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1701. Assessing Public Expenditure Governance of the Primary Health Care Programme in Uganda

Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Abstract:
The need to provide affordable and good quality healthcare is shared by Uganda and many other countries across the world. This is reflected in the third Sustainable Development Goal (SDG 3), which aims “to achieve universal health coverage, and provide access to safe and affordable medicines and vaccines for all.” In domesticating SDG 3, the overall goal of Uganda’s Health Sector Development Plan (HSDP 2015/16 – 2019/20) is to accelerate movement towards Universal Health Coverage with essential health and related services needed for promotion of a healthy and productive life. The provision of universal health coverage is what has come to be defined as Primary Health Care (PHC) in many countries globally.
Topic:
Development, Health, Governance, Health Care Policy, and Sustainable Development Goals
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

1702. From the EMS to the EMU and...to China

Author:
Joseph Halevi
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
The paper highlights the position of German authorities, showing that they were quite lucid about the fundamental weaknesses inherent in a process that separated monetary from fiscal policies by giving priority to the centralization of the former. Instead of repeating the well known critiques levelled against the EMU – for which readers are referred to the unsurpassed treatment by Stiglitz, the essay highlights the splintering of Europe in the way in which it has unfolded during the 1990s and in the first decade of the present millennium. In particular the early economic and political origins of the terminal crisis of Italy are located between the late 1980s and the 1990s. France is shown to belong increasingly to the so-called European periphery by virtue of a weakening industrial structure and persistent balance of payments deficits. The paper argues that France regains its central role by political means and through its weight as an active nuclear military power centered on maintaining its imperial interests and posture especially in Africa. The first decade of the present millennium is portrayed as the period in which a distinct German economic area had been formed in the midst of Europe with a strong drive to the east with an increasingly powerful gravitational pull towards the People’s Republic of China.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, Political Economy, History, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Europe, Asia, Germany, and Global Focus

1703. State Capacity and Demand for Identity: Evidence from Political Instability in Mali

Author:
Maxim Ananyev and Michael Poyker
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
We demonstrate that civil conflict erodes self-identification with a nation-state even among non- rebellious ethnic groups in non-conflict areas. We perform a difference-in-difference estimation using Afrobarometer data. Using the onset of Tuareg-led insurgency in Mali caused by the demise of the Libyan leader Muammar al-Gaddafi as an exogenous shock to state capacity, we find that residents living closer to the border with the conflict zone experienced a larger decrease in national identification. The effect was greater on people who were more exposed to local media. We hypothesize about the mechanism and show that civil conflict erodes national identity through the peoples’ perception of a state weakness.
Topic:
Development, Economics, State Formation, State Actors, State, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Africa, Libya, and Mali

1704. China and the World Bank: How Contrasting Development Approaches affect the Stability of African States

Author:
Kai Gehring, Lennart C. Kaplan, and Melvin H.L. Wong
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
Abstract:
China’s development model challenges the approaches of traditional Western donors like the World Bank. We argue that both aim at stability, but differ in the norms propagated to achieve that. Using fixed effects and IV estimations, we analyze a broad range of subnational stability measures in Africa. Aid by both the WB and China does not increase outright conflict nor any type of citizen protest, on average. Both even reduce outright conflict by governments against civilians. Still, Chinese aid is associated with more government repression and an increased acceptance of authoritarian norms, while WB projects strengthen democratic values.
Topic:
Development, International Political Economy, Political Economy, World Bank, and Developing World
Political Geography:
Africa and China

1705. Participation in Non-Farm Activities in Rural Sudan: Patterns and Determinants

Author:
Ebaidalla M. Ebaidalla
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
Abstract:
Despite the importance of non-farm income in the livelihood of the rural population in Sudan, information available on its size and determinants is scant. This study examined the patterns and determinants of decisions to participate in non-farm activities in rural Sudan. It also investigates whether the determinants of participation in non-farm activities vary across agriculture sub-sectors and income groups as well as among males and females. The data for this study was sourced from the Sudanese National Baseline Household Survey (NBHS) conducted by Sudan’s Central Bureau of Statistics in 2009. The results show that non-farm income is a crucial source of livelihood, contributing about 43% to household income in rural Sudan. The results of multinomial logit and probit estimation methods indicate that educational level, mean of transportation, lack of land and lack of access to formal credit are the most significant factors that push rural farmers to participate in non-farm activities. Surprisingly, the effect of household income was positive and significant, implying that individuals from rich households have higher opportunity to engage in non-farm activities compared to their poor counterparts. Moreover, the analysis revealed some symptoms of gender and location disparities in the effect of factors that influence participation in non-farm activities. The study concluded with some recommendations that aim to enhance the engagement in non-farm activities as an important diversification strategy to complement the role of the agriculture sector in improving rural economy in Sudan.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, Gender Issues, Income Inequality, and Rural
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

1706. Determinants and Economic Impact of International Tourist Arrivals in Ghana

Author:
Isaac Bentum-Ennin
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
Abstract:
Given Ghana’s endowments such as attractive sites; more than 500km of beaches, and World Heritage forts and castles, tourism is seen as an important tool for promoting the socio-economic development in that it generates many economic benefits such as incomes, employment and tax revenue, both within the sector and through linkages with other sectors. This study first, analyses the factors influencing the upward trends in international tourists’ arrivals and receipts and second, quantifies the impact of the tourism sector on the Ghanaian economy. The objective of this policy brief is to inform the Ministers of Interior, Tourism and Finance that the most important factor influencing international tourists’ arrivals in Ghana is the prevailing civil liberties and political rights and that Nigeria is a significant substitute destination. Also, that the tourism sector has had the greatest impact on the whole Ghanaian economy when compared to sectors such as agriculture, industry and other services sectors. It is hoped that appropriate legislations will be passed to deepen these liberties and rights and that policy measures will be put in place to ensure macroeconomic stability in order not to lose competitiveness to Nigeria. Also, it is hoped that the Tourism Ministry would lobby for more investment and more resources from the Finance Ministry in order to expand the sector since it has a huge potential to stimulate economic growth.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Economics, International Political Economy, Tourism, Economic Growth, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
Africa and Ghana

1707. Performance of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises in Uganda: The Role of Innovation

Author:
Ibrahim Okumu and Faizal Buyinza
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
Abstract:
Using the 2013 World Bank Enterprise Survey data for Uganda, this paper employs the quintile estimation technique to explain the relationship between innovation and firm performance in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Innovation involves the introduction of a new or significantly improved production process, product, marketing technique or organizational structure. Our results indicate that individual processing, product, marketing and organizational innovations have no impact on labour productivity as proxied by sales per worker. However, the results indicate the presence of complementarity between the four types of innovation. Specifically, the effect of innovation on sales per worker is positive when an SME engages in all four types of innovation. Even then the complementarity is weakly positive with incidences of a negative relationship when using any combination of innovations that are less than the four types of innovation. Policy-wise the results suggest that efforts to incentivize innovation should be inclusive enough to encourage all four forms of innovation.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Political Economy, Economic Growth, and Economic Policy
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

1708. Household Economic Well-Being and Child Health in The Democratic Republic of Congo

Author:
Janvier Mwisha-Kasiwa
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
Abstract:
Health is both a direct component of human well-being and a form of human capital that increases an individual’s capabilities and opportunities to generate income and reduces vulnerability. It is argued that these two views are complementary, and both can be used to justify increased investment in health in developing countries. Therefore, investment in child health constitutes a potential mechanism to end the intergenerational transmission of poverty. This paper examines the empirical impact of household economic well-being on child health, and the gender differences in effects using the Demographic and Health Survey conducted in 2014. A series of econometric tools are used; the control function approach appears to be the most appropriate strategy as it simultaneously removes structural parameters from endogeneity, the sample selection and heterogeneity of the unobservable variables. Results suggest a significant positive effect of household economic well-being on child health. However, the magnitude of the effect varies by gender of household head; children from households headed by males appear healthier compared to those from female-headed households. In the context of DR Congo, female-headed households often have a single parent, therefore, the economic well-being effect on child health in the male sub-sample can be considered to include the unobserved contribution of women. These results have implications for public interventions that enable women to participate in paid labour market activities as a means of improving household economic well-being, which in turn could improve child health.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Gender Issues, Health, Health Care Policy, and Children
Political Geography:
Africa and Democratic Republic of Congo

1709. The Productivity Cost of Power Outages for Manufacturing Small and Medium Enterprises in Senegal

Author:
Lassana Cissokho
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
Abstract:
This paper investigates the productivity effects of power outages on manufacturing Small Scale Enterprises (SMEs) in Senegal, using a panel data on manufacturing firms. Productivity is estimated using stochastic frontier models, and power outages measured by their frequency or their duration. We controlled for firms owning a generator as well. The main results are drawn from random effects in a linear panel model. Nonetheless, the results remain consistent to the robustness checks using different models: a double-sided truncated data model and a generalized linear model, and different productivity measures: data envelopment analysis. We find that power outages have negative significant effects on the productivity of SMEs; for example, the manufacturing sector lost up to around 11.6% of the actual productivity due to power outages in 2011, and small firms appear to be affected more than medium ones, 5% against 4.3%. Further, firms with a generator were successful in countering the adverse effect of power outages on productivity. Besides, another outstanding result is the significant positive effect of access to credit on productivity. At last, it appears that productivity increases with firms’ size.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Political Economy, Economic structure, Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, and Manufacturing
Political Geography:
Africa and Senegal

1710. The Linkage between Foreign Direct Investment and Intra-Regional Trade within ECOWAS

Author:
Eme Dada
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
Abstract:
The objective of this policy brief is to inform the Ministers of Trade and Investment of Economic Community of West African State (ECOWAS) countries about the importance of the linkage between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and trade for developing countries. FDI is considered an important means of promoting export of the host countries. This is true of inward FDI, which comes for efficiency reasons. Conversely, there is concern that large flows of outward FDI results in a decline in the host country’s exports and loss of jobs. This in turn assumes that the exports of the source country will fall as FDI substitutes for trade.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:
Africa, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Senegal, Mali, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Cape Verde, and Gambia

1711. Algeria: Inventing New Political Rules

Author:
Rachid Tlemçani
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
As of 22 February 2019, a new chapter of Algeria’s history is being written, one which will establish a new relationship between Algerian citizens and their state. On that day, against all odds, tens of thousands of Algerians, regardless of gender, age, social or professional background, converged on cities and villages to voice their rejection of a fifth term for Abdelaziz Bouteflika in the forthcoming presidential elections. To the call of General Ahmed Gaïd Salah, the army’s chief of staff, to remove President Bouteflika as per Article 102 of the Constitution, and Bouteflika’s subsequent resignation on 2 April, Algerians responded with an even stronger mobilization and their own call, “Système, dégage!”
Topic:
Social Movement, Democracy, Protests, and State Building
Political Geography:
Africa, Algeria, North Africa, Mediterranean, and Algeris

1712. Building Transnational Feminist Alliances: Reflections on the Post-2015 Development Agenda

Author:
Awino Okech and Dinah Musindarwezo
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Contexto Internacional
Institution:
Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:
This article reflects on transnational feminist organising by drawing on the experiences of the African Women’s Development and Communication Network (FEMNET) during the consultations leading up to the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. First, we re-examine some of the debates that have shaped the field of women’s rights, feminist activism and gender justice in Africa, and the enduring legacies of these discourses for policy advocacy. Second, we analyse the politics of movement-building and the influence of development funding, and how they shape policy discourses and praxis in respect of women’s rights and gender justice. Third, we problematise the nature of transnational feminist solidarity. Finally, drawing on scholarship about transnational feminist praxis as well as activism, we distil some lessons for feminist policy advocacy across geo-political divides.
Topic:
Globalization, International Cooperation, Regional Cooperation, Political Theory, Women, Sustainable Development Goals, International Relations Theory, and Alliance
Political Geography:
Africa and Global Focus

1713. The Fall of al-Bashir: Mapping Contestation Forces in Sudan

Author:
Magdi El-Gizouli
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
What is the Sudanese Professionals Association (SPA) anyway, perplexed commentators and news anchors on Sudan’s government-aligned television channels asked repetitively as if bound by a spell? An anchor on the BBC Arabic Channel described the SPA as “mysterious” and “bewildering”. Most were asking about the apparently unfathomable body that has taken the Sudanese political scene by surprise since December 2018 when the ongoing wave of popular protests against President Omar al-Bashir’s 30-year authoritarian rule began. The initial spark of protests came from Atbara, a dusty town pressed between the Nile and the desert some 350km north of the capital, Khartoum. A crowd of school pupils, market labourers and university students raged against the government in response to an abrupt tripling of the price of bread as a result of the government’s removal of wheat subsidies. Protestors in several towns across the country set fire to the headquarters of the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) and stormed local government offices and Zakat Chamber1 storehouses taking food items in a show of popular sovereignty.
Topic:
Mass Media, Food, Social Movement, and Protests
Political Geography:
Africa, Khartoum, and Sundan

