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1781. Automation and AI: Implications for African Development Prospects?

Author:
Charles Kenny
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Now that computers are capable of taking the jobs that require brain as well as brawn, it may appear there is little left for humans to do. There are many scary forecasts of the capacity of automation and AI to replace a lot of workers very fast. Self-driving vehicles may wipe out opportunities for taxi driv- ers and truckers, for example. Brynjolfsson, Rock, and Syverson note there are 3.5 million people em- ployed driving vehicles in the US. If automation reduced that to 1.5 million, that alone would increase total US labor productivity by 1.7 percent,1 but it would also leave two million drivers looking for work. In 2013, Oxford economists Carl Frey and Michael Osborne made waves by predicting that 47 percent of US employment was automatable over the next two decades, with a higher estimate for developing countries.2 Erin Winick of Technology Review subsequently produced a summary table of job losses and gains estimations on automation.3 Some of the worldwide figures are in Table 1. There are clearly two sides to the ledger, but some of the predicted job loss numbers at the global level are considerable. The forecasts suggest bad news for Africa in particular, given concentration in types of low-skill jobs that might be easy to automate, rising working age populations, and already far too few good jobs to occupy the existing population. Arntz et al. suggest the share of workers at high risk of automation is 40 percent amongst those with a lower secondary education and above 50 percent for those with primary or less education.4 Advanced manufacturing and AI applications including automated call centers might even reverse the trend towards manufacturing and low-skilled services moving to developing countries. That would imperil a recent run of global income convergence. And there have been cases of impact al- ready: Foxconn replacing 30 percent of its workforce when it introduced robots, and 1,000 lost jobs in Vietnam when Adidas shuttered a factory and moved production to “speed factories” in Germany and the US. If this is the beginning of a trend, it would be harmful to African development prospects.
Topic:
Development, Science and Technology, Artificial Intelligence, Automation, and Emerging Technology
Political Geography:
Africa

1782. Promoting New Kinds of Legal Labour Migration Pathways Between Europe and Africa

Author:
Michael Clemens, Helen Dempster, and Kate Gough
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
As Europe’s working-age population continues to decline, sub-Saharan Africa’s is rapidly increasing. Many of these new labour market entrants will seek opportunities in Europe, plugging skill gaps and contributing to economies in their countries of destination. To make the most of these movements, the new European Commission should create and promote new kinds of legal labour migration pathways with more tangible benefits to countries of origin and destination; pilot and scale Global Skill Partnership projects between Europe and sub-Saharan Africa and within Africa; and be a positive voice for migration within Europe, promoting the benefits from migration and ensuring they are understood.
Topic:
Migration, Labor Issues, Legal Theory, Borders, and Labor Market
Political Geography:
Africa and Europe

1783. Women Representation In Parliament In Sub-Saharan Africa: Case Study of Rwanda and Kenya

Author:
Prudence Laure Ndinga
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:
Altinbas University
Abstract:
The marginalization of women from political and economic activities has been a subject of debate and policy reforms across the world. In Africa, decades after most countries attained independence; women continue to face more obstacles in pursuing their political interests in a male-dominated field. This is partly due to the societal structures that alienated women from decision-making processes in favor of men. However, gradual changes in African societies such as improved access to education, globalization, the emergence of feminism and experiences such as conflicts in the continent have seen an improved representation of women in decisionmaking processes in the society. This paper, therefore, examines parliamentary women representations in Rwanda and Kenya through the historical development of women participation in parliament, the factors that facilitated these developments, the influence of women parliamentarians in legislation, and, the challenges that continue to deter women from effective representation and participation in parliamentary proceedings. This paper concludes that women parliamentarians play a significant role in good governance through their inputs in parliamentary legislation especially on pro-poor development and protection of vulnerable groups in the society.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Women, Representation, and Legislation
Political Geography:
Kenya, Africa, and Rwanda

1784. Adapting According to Plan: Early action and adaptive drought response in Kenya

Author:
Alice Obrecht
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Case Study
Institution:
ALNAP: Active Learning Network for Accountability and Performance
Abstract:
This study looks at the relationship between organisational adaptiveness and the ability of humanitarian and state actors to respond effectively to slow-onset cyclical disasters. The study focuses on the early action undertaken in response to drought conditions in Kenya from July 2016 to July 2017.
Topic:
Natural Disasters, Crisis Management, Humanitarian Response, Flexibility, and Drought
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

