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38701. Democratized Destruction: Global Security in the Hacker Era

Author:
James Hasik and Mark Revor
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The democratized innovations of today's hacker era have a dark side: democratized destruction, underwritten by advanced information technologies, and spread by highly empowered individuals with very undemocratic intent. The breadth, pace, diffusion, and potential for concealment of these advances may be creating new vulnerabilities for the same technologically advanced societies that spawned them. Fortunately, the United States and its allies have substantial experience with this mode of innovation and unique resources for developing countermeasures. In "Democratized Destruction: Global Security in the Hacker Era," Brent Scowcroft Center for International Security Nonresident Senior Fellow James Hasik and Lieutenant Colonel Mark Revor, a 2013-2014 Marine Corps fellow at the Atlantic Council, recommend three courses of action: leveraging capital investments with low marginal cost extensions; monitoring the global progress of open innovation; and supporting domestic grassroots developments in information-intensive systems.

38702. NATO's Cyber Capabilities: Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow

Author:
Jason Healey and Klara Tothova Jordan
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
NATO's central missions of collective defense and cooperative security must be as effective in cyberspace as in the other domains of air, land, sea, and space.

38703. The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership: Big Opportunities for Small Business

Author:
Garrett Workman
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
With Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiations underway, there is an increasing focus on the prospective economic benefits and potential policy changes resulting from an ambitious agreement. While modernizing trade rules will benefit businesses of all sizes on both sides of the Atlantic, TTIP will be especially critical for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) that often struggle with the numerous administrative, legal, and regulatory barriers to exporting that slow down trade and hinder innovation. Given their limited financial and human resources, small businesses stand to gain exponentially from a transatlantic agreement that streamlines regulatory and customs processes.
Political Geography:
United States, America, and Europe

38704. Confidence-Building Measures in Cyberspace: A Multistakeholder Approach for Stability and Security

Author:
Jason Healey, Klara Tothova Jordan, John C. Mallery, and Nathaniel V. V. Youd
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Confidence-building measures (CBMs) are an instrument of international politics, negotiated by and applied between states to strengthen international peace and security by reducing and eliminating the causes of mistrust, fear, misunderstanding, and miscalculations that states have about the military activities of other states.
Political Geography:
Russia, China, and America

38705. The Shale Revolution and the New Geopolitics of Energy

Author:
Robert A. Manning
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The shale revolution, the combination of computer-aided horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing known as “fracking,” already has had a profound multidimensional impact. After the breakthroughs in information technology (IT) and biotechnology, shale may be the most transformational technological change so far in the twenty-first century. This report argues that shale gas and tight oil has: begun to radically shift global energy markets and redraw the global energy map, forty years after the Arab oil embargo; dramatically shifted the outlook for US energy security and our national strategic calculus; altered geopolitics, making the Western Hemisphere—Canada, the United States, Mexico, Brazil—the new center of gravity for oil and gas production; turned the future of oil debate on its head; debate about whether or not “peak oil” has been reached is over. Now the issue is whether or not we are approaching “peak demand;” has altered market economics to slow the deployment of wind, solar, and nuclear energy and a transition to a post-petroleum economy; yet also reduced US greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by displacing coal as a source of electricity; strengthened the US economy with cheap gas prices triggering a resurgence in US manufacturing and; potentially repositioned the United States vis-à-vis the Middle East and Asia.
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Canada, Asia, Brazil, and Mexico

38706. Online Voting: Rewards and Risks

Author:
Peter Haynes
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
In a world of near-infinite computing power, ubiquitous connectivity, cloud-based services, and big data, the fact that the vast majority of countries holds elections using paper ballots appears an anomaly.
Topic:
Government, Science and Technology, and Reform
Political Geography:
United States

38707. The Future of US Extended Deterrence in Asia to 2025

Author:
Robert A. Manning
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
US extended deterrence in Asia, involving the full spectrum from nuclear to conventional capabilities, faces an array of new challenges. Indeed, a dynamic, volatile, and more complex security landscape in the Asia-Pacific and globally has heightened regional security concerns and given deterrence and strategic stability a renewed importance in the period extending to 2025.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Nuclear Weapons, International Security, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
United States, Asia, and Asia-Pacific

38708. Mexico's Energy Reform: Mexico "Ready to Launch"

Author:
David L. Goldwyn, Neil R. Brown, and Megan Reilly Cayten
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Mexico is poised for an energy renaissance. It has ample reserves of oil and natural gas, experience in energy production, promising economic fundamentals, and industrial expertise. In recent decades, Mexico has suffered from declining oil production, insufficient gas supply, and high electricity prices.
Topic:
Emerging Markets, Energy Policy, Oil, and Reform
Political Geography:
Mexico

38709. Avoiding the Blind Alley: China's Economic Overhaul and Its Global Implications

Author:
Daniel H. Rosen
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
PRESIDENT XI JINPING ANNOUNCED a sweeping overhaul for China's economy in November 2013, with pledges to make market forces decisive, treat homegrown and foreign investors with the same laws and regulations, and change the mission statement of the government. The reform program, known as the Decisions plan and presented at the Communist Party leadership's Third Plenum meeting, is comprehensive and marks a turning point in China's modern history. The degree of boldness also indicates that after 35 years of world-beating economic performance, China's development model is obsolete and in need of urgent, not gradual, replacement. To justify the risks, President Xi quoted an impassioned plea for policy modernization by his predecessor Deng Xiaoping: the only way to avoid a dead end – a blind alley – is to deepen reform and opening both at home and with the world.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, and Reform
Political Geography:
China

