful capacity building. For all its success at winning the hearts of government officials across the region, Huawei has engaged in training, manufacturing, and R&D in a way designed to maintain the firm’s technological edge. The Chinese tech giant has managed to localize seemingly developmental activities in North Africa without contributing much to technological upgrading. North African governments should take lessons from China’s playbook of how it became a technological superpower. This means adopting policies that could maximize the benefits of Chinese and non-Chinese investments by ensuring positives spillovers and protecting potential local tech champions. Increasing economic integration across North African countries and moving beyond fragmented bilateral commercial negotiations with China are two steps that may help level the playing field with the Asian giant.
- Topic:
- Development, Science and Technology, Telecommunications, Huawei, and Digital Space
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, Algeria, North Africa, and Egypt
412. U.S.-China Technological “Decoupling”: A Strategy and Policy Framework
- Author:
- Jon Bateman
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- A partial “decoupling”2 of U.S. and Chinese technology ecosystems is well underway. Beijing plays an active role in this process, as do other governments and private actors around the world. But the U.S. government has been a primary driver in recent years with its increased use of technology restrictions: export controls, divestment orders, licensing denials, visa bans, sanctions, tariffs, and the like. There is bipartisan support for at least some bolstering of U.S. tech controls, particularly for so-called strategic technologies, where Chinese advancement or influence could most threaten America’s national security and economic interests. But what exactly are these strategic technologies, and how hard should the U.S. government push to control them? Where is the responsible stopping point—the line beyond which technology restrictions aimed at China do more harm than good to America? These are vexing questions with few, if any, clear answers. Yet the United States cannot afford simply to muddle through technological decoupling, one of the most consequential global trends of the early twenty-first century. The U.S. technology base—foundational to national well-being and power—is thoroughly enmeshed with China in a larger, globe-spanning technological web. Cutting many strands of this web to reweave them into new patterns will be daunting and dangerous. Without a clear strategy, the U.S. government risks doing too little or—more likely—too much to curb technological interdependence with China. In particular, Washington may accidentally set in motion a chaotic, runaway decoupling that it cannot predict or control. Sharper thinking and more informed debates are needed to develop a coherent, durable strategy. Today, disparate U.S. objectives are frequently lumped together into amorphous constructs like “technology competition.” Familiar terms like “supply chain security” often fail to clarify such basic matters as which U.S. interests must be secured and why. Important decisions are siloed within opaque forums (like the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States [CFIUS]), narrow specialties (like export control law), or individual industries (like semiconductors), concealing the bigger picture. The traditional concerns of “tech policy” and “China policy” receive outsized attention, while second-order implications in other areas (such as climate policy) get short shrift. And as China discourse in the United States becomes more politically charged, arguments for preserving technology ties are increasingly muted or not voiced at all. This report aims to address these gaps and show how American leaders can navigate the vast, perilous, largely unmapped terrain of technological decoupling. First, it gives an overview of U.S. thinking and policy—describing how U.S. views on Chinese technology have evolved in recent years and explaining the many tools that Washington uses to curb U.S.- China technological interdependence. Second, it frames the major strategic choices facing U.S. leaders—summarizing three proposed strategies for technological decoupling and advocating a middle path that preserves and expands America’s options. Third, it translates this strategy into implementable policies and processes—proposing specific objectives for U.S. federal agencies and identifying the technology areas where government controls are (or are not) warranted. The report also highlights many domestic investments and other self-improvement measures that must go hand in hand with restrictive action.
- Topic:
- National Security, Science and Technology, Intellectual Property/Copyright, Authoritarianism, Economy, Espionage, Military, and Interdependence
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
413. A case for differentiated legal responses to child, early and forced marriage and unions: Lessons from India for a Global Audience.
- Author:
- Katherine Watson
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- American Jewish World Service (AJWS)
- Abstract:
- Around the world, gender inequality continues to harm women and girls. Systemic discrimination and entrenched social norms limit their opportunities and freedom, while increasing their risk for a host of bad outcomes.
- Topic:
- Children, Child Marriage, Marriage, and Legal Aid
- Political Geography:
- India and Asia
414. CHIPS Act will spur US production but not foreclose China
- Author:
- Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Megan Hogan
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- The CHIPS and Science Act, export controls, and agreements with allied countries will accomplish many of their multiple objectives. More US semiconductor fabrication plants will be built, US R&D will be accelerated, and advanced chips and chip-making machines will be denied to China, Russia, and other adversaries. However, the Act will not make a material difference to US chip supplies in the next two or three years. Slower economic growth has already tipped the chips market in favor of ample supplies. While collective measures have inflicted considerable short-term pain on China, causing a sharp drop in the fortunes of its high-tech firms, China will respond by redoubling its self-sufficiency programs. The United States, however, should not mimic China in pursuing self-sufficiency, as US self-sufficiency is an illusion. The United States currently exports high-value chips and imports low-value chips, so increasing self-sufficiency would require the United States to prioritize basic chip production at the same time it is supposed to be competing with China in advanced chip production. Continuing to prioritize advanced chip production—where the United States has a clear advantage—is the most efficient course of action.
- Topic:
- Economics, Legislation, Exports, Production, and Semiconductors
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and United States of America
415. Is South Korea vulnerable to EU and US carbon border restrictions?
- Author:
- Jeffrey J. Schott and Megan Hogan
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- South Korean exports, especially carbon-intensive products like steel, are increasingly vulnerable to both the European Union’s proposed carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM)—set to begin on January 1, 2023—and the proposed Clean Competition Act (CCA) before the US Congress. Schott and Hogan caution that Korean exporters should not count on Korea’s decade-old EU and US free trade agreements (FTAs), nor on the multilateral trading rules of the World Trade Organization (WTO), to protect them from new carbon-based import barriers in key foreign markets. The WTO and the FTAs have broad and loosely defined exemptions for environmental protection. Nor is Korea likely to be shielded by its own cap-and-trade emissions trading system (the K-ETS), because of extensive use of free allowances and large differences between EU and Korean carbon prices. While the threat the EU CBAM poses to Korean exports is imminent, passage of the CCA faces major legislative obstacles. But US imports of Korean steel and other carbon-intensive goods are still subject to climate-related duties at the US border under US unfair trade statutes. The US Department of Commerce has ruled that free allowances issued under the K-ETS (and EU ETS) are implicit subsidies that can be offset by countervailing duties. These charges are in addition to the harsh tariff-rate quotas on imported Korean steel applied under the “national security” authority of Section 232 of US trade law, which are more restrictive than measures imposed against European and other steel exporters. The authors suggest relaxing these US barriers, as they have been for shipments from Europe, in return for Korean participation in the nascent US-EU talks to establish a “Global Arrangement on Sustainable Steel and Aluminum.”
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, European Union, Exports, and Carbon Emissions
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Asia, South Korea, and United States of America
416. South Korea should prepare for its exposure to US-China technology tensions
- Author:
- Mary Lovely and Abigail Dahlman
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- The stated goal of the US-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) is to create standards that enhance and elevate regional trade and investment flows, but it is clearly aimed at reducing the role of China in global supply chains. As China is Korea’s largest trading partner, US policy discouraging Chinese participation in supply chains has immediate detrimental implications for Korean manufacturers. The United States is the second-most important destination for Korean exports. Given the values of these triangular trade flows, Lovely and Dahlman assess South Korea’s exposure to US demands to remove or reduce Chinese participation in the manufacture of exports destined for the US market. The reliance of the proposed framework on certain standards will likely reduce Chinese participation in IPEF trade networks. Korea may benefit from this trend, but IPEF could also increase production costs for Korean companies, especially in the electronics sector, a problem that would worsen if China retaliates against these companies. To reduce these risks, Korea might find it prudent to reduce its reliance on intermediate goods from China for products it produces for export to the United States. The Korean government should also seek to better understand its exposure to US–China trade tensions and diversify its trade relations. Korean firms should start preparing for supply chain disruptions, perhaps by making investments at home. Korea could also help other IPEF members reduce supply chain disruptions while addressing security concerns over China.
- Topic:
- Economics, Science and Technology, Supply Chains, and Competition
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America
417. Public responses to foreign protectionism: Evidence from the US-China trade war
- Author:
- David Steinberg and Yeling Tan
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- America's recent turn toward protectionism has raised concerns about the future viability of the liberal international trading system. This study examines how and why public attitudes toward international trade change when one's country is targeted by protectionist measures from abroad. To address this question, the authors fielded three original survey experiments in the country most affected by US protectionism: China. First, they find consistent evidence that US protectionism reduces Chinese citizens' support for trade. This finding is replicated in parallel experiments on technology cooperation, and further validated outside of the China context with a survey experiment in Argentina. Second, they show that responses to US protectionism reflect both a "direct reciprocity" logic—citizens want to retaliate against the United States specifically—and a "generalized reciprocity" logic that reduces support for trade on a broader, systemic basis.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Protectionism, and Competition
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
418. North Korea as a complex humanitarian emergency: Assessing food insecurity
- Author:
- Marcus Noland
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- North Korea is a complex humanitarian emergency with food insecurity at its core. As of August 2022, both quantity and price data point to a deteriorating situation, made worse by the regime’s self-isolating response to the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. Food availability has likely fallen below minimum human needs and on one metric is the worst since the 1990s famine. Food insecurity in North Korea is not only a humanitarian issue but also a strategic one. In this context, the diplomatic leverage conferred by aid is unclear, nor is North Korea’s priority as a recipient, in light of competing needs elsewhere. Resolution of North Korea’s chronic food insecurity would require changes in the regime’s domestic and foreign policy commitments, but this seems unlikely due to enablement by China and Russia.
- Topic:
- Food Security, Crisis Management, Humanitarian Crisis, COVID-19, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Asia and North Korea
419. Why gender disparities persist in South Korea’s labor market
- Author:
- Karen Dynan, Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, and Anna Stansbury
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Although the South Korean economy fared relatively well on the whole during the pandemic, the labor market consequences were uneven, with women experiencing worse outcomes than men. These gender disparities have reinforced and highlighted important longer-term gender-related challenges in the South Korean labor market. Despite an above-average level of female tertiary education, the gender pay gap in South Korea is at the top of the range among OECD countries. The labor force participation rate is 20 percentage points lower for women than for men, a difference that is about one-quarter larger than the average for high-income countries. These disparities—as well as fertility that is the lowest of any advanced economy country in the world—reduce South Korea's future economic prospects and will contribute to fiscal challenges as the population rapidly ages. The analysis in this paper suggests that the combination of low female employment and low fertility in South Korea reflects features of the traditional nature of work that create a particularly stark tradeoff for women between work and family and put pressure on women to choose one or the other. This tradeoff has increased in recent years because the opportunity cost of having a child has risen with the rapid growth in the tertiary education rate of South Korean women. Regressions based on individual-level data from the Korean Labor and Income Panel Study (KLIPS) show that the entire gap in female labor force participation is driven by married women, particularly women with children. Unmarried women with no children are just as likely to be employed as men. A sizable "child earnings penalty" for South Korean women is fully explained by women dropping out of the labor force after the birth of their first child rather than reducing hours or hourly wages. Although South Korea has made strides toward making work more family friendly, there is scope to do better.
