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241. The Birth, Death and Survival of Exports in Zambia 1999 - 2011

Author:
Bernard Banda and Joseph Simumba
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
This paper deals with the dynamics of Zambia’s export performance, analyzing the birth, death and persistence of exporting in various products and destinations. We use a framework that has recently proliferated in international trade to decompose the growth of Zambia’s exports into an “intensive” and “extensive” margin. Our results show that the extensive margin is the dominant driver of export growth in Zambia. We attribute the poor performance of the intensive margin to the low survival among exporters that hardly lasts for more than a year. Our findings imply that interventions to support new-exporting should be encouraged. But it also raises key questions on the sustainability of export growth in the long-run. Therefore, we propose that interventions should target improving the duration of survival among exporters and deepen their intensity of exporting once they are able to survive longer. In conclusion, there is urgent need to carefully understand the factors that are responsible for the high mortality among exporters within the first year of birth.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Exports
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

242. And Africa Will Shine Forth: A Statesman's Memoir

Author:
Jean Ping
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
Everyone knows that Africa, cradle of humanity, land of the Pharaohs and human civilization, and vast reservoir of human and natural resources, is not doing well. She crosses the deepest crisis that has shaken her since the end of colonial times. The specter of chaos lurks everywhere. She is now seen as the continent of “collapsing states” and “zombie nations”; the continent of extreme poverty, misery, and injustice; the continent of horrors, of the Rwandan genocide and of the worst atrocities committed in Liberia, Sierra Leone, Kenya, Darfur and elsewhere. This brutal reality has been, for quite some time now, analyzed by most observers and experts with certain fatalism, as testified by these book titles with pessimistic or even alarmist tones: “Black Africa Started on the Wrong Foot” (René Dumont), “Can Black Africa Take Off?” (Albert Meister); “And What If Africa Refused Development” (Axelle Kabou); “Africa Down” (Jacques Giri). By now, it is just a chorus of permanent lamentations about the “lost continent,” the “damned continent,” or the “cursed continent” whose past is not passing. And the rest of the world, which sees us as negligible, even contemptible (“all corrupt and all dictators,” they say), consider that henceforth, they no longer need us.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Economics, Post Colonialism, Natural Resources, Fragile/Failed State, and Neoimperialism
Political Geography:
Kenya, Africa, Darfur, Liberia, and Sierra Leone

243. Political Budget Cycles and Intergovernmental Transfers in a Dominant Party Framework: Empirical Evidence from South Africa

Author:
Verena Kroth
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
This paper tests the theory of context-conditional political budget cycles in South Africa's dominant party framework and demonstrates that the central government has both an incentive and the ability to implement PBCs on the subnational level. Using a unique panel dataset comprising South Africa's nine provinces over the period 1995–2010 generates two main results: First, provinces where the national ruling party faces greater electoral competition receive higher per capita transfers in the year before an election. Second, this increase is driven by the conditional grant, which is the nonformula-based component of total the intergovernmental transfer. The ability to implement political budget cycles is successfully constrained when it comes to the formula-based equitable share component of the total transfer for which no evidence of electorally-induced funding is found. Overall, the results suggest that even in a dominant party framework, political competition can function as an incentive to implement political budget cycles.
Topic:
Democratization, Economics, Government, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

244. The Imperial Peace in Colonial Africa and Africa's Underdevelopment

Author:
Robert H. Bates
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
When praised at all, imperialism is most often commended for the peace it bestowed. By demobilizing armies, deposing marauding princes and subduing war-like states, European powers fashioned a half-century of political order. The question nonetheless arises: Should they be lauded for that? In this chapter, I view Africa's history through the lens of comparative history and argue that the imperial peace may have retarded Africa's development.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Imperialism, Post Colonialism, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Africa and Europe

245. Transformations on Whose Terms? Understanding the New EU-ACP Trade Relations from the Outside In

Author:
Ulrike Lorenz
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Kolleg-Forschergruppe (KFG)
Abstract:
In the past ten years, the long-standing trade relations between the European Union (EU) and the African, Caribbean, and Pacific (ACP) countries have experienced radical transformations. The negotiations of the Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) between the EU and seven regional groupings formed by the ACP countries have led to the EU being maneuvered into an unexpectedly weak position. For the first time, European negotiators had to substantially leave their pre-agreed negotiation path and positions due to the immense pressure from ACP countries, regional organizations, and non-state actors – and still have not been able to finalize negotiations that had initially been expected to only take five years until the end of 2007.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Asia, Australia/Pacific, and Caribbean

