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44702. Crony Capitalism and Social Engineering: The Case against Tax-Increment Financing
- Author:
- Randal O'Toole
- Publication Date:
- 05-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Tax-increment financing (TIF) is an increasingly popular way for cities to promote economic development. TIF works by allowing cities to use the property, sales, and other taxes collected from new developments—taxes that would otherwise go to schools, libraries, fire departments, and other urban services—to subsidize those same developments.
- Topic:
- Economics, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Governance
44703. Leashing the Surveillance State: How to Reform Patriot Act Surveillance Authorities
- Author:
- Julian Sanchez
- Publication Date:
- 05-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Congress recently approved a temporary extension of three controversial surveillance provisions of the USA Patriot Act and successor legislation, which had previously been set to expire at the end of February. In the coming weeks, lawmakers have an opportunity to review the sweeping expansion of domestic counter-terror powers since 9/11 and, with the benefit of a decade's perspective, strengthen crucial civil-liberties safeguards without unduly burdening legitimate intelligence gathering. Two of the provisions slated for sunsetroving wiretap authority and the so-called “Section 215” orders for the production of records—should be narrowed to mitigate the risk of overcollection of sensitive information about innocent Americans. A third—authority to employ the broad investigative powers of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act against “lone wolf” suspects who lack ties to any foreign terror group—does not appear to be necessary at all.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Intelligence, National Security, Counterinsurgency, Governance, and Law
- Political Geography:
- United States
44704. Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Future of Federal Housing Finance Policy: A Study of Regulatory Privilege
- Author:
- David Reiss
- Publication Date:
- 04-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- The federal government recently placed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-chartered, privately owned mortgage finance companies, in conservatorship. These two massive companies are profit driven, but as government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) they also have a government-mandated mission to provide liquidity and stability to the U.S. mortgage market and to achieve certain affordable housing goals. How the two companies should exit their conservatorship has implications that reach throughout the global financial markets and are of key importance to the future of American housing finance policy.
- Topic:
- Economics, Markets, Privatization, Financial Crisis, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- United States
44705. Bankrupt: Entitlements and the Federal Budget
- Author:
- Michael Tanner
- Publication Date:
- 03-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- The U.S. government is about to exceed its statutory debt limit of $14.3 trillion. But that actually underestimates the size of the fiscal time bomb that this country is facing. If one considers the unfunded liabilities of programs such as Medicare and Social Security, the true national debt could run as high as $119.5 trillion.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, Human Welfare, Financial Crisis, Governance, and Health Care Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States
44706. Putting Politics above Markets: Historical Background to the Greek Debt Crisis
- Author:
- Takis Michas
- Publication Date:
- 08-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Political clientelism and rent seeking have been the central organizing principles of Greek society since the foundation of the Greek state in the 19th century. The influence of the Eastern Orthodox Church on Greek nationalism and the legacy of the patrimonialist Ottoman empire produced a weak civil society. The result has been a disproportionately large Greek state and public bureaucracy since the 1800s that set the stage for rent-seeking struggles that have followed.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Debt, Financial Crisis, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Europe
44707. EIU Oil Market Outlook
- Author:
- Caroline Bain
- Publication Date:
- 09-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- Global oil consumption grew by 3.4% in 2010, rebounding from a contraction of 1% in 2009. Consumption growth will slow in 2011-14 but remain relatively strong.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Oil
44708. U.S. Trade and Investment Policy
- Author:
- Matthew J. Slaughter, Edward Alden, Andrew H. Card, and Thomas A. Daschle
- Publication Date:
- 09-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- The growth of global trade and investment has brought significant benefits to the United States and to the rest of the world. Freer trade and investment, facilitated by rules the United States led in negotiating and implementing, have alleviated poverty, raised average standards of living, and discouraged conflict.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Labor Issues, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States
44709. Making UN Peacekeeping More Robust: Protecting the Mission, Persuading the Actors
- Author:
- Patrice Sartre
- Publication Date:
- 08-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- The debate about robust peacekeeping pits the enthusiasm of "diplomats," who believe in peacekeeping but worry that it might not succeed in violent situations, against the scepticism of the "military," who see its failures as proof that the proper role of military forces is war fighting.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Peace Studies, War, and Peacekeeping
- Political Geography:
- Europe
44710. Preventive Diplomacy and Mediation
- Publication Date:
- 07-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- In anticipation of the Secretary-General's report on preventive diplomacy and the coming Security Council debate in the fall, heightened attention has been paid to the topic of preventive diplomacy in 2011. This issue brief serves to provide a background to the current discussions as well as to provide a summary of recent developments.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Diplomacy, International Affairs, and Peacekeeping
44711. Maintaining International Peace and Security: A Summit Meeting of the UN Security Council
- Publication Date:
- 06-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- On September 23, 2010, the United Nations Security Council held a summit meeting on the maintenance of international peace and security, which is the primary responsibility of the Council. The summit was initiated by Turkey, a nonpermanent member of the Council in 2009-2010 and holder of the rotating presidency for September 2010. It was attended by nine heads of state and government and six ministers, and chaired by Abdullah Gul, President of the Republic of Turkey. The resulting presidential statement (S/PRST/2010/18, reproduced in the Annex to this report) reaffirmed that international peace and security require a more comprehensive and coherent approach. The Council also pledged to continue to strengthen the crisis-management toolbox at its disposal, including preventive diplomacy, peacemaking, peacekeeping, and peacebuilding, and to adapt it to changing circumstances. In addition, the statement reiterated the Council's support for the protection of civilians and its commitment to strengthening strategic partnerships with regional and subregional organizations and other relevant players. Further, it reaffirmed the importance of women in all aspects of prevention and resolution of conflicts and underlined the importance of addressing the root causes of conflict.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Security, Diplomacy, and Peacekeeping
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and United Nations
44712. The Security Sector in Côte d'Ivoire: A Source of Conflict and a Key to Peace
- Author:
- Arthur Boutellis
- Publication Date:
- 05-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- The security sector in Côte d'Ivoire is both at the root of the recent crisis and the key to finding a way forward. While successive attempts to resolve divisions have recognized some of the larger challenges of security-sector reform (SSR), the failure to reunify the Ivoirian security forces prior to holding the presidential elections in 2010 was a key factor behind the recent crisis and contributed to its escalation into a military confrontation-a confrontation that included violence against civilians committed by both sides. The decade-long crisis and its latest episode have made the politicians in Côte d'Ivoire increasingly dependent on uniformed men. This will have to be addressed through comprehensive security-sector reform to prevent a return to armed conflict.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Security, Demographics, and Armed Struggle
- Political Geography:
- Africa
44713. Renewing MONUSCO'S Mandate: What Role Beyond the Elections?
- Author:
- Arthur Boutellis and Guillaume Lacaille
- Publication Date:
- 05-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- As they prepare to discuss the renewal of MONUSCO's mandate six months ahead of general elections in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), the members of the UN Security Council are facing a dilemma. Should they limit the role of MONUSCO to the continued protection of civilians in eastern Congo, as agreed with President Joseph Kabila, or should they expand its mandate in an attempt to enforce democratic principles before the elections at the risk of confronting the incumbent regime? This issue brief argues that MONUSCO should be limited to a technical role in the election—as requested by the Congolese authorities—but only on the condition that the international community reengages President Kabila in a frank political dialogue on long term democratic governance reforms.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Democratization, and Peacekeeping
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Democratic Republic of the Congo
44714. A Raid from the Sea: The Gaza Flotilla Attack and Blockade under Legal Scrutiny
- Author:
- Ufuk Ulutas
- Publication Date:
- 09-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
- Abstract:
- The publication of the Palmer report written by the panel of inquiry established by the UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon once again brought the 31 May 2010 Gaza Flotilla incident and the blockade of Gaza back to world's attention. On May 31, 2010, Israeli commandos stormed a passenger ship, the Mavi Marmara, the largest boat of a flotilla of six boats which were carrying 10000 tons of humanitarian aid to besieged Gaza, in international high waters. The operation left 9 activists dead and over 30 activists wounded. The Israeli military assault against the Mavi Marmara immediately ignited worldwide protests and condemnation. Turkey, whose citizens were attacked by Israeli soldiers in international high waters, 72 miles away from the Gazan coast, took the lead in protests and condemnation. Israel, however, claimed that the demonstrators on the Mavi Marmara were aiming to break the blockade of Gaza and the Israeli commandos were forced onboard to react in an act of self-defense.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and Humanitarian Aid
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia
44715. The September UN Vote on Palestine: Will the EU Be Up to the Challenge?
- Author:
- Riccardo Alcaro and Andrea Dessì
- Publication Date:
- 09-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Frustrated by years of inconclusive peace talks, the Palestinians are turning to the United Nations to gain recognition as an independent state. Their bid is opposed by Israel and the United States, with the latter threatening to block any bid for full UN membership in the UN Security Council. To bypass the US veto, the Palestinians plan to request recognition to the UN General Assembly, where they are sure to get the two-third majority of votes needed for the approval of the resolution. While legally non-binding, a favourable vote in the UNGA would be a political boost for the Palestinians' cause - or so they hope. Full EU backing would give critical political weight to the Palestinians' claim. EU states are deeply divided on the issue of Palestinian membership of the UN but instead of opposing the initiative altogether, the EU has been engaging the Palestinian leadership in the hope of modifying its stance. Should the EU fail to persuade the PA to give up on its request for full UN membership, it should abstain in bloc while tabling a concurring resolution that would spell out clearly the parameters for renewed peace talks.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, United Nations, and Territorial Disputes
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
44716. Ambiguous Definitions in the Cyber Domain: Costs, Risks and the Way Forward
- Author:
- Federica Di Camillo and Valérie Miranda
- Publication Date:
- 09-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The modern-day importance of the cyber/Information and Communication Technology (ICT) sector rests upon various considerations: it is at the basis of most of the critical infrastructures of modern societies, and can be both the direct object of attacks or incidents on Critical Information Infrastructures (CIIs) and the means of striking indirectly at the critical infrastructures whose own operations are based on it (i.e., transport networks, energy and water distribution networks, nuclear plants and banking and financial systems). This paper aims at showing that the existence of problems of definitions, and above all of their harmonisation, brings inefficiencies to various aspects of the management of the cyber sector, in particular normative production, countermeasures and law enforcement. As a way forward, it suggests some proposals for improvement at the European, transatlantic and international levels.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Communications, Infrastructure, and Law Enforcement
- Political Geography:
- Europe
44717. The 2012 Presidential Elections in Russia: What Future for the Medvedev-Putin Tandem?
- Author:
- Nona Mikhelidze
- Publication Date:
- 09-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The 2012 Russian presidential election and the future of the Medvedev-Putin tandem have started to dominate political debate inside and outside the country. Several developments in Russia's domestic politics have made predictions on the future president particularly arduous. These include Russia's so-called modernization initiative; Mikhail Prokhorov's debut on the Russian political scene, and the new presidential decree on the "Security Council Questions". Yet, analysing these developments suggests that whether Putin will return to the presidency or whether he will remain the de facto leader is unlikely to have major repercussions on Russian domestic policy. For Russia, the priority today is the need to maintain internal stability and formal democracy, necessary to attract foreign technologies and thus advance the modernization initiative as well as to guarantee elite continuity through an internal balance between the siloviki faction and the liberals. Both a renewed Medvedev-Putin tandem and a return of Putin to the presidency fulfil these goals. While much debated, the personality of the future Russian president is unlikely to represent a major game changer in Russia today.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, Politics, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- Russia
44718. North and South Korea: A Frozen Conflict on the Verge of Unfreezing?
- Author:
- Stefano Felician
- Publication Date:
- 08-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The Korean Peninsula, despite its size, is one of the most critical areas of the world. A land that bears a bitter legacy of the Cold War, and that is still heavily militarized, Korea shows a striking contrast from North to South. These two opposite political systems cohabit under a fragile peace that could be broken at any moment. This has led to a massive military development and the deployment of a wide array of troops on both sides. The future of North Korea is crucial for the entire region and could affect the EU's economy as well. Many issues remain to be solved in order to achieve a durable peace in the region or, at the very least, to avoid the resumption of war. The European Union could play a role in this unfolding crisis in a manner that could also help its ailing economy.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Cold War, Peace Studies, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Europe, South Korea, and North Korea
44719. Rehashed Commission Delegations or Real Embassies? EU Delegations Post-Lisbon
- Author:
- Michele Comelli and Raffaello Matarazzo
- Publication Date:
- 07-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The entry into force of the Lisbon Treaty and the creation of the European External Action Service (EEAS) have transformed the delegations of the EU abroad which are the face of the EU in third countries and in international organisations. Previously they dealt with trade and aid only, now they also deal with foreign and security policy, coordinating and representing the positions of the EU in third countries. This is an important innovation, but one which poses new challenges. In addition, EU delegations to international organizations are confronted with specific problems: the member states' reluctance to recognize the new competences conferred by the Treaty to the EU and the discrepancies between the new provisions of the EU's external representation and the internal procedures of international organizations themselves. In order to use all the space for manoeuvre provided for by the Treaty EU delegations must pursue a double objective: further adapting the EU's external representation to the procedures of the main international organizations; and promoting deeper coordination between the EU and the member states, particularly when shared competences are at stake.
- Topic:
- International Organization, Regional Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Lisbon
44720. The Challenges for European Policy on Access to Space
- Author:
- Anna Veclani, Nicolò Sartori, and Rosa Rosanelli
- Publication Date:
- 07-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The EU is one of the major space actors in the world and, like other principal space faring nations, relies on an independent access to space system for implementing its space policy. Indeed, for more than thirty years, the European launcher Ariane has guaranteed the success of numerous institutional and commercial missions, both for civil and military purposes. Given the importance of the EU's space policy for the effectiveness of the Union's internal and external action, an autonomous, reliable and cost-effective access to space is a fundamental and strategic necessity. This paper presents the main challenges faced by European institutions and industry in maintaining an independent access to space. As satellite technology quickly evolves and new space competitors rise, the EU needs to step up its launch capabilities and to effectively confront international competition. To these ends, the main European space actors must renew their approach to the policy on access to space, in particular by addressing the problems affecting the launch company Arianespace, for which the paper provides policy options.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, Science and Technology, and Communications
- Political Geography:
- Europe
44721. A Return of Armies to the Forefront of Arab Politics?
- Author:
- Philippe Droz-Vincent
- Publication Date:
- 07-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Arab armies are closed and secretive actors. Yet they have been propelled to the fore in 2011, acting as midwifes and active participants in the revolts in Tunisia and Egypt. Their posture vis-à-vis incumbent regimes is crucial in other Arab countries too - Libya, Yemen, Bahrain, Syria - as the wave of popular uprisings against authoritarian regimes has spread. In view of this, there is an essential need to understand what kind of actors Arab armies are. The nature of armies in authoritarian settings shapes the pattern of resilience or of breakdown for regimes facing popular uprisings, and the prospect for various transition countries in the Arab world.