1714. Algeria’s Uprisings in Context: An Interview with Prof. El Mouhoub Mouhoud

Author:
El Mouhoub Mouhoud
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
With ongoing protests in Algeria and wide calls to boycott the presidential poll in July, Algerians’ demands for radical regime change remain relentless. The army’s announcement it is considering all options to resolve the current crisis does not resonate well in a country where the army has been closely tied to regime interests. In this interview, Professor Mouhoud provides a much-needed context to better understand how the protests started and the potential scenarios that may unfold in Algeria over the coming months.
Topic:
Social Movement, Arab Spring, Military Intervention, and Protests
Political Geography:
Africa, Algeria, North Africa, Mediterranean, and Algeris

1715. Strong Organization, Weak Ideology: Muslim Brotherhood Trajectories in Egyptian Prisons Since 2013

Author:
Abdülrahman Ayyash
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
On 28 January 2011 – as hundreds of thousands of Egyptians demonstrated on the day dubbed the “Friday of Anger” – Muslim Brotherhood member, Sameh, was demonstrating with several thousand others in Mansoura in the Nile Delta (120 km north of Cairo). As demonstrators began to throw stones at the State Security Investigations building, Sameh stood in front of them shouting “peaceful”. He was hit in the chest by a stone meant to hit the building in one of the city's most prestigious neighbourhoods. Two years later, Sameh was arrested on an array of charges, including joining the Brotherhood and committing acts of violence against the state. A few months later, he told a friend waiting on death row that he considered the Muslim Brotherhood to be apostates and that he had pledged allegiance to the Islamic State (Daesh) and its leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Sameh's case is not unique. According to several detainees – including current prisoners spoken to over the phone – there are ongoing changes among detainees who have spent most of their lives as Muslim Brotherhood members. Egyptian prisons host tens of thousands of political detainees – perhaps more than 60,000 according to Human Rights Watch.2 Arrests have mainly targeted members of the Muslim Brotherhood and its supporters. However, with increased armed attacks against the army and police, arrests have also targeted alleged supporters of Daesh, al-Qa’ida, and Islamists affiliated with smaller organizations. The Egyptian National Council for Human Rights documented prison overcrowding at a rate of at least 160%,3 forcing the authorities to build 20 new prisons since the military coup in the summer of 2013.4 Importantly, this has led to an increased exchange of influences and ideologies among detainees from diverse backgrounds. Detainees – those held after referral to the judiciary or sentencing – are often relocated during their detention, including frequent transfers to temporary detention centres during court hearings, or when brought before the Public Prosecution or for medical treatment. This further facilitates communication with different prison populations and discussion and exchange of ideas between detainees. This paper does not dwell upon traditional classifications imposed on Islamic movements in terms of moderate and extremist trends. Nor does it go into detail regarding the mechanisms of individual radicalization, though it does encourage further study. Instead, we focus on the developmental dynamics of Muslim Brotherhood youth and sympathizers in Egypt, especially those who were arrested during the breakup of sit-ins supporting former President Mohamed Morsi. Developmental dynamics refer to the conditions and contexts which Brotherhood members and sympathizers experience in prison. These inform broader understandings of issues including state and society relations, and social mobility through jihad as opposed to social mobility through the Brotherhood. This paper also discusses the ways in which the Muslim Brotherhood manages its members inside prison, and its attempts to maintain the Brotherhood's administrative and intellectual organization. It is based primarily on information collected during 10 rare phone interviews with current prisoners. It is also based on additional phone and face-to-face interviews with former prisoners inside and outside Egypt. The interviewees come from five different cities and have been in at least seven prisons, including Tora, Wadi al-Natroun, Mansoura and Gamasa; for security and technical reasons, it was not possible to expand the research cohort. The paper is also based on reviews of articles written by detainees, press reports, opinion pieces, and research papers dealing with the complex social phenomenon of the Muslim Brotherhood from different angles.
Topic:
Human Rights, Prisons/Penal Systems, Arab Spring, Protests, and Ideology
Political Geography:
Africa, North Africa, Egypt, and Mediterranean

1716. Challenging the Legal Ideology of the State: Cause Lawyering and Social Movements in Egypt

Author:
Ahmed Ezzat
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Egyptian cause lawyers have constituted a strong socio-professional group and successfully used “strategic litigation” to challenge the state’s policies and counter its conservative narratives. With President El-Sissi in power and the security grip over legal institutions and courts, doubts were raised as to whether it still makes sense to go to court against the state over matters of rights and freedoms. By reviewing several emblematic cases, the author analyzes the impact of cause lawyering on mobilization and social movements and how it contributed to reshaping the public sphere, as well as the challenges the cause lawyers’ movement faces under El-Sissi.
Topic:
Human Rights, United Nations, Social Movement, and Legal Theory
Political Geography:
Africa, North Africa, Egypt, and Mediterranean

1717. Sudan’s Power-Sharing Agreement: Towards Transition or a Game of Tajility?

Author:
Magdi El-Gizouli
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
With Sudanese protesters still shouting “Madaniyya” (civilian), only time will tell if the recently signed power-sharing accord will be a true step in the direction towards democratic transition or simply another manoeuvre in Sudan’s longstanding tradition of “tajility” and unfulfilled promises.
Topic:
Social Movement, Democracy, Protests, and State Building
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, North Africa, and Khartoum

1718. Decentralization in Morocco: Promising Legal Reforms with Uncertain Impact

Author:
Lamia Zaki
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
In the wake of the Arab Spring, Morocco witnessed street protests demanding, among other things, for the “King to reign but not to rule”. Adopted by referendum on 1 July 2011, the latest Moroccan Constitution was prepared through a year-long participatory process led by a consultative commission. Although it did not fundamentally change the balance of powers at the highest levels of the State, it gave a new impulse to the decentralization process. Article 1 of the new Constitution states “the territorial organization of the Kingdom is decentralized”. It also enshrines the two principles of “free administration” of Local Governments (LGs) and subsidiarity and aims at reinforcing transparency, citizen participation, and governance. The new Constitution has also introduced the principle of “advanced regionalization” to make regions, in addition to municipalities, key levels of LGs in Morocco. In 2015, three Organic Laws (OLs) were issued to specify and operationalize the spirit of the Constitution at the municipal, regional, and prefectural levels.1 The decentralization process has quite a long history in Morocco. It has consistently been put at the core of the policy agenda for several decades and represented an important research topic for many observers of the political scene. Three different analytical perspectives have been put forward (in conjunction with contextual factors) to explain why and with what consequences decentralization has been put at the core of the policy agenda. The first points to the authoritarian management of LGs, based on the alliance built after independence between the monarchy and rural elites to counter the influence of urban and partisan elites.2 Using sophisticated tools (including postponing elections, successively reorganizing electoral maps, increasing the role of deconcentrated authorities), this approach led to the creation of domesticated local elites. Behind the decentralization reforms initiated through municipal charters of 1960 and 1976, researchers have pointed at the centralized and often brutal management of the Moroccan territory and of cities in particular in a context of rapid urban growth.3 A second analytical perspective highlights how decentralization has been presented and used since the 1990s by the Moroccan government as a tool to implement “democratization reforms”. The relative opening up of the political field in the late 1990s and early 2000s led to the emergence of new elites in different fields (entrepreneurship,4 real estate,5 partisan field,6 civil society,7 etc.), who have used their local base to claim rights and/or a political role at the local or national level. The third analytical perspective links decentralization to (“good”) governance reforms that focus more on the rationalization of resources, effective investment and the respect of management rules to promote local development rather than on representative democracy.8 By 2011, Moroccan municipalities were already entrusted with a wide range of mandates pertaining to the creation and management of a wide range of key services.9 Studies have shown how municipalities lack the financial and technical means to implement their missions and remain subject to the strong control of central and deconcentrated authorities.10 Yet other research has also highlighted the impact of these reforms on local notabilities and mobilization. The development of Hirak al-Rif, a protest movement born in Northern Morocco in 2016 and focused on demands for local and regional development, shows that the issue of local policies and decentralization remain at the core of the political agenda in a post-Arab Spring era. This article closely examines the recent legal reforms (2011 Constitution and Organic Laws) and looks at the technical and normative arrangements that have been developed in the wake of the Arab Spring to promote decentralization both at the municipal and regional levels. This approach has hardly been used, yet these often-neglected technical arrangements are the fruit of a bargaining process and have a direct political effect. I will show below that beyond the reforms brought by the Constitution and OLs to encourage local democracy and ensure more autonomy for LGs, important uncertainties remain as to their effective implementation on the ground. In addition to the lack of financial resources, the lack of a clear framework and implementing provisions explain that these legal changes remain largely theoretical (despite the fact that about 40 decrees and circulars that have been produced by the Directorate General for Local Governments (DGCL) at the Ministry of Interior to allow for the effective enforcement of the reforms). Contrary to many studies which consider deconcentration (i.e. administrative decentralization)11 as a way to neutralize decentralization reforms, 12 I will also argue that the deconcentration reforms simultaneously initiated with the “régionalisation avancée” (advanced regionalization) could enhance the scope and impact of the decentralization reforms in Morocco.
Topic:
Social Movement, Arab Spring, Protests, and Decentralization
Political Geography:
Africa, North Africa, Morocco, and Rabat

1719. The Tunisian Experience of Decentralization Since 2014

Author:
Lotfi Tarchouna
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
In order for decentralization to be effective and lead to greater equality in development and political engagement, both processes of codification (i.e. enshrining provisions in the constitution) and operationalization must be guided by strong legal and political foundations, principles and structures. The paper discusses the Tunisian experience of decentralization since the adoption of the 2014 Constitution that described the Tunisian state as a unitary state and enshrined administrative decentralization, thus consolidating the Tunisian decentralized state. It argues that after the fall of Ben Ali, decentralization was seen as a way to preserve the integrity of the unitary state in Tunisia while introducing instruments of participative democracy through a reinvigorated decentralization process. First, it presents the legal and political foundations for decentralization and the new structures that were set up to implement it. Second, the paper addresses the fiscal and logistical challenges of implementation, the importance of collective civil society engagement in decentralized structures and concludes with recommendations and lessons learned from this experience in a country that recently experienced democratic transition.
Topic:
Democracy, State Building, Decentralization, and Engagement
Political Geography:
Africa, North Africa, Tunisia, Mediterranean, and Tunis

1720. Who are the Candidates in Tunisia’s 2019 Presidential Elections?

Author:
Souha Drissi
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
With the death of President Beji Caid Essebsi on 25 July, Tunisia’s presidential elections were moved up and will be held on 15 September 2019. By the end of the eight-day process of accepting nominations – from 2 to 9 August – the Independent High Authority for Elections (IHAE) had received 971 requests for nomination which include 75 independents and 11 female candidates. On 31 August, the IHAE released the final list of candidates for the presidential race, accepting 26 nominees, including two women, and rejecting 71 applications for failing to meet candidacy requirements. The IHAE is considered one of the achievements of the 2011 Revolution. It is a nine-member permanent body based in Tunis which enjoys administrative and financial independence. Its mission is to “ensure democratic, pluralistic, fair and transparent elections and referendums”2 and supervise and oversee all related processes. The election campaigns started on 2 September and will continue until 13 September, with 17 September as the deadline for the announcement of the preliminary election results and 21 October for the announcement of the final results. In case of no absolute majority vote, a second round will be held after two weeks.3
Topic:
Politics, Elections, Democracy, and State Building
Political Geography:
Africa, North Africa, Tunisia, and Tunis

1721. Who are the Candidates in Tunisia’s 2019 Presidential Elections?

Author:
Souha Drissi
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
With the death of President Beji Caid Essebsi on 25 July, Tunisia’s presidential elections were moved up and will be held on 15 September 2019. By the end of the eight-day process of accepting nominations – from 2 to 9 August – the Independent High Authority for Elections (IHAE) had received 971 requests for nomination which include 75 independents and 11 female candidates. On 31 August, the IHAE released the final list of candidates for the presidential race, accepting 26 nominees, including two women, and rejecting 71 applications for failing to meet candidacy requirements. The IHAE is considered one of the achievements of the 2011 Revolution. It is a nine-member permanent body based in Tunis which enjoys administrative and financial independence. Its mission is to “ensure democratic, pluralistic, fair and transparent elections and referendums”2 and supervise and oversee all related processes. The election campaigns started on 2 September and will continue until 13 September, with 17 September as the deadline for the announcement of the preliminary election results and 21 October for the announcement of the final results. In case of no absolute majority vote, a second round will be held after two weeks.3
Topic:
Politics, Elections, Democracy, and State Building
Political Geography:
Africa, North Africa, Tunisia, and Tunis

1722. Tunisia’s Upcoming Challenge: Fixing the Economy Before It's Too Late

Author:
Ishac Diwan
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
During its first years of transition to a democratic order, Tunisia's efforts were predominantly focused on addressing political challenges. The performance of the country in this regard has been generally positive, as it has managed to consolidate democratic gains despite challenges related to the polarization of politics around identity and religious issues, the rise in insecurity related to attacks by extremist groups, and even the general disenchantment of voters for the existing political elites. However, the gains on the political front came at the expense of economic setbacks. One of the main challenges for the coming period will thus be largely economic. High unemployment, unfulfilled demands for social justice, the rise in corruption, and most importantly in the short term, an unsustainable macroeconomic trajectory, all threaten to upset recent political gains. If the upcoming administration does not address them, social discontent would endanger the hard-won democratic gains.
Topic:
Religion, Social Movement, Democracy, and Economic Policy
Political Geography:
Africa, North Africa, Tunisia, Mediterranean, and Tunis