246. Land Tenure and Economic Activities in Uganda: a Literature Review

Author:
Michael Kidoido, Rasmus Hundsbæk Pedersen, Rachel Spichiger, and Sarah Alobo
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Land is an important asset for people's livelihoods and for economic development in Uganda, where the majority of people live in rural areas. This working paper reviews the literature on Uganda's tenure systems and their relationship with economic activities, focusing primarily on rural agricultural land. The review illustrates that these relationships are complex and context-dependent.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Gender Issues, Poverty, and Law
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

247. The EU's Security Policy Towards Africa: Causes, Rationales and Dynamics

Author:
Abdurrahim Sıradağ
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Insight Turkey
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
This article explores the causes and dynamics impacting the development of the EU's security policy on Africa. The changing global structure in Africa has influenced the EU's foreign and security policy in Africa. The new global actors, such as China, India, Brazil, and Turkey have recently consolidated their political and economic relations with both African states and organisations with an impact on the EU's approach to the continent. At the same time, the new challenges, like international terrorism and immigration, also left their mark on the EU's policy in Africa. This article argues that the EU members' economic interests have played a central role in developing the EU's security policy towards Africa. Meanwhile, the new global threats and challenges and the emergence of new actors in Africa have also had an impact on the formulation and implementation of the EU's security policy in Africa.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Europe, Turkey, India, and Brazil

248. Hoping to Win, Expected to Lose: Theory and Lessons on Microenterprise Development

Author:
Dean Karlan, Ryan Knight, and Christopher Udry
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
We show how financial and managerial constraints impede experimentation and thus limit learning about the profitability of investments. Imperfect information about one's own type, but willingness to experiment to learn one's type, leads to short-run negative expected returns to investments, with some outliers succeeding. We find in an experiment that entrepreneurs invest randomized grants of cash and adopt advice from randomized grants of consulting services, but both lead to lower profits on average. In the long run, they revert back to their prior scale of operations. In a meta-analysis, results from 19 other experiments find mixed support for this theory.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Markets, Foreign Aid, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Africa

249. Resources, risk and resilience: scarcity and climate change in Ethiopia

Author:
Alex Evans
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
Ethiopia's resource scarcity context presents a daunting challenge, but also a significant opportunity. The country's current scarcity context includes: Low agricultural yields and farm sizes: Even if farm productivity were to increase by a factor of three, the average farm would still not produce enough food for a family of five. With 83% of Ethiopia's people directly dependent on agriculture for their livelihoods, the country has a major food security challenge; 7.5 million people depend on food safety nets. Major exposure to drought: Ethiopia has erratic rainfall, and acutely limited water storage capacity: the country has only 43m3 of reservoir storage per person, compared to 750m3 in South Africa and 6,150m3 in North America. Levels of irrigation are also low: the World Bank estimates that only 5% of irrigable land in Ethiopia is actually irrigated. Limited access to energy: Ethiopia's total primary energy supply is less than 60% of the African average, and only just over a fifth of the global average. The country depends on waste and biomass for 90 of its energy needs – leading to consequences including deforestation, and soil degradation as a result of biomass not being returned to the soil. High dependence on imported oil and food: Ethiopia currently imports all of its liquid fuels and a significant proportion of its food. This creates major exposure to global commodity price volatility, with the attendant risk of balance of payments problems, inflation and outright supply interruptions.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Development, Economics, Poverty, Natural Resources, and Food
Political Geography:
Africa, South Africa, North America, and Ethiopia

