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21. Comparative Continuismo: Presidential Term Limit Contravention Across Developing Democracies

Author:
Kristin McKie
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Since presidential term limits were (re)adopted into many constitutions during the third wave of democratization, 207 presidents across Latin America, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia have reached the end of their terms in office. Of these, 30% have attempted to contravene term limits whereas 70% have stepped down in compliance with tenure rules. Furthermore, of the presidents who have attempted to alter tenure restrictions, some have succeeded in fully abolishing term limits, others have only managed a one-term extension, while a minority have failed in their bids to secure any additional terms in office. What explains these divergent trajectories? On the basis of a series of statistical analyses, I argue that trends in electoral competition over time are the best predictor of the range of term limit contravention outcomes across the board, with the least competitive elections permitting full term limit abolition and the most competitive elections saving off attempts at altering executive tenure rules. Furthermore, results show that failed contravention attempts are true borderline cases, rather than instances gross miscalculations of success by the president and her party, in that they feature less competitive elections than non-attempt cases but more competitive elections than successful contravention cases. These findings suggest a linkage between political uncertainty and constitutional stability more generally.
Topic:
Democratization, Democracy, Institutions, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, Asia, and Latin America

22. Insecurity implications of unconstitutional changes of government in Africa: from military to constitutional coups

Author:
Pacifique Manirakiza
Publication Date:
10-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
Institution:
Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
Abstract:
This article investigates the AU’s approach to mitigating unconstitutional changes of government. While military coup d’état’s were once the most common form of regime change on the continent, the post-Cold War democratization process and the adoption of anti-coup diplomatic interventionist policies by the AU have reduced this phenomenon. However, it remains uncertain as to the effectiveness of the AU in curtailing the new trend of undermining African democracy by manipulating national legal structures so as to extend the life of a regime.
Topic:
Democratization, Regime Change, Coup, and African Union
Political Geography:
Africa

23. Democratization Processes and Political Competition in 1990’s Africa: The Cases of Mozambique and Zambia

Author:
Fidel Terenciano, Maria Do Socorro Souza Braga, and Carlos Augusto da Silva Souza
Publication Date:
12-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:
Democracy and democratization must be understood within its scope, considering the singularities and the contextual aspects of each society. And the democracies of the third wave also contemplate singularities that cannot be measured by the rubble of other contexts. The pretension of the present research is to study democracy and democratization in Mozambique and Zambia considering two elements: the electoral system, its singularities and then the formation and the shape of the party system with its correspondent nuances. Because it is important to analyze the effect of one in relation with the other, we focus our analysis in two aspects: first, the political and electoral competition in both countries, emphasizing to the party fluctuations in the Parliament, and secondly we analyze the electoral competition in the perspective of power alternance, which constitutes one of the dimensions to measure the level of stability of democracies.
Topic:
Democratization, Politics, History, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Africa, Mozambique, and Zambia

24. Enter and exit: everyday state practices at Somaliland’s Hargeisa Egal International Airport

Author:
Tobias Gandrup
Publication Date:
08-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The airport of Hargeisa, the capital of the officially unrecognized Republic of Somaliland, has been refurbished and upgraded over the past years in order to live up to international standards for security, immigration control and handling. In a new DIIS working paper, Tobias Gandrup (University of Antwerp) describes the contested role of the airport since colonial times and the collapse of the Somali state in 1991. By analysing the everyday practices of the airport as a way of 'performing the state', controlling entry and exit, Gandrup shows how the international standards act as external drivers for the formation of a new state in Somaliland. In this way, the licensed airport also provides a degree of international recognition to Somaliland.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Fragile States, Economy, Conflict, Peacebuilding, and Airports
Political Geography:
Africa and Somaliland

25. Transitional justice and democratisation nexus: Challenges of confronting legacies of past injustices and promoting reconciliation within weak institutions in Kenya

Author:
Ibrahim Magara
Publication Date:
08-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
Following the post-election violence (PEV) of 2007-8, which almost jettisoned the country into civil war, Kenya put in place a number of transitional justice mechanisms, such as truth telling, as a peacebuilding strategy. One of the major recommendations of Kenya’s Truth, Justice, and Reconciliation Commission (TJRC) is the creation of institutions and mechanisms for peacebuilding, reconciliation, and early warning with a view towards harmonising their activities and adopting a coordinated approach. This article explicates the centrality of democratic institutional reforms in the process of reconciliation, peacebuilding, and long-term stability. In tackling the notion of national reconciliation as a central pillar in post-conflict recovery and peacebuilding, this paper proposes that reconciliation happens within strong and properly functioning institutions of governance that are supportive of transitional justice mechanisms. Based on the transitional justice process in Kenya and building upon a view of reconciliation as a process, rather than an end, this paper argues that strengthening institutions that function within governance structures will go a long way towards placing Kenya on the path to reconciliation, national cohesion, and long term stability.
Topic:
Democratization, Transitional Justice, Institutions, Reconciliation, and Injustice
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