1785. Under Wraps: A survey of public attitudes to homosexuality and gender non-conformity in Malawi

Author:
Alan Msosa, Zione Jane Veronica Ntaba, MacDonald Sembereka, Eric Sambisa, Gift Trapence, Chiwoza Bandawe, Ndifanji Namacha, Eric Umar, Timothy Mtambo, Reverend Master Jumbe, Jones Hamburu Mawerenga, and Janet Mwandira
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Other Foundation
Abstract:
This report is called Under Wraps because it shows that Malawi has a comparatively high LGBTI population that is known by a significant number of ordinary Malawians to be socially vulnerable – but this reality remains hidden in Malawi’s social consciousness. Despite strong social values and aspirations of equality, non-violence, and belonging in a community, the majority of Malawians restrict LGBTI people from being openly recognized and safely included in families, communities, workplaces, cultural practices, and public policies. However, a large number of Malawians are thinking differently about discrimination, even the majority in relation to recognition of intersex people and violence towards LGBTI people.
Topic:
Public Opinion, Discrimination, LGBT+, Society, Homophobia, and Transphobia
Political Geography:
Africa and Malawi

1786. Stabanisation: A discussion paper about disrupting backlash by reclaiming LGBTI voices in the African church landscape

Author:
Hanzline Davids, Abongile Matyila, Charlene van der Walt, and Sindi Sithole
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Other Foundation
Abstract:
The title of the convening that gave rise to this collaborative reflection Breaking though the Backlash: Transformative encounters between LGBTI people and Churches in Africa, implies a level of visible and tangible progress in pursuing justice for LGBTI people within the African faith landscape and a coordinated push-back against progressive gains and constructive progress. Consequently this contribution starts by critically engaging the African contextual faith landscape and reflecting on examples of both progress and emerging backlash when it comes to the full inclusion of LGBTI people within African faith communities. Following from this, we explore the contours of a possible theology of liberation for LGBTI people in the African context. We agree with Makau Matua who argues that to engage with backlash we require “…thoughtful analysis, courageous advocacy and fundamental reform.”
Topic:
Religion, Christianity, LGBT+, Advocacy, Inclusion, and Activism
Political Geography:
Africa

1787. Taking a Stand: A call to action by the church against injustice towards LGBTI people

Author:
Allan Boesak
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Other Foundation
Abstract:
At its 2008 General Synod the Uniting Reformed Church in Southern Africa considered a report on the church’s stand on the question of sexual orientation and nonconformity. That was a moment, in my view, in which this church, who had declared apartheid, its biblical and theological justification a heresy and led the ecumenical movement in doing the same; who in formulating in 1982, and adopting in 1986 the Belhar Confession as a new standard of faith, faced its greatest challenge since confronting apartheid. Central to the Confession are our unity in Christ; the reconciliation wrought by Christ, and the justice demanded by God. These three things. I was the convenor of that task team and presenter of the report at the synod. It was one of those utterly shattering, fundamentally life-changing experiences. After a hostile, and theologically disturbingly crude, debate, the synod rejected the report, its contents, its conclusions and its recommendations calling for justice for LGBTQI persons and referred the report for reconsideration. Even though the words, “another, more anti-gay report” were deleted from the amended version of the original proposal, the intention could not have been clearer. What was striking and shocking, even though hardly unknown in debates on this matter it seems, was the stridently hostile tone of the debate, the blatant homophobic language that dominated the discussion all through the afternoon. Speakers who took the floor did not even attempt to disguise their contempt. Some spoke openly of LGBTQI persons as “animals”, “not created by God”; of bestiality and of LGBTQI persons in one breath, all of which as being a “scandal” and “stain” upon the church. It was an experience that had left me shaken and disoriented: how could the same church that took such a strong stand against apartheid and racial oppression, gave such inspired and courageous leadership from its understanding of the Bible and the radical Reformed tradition; that had, in the middle of the state of emergency of the 1980s with its unprecedented oppression, its desperate violence and nameless fear given birth to the Belhar Confession that spoke of reconciliation, justice, unity and the Lordship of Jesus Christ, now display such blatant hatred and hypocrisy, deny so vehemently for God’s LGBTQI children the solidarity we craved for ourselves in our struggle for racial justice, bow down so easily at the altar of prejudice and bigotry?
Topic:
Human Rights, Religion, Christianity, LGBT+, Justice, and Advocacy
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

