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42. Somalia Redux? Assessing the New Somali Federal Government
- Author:
- Matt Bryden
- Publication Date:
- 08-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Somalia marked a milestone in September 2012 with the establishment of a new federal government that has since won the support and recognition of the international community. After more than 20 years of conflict, crisis, and statelessness and 12 years of ineffectual transitional authorities, the Somali federal government (SFG) has been widely welcomed as Somalia's first “post-transition” government. It has been greeted with such a groundswell of optimism that many observers, including British Prime Minister David Cameron, have drawn parallels with the “Arab Spring” that has transformed parts of the Middle East. It is tempting to imagine that Somalia is finally on the path to recovery.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Development, Islam, Fragile/Failed State, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Middle East, Arabia, and Somalia
43. GCC-Maghreb Relations in a Changing Regional Order
- Author:
- Carolyn Barnett
- Publication Date:
- 08-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- While rulers in the Maghreb and the Gulf have long engaged one an-other, until recently neither region held essential strategic importance for the other. Now, several GCC countries are seeking greater influence around the region, including in the Maghreb. Gulf countries have demonstrated their growing interest in the Maghreb through aid and investment, though aid disbursements have been slow to materialize. Tunisia, Libya, Morocco and Algeria all have delicate relationships with the Gulf that intersect with domestic politics, debates over Islam and authority, concerns about instability, the need for stronger economic growth, and aversion to foreign interference. Promoting constructive GCC-Maghreb relations will be most feasible on the economic front. Successful management of enduring tensions will not ensure political and economic stability, but it will make that stability much more likely.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Political Economy, and Islam
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Libya, Arabia, Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia
44. Yemen and U.S. Security
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman, Robert M. Shelala II, and Omar Mohamed
- Publication Date:
- 08-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Yemen is the most troubled state in the Arabian Peninsula. It remains in a low - level state of civil war, and is deeply divided on a sectarian, tribal, and regional level. A largely Shi'ite Houthi rebellion still affects much of the northwest border area and has serious influence in the capital of Sana and along parts of the Red Sea coast. Al Qa'ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) poses a threat in central Yemen, along with other elements of violent Sunni extremism, there are serious tensions between the northern and southern parts of Yemen, and power struggles continue between key elements of the military ruling elite in the capital and outside it.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Foreign Policy, Islam, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Yemen, and Arabia
45. The Future of Anti-Western Jihadism
- Author:
- Thomas Hegghammer
- Publication Date:
- 07-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
- Abstract:
- This testimony explores the future of jihadism, in part because the past and present are already quite well described in the literature and partly because there has been considerable debate among experts in recent years about al-Qaida's future. Peter Bergen has literally declared the group “defeated”, while a book by Daveed Gartenstein-Ross sets out to explain “why we are still losing the war on terror.” Earlier this year, former CIA officials Paul Pillar and Bruce Riedel published op-eds on the very same day making diametrically opposing arguments about the future of al-Qaida. With this testimony I weigh in on this debate and deliberately engage in some qualified speculation about al-Qaida's future.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Civil War, Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, Counterinsurgency, and Fragile/Failed State
- Political Geography:
- United States and Arabia
46. Talking to Arab Youth: Revolution and Counterrevolution in Egypt and Tunisia
- Author:
- Nur Laiq
- Publication Date:
- 10-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- The political landscape of the Arab world has undergone dramatic changes since 2011, the effects of which will continue to reverberate into the foreseeable future. The overthrow of authoritarian rule in Tunisia by popular protest was followed by the collapse of longstanding regimes in Egypt, Libya, and Yemen, leading many to celebrate a new dynamic between citizen and state in the Arab world. In late 2013, the situation looks quite different. The first democratically elected president in Egypt has been deposed, hundreds of his supporters killed, and the Muslim Brotherhood banned. In Tunisia, parliament has been suspended; two politicians have been assassinated; and a campaign calling for the ouster of the Islamist-led government has gained momentum. In both countries, the population is divided and the anciens régimes fight to restore the old order. Will the ideals that sparked revolution be subsumed by counterrevolution? Or will the trajectories of revolution bend toward democratic consolidation?
- Topic:
- Democratization, Islam, Regime Change, Youth Culture, and Popular Revolt
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Arabia, and Egypt
47. Libya: the struggle for security
- Author:
- Florence Gaub
- Publication Date:
- 06-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Union Institute for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- Nearly two years have passed since the end of Colonel Qaddafi's dictatorship, but all is not well in Libya. What began as a popular uprising - that later gained international support through UN Security Council Resolution 1973 - has now turned into a potentially toxic security vacuum, culminating in the resignation of Chief of Staff Youssef al-Mangoush on 10 June and repeated clashes between civilians and a legalised militia in Benghazi which have left at least 35 people dead.
- Topic:
- Security, Political Violence, Crime, Islam, Regime Change, and Fragile/Failed State
- Political Geography:
- Libya, Arabia, and North Africa
48. Transitional Justice for Syria
- Author:
- Nicholas Rostow
- Publication Date:
- 09-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- Transitional justice is the provision of justice in the transition from one form of government, often perceived as illegitimate, unjust, and tyrannical, or an anarchic society, to one that observes the rule of law and administers justice. It also is about choices: how to allocate scarce prosecutorial, judicial, police, and prison resources. The goal is to make the rule of law ordinary. A 2004 report of the United Nations (UN) Secretary-General on the rule of law and transitional justice in conflict and postconflict societies observed that most examples of transitional justice involved states emerging from civil war or widespread civil unrest such that government became impossible.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Islam, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, United Nations, and Syria
49. Violence Against Copts in Egypt
- Author:
- Jason Brownlee
- Publication Date:
- 11-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The Egyptian Orthodox Christian community—the Copts—has been the target of violence and discrimination since the 1970s and especially following the revolution that overthrew Hosni Mubarak. The Egyptian state has done little to remedy the situation and has at times enabled the conflict between Muslims and Christians. Achieving religious freedom and equality depends on building state institutions that can guarantee all citizens' constitutional rights.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Islam, and Sectarian violence
- Political Geography:
- Arabia, North Africa, and Egypt
50. Syria's Sectarian Ripples across the Gulf
- Author:
- Frederic M. Wehrey
- Publication Date:
- 11-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Like the Iraq war and, to a lesser extent, Lebanon's 2006 war, Syria's internecine conflict has enabled the Gulf's ruling families, media commentators, clerics, parliamentarians, and activists to invoke and amplify Sunni-Shia identities, often for goals that are rooted in local power politics. By-products of the mounting sectarian tension include the fraying of reform cooperation among sects and regions, and pressure on the Gulf's formal political institutions. Traditional and social media have served to amplify the most polarizing voices as well as provide reform activists new means for cross-sectarian communication that circumvent governmental efforts to control or block such activities.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Islam, and Sectarian violence
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, and Syria