38710. Implementing Structural Reforms in Abenomics: How to Reduce the Cost of Doing Business in Japan

Author:
Jamal Ibrahim Haidar and Takeo Hoshi
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
Improving the environment for business is an important part of the growth strategy of Abenomics. As the KPI (Key Performance Indicator) for this effort, the Abe Administration aims to improve Japan's rank in the World Bank Doing Business Ranking from the current #15 among high-income OECD countries to one of the top three. This paper clarifies what it takes for Japan to be among top three countries in terms of ease of doing business. By looking at details of the World Bank Doing Business ranking, we identify various reforms that Japan could implement to improve the ranking. Then, we classify the reforms into four groups depending on whether the reform requires legal changes and whether the reform is likely to face strong political resistance. By just doing the reforms that do not require legal changes and are not likely to face strong political opposition, Japan can improve the ranking to 9th. To be in the top 3, Japan would need to implement all the reforms except for those that require changing the laws and are likely to face strong political resistance, even under the unrealistic assumption that the other countries do not reduce the cost of doing business. Thus, in order to be one of the top three countries among OECD countries in terms of ease of doing business, Japan would most likely need to carry out all the reforms identified in this paper.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Reform
Political Geography:
Japan

38711. Countering Sanctions: The Unequal Geographic Impact of Economic Sanctions in North Korea

Author:
Yong Suk Lee
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
This paper examines how an autocratic regime domestically counters the impact of economic sanctions. A stylized model predicts that, as long as non-compliance is not too costly, the autocrat redistributes resources to the more valuable urban area when sanctions increase. Empirically, I examine the case of North Korea. I use the satellite night lights data to create average luminosity for each one minute by one minute cell between 1992 and 2010. I construct a sanctions index that varies based on the international response to North Korea's nuclear pursuit. I find that sanctions increase the urban-rural luminosity gap by 1.07%. Consistent with urban elite capture, Pyongyang, the center of power is best shielded from sanctions followed by province capitals. The hinterlands respond: luminosity near the Chinese border increases with sanctions. Sanctions that fail to change the leader's behavior increase inequality at a cost to the already marginalized hinterlands.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, International Security, Sanctions, and Authoritarianism
Political Geography:
South Korea and North Korea

38712. The Next Epoch in Cloud Computing: Implications for Integrated Research and Innovation Strategy

Author:
John Zysman, Kenji E. Kushida, Jonathan Murray, and Patrick Scaglia
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
The advent of Cloud computing as the new underlying global infrastructure of computing presents distinctive new opportunities and challenges for Europe. Cloud computing is transforming computing resources from a scarce to an abundant resource, driving a wave of commoditization in previously high-end software and hardware. For Europe to gain independence from US-based global scale Cloud providers, our view is that it needs to move towards a distributed model of computing with federated governance. Distributed Cloud means the distribution of computation close to the geographic location of the data and the users, as opposed to the centralized model of today. Our research and innovation strategy recommendations reflect this view.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Infrastructure, and Governance
Political Geography:
Europe

38713. Cloud Computing: From Scarcity to Abundance

Author:
John Zysman, Kenji Kushida, and Jonathan Murray
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
Abstract:
Cloud Computing is a revolution in computing architecture, transforming not only the “where” (location) of computing, but also the “how” (the manner in which software is produced and the tools available for the automation of business processes). Cloud Computing emerged as we transitioned from an era in which underlying computing resources were both scarce and expensive to an era in which the same resources were cheap and abundant. There are many ways to implement Cloud architectures, and most people are familiar with public cloud services such as Gmail or Facebook. However, much of the impact of Cloud Computing on the economy will be driven by how large enterprises implement Cloud architectures for their own private use. Lead users are already combining private and public computing resources into new hybrid delivery models. Cloud architectures are also poised to disrupt the Information Technology (IT) industry, broadly conceived, with a new wave of commoditization. Offerings optimized for high performance in an era of scarcity are giving way to loosely coupled, elastically managed architectures making use of cheap, abundant computing resources today.
Topic:
Markets, Science and Technology, and Infrastructure

38714. Strategies and Public Propositions in Games of Institutional Change, Comparative Historical Cases

Author:
Masahiko Aoki
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
This paper argues that game-theoretic approach is incomplete for institutional studies, because comparative institutions as well as institutional changes involve a possibility of multiple equilibria. In order to solve the common knowledge problem, this paper proposes to unify game theoretic thought with an analysis of public representations/propositions to summarize salient features of the recursive/emergent states of play. From this perspective the paper tries to reconcile differences in three accounts of institutions, endogenous outcome, exogenous rules and constitutive rules accounts. Then, the unified approach is applied to comparative and historical cases of the Tokugawa Japan and the Qing China. Specifically it sheds new light into the coalitional nature of Tokugawa Baku-Han regime nesting the fundamental Samurai-village pact as well as the tendency toward decentralization of political violence and fiscal competence to the provincial level toward the end of the Qing China. From these new historical interpretations, endogenous strategic forces and associated public propositions leading to institutional changes through the Meiji Restoration and the Xinhai Revolution are identified and compared.
Topic:
Nationalism, Political Theory, and Governance
Political Geography:
China