- Topic:
- Economics, Inequality, Labor Market, Fertility, and Gender
- Political Geography:
- Asia and South Korea
420. Public Views of the U.S.-China Competition in MENA
- Author:
- Michael Robbins
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Arab Barometer
- Abstract:
- Over the last decade, the global competition between the U.S. and China has been on the rise. China’s increased global outlook, particularly through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), has led to a significantly greater economic engagement with countries across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). At the same time, the U.S. continues its retrenchment from the region focusing on a broader pivot to Asia. How have these developments affected views toward both countries? Arab Barometer’s wave seven, the largest public opinion survey of its kind across MENA since the time of COVID, provides insight into these questions. Across MENA, China remains more popular than the U.S. Among the nine countries surveyed, only in Morocco is the U.S. more popular overall than China. In the remainder, China tends to be significantly more favored than the U.S. Yet, this story may be gradually changing. When asked about closer economic ties between their country and the two global powers, in the majority of countries surveyed, citizens are significantly less likely to say they want stronger ties with China than they were in 2018-19. In no country is there an increased desire for stronger economic ties with China while in multiple cases there has been a 20-point shift against China. By comparison, in most countries the desire for closer economic ties with the U.S. has increased or remained unchanged over the same period. This outcome suggests that BRI may not be having the intended effects, with citizens now moving away from China overall.
- Topic:
- Infrastructure, Conflict, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Strategic Competition, and Rivalry
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
421. Savings transition in Asia: Unity in diversity
- Author:
- Prema-chandra Athukorala and Wanissa Suanin
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper examines the national savings behaviour in the process of economic growth through a comparative analysis of countries in developing Asia from a historical perspective. Developing Asia provides an ideal laboratory for the study with considerable differences in the savings behaviour among countries and over time within individual countries, notwithstanding the ‘model saver’ image based on the average savings rate. The empirical analysis distinguishes between private and government savings rates, with specific emphasis on the former. The results of the empirical analysis are consistent with the view of ‘virtuous circle’ between growth and savings, with growth initiating the savings transition. No evidence to suggest that a prior phase of promoting savings through specific policy initiatives is needed to initiate the process of growth and structural transformation. The private savings rate is associated positively with per capita gross domestic product, export orientation, and foreign resource inflows and negatively with the young dependency ratio of the population and domestic credit availability.
- Topic:
- Economic Growth, Exports, Savings, and Structural Transformation
- Political Geography:
- Asia
422. When only China wants to play: Institutional turmoil and Chinese investment in Brazil
- Author:
- Niels Sondergaard, Ana Flavia Barros-Platiau, and Hyeyoon Park
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
- Institution:
- Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
- Abstract:
- The political and institutional crisis in Brazil from 2015, fueled largely by corruption probes and lawfare, had severe repercussions within the Brazilian construction and energy sectors. While many international investors withdrew from Brazil in this period, Chinese investment surged. This article accounts for the particular characteristics of Chinese investments, such as sectorial complementarities, risk assessment, market size attraction, and state-drivenness, which may explain this development.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Hegemony, Investment, and Institutions
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, Brazil, and South America
423. BRICS and Global Health Diplomacy in the Covid-19 Pandemic: Situating BRICS’ diplomacy within the prevailing global health governance context
- Author:
- Candice Moore
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
- Institution:
- Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
- Abstract:
- BRICS have been cast as a bloc with the potential to make significant changes in Global Health. The management of the Covid-19 pandemic has shown divisions in the bloc and the limits of its ability to formulate policies or even act upon previously agreed positions. This paper employs an examination of BRICS Health Ministerial declarations and an analysis of power in International Relations to reflect on BRICS’ Global Health diplomacy during the Covid-19 pandemic, covering the key questions of vaccine research and development, vaccine nationalism, and travel bans. It finds that multiple dimensions of power matter in Global Health leadership.
- Topic:
- Health, International Cooperation, Governance, Pandemic, COVID-19, and BRICS
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Russia, China, Europe, India, Asia, South Africa, Brazil, and South America
424. The Scowcroft Center’s project on twenty-first-century diplomacy
- Author:
- Jeffrey Cimmino and Amanda J. Rothschild
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- How should US diplomacy adapt for the twenty-first century? The practice of diplomacy has changed drastically over the past several decades, with the return of great power rivalry, the emergence of the new technologies of the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR), and the rise of other important developments. Yet, while scholars and strategists have devoted enormous attention to how these new developments affect other domains, such as the future of warfare, they have devoted scant attention to the changing nature of diplomacy. If we believe, however, that diplomacy is a—if not the—most important tool of American statecraft, then twenty-first-century diplomacy deserves the same level of sustained attention. This paper will seek to characterize the changing nature of diplomacy with the objective of helping US and allied diplomats more effectively practice strategy and statecraft. This issue brief considers two key questions. How is the context of twenty-first-century diplomacy different from that of the past? How can US diplomacy begin to adapt for the twenty-first century? In answering the first question, this issue brief will focus on the most salient change in the international balance of power—the rise of China—in addition to the current technological revolution. After outlining how these changes have affected the context in which the United States conducts diplomacy, this issue brief will suggest several proposals to adapt US diplomacy to the twenty-first century. These suggestions will address both how changes in the global context—especially technology—have affected the conduct of US diplomacy and how US diplomacy can best respond to China’s rise and the 4IR.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Organization, Politics, Science and Technology, and Innovation
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and United States of America
425. Space Traffic Management: Time for Action
- Author:
- Mir Sadat and Julia Siegel
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Outer space has long been characterized as “contested, congested, and competitive.” More than four thousand eight hundred active satellites currently orbit Earth, representing over forty nations, and nearly twenty-five thousand satellites are projected to join by 2030. Moreover, spacefaring entities are testing the limits of space exploration: Visionary space companies are aiming to launch space tourism programs and send humans to space within the decade, and governments and militaries are increasing activity in cislunar space—the sphere formed by the Earth-Moon radius—to leverage advantageous orbital regions. As humanity expands its frontiers deeper into the galaxy, the threats to US and allied space capabilities will continue to increase. Yet, despite the proliferation of space activity, the ability of international and national bodies to track and regulate space objects—often referred to as space traffic management (STM)—reflects a past era wherein few actors conducted limited operations in space. The current state of STM can be more aptly described as space situational awareness (SSA), or the mere knowledge of objects in orbit. Global actors (including national governments, corporations, and international organizations) track space objects and notify satellite operators when the probability of collision is notable. While collision avoidance maneuvers are standard when there is a one in ten thousand chance of collision, it is ultimately up to the operators to determine whether and when they will move. The limits of this decentralized approach to SSA were illustrated in September 2019 when a European Space Agency satellite veered off path to avoid a Starlink satellite whose operator missed an email notification signaling a high probability of collision.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, National Security, and Space
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Eurasia, Asia, and United States of America
426. Will economic statecraft threaten western currency dominance? Sanctions, geopolitics, and the global monetary order
- Author:
- Carla Norrlof
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The return of great power rivalry is stoking renewed fears of weakening Western currency dominance. Financial sanctions are becoming the preferred economic tool for accomplishing geopolitical goals. These instruments are especially popular with the United States and Europe. In response, rival great powers, notably China and Russia, are diversifying away from Western currencies and developing counterstrategies to maintain economic and foreign policy autonomy. As other countries are hit by increasingly punishing Western sanctions, the incentive to join Russia and China’s alternative international monetary order increases. New analysis, published in this report, shows early signs that some countries may be trying to diversify away from the dollar. A growing circle of countries attempting to evade the Western-centric financial and currency order may over time erode the dollar and the euro’s sizeable lead, though will likely fall well short of ending their global dominance. This report analyzes these trends and quantifies the extent of reserve diversification following Russia’s 2022 war on Ukraine. It also assesses the polarity of the international currency order since the onset of the euro in 2002. Reserve diversification out of the dollar, and into the euro, has been modest, though Chinese renminbi reserves grew after Russia’s February offensive in Ukraine. Dollar unipolarity declined acutely in 2017 as the number of countries sanctioned by the United States increased and the US President Donald J. Trump threatened to revoke alliance commitments. Using economic statecraft while retaining global economic influence will require the United States to keep its economic house in order and allies close, if the current unipolar currency order is to survive.
- Topic:
- Economics, Monetary Policy, Sanctions, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, and Asia
427. China’s surveillance ecosystem and the global spread of its tools
- Author:
- Bulelani Jili
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- This paper seeks to offer insights into how China’s domestic surveillance market and cyber capability ecosystem operate, especially given the limited number of systematic studies that have analyzed its industry objectives. For the Chinese government, investment in surveillance technologies advances both its ambitions of becoming a global technology leader as well as its means of domestic social control. These developments also foster further collaboration between state security actors and private tech firms. Accordingly, the tech firms that support state cyber capabilities range from small cyber research start-ups to leading global tech enterprises. The state promotes surveillance technology and practices abroad through diplomatic exchanges, law enforcement cooperation, and training programs. These efforts encourage the dissemination of surveillance devices, but also support the government’s goals concerning international norm-making in multilateral and regional institutions. The proliferation of Chinese surveillance technology and cyber tools and the associated linkages between both state and private Chinese entities with those in other states, especially in the Global South, is a valuable component of Chinese state efforts to expand and strengthen their political and economic influence worldwide. Although individual governments purchasing Chinese digital tools have their local ambitions in mind, Beijing’s export and promotion of domestic surveillance technologies shape the adoption of these tools in the Global South. As such, investigating how Chinese actors leverage demand factors for their own aims, does not undercut the ability of other countries to detect and determine outcomes. Rather it demonstrates an interplay between Chinese state strategy and local political environments. This paper specifically focuses on key features in China’s surveillance ecosystem, while the companion to this report will focus on the key ‘pull factors’ from African countries and their significance for US interests.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Surveillance, and Public-Private Partnership
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and Global Focus
428. How the Chinese government is financing its way to becoming a techno-superpower
- Author:
- Ngor Luong
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- On October 7, the Biden administration announced a new rule to control exports of advanced-computing semiconductor chips to China. As the United States works to cut off technology and capital flows to China, Beijing’s desire to achieve technological self-sufficiency is greater than ever. In fact, during the 20th Party Congress in the following week, Xi Jinping further pledged self-reliance in technology to gain a competitive edge in the tech competition with the United States. Under Xi Jinping’s leadership, China has sought technology-focused securitization to build an innovation system that supports its broader economic, societal, and geostrategic goals. In response to the economic impact ranging from the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic to the US-China trade and technology war, the Chinese Politburo unveiled the new “dual circulation” strategy at a Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting in 2020. At its core, dual circulation aims to reduce China’s vulnerability to external shocks, and to increase the country’s self-reliance to better guard against global volatility. The Chinese government works to improve China’s innovation-building capacity by attracting foreign capital and technology know-how in order to maximize their benefits while retaining overall control of the system. Beijing is committed to becoming a state-led and self-sufficient techno-superpower. In doing so, the Chinese government is consolidating its influence in both the domestic market and overseas markets where Chinese firms are active, while simultaneously mobilizing public, private, and public-private investment vehicles to support these tech ambitions. A number of its financial mechanisms have already spanned decades, but others have emerged recently. The decade-long mechanisms have yielded mixed results, while the successes of the new ones remain to be seen. It can thus be expected that the Chinese government will continue to further assert itself in all aspects of the innovation system by providing financial support and political guidance for critical and strategic industries. Within this context, this paper examines the various forms of financing vehicles that involve a range of diverse actors to support China’s whole-of-nation approach in an effort to achieve self-reliance in technology. To conclude, this paper assesses the mechanisms’ successes and shortcomings as well as areas to monitor going forward.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Economy, Business, and Innovation
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
429. Nuclear energy in a low-carbon future: Implications for the United States and Japan
- Author:
- Stephen S. Greene