1723. Egypt’s Consolidated Authoritarianism

Author:
Amr Hamzawy
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
The current Egyptian political scene reveals an important paradox: since its ascendancy to power in 2013, the military-led authoritarian government has not faced significant challenges from civil society despite systematic hu- man rights abuses and continuous societal crises. Apart from limited protests by labor activists, student movements, and members of syndicates, Egyptians have mostly refrained from protesting, instead hoping that the government will improve their living conditions despite a rising poverty rate of 33 percent, an inflation rate between 11 and 12 percent, and unemployment at eight percent. This popular reluctance to challenge the authoritarian government has continued to shape Egypt’s reality since the collapse of the short-lived democratization process from 2011–2013.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Democracy, Rule of Law, Protests, and Dictatorship
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, North Africa, and Egypt

1724. Examining The Rise Of Popular Protests: The People Power Movement In Uganda

Author:
David E. Kiwuwa
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
The People Power Movement (PPM) in Uganda has its roots in the growing politics of discontent in Africa and across the world. On the continent, the growth of popular movements has been evident in countries like Zimbabwe, Sudan, Algeria, Burkina Faso, Egypt, and Tunisia to mention but a few. These public protests have increased notably in number with their most significant recent manifestation being the Arab Spring. An important aspect of these pro- tests is the central role played by youth movements such as Y’en Maarre (Fed Up) in Senegal, Balai Citoyen (The Civic Broom) in Burkina Faso, and La Lucha (The Struggle) in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Over the past decade, mass uprisings in Africa have accounted for one in three of the nonviolent campaigns aiming to topple dictatorships around the world. With twenty-five new nonviolent mass movements, Africa has experienced almost twice as many as Asia, the next most active region with sixteen. What is common to all these movements is not only the active and public expression of discontent but also the existence of a long entrenched and increasingly indifferent ancien regime whose priority is political survival. In some ways, one could argue that emerging protests are largely a continuation of incomplete democratic struggles in authoritarian or semi-democratic regimes.
Topic:
Social Movement, Democracy, Domestic Politics, and Protests
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

1725. Algeria’s Presidential Elections: Stopping a Democratic Transition?

Author:
Dris Nouri
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Since pluralism was introduced in Algeria in the February 1989 constitution, presidential elections have become a means of conferring legitimacy to the civilian façade of military authority. Historically, the army has held centre stage in the country’s configuration of power, holding power explicitly until 1989, then indirectly after facing popular anger in October 1988, which led the armed forces to relinquish their “revolutionary legitimacy” and replace it with elections-sanctioned legitimacy. The conditions of this political openness, however, and the slide into violence in 1991, allowed authorities the opportunity to disable the capacity of elections to bring forth a democratic alternative. Elections were thus rendered periodic events designed to provide the veneer of democratic legitimacy to a supposedly civilian elected president – but who was always chosen in advance by the authorities under a rigged bureaucratic system. While this model didn’t allow Liamine Zéroual to continue his term (1995-1999), Abdelaziz Bouteflika knew how to manipulate the system to the greatest extent, allowing him to stay in power for four full terms, regardless of his deteriorating health conditions, and to even try to devise loopholes for extending to a fifth term.1 The regime did not expect to pay a high cost for running this model. Nor did it understand that the resources needed to maintain the effectiveness of this system in the collective imaginary of the Algerian people were in fact dwindling, be they material resources (revenues from oil and gas used for generous social programmes and clientele networks) or symbolic (revolutionary legitimacy, Bouteflika’s charisma). As such, the planned presidential election of 18 April 2019 – designed to renew the existing contract between the regime, its cronies, and its clientele networks - instead became the catalyst for a peaceful revolutionary movement to emerge. It was the moment when millions of Algerians took to the streets demanding radical change to the state’s mode of operating, the production process, and the distribution of power in society. As a result of the peaceful popular uprising, Algeria’s top brass was forced to intervene to remove the president who was running again for office, and the elections were cancelled in a bid to contain the unprecedented and widespread anger. However, the authorities soon realized that Algerians were demanding something deeper: the cancellation of the de facto delegated power that the military had enjoyed since independence, to be replaced with a true electoral process. In the wake of this realization, the authorities have been trying to neutralize the effectiveness of the popular uprising, going to great lengths to renew the civilian façade.
Topic:
United Nations, Social Movement, Elections, Protests, Repression, and Military Government
Political Geography:
Africa, Algeria, North Africa, and Algeris

1726. The Crisis of The Algerian Presidential Elections: Candidates, Stakes, and Scenarios

Author:
Redouane Boudjemaa
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
On 17 November, the presidential campaign, which the Algerian authorities insist on organizing on 12 December, officially started. This is despite opposition from large segments of Algerians, expressed through rallies across the majority of provinces in Algeria. These protests strongly express the widely held perception amongst the protesters that the upcoming elections will only renew the system (le pouvoir) and anchor the survival of the military regime imposed on the country since 1962. Two prominent slogans sum up this refusal, across all the protests, "no election with the gangs", highlighting the corruption of the regime, evident through the presence of the figures from the era of the resigned/removed president Bouteflika. The other slogan is, "Civilian, not a military, state", meaning that the protesters demand the building of a civilian state, not a military one. It is this slogan that confirms the necessity of breaking, on an epistemological level, with the militarization and securitization on which the political regime was built since Algeria’s independence from France in July 1962. Departing from an attempt to understand the popular movement’s refusal of the 12 December elections, and the authorities’ rigidity to impose its will and pass the election by force, this paper tries to analyze the trajectories of the five candidates in the election, the calculations of the authority, and those of the popular movement, before moving on to some likely scenarios in case the authorities succeeded, or failed, to impose the ballots.
Topic:
Democracy, Election watch, Protests, and Military Government
Political Geography:
Africa, Algeria, North Africa, and Algeris

1727. Shouting for a New Algeria: Slogans as Foundations of a Political Project?

Author:
Nassim Balla
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
On 22 February 2019, tens of thousands of Algerians took the streets to oppose President Bouteflika running for a fifth term. This unprecedented movement in Algeria, the Hirak, is in many respects particular: it is pacifist, rooted in popular neighbourhoods, and dominated by a young generation of activists. After years of the regime’s disdain (hougra) of the marginalized, of youth, and of political opponents, a spontaneous and peaceful glimmer of hope suddenly emerged. During these protests, Algerian youth have shown incredible creativity in expressing their political demands despite having always been excluded from the formal political sphere and having themselves despised and rejected politics writ large. They have invented complex metaphorical slogans and songs to express their indignation and anger. These chants, however, are not entirely new: they have always existed in Algerian stadiums, where they were traditionally composed by young football fans, the “ultras,” and inspired from Algerian folklore and chaabi (popular) music.1 In the last decade, though, these songs saw an important revival and began encompassing strong political messages deeply anchored in an assessment of the current context. This paper seeks to analyze, deconstruct, and interpret three of these slogans and songs that were born among the ultras in Algerian stadiums and later adopted by all protesters as an alternative to classical political projects. These slogans reflect a long-lasting dissatisfaction with the status quo and are often deeply rooted in popular culture and anthems of the marginalized and forgotten in Algeria.
Topic:
Culture, Elections, Protests, and Youth Movement
Political Geography:
Africa, Algeria, North Africa, and Algeris

1728. Unsettled Memory: Genocide Memorial Sites In Rwanda

Author:
Amanda F. Grzyb
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
In March 2012, the errant roots of a nearby tree broke through one of the mass graves at the top of the Bisesero memorial, a remote site in the western province where Rwandans have laid to rest approximately 50,000 victims of the 1994 genocide. With material support from district leaders, genocide survivors from the Twumba sector labored for weeks to remove approximately 10,000 bodies from the water-damaged tomb. They put the remains in large wooden coffins on the floor beneath thousands of skulls and bones stacked on the shelves of a corrugated metal shed where they had been awaiting incorporation into the unfinished memorial exhibit for more than a decade. Attempts to repair the tomb caused additional structural damage and eventually the remaining bodies also had to be removed, again by local survivors.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Ethnic Conflict, Genocide, Sectarian violence, Humanitarian Intervention, and Violence
Political Geography:
Africa and Rwanda

1729. Lessons From A Life In Rwandan Politics

Author:
Theogene Rudasingwa
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
Theogene Rudasingwa is former Ambassador of Rwanda to the United States. He previously held positions of secretary-general of the ruling party, the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF), and chief of staff for President Paul Kagame. Dr. Rudasingwa is a graduate of Makerere University Medical School in Uganda and the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy in the United States.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Genocide, International Affairs, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa and Rwanda

1730. The Intelligence Cycle of Targeted Killing in the United States

Author:
Christine Sixta Rinehart
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Fletcher Security Review
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
The United States has been using Remotely Piloted Aircraft (RPA) to assassinate terrorist targets since its first RPA strike on November 3, 2002, when a U.S. Predator fired a hellfire missile at a car traveling through the Mar’ib province of Yemen. The intelligence cycle of this targeted killing process is murky at best, and the policy has changed throughout the successive administrations of U.S. presidents. Details exist but there is no defined tangible chain of analysis concerning the selection of the target, the monitoring of the target, and finally, the assassination of the target. This paper attempts to elucidate the intelligence chain of analysis concerning American targeted killing and examine how the intelligence cycle of targeted killing varies through successive presidential administrations. ​ This paper will begin with a short analysis of relevant literature, although sources concerning this topic are scarce. The occurrence of targeted killings of U.S. citizens will also be explained in the literature section. The paper will continue with an elaboration of a generic intelligence cycle model, which will be used to illustrate the intelligence cycle of U.S. targeted killings using both the Reaper and the Predator RPA.[1] The paper will then address differences in the intelligence cycles and processes that have occurred between successive presidents since targeted killing first began in 2002 with President George W. Bush. Lastly, the paper will provide policy prescriptions in reference to improving targeted killing in the Middle East and Africa...
Topic:
Security, Intelligence, Drones, and Targeted Killing
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

1731. Responding to the Rise in Violent Extremism in the Sahel

Author:
Pauline Le Roux
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The Sahel has experienced the most rapid increase in militant Islamist group activity of any region in Africa in recent years. Violent events involving extremist groups in the region have doubled every year since 2015. In 2019, there have been more than 700 such violent episodes (see Figure 1). Fatalities linked to these events have increased from 225 to 2,000 during the same period. This surge in violence has uprooted more than 900,000 people, including 500,000 in Burkina Faso in 2019 alone. Three groups, the Macina Liberation Front (FLM),1 the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS),2 and Ansaroul Islam,3 are responsible for roughly two-thirds of the extremist violence in the central Sahel.4 Their attacks are largely concentrated in central Mali, northern and eastern Burkina Faso, and western Niger (see Figure 2). Multiple security and development responses have been deployed to address this crisis. While some progress has been realized, the continued escalation of extremist violence underscores that more needs to be done.
Topic:
Security, Islam, Regional Cooperation, and Violent Extremism
Political Geography:
Africa, Mali, Sahel, Niger, and Burkina Faso

1732. Assessing Attitudes of the Next Generation of African Security Sector Professionals

Author:
Kwesi Aning and Joseph Siegle
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Africa’s armed forces are in transition from an independence-era model to one more suited to today’s conflicts and threats. They are increasingly called upon to engage in preventive action, resolve domestic security crises, combat transnational threats, and protect the progression toward more democratic governance. Understanding how African security sector actors’ perceptions may be shifting in light of these changes can provide insights to improving their effectiveness. This study, involving 742 African security sector professionals from 37 countries, assesses differences in the attitudes, motivations, and values of the emerging generation of African security sector professionals. Understanding these differences may raise awareness, provide a basis for reform, and create an impetus for improving the citizen-security actor relationship.
Topic:
Globalization, National Security, Democracy, State Building, and transnationalism
Political Geography:
Africa, Mediterranean, and Sahara

1733. Shifting Borders: Africa’s Displacement Crisis and Its Security Implications

Author:
Wendy Williams
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Recent years have seen record numbers of Africans forcibly displaced from their homes. The most recent figure of 25 million people displaced is a 500-percent increase from 2005. While much attention focuses on economic migrants who are trying to cross into Europe, 95 percent of those who are displaced remain on the continent. Two-thirds of these are displaced within their home countries. In short, the reality faced is more accurately characterized as an African displacement, rather than a European migrant, crisis. This paper explores the drivers of population displacement in Africa, security ramifications, and priorities for reversing this destabilizing trend.
Topic:
Migration, Diaspora, Political stability, and Displacement
Political Geography:
Africa, North Uganda, South Sudan, and Sahara

1734. Envisioning a Stable South Sudan

Author:
Luka Biong Deng Kuol, Majak D'Agoôt, Remember Miamingi, Lauren Hutton, Phillip Kasaija Apuuli, Luol Deim Kuol, and Godfrey Musila
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The internal conflict and resulting humanitarian crisis embroiling South Sudan since December 2013 have exposed the country’s fragility. A weak national identity, ethnically based violence, a legacy of violent conflict resolution, personalized and patronage-based politics, weak institutional checks on the abuse of power, and the absence of encompassing leadership, among other factors, all pose obstacles to peacebuilding. As a result, envisaging a stable South Sudan has become increasingly difficult for many South Sudanese and external observers. With regional and international diplomacy rightly focused on negotiating an immediate end to hostilities, the Africa Center for Strategic Studies has asked a selection of South Sudanese and international scholars, security practitioners, and civil society leaders to share their visions of the strategic issues South Sudan must address if it is to make a transition from its current state of dissimilation to a more stable reality. These visions, taken individually and collectively, are intended to help sketch out some of the priorities and prerequisites for transforming today’s highly fragmented security landscape in South Sudan to one in which its citizens are safe in their own country and are protected from external threats.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Nationalism, Regional Cooperation, United Nations, and Humanitarian Intervention
Political Geography:
Africa, East Africa, South Sudan, and Central Africa