38715. 2014 Financial Security Summit: Rapporteur's Report

Author:
Colby Farber
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
The 2014 Financial Security Summit examined how policymakers, the financial services industry, advocates, and academics can advance new policies and products to make it easier for households to build financial security and to reinvigorate the American Dream.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Governance, and Reform
Political Geography:
United States

38716. Adapting to Plenty: Effects of the Oil and Gas Boom

Author:
Bill White and Leonard Coburn
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
The evolution from energy scarcity to abundance in the United States creates dislocations. Technology, infrastructure, laws, regulations, trade flows, and environmental and security policies developed during American energy deficits must be adapted to cope with its new energy prosperity. Significant improvements in oil and gas technology are leading to production increases outpacing projections. A need for infrastructure development follows energy production, necessitating adaptations. Laws passed in the 1970s during times of energy disruptions require reconsideration in a period of relative plenty. The shift of the United States and Canada from an oil and gas importing region to an exporting region has enormous global implications. Policies need to be readjusted in light of new realities, and the effects of the oil and gas boom in North America will require new thinking by governments, industry and consumers.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Oil, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
United States and North America

38717. Impact Inventing: Strengthening the Ecosystem for Invention-Based Entrepreneurship in Emerging Markets

Author:
Alexander N. Pan
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
Over the past decade, a growing segment of social entrepreneurs and small and growing businesses(SGBs) has emerged that seeks to utilize the power of invention to create products and companies that improve the lives of people living in poverty around the world. We call this class of entrepreneur-looking to develop and disseminate tangible products that will be manufactured and sold at high volumes via market mechanisms-an invention-based entrepreneur.1 ANDE believes that invention-based entrepreneurs are supported or impeded by a number of environmental factors, or the entrepreneurial ecosystem in which they work. While ANDE and our members have made significant progress toward strengthening these entrepreneurial ecosystems in emerging markets, invention-based entrepreneurs have a unique set of needs that differentiates them from typical SGBs. Consequently, we believe we can improve the ecosystem to support the growth of this industry, and thereby unleash the full potential impact of these invention-based entrepreneurs.
Topic:
Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, and Reform
Political Geography:
United States and South Africa

38718. Responding to Trends in the U.S. Electricity Sector

Author:
Dave Grossman (Rapporteur) and Sue Tierney, Chair
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
New federal regulations, changes in fuel prices and trends, the expansion of distributed energy resources, declines in U.S. electricity consumption, and advances in technology are all spurring utilities and regulators to respond and adapt. Discussions of the challenges and opportunities these forces present for the U.S. electricity sector – as well as how the industry and its regulators are adapting – formed the heart of the 2014 Aspen Institute Energy Policy Forum. This report summarizes and organizes some of the key insights from those discussions.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Natural Resources, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
United States

38719. The Affordable Care Act: Affording Two-Generation Approaches Health

Author:
Alan Weil, Shayla Regmi, and Carrie Hanlon
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
The Affordable Care Act (ACA), signed into law by President Barack Obama on March 23, 2010, represents the largest transformation of American health policy in more than a generation. The law redefines how health insurance functions, significantly expands health insurance coverage, and accelerates changes already underway in how health care services are organized and delivered to patients. This transformation creates new opportunities for improving the health and well-being of vulnerable children and their parents. Ascend at the Aspen Institute promotes a two-generation approach to creating opportunity for vulnerable families. In Ascend's two-generation framework, health is an element of family and child well-being in its own right and a supportive factor in achieving the educational, economic, and social assets families need to thrive. This paper describes the changes in health care effected by the ACA and explores the unfinished business of developing a health care system that supports two-generation approaches.
Topic:
Health, Human Welfare, Privatization, and Governance
Political Geography:
America

38720. Fragmentation and Concentration in the New Digital Environment

Author:
Richard P. Adler
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
In 1987, back at the dawn of the Internet age, two studies were published that provided perceptive looks at the evolution of electronic networks and the impact that they would likely have on the way business is conducted in the U.S. and globally. Both studies concluded that rapidly evolving information technologies were helping to break down old hierarchical business structures in favor of new, more decentralized models of economic activity.
Topic:
Economics, Science and Technology, Communications, and Mass Media
Political Geography:
United States

38721. Report of the Ocean Community Strategy Roundtable

Author:
David Monsma
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
In 2013, the Aspen Institute published The Ocean Community Report, a study based on a 2012 roundtable discussion with oceans leaders at Fort Baker, California on the state of ocean conservation, as well as two research papers on marine protection advocacy, policy and management.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Maritime Commerce, and Water
Political Geography:
California

38722. The Weightless Marketplace: Coming to Terms with Innovative Payment Systems, Digital Currencies and Online Labor Markets

Author:
David Bollier
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
The structure and character of commerce has changed dramatically since the arrival of the World Wide Web and various digital technologies, particularly mobile phones and large, interconnected databases. Consumers now have much greater market power and choice. Markets can more easily scale, often globally. Co-production and fluid producer/consumer interactions are routine. Transactions themselves have become far cheaper and more easily consummated.
Topic:
Foreign Exchange, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Science and Technology, Communications, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