250. The State of Public Health in South Sudan

Author:
Richard Downie
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Less than 18 months into its life as an independent nation, South Sudan is facing a desperate struggle for survival. Because the terms of its separation from Sudan were not decided before independence, negotiations have dragged on over issues including borders, security arrangements, and the qualifications for citizenship, diverting attention from the urgent task of development. Most damagingly, the two nations have failed to cooperate on oil production, the mainstay of their economies. Anger over the high price Sudan was demanding to use its pipeline prompted the government of the Republic of South Sudan (GRSS) to shut off oil production entirely in January 2012. Although a compromise was reached in August, implementation stalled until a broader agreement was signed by the two countries in late September. The implications for health development in South Sudan are stark. Even before the oil shutdown, international donors had paid for and delivered most health services. However, talks had been ongoing to transfer to a more sustainable system in which the GRSS assumed more responsibility for the health needs of its citizens. Donors spoke of the importance of moving away from a top-down system centered on emergency relief and primary health care delivery, mainly administered by international nongovernmental organizations (NGOs). Instead, the objective was to move to a new phase focused on developing health systems that would increasingly be managed by South Sudanese themselves. These plans were put on hold by the oil shutdown and the calamitous economic crisis it triggered. Donors feel that South Sudan has regressed in the period since independence, and they apportion a lot of the blame for the dire situation on the government of South Sudan.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, Economics, Health, Oil, Infectious Diseases, Financial Crisis, and Health Care Policy
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan

251. US electorate in figures

Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
The US presidential election in November promises to be closely fought - and exceptionally raucous. Unprecedented amounts of money will be spent during the campaign, much of it on 'attack ads'. Here are five statistics to help sort out the issues from the noise.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, America, and Washington

252. When do ruling elites support productive sectors? Explaining policy initiatives in the fisheries and dairy sectors in Uganda

Author:
Fred Muhumuza, Anne Mette Kjær, Mesharch Katusiimeh, and Tom Mwebaze
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
This paper explains the differences in ruling elite support for the fisheries and dairy sectors in Uganda. Although production in Uganda has not generally been promoted in any sustained way, ruling elites have to varying degrees supported the dairy and fisheries sectors. The paper shows that the ruling elite initially supported the fishing industry because of industry pressure. They have failed to enforce fisheries management because there are big political costs associated with such enforcement. The dairy sector in the southwestern milk region was initially supported because the ruling elite wanted to build a coalition of support in this region. Coming from the region himself, the president had a keen interest in dairy cattle. The sector was subsequently regulated because the biggest processor put pressure on the ruling elite to do so. Even when the ruling coalition is fragmented, promoting production is possible if there is strong industry pressure and when the initiatives to promote the sector are also seen to help build or maintain the ruling coalition.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Industrial Policy, Poverty, and Social Stratification
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

253. The political economy of the fisheries sector in Uganda: ruling elites, implementation costs and industry interests

Author:
Fred Muhumuza, Anne Mette Kjær, Mesharch Katusiimeh, and Tom Mwebaze
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
This paper sets out to explain policies, implementation arrangements and results (PIRs) in Uganda's fisheries sector. Industry actors wanted to be able to keep up with European standards in order to survive in the chilled and frozen fillet export industry. They put pressure on ruling elites to support the establishment of effective hygiene and testing procedures. This helped the fishing industry succeed to an extent that helped create interests in the status quo. Fishermen, their dependents, and the fish processors all wanted to maintain a high level of fish catches. It was politically costly for ruling elites to enforce fisheries management because strict enforcement was unpopular with fishermen, as well as with many fishermen and security agents who benefitted from illegal fishing. Therefore, the success was not maintained: a pocket of efficiency was established with regard to hygiene and testing, but not with regard to enforcing fisheries management. Overfishing and the near collapse of the fishing sector were the results.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Government, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Poverty, and Social Stratification
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, and Europe

254. Coalition-driven initiatives in the Ugandan dairy sector: Elites, conflict, and bargaining

Author:
Fred Muhumuza, Anne Mette Kjær, and Tom Mwebaze
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The dairy sector is one of the only agricultural sectors in Uganda that has enjoyed sustained high growth since the late 1980s. Milk and the cold dairy chain developed especially in the south-western part of the country. This paper explains why this is so by the sector's relation to the ruling coalition. We argue that the dairy sector was relatively successful because the south-western based ruling elite wanted to build a support base in its home area. In addition, the elite had a special interest in dairy since key elite members owned dairy cattle themselves. As milk production grew, the ruling elite wanted to regulate the sector as this would help the big processor, the state owned and later privatized Dairy Corporation. Regulation was relatively successful and a pocket of bureaucratic efficiency was established in an agency called the Dairy Development Authority. The reason why regulation was enforced to a considerable extent was the organization of dairy farmers and traders and the bargaining and compromise with the Dairy Development Authority this organization of industry actors enabled.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Economics, Government, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