- Topic:
- Social Stratification
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Arabia, North Africa, Syria, Egypt, Bahrain, and Tunisia
44722. Decoupling Trade from Politics: The EU and Region-Building in the Andes
- Author:
- Miguel Haubrich Seco
- Publication Date:
- 07-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- In its external relations, the EU advances regional cooperation as a successful means of achieving peace and prosperity. In doing so, the EU promotes its own model as the most successful case of regional integration. A wide-reaching set of instruments, spanning from trade to political dialogue and aid, is used to promote regional cooperation and integration. Noneheless, regional organisations supported by the EU are far from accomplishing their set objectives. Using as a test case the Andean Community, the oldest Latin American regional organisation and a prominent case of EU support for regional integration, this paper examines the reasons behind the EU's lack of impact in promoting regional integration. Stemming from this analysis, the paper proposes a recalibration of EU policy by decoupling trade relations from political engagement and by increasing support for physical and visible integration as opposed to formal institutions detached from the perceived needs of the public.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Latin America
44723. The EU and the Libyan Crisis: In Quest of Coherence?
- Author:
- Nicole Koenig
- Publication Date:
- 07-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The EU's reaction is slow, the EU is divided, the EU is unable to deliver: time and time again, newspapers depict the image of an incoherent and uncoordinated EU foreign policy. This time, the topic under discussion is the EU's response to the Libyan crisis. Many have compared the EU's internal divisions over Libya with those over the Iraq war, an often-used example to illustrate the limits of the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP). This paper aims to assess the coherence of the EU's short- to medium-term response to the Libyan crisis. It distinguishes between the horizontal, interinstitutional, vertical and multilateral dimensions of EU coherence. The analysis shows that unilateral actions or inactions of the member states mainly account for the EU's incoherent response. The post-Lisbon institutional structure has done little to compensate for these internal divisions. While the EU cannot change the course of national foreign policies, it should increase its 'leadership for coherence', communitarize its crisis response in the medium term and aim at preventing incoherence in the longer term.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Political Violence
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Europe, Libya, Arabia, and North Africa
44724. Israel and Iran's Nuclear Weapon Programme: Roll Back or Containment?
- Author:
- Massimiliano Fiore
- Publication Date:
- 07-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The latest IAEA Report suggests that Iran is seeking a nuclear weapon capability. Preventing the Islamic Republic from becoming nuclear is the most important issue on Israel's agenda, and Jerusalem will do everything it can to prevent Tehran from acquiring a nuclear capability. Considering the limited impact of international sanctions and covert operations, it is therefore possible that at some point in the next 12-15 months Israel's policy-makers and military officials will decide whether or not to act militarily to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities. Though the probability of successfully destroying all of Iran's nuclear targets is not very high, Israeli policy-makers and military officials would nevertheless still be extremely satisfied with delaying Iran's nuclear programme. But would it be worth all the trouble it would inevitably unleash? While Israeli fears are understandable, given the heavy costs and poor chances for success of the military option, containment still represents the most sensible policy for Israel.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Sanctions, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Israel
44725. Does the European External Action Service Represent a Model for the Challenges of Global Diplomacy?
- Author:
- Hanna Ojanen and Rosa Balfour
- Publication Date:
- 06-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The EEAS was established to give EU foreign policy new impetus, greater coherence and efficacy. It remains to be seen whether the current organizational concept will give rise to more strategic approaches to foreign policy issues and more holistic foreign policy tools. The most immediate potential of the EEAS lies in its role in merging the broad toolbox of EU external action. The EEAS also has potential to improve vertical coordination and outreach. In the long-term, incremental changes could contribute to forming a new mindset, both when it comes to the relationship between the EU and its citizens, and to reviewing traditional models of diplomacy. The EEAS still needs recognition as a real diplomatic service both from within the Union and by other actors. Its performance, with tangible deliverables, will be key to its legitimacy and future prospects, as will be communicating the strategies and the outcomes to the wider European public.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Europe
44726. The European Union Training Mission in Somalia: Lessons Learnt for EU Security Sector Reform
- Author:
- Kseniya Oksamytna
- Publication Date:
- 06-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The European Union's mission to contribute to the training of the Somali Security Forces is the first military training mission launched by the EU. Deployed in April 2010, EUTM is nearing the end of its mandate: the training of the recruits will be completed by mid-July 2011. The mission was carried out in close coordination with the US, the African Union and the Ugandan army, and contributed to the EU's visibility in East Africa. However, given the overall feebleness of Somalia's Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and its inability to implement reform, the political effectiveness of the mission is doubtful. In the current context, EUTM should not be extended beyond its original mandate. The EU and other donors should instead support more functional local administrations and make future assistance to the TFG contingent upon tangible progress towards completing transitional tasks, a normalization of political life, and restoring the provision of public services.