38723. Was the ECB's Comprehensive Assessment up to standard?

Author:
Willem Pieter De Groen
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The Comprehensive Assessment conducted by the European Central Bank (ECB) representsa considerable step forward in enhancing transparency ineuro-area banks' balance sheets. The most notable progress since the previous European stress test has been the hamonisation of the definition of non-performing loans and other concepts as well as uncovering hidden losses, which resulted in a €34 billion aggregate capital-chargenet of tax. Despite this tightening,most banks were able to meet the 5.5% common equity tier 1 (CET1) threshold applied in the test, whichsuggests that the large majority of the euro-area banks have improvedtheir financial position sufficiently to no longer constrainthem in financing the economy.Our own estimation based on the detailed results, however,provide a more nuanced picture, with a large numberof the banks still highly leveraged and in many cases unable to meet the regulatory capital requirementsthat will be introduced in the coming years underthe adverse stress test scenario.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Global Recession
Political Geography:
Europe

38724. The EU's Enlargement Agenda — Credibility at stake?

Author:
Erwan Fouéré
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
It is a damning reflection of our times that one of the EU's most successful foreign policy achievements has never been under so much criticism. During the recent elections for the European Parliament, populist eurosceptic parties were in the forefront of those campaigning against the EU's enlargement agenda. Their attempts at equating further enlargement with the dangers of increased immigration from Turkey, the Western Balkans and even other EU member states were bolstered by the leaders of some long-standing member states, such as the UK, openly calling for restrictions on freedom of movement — one of the fundamental pillars of the EU.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Governance, and Reform
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Balkans

38725. Does ASEM work?

Author:
Jacques Pelkmans and Weinian Hu
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This CEPS Policy Brief is based on a larger study for the EEAS and European Commission, written by the same authors in the run-up of the Milan ASEM summit of 16-17 October 2014. The main idea of the study is to assess whether ASEM works and how, by verifying the factual evidence in detail. After all, ASEM has no institutions, no budget and no treaty, whilst dialogues and a loose improvement over time in Asia-Europe relations refer to process much more than genuine 'results'. The stocktaking covers all ASEM activities since the 2006 Helsinki summit. Summit and foreign ministers' declarations and ASEM calendar of activities (and interviews) are used to trace ASEM activities in the three ASEM pillars (political, economic, and peoples-to-peoples/cultural). All the 'regular' ASEM meetings at ministerial and other levels (many of which are only known to relatively few) have been mapped. Also the ASEM working methods, based on the 2000AECF framework and many subsequent initiatives, have been scrutinised, including whether they are actually implemented or not or partially. Such methods refer to how to work together in areas of cooperation (beyond the typical ASEM dialogue), organisation, coordination and ASEM visibility.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Regional Cooperation, and Governance
Political Geography:
Europe and Singapore

38726. Russia's Punitive Trade Policy Measures towards Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia

Author:
Michael Emerson, Denis Cenusa, Tamara Kovziridse, and Veronika Movchan
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
While EU and US sanctions against Russia over its aggression in Ukraine, and Russia's counter-sanctions, are much discussed due to their evident political significance, less attention has been given to Russia's punitive sanctions against the three Eastern European states – Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia – that have signed with the EU Association Agreements (AA), which include Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) provisions. This paper therefore documents these trade policy restrictions and embargoes imposed by Russia, and provides some first indications of their impact. The immediate impact on trade flows, especially for agri-food products, has been substantial, albeit with some leakage through Belarus. The main instrument for the Russian measures has been allegations of non-conformity with Russian technical standards, although the correlation of these allegations with movements in Russia's geopolitical postures makes it obvious that the Russian technical agencies are following political guidelines dressed up as scientific evidence. These measures also push the three states into diversifying their trade marketing efforts in favour of the EU and other world markets, with Georgia already having taken significant steps in this direction, since in its case the Russian sanctions date back to 2006. In the case of Ukraine, Russia's threat to cancel CIS free trade preferences infiltrated trilateral talks between the EU, Ukraine and Russia, leading on 12 September to their proposed postponement until the end of 2015 of the 'provisional' implementation of a large part of the AA/DCFTA. This was immediately followed on 16 September by ratification of the AA/DCFTA by both the Rada in Kyiv and the European Parliament, which will lead to its full and definitive entry into force when the 28 EU member states have also ratified it. However Putin followed the day after with a letter to Poroshenko making an abusive interpretation of the 12 September understanding.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Power Politics, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia

38727. Financing Terror Bit by Bit

Author:
Aaron Brantly
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
Terrorism is highly dependent on cash flows for the purchase of everything from munitions and supplies to domains and pamphlets. Traditionally, one of the more challenging aspects of organizing international terrorist activities is rooted in financial transactions. The transfer of money around the world has, in the last decade, fundamentally changed the way terrorist organizations raise money to support their activities. Digital currencies like e-gold, Bitcoin, Peercoin, and Dodgecoin provide complex yet efficient mechanisms for the transfer of funds, as well as the decentralized collection of donations in a more anonymous manner than conventional banking transactions. There is sufficient evidence to suggest that terrorists are considering and, in limited instances, using digital currencies such as Bitcoin to finance activities. While these tools have gained in popularity, in recent years their expansion into various terrorist organizations has been slow and deliberate and has not matched pace with transnational criminal uses of these same technologies.
Political Geography:
United States