255. Developing a Palm Oil Sector: The Experiences of Malaysia and Ghana Compared

Author:
Lindsay Whitfield and Niels Fold
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
This paper explores what can be learned about the development of a productive sector and the factors that affect the process of upgrading and innovation, through a comparative assessment of the experiences of Malaysia and Ghana in the palm oil sector. The purpose is not to carry out a direct comparison of the trajectories of the sectors in the two countries, which would serve only to emphasize the failures in the 'construction' of the palm industry in Ghana. Rather, the role of context must be acknowledged, such that learning starts with understanding key points in the industries' trajectories that either break or accelerate path dependency. Thus, the paper focuses on the differing contextual factors and initial conditions, and how they shaped early divergent paths and industry structures, as well as the presence or absence of factors supporting expansion and diversification within each country's trajectory.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Economics, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
Africa and Malaysia

256. The structure and dynamics of cut flower export markets from Kenya and Ethiopia

Author:
Brian D. Perry
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
This report is part of a broad study of trade preferences and market conditions between various developing countries and Norway, conducted under the auspices of the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs and funded by the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Norway's Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) was established in 1971. From 2002 Norway has provided duty and quota free market access (DQF-MA) for all goods from all the 50 least developed countries (LDCs3). In 2005 the results of a review of Norway's GSP were published (Melchior, 20054), which showed that agricultural products from developing countries other than LDCs were still subject to substantial tariffs, and this contrasted dramatically with advantages given to European trading partners. As a result, from 1 January 2008 changes were made to Norway's GSP5. An important adjustment was that 14 low income countries that were not part of the LDC group were included in the provision for duty and quota-free market access (DQFMA). Consequently, 64 low income countries now benefit from DQFMA to Norway for all their goods.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
Kenya, Africa, Norway, and Ethiopia

257. Reconsidering the Right to Own Property

Author:
Rhoda E. Howard-Hassmann
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Human Rights Human Welfare (University of Denver)
Abstract:
This article considers whether a there should be a separate international Covenant to elaborate on the human right to own property, which has languished since its inclusion in the 1948 Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR).
Topic:
Economics, Human Rights, Human Welfare, Privatization, and Food
Political Geography:
Africa

258. Cooperating with China in Africa

Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
OECD donors, international organisations and non-governmental organisations are increasingly cooperating with China in Africa. This policy brief offers recommendations for policy-makers on how to lay the groundwork for such cooperation. It also stresses that the involvement of African partners is critical in fully realizing the benefits such cooperation can provide for sustainable development.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, Diplomacy, Economics, Foreign Aid, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Africa and China

259. China's New Courtship in South Sudan

Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In the wake of Sudan's partition, Beijing has accelerated a re-orientation of its engagement in the resulting two states, most significantly through a new courtship in Juba. China's historical support for Khartoum left a sour legacy in the South, but the potential for mutual economic benefit means a new chapter in bilateral relations is now being written. Balancing new friends in Juba with old friends in Khartoum, however, has proven a delicate dance. China has been drawn into a high-stakes oil crisis between the two, the consequences of which may temper an otherwise rapidly expanding relationship with Juba. A sustainable solution to the crisis cannot be achieved in isolation; North-South stability, mutual economic viability and the security of Chinese interests will also depend on answers to other unresolved political and security issues, including in Sudan's marginalised peripheries. The future of Beijing's dual engagement, and the kind of relationship that emerges in the South, will depend in part on how the oil standoff – and this broader reform agenda – are confronted.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, Oil, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Africa, China, and South Sudan

260. Maritime Transport and Destabilizing Commodity Flows

Author:
Hugh Griffiths and Michael Jenks
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
Maritime transport dominates international trade in licit and illicit goods. It accounts for the majority of seizures and suspect shipments of military equipment and dual-use goods (goods that have both civilian and potential military applications, including in the development of weapons of mass destruction and missiles) originating from or destined for embargoed states such as Iran and North Korea. It is the primary means of delivering shipments of conventional arms to actors involved in conflicts in c. Sea transport plays a major role in global flows of narcotics and associated chemical precursors. It is also the main mode of transport for other illicit and potentially destabilizing commodities, such as smuggled tobacco, oil and counterfeit goods.
Topic:
Security, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Communications, Maritime Commerce, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
Africa and North Korea