1788. Get Real: A discussion paper about whether a compliance-based approach to LGBTI economic empowerment can work in South Africa

Author:
Tracy-Lynn Humby
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Other Foundation
Abstract:
In 1996, South Africa made human rights history by being the first country in the world to prohibit unfair discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation in its constitution. But 25 years after this resounding document was passed by the Constitutional Assembly, the lived realities of most LGBTI South Africans lag well behind the constitution’s ringing promises.
Topic:
Human Rights, Employment, Discrimination, LGBT+, and Compliance
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

1789. Leaders for a New Africa: Democrats, Autocrats, and Development

Author:
Giovanni Carbone
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
Political leadership can be a crucial ingredient for the development of sub-Saharan Africa. The region has been going through important transformations, with both political landscapes and economic trajectories becoming increasingly diverse. The changes underway include the role of leadership and its broader impact. This volume argues that, on the whole, African leaders and the way they reach power generally do contribute to shaping their countries’ progresses and achievements. It also zooms in on some influential African leaders who recently emerged in key states across the continent, illustrating and explaining the individual paths that brought them to power while reflecting on the prospects for their governments’ actions. Far from the simplistic stereotypes of immovable, ineffective and greedy rulers, the resulting picture reveals dynamic and rapidly evolving political scenarios with key implications for development in the region.
Topic:
Development, Politics, Democracy, Leadership, and Autocracy
Political Geography:
Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

1790. The Political Economy of Diaspora Remittances in the Ethiopian Somali Region

Author:
Kassahun Berhanu
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The global Somali diaspora plays a key role in local livelihoods, economies and politics. This is also the case in Ethiopia´s Somali region. The Ethiopian government has deliberately sought to harness investments in local trade and business by its various diaspora communities. As this DIIS Working Paper highlights, interactions between the diaspora and the regional government have taken on a new dynamic in recent years in the Somali region. In exchange for securing their loyalty to the government and its development plans, diaspora returnees and investors obtain various privileges including access to loans. In this scenario of state-led diaspora engagement, the Ethiopian-Somali diaspora is by law prevented from playing a political role in its home country, but nonetheless contributes to stabilizing the current administration. While Ethiopia’s diaspora policy appears successful overall, it is partly undermined by clan favouritism and multiple bureaucratic hurdles. This DIIS Working Paper is written by Professor Kassahun Berhanu (Addis Ababa University and Forum for Social Studies, Addis Ababa)and is an output of the research program ‘Governing Economic Hubs and Flows in Somali East Africa'. The paper is edited by Tobias Hagmann and Finn Stepputat.
Topic:
Political Economy, Politics, Diaspora, Economy, Business, Investment, and Trade
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

1791. Trade And Foreign Direct Investment Nexus In West Africa: Does Export Category Matter?

Author:
Chukwuka Onyekwena, Idris Adermuyiwa, and Eberechukwu Uneze
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa (CSEA)
Abstract:
This paper examines the effect of inward FDI in West Africa on exports to EU countries. It investigates from a host country perspective, the impact of FDI on different export categories: primary, intermediate, and final goods.
Topic:
Economics, Foreign Direct Investment, European Union, Exports, and Trade
Political Geography:
Africa and West Africa

1792. The Fate of Xolobeni Would Be the Fate Of Us All

Author:
Kevin Bloom
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
Since 1996, activists in Xolobeni, a coastal region in South Africa, have been fighting a foreign mining conglomerate that learned that their ancestral lands happen to be rich in titanium. The anti-mining activists of Xolobeni, who have lost many comrades to hit squads, continue to struggle against this foreign company and its partners in the South African government. Given that their land is located in a global biodiversity hotspot, their struggle is the struggle of us all: it is the fight for water, soil, food, and air.
Topic:
Government, Water, Food, Foreign Interference, and Biodiversity
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