1735. Africa Lags in Protections against Human Trafficking

Author:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Trafficking in persons has become a multibillion dollar business in Africa that African governments have been slow to address.
Topic:
Migration, United Nations, Children, Women, Slavery, and Human Trafficking
Political Geography:
Africa, Ethiopia, Egypt, Burundi, Eritrea, South Sudan, Central African Republic, and Mediterranean

1736. Africa’s Unresolved Conflicts a Key Driver of Food Insecurity

Author:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Conflict is a central factor in the geography of Africa’s food insecurity. The acuteness of this insecurity deepens the longer a conflict continues.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, United Nations, Food Security, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, Nigeria, Burundi, South Sudan, Cameroon, and Central African Republic

1737. Progress and Setbacks in the Fight against African Militant Islamist Groups in 2018

Author:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Declines in violent activity linked to Boko Haram and al Shabaab are balanced by increases in the Sahel, generating a mixed picture of the challenge posed by militant Islamist groups in Africa.
Topic:
Violent Extremism, ISIS, Islamic State, and Militant Islam
Political Geography:
Africa, Mozambique, Somalia, Mali, Chad, and Niger

1738. The Complex and Growing Threat of Militant Islamist Groups in the Sahel

Author:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The escalation of violent events linked to militant Islamist groups in the Sahel reflects an array of diverse actors operating within distinct geographic concentrations.
Topic:
Political Violence, International Cooperation, and Militant Islam
Political Geography:
Africa, Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso

1739. A Review of Major Regional Security Efforts in the Sahel

Author:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Increased attacks from militant Islamist groups in the Sahel coupled with cross-border challenges such as trafficking, migration, and displacement have prompted a series of regional and international security responses.
Topic:
Security, Migration, Regional Cooperation, Trafficking, and Displacement
Political Geography:
Africa, Mali, Chad, Mauritania, Sahel, and Niger

1740. Frontlines in Flux in Battle against African Militant Islamist Groups

Author:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
A surge of attacks in the Sahel coupled with declines in activity by Boko Haram, ISIS, and al Shabaab reflect the constantly shifting threats posed by militant Islamist groups in Africa.
Topic:
Violent Extremism, ISIS, and Militant Islam
Political Geography:
Africa, Egypt, Somalia, Mali, and Sahel

1741. Record Number of Forcibly Displaced Africans Likely to Grow

Author:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
With Africa's population expected to double by 2050, the rapid increase in the number of forcibly displaced Africans of the past decade will continue to expand unless key drivers are reversed.
Topic:
Migration, United Nations, Diaspora, and Displacement
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, Somalia, Eritrea, South Sudan, and Central African Republic

1742. Myths about Human Trafficking in Africa

Author:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Human trafficking remains a significant problem in Africa, exploiting vulnerable individuals—children, women, and men—for forced labor as well as prostitution.
Topic:
United Nations, Labor Issues, Children, and Human Trafficking
Political Geography:
Africa, South Africa, North Africa, West Africa, and East Africa

1743. Timeline of South Sudan Peace Agreements and Violence

Author:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Despite multiple ceasefires and peace agreements signed since the conflict began in 2013, the humanitarian costs to the citizens of South Sudan continue to grow.
Topic:
Civil War, Humanitarian Intervention, Negotiation, Violence, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, East Africa, South Sudan, and Central Africa

1744. African Migrant Flows Reshaping Security Challenges in Africa

Author:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The dynamism of clandestine African migration flows continues to present criminal and violent extremist groups opportunities for exploitation.
Topic:
Migration, United Nations, Diaspora, Violent Extremism, and European Union
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Southern Europe

1745. The Complex and Growing Threat of Militant Islamist Groups in the Sahel

Author:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The escalation of violent events linked to militant Islamist groups in the Sahel reflects an array of diverse actors operating within distinct geographic concentrations.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Violent Extremism, and Militant Islam
Political Geography:
Africa, Mali, Sahel, Niger, and Burkina Faso

1746. China and instability in developing countries

Author:
Nicholas Crawford
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
China has become the largest lender to developing countries, and a major investor there too. As a result, it has a major stake in many countries facing political and economic instability. Western policymakers involved in responding to instability and crises overseas need to understand how China navigates these situations. China’s approach is similar in some respects to that of Western states, but there are also important differences. China’s policy towards countries facing political and economic instability is driven by four main concerns: It seeks to strengthen and maintain its partnerships with those countries to ensure they remain open to and supportive of the Chinese government and its businesses. China is determined to protect its financial interests, businesses and citizens from the harms that result from instability. It is concerned to see its loans repaid, its investments secure, its workers safe and its supply chains undisrupted. It wants to maintain its narrative of non-interference. Any intervention in the politics or policies of its partner states must be seen as being at the invitation of their governments (although China may pressure its partners for consent). China wants to increase its influence in the world, independently and distinctively. It is increasingly proactive in its response to instability in partner countries. Some responses seek to address the instability directly; other responses are intended to protect Chinese interests in spite of the instability. This paper analyses the political economy of China’s responses to instability, identifies the types of responses China undertakes, and assesses these responses.
Topic:
Human Rights, International Cooperation, Developing World, Political stability, and Trade
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, China, Europe, Beijing, and Asia

1747. GOING TO PENTECOST An Experimental Approach to Studies in Pentecostalism

Author:
Annelin Eriksen, Roy Llera Blanes, and Michelle MacCarthy
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
Berghahn Books
Abstract:
Co-authored by three anthropologists with long–term expertise studying Pentecostalism in Vanuatu, Angola, and Papua New Guinea/the Trobriand Islands respectively, Going to Pentecost offers a comparative study of Pentecostalism in Africa and Melanesia, focusing on key issues as economy, urban sociality, and healing. More than an ordinary comparative book, it recognizes the changing nature of religion in the contemporary world – in particular the emergence of “non-territorial” religion (which is no longer specific to places or cultures) – and represents an experimental approach to the study of global religious movements in general and Pentecostalism in particular.
Topic:
Post Colonialism, Religion, Economy, and Colonialism
Political Geography:
Africa, Asia, Australia, Angola, Vanuatu, and Papua New Guinea

1748. Gender and Corruption in Botswana: Perceptions, Participation and Considerations for Anti-Corruption Policy

Author:
Marumo Omotoye
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
Several studies have argued that corruption has a greater impact on women than men and that increasing women’s representation in key decision-making positions has a positive effect in reducing corruption. However, limited scholarly and policy attention has been devoted to understanding the link between gender and corruption in Botswana. This paper explores the gendered differences of perceived and actual participation in bureaucratic corruption in Botswana. By examining Afrobarometer data and undertaking a documentary analysis, the study finds that while levels of perceived corruption by men and women in public institutions were high, participation in bureaucratic corruption (bribery) was considerably lower. Contrary to the notion that corruption has a greater impact on women than men, this study finds that higher levels of participation across all public service categories were reported by unemployed men, in particular, having to give a gift or a favour to avoid problems with the police. Notwithstanding the scant availability of data, the documentary analysis revealed that non-monetary forms of corruption such as sextortion (sexual extortion) have been experienced by female students and undocumented female migrants in Botswana. Nevertheless, this form of corruption has received little policy attention, despite its potential to undermine gender equality efforts. Additionally, the study finds little correlation between higher levels of women’s representation in key decision-making positions (i.e., parliament and cabinet) and lower levels of corruption in Botswana. There is a need for both the gender and anti-corruption policy framework to be synthesised in order to specifically reflect on and respond to the perceived gendered dimensions of corruption. The establishment of an independent police authority or commission might not only increase levels of public trust and confidence in the police service, but also strengthen levels of transparency and accountability.
Topic:
Corruption, Gender Issues, Migration, Politics, Women, and Men
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana

1749. Education and Labour Market Activity of Women in Botswana

Author:
Goitseone Khanie
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
This study examines the prevalence of female participation in labour market activities and investigates the role played by education in this participation. Using the 2015/16 Botswana Multi Topic Household Survey data and a multinomial logit model, the study found that women with tertiary education are more likely to be wage employed relative to self-employment, whereas those with lower to no education are more likely to be unemployed or out of the labour force. This is because higher education is normally considered a prerequisite for most wage jobs. It is therefore imperative for the government to continue educating women beyond secondary level as it will better equip them to participate in more meaningful labour market activities. On the other hand, there is need to stimulate the demand side of the labour market in order to accommodate the rising numbers of women with high levels of education. In order to encourage participation of women in high rewarding self-employment activities, there is need to intensify empowerment schemes that are largely oriented towards their self-employment.
Topic:
Education, Gender Issues, Labor Issues, Women, and Employment
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana

1750. The Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Capital Market Development in Botswana’s Economy

Author:
Koketso Molefhi
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
The study examines the impact of macroeconomic variables on stock and bond markets development in Botswana using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)-Bounds Test. The results indicate that macroeconomic variables have an impact on capital market development in Botswana. In the short run, real output, money supply and inflation have a positive influence on the development of the stock market, while real exchange rate retards its development. Real output further supports the development of the stock market in the long run. For the bond market, only two variables, inflation rate and lending rate have positive and negative impact on the bond market in the long run respectively, while none of the variables influence the bond market in the short run. Policy implications include increased efforts by policy makers to increase money supply, gross domestic product for the development of stock market, while the bond market development requires a decrease in lending rates.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Capital Flows, Macroeconomics, and Economic Development
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana

1751. Structural Transformation and Fiscal Policy in Botswana

Author:
Kelesego Mmolainyane
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
This paper analyses impacts of fiscal policy on structural transformation in Botswana using structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model over the period of 1990 to 2015. The study uses an inclusive sustainable transformation (IST) index and government expenditure as proxies for structural transformation and fiscal policy respectively. Results show that prudent fiscal policy can be used as a major strategic tool for structural transformation in Botswana. Most evidently, IST index responds positively to government expenditure shocks over time. In addition, fiscal policy innovations dominantly account for movements in structural transformation in Botswana. Notwithstanding, Botswana has a lot of potential and opportunity to use its fiscal policy more effectively and efficiently to promote an inclusive structural transformation that leads to sustainable economic growth.
Topic:
Economics, Economic structure, Macroeconomics, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana

1752. Unemployment in the SADC Region

Author:
Johanne Motsatsi
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
The objective of this study is to estimate the determinants of unemployment in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region using annual data from 2000 to 2016. Given the characteristic of the data, the study adopts Fixed Effect (FE) estimation technique. For further analysis, the study also estimated the ARDL panel model to capture persistence effect of unemployment in the region. The FE results reveals that real GDP, foreign direct investment, consumer price index, credit to the private sector and interest rate are negatively related to unemployment. While trade openness, labour productivity and population have a positive sign. The results estimated with ARDL model are not very different from those of FE model, but we obtained a noticeably smaller estimates for ARDL model. Variables which have negative association with unemployment suggest that they are likely to reduce unemployment. Therefore, such indicators may be of interest to policy makers when formulating unemployment reduction strategies. In terms of policy advise, the study recommends the government of SADC member states to encourage the education system that can equip leaners with entrepreneurial skills and in-job practical skills, in order to promote high success rate of SMMEs as well as to provide skills needed in the labour market. It also recommended enforcement of free trade of goods and services in the region as a means of making the industrial sector an engine of economic growth in order to create much needed employment.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Labor Issues, Employment, Labor Policies, Macroeconomics, and Unemployment
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana

1753. Consumption Inequality in Botswana: The Decomposition of the Gini Coefficient of Consumer Expenditures

Author:
Lillian Mookodi
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
This paper applies the Lerman and Yitzhaki (1985) inequality decomposition approach on food and non-food expenditures on the 2009/10 Botswana Core Welfare Indicator Survey; and the 2015/16 Multi Topic Indicator Survey datasets with an objective to see how overall inequality translates into inequality within each expenditure component. To test for a robustness of our results, we apply a simple bootstrap procedure to obtain the means, standard errors and confidence intervals for the component Gini coefficients estimates. The decomposition analysis results show that overall inequality based on the Gini coefficient of consumption expenditure within the groups has increased between the two periods from 0.498 to 0.533. These results suggest that this rise in overall expenditure inequality is due to the increased burden in the household budget of non-food spending, which tends to be more unequal than food spending. The consumption expenditure is very unequal on non-food items like recreation and hotels; health; education and transport. On one hand, lower Gini coefficients are observed for food; and clothing and footwear; these commodities are considered as necessities among others. This paper finally offers some possible policy measures to curb this consumption expenditure inequality.
Topic:
Economics, Developing World, Inequality, and Economic Inequality
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana

1754. The Impact of Infrastructure on Economic Growth in Botswana

Author:
Mpho Raboloko
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
The study determines the impact of infrastructure on economic growth in Botswana. The study employs an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) estimation technique to determine how infrastructure affects economic growth in Botswana. The empirical results show that healthcare infrastructure has a positive and significant impact on economic growth in Botswana in the long run. The results further reveal that electric power consumption has a positive and significant effect in influencing economic growth in the short run. The results imply that in order to achieve higher economic growth, policymakers should consider accelerating improvement of healthcare infrastructure.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, Infrastructure, Health Care Policy, Economic structure, Economic Growth, and Rural
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana

1755. The Impact of Business Regulatory Quality on Private Sector Investment in Botswana

Author:
Kedibonye Sekakela
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
A market-friendly regulatory environment is key for private sector investment. In this paper, we examine the impact of business regulatory quality on private sector investment in Botswana. The paper finds that the business regulatory environment stimulates private sector investment in the long term and this phenomenon occurs when the quality of bureaucracy improves, among other factors. Other critical factors affecting private sector investment examined in this paper include; corporate credit, output and public infrastructure investment. Private sector investment responds positively to increases in corporate credit in the short term but not responsive in the long term. Economic activities support private sector investment positively but weak. On the other hand, public infrastructure investment crowds in(out) investment in the short and long term respectively. Policy wise, Botswana should further deepen its efforts towards creating a market-friendly regulatory environment and also consider how business regulatory quality interact with other policy variables for better investment and growth outcomes.
Topic:
Economics, Developing World, Regulation, Business, Investment, and Economic Development
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana

1756. Impacts of Access to ICTs on Employment Status in Botswana

Author:
Masedi K. Tshukudu
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
It is clear that technology has brought about significant changes in the livelihoods of people, creating new forms of employment and advancing the traditional forms of employment for individuals. Many countries continue to invest in Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) with the view to tackling some of the economic challenges such as unemployment. Botswana like other African countries has made annual budgetary allocations towards ICT Infrastructure. Despite, the Government’s efforts to invest and improve access to ICT, the country still faces a high unemployment rate, particularly for the youth. This study therefore, investigates the impact that access to ICTs has on the employment of individuals in Botswana. In order to provide a detailed analysis of the impact of ICTs on employment we apply a probit model for binary choice responses to being employed or not being employed, using the data from the 2014 Botswana Household Access and Individual use of Information Communication Technology Survey carried out by the Statistics Botswana. The empirical results provide evidence that access to ICTs collectively has a positive impact on employment in Botswana. However, disaggregating the ICTs forms presents slightly different results, e-skill training and access to the internet in Botswana are not significant in explaining an individual’s employment status, this may be associated with low uptake of internet and ICTs skills by individuals in Botswana. The policy message from this study is that there is a need for aggressive implementation of collective ICT. [In addition, there is need to improve collective ICTs infrastructure to create more employment].
Topic:
Development, Economics, Science and Technology, Communications, Information Age, and Economic Development
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana

1757. Challenges of Project Implementation in Local Government: The Case of Francistown City Council and Kweneng District Council Botswana Institute

Author:
Thabile A. Samboma
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
Botswana is faced with many challenges of project implementation. Since independence detailed projects and programmes were initiated, with limited and often less developed state capacity to implement them. This study focuses on challenges of project implementation in Botswana’s tier of local government. A qualitative case research method approach was employed to undertake the study. Telephonic interviews were conducted with politicians and employees from Francistown City Council (FCC) and Kweneng District Council (KDC) and data was analysed using thematic analysis. The paper outlines project implementation challenges in Local Authorities (LA). For instance, lack of capacity, lack of commitment by the District Development Committee (DDC), poor stakeholder engagement and lack of financial autonomy by councils. Some of the identified implementation challenges are not peculiar to the two LAs but cuts across local authorities in Botswana. However, low human capacity in local authorities was cited as a major problem in project implementation.
Topic:
Governance, Elections, Domestic Politics, Local, and State Funding
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana

1758. Financial Inclusion and its Impact on Employment Creation in Botswana

Author:
Koketso Molefhi
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
The study examines the impact of financial inclusion on employment creation in Botswana using quarterly time series data for the period 2004-2016. Using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, we find that availability of bank branches, ownership of bank account and borrowing from the commercial bank have a positive impact on employment creation in the short run. Similarly, in the long run, availability of bank branches, ownership of bank account has a positive relationship with employment creation in the long run. Depositors with commercial banks has a negative bearing on employment creation, both in the short run and in the long run. Therefore, policies should be aimed at ensuring easy access into the financial sector by way of reducing costs associated with account opening as well as creating affordable deposit and borrowing windows to the financially excluded groups.
Topic:
Economics, Labor Issues, Employment, Finance, Financial Markets, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana

1759. Environmental regulation in a transitional political system: delegation of regulation and perceived corruption in South Africa

Author:
Pedro Naso
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Environmental Studies, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:
I study the economic motivations behind a reduction in the discretionary power of environmental regulators, and the impact that such reduction has on perceived corruption in South Africa. I examine the transition from the Air Pollution Protection Act of 1965 to the Air Quality Act of 2005, a change from full to partial delegation of regulation. By constructing a principal-agent model, I argue that this transition might have occurred because of an increase in the dispersion of rent-seeking motivations of public agents. This happens because, from the principal’s perspective, the possible harm— loose pollution control and misappropriation of environmental fines— generated by corrupt agents is greater than the potential benefits brought by diligent agents. In my empirical analysis, I use diff-indiffs models for a two-period panel with 191 South African firms to show that the regulatory change decreased treated firms’ perceived corruption, but did not improve other institutional quality measures.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Environment, Regulation, and Pollution
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

1760. Impacts of legal and regulatory institutions on economic development

Author:
Pedro Naso
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Environmental Studies, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:
Since the second half of the 20th century, with the contributions of Coase, Williamson and North, the economic literature has emphasised the role of institutions in explaining differences in economic performance. According to the most diffused view, countries with good institutions will invest more in physical and human capital, will use productive factors in a more efficient way, and will achieve greater income level. But what are good institutions? And how should governments implement them? Answers to these questions have proven to be difficult mainly because of two characteristics of institutions: (i) institutional functioning is complex: the way institutions affect economic agents’ incentives is dependent on these agents’ individual preferences and the way they interact, which are difficult to predict; and (ii) they are context specific – the same institution in different contexts might result in a different economic outcome.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Environment, Regulation, and Economic Policy
Political Geography:
Africa, South Africa, and Sierra Leone

1761. Climate Change, Carbon Politics, and Kenya’s Democratic Future

Author:
Jacqueline M. Klopp and Abdullahi Boru Halakhe
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
Carbon politics is playing out in oil-producing African countries with lethal consequences. Countries like Nigeria, Angola, Sudan, and South Sudan are conflict-ridden and economically unequal, and, as climate change concerns clash with new fossil fuel-driven development efforts, carbon politics is taking on ever-greater significance. While the scramble for fossil fuels could increase authoritarianism as it spreads in East Africa, an ecologically-driven imperative to address climate change could reinforce stronger democratic institutions.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Oil, Natural Resources, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, Nigeria, Angola, East Africa, and South Sudan

1762. LGBTIQ Rights in Kenya: On Artivism and Social Change

Author:
Deborah P. Amory
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
The struggle for LGBTIQ rights in Kenya provides a unique and fascinating case study of the powerful social change taking place right now. On May 24, 2019, the High Court of Kenya will rule on whether to decriminalize same-sex relationships, which are currently punishable by up to fourteen years in prison. The court was originally scheduled to decide this case in February but delayed the ruling, citing mounds of documents that had still not been read. Activists pointed out that judges had already had several years to read the documents, and some worried that the delay was a sign of government interference with the judicial process.
Topic:
Social Movement, Political Activism, Courts, and LGBT+
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

1763. Lessons from South Africa’s 2019 Elections

Author:
Rhoda Osei-Afful
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Ghana Center for Democratic Development
Abstract:
The ANC's 50-50 policy ensured that 50% of its candidate list for Natonal Assembly seats were women.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, Democracy, and Political and institutional effectiveness
Political Geography:
Africa, South Africa, and Ghana

1764. The Way Forward for Legal Education Reform in Ghana

Author:
S. Kwaku Asare
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Ghana Center for Democratic Development
Abstract:
Abstract
Topic:
Education, Law, and Legal Theory
Political Geography:
Africa and Ghana

1765. From Manifesto Promise to Policy Implementation: Analysis of Government’s Infrastructure for Poverty Eradication Program

Author:
Gilfred Asiamah, Awal Swallah, Kojo Asante, and Samuel Baaye
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Ghana Center for Democratic Development
Abstract:
The Ghana Center for Democratic Development (CDD-Ghana) with funding support from the Department for International Development (DFID) under its Strengthening Action Against Corruption (STAAC) program has initiated a project to track the implementation of the government's flagship Infrastructure for Poverty Eradication Program (IPEP).
Topic:
Government, Poverty, Inequality, State Actors, and Economic Policy
Political Geography:
Africa and Ghana

1766. The Development of Hydrocarbons in East Africa: Political and Security Challenges

Author:
Benjamin Augé
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
East Africa has the potential to experience a gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) export boom in the coming years due to several projects that have been released. Mozambique has approved two projects totaling more than 15 million tons per year (Mt/yr.) of liquefied gas and a third should be started by the end of 2019. The first ENI Floating Liquefied Natural Gas plant (FLNG) will come onto the market in 2022 and four other onshore liquefaction trains, two of which will produce 6.44 Mt (Anadarko/Total) and two of which will produce 7.6 Mt (ExxonMobil/ENI), will be available around 2025. However, with the recoverable reserves, the companies involved are counting on 50 or even 60 Mt/yr. by 2030. This volume will help this East African country to achieve the world’s fourth-largest LNG export capacity in the medium term after the United States, Qatar and Australia. As for Tanzania, no development should be approved before 2020 in the best-case scenario.
Topic:
Security, Development, Oil, and Gas
Political Geography:
Uganda, Kenya, Africa, Mozambique, Tanzania, and East Africa

1767. Angola under Joao Lourenço: Who Are the New Players of MPLA State?

Author:
Benjamin Augé
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
In 2017, the coming to power of João Lourenço put an end to nearly four decades of rule by the former head of state, José Eduardo Dos Santos. João Lourenço’s first objective was to strengthen his authority by appointing people close to him and cadres from the old regime, who had professed loyalty to him, to high office. The speed of the takeover of all the decision-making centers – army, intelligence services, state-owned companies, oil industry and above all the MPLA (Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola) party-state – by the new “Comrade Number One” surprised the leaders of the Dos Santos era, some of whom were abruptly dismissed or even sentenced to prison. Now firmly established in Angola’s command centers, João Lourenço is however facing a serious economic crisis, the most worrying for the country since the end of the civil war in 2002.
Topic:
Economics, Politics, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa and Angola

1768. Malawi: The Road to the 2019 Tripartite Elections. Reflections on Corruption, Land and Multiparty Politics

Author:
Stephanie Regalia
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
On May 21st 2019, Malawi will hold its tripartite elections, where voters will vote for the President, Members of Parliament and local Councillors. 2019 will also mark the 25 years of multiparty politics in Malawi since the one-party regime presided by Hastings Kamuzu Banda came to an end in 1994. The transition to multiparty democracy has been encouraging with the number of large political parties steadily growing and power peacefully changing hands between the four presidents, the country has known since 1994. In this context, the race to the 2019 elections is particularly competitive. The most recent polls place voter intention for the outgoing president Peter Mutharika and his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) at a near tie with the lead opposition candidate Lazarus Chakwera of the Malawi Congress Party (MCP). The MCP used to be the only authorized political party under Hastings Kamuzu Banda’s rule. Its return to the forefront of voter intentions signals important changes in the landscape of political actors in Malawi. This paper explores some of the reasons behind this changing political landscape. It looks at the DPP’s recent loss of support due to discontent with rampant corruption and a controversial land reform passed in 2016. It also examines the landscape of challengers, including the current Vice President Saulos Chilima, following his departure from DPP ranks to form a new political movement, the United Transformation Movement (UTM). Given the diversity of large political parties in contention, which also includes Atupele Muluzi’s United Democratic Front (UDF) and Joyce Banda’s People’s Party (PP), the possibility of securing victory in the 2019 presidential election may rest on the ability of political parties to form strategic electoral alliances. This may require moving past political parties formed solely around the personality and identity of their leaders to a more issue-based political debate.
Topic:
Corruption, Politics, Elections, Land, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
Africa and Malawi

1769. Engagement of Executive Outcomes in Sierra Leone – utility assessment

Author:
Mateusz Maciąg
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
War Studies University
Abstract:
Objectives: The article explores combat related Private Military Companies (PMCs) that are authorised to engage in the forefront of the battlefield as dedicated force multipliers. Methods: To supplement empirical data with qualitative observation, the methodology applies the case study and observation method. Considering assistance in conflict termination as a dependent variable, the methodology evaluates the case study of Executive Outcomes in Sierra Leone and, to impose a framework for observation, deconstructs that case with seven independent variables: competence, effectiveness, flexibility, field cooperation with conventional forces, cost efficiency, impact on military and the state-to-PMC balance. Results: The methodology indicates what factors were prevalent in effective conflict management and what indicators entailed chal- lenges. The results advocate for the competence, flexibility, effectiveness and cooperation with armed forces to be deemed conclusive in positive PMC engagement, whereas the cost efficiency, impact on conventional military and the state-to-PMC balance require improvement. Conclusions: Since governments have continued to be hesitant (justified either by financial, geopolitical or social incen- tives) towards overseas military operations where asymmetric warfare is taking place, PMCs stepped in to fill the se- curity void. Therefore, this paper argues that PMCs are here to stay; however, the literature hasn’t rigorously ex- plored the subject matter to determine whether indicators of success and failure exist to evaluate the PMC outcome. This paper also precipitates natural outgrowth in the scholarship by composing the benchmark that synthesises relevant data.
Topic:
Armed Forces, Private Sector, and Private Military Companies (PMCs)
Political Geography:
Africa and Sierra Leone