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Nuclear power has received renewed global interest as a secure source of carbon-free energy. In the context of worsening climate change and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and resultant energy market constrictions, many countries are actively pursuing conventional and advanced nuclear development, while others are canceling or postponing scheduled shutdowns. As climate change continues to impact both energy supply and demand, nuclear energy is poised to play a major role in the reliability of the future clean energy mix. Challenges to nuclear rollout will require solutions. Construction timelines remain extended, as do licensing processes. Social constraints also hinder development prospects. These potential stumbling blocks require steadfast coordination between allies like the United States and Japan, especially as other nuclear energy heavyweights like Russia and China avoid many of those same bottlenecks in their pursuit of domestic buildout and export. Despite those issues, though, nuclear energy is forecasted to play a major role in the later stages of the energy transition, in which countries look to decarbonize the more difficult parts of their economies. The advent of advanced technologies and the completion of large-scale projects portends the arrival of nuclear energy’s reliability and versatility just as the global energy sector needs it.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Nuclear Power, Carbon Emissions, and Energy
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Asia, North America, and United States of America
430. A next-generation agenda for US-ROK-Japan cooperation
- Author:
- Lauren Gilbert
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Trilateral cooperation among the United States, Japan, and South Korea has proved challenging over the years, owing largely to historical tensions. As a result, this project has sought perspectives from next-generation leaders of the three countries to define areas where targeted, flexible, and informal cooperative arrangements can provide clear mutual benefit to all. This issue brief calls for enhanced cooperation with likeminded allies and partners in order to counter shared challenges and advance mutual interests across the areas of security and defense, science and technology, and global public goods. Taken together, several essential themes emerge. Future cooperation should center on tackling shared challenges including addressing an increasingly belligerent China through proactive yet constructive methods. In the security and defense sector, the three countries should prepare for Chinese economic reprisals by forming a united front. With regard to S&T, to protect against authoritarian threats, including those presented by China’s increasing technological prowess, the three countries should utilize multilateral frameworks, like IPEF, as tools to ensure the safety and security of scientific research and data. For public goods, the trilateral partnership can diversify away from Chinese supply chains by ally-shoring and information-sharing with trusted allies. Given the historically fraught relationship between South Korea and Japan, the United States can act as a mediator to facilitate cooperation in areas of high benefit and low sensitivity. In security and defense, the trilateral partnership should address less-sensitive, shared security challenges, which include but are not limited to maritime incursions, crisis contingency planning, and cybersecurity. S&T can explore these new frontiers and safeguard free and fair principles for digital connectivity and data governance. Although public goods are less subject to domestic political pushback, the trilateral group’s actions are more likely to succeed if they are small, yet meaningful, such as implementing the democratic building blocks. Lastly, trilateral cooperation requires both top-down institutionalization and bottom-up support from the general populace. With respect to defense and security, trilateral summits at the head-of-state level must be coupled with gaining public support. For S&T, the private sector can help advance collaboration, while the public sector helps each country remain in the bounds of domestic feasibility to prevent regional conflict. With global public goods, long-lasting trilateral progress requires coupling high-level government dialogues with civil society engagements.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, International Cooperation, Science and Technology, Innovation, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Asia, South Korea, and United States of America
431. The Systemic Cycles of Accumulation in the Work of Giovani Arrighi: The 2008 Crisis, The End of US Hegemony and the Role of China
- Author:
- Analúcia Danilevicz Pereira and Igor Estima Sardo
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
- Institution:
- Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
- Abstract:
- This article seeks to discuss whether the terminal crisis of the US cycle has already occurred and whether, therefore, the World-System would experience a new SCA. As a hypothesis to the question, it is assumed that the 2008 crisis can be interpreted as the terminal crisis of the US cycle and that, after this event, a dichotomous SCA begins between the United States (US) and the People’s Republic of China (PRC), expanding the organic core of capitalism and the decision-making bodies of the world economy in the G20 (Silver; Arrighi 2011).In a broader sense, the purpose of this article is to contribute to the debate, left open after the death of Giovanni Arrighi in 2009 (Harvey 2009), about the successions of SCAs, the signal and terminal crises and the hegemonies of the World-System. This work intends to review the main works of the author The Long Twentieth Century: money, power and the origins of our time, Chaos and governance in the Modern World System and Adam Smith in Beijing4 and to analyze the context of the 2008 crisis, both its causes and consequences. for international relations
- Topic:
- Capitalism, Rivalry, World System, and Competition
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
432. China's Contribution to the Stabilization of 'Democratic' Afghanistan
- Author:
- Lukasz Jurenczyk
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
- Institution:
- Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
- Abstract:
- The People’s Republic of China and Afghanistan established diplomatic relations in 1955. In the following decades of the Cold War, however, relations between the countries were limited, which was due to the main directions of the foreign policies of both countries. Afghanistan focused on balancing the influence of the USSR and the US on its territory. China, in turn, adopted a rotational stance towards superpowers, and in the region, it strengthened political, economic and military cooperation with Pakistan (Zaborowski 2012, 142). In the 1970s, China supported the pro-communist Shu’lai Javid (Eternal Flame) party operating in Afghanistan. Members of Parcham, the pro-Moscow wing of the People’s Democratic Party of Afghanistan (PDPA), contemptuously described its members as Maoists (Levi-Sanchez 2017, 46). During the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, Beijing allowed Xinjiang Uyghur Muslim fighters to pass through the Wakhan Corridor into Afghanistan to support the mujahideen insurgency there. At that time, political relations between states were maintained only at the consular level.By February 1989, the Soviets withdrew their troops from Afghanistan, and in September 1992 the last communist president - Mohammad Najibullah (09.1987-09.1992) was overthrown. However, this did not end the civil war, as individual mujahideen groups fought for influence in the country. The war destabilized not only Afghanistan, but also the border areas of neighboring countries, including the Western border of the PRC. In 1992, the President of Afghanistan - Burhanuddin Rabbani (06.1992-09.1996) tried to normalize relations with Beijing, but due to increasing military operations in 1993 China withdrew its diplomatic representation from Kabul. When the Taliban took power in Afghanistan in 1996, the country fell into international isolation in which China participated. During the Taliban regime, Afghanistan hosted al-Qaeda, which trained around 1,000 Uyghur fighters in the camps there. In Beijing, this caused serious concern and encouraged the Chinese authorities to intensify security cooperation with Pakistan. According to leaders of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), most of the security problems in the Muslim-dominated Xinjiang province were to be caused by neighboring Afghanistan. For example, the 1997 incidents in the province, known as the Yining riots, were considered to be Taliban-inspired (Cheema 2002, 308)
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Hegemony, Democracy, and Stabilization
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, China, Middle East, Asia, North America, and United States of America
433. Starr Forum: #ViralPotentials: How South Asian Women Use TikTok
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- Working class women are using TikTok to express themselves. The app is also an avenue for fun or financial gain. Women across the region are using TikTok for activism, teaching, and learning. On this panel, academics, journalists, and activists from South Asia discuss how women have expanded their possibilities using TikTok, as well as the limitations the app poses.
- Topic:
- Mass Media, Social Media, TikTok, and Activism
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and Asia
434. Starr Forum: Xi Jinping's Third Term: Challenges for the United States
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- What are the implications of Xi Jinping's third term on US-China relations?
- Topic:
- Hegemony, Strategic Competition, Rivalry, and Competition
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
435. Microchips and Semiconductors: The U.S. Seeks Autonomy
- Author:
- Andrzej Dąbrowski
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The United States has turned to support of the domestic microchip industry in response to the increased risk of Chinese aggression against Taiwan, one of the leading producers, as well as to address disruptions in supply chains caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. A law on this passed with bipartisan consent and is intended to help finance a more resilient American sector towards global changes in manufacturing these components. Thanks to the CHIPS Act, the U.S. can reduce its dependence on microchip imports and undermine China’s ability to dominate the market.
- Topic:
- Markets, Science and Technology, Autonomy, Industry, Supply Chains, Semiconductors, and Microchips
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
436. North Korea Continues to Develop Its Nuclear Forces
- Author:
- Oskar Pietrewicz
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- North Korea is conducting further missile tests to check new types of weapons and increase the credibility of its nuclear deterrence. The adoption of a new nuclear doctrine that allows pre-emptive nuclear strikes also serves this purpose. North Korea is taking advantage of the period of tension between the U.S., Russia, and China, which prevent the UN Security Council from adopting further sanctions. In this situation, the U.S. and its allies should strengthen defence and deterrence capabilities against North Korea and set achievable goals to reduce the risk of escalation of tensions before possible negotiations.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Sanctions, and Deterrence
- Political Geography:
- Asia and North Korea
437. Japan Focuses Policy on Economic Security
- Author:
- Oskar Pietrewicz
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Japan is stepping up efforts to increase its economic security. In August, some new regulations came into force aimed at strengthening, among others, the resilience of supply chains and developing technological potential. Japan is thus responding to the challenges of China’s policy, the U.S.-China rivalry, and global technological progress. Improving economic security will require the government to cooperate with both Japanese business and international partners, including the U.S. and the EU.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Regulation, Supply Chains, and Economic Security
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, and Asia
438. China Tightens Policy towards Taiwan
- Author:
- Marcin Przychodniak
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- China treated the visit of Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan at the beginning of August as an expression of U.S. efforts to change the status quo in the region. The reaction of the Chinese authorities was calculated as a controlled escalation of tensions in the Taiwan Strait, but without the risk of direct military confrontation. Harsh rhetoric, military exercises around the island, and the limitation of dialogue with the U.S. confirmed the intention of China to take over Taiwan in the coming years. For the EU, this means the need to intensify support for Taiwan, including the development of political and economic contacts.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Territorial Disputes, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, and Asia
439. Inside China’s Techno-Security State
- Author:
- Tai Ming Cheung
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
- Abstract:
- Since coming to power, Xi Jinping has significantly elevated the importance of national security and technological innovation in the country’s overall priorities. He has invested considerable time, effort, and political capital to establish an expansive techno-security state based upon his strategic and ideological vision. This brief examines the five major methods Xi’s administration has undertaken to develop its techno-security state: developing a national security state, innovation-driven development, military strengthening, military-civilian fusion, and economic securitization.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Industrial Policy, International Security, Innovation, Strategic Competition, and Regional Security
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and Indo-Pacific
440. China and the U.S. Compete for Global Techno-Security Dominance
- Author:
- Tai Ming Cheung
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
- Abstract:
- In the struggle for global geostrategic and geoeconomic supremacy between the United States and China, the technosecurity sphere where economics, technological innovation, and national security meet has become a principal battleground. Two contrasting models are pitted against each other: China’s state-led top-down approach and the United States’ market-driven bottom-up system. Which of them will ultimately prevail will depend on how capable, robust, and adept they are in meeting the challenge of rapid and disruptive change? This brief examines the underpinnings of U.S.-China great power technosecurity competition and assesses what the countries’ different approaches imply for future techno-security rivalry.
- Topic:
- Security, Industrial Policy, Science and Technology, Strategic Competition, and Geoeconomics
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific
441. The Future of Xi’s China. Scenarios and Implications for Europe
- Author:
- Alessia Amighini
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
- Abstract:
- At the upcoming 20th Party Congress, which opens Sunday in China, Xi Jinping is expected to be confirmed as the country's Secretary General for an unprecedented third term. At a time of international instability caused by the Covid pandemic and the war in Ukraine, as well as rising competition between international superpowers, the Chinese leadership is called to increase the country's international standing, while ensuring economic growth at the domestic level. However, achieving these goals will not be without challenges. This Report analyses China’s hard road to international prestige and development. Which prospects for China's economic growth? Which obstacles to its rise at the global level? To which extent can the Party steer the country’s direction?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Development, Economy, Xi Jinping, and Instability
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, and Asia
442. Digitalisation for Sustainable Infrastructure: The Road Ahead
- Author:
- Carlo Secchi and Alessandro Gili
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
- Abstract:
- In today’s tumultuous and fast-changing times, digitalisation and technology are game changers in a wide range of sectors and have a tremendous impact on infrastructure. Roads, railways, electricity grids, aviation, and maritime transport are deeply affected by the digital and technological transition, with gains in terms of competitiveness, cost-reduction, and safety. Digitalisation is also a key tool for fostering global commitment towards sustainability, but the race for digital infrastructure is also a geopolitical one. As the world’s largest economies are starting to adopt competitive strategies, a level playing field appears far from being agreed upon. Why are digitalisation and technology the core domains of global geopolitical competition? How are they changing the way infrastructure is built, operated, and maintained? To what extent will road, rail, air, and maritime transport change by virtue of digitalisation, artificial intelligence, and the Internet of Things? How to enhance cyber protection for critical infrastructure? What are the EU’s, US’ and China's digital strategies?