- Topic:
- Security and Foreign Aid
- Political Geography:
- Uganda, Africa, United States, Europe, Somalia, and East Africa
44727. The EEAS and the Western Balkans
- Author:
- Eva Gross and Alessandro Rotta
- Publication Date:
- 06-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- This paper analyzes the performance of the EEAS in the Western Balkans to date. It identifies political deadlocks, particularly over Kosovo's status, and the weakening pull of EU membership as a catalyst for reform as the main challenges the EU must address. The paper argues that the EU's first tangible success was the initiation of the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue. In order to maintain the positive momentum this has generated, the EU must improve the coherence between its political and operational instruments, thus increasing its collective political impact vis-à-vis local but also international stakeholders. The authors make three suggestions for maximizing the future impact of the EEAS: continue to invest in political leadership on the part of the HR/VP; connect the EU's global strategic work with regional and local political challenges in order to improve its coordination with its strategic partners; and work to improve the political and operational links between Brussels and the field.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, and Balkans
44728. Democracy in Europe: Politicizing Champions for the European Public Sphere
- Author:
- Matteo Garavoglia
- Publication Date:
- 06-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The democratic deficit in the relationship between European institutions and citizens stems from the lack of a pan-European public sphere where supranational policy-making and national politics can be reconciled. One of the key reasons for the absence of a pan-European public sphere is the extremely limited politicization of European policy-making in the eyes of European citizens in a context whereby Europe is perceived as an entity of "policy without politics". The aim of this paper is to highlight how a politicization of the European policy-making process through a dialectical engagement of progressive and liberal forces with conservative and nationalistic ones can contribute to the development of a pan-European public sphere.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Democratization, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Europe
44729. Afghanistan in Transition: The Security Context Post-Bin Laden
- Author:
- Alessandro Marrone
- Publication Date:
- 06-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- In 2011 NATO initiated the Inteqal process, i.e. the "transition" of security responsibilities from ISAF to the Afghan state and its security forces. The main pillars of this process are the build up of the Afghan Army and Police and the improvement of Afghanistan's governance system at both national and local level. Progress has been made in this respect, although challenges remain. NATO aims to complete the transition by 2014, while reducing its military presence in the country, but a substantial Allied footprint is likely to remain in Afghanistan beyond that date. The death of Bin Laden has brought about little changes to the situation on the ground, while it may have a significant impact on the US's attitude towards peace talks with the Taliban and thus influence the transition timeline and nature.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, Terrorism, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and United States
44730. The European Union and the Reform of the UN Security Council: Toward a New Regionalism?
- Author:
- Natalino Ronzitti and Nicoletta Pirozzi
- Publication Date:
- 05-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The United Nations (UN) is a central reference for the performance of the European Union (EU) on the international stage and one of the most interesting platforms to test the effectiveness of the innovations introduced by the Lisbon Treaty in its foreign and security policies. In particular, the EU's contribution to the reform of the UN Security Council (UNSC) represents a crucial policy and institutional input to assess the Union's capability to act. The new Treaty could allow the EU to play a more assertive role at the SC and pave the way for a new regionalism within the United Nations.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Europe
44731. Striking a Balance Between Norms and Interests in Italian Foreign Policy: The Balkans and Libya
- Author:
- Valérie Vicky Miranda
- Publication Date:
- 05-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- To what extent is foreign policy driven by norms and/or by interests? Considering the main trends of Italian foreign policy after World War II and two case studies, the Balkans and Libya, this paper investigates the role played by norms and interests and the interconnection between the two in Italian foreign policy. In the Balkans, norms and interests have neatly dovetailed: supporting democratization and the rule of law has also meant furthering Italian security and economic interests in the region. By contrast, Libya was the theatre of an essentially interest-driven foreign policy. Nevertheless, the Italian government's response to the Libyan crisis between March and May 2011 has interestingly marked a rupture from the recent past.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Bosnia, Libya, Kosovo, Balkans, North Africa, and Italy
44732. A European Strategy for Democracy, Development and Security for the Mediterranean
- Author:
- Stefano Silvestri
- Publication Date:
- 05-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The European Union urgently has to work out a new strategy towards the Mediterranean and the Middle East. It has to back the democratic transformations of Arab societies, but also assert the need for new cooperation in the field of security so that the inevitable changes do not produce new international crises and do not generate new threats. The EU can take advantage of a favourable situation which, however, may not last long. This is a crucial test for the Union's common foreign and security policy after Lisbon.
- Topic:
- Security, Democratization, and Development
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, and Lisbon
44733. Opting for Second Best in Libya?
- Author:
- Riccardo Alcaro
- Publication Date:
- 05-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The looming stalemate in the Libyan conflict is likely to lead to more civilian casualties, a de facto separation of Libya, the under-use of the country's energy resources, and an increase in illegal activities due to the legal and governance vacuum in the country. In addition, it risks denting NATO's credibility as a security provider. To break the stalemate, the coalition is leaning towards intensifying military operations and/or arming the rebels. Both imply a number of risks and political costs. A way to contain such risks and costs would be for NATO and its partners to re-calibrate the mission so that, alongside military action, the mission would foresee also a national reconciliation process, mediated by an international team. Linking military operations to a credible plan for Libya's political future would improve the odds for Gheddafi's regime to collapse.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, and Oil
- Political Geography:
- United States, Libya, Arabia, and United Nations
44734. Italy's Love Affair with the EU: Between Continuity and Change
- Author:
- Michele Comelli
- Publication Date:
- 04-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Once a renowned Euro-enthusiastic country, Italy has experienced a decrease in public support for European integration. Many are the reasons, including the emergence of a less idealistic vision of the EU, a general disaffection vis-à-vis politics, particularly at the domestic level, and the increasingly more vocal Euroscepticism of some political forces within the centre-right ruling coalition. The current Berlusconi government does not show the same degree of interest for European integration as previous centrist and centre-left governments. This is not to say that Italy's love affair with Europe has come to a bitter end. Italians continue to trust European institutions significantly more than national ones and would like the EU to acquire more competences. In addition, the vocal anti-EU rhetoric of some political forces within the governing coalition, and especially the Northern League, is often not matched by deeds, largely because EU policy-making is generally used as a source of leverage to obtain concessions in other policy domains. Tellingly, the Treaty of Lisbon was speedily ratified by the Italian parliament by unanimous vote - something unthinkable in most EU countries.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Italy, and Lisbon
44735. Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM): Implications for Algeria's Regional and International Relations
- Author:
- Dario Cristiani and Riccardo Fabiani
- Publication Date:
- 04-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Rebranded in 2007, Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) is the latest incarnation of Algerian radical Islamism. Initially focused on attacks with great political resonance against Algerian governmental and military targets, the group has progressively shifted its priorities, alongside its geographical and operational features. In the past few years, the countries of the Sahel region (Mauritania, Malì, Niger, Chad) have been increasingly affected by AQIM's actions. This geographical shift was the result both of a weakening of AQIM within Algeria, due to the tough counter-terrorist measures adopted by the regime, and of the "business opportunities" and the wider operational freedom offered by the Sahelian environment. The aim of this paper is to briefly address a series of questions concerning AQIM's "Sahelization" and its consequences for Algerian foreign policy.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Islam
- Political Geography:
- Algeria, Mali, and Mauritania
44736. Rethinking the EU's Mediterranean Policies Post-1/11
- Author:
- Nathalie Tocci and Jean-Pierre Cassarino
- Publication Date:
- 03-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The revolts sweeping across North Africa and the Middle East in 2011 have shaken long-held truths about the region. Most strikingly, the sustainability of these regimes has proved a chimera. The events in the region and the many truths they uncovered call for a serious rethink in Western policies towards the region. The aim of this paper is to explore what such a rethink might entail for the European Union. Reviewing the European Neighbourhood Policy by revamping the benefits on offer, reconsidering the effective use of conditionality, establishing adequate monitoring mechanisms and engaging with a plethora of partners both within and beyond the region is imperative. Such a review is contingent on the recognition of a reversed hierarchy of priorities, induced by the force of historical events unfolding in the region. To reverse policy priorities is no small feat, considering the entrenched logic that has sustained Euro-Med policies so far. Nonetheless, various dynamics press for a new way of thinking. The proposals contained in this study constitute concrete steps to rethink the EU's Mediterranean policies in line with the fundamental rights and principles which the Union seeks to advance in its external action.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, Arabia, and North Africa
44737. How Israel Can Turn the Unrest in the Middle East into an Opportunity for Peacemaking
- Author:
- Massimiliano Fiore
- Publication Date:
- 03-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Only a few weeks ago, no one could have believed that what the peoples of Tunisia and Egypt accomplished was possible: they defied their dictators and won, causing worldwide euphoria and celebration. Yet, while such activism has inspired fellow Arabs throughout the region, it has been met with fear and trepidation in Israel. Mubarak's downfall, combined with the growing unrest in the Middle East, makes it vital for Israel to recalibrate its strategies toward its neighbouring Arab states. Many political analysts believe that this is the ideal moment for Israel to push hard for resuming the stalled peace process with the Palestinians. Yet it is unrealistic to think that a comprehensive agreement can be reached at this time. While the Israeli-Palestinian peace track is very troubled, the Israeli-Syrian track seems more within reach, and in the vital interests of both countries.
- Topic:
- Peace Studies and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Arabia, Syria, Egypt, and Tunisia
44738. Myanmar: Major Reform Underway
- Publication Date:
- 09-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Six months after the transition to a new, semi-civilian government, major changes are taking place in Myanmar. In the last two months, President Thein Sein has moved rapidly to begin implementing an ambitious reform agenda first set out in his March 2011 inaugural address. He is reaching out to long-time critics of the former regime, proposing that differences be put aside in order to work together for the good of the country. Aung San Suu Kyi has seized the opportunity, meeting the new leader in Naypyitaw and emerging with the conviction that he wants to achieve positive change. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) seems convinced that Myanmar is heading in the right direction and may soon confer upon it the leadership of the organisation for 2014. This would energise reformers inside the country with real deadlines to work toward as they push for economic and political restructuring. Western policymakers should react to the improved situation and be ready to respond to major steps forward, such as a significant release of political prisoners.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Human Rights, Political Economy, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- South Asia, Burma, Southeast Asia, and Myanmar
44739. Partners in Preventive Action: The United States and International Institutions
- Author:
- Paul B. Stares and Micah Zenko
- Publication Date:
- 09-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- With the U.S. military overstretched after a decade of continuous combat operations and Washington facing acute fiscal pressures, the strategic logic of preventive action to reduce the number of foreign crises and conflicts that could embroil the United States in burdensome new commitments has never been more compelling.
- Topic:
- Globalization, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, Peace Studies, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Washington, and Southeast Asia
44740. Libya's year zero: Finding opportunity as a country rebuilds
- Publication Date:
- 09-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- Libya's rebels have pushed the regime of Muammar Qadhafi out of power, and are poised to take complete control of the country. This in itself is a monumental achievement, but it marks only the start of what is likely to be a long and fraught process of rehabilitation. The new leadership must rebuild a state that for decades was run on the whims of an authoritarian leader, determined both to monopolise and to hold on to power. There are few institutions that work, and even fewer that work to the benefit of the general population, so the challenge amounts to little short of building a functioning state from scratch. Views on what form that state should take are as diverse as the regional, ideological and sectarian interests making up its would-be architects, and these stake holders must be persuaded to support the process — or at least not to obstruct it — before it can even begin.