1793. A Brief History of South Africa’s Industrial and Commercial Workers’ Union (1919-1931)

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
The Industrial & Commercial Workers’ Union (ICU) – a trade union, rural peasant movement, and urban squatters’ movement – formed on the docks in Cape Town in 1919. Within a decade, the ICU had expanded across Southern Africa without regard for national borders and counted people from various African countries and the Caribbean in its leadership, as well as people who were Indian and mixed race. The largely forgotten history of the ICU is well worth recovering in a time of escalating chauvinism and xenophobia. Our Dossier #20 offers an introduction to this extraordinary popular movement.
Topic:
Industrial Policy, Labor Issues, Trade Unions, and Labor Unions
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

1794. Assessment of the Economic Costs of Electrical Power Outages in Swaziland

Author:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre (ESEPARC)
Abstract:
Electricity access has improved significantly since introduction of the National Energy Policy of 2003. However, challenges in electricity supply still exist due to the frequency of interruptions, which has resulted in harsh penalties and costs to the economy. In 2016, power outages cost Swaziland E700 million in nominal monetary terms, representing 1.67% of Swaziland’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). If not addressed, the problems with the electricity sector will severely undermine the government’s effort to improve the development of the country. In essence, the benefits of increased access to the electricity grid will not be realised if power supply is as unreliable as it currently is. Considerable effort should be made to ensure that the country’s electricity supply system is stable and uninterrupted. Hence, in order to achieve this, there is need for policy attention towards improving the energy sector through investments in electricity generation using renewable energy sources, expediting the promotion of decentralised electricity generation to vulnerable areas, and setting stringent standards for the generation and distribution of electricity.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, Infrastructure, and Electricity
Political Geography:
Africa and Swaziland

1795. Quantifying the Size and Development of the Shadow Economy in Swaziland

Author:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre (ESEPARC)
Abstract:
The size of the shadow economy has been declining at a slow rate over the past 16 years in Swaziland. The size of the shadow economy was found to be 37.4 % in 2016. This was equivalent to E20.5 billion of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2016. The key drives of the shadow economy in Swaziland were found to be the tax burden (direct and indirect taxation), self-employment, the importance of the agricultural sector and the institutional quality of governance institutions. For the country to fast tract its developmental agenda (Vision 2022), it is important for the country to enact policies that will harness and transition the shadow economy into the mainstream economy by targeting the drivers of the shadow economy locally.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Governance, and GDP
Political Geography:
Africa and Swaziland

1796. The Socio-Economic Impacts of the 2015/16 EL Niño Induced Drought in Swaziland

Author:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre (ESEPARC)
Abstract:
The 2015/16 El Niño drought proved to be the worst drought Swaziland has experienced since 1992. In total nominal monetary terms, the drought cost Swaziland minimally E3.843 billion, representing a 7.01% of Swaziland’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2016 or 18.58% of government expenditure in 2016. Despite the significant drought losses, the country has on paper a solid Disaster Risk Management (DRM) Policy (2010). However, even with extensive experience from past droughts in 2009/10, 2007, 2001, and 1992, the country is still struggling to become drought proof. The reason Swaziland is so affected by drought is that the country’s economic backbone rests on agriculture. The inherent vulnerability to drought is that the food production system in the country is still highly dependent on direct rainfall. Due to chronic drought-like conditions in the Shiselweni and Lubombo regions, households in these regions are now discouraged from participating in agriculture. To illustrate, an assessment of agricultural assets in households reveals that household participation in agriculture is less than 30%, with a measly national average of 25.3%. As a result, the country is now too dependent on the international, basically South African, market for its basic food needs. The implication is that as droughts become more frequent, their impact on the country will be detrimental to the economy, particularly on rural livelihoods.
Topic:
Economics, Environment, Natural Disasters, Socioeconomics, and Drought
Political Geography:
Africa and Swaziland

1797. The Economic Benefits of Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) in the Kingdom of Swaziland: A case of the National Handicraft Training Centre (NHTC)