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Infrastructure, European Union, Sustainability, and Digitalization
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America
443. Mixed report card: China’s influence at the United Nations
- Author:
- Courtney J. Fung and Shing-hon Lam
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- China is of growing importance to the United Nations. Beijing aims to exert influence at the world body to legitimise and disseminate its foreign policy values and interests. This report contextualises China’s growing presence at the United Nations by examining publicly available data on four metrics that gauge Beijing’s success in steering the global governance agenda. Those metrics are: funding for UN departments, programs, and initiatives; staffing of executive-level personnel positions; voting in the UN General Assembly and UN Security Council; and the use of PRC-specific discourse and language in UN-generated documentation. The United Nations has become progressively more reliant on China’s general contributions, and in turn China has used a combination of levers to elevate its position within the UN system. However, this report finds that China is still selective in its overall approach to UN participation and that efforts by the PRC do not necessarily translate into successful influence at the body. The report makes three recommendations for UN stakeholders. First, a deeper understanding must be gained of what China contributes across different UN agencies and functional areas to establish a more complete picture of its multilateral input. Second, efforts should be made to shape China’s engagement in multilateral issues, in particular those that the PRC is yet to prioritise, such as refugee management. Third, it is vital to articulate an inclusive multilateral vision for a rules-based international order that specifies under which conditions China’s contributions are embraced, rather than framing PRC input solely as a source of concern.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, United Nations, Governance, and UN Security Council
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
444. The Centrality of Karabakh in Caucasus Geopolitics
- Author:
- Svante Cornell
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Baku Dialogues
- Institution:
- ADA University
- Abstract:
- Azerbaijan’s ability to reassert its territorial integrity in the 2020 war with Armenia was a major event in the modern history of the Caucasus. This war, commonly called the Second Karabakh War, showed the continued centrality of Karabakh in the geopolitics of the Caucasus. Even more specifically, the citadel of Shusha is the center of the Caucasus: the capital of the former Karabakh Khanate, Shusha lies at the center of this conflict and thus of the region’s geopolitics. Surprisingly, very few scholars have underlined this critical point; in fact, only two studies spring immediately to mind. The first is by Elchin Amirbayov, who in 2001 wrote a report for the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center on Shusha’s “pivotal role” in any future Karabakh settlement; the second is by Faris Shafiyev, who in 2021 contributed a chapter on the “paramount significance” of Shusha in a book co‑edited for ADA University Press by the Co‑Editors of Baku Dialogues. (Amirbayov is presently an adviser to the First Vice President of Azerbaijan; Shafiyev is presently the chairman of the Center of Analysis of International Relations. Both are former Azerbaijani ambassadors.) To reiterate: Shusha has been—in military and symbolic terms—the center of the Armenia‑Azerbaijan conflict, with wide implications that have gone beyond that. For example, it was the loss of Shusha in May 1992 that spelled the end of the first post‑Soviet government of Azerbaijan. Conversely, it was the occupation of Shusha that same year that sealed the Armenia‑Russia alliance, which formed one of the major geopolitical axes of the post‑Soviet Caucasus. But it was also Azerbaijan’s retaking of Shusha that ended the Second Karabakh War. On a deeper level, the Armenia‑Azerbaijan conflict (which centered on but was not limited to Karabakh) formed the main dividing line in the Caucasus. This conflict ensured that the Caucasus was composed of states that were suspicious of each other or in conflict with each other, instead of developing statehood and sovereignty and cooperation together.
- Topic:
- Sovereignty, Geopolitics, Regionalism, and Statehood
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia, Asia, and Azerbaijan
445. Türkiye and the Russia-Ukraine War: Impact on the West, Central Asia, and the Caucasus
- Author:
- Matthew Bryza
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Baku Dialogues
- Institution:
- ADA University
- Abstract:
- During a recent webinar, I was asked to address the following question: what does Russia’s invasion of Ukraine mean for Türkiye’s approach to the Caucasus and Central Asia? At first, the question struck me as odd. Having worked on these issues since the late 1990s and now living in Istanbul, it seemed obvious to me that Türkiye’s goals in these regions have been enduring since the end of the Cold War and were not changing because of Russia’s latest invasion of Ukraine. These goals, I said, were and remain to: secure westward exports of oil and natural gas produced in the Caspian Basin; promote stability in the South Caucasus; and strengthen Türkiye’s business and cultural ties with the Turkic populations of Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan. Türkiye’s approach toward Russia in this context also remains what it has been since the Ottoman centuries: cooperate where possible but confront where necessary. Reflecting momentarily on this question, however, I realized how different Ankara’s goals appear from the perspectives of Washington, Paris, and Athens. In these and other NATO capitals, Turkish foreign policy seems to have shifted from its pursuit of “zero problems with neighbors” during the early years of the leadership of Recep Tayyip Erdogan to one of “zero neighbors without problems.” Türkiye is thus viewed within the Atlantic Alliance as a belligerent outlier, bent on violating international law to pursue the extraction of Eastern Mediterranean hydrocarbons, enabling Azerbaijan to use military force during the Second Karabakh War, and aligning in Syria more with Russia than with its own treaty allies.
- Topic:
- Security, War, Military Strategy, and Regionalism
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Asia
446. How the Conflict Over Ukraine Affects Security in the South Caucasus
- Author:
- Nargiz Gafarova
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Baku Dialogues
- Institution:
- ADA University
- Abstract:
- Against the background of the present stage of the conflict over Ukraine, the South Caucasus is experiencing perturbation. Three examples rise immediately to mind: elements of the 10 November 2020 tripartite between Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Russia that ended the Second Karabakh War statement (and the arrangements that have derived from it) are being suboptimally implemented; the leaders of Georgia’s breakaway region of South Ossetia continue to hold out the possibility to conduct a referendum on “unification” with Russia; and the uncertain outcome of the talks in Vienna to revive the Iran nuclear deal. Such and similar examples have led all three South Caucasus states (Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia) to pursue variants of a policy some call “neutrality” and others “hedging” between the parties to the conflict over Ukraine. Located at the intersection of Europe, Russia, and the Greater Middle East—and thus constituting the western part of the Silk Road region, as defined by the Editorial Statement of Baku Dialogues—the South Caucasus is one of the most important and, at the same time, one of the most potentially explosive areas bordering the West. Over the past several decades, developments within all three South Caucasus states have contributed to a general sense of insecurity within the region. These include, most obviously, ethno‑political conflicts, civil wars, and color revolutions; the lackluster development of Western‑style governance institutions; and the widely‑held perception of ongoing high levels of corruption. Even the potentially positive strategic consequences of the outcome of the Second Karabakh War—namely, the prospect for the normalization of two sets of bilateral relationships (Armenia‑Azerbaijan and Armenia‑Türkiye) and the unblocking of all economic and transport connections in the region—have been overshadowed by the ongoing restructuring of world order, manifested by the increase of geopolitical volatility and ambiguity due to the major escalation of the conflict over Ukraine whose present phase began on 24 February 2022. The effects of the Western‑led sanctions and export restrictions regime against Russia have spilled over into the South Caucasus— notwithstanding the fact that none of the region’s states have formally aligned themselves with them. This essay provides an overview of the reverberations of the conflict over Ukraine towards the South Caucasus, with a focus on its impact on the region’s political, economic, and security environment.
- Topic:
- Security, Military Strategy, Governance, and Regionalism
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Caucasus, and Asia
447. ‘Strasbourg’ in the South Caucasus: The EU’s Opportunities, Obstacles, and Incentives
- Author:
- Rick Fawn
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Baku Dialogues
- Institution:
- ADA University
- Abstract:
- Implausible might be the hyperbole of “once in a generation.” Occasionally, overstatement is legitimate and necessary. Just as the Baku‑Tbilisi‑Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline revolutionized development and income in the South Caucasus a generation ago, so too (and more) are the prospects of reconstruction in the region due to Azerbaijan’s victory in the Second Karabakh War. The possibilities for win‑win progress and growth are truly unprecedented. Hyperbolic hope faces challenges, and they need reconciliation with the unprecedented opportunities now recasting the South Caucasus— with potential betterment of the peoples and countries of the region, and even for the wider world. This essay first considers the momentous changes already underway as well as the significances they portend. It then assesses obstacles, and thereafter suggests ‘Strasbourg’ as a multi‑faceted label for contributions both to overcome them and help to realize fully the ambitions for this region. To be precise: ‘Strasbourg’ here means the physical, technological, and financial involvement of the EU in regional infrastructural development, including linkages of the South Caucasus more widely, and also as a metaphor for deep‑seated, historically truthful reconciliation. (In the Summer 2021 edition of Baku Dialogues, elements of both meanings were put forward by F. Murat Özkaleli in an article titled “Winning the Peace” and are built upon here.) This thinking takes even greater significance as Euro‑Atlantic planning will concentrate on redefining relations in this region due to conflict over Ukraine.
- Topic:
- Security, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Regionalism
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Caucasus, and Asia
448. The “One China” Issue in U.S.-China Relations
- Author:
- Zhiqun Zhu
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Baku Dialogues
- Institution:
- ADA University
- Abstract:
- Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Armenia in September 2022 caused some limited geopolitical commotion, as most readers of Baku Dialogues are keenly aware. Without downplaying its regional significance in the slightest, it was, however, her visit to Taiwan in August 2022 that made global headlines and triggered a new round of tensions in the Taiwan Strait. At the core of that controversy is the status of Taiwan. While the People’s Republic of China (PRC) condemned the visit as a violation of the “one China principle,” the U.S. government and Pelosi herself insisted that it was consistent with America’s “one China policy.” Five decades after U.S. President Richard Nixon’s historic visit to China, the Taiwan issue remains the most difficult and potentially most explosive dispute between the United States and China. While Beijing maintains that the “one China principle,” with the PRC representing all of China, is the foundation of U.S.‑China relations, Washington emphasizes that its “one China policy” treats Taiwan as a separate entity from the PRC. Meanwhile, Taipei, under the rule of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), has asserted that Taiwan is already independent and the two sides across the Taiwan Strait are not subordinate to each other. As the U.S.‑China rivalry intensifies, Taiwan has quickly re‑emerged as the biggest hot‑button issue between the two great powers. The Taiwan issue is so serious that it routinely tops the agenda of meetings and phone calls between Chinese and U.S. officials, including calls between PRC President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Joe Biden. Shortly before Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, Xi warned that “those who play with fire will get burned” during a phone call with Biden.
- Topic:
- Security, Territorial Disputes, Hegemony, Leadership, Rivalry, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, Asia, North America, and United States of America
449. The Lynchpin of the Middle Corridor
- Author:
- Anthony Kim
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Baku Dialogues
- Institution:
- ADA University
- Abstract:
- Particularly in today’s evolving geopolitical and economic reality triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Caspian region has gained greater relevance whilst acquiring renewed significance. More specifically, one of the geostrategic consequences of Putin’s ongoing assault against Ukraine and its broader implications for the global economy has been the enhanced impetus for ensuring the pragmatic and strategic utility of the “Middle Corridor” (also more formally known as the Trans‑Caspian International Transport Route, or TITR) for the Caspian region and beyond as a viable commercial transport route alternative to the long‑established northern pathway through Russia. China, which has been eager to expand its economic networks, had hoped to dominate economically the utilization of the Middle Corridor as part of an expanding BRI. But at least some of the countries in the region (and beyond) have grown increasingly uneasy about participating in it. They have viewed China as leaving many of its BRI promises unfulfilled. And they have also become more concerned that Beijing’s BRI engagement comes with too many geopolitical strings attached and can lead to debt traps. By and large, China has invested in a number of infrastructure projects in Central Asia within the framework of BRI. Most of China’s activity has taken place on the eastern shore of the Caspian. Major port, pipeline, and infrastructure projects on the Caspian’s western shore have been done without much, if any, direct Chinese involvement. Making the Middle Corridor work properly is not an easy task: it will take considerable degrees of time, financial means, and political commitment. With many economic and political challenges lingering around, by no means, the cross‑country transportation route could become the cheapest option any time soon. Nonetheless, in an increasingly raucous world where diversifying supply chains reduce risk and has become more desirable, the route could become not only fully viable but, more importantly, truly cost‑effective.