- Topic:
- Development, Oil, Political Economy, and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Libya, Arabia, and North Africa
44741. Organising an investment in China: Prepare for opportunity
- Publication Date:
- 11-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- Foreign companies continue to be attracted by the opportunities offered by China's large and rapidly growing economy. China has a population of over 1.3bn, and the size of the economy is likely to grow to just under US$13trn a year at market exchange rates by 2015. Although GDP per head will still be relatively low by the end of the forecast period, at just under US$10,000 a year, this will represent a substantial improvement from just under US$4,500 in 2010. Significant regional disparities within China will persist. The provinces of the eastern seaboard enjoy standards of living well above the national average. However, there are also markets to be found in inland China, where many large cities are located. To some extent, the size of the population and the pace of economic growth belie the challenges of operating in China. Nationwide distribution networks will increasingly be put in place, but the Chinese market is likely still to be a fragmented one by 2015.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- China
44742. Guinee: Remettre la Transition sur les Rails
- Publication Date:
- 09-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Après l'élection d'Alpha Condé à la présidence en novembre 2010, des élections législatives doivent clôturer une nouvelle étape de la transition politique guinéenne. La récente expérience de politisation violente des ethnicités et le manque de confiance des acteurs politiques dans le dispositif électoral sont des motifs d'inquiétude. Le président Condé a engagé unilatéralement une refonte du système électoral, mais il suscite d'autant plus de méfiance que les perspectives du parti présidentiel pour les législatives sont incertaines. Il n'a prêté que peu d'attention, et bien tard, à la réconciliation et au dialogue avec son opposition, très mobilisée. La Guinée ne peut se permettre ni un bricolage du système électoral ni une nouvelle campagne fondée sur des arguments ethniques. Un accroissement des tensions à l'approche du scrutin pourrait susciter des violences intercommunautaires. Il pourrait aussi offrir une opportunité d'agir à ceux qui, dans l'armée, se satisfont mal d'avoir regagné les casernes. L'attaque lancée le 19 juillet 2011 par des militaires contre la résidence du président confirme la réalité de ce risque. Un véritable accord entre les principaux acteurs politiques sur les modalités des élections législatives est impératif et urgent. Sans une forte implication internationale, les chances de parvenir à un tel accord sont minces.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Democratization, Political Economy, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Africa
44743. Managing Instability on China's Periphery
- Author:
- Daniel Markey, Paul B. Stares, Evan A. Feigenbaum, Scott A. Snyder, John W. Vessey, and Joshua Kurlantzick
- Publication Date:
- 08-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- If past experience is any guide, the United States and China will find themselves embroiled in a serious crisis at some point in the future. Such crises have occurred with some regularity in recent years, and often with little or no warning. Relatively recent examples include the Taiwan Strait crisis of 1996, the accidental bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade in 1999, and the EP-3 reconnaissance plane incident in 2001, as well as several minor naval skirmishes since then. The ensuing tension has typically dissipated without major or lasting harm to U.S.-China relations. With China's rise as a global power, however, the next major crisis is likely to be freighted with greater significance for the relationship than in previous instances. Policymakers in both Washington and Beijing, not to mention their respective publics, have become more sensitive to each other's moves and intentions as the balance of power has shifted in recent years. As anxieties and uncertainties have grown, the level of mutual trust has inevitably diminished. How the two countries manage a future crisis or string of crises, therefore, could have profound and prolonged consequences for the U.S.-China relationship. Given the importance of this relationship to not only the future evolution of the Asia-Pacific region but also to the management of a host of international challenges, the stakes could not be higher.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Israel, and Asia
44744. Human resources in China Prepare for opportunity
- Publication Date:
- 09-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- Foreign companies continue to be attracted by the opportunities offered by China's large and rapidly growing economy. China has a population of over 1.3bn, and the size of the economy is likely to grow to just under US$13trn a year at market exchange rates by 2015. Although GDP per head will still be relatively low by the end of the forecast period, at just under US$10,000 a year, this will represent a substantial improvement from just under US$4,500 in 2010. Significant regional disparities within China will persist. The provinces of the eastern seaboard enjoy standards of living well above the national average. However, there are also markets to be found in inland China, where many large cities are located. To some extent, the size of the population and the pace of economic growth belie the challenges of operating in China. Nationwide distribution networks will increasingly be put in place, but the Chinese market is likely still to be a fragmented one by 2015.
- Topic:
- Demographics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- China
44745. A Summary of the Liveability Ranking: and Overview
- Publication Date:
- 08-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- The concept of liveability is simple: it assesses which locations around the world provide the best or the worst living conditions. Assessing liveability has a broad range of uses. The survey originated as a means of testing whether Human Resource Departments needed to assign a hardship allowance as part of expatriate relocation packages. While this function is still a central potential use of the survey, it has also evolved as a broad means of benchmarking cities. This means that liveability is increasingly used by city councils, organisations or corporate entities looking to test their locations against others to see general areas where liveability can differ.