38728. Full Text Issue

Author:
Abdul Basit
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
The rise of ISIS-like terrorist groups in the Syria and Iraq conflicts and their ability to attract foreign fighters has created new challenges for global peace. While the return of these foreign fighters to their home countries is a threat to be monitored, it is imperative to understand the factors luring them to fight in Syria and Iraq to formulate counter-strategies. The desire to live in and defend the so-called 'Islamic state', participate in the 'end times battle', sectarian motivations and the search for an Islamic identity are some of the factors attracting foreign fighters to Iraq and Syria.
Topic:
Islam
Political Geography:
Iraq and Syria

38729. Contesting Buddhist Narratives: Democratization, Nationalism, and Communal Violence in Myanmar

Author:
Matthew J. Walton and Susan Hayward.
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
For the past few years, Myanmar's political transition has been hampered by violence between Buddhists and Muslims. A nation with an ethnically Burman and religiously Buddhist majority, the population also comprises a large minority of Muslims and members of other religions, and includes many different ethnic groups. As such, Myanmar society is complex and innately plural.
Topic:
Political Violence, Ethnic Conflict, Religion, and Political Activism
Political Geography:
Burma and Myanmar

38730. The Asia-Pacific Cooperation Agenda: Moving from Regional Cooperation Toward Global Leadership,

Author:
Charles E. Morrison
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
In the past quarter-century Asia has seen vast changes, including increased economic growth, integration, and liberalization. The Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) process, now marking its 25th anniversary, facilitated these changes through its institution of the first regular meetings of ministers and then leaders. But what role should APEC play in the future? With a continuing diffusion of power, what was once hailed as an imminent "Asian century" is much more likely to be a global one. This international system, however, will have a trans-Pacific core with much of the economic power and potential to provide global leadership for the further development of international norms, rules, and cooperation. Thus, we may be able to refer to an "Asia-Pacific century." Two questions arise: Is North America, with a relatively small share of global population and a declining share of global world product, still relevant? Will the nations on the two sides of the Pacific really be able to use their power effectively to assume global leadership? The answer to the first of these is "yes," and to the second, "it depends."
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Asia

38731. Built-Up Area Change Analysis in Hanoi Using Support Vector Machine Classification of Landsat Multi-Temporal Image Stacks

Author:
Jefferson Fox, Duong Nong, Miguel Castrence, Tomoaki Miura, James Spencer, and Qi Chen
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Vietnam is experiencing one of the greatest urban transitions over the last two decades after the embankment of "Doi Moi" policy in 1986. The urban transition is vividly manifested in social, economic and physical aspects. While the urbanization can boost the industrialization and modernization goals of the country, it can cause adverse impact on natural environment as well as society and economy. To support a sound urban development plan, it is important that data and analysis on urban built-up areas are accurate and timely available. In this study, the Support Vector Machine Classification Algorithm (SVM) was applied to the multi-temporal image stacks of Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) and Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM) from 1993 to 2010 to quantify the changes of built-up areas over three time periods, 1993-2001, 2001-2006, and 2006-2010 and across twelve buffer zones. Our SVM classification algorithm has produced a highly accurate map of land use/land cover change with the overall accuracy of 95%. The study showed that most of the urban expansion occurred in the periods 2001-2006 and 2006–2010. The analysis was strengthened by the analysis of population census and other socio-economic figures. Through out this study, an implicit correlation between the urban growth, the trend of spatial expansion and other relevant geographic and socio-economic factors can be proposed. Result of this study would allow urban planners and decision makers to timely evaluate and adjust accordingly the urban growth and be aware of the sustainable usage of the invaluable natural lands and other environmental, social and economical problems.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
Vietnam

38732. Quantify Spatiotemporal Patterns of Urban Growth in Hanoi Using Time Series Spatial Metrics and Urbanization Gradient Approach

Author:
Jefferson Fox, Duong Nong, Tomoaki Miura, James Spencer, Qi Chen, and Christopher Lepczyk
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
The year of 2010 was the first time in human civilization that the urban population had reached 3.5 billion people or crossed the 50% mark and continued to grow with no sign of slowing down especially for developing countries in Africa and asia (UN,2011). In 1800, only few percent of the world population lived in urban areas, but quickly increased to 14% in 1900 and then 30% in 1950 (platt,1994). Clearly, urban areas have become one of our primary habitats; therefore, urban sustainability is becoming more important than ever.
Political Geography:
Africa and Asia

38733. Economic Analysis of Duck Production Household Farm Level in the Context of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Subtype H5N1 in the Red River Delta, Vietnam

Author:
Chinh C. Tran and John F. Yanagida
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Occurrence of the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza subtype H5N1 usually results in the complete loss of the producer's entire flock due to high mortality rate and stamping out conducted to contain the virus. This study explores the expected economic impacts of HPAI H5N1 on smallholder duck producers in the Red River Delta of Vietnam. A conceptual model is developed to describe how a producer responds at each week of duck production to maximize profit and evaluate expected profits/losses of the producer in light of HPAI H5N1. The results suggests that in the case of no disease occurrence, the optimal time to sell ducks is at week 10 of the production cycle when ducks reach the age of 8 weeks. Maximum profit gained is US$805 for a producer with an average flock size of 794 ducks. However, the producer would suffer serious losses once the disease occurs. The expected investment loss is far higher than the maximum profit received at each production cycle and is estimated to be 3 times higher.
Topic:
Economics, Health, Infectious Diseases, and Food
Political Geography:
Vietnam