- Topic:
- Security, Development, Geopolitics, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Asia
450. Asia’s Extreme Inequality Crisis: Building back fairer after COVID-19
- Author:
- Matthew Martin
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- COVID-19 has exacerbated Asia’s crisis of extreme inequality. This is undermining growth and preventing poverty eradication. Asian governments have done almost nothing to combat this rise in inequality and are constrained in their policy choices as debt burdens grow and post-COVID austerity begins. A few Asian governments have done a lot to fight inequality during COVID-19 through equitable public services, progressive taxation and enhanced labour rights, especially for women, but most have not. This paper lays out a comprehensive set of measures that Asian governments, the Asian Development Bank and the international community could use to significantly reduce inequality, eradicate poverty and accelerate growth in Asia.
- Topic:
- Poverty, Governance, Pandemic, COVID-19, Banking, and Equality
- Political Geography:
- Asia
451. Climate finance in Asia: Assessing the state of climate finance in one of the world’s most climate vulnerable regions
- Author:
- Christopher Roy
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- Asia is particularly vulnerable to climate hazards including extreme temperatures, flooding, droughts, cyclones, and sea level rise. The most vulnerable communities need financial support to help adapt to the climate crisis – they cannot do so alone. Developed countries have promised $100 bn in climate finance to developing countries every year until 2025. This promise has not been met. Asian countries have outlined the support they require and delivering on these needs is integral to bringing climate justice to those most vulnerable to – yet least responsible for – the climate crisis. We find that the climate finance provided to Asia is woefully inadequate to support the necessary adaptation actions and vulnerable communities are suffering as a result.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, Finance, and Climate Finance
- Political Geography:
- Asia
452. Taiwan’s Local Elections: Defeat of the Ruling DPP Amidst Negative Campaigns
- Author:
- Kai-Ping Huang
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- Taiwan held “nine-in-one” local elections on November 26, 2022, and the ruling Democratic Progressive Party(DPP) lost many seats amidst negative campaigns, while the KMT emerged as the winner of the election. However, Kai-Ping Huang, an Associate Professor of Political Science at National Taiwan University, evaluates the biggest losers are voters who were not offered quality campaigns. Professor Huang defines the campaign’s major issues as Scandals of Plagiarism, Poor Quality of Infrastructure, Discredited Pandemic Control Performance and Economic Difficulties and Anti-China Campaign Backlash. In addition, she states that it is too early to say whether the KMT will have an advantage in the upcoming presidential election. The KMT must clarify its position on national identity. The Taipei voters don`t appreciate what the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) has done to the capital, and most voters do not believe that the TPP is a credible alternative to the two mainstream parties. Therefore, TPP needs to coordinate with the KMT to defeat the ruling DPP can be an option.
- Topic:
- Education, Elections, Democracy, and Political Parties
- Political Geography:
- Taiwan and Asia
453. Sustaining Democratic Unity for Ukraine’s Victory and South Korea’s Roles in This
- Author:
- Yang Gyu Kim
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- The war situation regarding Russia and Ukraine seems to be changing, as Kherson has recently returned to Ukraine. Yang Gyu Kim, a principal researcher at the East Asia Institute, considers the Russia-Ukraine war a “war of value,” and stresses that Ukraine’s victory is highly important, since it involves the restoration of global governance and has strategic implications in various regions around the world. Considering the post-war measures, Kim argues that the most contentious issue to be addressed is the genocide committed by Russian troops toward Ukraine civilians. While various reports confirm the allegations of genocide, he explains establishing its allegations and filing the case to the International Court of Justice remain challenging. Finally, Kim suggests three things that the Korean government can consider to help Ukraine: closely cooperating with the United States and Japan to sanction Russia, providing further humanitarian aid to Kyiv, and supporting Ukraine to win the legal fight in proving the war crimes as genocide.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Genocide, Democracy, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Ukraine, Eastern Europe, Asia, and South Korea
454. Russia’s Partial Mobilization: Issues Pertaining Russian Migrants in Mongolia
- Author:
- Ariunbayar Bazarvaani
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- The Kremlin recently announced a partial mobilization decree amid the continuing war between Russia and Ukraine. Along with the partial mobilization decree, the Kremlin also amended the Criminal Code that stipulates severe punishment for voluntary surrender and people who deserted from military service. While the Mongolian government holds an abstemious position towards the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Mr. Ariunbayar Bazarvaani, CEO of The Academy of Political Education, states that the non-governmental organizations in Mongolia are keeping an eye on the Russian migrants who had fled from Russia to evade mobilization. He also introduces a survey addressing Russian refugees` challenges and urges the Mongolian government to consider these issues and approach the crisis with an awareness of democracy, human rights, and freedom. Specifically, he argues that the Mongolian government should actively involve Mongolian NGOs to offer a favorable environment, including employment, and thus be recognized as a country that endorses democracy and human rights.
- Topic:
- Democracy, Migrants, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Mongolia, and Asia
455. Asia’s Push For Monetary Alternatives
- Author:
- Marcus Noland
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- For the last quarter century, Asia has been seeking greater autonomy within the existing international monetary system. While the region has had the resources to go its own way, intraregional rivalries and a reluctance to damage ties to the US and the International Monetary Fund have put a damper on regional initiatives. Now the ascendency of China offers a path toward greater regional autonomy in monetary affairs. Asia, led by China, has been playing a two-track strategy pushing for greater influence within the existing global institutions, while developing its own parallel institutions such as the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization, the Belt and Road Initiative, and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. Use of the Chinese renminbi will likely grow as a trade invoicing currency but expanded use of the renminbi as a reserve currency is more uncertain. It is possible that the dollar-centered international financial system could evolve into a multipolar system with multiple currencies playing key roles.
- Topic:
- Monetary Policy, Finance, Economy, and Investment
- Political Geography:
- China, South Asia, East Asia, Asia, and Southeast Asia
456. Strengthening Japan-ROK Relations: The Prime Time to Rebuild Relations Through Young Parliamentary Diplomacy
- Author:
- Hideshi Futori
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- South Korean President Yoon Seok-yeol began his remarkable administration by emphasizing the values of freedom and democracy, and the triangular Japan-U.S.-ROK relationship. Contrasting the previous administration, which prioritized reconciliation with North Korea, President Yoon embraced positive messages on restoring Japan-ROK relations even before taking office. On August 15, the National Liberation Day of Korea, President Yoon described Japan as a “neighbor that joins forces against the challenges that threaten freedom.” Such a posture clearly distinguishes President Yoon’s approach from that of previous South Korean administrations. Truly, even after the Yoon Administration’s approval rating began declining, Japan-ROK relations were not used politically to alleviate the pressure. One of the best takeaways from my recent visit to South Korea was Foreign Minister Park Chun’s assurance to “persistently work from a strategic perspective to improve relations with Japan, a partner that shares the universal values of freedom, human rights, and the rule of law.” Heretofore, Japan has not been able to capitalize on the precious opportunities it has been afforded to mend ties with Korea. Instead, Japan continues to take a hardline approach toward South Korea and is unable to flexibly respond, instead prioritizing Japan’s self-image, as suggested by the export control regulations toward South Korea. Since 2019, the Japanese government has tightened control regulations on exports of semiconductor materials to South Korea in response to potential seizures of Japanese assets as reparations for forced labor claims related to Japan’s 1910-1945 colonial rule of the Korean Peninsula. I believe Japan should consider changing its policies toward South Korea as South Korea has proactively improved its policies in response to Japan’s request, nonetheless, the effects have faded. From the perspective of economic security, it is also necessary to diversify Japan’s supply chain and strengthen trilateral cooperation between Japan, the United States, and South Korea. Similar voices have been raised not only from South Korea but also by Japanese experts.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Parliament
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Asia, and South Korea
457. After Hegemony: Japan’s role and dilemma in maintaining the rules-based order
- Author:
- Yu Inagaki
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- The phrase “rules-based order” has recently become a recurring theme in the Japan-US alliance . This is based on the recognition that the liberal international order (LIO)—which the United States built and maintained, and that Japan has significantly benefited from—is now being challenged. While the war in Ukraine has heightened the sense of crisis over global power dynamics, China has been considered the main threat to the LIO. The United States has identified China as not just a security threat but a “ most consequential strategic competitor and the pacing challenge ,” and Japan has come to view the current international environment from a larger perspective, international order. In fact, Japan has expected to play a leading role in maintaining the LIO as US international engagement weakened under the Trump administration. However, is it possible for Japan, a constrained middle power, to maintain the existing order in the face of a declining hegemon and rising challengers? This raises a classic question in international relations: What will happen to the international order after hegemony; and what can and will Japan, occupying a particular place and role in the international system, be able and willing to do regarding international order?