26. The Military And The Challenge Of Democratic Consolidation In Nigeria: Positive Skepticism And Negative Optimism

Author:
Emmanuel O. Ojo
Publication Date:
03-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
Institution:
Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
Abstract:
This paper is an attempt to consider the role of the military in Nigeria's democratic transitions. The paper has one major thrust – an in-depth analysis of military role in democratic transitions in Nigeria - the fundamental question, however, is: can the military ever be expected or assumed to play any major role in building democracy? The reality on the ground in Africa is that the military as an institution has never been completely immune from politics and the role of nation-building. However, whether they have been doing that perfectly or not is another question entirely which this paper shall address.
Topic:
Democratization
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

27. Electoral Rentierism? The Cross-National and Subnational Effect of Oil on Electoral Competitiveness in Multiparty Autocracies

Author:
Matthias Basedau and Michael Wahman
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Building on theoretical insights from research on the rentier state and the “resource curse,” several studies have supported the argument that oil hinders democracy. However, previous research on the rentier state has neglected the global surge of multiparty autocracies or “electoral authoritarian” regimes since the end of the Cold War. No systematic study has been carried out on the question of whether or not and how oil affects electoral contests in nondemocratic regimes. In this paper we contribute to filling this gap by combing the literature on multiparty autocracy and the political economy of the rentier state. As oil production creates substantial, nontransparent revenue streams to national and subnational governments, we hypothesize that oil production has a negative effect on electoral competitiveness, both cross‐ and subnationally, in multiparty autocracies. Consequently, the democratic “resource curse” emphasized in earlier work on the rentier state is likely to persist even after the introduction of multipartyism in cases where oil production predates democratic institutions. The paper tests the hypothesis cross‐nationally, using data on all multiparty elections held in the world in the period 1975–2010, and subnationally, using a new data set on subnational election results and oil production in Nigeria. Our results confirm that oil impedes electoral competitiveness, both cross‐ and subnationally, in multiparty autocracies.
Topic:
Cold War, Democratization, and Oil
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

28. Centrafrique : les racines de la violence

Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Crisis in the Central African Republic (CAR) is longterm and characterised by sporadic surges of violence against a backdrop of state disintegration, a survival economy and deep inter-ethnic cleavages. Armed groups (including the anti-balaka and the ex-Seleka) are fragmenting and becoming increasingly criminalised; intercommunal tensions have hampered efforts to promote CAR’s national unity and mend its social fabric. Unfortunately, the roadmap to end the crisis, which includes elections before the end of 2015, presents a short-term answer. To avoid pursuing a strategy that would merely postpone addressing critical challenges until after the polls, CAR’s transitional authorities and international partners should address them now by implementing a comprehensive disarmament policy, and reaffirming that Muslims belong within the nation. If this does not happen, the elections risk becoming a zero-sum game.
Topic:
Political Violence, Arms Control and Proliferation, Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, Political Economy, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Africa

29. Silencing the Guns: Strengthening Governance to Prevent, Manage, and Resolve Conflicts in Africa

Author:
Gilbert Khadiagala
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
Since independence, African states and organizations have made significant investments in conflict management and resolution tools. So why do some African states and regions remain saddled by conflict and instability? How can African states leverage democratic governance to end wars? The new report Silencing the Guns suggests that the key to ending conflict in Africa lies in fostering effective governance and creating political and economic institutions that can effectively prevent, manage, and resolve conflicts. Author Gilbert Khadiagala unpacks how and why democratic governance is linked to conflict prevention and management, and provides an overview of landmark trends that have influenced governance in Africa since the 1950s. He shows that not all forms of democratic governance reduce conflicts and examines the ways in which “developmental dictatorships,” corruption, and the privatization of security are posing obstacles for governance and peace today.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Democratization, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa

30. Somaliland: The Strains of Success

Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Somaliland’s hybrid system of tri-party democracy and traditional clan-based governance has enabled the consolidation of state-like authority, social and economic recovery and, above all, relative peace and security but now needs reform. Success has brought greater resources, including a special funding status with donors – especially the UK, Denmark and the European Union (EU) – as well as investment from and diplomatic ties with Turkey and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), though not international recognition. It is increasingly part of the regional system; ties are especially strong with Ethiopia and Djibouti. Given the continued fragility of the Somalia Federal Government (SFG), which still rejects its former northern region’s independence claims, and civil war across the Gulf of Aden in Yemen, Somaliland’s continued stability is vital. This in turn requires political reforms aimed at greater inclusion, respect for mediating institutions (especially the professional judiciary and parliament) and a regional and wider internationally backed framework for external cooperation and engagement.
Topic:
Democratization, Governance, and Elections
Political Geography:
Africa and Somaliland