- Topic:
- Crime, Demographics, Economics, Political Economy, and Social Stratification
44746. Turkey: Ending the PKK Insurgency
- Publication Date:
- 09-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- A surge in violence has dashed plans for a negotiated end to the 27-year-old Kurdistan Workers' Party (Partiya Karkerên Kurdistan, PKK) insurgency. Since Turkey's elections in mid-June, clashes have killed more than 110 people, country-wide ethnic friction has hardened opinion, and the government has started bombing PKK bases and talking about an imminent ground offensive in northern Iraq. The PKK must immediately end its new wave of terrorist and insurgent attacks, and the Turkish authorities must control the escalation with the aim to halt all violence. A hot war and militaristic tactics did not solve the Kurdish problem in the 1990s and will not now. A solution can only lie in advancing the constitutional, language and legal reforms of the past decade that have gone part way to giving Turkish Kurds equal rights. Given the recent violence, returning to a positive dynamic requires a substantial strategic leap of imagination from both sides. Neither should allow itself to be swept away by armed conflict that has already killed more than 30,000 since 1984.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Central Asia, Turkey, and Kurdistan
44747. What Drives States to Support the Development of Productive Sectors? Strategies ruling elites pursue for political survival and their policy implications
- Author:
- Ole Therkildsen and Lindsay Whitfield
- Publication Date:
- 10-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- We know a lot about what kinds of policies are needed to support the development of productive sectors, but much less about why governments pursue these policies and why some governments achieve better outcomes than others. The paper reviews the many but disparate arguments on the comparative political economy of development and presents a conceptual approach that builds on the most convincing insights to date. This provides a framework for analyzing why and how ruling political elites support productive sector development and with what outcomes, and for comparing outcomes across productive sectors within and among countries, regions and continents. The approach builds on three propositions: political survival is the key motivation for ruling elites, and the need to maintain ruling coalitions and winning elections shapes the kinds of policies that political elites choose and how they are implemented, in particular whether ruling elites share a mutual interest with relevant productive entrepreneurs and whether ruling elites are able to create 'pockets of efficiency' in the bureaucracy in charge of implementing the policies.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Political Economy, Political Theory, and Governance
44748. Curb Your Enthusiasm: Israel and Palestine after the UN
- Publication Date:
- 09-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- In diplomatic lexicon, September 2011 is shorthand for a Palestinian statehood bid at the UN, ensuing Israeli and U.S. retaliation and, in fine, a train-wreck. There are legitimate fears about the fallout, but obsession with what will happen at the UN and the disproportionate energy invested in aborting it are getting in the way of clear thinking. This could well produce a cure more lethal than the ailment. Were Palestinian President Abbas to back down, he could decisively discredit his leadership, embolden his foes and trigger unrest among his people; quickly resuming peace talks as an alternative could lead to a breakdown with consequences far graver than anything that effort might induce. The focus should be on shaping a UN outcome that produces tangible gain for the Palestinians in their quest for statehood while providing some reassurance to Israelis, minimises risks of violence or the Palestinian Authority's collapse and enshrines core principles for a two-state solution. With little time remaining, the burden has shifted to the EU to craft this compromise. It has long sought that role. Now it must live up to it.
- Topic:
- Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, and Territorial Disputes
- Political Geography:
- Israel and Arabia
44749. Liberia: How Sustainable Is the Recovery?
- Publication Date:
- 08-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Liberia's October 2011 general and presidential elections, the second since civil war ended in 2003, are an opportunity to consolidate its fragile peace and nascent democracy. Peaceful, free and fair elections depend on how well the National Elections Commission (NEC) handles the challenges of the 23 August referendum on constitutional amendments and opposition perceptions of bias toward the president's Unity Party (UP). The NEC, the government, political parties, presidential candidates, civil society, media and international partners each have roles to play to strengthen trust in the electoral process. They should fight the temptation to treat the elections as not crucial for sustaining the progress made since the civil war. But even after good elections five factors will be critical to lasting peace: a more convincing fight against corruption; deeper commitment to transforming Liberia with a new breed of reform-minded political players; sustained international engagement in supporting this more ambitious transformation; economic development; and regional stability, particularly in Côte d'Ivoire.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, Democratization, Development, Political Economy, and Mass Media
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Liberia
44750. Violence and Politics in Venezuela
- Publication Date:
- 08-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Every half hour, a person is killed in Venezuela. The presence of organised crime combined with an enormous number of firearms in civilian hands and impunity, as well as police corruption and brutality, have entrenched violence in society. While such problems did not begin with President Hugo Chávez, his government has to account for its ambiguity towards various armed groups, its inability or unwillingness to tackle corruption and criminal complicity in parts of the security forces, its policy to arm civilians “in defence of the revolution”, and – last but not least – the president's own confrontational rhetoric. Positive steps such as constructive engagement with Colombia as well as some limited security reform do not compensate for these failures. While the prospect of presidential elections in 2012 could postpone social explosion, the deterioration of the president's health has added considerable uncertainty. In any event, the degree of polarisation and militarisation in society is likely to undermine the chances for either a non-violent continuation of the current regime or a peaceful transition to a post-Chávez era.
- Topic:
- Security, Political Violence, Corruption, and Crime
- Political Geography:
- Latin America and Venezuela