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Politics, Hegemony, and International Order
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
458. Taiwan Matters for America/America Matters for Taiwan
- Author:
- East-West Center
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- The inaugural edition of Taiwan Matters for America/America Matters for Taiwan, part of the Asia Matters for America initiative, maps the trade, investment, employment, business, diplomacy, security, education, tourism, and people-to-people connections between the United States and the Taiwan at the national, state, and local levels. This publication and the AsiaMattersforAmerica.org website are resources for understanding the robust and dynamic US-Indo-Pacific relationship.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Climate Change, Economics, Education, Environment, Politics, Science and Technology, Governance, Culture, Population, and Travel
- Political Geography:
- Taiwan and Asia
459. New Opportunities for the United States-Kingdom of Thailand Alliance in the Indo-Pacific
- Author:
- Lance D. Jackson
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- In March 2022, the East-West Center in Washington (EWCW), in collaboration with the Royal Thai Embassy, Washington, DC, convened a two-day seminar in which experts from Thailand and the United States discussed issues and opportunities for the US-Thailand alliance. The workshop included a diverse array of discussants hailing from government, military, academic, think tank, and private sector backgrounds. This report, which adheres to the “Chatham House Rule” under which observations referred to in the report are not attributed to any individual participant, is a summary of the group discussions and the key themes from the seminar. The recent signing of the United States-Thailand Communique on Strategic Alliance and Partnership and a memorandum of understanding (MOU) focused on promoting supply chain resilience on July 10, 2022, highlight the pertinence of this report and the associated seminar. The topics detailed in this report aligned with many of the pressing issues addressed in the Communique and MOU, including expanding law enforcement cooperation, deepening cybersecurity collaboration, supporting resilient transportation corridors, advancing military modernization, and catalyzing Thailand’s bio-circular-green (BCG) economy. The report also covered topics and key themes from a series of jointly produced public webinars and an Asia Pacific Bulletin series of policy briefs on US-Thai affairs.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Climate Change, Economics, Education, Environment, Politics, Science and Technology, Governance, Population, Leadership, Public Health, and Travel
- Political Geography:
- Asia, North America, Thailand, Southeast Asia, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific
460. Ending the Destructive Sino-U.S. Interaction Over Taiwan: A Call for Mutual Reassurance
- Author:
- Michael D. Swaine
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
- Abstract:
- Recent years have witnessed steadily rising hostility and suspicion between the United States and China over each other’s approach vis-à-vis Taiwan. The unprecedentedly aggressive Chinese military exercises in response to U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taipei this year indicated that the continued downward spiral in Sino-American relations over Taiwan would increasingly expose Washington and Beijing to risks of repeated crises with a potential of a dangerous armed conflict. This brief lays out the policy steps necessary to reverse this spiral of escalation.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Crisis Management, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America
461. The Worsening Taiwan Imbroglio: An Urgent Need for Effective Crisis Management
- Author:
- Michael D. Swaine
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
- Abstract:
- A severe diplomatic or military crisis over Taiwan is the issue that poses the greatest risk of war between the United States and China. Worryingly, the risk has increased in recent years with the deepening Sino-American rivalry amid intensifying conflicts of interest vis–à–vis Taiwan. Washington and Beijing must recognize the cycle of confrontational deterrence that drives it and take urgent measures to stop it. If the United States and China fail to take measures of mutual reassurance, the two countries will continue on the path to confrontation over Taiwan. This is particularly likely if their overall bilateral relationship continues to deteriorate. While acknowledging the likelihood of such a dangerous scenario, this brief affirms the need to improve crisis management on the Taiwan issue, outlines the major problems and limits of existing crisis management efforts, and offers concrete recommendations for improving the ability of both Washington and Beijing to more effectively manage future crises over Taiwan, as well as Sino-American crises in general.1
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Crisis Management
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America
462. A Restraint Recipe for America’s Asian Alliances and Security Partnerships
- Author:
- Michael D. Swaine and Sarang Shidore
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
- Abstract:
- As Sino–American relations deteriorate, risks of conflict between Washington and Beijing are growing. A major war would be terrible for both the United States and the region while setting back critical goals, like the fight to stop climate change. Avoiding a war while safeguarding vital U.S. interests ought to be a priority. But while many in the United States want to strengthen alliance structures as a means of deterring China and to make Taiwan a de facto security ally, those who espouse a strategy of Restraint believe this approach endangers Americans and undermines their prosperity. A policy of Restraint is predicated on the view that alliances are not ends in themselves, but a means of bolstering U.S. security. This brief analyzes the utility of America’s Asian alliances and security partnerships from a Restraint perspective under two scenarios. The first and preferred scenario is that of the United States and China walking back from their current march toward confrontation to achieve a stable, if still significantly competitive, relationship. The second and more likely scenario is a much sharper and sustained rivalry with China becoming a regionally strong, possibly in many ways dominant, power.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Partnerships, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, East Asia, Asia, and United States of America
463. China’s Infrastructure Projects in the Middle East: Lessons from China’s Engagement Elsewhere
- Author:
- Dominika Urhová
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In our latest issue of Iqtisadi, Ms. Dominika Urhova discusses the economic strategy and role of China in the Middle East, and analyzes the implications of China's growing influence in the region.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Development, Economics, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Strategic Engagement
- Political Geography:
- China, Middle East, and Asia
464. US Arms Sales Reveal Discord in Taiwan's Defense Strategy
- Author:
- Ethan Kessler
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Chicago Council on Global Affairs
- Abstract:
- Washington has started selling arms that serve a "porcupine" defense strategy to Taiwan. Whether Taipei fully embraces this new approach remains to be seen. Taiwan, claimed by China as a rogue province and armed by the United States, is at a crossroads. Should it continue buying big-ticket US arms, such as advanced fighter jets and tanks, to counter Chinese forces in case of a blockade or invasion? Taipei’s longstanding conventional strategy, which calls for these kinds of arms, views the ambiguous US defense commitment as concerning. Since Washington may not intervene against a Chinese attack, conventionalists want to hold on to Taiwan’s traditional, long-range weapons. Conventionalists also claim that buying big-ticket arms strengthens Washington’s political commitment to Taiwan. However, officials and experts increasingly see another strategy as prudent. Recent Chinese economic growth and military modernization have greatly enhanced Beijing’s capabilities, to the point that many believe Taiwan could not hold out alone against a Chinese invasion. Reformers thus argue that Taiwan needs to start building its forces around small, easily distributed weapons such as mobile anti-ship missiles and patrol boats and make greater investments in reserve forces and territorial defense. This “porcupine” defense strategy can theoretically buy more time for US forces to arrive in a war. The fate of Taiwan’s military strategy, which also depends greatly on political relations between Beijing, Taipei, and Washington, will help determine the strength of deterrence in the Taiwan Strait. A breakdown in this deterrence could lead to US-China war. The United States not only influences Taiwan’s strategy, but has a great stake in its future.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Military Affairs, Budget, Defense Spending, and Arms Sales
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, Asia, North America, and United States of America
465. China Maritime Report No. 24: Incubators of Sea Power: Vessel Training Centers and the Modernization of the PLAN Surface Fleet
- Author:
- Ryan D. Martinson
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
- Abstract:
- The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is building modern surface combatants faster than any other navy in the world. Before these new ships can be deployed, however, their crews must learn how to effectively operate them across the range of missions for which they were designed. In the PLAN, this “basic training” largely occurs at specialized organizations called Vessel Training Centers (VTCs). Since their creation in 1980, VTCs have played a key role in generating combat power for the fleet. But as China’s naval ambitions have grown, the VTCs have been forced to adapt. Since the early 2000s, and especially since 2012, they have faced tremendous pressure to keep pace with the rapid expansion and modernization of the PLAN surface fleet and its growing mission set, improve the standards and quality of vessel training, and uphold the integrity of training evaluations. This report argues that the PLAN’s VTCs have generally risen to the challenge, ensuring that new and recently-repaired ships can quickly reach operational units in a fairly high state of readiness.
- Topic:
- Armed Forces, Military Affairs, Maritime, Seapower, and People's Liberation Army (PLA)
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
466. INDIA-CHINA STRATEGIC COMPETITION IN THE INDIAN OCEAN
- Author:
- Chuong Nguyen, Binh Nguyen, Hiep Tran, and Mi Le
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
- Institution:
- Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
- Abstract:
- The XXI is considered by major countries in the Asia-Pacific region as ‘the century of sea and ocean’ and is accompanied by fierce competition among the nations to gain interest in the sea regions. On the basis that previously only considered the competition for military objectives, geostrategic bases and traffic channels through the straits, nowadays, countries worldwide have stepped up the competition for economic interests and marine resources. The development of military power and the competitive activities for resources at sea show clear the tendency to use the sea to contain the continent. In that context, the Indian Ocean, as the world’s third largest ocean, has an important geographic location and rich and diverse natural resources; the arterial sea route is gradually becoming the center of new world geopolitics and an important area in the strategic competition between two ‘Asian giants’ - India and China. The competition between these countries in the Indian Ocean is growing and profoundly impacts the region’s stability and security. This article focuses on the position and important role of the Indian Ocean in the policies of India and China, the fierce competition between the two countries in nearly two decades of the XXI century.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Military Affairs, Geopolitics, and Strategic Competition
- Political Geography:
- China, India, Asia, and Indian Ocean
467. World Economy Winter 2022: Strong headwinds for global economic activity
- Author:
- Klaus-Jurgen Gern, Stefan Kooths, Ulrich Stolzenburg, Jan Reents, and Nils Sonnenberg
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
- Abstract:
- Global growth has decelerated over the course of the year under the impact of high energy prices and great uncertainty. Monetary policy, which is being tightened very quickly in view of high inflationary pressure across the board, is now also putting a drag on economic activity. Overall, production remained on an upward trend into the fall, with impetus coming from easing supply bottlenecks and the continuing normalization of activity in those sectors of the economy particularly affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. Towards the end of the year, however, economic momentum weakened noticeably further. The major advanced economies in particular are currently facing a period of weak economic activity despite considerable fiscal support measures. At the same time, the problems for the Chinese economy remain significant. While global output (measured on a purchasing power parity basis) at 3.2 percent is expected to grow by 0.3 percentage points more this year than expected in September, we continue to forecast an increase of only 2.2 percent next year. For 2024, our expectation has even been reduced slightly to 3.2 percent, mainly because we do expect the US economy to recover slowly. Inflation is likely to have peaked and is expected to slow significantly over the forecast horizon thanks to lower commodity prices and easing economic tensions. However, underlying inflation is not likely to return to target levels until the end of the forecast period.
- Topic:
- Monetary Policy, Economy, Business, COVID-19, and Emerging Economies
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America
468. World Economy Autumn 2022: Global growth falters
- Author:
- Klaus-Jurgen Gern, Stefan Kooths, Ulrich Stolzenburg, Jan Reents, and Nils Sonnenberg
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
- Abstract:
- In spring 2022, world economic growth came to a standstill amid high inflation, persistent supply bottlenecks and elevated uncertainty. In many countries real wages are declining significantly dampening private consumption even though extra savings accumulated during the pandemic are still available to mitigate the adverse impact to some extent. At the same time financial conditions have also deteriorated as central banks tightened their policies. In China, the strict zero-covid policy and problems in the real estate sector are slowing economic activity. Against this backdrop, the outlook for the global economy has deteriorated further. We have, again, lowered our forecast and are now expecting global output to increase by only 2.9 percent this year and 2.2 percent next year (calculated on a purchasing power parity basis). The forecast assumes that commodity prices will gradually decline in line with forward prices, which will over time reduce the upward pressure on prices and provides the foundations for an economic upturn in 2024. However, the pass-through of higher commodity prices into consumer prices is probably not yet complete and wage increases are likely to intensify in many countries. Consequently, underlying inflation is likely to remain higher than in the years before the Covid crisis and remain above central bank targets over the forecast horizon.
- Topic:
- Monetary Policy, Business, COVID-19, Zero-COVID, Emerging Economies, and Advanced Economies
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America
469. Economic Zones and Local Income Inequality: Evidence from Indonesia
- Author:
- Cecília Hornok and Sidan Raeskyesa
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
- Abstract:
- Economic zones can be powerful drivers of economic growth in developing countries. However, less is known about their distributional impact on the local society. This paper provides empirical evidence from Indonesian provinces on the relationship between economic zones and within-province income inequality. Estimates from panel regressions and synthetic control case studies suggest that this relationship is positive overall. The estimated rise in income inequality after a zone opens is relatively small on average and may be short-lived. However, the average estimate masks large regional differences, which suggests that the inequality implications of economic zone policies depend on local conditions. One explanation for the rise in inequality is that the unskilled population benefits disproportionately less from the policy. As a remedy, we propose education and training programs that target the poor and unskilled and in which companies also actively participate.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, Economic Growth, and Income Distribution
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia, Asia, and Southeast Asia
470. Tracking Chinese Aid through China Customs: Darlings and Orphans after the COVID-19 Outbreak
- Author:
- Andreas Fuchs, Lennart Kaplan, Krisztina Kis-Katos, Sebastian Schmidt, Felix Turbanisch, and Feicheng Wang
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
- Abstract:
- Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, China's mask and vaccine diplomacy have been widely discussed, but the debate relies on a few stylized data points. This article introduces a systematic way to measure China's foreign aid in almost real-time through official customs records of exported aid goods. Our results show significant shifts in China's aid after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. First, medical aid skyrocketed after the outbreak. It was initially dominated by face masks and other protective equipment and later by vaccines. This came at the expense of non-medical aid, which was 16.3 percent below its pre-pandemic level. Second, China's aid became global, clearly extending beyond the Global South. Third, in the aftermath of the initial outbreak in March 2020, China's aid became less responsive to both recipient need and political friendship, which can be mainly attributed to the rise of aid through non-government sources. However, in the vaccine diplomacy period of 2021, economic needs and political factors have regained their original importance.