Author:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre (ESEPARC)
Abstract:
Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) in Swaziland is key for employment and self-employment opportunities which result in economic growth. TVET has proven to be an educational pathway that can be used to significantly reduce the unemployment rate by 2022. TVET graduates acquire skills that empower them to be immediately absorbed by the labour market and/or be self-employed. About 73.1% of the graduates are in productive employment after graduating from NHTC; with 47.6% formally employed, 25.5% self-employed, while 26.2% were unemployed in the period 1995 – 2015. The Benefit-Cost Ratio of NHTC, based on the Government of Swaziland and the Republic of China on Taiwan’s investment in NHTC, is 1:4.66. This means for every E1 invested in NHTC, the economy realises E4.66 through the income generating activities of graduates. The positive return on investment in NHTC indicates that if Government can increase funding to TVET institutions, the economic return can make significant contributions to skills development and GDP growth in the country.
Topic:
Economics, Education, Labor Issues, and Employment
Political Geography:
Africa and Swaziland

1798. Capacity profiling and needs assessment of the public service of Swaziland

Author:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre (ESEPARC)
Abstract:
Governments are constantly under pressure to improve public sector performance and at the same time restrain expenditure growth. Public sector organisations are responsible for providing the necessary public goods and services to the citizens, hence the administration of the public service is traditionally grounded in the achievement of efficiency in the work of its departments in pursuance of goals related to service provision (Manzoor 2014). Some scholars argue that the efficiency of the public sector is key to delivering a ‘smarter state’ capable not only of delivering more for less, but better public services, which requires an evidence-based understanding of what the public service has been able to deliver so far, the drivers of these outcomes and the different options available (Hawkins et al. 2016). Swaziland’s private sector, non-governmental organisations, and the public feel that while the country’s public service is evolving, it is still grappling with finding an ideal management style that will ensure better service provision, but in the process of evolution, service delivery of public goods remains compromised, hence customer satisfaction is low. So what can be done to improve the efficiency and performance of the public service? Analysts argue that implementing e-governance has brought unprecedented efficiencies in the work of government to serve citizens (Manzoor 2014). To achieve this and more, governments are widening their base of development partners who can assist in capacity building for civil servants, and funding for the implementation of its programmes.
Topic:
Development, Governance, Public Sector, and Public Service
Political Geography:
Africa and Swaziland

1799. Quantifying a living wage in Swaziland: A case of the handicraft sector

Author:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre (ESEPARC)
Abstract:
The Swaziland MDG Report (MDGR, 2015) documents that to improve wellbeing in Swaziland beyond 2015 requires the country to accelerate efforts geared toward creating lucrative employment and decent work for all, including women, the youth, and people living with disabilities. This is pertinent for the Kingdom of Swaziland given that 28.1% of the economically active population was unemployed in 2014 (ILFS, 2014). Others have argued that the unemployment rate is higher in rural areas, where the actual figure is probably more than 40% (Manyatsi et al., 2013). The handicraft sector has the potential to provide mass employment opportunities. However, undermining handicraft in Swaziland is a lack of appreciation of the potential this sector has toward changing the economic status and livelihoods of the people (Bam, 2014). As a result, the sector is notorious for paying low wages that do not support a decent standard of living, particularly in rural areas. Poor pay or low wages can have adverse impacts on economic growth by depressing per capita consumption.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Employment, Standard of Living, and Wages
Political Geography:
Africa and Swaziland

1800. Predictors of food insecurity in Swaziland: Lessons from the 2015/16 El Niño induced drought

Author:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre (ESEPARC)
Abstract:
The National Food Security Policy (NFSP) 2005 stresses recurrent droughts and the high incidence of HIV/AIDS in Swaziland as the major contributing factors towards adverse food insecurity in the country. Consistently, when droughts hit the country, food production plummets and pushes a significant portion of the population into food insecurity. An investigation of the predictors of food insecurity among households during the 2015/16 drought provides information on the households that are prone to drought induced food insecurity, so as to inform food security risk mapping in the country. The assessment found that the most significant factors associated with increased food insecurity odds at the household level include households in the Lubombo region which is the poorest among the four regions. Households that do not have toilet facilities in their homesteads, those that depend on rainwater and boreholes as their main source of drinking water, as well as households that use lanterns or oil lamps as their main source of lighting are more likely to be food insecure. Another important factor that can be a good predictor of increased food insecurity during a drought is the ownership and use of tractors and hoes within households that depend on crop production as one of the main sources of food.
Topic:
Environment, Natural Disasters, Food, and Food Security
Political Geography:
Africa and Swaziland