1770. The Political Economy of Diaspora Remittances in the Ethiopian Somali Region

Author:
Kassahun Berhanu
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The global Somali diaspora plays a key role in local livelihoods, economies and politics. This is also the case in Ethiopia´s Somali region. The Ethiopian government has deliberately sought to harness investments in local trade and business by its various diaspora communities. As this DIIS Working Paper highlights, interactions between the diaspora and the regional government have taken on a new dynamic in recent years in the Somali region. In exchange for securing their loyalty to the government and its development plans, diaspora returnees and investors obtain various privileges including access to loans. In this scenario of state-led diaspora engagement, the Ethiopian-Somali diaspora is by law prevented from playing a political role in its home country, but nonetheless contributes to stabilizing the current administration. While Ethiopia’s diaspora policy appears successful overall, it is partly undermined by clan favouritism and multiple bureaucratic hurdles. This DIIS Working Paper is written by Professor Kassahun Berhanu (Addis Ababa University and Forum for Social Studies, Addis Ababa)and is an output of the research program ‘Governing Economic Hubs and Flows in Somali East Africa'. The paper is edited by Tobias Hagmann and Finn Stepputat.
Topic:
Political Economy, Politics, Diaspora, Economy, Business, Investment, and Trade
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

1771. Trade And Foreign Direct Investment Nexus In West Africa: Does Export Category Matter?

Author:
Chukwuka Onyekwena, Idris Adermuyiwa, and Eberechukwu Uneze
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa (CSEA)
Abstract:
This paper examines the effect of inward FDI in West Africa on exports to EU countries. It investigates from a host country perspective, the impact of FDI on different export categories: primary, intermediate, and final goods.
Topic:
Economics, Foreign Direct Investment, European Union, Exports, and Trade
Political Geography:
Africa and West Africa

1772. The Fate of Xolobeni Would Be the Fate Of Us All

Author:
Kevin Bloom
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
Since 1996, activists in Xolobeni, a coastal region in South Africa, have been fighting a foreign mining conglomerate that learned that their ancestral lands happen to be rich in titanium. The anti-mining activists of Xolobeni, who have lost many comrades to hit squads, continue to struggle against this foreign company and its partners in the South African government. Given that their land is located in a global biodiversity hotspot, their struggle is the struggle of us all: it is the fight for water, soil, food, and air.
Topic:
Government, Water, Food, Foreign Interference, and Biodiversity
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

1773. A Brief History of South Africa’s Industrial and Commercial Workers’ Union (1919-1931)

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
The Industrial & Commercial Workers’ Union (ICU) – a trade union, rural peasant movement, and urban squatters’ movement – formed on the docks in Cape Town in 1919. Within a decade, the ICU had expanded across Southern Africa without regard for national borders and counted people from various African countries and the Caribbean in its leadership, as well as people who were Indian and mixed race. The largely forgotten history of the ICU is well worth recovering in a time of escalating chauvinism and xenophobia. Our Dossier #20 offers an introduction to this extraordinary popular movement.
Topic:
Industrial Policy, Labor Issues, Trade Unions, and Labor Unions
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

1774. Assessment of the Economic Costs of Electrical Power Outages in Swaziland

Author:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre (ESEPARC)
Abstract:
Electricity access has improved significantly since introduction of the National Energy Policy of 2003. However, challenges in electricity supply still exist due to the frequency of interruptions, which has resulted in harsh penalties and costs to the economy. In 2016, power outages cost Swaziland E700 million in nominal monetary terms, representing 1.67% of Swaziland’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). If not addressed, the problems with the electricity sector will severely undermine the government’s effort to improve the development of the country. In essence, the benefits of increased access to the electricity grid will not be realised if power supply is as unreliable as it currently is. Considerable effort should be made to ensure that the country’s electricity supply system is stable and uninterrupted. Hence, in order to achieve this, there is need for policy attention towards improving the energy sector through investments in electricity generation using renewable energy sources, expediting the promotion of decentralised electricity generation to vulnerable areas, and setting stringent standards for the generation and distribution of electricity.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, Infrastructure, and Electricity
Political Geography:
Africa and Swaziland

1775. Quantifying the Size and Development of the Shadow Economy in Swaziland

Author:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre (ESEPARC)
Abstract:
The size of the shadow economy has been declining at a slow rate over the past 16 years in Swaziland. The size of the shadow economy was found to be 37.4 % in 2016. This was equivalent to E20.5 billion of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2016. The key drives of the shadow economy in Swaziland were found to be the tax burden (direct and indirect taxation), self-employment, the importance of the agricultural sector and the institutional quality of governance institutions. For the country to fast tract its developmental agenda (Vision 2022), it is important for the country to enact policies that will harness and transition the shadow economy into the mainstream economy by targeting the drivers of the shadow economy locally.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Governance, and GDP
Political Geography:
Africa and Swaziland

1776. The Socio-Economic Impacts of the 2015/16 EL Niño Induced Drought in Swaziland

Author:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre (ESEPARC)
Abstract:
The 2015/16 El Niño drought proved to be the worst drought Swaziland has experienced since 1992. In total nominal monetary terms, the drought cost Swaziland minimally E3.843 billion, representing a 7.01% of Swaziland’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2016 or 18.58% of government expenditure in 2016. Despite the significant drought losses, the country has on paper a solid Disaster Risk Management (DRM) Policy (2010). However, even with extensive experience from past droughts in 2009/10, 2007, 2001, and 1992, the country is still struggling to become drought proof. The reason Swaziland is so affected by drought is that the country’s economic backbone rests on agriculture. The inherent vulnerability to drought is that the food production system in the country is still highly dependent on direct rainfall. Due to chronic drought-like conditions in the Shiselweni and Lubombo regions, households in these regions are now discouraged from participating in agriculture. To illustrate, an assessment of agricultural assets in households reveals that household participation in agriculture is less than 30%, with a measly national average of 25.3%. As a result, the country is now too dependent on the international, basically South African, market for its basic food needs. The implication is that as droughts become more frequent, their impact on the country will be detrimental to the economy, particularly on rural livelihoods.
Topic:
Economics, Environment, Natural Disasters, Socioeconomics, and Drought
Political Geography:
Africa and Swaziland

1777. The Economic Benefits of Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) in the Kingdom of Swaziland: A case of the National Handicraft Training Centre (NHTC)

Author:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre (ESEPARC)
Abstract:
Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) in Swaziland is key for employment and self-employment opportunities which result in economic growth. TVET has proven to be an educational pathway that can be used to significantly reduce the unemployment rate by 2022. TVET graduates acquire skills that empower them to be immediately absorbed by the labour market and/or be self-employed. About 73.1% of the graduates are in productive employment after graduating from NHTC; with 47.6% formally employed, 25.5% self-employed, while 26.2% were unemployed in the period 1995 – 2015. The Benefit-Cost Ratio of NHTC, based on the Government of Swaziland and the Republic of China on Taiwan’s investment in NHTC, is 1:4.66. This means for every E1 invested in NHTC, the economy realises E4.66 through the income generating activities of graduates. The positive return on investment in NHTC indicates that if Government can increase funding to TVET institutions, the economic return can make significant contributions to skills development and GDP growth in the country.
Topic:
Economics, Education, Labor Issues, and Employment
Political Geography:
Africa and Swaziland

1778. Capacity profiling and needs assessment of the public service of Swaziland

Author:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre (ESEPARC)
Abstract:
Governments are constantly under pressure to improve public sector performance and at the same time restrain expenditure growth. Public sector organisations are responsible for providing the necessary public goods and services to the citizens, hence the administration of the public service is traditionally grounded in the achievement of efficiency in the work of its departments in pursuance of goals related to service provision (Manzoor 2014). Some scholars argue that the efficiency of the public sector is key to delivering a ‘smarter state’ capable not only of delivering more for less, but better public services, which requires an evidence-based understanding of what the public service has been able to deliver so far, the drivers of these outcomes and the different options available (Hawkins et al. 2016). Swaziland’s private sector, non-governmental organisations, and the public feel that while the country’s public service is evolving, it is still grappling with finding an ideal management style that will ensure better service provision, but in the process of evolution, service delivery of public goods remains compromised, hence customer satisfaction is low. So what can be done to improve the efficiency and performance of the public service? Analysts argue that implementing e-governance has brought unprecedented efficiencies in the work of government to serve citizens (Manzoor 2014). To achieve this and more, governments are widening their base of development partners who can assist in capacity building for civil servants, and funding for the implementation of its programmes.
Topic:
Development, Governance, Public Sector, and Public Service
Political Geography:
Africa and Swaziland

1779. Quantifying a living wage in Swaziland: A case of the handicraft sector

Author:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre (ESEPARC)
Abstract:
The Swaziland MDG Report (MDGR, 2015) documents that to improve wellbeing in Swaziland beyond 2015 requires the country to accelerate efforts geared toward creating lucrative employment and decent work for all, including women, the youth, and people living with disabilities. This is pertinent for the Kingdom of Swaziland given that 28.1% of the economically active population was unemployed in 2014 (ILFS, 2014). Others have argued that the unemployment rate is higher in rural areas, where the actual figure is probably more than 40% (Manyatsi et al., 2013). The handicraft sector has the potential to provide mass employment opportunities. However, undermining handicraft in Swaziland is a lack of appreciation of the potential this sector has toward changing the economic status and livelihoods of the people (Bam, 2014). As a result, the sector is notorious for paying low wages that do not support a decent standard of living, particularly in rural areas. Poor pay or low wages can have adverse impacts on economic growth by depressing per capita consumption.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Employment, Standard of Living, and Wages
Political Geography:
Africa and Swaziland

1780. Predictors of food insecurity in Swaziland: Lessons from the 2015/16 El Niño induced drought

Author:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre (ESEPARC)
Abstract:
The National Food Security Policy (NFSP) 2005 stresses recurrent droughts and the high incidence of HIV/AIDS in Swaziland as the major contributing factors towards adverse food insecurity in the country. Consistently, when droughts hit the country, food production plummets and pushes a significant portion of the population into food insecurity. An investigation of the predictors of food insecurity among households during the 2015/16 drought provides information on the households that are prone to drought induced food insecurity, so as to inform food security risk mapping in the country. The assessment found that the most significant factors associated with increased food insecurity odds at the household level include households in the Lubombo region which is the poorest among the four regions. Households that do not have toilet facilities in their homesteads, those that depend on rainwater and boreholes as their main source of drinking water, as well as households that use lanterns or oil lamps as their main source of lighting are more likely to be food insecure. Another important factor that can be a good predictor of increased food insecurity during a drought is the ownership and use of tractors and hoes within households that depend on crop production as one of the main sources of food.
Topic:
Environment, Natural Disasters, Food, and Food Security
Political Geography:
Africa and Swaziland

1781. Swaziland Research and Development Statistics: Findings from the 2015/16 Swaziland National Research and Development Survey

Author:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre (ESEPARC)
Abstract:
For many years, data on Science, Technology, and Research and Development (R&D) indicators in Swaziland have been missing. Not surprisingly, the country has been unable to monitor its progress and performance on scientific and technological development. This is notwithstanding that the Kingdom of Swaziland’s revised National Development Strategy (NDS) (2016) commits the country to drive social and economic development by intensifying efforts and investment into research, innovation, science, and technology. The ultimate goal is to use R&D to inspire large gains in productivity, especially in the agricultural and manufacturing sector (GoS, 2016). The importance attached to R&D in Swaziland is demonstrated in the country’s investment into a science and technology park, which houses both a biotechnology and an innovation park. Around the world, science, technology, and innovation (STI) is acknowledged as a driver of social and economic development and more recently, as a means to attain the sustainable development goals (SDGs). STI indicators are important as a starting point for monitoring progress on scientific and technological development and for formulating responsive STI policies.
Topic:
Civil Society, Development, Research, and Social Order
Political Geography:
Africa and Swaziland

1782. The Implication of Teenage Pregnancies in Eswatini: A Trend and Spatial Analysis

Author:
N. Diamini
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre (ESEPARC)
Abstract:
This study assesses the extent of teenage pregnancy in Eswatini with a focus on public schools in the constituencies and region. In addition, the study examines which regions are affected by teenage pregnancies and adopts a Generalised Ordered Logit Model to determine the likelihood of teenage pregnancies across the regions in Eswatini. The study locates the Hhohho and Manzini regions as high teenage pregnancy areas and further identifies mothers in Lubombo and Shiselweni as more vulnerable to repeat births. Not surprisingly, the study finds that teenage pregnancies occur in Eswatini’s poverty-stricken areas – where there are low economic activities and the households are experiencing low incomes. These are places such as Madlangempisi, Ngwempisi, Sigwe, and Lomahasha. Teenage pregnancies occur when learners are idle during school holidays. The government is advised to consider intensifying policies and programmes geared towards reducing or eradicating teenage pregnancies in Eswatini. Such policies should deliberately target rural areas and focus on creating employment opportunities to relieve households from low incomes.
Topic:
Health, Children, Sex Education, and Gender
Political Geography:
Africa and Eswatini