38734. Policy Implications for Prevention of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Subtype H5N1 in Conjunction with Risk Factors in the Red River Delta, Vietnam

Author:
Jefferson Fox, Chinh C. Tran, John F. Yanagida, and Sumeet Saksena
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
The challenge is to develop the vaccination program that is more successful in containing and preventing the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza subtype H5N1 from recurrence in the Red River Delta, Vietnam and reducing vaccination costs. This study addresses the tradeoff between the current policy which implements an annual two-round vaccination for the entire geographical area of the Delta and an alternative policy which involves more frequent vaccination in higher probability areas for the disease occurrence within the Delta. The ex-ante analysis framework is used to identify the location of higher probability areas for the alternative policy and evaluate the accuracy of the analysis. The efficacy and cost analysis of vaccination programs are then implemented for the tradeoff between the current and the alternative policies. The ex-ante analysis suggests that the focus areas for the alternative vaccination program include 1137 communes, corresponding to 50.6% of total communes in the Delta and mostly located in the coastal areas to the east and south of Hanoi. The efficacy and cost analyses suggests that the alternative policy would be more successful in reducing the rate of disease occurrence and the costs of vaccination as compared to the current policy.
Political Geography:
Vietnam and United Nations

38735. Perceived Risk of Avian Influenza in Poultry Varies with Urbanization in Vietnam

Author:
Jefferson Fox, Melissa L. Finucane, Sumeet Saksena, Nghiem Tuyen, James H. Spencer, Nguyen Lam, Trinh Dinh Thau, Tran Duc Vien, and Nancy D. Lewis
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is an important public health concern because of its potential to cause widespread morbidity and mortality in humans and poultry and associated devastating economic losses. In this study we examined how perceptions of and response to the risk of HPAI in poultry vary across communes/wards in the north of Vietnam at different levels of urbanization (rural, transitional, urban). We conducted a quantitative household survey with 1073 respondents. Results suggested that the perceived risk of HPAI in poultry was highest in transitional and rural settings. Respondents in these settings were more likely than respondents in urban settings to agree that the process of change (in urbanization, agricultural practices, or natural habitat) increased the likelihood of an outbreak of HPAI in poultry. Compared with others, respondents in transitional areas reported that they do less planning and perceive vaccines to be more effective, while respondents in rural areas reported less perceived ability to separate infected poultry from others. We also found that the inability to respond is not necessarily because of an inability to perceive change but because, rapid and extensive change poses different challenges for poultry management as communes move from rural to transitional to urban settings. Our results suggest that public and animal health campaigns could be tailored in a way that recognizes the needs of poultry raisers in different settings.
Topic:
Health, Infectious Diseases, and Urbanization
Political Geography:
Asia and Vietnam

38736. Role of Urbanization, Land-Use Diversity, and Livestock Intensification in Zoonotic Emerging Infectious Diseases

Author:
Jefferson Fox, Duong Nong, Miguel Castrence, James Spencer, Sumeet Saksena, Nguyen Lam, Tran Duc Vien, Michael Epprecht, Chinh Tran, Melissa Finucane, and Bruce Wilco
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) continue to significantly threaten human and animal health. While there has been some progress in identifying underlying proximal driving forces and causal mechanisms of disease emergence, the role of distal factors is most poorly understood. This article focuses on analyzing the statistical association between highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 and urbanization, land-use diversity and poultry intensification. A special form of the urban transition—peri-urbanization—was hypothesized as being associated with 'hot-spots' of disease emergence. Novel metrics were used to characterize these distal risk factors. Our models, which combined these newly proposed risk factors with previously known natural and human risk factors, had a far higher predictive performance compared to published models for the first two epidemiological waves in Viet Nam. We found that when relevant risk factors are taken into account, urbanization is generally not a significant independent risk factor. However, urbanization spatially combines other risk factors leading to peri-urban places being the most likely 'hot-spots'. The work highlights that peri-urban areas have highest levels of chicken density, duck and geese flock size diversity, fraction of land under rice, fraction of land under aquaculture compared to rural and urban areas. Land-use diversity, which has previously never been studied in the context of HPAI H5N1, was found to be a significant risk factor. Places where intensive and extensive forms of poultry production are collocated were found to be at greater risk
Topic:
Health, Infectious Diseases, and Urbanization
Political Geography:
United States and Asia

38737. From Catching Up to Forging Ahead? China's Prospects in Semiconductors

Author:
Dieter Ernst
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
China's new strategy to upgrade its semiconductor industry (outlined in the "Guidelines to Promote National Integrated Circuit Industry Development," June 24, 2014), seeks to move from catching-up to forging ahead in semiconductors, by strengthening simultaneously China's integrated circuit (IC) design industry and domestic IC foundry services.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, Industrial Policy, Markets, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
China and Asia