- Topic:
- Development, Diplomacy, Public Health, Vaccine, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
471. Brothers in arms: The value of coalitions in sanctions regimes
- Author:
- Sonali Chowdhry, Julian Hinz, Katrin Kamin, and Joschka Wanner
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
- Abstract:
- This paper examines the impact of coalitions on the economic costs of the 2012 Iran and 2014 Russia sanctions. By estimating and simulating a quantitative general equilibrium trade model under different coalition set-ups, we (i) dissect welfare losses for sanction-senders and target; (ii) compare prospective coalition partners and; (iii) provide bounds for the sanctions potential — the maximum welfare change attainable — when sanctions are scaled vertically, i.e. across sectors up to an embargo, or horizontally, i.e. across countries up to a global regime. To gauge the significance of simulation outcomes, we implement a Bayesian bootstrap procedure that generates confidence bands. We find that the implemented measures against Iran and Russia inflicted considerable economic harm, yielding 32 – 37% of the vertical sanctions potential. Our key finding is that coalitions lower the average welfare loss incurred from sanctions relative to unilateral implementation. They also increase the welfare loss imposed on Iran and Russia. Adding China to the coalition further amplifies the welfare loss by 79% for Iran and 22% for Russia. Finally, we quantify transfers that would equalize losses across coalition members. These hypothetical transfers can be seen as a sanctions-equivalent of NATO spending goals and provide a measure of the relative burden borne by coalition countries.
- Topic:
- Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Sanctions, Alliance, and Embargo
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America
472. Filling the Geopolitical Void in Central Asia
- Author:
- Bruce Pannier
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute
- Abstract:
- A new era in foreign policy is starting for the five Central Asian states—Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan—in which the role of former colonial master Russia is significantly diminished as Moscow concentrates its attention and resources on the debacle it created when it started a war on Ukraine. China also has considerable influence in Central Asia, but China has not indicated it is willing to fill the vacuums Russia is leaving in Central Asia’s security, finances, or trade. The Central Asian states of necessity are seeking new partners, but it is possible that as the Central Asian states develop new foreign partnerships, they will create new divisions regionally, and the case of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan is possibly an example of what is come for Central Asia.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Finance, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Central Asia, Eurasia, Kazakhstan, Asia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan
473. Putin Is Doing Xi’s Dirty Work (and the West Is Helping Him)
- Author:
- William R. Spiegelberger
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute
- Abstract:
- Vladimir Putin’s diplomatic turn to China has been a disappointment for good reason: Beijing is more interested in advancing its own anti-Western interests than in helping Moscow. The more fruitful and natural partnership would be between Russia and the West, since both face a common threat from China and the infrastructure for mutual prosperity is already in place. The main impediment to improved Russian-Western relations is the continued rule of Putin, who is increasingly doing China’s bidding at Russia’s expense.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, Xi Jinping, and Vladimir Putin
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Eurasia, and Asia
474. Cyber Posture Trends in China, Russia, the United States and the European Union
- Author:
- Lora Saalman, Fei Su, and Larisa Saveleva Dovgal
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
- Abstract:
- Current understanding of the cyber postures of China, Russia, the United States and the European Union (EU) merits re-evaluation. It is often assumed that China and Russia are aligned, yet this is not always the case. Unlike Russia, which has an ongoing focus on information security, China’s official documents incorporate both information security and cybersecurity concerns that are similar to those of the EU and the USA. Moreover, while often paired, the EU and the USA have differing regulatory structures in cyberspace. Further, both actors increasingly mirror Chinese and Russian concerns about the impact of information warfare on domestic stability. By examining key trends in each actor’s cyber posture, this SIPRI Research Report identifies points of convergence and divergence. Its conclusions will inform a broader SIPRI project that maps cyber posture trajectories and explores trilateral cyber dynamics among China, Russia and the USA to assist the EU in navigating future cyber escalation and enhancing global cyber stability.
- Topic:
- European Union, Cybersecurity, Geopolitics, Regulation, and Information Security
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Eurasia, Asia, and United States of America
475. How to Engage and Prevail in Political Warfare against China
- Author:
- John Lee
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Hudson Institute
- Abstract:
- In his report to the Twentieth National Congress of the Communist Party in October, Xi Jinping praised the progress made over the past decade under his leadership to advance the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation domestically and internationally. According to Xi, this is taking place in an era of “momentous changes of a like not seen in a century [and which] are accelerating across the world.”1 For Xi, these “great changes” comprise “a significant shift [that] is taking place in the international balance of power, presenting China with new strategic opportunities in pursuing development.”2 A pillar of Xi’s plan to realize the rejuvenation of China and to emerge as the preeminent nation in the region and beyond is to shrink the strategic, military, economic, political, and normative ground in the region on which the United States can sustain, build, and demonstrate its power and influence. This is because China knows there is no material or nonmaterial counterbalance without the US. Additionally, the more China can weaken the resolve of US allies and other countries to support American-led initiatives to counter China and the credibility of the US-led alliance system, the smaller and weaker the ground for Washington to maintain its footholds in distant lands becomes, and the closer China draws to its goal of preeminence. The Chinese plan relies on building unmatched “comprehensive national power,” or CNP, which China can use to seduce, compel, or coerce other nations.3 CNP has material and nonmaterial elements. Regarding the latter, Beijing places enormous emphasis on political warfare in the form of information and influence operations. The first three memos in this series on Chinese political warfare argue that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) makes no distinction between wartime and peacetime and believes it is engaged in a perpetual “struggle” against the West.4 Regarding political warfare, the previous memos noted that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) plays a central and often dominant role in leading doctrine and operations when it comes to informational and influence warfare.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
476. Partnerships for Policy Transfer: How Brazil and China Engage in Triangular Cooperation with the United Nations
- Author:
- Laura Trajber Waisbich and Sebastian Haug
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
- Abstract:
- This paper offers a comparative analysis of Brazilian and Chinese partnerships with the United Nations (UN) as a mechanism and channel for policy transfer. In international policy travel flows, China and Brazil currently hold privileged places as hubs from which development-related policies travel and through which they circulate. Both countries have invested in systematising their development experience and transferring development policies within their regions and beyond – often through triangular cooperation, i.e. South–South cooperation supported by third actors such as UN entities. So far, however, this variegated engagement has remained under the radar of scholarly attention. To address this gap, we examine 35 policy transfer partnerships – 17 for Brazil and 18 for China – forged with different parts of the UN system over the last two decades. In order to offer a first systematic account of partnership trajectories, we provide an overview of partnership types (namely projects, programmes and policy centres) and transfer dimensions (including the policies themselves, transfer agents and governance arrangements). Our comparative mapping presents an evolving landscape: while Brazil was first in institutionalising robust policy transfer partnerships with numerous UN entities and then slowed down, China started more cautiously but has significantly expanded its collaboration with the UN system since 2015. The partnerships analysed cover a substantial range of sectors, with a particular focus – for both Brazil and China – on agricultural policies. While Brazilian partnerships with the UN primarily engage with linkages between agriculture and social protection, however, China–UN partnerships focus more on productivity and market linkages. As the first comprehensive mapping and comparative analysis of Brazilian and Chinese policy transfer partnerships with the UN, this paper contributes to a better understanding of (triangular) cooperation schemes between international organisations and their member states, as well as debates about how policies deemed as successful travel around the globe.
- Topic:
- Development, International Cooperation, United Nations, and Partnerships
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, Brazil, and South America
477. How Does Urban Rail Development in China and India Enable Technological Upgrading?
- Author:
- Emmanuel Theodore Asimeng and Tilman Altenburg
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
- Abstract:
- The socioeconomic wellbeing of urban areas depends on a well-functioning transportation system that makes it easier for people to access goods and services. Whereas most urban areas in emerging economies are expanding in size and human population, high motorisation and inadequate public transport services have resulted in congestion, traffic accidents and increasing transport-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Urban rail development can help address the current transportation problem because trains can move a large number of people at high speed, provide reliable services, contribute to lower GHGs and have a low accident rate. However, urban rail is expensive and requires many technical and technological capabilities often unavailable in emerging economies because they are technology latecomers. This paper examines how two emerging economies, China and India, have adopted industrial policies to develop local capabilities for urban rail technology. The paper shows how the Chinese government has moved from purchasing urban rail technology from multinational companies (MNCs) to the current situation where it has developed local capabilities, owns rail technology patents and competes with the same MNCs on the international market. The paper also demonstrates how India is gradually improving the local manufacturing of rail subsystems as opposed to importation. Overall, the paper suggests a pathway to industrial policy adoption that demonstrates how emerging economies can catch up with urban rail technology development to address their local transportation needs.
- Topic:
- Development, Industrial Policy, Science and Technology, Multinational Corporations, Urban, and Railways
- Political Geography:
- China, India, and Asia
478. Green Jobs in Cities: Challenges and Opportunities in African and Asian Intermediary Cities
- Author:
- Wolfgang Scholz and Michael Fink
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
- Abstract:
- Cities account for approximately 70 per cent of global energy consumption and about 75 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions due to the density of economic activities and infrastructure and their often path-dependent development patterns. Cities adopting a green transformation process can minimise their environmental impact and maximise opportunities to improve and support the natural environment. Topics to address are energy efficiency and reduction of non-renewable energy sources to reduce their carbon footprint; actively support waste reduction and management; establish green and resilient infrastructure; encourage nature-based solutions; enhance the efficiency of new buildings; encourage low-carbon transport; and improve water cycle management. Also, these fields will lead to a greener urban economy, create more green jobs – or respectively change jobs towards becoming green – and deliver improved quality of life outcomes for residents. The aim of this discussion paper is to address the challenges, opportunities and fields of actions – respectively interventions – of these economic, but also social transformations on the job market on the level of cities. The regional focus is on African and Asian cities in developing countries. A special focus is on intermediary cities with between 1 to 5 million inhabitants since they constitute the fastest-growing urban areas today and more importantly, they have both the capacity and expertise to guide an economic transformation while still being, at the same time, not too large to be managed effectively, as outlined above. The fields of action for cities in a transformation towards a green economy, thereby creating green jobs, can be clustered into: • land use planning • green buildings and construction • sustainable mobility and urban transport • green and blue urban infrastructure services with nature-based solutions (NBSs) as a cross-cutting issue • renewable energy and energy efficiency The employment effects of a transformation towards a green economy play an important role. The opportunities for cities in Africa and Asia to create green jobs under their own local mandates of decision-making in urban planning and within their own service providers, and/or to support the “greening” of the private sector, will obviously create more green jobs, and respectively shift current jobs into green jobs.
- Topic:
- Development, Cities, Carbon Emissions, Opportunity, Energy, and Green Jobs
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Asia
479. Where is China heading?
- Author:
- Jean-Pierre Cabestan
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
- Abstract:
- China is ambitious, it is making this known and everyone is beginning to realise it. So much so that today a growing number of observers fear that it will take greater risks to achieve its objectives and fall into the famous "Thucydides' trap"; in short, that it will launch into a war, notably around Taiwan, which would inevitably involve the United States. Isn't its goal to supplant America and become the world's leading power? If, by 2028 or 2030, the Chinese economy were to exceed the US economy in terms of GDP, it is doubtful that it will succeed in removing the US from its pedestal. This is likely to be lower and more contested. But rather than a power transition, the world is witnessing the emergence of new, permanently asymmetrical bipolarity and, no doubt, a new Cold War[1].
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Economy, and Multipolarity
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
480. Global Health Security COVID-19 and Its Impacts – Vaccine Resilience: Next Stage in ASEAN’s War?
- Author:
- Jose M. L. Montesclaros
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- The next stage in ASEAN’s COVID-19 war lies in partnerships to establish local vaccine manufacturing centres within member states, to strengthen the region’s “vaccine resilience”.
- Topic:
- Public Health, Vaccine, Resilience, COVID-19, and Medicine
- Political Geography:
- Asia and ASEAN
481. Women in AI: Is There a Singapore Model?
- Author:
- Tamara Nair
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- The 4ᵗʰ Industrial Revolution introduced Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence (AI) to the forefront and very soon, if not already, AI will be embedded in almost all spheres of our lives. While AI technologies like Alexa and Siri have female names and voices, there are very few women involved in developing AI products and services. Is there a model Singapore can offer?