1783. Financial Inclusion in Eswatini: What is Driving the Adoption of Mobile Money?

Author:
T. Magongo
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre (ESEPARC)
Abstract:
Mobile money has gained increasing importance and prominence in many sub-Saharan African countries and as a result, it is seen as a possible key to fast-tracking financial inclusion in developing countries including Eswatini. Although financial inclusion rates have improved considerably in Eswatini, the adoption of mobile money is still relatively low in the country compared to other countries in sub-Saharan Africa, yet a majority of the population knows about the technology. This study investigates the driving factors of mobile money adoption in Eswatini using a logit and probit analysis based on the 2014 FinScope Financial Access and Consumer Survey. Findings reveal that the likelihood of using mobile money increases with increasing levels of financial literacy, education, sending and receiving remittances using mobile money, usage of informal financial products, living in an urban area, and adjusting income during times of shock. Results suggest opportunities for financial inclusiveness such as designing and implementation of financial literacy education and money management programs, purposely targeting the underserved population (rural), as well as informal financial product usage formalization.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Finance, Economic Mobility, and Financial Institutions
Political Geography:
Africa and Eswatini

1784. Inequality of Opportunities in Education in Eswatini

Author:
Nhlanhla Zulu
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre (ESEPARC)
Abstract:
This study quantifies inequality of opportunity in education in Eswatini using Multiple Indicator Cluster and Demographic and Housing Surveys. Using the “ex-ante” approach, the study identifies potential sources of inequality at all levels of the general education system in Eswatini and how these interplay with learner achievement. The study finds that, on average, circumstances account for a low portion of the variance (approximately 23.7%) in learner attainment. This measure is higher for learners aged 15 to 18 years. This means that, as the learner grows, the influence of unequal circumstances on educational attainment increases. In addition, family background variables like household wealth and education of household head are the main sources of inequality of opportunity. Therefore, opportunity equalising policies are required at all levels of the general education system in Eswatini.
Topic:
Education, Inequality, and Opportunity
Political Geography:
Africa and Eswatini

1785. Implications of migration to cost-reflective tariffs in Eswatini’s electricity sector

Author:
Mangaliso Mohammed and Thabo Sacolo
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre (ESEPARC)
Abstract:
The study investigates the possible impacts of migrating to cost reflective tariffs in Eswatini’s electricity sector. This involves assessing the electricity consumptions patterns of the different electricity customer categories in relation to the electricity tariffs to estimate potential responses to future price changes that might be induced by cost-reflective tariffs. For the domestic customer category, the study uses the own-price elasticity method while for the non-domestic customer it estimates the elasticities using the Seemingly Unrelated Regression adopted from Inglesi-Lotz and Blignaut (2011). The study finds that a 2 cent real increase in electricity tariff is associated with a decrease in average consumption of 185.6 kWh for the domestic customer. Average elasticity over the 21-year period is -0.58 implying that domestic customers do not respond much to changes in electricity tariffs. For the non-residential customers, the industrial customer group is the only group significantly impacted by changes in electricity tariff. The elasticity coefficient for the industrial customer group is -0.157, which implies that even though this customer group responds to changes in electricity tariff, a proportionate increase in electricity price results in a less than proportionate decrease in electricity consumed. Overall, the study finds that demand for electricity for both domestic and non-domestic customer group is not responsive to changes in electricity tariff, that is, demand is inelastic. This means the cost reflective tariffs will most likely decrease intensive use of electricity in Eswatini, especially for low income households, which will make extending the grid and supplying electricity to low income households a much more expensive endeavour for the utility. The study recommends that before implementing the cost-reflective tariffs, the energy regulator (ESERA) should ensure that the utility (EEC) establishes efficiency improvements on the supply and distribution of electricity in Eswatini. In the long-run Eswatini should expedite national plans to increase local production of power to reduce the cost of power.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Migration, Borders, Tariffs, Local, and Electricity
Political Geography:
Africa and Eswatini

1786. Harnessing the Demographic Dividend to Fast-Track Industrialisation: A Case in the ICT sector

Author:
Tengetile G. Hlophe and Thula Dlamini
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre (ESEPARC)
Abstract:
Eswatini ranks very low in the Global Competitiveness Index (GCI). Conceivably, this draws from the fact that Eswatini is a consumer of goods and services produced from outside the economy. In this paper, we use data from the GCI, International Telecommunications Union (ITU), and Global Innovation Index (GII) to argue that Eswatini should focus its industrial policy towards the creation of tacit productive capacities amongst SMEs in the manufacturing sector to drive large-scale industrialisation. The paper shows that by doing this, Eswatini will position herself to be a leader in the manufacture of industrial goods in the region and in the long-term be able to attract foreign investors to the country. In particular, the study analyses panel data of 5 African countries to illustrate that manufacturing in the ICT sector could contribute to increased economic growth, particularly if targeted towards technologies that are in high demand among the youth- such as smartphones, laptops, and other similar gadgets. The paper juxtaposes its main treatise with Africa’s youth bulge and shows that with every 1% increase in the youth population there will be a 4.79% increase in the adoption and usage of ICTs by the youth. This suggests that there is an opportunity for the country to anchor its industrial policy on the production of those technologies that are in high demand amongst the youth. The key message in the paper is that building tacit knowledge and skills in the manufacturing of high technology products could reduce youth unemployment, attract foreign investments, and create opportunities for industrial development and industrialisation. The paper concludes with some considerations for industrial policy in Eswatini.
Topic:
Demographics, Development, Manufacturing, Industrialization, and Industry
Political Geography:
Africa and Eswatini

1787. Innovation in Eswatini: past, present, and future prospects

Author:
Tengetile G. Hlophe and Thula Dlamini
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre (ESEPARC)
Abstract:
Innovation is a catalyst for social and economic development and as such a precondition for progress. Given the need to increase economic activity and expand GDP in Eswatini, this study documents the history of innovation in Eswatini and assesses the potential for the traditional sector as a source of new growth. The study purposively sampled and interviewed 129 producers in the Manzini, Mbabane, and Ezulwini market places and complemented the surveys with an extensive analysis of the innovation and industrial development literature in Eswatini. The study finds that whereas Emaswati are innovative, innovation has been incremental and driven by global technological developments, government policy, new market opportunities, and changes in lifestyle and society. The study confirms that the traditional sector is a viable source of new growth. However, to realise its true potential there is a need to address the demand and supply side factors that inhibit production and innovation in traditional industries. Therefore combining modern technology with traditional knowledge and skills presents opportunities for value creation, product development or improvement, differentiation, and improving the competitiveness of Eswatini’s indigenous products in global markets. However, for this to happen requires investments in research and experimental development, innovative marketing strategies, innovation, and setting of progressive standards and quality assurance systems.
Topic:
Development, Global Markets, Research, and Innovation
Political Geography:
Africa and Eswatini

1788. Economic Impact Analysis of Credit Guarantee Schemes in Eswatini: A Case of the Small Scale Enterprise Loan Guarantee Scheme (SSELGS)

Author:
Maqhawe Zwane
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre (ESEPARC)
Abstract:
Using data from 315 beneficiaries of the Small Scale Enterprise Loan Guarantee Scheme, this study assesses the impact of the Small Scale Loan Guarantee Scheme. The study assessed both the financial and economic additionality of the scheme. The study used a structured questionnaire and face-to-face interviews to elicit data from beneficiaries whereas key informant interviews were used to elicit data from participating banks. The study also assessed visibility of the scheme as well as its efficiency in terms of loan approval period and claim processes. From the sampled beneficiaries, 174 SMEs would not have accessed credit if the scheme was non-existent. Collectively, these SMEs received E42, 918,616.00. On the other hand, 72 of the 174 started new businesses and at the time of the interview, they collectively employ 681 people. The study found that the default rate is high at 44.3 %. The approval period of loan application varies widely, with some respondents reporting a period of less than a month while others reported a period of up to four years. The study concludes that the scheme has made a positive impact in both financial and economic additionality. However, two factors (inefficiency in scheme’s operation and high default rate) threaten the scheme’s existence. It is therefore a recommended that scheme managers should put measures to curb the default rate and improve the efficiency and visibility of the scheme.
Topic:
Economics, Business, Credit, and Loans
Political Geography:
Africa and Eswatini

1789. Exploring the relationship between unemployment and mental illness among the youth in selected communities of Eswatini.

Author:
Thula Dlamini, Tengetile G. Hlophe, and Mangaliso Mohammed
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre (ESEPARC)
Abstract:
Studies have demonstrated that the effects and consequences of a lack of work has detrimental effects on one’s mental health. With high levels of youth unemployment presenting a threat to the country’s efforts to sustainable economic development the study seeks to understand the link between the increasing mental illness cases and rising youth unemployment in Eswatini. Using secondary data from the Health Management System, the study traces the areas that have high reported cases of mental illness and conducts 99 semi-structured interviews within these case areas. A rapid assessment is used to assess the relationship between mental health and youth unemployment. Using Jahoda’s latent deprivation model, the study finds that youth unemployment negatively affects mental health particularly through increased idleness and stress leading to high levels of substance abuse, which has a negative impact on mental health. The study also finds that mental health disorders such as anxiety, depression and sometimes schizophrenia are exacerbated by the lack of recreational and structured activities for out of school and unemployed youth in Eswatini. Therefore, policy makers should consider the impact of youth unemployment on mental health as a way of investing in Eswatini’s human capital, thus creating more economically productive interventions for youth to undertake during the periods of unemployment and being out of school.
Topic:
Health, Employment, Youth, Mental Health, and Unemployment
Political Geography:
Africa and Eswatini

1790. Stokvels: An Instrument for Income Generation and Wealth Creation?

Author:
Ntando Nkambule and Mangaliso Mohammed
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre (ESEPARC)
Abstract:
Stokvels are increasingly being recognised as a solution to contribute to income generation and wealth creation, especially amongst low-income earners who are excluded from the formal financial markets. This study investigates the contribution of stokvels to income generation and wealth creation in Eswatini focusing on the poorest region, Lubombo. The study uses 436 stokvel participants which were accessible through NGOs (Joyful-heart, Bantwana Initiative, Imbita Women Finance Trust, and World Vision) which promote savings groups in the country, Lubombo region. The study employs Principal Component-based asset index as a proxy for assets accumulation (wealth creation). The findings from the descriptive statistics indicate that women are dominating stokvels participation in households. In support of income generation, the participants in the study are capable of saving up to E796,123 per annum, and the total loan amount issued increases the total contributions by 6.7%. The generated revenue results for a total of E0.8m. Even though the prominent goals for most of the participants are consumptive, still members can acquire assets and accumulate wealth through borrowing before the cycle matures, thus significantly increasing their socioeconomic status. The study recommends an establishment of a stokvel representative body (such as Eswatini National Association of Stokvels) to capture the Lilangeni value of stokvels that generate in the informal economy, as well as assist in promoting stokvels campaigns for information exchange platform, deal with other stokvels issues of interest, and create and monitor a stokvel data base in the country.
Topic:
Poverty, NGOs, Unemployment, Wealth, and Income
Political Geography:
Africa and Eswatini

1791. An Insight into Community-Based Ecotourism in Eswatini: Theory versus Practice

Author:
Tamika Du-Pont and Thabo Sacolo
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre (ESEPARC)
Abstract:
The study provides a baseline of the performance of Community-based Ecotourism (CBET) ventures in Eswatini using primary data collected from 186 participants. The data was collected through face-to-face interviews amongst across five CBET sites. Descriptive and thematic analysis were used to identify; the benefits of CBET accrued to host communities, challenges communities experience in providing goods and services to CBET ventures, and the factors preventing broad based participation. Frequencies of responses were used to determine the perceptions and attitudes of host communities towards CBET. The study finds that many of the promises of CBET have not been fully met in Eswatini. Economic benefits have not been widespread and remain minimal, with approximately 42 jobs in total. Participants receive an average monthly income of E1457.40 ± 933.80, an indication of high disparities in monetary incentives amongst participants. The study finds that CBET has been a catalyst for infrastructural development within rural landscapes and provides participants with additional intangible benefits such as a sense of empowerment and belonging. Poor infrastructural maintenance, inadequate marketing and declining tourist visitations are major threats to the sustainability of CBET ventures. Efforts to augment the performance of CBET in Eswatini should focus on investment in research and monitoring of present and potential new CBET ventures. The study recommends integrated and inclusive policies that will promote and allow for expanded local production in the tourism supply chain, partnerships between host communities and industry experts, and local capacity enhancement to reignite CBET within the tourism sector as a serious contender for economic growth.
Topic:
Economics, Tourism, Employment, and Community
Political Geography:
Africa and Eswatini