38738. Bringing Back the Palestinian Refugee Question

Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Palestinian refugee question, like the refugees themselves, has been politically marginalised and demoted on the diplomatic agenda. Yet, whenever the diplomatic process comes out of its current hiatus, the Palestinian leadership will be able to negotiate and sell a deal only if it wins the support or at least acquiescence of refugees – because if it does not, it will not bring along the rest of the Palestinian population. Refugees currently feel alienated from the Palestinian Authority (PA), which they regard with suspicion; doubt the intentions of Palestinian negotiators, whom they do not believe represent their interests; and, as one of the more impoverished Palestinian groups, resent the class structure that the PA and its economic policies have produced. As a result of their isolation, refugees in the West Bank and Gaza are making demands for services and representation that are reinforcing emerging divisions within Palestinian society and politics. There arguably are ways to address refugee needs, both diplomatic and practical, that are not mutually exclusive with core Israeli interests. This report examines what could be done on the Palestinian side to mitigate the risk that the Palestinian refugee question derails a future negotiation.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Refugee Issues, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

38739. Myanmar: The Politics of Rakhine State

Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The situation in Rakhine State contains a toxic mixture of historical centre-periphery tensions, serious intercommunal and inter-religious conflict with minority Muslim communities, and extreme poverty and under-development. This led to major violence in 2012 and further sporadic outbreaks since then. The political temperature is high, and likely to increase as Myanmar moves closer to national elections at the end of 2015. It represents a significant threat to the overall success of the transition, and has severely damaged the reputation of the government when it most needs international support and investment. Any policy approach must start from the recognition that there will be no easy fixes or quick solutions. The problems faced by Rakhine State are rooted in decades of armed violence, authoritarian rule and state-society conflict. This crisis has affected the whole of the state and all communities within it. It requires a sustained and multi-pronged response, as well as critical humanitarian and protection interventions in the interim.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, Post Colonialism, Religion, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:
Asia and Myanmar

38740. Mali : dernière chance à Alger

Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Alors que le Nord du Mali connait un inquiétant regain de violence, les négociations de paix à Alger constituent une chance unique de sortie de crise. Mais après deux mois de discussions, la paix semble encore loin. Le gouvernement malien et les groupes armés engagés dans les négociations peinent à trouver un terrain d'entente. Des groupes influents et radicaux qui manquent à la table des négociations sont tentés de faire dérailler le processus par la violence. La résolution du conflit passe par l'articulation complexe d'intérêts divergents qui touchent à la sécurité du Sahara, à la nature de l'Etat malien et aux équilibres locaux entre des communautés divisées. Face aux affrontements armés, la tentation est grande d'aller vite et de signer un accord à minima garantissant la sécurité à court terme. La précipitation est mauvaise conseillère. Il faut se donner les moyens et le temps de construire les fondements d'une paix durable.
Topic:
Political Violence, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Africa

38741. The Cyber Extremism Orbital Pathways Model

Author:
Omer Ali Saifudeen
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
The starting premise of this study is that internet-based communications possess unique characteristics that warrant the need to have a discrete pathway model to explain online radicalisation. This online radicalisation pathway model would especially apply to the growing communities of young netizens whose socio-psychological makeup is shaping a ―new normal‖ in the way we exchange information and interact. The proposed Cyber Extremism Orbital Pathways Model (CEOP) describes how online cognitive radicalisation can move towards real-world violent extremism. The model also elucidates the multitude of competing forces in cyberspace that promote or impede such radicalisation and what this means for online counter-radicalisation strategies. The CEOP model is based on inferences made from content and discourse analysis of extremist narratives on the internet and current studies about internet-based communications. The research took into account distinctive factors that made internet-based messaging more persuasive and this includes the effects of crowdsourcing. Finally, the CEOP model suggests how the same persuasive communication strategies used on the internet by extremists can be conversely used to counter online radicalisation.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Science and Technology, Communications, Sociology, and Youth Culture

38742. La Tunisie des frontières (II) : terrorisme et polarisation régionale

Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Depuis le soulèvement populaire de décembre-janvier 2010-2011, la Tunisie surmonte avec succès ses crises politiques, mais le pays semble moins disposé à absorber le choc d'attaques jihadistes plus importantes. Malgré le dialogue national qui a fortement réduit les tensions et a fait débuter l'année 2014 sur une touche optimiste, l'inquiétude grandit de nouveau. Cette appréhension peut s'expliquer par la montée des violences à la frontière algérienne, le chaos libyen et l'avancée de l'islamisme radical au Moyen-Orient, mais également par le discours antiterroriste ambiant. Caisse de résonnance des conflits qui agitent la région, le pays a besoin d'aborder la question terroriste de manière sereine et dépolitisée, malgré les enjeuxinternationaux. La lutte contre le terrorisme et la lutte contre le crime organisé sont indissociables. Le gouvernement gagnerait ainsi à accompagner ses mesures sécuritaires par des mesures économiques et sociales destinées à ramener les populations frontalières dans le giron de l'Etat.
Topic:
Political Violence, Islam, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Arabia

38743. Marijuana Policy in Colorado

Author:
Jeffrey Miron
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
In November 2012, voters in the states of Colorado and Washington approved ballot initiatives that legalized marijuana for recreational purposes. Alaska, Oregon, and the District of Columbia are scheduled to consider similar measures in the fall of 2014, and other states may follow suit in the fall of 2016.
Topic:
War on Drugs, Social Movement, and Law
Political Geography:
United States, Washington, and Colombia