- Topic:
- Industrial Policy, Artificial Intelligence, Industrialization, Emerging Technology, and Gender
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Singapore
482. Reviving Nuclear Power: Is the Philippines Ready?
- Author:
- Julius Caesar Trajano
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- Philippine President Duterte has signed an executive order to include nuclear power in the country’s energy mix. However, there are critical preparatory issues that need to be resolved to enhance the country’s nuclear energy development.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Science and Technology, Nuclear Power, and Nuclear Energy
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Philippines
483. Invasion of Ukraine – Asia’s Food Security in Trouble?
- Author:
- Paul Teng and Genevieve Donnellon-May
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- The impact of the Ukraine-Russia conflict on food security in many countries demonstrates how inter-linked the global food system has become. Ripple effects from reduced wheat and fertiliser exports are already causing wheat shortages in the Middle East and fertiliser shortages elsewhere. However, the crisis also offers other major agricultural exporting countries opportunities.
- Topic:
- Security, Agriculture, Food, Food Security, and Malnutrition
- Political Geography:
- Asia
484. India’s Approach to Food Security Resilience Amid COVID-19: Relevance to ASEAN?
- Author:
- Jose M. L. Montesclaros
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- The International Monetary Fund recently lauded India’s feat of minimising the COVID-19 pandemic’s impacts on extreme poverty, owing to its food subsidy policies; in contrast, more than 4.7 million people fell into extreme poverty among ASEAN member states (AMS). This NTS Insight highlights relevant aspects of India’s food security approaches which allowed it to provide encompassing food subsidies amidst disruptions. It then assesses their relevance to AMS in facing future disruptions. India’s feat built on its digital identity and digital ration card systems, to minimise leakages in subsidised food. These are supported by India’s food procurement and distribution/stockpile management systems for achieving stockpile targets. Its government guarantees to purchase whatever crops farmers produce, at a pre-announced price. On surface, India’s feat seems to contradict AMS’ purely laissez-faire approach of leaving supply outcomes to the market. In reality, India’s farmers are able to sell their crops in open markets, and government guarantees only supplement the market, to ensure sufficient food stocks and reduce reliance on higher-priced imported crops. As such, it is worth exploring whether more can be done in improving AMS’ resilience amidst growing food supply chain instability, including strengthening systems for digital identity, distribution, stockpile management and procurement.
- Topic:
- Food Security, Pandemic, Resilience, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Asia and ASEAN
485. India’s Food Security Resilience: Some Tips for ASEAN?
- Author:
- Jose M. L. Montesclaros
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- The IMF recently lauded India’s food subsidies in helping minimise COVID-19’s impacts on food and economic insecurity. What are the lessons for ASEAN member states, where extreme poverty increased by 4.7 million amid the pandemic?
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, Food, Food Security, Pandemic, and Resilience
- Political Geography:
- Asia and ASEAN
486. Ukraine War and Food Security: How Should ASEAN Respond?
- Author:
- Jose M. L. Montesclaros and Mely Caballero-Anthony
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- ASEAN should come together and assess what regional mechanisms it can leverage in addressing the looming threat of food trade protectionism within the region, amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, Conflict, Violence, Regionalism, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Asia, and ASEAN
487. Global Food Insecurity – Animal Feed and Meat: Asia’s Looming Food Crisis
- Author:
- Genevieve Donnellon-May and Paul Teng
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- The impact of the Russia-Ukraine War on the global food situation continues to reverberate around the world, including in Asia. The worst is yet to come as exports of vital livestock feed from Russia and Ukraine are severely affected, causing spikes in retail meat prices, from pork to chicken and fish. Can Asia cope?
- Topic:
- Food, Food Security, Food Crisis, Food Safety, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Asia
488. Growing Food Insecurity – Asia’s Huge Appetite for Fish: Can It Be Met?
- Author:
- Paul Teng and Genevieve Donnellon-May
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- The global demand for fish continues to skyrocket, led by Asian consumers, notably in China. There is now a global crisis in fisheries caused by over-fishing and climate change. Aquaculture (fish farming) is expected to plug this gap and is projected to be the primary source by 2030.
- Topic:
- Food, Food Security, Maritime, Fishing, and Consumerism
- Political Geography:
- Asia
489. Planetary Health: Reflections from Asia
- Author:
- Margareth Sembiring
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- Planetary Health is a concept that advocates the care of the planet for human own survivability. It underscores the health implications of environmental degradation brought about by human activities and development progress, and calls for a systemic approach that considers and addresses socio-environmental trade-offs of certain policy and/or economic objectives. In view of multiple crises that have been happening in recent years – from the COVID-19 pandemic to the war in Ukraine – which have further negatively affected the environment, understanding how Planetary Health can be applied to address continuing environmental decline is critical. Planetary Health is a relatively new term in Asia. Drawing from the discussions in the 6th NTS-Asia Consortium Annual Conference in April 2022, this NTS Insight maps the different ways Indonesia, India, Bangladesh, Japan, and China engage Planetary Health in their specific contexts. The interpretations of the concept are likely to influence the trajectory of its implementation.
- Topic:
- Health, International Cooperation, Recovery, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Asia
490. Growing Food Insecurity – Global Water Crisis: Options for Food Security
- Author:
- Paul Teng and Genevieve Donnellon-May
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- Water is indispensable for agriculture. Farming globally, on which millions depend for livelihood, has become more volatile due to water insecurity. It has worsened due to climate change-induced droughts and floods, which have grown in intensity and frequency worldwide. In Asia, the growing water insecurity has caused unpredictable food production, requiring enormous imports from other regions.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Water, Food, Inequality, and Food Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Asia
491. Global Food Insecurity – Food Import: Reducing ASEAN’s Dependency
- Author:
- Paul Teng
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- The current food insecurity caused by the three Cs — COVID-19 pandemic, climate change and conflicts — has highlighted the reliance of many ASEAN states on imported staple food and feed. ASEAN needs to seriously re-examine its priorities to reduce import dependency.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Regional Cooperation, Food, Food Security, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Asia and ASEAN
492. Planetary health: An alternative framework for disaster governance in ASEAN?
- Author:
- S. Nanthini and Lina Gong
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the search for a better way of managing human activities and their environmental impact thereby zeroing in on the specific actions needed to maintain a balance for Planet Earth’s sustainability.
- Topic:
- Environment, Health, International Cooperation, Governance, Sustainability, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Asia and ASEAN
493. Expanding the Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Technology and Climate Change Adaptation: Opportunities and Challenges
- Author:
- Julius Caesar Trajano
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- While ongoing debates on the critical role of nuclear power plants in achieving the goals established in the 2015 Paris Agreement remain unsettled, the peaceful applications of nuclear technology in climate change adaptation have been expanding in recent years. The peaceful uses of nuclear technology cannot be excluded from innovative approaches to addressing the world’s most pressing and complex challenge─ climate change. This NTS Insight examines how nuclear technology can be deployed to strengthen climate adaptation measures and presents case studies from several Southeast Asian countries that have nuclear research and scientific programmes. Nuclear technology is being utilised in adopting climate-smart agriculture, modernising water management, enhancing greenhouse gas emissions analysis, and combatting plastic pollution. This Insight offers agendas for action by Southeast Asian countries to address key challenges to expanding the role of nuclear technology in addressing climate change.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Science and Technology, Nuclear Power, and Green Transition
- Political Geography:
- Asia
494. Next Steps for Disaster Resilience in ASEAN
- Author:
- Alistair D B Cook and Christopher Chen
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- The challenges posed in responding to natural hazards during the global COVID-19 pandemic were felt across Southeast Asia. As travel restrictions and supply chain disruptions ease up, it is time to revaluate disaster management and not simply revert to old ways.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, Resilience, COVID-19, and Disaster Management
- Political Geography:
- Asia and ASEAN
495. ndonesia’s 2060 Net-Zero Ambition: The Challenges Ahead
- Author:
- Margareth Sembiring
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- Recent developments in Indonesia’s sustainability outlook that includes a net-zero goal by 2060 are pointing to stronger commitments to reducing carbon emissions from energy use. At the same time, short- to medium-term realities, and a lack of public trust may derail the long-term sustainability vision.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, Sustainability, and Carbon Emissions
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia and Asia
496. Global Food Insecurity – The Danger of Misguided Food Production Policies: The Case of Sri Lanka
- Author:
- Paul Teng and Jose M. L. Montesclaros
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- The Russia-Ukraine conflict has aggravated food insecurity worldwide and encouraged various countries to find new ways to manage this threat, including policies to substitute costly imported agricultural inputs like synthetic fertilizers and pesticides. Sri Lanka’s recent experience shows that drastic policy changes can have disastrous political and societal consequences.
- Topic:
- Politics, Food, Food Security, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Sri Lanka
497. Uncertainty in the Black Sea: Implications for Asia’s Food Security
- Author:
- Jose M. L. Montesclaros
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- There has been increasing uncertainty, with Russia opting out from the Black Sea Grain Initiative and re-joining five days later. In this brief period, wheat and maize prices jumped for commodity traders. These events portend continuing instability in supply of essential food items amid the Ukraine war and putting Asia’s food security at risk.
- Topic:
- Security, Food, Food Security, and Strategic Stability
- Political Geography:
- Asia
498. The Quad and HADR Operations: Prospects for Cooperation with Southeast Asia
- Author:
- Christopher Chen
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- Quad leaders met in New York on 23 September 2022 and signed into operation the Guidelines for the ‘Quad Partnership on Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) in the Indo-Pacific’. This represents an expansion of the scope of the Quad alliance and opens new prospects for ASEAN and Southeast Asia in this critical area of human security.
- Topic:
- Security, Humanitarian Aid, International Cooperation, and Humanitarian Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Asia and ASEAN
499. Small Modular Reactors in the Philippines’ Journey Toward Nuclear Energy
- Author:
- Julius Caesar Trajano
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- The Philippines is seeking nuclear energy partnerships with various countries and allies as it aims to address the twin challenges of achieving energy security and reducing carbon emissions. How can advanced small modular nuclear reactors help the Philippines in its transition to clean energy?
- Topic:
- Security, Energy Policy, Nuclear Power, Nuclear Energy, and Green Transition
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Philippines
500. COVID-19 and the Health of Banking Sector in Japan and South Korea: A Comparative Study
- Author:
- Munim Kumar Barai
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- The economies of Japan and South Korea are dominated by banks. Both countries have created a complex financial structure, including a well-established banking industry at their heart that supports economic operations. However, both countries’ banking sectors have previously faced crises such as the Asian Financial Crisis (mostly in South Korea), the Japanese economic slowdown, and the financial crisis of 2007-08 (both). While the Bank of Japan (BOJ) approved the quantitative easing (QE) monetary policy and lowered interest rates to manage the crises, the Bank of Korea (BOK) pursued interest and financial restructuring as well as banking system digitization to overcome the crises. Covid-19 has disrupted the normal operation of banks, and the central banks and governments of both countries have implemented a variety of monetary and other measures to mitigate its economic and financial consequences. This study aims to identify and assess the health of domestic banks in Japan and South Korea for the Covid-19 ex-ante and interim periods. Several important variables, i.e., portfolios of assets and liabilities, asset productivity, stockholders' equity, profitability, and operating efficiency, have been included to evaluate the health of their banks. This compari-son of health metrics for 2010 to 2020 could help identify changes or shifts in the banking sector of Japan and Korea. The study has used ex-ploratory and descriptive methodologies to undertake qualitative and quantitative evaluations of important bank health indicators in the ex-ante and interim periods of Covid-19. It also used a hybrid method to produce research goals and arguments, including a framework based on what was already known in the field.
- Topic:
- Financial Crisis, Economy, COVID-19, and Banking
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Asia, and South Korea