1792. Assessing the Relationship between Brain Drain and the Economy of Eswatini

Author:
Zamokuhle Manana
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre (ESEPARC)
Abstract:
Eswatini has been experiencing the brain drain phenomenon since the early 90s. Previous studies on the phenomenon attribute the brain drain to high unemployment and the labour market’s inability to absorb emaSwati. With that said, there are still no studies have been conducted to quantify the impacts of brain drain on the economy of the country given its upward trajectory. It is on this premise, that this paper quantifies and assess the relationship between brain drain and economic growth in the short-run. To this end, the study employs secondary annual time series data from the World Bank Indicators for the period 1991 to 2017. The study employs the Bounds approach for co-integration and the short-run Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model as estimation techniques. The bounds test found that there is no long-run equilibrium relationship between the variables. According to the ARDL short-run model the study found that all other things being equal, when brain drain increases by 1 percent at a given time period, Gross Domestic Product increase by E171 million the following year in the short-run. Furthermore, the Granger causality test reveals a unidirectional relationship running from Gross Domestic Product to brain drain at the 1% significance level, that is, past economic growth trends is an important predictor of future brain drain trends.
Topic:
Economics, Intelligence, GDP, and Unemployment
Political Geography:
Africa and Eswatini

1793. Africa Capacity Report 2019: Fostering Transformative Leadership for Africa’s Development

Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The African Capacity Building Foundation (ACBF)
Abstract:
The Africa Capacity Report 2019 (ACR 2019), with Foreword authored by President Paul Kagame of Rwanda and chair of the African Union until this January 2019, provides a snapshot of leadership capacity in Africa based on independent survey data from over 46 African countries. ACR 2019 addresses the capacity dimensions of transformative leadership both in public and private sectors. It looks at the major elements of transformative leadership in Africa, highlights the leadership capacity gaps related to achieving sustainable development on the continent, and identifies strategies for addressing them. Most importantly, ACR 2019 offers concrete recommendations for improving performance, combining both technical elements and the mindset changes that are necessary for success. Finally, the Report calls for increased investment in leadership capacity development at all levels, especially in government service.
Topic:
Development, Leadership, Public Sector, Capacity, Private Sector, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
Africa

1794. To Shoot or to Defect? Military Responses to the Arab Uprisings

Author:
Nael Shama
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International and Regional Studies (CIRS), Georgetown University in Qatar
Abstract:
By examining the events of the Arab uprisings, this paper looks into the nature and dynamics of armies’ responses to popular uprisings. It argues that the outcome of the massive, regime-threatening Arab revolts in 2011 can be assessed by how a military responded to protests: did the army shoot protesters, did it stay idle, or did it largely defect? In light of the rich literature available on the historical experience of the “Arab Spring,” this paper shows that an army’s response to end popular uprisings in authoritarian regimes is determined by several key factors: the military’s level of institutionalization; its relationship to the regime; the degree of the regime’s legitimacy; the amount of international aid it receives; the prospects of foreign intervention; and, finally, the strength of the army’s bond with society and its perception of its own role within society. Additionally, there is a factor often overlooked by scholars; namely, how the military assesses a regime’s capacity to solve the crisis in order to triumph. The paper draws on evidence from the six cases of the 2011 Arab Spring—Egypt, Syria, Bahrain, Yemen, Libya, and Tunisia—to illustrate the dynamics of troop loyalty or defection.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, Social Movement, Arab Spring, and Protests
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Syria, Egypt, Bahrain, and Tunisia

1795. Norm and Dissidence: Egyptian Shiʿa between Security Approaches and Geopolitical Stakes

Author:
Stéphane Valter
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International and Regional Studies (CIRS), Georgetown University in Qatar
Abstract:
This paper presents a study of Egyptian Shiʿism by providing historical context as well as a focus on actual or current issues. The study includes a historical overview of local Shiʿism (Fatimid period, late nineteenth century, 1940s–1960s, and contemporary period); Shiʿi institutions and personalities; the situation following Egypt’s 2011 revolution; the hectic one-year government of the Muslim Brotherhood (2012–2013); President al-Sisi’s authoritarian takeover; and, finally, an exploration of the current geopolitical stakes, focusing mainly on the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran over religious hegemony.
Topic:
Security, Geopolitics, and Shia
Political Geography:
Africa, Iran, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt

1796. The Impact of Information and Communication Technologies on Jobs in Africa: A Literature Review

Author:
Elvis Melia
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
In the past two decades, Africa has experienced a wave of mobile telephony and the early stages of internet connectivity. This paper summarises recent empirical research findings on the impact that information and communication technologies (ICTs) have had on jobs in Africa, be it in creating new jobs, destroying old jobs, or changing the quality of existing jobs in levels of productivity, incomes, or working conditions. The paper discusses various channels in which ICTs can impact jobs: In theory, they have the potential to allow for text-based services platforms that can help farmers and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) become more productive or receive better access to market information; mobile money has the potential to allow the most vulnerable workers more independence and security; and the internet could allow women, in particular, to increase their incomes and independence. This literature review examines what rigorous empirical evidence actually exists to corroborate these claims. Most of the studies reviewed do indeed find positive effects of ICTs on jobs (or related variables) in Africa. On the basis of these findings, the paper reviews policy options for those interested in job creation in Sub-Saharan Africa. The paper concludes by highlighting that these positive findings may exist in parallel with negative structural dynamics that are more difficult to measure. Also, the review’s findings - while positive across the board - should be seen as distinct for ICTs in the period of the 2000s and 2010s, and cannot easily be transferred to expect similarly positive effects of the much newer, Fourth Industrial Revolution Technologies (such as machine learning, blockchain technologies, big data analytics, platform economies), which may produce entirely different dynamics.
Topic:
Development, Science and Technology, Labor Issues, Women, Internet, Economic Growth, Political Science, and Literature Review
Political Geography:
Africa

1797. Migration: Solid Nations and Liquid Transnationalism? The EU’s Struggle to Find a Shared Course on African Migration 1999-2019

Author:
Irene Schöfberger
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
The European Union (EU) has been struggling to find a shared course on African migration since the entry into force of the Schengen Agreement (1995). It has done so through two interrelated processes of negotiation. Firstly, parties have negotiated narrative frames about migration and, in particular, whether migration should be interpreted in terms of security or in terms of development. Secondly, they have negotiated internal and external migration policies, that is, how migration should be managed respectively inside the EU (based on cooperation between EU member states) and outside it (based on cooperation with third states). In times in which narrative frames increasingly shape policy negotiations, it becomes very important to analyse how policymakers negotiate narrative frames on migration and how these shape policy responses. However, such an analysis is still missing. This discussion paper investigates how European states and institutions have negotiated the relation between EU borders and African mobility between 1999 and the beginning of 2019. It focusses in particular on how the process of negotiation of migration policies has been interrelated with a process of negotiation of narrative frames on migration. It does so based on an analysis of EU policy documents from 1999 to 2019 and on interviews with representatives of European and African states and regional organisations. Two major trends have characterised related EU negotiation processes: migration-security narrative frames have strengthened national-oriented and solid borders-oriented approaches (and vice versa), and migration-development narrative frames have strengthened transnational-oriented and liquid borders-oriented approaches (and vice versa). Since 1999, the European Council has mostly represented security- and national-oriented approaches, and the European Commission has mostly represented development- and transnational-oriented approaches. The two competing approaches have always been interlinked and influenced each other. However, in the last years, security-oriented national and solid border approaches have gained prominence over development-oriented transnational and liquid border approaches. In particular, the Commission has progressively mainstreamed national objectives in its transnational actions and security concerns in its development measures. Prioritising security over transnational development has augmented inequalities, in particular at the expenses of actors with scarce political representation in Africa and the EU. Such inequalities include increasing migrant selectivity and wage dumping.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, International Cooperation, Migration, History, and Negotiation
Political Geography:
Africa and European Union

1798. Comparing Global Trends in Multidimensional and Income Poverty and Assessing Horizontal Inequalities

Author:
Francesco Burchi, Daniele Malerba, Nicole Rippin, and Claudio E. Montenegro
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
The 2030 Agenda has provided new impetus to two facets of the struggle for poverty alleviation, which is a central goal of the international development community. First, poverty is no longer viewed strictly in monetary terms, but rather as a multidimensional phenomenon. Second, the need to reduce poverty for different social groups and not just at the aggregate, national level is explicitly recognised. Against this background, this paper has three objectives: (1) to analyse the trends in multidimensional poverty in low- and middle-income countries, (2) to explore rural-urban differences in poverty over time, and (3) to assess the validity of the claim that there has been a feminisation of poverty. The analysis relies on a new indicator of multidimensional poverty, the Global Correlation Sensitive Poverty Index (G-CSPI), that incorporates three key components: education, employment and health. The G-CSPI has several methodological advantages over existing measures, including that it is an individual rather than a household-level measure of poverty, which is crucial for gender-disaggregated analysis. Regarding aggregate trends, this paper shows that both income poverty and multidimensional poverty fell between 2000 and 2012. However, the decline in (extreme) income poverty in percentage terms was twice as large as the decline in multidimensional poverty. There is significant heterogeneity in the results across regions. Multidimensional poverty declined the most in Asia, converging towards the relatively low levels of Latin America and Europe, while sub-Saharan Africa’s slow progress further distanced it from other regions. These findings point to the existence of poverty traps and indicate that more efforts are needed to eradicate poverty. Regarding the urban-rural comparison, our analysis shows that poverty is predominantly a rural phenomenon: the rural G-CSPI was more than four times the urban G-CSPI. This difference remained nearly constant over time. As for the third objective, we find no gender bias in 2000 at the global level. This contrasts with the claim made in 1995 in Beijing that 70 per cent of the poor were women. However, we find that multidimensional poverty declined more among men (-18.5 per cent from 2000) than women (-15 per cent), indicating a process of feminisation of poverty. This was triggered by the decline in employment poverty, which was much slower among women. As most existing studies conclude that there was no evidence of the feminisation of poverty, this finding is new to the literature.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Poverty, Inequality, Urban, and Rural
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Latin America, and Global Focus

1799. South Africa’s Changing Role in Global Development Structures – Being in Them but Not Always of Them

Author:
Elizabeth Sidiropoulos
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
South Africa’s engagement in global development structures has evolved since 1994, when the country re-entered the international community. The historical philosophical underpinnings of the African National Congress, the governing party, aimed to reaffirm the country’s place in the Global South and African firmament after the end of apartheid. This understanding is necessary in the context of South Africa’s priorities over the past 25 years, not least in the development debates. The last two decades have seen significant attempts to develop global norms that tackle the serious developmental challenges faced by developing countries. The paper explores these initiatives and divides them into three streams – those undertaken by the United Nations, those begun by the Development Assistance Committee of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD-DAC), and those that may be understood as part of club governance processes (such as the G20, the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), and the India-Brazil-South Africa Dialogue Forum (IBSA). South Africa’s engagement in these global development structures is analysed, along with its contribution to the evolution of African agency on the issues of global development. South Africa has strongly criticised existing power relations while undertaking strategic engagements with the North, centred on the vision of an African renaissance and the New Partnership for Africa’s Development initiative. The country has consistently argued that Northern aid cannot be put on the same platform as South-South Cooperation as they have different origins. Other African states and continental institutions have also ramped up their engagement on global development and development cooperation in recent years, which the paper also explores. While South Africa has always identified Africa as a core pillar of its foreign policy, its interests have not always cohered with those of the rest of the continent. Lastly, the paper explores possible avenues that South Africa might pursue in the current polarised multilateral environment. Its biggest challenge is the tension regarding its Global South identity, which has to balance its commitment to African issues and institutional processes, and its positioning via its membership of the BRICS as an emerging power that seeks to contest the current global power configurations.
Topic:
Development, United Nations, Multilateralism, and Economic Development
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

1800. The Influence of EU Migration Policy on Regional Free Movement in the IGAD and ECOWAS Regions

Author:
Clare Castillejo
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
Establishing free movement regimes is an ambition for most African regional economic communities, and such regimes are widely understood as important for regional integration, growth and development. However, in recent years the EU’s migration policies and priorities in Africa - which are narrowly focused on stemming irregular migration to Europe – appear to be in tension with African ambitions for free movement. This paper examines how the EU’s current political engagement and programming on migration in Africa is impacting on African ambitions to establish free movement regimes. It focuses first on the continental level, and then looks in-depth at two regional economic communities: The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) in the Horn of Africa, and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). The paper begins by examining how free movement has featured within both EU and African migration agendas in recent years, describing how this issue has been increasingly sidelined within the EU’s migration policy framework, while receiving growing attention by the African Union. The paper then discusses the impact of EU migration policies and programmes on progress towards regional free movement in the IGAD region. It finds that the EU is broadly supportive of efforts to establish an IGAD free movement regime, although in practice gives this little priority in comparison with other migration issues. The paper goes on to examine the EU’s engagement in the ECOWAS region, which is strongly focused on preventing irregular migration and returning irregular migrants. It asks whether there is an innate tension between this EU agenda and the ambitions of ECOWAS to fully realise its existing free movement regime, and argues that the EU’s current engagement in West Africa is actively undermining free movement. Finally, the paper discusses the differences between the EU’s approach to migration and free movement in these two regions. It offers recommendations regarding how the EU can strengthen its support for free movement in both these regions, as well as more broadly in Africa.
Topic:
Development, Migration, Regional Cooperation, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and European Union