38744. Review of Greenlight Pinellas

Author:
Randal O'Toole
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Under its “Greenlight Pinellas” proposal, the Pinellas Suncoast Transit Authority (PSTA), which serves Pinellas County, FL, wants to switch its major funding source from a property tax to a sales tax at a rate that will more than double its local tax revenues, and use the added money to build a 24-mile light-rail line and expand bus service. This proposal is extremely and unnecessarily expensive given that buses can provide a superior service to light rail, carrying more passengers more comfortably to more destinations at a far lower cost.
Topic:
Infrastructure
Political Geography:
United States

38745. The Role of Mortgage Finance in Financial (In)Stability

Author:
Mark A. Calabria
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Empirical research on the causes of financial crises has grown in recent decades. Early work, such as that by Kaminsky and Reinhart, helped establish the link between asset prices and banking crises. While this initial research focused on equity prices, subsequent research expanded the analysis to include residential property prices. This subsequent research is briefly reviewed here. After establishing the link between residential property prices and banking crises, I discuss the role of various credit policies, both for their impact on property prices and for the stability of the financial system in the face of declining property prices. The role of specific loan characteristics, such as loan-to-value (LTV), will be discussed first, followed by the role of institutional leverage. Policy recommendations conclude.
Topic:
Debt, Global Recession, Financial Crisis, and Governance

38746. Full Text Issue

Author:
Arabinda Acharya
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi, leader of ISIS, which is at centre stage of terrorist movements today, claims to be a descendant of the Prophet Muhammad. This is however deeply contested as the information on him is mostly from various online sources, the genealogy is unverifiable, and there are inconsistencies in publically shared information. A review of Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi's background and atrocities committed by the group under his leadership also show the contrast between ISIS ideology and the real teachings of Islam.
Topic:
Islam
Political Geography:
Iraq and Syria

38747. Nigeria's Dangerous 2015 Elections: Limiting the Violence

Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Nigeria's presidential, parliamentary and state gubernatorial and assembly elections, scheduled for February 2015, will be more contentious than usual. Tensions within and between the two major political parties, competing claims to the presidency between northern and Niger Delta politicians and along religious lines, the grim radical Islamist Boko Haram insurgency and increasing communal violence in several northern states, along with inadequate preparations by the electoral commission and apparent bias by security agencies, suggest the country is heading toward a very volatile and vicious electoral contest. If this violent trend continues, and particularly if the vote is close, marred or followed by widespread violence, it would deepen Nigeria's already grave security and governance crises. The government, its agencies and all other national figures must work urgently to ensure that the vote is not conducted in an explosive situation as this could further destabilise the country.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, Ethnic Government, Governance, Sectarian violence, and Self Determination
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

38748. A Coup Ordained? Thailand's Prospects for Stability

Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
On 22 May, for the twelfth time in Thailand's history, the army seized power after months of political turbulence. This is not simply more of the same. The past decade has seen an intensifying cycle of election, protest and government downfall, whether at the hands of the courts or military, revealing deepening societal cleavages and elite rivalries, highlighting competing notions of legitimate authority. A looming royal succession, prohibited by law from being openly discussed, adds to the urgency. A failure to fix this dysfunction risks greater turmoil. The military's apparent prescription – gelding elected leaders in favour of unelected institutions – is more likely to bring conflict than cohesion, given a recent history of a newly empowered electorate. For the army, buyer's remorse is not an option, nor is open-ended autocracy; rather its legacy, and Thailand's stability, depend on its success in forging a path – thus far elusive – both respectful of majoritarian politics and in which all Thais can see their concerns acknowledged.
Topic:
Political Violence, Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, Governance, and Authoritarianism
Political Geography:
Asia and Thailand

38749. Pakistan's Resurgent Sectarian War

Author:
Arif Rafiq
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Sectarian violence between Sunni Deobandi and Shia Muslims in Pakistan has escalated in recent years. Most of this violence is perpetrated by local networks, but the sectarian phenomenon also has important ties to regional security dynamics and transnational terrorist networks. Despite sporadic state crackdowns, Pakistan's leading Sunni Deobandi sectarian militant groups have been able to maintain a persistent presence thanks in part to reluctance among mainstream Pakistani military and political leaders to directly confront groups that are sometimes seen as serving utilitarian political interests. Despite this negligence, Sunni Deobandi militants have also established linkages with terrorist groups that target the Pakistani state, such as al-Qaeda and the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Rising conflict in the greater Middle East over the past five years has strengthened the sectarian political narrative in Pakistan and emboldened sectarian militant networks on both sides of the conflict.
Topic:
Political Violence, Islam, Religion, Terrorism, Sectarianism, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
Pakistan

38750. How to Spur Afghan Reforms: The Limits and Benefits of Incentives

Author:
Trent Ruder
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Donors have increasingly sought to condition assistance funds for Afghanistan, particularly as a result of inadequate reforms during the Karzai administration. Since its negotiation in 2012, the Tokyo Mutual Accountability Framework has been the basis of most donor incentive decisions on Afghanistan. Donors need to consider who benefits from incentives, how resources and requests align, Afghanistan's capacity to implement reform, and the consequences of success or failure. Donors should both temper their expectations and minimize the linkage between highly politicized issues and incentive programs. Incentive programming is not a magic bullet, but it can help shape dialogue with the new Afghan administration.
Topic:
Corruption, Foreign Aid, Fragile/Failed State, Governance, and Reform
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Tokyo